The societal costs and benefits of commuter bicycling: simulating the effects of specific policies using system dynamics modeling

Navigating health challenges: the interplay between occupation-imposed movement restrictions, healthcare access, and community resilience

BACKGROUND

Transportation plays a significant role in health, community resilience, and access to basic needs such as healthcare, social services, education, and job opportunities. Health and community resilience are, however, impacted by a multitude of complex and unequal factors, such as transportation restrictions exacerbated by the Israeli occupation. The goal of the research was to examine the intricate relationships that exist in Palestine between movement restrictions imposed by occupation, health outcomes, and community resilience.

METHOD

A self-structured questionnaire, devised based on expert conversations and previous literature, was used in this descriptive, quantitative study to explore health and resilience outcomes. Age, gender, marital status, place of residence, and means of transportation were among the various factors that were utilized to describe the socio-demographics of the study sample (n = 202). The researchers employed stepwise multiple regression and descriptive statistics for the data analysis.

RESULTS

Study findings indicated that transportation restrictions have significant direct and indirect health consequences. A significant direct effect is observed, signifying a negative correlation between restrictions and health; increased transportation restrictions are consistently correlated with a decline in health. The study emphasized how place of residence affects health outcomes, with higher scores for campers and people living in green line areas. It also underscores that public means of transportation are found to be better for health outcomes than private cars.

CONCLUSION

This study emphasized that roadblocks, checkpoints, and military incursions make it difficult for Palestinians to receive medical care, which has a detrimental impact on their health and well-being. It also underscores the need for significant reforms in Palestinian health and transportation systems to enhance infrastructure and healthcare access. The Palestinian Authority should invest in public transportation and community resilience programs to address transportation-related health issues, especially in villages, due to frequent settler attacks.

Sabounchi N. Application of group model building in implementation research: A systematic review of the public health and healthcare literature

BACKGROUND

Group model building is a process of engaging stakeholders in a participatory modeling process to elicit their perceptions of a problem and explore concepts regarding the origin, contributing factors, and potential solutions or interventions to a complex issue. Recently, it has emerged as a novel method for tackling complex, long-standing public health issues that traditional intervention models and frameworks cannot fully address. However, the extent to which group model building has resulted in the adoption of evidence-based practices, interventions, and policies for public health remains largely unstudied. The goal of this systematic review was to examine the public health and healthcare applications of GMB in the literature and outline how it has been used to foster implementation and dissemination of evidence-based interventions.

METHODS

We searched PubMed, Web of Science, and other databases through August 2022 for studies related to public health or health care where GMB was cited as a main methodology. We did not eliminate studies based on language, location, or date of publication. Three reviewers independently extracted data on GMB session characteristics, model attributes, and dissemination formats and content.

RESULTS

Seventy-two studies were included in the final review. Majority of GMB activities were in the fields of nutrition (n = 19, 26.4%), health care administration (n = 15, 20.8%), and environmental health (n = 12, 16.7%), and were conducted in the United States (n = 29, 40.3%) and Australia (n = 7, 9.7%). Twenty-three (31.9%) studies reported that GMB influenced implementation through policy change, intervention development, and community action plans; less than a third reported dissemination of the model outside journal publication. GMB was reported to have increased insight, facilitated consensus, and fostered communication among stakeholders.

CONCLUSIONS

GMB is associated with tangible benefits to participants, including increased community engagement and development of systems solutions. Transdisciplinary stakeholder involvement and more rigorous evaluation and dissemination of GMB activities are recommended.

A scoping review of complex systems methods used in population physical activity research: do they align with attributes of a whole system approach?

BACKGROUND

Complex systems approaches are increasingly used in health promotion and noncommunicable disease prevention research, policy and practice. Questions emerge as to the best ways to take a complex systems approach, specifically with respect to population physical activity (PA). Using an Attributes Model is one way to understand complex systems. We aimed to examine the types of complex systems methods used in current PA research and identify what methods align with a whole system approach as reflected by an Attributes Model.

METHODS

A scoping review was conducted and two databases were searched. Twenty-five articles were selected and data analysis was based upon the following: the complex systems research methods used, research aims, if participatory methods were used and evidence of discussion regarding attributes of systems.

RESULTS

There were three groups of methods used: system mapping, simulation modelling and network analysis. System mapping methods appeared to align best with a whole system approach to PA promotion because they largely aimed to understand complex systems, examined interactions and feedback among variables, and used participatory methods. Most of these articles focused on PA (as opposed to integrated studies). Simulation modelling methods were largely focused on examining complex problems and identifying interventions. These methods did not generally focus on PA or use participatory methods. While network analysis articles focused on examining complex systems and identifying interventions, they did not focus on PA nor use participatory methods. All attributes were discussed in some way in the articles. Attributes were explicitly reported on in terms of findings or were part of discussion and conclusion sections. System mapping methods appear to be well aligned with a whole system approach because these methods addressed all attributes in some way. We did not find this pattern with other methods.

CONCLUSIONS

Future research using complex systems methods may benefit from applying the Attributes Model in conjunction with system mapping methods. Simulation modelling and network analysis methods are seen as complementary and could be used when system mapping methods identify priorities for further investigation (e.g. what interventions to implement or how densely connected relationships are in systems).

A scoping review of systems approaches for increasing physical activity in populations

Introduction

The past decade has increasingly seen systems approaches as a featured theme in public health studies and policy documents. This trend is evident in the area of physical activity, which is a significant global health risk factor that is addressed in WHO’s Global Action Plan on Physical Activity. We undertook a comprehensive scoping review to characterize the application of systems approaches to physical activity, to develop a typology of the objectives, themes and methods of research papers that purported to apply systems thinking to this issue.

Methods

We searched electronic databases (PubMed, Web of Science, Scopus and PsycINFO) for studies published during the period 2010–2021 that explicitly applied systems approaches or methods to investigate and/or address population physical activity. A framework using systems-based methodological approaches was adapted to classify physical activity studies according to their predominant approach, covering basic descriptive, complex analytical and advanced forms of practice. We selected case studies from retained studies to depict the current “state of the art”.

Results

We included 155 articles in our narrative account. Literature reporting the application of systems approaches to physical activity is skewed towards basic methods and frameworks, with most attention devoted to conceptual framing and predictive modelling. There are few well-described examples of physical activity interventions which have been planned, implemented and evaluated using a systems perspective. There is some evidence of “retrofitted” complex system framing to describe programmes and interventions which were not designed as such.

Discussion

We propose a classification of systems-based approaches to physical activity promotion together with an explanation of the strategies encompassed. The classification is designed to stimulate debate amongst policy-makers, practitioners and researchers to inform the further implementation and evaluation of systems approaches to physical activity.

Conclusion

The use of systems approaches within the field of physical activity is at an early stage of development, with a preponderance of descriptive approaches and a dearth of more complex analyses. We need to see movement towards a more sophisticated research agenda spanning the development, implementation and evaluation of systems-level interventions.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12961-022-00906-2.

Cyclists and autonomous vehicles at odds

Consequential historical decisions that shaped transportation systems and their influence on society have many valuable lessons. The decisions we learn from and choose to make going forward will play a key role in shaping the mobility landscape of the future. This is especially pertinent as artificial intelligence (AI) becomes more prevalent in the form of autonomous vehicles (AVs). Throughout urban history, there have been cyclical transport oppressions of previous-generation transportation methods to make way for novel transport methods. These cyclical oppressions can be identified in the baroque and modernist periods, and a third oppression may occur in the contemporary period. To explore the idea of a third oppression, we focus on the bicycle and outline the history of cycling to understand how historical mode oppression unfolded. We then present several social and political factors that contributed to the oppression of cycling and share recommendations for how to avoid future oppressions including political, social, and design actions for researchers and policymakers to take. This paper argues that priorities for AI-enabled mobility and cyclist needs be advanced in proportion to the extent that they contribute to societal goals of urban containment, public realm, and proximal cities. Additionally, future mobility evolutions should prioritise mobility justice and mode choice over inducing a singular transportation method.

Influences of Urban Bikeway Design and Land Use on Bike Collision Severity: Evidence from Pohang in South Korea

Since the COVID-19 pandemic significantly impacted mobility patterns, bicycle use and bikeway infrastructure have been spotlighted worldwide. Even before the pandemic, the Korean government expanded bike networks by enacting a national policy. However, issues with bikeway quality have grown significantly due to the excessive installation of bike infrastructure without due consideration given to land use and road conditions. This study aims to investigate bike collision severity based on various kinds of bikeways and land use data from Pohang city, which has a remarkably expanded bikeway network. Bike collision data were analyzed using binary logistic regression. The results indicate that collision severity is associated with the ineffective separation of bikeways, walkway design and pavement materials on side paths, uncleared bike lanes, and land use of planned parks and open spaces. Policymakers can consider these factors to enhance the safety of bikeway networks. These findings highlight the need for bikeway policy improvements for well-designed and managed paved bikeways, particularly on the side paths and in park areas, which ensure pedestrian and cyclist safety.

Protected and unprotected cycle lanes' effects on cyclists' behaviour

Previous research has suggested that in countries with low cycling rates, a barrier to cycling is the perception that cycling is unsafe. Unfortunately, this perception is accurate in many places, and protected cycle lanes have been advocated as a possible solution. Although some research shows that people tend to feel safer in them, there have been conflicting results regarding protected cycle lanes' safety benefits. Understanding the reasons protected cycle lanes may actually reduce safety is key to promoting active transport modes. One possible reason crash rates may increase is that cyclists may cycle faster in them due to either a decreased mental workload or from reduced perceptions of risk. In the present research, two studies were conducted to examine cyclists' speeds and perceptions of difficulty and safety in both protected and unprotected cycle lanes, as well as streets with no cycle lanes. The first study was an online questionnaire using short video clips from a cyclist's perspective, and the second study was an on-road experiment with a post-ride questionnaire. The studies found that cyclists felt safer with protected cycle lanes, were more willing to allow their children to bike on them and showed less concern towards hazards. There was no evidence of decreased attentional demand while using the protected cycle lanes, but there was some evidence of higher maximum cycling speeds.

Qualitative modelling of social determinants of health using group model building: the case of debt, poverty, and health

Background

Social determinants of health (SDoH) are known to have a large impact on health outcomes, but their effects are difficult to make visible. They are part of complex systems of variables largely indirect effects on multiple levels, constituting so-called wicked problems. This study describes a participatory approach using group model building (GMB) with stakeholders, in order to develop a qualitative causal model of the health effects of SDoH, taking poverty and debt in the Dutch city of Utrecht as a case study.

Methods

With GMB we utilised the perspective of stakeholders who are directly involved in policy and practice regarding poverty, debt, and/or health. This was done using system dynamic modelling, in three interactive sessions lasting three hours each. In these sessions, they constructed a model, resulting in a system of variables with causal relationships and feedback loops. Subsequently, the results of these GMB sessions were compared to scientific literature and reviewed by a panel of researchers with extensive experience in relevant scientific fields.

Results

The resulting model contains 71 causal relationships between 39 variables, 29 of which are present in feedback loops. The variables of participation in society, stress, shame, social contacts and use of services/provisions appear to hold prominent roles in the model’s mechanisms. Most of the relationships in the model are supported by scientific literature. The researchers reviewing the model in the scientific meeting agreed that the vast majority of relationships would concur with scientific knowledge, but that the model constructed by the stakeholders consists mostly of individual-level factors, while important conditions usually relate to systemic variables.

Conclusions

Building a model with GMB helps grasp the complex situation of a wicked problem, for which it is unlikely that its interrelationships result in a fully intuitive understanding with linear mechanisms. Using this approach, effects of SDoH can be made visible and the body of evidence expanded. Importantly, it elicits stakeholders’ perspectives on a complex reality and offers a non-arbitrary way of formulating the model structure. This qualitative model is also well suited to serve as conceptual input for a quantitative model, which can be used to test and estimate the relationships.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12939-022-01676-7.

Using system dynamics modelling to assess the economic efficiency of innovations in the public sector - a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Decision-makers for public policy are increasingly utilising systems approaches such as system dynamics (SD) modelling, which test alternative interventions or policies for their potential impact while accounting for complexity. These approaches, however, have not consistently included an economic efficiency analysis dimension. This systematic review aims to examine how, and in what ways, system dynamics modelling approaches incorporate economic efficiency analyses to inform decision-making on innovations (improvements in products, services, or processes) in the public sector, with a particular interest in health.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Relevant studies (n = 29) were identified through a systematic search and screening of four electronic databases and backward citation search, and analysed for key characteristics and themes related to the analytical methods applied. Economic efficiency analysis approaches within SD broadly fell into two categories: as embedded sub-models or as cost calculations based on the outputs of the SD model. Embdedded sub-models within a dynamic SD framework can reveal a clear allocation of costs and benefits to periods of time, whereas cost calculations based on the SD model outputs can be useful for high-level resource allocation decisions.

CONCLUSIONS

This systematic review reveals that SD modelling is not currently used to its full potential to evaluate the technical or allocative efficiency of public sector innovations, particularly in health. The limited reporting on the experience or methodological challenges of applying allocated efficiency analyses with SD, particularly with dynamic embedded models, hampers common learning lessons to draw from and build on. Further application and comprehensive reporting of this approach would be welcome to develop the methodology further.

Housing and accessibility after the COVID-19 pandemic: Rebuilding for resilience, equity and sustainable mobility

A more sustainable post COVID-19 world requires urban transport policies aiming for resilience, social equity and decarbonisation. Instead of just focusing on the transport sector, the authors propose an integrated approach to housing and mobility. This approach acknowledges the challenges posed by inadequate housing and dependence on motorised transport during the COVID-19 crisis. In contrast, adequate housing and cycling became paramount resources while confronting the pandemic. Using Santiago de Chile as a case study, this research examines how different relocation scenarios for its current housing deficit cannot only affect the ability to implement stay-at-home measures, but also the potential of cycling as a relevant commuting alternative. The current location of the families suffering this deficit is compared to three scenarios: compact, pericentral and extended. In light of the learnings from the COVID-19 crisis, a housing-cycling policy becomes a tool for resilience; equity is achieved by enforcing the right to housing, by increasing job opportunities among the poor, and by reducing the dependence on expensive motorised transport; decarbonisation is achieved by promoting active transportation and reducing the dependence on motorisation.

An economic analysis of the health-related benefits associated with bicycle infrastructure investment in three Canadian cities

Objectives

Decision-makers are increasingly requesting economic analyses on transportation-related interventions, but health is often excluded as a determinant of value. We assess the health-related economic impact of bicycle infrastructure investments in three Canadian cities (Victoria, Kelowna and Halifax), comparing a baseline reference year (2016) with the future infrastructure build-out (2020).

Methods

The World Health Organization’s Health Economic Assessment Tool (HEAT; version 4.2) was used to quantify the economic value of health benefits associated with increased bicycling, using a 10-year time horizon. Outputs comprise premature deaths prevented, carbon emissions avoided, and a benefit:cost ratio. For 2016–2020, we derived cost estimates for bicycle infrastructure investments (including verification from city partners) and modelled three scenarios for changes in bicycling mode share: ‘no change’, ‘moderate change’ (a 2% increase), and ‘major change’ (a 5% increase). Further sensitivity analyses (32 per city) examined how robust the moderate scenario findings were to variation in parameter inputs.

Results

Planned bicycle infrastructure investments between 2016 and 2020 ranged from $28–69 million (CAD; in 2016 prices). The moderate scenario benefit:cost ratios were between 1.7:1 (Victoria) and 2.1:1 (Halifax), with the benefit estimate incorporating 9–18 premature deaths prevented and a reduction of 87–142 thousand tonnes of carbon over the 10-year time horizon. The major scenario benefit:cost ratios were between 3.9:1 (Victoria) and 4.9:1 (Halifax), with 19–43 premature deaths prevented and 209–349 thousand tonnes of carbon averted. Sensitivity analyses showed the ratio estimates to be sensitive to the time horizon, investment cost and value of a statistical life inputs.

Conclusion

Within the assessment framework permitted by HEAT, the dollar value of health-related benefits exceeded the cost of planned infrastructure investments in bicycling in the three study cities. Depending on the decision problem, complementary analyses may be required to address broader questions relevant to decision makers in the public sector.

Exploring bicyclist injury severity in bicycle-vehicle crashes using latent class clustering analysis and partial proportional odds models

INTRODUCTION

Bicyclists are more vulnerable compared to other road users. Therefore, it is critical to investigate the contributing factors to bicyclist injury severity to help provide better biking environment and improve biking safety. According to the data provided by National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), a total of 8,028 bicyclists were killed in bicycle-vehicle crashes from 2007 to 2017. The number of fatal bicyclists had increased rapidly by approximately 11.70% during the past 10 years (NHTSA, 2019).

METHODS

This paper conducts a latent class clustering analysis based on the police reported bicycle-vehicle crash data collected from 2007 to 2014 in North Carolina to identify the heterogeneity inherent in the crash data. First, the most appropriate number of clusters is determined in which each cluster has been characterized by the distribution of the featured variables. Then, partial proportional odds models are developed for each cluster to further analyze the impacts on bicyclist injury severity for specific crash patterns.

RESULTS

Marginal effects are calculated and used to evaluate and interpret the effect of each significant explanatory variable. The model results reveal that variables could have different influence on the bicyclist injury severity between clusters, and that some variables only have significant impacts on particular clusters.

CONCLUSIONS

The results clearly indicate that it is essential to conduct latent class clustering analysis to investigate the impact of explanatory variables on bicyclist injury severity considering unobserved or latent features. In addition, the latent class clustering is found to be able to provide more accurate and insightful information on the bicyclist injury severity analysis. Practical Applications: In order to improve biking safety, regulations need to be established to prevent drinking and lights need to be provided since alcohol and lighting condition are significant factors in severe injuries according to the modeling results.

Are Latin American cycling commuters "at risk"? A comparative study on cycling patterns, behaviors, and crashes with non-commuter cyclists

INTRODUCTION

As part of the transformation of urban transportation dynamics, commuter cycling has acquired a high relevance as an alternative mode of transport in different countries, and Latin America seems to be one of the main focus of this worldwide "revolution". However, the high rates of crashes and injuries suffered by commuters have become a relevant issue in the field of road safety, especially in emerging regions with low cycling tradition, where social and infrastructural gaps may endanger the cyclists' safety.

OBJECTIVES

This study had two objectives. First, to compare key safe cycling-related variables between cycling commuters and non-commuters; and second, to differentially asses the effect of individual and cycling-related variables on their self-reported crash rates.

METHOD

For this cross-sectional research, the data provided by 577 Latin American urban cyclists from three countries (Argentina, Colombia and Mexico) with a mean age of 32.7 years was used. They answered a questionnaire on cycling habits, risk perception, rule knowledge, cycling behaviors and riding crashes.

RESULTS

The outcomes of this study showed that, despite having a higher risk perception, cycling commuters perform deliberate risky cycling behaviors (traffic violations) more frequently, and they suffer more crashes; cycling commuters report higher rates of psychological distress, and a lower degree of rule knowledge and protective behaviors than non-commuters. Furthermore, structural similarities and differences in the explanation of cycling crashes were found across commuters and non-commuters.

CONCLUSION

The results of this study suggest that non-commuters, whose purposes for cycling are more aimed at leisure and occasional trips, perform less risky behaviors but suffer more cycling distractions, whereas commuters are comparatively more exposed to behavioral-based safety risks, and suffer more frequent crashes. Since recent evidence forecasts that urban cycling will keep growing in Latin American cities, it is necessary to implement policies and educational/training improvements that may enhance the safety and health of cyclists in these countries.

Appraisal of cycling and pedestrian projects

Cycling and walking have gained a prominent role in the mobility policy agenda as awareness has risen over the growing unsustainability of the current transport system and the multiple co-benefits of active mobility. As interest and investments for cycling and walking increase, how active mobility can be appraised becomes a crucial question, which has been tackled over the years through different methods and tools. The aim of this chapter is to provide a structured review of the methods and the practices of appraisal of walking and cycling policies and projects, focusing on both traditional and emerging assessment techniques. At present, much attention has been paid to the application of four main traditional methods: Balance Sheet Calculations, Cost-Benefit Analysis, Cost-Effectiveness Analysis and Multi-Criteria Analysis. We compare and discuss these methods to identify strengths and weaknesses for each of them, as well as their main limitations and knowledge gaps in their application. We conclude that over the last decades much effort has been undertaken to further expand and develop these tools thanks to an increased attention to walking and cycling. However, much research is still needed, particularly in the quantification and valuation of specific effects within Cost-Benefit Analysis and in better integrating different appraisal techniques. Finally, the impact of appraisals on decision-making outcomes is still underexplored.

Could smart research ensure healthy people in disrupted cities?

BACKGROUND

Since the late 19th century, city planners have struggled to cope with new types of urban transport and mobility that threatened the existing system, or even rendered it obsolete.

PURPOSE

As city planners confront the range of disruptive urban mobilities currently on the horizon, this paper explores how we can draw on a vast body of evidence to anticipate and avoid unintended consequences to people's health and wellbeing.

METHODS

This commentary involved a rapid review of the literature on transport disruption.

RESULTS

We found that to avoid the unintended consequences of disruption, research, policy and practice must think beyond single issues (such as the risk of chronic disease, injury, or traffic management) and consider the broader consequences of interventions. For example, although autonomous vehicles will probably reduce road trauma, what will be the negative consequences for physical inactivity, sedentary behavior, chronic disease, land use, traffic congestion and commuting patterns? Research is needed that considers and informs how to mitigate the range of potential harms caused by disruptive mobilities.

CONCLUSION

In the face of new disruptive mobilities, we must: (a) draw on existing evidence to shape new regulations that address the 'who, when and where' rules of introducing new mobilities (such as electric assisted bicycles (e-bikes) and scooters (e-scooters)) of which the health repercussions can be easily anticipated; (b) monitor and evaluate the implementation of any interventions through natural experiment studies; and (c) use innovative research methods (such as agent-based simulation and health-impact-assessment modelling) to assess the likely effects of emerging disruptive mobilities (e.g., autonomous vehicles) on health and wellbeing and on the environment.

The Association between the Regular Use of ICT Based Mobility Services and the Bicycle Mode Choice in Tehran and Cairo

Regarding the sharp growth rate of ICT (information and communication technology)—based mobility services like ridesourcing, it is essential to investigate the impact of these new mobility services on the transport mode choices, particularly on active mobility modes like cycling. This impact is more important in the MENA context (the Middle East and North Africa), where cycling does not constitute the main mobility mode in the modal split of most MENA cities. This paper studies the relationship between the regular use of ICT-based mobility services like ridesourcing and the tendency to cycle to near destinations. This paper contains the analysis of 4431 interviews in two large cities of the MENA region (Cairo and Tehran). This research uses logistic regression to analyze and compare the odds of cycling among regular and non-regular users of ridesourcing by considering the socio-economic, land use, and perception variables. The findings indicate that the odds of cycling among the regular users of ridesourcing are 2.30 and 1.94 times greater than these odds among non-regular ridesourcing users in Tehran and Cairo, respectively. Therefore, the regular users of ridesourcing are more likely to cycle to their near destinations than non-regular ridesourcing users in these cities.

Participatory quantitative health impact assessment of urban transport planning: A case study from Eastern Africa

BACKGROUND

High rates of motorization in urban areas of Africa have adverse effects on public health. Transport-related mortality will increase as a result of inadequate transport infrastructure, air pollution and sedentary lifestyles. Health Impact Assessments (HIAs) have proven to be a successful tool to predict and mitigate negative health impact of urban transport planning policies, programmes or projects. Yet, there is a gap of evidence on transport and health in African countries. The aim of this study is assessing the health impacts of transport scenarios in Port Louis (city of 119,018 inhabitants in Mauritius) using a full chain participatory HIA model.

METHODS

We estimated health and economic impacts associated to transport scenarios with qualitative data and quantitative comparative risk assessment methods. The health impact modeling was based on differences between the baseline and three transport scenarios (worse, good, ideal), estimating the averted deaths per year and economic outcomes by assessing health determinants of air pollution (AP), traffic deaths and physical activity (PA). Data on air pollution and traffic fatalities were obtained from public data sources. Data used to construct scenarios, establish baseline travel mode shares and physical activity were collected through (a) open-ended individual interviews (IDIs) with 14 stakeholders (b) closed-ended survey questions to 600 citizens and (c) 2 focus group discussions (FGDs) with the same 14 stakeholders from (a).

RESULTS

In Port Louis, the worse-case transport scenario (doubling in car trips and a reduction in walking, motorcycle, and public transport), resulted in a total increment of 3.28 premature deaths per year. The good-case scenario (reducing car trips by half and increasing walking, motorcycle, and public transport trips) resulted in a total increment of 0.79 premature deaths per year. The ideal-case scenario (reduction in car and motorcycle trips and an increase in walking and public transport trips) resulted in a total reduction of 13.72 premature deaths per year. We estimated USD 23 millions of economic benefits related to mortality if the ideal-case was achieved.

CONCLUSION

Participatory HIA shows that implementing transport policies aiming for less than an ideal situation may not be adequate or sufficient to avoid negative transport-related mortality in Mauritius. Urban transport planning is an opportunity to encourage physical activity in rapidly urbanizing settings of Africa. Transport policies should aim to restrict all forms of private motorized vehicles and promote active and public transport to support public health. We highly recommend the use of participatory approaches in quantitative HIA to ensure context specificity and policy relevance.

Applying fast and frugal tree heuristic algorithm to identify factors influencing crash severity of bicycle-vehicle crashes in Tamilnadu

Though bicycle as a mode of transport has many environmental and societal benefits as well as health benefits, bicyclists are one of the most vulnerable road users. According to the report by the Ministry of Road Transport and Highways (MoRTH, 2017), there is a sharp increase in the number of fatal victims in respect of bicyclists in 2017 over 2016. The number of cyclists killed jumped from 2585 in 2016 to 3559 in 2017, a 37.7% increase. In the present study, we present the analysis of the effect of the crash, geometric, environmental and cyclist characteristics on the bicycle-vehicle involved collisions by using the crash dataset of nine years (2009-2017) from Tamilnadu RADMS (Road Accident Data Management System) database with the application of fast and frugal tree (FFT) heuristic algorithm. The complete dataset (9978 crashes) was divided into two separate datasets: training data (6984 crashes) for the development of model and testing data (2984 crashes) for the performance evaluation. FFT algorithm identifies five major hues or variable attributes that influence the severity of bicycle crashes. The five major hues include the number of lanes, road separation, intersection, colliding vehicle type and road category. From the results of the present study, FFT acts as a complementary tool to other complex machine learning algorithms such as support vector machines, random forest, logistic regression and CART. The findings of the present study provide important insights for reducing the severity of bicycle-involved crashes at the planning and operations levels.

Autonomous vehicles and cycling: Policy implications and management issues

Cycling as a form of active transport has great benefits for individuals and society, yet prevalence rates in many countries are low. The advent of autonomous vehicles (AVs) is likely to have substantial implications for cyclists, however little is known about the nature and magnitude of the likely impacts and the resulting implications for government planning and policy. The aim of this exploratory study was to consult with a range of stakeholder groups to identify relevant issues and stimulate debate about future efforts to maximize the benefits of vehicle autonomy for cycling outcomes. Interviews were conducted with key stakeholders representing government (local, state, and federal departments responsible for transport, health, and/or infrastructure), cycling organizations, technology firms, AV manufacturing/servicing companies, trade unions, the law, insurers (public and private), transport policy consortia, and academia. The results suggest that AVs have the potential to increase cycling prevalence while reducing cycling accidents, but that a range of issues will need to be addressed to optimize these outcomes. In particular, informed decisions need to be made about the infrastructure and equipment investments that could encourage larger numbers of commuters to select cycling as their primary form of transport.

Bicycle safety in Bogotá: A seven-year analysis of bicyclists' collisions and fatalities

Road safety research in low- and middle-income countries is limited, even though ninety percent of global road traffic fatalities are concentrated in these locations. In Colombia, road traffic injuries are the second leading source of mortality by external causes and constitute a significant public health concern in the city of Bogotá. Bogotá is among the top 10 most bike-friendly cities in the world. However, bicyclists are one of the most vulnerable road-users in the city. Therefore, assessing the pattern of mortality and understanding the variables affecting the outcome of bicyclists' collisions in Bogotá is crucial to guide policies aimed at improving safety conditions. This study aims to determine the spatiotemporal trends in fatal and nonfatal collision rates and to identify the individual and contextual factors associated with fatal outcomes. We use confidence intervals, geo-statistics, and generalized additive mixed models (GAMM) corrected for spatial correlation. The collisions' records were taken from Bogotá's Secretariat of Mobility, complemented with records provided by non-governmental organizations (NGO). Our findings indicate that from 2011 to 2017, the fatal bicycling collision rates per bicyclists' population have remained constant for females while decreasing 53 % for males. Additionally, we identified high-risk areas located in the west, southwest, and southeast of the city, where the rate of occurrence of fatal events is higher than what occurs in other parts of the city. Finally, our results show associated risk factors that differ by sex. Overall, we find that fatal collisions are positively associated with factors including collisions with large vehicles, the absence of dedicated infrastructure, steep terrain, and nighttime occurrence. Our findings support policy-making and planning efforts to monitor, prioritize, and implement targeted interventions aimed at improving bicycling safety conditions while accounting for gender differences.

What Is the Best Practice Method for Quantifying the Health and Economic Benefits of Active Transport?

The aim of this study was to identify a best practice method to cost the health benefits of active transport for use in infrastructure planning in New South Wales, Australia. We systematically reviewed the international literature covering the concept areas of active transport and cost and health benefits. Original publications describing a method to cost the health benefits of active transport, published in 2000–2019 were included. Studies meeting the inclusion criteria were assessed against criteria identified in interviews with key government stakeholders. A total of 2993 studies were identified, 53 were assessed for eligibility, and 19 were included in the review. The most commonly studied active transport modes were cycling (n = 8) and walking and cycling (n = 6). Exposures considered were physical activity, road transport related injuries and air pollution. The most often applied economic evaluation method was cost benefit analysis (n = 8), and costs were commonly calculated by monetising health outcomes. Based on evaluation of models against the criteria, a Multistate Life Table model was recommended as the best method currently available. There is strong and increasing interest in quantifying and costing the health benefits of active transport internationally. Incorporating health-related economic benefits into existing regulatory processes such as cost benefit analyses could provide an effective way to encourage the non-health sector to include health impacts in infrastructure measures.

A systematic review of empirical and simulation studies evaluating the health impact of transportation interventions

Urban transportation is an important determinant of health and environmental outcomes, and therefore essential to achieving the United Nation's Sustainable Development Goals. To better understand the health impacts of transportation initiatives, we conducted a systematic review of longitudinal health evaluations involving: a) bus rapid transit (BRT); b) bicycle lanes; c) Open Streets programs; and d) aerial trams/cable cars. We also synthesized systems-based simulation studies of the health-related consequences of walking, bicycling, aerial tram, bus and BRT use. Two reviewers screened 3302 unique titles and abstracts identified through a systematic search of MEDLINE (Ovid), Scopus, TRID and LILACS databases. We included 39 studies: 29 longitudinal evaluations and 10 simulation studies. Five studies focused on low- and middle-income contexts. Of the 29 evaluation studies, 19 focused on single component bicycle lane interventions; the rest evaluated multi-component interventions involving: bicycle lanes (n = 5), aerial trams (n = 1), and combined bicycle lane/BRT systems (n = 4). Bicycle lanes and BRT systems appeared effective at increasing bicycle and BRT mode share, active transport duration, and number of trips using these modes. Of the 10 simulation studies, there were 9 agent-based models and one system dynamics model. Five studies focused on bus/BRT expansions and incentives, three on interventions for active travel, and the rest investigated combinations of public transport and active travel policies. Synergistic effects were observed when multiple policies were implemented, with several studies showing that sizable interventions are required to significantly shift travel mode choices. Our review indicates that bicycle lanes and BRT systems represent promising initiatives for promoting population health. There is also evidence to suggest that synergistic effects might be achieved through the combined implementation of multiple transportation policies. However, more rigorous evaluation and simulation studies focusing on low- and middle-income countries, aerial trams and Open Streets programs, and a more diverse set of health and health equity outcomes is required.

Quiet, clean, green, and active: A Navigation Guide systematic review of the impacts of spatially correlated urban exposures on a range of physical health outcomes

BACKGROUND

Recent epidemiologic analyses have considered impacts of multiple spatially correlated urban exposures, but this literature has not been systematically evaluated.

OBJECTIVES

To characterize the long-term impacts of four distinct spatially correlated urban environmental exposures - traffic-related air pollution (TRAP), noise, natural spaces, and neighborhood walkability - by evaluating studies including measures of at least two such exposures in relationship to mortality, cardiovascular disease, chronic respiratory disease, allergy, type 2 diabetes, or reproductive outcomes.

METHODS

Following the Navigation Guide framework, the literature was searched for studies published since 2003 and meeting predefined inclusion criteria. Identified studies were scored individually for risk of bias and all studies related to an exposure-group set were appraised for overall quality and strength of evidence.

RESULTS

A total of 51 individual studies (TRAP and noise: n = 29; TRAP and natural spaces: n = 10; noise and natural spaces: n = 2; TRAP, noise, and natural spaces: n = 7; TRAP, noise, natural spaces, and walkability: n = 3) were included. When TRAP and noise were considered jointly, evidence was sufficient for increased cardiovascular morbidity with higher noise exposures; sufficient for no effect of TRAP on CVD morbidity; sufficient for increased mortality with higher TRAP exposures, but limited for noise; and limited for increased adverse reproductive outcomes with higher TRAP exposures and no effect of noise. Looking at natural spaces and TRAP, there was limited evidence for lower risk of chronic respiratory disease and small increases in birthweight with greater natural space; this relationship with birthweight persisted after adjustment for noise as well. Evidence was inadequate for all other exposure groups and outcomes.

DISCUSSION

Studies that properly account for the complexity of relationships between urban form and physical health are limited but suggest that even highly correlated exposures may have distinct effects.

REVIEW REGISTRATION

PROSPERO 2018 CRD42018106050.

Suburb-level changes for active transport to meet the SDGs: Causal theory and a New Zealand case study

The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and its Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) represent a historic global linking of health, equity and environmental sustainability. Accumulated evidence suggests that improving urban neighbourhoods to make them safer and more attractive for walking and cycling can accelerate progress towards the SDGs. The pathways to change are complex, non-linear and involve multiple pathways and multiple SDG outcomes, yet the SDG goals are often considered in isolation. Further, there have been few studies of environmental interventions for healthier transport that foreground equity. The aim of this paper is to describe and demonstrate practically how integrated interventions for placemaking and active transport can contribute to a wide range of SDG targets. First, we take an evidence-based approach to describing how such interventions are connected to targets within the SDGs. Second, we propose a complex causal theory of the pathways to change and the inter-relationships between SDGs. Third, we show, with concrete examples, how a case study project in Auckland, New Zealand illustrates these pathways, contributing to achieving the SDG targets, including barriers and challenges. We find that by addressing Goal 11 in particular ways that focus on equity (Goal 10), eight of the other goals can also be advanced. Our causal theory describes one balancing and 12 reinforcing patterns of behaviour that link interventions improvements to neighbourhoods with ten of the SDGs in a complex system. Our case study demonstrates that it is possible to successfully put this causal theory into practice through interventions, but these require strong partnerships between researchers, public health practitioners, policy-makers and communities, long-term evaluation and addressing both physical and social environments.

Integrating complex systems science into road safety research and practice, part 1: review of formative concepts

Many of our most persistent public health problems are complex problems. They arise from a web of factors that interact and change over time and may exhibit resistance to intervention efforts. The domain of systems science provides several tools to help injury prevention researchers and practitioners examine deep, complex and persistent problems and identify opportunities to intervene. Using the increase in pedestrian death rates as an example, we provide (1) an accessible overview of how complex systems science approaches can augment established injury prevention frameworks and (2) a straightforward example of how specific systems science tools can deepen understanding, with a goal of ultimately informing action.

Health economic assessment of a shift to active transport

Active transportation (walking or cycling) as a substitute for car trips still represents a small percentage of all daily travels in many European cities. This study aimed to estimate the health and economic co-benefits for the adult population of modal shift from driving to active travel in urban environments. Three scenarios were modelled for the case study, the city of Porto, Portugal, by comparing travel patterns of 2013 to hypothetical scenarios of modal shifts from driving to active transport, namely: i) SC1 - conservative scenario, with a change of 5% from driving to cycling and 10% from driving to walking; ii) SC2 - moderate scenario, with a shift of 10% and 15%, respectively; and iii) SC3 - optimistic scenario, with a shift of 15% and 20%, respectively. The mortality risk reduction for five health outcomes (colon and breast cancers, diabetes, ischemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease) was assessed, including an estimation of traffic injury and air pollution exposure risks. Results were presented in Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) avoided. Economic valuation for each scenario was performed using a Willingness-to-Pay approach for morbimortality and a Cost of Illness approach for 2013 hospitalizations and work absenteeism. Significant health benefits were found in all modelled scenarios, ranging from 1657 (16%) to 2881 (28%) DALYs avoided. Total costs averted ranged from €3894 to €6769 million through the scenarios. Cardio and cerebrovascular diseases mortality presented the largest benefit, accounting for about 3/4 of all avoidable DALYs in all scenarios. Reductions in CO₂ and PM₁₀ emissions were calculated, showing a decrease from 31.6 to 73.7 kt of CO₂ and 7 to 16 t for PM₁₀, respectively. A modal shift towards active transportation could lead to significant health and economic benefits, indicating that the evaluation of health impacts should be included in the analysis of active transport interventions.

Study on the Characteristics of Urban Residents' Commuting Behavior and Influencing Factors from the Perspective of Resilience Theory: Theoretical Construction and Empirical Analysis from Nanjing, China

In the transitional period of China’s urbanization, commuting problems and demands are diversified and multi-level, so commuting research topics, viewpoints, and analysis paths should be organically combined to dynamically adapt to the complex commuting contradictions. Based on this, this paper introduces the resilience theory to improve the research paradigm of commuting behavior. Taking Nanjing, China as a case study, with the help of the survey data of commuting behavior of typical communities, this paper provides an empirical analysis of the characteristics and influencing factors of urban residents’ commuting behavior from the perspective of resilience theory. The results show that: (1) in the face of commuting pressure, to a large extent, most commuters can still obtain commuting adaptability and a medium level or higher of commuting resilience; and (2) personal attributes, living and employment environment, and commuting environment all have significant heterogeneity effects on commuting pressure, commuting adaptability, and commuting resilience. From the perspective of resilience theory, the means of regulating commuting conflicts are flexible, which can not only directly reduce commuting pressure or optimize commuting adaptability, but also improve commuting resilience according to the specific commuting scenarios constructed by commuting pressure and adaptability. On the whole, the principles of comprehensive improvement, on-demand supply, and dynamic adjustment should be followed.

Exploring the severity of bicycle-vehicle crashes using latent class clustering approach in India

INTRODUCTION

Bicyclists are vulnerable users in the shared asset like roadways. However, people still prefer to use bicycles for environmental, societal, and health benefits. In India, the bicycle plays a role in supporting the mobility to more people at lower cost and are often associated with the urban poor. Bicyclists represents one of the road user categories with highest risk of injuries and fatalities. According to the report by the Ministry of Road Transport and Highways (Accidents, 2017) in India, there is a sharp increase in the number of fatal victims for bicyclists in 2017 over 2016. The number of cyclists killed jumped from 2,585 in 2016 to 3,559 in 2017, a 37.7% increase.

METHOD

Few studies have only investigated the crash risk perceived by the bicyclists while interacting with other road users. The present paper investigates the injury severity of bicyclists in bicycle-vehicle crashes that occurred in the state of Tamilnadu, India during the nine year period (2009-2017). The analyses demonstrate that dividing bicycle-vehicle collision data into five clusters helps in reducing the systematic heterogeneity present in the data and identify the hidden relationship between the injury severity levels of bicyclists and cyclists demographics, vehicle, environmental, temporal cause for the crashes.

RESULTS

Latent Class Clustering (LCC) approach was used in the present study as a preliminary tool for the segmentation of 9,978 crashes. Later, logistic regression analysis was used to identify the factors that influence bicycle crash severity for the whole dataset as well as for the clusters that were obtained from the LCC model. Results of this study show that combined use of both techniques reveals further information that wouldn't be obtained without prior segmentation of the data. Few variables such as season, weather conditions, and light conditions were significant for certain clusters that were hidden in the whole dataset. This study can help domain experts or traffic safety researchers to segment traffic crashes and develop targeted countermeasures to mitigate injury severity.

Systems thinking in the context of road safety: Can systems tools help us realize a true "Safe Systems" approach?

Purpose of review

Road traffic injuries are one of the leading causes of death in the U.S. and globally. We introduce the Safe Systems approach as a promising paradigm for road safety practice and describe how systems thinking tools can help bridge the gap between the current status quo and a Safe Systems approach.

Recent findings

Systems thinking tools can help us align with a Safe Systems approach by identifying latent risks in the transportation system, examining factors that coalesce to produce high travel speeds and kinetic energy transfer, and supporting safety prioritization through goal alignment.

Summary

The Safe Systems approach represents a significant change in the way we have historically designed transportation systems; it puts safety at the forefront and calls for designing a system that accounts for human fallibility. Operationalizing holistic Safe Systems concepts may be difficult, but systems thinking tools can help. Systems thinking tools provide a common language for individuals from diverse disciplines and sectors to express their unique understanding of the interconnected factors shaping road safety problems and support discussions about potential solutions that align with a Safe Systems approach.

Occurrence of potentially pathogenic bacteria on shared bicycles

BACKGROUND

Shared bicycles offer the potential to be sources for interindividual bacterial community transfer. However, the overall ecology of the bacterial community persisting on the shared bicycles is still unknown.

METHODS

We used 16S rRNA sequencing techniques in combination with multiple bioinformatic analyses to profile bacterial communities on shared bicycle handles and saddles in selected five locations in a metropolitan area (Chengdu, China). Samples of air around shared bicycles were collected as a control.

RESULTS

We demonstrate that the species richness and diversity of samples from shared bicycles are significantly higher than those of surrounding air samples. Taxonomical composition indicates that community structure of shared bicycle handles and saddles are also different. Additionally, high occurrence of pathogenic or potentially pathogenic genera is found on the surfaces of shared bicycles, including Sphingomonas, Acinetobacter, Staphylococcus, and Cutibacterium. Moreover, PICRUSt (Phylogenetic Investigation of Communities by Reconstruction of Unobserved States) further verifies that bacteria involved in signaling pathways related to human diseases are at significantly higher levels in shared bicycle samples, while bacteria associated with environmental information processing pathways are at significantly higher levels in the air samples.

CONCLUSION

Our results reveal the profiles of bacterial communities on shared bicycles, and suggest that potentially pathogenic bacteria may impair human health through shared bicycles, especially in susceptible individuals. Notably, this investigation will prompt the public to pay more attention to the management of bicycle sharing programs worldwide, and it also provides research basis for the government to formulate corresponding public health policies.

Integrating complex systems science into road safety research and practice, Part 2: applying systems tools to the problem of increasing pedestrian death rates

OBJECTIVES

To provide a specific example of how systems dynamics tools can increase understanding of stakeholder 'mental models' and generate robust systems-based hypotheses about the escalating problem of rising pedestrian death rates in the USA.

METHODS

We designed and facilitated two group model building (GMB) workshops. Participants generated causal loop diagrams (CLDs) individually and in small groups to explore hypotheses concerning time-dynamic interacting factors underlying the increasing rates of pedestrian deaths. Using a grounded theory approach, research team members synthesised the structures and hypotheses into a single CLD.

RESULTS

CLDs from the 41 participants indicated four core factors hypothesised to have a direct impact on pedestrian fatalities: pedestrian-vehicle crashes, vehicle speed at the time of the crash, vehicle size/dimensions and emergency response time. Participants diagrammed how actions and reactions impacted these proximal factors over time and led to ripple effects throughout a larger system to generate an increase in pedestrian deaths. Hypothesised contributing mechanisms fell within the following broad categories: community responses; research, policy and industry influence; potential unintended consequences of responses to pedestrian deaths; and the role of sprawl.

CONCLUSIONS

This application of systems science tools suggested several strategies for advancing injury prevention research and practice. The project generated robust hypotheses and advanced stakeholder communication and depth of understanding and engagement in this key issue. The CLD and GMB process detailed in this study provides a concrete example of how systems tools can be adopted and applied to a transportation safety topic.

Climate change and the surgeon: what is the problem? Why is it so hard? What can be done?

We know very well what causes climate change, and in general terms, what the dangers are. This is a new kind of environmental problem, it is not like taking lead out of petrol, and it is important to understand why responding to climate change is so challenging. But that is no reason to give up: in fact there are many opportunities to intervene, including actions that can be taken by surgeons and other health professionals.

Towards a Low Emission Transport System: Evaluating the Public Health and Environmental Benefits

Climate change mitigation strategies offer significant societal co-benefits such as improvement in public health, air quality, local economy, and even safety. By considering these co-benefits during the transportation planning process, local governments would be able to link their local appreciate mitigation actions into the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), where diverse objectives should be achieved simultaneously. This study first clarifies the co-benefits approach to climate change mitigation in the transport system, by introducing an integrated multiple-impact framework known as A-S-I (Avoid-Shift-Improve) to evaluate the co-benefits. Thereafter, it applies the quantitative modeling approach to assess public health and environmental co-benefits of the implementation of the Tehran Transportation Master Plan, “the TTMP” in the city of Tehran, Iran, which includes targeted interventions such as shifting from private vehicles to the urban transport system, improving vehicle technologies and introducing alternative fuels. The results from the application of “the TTMP” reveal a significant reduction of CO2 and other local air pollutant emissions by 12.9 and 1.4 million tons, respectively, prevention of about 10,000 mortality cases, and more than USD 35 million savings by 2030.

System dynamics applications to injury and violence prevention: a systematic review

Purpose of review

System dynamics (SD) is an approach to solving problems in the context of dynamic complexity. The purpose of this review was to summarize SD applications in injury prevention and highlight opportunities for SD to contribute to injury prevention research and practice.

Recent findings

While SD has been increasingly used to study public health problems over the last few decades, uptake in the injury field has been slow. We identified 18 studies, mostly conducted in the last 10 years. Applications covered a range of topics (e.g., road traffic injury; overdose; violence), employed different types of SD tools (i.e., qualitative and quantitative), and served a variety of research and practice purposes (e.g., deepen understanding of a problem, policy analysis).

Summary

Given the many ways that SD can add value and complement traditional research and practice approaches (e.g., through novel stakeholder engagement and policy analysis tools), increased investment in SD-related capacity building and opportunities that support SD use are warranted.

Trends in bicycle-related injuries, hospital admissions, and deaths in the USA 1997-2013

Objective: Cycling is associated with numerous health benefits but also the risk of traumatic injury. Recent data demonstrate an increase in overall cycling injuries as well as hospital admissions from 1997 to 2013 in the United States. We seek to better understand the causes of the increase in cycling injuries and hospital admissions. Methods: Data regarding cycling-related injuries and hospital admissions were obtained from the National Electronic Injury Surveillance System (NEISS). Participation data were derived from the National Sporting Goods Association Sports Participation Survey, and fatality data were collected from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS). Population estimates were obtained using a complex survey design. Linear regression was used to evaluate univariate relationships between cycling injuries, hospital admissions, deaths, and participation. To evaluate factors associated with hospital admission, we developed a multivariable logistic regression model that included year, age, gender, body part injured, and injury type (i.e., contusion, fracture, or laceration). Results: The number of individuals who cycle did not change significantly over time, but there was a substantial increase in cycling-related injuries, leading to an increase in per participant injuries from 701/100,000 in 1997 to 1,164/100,000 in 2013. When the injuries were evaluated by age group, younger cyclists have an increased risk for injury, whereas the rise in injuries among older cyclists stemmed from an increase in ridership rather than a unique susceptibility to injury. Trends in hospital admissions and fatalities appeared to be driven by increases in the older age groups. In the multivariable model evaluating factors related to hospital admission, the odds of hospital admission increased for each decade after age 25, as well as male gender and body part injured. Conclusion: On a per participant basis, the rate of cycling-related injuries and hospital admissions increased between 1997 and 2013. This trend likely reflects a combination of shifting demographics among cyclists with an increase in older cyclists who are at increased risk of severe injury.

System Dynamics Approaches and Collective Action for Community Health: An Integrative Review

System dynamics (SD) methods, from qualitative causal loop diagramming to quantitative simulation modeling, have the potential to be powerful tools for engaging community stakeholders interested in improving health. However, the extent to which SD drives collective action to improve community health is unclear. The objective of this review was to understand how often, why, and how SD has been used by cross-sector community collectives. Of 409 identified manuscripts describing application of SD to community health, only 31 (7.6%) documented cross-sector collective use of these tools. All 31 had as a purpose using SD to better understand community health problems, but only seven (22.6%) documented a collective action taken as the result. In nine of the 31 articles (29.0%), no learning, decisions, or action was documented. The most common form of collective participation in SD work among the seven collectives reporting resulting action was building the SD model, with implementing a new program or practice the most frequently mentioned collective action resulting. Cost and access were the most common system outcomes studied, and chronic diseases and prevention were commonly mentioned as the focal health outcomes. Overall, SD methods seem underutilized for engaging cross-sector collectives in addressing complex community health problems.

Bicycle Level of Service for Route Choice—A GIS Evaluation of Four Existing Indicators with Empirical Data

Bicycle Level of Service (BLOS) indicators are used to provide objective ratings of the bicycle suitability (or quality) of links or intersections in transport networks. This article uses empirical bicycle route choice data from 467 university students in Trondheim, Norway to test the applicability of BLOS rating schemes for the estimation of whole-journey route choice. The methods evaluated share a common trait of being applicable for mixed traffic urban environments: Bicycle Compatibility Index (BCI), Bicycle Stress Level (BSL), Sixth Edition Highway Capacity Manual (HCM6), and Level of Traffic Stress (LTS). Routes are generated based on BLOS-weighted networks and the suitability of these routes is determined by finding the percentage overlap with empirical route choices. The results show that BCI provides the best match with empirical route data in all five origin–destination pairs, followed by HCM6. BSL and LTS which are not empirically founded have a lower match rate, although the differences between the four methods are relatively small. By iterating the detour rate that cyclists are assumed to be willing to make, it is found that the best match with modelled BLOS routes is achieved between 15 and 21% additional length. This falls within the range suggested by existing empirical research on willingness to deviate from the shortest path, however, it is uncertain whether the method will deliver the comparable findings in other cycling environments.

Is the decline of active travel to school unavoidable by-products of economic growth and urbanization in developing countries?

BACKGROUND

Economic growth and urbanization may contribute to the decline of active travel to school (ATS). We aim to explain the change of ATS in China between 1997 and 2011 and to predict the prevalence of ATS in China within the next 30 years using various scenario.

METHODS

We developed a system dynamics model to study ATS and the model assumes the prevalence of ATS is determined by the dynamic interaction of four exogenous and eight endogenous variables.

RESULTS

The simulated prevalence of ATS is roughly consistent with empirical data. Economic development and urban sprawl are more influential than urban design and crime in terms of ATS. Under a relatively reasonable scenario, the prevalence of ATS is projected to decrease from 73% in 2011 to 65% in 2014, and the prevalence of childhood overweight & obesity is projected to increase from 24% in 2011 to 34% in 2041. With the maintaining of economic development grow, to control urban sprawl is the most effective measure to promote ATS and decrease childhood obesity.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, the model enabled us to conduct experiments to test the possible effects of changing one or more factors taking into account their dynamic interrelationship, and our study may provide implications for policy intervention.

Cost-Effectiveness of Improvements to the Built Environment Intended to Increase Physical Activity

Background: Improving sidewalks may encourage physical activity by providing safe, defined, and connected walking spaces. However, it is unknown if reduced health care expenditures assumed by increased physical activity offset the investment for sidewalk improvements. Methods: This cost-effectiveness analysis of sidewalk improvements in Houston, TX, was among adults enrolled in the Houston Travel-Related Activity in Neighborhoods Study, 2013-2017 . The 1-year change in physical activity was measured using self-report (n = 430) and accelerometry (n = 228) and expressed in metabolic equivalent (MET) hours per year (MET·h·y^-1). Cost-effectiveness ratios were calculated by comparing annualized sidewalk improvement costs (per person) with 1-year changes in physical activity. Results: The estimated cost-effectiveness ratio were $0.01 and -$0.46 per MET·h·y^-1 for self-reported and accelerometer-derived physical activity, respectively. The cost-effectiveness benchmark was $0.18 (95% confidence interval, $0.06-$0.43) per MET·h·y^-1 gained based on the volume of physical activity necessary to avoid health care costs. Conclusions: Improving sidewalks was cost-effective based on self-reported physical activity, but not cost-effective based on accelerometry. Study findings suggest that improving sidewalks may not be a sufficient catalyst for changing total physical activity; however, other benefits of making sidewalks more walkable should be considered when deciding to invest in sidewalk improvements.

Socioeconomic inequalities in urban and transport planning related exposures and mortality: A health impact assessment study for Bradford, UK

BACKGROUND

Cities have unique geographic, environmental and sociocultural characteristics that influence the health status of their citizens. Identification and modification of these characteristics may help to promote healthier cities.

OBJECTIVE

We estimated premature mortality impacts of breaching international exposure guidelines for physical activity (PA), air pollution, noise and access to green space for Bradford (UK) adult residents (n = 393,091).

METHODS

We applied the Urban and TranspOrt Planning Health Impact Assessment (UTOPHIA) methodology and estimated mortality, life expectancy (LE) and economic impacts of non-compliance with recommended exposure levels. We also investigated the distribution of the mortality burden among the population, focusing on socioeconomic position (SEP) as defined by deprivation status and ethnicity.

RESULTS

We estimated that annually almost 10% of premature mortality (i.e. 375 deaths, 95% CI: 276-474) in Bradford is attributable to non-compliance with recommended exposure levels. Non-compliance was also estimated to result in over 300 days of LE lost (95% CI: 238-432), which translated in economic losses of over £50,000 per person (95% CI: 38,518-69,991). 90% of the premature mortality impact resulted from insufficient PA performance. Air and noise pollution and the lack of green space had smaller impacts (i.e. 48 deaths). Residents of lower SEP neighborhoods had the highest risks for adverse exposure and premature death. A larger number of deaths (i.e. 253 and 145, respectively) could be prevented by reducing air and noise pollution levels well below the guidelines.

DISCUSSION

Current urban and transport planning related exposures result in a considerable health burden that is unequally distributed among the Bradford population. Improvements in urban and transport planning practices including the reduction of motor traffic and the promotion of active transport together with greening of the district, particularly in areas of lower SEP, are promising strategies to increase PA performance and reduce harmful environmental exposures.

Exploring changes in active travel uptake and cessation across the lifespan: Longitudinal evidence from the UK Household Longitudinal Survey

This study aims to explore changes in uptake and cessation of walking, cycling and public transport use across the lifespan in a representative sample of UK adults aged 16 and older. A longitudinal analysis of 11,559 individuals in waves two (2010–2012) and six (2014–2016) of the General Population Sample (GPS) of the UK Household Longitudinal Survey (UKHLS) was performed. The outcome variables were self-reported and categorised as changes to and from 1) walking or cycling and 2) public transport. In adjusted models compared to younger adults (aged 16–34), middle-aged adults (aged 45–55: OR 0.66, p = 0.050) and older adults (aged >55: OR 0.53, p = 0.017) were significantly less likely to initiate walking/cycling during the study period. Middle and older aged adults were also significantly less likely to cease walking/cycling (aged 45–55: OR 0.68, p = 0.019; aged >55: OR 0.46, p < 0.001) and public transport use (aged 45–55: OR 0.33, p < 0.001; aged >55: OR 0.28, p < 0.001). Dose response relationships were observed where increasing age was associated with increased stability in transport mode. Developmental processes in early adulthood may contribute to self-selection and sustainability of active commuting in later life. Active travel programs and policies that target younger adults may be an efficient means to increase and sustain participation in active commuting.

•

In the UK younger adults are more likely to initiate and cease active travel than older adults.

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Advancing age is associated with increased stability in commuting modes.

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A developmental perspective may help to understand drivers of transport behaviour change.

•

Potential exists for active travel programs and policies to be tailored to age groups.

Controlled before-after intervention study of suburb-wide street changes to increase walking and cycling: Te Ara Mua-Future Streets study design

BACKGROUND

Achieving a shift from car use to walking, cycling and public transport in cities is a crucial part of healthier, more environmentally sustainable human habitats. Creating supportive active travel environments is an important precursor to this shift. The longevity of urban infrastructure necessitates retrofitting existing suburban neighbourhoods. Previous studies of the effects of street changes have generally relied on natural experiments, have included few outcomes, and have seldom attempted to understand the equity impacts of such interventions.

METHODS

In this paper we describe the design of Te Ara Mua - Future Streets, a mixed-methods, controlled before-after intervention study to assess the effect of retrofitting street changes at the suburb scale on multiple health, social and environmental outcomes. The study has a particular focus on identifying factors that improve walking and cycling to local destinations in low-income neighbourhoods and on reducing social and health inequities experienced by Māori (Indigenous New Zealanders) and Pacific people. Qualitative system dynamics modelling was used to develop a causal theory for the relationships between active travel, and walking and cycling infrastructure. On this basis we selected outcomes of interest. Together with the transport funder, we triangulated best evidence from the literature, transport policy makers, urban design professionals and community knowledge to develop interventions that were contextually and culturally appropriate. Using a combination of direct observation and random sample face to face surveys, we are measuring outcomes in these domains of wellbeing: road-user behaviour, changes to travel mode for short trips, physical activity, air quality, road traffic injuries, greenhouse gas emissions, and perceptions of neighbourhood social connection, safety, and walking and cycling infrastructure .

DISCUSSION

While building on previous natural experiments, Te Ara Mua - Future Streets is unique in testing an intervention designed by the research team, community and transport investors together; including a wide range of objective outcome measures; and having an equity focus. When undertaking integrated intervention studies of this kind, a careful balance is needed between epidemiological imperatives, the constraints of transport funding and implementation and community priorities, while retaining the ability to contribute new evidence for healthy, equitable transport policy. The study was retrospectively registered as a clinical trial on 21 June 2018 in the ISCRTN registry: ISRCTN89845334 http://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN89845334.

Correlates of the Built Environment and Active Travel: Evidence from 20 US Metropolitan Areas

BACKGROUND

Walking and bicycling are health-promoting and environmentally friendly alternatives to the automobile. Previous studies that explore correlates of active travel and the built environment are for a single metropolitan statistical area (MSA) and results often vary among MSAs.

OBJECTIVES

Our goal was to model the relationship between the built environment and active travel for 20 MSAs spanning the continental United States.

METHODS

We sourced and processed pedestrian and bicycle traffic counts for 20 U.S. MSAs (n=4,593 count locations), with 1–17 y of data available for each count location and the earliest and latest years of data collection being 1999 and 2016, respectively. Then, we tabulated land use, transport, and sociodemographic variables at 12 buffer sizes (100–3,000 m) for each count location. We employed stepwise linear regression to develop predictive models for morning and afternoon peak-period bicycle and pedestrian traffic volumes.

RESULTS

Built environment features were significant predictors of active travel across all models. Areas with easy access to water and green space, high concentration of jobs, and high rates of active commuting were associated with higher bicycle and pedestrian volumes. Bicycle facilities (e.g., bike lanes, shared lane markings, off-street trails) were correlated with higher bicycle volumes. All models demonstrated reasonable goodness-of-fit for both bicyclists (adj-R²: 0.46–0.61) and pedestrians (adj-R²: 0.42–0.72). Cross-validation results showed that the afternoon peak-period models were more reliable than morning models.

CONCLUSIONS

To our knowledge, this is the first study to model multi-city trends in bicycling and walking traffic volumes with the goal of developing generalized estimates of the impact of the built environment on active travel. Our models could be used for exposure assessment (e.g., crashes, air pollution) to inform design of health-promoting cities. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP3389.

The application of system dynamics modelling to environmental health decision-making and policy - a scoping review

BACKGROUND

Policy and decision-making processes are routinely challenged by the complex and dynamic nature of environmental health problems. System dynamics modelling has demonstrated considerable value across a number of different fields to help decision-makers understand and predict the dynamic behaviour of complex systems in support the development of effective policy actions. In this scoping review we investigate if, and in what contexts, system dynamics modelling is being used to inform policy or decision-making processes related to environmental health.

METHODS

Four electronic databases and the grey literature were systematically searched to identify studies that intersect the areas environmental health, system dynamics modelling, and decision-making. Studies identified in the initial screening were further screened for their contextual, methodological and application-related relevancy. Studies deemed 'relevant' or 'highly relevant' according to all three criteria were included in this review. Key themes related to the rationale, impact and limitation of using system dynamics in the context of environmental health decision-making and policy were analysed.

RESULTS

We identified a limited number of relevant studies (n = 15), two-thirds of which were conducted between 2011 and 2016. The majority of applications occurred in non-health related sectors (n = 9) including transportation, public utilities, water, housing, food, agriculture, and urban and regional planning. Applications were primarily targeted at micro-level (local, community or grassroots) decision-making processes (n = 9), with macro-level (national or international) decision-making to a lesser degree. There was significant heterogeneity in the stated rationales for using system dynamics and the intended impact of the system dynamics model on decision-making processes. A series of user-related, technical and application-related limitations and challenges were identified. None of the reported limitations or challenges appeared unique to the application of system dynamics within the context of environmental health problems, but rather to the use of system dynamics in general.

CONCLUSIONS

This review reveals that while system dynamics modelling is increasingly being used to inform decision-making related to environmental health, applications are currently limited. Greater application of system dynamics within this context is needed before its benefits and limitations can be fully understood.

Revealed Preference Methods for Studying Bicycle Route Choice-A Systematic Review

One fundamental aspect of promoting utilitarian bicycle use involves making modifications to the built environment to improve the safety, efficiency and enjoyability of cycling. Revealed preference data on bicycle route choice can assist greatly in understanding the actual behaviour of a highly heterogeneous group of users, which in turn assists the prioritisation of infrastructure or other built environment initiatives. This systematic review seeks to compare the relative strengths and weaknesses of the empirical approaches for evaluating whole journey route choices of bicyclists. Two electronic databases were systematically searched for a selection of keywords pertaining to bicycle and route choice. In total seven families of methods are identified: GPS devices, smartphone applications, crowdsourcing, participant-recalled routes, accompanied journeys, egocentric cameras and virtual reality. The study illustrates a trade-off in the quality of data obtainable and the average number of participants. Future additional methods could include dockless bikeshare, multiple camera solutions using computer vision and immersive bicycle simulator environments.

Urban Form, Air Pollution, and Health

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Urban form can impact air pollution and public health. We reviewed health-related articles that assessed (1) the relationships among urban form, air pollution, and health as well as (2) aspects of the urban environment (i.e., green space, noise, physical activity) that may modify those relationships.

RECENT FINDINGS

Simulation and empirical studies demonstrate an association between compact growth, improved regional air quality, and health. Most studies are cross-sectional and focus on connections between transportation emissions and land use. The physical and mental health impacts of green space, public spaces that promote physical activity, and noise are well-studied aspects of the urban environment and there is evidence that these factors may modify the relationship between air pollution and health. Urban form can support efforts to design clean, health-promoting cities. More work is needed to operationalize specific strategies and to elucidate the causal pathways connecting various aspects of health.

Air pollution as a risk factor in health impact assessments of a travel mode shift towards cycling

BACKGROUND

Promotion of active commuting provides substantial health and environmental benefits by influencing air pollution, physical activity, accidents, and noise. However, studies evaluating intervention and policies on a mode shift from motorized transport to cycling have estimated health impacts with varying validity and precision.

OBJECTIVE

To review and discuss the estimation of air pollution exposure and its impacts in health impact assessment studies of a shift in transport from cars to bicycles in order to guide future assessments.

METHODS

A systematic database search of PubMed was done primarily for articles published from January 2000 to May 2016 according to PRISMA guidelines.

RESULTS

We identified 18 studies of health impact assessment of change in transport mode. Most studies investigated future hypothetical scenarios of increased cycling. The impact on the general population was estimated using a comparative risk assessment approach in the majority of these studies, whereas some used previously published cost estimates. Air pollution exposure during cycling was estimated based on the ventilation rate, the pollutant concentration, and the trip duration. Most studies employed exposure-response functions from studies comparing background levels of fine particles between cities to estimate the health impacts of local traffic emissions. The effect of air pollution associated with increased cycling contributed small health benefits for the general population, and also only slightly increased risks associated with fine particle exposure among those who shifted to cycling. However, studies calculating health impacts based on exposure-response functions for ozone, black carbon or nitrogen oxides found larger effects attributed to changes in air pollution exposure.

CONCLUSION

A large discrepancy between studies was observed due to different health impact assessment approaches, different assumptions for calculation of inhaled dose and different selection of dose-response functions. This kind of assessments would improve from more holistic approaches using more specific exposure-response functions.

Bicycle Facilities That Address Safety, Crime, and Economic Development: Perceptions from Morelia, Mexico

México is a developing nation and, in the city of Morelia, the concept of the bicyclist as a road user appeared only recently in the Municipal Traffic Regulations. Perhaps the right bicycle infrastructure could address safety, crime, and economic development. To identify the best infrastructure, six groups in Morelia ranked and commented on pictures of bicycle environments that exist in bicycle-friendly nations. Perceptions about bike paths, but only those with impossible-to-be-driven-over solid barriers, were associated with safety from crashes, lowering crime, and contributing to economic development. Shared use paths were associated with lowering the probability of car/bike crashes but lacked the potential to deter crime and foster the local economy. Joint bus and bike lanes were associated with lower safety because of the unwillingness by Mexican bus drivers to be courteous to bicyclists. Gender differences about crash risk biking in the road with the cars (6 best/0 worst scenario) were statistically significant (1.4 for male versus 0.69 for female; p < 0.001). For crashes, crime, and economic development, perceptions about bicycle infrastructure were different in this developing nation perhaps because policy, institutional context, and policing (ticketing for unlawful parking) are not the same as in a developed nation. Countries such as Mexico should consider building cycle tracks with solid barriers to address safety, crime, and economic development.

Understanding bicycling in cities using system dynamics modelling

BACKGROUND

Increasing urban bicycling has established net benefits for human and environmental health. Questions remain about which policies are needed and in what order, to achieve an increase in cycling while avoiding negative consequences. Novel ways of considering cycling policy are needed, bringing together expertise across policy, community and research to develop a shared understanding of the dynamically complex cycling system. In this paper we use a collaborative learning process to develop a dynamic causal model of urban cycling to develop consensus about the nature and order of policies needed in different cycling contexts to optimise outcomes.

METHODS

We used participatory system dynamics modelling to develop causal loop diagrams (CLDs) of cycling in three contrasting contexts: Auckland, London and Nijmegen. We combined qualitative interviews and workshops to develop the CLDs. We used the three CLDs to compare and contrast influences on cycling at different points on a "cycling trajectory" and drew out policy insights.

RESULTS

The three CLDs consisted of feedback loops dynamically influencing cycling, with significant overlap between the three diagrams. Common reinforcing patterns emerged: growing numbers of people cycling lifts political will to improve the environment; cycling safety in numbers drives further growth; and more cycling can lead to normalisation across the population. By contrast, limits to growth varied as cycling increases. In Auckland and London, real and perceived danger was considered the main limit, with added barriers to normalisation in London. Cycling congestion and "market saturation" were important in the Netherlands.

CONCLUSIONS

A generalisable, dynamic causal theory for urban cycling enables a more ordered set of policy recommendations for different cities on a cycling trajectory. Participation meant the collective knowledge of cycling stakeholders was represented and triangulated with research evidence. Extending this research to further cities, especially in low-middle income countries, would enhance generalizability of the CLDs.