Can self-imposed prevention measures mitigate the COVID-19 epidemic?

Impact of Covid -19 incidence rate and government-initiated risk communication measures on individual's NPI practices

BACKGROUND

Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) are the most widely recognized public health measures recognized globally to prevent the spread of Covid-19. NPIs' effectiveness may depend on the type, combination of applied interventions, and the level of proper public compliance with the NPIs. The expected outcome of behavioural practices varies relative to the intervention duration.

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to assess the trend of community compliance to NPI with Covid-19 incidence and government-initiated interventions, and its variation by residence and sociodemographic characteristics of people.

METHODS

A weekly non-participatory field survey on individuals' NPI practices was observed from the 41st epidemiological week of October 5th, 2020, to the 26th epidemiological week of July 4th, 2021, a total of 39 weeks. The survey covered all 14 regional and national capital cities in Ethiopia. Data collection for the three NPI behaviours (i.e., respiratory hygiene, hand hygiene, and physical distance) was managed weekly at eight public service locations using the Open Data Kit (ODK) tool. The Covid- 19 incidence data and public health measures information from August 3rd, 2020 to July 4th, 2021 were obtained from the Ethiopian Public Health Institute (EPHI).

RESULTS

More than 180,000 individuals were observed for their NPI practice, with an average of 5,000 observations in a week. About 43% of the observations were made in Addis Ababa, 56% were male and 75% were middle age group (18-50 years). The overall level of NPI compliance was high at the beginning of the observation then peaked around the 13th- 15th epidemiological weeks then declined during the rest of the weeks. The peak NPI compliance periods followed the high Covid-19 death incidence and government-initiated intensive public health measures weeks. Respiratory hygiene had the highest compliance above 41% whereas hand hygiene was the lowest (4%). There was a significant difference between residents of the capital city and regional cities in their level of compliance with NPI. Females comply more than males, and individuals had increased NPI compliance at the bank service and workplaces compared to those in the transport services at P = 0.000.

CONCLUSION

An increased level of compliance with NPI was observed following intensive government-initiated Covid-19 prevention measures and an increased Covid-19 death incidence. Therefore, the intensity of government-initiated risk communication and public advocacy programs should be strengthened, possibly for similar respiratory disease pandemics in the future.

Analyzing the Trends of COVID-19 and Human Activity Intensity in Malaysia

COVID-19 has struck the world with multiple waves. Each wave was caused by a variant and presented different peaks and baselines. This made the identification of waves with the time series of the cases a difficult task. Human activity intensities may affect the occurrence of an outbreak. We demonstrated a metric of time series, namely log-moving-average-ratio (LMAR), to identify the waves and directions of the changes in the disease cases and check-ins (MySejahtera). Based on the detected waves and changes, we explore the relationship between the two. Using the stimulus-organism-response model with our results, we presented a four-stage model: (1) government-imposed movement restrictions, (2) revenge travel, (3) self-imposed movement reduction, and (4) the new normal. The inverse patterns between check-ins and pandemic waves suggested that the self-imposed movement reduction would naturally happen and would be sufficient for a smaller epidemic wave. People may spontaneously be aware of the severity of epidemic situations and take appropriate disease prevention measures to reduce the risks of exposure and infection. In summary, LMAR is more sensitive to the waves and could be adopted to characterize the association between travel willingness and confirmed disease cases.

Causal Modeling of Descriptive Social Norms from Twitter and the Physical World on Expressed Attitudes Change: A Case Study of COVID-19 Vaccination

The high infection rate of SARS-CoV-2 makes it urgent to promote vaccination among the public. Previous studies found that people tend to follow the behaviors desired in descriptive social norms, which exist in both social media (e.g., Twitter) and physical-world communities. However, it remains unclear whether and to what extent the descriptive social norms from the cyber and physical communities affect people's attitude change. This study, focusing on COVID-19 vaccination, developed a Directed Acyclic Graphs model to investigate the causal effects of the descriptive social norms of (i) Twitterverse and (ii) physical-world communities on people's attitude change as well as the temporal scales of the effects. It used a Long Short-Term Memory classifier to extract expressed attitudes and changes from relevant tweets posted by 843 sample users. We found that a people's attitude change toward the vaccination receives a more significant impact from Twitter-based descriptive social norms over the prior week, whereas the norms in the physical-world communities tend to be less influential but still notable with the time gap between 2 weeks and 1 month. The findings revealed the potential of using online social norm approaches to proactively motivate behavioral changes toward a culture of health.

Stay-at-home and face mask policy intentions inconsistent with incidence and fatality during the US COVID-19 pandemic

During the COVID-19 pandemic, many states imposed stay-at-home (SAH) and mandatory face mask (MFM) orders to supplement the United States CDC recommendations. The purpose of this study was to characterize the relationship between SAH and MFM approaches with the incidence and fatality of COVID-19 during the pandemic period until 23 August 2020 (about 171 days), the period with no vaccines or specific drugs that had passed the phase III clinical trials yet. States with SAH orders showed a potential 50-60% decrease in infection and fatality during the SAH period (about 45 days). After normalization to population density, there was a 44% significant increase in the fatality rate in no-SAH + no-MFM states when compared to SAH + MFM. However, many results in this study were inconsistent with the intent of public health strategies of SAH and MFM. There were similar incidence rates (1.41, 1.81, and 1.36%) and significant differences in fatality rates (3.40, 2.12, and 1.25%; p < 0.05) and mortality rates (51.43, 34.50, and 17.42 per 100,000 residents; p < 0.05) among SAH + MFM, SAH + no-MFM, and no-SAH + no-MFM states, respectively. There were no significant differences in total positive cases, average daily new cases, and average daily fatality when normalized with population density among the three groups. This study suggested potential decreases in infection and fatality with short-term SAH order. However, SAH and MFM orders from some states' policies probably had limited effects in lowering transmission and fatality among the general population. At the policy-making level, if contagious patients would not likely be placed in strict isolation and massive contact tracing would not be effective to implement, we presume that following the CDC's recommendations with close monitoring of healthcare capacity could be appropriate in helping mitigate the COVID-19 disaster while limiting collateral socioeconomic damages.

Effectiveness and adherence to closed face shields in the prevention of COVID-19 transmission: a non-inferiority randomized controlled trial in a middle-income setting (COVPROSHIELD)

BACKGROUND

The use of respiratory devices can mitigate the spread of diseases such as COVID-19 in community settings. We aimed to determine the effectiveness of closed face shields with surgical face masks to prevent SARS-CoV-2 transmission in working adults during the COVID-19 pandemic in Bogotá, Colombia.

METHODS

An open-label non-inferiority randomized controlled trial that randomly assigned participants to one of two groups: the intervention group was instructed to wear closed face shields with surgical face masks, and the active control group was instructed to wear only surgical face masks. The primary outcome was a positive reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction test, IgG/IgM antibody test for SARS-CoV-2 detection, or both during and at the end of the follow-up period of 21 days. The non-inferiority limit was established at - 5%.

RESULTS

A total of 316 participants were randomized, 160 participants were assigned to the intervention group and 156 to the active control group. In total, 141 (88.1%) participants in the intervention group and 142 (91.0%) in the active control group completed the follow-up.

PRIMARY OUTCOME

a positive SARS-CoV-2 test result was identified in one (0.71%) participant in the intervention group and three (2.1%) in the active control group. In the intention-to-treat analysis, the absolute risk difference was - 1.40% (95% CI [- 4.14%, 1.33%]), and in the per-protocol analysis, the risk difference was - 1.40% (95% CI [- 4.20, 1.40]), indicating non-inferiority of the closed face shield plus face mask (did not cross the non-inferiority limit).

CONCLUSIONS

The use of closed face shields and surgical face masks was non-inferior to the surgical face mask alone in the prevention of SARS-CoV-2 infection in highly exposed groups. Settings with highly active viral transmission and conditions such as poor ventilation, crowding, and high mobility due to occupation may benefit from the combined use of masks and closed face shields to mitigate SARS-CoV-2 transmission.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04647305 . Registered on November 30, 2020.

What Is the Impact of Early and Subsequent Epidemic Characteristics on the Pre-delta COVID-19 Epidemic Size in the United States?

It is still uncertain how the epidemic characteristics of COVID-19 in its early phase and subsequent waves contributed to the pre-delta epidemic size in the United States. We identified the early and subsequent characteristics of the COVID-19 epidemic and the correlation between these characteristics and the pre-delta epidemic size. Most (96.1% (49/51)) of the states entered a fast-growing phase before the accumulative number of cases reached (30). The days required for the number of confirmed cases to increase from 30 to 100 was 5.6 (5.1−6.1) days. As of 31 March 2021, all 51 states experienced at least 2 waves of COVID-19 outbreaks, 23.5% (12/51) experienced 3 waves, and 15.7% (8/51) experienced 4 waves, the epidemic size of COVID-19 was 19,275−3,669,048 cases across the states. The pre-delta epidemic size was significantly correlated with the duration from 30 to 100 cases (p = 0.003, r = −0.405), the growth rate of the fast-growing phase (p = 0.012, r = 0.351), and the peak cases in the subsequent waves (K1 (p < 0.001, r = 0.794), K2 (p < 0.001, r = 0.595), K3 (p < 0.001, r = 0.977), and K4 (p = 0.002, r = 0.905)). We observed that both early and subsequent epidemic characteristics contribute to the pre-delta epidemic size of COVID-19. This identification is important to the prediction of the emerging viral infectious diseases in the primary stage.

Early and Subsequent Epidemic Characteristics of COVID-19 and Their Impact on the Epidemic Size in Ethiopia

In Ethiopia, multiple waves of the COVID-19 epidemic have been observed. So far, no studies have investigated the characteristics of the waves of epidemic waves in the country. Identifying the epidemic trend in Ethiopia will inform future prevention and control of COVID-19. This study aims to identify the early indicators and the characteristics of multiple waves of the COVID-19 epidemics and their impact on the overall epidemic size in Ethiopia. We employed the Jointpoint software to identify key epidemic characteristics in the early phase of the COVID-19 epidemic and a simple logistic growth model to identify epidemic characteristics of its subsequent waves. Among the first 100 reported cases in Ethiopia, we identified a slow-growing phase (0.37 [CI: 0.10-0.78] cases/day), which was followed by a fast-growing phase (1.18 [0.50-2.00] cases/day). The average turning point from slow to fast-growing phase was at 18 days after first reported. We identified two subsequent waves of COVID-19 in Ethiopia during 03/2020-04/2021. We estimated the number of COVID-19 cases that occurred during the second wave (157,064 cases) was >2 times more than the first (60,016 cases). The second wave's duration was longer than the first (116 vs. 96 days). As of April 30th, 2021, the overall epidemic size in Ethiopia was 794/100,000, ranging from 1,669/100,000 in the Harari region to 40/100,000 in the Somali region. The epidemic size was significantly and positively correlated with the day of the phase turning point (r = 0.750, P = 0.008), the estimated number of cases in wave one (r = 0.854, P < 0.001), and wave two (r = 0.880, P < 0.001). The second wave of COVID-19 in Ethiopia is far greater, and its duration is longer than the first. Early phase turning point and case numbers in the subsequent waves predict its overall epidemic size.

Sustaining the public health intervention strategies in confronting the Covid-19 pandemic

The most effective strategies that any society has while fighting against confronting the pandemic Covid-19 is affecting not just health but also economics, politics, and social order while fighting against its spread. The main intervention strategies in preventing the spread in any society are hand hygiene, wearing masks, social distancing and quarantine. The purpose of this study was to examine the characteristics of strategies and actions aim to sustain the implementation and change of a public behavior intended for facing long-term pandemics or crises. A review-research was done between August and December 2020 on some papers considering the topic of sustainability of strategies, sustainable public health actions and strategies used to face the Covid-19 and similar pandemics in various countries. This study presents the necessity to focus on strategies sustainability especially in pandemic circumstances like Covid-19. The sustainability in implementing large public health strategies is categorized by primary flexibility and vitality. The foremost intervention strategies applied to influence the community in the target of daily activities were to use enhancement guidelines, interactive educating courses, monitoring and evaluations, and dynamic involvement of stakeholders that may sustain these strategies for longer periods. Public health intervention strategies comprise different approaches depending on types of actors, shifts in the pandemic situation, contextual aspects, progress over time, and the ability for sustainability. It is necessary to guarantee that public health strategies are effectively embedded in their settings, depending on more evidence-based approaches and understanding how valuable interventions can be sustainable.

COVID-19 Pandemic: Public Health Risk Assessment and Risk Mitigation Strategies

A newly emerged respiratory viral disease called severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) is also known as pandemic coronavirus disease (COVID-19). This pandemic has resulted an unprecedented global health crisis and devastating impact on several sectors of human lives and economies. Fortunately, the average case fatality ratio for SARS-CoV-2 is below 2%, much lower than that estimated for MERS (34%) and SARS (11%). However, COVID-19 has a much higher transmissibility rate, as evident from the constant increase in the count of infections worldwide. This article explores the reasons behind how COVID-19 was able to cause a global pandemic crisis. The current outbreak scenario and causes of rapid global spread are examined using recent developments in the literature, epidemiological features relevant to public health awareness, and critical perspective of risk assessment and mitigation strategies. Effective pandemic risk mitigation measures have been established and amended against COVID-19 diseases, but there is still much scope for upgrading execution and coordination among authorities in terms of organizational leadership's commitment and diverse range of safety measures, including administrative control measures, engineering control measures, and personal protective equipment (PPE). The significance of containment interventions against the COVID-19 pandemic is now well established; however, there is a need for its effective execution across the globe, and for the improvement of the performance of risk mitigation practices and suppression of future pandemic crises.

Investigating the relationship between reopening the economy and implementing control measures during the COVID-19 pandemic

Objectives

The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in an enormous burden on population health and the economy around the world. Although most cities in the United States have reopened their economies from previous lockdowns, it was not clear how the magnitude of different control measures—such as face mask use and social distancing—may affect the timing of reopening the economy for a local region. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between reopening dates and control measures and identify the conditions under which a city can be reopened safely.

Study design

This was a mathematical modeling study.

Methods

We developed a dynamic compartment model to capture the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in New York City. We estimated model parameters from local COVID-19 data. We conducted three sets of policy simulations to investigate how different reopening dates and magnitudes of control measures would affect the COVID-19 epidemic.

Results

The model estimated that maintaining social contact at 80% of the prepandemic level and a 50% face mask usage would prevent a major surge of COVID-19 after reopening. If social distancing were completely relaxed after reopening, face mask usage would need to be maintained at nearly 80% to prevent a major surge.

Conclusions

Adherence to social distancing and increased face mask usage are keys to prevent a major surge after a city reopens its economy. The findings from our study can help policymakers identify the conditions under which a city can be reopened safely.

Human Cooperation and the Crises of Climate Change, COVID-19, and Misinformation

Contemporary society is facing many social dilemmas-including climate change, COVID-19, and misinformation-characterized by a conflict between short-term self-interest and longer-term collective interest. The climate crisis requires paying costs today to benefit distant others (and oneself) in the future. The COVID-19 crisis requires the less vulnerable to pay costs to benefit the more vulnerable in the face of great uncertainty. The misinformation crisis requires investing effort to assess truth and abstain from spreading attractive falsehoods. Addressing these crises requires an understanding of human cooperation. To that end, we present (a) an overview of mechanisms for the evolution of cooperation, including mechanisms based on similarity and interaction; (b) a discussion of how reputation can incentivize cooperation via conditional cooperation and signaling; and (c) a review of social preferences that undergird the proximate psychology of cooperation, including positive regard for others, parochialism, and egalitarianism. We discuss the three focal crises facing our society through the lens of cooperation, emphasizing how cooperation research can inform our efforts to address them. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Psychology, Volume 73 is January 2022. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.

Investigating the Links Between Vaccination Against COVID-19 and Public Attitudes Toward Protective Countermeasures: Implications for Public Health

The COVID-19 pandemic caused by the novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, is spreading globally at an unprecedented rate. To protect the world against this devastating catastrophe, vaccines for SARS-CoV-2 have been produced following consistent clinical trials. However, the durability of a protective immune response due to vaccination has not been confirmed. Moreover, COVID-19 vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 is not 100% guaranteed, as new variants arise due to mutations. Consequently, health officials are pleading with the public to take extra precautions against the virus and continue wearing masks, wash hands, and observe physical distancing even after vaccination. The current research collected data from 4,540 participants (1,825 vaccinated and 2,715 not vaccinated) in China to analyze this phenomenon empirically. The propensity score matching (PSM) model is employed to analyze the impact of vaccination against COVID-19 on participants' attitudes toward protective countermeasures. The findings showed that gender, age, education level, occupation risk, individual health risk perception, public health risk perception, social responsibility, peer effect, and government supervision are the main drivers for participants to be vaccinated with COVID-19's vaccines. The results further show that vaccination lessened participants' frequency of hand washing by 1.75 times and their compliance frequency intensity of observing physical distancing by 1.24 times. However, the rate of mask-wearing did not reduce significantly, implying that China's main countermeasure of effective mask-wearing effectively controls COVID-19. Moreover, the findings indicate that a reduction in the frequency of hand washing and observing physical distance could cause a resurgence of COVID-19. In conclusion, factors leading to the eradication of SARS-CoV-2 from the world are complex to be achieved, so the exploration of COVID-19 vaccination and people's attitude toward protective countermeasures may provide insights for policymakers to encourage vaccinated people to follow protective health measures and help in completely defeating the COVID-19 from the globe.

The Effect of Vaccination Rates on the Infection of COVID-19 under the Vaccination Rate below the Herd Immunity Threshold

Although vaccination is carried out worldwide, the vaccination rate varies greatly. As of 24 May 2021, in some countries, the proportion of the population fully vaccinated against COVID-19 has exceeded 50%, but in many countries, this proportion is still very low, less than 1%. This article aims to explore the impact of vaccination on the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. As the herd immunity of almost all countries in the world has not been reached, several countries were selected as sample cases by employing the following criteria: more than 60 vaccine doses per 100 people and a population of more than one million people. In the end, a total of eight countries/regions were selected, including Israel, the UAE, Chile, the United Kingdom, the United States, Hungary, and Qatar. The results find that vaccination has a major impact on reducing infection rates in all countries. However, the infection rate after vaccination showed two trends. One is an inverted U-shaped trend, and the other is an L-shaped trend. For those countries with an inverted U-shaped trend, the infection rate begins to decline when the vaccination rate reaches 1.46–50.91 doses per 100 people.

Beyond political affiliation: an examination of the relationships between social factors and perceptions of and responses to COVID-19

A significant challenge in the United States’ response to COVID-19 continues to be wide variation in the extent to which individuals believe the virus is a credible health threat and are willing to undertake measures to protect personal and public health. In this study, data were collected from a national sample of 1141 participants from the United States to examine how beliefs and behavioral responses to COVID-19 have been shaped by sociopolitical characteristics. The relationships between social predictors; perceived severity, knowledge, and fear of the virus; and health behaviors were tested using path analysis. Social characteristics significantly predicted perceived severity, knowledge, and fear, as well as health behaviors, even after controlling for an objective indicator of the risk of contracting the virus. Our findings suggest that perceptions and knowledge of the virus, especially believing that the virus poses a serious threat to one’s individual health, are important determinants of behavior, but also that perceptions and knowledge are strongly driven by social and cultural factors above and beyond political affiliation.

Projected COVID-19 epidemic in the United States in the context of the effectiveness of a potential vaccine and implications for social distancing and face mask use

BACKGROUND

Multiple candidates of COVID-19 vaccines have entered Phase III clinical trials in the United States (US). There is growing optimism that social distancing restrictions and face mask requirements could be eased with widespread vaccine adoption soon.

METHODS

We developed a dynamic compartmental model of COVID-19 transmission for the four most severely affected states (New York, Texas, Florida, and California). We evaluated the vaccine effectiveness and coverage required to suppress the COVID-19 epidemic in scenarios when social contact was to return to pre-pandemic levels and face mask use was reduced. Daily and cumulative COVID-19 infection and death cases from 26th January to 15th September 2020 were obtained from the Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus resource center and used for model calibration.

RESULTS

Without a vaccine (scenario 1), the spread of COVID-19 could be suppressed in these states by maintaining strict social distancing measures and face mask use levels. But relaxing social distancing restrictions to the pre-pandemic level without changing the current face mask use would lead to a new COVID-19 outbreak, resulting in 0.8-4 million infections and 15,000-240,000 deaths across these four states over the next 12 months. Under this circumstance, introducing a vaccine (scenario 2) would partially offset this negative impact even if the vaccine effectiveness and coverage are relatively low. However, if face mask use is reduced by 50% (scenario 3), a vaccine that is only 50% effective (weak vaccine) would require coverage of 55-94% to suppress the epidemic in these states. A vaccine that is 80% effective (moderate vaccine) would only require 32-57% coverage to suppress the epidemic. In contrast, if face mask usage stops completely (scenario 4), a weak vaccine would not suppress the epidemic, and further major outbreaks would occur. A moderate vaccine with coverage of 48-78% or a strong vaccine (100% effective) with coverage of 33-58% would be required to suppress the epidemic. Delaying vaccination rollout for 1-2 months would not substantially alter the epidemic trend if the current non-pharmaceutical interventions are maintained.

CONCLUSIONS

The degree to which the US population can relax social distancing restrictions and face mask use will depend greatly on the effectiveness and coverage of a potential COVID-19 vaccine if future epidemics are to be prevented. Only a highly effective vaccine will enable the US population to return to life as it was before the pandemic.

Effects of New York's Executive Order on Face Mask Use on COVID-19 Infections and Mortality: A Modeling Study

There is growing evidence on the effect of face mask use in controlling the spread of COVID-19. However, few studies have examined the effect of local face mask policies on the pandemic. In this study, we developed a dynamic compartmental model of COVID-19 transmission in New York City (NYC), which was the epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA. We used data on daily and cumulative COVID-19 infections and deaths from the NYC Department of Health and Mental Hygiene to calibrate and validate our model. We then used the model to assess the effect of the executive order on face mask use on infections and deaths due to COVID-19 in NYC. Our results showed that the executive order on face mask use was estimated to avert 99,517 (95% CIs 72,723-126,312) COVID-19 infections and 7978 (5692-10,265) deaths in NYC. If the executive order was implemented 1 week earlier (on April 10), the averted infections and deaths would be 111,475 (81,593-141,356) and 9017 (6446-11,589), respectively. If the executive order was implemented 2 weeks earlier (on April 3 when the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommended face mask use), the averted infections and deaths would be 128,598 (94,373-162,824) and 10,515 (7540-13,489), respectively. Our study provides public health practitioners and policymakers with evidence on the importance of implementing face mask policies in local areas as early as possible to control the spread of COVID-19 and reduce mortality.

Evaluation of work resumption strategies after COVID-19 reopening in the Chinese city of Shenzhen: a mathematical modeling study

OBJECTIVES

As China is facing a potential second wave of the epidemic, we reviewed and evaluated the intervention measures implemented in a major metropolitan city, Shenzhen, during the early phase of Wuhan lockdown.

STUDY DESIGN

Based on the classic SEITR model and combined with population mobility, a compartmental model was constructed to simulate the transmission of COVID-19 and disease progression in the Shenzhen population.

METHODS

Based on published epidemiological data on COVID-19 and population mobility data from Baidu Qianxi, we constructed a compartmental model to evaluate the impact of work and traffic resumption on the epidemic in Shenzhen in various scenarios.

RESULTS

Imported cases account for most (58.6%) of the early reported cases in Shenzhen. We demonstrated that with strict inflow population control and a high level of mask usage after work resumption, various resumptions resulted in only an insignificant difference in the number of cumulative infections. Shenzhen may experience this second wave of infections approximately two weeks after the traffic resumption if the incidence risk in Hubei is high at the moment of resumption.

CONCLUSION

Regardless of the work resumption strategy adopted in Shenzhen, the risk of a resurgence of COVID-19 after its reopening was limited. The strict control of imported cases and extensive use of facial masks play a key role in COVID-19 prevention.

Control strategies for COVID-19 epidemic with vaccination, shield immunity and quarantine: A metric temporal logic approach

Ever since the outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic, various public health control strategies have been proposed and tested against the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2. We study three specific COVID-19 epidemic control models: the susceptible, exposed, infectious, recovered (SEIR) model with vaccination control; the SEIR model with shield immunity control; and the susceptible, un-quarantined infected, quarantined infected, confirmed infected (SUQC) model with quarantine control. We express the control requirement in metric temporal logic (MTL) formulas (a type of formal specification languages) which can specify the expected control outcomes such as "the deaths from the infection should never exceed one thousand per day within the next three months" or "the population immune from the disease should eventually exceed 200 thousand within the next 100 to 120 days". We then develop methods for synthesizing control strategies with MTL specifications. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first paper to systematically synthesize control strategies based on the COVID-19 epidemic models with formal specifications. We provide simulation results in three different case studies: vaccination control for the COVID-19 epidemic with model parameters estimated from data in Lombardy, Italy; shield immunity control for the COVID-19 epidemic with model parameters estimated from data in Lombardy, Italy; and quarantine control for the COVID-19 epidemic with model parameters estimated from data in Wuhan, China. The results show that the proposed synthesis approach can generate control inputs such that the time-varying numbers of individuals in each category (e.g., infectious, immune) satisfy the MTL specifications. The results also show that early intervention is essential in mitigating the spread of COVID-19, and more control effort is needed for more stringent MTL specifications. For example, based on the model in Lombardy, Italy, achieving less than 100 deaths per day and 10000 total deaths within 100 days requires 441.7% more vaccination control effort than achieving less than 1000 deaths per day and 50000 total deaths within 100 days.

Let’s do better: public representations of COVID-19 science

COVID science is being both done and circulated at a furious pace. While it is inspiring to see the research community responding so vigorously to the pandemic crisis, all this activity has also created a churning sea of bad data, conflicting results, and exaggerated headlines. With representations of science becoming increasingly polarized, twisted, and hyped, there is growing concern that the relevant science is being represented to the public in a manner that may cause confusion, inappropriate expectations, and the erosion of public trust. Here we explore some of the key issues associated with the representations of science in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. Many of these issues are not new. But the COVID-19 pandemic has placed a spotlight on the biomedical research process and amplified the adverse ramifications of poor public communication. We need to do better. As such, we conclude with 10 recommendations aimed at key actors involved in the communication of COVID-19 science, including government, funders, universities, publishers, media, and the research communities.

Correlation of COVID-19 Pandemic with Healthcare System Response and Prevention Measures in Saudi Arabia

BACKGROUND

The Saudi government has taken the decision to prevent the entrance of about 2.5 million international pilgrims seeking to perform hajj in order to protect the world from a catastrophic widespread of disease. Moreover, health systems in Saudi Arabia are offering free testing for residents whether Saudi and non-Saudi.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to evaluate the spread of COVID-19 associated with preventive measures taken in Saudi Arabia and to develop a detailed COVID-19 prevention strategy as a framework for the Saudi Arabia community.

METHODOLOGY

Population size and age distributions among the country of Saudi Arabia were taken from the 2020 World Population Prospects. Contact patterns were measured using the Saudi Arabia Ministry of Health Statistical Annual Report.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study demonstrates that performing screening tests as early as possible to facilitate the rapid detection of infected cases, fast treatment, and instant isolation for suspected cases is the most definitive rejoinder for public health. Moreover, our study revealed the significance of performing preventive measures in reducing infection and death rates around Saudi Arabia by 27%, while in other countries, it reduced the death rate ranging from 10-73%. This study provides an achievable strategy for prevention and early detection of COVID-19 spread.