Longitudinal lipid trends and adverse outcomes in patients with CKD: a 13-year observational cohort study

Impact of polygenic risk score for triglyceride trajectory and diabetic complications in subjects with type 2 diabetes based on large electronic medical record data from Taiwan: a case control study

BACKGROUND

The prevalence of diabetic dyslipidemia has gradually increased worldwide and individuals with hypertriglyceridemia often have a high polygenic burden of triglyceride (TG)-increasing variants. However, the contribution of genetic variants to dyslipidemia in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) remains limited. Therefore, in this study, we aimed to investigate the genetic characteristics of longitudinal changes in TG levels among patients with T2D and summarize the genetic effects of polygenic risk score (PRS) on TG trajectory and risk of diabetic complications.

METHODS

We conducted a case-control study. A total of 11,312 patients with T2D with longitudinal TG and genetic data were identified from a large hospital database in Taiwan. We then performed a genome-wide association study and calculated the relative PRS.

RESULTS

In total, 21 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) related to TG trajectory were identified and yielded an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) of 0.712 for high TG trajectory risk among Taiwanese patients with T2D. A cumulative genetic effect was observed for high TG trajectory, even when considering the adherence of a lipid-lowering agent in stratified analysis. An increased PRS increases high TG trajectory risk in a logistic regression model (odds ratio = 1.55; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.31-1.83 in the validation cohort). The TG-specific PRS was associated with the risk of diabetic microvascular complications, including diabetic retinopathy and nephropathy (with hazard ratios of 1.11 [95% CI = 1.01-1.21, P = 0.027] and 1.05 [95% CI = 1.01-1.1, P = 0.018], respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

This study may contribute to the identification of patients with T2D who are at risk of abnormal TG levels and diabetic microvascular complications using polygenic information.

Association of Malnutrition with Risk of Acute Kidney Injury: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a complex clinical syndrome of hospitalization that may be affected by undernutrition and metabolic changes. The aim of this meta-analysis was to systematically assess the association between malnutrition and the risk of prevalent AKI.

Materials and Methods

We searched PubMed, Embase, Ovid MEDLINE, Web of Science, and Chinese databases (WANFANG, VIP, and CKI) from database inception until May 1, 2023, for studies evaluating the association of malnutrition with the risk of AKI. Summary odds ratios (ORs) were estimated using a random-effects model.

Results

We identified 17 observational studies, which included 273,315 individuals. Compared with patients with normal nutritional status, those with malnutrition had a 125% increased risk of prevalent AKI (pooled ORs, 2.25; 95% confidence interval, 1.80-2.82). Malnutrition was also significantly associated with prevalent AKI across all subgroups when subgroup analyses were performed on covariates such as region, study design, age, sample size, malnutrition assessment method, patient characteristics, covariate adjustment degree, and risk of bias. Meta-regression models demonstrated no significant differences in AKI risk between patients with malnutrition and without malnutrition.

Conclusions

Our results suggest that malnutrition may be a potential target for AKI prevention. However, well-designed studies with ethnically or geographically diverse populations are needed to evaluate strategies and interventions to prevent or slow the development and progression of AKI in malnourished individuals.

DEPOT: graph learning delineates the roles of cancers in the progression trajectories of chronic kidney disease using electronic medical records

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a common, complex, and heterogeneous disease impacting aging populations. Determining the landscape of disease progression trajectories from midlife to senior age in a real-world context allows us to better understand the progression of CKD, the heterogeneity of progression patterns among the risk population, and the interactions with other clinical conditions like cancers. In this study, we use electronic health records (EHRs) to outline the CKD progression trajectory roadmap for the Wake Forest Baptist Medical Center (WFBMC) patient population. We establish an EHR cohort (n = 79,434) with patients' health status identified by 18 Essential Clinical Indices across 508,732 clinical encounters. We develop the DisEase PrOgression Trajectory (DEPOT) approach to model CKD progression trajectories and individualize clinical decision support. The DEPOT is an evidence-driven, graph-based clinical informatics approach that addresses the unique challenges in longitudinal EHR data by systematically using the graph artificial intelligence (graph-AI) model for representation learning and reverse graph embedding for trajectory reconstruction. Moreover, DEPOT includes a prediction model to assign new patients along the progression trajectory. We successfully establish the EHR-based CKD progression trajectories with DEPOT in the WFUBMC cohort. We annotate the trajectories with clinical features, including kidney function, age, and other indices, including cancer. This CKD progression trajectory roadmap reveals diverse kidney failure pathways associated with different clinical conditions. Specifically, we have identified one high-risk trajectory and two low-risk trajectories. Switching pathways from low-risk trajectories to the high-risk one is associated with accelerated decline in kidney function. On this roadmap, high-risk patients are enriched in the skin and GU cancers, which differs from low-risk patients, suggesting fundamentally different disease progression mechanisms. Overall, the CKD progression trajectory roadmap reveals novel diverse renal failure pathways in type 2 diabetes mellitus and highlights disease progression patterns associated with cancer phenotypes.

The Association of the Levels of High-Density Lipoprotein and Apolipoprotein A1 with SARS-CoV-2 Infection and COVID-19 Severity: An Analysis of the N3C Database

This study analyzed data from the National COVID Cohort Collaborative (N3C) database to investigate whether high-density lipoprotein (HDL) and its major protein component, apolipoprotein A1 (apoA1), are associated with severe COVID-19 sequelae, specifically acute kidney injury (AKI) and severe COVID-19 disease as defined by the infection resulting in hospitalization, extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO), invasive ventilation, or death. Our study included a total of 1,415,302 subjects with HDL values and 3589 subjects with apoA1 values. Higher levels of both HDL and apoA1 were associated with a lower incidence of infection as well as a lower incidence of severe disease. Higher HDL levels were also associated with a lower incidence of developing AKI. Most comorbidities were negatively correlated with SARS-CoV-2 infection, presumably due to the behavioral changes that occurred as a result of the precautions taken by individuals with underlying comorbidities. The presence of comorbidities, however, was associated with developing severe COVID-19 disease and AKI. African American and Hispanic populations experienced worse outcomes, including a higher incidence of infection and the development of severe disease, as well as AKI. Smoking and being male were associated with a lower incidence of infection, while they were risk factors for the development of severe disease and AKI. The results on cholesterol and diabetes drugs warrant further research, given that the database included multiple drugs in each category impeding for analysis of specific medications. Despite the current limitations in the N3C data, this study is the first to investigate the roles of HDL and apoA1 on the outcomes of COVID-19 using the US population data.

Clinicopathological features and prognosis of idiopathic membranous nephropathy with thyroid dysfunction

BACKGROUND

Thyroid dysfunction is common in patients with kidney disease. However, the relationship between thyroid dysfunction and idiopathic membranous nephropathy (IMN) remains unclear. This retrospective study aimed to investigate the clinicopathological characteristics and prognosis of patients with IMN and thyroid dysfunction compared to patients with IMN and without thyroid dysfunction.

METHODS

A total of 1052 patients with IMN diagnosed by renal biopsy were enrolled in this study, including 736 (70%) with normal thyroid function and 316 (30%) with abnormal thyroid function. We analyzed the clinicopathological features and prognostic data between the two groups, using propensity score matching (PSM) to reduce the bias. Logistic regression analysis was performed to investigate the risk factors for IMN combined with thyroid dysfunction. Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox regression analysis were used to evaluate the association between thyroid dysfunction and IMN.

RESULTS

Patients with IMN and thyroid dysfunction exhibited more severe clinical features. Female sex, lower albumin level, higher D-dimer level, severe proteinuria, and decreased estimated glomerular filtration rate were predictors of thyroid dysfunction in patients with IMN. After PSM, 282 pairs were successfully matched. Results from the Kaplan-Meier curves indicated that the thyroid dysfunction group had a lower complete remission rate (P = 0.044), higher relapse rate (P < 0.001), and lower renal survival rate (P = 0.004). The multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that thyroid dysfunction was an independent risk factor for complete remission [hazard ratio (HR) = 0.810, P = 0.045], relapse (HR = 1.721, P = 0.001), and composite endpoint event (HR = 2.113, P = 0.014) in IMN.

CONCLUSIONS

Thyroid dysfunction is relatively common in patients with IMN, and the clinical indicators are more severe in these patients. Thyroid dysfunction is an independent risk factor for poor prognosis in patients with IMN. More attention should be paid to thyroid function in patients with IMN.

Effects of Descurainia sophia on Oxidative Stress Markers and Thirst Alleviation in Hemodialysis Patients: A Randomized Double-Blinded Placebo-Controlled Cross-Over Clinical Trial

Background. Patients undergoing hemodialysis (HD) are regularly exposed to oxidative stress and inflammation and may suffer from thirst distress with no definitive treatment to address these complications. Descurainia sophia (DS) has been used to alleviate thirst in traditional Persian medicine. This study aimed to assess the effectiveness of DS on oxidation factors and thirst score in HD patients. Methods. This study was conducted on fifty-three HD patients referred to Tehran Shahid Modarres hospital. The patients were randomly divided into two groups: Group 1 received DS for six weeks, then underwent four weeks of washout period followed by six weeks of placebo treatment, while group 2 received placebo initially followed by treatment with DS. Biochemistry, malondialdehyde (MDA), and total antioxidant capacity (TAC) were measured in four phases: at the beginning, before washout, after washout, and at the end of the study. The patient’s body weight was recorded at the start of each session to assess interdialytic weight gain. Thirst scores also were measured using a visual analog scale. Results. A total of 53 patients, including 23 (43.4%) male and 30 (56.6%) female subjects, were included in the study. The results showed a reduction in thirst score ( $p=0.001$ ), cholesterol levels ( $p=0.046$ ), triglycerides (0.003), and MDA ( $p<0.001$ ) following the four-week administration of DS treatment in HD patients. The mean levels of TAC were increased ( $p<0.001$ ), and calcium, as well as Na+, remained unchanged ( $p>0.05$ ). Also, a significant decrease in the patient’s weight was observed ( $p$ value <0.001). This effect persisted after shifting to a placebo. However, the two groups had no significant difference ( $p$ value = 0.539). Conclusion. DS powder-mixed syrup may benefit HD patients by facilitating free radical scavenging and alleviating thirst distress with minimal adverse effects. The seeds could therefore be utilized as a complementary therapy for hemodialysis patients.

Associations Between Life-Course Lipid Trajectories and Subclinical Atherosclerosis in Midlife

IMPORTANCE

Childhood lipid levels have been associated with adult subclinical atherosclerosis; however, life-course lipid trajectories and their associations with cardiovascular disease risk are poorly characterized.

OBJECTIVES

To examine the associations of lipid levels at different ages and discrete lipid trajectory patterns from childhood to adulthood with subclinical atherosclerosis in midlife.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This cohort study used data from the Bogalusa Heart Study, a prospective, population-based cohort study conducted in a semirural, biracial community in Bogalusa, Louisiana, with follow-up from 1973 to 2016 (median follow-up, 36.8 years). Participants had 4 to 16 repeated measurements of lipids, including total cholesterol (TC), non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (non-HDL-C), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), and triglycerides (TG), from childhood to midlife and adult measurement of carotid intima-media thickness (IMT). Statistical analyses were conducted from July 1 to December 31, 2021.

EXPOSURES

Age-specific lipid levels were estimated, and lipid trajectory patterns were identified using latent mixture modeling.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Subclinical atherosclerosis measured by carotid IMT.

RESULTS

The study evaluated 1201 adults (mean [SD] age, 45.7 [6.8] years; 691 [57.5%] women and 510 [42.5%] men; 392 Black [32.6%] and 809 White [67.4%] individuals). Levels of all lipids at each age from 5 to 45 years were significantly associated with adult IMT. The magnitude of associations generally increased with age, and non-HDL-C (age 5 y: β, 0.040; 95% CI, 0.025-0.055; age 45 y, β, 0.049; 95% CI, 0.026-0.072) and LDL-C (age 5 y: β, 0.039; 95% CI, 0.024-0.054; age 45 y, β, 0.043; 95% CI, 0.023-0.063) showed the strongest associations. After adjusting for race, sex, and other cardiovascular risk factors, mean IMT values were significantly higher in the low-slow increase, low-rapid increase, and high-stable trajectory groups for TC (eg, high-stable group: mean difference, 0.152 mm; 95% CI, 0.059-0.244 mm), the low-slow increase, low-rapid increase, moderate-stable, and high-stable trajectory groups for non-HDL-C (eg, low-slow increase group: mean difference, 0.048 mm; 95% CI, 0.012-0.085 mm) and LDL-C (eg, low-rapid increase group: mean difference, 0.104 mm; 95% CI, 0.056-0.151 mm) and the low-rapid increase and moderate-stable trajectory groups for TG (eg, moderate-stable group: mean difference, 0.071 mm; 95% CI, 0.019-0.122 mm) vs the corresponding low-stable trajectory groups. These associations were slightly attenuated after further adjustment for lipid levels at baseline or follow-up. There were no significant differences in mean IMT among HDL-C trajectory groups.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this cohort study, discrete life-course lipid trajectories were associated with the development of atherosclerosis in midlife. The findings emphasize the importance of maintaining optimal lipid levels across the lifespan.

Trajectories of Lipid Profile and Risk of Carotid Atherosclerosis Progression: A Longitudinal Cohort Study

Background: Early assessment of carotid atherosclerotic plaque characteristics is essential for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk stratification and prediction. We aimed to identify different trajectories of lipid profiles and investigate the association of lipid trajectories with carotid atherosclerosis (CAS) progression in a large, longitudinal cohort of the Chinese population. Methods: 10,412 participants aged ≥18 years with ≥2 times general health checkups were included in this longitudinally prospective cohort study at Peking University Third Hospital. We used latent class trajectory models to identify trajectories of total cholesterol (TC), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), triglycerides (TG), and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) over follow-up time (757 days, IQR: 388–844 days). Results: Participants with carotid plaque were more likely to be older, male, have higher body mass index, have a higher prevalence of hypertension and diabetes, and have a higher level of blood pressure, TG, TC, and LDL-C, compared with carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT) and normal group. Subjects were trichotomized according to different trajectory patterns into stable, moderate-stable, and elevated-increasing classes. TC ≥ 5.18 mmol/L and moderate-stable class (hazard ratio (HR): 1.416, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.285–1.559, p: 0.000), TG ≥ 1.70 mmol/L and moderate-stable class (HR: 1.492, 95% CI: 1.163–1.913, p: 0.002), TG ≥ 1.70 mmol/L and elevated-increasing class (HR: 1.218, 95% CI: 1.094–1.357, p: 0.000), LDL-C ≥ 3.36 mmol/L and stable class (HR: 1.500, 95% CI: 1.361–1.653, p: 0.000) were statistically significant associated with CAS progression compared with the reference group. Conclusions: Borderline elevated baseline lipid (TC, TG, and LDL-C) with stable and elevated-increasing trajectories were associated with CAS progression. Long-term strategies for low-level lipid are beneficial for ASCVD management.

Dyslipidemia and coronary artery calcium: From association to development of a risk-prediction nomogram

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The associations between dyslipidemia and coronary artery calcium (CAC) are controversial. We investigated their cross-sectional relationships and developed a predictive scoring system for prognostically significant coronary calcification (PSCC).

METHODS AND RESULTS

This study evaluated the lipid profiles and the CAC score (CACS) measured through multidetector computed tomography (MDCT) among Taiwanese adult patients in a tertiary hospital between 2011 and 2016. Patients with CACS higher than 100 were classified as having PSCC. Dyslipidemia for each lipid component was defined based on the clinical cutoffs or the use of the lipid-lowering agents. Multivariable logistic regression was used to assess the association between dyslipidemia and PSCC and the model performance was assessed using calibration plot, discrimination, and a decision curve analysis. Of the 3586 eligible patients, 364 (10.2%) had PSCC. Increased age, male sex, higher body mass index (BMI), and higher level of triglyceride (TG) were associated with PSCC. The adjusted odds ratios (95% confidence intervals) of PSCC was 1.15 (0.90-1.47) for dyslipidemia defined by total cholesterol (TC) ≥200 mg/dL, 1.06 (0.83-1.35) for low-density-lipoprotein-cholesterol (LDL-C) ≥130 mg/dL, and 1.36 (1.06-1.75) for TG ≥ 200 mg/dL. The positive association between TG ≥ 200 mg/dL and PSCC was not modified by sex. Incorporating hypertriglyceridemia did not significantly improve the predictive performance of the base model comprising of age, sex, BMI, smoking, hypertension, diabetes, estimated glomerular filtration rate, and fasting glucose.

CONCLUSIONS

Hypertriglyceridemia was significantly associated with the prevalent odds of PSCC. Our proposed predictive model may be a useful screening tool for PSCC.

Trajectory of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol in patients with chronic kidney disease and its association with cardiovascular disease

Background

The role of longitudinal temporal trends in LDL-C in cardiovascular disease (CVD) in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) and diabetes is unclear. This study categorized the long-term LDL-C trajectory and determined its association with the incidence of atherosclerotic CVD in patients with CKD according to diabetes status and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR).

Methods

The risk of atherosclerotic CVD was estimated in 137,127 Taiwanese patients with CKD using six LDL-C trajectory classes determined by the latent class mixed model as optimal, near optimal, above optimal, borderline, sustained high, and declined high over 5 years.

Results

The risk of CVD was higher in the sustained high LDL-C [>160 mg/dL over time; adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) = 1.68, 95% CI = 1.45–1.94], declined high LDL-C (>160 to <100 mg/dL; aHR = 1.23, 95% CI = 1.11–1.38), and borderline LDL-C (approximately 140 mg/dL over time; aHR = 1.16, 95% CI = 1.07–1.26) groups than in the optimal LDL-C group (<100 mg/dL over time). There was no such association in patients with an eGFR <15 mL/min/1.73 m². Persistent diabetes was associated with a 1.15–2.47-fold increase in CVD in patients with high LDL-C (>120 mg/dL).

Conclusion

The LDL-C trajectory pattern was associated with the phenotype of CVD risk. The degree of risk varied according to eGFR and diabetes status. A stable low LDL-C over time was potentially beneficial for prevention of CVD. Intensive lipid management and periodic assessment of LDL-C is essential to reduce the risk of CVD in patients with CKD and diabetes.

Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels and adverse clinical outcomes in chronic kidney disease: Results from the KNOW-CKD

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The optimal low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) level to prevent cardiovascular disease in chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients remains unknown. This study aimed to explore the association of LDL-C levels with adverse cardiovascular and kidney outcomes in Korean CKD patients and determine the validity of "the lower, the better" strategy for statin intake.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A total of 1886 patients from the KoreaN cohort study for Outcome in patients With CKD (KNOW-CKD) were included. Patients were classified into four LDL-C categories: <70, 70-99, 100-129, and ≥130 mg/dL. The primary outcome was extended major adverse cardiovascular events (eMACEs). Secondary outcomes included all-cause mortality, and CKD progression. During the follow-up period, the primary outcome events occurred in 136 (7.2%) patients (16.9 per 1000 person-years). There was a graded association between LDL-C and the risk of eMACEs. The hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) for LDL-C categories of 70-99, 100-129, and ≥130 mg/dL were 2.06 (1.14-3.73), 2.79 (1.18-6.58), and 4.10 (1.17-14.3), respectively, compared to LDL-C <70 mg/dL. Time-varying analysis showed consistent findings. The predictive performance of LDL-C for eMACEs was affected by kidney function. Higher LDL-C levels were also associated with significantly higher risks of CKD progression. However, LDL-C level was not associated with all-cause mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

This study showed a graded relationship between LDL-C and the risk of adverse cardiovascular outcome in CKD patients. The lowest risk was observed with LDL-C <70 mg/dL, suggesting that a lower LDL-C target may be acceptable.

Incidence and predictors of chronic kidney disease in type-II diabetes mellitus patients attending at the Amhara region referral hospitals, Ethiopia: A follow-up study

BACKGROUND

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is the severest form of kidney disease characterized by poor filtration. The magnitude of chronic kidney disease is trending upward in the last few years linked with the rapidly escalating cases of non-communicable chronic diseases, particularly diabetes mellitus. However, little is known about when this problem may occur, the incidence as well as predictors of chronic kidney disease among type-II diabetes mellitus patients. Thus, this study was conducted to determine the incidence, time to the occurrence, and predictors of chronic kidney disease in type-II diabetic patients attending the Amhara region referral hospitals, Ethiopia.

METHODS

A retrospective follow-up study was conducted involving 415 participants with type-II diabetes mellitus that enrolled in the chronic follow-up from 2012 to 2017. Multivariable shared Frailty Weibull (Gamma) survival model was employed considering the hospitals as a clustering variable. Model fitness was checked by both the Akaike information criteria (AIC) and log-likelihood. Factors having a p-value of ≤0.2 in the bi-variable analysis were considered to enter the multivariable model. Variables that had a p-value of <0.05 with its corresponding 95% confidence level were deemed to be significant predictors of chronic kidney disease.

RESULTS

The overall cumulative incidence of chronic kidney disease was 10.8% [95%; CI: 7.7-14.0%] with a median occurrence time of 5 years. The annual incidence rate was 193/10,000 [95%; CI: 144.28-258.78]. Having cardiovascular disease/s [AHR = 3.82; 95%CI: 1.4470-10.1023] and hypercholesterolemia [AHR = 3.31; 95% CI: 1.3323-8.2703] were predictors of chronic kidney disease.

CONCLUSION

One out of every ten diabetic patients experienced chronic kidney disease. The median time to develop chronic kidney disease was five years. Hypercholesterolemia and cardiovascular diseases have escalated the hazard of developing CKD. Thus, health promotion and education of diabetic patients to optimize cholesterol levels and prevent cardiovascular disease is recommended to limit the occurrence of this life-threatening disease.

LDL-cholesterol trajectories and statin treatment in Finnish type 2 diabetes patients: a growth mixture model

We aimed to identify distinct longitudinal trends of LDL-cholesterol (LDL-C) levels and investigate these trajectories' association with statin treatment. This retrospective cohort study used electronic health records from 8592 type 2 diabetes patients in North Karelia, Finland, comprising all primary and specialised care visits 2011‒2017. We compared LDL-C trajectory groups assessing LDL-C treatment target achievement and changes in statin treatment intensity. Using a growth mixture model, we identified four LDL-C trajectory groups. The majority (85.9%) had "moderate-stable" LDL-C levels around 2.3 mmol/L. The second-largest group (7.7%) consisted of predominantly untreated patients with alarmingly "high-stable" LDL-C levels around 3.9 mmol/L. The "decreasing" group (3.8%) was characterised by large improvements in initially very high LDL-C levels, along with the highest statin treatment intensification rates, while among patients with "increasing" LDL-C (2.5%), statin treatment declined drastically. In all the trajectory groups, women had significantly higher average LDL-C levels and received less frequent any statin treatment and high-intensity treatment than men. Overall, 41.9% of patients had no statin prescribed at the end of follow-up. Efforts to control LDL-C should be increased-especially in patients with continuously elevated levels-by initiating and intensifying statin treatment earlier and re-initiating the treatment after discontinuation if possible.

Multi-trajectories of lipid indices with incident cardiovascular disease, heart failure, and all-cause mortality: 23 years follow-up of two US cohort studies

BACKGROUND

Understanding the distinct patterns (trajectories) of variation in blood lipid levels before diagnosing cardiovascular disease (CVD) might carry important implications for improving disease prevention or treatment.

METHODS

We investigated 14,373 participants (45.5% men) aged 45-84 from two large US prospective cohort studies with a median of 23 years follow-up. First, we jointly estimated developmental trajectories of lipid indices, including low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), and triglyceride (TG) concentrations using group-based multi-trajectory modeling. Then, the association of identified multi-trajectories with incident CVD, heart failure, and all-cause mortality were examined using Cox proportional hazard model.

RESULTS

Seven distinct multi-trajectories were identified. The majority of participants (approximately 80%) exhibited decreasing LDL-C but rising TG levels and relatively stable HDL-C levels. Compared to the individuals with healthy and stable LDL-C, HDL-C, and TG levels, those in other groups were at significant risk of incident CVD after adjusting for other conventional risk factors. Individuals with the highest but decreasing LDL-C and borderline high and rising TG levels over time were at the highest risk than those in other groups with a 2.22-fold risk of CVD. Also, those with the highest and increased triglyceride levels over time, over optimal and decreasing LDL-C levels, and the lowest HDL-C profile had a nearly 1.84 times CVD risk. Even individuals in the multi-trajectory group with the highest HDL-C, optimal LDL-C, and optimal TG levels had a significant risk (HR, 1.45; 95% CI 1.02-2.08). Furthermore, only those with the highest HDL-C profile increased the risk of heart failure by 1.5-fold (95% CI 1.07-2.06).

CONCLUSIONS

The trajectories and risk of CVD identified in this study demonstrated that despite a decline in LDL-C over time, a significant amount of residual risk for CVD remains. These findings suggest the impact of the increasing trend of TG on CVD risk and emphasize the importance of assessing the lipid levels at each visit and undertaking potential interventions that lower triglyceride concentrations to reduce the residual risk of CVD, even among those with the optimal LDL-C level.

24-hour Serum Creatinine Variation Associates with Short- and Long-Term All-Cause Mortality: A Real-World Insight into Early Detection of Acute Kidney Injury

Real-world evidence describing the variation in serum creatinine (S-Cre) within 24 hours and its prognostic value is unknown. We enrolled 14 912 adults who received two S-Cre measurements within 24 hours at a tertiary hospital between 2003 and 2016. The study population was divided into four groups according to the hospital service settings where the baseline and second S-Cre were measured: Group 1, Outpatient-to-Outpatient; Group 2, Outpatient-to-ED (emergency department) or Inpatient; Group 3, ED-to-ED or Inpatient; and Group 4, Inpatient-to-Inpatient. The main predictors were the difference between the two S-Cre measurements (ΔS-Cre) and the percent change (ΔS-Cre%). The main outcomes were 30-day, 1-year, or 3-year all-cause mortality. A total of 6753 and 8159 patients with an increase and a decrease within-day ΔS-Cre, respectively. Among 6753 patients who had deteriorating ΔS-Cre or ΔS-Cre%, the adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) for 1-year all-cause mortality for each 0.1 mg/dL or 5% change in S-Cre was 1.09 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.07, 1.11) and 1.03 (95% CI: 1.03, 1.04). In 8159 patients with improving ΔS-Cre%, the aHR was 0.97 (95% CI: 0.94, 1.00). Groups 3 and 4 had statistically significant positive linear relationships between deteriorating ΔS-Cre% and 30-day and 3-year mortality. The optimal cut-offs for deteriorating ΔS-Cre% for predicting 30-day mortality were approximately 22% for Group 3 and 20% for Group 4. Inpatient within-day deteriorating ΔS-Cre or ΔS-Cre% above 0.2 mg/dL or 20%, respectively, is associated with all-cause mortality. Monitoring 24-hour S-Cre variation identifies acute kidney injury earlier than the conventional criteria.

Prevalence and risk factors of chronic kidney disease and diabetic kidney disease in a central Chinese urban population: a cross-sectional survey

Background

This study was conducted to evaluate and update the current prevalence of and risk factors for chronic kidney disease (CKD) and diabetic kidney disease (DKD) in a central Chinese urban population.

Methods

From December 2017 to June 2018, a total of 5231 subjects were randomly enrolled from 3 communities in 3 districts of Zhengzhou. CKD was defined as estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) < 60 mL/min.1.73m² or urinary albumin to creatinine ratio ≥ 30 mg/g (albuminuria). Diabetic subjects with systolic blood pressure > 140 mmHg, albuminuria or an eGFR less than 60 mL/min/1.73 m² were classified as having DKD. Participants completed a questionnaire assessing lifestyle and relevant medical history, and blood and urine specimens were taken. Serum creatinine, uric acid, total cholesterol, triglycerides, low-density lipoprotein, high-density lipoprotein and urinary albumin were assessed. The age- and sex-adjusted prevalences of CKD and DKD were calculated, and risk factors associated with the presence of reduced eGFR, albuminuria, DKD, severity of albuminuria and progression of reduced renal function were analyzed by binary and ordinal logistic regression.

Results

The overall adjusted prevalence of CKD was 16.8% (15.8–17.8%) and that of DKD was 3.5% (3.0–4.0%). Decreased renal function was detected in 132 participants (2.9, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.5–3.2%), whereas albuminuria was found in 858 participants (14.9, 95% CI: 13.9–15.9%). In all participants with diabetes, the prevalence of reduced eGFR was 6.3% (95% CI = 3.9–8.6%) and that of albuminuria was 45.3% (95% CI = 40.4–50.1%). The overall prevalence of CKD in participants with diabetes was 48.0% (95% CI = 43.1–52.9%). The results of the binary and ordinal logistic regression indicated that the factors independently associated with a higher risk of reduced eGFR and albuminuria were older age, sex, smoking, alcohol consumption, overweight, obesity, diabetes, hypertension, dyslipidemia and hyperuricemia.

Conclusions

Our study shows the current prevalence of CKD and DKD in residents of Central China. The high prevalence suggests an urgent need to implement interventions to relieve the high burden of CKD and DKD in China.

Association of lipid accumulation product trajectories with 5-year incidence of type 2 diabetes in Chinese adults: a cohort study

Background

Lipid accumulation product (LAP) is an index describing the overaccumulation of lipid. Baseline LAP was used for type 2 diabetes (T2D) prediction in previous studies. But the longitudinal trajectories of LAP, which reflect the efficacy of patients' lipid-lowering treatment and lifestyle improvement, have rarely been studied. The aim of this study is to explore the association of lipid accumulation product trajectories with 5-year incidence of type 2 diabetes.

Methods

This cohort study included 4508 non-diabetic participants with a median age of 42 years. Using the group-based trajectory modeling (GBTM), LAP from 2011 to 2016 were determined and identified as three trajectories: low (n = 3639), moderate (n = 800), and high (n = 69). Baseline LAP was divided into groups by percentiles and tertiles respectively for the comparison of LAP trajectories. The associations between 5-year T2D incidence and LAP trajectories and baseline LAP were both assessed by generalized linear models.

Results

From 2011 to 2016, 169 participants developed T2D (the 5-year incidence of 3.8%). For participants with low, moderate, and high trajectories, the incidence of T2D was 2.1, 10.0, and 15.9%, respectively. A significant trend was observed in the relative risks (RRs) of 5-year incident T2D in participants with moderate (RR, 1.95; 95% CI: 1.41-2.70) and high LAP trajectory (RR, 2.20; 95% CI: 1.12-4.30) in the fully adjusted model (p for trend< 0.001). However, there were no statically significant trends in RRs in different tertiles of baseline LAP found after full adjustments.

Conclusion

The trajectories of LAP has an independent effect on 5-year T2D incidence beyond LAP measured at baseline.

Trajectories of Lipids Profile and Incident Cardiovascular Disease Risk: A Longitudinal Cohort Study

Background

The association between low‐density lipoprotein cholesterol, high‐density lipoprotein cholesterol, and triglycerides with cardiovascular disease (CVD) has been well studied. No previous studies considered trajectory of these lipids jointly. This study aims to characterize longitudinal trajectories of lipid profile jointly and examine its impact on incident CVD.

Methods and Results

A total of 9726 participants (6102 men), aged from 20 to 58 years who had lipids repeatedly measured 3 to 9 times, were included in the study. Three distinct trajectories were identified using the multivariate latent class growth mixture model: inverse U‐shape (18.72%; n=1821), progressing (66.03%; n=6422), and U‐shape (15.25%; n=1483). Compared with the U‐shape class, the adjusted hazard ratio and 95% CI were 1.33 (1.05–1.68) and 1.49 (1.14–1.95) for the progressing and inverse U‐shape class, respectively. The area under the curve was calculated using the integral of the model parameters. In the adjusted model, total and incremental area under the curve of lipid profile were significantly associated with CVD risk. Furthermore, the model‐estimated levels and linear slopes of lipids were calculated at each age point according to the latent class growth mixture model model parameters and their first derivatives, respectively. After adjusting for covariates, standardized odds ratio of slope increases gradually from 1.11 (1.02, 1.21) to 1.21 (1.12, 1.31) at 20 to 40 years and then decreased to 1.02 (0.94, 1.11) until 60 years.

Conclusions

These results indicate that the lipids profile trajectory has a significant impact on CVD risk. Age between 20 and 42 years is a crucial period for incident CVD, which has implications for early lipids intervention.

Circulating Lactonase Activity but Not Protein Level of PON-1 Predicts Adverse Outcomes in Subjects with Chronic Kidney Disease

The burden of cardiovascular disease and death in chronic kidney disease (CKD) outpaces that of the other diseases and is not adequately described by traditional risk factors alone. Diminished activity of paraoxonase (PON)-1 is associated with increased oxidant stress, a common feature underlying the pathogenesis of CKD. We aimed to assess the prognostic value of circulating PON-1 protein and PON lactonase activity on adverse clinical outcomes across various stages and etiologies of CKD. Circulating PON-1 protein levels and PON lactonase activity were measured simultaneously in patients with CKD as well as a cohort of apparently healthy non-CKD subjects. Both circulating PON-1 protein levels and PON lactonase activity were significantly lower in CKD patients compared to the non-CKD subjects. Similarly, across all stages of CKD, circulating PON-1 protein and PON lactonase activity were significantly lower in patients with CKD compared to the non-CKD controls. Circulating PON lactonase activity, but not protein levels, predicted future adverse clinical outcomes, even after adjustment for traditional risk factors. The combination of lower circulating protein levels and higher activity within the CKD subjects were associated with the best survival outcomes. These findings demonstrate that diminished circulating PON lactonase activity, but not protein levels, predicts higher risk of future adverse clinical outcomes in patients with CKD.