Determining the stability of genome-wide factors in BMI between ages 40 to 69 years

Genetically Predicted Body Mass Index and Mortality in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

Rationale: Body mass index (BMI) is associated with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) mortality, but the underlying mechanisms are unclear. The effect of genetic variants aggregated into a polygenic score may elucidate the causal mechanisms and predict risk. Objectives: To examine the associations of genetically predicted BMI with all-cause and cause-specific mortality in COPD. Methods: We developed a polygenic score (PGS) for BMI (PGSBMI) and tested for associations of the PGSBMI with all-cause, respiratory, and cardiovascular mortality in participants with COPD from the COPDGene (Genetic Epidemiology of COPD), ECLIPSE (Evaluation of COPD Longitudinally to Identify Predictive Surrogate End-points), and Framingham Heart studies. We calculated the difference between measured BMI and PGS-predicted BMI (BMIdiff) and categorized participants into groups of discordantly low (BMIdiff <20th percentile), concordant (BMIdiff between the 20th and 80th percentiles), and discordantly high (BMIdiff >80th percentile) BMI. We applied Cox models, examined potential nonlinear associations of the PGSBMI and BMIdiff with mortality, and summarized results with meta-analysis. Measurements and Main Results: We observed significant nonlinear associations of measured BMI and BMIdiff, but not PGSBMI, with all-cause mortality. In meta-analyses, a one-standard deviation increase in the PGSBMI was associated with an increased hazard for cardiovascular mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 1.29; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.12-1.49), but not for respiratory or all-cause mortality. Compared with participants with concordant measured and genetically predicted BMI, those with discordantly low BMI had higher risks for all-cause mortality (HR, 1.57; 95% CI, 1.41-1.74) and respiratory death (HR, 2.01; 95% CI, 1.61-2.51). Conclusions: In people with COPD, a higher genetically predicted BMI is associated with higher cardiovascular mortality but not respiratory mortality. Individuals with a discordantly low BMI have higher all-cause and respiratory mortality rates than those with a concordant BMI.

Characterising the genetic architecture of changes in adiposity during adulthood using electronic health records

Obesity is a heritable disease, characterised by excess adiposity that is measured by body mass index (BMI). While over 1,000 genetic loci are associated with BMI, less is known about the genetic contribution to adiposity trajectories over adulthood. We derive adiposity-change phenotypes from 24.5 million primary-care health records in over 740,000 individuals in the UK Biobank, Million Veteran Program USA, and Estonian Biobank, to discover and validate the genetic architecture of adiposity trajectories. Using multiple BMI measurements over time increases power to identify genetic factors affecting baseline BMI by 14%. In the largest reported genome-wide study of adiposity-change in adulthood, we identify novel associations with BMI-change at six independent loci, including rs429358 (APOE missense variant). The SNP-based heritability of BMI-change (1.98%) is 9-fold lower than that of BMI. The modest genetic correlation between BMI-change and BMI (45.2%) indicates that genetic studies of longitudinal trajectories could uncover novel biology of quantitative traits in adulthood.

A Developmentally-Informative Genome-wide Association Study of Alcohol Use Frequency

Contemporary genome-wide association study (GWAS) methods typically do not account for variability in genetic effects throughout development. We applied genomic structural equation modeling to combine developmentally-informative phenotype data and GWAS to create polygenic scores (PGS) for alcohol use frequency that are specific to developmental stage. Longitudinal cohort studies targeted for gene-identification analyses include the Collaborative Study on the Genetics of Alcoholism (adolescence n = 1,118, early adulthood n = 2,762, adulthood n = 5,255), the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health (adolescence n = 3,089, early adulthood n = 3,993, adulthood n = 5,149), and the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC; adolescence n = 5,382, early adulthood n = 3,613). PGS validation analyses were conducted in the COGA sample using an alternate version of the discovery analysis with COGA removed. Results suggest that genetic liability for alcohol use frequency in adolescence may be distinct from genetic liability for alcohol use frequency later in developmental periods. The age-specific PGS predicts an increase of 4 drinking days per year per PGS standard deviation when modeled separately from the common factor PGS in adulthood. The current work was underpowered at all steps of the analysis plan. Though small sample sizes and low statistical power limit the substantive conclusions that can be drawn regarding these research questions, this work provides a foundation for future genetic studies of developmental variability in the genetic underpinnings of alcohol use behaviors and genetically-informed, age-matched phenotype prediction.

Improving the discovery of rare variants associated with alcohol problems by leveraging machine learning phenotype prediction and functional information

Alcohol use disorder (AUD) is moderately heritable with significant social and economic impact. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified common variants associated with AUD, however, rare variant investigations have yet to achieve well-powered sample sizes. In this study, we conducted an interval-based exome-wide analysis of the Alcohol Use Disorder Identification Test Problems subscale (AUDIT-P) using both machine learning (ML) predicted risk and empirical functional weights. This research has been conducted using the UK Biobank Resource (application number 30782.) Filtering the 200k exome release to unrelated individuals of European ancestry resulted in a sample of 147,386 individuals with 51,357 observed and 96,029 unmeasured but predicted AUDIT-P for exome analysis. Sequence Kernel Association Test (SKAT/SKAT-O) was used for rare variant (Minor Allele Frequency (MAF) < 0.01) interval analyses using default and empirical weights. Empirical weights were constructed using annotations found significant by stratified LD Score Regression analysis of predicted AUDIT-P GWAS, providing prior functional weights specific to AUDIT-P. Using only samples with observed AUDIT-P yielded no significantly associated intervals. In contrast, ADH1C and THRA gene intervals were significant (False discovery rate (FDR) <0.05) using default and empirical weights in the predicted AUDIT-P sample, with the most significant association found using predicted AUDIT-P and empirical weights in the ADH1C gene (SKAT-O P Default = 1.06 x 10 -9 and P Empirical weight = 6.25 x 10 -11 ). These findings provide evidence for rare variant association of the ADH1C gene with the AUDIT-P and highlight the successful leveraging of ML to increase effective sample size and prior empirical functional weights based on common variant GWAS data to refine and increase the statistical significance in underpowered phenotypes.