Long-Term Follow-Up of a Community Assignment, One-Time Endoscopic Screening Study of Esophageal Cancer in China

Association of Intensive Endoscopic Burden with Esophageal Cancer Detection: A Nationwide Cohort Study

Background/Aims

Early diagnosis of esophageal cancer (EC) remains challenging despite the increasing frequency of endoscopic screenings globally. The rapidly increasing number of endoscopic screenings performed over a certain period might influence diagnostic performance. This study evaluated the association between the number of endoscopic screenings and EC detection rates in a nationwide cohort.

Methods

This retrospective population-based study used the Korean National Cancer Screening Program database, comprising 32,774,742 males and females aged ≥40 years between 2015 and 2019. Negative binomial regression model and least-squares mean evaluation were used to assess the association between month of the year and EC detection rates.

Results

This study enrolled 28,032,590 participants who underwent upper endoscopy. The number of participants in the fourth quarter (October to December: 10,923,142 [39.0%]) was 2.1 times higher than that in the first quarter (January to March: 5,085,087 [18.1%]); this trend continued for all 5 years. Contrarily, detection rates for EC in the fourth quarter (0.08/1,000 person) were half that in the first quarter (0.15/1,000 person). The odds of detecting EC were lowest in November; in 2015 the odds were 0.57 (95% confidence interval, 0.41 to 0.79; p=0.001) times lower and in 2016, they were 0.51 (95% confidence interval, 0.37 to 0.68; p<0.001) times lower compared to January. The predicted detection rates showed a decreasing trend toward the end of the year (p>0.05 for all).

Conclusions

The workload of endoscopists increased excessively with the rising number of endoscopies toward the end of the year, which was reflected by the decreased EC detection rates during this period.

Esophageal Candida Infection and Esophageal Cancer Risk in Patients With Achalasia

Importance

Patients with achalasia face a higher risk of developing esophageal cancer (EC), but the surveillance strategies for these patients remain controversial due to the long disease duration and the lack of identified risk factors.

Objective

To investigate the prevalence of esophageal Candida infection among patients with achalasia and to assess the association of Candida infection with EC risk within this population.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This retrospective cohort study included patients with achalasia diagnosed at or referred for treatment and monitoring to the Erasmus University Medical Center in Rotterdam, the Netherlands, between January 1, 1980, and May 31, 2024. Data analysis was conducted from August 1 to October 31, 2024.

Exposure

Esophageal Candida infection.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary outcomes were the prevalence of esophageal Candida infection and its association with EC development among patients with achalasia. Associations were estimated using time-dependent Cox proportional hazards regression models with esophageal Candida infection as a time-varying covariate, adjusting for age at diagnosis and sex.

Results

This study included 234 patients with achalasia (median [IQR] age at diagnosis, 45 [32-63] years; 117 [50%] male), with a median follow-up time of 13 (4-22) years. Esophageal Candida infection was identified in 29 patients (12%), while EC was observed in 24 patients (10%). Esophageal cancer risk analysis was performed for 207 patients with 2 or more consecutive endoscopy follow-up visits (median [IQR] age at diagnosis, 43 [32-60] years; 104 [50%] male). The median (IQR) follow-up time for this subgroup was 16 (9-26) years. Among these patients, esophageal Candida infection was independently associated with an increased risk of EC (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR], 8.24 [95% CI, 2.97-22.89]). Additionally, age at diagnosis (AHR, 1.06 [95% CI, 1.03-1.10]) and male sex (AHR, 3.34 [95% CI, 1.08-10.36]) were independently associated with EC risk.

Conclusions and Relevance

This retrospective cohort study found that prior esophageal Candida infection, older age at diagnosis, and male sex were associated with increased risk of EC among patients with achalasia. These findings provide an important rationale for optimizing the monitoring of patients with achalasia.

Community prevention and standardized clinical treatment jointly improve cancer outcome: Real-world evidence from an esophageal cancer patient cohort study

Extensive efforts have been put into reducing the heavy burden of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) in China. However, the joint impact of prevention and treatment on the long-term overall survival (OS) of ESCC patients remains largely unknown. We consecutively recruited 13,255 ESCC patients from two Chinese centers: the Northern center, located in a high-risk area with abundant screening programs; and the Southern center, situated in a non-high-risk area with improved clinical practices. Inter-center comparison, longitudinal intra-center comparison, and a simulation analysis were conducted to investigate the influence of tumor downstaging and high-quality clinical treatment on OS. During a follow-up period of 12.52 years, the Northern center exhibited higher median survival than the Southern center (6.22 vs. 3.15 years; HRadjusted = 0.73, 95% CI: 0.69-0.77). Mediation analysis demonstrated that its OS advantage was largely (77.7%) attributed to earlier TNM stage (stage 0-II: 51.3% vs. 24.6%). In temporal analyses, patient survival in the Southern center gradually improved (median survival during 2015-2018 vs. 2009-2014: 3.58 vs. 2.93 years; HRadjusted = 0.86, 95% CI: 0.79-0.94), coinciding with the progress of treatment-related indices (completeness of TNM staging in discharge diagnosis [from 53.7% to 99.6%], adoption of minimally invasive esophagectomy [from 0.0% to 51.1%] and right thoracic esophagectomy [from 12.4% to 86.4%], etc.). Simulation analysis further demonstrated that integrating both downstaging and high-quality treatment would lead to the best survival. Tumor downstaging and high-quality clinical treatment have a joint impact on ESCC patient survival. Establishing a comprehensive strategy that integrates cancer prevention with optimal clinical treatment is crucial for alleviating the ESCC burden.

Detection of a novel DNA methylation marker panel for esophageal cancer diagnosis using circulating tumor DNA

BACKGROUND

Esophageal cancer (ECa) is one of the most deadly cancers, with increasing incidence worldwide and poor prognosis. While endoscopy is recommended for the detection of ECa in high-risk individuals, it is not suitable for large-scale screening due to its invasiveness and inconvenience.

METHODS

In this study, a novel gene methylation panel was developed for a blood-based test, and its diagnostic efficacy was evaluated using a cohort of 304 participants (203 cases, 101 controls). The assessment focused on the DNA methylation levels of SEPTIN9, tissue factor pathway inhibitor 2 (TFPI2), and the fragile histidine triad gene (FHIT) in patients with ECa, benign esophageal disease, and healthy controls. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was generated for the panel to calculate the area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, and 95% confidence intervals (CIs), along with a comparison to the gold standard of pathological examination. The consistency between biomarker and pathological diagnosis was evaluated with kappa analysis conducted with IBM SPSS Statistics. The Chi-square test or Fisher's exact test was utilized to assess the association of test positivity with demographic characteristics.

RESULTS

In patients with ECa, SEPTIN9, TFPI2, and FHIT DNA methylation levels were significantly higher compared to those with benign esophageal disease or healthy controls. The panel demonstrated promising potential as a noninvasive tool for distinguishing malignant tumors from both healthy controls and benign esophageal diseases, achieving an area under the ROC curve of 0.925 (95% CI: 0.889-0.952), with a sensitivity of 79.8% [95% CI 73.6-85.1%] and specificity of 95.0% [95% CI 88.8-98.4%]. In particular, the panel showed exceptional diagnostic efficiency for stage 0, I, and II cancer patients with sensitivity at 69.0, 75.5%, and 78.9%, respectively. The comparison revealed a Kappa value of 0.725 between RT-PCR testing and the established gold standard of pathological examination, indicating a high level of consistency. Additionally, there was no bias in diagnostic efficiency based on age, gender, or the presence of other malignancies (non-esophageal cancers).

CONCLUSIONS

The study's findings suggested that the DNA methylation biomarkers panel holds promise as a non-invasive and convenient diagnostic test for ECa. The panel's ability to distinguish malignant tumors from benign esophageal diseases, coupled with its high sensitivity and specificity, presented opportunities to enhance the over-all diagnosis of high-risk population when in conjunction with existing detection methods.

Current status and perspectives of esophageal cancer: a comprehensive review

Esophageal cancer (EC) continues to be a significant global health concern, with two main subtypes: esophageal squamous cell carcinoma and esophageal adenocarcinoma. Prevention and changes in etiology, improvements in early detection, and refinements in the treatment have led to remarkable progress in the outcomes of EC patients in the past two decades. This seminar provides an in-depth analysis of advances in the epidemiology, disease biology, screening, diagnosis, and treatment landscape of esophageal cancer, focusing on the ongoing debate surrounding multimodality therapy. Despite significant advancements, EC remains a deadly disease, underscoring the need for continued research into early detection methods, understanding the molecular mechanisms, and developing effective treatments.

Position statement of the World Endoscopy Organization: Role of endoscopy in screening, diagnosis, and treatment of esophageal superficial squamous neoplasia

Esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) remains a significant global health challenge, being the sixth leading cause of cancer mortality with pronounced geographic variability. The incidence rates range from 125 per 100,000 in northern China to 1-1.5 per 100,000 in the United States, driven by environmental and lifestyle factors such as tobacco and alcohol use, dietary habits, and pollution. Major modifiable risk factors include tobacco and alcohol consumption, with a synergistic risk increase when combined. Nonmodifiable risk factors include previous diagnoses of head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (H&N SCC), achalasia, and prior radiotherapy. Prevention strategies must be tailored to specific regional burdens to efficiently allocate medical and financial resources. Gastrointestinal endoscopy is crucial in reducing ESCC burden through early detection and characterization of neoplastic changes, such as high-grade dysplasia. Early diagnosis significantly improves survival rates, while endoscopic resection of noninvasive dysplasia can prevent ESCC onset, reducing treatment burden for advanced disease. Postresection surveillance can detect high-risk metachronous lesions. Despite these benefits, endoscopic prevention faces challenges, including the lack of high-level evidence supporting its efficacy, opportunity costs, the need for specialized training and techniques, and the requirement for advanced technology investments. This Position Statement from the World Endoscopy Organization (WEO) aims to address these challenges, supplying recommendations for the exploitation of endoscopic resources regarding the possible role of screening, quality, and training for the detection, characterization, resection, and surveillance of ESCC.

Global esophageal cancer epidemiology in 2022 and predictions for 2050: A comprehensive analysis and projections based on GLOBOCAN data

BACKGROUND

The burden of esophageal cancer varies across different regions of the world. The aim of this study is to analyze the current burden of esophageal cancer in 185 countries in 2022 and to project the trends up to the year 2050.

METHODS

We extracted data on primary esophageal cancer cases and deaths from the GLOBOCAN 2022 database, which includes data from 185 countries. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) and mortality rates (ASMR) per 100,000 person-years were calculated by stratifying by Human Development Index (HDI) levels and regions. Considering changes in population size and age structure, we assumed that the risks of incidence and mortality remain constant at the levels of 2022 to forecast the number of new cases and deaths from esophageal cancer globally by 2050.

RESULTS

In 2022, an estimated 511,054 people were diagnosed with esophageal cancer globally, and 445,391 died from the disease. The global ASIR and ASMR for esophageal cancer were 5.00 and 4.30 per 100,000, respectively. The highest rates were observed in East Africa (7.60 for incidence, 7.20 for mortality per 100,000), East Asia (7.60 for incidence, 5.90 for mortality per 100,000), Southern Africa (6.30 for incidence, 5.90 for mortality per 100,000), and South Central Asia (5.80 for incidence, 5.50 for mortality per 100,000). Among the 185 countries worldwide, esophageal cancer was among the top five causes of cancer incidence in 18 countries and among the top five causes of cancer mortality in 25 countries. In 2022, China had 224,012 new cases and 187,467 deaths from esophageal cancer, accounting for approximately 43.8% and 42.1% of the global total, respectively, which is higher than the proportion of China's population to the global population (17.9%). ASIR was 8.30 per 100,000, and ASMR was 6.70 per 100,000. The highest burden of esophageal cancer was in high HDI countries, with new cases and deaths accounting for 51.3% and 50.0% of the global total, respectively. The ASIR and ASMR were highest in the high HDI group (6.10 and 5.10 per 100,000, respectively), also exceeding the global averages. There was a trend of decreasing mortality to incidence ratio with increasing HDI, but no correlation was observed between HDI and ASIR or ASMR. In all regions worldwide, the incidence and mortality rates were higher in males than in females (with a male-to-female ASR ratio ranging from 1.10 to 28.7). Compared to 2022, it is projected that by 2050, the number of new esophageal cancer cases will increase by approximately 80.5%, and deaths will increase by 85.4% due to population growth and aging.

CONCLUSIONS

The burden of esophageal cancer remains heavy. Adopting a healthy lifestyle, including reducing tobacco and alcohol intake, avoiding moldy foods, and increasing intake of fresh fruits and vegetables, can help reduce the risk of stomach and esophageal cancer. In addition, the development and implementation of evidence-based and effective public health policies are critical to reducing the global disease burden of esophageal cancer.

Effect of an Endoscopy Screening on Upper Gastrointestinal Cancer Mortality: A Community-Based Multicenter Cluster Randomized Clinical Trial

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Population-based observational studies suggest that endoscopic screening may reduce upper gastrointestinal cancer mortality. We aimed to quantify the effect of endoscopy screening.

METHODS

This is a community-based, multicenter, cluster randomized clinical trial conducted in both high-risk and non-high-risk areas of China. Randomization and recruitment occurred between 2015 and 2017, with follow-up conducted until 2022. The intervention was an invitation to receive endoscopic screening, as opposed to receiving usual care (unscreened). In non-high-risk areas, only participants assessed as high-risk by risk scores in the screening group were invited for endoscopic screening. The primary outcome was the cumulative risk of death from upper gastrointestinal cancer, adjusted for baseline characteristics and cluster effects.

RESULTS

A total of 234,635 participants were included in the intention-to-screen analysis, with a median age of 52 years. In high-risk areas, 64,836 individuals from 81 clusters were randomized to the screening group, and 59,379 individuals from 82 clusters were randomized to the control group. In non-high-risk areas, 58,367 individuals from 92 clusters were randomized to the screening group, 52,053 individuals from 90 clusters were randomized to the control group. Among high-risk areas, 480 (adjusted cumulative risk, 0.77%) died due to upper gastrointestinal cancers within 7.5 years in the screening group vs 545 (0.99%) deaths in the control group (risk ratio, 0.78; 95% confidence interval, 0.66-0.91). Among non-high-risk areas, adjusted risk was 0.26% (146 deaths) in the screening group and 0.30% (149 deaths) in the control group (risk ratio, 0.86; 95% confidence interval, 0.65-1.13).

CONCLUSIONS

An invitation to endoscopic screening reduced upper gastrointestinal cancer mortality in high-risk areas. In non-high-risk areas, an invitation to endoscopic screening based on risk scores did not significantly decrease upper gastrointestinal cancer deaths, but longer follow-up time was required. (Chinese Clinical Trial Registry Identifier: ChiCTR-EOR-16008577.).

Burden of gastrointestinal cancers among adolescent and young adults in Asia-Pacific region: trends from 1990 to 2019 and future predictions to 2044

BACKGROUND

Gastrointestinal cancer is a significant cause of cancer incidence and mortality. Nevertheless, the epidemiology of the burden among adolescents and young adults (AYAs, aged 15-39 years) remains limited in the Asia-Pacific region, despite the region's significant population. This study aims to explore the gastrointestinal cancer burden among AYAs in the Asia-Pacific region for the year 2019, while also analysing trends from 1990 to 2019 and projecting future trends up to 2044.

METHODS

Annual case numbers, age-standardized rates of incidence, death, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and their estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) for gastrointestinal cancers were derived from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019. Trends over the next 25 years have also been predicted.

RESULTS

In 2019, there were 117,714 incident cases, 61,578 deaths and 3,483,053 DALYs due to gastrointestinal cancers in the Asia-Pacific region, accounting for 68.5%, 67.6% and 72.4%, respectively, of global gastrointestinal cancers in this population. The highest age-standardized rates occurred in countries with a middle Socio-demographic Index. From 1990 to 2019, there was a decline in the age-standardized rates of incidence, death and DALY attributed to gastrointestinal cancers, with EAPC of -1.10, -2.48 and -2.44, respectively. These rates are expected to stabilize over 25 years, with notable variations in individual gastrointestinal cancers.

CONCLUSIONS

Gastrointestinal cancers among AYAs in the Asia-Pacific region have posed a significant burden over the past 30 years and are expected to persist in the coming years.

Oesophageal cancer

Oesophageal cancer is the seventh leading cause of cancer mortality worldwide. Two major pathological subtypes exist: oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma and oesophageal adenocarcinoma. Epidemiological studies in the last decade have shown a gradual increase in the incidence of oesophageal adenocarcinoma worldwide. The prognosis of oesophageal cancer has greatly improved due to breakthroughs in screening, surgical procedures, and novel treatment modalities. The success achieved with combined modality therapies, including surgery, chemotherapy, and radiotherapy, to treat locally advanced oesophageal cancer is particularly notable. Immunotherapy has become a crucial treatment for oesophageal cancer, with immune checkpoint inhibitor-based therapies now established as the standard of care in adjuvant and metastatic first-line settings. This Seminar provides an overview of advances in the screening, diagnosis, and treatment of oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma and oesophageal adenocarcinoma, with a particular focus on neoadjuvant therapies for locally advanced oesophageal cancer and immune checkpoint inhibitor-based therapies.

Assessing the validity of METS-IR for predicting the future onset of diabetes: an analysis using time-dependent receiver operating characteristics

BACKGROUND

The Metabolic Insulin Resistance Score (METS-IR) is a non-invasive proxy for insulin resistance (IR) that has been newly developed in recent years and has been shown to be associated with diabetes risk. Our aim was to assess the predictive value of METS-IR for the future development of diabetes and its temporal differences in people of different sex, age, and body mass index (BMI).

METHODS

The current study included 15,453 baseline non-diabetic subjects in the NAGALA cohort and then grouped according to the World Health Organization's (WHO) recommended criteria for age and BMI. Multivariate Cox regression and time-dependent receiver operator characteristics (ROC) curves were used to analyze the value of METS-IR in assessing and predicting the risk of diabetes in people of different sexes, ages, and BMIs.

RESULTS

373 individuals developed diabetes during the observation period. By multivariate COX regression analysis, the development of future diabetes was significantly associated with increased METS-IR, and this positive association was stronger in women than in men and in individuals < 45 years than in individuals ≥ 45 years; while no significant differences were observed between non-obese and overweight/obesity individuals. Using time-dependent ROC analysis we also assessed the predictive value of METS-IR for future diabetes at a total of 11-time points between 2 and 12 years. The results showed that METS-IR had a higher predictive value for the future development of diabetes in women or individuals < 45 years of age compared to men or individuals ≥ 45 years of age for almost the entire follow-up period. Furthermore, across different BMI categories, we also found that in the short term (3-5 years), METS-IR had a higher predictive value for the development of diabetes in individuals with overweight/obesity, while in the medium to long term (6-12 years), METS-IR was more accurate in predicting the development of diabetes in non-obese individuals.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study showed that METS-IR was independently associated with the development of future diabetes in a non-diabetic population. METS-IR was a good predictor of diabetes, especially for women and individuals < 45 years old for predicting the future risk of developing diabetes at all times.

Prediction of lymphovascular invasion in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma by computed tomography-based radiomics analysis: 2D or 3D ?

BACKGROUND

To compare the performance between one-slice two-dimensional (2D) and whole-volume three-dimensional (3D) computed tomography (CT)-based radiomics models in the prediction of lymphovascular invasion (LVI) status in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC).

METHODS

Two hundred twenty-four patients with ESCC (158 LVI-absent and 66 LVI-present) were enrolled in this retrospective study. The enrolled patients were randomly split into the training and testing sets with a 7:3 ratio. The 2D and 3D radiomics features were derived from the primary tumors' 2D and 3D regions of interest (ROIs) using 1.0 mm thickness contrast-enhanced CT (CECT) images. The 2D and 3D radiomics features were screened using inter-/intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC) analysis, Wilcoxon rank-sum test, Spearman correlation test, and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator, and the radiomics models were built by multivariate logistic stepwise regression. The performance of 2D and 3D radiomics models was assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. The actual clinical utility of the 2D and 3D radiomics models was evaluated by decision curve analysis (DCA).

RESULTS

There were 753 radiomics features from 2D ROIs and 1130 radiomics features from 3D ROIs, and finally, 7 features were retained to construct 2D and 3D radiomics models, respectively. ROC analysis revealed that in both the training and testing sets, the 3D radiomics model exhibited higher AUC values than the 2D radiomics model (0.930 versus 0.852 and 0.897 versus 0.851, respectively). The 3D radiomics model showed higher accuracy than the 2D radiomics model in the training and testing sets (0.899 versus 0.728 and 0.788 versus 0.758, respectively). In addition, the 3D radiomics model has higher specificity and positive predictive value, while the 2D radiomics model has higher sensitivity and negative predictive value. The DCA indicated that the 3D radiomics model provided higher actual clinical utility regarding overall net benefit than the 2D radiomics model.

CONCLUSIONS

Both 2D and 3D radiomics features can be employed as potential biomarkers to predict the LVI in ESCC. The performance of the 3D radiomics model is better than that of the 2D radiomics model for the prediction of the LVI in ESCC.

Analysis of the incidence and mortality trends of esophageal cancer in cancer registry areas of China and Japan

This study aims to analyze the prevalence trend of esophageal cancer in Japan and China to provide suggestions for the prevention and treatment of esophageal cancer. The results showed that the incidence rate for the years 2010-2018 significantly decreased with an APC of 5.66%, and the mortality rate from 2010 to 2015 had an APC of -5.87% in China. However, the incidence rate of Japanese women showed an upward trend, with an APC of 4.09% from 2010 to 2019. The mortality rate of esophageal cancer in Japan showed a downward trend, with an APC of -2.96% from 2010 to 2021. From 2010 to 2018, Chinese esophageal squamous cell carcinoma accounted for the highest proportion, accounting for 85.96%, with the largest distribution in the middle, accounting for 47.25%. Patients are mostly diagnosed at stage III, and the relative survival rate from 2012 to 2015 was 30.3%. Japan also has the highest proportion of squamous cell carcinoma, and the lesions are also mostly located in the middle segment. While Japanese esophageal cancer patients are mostly diagnosed at stage I, and the relative survival rate was 41.5% in Japan from 2009 to 2011. The results of this article indicate that the current prevalence of esophageal cancer in China and Japan is generally declining, and the quality of life of patients is gradually improving, but effective screening and prevention strategies are still needed to reduce the burden of this disease.

Burden of gastrointestinal cancers among working-age population over past thirty years in China

BACKGROUND

Although gastrointestinal (GI) cancers have been becoming a great public health concern in China, there is currently a lack of comprehensive literature on the overall burden and changing trends of GI cancers in the working-age population.

AIM

To assess the burden of GI cancers and to examine the overall, age- and gender-specific trends among the working-age population in China from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS

Data were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The burden of GI cancers was indicated by incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized mortality rate, and age-standardized DALYs rate. Trends in the burden of GI cancers from 1990 to 2019 were examined using annual percent change and average annual percent change with Joinpoint regression models.

RESULTS

For overall GI cancers, a declining trend was observed in the ASIR, age-standardized mortality rate, and age-standardized DALYs rate, with reductions of 0.74%, 2.23%, and 2.22%, respectively, from 1999 to 2019 in the Chinese working-age population. However, an increasing trend was observed in the ASIR for overall GI cancers from 2016-2019. The number of either incident cases, mortality cases, and DALYs was higher for colon/rectum cancer and liver cancer in younger participants but lower for esophageal, gallbladder, biliary tract, pancreatic, and stomach cancer among older subjects. Moreover, sex disparity in the GI cancers burden was also examined over 30 years.

CONCLUSION

The total burden of GI cancers remained heavy among the working-age population in China, although declining trends were observed from 1999 to 2019. Disparities in the GI cancers burden existed between sexes, age groups, and cancer types. Population-based precision prevention strategies are needed to tackle GI cancers among working-age individuals, considering the age, sex, and cancer type disparities in China.

Burden of six major types of digestive system cancers globally and in China

BACKGROUND

Digestive system cancers constitute a significant number of cancer cases, but their burden is not uniform. As Global Cancer Observatory (GLOBOCAN) 2022 has recently updated its estimates of cancer burden, we aimed to investigate the burden of six major digestive system cancers both worldwide and in China, along with geographical and temporal variations in cancer-specific incidence and mortality.

METHODS

We extracted data on primary cancers of the esophagus, stomach, colorectum, liver, pancreas, and gallbladder from the GLOBOCAN database for 2022. Age-standardized incidence and mortality rates were calculated and stratified by sex, country, region, and human development index (HDI). We used the 2022 revision of the World Population Prospects (United Nations) to obtain demographic data for various age groups in China from 1988 to 2012 and used the joinpoint model and the average annual percentage change (AAPC) to analyze cancer incidence trends in China.

RESULTS

In 2022, the estimated global incidence of digestive system cancers reached 4,905,882, with an estimated 3,324,774 cancer-related deaths. Colorectal cancer was most prevalent in terms of incidence and mortality. There was a significant correlation between the burden of gastrointestinal cancers and country HDI. From 1988 to 2012, the incidence of esophageal, gastric, and liver cancers declined in China, whereas colorectal and pancreatic cancer incidences continued to increase. By 2050, colorectal and liver cancers are projected to remain the leading cancer types in China in terms of incidence and mortality, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Digestive system cancers remain a significant public health challenge globally and in China. Although progress has been made in the prevention and control of some cancers, the burden of digestive system cancers persists. The implementation of tertiary prevention strategies must be intensified to reduce the incidence and mortality of digestive system cancers, mitigating their impact on public health.

Importance of early detection of esophageal cancer before the tumor progresses too much for effective treatment

This editorial comments on an article by Qu et al published in the World Journal of Gastrointestinal Oncology. It focuses on the importance of early detection of esophageal cancer, including recurrence or secondary malignancy after chemoradiotherapy (CRT). Endoscopic resection is the first choice for treatment for esophageal cancer remaining within the mucous membrane, while surgery or radical CRT are treatment options for advanced stages depending on the patient's general condition and desire. Although these treatments are potentially curative, they are more invasive than endoscopic resection. Early-stage esophageal cancer is often asymptomatic and difficult to detect. Uniform periodic endoscopy is unrealistic. Although less burdensome tests exist, including liquid biopsy and urinary biomarkers, these have not yet been widely used in clinical practice. Early detection is important after radical CRT because the local recurrence rate is higher than that after surgery. However, endoscopic resection or photodynamic therapy is indicated if detected in the early stages, and positive results have been reported. Early detection of esophageal cancer is crucial. Endoscopy is the main diagnostic method; however, new and less burdensome methods should be established to ensure early treatment for patients with esophageal cancer.

Racial, Ethnic, and Sex Differences in Incidence-Based Mortality of Aggregate Upper Gastrointestinal Cancers

INTRODUCTION

Current strategies for upper gastrointestinal (UGI) cancer screening primarily target cancer-specific risk, with the strongest focus on esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC). However, all UGI cancers are amendable to screening and early detection with an upper endoscopic examination. This study assesses and explores incidence-based mortality (IBM) for cumulative UGI cancers, aiming to identify race-based or sex-based disparities.

METHODS

We used Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Research data to analyze patients diagnosed with EAC, esophageal squamous cell carcinoma, cardia gastric cancer, noncardia gastric cancer, or colorectal adenocarcinoma from 2000 to 2019. Age-adjusted IBM was calculated as a rate per 100,000 population and stratified by sex and race/ethnicity. We also compared UGI cancer IBM with that of colorectal cancer, a cancer with established population-wide endoscopic screening guidelines.

RESULTS

Cumulative IBM for UGI cancers was 8.40 (95% confidence interval [CI] 8.34-8.46). The highest cancer-specific IBM rates were for EAC (2.26, 95% CI 2.23-2.29), followed by noncardia gastric cancer (2.07, 95% CI 2.04-2.10), cardia gastric cancer (1.60, 95% CI 1.57-1.62), esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (1.21, 95% CI 1.19-1.23), and miscellaneous UGI cancer (1.27, 95% CI 1.13-1.40). UGI cancer IBM was highest among Black men (16.43, 95% CI 15.97-16.89), American Indian/Alaska Native men (15.23, 95% CI 13.75-16.82), and Hispanic men (13.76, 95% CI 13.42-14.11). These rates are significantly greater than among White men (12.81, 95% CI 12.68-12.95).

DISCUSSION

UGI cancers impose a significantly higher mortality burden on non-White population subgroups that are not currently targeted by any systematic screening approach.

Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease and risk of esophageal cancer in patients with diabetes mellitus: a nationwide cohort study

Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) is closely associated with type 2 diabetes and a developing several cancers including esophageal cancer (EC). However, the association between MASLD and EC in diabetic patients has not been investigated. Therefore, we aimed to investigate the relation between MASLD and developing EC in diabetic patients. This was a population-based retrospective cohort study of data from the Korean National Health Insurance Service (NHIS). A total of 1,904,468 subjects diagnosed with diabetes who underwent NHIS-provided health checkups from 2009 to 2012 were included. We constructed a Cox proportional hazard model for the association of fatty liver index (FLI) and the risk of EC stratified by potential confounders. Over a mean follow-up duration of 6.9 years, the incidence of EC was higher in the high (≥60) FLI group compared to the low (<30) FLI group (14.4 vs. 13.7 event per 100,000 person-years). The risk of EC correlated with the degree of FLI, particularly in older (P = 0.002), female (P = 0.033), non-smoking (P = 0.002), and non-drinking patients (P = 0.025). Among obese patients, the risk of EC was not associated with FLI; however, the risk of EC was higher in the high FLI group in non-obese patients. Lean MASLD patients had the highest risk of EC (adjusted hazard ratio 1.78; 95% confidence interval, 1.5-2.13). MASLD was associated with an increased risk of EC in diabetic patients, and lean MASLD has the highest risk. Further studies are required to determine the causal relationship between MASLD and EC.

Discovery and validation of combined biomarkers for the diagnosis of esophageal intraepithelial neoplasia and esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

Early diagnosis and intervention of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) can improve the prognosis. The purpose of this study was to identify biomarkers for ESCC and esophageal precancerous lesions (intraepithelial neoplasia, IEN). Based on the proteomic and genomic data of esophageal tissue including previously reported data, up-regulated proteins with copy number amplification in esophageal cancer were screened as candidate biomarkers. Five proteins, including KDM2A, RAD9A, ECT2, CYHR1 and TONSL, were confirmed by immunohistochemistry on ESCC and normal esophagus (NE). Then, we investigated the expression of 5 proteins in 236 participants (60 NEs, 93 IENs and 83 ESCCs) which were randomly divided into training set and test set. When distinguishing ESCC from NE, the area under curve (AUC) of the multiprotein model was 0.940 in the training set, while the lowest AUC of a protein was 0.735. In the test set, the results were similar. When distinguishing ESCC from IEN or distinguishing IEN from NE, the diagnostic efficiency of the multi-protein models were also improved compared with that of single protein. Our findings suggest that combined detection of KDM2A, RAD9A, ECT2, CYHR1 and TONSL can be used as potential biomarkers for the early diagnosis of ESCC and precancerous lesion development prediction. SIGNIFICANCE: Candidate biomarkers including KDM2A, RAD9A, ECT2, CYHR1 and TONSL screened by integrating genomic and proteomic data from the esophagus can be used as potential biomarkers for the early diagnosis of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma and precancerous lesion development prediction.

Genome-wide methylation profiling identified methylated KCNA3 and OTOP2 as promising diagnostic markers for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Early detection of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) can considerably improve the prognosis of patients. Aberrant cell-free DNA (cfDNA) methylation signatures are a promising tool for detecting ESCC. However, available markers based on cell-free DNA methylation are still inadequate. This study aimed to identify ESCC-specific cfDNA methylation markers and evaluate the diagnostic performance in the early detection of ESCC.

METHODS

We performed whole-genome bisulfite sequencing (WGBS) for 24 ESCC tissues and their normal adjacent tissues. Based on the WGBS data, we identified 21,469,837 eligible CpG sites (CpGs). By integrating several methylation datasets, we identified several promising ESCC-specific cell-free DNA methylation markers. Finally, we developed a dual-marker panel based on methylated KCNA3 and OTOP2 , and then, we evaluated its performance in our training and validation cohorts.

RESULTS

The ESCC diagnostic model constructed based on KCNA3 and OTOP2 had an AUC of 0.91 [95% CI: 0.85-0.95], and an optimal sensitivity and specificity of 84.91% and 94.32%, respectively, in the training cohort. In the independent validation cohort, the AUC was 0.88 [95% CI: 0.83-0.92], along with an optimal sensitivity of 81.5% and specificity of 92.9%. The model sensitivity for stage I-II ESCC was 78.4%, which was slightly lower than the sensitivity of the model (85.7%) for stage III-IV ESCC.

CONCLUSION

The dual-target panel based on cfDNA showed excellent performance for detecting ESCC and might be an alternative strategy for screening ESCC.

MiR-3682-3p promotes esophageal cancer progression by targeting FHL1 and activating the Wnt/β-catenin signaling pathway

BACKGROUND

Esophageal cancer (EC) is highly ranked among all cancers in terms of its incidence and mortality rates. MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are considered to play key regulatory parts in EC. Multiple research studies have indicated the involvement of miR-3682-3p and four and a half LIM domain protein 1 (FHL1) in the achievement of tumors. The aim of this research was to clarify the significance of these genes and their possible molecular mechanism in EC.

METHODS

Data from a database and the tissue microarray were made to analyze the expression and clinical significance of miR-3682-3p or FHL1 in EC. Reverse transcription quantitative PCR and Western blotting were used to detect the expression levels of miR-3682-3p and FHL1 in EC cells. CCK8, EdU, wound healing, Transwell, flow cytometry, and Western blotting assays were performed to ascertain the biological roles of miR-3682-3p and FHL1 in EC cells. To confirm the impact of miR-3682-3p in vivo, a subcutaneous tumor model was created in nude mice. The direct interaction between miR-3682-3p and FHL1 was demonstrated through a luciferase assay, and the western blotting technique was employed to assess the levels of crucial proteins within the Wnt/β-catenin pathway.

RESULTS

The noticeable increase in the expression of miR-3682-3p and the decrease in the expression of FHL1 were observed, which correlated with a negative impact on the patients' overall survival. Upregulation of miR-3682-3p expression promoted the growth and metastasis of EC, while overexpression of FHL1 partially reversed these effects. Finally, miR-3682-3p motivates the Wnt/β-catenin signal transduction by directly targeting FHL1.

CONCLUSION

MiR-3682-3p along the FHL1 axis activated the Wnt/β-catenin signaling pathway and thus promoted EC malignancy.

The Role of Screening and Early Detection in Upper Gastrointestinal Cancers

Upper gastrointestinal cancers are among the leading causes of cancer deaths worldwide with exceptionally poor prognosis, which is largely attributable to frequently delayed diagnosis. Although effective screening is critical for early detection, the highly variable incidence of upper gastrointestinal cancers presents challenges, rendering universal screening programs suboptimal in most populations globally. Optimal strategies in regions of modest incidence, such as the United States, require a targeted approach, focused on high-risk individuals based on demographic, familial, and clinicopathologic risk factors. Assessment of underlying precancerous lesions has key implications for risk stratification and informing clinical decisions to improve patient outcomes.

Comparative study of cancer profiles between 2020 and 2022 using global cancer statistics (GLOBOCAN)

Background

The International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) released the latest estimates of the global burden of cancer. We present a comparison of cancer profiles between 2020 and 2022, leveraging data from the Global Cancer Statistics (GLOBOCAN).

Methods

Cancer incidence and mortality data were sourced from two different years, 2020 and 2022, in the GLOBOCAN database. We tracked changes in age-standardized incidence and mortality rates, as well as estimated numbers of new cancer cases and deaths of the 15 most common cancer types globally and in China between 2020 and 2022. Additionally, we conducted comparisons to assess alterations in the cancer burden and variations in mortality-to-incidence ratio (MIR) across different regions and countries for both 2020 and 2022.

Results

Lung cancer remained the most common cancer and the leading cause of cancer death worldwide. The new cases of thyroid cancer witnessed a sharp increase in 2022. Conversely, the numbers of new cancer cases and deaths from stomach and esophageal cancer decreased significantly in 2022. The geographic distribution of cancer incidence and mortality across six continents in 2022 largely mirrored that of 2020. Higher Human Development Index (HDI) levels in countries corresponded with elevated rates of cancer incidence and mortality, consistent with the previous year. Among 185 countries or territories, China's age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) ranked 64th and its age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) ranked 68th, aligning with global averages. Lung cancer continued to impose the greatest burden of incidence and mortality. Stomach, breast, and esophageal cancers showed declines in both case counts and ASIR. Noteworthy reductions in both ASMR and absolute mortality numbers were observed in liver, stomach, and esophageal cancers. The global MIR decreased from 0.516 in 2020 to 0.488 in 2022. MIR trends indicated an upward trajectory with decreasing HDI levels in both 2022 and 2020. While Canada, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, and the United Kingdom demonstrated increasing MIRs, China exhibited the most significant decrease, followed by Russia and the United States.

Conclusions

The global landscape of cancer incidence and mortality in 2022 reflects ongoing trends observed in 2020. Cancer burdens vary notably across countries with differing socioeconomic statuses. Decreases in stomach, liver, and esophageal cancer cases and deaths signify progress in cancer control efforts. The decrease in the global MIRs highlights potential improvements in cancer management.

Genome-Scale Multimodal Analysis of Cell-Free DNA Whole-Methylome Sequencing for Noninvasive Esophageal Cancer Detection

PURPOSE

Simultaneous profiling of cell-free DNA (cfDNA) methylation and fragmentation features to improve the performance of cfDNA-based cancer detection is technically challenging. We developed a method to comprehensively analyze multimodal cfDNA genomic features for more sensitive esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) detection.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Enzymatic conversion-mediated whole-methylome sequencing was applied to plasma cfDNA samples extracted from 168 patients with ESCC and 251 noncancer controls. ESCC characteristic cfDNA methylation, fragmentation, and copy number signatures were analyzed both across the genome and at accessible cis-regulatory DNA elements. To distinguish ESCC from noncancer samples, a first-layer classifier was developed for each feature type, the prediction results of which were incorporated to construct the second-layer ensemble model.

RESULTS

ESCC plasma genome displayed global hypomethylation, altered fragmentation size, and chromosomal copy number alteration. Methylation and fragmentation changes at cancer tissue-specific accessible cis-regulatory DNA elements were also observed in ESCC plasma. By integrating multimodal genomic features for ESCC detection, the ensemble model showed improved performance over individual modalities. In the training cohort with a specificity of 99.2%, the detection sensitivity was 81.0% for all stages and 70.0% for stage 0-II. Consistent performance was observed in the test cohort with a specificity of 98.4%, an all-stage sensitivity of 79.8%, and a stage 0-II sensitivity of 69.0%. The performance of the classifier was associated with the disease stage, irrespective of clinical covariates.

CONCLUSION

This study comprehensively profiles the epigenomic landscape of ESCC plasma and provides a novel noninvasive and sensitive ESCC detection approach with genome-scale multimodal analysis.

Latest insights into the global epidemiological features, screening, early diagnosis and prognosis prediction of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

As a highly invasive carcinoma, esophageal cancer (EC) was the eighth most prevalent malignancy and the sixth leading cause of cancer-related death worldwide in 2020. Esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) is the major histological subtype of EC, and its incidence and mortality rates are decreasing globally. Due to the lack of specific early symptoms, ESCC patients are usually diagnosed with advanced-stage disease with a poor prognosis, and the incidence and mortality rates are still high in many countries, especially in China. Therefore, enormous challenges still exist in the management of ESCC, and novel strategies are urgently needed to further decrease the incidence and mortality rates of ESCC. Although the key molecular mechanisms underlying ESCC pathogenesis have not been fully elucidated, certain promising biomarkers are being investigated to facilitate clinical decision-making. With the advent and advancement of high-throughput technologies, such as genomics, proteomics and metabolomics, valuable biomarkers with high sensitivity, specificity and stability could be identified for ESCC. Herein, we aimed to determine the epidemiological features of ESCC in different regions of the world, especially in China, and focused on novel molecular biomarkers associated with ESCC screening, early diagnosis and prognosis prediction.

Effectiveness of Endoscopic Screening on Esophageal Cancer Incidence and Mortality: A 9-Year Report of the Endoscopic Screening for Esophageal Cancer in China (ESECC) Randomized Trial

PURPOSE

To evaluate the effectiveness of endoscopic screening against incidence of and mortality from esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC).

METHODS

From January 2012 to September 2016, we conducted a community-based cluster randomized controlled trial involving permanent residents age 45-69 years in a high-risk region for ESCC in northern China. A total of 668 targeted villages were randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to the screening group (offered Lugol's chromoendoscopy) or control group (no screening). Intention-to-treat and per-protocol analyses were performed to compare esophageal cancer (EC) incidence and mortality between the two groups. The per-protocol analysis adjusted for nonadherence to the screening procedure.

RESULTS

A total of 33,847 participants were included in the analysis: 17,104 in the screening group, 15,165 (88.7%) of whom underwent screening, and 16,743 in the control group. During a maximum follow-up of 9 years, EC incidence in the screening and control groups were 60.9 and 72.5 per 100,000 person-years, respectively; mortality in the screening and control groups were 29.7 and 32.4 per 100,000 person-years, respectively. Compared with the control group, the incidence and mortality of the screening group reduced by 19% (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 0.81 [95% CI, 0.60 to 1.09]) and 18% (aHR, 0.82 [95% CI, 0.53 to 1.26]), respectively, in the intention-to-treat analysis; and by 22% (aHR, 0.78 [95% CI, 0.56 to 1.10]) and 21% (aHR, 0.79 [95% CI, 0.49 to 1.30]), respectively, in the per-protocol analysis.

CONCLUSION

With a 9-year follow-up, our trial suggests that chromoendoscopic screening induces modest reductions in EC incidence and mortality. A more efficient strategy for EC screening and subsequent patient management should be established to guarantee the effectiveness of endoscopic screening.

Systematic review and meta-analysis: the efficacy and safety of radiofrequency ablation for early superficial esophageal squamous cell neoplasia

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Esophageal squamous cell neoplasia (ESCN) is predominant in Asia. Endoscopic mucosal resection and endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) have both been recommended worldwide, however the application of endoscopic radiofrequency ablation (RFA) for treatment of early superficial ESCN remains inconclusive. We conducted a meta-analysis to study the effectiveness of RFA for early superficial ESCN.

METHODS

Three major bibliographic databases were reviewed for the enrollment of case series and cohort trials prior to August 23, 2023. We included adults diagnosed with early superficial ESCN who had been receiving endoscopic RFA or ESD if the treatments were available. Our focus was on the 12-month histological complete response rate (CR) and 3-month histological CR, as well as the acute and late postoperative adverse events (AEs) rate during the at follow-up periods.

RESULTS

Nine studies were enrolled for qualitative synthesis of narrative review, with eight trials involving a total of 447 participants for analysis. The pooled 12-month and 3-month histological CR were 0.83 (95% CI, 0.59-0.94, I2 = 80%) and 0.74 (95% CI, 0.67-0.80, I2 = 0%), respectively. As for safety, the acute and late postoperative AEs were 0.11 (95% CI, 0.05-0.26, I2 = 68%) and 0.19 (95% CI, 0.14-0.26, I2 = 0%), respectively. In subgroup analysis, the incidence of bleeding, laceration and perforation after endoscopic RFA showed 0.06, 0.06 and 0.02, respectively. When compared with ESD, RFA showed lower acute AEs and late AEs without any obvious significance.

CONCLUSIONS

For early superficial ESCN, endoscopic RFA achieved both higher 12-month complete remission and late complication postoperatively when compared to 3-month histological CR and acute AEs separately, while the stricture was encountered most commonly. The choice between endoscopic RFA and ESD remains inconclusive.

Performance of Prediction Models for Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma in General Population: A Systematic Review and External Validation Study

INTRODUCTION

Prediction models for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) need to be proven effective in the target population before they can be applied to population-based endoscopic screening to improve cost-effectiveness. We have systematically reviewed ESCC prediction models applicable to the general population and performed external validation and head-to-head comparisons in a large multicenter prospective cohort including 5 high-risk areas of China (Fei Cheng, Lin Zhou, Ci Xian, Yang Zhong, and Yan Ting).

METHODS

Models were identified through a systematic review and validated in a large population-based multicenter prospective cohort that included 89,753 participants aged 40-69 years who underwent their first endoscopic examination between April 2017 and March 2021 and were followed up until December 31, 2022. Model performance in external validation was estimated based on discrimination and calibration. Discrimination was assessed by C-statistic (concordance statistic), and calibration was assessed by calibration plot and Hosmer-Lemeshow test.

RESULTS

The systematic review identified 15 prediction models that predicted severe dysplasia and above lesion (SDA) or ESCC in the general population, of which 11 models (4 SDA and 7 ESCC) were externally validated. The C-statistics ranged from 0.67 (95% confidence interval 0.66-0.69) to 0.70 (0.68-0.71) of the SDA models, and the highest was achieved by Liu et al (2020) and Liu et al (2022). The C-statistics ranged from 0.51 (0.48-0.54) to 0.74 (0.71-0.77), and Han et al (2023) had the best discrimination of the ESCC models. Most models were well calibrated after recalibration because the calibration plots coincided with the x = y line.

DISCUSSION

Several prediction models showed moderate performance in external validation, and the prediction models may be useful in screening for ESCC. Further research is needed on model optimization, generalization, implementation, and health economic evaluation.

Potential value of CT-based comprehensive nomogram in predicting occult lymph node metastasis of esophageal squamous cell paralaryngeal nerves: a two-center study

PURPOSE

The aim of this study is to construct a combined model that integrates radiomics, clinical risk factors and machine learning algorithms to predict para-laryngeal lymph node metastasis in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma.

METHODS

A retrospective study included 361 patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma from 2 centers. Radiomics features were extracted from the computed tomography scans. Logistic regression, k nearest neighbor, multilayer perceptron, light Gradient Boosting Machine, support vector machine, random forest algorithms were used to construct radiomics models. The receiver operating characteristic curve and The Hosmer-Lemeshow test were employed to select the better-performing model. Clinical risk factors were identified through univariate logistic regression analysis and multivariate logistic regression analysis and utilized to develop a clinical model. A combined model was then created by merging radiomics and clinical risk factors. The performance of the models was evaluated using ROC curve analysis, and the clinical value of the models was assessed using decision curve analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 1024 radiomics features were extracted. Among the radiomics models, the KNN model demonstrated the optimal diagnostic capabilities and accuracy, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.84 in the training cohort and 0.62 in the internal test cohort. Furthermore, the combined model exhibited an AUC of 0.97 in the training cohort and 0.86 in the internal test cohort.

CONCLUSION

A clinical-radiomics integrated nomogram can predict occult para-laryngeal lymph node metastasis in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma and provide guidance for personalized treatment.

Effects of joint screening for prostate, lung, colorectal, and ovarian cancer - results from a controlled trial

Background

Although screening is widely used to reduce cancer burden, untargeted cancers are frequently missed after single cancer screening. Joint cancer screening is presumed as a more effective strategy to reduce overall cancer burden.

Methods

Gender-specific screening effects on PLCO cancer incidence, PLCO cancer mortality, all-neoplasms mortality and all-cause mortality were evaluated, and meta-analyses based on gender-specific screening effects were conducted to achieve the pooled effects. The cut-off value of time-dependent receiver-operating-characteristic curve of 10-year combined PLCO cancer risk was used to reclassify participants into low- and high-risk subgroups. Further analyses were conducted to investigate screening effects stratified by risk groups and screening compliance.

Results

After a median follow-up of 10.48 years for incidence and 16.85 years for mortality, a total of 5,506 PLCO cancer cases, 1,845 PLCO cancer deaths, 3,970 all-neoplasms deaths, and 14,221 all-cause deaths were documented in the screening arm, while 6,261, 2,417, 5,091, and 18,516 outcome-specific events in the control arm. Joint cancer screening did not significantly reduce PLCO cancer incidence, but significantly reduced male-specific PLCO cancer mortality (hazard ratio and 95% confidence intervals [HR(95%CIs)]: 0.88(0.82, 0.95)) and pooled mortality [0.89(0.84, 0.95)]. More importantly, joint cancer screening significantly reduced both gender-specific all-neoplasm mortality [0.91(0.86, 0.96) for males, 0.91(0.85, 0.98) for females, and 0.91(0.87, 0.95) for meta-analyses] and all-cause mortality [0.90(0.88, 0.93) for male, 0.88(0.85, 0.92) for female, and 0.89(0.87, 0.91) for meta-analyses]. Further analyses showed decreased risks of all-neoplasm mortality was observed with good compliance [0.72(0.67, 0.77) for male and 0.72(0.65, 0.80) for female] and increased risks with poor compliance [1.61(1.40, 1.85) for male and 1.30(1.13, 1.40) for female].

Conclusion

Joint cancer screening could be recommended as a potentially strategy to reduce the overall cancer burden. More compliance, more benefits. However, organizing a joint cancer screening not only requires more ingenious design, but also needs more attentions to the potential harms.

Trial registration

NCT00002540 (Prostate), NCT01696968 (Lung), NCT01696981 (Colorectal), NCT01696994 (Ovarian).

Somatic CDKN2A copy number variations are associated with the prognosis of esophageal squamous cell dysplasia

BACKGROUND

Somatic copy number variations (SCNVs) in the CDKN2A gene are among the most frequent events in the dysplasia-carcinoma sequence of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma. However, whether CDKN2A SCNVs are useful biomarkers for the risk stratification and management of patients with esophageal squamous cell dysplasia (ESCdys) is unknown. This study aimed to investigate the characteristics and prognostic value of CDKN2A SCNVs in patients with mild or moderate (m/M) ESCdys.

METHODS

This study conducted a prospective multicenter study of 205 patients with a baseline diagnosis of m/M ESCdys in five high-risk regions of China (Ci County, Hebei Province; Yanting, Sichuan Province; Linzhou, Henan Province; Yangzhong, Jiangsu Province; and Feicheng, Shandong Province) from 2005 to 2019. Genomic DNA was extracted from paraffin biopsy samples and paired peripheral white blood cells from patients, and a quantitative polymerase chain reaction assay, P16-Light, was used to detect CDKN2A copy number. The cumulative regression and progression rates of ESCdys were evaluated using competing risk models.

RESULTS

A total of 205 patients with baseline m/M ESCdys were enrolled. The proportion of ESCdys regression was significantly lower in the CDKN2A deletion cohort than in the diploid and amplification cohorts (18.8% [13/69] vs. 35.0% [28/80] vs. 51.8% [29/56], P  <0.001). In the univariable competing risk analysis, the cumulative regression rate was statistically significantly lower ( P = 0.008), while the cumulative progression rate was higher ( P = 0.017) in ESCdys patients with CDKN2A deletion than in those without CDKN2A deletion. CDKN2A deletion was also an independent predictor of prognosis in ESCdys ( P = 0.004) in the multivariable analysis.

CONCLUSION

The results indicated that CDKN2A SCNVs are associated with the prognosis of ESCdys and may serve as potential biomarkers for risk stratification.

Esophageal cancer screening, early detection and treatment: Current insights and future directions

Esophageal cancer ranks among the most prevalent malignant tumors globally, primarily due to its highly aggressive nature and poor survival rates. According to the 2020 global cancer statistics, there were approximately 604000 new cases of esophageal cancer, resulting in 544000 deaths. The 5-year survival rate hovers around a mere 15%-25%. Notably, distinct variations exist in the risk factors associated with the two primary histological types, influencing their worldwide incidence and distribution. Squamous cell carcinoma displays a high incidence in specific regions, such as certain areas in China, where it meets the cost-effectiveness criteria for widespread endoscopy-based early diagnosis within the local population. Conversely, adenocarcinoma (EAC) represents the most common histological subtype of esophageal cancer in Europe and the United States. The role of early diagnosis in cases of EAC originating from Barrett's esophagus (BE) remains a subject of controversy. The effectiveness of early detection for EAC, particularly those arising from BE, continues to be a debated topic. The variations in how early-stage esophageal carcinoma is treated in different regions are largely due to the differing rates of early-stage cancer diagnoses. In areas with higher incidences, such as China and Japan, early diagnosis is more common, which has led to the advancement of endoscopic methods as definitive treatments. These techniques have demonstrated remarkable efficacy with minimal complications while preserving esophageal functionality. Early screening, prompt diagnosis, and timely treatment are key strategies that can significantly lower both the occurrence and death rates associated with esophageal cancer.

Cancer incidence and mortality in China, 2022

Background

The National Cancer Center (NCC) of China regularly reports the nationwide statistics on cancer incidence and mortality in China. The International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) calculates and publishes the cancer burden of countries around the world every two years. To ensure consistency between the actual surveillance data in China and the data published by IARC, NCC has received approval from the National Health Commission and IARC to simultaneously release the cancer burden data for China in GLOBOCAN 2022.

Methods

There were a total of 700 registries reporting high-quality data on cancer incidence and mortality across China in 2018, of which 106 registries with continuous monitoring from 2010 to 2018 were used to establish an age-period-cohort model to simulate the trend of cancer incidence and mortality and to estimate the incidence and mortality in China in 2022. In addition, we analyzed the temporal trends of age-standardized cancer incidence and mortality from 2000 to 2018 using data from 22 continuous cancer registries.

Results

It was estimated about 4,824,700 new cancer cases and 2,574,200 new cancer deaths occurred in China in 2022. Cancers of the lung, colon-rectum, thyroid, liver and stomach were the top five cancer types, accounting for 57.42% of new cancer cases. Cancers of the lung, liver, stomach, colon-rectum and esophagus were the five leading causes of cancer deaths, accounting for 67.50% of total cancer deaths. The crude rate and age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) were 341.75 per 100,000 and 201.61 per 100,000, respectively. The crude mortality rate was 182.34 per 100,000 and the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) was 96.47 per 100,000. The ASIR of all cancers combined increased by approximately 1.4% per year during 2000-2018, while the ASMR decreased by approximately 1.3% per year. We observed decreasing trends in ASIR and ASMR for cancers of the esophagus, stomach, and liver, whereas the ASIR increased significantly for cancers of the thyroid, prostate, and cervix.

Conclusions

Cancer remains a major public health concern in China, with a cancer profile that reflects the coexistence of developed and developing regions. Sustained implementation of prevention and control measures has resulted in significant reductions in the incidence and mortality rates of certain historically high incidence cancers, such as esophageal, stomach and liver cancers. Adherence to the guidelines of the Healthy China Action Plan and the Cancer Prevention and Control Action Plan, along with continued efforts in comprehensive risk factor control, cancer screening, early diagnosis and treatment, and standardization of diagnostic and therapeutic protocols, are key strategies to effectively mitigate the increasing cancer burden by 2030.

The Effect of Nationwide Organized Cancer Screening Programs on Gastric Cancer Mortality: A Synthetic Control Study

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Nationwide organized gastric cancer (GC) screening programs have been running for decades in South Korea and Japan. This study conducted a quasi-experimental analysis to assess the population impact of these programs on GC mortality.

METHODS

We used the flexible synthetic control method (SCM) to estimate the effect of the screening programs on age-standardized GC mortality and other upper gastrointestinal (UGI) diseases (esophageal cancer and peptic ulcer) among people aged ≥40 years. World Health Organization mortality data and country-level covariates from the World Bank and the Global Burden of Diseases study were used for the analyses. We compared postintervention trends in outcome with the counterfactual trend of the synthetic control and estimated average postintervention rate ratios (RRs) with associated 95% confidence intervals (CIs). A series of sensitivity analyses were conducted.

RESULTS

The preintervention fits were acceptable for the analyses of South Korea and Japan's GC mortality but poor for Japan's other UGI disease mortality. The average postintervention RRs were 0.83 (95% CI, 0.71-0.96) for GC mortality and 0.72 (95% CI, 0.57-0.90) for other UGI disease mortality in South Korea. The RR reached 0.59 by the 15th year after the initiation of nationwide screening. For Japan, the average RRs were 0.97 (95% CI, 0.88-1.07) for GC mortality and 0.93 (95% CI, 0.68-1.28) for other UGI disease mortality. Sensitivity analysis reveals the result for Japan may potentially be biased.

CONCLUSIONS

South Korea's nationwide GC screening has apparent benefits, whereas the Japanese program's effectiveness is uncertain. The experiences of South Korea and Japan could serve as a reference for other countries.

Development of a Survival Nomogram for Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma Patients: a Population-Based Analysis

PURPOSE

In this study, we developed a prognostic nomogram for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) patients.

METHODS

Patients diagnosed with ESCC from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database (1975-2017) and a local hospital were enrolled in this retrospective cohort study. Prognoses were analyzed using the R language software, and the predictive power of the model was then assessed by the Harrell concordance index (C-index) and the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve.

RESULTS

In total, 2915 ESCC patients from SEER database were divided into training and validation cohorts. Multivariate analysis revealed that sex, marital status, tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) stage, surgery, chemotherapy, and radiation all showed a significant association with overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) (also with tumor grade). These characteristics were employed to build a nomogram. The C-index of the nomogram for OS and CSS prediction was 0.743 and 0.748 for the training cohort, which were superior to the predictive power of the 7th TNM staging system. The AUCs of the nomogram for predicting 2- and 5-year OS were 0.805 and 0.812, respectively, and the AUCs for CSS were 0.811 and 0.821, respectively. ROC and calibration curves of data from the SEER internal validation set and of data from our hospital showed that this model had good accuracy for predicting the prognosis of ESCC patient.

CONCLUSION

The nomogram developed in this study provides a useful tool for accurately estimating OS and CSS for ESCC patients.

Geographic, sex and socioeconomic disparities in esophageal cancer incidence in China: A population-based study

Geographic and sex differences in esophageal cancer have been reported in China, but data are lacking at the local level. We aimed to investigate geographic and sex disparities in esophageal cancer incidence among Chinese counties and whether county-level socioeconomic status was associated with these variations. We obtained esophageal cancer data from 2015 to 2017 for 782 counties from population-based cancer registries in China. We calculated age-standardized incidence rates and male-to-female incidence rate ratios (IRRs) by county. We performed hotspot analysis to identify geographical clusters. We used negative binomial regression models to analyze the association between incidence rates and county-level socioeconomic factors. There were significant geographic disparities in esophageal cancer incidence, with 8.1 times higher rate in the 90th-percentile county than in the 10th-percentile county (23.7 vs 2.9 per 100 000 person-years). Clusters of elevated rates were prominent across north-central China. Nationally, men had 2.9 times higher incidence of esophageal cancer than women. By county, the male-to-female IRRs ranged from 1.1 to 21.1. Clusters of high male-to-female IRRs were observed in northeast China. Rurality (IRR 1.16, 95% CI 1.10-1.22), per capita gross domestic product (IRR 0.95, 0.92-0.98) and percentage of people with a high school diploma (IRR 0.86, 0.84-0.87) in a county were significantly associated with esophageal cancer incidence. The male-to-female IRRs were higher in counties with higher socioeconomic status. Substantial differences in incidence rates and sex ratios of esophageal cancer exist between Chinese counties, and county-level socioeconomic status was associated with these variations. These findings may inform interventions to reduce these disparities.

Ultra-miniature dual-wavelength spatial frequency domain imaging for micro-endoscopy

Significance

There is a need for a cost-effective, quantitative imaging tool that can be deployed endoscopically to better detect early stage gastrointestinal cancers. Spatial frequency domain imaging (SFDI) is a low-cost imaging technique that produces near-real time, quantitative maps of absorption and reduced scattering coefficients, but most implementations are bulky and suitable only for use outside the body.

Aim

We aim to develop an ultra-miniature SFDI system comprising an optical fiber array (diameter 0.125 mm) and a micro camera (1 × 1    mm package) to displace conventionally bulky components, in particular, the projector.

Approach

First, we fabricated a prototype with an outer diameter of 3 mm, although the individual component dimensions could permit future packaging to a < 1.5    mm diameter. We developed a phase-tracking algorithm to rapidly extract images with fringe projections at three equispaced phase shifts to perform SFDI demodulation.

Results

To validate the performance, we first demonstrate comparable recovery of quantitative optical properties between our ultra-miniature system and a conventional bench-top SFDI system with an agreement of 15% and 6% for absorption and reduced scattering, respectively. Next, we demonstrate imaging of absorption and reduced scattering of tissue-mimicking phantoms providing enhanced contrast between simulated tissue types (healthy and tumour), done simultaneously at wavelengths of 515 and 660 nm. Using a support vector machine classifier, we estimate that sensitivity and specificity values of > 90 % are feasible for detecting simulated squamous cell carcinoma.

Conclusions

This device shows promise as a cost-effective, quantitative imaging tool to detect variations in optical absorption and scattering as indicators of cancer.

Decoding tumor stage by peritumoral and intratumoral radiomics in resectable esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

PURPOSE

To evaluate the potential application of radiomics in predicting Tumor-Node-Metastasis (TNM) stage in patients with resectable esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC).

METHODS

This retrospective study included 122 consecutive patients (mean age, 57 years; 27 women). Corresponding tumor of interest was identified on axial arterial-phase CT images with manual annotation. Radiomics features were extracted from intra- and peritumoral regions. Features were pruned to train LASSO regression model with 93 patients to construct a radiomics signature, whose performance was validated in a test set of 29 patients. Prognostic value of radiomics-predicted TNM stage was estimated by survival analysis in the entire cohort.

RESULTS

The radiomics signature incorporating one intratumoral and four peritumoral features was significantly associated with TNM stage. This signature discriminated tumor stage with an area under curve (AUC) of 0.823 in the training set, with similar performance in the test set (AUC 0.813). Recurrence-free survival (RFS) was significantly different between different radiomics-predicted TNM stage groups (Low-risk vs high-risk, log-rank P = 0.004). Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses revealed that radiomics-predicted TNM stage was an independent preoperative factor for RFS.

CONCLUSIONS

The proposed radiomics signature combing intratumoral and peritumoral features was predictive of TNM stage and associated with prognostication in ESCC.

Challenge and future of cancer screening in China: Insights from esophageal cancer screening practice

Cancer stands as a prominent public health concern in China, with elusive intervention targets due to unidentified high-risk causal factors for most cancers. Consequently, emphasis has shifted towards screening, diagnosing, and treating early cancer cases within the general population. However, China faces considerable obstacles in its cancer prevention and control efforts, attributing to the complexity and heterogeneity of the occurrence, progression, and prognosis of malignant tumors across populations, time, and regions. Taking esophageal cancer screening practices as an example, this review outlines the importance and assessment of cancer screening, delineating major challenges in China's cancer prevention and control: 1) limited comprehension of cancer's natural history; 2) lack of "China Evidence" supporting screening effectiveness and value; 3) compromised efficiency and accuracy in current screening modality; and 4) insufficient sustainability of the current screening practices and translation of relevant scientific research achievements. To address these challenges, we propose potential coping strategies: 1) establishing tailored technologies and pathways for cancer prevention and control based on population-based and clinical epidemiological studies using high-quality designs; 2) breaking conventional constraints to establish a novel cancer screening strategy aligned with real-world needs; and 3) establishing enhanced communication platforms among scientific research teams, policymakers, and industrial institutions to foster collaboration and innovation.

Aberrant epithelial cell interaction promotes esophageal squamous-cell carcinoma development and progression

Epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT) and proliferation play important roles in epithelial cancer formation and progression, but what molecules and how they trigger EMT is largely unknown. Here we performed spatial transcriptomic and functional analyses on samples of multistage esophageal squamous-cell carcinoma (ESCC) from mice and humans to decipher these critical issues. By investigating spatiotemporal gene expression patterns and cell-cell interactions, we demonstrated that the aberrant epithelial cell interaction via EFNB1-EPHB4 triggers EMT and cell cycle mediated by downstream SRC/ERK/AKT signaling. The aberrant epithelial cell interaction occurs within the basal layer at early precancerous lesions, which expands to the whole epithelial layer and strengthens along the cancer development and progression. Functional analysis revealed that the aberrant EFNB1-EPHB4 interaction is caused by overexpressed ΔNP63 due to TP53 mutation, the culprit in human ESCC tumorigenesis. Our results shed new light on the role of TP53-TP63/ΔNP63-EFNB1-EPHB4 axis in EMT and cell proliferation in epithelial cancer formation.

Increased risk of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma in patients with squamous dysplasia: a nationwide cohort study in the Netherlands

Squamous dysplasia is the histological precursor of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). The optimal management for distinct squamous dysplasia grades remains unclear because the corresponding risk of developing ESCC is unknown. We aimed to assess the ESCC risk in patients with esophageal squamous dysplasia in a Western country. This nationwide cohort study included all patients with esophageal squamous dysplasia, diagnosed between 1991 and 2020 in the Dutch nationwide pathology databank (Palga). Squamous dysplasia was divided in mild-to-moderate dysplasia (mild, low-grade, and moderate dysplasia) and higher-grade dysplasia (high-grade dysplasia, severe dysplasia, carcinoma in situ). ESCC were identified in Palga and the Netherlands Cancer Registry. The primary endpoint was diagnosis of prevalent (≤6 months) and incident (>6 months after squamous dysplasia) ESCC. In total, 873 patients (55% male, aged 68 years SD ± 13.2) were diagnosed with esophageal squamous dysplasia, comprising mild-to-moderate dysplasia (n = 456), higher-grade dysplasia (n = 393), and dysplasia not otherwise specified (n = 24). ESCC was diagnosed in 77 (17%) patients with mild-to-moderate dysplasia (49 prevalent, 28 incident ESCC) and in 162 (41%) patients with higher-grade dysplasia (128 prevalent, 34 incident ESCC). After excluding prevalent ESCC, the annual risk of ESCC was 4.0% (95% CI: 2.7-5.7%) in patients with mild-to-moderate dysplasia and 8.5% (95% CI: 5.9-11.7%) in patients with higher-grade dysplasia. All patients with squamous dysplasia, including those with mild-to-moderate dysplasia, have a substantial risk of developing ESCC. Consequently, endoscopic surveillance of the esophageal mucosa or endoscopic resection of dysplasia should be considered for patients with mild-to-moderate dysplasia in Western countries. KEY MESSAGES What is already known on this topic? Squamous dysplasia is the histological precursor of ESCC and is divided in distinct grades, based on the proportion of the squamous epithelium with histopathological abnormalities. In Western countries, the optimal management for distinct squamous dysplasia grades remains unclear because the corresponding risk of developing ESCC is unknown. What this study adds The ESCC risk of patients with squamous dysplasia was increased for all patients with squamous dysplasia in a Western country; 2.1% for patients with mild dysplasia, 5.1% for low-grade dysplasia, and 5.2% for moderate dysplasia. Increasing grades of squamous dysplasia were associated with an increased ESCC risk. How this study might affect research, practice, or policy We recommend that endoscopic follow-up or treatment should be considered in all patients with esophageal squamous dysplasia in Western countries: 1) for patients with mild, low-grade, and moderate dysplasia, endoscopic surveillance with careful inspection with narrow band imaging or dye-based chromoendoscopy of the esophageal mucosa is indicated; and 2) for patients with high-grade dysplasia, severe dysplasia and carcinoma in situ adequate endoscopic staging and in case of suspected neoplasia endoscopic treatment should be performed.

Global, regional, and national lifetime probabilities of developing cancer in 2020

The lifetime risk of cancer is a measure of the cumulative risk of cancer over a specific age range and has a clear, intuitive appeal. However, comparative assessments of cancer-specific risk across populations are limited. We used the adjusted for multiple primaries method to estimate the lifetime risk of cancer from the obtained data from GLOBOCAN for 185 countries/regions for the year 2020, alongside all-cause mortality and population data from the United Nations. The estimated global lifetime risk of cancer from birth to death was 25.10% (95% confidence interval (CI): 25.08%-25.11%) in 2020; the risk was 26.27% (95% CI: 26.24%-26.30%) in men and 23.96% (95% CI: 23.93%-23.98%) in women. Significant differences were observed in the risks between countries/regions within world areas and by the human development level. The lifetime risk of cancer was 38.48%, 25.38%, 11.36%, and 10.34% in countries/regions with very high, high, medium, and low Human Development Index, respectively. Globally, prostate and breast cancers were associated with the greatest lifetime risks among men and women (4.65% and 5.90%, respectively). The lifetime risk of cancer decreased with age, with a remaining risk of 12.61% (95% CI: 12.60%-12.63%) from the age of 70 years. The lifetime risk from birth to death translates to approximately one in four persons developing cancer, with men and women having similar risk levels. The identified age-specific variations in cancer risk at the population level can provide crucial information to support targeted cancer prevention and health system planning.

Changes in Geographic Variation and Socioeconomic Inequalities in Esophageal Cancer Mortality in China, 1973-2017

BACKGROUND

Geographic variability in esophageal cancer has been reported in China, but data are lacking at the local level. We aimed to investigate changes in disparities in esophageal cancer-related mortality among Chinese counties and whether county-level socioeconomic status was associated with this variation.

METHODS

We used data from a nationwide survey and population-based cancer registries to calculate esophageal cancer-related mortality rates for 782 Chinese counties for the periods of 1973-1975 and 2015-2017. We performed hotspot analysis to identify spatial clusters. We used a multivariable negative binomial regression model to estimate the associations between county-level socioeconomic factors and mortality.

RESULTS

From 1973-1975 to 2015-2017, the age-standardized esophageal cancer-related mortality rate decreased from 27 to 8 per 100,000 person-years in China. By county, 577 (74%) of 782 counties experienced decreasing mortality. Geographic disparities in mortality substantially narrowed, with the gap in mortality rates between 90th and 10th percentile counties decreasing from 55 per 100,000 person-years in 1973-1975 to 16 in 2015-2017. However, clusters of elevated rates persisted across north-central China. Rurality [adjusted mortality rate ratio (MRR) 1.15; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.10-1.21], per capita gross domestic product (adjusted MRR, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.91-0.98), and percentage of people with a high-school diploma (adjusted MRR, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.84-0.87) in a county were significantly associated esophageal cancer-related mortality rates.

CONCLUSIONS

China has made substantial progress in reducing esophageal cancer-related mortality and disparities, but the intercounty differences remain large.

IMPACT

Continued efforts are needed to address the geographical and socioeconomic disparities in esophageal cancer.

Relationship between esophageal squamous cell carcinoma risk and alcohol-related ALDH2 and ADH1B polymorphisms: Evidence from a meta-analysis and Mendelian randomization analysis

BACKGROUND

Previous studies have shown that ALDH2 and ADH1B genes may be associated with alcohol metabolism and the risk of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC), with inconsistent results. This meta-analysis aimed at comprehensively assessing the associations between ALDH2 and ADH1B polymorphisms and the risk of ESCC to synthesize and clarify the evidence.

METHODS

We calculated summary estimates of the associations between four genetic variants (rs671 and rs674 in ALDH2, and rs1229984 and rs1042026 in ADH1B) and the ESCC risk across 23 publications in the additive model and allelic model. Venice criteria, Bayesian false discovery probability (BFDP), and false-positive reporting probability (FPRP) were used to assess the strength of epidemiological evidence. Heterogeneity among studies was evaluated by using the Higgin's I2 statistic, and publication bias was assessed by using funnel plots and Begg's test. A Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis was performed to determine the causal association between alcohol intake and esophageal cancer risk. Data from the HaploReg v4.1 and PolyPhen-2 were analyzed for functional annotations.

RESULTS

Of the four genetic variants, rs671 of ALDH2 was associated with a significantly reduced risk of ESCC (OR: 0.60, 95% CI: 0.50-0.73), whereas rs1229984 of ADH1B was associated with a significantly increased risk (2.50, 95% CI: 1.70-3.69) in the additive model. In the allelic model, the variant rs1229984 of ADH1B also increased the risk of ESCC (OR: 1.50; 95% CI: 1.21-1.87). The result for the variant rs671 was considered as strong epidemiological evidence. Functional annotations identified that the four variants were related to the enhancer histone marks and motif changes. The other two variants were not associated with the ESCC risk (rs674 of ALDH2 OR: 1.22, 95% CI: 0.71-2.12; rs1042026 of ADH1B OR: 1.28, 95% CI: 0.52-3.14) in the additive model. The MR analysis did not find a causal effect of alcohol on the esophageal cancer risk.

CONCLUSIONS

The results showed that ADH1B rs1229984 was significantly associated with an increased the risk of ESCC.

Long-term esophageal cancer risk and distinct surveillance intervals after a single endoscopy screening: a multicentre population-based cohort study

Background

Endoscopy surveillance is recommended for mild-moderate dysplasia and negative endoscopy findings every 3 years and 5 years, respectively, but evidence is limited. This study aimed to assess long-term esophageal cancer (EC) incidence and mortality after a single endoscopy screening.

Methods

We included individuals at high risk of EC aged 40-69 years who underwent endoscopy screening in 2007-2012 at six centres in rural China and had a baseline diagnosis of negative endoscopy findings, mild dysplasia, or moderate dysplasia. Participants were followed up for EC incidence and mortality. Cumulative incidence and mortality rates of EC were estimated by Kaplan-Meier analyses. Cox regression models were used to calculate adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for associations between baseline endoscopy diagnosis and the risk of EC incidence and mortality. EC incidence and mortality after a single endoscopy screening were compared with those of the population in rural China by the standardized incidence ratio (SIR) and standardized mortality ratio (SMR).

Findings

A total of 42,827 participants (40,977 with negative endoscopy findings, 1562 with mild dysplasia, and 288 with moderate dysplasia) were included; 268 EC cases and 128 EC deaths were identified during a median follow-up of 10.62 years. The cumulative EC incidence at 10 years was 0.45% (0.38-0.52) in the group with negative endoscopy findings, 2.39% (1.62-3.16) in the mild dysplasia group, and 8.90% (5.57-12.24) in the moderate dysplasia group, and the cumulative EC mortality at 10 years was 0.23% (0.18-0.27), 0.96% (0.46-1.46), and 2.50% (0.67-4.33), respectively. Compared with individuals with negative endoscopy findings, the HRs for EC incidence and mortality in the mild dysplasia group were 3.52 (2.49-4.97) and 2.43 (1.41-4.19), and those in the moderate dysplasia group were 13.18 (8.78-19.76) and 6.46 (3.13-13.29), respectively. The SIR was 0.53 (0.40-0.70) for the group with negative endoscopy findings, 1.95 (1.69-2.24) for the mild dysplasia group, and 6.75 (6.25-7.28) for the moderate dysplasia group, with the SMRs of 0.43 (0.31-0.58), 1.07 (0.88-1.29) and 2.67 (2.36-3.01), respectively.

Interpretation

Individuals with negative endoscopy findings after a single endoscopy screening had a lower EC risk than the general population for up to 10.62 years, while those with mild-moderate dysplasia had an elevated risk. Our results support endoscopy surveillance for mild-moderate dysplasia every 3 years and suggest extending the interval to 10 years after a negative endoscopy finding.

Funding

National Key R&D Programme of China, Special Project of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Basic Research Cooperation, and Sanming Project of Medicine in Shenzhen.

Public Preference Heterogeneity and Predicted Uptake Rate of Upper Gastrointestinal Cancer Screening Programs in Rural China: Discrete Choice Experiments and Latent Class Analysis

BACKGROUND

Rapid increases in the morbidity and mortality of patients with upper gastrointestinal cancer (UGC) in high-incidence countries in Asia have raised public health concerns. Screening can effectively reduce the incidence and mortality of patients with UGC, but the low population uptake rate seriously affects the screening effect.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to determine the characteristics that influence residents' preference heterogeneity for a UGC-screening program and the extent to which these characteristics predict residents' uptake rates.

METHODS

A discrete choice experiment was conducted in 1000 residents aged 40-69 years who were randomly selected from 3 counties (Feicheng, Linqu, and Dongchangfu) in Shandong Province, China. Each respondent was repeatedly asked to choose from 9 discrete choice questions of 2 hypothetical screening programs comprising 5 attributes: screening interval, screening technique, regular follow-up for precancerous lesions, mortality reduction, and out-of-pocket costs. The latent class logit model was used to estimate residents' preference heterogeneity for each attribute level, their willingness to pay, and the expected uptake rates.

RESULTS

Of the 1000 residents invited, 926 (92.6%) were included in the final analyses. The mean age was 57.32 (SD 7.22) years. The best model contained 4 classes of respondents (Akaike information criterion=7140.989, Bayesian information criterion=7485.373) defined by different preferences for the 5 attributes. In the 4-class model, out of 926 residents, 88 (9.5%) were assigned to class 1, named as the negative latent type; 216 (3.3%) were assigned to class 2, named as the positive integrated type; 434 (46.9%) were assigned to class 3, named as the positive comfortable type; and 188 (20.3%) were assigned to class 4, named as the neutral quality type. For these 4 latent classes, "out-of-pocket cost" is the most preferred attribute in negative latent type and positive integrated type residents (45.04% vs 66.04% importance weights), whereas "screening technique" is the most preferred factor in positive comfortable type residents (62.56% importance weight) and "screening interval" is the most valued attribute in neutral quality type residents (47.05% importance weight). Besides, residents in different classes had common preference for painless endoscopy, and their willingness to pay were CNY ¥385.369 (US $59.747), CNY ¥93.44 (US $14.486), CNY ¥1946.48 (US $301.810), and CNY ¥3566.60 (US $552.961), respectively. Residents' participation rate could increase by more than 89% (except for the 60.98% in class 2) if the optimal UGC screening option with free, follow-up for precancerous lesions, 45% mortality reduction, screening every year, and painless endoscopy was implemented.

CONCLUSIONS

Public preference heterogeneity for UGC screening does exist. Most residents have a positive attitude toward UGC screening, but their preferences vary in selected attributes and levels, except for painless endoscopy. Policy makers should consider these heterogeneities to formulate UGC-screening programs that incorporate the public's needs and preferences to improve participation rates.

Genomic and transcriptional characterization of early esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) is a highly heterogeneous cancer that lacks comprehensive understanding and effective treatment. Although multi-omics study has revealed features and underlying drivers of advanced ESCC, research on molecular characteristics of the early stage ESCC is quite limited.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We presented characteristics of genomics and transcriptomics in 10 matched pairs of tumor and normal tissues of early ESCC patients in the China region.

RESULTS

We identified the specific patterns of cancer gene mutations and copy number variations. We also found a dramatic change in the transcriptome, with more than 4,000 genes upregulated in cancer. Among them, more than one-third of HOX family genes were specifically and highly expressed in early ESCC samples of China and validated by RT-qPCR. Gene regulation network analysis indicated that alteration of Hox family genes promoted the proliferation and metabolism remodeling of early ESCC.

CONCLUSIONS

We characterized the genomic and transcriptomic landscape of 10 paired normal adjacent and early ESCC tissues in the China region, and provided a new perspective to understand the development of ESCC and insight into potential prevention and diagnostic targets for the management of early ESCC in China.