Survival prediction in terminal cancer patients: a systematic review of the medical literature

Appropriate Timing of End-of-Life Care: A Dutch Policy Analysis and Opportunities for Improvement

Background

The Exceptional Medical Expenses Act (EMEA) guaranteed public financing for the costs of end-of-life care in The Netherlands until 2015. A life expectancy shorter than three months was a prerequisite for a patient to qualify.

Objective

To estimate survival and its potential predictors using the start date of EMEA funded end-of-life care as time origin, and to calculate the ensuing costs.

Design

Retrospective observational study using data retrieved from multiple datasets of the national statistical office Statistics Netherlands (https://www.cbs.nl/en-gb/).

Setting

Included were all adult patients, who received EMEA funded end-of-life care in hospice units in nursing homes and homes for the elderly in The Netherlands between January 1, 2009, and December 31, 2014.

Results

In 40,659 patients (median age 79 years), the distribution of survival was extremely skewed. Median, 95%, and maximum survival times were 15 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 15-15), 219 (210-226), and 2,006 days, respectively. The 90-day and 180-day survival rates were 12.4 (12.1-12.7)% and 6.2 (6.0-6.5)%, respectively. Although age, gender, diagnosis, and start year of end-of-life care were statistically significant independent predictors, clinical significance is limited. End-of-life care was delivered for a total of 1,720,002 days, costing almost 440 million Euros. Fifty-nine percent of the costs was for barely 11% of patients, i.e., those who received end-of-life care for more than 90 days.

Conclusion

The use of life expectancy is a weak basis for the appropriate timing of end-of-life care. Further research should evaluate potential tools to improve the timing of end-of-life care, while using available resources efficiently.

Aggressive anticancer treatment in the last 2 weeks of life

BACKGROUND

There is a concern that terminally ill cancer patients may be aggressively treated due to the rapidly growing possibilities of anticancer treatment. The aim of this study was to evaluate the use of anticancer treatment at the end of life (EoL).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This retrospective study included adult patients with advanced solid cancers who were treated at the Institute of Oncology Ljubljana and died of cancer between January 2015 and December 2019. A multiple logistic regression model was used to assess an association between the aggressiveness of anticancer treatment (i.e. systemic therapy, radiotherapy and surgery) in the last 2 weeks of life and year of death, age at death, sex, prognosis of cancer and enrolment into the specialist palliative care (SPC).

RESULTS

We included 1736 patients in our analysis. Overall, 13.7% of patients were enrolled into the SPC and 14.4% received anticancer treatment in the last 2 weeks of life. The odds of receiving anticancer treatment significantly increased over time [odds ratio (OR) 1.15, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.04-1.27]. There was an increased use of novel systemic therapy (e.g. small-molecule targeted therapy and immunotherapy) at the EoL. Older patients had significantly lower odds to receive anticancer treatment in the last 2 weeks of life as compared to younger patients (OR 0.96, 95% CI 0.95-0.98). As compared to patients receiving only a standard oncology care, those also enrolled into the SPC had significantly lower odds for anticancer treatment in the last 2 weeks of life (OR 0.22, 95% CI 0.12-0.43).

CONCLUSIONS

Terminally ill cancer patients have increased odds for receiving anticancer treatment, especially novel systemic therapies, in the last 2 weeks of life. Younger patients and those not enrolled into the SPC are at particular risk for anticancer treatment at the EoL.

Psychometric Properties of the Japanese Version of the Edmonton Functional Assessment Tool 2

CONTEXT

Physical symptoms such as pain and cancer-related fatigue limit physical function and activities of daily living among patients with terminal cancer, which can lead to a decline in quality of life. Therefore, comprehensive functional impairments should be evaluated to determine the progression of the disease and the effectiveness of palliative treatment.

OBJECTIVE

To validate the psychometric properties of the Japanese version of the Edmonton Functional Assessment Tool 2 (EFAT2-J).

METHODS

We developed a Japanese version of the EFAT-2 in accordance with international guidelines. To verify the reliability and validity of the EFAT2-J, patients were evaluated by a physiotherapist and a nurse separately, and correlations with existing evaluation scales for physical function, physical symptoms, and quality of life were analyzed, respectively. The significance level was set at 5%.

RESULTS

Twenty patients participated in the reliability measurement. The average EFAT2-J scores were 7.95 ± 4.12 for physical therapists and 7.20 ± 4.23 for nurses, and the intraclass correlation coefficient was 0.95. The weighted kappa coefficient (κ) for each item was 0.57-1.00. Fifty-five patients participated in the validity measurement. The EFAT2-J showed significant correlations with Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group Performance Status and the Karnofsky Performance Scale, Barthel Index, and the European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer Quality of Life Questionnaire-Core 15-Palliative Care sub-item "physical function."

CONCLUSION

These results indicate that the EFAT2-J has robust psychometric properties and is useful for evaluating physical function in patients with terminal cancer, and thus may be an acceptable clinical instrument in research and practice.

Usefulness of the Palliative Prognostic Index in Predicting Prognosis when Considering the Transition from Hospital to Home Care in Patients with Terminal Stage Cancer

BACKGROUND

No accurate prognostic tool is available for patients with cancer who spend their final days at home. In this study, we examined whether performance status (PS) and the palliative prognostic index (PPI), a well-known prognostic tool in palliative care units, could be used to predict prognosis in the home care setting at the time of intervention by home physicians.

SUBJECTS AND METHODS

Using medical records, we conducted a retrospective analysis of 132 patients who were referred to the Home Clinic Naginoki for home care for terminal stages of carcinoma in situ. Based on the status at the time of the first visit, the PPI-Low group was defined as those scoring six or below and the PPI-High group as those scoring greater than six.

RESULTS

The PPI-high group had a significantly poorer prognosis within 21 days than the PPI-low group (21-day-OS; Low 71.4% vs. High 13.2%; p<0.001). The Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) PS alone predicted better prognosis in the group with PS of one or two (21-day survival 90.1%), and the PPI score further significantly stratified the prognosis for patients with PS three or four, with a trend toward poor prognosis (p ≤ 0.005).

CONCLUSION

ECOG PS 1 or 2 has a favorable prognosis and that using PPI in ECOG PS 3 or 4 leads to a more accurate prognosis prediction. PPI evaluated during the hospital-based treatment of patients with terminal cancer can also be used to predict prognosis if the patient is transitioned to a home care environment.

Endocrine treatment near the end of life among older women with metastatic breast cancer: a nationwide cohort study

Background

The appropriate time to discontinue chemotherapy at the end of life has been widely discussed. In contrast, few studies have investigated the patterns of endocrine treatment near death. In this study, we aimed to investigate the end-of-life endocrine treatment patterns of older women with metastatic breast cancer and explore characteristics associated with treatment.

Methods

A retrospective cohort study of all older women (age ≥65 years) with hormone receptor-positive breast cancer who died in Sweden, 2016 - 2020. We used routinely collected administrative and health data with national coverage. Treatment initiation was defined as dispensing during the last three months of life with a nine-month washout period, while continuation and discontinuation were assessed by previous use during the same period. We used log-binomial models to explore factors associated with the continuation and initiation of endocrine treatments.

Results

We included 3098 deceased older women with hormone receptor-positive breast cancer (median age 78). Overall, endocrine treatment was continued by 39% and initiated by 5% and of women during their last three months of life, while 31% discontinued and 24% did not use endocrine treatment during their last year of life. Endocrine treatment continuation was more likely among older and less educated women, and among women who had multi-dose drug dispensing, chemotherapy, and CDK4/6 use. Only treatment-related factors were associated with treatment initiation.

Conclusion

More than a third of women with metastatic breast cancer continue endocrine treatments potentially past the point of benefit, whereas late initiation is less frequent. Further research is warranted to determine whether our results reflect overtreatment at the end of life once patients' preferences and survival prognosis are considered.

Survival Prediction After Transarterial Chemoembolization for Hepatocellular Carcinoma: a Deep Multitask Survival Analysis Approach

The accurate prediction of postoperative survival time of patients with Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage B hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is important for postoperative health care. Survival analysis is a common method used to predict the occurrence time of events of interest in the medical field. At present, the mainstream survival analysis models, such as the Cox proportional risk model, should make strict assumptions about the potential random process to solve the censored data, thus potentially limiting their application in clinical practice. In this paper, we propose a novel deep multitask survival model (DMSM) to analyze HCC survival data. Specifically, DMSM transforms the traditional survival time prediction problem of patients with HCC into a survival probability prediction problem at multiple time points and applies entropy regularization and ranking loss to optimize a multitask neural network. Compared with the traditional methods of deleting censored data and strong hypothesis, DMSM makes full use of all the information in the censored data but does not need to make any assumption. In addition, we identify the risk factors affecting the prognosis of patients with HCC and visualize the importance of ranking these factors. On the basis of the analysis of a real dataset of patients with BCLC stage B HCC, experimental results on three different validation datasets show that the DMSM achieves competitive performance with concordance index of 0.779, 0.727, and 0.780 and integrated Brier score (IBS) of 0.172, 0.138, and 0.135, respectively. Our DMSM has a comparatively small standard deviation (0.002, 0.002, and 0.003) for IBS of bootstrapping 100 times. The DMSM we proposed can be utilized as an effective survival analysis model and provide an important means for the accurate prediction of postoperative survival time of patients with BCLC stage B HCC.

Development and external validation of a predictive multivariable model for last-weeks survival of advanced cancer patients in the palliative home care setting (PACS)

PURPOSE

Various prognostic indexes have been proposed to improve physicians' ability to predict survival time in advanced cancer patients, admitted to palliative care (PC) with a survival probably to a few weeks of life, but no optimal score has been identified. The study aims therefore to develop and externally validate a new multivariable predictive model in this setting.

METHODS

We developed a model to predict short-term overall survival in cancer patients on the basis of clinical factors collected at PC admission. The model was developed on 1020 cancer patients prospectively enrolled to home palliative care at VIDAS Milan, Italy, between May 2018 and February 2020 and followed-up to June 2020, and validated in two separate samples of 544 home care and 247 hospice patients.

RESULTS

Among 68 clinical factors considered, five predictors were included in the predictive model, i.e., rattle, heart rate, anorexia, liver failure, and the Karnofsky performance status. Patient's survival probability at 5, 15, 30 and 45 days was estimated. The predictive model showed a good calibration and moderate discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve between 0.72 and 0.79) in the home care validation set, but model calibration was suboptimal in hospice patients.

CONCLUSIONS

The new multivariable predictive model for palliative cancer patients' survival (PACS model) includes clinical parameters routinely at patient's admission to PC and can be easily used to facilitate immediate and appropriate short-term clinical decisions for PC cancer patients in the home setting.

Predictors of postoperative performance status after surgical management of infratemporal fossa malignancies

Infratemporal fossa (ITF) tumors are difficult to access surgically due to anatomical constraints. Moreover, aggressive ITF carcinomas and sarcomas necessitate aggressive treatment strategies that, along with tumor-related symptoms, contribute to decreases in patient performance status. To assess factors that predict postoperative performance in patients undergoing surgery for ITF tumors. We reviewed medical records for all patients surgically treated for an ITF malignancy between January 1, 1999, and December 31, 2017, at our institution. We collected patient demographics, preoperative performance, tumor stage, tumor characteristics, treatment modalities, pathological data, and postoperative performance data. The 5-year survival rate was 62.2%. Higher preoperative Karnofsky Performance Status (KPS) score (n = 64; p < 0.001), short length of stay (p = 0.002), prior surgery at site (n = 61; p = 0.0164), and diagnosis of sarcoma (n = 62; p = 0.0398) were predictors of higher postoperative KPS scores. Percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy (PEG) (n = 9; p = 0.0327), and tracheostomy tube placement (n = 20; p = 0.0436) were predictors of lower postoperative KPS scores, whereas age at presentation (p = 0.72), intracranial tumor spread (p = 0.8197), and perineural invasion (n = 40; p = 0.2195) were not. Male patients and patients with carcinomas showed the greatest decreases in KPS scores between pretreatment and posttreatment. Higher preoperative KPS score and short length of stay were the best predictors of higher postoperative KPS scores. This work provides treatment teams and patients with better information on outcomes for shared decision-making.

Prediction Accuracy Between Terminally Ill Patients' Survival Length and the Estimations Made From Different Medical Staff, a Prospective Cohort Study

Background: Previous reports suggested the clinical predictions of survival (CPS) and prognostic scores had similar accuracy in patients with days to weeks of life. Objective: We aimed to evaluate and compare the accuracy of CPS by attending physicians, residents, and nurses in an acute palliative care unit at a medical center. Methods: This was a 1-year prospective cohort study. Survival prediction was made within 3 days after patients' admission and re-evaluated every week until patients' discharge or death. Associated factors of accurate survival predictions were also explored by multivariate logistic regression. Results: A total of 179 inpatients were recruited and 115 of them were included in this analysis. The mean age of participants was 72.9 years and the average length of actual survival was 11.5 ± 12.0 days. For patients with survival within 30 days, the medical staff tended to overestimate their life span. The predictions made by physicians and nurses showed much closer to actual survival length through repeated estimations. Patients with metastatic cancer (odds ratio: OR 2.77, 95% CI 1.23-6.22) or cognitive impairment (OR 2.39, 95% CI 1.12-5.11) had higher associations with accurate CPS. Poor performance status of ECOG (OR 1.82, 95% CI 1.09-3.02) and dysphagia (OR 2.01, 95% CI 1.07-3.77) were significant predictors for accurate CPS in patients with the survival of less than 2 weeks. Conclusions: The accuracy of CPS between different medical staff did not reveal significant differences in the study. The importance of re-evaluation for patients' survival length in clinical practice is worthy of attention.

Demystifying Prognosis : Understanding the Science and Art of Prognostication

The science of prognostication is emerging as a vital part of providing goal concordant patient care. Historically, modern medicine has tended to shy away from approaching prognostication as a core clinical skill, and prognosis as something to be shared directly with the patient. In recent years however, the medical field's shift towards a focus on patient autonomy and more openness in matters regarding end of life has propelled the study of prognostication into a more essential component of patient centered care. This calls for more emphasis on teaching the science of prognosis and the skill of prognostication as a core part of modern medical education. The following chapter aims to delve into the science of prognostication, explore the methods of formulating a prognosis, and discuss issues surrounding the communication of prognosis.

Quercetin Improved Muscle Mass and Mitochondrial Content in a Murine Model of Cancer and Chemotherapy-Induced Cachexia

A cachexia diagnosis is associated with a doubling in hospital stay and increased healthcare cost for cancer patients and most cachectic patients do not survive treatment. Unfortunately, complexity in treating cachexia is amplified by both the underlying malignancy and the anti-cancer therapy which can independently promote cachexia. Quercetin, an organic polyphenolic flavonoid, has demonstrated anti-inflammatory and antioxidant properties with promise in protecting against cancer and chemotherapy-induced dysfunction; however, whether quercetin is efficacious in maintaining muscle mass in tumor-bearing animals receiving chemotherapy has not been investigated. C26 tumor-bearing mice were given 5-fluorouracil (5FU; 30 mg/kg of lean mass i.p.) concomitant with quercetin (Quer; 50 mg/kg of body weight via oral gavage) or vehicle. Both C26 + 5FU and C26 + 5FU + Quer had similar body weight loss; however, muscle mass and cross-sectional area was greater in C26 + 5FU + Quer compared to C26 + 5FU. Additionally, C26 + 5FU + Quer had a greater number and larger intermyofibrillar mitochondria with increased relative protein expression of mitochondrial complexes V, III, and II as well as cytochrome c expression. C26 + 5FU + Quer also had increased MFN1 and reduced FIS1 relative protein expression without apparent benefits to muscle inflammatory signaling. Our data suggest that quercetin protected against cancer and chemotherapy-induced muscle mass loss through improving mitochondrial homeostatic balance.

Performance status and survival in cancer patients undergoing palliative care: retrospective study

OBJECTIVE

Accurate forecasting the life expectancy of patients with cancer is adamantly needed for adequate decision-making in the Palliative Care Services (PCS) context. Nonetheless, physician forecast is often inaccurate, hindering end of life (EOL) decisions. In this study, we determined the prognostic value of two oncology performance status (PS) scales at first referral to PCS.

METHODS

Retrospective analysis of 6310 patients consecutively admitted to PCS at the Instituto Nacional de Cancerología (2012-2018). Demographic and PS (as per Karnofsky (KPS) and Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) scales) information was retrieved and the overall survival of patients calculated according to PS. Concordance of each scale was assessed in the overall population and according to age.

RESULTS

Overall survival was significantly associated with ECOG and KPS (p<0.05). A total of 2278 (36.1%) and 2296 (36.4%) patients were referred to PCS in their last month of life and most had a poor PS (ECOG 3-4, 59.1%; KPS <50, 54.4%). Both PS scales had high concordance in the overall population (K=0.6189 (KPS); K=0.6058 (ECOG)), but a higher value was observed among the subgroup of patients aged ≥65 (K=0.6339 (KPS); 0.6252 (ECOG)). Concordance was lowest among younger (≤39) patients.

CONCLUSIONS

PS as assessed by the most widely known tools is strongly associated with overall survival of patients with cancer attending PCS. No large differences were observed among the scales, though results slightly favour the use of KPS. Early referral to PCS and accurate survival prediction can aid in relevant decision-making for patients approaching EOL.

Fluorescence in situ hybridization detection of chromosome 7 and/or 17 polysomy as a prognostic marker for cholangiocarcinoma

Cholangiocarcinoma (CCA) is highly endemic in the Northeast Thailand. Recently, chromosome aberrations provided new insights into pathogenesis of CCA. Therefore, chromosome aberration might be used as a prognostic factor and therapeutic planning of this cancer. This aim of this study is to examine the correlation between an increase of chromosome 7 (C7) and/or 17 (C17) copy number variants (CNVs) with clinicopathological data and the overall survival time (OS) of CCA patients using fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) assays. C7 and C17 CNVs were examined using FISH form 157 formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE) tissues of CCA patients from Khon Kaen, Thailand between 2011 and 2015. OS was visualized using Kaplan-Meier plot. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to determine the ability of the clinicopathological parameters to predict OS. C17 > trisomy (odd ratio, 6.944, P < 0.001), C7/17 trisomy (odd ratio; 4.488, P = 0.019), and C7/17 > trisomy (odd ratio; 6.723, P < 0.001) were independently predictive factors for lymph node metastasis. Interestingly, an increase of C7, C17, and C7/17 CNVs in both trisomy and > trisomy was independently correlated with short median OS. An increased of C7 and/or 17 have a potential as a poor prognostic marker in CCA patients.

Weakly Supervised Deep Ordinal Cox Model for Survival Prediction From Whole-Slide Pathological Images

Whole-Slide Histopathology Image (WSI) is generally considered the gold standard for cancer diagnosis and prognosis. Given the large inter-operator variation among pathologists, there is an imperative need to develop machine learning models based on WSIs for consistently predicting patient prognosis. The existing WSI-based prediction methods do not utilize the ordinal ranking loss to train the prognosis model, and thus cannot model the strong ordinal information among different patients in an efficient way. Another challenge is that a WSI is of large size (e.g., 100,000-by-100,000 pixels) with heterogeneous patterns but often only annotated with a single WSI-level label, which further complicates the training process. To address these challenges, we consider the ordinal characteristic of the survival process by adding a ranking-based regularization term on the Cox model and propose a weakly supervised deep ordinal Cox model (BDOCOX) for survival prediction from WSIs. Here, we generate amounts of bags from WSIs, and each bag is comprised of the image patches representing the heterogeneous patterns of WSIs, which is assumed to match the WSI-level labels for training the proposed model. The effectiveness of the proposed method is well validated by theoretical analysis as well as the prognosis and patient stratification results on three cancer datasets from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA).

A simple test-based frailty index to predict survival among cancer patients with an unplanned hospitalization: An observational cohort study

BACKGROUND

Frailty is a state of increased vulnerability to stressors, and predicts risk of adverse outcomes, such as mortality. Frailty can be defined by a frailty index (FI) using an accumulation of deficits approach. An FI comprised of 20 items derived from our previously studied test-based frailty index (TBFI) and an additional 33 survey-based elements sourced from the standard CGA was developed to evaluate if predictive validity of survival was improved.

METHODS

One hundred eighty-nine cancer patients during acute hospitalization were consented between September 2018 and May 2019. Frailty scores were calculated, and patients were categorized into four groups: non-frail (0-0.2), mildly frail (0.2-0.3), moderately frail (0.3-0.4), and severely frail (>0.4). Patients were followed for 1-year to assess FI and TBFI prediction of survival. Area under the curve (AUC) statistics from ROC analyses were compared for the FI versus TBFI.

RESULTS

Increasing frailty was similarly associated with increased risk of mortality (HR, 4.5 [95% CI, 2.519-8.075] and HR, 4.1 [95%CI, 1.692-9.942]) and the likelihood of death at 6 months was about 11-fold (odds ratio, 10.9 [95% CI, 3.97-33.24]) and 9.73-fold (95% CI, 2.85-38.50) higher for severely frail patients compared to non-frail patients for FI and TBFI, respectively. This association was independent of age and type of cancer. The FI and TBFI were predictive of survival for older and younger cancer patients with no significant differences between models in discriminating survival (FI AUC, 0.747 [95% CI, 0.6772-0.8157] and TBFI AUC, 0.724 [95% CI, 0.6513-0.7957]).

CONCLUSIONS

The TBFI was predictive of survival, and the addition of an in-person assessment (FI) did not greatly improve predictive validity. Increasing frailty, as measured by a TBFI, resulted in a meaningfully increased risk of mortality and may be well-suited for screening of hospitalized cancer patients.

Advanced cancer is also a heart failure syndrome: a hypothesis

We present the hypothesis that advanced stage cancer is also a heart failure syndrome. It can develop independently of or in addition to cardiotoxic effects of anti-cancer therapies. This includes an increased risk of ventricular arrhythmias. We suggest the pathophysiologic link for these developments includes generalized muscle wasting (i.e. sarcopenia) due to tissue homeostasis changes leading to cardiac wasting associated cardiomyopathy. Cardiac wasting with thinning of the ventricular wall increases ventricular wall stress, even in the absence of ventricular dilatation. In addition, arrhythmias may be facilitated by cellular wasting processes affecting structure and function of electrical cells and conduction pathways. We submit that in some patients with advanced cancer (but not terminal cancer), heart failure therapy or defibrillators may be relevant treatment options. The key points in selecting patients for such therapies may be the predicted life expectancy, quality of life at intervention time, symptomatic burden, and consequences for further anti-cancer therapies. The cause of death in advanced cancer is difficult to ascertain and consensus on event definitions in cancer is not established yet. Clinical investigations on this are called for. Broader ethical considerations must be taken into account when aiming to target cardiovascular problems in cancer patients. We suggest that focused attention to evaluating cardiac wasting and arrhythmias in cancer will herald a further evolution in the rapidly expanding field of cardio-oncology.

Advanced cancer is also a heart failure syndrome: a hypothesis

We present the hypothesis that advanced stage cancer is also a heart failure syndrome. It can develop independently of or in addition to cardiotoxic effects of anti-cancer therapies. This includes an increased risk of ventricular arrhythmias. We suggest the pathophysiologic link for these developments includes generalized muscle wasting (i.e. sarcopenia) due to tissue homeostasis changes leading to cardiac wasting associated cardiomyopathy. Cardiac wasting with thinning of the ventricular wall increases ventricular wall stress, even in the absence of ventricular dilatation. In addition, arrhythmias may be facilitated by cellular wasting processes affecting structure and function of electrical cells and conduction pathways. We submit that in some patients with advanced cancer (but not terminal cancer), heart failure therapy or defibrillators may be relevant treatment options. The key points in selecting patients for such therapies may be the predicted life expectancy, quality of life at intervention time, symptomatic burden, and consequences for further anti-cancer therapies. The cause of death in advanced cancer is difficult to ascertain and consensus on event definitions in cancer is not established yet. Clinical investigations on this are called for. Broader ethical considerations must be taken into account when aiming to target cardiovascular problems in cancer patients. We suggest that focused attention to evaluating cardiac wasting and arrhythmias in cancer will herald a further evolution in the rapidly expanding field of cardio-oncology.

Factors influencing length of survival in ambulatory palliative care - a cross sectional study based on secondary data

BACKGROUND

Quality of life and patient self-determination are key elements in successful palliative care. To achieve these goals, a robust prediction of the remaining survival time is useful as it can provide patients and their relatives with information for individual goal setting including appropriate priorities. The Aim of our study was to assess factors that influence survival after enrollment into ambulatory palliative care.

METHODS

In this cross-sectional, multicenter study (n = 14 study centers) clinical records of all palliative care patients who were treated in 2017 were extracted and underwent statistical analysis. The main outcome criterion was the association of survival time with clinical characteristics such as age, type of disease, symptoms and performance status.

RESULTS

A total of 6282 cases were evaluated. Median time of survival was 26 days (95 % CI: 25-27 days). The strongest association for an increased hazard ratio was found for the following characteristics: moderate/severe weakness (aHR: 1.91; 95 % CI: 1.27-2.86) Karnofsky score 10-30 (aHR: 1.80; 95 % CI: 1.67-1.95), and age > 85 (aHR: 1.50; 95 % CI: 1.37-1.64). Surprisingly, type of disease (cancer vs. non-cancer) was not associated with a change in survival time (aHR: 1.03; 95 % CI: 0.96-1.10).

CONCLUSIONS

In this cross-sectional study, the most relevant predictor for a short survival time in specialized ambulatory palliative care was the performance status while type of disease was irrelevant to survival.

The Effect of Wheel Exercise on Functional Indices of Cachexia in Tumor-bearing Mice

INTRODUCTION

Cancer-related fatigue and muscle wasting have received significant attention over the last few decades with the goal of establishing interventions that can improve cancer patient life quality and survival. Increased physical activity has shown to reduce cancer-associated fatigue and has been proposed as a promising therapeutic to attenuate cancer-induced wasting. However, significant gaps remain in our understanding of how physical activity affects the compositional and functional changes that initiate muscle wasting. The purpose of the current study was to determine the effect of wheel exercise on body composition and functional indices of cancer cachexia before the development of significant wasting.

METHODS

Thirteen-week-old male Apc (MIN) and C57BL/6 (B6) mice were given free wheel access (W) or a locked wheel (Sed) for 5 wk.

RESULTS

Wheel activity was reduced in the MIN compared with B6; however, wheel access increased complex II expression in isolated skeletal muscle mitochondria regardless of genotype. Wheel access had no effect on tumor burden or plasma interleukin-6 in the MIN. MIN-W increased body weight and lean mass compared with MIN-Sed, and there was a direct correlation between wheel distance and lean mass change. MIN-W increased grip strength and treadmill time to fatigue compared with MIN-Sed. Within MIN-W mice, skeletal muscle fatigability was only improved in high runners (>60 min·d).

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that there were therapeutic benefits of increased activity related to body composition, behavior, and whole-body function that were not dependent on exercise duration; however, there was an exercise threshold needed to improve skeletal muscle fatigability in tumor-bearing mice. Interestingly, wheel access was able to improve compositional and functional outcomes without mitigating tumor number or size.

Clinical oncology research; Review on contemporary methodology standards

Evaluation of novel treatments through clinical trials remains the backbone of oncological clinical research, but only a minor portion have been tested in Phase III trials. The continued publication of underpowered trials provides an ongoing need for meta-analyses to detect clinically significant outcomes. Although tumor relapse and survival are important issues and easily measured outcomes in trials, they are often not the most relevant indicators for treatment success. As diagnostic technologies and treatments continue to advance, methodologies defining high quality studies have been established, but still enthusiasm to adopt novel technologies that leads to studies holding well-described bias that do not aid the rational use of the studied test. Global awareness of such bias and standard research methodology is the clue toward iconic studies giving rational supporting novel cancer treatments and patients' support.

A non-lab nomogram of survival prediction in home hospice care patients with gastrointestinal cancer

BACKGROUND

Patients suffering from gastrointestinal cancer comprise a large group receiving home hospice care in China, however, little is known about the prediction of their survival time. This study aimed to develop a gastrointestinal cancer-specific non-lab nomogram predicting survival time in home-based hospice.

METHODS

We retrospectively studied the patients with gastrointestinal cancer from a home-based hospice between 2008 and 2018. General baseline characteristics, disease-related characteristics, and related assessment scale scores were collected from the case records. The data were randomly split into a training set (75%) for developing a predictive nomogram and a testing set (25%) for validation. A non-lab nomogram predicting the 30-day and 60-day survival probability was created using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) Cox regression. We evaluated the performance of our predictive model by means of the area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and calibration curve.

RESULTS

A total of 1618 patients were included and divided into two sets: 1214 patients (110 censored) as training dataset and 404 patients (33 censored) as testing dataset. The median survival time for overall included patients was 35 days (IQR, 17-66). The 5 most significant prognostic variables were identified to construct the nomogram among all 28 initial variables, including Karnofsky Performance Status (KPS), abdominal distention, edema, quality of life (QOL), and duration of pain. In training dataset validation, the AUC at 30 days and 60 days were 0.723 (95% CI, 0.694-0.753) and 0.733 (95% CI, 0.702-0.763), respectively. Similarly, the AUC value was 0.724 (0.673-0.774) at 30 days and 0.725 (0.672-0.778) at 60 days in the testing dataset validation. Further, the calibration curves revealed good agreement between the nomogram predictions and actual observations in both the training and testing dataset.

CONCLUSION

This non-lab nomogram may be a useful clinical tool. It needs prospective multicenter validation as well as testing with Chinese clinicians in charge of hospice patients with gastrointestinal cancer to assess acceptability and usability.

Oxygen use and survival in patients with advanced cancer and low oxygen saturation in home care: a preliminary retrospective cohort study

Background

The role of oxygen therapy in end-of-life care for patients with advanced cancer is incompletely understood. We aimed to evaluate the association between oxygen use and survival in patients with advanced cancer and low oxygen saturation in home care.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective cohort study at a primary care practice in suburban Tokyo. Adult patients in home care with advanced cancer demonstrating first low oxygen saturation (less than 90%) detected in home visits were consecutively included in the study. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to investigate the effect of oxygen use on overall survival and survival at home, adjusted for systolic blood pressure, decreased level of consciousness, dyspnea, oral intake, performance status, and cardiopulmonary comorbidity.

Results

Of 433 identified patients with advanced cancer, we enrolled 137 patients (oxygen use, n = 35; no oxygen use, n = 102) who developed low oxygen saturation. In multivariable analysis, the adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of oxygen use was 0.68 (95% confidence interval 0.39–1.17) for death and 0.70 (0.38–1.27) for death at home. In patients with dyspnea, the HR was 0.35 (0.13–0.89) for death and 0.33 (0.11–0.96) for death at home; without dyspnea, it was 1.03 (0.49–2.17) for death and 0.84 (0.36–1.96) for death at home.

Conclusions

Oxygen use was not significantly associated with survival in patients with advanced cancer and low oxygen saturation, after adjusting for potential confounders. It may not be necessary to use oxygen for prolongation of survival in such patients, particularly in those without dyspnea.

Distinct cachexia profiles in response to human pancreatic tumours in mouse limb and respiratory muscle

BACKGROUND

Cancer cachexia is a life-threatening metabolic syndrome that causes significant loss of skeletal muscle mass and significantly increases mortality in cancer patients. Currently, there is an urgent need for better understanding of the molecular pathophysiology of this disease so that effective therapies can be developed. The majority of pre-clinical studies evaluating skeletal muscle's response to cancer have focused on one or two pre-clinical models, and almost all have focused specifically on limb muscles. In the current study, we reveal key differences in the histology and transcriptomic signatures of a limb muscle and a respiratory muscle in orthotopic pancreatic cancer patient-derived xenograft (PDX) mice.

METHODS

To create four cohorts of PDX mice evaluated in this study, tumours resected from four pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma patients were portioned and attached to the pancreas of immunodeficient NSG mice.

RESULTS

Body weight, muscle mass, and fat mass were significantly decreased in each PDX line. Histological assessment of cryosections taken from the tibialis anterior (TA) and diaphragm (DIA) revealed differential effects of tumour burden on their morphology. Subsequent genome-wide microarray analysis on TA and DIA also revealed key differences between their transcriptomes in response to cancer. Genes up-regulated in the DIA were enriched for extracellular matrix protein-encoding genes and genes related to the inflammatory response, while down-regulated genes were enriched for mitochondria related protein-encoding genes. Conversely, the TA showed up-regulation of canonical atrophy-associated pathways such as ubiquitin-mediated protein degradation and apoptosis, and down-regulation of genes encoding extracellular matrix proteins.

CONCLUSIONS

These data suggest that distinct biological processes may account for wasting in different skeletal muscles in response to the same tumour burden. Further investigation into these differences will be critical for the future development of effective clinical strategies to counter cancer cachexia.

Patient-reported symptoms and problems at admission to specialized palliative care improved survival prediction in 30,969 cancer patients: A nationwide register-based study

BACKGROUND

Large, nationally representative studies of the association between quality of life and survival time in cancer patients in specialized palliative care are missing.

AIM

The aim of this study was to investigate whether symptoms/problems at admission to specialized palliative care were associated with survival and if the symptoms/problems may improve prediction of death within 1 week and 1 month, respectively.

SETTING/PARTICIPANTS

All cancer patients who had filled in the EORTC QLQ-C15-PAL at admission to specialized palliative care in Denmark in 2010-2017 were included through the Danish Palliative Care Database. Cox regression was used to identify clinical variables (gender, age, type of contact (inpatient vs outpatient), and cancer site) and symptoms/problems significantly associated with survival. To test whether symptoms/problems improved survival predictions, the overall accuracy (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) for different prediction models was compared. The validity of the prediction models was tested with data on 5,508 patients admitted to palliative care in 2018.

RESULTS

The study included 30,969 patients with an average age of 68.9 years; 50% were women. Gender, age, type of contact, cancer site, and most symptoms/problems were significantly associated with survival time. The predictive value of symptoms/problems was trivial except for physical function, which clearly improved the overall accuracy for 1-week and 1-month predictions of death when added to models including only clinical variables.

CONCLUSION

Most symptoms/problems were significantly associated with survival and mainly physical function improved predictions of death. Interestingly, the predictive value of physical function was the same as all clinical variables combined (in hospice) or even higher (in palliative care teams).

NECPAL tool prognostication in advanced chronic illness: a rapid review and expert consensus

OBJECTIVE

To develop a proposal for a 2-year mortality prognostic approach for patients with advanced chronic conditions based on the palliative care need (PCN) items of the NECesidades PALiativas (NECPAL) CCOMS-ICO V.3.1 2017 tool.

METHODS

A phase 1 study using three components based on the NECPAL items: (1) a rapid review of systematic reviews (SRs) on prognostic factors of mortality in patients with advanced chronic diseases and PCNs; (2) a clinician and statistician experts' consensus based on the Delphi technique on the selection of mortality prognostic factors; and (3) a panel meeting to discuss the findings of components (1) and (2).

RESULTS

Twenty SRs were included in a rapid review, and 50% were considered of moderate quality. Despite methodological issues, nutritional and functional decline, severe and refractory dyspnoea, multimorbidity, use of resources and specific disease indicators were found to be potentially prognostic variables for mortality across four clinical groups and end-of-life (EoL) trajectories: cancer, dementia and neurologic diseases, chronic organ failure and frailty. Experts' consensus added 'needs' identified by health professionals. However, clinicians were less able to discriminate which NECPAL items were more reliable for a 'general' model. A retrospective cohort study was designed to evaluate this proposal in phase 2.

CONCLUSIONS

We identified several parameters with prognostic value and linked them to the tool's utility to timely identify PCNs of patients with advanced chronic conditions in all settings of care. Initial results show this is a clinical and feasible tool, that will help with clinical pragmatic decision-making and to define services.

Clinically Integrated Physical Therapist Practice in Cancer Care: A New Comprehensive Approach

Best practice recommendations in cancer care increasingly call for integrated rehabilitation services to address physical impairments and disability. These recommendations have languished primarily due to a lack of pragmatic, generalizable intervention models. This perspective paper proposes a clinically integrated physical therapist (CI-PT) model that enables flexible and scalable services for screening, triage, and intervention addressing functional mobility. The model is based on (1) a CI-PT embedded in cancer care provider clinics, and (2) rehabilitation across the care continuum determined by the patient's level of functional mobility. The CI-PT model includes regular screening of functional mobility in provider clinics via a patient-reported mobility measure-the Activity Measure for Post-Acute Care, a brief physical therapy evaluation tailored to the specific functional needs of the individual-and a tailored, skilled physical therapist intervention based on functional level. The CI-PT model provides a pragmatic, barrier-free, patient-centric, data-driven approach to integrating rehabilitation as part of standard care for survivors of cancer. The model standardizes CI-PT practice and may be sufficiently agile to provide targeted interventions in widely varying cancer settings and populations. Therefore, it may be ideal for wide implementation among outpatient oncological settings. Implementation of this model requires a shared approach to care that includes physical therapists, rehabilitation administrators, cancer care providers, and cancer center administrators.

Evaluation of frequency of Clinical Symptoms and Signs within Six Months Prior to Death in Patients with Advanced Solid Cancers

This retrospective study documented the frequency of the clinical symptoms and signs that increase in advanced cancer patients as they move toward death in order to create a sum score and correlate it with survival. Of 572 adult patients who were treated in four selected hospitals and who died in 1998 and 1999, data at six, three, and one month(s) prior to death was available for 257. The results showed that the number of symptoms and certain clinical findings accelerated toward death, increasing the sum score. Younger patients obtained higher sum scores at one month prior to death than did elderly ones (p=0.014); this suggests that elderly patients die at a point where they show less worsening in their clinical condition than do younger patients. The score was independent of cancer type or gender. The results of this analysis provide data for further development of a clinical tool to predict long-term survival in palliative care settings.

Patient-Reported Functional Status in Outpatients With Advanced Cancer: Correlation With Physician-Reported Scores and Survival

CONTEXT

Performance status measures are increasingly completed by patients in outpatient cancer settings, but are not well validated for this use.

OBJECTIVES

We assessed performance of a patient-reported functional status measure (PRFS, based on the Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group [ECOG]), compared with the physician-completed ECOG, in terms of agreement in ratings and prediction of survival.

METHODS

Patients and physicians independently completed five-point PRFS (lay version of ECOG) and ECOG measures on first consultation at an oncology palliative care clinic. We assessed agreement between PRFS and ECOG using weighted Kappa statistics, and used linear regression to determine factors associated with the difference between PRFS and ECOG ratings. We used the Kaplan-Meier method to estimate the patients' median survival, categorized by PRFS and ECOG, and assessed predictive accuracy of these measures using the C-statistic.

RESULTS

For the 949 patients, there was moderate agreement between PRFS and ECOG (weighted Kappa 0.32; 95% CI: 0.28-0.36). On average, patients' ratings of performance status were worse by 0.31 points (95% CI: 0.25-0.37, P < 0.0001); this tendency was greater for younger patients (P = 0.002) and those with worse symptoms (P < 0.0001). Both PRFS and ECOG scores correlated well with overall survival; the C-statistic was higher for the average of PRFS and ECOG scores (0.619) than when reported individually (0.596 and 0.604, respectively).

CONCLUSION

Patients tend to rate their performance status worse than physicians, particularly if they are younger or have greater symptom burden. Prognostic ability of performance status could be improved by using the average of patients and physician scores.

Palliative chemotherapy outcomes in patients with ECOG-PS higher than 1

Purpose

Although patients with incurable disease and Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status (ECOG-PS ≥ 2) are underrepresented in clinical trials, they are frequently offered palliative chemotherapy (pCT) in daily clinical practice in order to improve symptoms and quality of life. In this case-control retrospective analysis, our goal was to identify factors associated with poorer survival and lack of benefit of pCT in this population.

Patients and methods

We evaluated 2,514 patients who died between August 2011 and July 2012 in an academic cancer care institution and its hospice. A total of 301 patients with solid tumours and ECOG-PS ≥ 2 at prescription of pCT were selected for this case-control retrospective analysis. Cases were defined as patients who survived less than 90 days after the first cycle of first line pCT, and controls were those who had a longer survival.

Results

142 cases and 159 controls were included. Cases were more likely to experience grade ≥ 3 toxicity (43% versus 28%; p = 0.005), die of toxicity (16% versus 6%; p < 0.001) and not be offered best supportive care (BSC) only (47% versus 71%; p < 0.001). Median overall survival was 204 among controls and 34 days in cases (hazard ratio = 0.177; 95%, confidence interval = 0.015–0.033, p < 0.001). Logistic regression analysis identified ECOG-PS > 2 (odds ratio (OR) = 2.3, p = 0.044) and serum creatinine (sCr) > 1 mg/dL (OR = 11.2, p < 0.001) as independent predictors of 90-day mortality.

Conclusions

The independent predictors of short survival (less than 3 months) after initiation of pCT in this population were ECOG-PS > 2 and elevated sCr. Therefore, patient selection is crucial, as pCT may be deleterious in ECOG-PS ≥ 2 pts.

Prevalence and Implications of Abnormal Laboratory Results in Patients in the Terminal Phase of Life

BACKGROUND

Pathophysiological changes at the end of life may affect pharmacokinetics of drugs. However, caregivers typically do not extensively monitor patients' laboratory parameters at the end of life.

OBJECTIVE

Our aim was to describe laboratory parameters of hospice patients in the week before death.

METHODS

A cohort study was conducted on available laboratory results in the week before death, including clinical chemistry and hematology tests.

RESULTS

Laboratory data of 125 patients in a palliative care center were included, assessed at a median of 3 days before death. Eighty percent of patients had anemia and almost all had hypoalbuminemia (97%). Elevated levels of gamma-glutamyl transferase (gGT) were found in 75%, of alkaline phosphatase (ALP) in 60%, of aspartate aminotransferase (ASAT) in 60%, and of calcium (Ca) in 68%. Alanine aminotransferase (ALAT), bilirubin, sodium (Na), and potassium (K) were abnormal in from 8.8% to 36.0% of patients. A previous unknown poor kidney function was found in 60% of patients. Thirteen patients (22%) with a regular morphine prescription and one patient treated with a non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID) had severe kidney failure.

CONCLUSIONS

Abnormal laboratory results were expected due to the pathophysiological changes that occur during the last phase of life. Remarkably, however, electrolytes (Na and K) were balanced even shortly before death. Estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), reflecting the kidney function, seems the most clinically relevant laboratory parameter, because it may guide drug choice and dosing.

Prognosis prediction with two calculations of Palliative Prognostic Index: further prospective validation in hospice cancer patients with multicentre study

OBJECTIVES

In palliative care settings, predicting prognosis is important for patients and clinicians. The Palliative Prognostic Index (PPI), a prognostic tool calculated using clinical indices alone has been validated within cancer population. This study was to further test the discriminatory ability of the PPI (ie, its ability to determine whether a subject will live more or less than a certain amount of time) in a larger sample but with a palliative care context and to compare predictions at two different points in time.

METHODS

Multicentre, prospective, observational study in 10 inpatient hospices in the UK. The PPI score was calculated on the day of admission (PPI₁) and again once on days 3-5 of inpatient stay (PPI₂). Patients were followed up for 6 weeks or until death, whichever was earlier.

RESULTS

Of the 1164 patients included in the study, 962 had both scores available. The results from PPI₂ showed improved sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value compared with PPI₁. For PPI₁versus PPI₂, area under receiver operator character curve (ROC) for <21 days were 0.73 versus 0.82 and for ≥42 days prediction 0.72 versus 0.80. The median survival days for patients with PPI₁ ≤4, 4.5-6 and >6 were 38 (31 to 44), 17 (14 to 19) and 5 (4 to 7).

CONCLUSION

This study showed improved discriminatory ability using the PPI score calculated between day 3and day5 of admission compared with that calculated on admission. This study further validated PPI as a prognostic tool within a palliative care population and showed recording at two time points improved accuracy.

Surgical Transfer Decision Making: How Regional Resources are Allocated in a Regional Transfer Network

BACKGROUND

Tertiary care centers often operate above capacity, limiting access to emergency surgical care for patients at nontertiary facilities. For nontraumatic surgical emergencies there are no guidelines to inform patient selection for transfer to another facility. Such decisions may be particularly difficult for gravely ill patients when the benefits of transfer are uncertain.

METHODS

To characterize surgeons' decision-making strategies for transfer, a qualitative analysis of semistructured interviews was conducted with 16 general surgeons who refer and accept patients within a regional transfer network. Interviews included case-based vignettes about surgical patients with high comorbidity, multisystem organ failure, and terminal conditions. An inductive coding strategy was used, followed by performance of a higher-level analysis to characterize important themes and trends.

RESULTS

Surgeons at outlying hospitals seek transfer when the resources to care for patients' surgical needs or comorbid conditions are unavailable locally. In contrast, surgeons at the tertiary center accept all patients regardless of outcome or resource considerations. Bed availability at the tertiary care center restricts transfer capacity, harming patients who cannot be transferred. Surgeons sometimes transfer dying patients in order to exhaust all treatment options or appease families, but they are conflicted about the value of transfer, which displaces patients from their local communities and limits access to tertiary care for others.

CONCLUSION

Decisions to transfer surgical patients are complex and require comprehensive understanding of local capacity and regional resources. Current decision-making strategies fail to optimize patient selection for transfer and can inappropriately allocate scarce tertiary care beds.

Development of Imminent Mortality Predictor for Advanced Cancer (IMPAC), a Tool to Predict Short-Term Mortality in Hospitalized Patients With Advanced Cancer

PURPOSE

End-of-life care for patients with advanced cancer is aggressive and costly. Oncologists inconsistently estimate life expectancy and address goals of care. Currently available prognostication tools are based on subjective clinical assessment. An objective prognostic tool could help oncologists and patients decide on a realistic plan for end-of-life care. We developed a predictive model (Imminent Mortality Predictor in Advanced Cancer [IMPAC]) for short-term mortality in hospitalized patients with advanced cancer.

METHODS

Electronic health record data from 669 patients with advanced cancer who were discharged from Yale Cancer Center/Smilow Cancer Hospital were extracted. Statistical learning techniques were used to develop a tool to estimate survival probabilities. Patients were randomly split into training (70%) and validation (30%) sets 20 times. We tested the predictive properties of IMPAC for mortality at 30, 60, 90, and 180 days past the day of admission.

RESULTS

For mortality within 90 days at a 40% sensitivity level, IMPAC has close to 60% positive predictive value. Patients estimated to have a greater than 50% chance of death within 90 days had a median survival time of 47 days. Patients estimated to have a less than 50% chance of death had a median survival of 290 days. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for IMPAC averaged greater than .70 for all time horizons tested. Estimated potential cost savings per patient was $15,413 (95% CI, $9,162 to $21,665) in 2014 constant dollars.

CONCLUSION

IMPAC, a novel prognostic tool, can generate life expectancy probabilities in real time and support oncologists in counseling patients about end-of-life care. Potentially avoidable costs are significant.

Skeletal muscle function during the progression of cancer cachexia in the male ApcMin/+ mouse

While cancer-induced skeletal muscle wasting has been widely investigated, the drivers of cancer-induced muscle functional decrements are only beginning to be understood. Decreased muscle function impacts cancer patient quality of life and health status, and several potential therapeutics have failed in clinical trials due to a lack of functional improvement. Furthermore, systemic inflammation and intrinsic inflammatory signaling's role in the cachectic disruption of muscle function requires further investigation. We examined skeletal muscle functional properties during cancer cachexia and determined their relationship to systemic and intrinsic cachexia indices. Male Apc^Min/+ (MIN) mice were stratified by percent body weight loss into weight stable (WS; <5% loss) or cachectic (CX; >5% loss). Age-matched C57BL/6 littermates served as controls. Tibialis anterior (TA) twitch properties, tetanic force, and fatigability were examined in situ. TA protein and mRNA expression were examined in the nonstimulated leg. CX decreased muscle mass, tetanic force (P_o), and specific tetanic force (_sP_o). Whole body and muscle fatigability were increased in WS and CX. CX had slower contraction rates, +dP/d t and -dP/d t, which were inversely associated with muscle signal transducer and activator of transcription 3 ( STAT3) and p65 activation. STAT3 and p65 activation were also inversely associated with P_o. However, STAT3 was not related to _sP_o or fatigue. Muscle suppressor of cytokine signaling 3 mRNA expression was negatively associated with TA weight, P_o, and _sP_o but not fatigue. Our study demonstrates that multiple functional deficits that occur with cancer cachexia are associated with increased muscle inflammatory signaling. Notably, muscle fatigability is increased in the MIN mouse before cachexia development. NEW & NOTEWORTHY Recent studies have identified decrements in skeletal muscle function during cachexia. We have extended these studies by directly relating decrements in muscle function to established cachexia indices. Our results demonstrate that a slow-fatigable contractile phenotype is developed during the progression of cachexia that coincides with increased muscle inflammatory signaling. Furthermore, regression analysis identified predictors of cancer-induced muscle dysfunction. Last, we report the novel finding that whole body and muscle fatigability were increased before cachexia development.

Performance Status, Prognostic Scoring, and Parenteral Nutrition Requirements Predict Survival in Patients with Advanced Cancer Receiving Home Parenteral Nutrition

We describe a cohort of Home Parenteral Nutrition (HPN) patients with advanced cancer in order to identify factors affecting prognosis. Demographic, anthropometric, biochemical and medical factors, Karnofsky Performance Status (KPS), Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS), and PN requirements were recorded. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed including Kaplan-Meier curves, Cox Regression, and correlation analyses. In total, 107 HPN patients (68 women, 39 men, mean age 57 yr) with advanced cancer were identified. The main indications for HPN were bowel obstruction (74.3%) and high output ostomies (14.3%). Cancer cachexia was present in 87.1% of patients. The hazard ratio (HR) for upper gastrointestinal and "other" cancers vs. gynaecological malignancy was 1.75 (p = 0.077) and 2.11 (p = 0.05), respectively. KPS score, GPS, PN volume, and PN potassium levels significantly predicted survival (HR_{KPS ≥50 vs <50} = 0.47; HR_{GPS = 2 vs. GPS = 0} = 3.19). In multivariate analysis, KPS and GPS remained significant predictors (p < 0.05), whilst PN volume reached borderline significance (p = 0.094). Survival was not significantly affected by the presence of metastatic disease, previous or concurrent surgery, chemo-radiotherapy, or indication for HPN (p > 0.05). Most patients passed away in their homes or hospice (77.9%). Performance status, prognostic scoring, and PN requirements may predict survival in patients with advanced cancer receiving HPN.

A retrospective assessment of prognostication in 456,685 patients undergoing elective major non-cardiac surgery

BACKGROUND

The accuracy of patient prognostication varies extensively in studies of select populations. Prognostication is an important component of patient selection for elective surgery. This retrospective study assessed patient prognostication prior to elective surgery by comparing the observed with the expected number of deaths in such patients.

STUDY DESIGN

We used population-based administrative data to identify all adults undergoing one of 13 most common elective major non-cardiac gender-neutral surgeries in Ontario, Canada from 2002-2014. Survival status within one year of surgery was determined by linking to vital statistics. Expected death risk was determined with health administrative data and a previously derived and externally validated index.

RESULTS

We identified 456,685 patients of which 17,266 (3.8%) died within one year of surgery. Patients whose expected one-year death risk was > 25% accounted for 5.3% of the entire cohort (n = 24,178) but 51.7% of all deaths (n = 8,927). The overall observed death risk was significantly lower than expected (standardized mortality ratio [SMR], 0.72; 95% confidence interval, 0.71 to 0.73; P < 0.0001). The SMRs were significantly < 1 (values ranged from 0.54 [partial liver resection] to 0.93 [total knee replacement]) in 11/13 (85%) surgery types. Improved outcomes were especially notable in patients with a higher expected death risk. Only 35/5,539 (0.6%) surgeons had one-year patient death risks that exceeded the population average.

CONCLUSIONS

The observed number of deaths within one year of elective surgery is significantly lower than expected, with minimal inter-surgeon variation. These results suggest that patient selection for major elective non-cardiac surgery identified individuals with better than expected survival and whose survival was not adversely influenced by their surgery.

Hypoalbuminaemia and decreased midazolam clearance in terminally ill adult patients, an inflammatory effect?

AIMS

Midazolam is the drug of choice for palliative sedation and is titrated to achieve the desired level of sedation. Because of large inter-individual variability (IIV), however, the time it takes to achieve adequate sedation varies widely. It would therefore greatly improve clinical care if an individualized dose could be determined beforehand. To find clinically relevant parameters for dose individualization, we performed a pharmacokinetic study on midazolam, 1OH-midazolam (1-OH-M) and 1OH-midazolam-glucuronide (1-OH-MG) in terminally ill patients.

METHODS

Using nonlinear mixed effects modelling (NONMEM 7.2), a population pharmacokinetic analysis was conducted with 192 samples from 45 terminally ill patients who received midazolam either orally or subcutaneously. The covariates analysed were patient characteristics, co-medication and blood chemistry levels.

RESULTS

The data were accurately described by a one compartment model for midazolam, 1-OH-M and 1-OH-MG. The population mean estimates for midazolam, 1-OH-M and 1-OH-MG clearance were 8.4 l h^-1 (RSE 9%, IIV 49%), 45.4 l h^-1 (RSE 12%, IIV 60.5%) and 5.1 l h^-1 (RSE 11%, IIV 49.9%), respectively. 1-OH-MG clearance was correlated with the estimated glomular filtration rate (eGFR) explaining 28.4% of the IIV in 1-OH-MG clearance. In addition, low albumin levels were associated with decreased midazolam clearance, explaining 18.2% of the IIV.

CONCLUSION

Our study indicates albumin levels and eGFR as relevant clinical parameters to optimize midazolam dosing in terminally ill patients. The correlation between low albumin levels and decreased midazolam clearance is probably a result of inflammatory response as high CRP levels were correlated in a similar way.

A systematic review of prognostic factors at the end of life for people with a hematological malignancy

Background

Accurate prognosticating is needed when patients are nearing the end of life to ensure appropriate treatment decisions, and facilitate palliative care provision and transitioning to terminal care. People with a hematological malignancy characteristically experience a fluctuating illness trajectory leading to difficulties with prognosticating. The aim of this review was to identify current knowledge regarding ‘bedside’ prognostic factors in the final 3 months of life for people with a hematological malignancy associated with increased risk of mortality.

Methods

A systematic review of the literature was performed across: PubMed; CINAHL; PsycINFO; and Cochrane with set inclusion criteria: 1) prognostic cohort studies; 2) published 2004–2014; 3) sample ≥ 18 years; 4) >50% sample had a hematological malignancy; 5) reported ‘bedside’ prognostic factors; 6) median survival of <3 months; and 7) English language. Quality appraisal was performed using the Quality In Prognostic Studies (QUIPS) tool. Results are reported in line with PRISMA guidelines.

Results

The search returned 4860 studies of which 28 met inclusion criteria. Twenty-four studies were rated moderate quality, three were high quality and one study was deemed to be of low quality. Most studies were set in the ICU (n = 24/28) and were retrospective (n = 25/28). Forty ‘bedside’ prognostic factors were identified as associated with increased risk of mortality encompassing the following broad categories: 1) demographics; 2) physiological complications or conditions; 3) disease characteristics; 4) laboratory blood values; and 5) interventions.

Conclusions

The literature on prognosticating in the final months of life was predominantly focused on people who had experienced acute physiological deterioration and were being treated aggressively in the in-patient setting. A significant gap in the literature exists for people who are treated less aggressively or are on a palliative trajectory. Findings did not report on, or confirm the significance of, many of the key prognostic factors associated with increased risk of mortality at the end of life in the solid tumour population, demonstrating key differences in the two populations.

Trial registration

This systematic review was not registered.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12885-017-3207-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Are patients with cancer with sepsis and bacteraemia at a higher risk of mortality? A retrospective chart review of patients presenting to a tertiary care centre in Lebanon

OBJECTIVE

Most sepsis studies have looked at the general population. The aim of this study is to report on the characteristics, treatment and hospital mortality of patients with cancer diagnosed with sepsis or septic shock.

SETTING

A single-centre retrospective study at a tertiary care centre looking at patients with cancer who presented to our tertiary hospital with sepsis, septic shock or bacteraemia between 2010 and 2015.

PARTICIPANTS

176 patients with cancer were compared with 176 cancer-free controls.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOMES

The primary outcome of this study was the in hospital mortality in both cohorts. Secondary outcomes included patient demographics, emergency department (ED) vital signs and parameters of resuscitation along with laboratory work.

RESULTS

A total of 352 patients were analysed. The mean age at presentation for the cancer group was 65.39±15.04 years, whereas the mean age for the control group was 74.68±14.04 years (p<0.001). In the cancer cohort the respiratory system was the most common site of infection (37.5%) followed by the urinary system (26.7%), while in the cancer-free arm, the urinary system was the most common site of infection (40.9%). intravenous fluid replacement for the first 24 hours was higher in the cancer cohort. ED, intensive care unit and general practice unit length of stay were comparable in both the groups. 95 (54%) patients with cancer died compared with 75 (42.6%) in the cancer-free group. The 28-day hospital mortality in the cancer cohort was 87 (49.4%) vs 46 (26.1%) in the cancer-free cohort (p=0.009). Patients with cancer had a 2.320 (CI 95% 1.225 to 4.395, p=0.010) odds of dying compared with patients without cancer in the setting of sepsis.

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first study looking at an in-depth analysis of sepsis in the specific oncology population. Despite aggressive care, patients with cancer have higher hospital mortality than their cancer-free counterparts while adjusting for all other variables.

Identifying patients with advanced chronic conditions for a progressive palliative care approach: a cross-sectional study of prognostic indicators related to end-of-life trajectories

OBJECTIVES

2 innovative concepts have lately been developed to radically improve the care of patients with advanced chronic conditions (PACC): early identification of palliative care (PC) needs and the 3 end-of-life trajectories in chronic illnesses (acute, intermittent and gradual dwindling). It is not clear (1) what indicators work best for this early identification and (2) if specific clinical indicators exist for each of these trajectories. The objectives of this study are to explore these 2 issues.

SETTING

3 primary care services, an acute care hospital, an intermediate care centre and 4 nursing homes in a mixed urban-rural district in Barcelona, Spain.

PARTICIPANTS

782 patients (61.5% women) with a positive NECPAL CCOMS-ICO test, indicating they might benefit from a PC approach.

OUTCOME MEASURES

The characteristics and distribution of the indicators of the NECPAL CCOMS-ICO tool are analysed with respect to the 3 trajectories and have been arranged by domain (functional, nutritional and cognitive status, emotional problems, geriatric syndromes, social vulnerability and others) and according to their static (severity) and dynamic (progression) properties.

RESULTS

The common indicators associated with early end-of-life identification are functional (44.3%) and nutritional (30.7%) progression, emotional distress (21.9%) and geriatric syndromes (15.7% delirium, 11.2% falls). The rest of the indicators showed differences in the associations per illness trajectories (p<0.05). 48.2% of the total cohort was identified as advanced frailty patients with no advanced disease criteria.

CONCLUSIONS

Dynamic indicators are present in the 3 trajectories and are especially useful to identify PACC for a progressive PC approach purpose. Most of the other indicators are typically associated with a specific trajectory. These findings can help clinicians improve the identification of patients for a palliative approach.