Soil dust aerosols and wind as predictors of seasonal meningitis incidence in Niger

Dust and Death: Evidence from the West African Harmattan

Using two decades of data from 12 low-income countries in West Africa, we show that dust carried by harmattan trade winds increases infant and child mortality. Health investments respond to dust exposure, consistent with compensating behaviours. Despite these efforts, surviving children still exhibit negative health impacts. Our data allow us to investigate differential impacts over time and across countries. We find declining impacts over time, suggesting adaptation. Using national-level measures of macroeconomic conditions and health resources, we find suggestive evidence that both economic development and public health improvements have contributed to this adaptation, with health improvements playing a larger role.

Prevalence, aetiology, vaccination coverage and spatio-temporal pattern among patients admitted with acute bacterial meningitis to the sentinel hospital surveillance network in Yemen, 2014-20, before and during the civil war

BACKGROUND

Acute bacterial meningitis (ABM) is a serious health issue in Yemen where civil war, which continues unabated, has crippled the healthcare system. We conducted a nationwide retrospective observational study in Yemeni sentinel hospitals to identify the prevalence, aetiology, vaccination coverage and spatio-temporal pattern of ABM in children aged <5 years before and during the civil war, 2014-20.

METHODS

Cerebrospinal fluid samples were collected from hospitalized children and were analysed macroscopically for appearance and microscopically by Gram stain and white blood cell count. Culture and latex agglutination tests were performed. Data on the prevalence of and vaccination coverage for ABM were obtained from the Ministry of Health. Joinpoint regression was used to assess the annual percent change (APC) of ABM prevalence and vaccination coverage. Pearson's correlation was used to evaluate the association between ABM prevalence and vaccination coverage.

RESULTS

In total, 11 339 hospitalized children had suspected cases of ABM (prevalence, 40.07/100 000 of the whole Yemeni population) and 2.6% (293/11 339) of suspected ABM cases were confirmed (prevalence, 1.04/100 000 of the whole Yemeni population). The dominant pathogens were Streptococcus pneumoniae, Neisseria meningitidis and Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib). The civil war reduced the Hib and pneumococcal vaccination coverage (APC = -1.92), reaching its lowest (79.5%) in 2018. The prevalence of suspected ABM increased (APC = 3.46), reaching its maximum (6.08/100 000 of the whole Yemeni population) in 2019. The conflict inversely correlated with the ABM prevalence and vaccination coverage (Pearson correlation coefficient (r), -0.69 to -0.53). Ta'izz region, which was severely affected by the civil war, had the highest prevalence of suspected ABM (120.90/100 000 of the whole Yemeni population) and lowest vaccination coverage (60%).

CONCLUSIONS

The civil war had a negative impact on vaccination coverage and coincided with increasing prevalence of ABM in Yemen. Streptococcus pneumoniae is the dominant causative pathogen.

High-spatial resolution epidemic surveillance of bacterial meningitis in the African meningitis belt in Burkina Faso

Despite improved surveillance capacities and WHO recommendations for subdistrict analysis, routine epidemic surveillance of acute bacterial meningitis in the African meningitis belt remains largely limited to the district level. We evaluated the appropriateness and performance of analyses at higher spatial resolution. We used suspected meningitis surveillance data at health centre (HC) resolution from Burkina Faso from 14 health districts spanning years 2004-2014 and analysed them using spatio-temporal statistics and generative models. An operational analysis compared epidemic signals at district and HC-level using weekly incidence thresholds. Eighty-four percent (N = 98/116) of epidemic clusters spanned only one HC-week. Spatial propagation of epidemic clusters was mostly limited to 10-30 km. During the 2004-2009 (with serogroup A meningitis) and 2010-2014 (after serogroup A elimination) period, using weekly HC-level incidence thresholds of 100 and 50 per 100,000 respectively, we found a gain in epidemic detection and timeliness in 9 (41% of total) and 10 (67%), respectively, district years with at least one HC signal. Individual meningitis epidemics expanded little in space, suggesting that a health centre level analysis is most appropriate for epidemic surveillance. Epidemic surveillance could gain in precision and timeliness by higher spatial resolution. The optimal threshold should be defined depending on the current background incidence of bacterial meningitis.

Multi-sectoral impact assessment of an extreme African dust episode in the Eastern Mediterranean in March 2018

In late March 2018, a large part of the Eastern Mediterranean experienced an extraordinary episode of African dust, one of the most intense in recent years, here referred to as the "Minoan Red" event. The episode mainly affected the Greek island of Crete, where the highest aerosol concentrations over the past 15 yeas were recorded, although impacts were also felt well beyond this core area. Our study fills a gap in dust research by assessing the multi-sectoral impacts of sand and dust storms and their socioeconomic implications. Specifically, we provide a multi-sectoral impact assessment of Crete during the occurrence of this exceptional African dust event. During the day of the occurrence of the maximum dust concentration in Crete, i.e. March 22nd, 2018, we identified impacts on meteorological conditions, agriculture, transport, energy, society (including closing of schools and cancellation of social events), and emergency response systems. As a result, the event led to a 3-fold increase in daily emergency responses compare to previous days associated with urban emergencies and wildfires, a 3.5-fold increase in hospital visits and admissions for Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) exacerbations and dyspnoea, a reduction of visibility causing aircraft traffic disruptions (eleven cancellations and seven delays), and a reduction of solar energy production. We estimate the cost of direct and indirect effects of the dust episode, considering the most affected socio-economic sectors (e.g. civil protection, aviation, health and solar energy production), to be between 3.4 and 3.8 million EUR for Crete. Since such desert dust transport episodes are natural, meteorology-driven and thus to a large extent unavoidable, we argue that the efficiency of actions to mitigate dust impacts depends on the accuracy of operational dust forecasting and the implementation of relevant early warning systems for social awareness.

An overview of bacterial meningitis epidemics in Africa from 1928 to 2018 with a focus on epidemics "outside-the-belt"

Background

Bacterial meningitis occurs worldwide but Africa remains the most affected continent, especially in the "Meningitis belt" that extends from Senegal to Ethiopia. Three main bacteria are responsible for causing bacterial meningitis, i.e., N. meningitidis (Nm), S. pneumoniae and H. influenzae type b. Among Nm, serogroup A used to be responsible for up to 80 to 85% of meningococcal meningitis cases in Africa. Since 2000, other Nm serogroups including W, X and C have also been responsible for causing epidemics. This overview aims to describe the main patterns of meningitis disease cases and pathogens from 1928 to 2018 in Africa with a special focus on disease conditions “out-of-the-belt” area that is still usually unexplored. Based on basic spatio-temporal methods, and a 90-years database of reported suspected meningitis cases and death from the World Health Organization, we used both geographic information system and spatio-temporal statistics to identify the major localizations of meningitis epidemics over this period in Africa.

Results

Bacterial meningitis extends today outside its historical limits of the meningitis belt. Since the introduction of MenAfrivac vaccine in 2010, there has been a dramatic decrease in NmA cases while other pathogen species and Nm variants including NmW, NmC and Streptococcus pneumoniae have become more prevalent reflecting a greater diversity of bacterial strains causing meningitis epidemics in Africa today.

Conclusion

Bacterial meningitis remains a major public health problem in Africa today. Formerly concentrated in the region of the meningitis belt with Sub-Saharan and Sudanian environmental conditions, the disease extends now outside these historical limits to reach more forested regions in the central parts of the continent. With global environmental changes and massive vaccination targeting a unique serogroup, an epidemiological transition of bacterial meningitis is ongoing, requiring both a better consideration of the etiological nature of the responsible agents and of their proximal and distal determinants.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12879-021-06724-1.

Satellite Monitoring for Air Quality and Health

Data from satellite instruments provide estimates of gas and particle levels relevant to human health, even pollutants invisible to the human eye. However, the successful interpretation of satellite data requires an understanding of how satellites relate to other data sources, as well as factors affecting their application to health challenges. Drawing from the expertise and experience of the 2016-2020 NASA HAQAST (Health and Air Quality Applied Sciences Team), we present a review of satellite data for air quality and health applications. We include a discussion of satellite data for epidemiological studies and health impact assessments, as well as the use of satellite data to evaluate air quality trends, support air quality regulation, characterize smoke from wildfires, and quantify emission sources. The primary advantage of satellite data compared to in situ measurements, e.g., from air quality monitoring stations, is their spatial coverage. Satellite data can reveal where pollution levels are highest around the world, how levels have changed over daily to decadal periods, and where pollutants are transported from urban to global scales. To date, air quality and health applications have primarily utilized satellite observations and satellite-derived products relevant to near-surface particulate matter <2.5 μm in diameter (PM_2.5) and nitrogen dioxide (NO₂). Health and air quality communities have grown increasingly engaged in the use of satellite data, and this trend is expected to continue. From health researchers to air quality managers, and from global applications to community impacts, satellite data are transforming the way air pollution exposure is evaluated.

Human health risk assessment for toxic elements in the extreme ambient dust conditions observed in Sistan, Iran

This study evaluates the bioaccessibility and health risks related to heavy metals (Cd, Cr, Co, Cu, Mn, Ni, Pb, Zn and metalloid As) in airborne dust samples (TSP and PM_2.5) in Zabol, Iran during the summer dust period, when peak concentration levels of PM are typically observed. High bioaccessibilities of carcinogenic metals in PM_2.5 (i.e. 53.3%, 48.6% and 47.6% for Ni, Cr and As, respectively) were calculated. The carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic health risks were assessed for three exposure pathways (inhalation, ingestion and dermal contact), separately for children and adults. Non-carcinogenic inhalation risks were very high (Hazard Index: HI > 1) both for children and adults, while the carcinogenic risks were above the upper acceptable threshold of 10^-4 for adults and marginally close (5.0-8.4 × 10^-5) for children. High carcinogenic risks (>10^-4) were found for the ingestion pathway both for children and adults, while HI values > 1 (8.2) were estimated for children. Carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risk estimates for dermal contact were also above the limits considered acceptable, except for the carcinogenic risk for children (7.6 × 10^-5). Higher non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic risks (integrated for all elements) were associated with the inhalation pathway in adults and children with the exception of carcinogenic risk for children, where the ingestion route remains the most important, while As was linked with the highest risks for nearly all exposure pathways. A comparative evaluation shows that health risks related with toxic elements in airborne particles in Sistan are among the highest reported in the world.

Climate and climate-sensitive diseases in semi-arid regions: a systematic review

OBJECTIVES

We aim to describe the relationships between climate variables and climate-sensitive diseases (CSDs) in semi-arid regions, highlighting the different main groups of CSDs and their climate patterns.

METHODS

This systematic review considered Medline, Science Direct, Scopus and Web of Science. The data collection period was August and September 2019 and included studies published between 2008 and 2019. This study followed a protocol based on the PRISMA statement. Data analysis was done in a qualitative way.

RESULTS

The most of works were from Africa, Asia and Iran (71%), where temperature was the main climatic variable. Although the studies provide climatic conditions that are more favorable for the incidence of vector-borne and respiratory diseases, the influence of seasonal patterns on the onset, development and end of CSDs is still poorly understood, especially for gastrointestinal disorders. Moreover, little is known about the impact of droughts on CSDs.

CONCLUSIONS

This review summarized the state of art of the relationship between climate and CSDs in semi-arid regions. Moreover, a research agenda was provided, which is fundamental for health policy development, priority setting and public health management.

Saharan sand and dust storms and neonatal mortality: Evidence from Burkina Faso

West African populations are exposed to the longest and harshest dust storms on the planet, the Saharan sand and dust storms (SDS). Nonetheless, little is known about the effects of the severe storms on early-life health in West Africa. This study investigated the association of the risk of neonatal mortality, an indicator of the population's early-life health, with potential prenatal and neonatal exposure to the Saharan SDS. Data on 30,552 under-five children from Burkina Faso's 1993, 2003, and 2010 demographic and health surveys were matched to the particulate matters (PM) and terrestrial air temperature and precipitation forecasts. Exposure to dust events was measured by the number of days with average PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations above a series of threshold. Intensity-dependent patterns of associations between neonatal mortality and both prenatal and birth month exposure to dust events were identified. There was no association if average daily PM10 and PM2.5 levels were <60 and 30 μg/m³, respectively. However, strong associations, which increase almost linearly with the intensity of exposure, were identified when daily PM10 and PM2.5 levels ranged from 70 to 150 and from 40 to 70 μg/m³, respectively. At the higher PM levels, the association for the gestation period decreased, but that for the birth month remained mostly unresponsive to changes in the PM levels. Larger associations were identified when siblings were compared.

Using Satellites to Track Indicators of Global Air Pollution and Climate Change Impacts: Lessons Learned From a NASA-Supported Science-Stakeholder Collaborative

The 2018 NASA Health and Air Quality Applied Science Team (HAQAST) "Indicators" Tiger Team collaboration between NASA-supported scientists and civil society stakeholders aimed to develop satellite-derived global air pollution and climate indicators. This Commentary shares our experience and lessons learned. Together, the team developed methods to track wildfires, dust storms, pollen counts, urban green space, nitrogen dioxide concentrations and asthma burdens, tropospheric ozone concentrations, and urban particulate matter mortality. Participatory knowledge production can lead to more actionable information but requires time, flexibility, and continuous engagement. Ground measurements are still needed for ground truthing, and sustained collaboration over time remains a challenge.

Characterization of an Outbreak of Infectious Coryza (Avibacterium paragallinarum) in Commercial Chickens in Central California

In 2017, the Turlock branch of the California Animal Health & Food Safety laboratory system received a significant increase in infectious coryza (IC) necropsy cases, with a total of 54 submissions originating from commercial broilers (n = 40), commercial layers (n = 11), and backyard chickens (n = 3). Layer flocks positive for IC were distributed within the adjacent counties of Merced and Stanislaus, while broiler flocks were concentrated within Merced County. The backyard flocks were located in Alameda and Sacramento counties. The clinical and pathologic presentation was consistent with IC, although septicemic lesions were also noticed. Avibacterium paragallinarum was isolated and identified by PCR from the respiratory tract as well as from extrarespiratory sites. Polymicrobial infections involving other viral (infectious bronchitis virus, infectious bursal disease virus) and bacterial (Mycoplasma spp., Escherichia coli, Ornithobacterium rhinotracheale, Gallibacterium anatis biovar haemolytica) agents were commonly reported. Thirteen selected Av. paragallinarum isolates were successfully characterized as serovar C (Page scheme) and serovar C2 (Kume scheme). They shared a unique enterobacterial repetitive intergenic consensus (ERIC) PCR, differing from the four reference strains, and showed consistent high minimum inhibitory concentration values for tetracycline, suggesting a common origin from a single clone. Based on these results, high biosecurity standards and proper immunization of susceptible, multi-age flocks should always be implemented and adjusted as needed. The importance of backyard flocks should not be underestimated due to their unique epidemiologic role.

Evaluating the Impact of Assimilating Aerosol Optical Depth Observations on Dust Forecasts Over North Africa and the East Atlantic Using Different Data Assimilation Methods

This study evaluates the impact of assimilating moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) aerosol optical depth (AOD) data using different data assimilation (DA) methods on dust analyses and forecasts over North Africa and tropical North Atlantic. To do so, seven experiments are conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting dust model and the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation analysis system. Six of these experiments differ in whether or not AOD observations are assimilated and the DA method used, the latter of which includes the three-dimensional variational (3D-Var), ensemble square root filter (EnSRF), and hybrid methods. The seventh experiment, which allows us to assess the impact of assimilating deep blue AOD data, assimilates only dark target AOD data using the hybrid method. The assimilation of MODIS AOD data clearly improves AOD analyses and forecasts up to 48 hr in length. Results also show that assimilating deep blue data has a primarily positive effect on AOD analyses and forecasts over and downstream of the major North African source regions. Without assimilating deep blue data (assimilating dark target only), AOD assimilation only improves AOD forecasts for up to 30 hr. Of the three DA methods examined, the hybrid and EnSRF methods produce better AOD analyses and forecasts than the 3D-Var method does. Despite the clear benefit of AOD assimilation for AOD analyses and forecasts, the lack of information regarding the vertical distribution of aerosols in AOD data means that AOD assimilation has very little positive effect on analyzed or forecasted vertical profiles of backscatter.

THE EXPOSOME IN HUMAN EVOLUTION: FROM DUST TO DIESEL

Global exposures to air pollution and cigarette smoke are novel in human evolutionary history and are associated with about 16 million premature deaths per year. We investigate the history of the human exposome for relationships between novel environmental toxins and genetic changes during human evolution in six phases. Phase I: With increased walking on savannas, early human ancestors inhaled crustal dust, fecal aerosols, and spores; carrion scavenging introduced new infectious pathogens. Phase II: Domestic fire exposed early Homo to novel toxins from smoke and cooking. Phases III and IV: Neolithic to preindustrial Homo sapiens incurred infectious pathogens from domestic animals and dense communities with limited sanitation. Phase V: Industrialization introduced novel toxins from fossil fuels, industrial chemicals, and tobacco at the same time infectious pathogens were diminishing. Thereby, pathogen-driven causes of mortality were replaced by chronic diseases driven by sterile inflammogens, exogenous and endogenous. Phase VI: Considers future health during global warming with increased air pollution and infections. We hypothesize that adaptation to some ancient toxins persists in genetic variations associated with inflammation and longevity.

Atmospheric Dynamics from Synoptic to Local Scale During an Intense Frontal Dust Storm over the Sistan Basin in Winter 2019

The Sistan Basin has been recognized as one of the most active dust sources and windiest desert environments in the world. Although the dust activity in Sistan maximizes during the summer, rare but intense dust storms may also occur in the winter. This study aims to elucidate the atmospheric dynamics related to dust emission and transport, dust-plume characteristics, and impacts on aerosol properties and air quality during an intense dust storm over Sistan in February 2019. The dust storm was initiated by strong northerly winds (~20 ms−1) associated with the intrusion of a cold front from high latitudes. The upper-level potential vorticity (PV)-trough evolved into a cut-off low in the mid and upper troposphere and initiated unstable weather over Afghanistan and northern Pakistan. At the surface, density currents emanating from deep convective clouds and further strengthened by downslope winds from the mountains, caused massive soil erosion. The passage of the cold front reduced the temperature by ~10 °C and increased the atmospheric pressure by ~10 hPa, while the visibility was limited to less than 200 m. The rough topography played a major role in modulating the atmospheric dynamics, wind field, dust emissions, and transport pathways. Meso-NH model simulates large amounts of columnar mass dust loading (> 20 g m−2) over Sistan, while the intense dust plume was mainly traveling below 2 km and increased the particulate matter (PM10) concentrations up to 1800 µg m−3 at Zabol. The dust storm was initially moving in an arc-shaped pathway over the Sistan Basin and then it spread away. Plumes of dust covered a large area in southwest Asia, reaching the northern Arabian Sea, and the Thar desert one to two days later, while they strongly affected the aerosol properties at Karachi, Pakistan, by increasing the aerosol optical depth (AOD > 1.2) and the coarse-mode fraction at ~0.7.

Monitoring the impact of desert dust outbreaks for air quality for health studies

We review the major features of desert dust outbreaks that are relevant to the assessment of dust impacts upon human health. Our ultimate goal is to provide scientific guidance for the acquisition of relevant population exposure information for epidemiological studies tackling the short and long term health effects of desert dust. We first describe the source regions and the typical levels of dust particles in regions close and far away from the source areas, along with their size, composition, and bio-aerosol load. We then describe the processes by which dust may become mixed with anthropogenic particulate matter (PM) and/or alter its load in receptor areas. Short term health effects are found during desert dust episodes in different regions of the world, but in a number of cases the results differ when it comes to associate the effects to the bulk PM, the desert dust-PM, or non-desert dust-PM. These differences are likely due to the different monitoring strategies applied in the epidemiological studies, and to the differences on atmospheric and emission (natural and anthropogenic) patterns of desert dust around the world. We finally propose methods to allow the discrimination of health effects by PM fraction during dust outbreaks, and a strategy to implement desert dust alert and monitoring systems for health studies and air quality management.

Priority focus areas for a sub-national response to climate change and health: A South African provincial case study

INTRODUCTION

The intersection of health and climate change is often absent or under-represented in sub-national government strategies. This analysis of the literature, using a new methodological framework, highlights priority focus areas for a sub-national government response to health and climate change, using the Western Cape (WC) province of South Africa as a case study.

METHODS

A methodological framework was created to conduct a review of priority focus areas relevant for sub-national governments. The framework encompassed the establishment of a Project Steering Group consisting of relevant, sub-national stakeholders (e.g. provincial officials, public and environmental health specialists and academics); an analysis of local climatic projections as well as an analysis of global, national and sub-national health risk factors and impacts.

RESULTS

Globally, the discussion of health and climate change adaptation strategies in sub-national, or provincial government is often limited. For the case study presented, multiple health risk factors were identified. WC climatic projections include a warmer and potentially drier future with an increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. WC government priority focus areas requiring further research on health risk factors include: population migration and environmental refugees, land use change, violence and human conflict and vulnerable groups. WC government priority focus areas for further research on health impacts include: mental ill-health, non-communicable diseases, injuries, poisonings (e.g. pesticides), food and nutrition insecurity-related diseases, water- and food-borne diseases and reproductive health. These areas are currently under-addressed, or not addressed at all, in the current provincial climate change strategy.

CONCLUSIONS

Sub-national government adaptation strategies often display limited discussion on the health and climate change intersect. The methodological framework presented in this case study can be globally utilized by other sub-national governments for decision-making and development of climate change and health adaptation strategies. Additionally, due to the broad range of sectoral issues identified, a primary recommendation from this study is that sub-national governments internationally should consider a "health and climate change in all policies" approach when developing adaptation and mitigation strategies to address climate change.

Environmental, economic and socio-cultural risk factors of recurrent seasonal epidemics of cerebrospinal meningitis in Kebbi state, northwestern Nigeria: a qualitative approach

BACKGROUND

Kebbi State remains the epicentre of the seasonal epidemic meningitis in northwestern Nigeria despite interventions. In this setting, no previous study has been conducted to understand the risk factors of the recurrent meningitis epidemics using qualitative approach. Consequently, this study intends to explore and better understand the environmental, economic and socio-cultural factors of recurrent seasonal epidemic meninigitis using a qualitative approach.

METHODS

We conducted in-depth interview (40 IDIs) and focus group discussions (6 FGDs) in two local government areas (LGAs) in Kebbi State, Northwestern Nigeria to understand the environmental, economic and socio-cultural factors of recurrent meningitis outbreaks. Routine surveillance data were used to guide the selection of settlements, wards and local government areas based on the frequency of re-occurrences and magnitude of the outbreaks.

RESULTS

The discussions revealed certain elements capable of potentiating the recurrence of seasonal meningitis epidemics. These are environmental issues, such as poorly-designed built environment, crowded sleeping and poorly ventilated rooms, dry and dusty weather condition. Other elements were economic challenges, such as poor household living conditions, neighbourhood deprivation, and socio-cultural elements, such as poor healthcare seeking behaviour, social mixing patterns, inadequate vaccination and vaccine hesitancy.

CONCLUSION

As suggested by participants, there are potential environmental, socio-cultural and economic factors in the study area that might have been driving recurrent epidemics of cerebrospinal meningitis. In a bid to addressing this perennial challenge, governments at various levels supported by health development partners such as the World Health Organisation (WHO), United Nation Habitat, and United National Development Programme can use the findings of this study to design policies and programmes targeting these factors towards complementing other preventive and control strategies.

Compartmental models for seasonal hyperendemic bacterial meningitis in the African meningitis belt

The pathophysiological mechanisms underlying the seasonal dynamic and epidemic occurrence of bacterial meningitis in the African meningitis belt remain unknown. Regular seasonality (seasonal hyperendemicity) is observed for both meningococcal and pneumococcal meningitis and understanding this is critical for better prevention and modelling. The two principal hypotheses for hyperendemicity during the dry season imply (1) an increased risk of invasive disease given asymptomatic carriage of meningococci and pneumococci; or (2) an increased transmission of these bacteria from carriers and ill individuals. In this study, we formulated three compartmental deterministic models of seasonal hyperendemicity, featuring one (model1-'inv' or model2-'transm'), or a combination (model3-'inv-transm') of the two hypotheses. We parameterised the models based on current knowledge on meningococcal and pneumococcal biology and pathophysiology. We compared the three models' performance in reproducing weekly incidences of suspected cases of acute bacterial meningitis reported by health centres in Burkina Faso during 2004-2010, through the meningitis surveillance system. The three models performed well (coefficient of determination R2, 0.72, 0.86 and 0.87, respectively). Model2-'transm' and model3-'inv-transm' better captured the amplitude of the seasonal incidence. However, model2-'transm' required a higher constant invasion rate for a similar average baseline transmission rate. The results suggest that a combination of seasonal changes of the risk of invasive disease and carriage transmission is involved in the hyperendemic seasonality of bacterial meningitis in the African meningitis belt. Consequently, both interventions reducing the risk of nasopharyngeal invasion and the bacteria transmission, especially during the dry season are believed to be needed to limit the recurrent seasonality of bacterial meningitis in the meningitis belt.

Atmospheric Dust, Early Cases, and Localized Meningitis Epidemics in the African Meningitis Belt: An Analysis Using High Spatial Resolution Data

BACKGROUND

Bacterial meningitis causes a high burden of disease in the African meningitis belt, with regular seasonal hyperendemicity and sporadic short, but intense, localized epidemics during the late dry season occurring at a small spatial scale [i.e., below the district level, in individual health centers (HCs)]. In addition, epidemic waves with larger geographic extent occur every 7-10 y. Although atmospheric dust load is thought to be an essential factor for hyperendemicity, its role for localized epidemics remains hypothetic.

OBJECTIVES

Our goal was to evaluate the association of localized meningitis epidemics in HC catchment areas with the dust load and the occurrence of cases in the same population early in the dry season.

METHODS

We compiled weekly reported cases of suspected bacterial meningitis at the HC resolution for 14 districts of Burkina Faso for the period 2004-2014. Using logistic regression, we evaluated the association of epidemic HC-weeks with atmospheric dust [approximated by the aerosol optical thickness (AOT) satellite product] and with the observation of early meningitis cases during October-December.

RESULTS

Although AOT was strongly associated with epidemic HC-weeks in crude analyses across all HC-weeks during the meningitis season [odds ratio (OR) [Formula: see text]; 95% CI: 4.90, 9.50], the association was no longer apparent when controlling for calendar week (OR [Formula: see text]; 95% CI: 0.60, 1.50). The number of early meningitis cases reported during October-December was associated with epidemic HC-weeks in the same HC catchment area during January-May of the following year (OR for each additional early case [Formula: see text]; 95% CI: 1.06, 1.21).

CONCLUSIONS

Spatial variations of atmospheric dust load do not seem to be a factor in the occurrence of localized meningitis epidemics, and the factor triggering them remains to be identified. The pathophysiological mechanism linking early cases to localized epidemics is not understood, but their occurrence and number of early cases could be an indicator for epidemic risk. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP2752.

Nasopharyngeal Pneumococcal Carriage in Nigeria: a two-site, population-based survey

Changes in nasopharyngeal (NP) carriage of vaccine-type (VT) Streptococcus pneumoniae can be used to assess the effectiveness of a pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV10). We conducted a baseline carriage survey in rural (Kumbotso, Kano) and urban (Pakoto, Ogun) Nigeria. In this cross-sectional study, we obtained data on demography, clinical history, risk factors, and took NP swabs for pneumococcal culture. We calculated crude and age-standardised carriage prevalence and used log-binomial regression to assess risk factors for carriage. Among children aged <5 years, 92% (95% CI: 88–95%) and 78% (73–82%), respectively, carried any pneumococcus and 48% and 50%, respectively, carried PCV10 serotypes. In Kumbotso, carriage prevalence was >40% across all ages. The age-standardized prevalence of pneumococcal carriage was 66% in Kumbotso and 40% in Pakoto. The most commonly identified serotypes were 19 F, 6 A and 23 F. Risk factors for carriage were young age, recent rhinorrhoea, cohabitation with ≥2 children aged <5 years, and sharing a bed with ≥2 persons. Pneumococcal carriage prevalence is high in this Nigerian population. Persisting prevalence of VT-carriage in older children and adults suggests that PCV10 introduction in children will not eliminate transmission of vaccine serotypes rapidly. High vaccine coverage will therefore be required to ensure full protection of children.

A spatial and temporal analysis of paediatric central nervous system infections from 2005 to 2015 in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

Central nervous system infections (CNSI) are a leading cause of death and long-term disability in children. Using ICD-10 data from 2005 to 2015 from three central hospitals in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC), Vietnam, we exploited generalized additive mixed models (GAMM) to examine the spatial-temporal distribution and spatial and climatic risk factors of paediatric CNSI, excluding tuberculous meningitis, in this setting. From 2005 to 2015, there were 9469 cases of paediatric CNSI; 33% were ⩽1 year old at admission and were mainly diagnosed with presumed bacterial CNSI (BI) (79%), the remainder were >1 year old and mainly diagnosed with presumed non-bacterial CNSI (non-BI) (59%). The urban districts of HCMC in proximity to the hospitals as well as some outer districts had the highest incidences of BI and non-BI; BI incidence was higher in the dry season. Monthly BI incidence exhibited a significant decreasing trend over the study. Both BI and non-BI were significantly associated with lags in monthly average temperature, rainfall, and river water level. Our findings add new insights into this important group of infections in Vietnam, and highlight where resources for the prevention and control of paediatric CNSI should be allocated.

Climate change and sugarcane expansion increase Hantavirus infection risk

Hantavirus Cardiopulmonary Syndrome (HCPS) is a disease caused by Hantavirus, which is highly virulent for humans. High temperatures and conversion of native vegetation to agriculture, particularly sugarcane cultivation can alter abundance of rodent generalist species that serve as the principal reservoir host for HCPS, but our understanding of the compound effects of land use and climate on HCPS incidence remains limited, particularly in tropical regions. Here we rely on a Bayesian model to fill this research gap and to predict the effects of sugarcane expansion and expected changes in temperature on Hantavirus infection risk in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. The sugarcane expansion scenario was based on historical data between 2000 and 2010 combined with an agro-environment zoning guideline for the sugar and ethanol industry. Future evolution of temperature anomalies was derived using 32 general circulation models from scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (Representative greenhouse gases Concentration Pathways adopted by IPCC). Currently, the state of São Paulo has an average Hantavirus risk of 1.3%, with 6% of the 645 municipalities of the state being classified as high risk (HCPS risk ≥ 5%). Our results indicate that sugarcane expansion alone will increase average HCPS risk to 1.5%, placing 20% more people at HCPS risk. Temperature anomalies alone increase HCPS risk even more (1.6% for RCP4.5 and 1.7%, for RCP8.5), and place 31% and 34% more people at risk. Combined sugarcane and temperature increases led to the same predictions as scenarios that only included temperature. Our results demonstrate that climate change effects are likely to be more severe than those from sugarcane expansion. Forecasting disease is critical for the timely and efficient planning of operational control programs that can address the expected effects of sugarcane expansion and climate change on HCPS infection risk. The predicted spatial location of HCPS infection risks obtained here can be used to prioritize management actions and develop educational campaigns.

The burden of seasonal respiratory infections on a national telehealth service in England

Seasonal respiratory illnesses present a major burden on primary care services. We assessed the burden of respiratory illness on a national telehealth system in England and investigated the potential for providing early warning of respiratory infection. We compared weekly laboratory reports for respiratory pathogens with telehealth calls (NHS 111) between week 40 in 2013 and week 29 in 2015. Multiple linear regression was used to identify which pathogens had a significant association with respiratory calls. Children aged <5 and 5-14 years, and adults over 65 years were modelled separately as were time lags of up to 4 weeks between calls and laboratory specimen dates. Associations with respiratory pathogens explained over 83% of the variation in cold/flu, cough and difficulty breathing calls. Based on the first two seasons available, the greatest burden was associated with respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and influenza, with associations found in all age bands. The most sensitive signal for influenza was calls for 'cold/flu', whilst for RSV it was calls for cough. The best-fitting models showed calls increasing a week before laboratory specimen dates. Daily surveillance of these calls can provide early warning of seasonal rises in influenza and RSV, contributing to the national respiratory surveillance programme.

Legal immigrants: invasion of alien microbial communities during winter occurring desert dust storms

BACKGROUND

A critical aspect regarding the global dispersion of pathogenic microorganisms is associated with atmospheric movement of soil particles. Especially, desert dust storms can transport alien microorganisms over continental scales and can deposit them in sensitive sink habitats. In winter 2014, the largest ever recorded Saharan dust event in Italy was efficiently deposited on the Dolomite Alps and was sealed between dust-free snow. This provided us the unique opportunity to overcome difficulties in separating dust associated from "domestic" microbes and thus, to determine with high precision microorganisms transported exclusively by desert dust.

RESULTS

Our metagenomic analysis revealed that sandstorms can move not only fractions but rather large parts of entire microbial communities far away from their area of origin and that this microbiota contains several of the most stress-resistant organisms on Earth, including highly destructive fungal and bacterial pathogens. In particular, we provide first evidence that winter-occurring dust depositions can favor a rapid microbial contamination of sensitive sink habitats after snowmelt.

CONCLUSIONS

Airborne microbial depositions accompanying extreme meteorological events represent a realistic threat for ecosystem and public health. Therefore, monitoring the spread and persistence of storm-travelling alien microbes is a priority while considering future trajectories of climatic anomalies as well as anthropogenically driven changes in land use in the source regions.

Medical geology in the framework of the sustainable development goals

Exposure to geogenic contaminants (GCs) such as metal(loid)s, radioactive metals and isotopes as well as transuraniums occurring naturally in geogenic sources (rocks, minerals) can negatively impact on environmental and human health. The GCs are released into the environment by natural biogeochemical processes within the near-surface environments and/or by anthropogenic activities such as mining and hydrocarbon exploitation as well as exploitation of geothermal resources. They can contaminate soil, water, air and biota and subsequently enter the food chain with often serious health impacts which are mostly underestimated and poorly recognized. Global population explosion and economic growth and the associated increase in demand for water, energy, food, and mineral resources result in accelerated release of GCs globally. The emerging science of "medical geology" assesses the complex relationships between geo-environmental factors and their impacts on humans and environments and is related to the majority of the 17 Sustainable Development Goals in the 2030 Agenda of the United Nations for Sustainable Development. In this paper, we identify multiple lines of evidence for the role of GCs in the incidence of diseases with as yet unknown etiology (causation). Integrated medical geology promises a more holistic understanding of the occurrence, mobility, bioavailability, bio-accessibility, exposure and transfer mechanisms of GCs to the food-chain and humans, and the related ecotoxicological impacts and health effects. Scientific evidence based on this approach will support adaptive solutions for prevention, preparedness and response regarding human and environmental health impacts originating from exposure to GCs.

Comparison of Models Analyzing a Small Number of Observed Meningitis Cases in Navrongo, Ghana

The "meningitis belt" is a region in sub-Saharan Africa where annual outbreaks of meningitis occur, with epidemics observed cyclically. While we know that meningitis is heavily dependent on seasonal trends, the exact pathways for contracting the disease are not fully understood and warrant further investigation. Most previous approaches have used large sample inference to assess impacts of weather on meningitis rates. However, in the case of rare events, the validity of such assumptions is uncertain. This work examines the meningitis trends in the context of rare events, with the specific objective of quantifying the underlying seasonal patterns in meningitis rates. We compare three main classes of models: the Poisson generalized linear model, the Poisson generalized additive model, and a Bayesian hazard model extended to accommodate count data and a changing at-risk population. We compare the accuracy and robustness of the models through the bias, RMSE, and standard deviation of the estimators, and also provide a detailed case study of meningitis patterns for data collected in Navrongo, Ghana.

Mitochondria-mediated oxidative stress induced by desert dust in rat alveolar macrophages

Exposure to ambient particulate matter (PM), including PM from resuspension of soils and dusts, increases the risk for respiratory diseases. However, the exact mechanism of PM-mediated damage to the lungs remains unclear. Due to recent increases in the frequency of dust storms in many areas, we examined the cytotoxic effects of soil-dust samples collected in an arid zone in Israel on rat lung macrophages. The desert soil contains soil crusts and low levels of toxic metal content. Exposure of cells to water extracts from the dust samples caused significant reduction in the concentration of live cells and overall cell viability. The dust samples induced cell death through apoptosis, mitochondrial dysfunction, and increased mitochondrial lipid peroxidation. The dust samples generated more reactive oxygen species (ROS) compared to control-treated samples and National Institute of Standards and Technology San Joaquin Valley standard reference material. To assess whether the oxidative imbalance induced by dust extract also interferes with the antioxidant defense, we evaluated phase II detoxifying and antioxidant enzymes, which are Nrf2 classical targets. The Nrf2 transcription factor is a master regulator of cellular adaptation to stress. The dust extracts produced a significant increase in phase II detoxifying genes. This work suggests that the health-related injury observed in rat lung cells exposed to dust extracts is associated with ROS generation, mitochondrial dysfunction, mitochondrial lipid peroxidation, and cellular antioxidant imbalance. Damage to lung mitochondria may be an important mechanism by which dust-containing bacterial material induces lung injury upon inhalation.

Towards understanding the epidemiology of Neisseria meningitidis in the African meningitis belt: a multi-disciplinary overview

OBJECTIVES

Neisseria meningitidis is the major cause of seasonal meningitis epidemics in the African meningitis belt. In the changing context of a reduction in incidence of serogroup A and an increase in incidence of serogroups W and C and of Streptococcus pneumoniae, a better understanding of the determinants driving the disease transmission dynamics remains crucial to improving bacterial meningitis control.

METHODS

The literature was searched to provide a multi-disciplinary overview of the determinants of meningitis transmission dynamics in the African meningitis belt.

RESULTS

Seasonal hyperendemicity is likely predominantly caused by increased invasion rates, sporadic localized epidemics by increased transmission rates, and larger pluri-annual epidemic waves by changing population immunity. Carriage likely involves competition for colonization and cross-immunity. The duration of immunity likely depends on the acquisition type. Major risk factors include dust and low humidity, and presumably human contact rates and co-infections; social studies highlighted environmental and dietary factors, with supernatural explanations.

CONCLUSIONS

Efforts should focus on implementing multi-country, longitudinal seroprevalence and epidemiological studies, validating immune markers of protection, and improving surveillance, including more systematic molecular characterizations of the bacteria. Integrating climate and social factors into disease control strategies represents a high priority for optimizing the public health response and anticipating the geographic evolution of the African meningitis belt.

Predicting the mineral composition of dust aerosols: Insights from elemental composition measured at the Izaña Observatory

Regional variations of dust mineral composition are fundamental to climate impacts but generally neglected in climate models. A challenge for models is that atlases of soil composition are derived from measurements following wet sieving, which destroys the aggregates potentially emitted from the soil. Aggregates are crucial to simulating the observed size distribution of emitted soil particles. We use an extension of brittle fragmentation theory in a global dust model to account for these aggregates. Our method reproduces the size-resolved dust concentration along with the approximately size-invariant fractional abundance of elements like Fe and Al in the decade-long aerosol record from the Izaña Observatory, off the coast of West Africa. By distinguishing between Fe in structural and free forms, we can attribute improved model behavior to aggregation of Fe and Al-rich clay particles. We also demonstrate the importance of size-resolved measurements along with elemental composition analysis to constrain models.

Airborne dust and high temperatures are risk factors for invasive bacterial disease

Background

The Sahel region of West Africa has the highest bacterial meningitis attack and case fatality rate in the world. The effect of climatic factors on patterns of invasive respiratory bacterial disease is not well documented.

Objective

We aimed to assess the link between climatic factors and occurrence of invasive respiratory bacterial disease in a Sahel region of Niger.

Methods

We conducted daily disease surveillance and climatic monitoring over an 8-year period between January 1, 2003, and December 31, 2010, in Niamey, Niger, to determine risk factors for bacterial meningitis and invasive bacterial disease. We investigated the mechanistic effects of these factors on Streptococcus pneumoniae infection in mice.

Results

High temperatures and low visibility (resulting from high concentrations of airborne dust) were identified as significant risk factors for bacterial meningitis. Dust inhalation or exposure to high temperatures promoted progression of stable asymptomatic pneumococcal nasopharyngeal carriage to pneumonia and invasive disease. Dust exposure significantly reduced phagocyte-mediated bacterial killing, and exposure to high temperatures increased release of the key pneumococcal toxin pneumolysin through increased bacterial autolysis.

Conclusion

Our findings show that climatic factors can have a substantial influence on infectious disease patterns, altering density of pneumococcal nasopharyngeal carriage, reducing phagocytic killing, and resulting in increased inflammation and tissue damage and consequent invasiveness. Climatic surveillance should be used to forecast invasive bacterial disease epidemics, and simple control measures to reduce particulate inhalation might reduce the incidence of invasive bacterial disease in regions of the world exposed to high temperatures and increased airborne dust.

Invasive Meningococcal Meningitis Serogroup C Outbreak in Northwest Nigeria, 2015 - Third Consecutive Outbreak of a New Strain

BACKGROUND: In northwest Nigeria in 2013 and 2014, two sequential, localized outbreaks of meningitis were caused by a new strain of Neisseria meningitidis serogroup C (NmC). In 2015, an outbreak caused by the same novel NmC strain occurred over a wider geographical area, displaying different characteristics to the previous outbreaks. We describe cases treated by Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) in the 2015 outbreak. 

METHODS: From February 10 to June 8, 2015, data on cerebrospinal meningitis (CSM) cases and deaths were recorded on standardized line-lists from case management sites supported by MSF. Cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) samples from suspected cases at the beginning of the outbreak and throughout from suspected cases from new geographical areas were tested using rapid Pastorex® latex agglutination to determine causative serogroup. A subset of CSF samples was also inoculated into Trans-Isolate medium for testing by the WHO Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Meningococci, Oslo. Reactive vaccination campaigns with meningococcal ACWY polysaccharide vaccine targeted affected administrative wards. 

RESULTS: A total of 6394 (65 confirmed and 6329 probable) cases of CSM including 321 deaths (case fatality rate: 5.0%) were recorded. The cumulative attack rate was 282 cases per 100,000 population in the wards affected. The outbreak lasted 17 weeks, affecting 1039 villages in 21 local government areas in three states (Kebbi, Sokoto, Niger). Pastorex® tests were NmC positive for 65 (58%) of 113 CSF samples. Of 31 Trans-Isolate medium samples, 26 (84%) tested positive for NmC (14 through culture and 12 through PCR); all had the same rare PorA type P1.21-15,16 as isolates from the 2013 and 2014 outbreaks. All 14 culture-positive samples yielded isolates of the same genotype (ST-10217 PorA type P1.21-15,16 and FetA type F1-7). More than 222,000 targeted individuals were vaccinated relatively early in the outbreak (administrative coverage estimates 98% and 89% in Kebbi and Sokoto, respectively). 

CONCLUSIONS: The outbreak was the largest caused by NmC documented in Nigeria. Reactive vaccination in both states may have helped curtail the epidemic. A vaccination campaign against NmC with a long-lasting conjugate vaccine should be considered in the region.

Microbial immigration across the Mediterranean via airborne dust

Dust particles lifting and discharge from Africa to Europe is a recurring phenomenon linked to air circulation conditions. The possibility that microorganisms are conveyed across distances entails important consequences in terms of biosafety and pathogens spread. Using culture independent DNA-based analyses via next generation sequencing of the 16 S genes from the airborne metagenome, the atmospheric microbial community was characterized and the hypothesis was tested that shifts in species diversity could be recorded in relation to dust discharge. As sampling ground the island of Sardinia was chosen, being an ideal cornerstone within the Mediterranean and a crossroad of wind circulation amidst Europe and Africa. Samples were collected in two opposite coastal sites and in two different weather conditions comparing dust-conveying winds from Africa with a control situation with winds from Europe. A major conserved core microbiome was evidenced but increases in species richness and presence of specific taxa were nevertheless observed in relation to each wind regime. Taxa which can feature strains with clinical implications were also detected. The approach is reported as a recommended model monitoring procedure for early warning alerts in frameworks of biosafety against natural spread of clinical microbiota across countries as well as to prevent bacteriological warfare.

Non-pathogenic Neisseria: members of an abundant, multi-habitat, diverse genus

The genus Neisseria contains the important pathogens Neisseria meningitidis and Neisseria gonorrhoeae. These Gram-negative coccoid bacteria are generally thought to be restricted to humans and inhabit mucosal surfaces in the upper respiratory and genito-urinary tracts. While the meningococcus and gonococcus have been widely studied, far less attention has been paid to other Neisseria species. Here we review current knowledge of the distribution of commensal Neisseria in humans and other hosts. Analysis of the microbiome has revealed that Neisseria is an abundant member of the oropharyngeal flora, and we review its potential impact on health and disease. Neisseria also exhibit remarkable diversity, exhibiting both coccoid and rod-shaped morphologies, as well as environmental strains which are capable of degrading complex organic molecules.