Projected impact of a reduction in sugar-sweetened beverage consumption on diabetes and cardiovascular disease in Argentina: A modeling study

Modeling the potential impact of a sugar-sweetened beverage tax on ischemic heart disease and stroke in Brazil

BACKGROUND

A high intake of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) is associated with the risk of several chronic diseases, including ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke. This study aimed to model the impact of a 20% tax on all SSBs for IHD and stroke among Brazilian adults.

METHODS

This was an ex-ante risk comparative study. The model applied a 20% tax on SSBs and projected the incidence, prevalence and mortality of IHD and stroke over a 20-year period (2019-39). Using data on consumption, previously published cross- and own-price elasticities of SSBs, and relative risk, we estimated changes in IHD and stroke burden.

RESULTS

Our model predicts that a 20% SSB tax may reduce new cases of IHD by ~13%, especially among women, and avert ~8% of the deaths attributable to IHD over 20 years. These results represent a decrease of 19 543 new cases and 8466 and 7274 fewer deaths in the period for men and women, respectively. Estimates of reduction in incidence, prevalence and deaths from stroke were not significant over 20 years.

CONCLUSIONS

Even under conservative assumptions, our study found that a small reduction in SSB consumption led to a substantial decrease in IHD incidence and mortality in Brazil.

The global burden of cardiovascular disease attributable to diet high in sugar-sweetened beverages among people aged 60 years and older: an analysis for the global burden of disease study 2019

Objectives

This study aimed to quantify the global cardiovascular disease (CVD) burden attributable to diet high in sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB) among adults aged 60 years and older using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019.

Methods

We extracted data on CVD mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and risk-factor exposures from the GBD 2019 study for people aged 60 and older. Age-period-cohort models were used to estimate the overall annual percentage change in mortality and DALY rate (net drift, % per year), mortality and DALY rate for each age group from 1990 to 2019 (local drift, % per year), longitudinal age-specific rate corrected for period bias (age effect), and mortality and Daly rate for each age group from 1990 to 2019 (local drift, % per year). And period/cohort relative risk (period/cohort effect).

Results

Between 1990 and 2019, global age-standardized CVD mortality (ASMR) and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) rates attributable to high SSB intake decreased, with larger reductions in high-SDI regions. ASMR declined from 19.5 to 13 per 100,000 (estimated annual percentage change (EAPC): -1.46%) and ASDR declined from 345.8 to 220.6 per 100,000 (EAPC: -1.66%). Age-period-cohort analysis showed CVD deaths and DALYs increased exponentially with age, peaking at 85-89 years. Period effects indicated declining CVD mortality and DALY rates since 1999, especially in higher-SDI regions. Cohort effects demonstrated consistent risk declines across successive generations born between 1900 and 1959. Predictions suggest continuing decreases through 2045 globally, but slower declines in lower-SDI regions.

Conclusion

In conclusion, this comprehensive assessment of global CVD burden among older adults attributable to high SSB intake highlights major achievements but also persistent areas needing attention. Favorable declining mortality and DALY rate trends reflect substantial progress in CVD control amid population growth and aging.

The potential impact of policies and structural interventions in reducing cardiovascular disease and mortality: a systematic review of simulation-based studies

Background

The aim of the study was to investigate the potential effect of different structural interventions for preventing cardiovascular disease.

Methods

Medline and EMBASE were searched for peer-reviewed simulation-based studies of structural interventions for prevention of cardiovascular disease. We performed a systematic narrative synthesis.

Results

A total of 54 studies met the inclusion criteria. Diet, nutrition, tobacco and alcohol control and other programmes are among the policy simulation models explored. Food tax and subsidies, healthy food and lifestyles policies, palm oil tax, processed meat tax, reduction in ultra-processed foods, supplementary nutrition assistance programmes, stricter food policy and subsidised community-supported agriculture were among the diet and nutrition initiatives. Initiatives to reduce tobacco and alcohol use included a smoking ban, a national tobacco control initiative and a tax on alcohol. Others included the NHS Health Check, WHO 25 × 25 and air quality management policy.

Future work and limitations

There is significant heterogeneity in simulation models, making comparisons of output data impossible. While policy interventions typically include a variety of strategies, none of the models considered possible interrelationships between multiple policies or potential interactions. Research that investigates dose-response interactions between numerous modifications as well as longer-term clinical outcomes can help us better understand the potential impact of policy-level interventions.

Conclusions

The reviewed studies underscore the potential of structural interventions in addressing cardiovascular diseases. Notably, interventions in areas such as diet, tobacco, and alcohol control demonstrate a prospective decrease in cardiovascular incidents. However, to realize the full potential of such interventions, there is a pressing need for models that consider the interplay and cumulative impacts of multiple policies. Rigorous research into holistic and interconnected interventions will pave the way for more effective policy strategies in the future.

Study registration

The study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42019154836.

Funding

This article presents independent research funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme as award number 17/148/05.

Application of uncertainty quantification to artificial intelligence in healthcare: A review of last decade (2013-2023)

Uncertainty estimation in healthcare involves quantifying and understanding the inherent uncertainty or variability associated with medical predictions, diagnoses, and treatment outcomes. In this era of Artificial Intelligence (AI) models, uncertainty estimation becomes vital to ensure safe decision-making in the medical field. Therefore, this review focuses on the application of uncertainty techniques to machine and deep learning models in healthcare. A systematic literature review was conducted using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. Our analysis revealed that Bayesian methods were the predominant technique for uncertainty quantification in machine learning models, with Fuzzy systems being the second most used approach. Regarding deep learning models, Bayesian methods emerged as the most prevalent approach, finding application in nearly all aspects of medical imaging. Most of the studies reported in this paper focused on medical images, highlighting the prevalent application of uncertainty quantification techniques using deep learning models compared to machine learning models. Interestingly, we observed a scarcity of studies applying uncertainty quantification to physiological signals. Thus, future research on uncertainty quantification should prioritize investigating the application of these techniques to physiological signals. Overall, our review highlights the significance of integrating uncertainty techniques in healthcare applications of machine learning and deep learning models. This can provide valuable insights and practical solutions to manage uncertainty in real-world medical data, ultimately improving the accuracy and reliability of medical diagnoses and treatment recommendations.

Global burden of ischemic heart disease attributable to high sugar-sweetened beverages intake from 1990 to 2019

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Excessive sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) intake is associated with a higher risk of ischemic heart disease (IHD). However, global patterns and trends in the burden of IHD attributable to high SSBs intake have not been systematically assessed.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We retrieved data from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019. We obtained the numbers and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rate (ASDR) of IHD attributable to high SSBs intake by sex, year, socio-demographic index (SDI), and country between 1990 and 2019. Furthermore, we used a validated decomposition algorithm to attribute changes to population growth, population aging, and epidemiologic changes in the 21 GBD regions. From 1990 to 2019, the global IHD mortality attributable to high SSBs intake, as quantified by ASMR and ASDR declined significantly, while the burden increased saliently in absolute numbers. Population decomposition suggested that changes in epidemiology in most GBD regions have reduced IHD mortality due to high SSBs intake, but this trend has been counteracted by population growth and aging.

CONCLUSIONS

Although the age-standardized rate of IHD deaths and DALYs attributable to high SSBs intake decreased overall from 1990 to 2019, the absolute IHD burden remains high in some countries, especially in some developing countries in Asia and Oceania. Action is needed to enhance the prevention of diseases associated with high SSBs intake.

Association of soft drinks and 100% fruit juice consumption with risk of cancer: a systematic review and dose-response meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies

BACKGROUND

Studies of the associations between soft drinks and the risk of cancer showed inconsistent results. No previous published systematic reviews and meta-analysis has investigated a dose-response association between exposure dose and cancer risk or assessed the certainty of currently available evidence. Therefore, we aim to demonstrate the associations and assessed the certainty of the evidence to show our confidence in the associations.

METHODS

We searched Embase, PubMed, Web of Science, and the Cochrane Library from inception to Jun 2022, to include relevant prospective cohort studies. We used a restricted cubic spline model to conduct a dose-response meta-analysis and calculated the absolute effect estimates to present the results. The Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) approach was used to assess the certainty of the evidence.

RESULTS

Forty-two articles including on 37 cohorts enrolled 4,518,547 participants were included. With low certainty evidence, increased consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) per 250 mL/day was significantly associated with a 17% greater risk of breast cancer, a 10% greater risk of colorectal cancer, a 30% greater risk of biliary tract cancer, and a 10% greater risk of prostate cancer; increased consumption of artificially sweetened beverages (ASBs)re per 250 mL/day was significantly associated with a 16% greater risk of leukemia; increased consumption of 100% fruit juice per 250 mL/day was significantly associated with a 31% greater risk of overall cancer, 22% greater risk of melanoma, 2% greater risk of squamous cell carcinoma, and 29% greater risk of thyroid cancer. The associations with other specific cancer were no significant. We found linear dose-response associations between consumption of SSBs and the risk of breast and kidney cancer, and between consumption of ASBs and 100% fruit juices and the risk of pancreatic cancer.

CONCLUSIONS

An increment in consumption of SSBs of 250 mL/day was positively associated with increased risk of breast, colorectal, and biliary tract cancer. Fruit juices consumption was also positively associated with the risk of overall cancer, thyroid cancer, and melanoma. The magnitude of absolute effects, however, was small and mainly based on low or very low certainty of evidence. The association of ASBs consumption with specific cancer risk was uncertain.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

PROSPERO: CRD42020152223.

Modelling health and economic impact of nutrition interventions: a systematic review

Diet related non-communicable diseases (NCDs), as well as micronutrient deficiencies, are of widespread and growing importance to public health. Authorities are developing programs to improve nutrient intakes via foods. To estimate the potential health and economic impact of these programs there is a wide variety of models. The aim of this review is to evaluate existing models to estimate the health and/or economic impact of nutrition interventions with a focus on reducing salt and sugar intake and increasing vitamin D, iron, and folate/folic acid intake. The protocol of this systematic review has been registered with the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO: CRD42016050873). The final search was conducted on PubMed and Scopus electronic databases and search strings were developed for salt/sodium, sugar, vitamin D, iron, and folic acid intake. Predefined criteria related to scientific quality, applicability, and funding/interest were used to evaluate the publications. In total 122 publications were included for a critical appraisal: 45 for salt/sodium, 61 for sugar, 4 for vitamin D, 9 for folic acid, and 3 for iron. The complexity of modelling the health and economic impact of nutrition interventions is dependent on the purpose and data availability. Although most of the models have the potential to provide projections of future impact, the methodological challenges are considerable. There is a substantial need for more guidance and standardization for future modelling, to compare results of different studies and draw conclusions about the health and economic impact of nutrition interventions.

Modelling the impact of plain packaging of tobacco products on cardiovascular disease in Argentina

INTRODUCTION

Tobacco packaging design is conceived to be attractive. Plain packaging of tobacco products reduces this attractiveness by standardising their shape, size, font and colours.

METHODS

To evaluate the effect of applying plain packaging to tobacco products on cardiovascular events and mortality in Argentina, we used the Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model-Argentina, a local adaptation of a well-established computer simulation model that projects cardiovascular and mortality events for the population 35-94 years old using local demographic and consumption data, during the period 2015-2024. After a literature review, we estimated that the implementation of plain packaging of tobacco products would result in an absolute decrease in tobacco prevalence of 0.55% (base-case scenario) and performed a sensitivity analysis assuming a higher and lower decrease of 1.01% and 0.095%, respectively.

RESULTS

Over the 2015-2024 period, the decrease in smoking prevalence associated with plain packaging (0.55%) is projected to avert 1880 myocardial infarctions (MI), 820 strokes and 4320 total deaths in Argentina. The higher estimate of smoking prevalence reduction (1.01%) would translate into 3450 fewer MIs, 1490 fewer strokes and 7920 fewer deaths, while the lower estimate of smoking prevalence reduction (0.095%) would result in 330 fewer MIs, 140 fewer strokes and 750 fewer deaths.

CONCLUSIONS

The implementation of plain packaging of tobacco products could reduce cardiovascular events in Argentina, even in the absence of other tobacco control measures. Actual health benefits are likely higher than those presented here, since plain packaging may be most impactful by preventing young people from initiating smoking.

The burden of disease and economic impact of sugar-sweetened beverages' consumption in Argentina: A modeling study

BACKGROUND

Approximately two-thirds of Argentine adults are overweight or obese, and 11% have diabetes. Over the last two decades, all population groups have increased their consumption of ultra-processed foods and sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB). We aimed to estimate the disease burden-deaths, events, and costs to the health system-attributed to SSB consumption in Argentina.

METHODS

We used a comparative risk assessment framework to estimate the health and economic impacts that would be avoided in a scenario without sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) consumption. We calculated the direct effects on diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and BMI, and then estimated the effects of BMI on disease incidence. Finally, we applied the population attributable factor to calculate the health and economic burden avoided in Argentina in 2020.

RESULTS

Our model estimated that about 4,425 deaths, 110,000 healthy life years lost to premature death and disability, more than 520,000 cases of overweight and obesity in adults, and 774,000 in children and adolescents would be attributed to SSB Consumption in Argentina. This disease burden corresponds to 23% of type-2 diabetes cases and other significant proportions of cardiovascular disease and cancer. The overweight and obesity costs attributable to SSB totaled approximately $47 million in adults and $15 million in children and adolescents.

CONCLUSION

A significant number of disease cases, deaths, and health care costs could be attributed to SSB consumption in Argentina. Implementing measures to reduce the sugar content in beverages is a pending debt for the country and could lead to measurable improvements in population health, especially among children and adolescents.

Health and economic burden of disease of sugar-sweetened beverage consumption in four Latin American and Caribbean countries: a modelling study

OBJECTIVE

Overweight and obesity are important contributors to the non-communicable disease burden. The consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) has been associated with an increased risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), cardiovascular disease, cancer and other conditions. The objective of this study was to estimate the burden of disease attributable to the consumption of SSBs and the costs to the healthcare systems in Argentina, Brazil, El Salvador, and Trinidad and Tobago.

DESIGN

Following a systematic review of models, a comparative risk assessment framework was developed to estimate the health and economic impact associated with the consumption of SSBs.

SETTING

Argentina, Brazil, El Salvador, and Trinidad and Tobago.

PARTICIPANTS

Overall population.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

The model estimated the effects of SSB consumption on health through two causal pathways: one mediated by body mass index (BMI) and health conditions associated with BMI and another that reflected the independent effects of SSB consumption on T2DM and cardiovascular diseases.

RESULTS

The model results indicated that for all four countries, in 1 year, SSB consumption was associated with 18 000 deaths (3.2% of the total disease-related deaths), seven million disease events (3.3% of the total disease-related events), a half-million DALYs and US$2 billion in direct medical costs. This included 1.5 million cases of overweight and obesity in children/adolescents (12% of the excess weight cases) and 2.8 million cases in adults (2.8%); 2.2 million cases of type 2 diabetes (19%); 200 000 cases of heart disease (3.8%); 124 000 strokes (3.9%); 116 000 cases of musculoskeletal disease (0.2%); 102 000 cases of kidney disease (0.9%); and 45 000 episodes of asthma (0.4%). The Trinidad and Tobago population were the most affected by disease events.

CONCLUSIONS

The study results indicate that the consumption of SSBs is associated with a significant burden of disease and death in Latin America and the Caribbean.

Premature Deaths Attributable to the Consumption of Ultraprocessed Foods in Brazil

INTRODUCTION

Ultraprocessed foods have been associated with an increased risk of noncommunicable diseases, such as diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, and cancer as well as all-cause mortality. The study aimed to estimate premature deaths attributable to the consumption of ultraprocessed food in Brazil.

METHODS

A comparative risk assessment model was developed on the basis of RRs from a recent meta-analysis, national food consumption for 2017-2018, and demographic and mortality data for 2019. Population attributable fractions for all-cause mortality were then estimated within each sex and age stratum according to the distribution of the ultraprocessed food contribution to the total energy of the diet. Analysis was conducted in February 2022-April 2022.

RESULTS

The contribution of ultraprocessed foods to the total energy intake of the diet across sex and age stratum of Brazilian adults ranged from 13% to 21% of the total energy intake. A total of 541,160 adults aged 30‒69 years died in 2019. The consumption of ultraprocessed foods was responsible for approximately 57,000 premature deaths (95% uncertainty interval=33,493, 82,570) or 10.5% of all premature deaths in adults aged 30‒69 years. Reducing the contribution of ultraprocessed foods to the total energy intake by 10%‒50% could potentially prevent 5,900 deaths (95% uncertainty interval=2,910, 10,613) to 29,300 deaths (95% uncertainty interval=16,514, 44,226), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The consumption of ultraprocessed foods represents a significant cause of premature death in Brazil. Reducing ultraprocessed food intake would promote substantial health gains for the population and should be a food policy priority to reduce premature mortality.

The Potential Impact of Different Taxation Scenarios towards Sugar-Sweetened Beverages on Overweight and Obesity in Brazil: A Modeling Study

The adoption of fiscal policies based on the specific taxation of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) has been recommended by international health agencies, as they are measures that potentially reduce consumption. This study is an ex ante risk comparison that estimates the impact of three tax scenarios (20, 25, and 30%) with a 100% pass-on rate to SSBs on the prevalence of high weight and obesity in the Brazilian population. Data on the consumption habits, weight, and height of 46,164 adults aged 20 years or over from Brazilian recent national surveys were used. The shift in consumption after taxation was estimated based on the price elasticity of the demand. The percentage changes in overweight for 20, 25, and 30% taxation were 1.84% (95%CI: 1.82; 1.86), 1.89% (95%CI: 1.87; 1.90), and 2.25% (95%CI: 2.24; 2.27), respectively. The change in the prevalence of obesity was 1.93% (95%CI: 1.87; 2.00), 2.90% (95%CI: 2.80; 3.02), and 4.16% (95%CI: 4.01; 4.32), respectively. Taxes on SSBs may have a more favorable result among the heaviest consumers, who are young adults (20-29 years), especially men, thereby promoting a greater reduction in the prevalence of high weight and obesity.

Impact of a reduction in sugar-sweetened beverage consumption on the burden of type 2 diabetes in Brazil: A modeling study

AIM

To model the impact of a 20 % tax on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) on the disease burden of T2DM among Brazilian adults.

METHODS

This is an ex-ante risk comparative study. The model applied a 20 % tax on SSB and projected the incidence, prevalence, and mortality of T2DM over a 20-year period (2019 to 2039). Using recent national data on consumption, previously published cross- and own-price elasticities of SSBs and diabetes relative risk we estimated changes on T2DM burden.

RESULTS

With a 20 % tax on SSBs, after 10 years, we estimated a reduction of 37,303 new cases of T2DM for men and 56,757 for women; 184,129 prevalent cases for men and 219,236 for women; and 5,386 and 6,075 deaths for men and women, respectively. After 20 years, 8.6 % and 12.4 % new cases of T2DM will have been prevented, 4.0 % and 5.5 % prevalent cases, and 13.7 % and 12.7 % deaths among men and women, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

SSB taxes have the potential to reduce the burden of and deaths attributable to T2DM. Our results show that a fiscal policy may significantly impact strategic plans to tackle noncommunicable diseases.

Relation of Change or Substitution of Low- and No-Calorie Sweetened Beverages With Cardiometabolic Outcomes: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of Prospective Cohort Studies

BACKGROUND

Adverse associations of low- and no-calorie sweetened beverages (LNCSB) with cardiometabolic outcomes in observational studies may be explained by reverse causality and residual confounding.

PURPOSE

To address these limitations we used change analyses of repeated measures of intake and substitution analyses to synthesize the association of LNCSB with cardiometabolic outcomes.

DATA SOURCES

MEDLINE, Embase, and the Cochrane Library were searched up to 10 June 2021 for prospective cohort studies with ≥1 year of follow-up duration in adults.

STUDY SELECTION

Outcomes included changes in clinical measures of adiposity, risk of overweight/obesity, metabolic syndrome, type 2 diabetes (T2D), cardiovascular disease, and total mortality.

DATA EXTRACTION

Two independent reviewers extracted data, assessed study quality, and assessed certainty of evidence using GRADE. Data were pooled with a random-effects model and expressed as mean difference (MD) or risk ratio (RR) and 95% CI.

DATA SYNTHESIS

A total of 14 cohorts (416,830 participants) met the eligibility criteria. Increase in LNCSB intake was associated with lower weight (5 cohorts, 130,020 participants; MD -0.008 kg/year [95% CI -0.014, -0.002]). Substitution of LNCSB for sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB) was associated with lower weight (three cohorts, 165,579 participants; MD, -0.12 [-0.14, -0.10,] kg/y) and lower incidence of obesity (OB) (one cohort, 15,765 participants; RR 0.88 [95% CI 0.88, 0.89]), coronary heart disease (six cohorts, 233,676 participants; 0.89 [0.81, 0.98]), cardiovascular disease mortality (one cohort, 118,363 participants; 0.95 [0.90, 0.99]), and total mortality (one cohort, 118,363 participants; 0.96 [0.94, 0.98]) with no adverse associations across other outcomes. Substitution of water for SSB showed lower weight (three cohorts, 165,579 participants; MD -0.10 kg/year [-0.13, -0.06]), lower waist circumference (one cohort, 173 participants; -2.71 cm/year [-4.27, -1.15]) and percent body fat (one cohort, 173 participants; -1.51% per year [-2.61, -0.42]), and lower incidence of OB (one cohort, 15,765 participants; RR 0.85 [0.75, 0.97]) and T2D (three cohorts, 281,855 participants; 0.96 [0.94, 0.98]). Substitution of LNCSB for water showed no adverse associations.

LIMITATIONS

The evidence was low to very low certainty owing to downgrades for imprecision, indirectness, and/or inconsistency.

CONCLUSIONS

LNCSB were not associated with cardiometabolic harm in analyses that model the exposure as change or substitutions. The available evidence provides some indication that LNCSB in their intended substitution for SSB may be associated with cardiometabolic benefit, comparable with the standard of care, water.

Socioeconomic Inequalities in the Prevalence of Diabetes in Argentina: A Repeated Cross-Sectional Study in Urban Women and Men

This study measured the socioeconomic inequalities in the prevalence of diabetes between 2005 and 2018 in an urban Argentinian population. Data were obtained from the repeated cross-sectional surveys “National Survey of Risk Factors” (ENFR is its acronym in Spanish). From 2005 to 2018, four rounds of ENFR were administered to men and women over 18 years of age. Concentration curves (CC) and the Erreygers concentration index (ECI) were used to describe the socioeconomic inequalities in diabetes’ prevalence. A decomposition analysis was performed to determine the contribution of each variable to inequality in diabetes’ prevalence. Data from 41,219 (2005), 34,583 (2009), 32,232 (2013), and 29,094 (2018) individuals were analyzed. Women reported a greater prevalence of diabetes compared with men for all the years included. According to the CC and ECI, we found no evidence of inequality in men throughout all study years. For women, throughout all years, the CCs were above the line of equity, and the ECIs during all the years were negative and different from zero (p < 0.01). For women, we found no evidence of a reduction in inequalities between 2005 and 2018 (p = 0.475). The socioeconomic inequality for women was largely driven by public insurance, primary and secondary education, and employment. Diabetes’ prevalence was not associated with socioeconomic status in men, while the prevalence of diabetes in women was more concentrated among poorer women. During the 13 years, there was no evidence of a reduction of inequality in women, noting that interventions must prioritize and should focus on the main contribution of inequalities, such as education and employment.

Impacto sanitario de la prohibición total de publicidades de tabaco en argentina

Health impact of the total ban on advertising of tobacco productsThe objective was to estimate the health impact of the total ban on advertising of tobacco products in terms of avoided cardiovascular events in those over 35 years of age in Argentina.The Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model (CVDPM) was used, which is a Markov simulation model used to represent and project mortality and morbidity due to cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the population aged 35 or over. It constitutes a demographic-epidemiological model, which represents the population between 35 and 95 years of age and uses a logistic regression model based on the Framingham equation to estimate the annual incidence of cardiovascular disease. We assumed that implementing a complete ban on the advertising of tobacco products would lead to a 9% reduction in tobacco consumption.The complete ban on advertising could prevent 15,164 deaths over a period of 10 years, of which 2610 would be the result of coronary heart disease and 747 due to stroke. These reductions would mean an annual decrease of 0.46% of total deaths, 0.60% of deaths from coronary heart disease and 0.33% in deaths from stroke. In addition, during the same period, it would avoid 6630 acute myocardial infarctions and 2851 strokes (reductions of 1.35% and 0.40%, respectively).We hope that these findings might contribute to the strengthening of sanitary tobacco control policies in Argentina based on the remarkable benefits of banning the advertising of tobacco products in full and in line with current global recommendations.

Sugar intake from sweetened beverages and diabetes: A narrative review

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is one of the fastest growing public health concerns around the world. Sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) consumption has been proven to be associated with adverse health consequences in the diabetic population. Reducing SSB consumption, body weight control, healthy diets, and increased physical activity have been suggested as strategies to improve diabetes prevention and management. This literature review provides an overview of: (1) The association between SSB consumption and the risk of T2DM; (2) Types of SSB consumption and T2DM; (3) The effect of obesity and inflammation on the association between SSB consumption and risk of T2DM; and (4) SSB consumption in T2DM patients. There is still work to be done to determine how SSB consumption is related to T2DM, but the current research on identifying the association between SSB consumption and T2DM is promising, with the most promising studies confirming the connection between SSBs, T2DM risk, and diabetes management. Future studies should explore more effective SSB related diabetes prevention and management interventions.

Association of soft drink and 100% fruit juice consumption with all-cause mortality, cardiovascular diseases mortality, and cancer mortality: A systematic review and dose-response meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies

Sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs), artificially sweetened beverages (ASBs), and 100% fruit juices are frequently consumed and have been documented that they could lead to serious disease burden. However, inconsistent evidence on the association between SSBs, ASBs, and 100% fruit juices consumption and mortality have been presented. PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and PsycINFO were systematically searched. We conducted a random-effects meta-analysis and dose-response meta-analysis to assess the association and calculated the pooled hazard ratio with 95% confidence interval. And we evaluated the certainty of evidence using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) approach. Thirteen studies with 1,539,127 participants proved eligible. An SSB-consumption increase per 250 mL/day was associated with a 4% greater risk of all-cause mortality (5 more per 1000 persons; low certainty) and 8% greater risk of cardiovascular disease mortality (3 more per 1000 persons; low certainty). ASB-consumption increase per 250 mL/day demonstrated a 4% greater risk of all-cause mortality (5 more per 1000 persons; low certainty) and 4% greater risk of cardiovascular disease mortality (2 more per 1000 persons; low certainty). The association of SSBs and ASBs with cancer mortality was not significant, with a very low certainty of evidence. There was evidence of a linear dose-response association between SSB intake and cancer mortality, as well as between ASB intake and all-cause mortality and cancer mortality. We observed a non-linear dose-response association between ASB intake and CVD mortality and SSB intake and all-cause and CVD mortality. Low certainty of evidence demonstrated that per 250 mL/day consumption increase in SSBs and ASBs had a small impact on all-cause and cardiovascular disease mortality but not on cancer mortality. The association of 100% fruit juice consumption with all-cause and cardiovascular disease mortality was uncertain.

Handling of uncertainty in medical data using machine learning and probability theory techniques: a review of 30 years (1991-2020)

Understanding the data and reaching accurate conclusions are of paramount importance in the present era of big data. Machine learning and probability theory methods have been widely used for this purpose in various fields. One critically important yet less explored aspect is capturing and analyzing uncertainties in the data and model. Proper quantification of uncertainty helps to provide valuable information to obtain accurate diagnosis. This paper reviewed related studies conducted in the last 30 years (from 1991 to 2020) in handling uncertainties in medical data using probability theory and machine learning techniques. Medical data is more prone to uncertainty due to the presence of noise in the data. So, it is very important to have clean medical data without any noise to get accurate diagnosis. The sources of noise in the medical data need to be known to address this issue. Based on the medical data obtained by the physician, diagnosis of disease, and treatment plan are prescribed. Hence, the uncertainty is growing in healthcare and there is limited knowledge to address these problems. Our findings indicate that there are few challenges to be addressed in handling the uncertainty in medical raw data and new models. In this work, we have summarized various methods employed to overcome this problem. Nowadays, various novel deep learning techniques have been proposed to deal with such uncertainties and improve the performance in decision making.