War, peace, and fertility in Angola

Maternal mortality in Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo: a 10-year multi-zonal institutional death review

BACKGROUND

Maternal mortality (MM) remains a real scourge that hits hardest in the poorest regions of the world, particularly those affected by conflict. However, despite this worrying reality, few studies have been conducted about MM ratio in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The study aimed to describe the trends as well as the epidemiological profile and causes of reported institutional maternal deaths between 2013 and 2022 in Eastern DRC.

METHODS

A retrospective descriptive study was conducted between March 2023 and August 2023 in eight Health Zones (HZ), five in South Kivu Province (Mwana, Minova, Miti-Murhesa, Kamituga and Idjwi) and three in North Kivu Province (Kirotshe, Karisimbi and Kayna) in the eastern region of the DRC. Our study covers 242 health facilities: 168 health centers (HC), 16 referral health centers (RHCs),50 referral hospitals (RH) and 8 general referral hospitals (GRHs). Data from registers and medical records of maternal deaths recorded in these zones from 2013-2022 were extracted along with information on the number of deliveries and live births. Sociodemographic, clinical parameters, blood and ultrasound tests and suspected causes of death between provinces were assessed.

RESULTS

In total, we obtained 177 files on deceased women. Of these, 143 (80.8%) were retained for the present study, including 75 in the 3 HZs of North Kivu and 68 in the 5 HZs of South Kivu. From 2013 to 2022, study sites experienced two significant drops in maternal mortality ratio (MMR) (in 2015 and 2018), and a spike in 2016-2017. Nonetheless, the combined MMR (across study sites) started and ended the 10-year study period at approximately the same level (53 and 57 deaths per 100,000 live births in 2013 and 2022 respectively). Overall, 62,6% of the deaths were reported from secondary hospital. Most deaths were of married women in their thirties (93.5%). Almost half (47.8%) had not completed four antenatal consultations. The main direct causes of death were, in decreasing order of frequency: post-partum haemorrhage (55.2%), uterine rupture (14.0), hypertensive disorders (8.4%), abortion (7.7%) puerperal infections (2.8%) and placental abruption (0.7%). When comparing among provinces, reported abortion-related maternal mortality (14.1% vs 0%) was more frequent in North Kivu than in South Kivu.

CONCLUSION

This study imperatively highlights the need for targeted interventions to reduce maternal mortality. By emphasizing the crucial importance of antenatal consultations, intrapartum/immediate post-partum care and quality of care, significant progress can be made in guaranteeing maternal health and reducing many avoidable deaths.

Effects of extreme climate events and child mortality on total fertility rate in Bangladesh

Floods, storms, and temperature extremes are examples of extreme weather events that have a substantial influence on a country's demographic dynamics, including migration, fertility, and mortality. Changes in population size, composition, and distribution may result from these occurrences. This study, which spans the years 1966-2018, looks at how Bangladesh's total fertility rate (TFR) is affected by extreme weather events and child mortality, including neonatal, infant, male infant, and under-five mortality. We use data from secondary publicly accessible sources, such as the World Bank and The Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT), and we investigate the correlations using the autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA), complemented by bivariate and multivariable analyses. Our findings from the univariate analysis are noteworthy. Total extreme climate events (β = -0.345, 95 % CI: 0.510, -0.180), as well as individual extreme climate events, such as extreme temperatures (β = -1.176, 95 % CI: 1.88, -0.47), floods (β = -0.644, 95 % CI: 1.0729, -0.216), and storms (β = -0.351, 95 % CI: 0.63159, -0.07154), exhibited negative associations with the TFR. Additionally, factors such as contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR) (β = -0.085, 95 % CI: 0.09072, -0.07954) and gross national income (GNI) per capita (β = -0.003, 95 % CI: 0.0041123, -0.0024234) were negatively correlated with the TFR. Conversely, various categories of child mortality, namely, infants (β = 0.041, 95 % CI: 0.040474, 0.042748), males (β = 0.038, 95 % CI:0.037719, 0.039891), and under-five (β = 0.026, 95 % CI:0.025684, 0.026979) - are positively associated with TFR. Controlling for two pivotal confounding factors, time and GNI per capita, yielded consistent results in the multivariate analysis. These findings provide insight on the dual impact of extreme weather events, which can reduce TFR while also raising it through infant mortality. This phenomena may be due to the increased vulnerability of younger children in climate-event-prone areas, prompting parents to seek additional children as both a replacement for lost offspring and an insurance mechanism against future child loss.

Fertility Intentions During the Covid-19 Pandemic: An Analysis of Individual- and Municipality-Level Determinants

Recognizing the prolonged, uneven, and evolving nature of the Covid-19 pandemic, this study provides one of the first dynamic, multilevel perspectives of women's fertility intentions in response to the pandemic and its multifaceted impacts. We examine how evolving individual- and community-level Covid-19 risk mechanisms and socioeconomic and life-course conditions are associated with continuity and change in women's fertility intentions. We combine individual-level panel data from a population-based sample of women aged 18-34 in Pernambuco, Brazil in 2020 and 2021 with corresponding administrative data from 94 municipalities. We use multinomial logit regressions to model continuity and change in fertility intentions across waves. We then estimate fixed effect models to highlight the time-varying determinants of changing fertility intentions while accounting for unobserved, time-invariant individual factors. We find that high and/or increasing individual and community-level Covid-19 exposure is associated with a greater likelihood of abandoning initial childbearing plans and a greater likelihood to maintain intentions to forego versus to intend having additional children. We advance the literature by highlighting how individual-level Covid-19 infection risk perceptions matter for fertility intentions, net of community-level exposure, and the necessity of dynamic perspectives for understanding how fertility intentions have changed (or not) in response to the pandemic.

The Dangers of Drawing Cohort Profiles From Period Data: A Research Note

Drawing cohort profiles and cohort forecasts from grids of age-period data is common practice in demography. In this research note, we (1) show how demographic measures artificially fluctuate when calculated from the diagonals of age-period rates because of timing and cohort-size bias, (2) estimate the magnitude of these biases, and (3) illustrate how prediction intervals for cohort indicators of mortality may become implausible when drawn from Lee-Carter methods and age-period grids. These biases are surprisingly large, even when the cohort profiles are created from single-age, single-year period data. The danger is that we overinterpret deviations from expected trends that were induced by our own data manipulation.

From the Ground Up: A Multidisciplinary Approach to Past Fertility and Population Narratives

Population dynamics form a crucial component of human narratives in the past. Population responses and adaptations not only tell us about the human past but also offer insights into the present and future. Though an area of substantial interest, it is also one of often limited evidence. As such, traditional techniques from demography and anthropology must be adapted considerably to accommodate the available archaeological and ethnohistoric data and an appropriate inferential framework must be applied. In this article, I propose a ground-up, multidisciplinary approach to the study of past population dynamics. Specifically, I develop an empirically informed path diagram based on modern fertility interactions and sources of past environmental, sociocultural, and biological evidence to guide high-resolution case studies. The proposed approach is dynamic and can evolve in response to data inputs as case studies are undertaken. In application, this approach will create new knowledge of past population processes which can greatly enhance our presently limited knowledge of high-frequency, small-scale demographic fluctuations, as well as contribute to our broader understanding of significant population disturbances and change throughout human history.

Traditional supports and contemporary disrupters of high fertility desires in sub-Saharan Africa: a scoping review

RATIONALE

The desired number of children is markedly higher in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) than in other major regions. Efforts to understand how and why these desires are generated and maintained have yielded a broad research literature. Yet there is no full picture of the range of contextual, cultural, and economic factors that support and disrupt high fertility desires.

OBJECTIVE

This scoping review synthesizes thirty years of research on the determinants of fertility desires in SSA to better understand what factors underlie men and women's stated fertility desires and how they weigh the costs and benefits of having (more) children.

METHOD

We identified and screened 9863 studies published from 1990 to 2021 from 18 social science, demographic, and health databases. We appraised determinants of fertility desires from 258 studies that met inclusion criteria according to their roles as traditional supports or contemporary disrupters of high fertility desires.

RESULTS

We identified 31 determinants of high fertility desires, which we organized into six overarching themes: economy and costs; marriage; the influence of others; education and status; health and mortality; and demographic predictors. For each theme, we summarize ways in which the determinants both support and disrupt high fertility desires. We find that high fertility remains desirable in many regions of sub-Saharan Africa but contemporary disrupters, such as the economic situations and increases to family planning and education, cause individuals to decrease their desired fertility with such decreases often viewed as a temporary adjustment to temporary conditions. Most included studies were quantitative, cross-sectional, and based on survey data.

CONCLUSION

This review demonstrates how traditionally supportive and contemporary disruptive forces simultaneously influence fertility desires in sub-Saharan Africa. Future studies analyzing fertility desires in sub-Saharan Africa should be informed by the lived experiences of men and women in this region, with qualitative and longitudinal studies prioritized.

Scars from a Previous Epidemic: Social Proximity to Zika and Fertility Intentions during the COVID-19 Pandemic

We examine whether women's social proximity to Zika during the Zika epidemic predicts intentions to avoid a pregnancy because of the COVID-19 pandemic either directly or indirectly via subjective assessments of the pandemic. We apply path models on unique microdata from Brazil, the country most affected by Zika and an epicenter of COVID-19, to understand whether a novel infectious disease outbreak left lasting imprints shaping fertility intentions during a subsequent novel infectious disease outbreak. Findings show that Zika social proximity is associated with fertility intentions through an indirect path related to subjective assessment of the COVID-19 pandemic. These findings emerged regardless of whether a woman herself had or suspected she had Zika and speak to the transformative consequences of novel infectious disease outbreaks that go beyond mortality and health.

Family Planning in the Sierra Leone Ebola Outbreak: Women's Proximal and Distal Reasoning

Sierra Leone was highly impacted by the 2014-2016 West Africa Ebola outbreak, with 3,955 recorded deaths. Already stressed maternal health services were deeply affected by the outbreak due to fears of viral transmission, reallocation of maternity staff, and broader policies to stop transmission including travel restrictions. This research sought to explore women's perspectives on delaying pregnancy during the Ebola outbreak using family planning methods. Qualitative data collection took place in Kambia District in 2018 and included 35 women participants, with women who were either family planning users or nonusers at the time of the outbreak. Women reported a variety of reasons for choosing to take or not to take family planning during the outbreak, which we categorized as proximal (directly related to the outbreak) or distal (not directly outbreak related). Proximal reasons to take family planning included to avoid interacting with health care spaces where Ebola could be transmitted, to avoid the economic burden of additional children in a time when economic activities were curtailed and to return to school when education resumed postoutbreak. Distal reasoning included gender roles affecting women's decision making to seek family planning, concerns related to the physiological side effects of family planning, and the economic burden of paying for family planning. Women's perspectives for choosing to take or not take family planning during the Sierra Leone Ebola crisis had not been explored prior to this paper. Using the lens of family planning to consider how women choose to access health care in an outbreak gives us a unique perspective into how all health care interactions are impacted by a generalized outbreak of Ebola, and how outbreak responses struggle to ensure such services remain a priority.

Selective mortality and fertility and long run health effects of prenatal wartime exposure

Many previous studies have shown that prenatal exposure to adverse historical circumstances negatively affects long-run health. Most women who are pregnant during wars experience clearly adverse circumstances that are however not as harsh as the typically studied extreme episodes such as famines, combat and wide-scale destruction. We show that prenatal exposure to World War II (WWII) in five Western European countries did not lead to a population-wide poorer health among the elderly. We even find indications of a better than expected health. This is likely due to selective fertility and mortality. We attempt to quantify these selection effects and show that when taking them into account, the initially positively estimated health effects on almost all outcomes are substantially attenuated. Selective mortality and fertility likely occur in similar directions for many historical episodes of adversity. Our results therefore suggest that a part of the previous research on such exposures likely under estimated the true sizes of the long-run effects.

Contraceptive choice as risk reduction? The relevance of local violence for women's uptake of sterilization in Colombia

Altered childbearing behaviour has been observed in many settings of violent conflict, but few studies have addressed fertility control. This is the first study to investigate empirically the relationship between local conflict and uptake of sterilization, the only contraceptive method that reflects a definitive stop to childbearing. The study is based on Colombia, a middle-income, low-fertility, and long-term conflict setting. It builds on a mixed methods approach, combining survey and conflict data with expert interviews. Fixed effects regressions show that local conflict is generally associated with an increased sterilization uptake. The interviews suggest that women may opt for sterilization when reversible methods become less accessible because of ongoing violence. Since sterilization is a relatively available contraceptive option in Colombia, it may represent a risk-aversion strategy for women who have completed their fertility goals. These findings can enlighten research and programmes on fertility and family planning in humanitarian contexts.

Life After Loss: A Prospective Analysis of Mortality Exposure and Unintended Fertility

The relationship between mortality and fertility is a key component of demographic transition theory, placing it at the center of extensive inquiry. Among other linkages, mortality in women's communities and social networks influences their subsequent fertility. Existing demographic research assumes this is principally due to volitional mechanisms, implying that exposure to mortality consolidates women's desire to become pregnant, leading to intended fertility. Yet, insights from other disciplines suggest that mortality exposure could also increase women's unintended fertility through psychological, relational, and behavioral mechanisms. This study examines the relationships between network mortality exposure and women's hazard of pregnancy, and of unintended pregnancy specifically. We analyze two years (2009-2011) of closely spaced panel data on young Malawian women (N=1,272) enrolled in the Tsogolo la Thanzi study. Our data include information on funeral attendance and fertility desires measured weeks before conception, which is confirmed through frequent pregnancy testing. Hazard models show that the number of funerals women attend corresponds with a higher hazard of pregnancy and of unintended pregnancy specifically. These findings make clear that mortality exposure can influence fertility not by shaping women's desires but by disrupting the realization of those desires.

Disease and fertility: Evidence from the 1918-19 influenza pandemic in Sweden

What are the consequences of a severe health shock like an influenza pandemic on fertility? Using rich administrative data and a difference-in-differences approach, we evaluate fertility responses to the 1918-19 influenza pandemic in Sweden. We find evidence of a small baby boom following the end of the pandemic, but we show that this effect is second-order compared to a strong long-term negative fertility effect. Within this net fertility decline there are compositional effects: we observe a relative increase in births to married women and to better-off families. Several factors - including disruptions to the marriage market and income effects - contribute to the long-term fertility reduction. The results are consistent with studies that find a positive fertility response following natural disasters, but we show that this effect is short-lived.

The Consequences of the Tajikistani Civil War for Abortion and Miscarriage

Although a great deal of attention is paid to reproductive health during violent conflicts, the literature is sparse on the consequences of conflict for abortion and miscarriage. This research provides an analysis of a recent historical case: the 1992-1997 civil war in Tajikistan, using the female questionnaire of the 2007 Tajik Living Standards Survey to examine a subsample of 1,445 women surveyed who had reached menarche during or after the war and had been pregnant at least once by the time of the survey. The analysis leverages the uneven geographical scope of conflict events during the civil war to pinpoint women's exposure to violence, measured by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program. The results show that for women who had reached menarche during or after the civil war, exposure to conflict events increases the likelihood of ever experiencing miscarriage, but not abortion. Including a spatial lag operator reveals that there were also spillover effects for abortion, in which women who were in a broader region of uncertainty were more likely to induce an abortion. These findings highlight the role of institutional changes in affecting pregnancy loss during and after civil war.

The Legacy of Conflict: Reconstruction and Migration in the Aftermath of Civil War in Tajikistan

How do civil war and subsequent reconstruction efforts affect international migration? Although a wealth of evidence points to violent conflict’s effects on contemporaneous migration and although a rich body of literature examines development’s effects on migration, we know less about the intersection of conflict, development, and migration. This article examines the intersection of these factors nearly a decade after the 1992–1997 civil war in Tajikistan, combining data from the 2007 Tajikistan Living Standards Survey, the Uppsala Conflict Data Program, and original interviews. In a series of logistic regression models, I show that conflict fatalities do not have a direct effect on subsequent migration, while the number of years a district has had a development resource center directly increases the likelihood of migrating. However, the interaction between development and conflict is negative and significant. These findings suggest that conflict’s legacy does not directly impact the likelihood of respondents migrating but instead changes the nature of the relationship between development and migration. This finding illuminates conflict’s potential long-term consequences for migration and extends the migration-development nexus by addressing the role of conflict in the relationship between development and migration. In particular, it suggests that migration research in conflict-affected countries should incorporate measures of both conflict and development, even after a given conflict has ended.

How Nearby Homicides Affect Young Women's Pregnancy Desires: Evidence From a Quasi-Experiment

Leveraging spatiotemporal variation in homicides that occurred during a 2.5-year weekly panel survey of 387 women ages 18-22 in Flint, Michigan, we investigate how young women's desires to become pregnant and to avoid pregnancy evolve in response to local homicides during the transition to adulthood. To address the endogeneity of exposure, we explore how the same woman's pregnancy desires (1) differed, on average, across weeks before and after the first homicide occurred within a quarter mile of her home; (2) evolved in the aftermath of this initial homicide exposure; and (3) changed in response to additional nearby homicides. One-fifth (22%) of women were exposed to a nearby homicide at least once during the study, and one-third of these women were exposed multiple times. Overall, the effects of nearby homicides were gradual: although average desires to become pregnant and to avoid pregnancy differed after initial exposure, these differences emerged approximately three to five months post-exposure. Repeated exposure to nearby homicides had nonlinear effects on how much women wanted to become pregnant and how much they wanted to avoid pregnancy. Together, our analyses provide a new explanation for why some young women-especially those who are socially disadvantaged-desire pregnancy at an early age.

Violence and precarity: A neglected cause of large family sizes in Pakistan

ABSTRACTA key objective of Pakistan's family planning program has been to increase awareness of the benefits of a small family. Despite five decades of effort, family size ideals of four children persist. Research suggests a preference for large families and many sons is driven by an economic and gender order that situates sons, and subsequent large families, as a form of financial and social capital. We argue an additional factor promoting large family size in Pakistan is precarity. Drawing upon 13 months' of ethnographic work from a village in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, our data show our respondents' preference for large families with several sons was a rational response to precarity, created by economic insecurity and persistent conflict. While child mortality has reduced, the risk of an untimely conflict-related death of adult sons remains high and continues to play a crucial role in our respondents' family size calculations. Our research contributes to the body of literature listing the forces pushing large family sizes and provides an additional explanation for Pakistan's stagnating modern contraceptive prevalence rate. It also provides policy direction for reducing Pakistan's high fertility rate, suggesting a need to address the upstream factors that contribute to the continuing need for large families.

The effects of armed conflict on the health of women and children

Women and children bear substantial morbidity and mortality as a result of armed conflicts. This Series paper focuses on the direct (due to violence) and indirect health effects of armed conflict on women and children (including adolescents) worldwide. We estimate that nearly 36 million children and 16 million women were displaced in 2017, on the basis of international databases of refugees and internally displaced populations. From geospatial analyses we estimate that the number of non-displaced women and children living dangerously close to armed conflict (within 50 km) increased from 185 million women and 250 million children in 2000, to 265 million women and 368 million children in 2017. Women's and children's mortality risk from non-violent causes increases substantially in response to nearby conflict, with more intense and more chronic conflicts leading to greater mortality increases. More than 10 million deaths in children younger than 5 years can be attributed to conflict between 1995 and 2015 globally. Women of reproductive ages living near high intensity conflicts have three times higher mortality than do women in peaceful settings. Current research provides fragmentary evidence about how armed conflict indirectly affects the survival chances of women and children through malnutrition, physical injuries, infectious diseases, poor mental health, and poor sexual and reproductive health, but major systematic evidence is sparse, hampering the design and implementation of essential interventions for mitigating the harms of armed conflicts.

How Assad changed population growth in Sweden and Norway: Syrian refugees' impact on Nordic national and municipal demography

In an increasingly interconnected world, the demographic effects of wars are not confined only to war zones and neighbouring areas; wars and conflicts may also change populations far away. Without the war in Syria under President Assad and the associated mass exodus of Syrian refugees, the population trends in distant countries like Sweden and Norway over the last few years would have been different. We create hypothetical scenarios of the population developments in Sweden and Norway without a war in Syria from 2011 onwards, where excess immigration due to the war and associated excess births are removed. The results indicate that population growth in 2016 would have been roughly 36% lower in Sweden and 26% lower in Norway without the Syrian war. The number of births in 2017 would have been about 3% lower in Sweden and 1% lower in Norway. One in ten municipalities would have had a population decline in 2016 instead of a population increase, and the largest immigrant group in Sweden by January 2019 would still be of Finnish origin.

Exposure to Armed Conflict and Fertility in Sub-Saharan Africa

Changes in fertility patterns are hypothesized to be among the many second-order consequences of armed conflict, but expectations about the direction of such effects are theoretically ambiguous. Prior research, from a range of contexts, has also yielded inconsistent results. We contribute to this debate by using harmonized data and methods to examine the effects of exposure to conflict on preferred and observed fertility outcomes across a spatially and temporally extensive population. We use high-resolution georeferenced data from 25 sub-Saharan African countries, combining records of violent events from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED) with data on fertility goals and outcomes from the Demographic and Health Surveys (n = 368,765 women aged 15-49 years). We estimate a series of linear and logistic regression models to assess the effects of exposure to conflict events on ideal family size and the probability of childbearing within the 12 months prior to the interview. We find that, on average, exposure to armed conflict leads to modest reductions in both respondents' preferred family size and their probability of recent childbearing. Many of these effects are heterogeneous between demographic groups and across contexts, which suggests systematic differences in women's vulnerability or preferred responses to armed conflict. Additional analyses suggest that conflict-related fertility declines may be driven by delays or reductions in marriage. These results contribute new evidence about the demographic effects of conflict and their underlying mechanisms, and broadly underline the importance of studying the second-order effects of organized violence on vulnerable populations.

Investigating the Relationship between Food Insecurity and Fertility Preferences in Tanzania

OBJECTIVE

We analyze fertility preferences among women at risk of pregnancy with children ages five or younger as a function of two food security metrics: perceptions of household hunger and child stunting (height for age z scores ≤ -2.0) in order to convey a robust picture of food insecurity.

METHODS

We use data from the 2016 Tanzania Demographic and Health Surveys to analyze this research question. Multinomial generalized logit models with cluster-adjusted standard errors are used to determine the association between different dimensions of food insecurity and individual-level fertility preferences.

RESULTS

On average, women who experience household hunger are 19% less likely to want more children compared to women who do not experience household hunger (AOR: 0.81, p = 0.02) when controlling for education, residence, maternal age, number of living children, and survey month. Adjusting for the same covariates, having at least one child ≤ 5 years old who is stunted is associated with 13% reduced odds of wanting more children compared to having no children stunted (AOR: 0.87, p = 0.06).

CONCLUSIONS FOR PRACTICE

In the context of a divided literature base, this research aligns with the previous work identifying a preference among women to delay or avoid pregnancy during times of food insecurity. The similarity in magnitude and direction of the association between food insecurity and fertility preferences across the two measures of food insecurity suggest a potential association between lived or perceived resource insecurity and fertility aspirations. Further research is needed in order to establish a mechanism through which food insecurity affects fertility preferences.

SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT

Individual fertility preferences are sensitive to dynamic multi-level factors in a woman's life. While qualitative research has explored the effect that food insecurity and associated resource constraints have on fertility preferences, results are conflicting. Here, we quantitatively examine how individual woman's fertility preferences associate with two measures of food insecurity and qualitatively compare the associations across food insecurity measures. We establish that two food insecurity measures- household hunger and child stunting- capture similar populations and have similar associations with fertility preferences. This is a critical step forward in understanding the dynamic relationship between resource availability, child well-being, and fertility preferences.

Brazil's Missing Infants: Zika Risk Changes Reproductive Behavior

Zika virus epidemics have potential large-scale population effects. Controlled studies of mice and nonhuman primates indicate that Zika affects fecundity, raising concerns about miscarriage in human populations. In regions of Brazil, Zika risk peaked months before residents learned about the epidemic and its relation to congenital anomalies. This spatiotemporal variation supports analysis of both biological effects of Zika infection on fertility and the effects of learning about Zika risk on reproductive behavior. Causal inference techniques used with vital statistics indicate that the epidemic caused reductions in birth cohort size of approximately one-quarter 18 months after Zika infection risk peaked but 10 months after public health messages advocated childbearing delay. The evidence is consistent with small but not statistically detectable biological reductions in fecundity, as well as large strategic changes in reproductive behavior to temporally align childbearing with reduced risk to infant health. The behavioral effects are larger for more-educated and older women, which may reflect facilitated access to information and to family planning services within high-risk, mosquito-infested urban locations as well as perceptions about the opportunity costs of risks to pregnancy and infant survival.

Live Births and Fertility Amid the Zika Epidemic in Brazil

In late 2015, the Brazilian Ministry of Health and the Pan American Health Organization classified the increase in congenital malformations associated with the Zika virus (ZIKV) as a public health emergency. The risk of ZIKV-related congenital syndrome poses a threat to reproductive outcomes that could result in declining numbers of live births and potentially fertility. Using monthly microdata on live births from the Brazilian Information System on Live Births (SINASC), this study examines live births and fertility trends amid the ZIKV epidemic in Brazil. Findings suggest a decline in live births that is stratified across educational and geographic lines, beginning approximately nine months after the link between ZIKV and microcephaly was publicly announced. Although declines in total fertility rates were small, fertility trends estimated by age and maternal education suggest important differences in how Zika might have impacted Brazil's fertility structure. Further findings confirm the significant declines in live births in mid-2016 even when characteristics of the municipality are controlled for; these results highlight important nuances in the timing and magnitude of the decline. Combined, our findings illustrate the value of understanding how the risk of a health threat directed at fetuses has led to declines in live births and fertility.

The Effects of Conflict on Fertility: Evidence From the Genocide in Rwanda

Our study analyzes the fertility effects of the 1994 genocide in Rwanda. We study the effects of violence on both the duration time to the first birth in the early post-genocide period and on the total number of post-genocide births per woman up to 15 years following the conflict. We use individual-level data from Demographic and Health Surveys, estimating survival and count data models. This article contributes to the literature on the demographic effects of violent conflict by testing two channels through which conflict influences fertility: (1) the type of violence exposure as measured by the death of a child or sibling, and (2) the conflict-induced change in local demographic conditions as captured by the change in the district-level sex ratio. Results indicate the genocide had heterogeneous effects on fertility, depending on the type of violence experienced by the woman, her age cohort, parity, and the time horizon (5, 10, and 15 years after the genocide). There is strong evidence of a child replacement effect. Having experienced the death of a child during the genocide increases both the hazard of having a child in the five years following the genocide and the total number of post-genocide births. Experiencing sibling death during the genocide significantly lowers post-genocide fertility in both the short-run and the long-run. Finally, a reduction in the local sex ratio negatively impacts the hazard of having a child in the five years following the genocide, especially for older women.

Women and children living in areas of armed conflict in Africa: a geospatial analysis of mortality and orphanhood

Background

The population effects of armed conflict on non-combatant vulnerable populations are incompletely understood. We aimed to study the effects of conflict on mortality among women of childbearing age (15–49 years) and on orphanhood among children younger than 15 years in Africa.

Methods

We tested the extent to which mortality among women aged 15–49 years, and orphanhood among children younger than 15 years, increased in response to nearby armed conflict in Africa. Data on location, timing, and intensity of armed conflicts were obtained from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program, and data on the location, timing, and outcomes of women and children from Demographic and Health Surveys done in 35 African countries from 1990 to 2016. Mortality among women was obtained from sibling survival data. We used cluster-area fixed-effects regression models to compare survival of women during periods of nearby conflict (within 50 km) to survival of women in the same area during times without conflict. We used similar methods to examine the extent to which children living near armed conflicts are at increased risk of becoming orphans. We examined the effects of varying conflict intensity using number of direct battle deaths and duration of consecutive conflict exposure.

Findings

We analysed data on 1 629 352 women (19 286 387 person-years), of which 103 011 (6·3%) died (534·1 deaths per 100 000 women-years), and 2 354 041 children younger than 15 years, of which 204 276 (8·7%) had lost a parent. On average, conflict within 50 km increased women's mortality by 112 deaths per 100 000 person-years (95% CI 97–128; a 21% increase above baseline), and the probability that a child has lost at least one parent by 6·0% (95% CI 3–8). This effect was driven by high-intensity conflicts: exposure to the highest (tenth) decile conflict in terms of conflict-related deaths increased the probability of female mortality by 202% (187–218) and increased the likelihood of orphanhood by 42% compared with a conflict-free period. Among the conflict-attributed deaths, 10% were due to maternal mortality.

Interpretation

African women of childbearing age are at a substantially increased risk of death from nearby high-intensity armed conflicts. Children exposed to conflict are analogously at increased risk of becoming orphans. This work fills gaps in literature on the harmful effects of armed conflict on non-combatants and highlights the need for humanitarian interventions to protect vulnerable populations.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation to the BRANCH Consortium.

Spacing, Stopping, or Postponing? Fertility Desires in a Sub-Saharan Setting

A growing body of research has argued that the traditional categories of stopping and spacing are insufficient to understand why individuals want to control fertility. In a series of articles, Timæus, Moultrie, and colleagues defined a third type of fertility motivation-postponement-that reflects a desire to avoid childbearing in the short term without clear goals for long-term fertility. Although postponement is fundamentally a description of fertility desires, existing quantitative research has primarily studied fertility behavior in an effort to find evidence for the model. In this study, we use longitudinal survey data to consider whether postponement can be identified in standard measures of fertility desires among reproductive-age women in rural Mozambique. Findings show strong evidence for a postponement mindset in this population, but postponement coexists with stopping and spacing goals. We reflect on the difference between birth spacing and postponement and consider whether and how postponement is a distinctive sub-Saharan phenomenon.

Organized Violence and Institutional Child Delivery: Micro-Level Evidence From Sub-Saharan Africa, 1989-2014

The conditions under which a mother gives birth greatly affect the health risk of both the mother and the child. This article addresses how local exposure to organized violence affects whether women give birth in a health facility. We combine geocoded data on violent events from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program with georeferenced survey data on the use of maternal health care services from the Demographic and Health Surveys. Our sample covers 569,201 births by 390,574 mothers in 31 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. We use a mother fixed-effects analysis to estimate the effect of recent organized violence events within a radius of 50 km of the home of each mother on the likelihood that her child is born in a health facility. The results indicate that geographical and temporal proximity to organized violence significantly reduces the likelihood of institutional births. Although the level of maternal health care overall is lower in rural areas, the negative effect of violence appears to be stronger in urban areas. The study further underscores the importance of household and individual resilience, indicating that the effect of organized violence on institutional child delivery is greater among poor and less-educated mothers.

Fear of violence during armed conflict: Social roles and responsibilities as determinants of fear

This article investigates the prevalence and determinants of fear as a consequence of living through armed conflict. We use survey data from Nepal during the armed conflict (1996-2006) to examine how trauma, sex and gender, age, marriage, and household size affect fear of violence. We also disaggregate types of worry, and find substantial variance on whether respondents were more concerned about livelihood consequences of conflict than physical danger. We supplement quantitative analyses with discussion of in-depth interviews from the study area on these same topics. Overall, our results highlight the enduring impact of gender roles in Nepal and that conflict might disproportionately affect those who are already vulnerable and have greater social responsibilities. This article provides a unique comparison between fear of violence during armed conflict in a low-income country to the fear of crime literature based in high-income countries.

Death Is Not the End: A Register-Based Study of the Effect of Parental Death on Adult Children's Childbearing Behavior in Sweden

Macro-level studies have shown that rapid increases in mortality can affect fertility rates. Parental death has also been linked to negative psychological and physical outcomes, reduced relationship quality, and making bereaved children attach more importance to their families. No prior study has examined whether parental death influences adult children's fertility at the microlevel. This study applies event history techniques to Swedish multigeneration registers listing 1.5 million individuals with micro data on mortality and fertility to investigate short-term (first birth risk) and long-term (childlessness at age 45) effects of parental death on adult children's fertility. The principal finding is that parental death during reproductive age affects children's fertility and this effect is mainly short term. The effects differ to some degree between men and women and depend on the stage of the life course in which the bereavement occurs. Younger individuals experiencing a parental death have a significantly higher first birth risk after the parental death compared with peers who did not experience a parental death. Individuals older than 23 who experience a parental death have no or lower first birth risk after the parental death compared with baseline. Men, compared with women, are more likely to end childless if they experience a parental death.

"Before the war we had it all": Family planning among couples in a post-conflict setting

There is little evidence about family planning knowledge, attitudes, and use among couples in post-conflict Democratic Republic of the Congo. We used qualitative descriptions to analyze data from 75 participants. Intimate partner violence (IPV) was common among participants. They were aware of family planning methods; however, IPV and fears of side effects were barriers to use. Although participants were concerned about the cost of large families, had positive attitudes toward family planning, and intended to use it, actual use was uncommon. The need for family planning was acute because of war-related poverty. Couples negotiated, but men had strong influence over family planning decisions. Couples saw health workers as a valuable resource. Interventions in this setting should include a couple-based approach that addresses IPV as well as family planning content.

Fertility after natural disaster: Hurricane Mitch in Nicaragua

This investigation evaluates the effect of Hurricane Mitch on women's reproductive outcomes throughout Nicaragua. This research aim is achieved by analyzing a unique Nicaraguan Living Standards Measurement Study panel dataset that tracks women's fertility immediately before and at two time points after Hurricane Mitch, combined with satellite-derived municipality-level precipitation data for the 10-day storm period. Results show higher odds of post-disaster fertility in municipalities receiving higher precipitation levels in the immediate post-Hurricane Mitch period. However, fertility normalizes between disaster and non-disaster areas four to six years after the storm. These findings suggest that the disruptive effects of a natural disaster such as Hurricane Mitch can have an initial stimulative effect on fertility but the effect is ephemeral.

The effect of war on infant mortality in the Democratic Republic of Congo

Background

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has suffered from war and lingering conflicts in East DRC and has one of the highest infant mortality rates in the world. Prior research has documented increases in infant and child mortality associated with war, but the empirical evidence is limited in several respects. Measures of conflict are quite crude or conflict is not tightly linked to periods of exposure to infant death. Few studies have distinguished between the effects of war on neonatal versus post-neonatal infants. No study has considered possible differences between women who give birth during wartime and those who do not that may be related to greater infant mortality.

Methods

The analysis used the nationally representative sample of 15,103 mothers and 53,768 children from the 2007 and 2013/2014 Demographic Health Survey in the DRC and indicators of conflict events and conflict deaths from the 2013 Uppsala Conflict Data. To account for unobserved heterogeneity across women, a multi-level modeling approach was followed by grouping all births for each woman and estimating random intercepts in discrete time event history models.

Results

Post-neonatal mortality increased during the Congolese wars, and was highest where conflict events and deaths were extreme. Neonatal mortality was not associated with conflict levels. Infant mortality was not higher in East DRC, where conflicts continued during the post Congolese war period. Models specifying unobserved differences between mothers who give birth during war and those who have children in peacetime did not reduce the estimated effect of war, i.e., no support was found for selectivity in the sample of births during war.

Conclusion

Differences in effects of the Congolese war on neonatal versus post-neonatal mortality suggest that conflict influences the conditions of infants’ lives more than the aspects of mothers’ pregnancy conditions and delivery that are relevant for infant mortality. These differences may, however, be specific to the nature of conflict and prior conditions in the DRC. Because of continued political instability, violent conflict may be expected to continue in contexts such as the DRC; we must therefore continue to document, analyze and monitor the mechanisms through which war influences infant mortality.

The impact of armed conflict on adolescent transitions: a systematic review of quantitative research on age of sexual debut, first marriage and first birth in young women under the age of 20 years

Background

Young women in conflict-affected regions are at risk of a number of adverse outcomes as a result of violence, economic deterioration and the breakdown of community structures and services. This paper presents the findings of a systematic review of quantitative literature reporting how key sexual and reproductive health (SRH) outcomes among young women under the age of 20 years are affected by exposure to armed conflict; namely, sexual debut, first marriage and first birth. Increases in these outcomes among young women are all associated with potential negative public health consequences. It also examines and documents possible causal pathways for any changes seen.

Methods

To fit with our inclusion criteria, all reviewed studies included outcomes for comparable populations not exposed to conflict either temporally or spatially. A total of 19 studies with results from 21 countries or territories met our inclusion criteria; seven presented findings on marriage, four on fertility and eight on both of these outcomes. Only one study reporting on sexual debut met our criteria.

Results

Findings show clear evidence of both declines and increases in marriage and childbirth among young women in a range of conflict-affected settings. Several studies that showed increases in marriage below the age of 20 years reported that such increases were concentrated in the younger teenagers. Trends in fertility were predominantly driven by marriage patterns. Suggested causal pathways for the changes observed could be grouped into three categories: involuntary, gender and psycho-social and economic and material factors.

Conclusion

The review reveals a paucity of literature on the impact of conflict on SRH outcomes of young women. Further quantitative and qualitative studies are needed to explore how conflict influences SRH events in young women over both the short- and longer-term.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12889-016-2868-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Varying family planning strategies across age categories: differences in factors associated with current modern contraceptive use among youth and adult women in Luanda, Angola

Background

The objective of this study is to identify factors associated with current modern contraceptive use among Angolan women. By differentiating according to age groups (15–24 and 25–49 years), this study aimed to help family planning program planners better tailor interventions to improve utilization of modern contraception.

Methods

A household survey was used to collect data from 1,545 women of reproductive age living in Luanda Province, Angola. Data on sociodemographic characteristics, reproductive behavior and intentions, contraceptive knowledge and use, and attitudes and beliefs regarding contraception and abortion were collected. The analyses were stratified based on age: 15–24 years (youth) and 25–49 years (adult). Multivariate logistic regression models were built for each age group, adding different subsets of variables in groups to see how relationships changed across the models.

Results

Common factors associated with modern contraceptive use among all ages include education level, perceived contraceptive accessibility, contraceptive knowledge, communication with partner about family planning in last year, and self-efficacy. Exposure to family planning information in the media in the last few months, perceived partner approval of family planning, and marital status were all positively associated with current modern contraceptive use among women aged 15–24 years. Meanwhile, receiving information about family planning from a pharmacy in the last year was uniquely associated with current modern contraceptive use among women aged 25–49 years.

Conclusion

Young women in Luanda, Angola seem to have a unique set of factors affecting their contraceptive use. These findings highlight the need for family planning programs to cater services and messages toward specific age groups.

Estimating Post-Emergency Fertility Among Disaster-Affected Adolescents: Findings From a Case-Control Study in Aceh Province, Indonesia

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to retrospectively estimate adolescent fertility rates before and after a large-scale natural disaster.

METHODS

A case-control study was conducted in Aceh Province, Indonesia, 2 years after the Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004. The age-specific fertility rates of 15-19-year-old-women (ASFR 15-19) was estimated each year from 2004 to 2006 by creating hypothetical age cohorts. The results were compared with data from the closest edition of the Indonesian Demographic Health Survey (IDHS).

RESULTS

The pre-disaster ASFR 15-19 (4.4% in 2004) was not significantly different from the 2002-2003 IDHS data (P=0.49), whereas the post-disaster ASFR 15-19 (1.1% in 2005-2006) was significantly lower than the provincial estimation in the 2007 IDHS (P<0.01). ASFR 15-19 was reduced by 76% in the post-disaster period compared with the pre-disaster period (rate ratio: 0.24, P=0.02).

CONCLUSIONS

The creation of hypothetical age cohorts enabled valid and useful estimation of the ASFR in disaster-affected areas where reliable vital statistics are not available. For pre-disaster fertility estimation, however, we suggest excluding data from the 40-week period preceding the disaster, because the data may be biased by excess mortality in childbearing mothers and newborn babies in the disaster.

Immigrant–native fertility differentials: The Afghans in Iran

International migration is increasingly important in shaping national population dynamics, both directly through adding or subtracting people, and indirectly, through the fertility of immigrants. International migrants rarely share the fertility characteristics of either origin or destination populations. However, the relationship between migration and fertility is little understood, especially that relating to refugee populations. This study examined the fertility differentials of one of the world’s largest refugee populations, the Afghans in Iran, in relation to the host population. Based on multivariate analysis, the study demonstrated that Afghan immigrants were moving from a high fertility regime to a low fertility regime. The findings suggest that fertility change among Afghans is associated with their adaptation to Iranian society. The role of education in mediating immigrant–native fertility differentials was also uncovered.

The effects of mortality on fertility: population dynamics after a natural disaster

Understanding how mortality and fertility are linked is essential to the study of population dynamics. We investigate the fertility response to an unanticipated mortality shock that resulted from the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, which killed large shares of the residents of some Indonesian communities but caused no deaths in neighboring communities. Using population-representative multilevel longitudinal data, we identify a behavioral fertility response to mortality exposure, both at the level of a couple and in the broader community. We observe a sustained fertility increase at the aggregate level following the tsunami, which was driven by two behavioral responses to mortality exposure. First, mothers who lost one or more children in the disaster were significantly more likely to bear additional children after the tsunami. This response explains about 13 % of the aggregate increase in fertility. Second, women without children before the tsunami initiated family-building earlier in communities where tsunami-related mortality rates were higher, indicating that the fertility of these women is an important route to rebuilding the population in the aftermath of a mortality shock. Such community-level effects have received little attention in demographic scholarship.

Civil conflict, gender-specific fetal loss, and selection: a new test of the Trivers-Willard hypothesis

A sizeable economics literature explores the effect of prenatal shocks on later health or socioeconomic status. Work in other disciplines, following the seminal contribution of Trivers and Willard (1973), suggests that prenatal shocks may increase fetal loss and reduce the number of boys relative to girls at birth. This has been largely ignored in the economics literature and could affect the interpretation of estimates of the effect of prenatal shocks and that of gender in other applied economics contexts. This paper analyzes the effect of in utero exposure to a shock - civil conflict in Nepal - on (i) fetal loss, and (ii) gender and (iii) health at birth. Maternal fixed effects estimates show that exposed pregnancies are more likely to result in a miscarriage and in a female birth, but exposed newborns are neither smaller nor more subject to neonatal mortality.

The Effect on Fertility of the 2003-2011 War in Iraq

This article provides the first detailed account of recent fertility trends in Iraq, with a particular focus on the changes resulting from the 2003-2011 war and the factors underlying them. The study is based on retrospective birth history data from the 2006 and 2011 Iraq Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (I-MICS). Estimates from the two surveys indicate that total fertility remained stable from 1997 to 2010, at about 4.5 children per woman. However, examination of the age patterns of fertility reveals an abrupt shift in the timing of births, with adolescent fertility rising by over 30 percent soon after the onset of the war. A decomposition analysis shows that the rise in early childbearing is due to an increased prevalence of early marriage among less-educated women. The prevalence of early marriage and childbearing among women with secondary or higher education is relatively low and has not increased after 2003.

How community organizations moderate the effect of armed conflict on migration in Nepal

This study analyses micro-level variability in migration during armed conflict in Nepal. The analysis is based on a multi-dimensional model of individual out-migration that examines the economic, social, and political consequences of conflict and how community organizations condition the experience of these consequences and systematically alter migration patterns. Detailed data on violent events and individual behaviour during the Maoist insurrection in Nepal and multi-level event-history analysis were used to test the model. The results indicate that community organizations reduced the effect of conflict on out-migration by providing resources that helped people cope with danger, as well as with the economic, social, and political consequences of the conflict. The evidence suggests that the conflict caused the population to be systematically redistributed in a way that will probably affect its future socio-demographic composition--the extent of the redistribution depending on the resources available in each community.

Availability of long-acting and permanent family-planning methods leads to increase in use in conflict-affected northern Uganda: evidence from cross-sectional baseline and endline cluster surveys

Humanitarian assistance standards require specific attention to address the reproductive health (RH) needs of conflict-affected populations. Despite these internationally recognised standards, access to RH services is still often compromised in war. We assessed the effectiveness of our programme in northern Uganda to provide family planning (FP) services through mobile outreach and public health centre strengthening. Baseline (n=905) and endline (n=873) cross-sectional surveys using a multistage cluster sampling design were conducted in the catchment areas of four public health centres in 2007 and 2010. Current use of any modern FP method increased from 7.1% to 22.6% (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 3.34 [95% confidence interval (CI) 2.27-4.92]); current use of long-acting and permanent methods increased from 1.2% to 9.8% (adjusted OR 9.45 [95%CI 3.99-22.39]). The proportion of women with unmet need for FP decreased from 52.1% to 35.7%. This study demonstrates that when comprehensive FP services are provided among conflict-affected populations, women will choose to use them. The combination of mobile teams and health systems strengthening can make a full range of methods quickly available while supporting the health system to continue to provide those services in challenging and resource-constrained settings.

A micro-level event-centered approach to investigating armed conflict and population responses

In this article, we construct and test a micro-level event-centered approach to the study of armed conflict and behavioral responses in the general population. Event-centered approaches have been successfully used in the macro-political study of armed conflict but have not yet been adopted in micro-behavioral studies. The micro-level event-centered approach that we advocate here includes decomposition of a conflict into discrete political and violent events, examination of the mechanisms through which they affect behavior, and consideration of differential risks within the population. We focus on two mechanisms: instability and threat of harm. We test this approach empirically in the context of the recent decade-long armed conflict in Nepal, using detailed measurements of conflict-related events and a longitudinal study of first migration, first marriage, and first contraceptive use. Results demonstrate that different conflict-related events independently shaped migration, marriage, and childbearing and that they can simultaneously influence behaviors in opposing directions. We find that violent events increased migration, but political events slowed migration. Both violent and political events increased marriage and contraceptive use net of migration. Overall, this micro-level event-centered approach yields a significant advance for the study of how armed conflict affects civilian behavioral responses.

The changing sex ratios at birth during the civil war in Tajikistan: 1992-1997

Sex ratios at birth are known to change during wars or shortly after. This study investigated changes in sex ratios during the civil war that occurred in Tajikistan after the dismantling of the Soviet Union. This civil war was particularly bloody and long lasting, and had many demographic consequences. According to vital registration data, some 27,000 persons died in excess of previous trends during the civil war period (1992-1997), and total mortality was sometimes estimated to be three times higher by independent observers. Birth rates dropped markedly during the war, and sex ratios at birth increased significantly from 104.6 before the war to 106.9 during the war, to return to baseline values afterwards. The change in sex ratio is investigated according to demographic evidence (migration, delayed marriage, spouse separation), substantiated with qualitative evidence (difficulties with food supply), and compared with patterns found in Europe during World War II, as well as with recent wars in the Middle East.

Instability, investment, disasters, and demography: natural disasters and fertility in Italy (1820-1962) and Japan (1671-1965)

This article examines whether natural disasters affect fertility-a topic little explored but of policy importance given relevance to policies regarding disaster insurance, foreign aid, and the environment. The identification strategy uses historic regional data to exploit natural variation within each of two countries: one European country-Italy (1820-1962), and one Asian country-Japan (1671-1965). The choice of study settings allows consideration of Jones' (The European miracle, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1981) theory that preindustrial differences in income and population between Asia and Europe resulted from the fertility response to different environmental risk profiles. According to the results, short-run instability, particularly that arising from the natural environment, appears to be associated with a decrease in fertility-thereby suggesting that environmental shocks and economic volatility are associated with a decrease in investment in the population size of future generations. The results also show that, contrary to Jones' (The European miracle, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1981) theory, differences in fertility between Italy and Japan cannot be explained away by disaster proneness alone. Research on the effects of natural disasters may enable social scientists and environmentalists alike to better predict the potential effects of the increase in natural disasters that may result from global climate change.