Uncertainty surrounding projections of the long-term impact of ivermectin treatment on human onchocerciasis

Impact of annual community-directed treatment with ivermectin on the incidence of epilepsy in Mvolo, a two-year prospective study

OBJECTIVES

The potential impact of cumulative community-directed treatment with ivermectin (CDTI) on epilepsy epidemiology in Mvolo County, South Sudan, an onchocerciasis-endemic area with high epilepsy prevalence, was investigated. Annual CDTI was introduced in 2002 in Mvolo, with interruptions in 2016 and 2020.

METHODS

Comprehensive house-to-house surveys in Mvolo (June 2020 and 2022) identified cases of epilepsy, including probable nodding syndrome (pNS). Community workers screened households in selected sites for suspected epilepsy, and medical doctors confirmed the diagnosis and determined the year of seizure onset. The incidence of epilepsy, including pNS, was analysed using 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Data on ivermectin intake and onchocerciasis-associated manifestations (itching and blindness) were collected.

RESULTS

The surveys covered 15,755 (2020) and 15,092 (2022) individuals, identifying 809 (5.2%, 95% CI: 4.8-5.5%) and 672 (4.5%, 95% CI: 4.1-4.8%) epilepsy cases, respectively. Each survey reported that a third of the surveyed population experienced skin itching, and 3% were blind. Epilepsy incidence per 100,000 person-years gradually declined, from 326.5 (95% CI: 266.8-399.1) in 2013-2015 to 96.6 (95% CI: 65.5-141.7) in 2019-2021. Similarly, pNS incidence per 100,000 person-years decreased from 151.7 (95% CI: 112.7-203.4) to 27.0 (95% CI: 12.5-55.5). Coverage of CDTI was suboptimal, reaching only 64.0% of participants in 2019 and falling to 24.1% in 2021 following an interruption in 2020 due to COVID-19 restrictions. Additionally, while 99.4% of cases had active epilepsy in 2022, less than a quarter of these had access to antiseizure medication.

CONCLUSIONS

The observed decrease in epilepsy incidence despite suboptimal CDTI coverage highlights the potential impact of onchocerciasis control efforts and underscores the need to strengthen these efforts in Mvolo County and across South Sudan. As a proactive measure, Mvolo and neighbouring counties are transitioning to biannual CDTI. Furthermore, the substantial epilepsy treatment gap in Mvolo should be addressed.

Repurposed Drugs That Activate Autophagy in Filarial Worms Act as Effective Macrofilaricides

Onchocerciasis and lymphatic filariasis are two neglected tropical diseases caused by filarial nematodes that utilize insect vectors for transmission to their human hosts. Current control strategies are based on annual or biannual mass drug administration (MDA) of the drugs Ivermectin or Ivermectin plus Albendazole, respectively. These drug regimens kill the first-stage larvae of filarial worms (i.e., microfilariae) and interrupt the transmission of infections. MDA programs for these microfilaricidal drugs must be given over the lifetime of the filarial adult worms, which can reach 15 years in the case of Onchocerca volvulus. This is problematic because of suboptimal responses to ivermectin in various endemic regions and inefficient reduction of transmission even after decades of MDA. There is an urgent need for the development of novel alternative treatments to support the 2030 elimination goals of onchocerciasis and lymphatic filariasis. One successful approach has been to target Wolbachia, obligatory endosymbiotic bacteria on which filarial worms are dependent for their survival and reproduction within the human host. A 4-6-week antibiotic therapy with doxycycline, for example, resulted in the loss of Wolbachia that subsequently led to extensive apoptosis of somatic cells, germline, embryos, and microfilariae, as well as inhibition of fourth-stage larval development. However, this long-course regimen has limited use in MDA programs. As an alternative approach to the use of bacteriostatic antibiotics, in this study, we focused on autophagy-inducing compounds, which we hypothesized could disturb various pathways involved in the interdependency between Wolbachia and filarial worms. We demonstrated that several such compounds, including Niclosamide, an FDA-approved drug, Niclosamide ethanolamine (NEN), and Rottlerin, a natural product derived from Kamala trees, significantly reduced the levels of Wolbachia in vitro. Moreover, when these compounds were used in vivo to treat Brugia pahangi-infected gerbils, Niclosamide and NEN significantly decreased adult worm survival, reduced the release of microfilariae, and decreased embryonic development depending on the regimen and dose used. All three drugs given orally significantly reduced Wolbachia loads and induced an increase in levels of lysosome-associated membrane protein in worms from treated animals, suggesting that Niclosamide, NEN, and Rottlerin were effective in causing drug-induced autophagy in these filarial worms. These repurposed drugs provide a new avenue for the clearance of adult worms in filarial infections.

Historical overview and geographical distribution of neglected tropical diseases amenable to preventive chemotherapy in the Republic of the Congo: A systematic review

Background

Neglected Tropical Diseases amenable to Preventive Chemotherapy (PC-NTDs) affect the poorest populations around the world, especially in Africa. Scientific information on the distribution and level of endemicity of these diseases in the Republic of the Congo (RoC) is scarce in the published literature. We sought to collect all available epidemiological data on PC-NTDs in the RoC to document the historical and current situation and identify challenges in reaching the elimination of NTDs.

Methods

We searched Medline and Horizon databases for studies published until to July 4^th, 2019, on onchocerciasis, lymphatic filariasis, soil-transmitted helminth infections, schistosomiasis, and trachoma in the RoC. Unpublished reports were also reviewed. We included all epidemiological studies containing community data and excluded case reports. Location, prevalence data, and dates of the studies were extracted.

Principal findings

We identified 933 records, of which 56 met the inclusion criteria. The articles published before 1960 mainly concerned onchocerciasis and schistosomiasis. Despite a low number over the studied period, since 2005 there has been a steady increase in the number of publications. Most of the studies were cross-sectional and conducted in the general population. Trachoma is endemic in the Sangha and Likouala departments (prevalence of trachomatous inflammation-follicular > 5% in some villages), and further mapping is essential to properly assess the burden of this disease in the country. While the prevalence of soil-transmitted helminths is still high (over 20%) in a large part of Congo, cases of lymphatic filariasis (based on Wuchereria bancrofti antigenaemia and/or microfilaraemia) and onchocerciasis are becoming rare and very focused. To achieve the elimination of PC-NTDs, further intervention is required.

Conclusions

Except for trachoma, whose epidemiological situation should be better evaluated, PC-NTDs are endemic in the RoC, and actions to control them have been taken by health authorities. To eliminate PC-NTDs, which are still present in some locations, new mapping surveys are needed, and increased investment in scientific research should be encouraged in the country.

For many years, the Republic of the Congo has implemented control programs to combat neglected tropical diseases that cause severe disabilities. By tracing the past and recent distribution of these diseases through the analysis of epidemiological studies, we show that most remaining NTDs are located in defined foci of infection, maintained depending on ecology and lifestyle habits. However, the small number of recent studies limits the production of new knowledge, which would be useful for a better understanding of epidemiological patterns and to accelerate NTD elimination.

Advancing a Human Onchocerciasis Vaccine From Antigen Discovery to Efficacy Studies Against Natural Infection of Cattle With Onchocerca ochengi

Human onchocerciasis is a devastating neglected tropical disease caused by infection of the filarial nematode Onchocerca volvulus. The infection can cause irreversible visual impairment or blindness and stigmatizing dermatitis. More than 32 million people were estimated to be infected with O. volvulus in Africa, and 385,000 suffered from blindness. Even though the implementation of mass drug administration (MDA) with ivermectin has reduced the global prevalence of onchocerciasis, O. volvulus infection remains challenging to control because MDA with ivermectin cannot be implemented in endemic areas co-endemic with loiasis due to the risk of severe adverse events. There is also emerging drug resistance to ivermectin that further complicates the elimination of onchocerciasis. Thus, the development of a vaccine that would induce protective immunity and reduce infection burden is essential. Efforts to develop prophylactic and/or therapeutic vaccines for onchocerciasis have been explored since the late 1980s by many researchers and entities, and here we summarize the recent advances made in the development of vaccines against the infection of O. volvulus and onchocerciasis.

A qPCR to quantify Wolbachia from few Onchocerca volvulus microfilariae as a surrogate for adult worm histology in clinical trials of antiwolbachial drugs

The filarial nematode Onchocerca volvulus causes onchocerciasis (river blindness), a neglected tropical disease affecting 21 million people, mostly in Sub-Saharan Africa. Targeting the endosymbiont Wolbachia with antibiotics leads to permanent sterilization and killing of adult worms. The gold standard to assess Wolbachia depletion is the histological examination of adult worms in nodules beginning at 6 months post-treatment. However, nodules can only be used once, limiting the time points to monitor Wolbachia depletion. A diagnostic to longitudinally monitor Wolbachia depletion from microfilariae (MF) at more frequent intervals < 6 months post-treatment would accelerate clinical trials of antiwolbachials. We developed a TaqMan qPCR amplifying the single-copy gene wOvftsZ to quantify Wolbachia from as few as one MF that had migrated from skin biopsies and compared quantification using circular and linearized plasmids or synthetic dsDNA (gBlock®). qPCR for MF from the rodent nematode Litomosoides sigmodontis was used to support the reproducibility and validate the principle. The qPCR using as few as 2 MF from O. volvulus and L. sigmodontis reproducibly quantified Wolbachia. Use of a linearized plasmid standard or synthesized dsDNA resulted in numbers of Wolbachia/MF congruent with biologically plausible estimates in O. volvulus and L. sigmodontis MF. The qPCR assay yielded a median of 48.8 (range 1.5-280.5) Wolbachia/O. volvulus MF. The qPCR is a sensitive tool for quantifying Wolbachia in a few MF from skin biopsies and allows for establishing the qPCR as a surrogate parameter for monitoring Wolbachia depletion in adult worms of new antiwolbachial candidates.

An Integrated Approach to Identify New Anti-Filarial Leads to Treat River Blindness, a Neglected Tropical Disease

Filarial worms cause multiple debilitating diseases in millions of people worldwide, including river blindness. Currently available drugs reduce transmission by killing larvae (microfilariae), but there are no effective cures targeting the adult parasites (macrofilaricides) which survive and reproduce in the host for very long periods. To identify effective macrofilaricides, we carried out phenotypic screening of a library of 2121 approved drugs for clinical use against adult Brugia pahangi and prioritized the hits for further studies by integrating those results with a computational prioritization of drugs and associated targets. This resulted in the identification of 18 hits with anti-macrofilaricidal activity, of which two classes, azoles and aspartic protease inhibitors, were further expanded upon. Follow up screening against Onchocerca spp. (adult Onchocerca ochengi and pre-adult O. volvulus) confirmed activity for 13 drugs (the majority having IC50 < 10 μM), and a counter screen of a subset against L. loa microfilariae showed the potential to identify selective drugs that prevent adverse events when co-infected individuals are treated. Stage specific activity was also observed. Many of these drugs are amenable to structural optimization, and also have known canonical targets, making them promising candidates for further optimization that can lead to identifying and characterizing novel anti-macrofilarial drugs.

Corallopyronin A for short-course anti-wolbachial, macrofilaricidal treatment of filarial infections

Current efforts to eliminate the neglected tropical diseases onchocerciasis and lymphatic filariasis, caused by the filarial nematodes Onchocerca volvulus and Wuchereria bancrofti or Brugia spp., respectively, are hampered by lack of a short-course macrofilaricidal–adult-worm killing–treatment. Anti-wolbachial antibiotics, e.g. doxycycline, target the essential Wolbachia endosymbionts of filariae and are a safe prototype adult-worm-sterilizing and macrofilaricidal regimen, in contrast to standard treatments with ivermectin or diethylcarbamazine, which mainly target the microfilariae. However, treatment regimens of 4–5 weeks necessary for doxycycline and contraindications limit its use. Therefore, we tested the preclinical anti-Wolbachia drug candidate Corallopyronin A (CorA) for in vivo efficacy during initial and chronic filarial infections in the Litomosoides sigmodontis rodent model. CorA treatment for 14 days beginning immediately after infection cleared >90% of Wolbachia endosymbionts from filariae and prevented development into adult worms. CorA treatment of patently infected microfilaremic gerbils for 14 days with 30 mg/kg twice a day (BID) achieved a sustained reduction of >99% of Wolbachia endosymbionts from adult filariae and microfilariae, followed by complete inhibition of filarial embryogenesis resulting in clearance of microfilariae. Combined treatment of CorA and albendazole, a drug currently co-administered during mass drug administrations and previously shown to enhance efficacy of anti-Wolbachia drugs, achieved microfilarial clearance after 7 days of treatment at a lower BID dose of 10 mg/kg CorA, a Human Equivalent Dose of 1.4 mg/kg. Importantly, this combination led to a significant reduction in the adult worm burden, which has not yet been published with other anti-Wolbachia candidates tested in this model. In summary, CorA is a preclinical candidate for filariasis, which significantly reduces treatment times required to achieve sustained Wolbachia depletion, clearance of microfilariae, and inhibition of embryogenesis. In combination with albendazole, CorA is robustly macrofilaricidal after 7 days of treatment and fulfills the Target Product Profile for a macrofilaricidal drug.

Infections with filarial roundworms can cause the disfiguring human neglected tropical diseases onchocerciasis and lymphatic filariasis. Treatment of these diseases is limited, as there is no well-tolerated treatment available that kills the adult worms after a short-term regimen. Thus, mass drug administrations (MDA) are performed with drugs that temporarily clear the microfilariae, the filarial offspring, to inhibit the transmission of the disease. As these MDA treatments have to be given 1–2 times per year for many years, the goal to eliminate onchocerciasis and lymphatic filariasis is hampered. In the present study we investigated a novel preclinical candidate for the treatment of filariasis. Corallopyronin A (CorA) is a natural compound that clears the essential Wolbachia endobacteria of filariae. Using the Litomosoides sigmodontis rodent model of filariasis we demonstrated that 2 weeks of CorA treatment clears Wolbachia endosymbionts in vivo, leading to a maintained clearance of microfilariae by inhibition of filarial embryogenesis. Combination therapy of CorA with the MDA drug albendazole allowed lower CorA doses and shortened treatment to 7 days. More importantly, it also led to the death of the adult filariae. Portfolios (Target Product Profiles) of new drugs against filariae should show adult killing efficacy like CorA.

Moxidectin: an oral treatment for human onchocerciasis

INTRODUCTION

Moxidectin is a milbemycin endectocide recently approved for the treatment of human onchocerciasis. Onchocerciasis, earmarked for elimination of transmission, is a filarial infection endemic in Africa, Yemen, and the Amazonian focus straddling Venezuela and Brazil. Concerns over whether the predominant treatment strategy (yearly mass drug administration (MDA) of ivermectin) is sufficient to achieve elimination in all endemic foci have refocussed attention upon alternative treatments. Moxidectin's stronger and longer microfilarial suppression compared to ivermectin in both phase II and III clinical trials indicates its potential as a novel powerful drug for onchocerciasis elimination.

AREAS COVERED

This work summarizes the chemistry and pharmacology of moxidectin, reviews the phase II and III clinical trials evidence on tolerability, safety, and efficacy of moxidectin versus ivermectin, and discusses the implications of moxidectin's current regulatory status.

EXPERT OPINION

Moxidectin's superior clinical performance has the potential to substantially reduce times to elimination compared to ivermectin. If donated, moxidectin could mitigate the additional programmatic costs of biannual ivermectin distribution because, unlike other alternatives, it can use the existing community-directed treatment infrastructure. A pediatric indication (for children <12 years) and determination of its usefulness in onchocerciasis-loiasis co-endemic areas will greatly help fulfill the potential of moxidectin for the treatment and elimination of onchocerciasis.

Genomic Epidemiology in Filarial Nematodes: Transforming the Basis for Elimination Program Decisions

Onchocerciasis and lymphatic filariasis are targeted for elimination, primarily using mass drug administration at the country and community levels. Elimination of transmission is the onchocerciasis target and global elimination as a public health problem is the end point for lymphatic filariasis. Where program duration, treatment coverage, and compliance are sufficiently high, elimination is achievable for both parasites within defined geographic areas. However, transmission has re-emerged after apparent elimination in some areas, and in others has continued despite years of mass drug treatment. A critical question is whether this re-emergence and/or persistence of transmission is due to persistence of local parasites-i.e., the result of insufficient duration or drug coverage, poor parasite response to the drugs, or inadequate methods of assessment and/or criteria for determining when to stop treatment-or due to re-introduction of parasites via human or vector movement from another endemic area. We review recent genetics-based research exploring these questions in Onchocerca volvulus, the filarial nematode that causes onchocerciasis, and Wuchereria bancrofti, the major pathogen for lymphatic filariasis. We focus in particular on the combination of genomic epidemiology and genome-wide associations to delineate transmission zones and distinguish between local and introduced parasites as the source of resurgence or continuing transmission, and to identify genetic markers associated with parasite response to chemotherapy. Our ultimate goal is to assist elimination efforts by developing easy-to-use tools that incorporate genetic information about transmission and drug response for more effective mass drug distribution, surveillance strategies, and decisions on when to stop interventions to improve sustainability of elimination.

The World Health Organization 2030 goals for onchocerciasis: Insights and perspectives from mathematical modelling: NTD Modelling Consortium Onchocerciasis Group

The World Health Organization (WHO) has embarked on a consultation process to refine the 2030 goals for priority neglected tropical diseases (NTDs), onchocerciasis among them. Current goals include elimination of transmission (EOT) by 2020 in Latin America, Yemen and selected African countries. The new goals propose that, by 2030, EOT be verified in 10 countries; mass drug administration (MDA) with ivermectin be stopped in at least one focus in 34 countries; and that the proportion of the population no longer in need of MDA be equal or greater than 25%, 50%, 75% and 100% in at least 16, 14, 12, and 10 countries, respectively. The NTD Modelling Consortium onchocerciasis teams have used EPIONCHO and ONCHOSIM to provide modelling insights into these goals. EOT appears feasible in low-moderate endemic areas with long-term MDA at high coverage (≥75%), but uncertain in areas of higher endemicity, poor coverage and adherence, and where MDA has not yet, or only recently, started. Countries will have different proportions of their endemic areas classified according to these categories, and this distribution of pre-intervention prevalence and MDA duration and programmatic success will determine the feasibility of achieving the proposed MDA cessation goals. Highly endemic areas would benefit from switching to biannual or quarterly MDA and implementing vector control where possible (determining optimal frequency and duration of anti-vectorial interventions requires more research). Areas without loiasis that have not yet initiated MDA should implement biannual (preferably with moxidectin) or quarterly MDA from the start. Areas with loiasis not previously treated would benefit from implementing test-and(not)-treat-based interventions, vector control, and anti- Wolbachia therapies, but their success will depend on the levels of screening and coverage achieved and sustained. The diagnostic performance of IgG4 Ov16 serology for assessing EOT is currently uncertain. Verification of EOT requires novel diagnostics at the individual- and population-levels.

MicroRNAs in Ocular Infection

MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are small, non-coding, regulatory RNA molecules and constitute a newly recognized, important layer of gene-expression regulation at post-transcriptional levels. miRNAs quantitatively fine tune the expression of their downstream genes in a cell type- and developmental stage-specific fashion. miRNAs have been proven to play important roles in the normal development and function as well as in the pathogenesis of diseases in all tissues and organ systems. miRNAs have emerged as new therapeutic targets and biomarkers for treatment and diagnosis of various diseases. Although miRNA research in ocular infection remains in its early stages, a handful of pioneering studies have provided insight into the roles of miRNAs in the pathogenesis of parasitic, fungal, bacterial, and viral ocular infections. Here, we review the current status of research in miRNAs in several major ocular infectious diseases. We predict that the field of miRNAs in ocular infection will greatly expand with the discovery of novel miRNA-involved molecular mechanisms that will inform development of new therapies and identify novel diagnostic biomarkers.

Efficacy of subcutaneous doses and a new oral amorphous solid dispersion formulation of flubendazole on male jirds (Meriones unguiculatus) infected with the filarial nematode Brugia pahangi

River blindness and lymphatic filariasis are two filarial diseases that globally affect millions of people mostly in impoverished countries. Current mass drug administration programs rely on drugs that primarily target the microfilariae, which are released from adult female worms. The female worms can live for several years, releasing millions of microfilariae throughout the course of infection. Thus, to stop transmission of infection and shorten the time to elimination of these diseases, a safe and effective drug that kills the adult stage is needed. The benzimidazole anthelmintic flubendazole (FBZ) is 100% efficacious as a macrofilaricide in experimental filarial rodent models but it must be administered subcutaneously (SC) due to its low oral bioavailability. Studies were undertaken to assess the efficacy of a new oral amorphous solid dispersion (ASD) formulation of FBZ on Brugia pahangi infected jirds (Meriones unguiculatus) and compare it to a single or multiple doses of FBZ given subcutaneously. Results showed that worm burden was not significantly decreased in animals given oral doses of ASD FBZ (0.2-15 mg/kg). Regardless, doses as low as 1.5 mg/kg caused extensive ultrastructural damage to developing embryos and microfilariae (mf). SC injections of FBZ in suspension (10 mg/kg) given for 5 days however, eliminated all worms in all animals, and a single SC injection reduced worm burden by 63% compared to the control group. In summary, oral doses of ASD formulated FBZ did not significantly reduce total worm burden but longer treatments, extended takedown times or a second dosing regimen, may decrease female fecundity and the number of mf shed by female worms.

Modelling the elimination of river blindness using long-term epidemiological and programmatic data from Mali and Senegal

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Onchocerciasis is earmarked for elimination in some African countries by 2020/2025.

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15+ years of ivermectin treatment drove infection prevalence to zero in areas of Mali & Senegal.

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Data-driven model projections are used to evaluate the risk of infection resurgence.

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Latent infections can initiate slow resurgence in communities with high transmission propensity.

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Highly sensitive and long-term surveillance will be necessary to verify elimination.

The onchocerciasis transmission models EPIONCHO and ONCHOSIM have been independently developed and used to explore the feasibility of eliminating onchocerciasis from Africa with mass (annual or biannual) distribution of ivermectin within the timeframes proposed by the World Health Organization (WHO) and endorsed by the 2012 London Declaration on Neglected Tropical Diseases (i.e. by 2020/2025). Based on the findings of our previous model comparison, we implemented technical refinements and tested the projections of EPIONCHO and ONCHOSIM against long-term epidemiological data from two West African transmission foci in Mali and Senegal where the observed prevalence of infection was brought to zero circa 2007–2009 after 15–17 years of mass ivermectin treatment. We simulated these interventions using programmatic information on the frequency and coverage of mass treatments and trained the model projections using longitudinal parasitological data from 27 communities, evaluating the projected outcome of elimination (local parasite extinction) or resurgence. We found that EPIONCHO and ONCHOSIM captured adequately the epidemiological trends during mass treatment but that resurgence, while never predicted by ONCHOSIM, was predicted by EPIONCHO in some communities with the highest (inferred) vector biting rates and associated pre-intervention endemicities. Resurgence can be extremely protracted such that low (microfilarial) prevalence between 1% and 5% can be maintained for 3–5 years before manifesting more prominently. We highlight that post-treatment and post-elimination surveillance protocols must be implemented for long enough and with high enough sensitivity to detect possible residual latent infections potentially indicative of resurgence. We also discuss uncertainty and differences between EPIONCHO and ONCHOSIM projections, the potential importance of vector control in high-transmission settings as a complementary intervention strategy, and the short remaining timeline for African countries to be ready to stop treatment safely and begin surveillance in order to meet the impending 2020/2025 elimination targets.

Macrofilaricidal Efficacy of Repeated Doses of Ivermectin for the Treatment of River Blindness

Background

Mass drug administration (MDA) with ivermectin is the cornerstone of efforts to eliminate human onchocerciasis by 2020 or 2025. The feasibility of elimination crucially depends on the effects of multiple ivermectin doses on Onchocerca volvulus. A single ivermectin (standard) dose clears the skin-dwelling microfilarial progeny of adult worms (macrofilariae) and temporarily impedes the release of such progeny by female macrofilariae, but a macrofilaricidal effect has been deemed minimal. Multiple doses of ivermectin may cumulatively and permanently reduce the fertility and shorten the lifespan of adult females. However, rigorous quantification of these effects necessitates interrogating longitudinal data on macrofilariae with suitably powerful analytical techniques.

Methods

Using a novel mathematical modeling approach, we analyzed, at an individual participant level, longitudinal data on viability and fertility of female worms from the single most comprehensive multiple-dose clinical trial of ivermectin, comparing 3-monthly with annual treatments administered for 3 years in Cameroon.

Results

Multiple doses of ivermectin have a partial macrofilaricidal and a modest permanent sterilizing effect after 4 or more consecutive treatments, even at routine MDA doses (150 µg/kg) and frequencies (annual). The life expectancy of adult O. volvulus is reduced by approximately 50% and 70% after 3 years of annual or 3-monthly (quarterly) exposures to ivermectin.

Conclusions

Our quantification of macrofilaricidal and sterilizing effects of ivermectin should be incorporated into transmission models to inform onchocerciasis elimination efforts in Africa and residual foci in Latin America. It also provides a framework to assess macrofilaricidal candidate drugs currently under development.

Genome-wide analysis of ivermectin response by Onchocerca volvulus reveals that genetic drift and soft selective sweeps contribute to loss of drug sensitivity

Background

Treatment of onchocerciasis using mass ivermectin administration has reduced morbidity and transmission throughout Africa and Central/South America. Mass drug administration is likely to exert selection pressure on parasites, and phenotypic and genetic changes in several Onchocerca volvulus populations from Cameroon and Ghana—exposed to more than a decade of regular ivermectin treatment—have raised concern that sub-optimal responses to ivermectin's anti-fecundity effect are becoming more frequent and may spread.

Methodology/Principal findings

Pooled next generation sequencing (Pool-seq) was used to characterise genetic diversity within and between 108 adult female worms differing in ivermectin treatment history and response. Genome-wide analyses revealed genetic variation that significantly differentiated good responder (GR) and sub-optimal responder (SOR) parasites. These variants were not randomly distributed but clustered in ~31 quantitative trait loci (QTLs), with little overlap in putative QTL position and gene content between the two countries. Published candidate ivermectin SOR genes were largely absent in these regions; QTLs differentiating GR and SOR worms were enriched for genes in molecular pathways associated with neurotransmission, development, and stress responses. Finally, single worm genotyping demonstrated that geographic isolation and genetic change over time (in the presence of drug exposure) had a significantly greater role in shaping genetic diversity than the evolution of SOR.

Conclusions/Significance

This study is one of the first genome-wide association analyses in a parasitic nematode, and provides insight into the genomics of ivermectin response and population structure of O. volvulus. We argue that ivermectin response is a polygenically-determined quantitative trait (QT) whereby identical or related molecular pathways but not necessarily individual genes are likely to determine the extent of ivermectin response in different parasite populations. Furthermore, we propose that genetic drift rather than genetic selection of SOR is the underlying driver of population differentiation, which has significant implications for the emergence and potential spread of SOR within and between these parasite populations.

Onchocerciasis is a human parasitic disease endemic across large areas of Sub-Saharan Africa, where more than 99% of the estimated 100 million people globally at-risk live. The microfilarial stage of Onchocerca volvulus causes pathologies ranging from mild itching to visual impairment and ultimately, irreversible blindness. Mass administration of ivermectin kills microfilariae and has an anti-fecundity effect on adult worms by temporarily inhibiting the development in utero and/or release into the skin of new microfilariae, thereby reducing morbidity and transmission. Phenotypic and genetic changes in some parasite populations that have undergone multiple ivermectin treatments in Cameroon and Ghana have raised concern that sub-optimal response to ivermectin's anti-fecundity effect may increase in frequency, reducing the impact of ivermectin-based control measures. We used next generation sequencing of small pools of parasites to define genome-wide genetic differences between phenotypically characterised good and sub-optimal responder parasites from Cameroon and Ghana, and identified multiple regions of the genome that differentiated the response types. These regions were largely different between parasites from these two countries but revealed common molecular pathways that might be involved in determining the extent of response to ivermectin's anti-fecundity effect. These data reveal a more complex than previously described pattern of genetic diversity among O. volvulus populations that differ in their geography and response to ivermectin treatment.

MODELING THE INFECTION DYNAMICS OF ONCHOCERCIASIS AND ITS TREATMENT

Onchocerciasis is one of the neglected tropical diseases caused by Onchocerca volvulus. Ivermectin is known to be effective in the treatment of onchocerciasis because it suppresses the production of microfilariae by the adult female worms for a few months following treatment thus reducing transmission. In this study, a deterministic model is developed to assess the effect of mass treatment of onchocerciasis with ivermectin. The basic reproduction number, [Formula: see text], of the model system is determined and it is observed that the model exhibits backward bifurcation for some parameters implying the existence of multiple endemic equilibria when [Formula: see text]. The existence of multiple equilibria emphasizes the fact that [Formula: see text] is not sufficient to eradicate the disease and the need is to lower [Formula: see text] much below one to make the disease-free equilibrium globally stable. Numerical simulations are done and conclusions drawn with respect to the known treatment protocols in endemic areas. The study results suggest that the mass treatment of the disease with ivermectin should cover a higher proportion of the population to control the disease and eventually eliminate it from the population.

Measuring and modelling the effects of systematic non-adherence to mass drug administration

It is well understood that the success or failure of a mass drug administration campaign critically depends on the level of coverage achieved. To that end coverage levels are often closely scrutinised during campaigns and the response to underperforming campaigns is to attempt to improve coverage. Modelling work has indicated, however, that the quality of the coverage achieved may also have a significant impact on the outcome. If the coverage achieved is likely to miss similar people every round then this can have a serious detrimental effect on the campaign outcome. We begin by reviewing the current modelling descriptions of this effect and introduce a new modelling framework that can be used to simulate a given level of systematic non-adherence. We formalise the likelihood that people may miss several rounds of treatment using the correlation in the attendance of different rounds. Using two very simplified models of the infection of helminths and non-helminths, respectively, we demonstrate that the modelling description used and the correlation included between treatment rounds can have a profound effect on the time to elimination of disease in a population. It is therefore clear that more detailed coverage data is required to accurately predict the time to disease elimination. We review published coverage data in which individuals are asked how many previous rounds they have attended, and show how this information may be used to assess the level of systematic non-adherence. We note that while the coverages in the data found range from 40.5% to 95.5%, still the correlations found lie in a fairly narrow range (between 0.2806 and 0.5351). This indicates that the level of systematic non-adherence may be similar even in data from different years, countries, diseases and administered drugs.

Factors affecting onchocerciasis transmission: lessons for infection control

INTRODUCTION

Onchocerca volvulus infects in excess of 15 million people. The vectors are Simulium blackflies, varieties of which differ in their ecologies, behavior and vectorial abilities. Control of the vectors and mass administrations of ivermectin have succeeded in reducing prevalences with elimination achieved in some foci, particularly in Central and southern America. In Africa, progress towards elimination has been less successful. Areas covered: Even with community directed treatment with ivermectin (CDTI), control has been difficult in African areas with initial prevalences in excess of 55%, especially if only annual treatments are dispensed. This is partly attributable to insufficient coverage, but the appearance of incipiently resistant non-responding parasites and lack of attention to vector biology in modeling and planning outcomes of intervention programmes have also played their parts, with recrudescence now appearing in some treated areas. Expert commentary: The biology of onchocerciasis is complex involving different vectors with differing abilities to transmit parasites, diverse pathologies related to geographical and parasite variations and endosymbionts in both parasite and vector. Modeling to predict epidemiological and control outcomes is addressing this complexity but more attention needs to be given to the vectors' roles to further understanding of where and when control measures will succeed.

Modelling Anti-Ov16 IgG4 Antibody Prevalence as an Indicator for Evaluation and Decision Making in Onchocerciasis Elimination Programmes

BACKGROUND

Onchocerciasis is targeted for elimination in Africa through annual or biannual ivermectin mass drug administration (MDA). An immunodiagnostic test, based on the detection of human IgG4 antibodies in the blood to the Onchocerca volvulus-specific antigen Ov16, is one of the recommended tools for determining whether transmission is interrupted and mass treatment can stop. For different transmission settings, the relationship between post-MDA Ov16 antibody prevalence in children (measured 1 year after the last round of MDA) and the duration and coverage of MDA, the mf prevalence in the population, and the probability that onchocerciasis is eventually eliminated is explored through mathematical modelling.

METHODOLOGY

The ONCHOSIM model was extended with new output on the Ov16 antibody serostatus of individuals. Seroconversion was assumed to be triggered by the first worm establishing in the host, with seroconversion occurring either before maturation, after maturation or only after the start of mf production. We are mainly interested in seroconversion rates in children, and for now ignore the possibility of seroreversion to simplify the model.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Yearly repeated MDA leads to a strong reduction in the parasite acquisition rate in humans. This reduces the seroconversion rate in newborns and young children, while those who seroconverted before the start of control remain antibody positive. Both the microfiladermia prevalence in the population aged 5 years and above and the Ov16 antibody prevalence in children under 10 declined with increasing duration of MDA. The association between either of these indicators and the model-predicted probability of elimination was not influenced much by the assumed treatment coverage levels, but was found to depend on baseline endemicity levels, assumptions regarding the trigger of seroconversion, and diagnostic test characteristics (sensitivity and specificity).

CONCLUSIONS

Better understanding of the dynamics of Ov16 antibody responses is required for accurate interpretation of seroprevalence data and more precise estimation of endpoint for MDA. Our study demonstrates that this endpoint will be dependent on baseline endemicity levels, which should be taken into account in guidelines for defining when to stop MDA.

The genome of Onchocerca volvulus, agent of river blindness

Human onchocerciasis is a serious neglected tropical disease caused by the filarial nematode Onchocerca volvulus that can lead to blindness and chronic disability. Control of the disease relies largely on mass administration of a single drug, and the development of new drugs and vaccines depends on a better knowledge of parasite biology. Here, we describe the chromosomes of O. volvulus and its Wolbachia endosymbiont. We provide the highest-quality sequence assembly for any parasitic nematode to date, giving a glimpse into the evolution of filarial parasite chromosomes and proteomes. This resource was used to investigate gene families with key functions that could be potentially exploited as targets for future drugs. Using metabolic reconstruction of the nematode and its endosymbiont, we identified enzymes that are likely to be essential for O. volvulus viability. In addition, we have generated a list of proteins that could be targeted by Federal-Drug-Agency-approved but repurposed drugs, providing starting points for anti-onchocerciasis drug development.

Factors Associated with Ivermectin Non-Compliance and Its Potential Role in Sustaining Onchocerca volvulus Transmission in the West Region of Cameroon

Background

Community Directed Treatment with ivermectin is the cornerstone of current efforts to eliminate onchocerciasis. However recent studies suggest there are foci where long-term annual distribution of the drug alone has failed to ensure elimination thresholds are reached. It is important to achieve high levels of compliance in order to obtain elimination targets. An epidemiological and entomological evaluation conducted in the western region of Cameroon in 2011 revealed that two health districts remained with a high prevalence of infection, despite long-term distribution of ivermectin since 1996. This paper explores potential factors that may have contributed to the non-interruption of transmission, focusing on ivermectin treatment compliance and the importance of systematic non-compliance within the population.

Methodology/Principal findings

A mixed methods approach was used, including a population-based survey to assess treatment compliance and factors associated and qualitative assessments including focus group discussions and in-depth interviews with key programme stakeholders and drug distributors. Compliance was reported at 71.2% (95%CI: 61.7–79.2%;n = 853/1198). The key factors related to compliance in the most recent round related to either programmatic and delivery issues, primarily absenteeism at the time of the campaign or alternatively individual determinants. An individual’s experience of side effects in the past was strongly associated with non-compliance to ivermectin. Other factors included ethnicity, how long lived in the village and age. There was a high percentage of reported systematic non-compliance at 7.4% (95% CI: 4.3–12.3%; n = 86/1165), higher amongst females. This group may be important in facilitating the sustainment of on-going transmission.

Conclusions/Significance

Efforts to reduce the number of systematic non-compliers and non-compliance in certain groups may be important in ensuring the interruption of transmission in the study area. However, in areas with high pre-control force of transmission, as in these districts, annual distribution with ivermectin, even if sustaining high levels of compliance, may still be inadequate to achieve elimination. Further studies are required to better understand the transmission dynamics and focus of on-going transmission in the study districts.

Community Directed Treatment with ivermectin is the cornerstone of current efforts to eliminate onchocerciasis. Ivermectin distribution alone has been shown to be able to interrupt transmission but there are foci where long-term distribution of the drug alone has failed to ensure elimination thresholds are reached. Two health districts in the western region of Cameroon remain with high prevalence of infection despite annual distribution of ivermectin since 1996. The study aims to explore factors related to non-compliance in two health districts in the west region of Cameroon. Nearly 30% of the population did not take ivermectin during the most recent round of mass drug administration and there was a significant proportion of the population that had reportedly never taken the drug. The key factors related to drug compliance in the most recent round, related to either programmatic and delivery issues, primarily absenteeism at the time of the campaign, or alternatively individual determinants, such as side effects associated with the drug, ethnicity, age and years lived in the village. Efforts to reduce the number of systematic non-compliers and non-compliance in certain groups are likely to be important in ensuring the interruption of transmission in the study area.

Modelling Neglected Tropical Diseases diagnostics: the sensitivity of skin snips for Onchocerca volvulus in near elimination and surveillance settings

BACKGROUND

The African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control has proposed provisional thresholds for the prevalence of microfilariae in humans and of L3 larvae in blackflies, below which mass drug administration (MDA) with ivermectin can be stopped and surveillance started. Skin snips are currently the gold standard test for detecting patent Onchocerca volvulus infection, and the World Health Organization recommends their use to monitor progress of treatment programmes (but not to verify elimination). However, if they are used (in transition and in parallel to Ov-16 serology), sampling protocols should be designed to demonstrate that programmatic goals have been reached. The sensitivity of skin snips is key to the design of such protocols.

METHODS

We develop a mathematical model for the number of microfilariae in a skin snip and parameterise it using data from Guatemala, Venezuela, Ghana and Cameroon collected before the start of ivermectin treatment programmes. We use the model to estimate sensitivity as a function of time since last treatment, number of snips taken, microfilarial aggregation and female worm fertility after exposure to 10 annual rounds of ivermectin treatment.

RESULTS

The sensitivity of the skin snip method increases with time after treatment, with most of the increase occurring between 0 and 5 years. One year after the last treatment, the sensitivity of two skin snips taken from an individual infected with a single fertile female worm is 31 % if there is no permanent effect of multiple ivermectin treatments on fertility; 18 % if there is a 7 % reduction per treatment, and 0.6 % if there is a 35 % reduction. At 5 years, the corresponding sensitivities are 76 %, 62 % and 4.7 %. The sensitivity improves significantly if 4 skin snips are taken: in the absence of a permanent effect of ivermectin, the sensitivity of 4 skin snips is 53 % 1 year and 94 % 5 years after the last treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

Our model supports the timelines proposed by APOC for post-MDA follow-up and surveillance surveys every 3-5 years. Two skin snips from the iliac region have reasonable sensitivity to detect residual infection, but the sensitivity can be significantly improved by taking 4 snips. The costs and benefits of using four versus two snips should be evaluated.

Research for new drugs for elimination of onchocerciasis in Africa

Onchocerciasis is a parasitic, vector borne disease caused by the filarial nematode Onchocerca volvulus. More than 99% of the population at risk of infection live in Africa. Onchocerciasis control was initiated in West Africa in 1974 with vector control, later complemented by ivermectin mass drug administration and in the other African endemic countries in 1995 with annual community directed treatment with ivermectin (CDTI.) This has significantly reduced infection prevalence. Together with proof-of-concept for onchocerciasis elimination with annual CDTI from foci in Senegal and Mali, this has resulted in targeting onchocerciasis elimination in selected African countries by 2020 and in 80% of African countries by 2025. The challenges for meeting these targets include the number of endemic countries where conflict has delayed or interrupted control programmes, cross-border foci, potential emergence of parasite strains with low susceptibility to ivermectin and co-endemicity of loiasis, another parasitic vector borne disease, which slows down or prohibits CDTI implementation. Some of these challenges could be addressed with new drugs or drug combinations with a higher effect on Onchocerca volvulus than ivermectin. This paper reviews the path from discovery of new compounds to their qualification for large scale use and the support regulatory authorities provide for development of drugs for neglected tropical diseases. The status of research for new drugs or treatment regimens for onchocerciasis along the path to regulatory approval and qualification for large scale use is reviewed. This research includes new regimens and combinations of ivermectin and albendazole, antibiotics targeting the O. volvulus endosymbiont Wolbachia, flubendazole, moxidectin and emodepside and discovery of new compounds.

Vaccination of Gerbils with Bm-103 and Bm-RAL-2 Concurrently or as a Fusion Protein Confers Consistent and Improved Protection against Brugia malayi Infection

Background

The Brugia malayi Bm-103 and Bm-RAL-2 proteins are orthologous to Onchocerca volvulus Ov-103 and Ov-RAL-2, and which were selected as the best candidates for the development of an O. volvulus vaccine. The B. malayi gerbil model was used to confirm the efficacy of these Ov vaccine candidates on adult worms and to determine whether their combination is more efficacious.

Methodology and Principle Findings

Vaccine efficacy of recombinant Bm-103 and Bm-RAL-2 administered individually, concurrently or as a fusion protein were tested in gerbils using alum as adjuvant. Vaccination with Bm-103 resulted in worm reductions of 39%, 34% and 22% on 42, 120 and 150 days post infection (dpi), respectively, and vaccination with Bm-RAL-2 resulted in worm reductions of 42%, 22% and 46% on 42, 120 and 150 dpi, respectively. Vaccination with a fusion protein comprised of Bm-103 and Bm-RAL-2 resulted in improved efficacy with significant reduction of worm burden of 51% and 49% at 90 dpi, as did the concurrent vaccination with Bm-103 and Bm-RAL-2, with worm reduction of 61% and 56% at 90 dpi. Vaccination with Bm-103 and Bm-RAL-2 as a fusion protein or concurrently not only induced a significant worm reduction of 61% and 42%, respectively, at 150 dpi, but also significantly reduced the fecundity of female worms as determined by embryograms. Elevated levels of antigen-specific IgG were observed in all vaccinated gerbils. Serum from gerbils vaccinated with Bm-103 and Bm-RAL-2 individually, concurrently or as a fusion protein killed third stage larvae in vitro when combined with peritoneal exudate cells.

Conclusion

Although vaccination with Bm-103 and Bm-RAL-2 individually conferred protection against B. malayi infection in gerbils, a more consistent and enhanced protection was induced by vaccination with Bm-103 and Bm-RAL-2 fusion protein and when they were used concurrently. Further characterization and optimization of these filarial vaccines are warranted.

Onchocerciasis and Lymphatic filariasis (LF) are debilitating neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). Practical challenges in implementation of mass drug administration (MDA) such as prolonged treatment regime requirements and the possible emergence of drug resistance will likely impede the elimination of these NTDs. Hence, the availability of an efficacious prophylactic vaccine would be an invaluable tool. The objective of the present studies was to use the B. malayi-gerbil model of filariasis as a surrogate system to test the efficacy of filarial molecules as vaccine targets for an onchocerciasis vaccine. The vaccine efficacy of Onchocerca volvulus recombinant proteins Ov-RAL-2 and Ov-103 was recently demonstrated using a mouse diffusion chamber model. In this communication, we provide encouraging results on the vaccine efficacy of Bm-RAL-2 and Bm-103, individually or in combination. Our data demonstrate that vaccination with Bm-RAL-2 and Bm-103 concurrently and as a fusion protein confers not only a consistent and significant protection against B. malayi infection in gerbils, but also reduces the fecundity of female worms as demonstrated in embryogram analyses. Our results support the contention that Ov-RAL-2 and Ov-103 are excellent onchocerciasis vaccine candidates and that further investigations leading to their development as a vaccine are warranted.

Does Increasing Treatment Frequency Address Suboptimal Responses to Ivermectin for the Control and Elimination of River Blindness?

The first 3 years of biannual ivermectin distribution in Ghana have substantially reduced Onchocerca volvulus infection levels in 10 sentinel communities, but longitudinal analysis indicates that some communities are still consistently responding suboptimally to treatment, with implications for onchocerciasis elimination.

Background. Several African countries have adopted a biannual ivermectin distribution strategy in some foci to control and eliminate onchocerciasis. In 2010, the Ghana Health Service started biannual distribution to combat transmission hotspots and suboptimal responses to treatment. We assessed the epidemiological impact of the first 3 years of this strategy and quantified responses to ivermectin over 2 consecutive rounds of treatment in 10 sentinel communities.

Methods. We evaluated Onchocerca volvulus community microfilarial intensity and prevalence in persons aged ≥20 years before the first, second, and fifth (or sixth) biannual treatment rounds using skin snip data from 956 participants. We used longitudinal regression modeling to estimate rates of microfilarial repopulation of the skin in a cohort of 217 participants who were followed up over the first 2 rounds of biannual treatment.

Results. Biannual treatment has had a positive impact, with substantial reductions in infection intensity after 4 or 5 rounds in most communities. We identified 3 communities—all having been previously recognized as responding suboptimally to ivermectin—with statistically significantly high microfilarial repopulation rates. We did not find any clear association between microfilarial repopulation rate and the number of years of prior intervention, coverage, or the community level of infection.

Conclusions. The strategy of biannual ivermectin treatment in Ghana has reduced O. volvulus microfilarial intensity and prevalence, but suboptimal responses to treatment remain evident in a number of previously and consistently implicated communities. Whether increasing the frequency of treatment will be sufficient to meet the World Health Organization's 2020 elimination goals remains uncertain.

River Blindness: Mathematical Models for Control and Elimination

Human onchocerciasis (river blindness) is one of the few neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) whose control strategies have been informed by mathematical modelling. With the change in focus from elimination of the disease burden to elimination of Onchocerca volvulus, much remains to be done to refine, calibrate and validate existing models. Under the impetus of the NTD Modelling Consortium, the teams that developed EPIONCHO and ONCHOSIM have joined forces to compare and improve these frameworks to better assist ongoing elimination efforts. We review their current versions and describe how they are being used to address two key questions: (1) where can onchocerciasis be eliminated with current intervention strategies by 2020/2025? and (2) what alternative/complementary strategies could help to accelerate elimination where (1) cannot be achieved? The control and elimination of onchocerciasis from the African continent is at a crucial crossroad. The African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control closed at the end of 2015, and although a new platform for support and integration of NTD control has been launched, the disease will have to compete with a myriad of other national health priorities at a pivotal time in the road to elimination. However, never before had onchocerciasis control a better arsenal of intervention strategies as well as diagnostics. It is, therefore, timely to present two models of different geneses and modelling traditions as they come together to produce robust decision-support tools. We start by describing the structural and parametric assumptions of EPIONCHO and ONCHOSIM; we continue by summarizing the modelling of current treatment strategies with annual (or biannual) mass ivermectin distribution and introduce a number of alternative strategies, including other microfilaricidal therapies (such as moxidectin), macrofilaricidal (anti-wolbachial) treatments, focal vector control and the possibility of an onchocerciasis vaccine. We conclude by discussing challenges, opportunities and future directions.

Model-Based Geostatistical Mapping of the Prevalence of Onchocerca volvulus in West Africa

BACKGROUND

The initial endemicity (pre-control prevalence) of onchocerciasis has been shown to be an important determinant of the feasibility of elimination by mass ivermectin distribution. We present the first geostatistical map of microfilarial prevalence in the former Onchocerciasis Control Programme in West Africa (OCP) before commencement of antivectorial and antiparasitic interventions.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Pre-control microfilarial prevalence data from 737 villages across the 11 constituent countries in the OCP epidemiological database were used as ground-truth data. These 737 data points, plus a set of statistically selected environmental covariates, were used in a Bayesian model-based geostatistical (B-MBG) approach to generate a continuous surface (at pixel resolution of 5 km x 5km) of microfilarial prevalence in West Africa prior to the commencement of the OCP. Uncertainty in model predictions was measured using a suite of validation statistics, performed on bootstrap samples of held-out validation data. The mean Pearson's correlation between observed and estimated prevalence at validation locations was 0.693; the mean prediction error (average difference between observed and estimated values) was 0.77%, and the mean absolute prediction error (average magnitude of difference between observed and estimated values) was 12.2%. Within OCP boundaries, 17.8 million people were deemed to have been at risk, 7.55 million to have been infected, and mean microfilarial prevalence to have been 45% (range: 2-90%) in 1975.

CONCLUSIONS AND SIGNIFICANCE

This is the first map of initial onchocerciasis prevalence in West Africa using B-MBG. Important environmental predictors of infection prevalence were identified and used in a model out-performing those without spatial random effects or environmental covariates. Results may be compared with recent epidemiological mapping efforts to find areas of persisting transmission. These methods may be extended to areas where data are sparse, and may be used to help inform the feasibility of elimination with current and novel tools.

Quantitative analyses and modelling to support achievement of the 2020 goals for nine neglected tropical diseases

Quantitative analysis and mathematical models are useful tools in informing strategies to control or eliminate disease. Currently, there is an urgent need to develop these tools to inform policy to achieve the 2020 goals for neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). In this paper we give an overview of a collection of novel model-based analyses which aim to address key questions on the dynamics of transmission and control of nine NTDs: Chagas disease, visceral leishmaniasis, human African trypanosomiasis, leprosy, soil-transmitted helminths, schistosomiasis, lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis and trachoma. Several common themes resonate throughout these analyses, including: the importance of epidemiological setting on the success of interventions; targeting groups who are at highest risk of infection or re-infection; and reaching populations who are not accessing interventions and may act as a reservoir for infection,. The results also highlight the challenge of maintaining elimination 'as a public health problem' when true elimination is not reached. The models elucidate the factors that may be contributing most to persistence of disease and discuss the requirements for eventually achieving true elimination, if that is possible. Overall this collection presents new analyses to inform current control initiatives. These papers form a base from which further development of the models and more rigorous validation against a variety of datasets can help to give more detailed advice. At the moment, the models' predictions are being considered as the world prepares for a final push towards control or elimination of neglected tropical diseases by 2020.

Estimation of changes in the force of infection for intestinal and urogenital schistosomiasis in countries with schistosomiasis control initiative-assisted programmes

Background

The last decade has seen an expansion of national schistosomiasis control programmes in Africa based on large-scale preventative chemotherapy. In many areas this has resulted in considerable reductions in infection and morbidity levels in treated individuals. In this paper, we quantify changes in the force of infection (FOI), defined here as the per (human) host parasite establishment rate, to ascertain the impact on transmission of some of these programmes under the umbrella of the Schistosomiasis Control Initiative (SCI).

Methods

A previous model for the transmission dynamics of Schistosoma mansoni was adapted here to S. haematobium. These models were fitted to longitudinal cohort (infection intensity) monitoring and evaluation data. Changes in the FOI following up to three annual rounds of praziquantel were estimated for Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zambia in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) according to country, baseline endemicity and schistosome species. Since schistosomiasis transmission is known to be highly focal, changes in the FOI at a finer geographical scale (that of sentinel site) were also estimated for S. mansoni in Uganda.

Results

Substantial and statistically significant reductions in the FOI relative to baseline were recorded in the majority of, but not all, combinations of country, parasite species, and endemicity areas. At the finer geographical scale assessed within Uganda, marked heterogeneity in the magnitude and direction of the relative changes in FOI was observed that would not have been appreciated by a coarser-scale analysis.

Conclusions

Reductions in the rate at which humans acquire schistosomes have been achieved in many areas of SSA countries assisted by the SCI, while challenges in effectively reducing transmission persist in others. Understanding the underlying heterogeneity in the impact and performance of the control intervention at the level of the transmission site will become increasingly important for programmes transitioning from morbidity reduction to elimination of infection. Such analyses will require a fine-scale approach. The lack of association found between programmatic variables, such as therapeutic treatment coverage (recorded at district level) and changes in FOI (at sentinel site level) is discussed and recommendations are made.

Required duration of mass ivermectin treatment for onchocerciasis elimination in Africa: a comparative modelling analysis

Background

The World Health Organization (WHO) has set ambitious targets for the elimination of onchocerciasis by 2020–2025 through mass ivermectin treatment. Two different mathematical models have assessed the feasibility of reaching this goal for different settings and treatment scenarios, namely the individual-based microsimulation model ONCHOSIM and the population-based deterministic model EPIONCHO. In this study, we harmonize some crucial assumptions and compare model predictions on common outputs.

Methods

Using a range of initial endemicity levels and treatment scenarios, we compared the models with respect to the following outcomes: 1) model-predicted trends in microfilarial (mf) prevalence and mean mf intensity during 25 years of (annual or biannual) mass ivermectin treatment; 2) treatment duration needed to bring mf prevalence below a provisional operational threshold for treatment interruption (pOTTIS, i.e. 1.4 %), and 3) treatment duration needed to drive the parasite population to local elimination, even in the absence of further interventions. Local elimination was judged by stochastic fade-out in ONCHOSIM and by reaching transmission breakpoints in EPIONCHO.

Results

ONCHOSIM and EPIONCHO both predicted that in mesoendemic areas the pOTTIS can be reached with annual treatment, but that this strategy may be insufficient in very highly hyperendemic areas or would require prolonged continuation of treatment. For the lower endemicity levels explored, ONCHOSIM predicted that the time needed to reach the pOTTIS is longer than that needed to drive the parasite population to elimination, whereas for the higher endemicity levels the opposite was true. In EPIONCHO, the pOTTIS was reached consistently sooner than the breakpoint.

Conclusions

The operational thresholds proposed by APOC may have to be adjusted to adequately reflect differences in pre-control endemicities. Further comparative modelling work will be conducted to better understand the main causes of differences in model-predicted trends. This is a pre-requisite for guiding elimination programmes in Africa and refining operational criteria for stopping mass treatment.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13071-015-1159-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

DNA vaccine encoding the moonlighting protein Onchocerca volvulus glyceraldehyde-3-phosphate dehydrogenase (Ov-GAPDH) leads to partial protection in a mouse model of human filariasis

River blindness, caused by the filarial parasite Onchocerca volvulus, is a major socio-economic and public health problem in Sub-Saharan Africa. In January 2015, The Onchocerciasis Vaccine for Africa (TOVA) Initiative has been launched with the aim of providing new tools to complement mass drug administration (MDA) of ivermectin, thereby promoting elimination of onchocerciasis in Africa. In this context we here present Onchocerca volvulus glyceraldehyde-3-phosphate dehydrogenase (Ov-GAPDH) as a possible DNA vaccine candidate. We report that in a laboratory model for filariasis, immunization with Ov-GAPDH led to a significant reduction of adult worm load and microfilaraemia in BALB/c mice after challenge infection with the filarial parasite Litomosoides sigmodontis. Mice were either vaccinated with Ov-GAPDH.DNA plasmid (Ov-pGAPDH.DNA) alone or in combination with recombinantly expressed Ov-GAPDH protein (Ov-rGAPDH). During the following challenge infection of immunized and control mice with L. sigmodontis, those formulations which included the DNA plasmid, led to a significant reduction of adult worm loads (up to 57% median reduction) and microfilaraemia (up to 94% reduction) in immunized animals. In a further experiment, immunization with a mixture of four overlapping, synthetic Ov-GAPDH peptides (Ov-GAPDHpept), with alum as adjuvant, did not significantly reduce worm loads. Our results indicate that DNA vaccination with Ov-GAPDH has protective potential against filarial challenge infection in the mouse model. This suggests a transfer of the approach into the cattle Onchocerca ochengi model, where it is possible to investigate the effects of this vaccination in the context of a natural host-parasite relationship.

Human Onchocerciasis: Modelling the Potential Long-term Consequences of a Vaccination Programme

Background

Currently, the predominant onchocerciasis control strategy in Africa is annual mass drug administration (MDA) with ivermectin. However, there is a consensus among the global health community, supported by mathematical modelling, that onchocerciasis in Africa will not be eliminated within proposed time frameworks in all endemic foci with only annual MDA, and novel and alternative strategies are urgently needed. Furthermore, use of MDA with ivermectin is already compromised in large areas of central Africa co-endemic with Loa loa, and there are areas where suboptimal or atypical responses to ivermectin have been documented. An onchocerciasis vaccine would be highly advantageous in these areas.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We used a previously developed onchocerciasis transmission model (EPIONCHO) to investigate the impact of vaccination in areas where loiasis and onchocerciasis are co-endemic and ivermectin is contraindicated. We also explore the potential influence of a vaccination programme on infection resurgence in areas where local elimination has been successfully achieved. Based on the age range included in the Expanded Programme on Immunization (EPI), the vaccine was assumed to target 1 to 5 year olds. Our modelling results indicate that the deployment of an onchocerciasis vaccine would have a beneficial impact in onchocerciasis–loiasis co-endemic areas, markedly reducing microfilarial load in the young (under 20 yr) age groups.

Conclusions/Significance

An onchocerciasis prophylactic vaccine would reduce the onchocerciasis disease burden in populations where ivermectin cannot be administered safely. Moreover, a vaccine could substantially decrease the chance of re-emergence of Onchocerca volvulus infection in areas where it is deemed that MDA with ivermectin can be stopped. Therefore, a vaccine would protect the substantial investments made by present and past onchocerciasis control programmes, decreasing the chance of disease recrudescence and offering an important additional tool to mitigate the potentially devastating impact of emerging ivermectin resistance.

Novel and alternative strategies are required to meet the demanding control and elimination (of infection) goals for human onchocerciasis (river blindness) in Africa. Due to the overlapping distribution of onchocerciasis and loiasis (African eye worm) in forested areas of central Africa, millions of people living in such areas are not well served by current interventions because they cannot safely receive the antiparasitic drug ivermectin that is distributed en masse to treat onchocerciasis elsewhere in Africa. The Onchocerciasis Vaccine for Africa—TOVA—Initiative has been established to develop and trial an onchocerciasis vaccine. We model the potential impact of a hypothetical childhood vaccination programme rolled out in areas where co-endemicity of onchocerciasis and African eye worm makes mass distribution of ivermectin difficult and potentially unsafe for treating, controlling and eliminating river blindness. We find that, 15 years into the programme, a vaccine would substantially reduce infection levels in children and young adults, protecting them from the morbidity and mortality associated with onchocerciasis. Most benefit would be reaped from a long-lived vaccine, even if only partially protective. We also discuss how a vaccine could substantially reduce the risk of re-emergence of onchocerciasis in areas freed from infection after years of successful intervention.

Onchocerciasis transmission in Ghana: persistence under different control strategies and the role of the simuliid vectors

BACKGROUND

The World Health Organization (WHO) aims at eliminating onchocerciasis by 2020 in selected African countries. Current control focuses on community-directed treatment with ivermectin (CDTI). In Ghana, persistent transmission has been reported despite long-term control. We present spatial and temporal patterns of onchocerciasis transmission in relation to ivermectin treatment history.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Host-seeking and ovipositing blackflies were collected from seven villages in four regions of Ghana with 3-24 years of CDTI at the time of sampling. A total of 16,443 flies was analysed for infection; 5,812 (35.3%) were dissected for parity (26.9% parous). Heads and thoraces of 12,196 flies were dissected for Onchocerca spp. and DNA from 11,122 abdomens was amplified using Onchocerca primers. A total of 463 larvae (0.03 larvae/fly) from 97 (0.6%) infected and 62 (0.4%) infective flies was recorded; 258 abdomens (2.3%) were positive for Onchocerca DNA. Infections (all were O. volvulus) were more likely to be detected in ovipositing flies. Transmission occurred, mostly in the wet season, at Gyankobaa and Bosomase, with transmission potentials of, respectively, 86 and 422 L3/person/month after 3 and 6 years of CDTI. The numbers of L3/1,000 parous flies at these villages were over 100 times the WHO threshold of one L3/1,000 for transmission control. Vector species influenced transmission parameters. At Asubende, the number of L3/1,000 ovipositing flies (1.4, 95% CI = 0-4) also just exceeded the threshold despite extensive vector control and 24 years of ivermectin distribution, but there were no infective larvae in host-seeking flies.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Despite repeated ivermectin treatment, evidence of O. volvulus transmission was documented in all seven villages and above the WHO threshold in two. Vector species influences transmission through biting and parous rates and vector competence, and should be included in transmission models. Oviposition traps could augment vector collector methods for monitoring and surveillance.

The potential impact of moxidectin on onchocerciasis elimination in Africa: an economic evaluation based on the Phase II clinical trial data

BACKGROUND

Spurred by success in several foci, onchocerciasis control policy in Africa has shifted from morbidity control to elimination of infection. Clinical trials have demonstrated that moxidectin is substantially more efficacious than ivermectin in effecting sustained reductions in skin microfilarial load and, therefore, may accelerate progress towards elimination. We compare the potential cost-effectiveness of annual moxidectin with annual and biannual ivermectin treatment.

METHODS

Data from the first clinical study of moxidectin were used to parameterise the onchocerciasis transmission model EPIONCHO to investigate, for different epidemiological and programmatic scenarios in African savannah settings, the number of years and in-country costs necessary to reach the operational thresholds for cessation of treatment, comparing annual and biannual ivermectin with annual moxidectin treatment.

RESULTS

Annual moxidectin and biannual ivermectin treatment would achieve similar reductions in programme duration relative to annual ivermectin treatment. Unlike biannual ivermectin treatment, annual moxidectin treatment would not incur a considerable increase in programmatic costs and, therefore, would generate sizeable in-country cost savings (assuming the drug is donated). Furthermore, the impact of moxidectin, unlike ivermectin, was not substantively influenced by the timing of treatment relative to seasonal patterns of transmission.

CONCLUSIONS

Moxidectin is a promising new drug for the control and elimination of onchocerciasis. It has high programmatic value particularly when resource limitation prevents a biannual treatment strategy, or optimal timing of treatment relative to peak transmission season is not feasible.

Modelling the effects of mass drug administration on the molecular epidemiology of schistosomes

As national governments scale up mass drug administration (MDA) programs aimed to combat neglected tropical diseases (NTDs), novel selection pressures on these parasites increase. To understand how parasite populations are affected by MDA and how to maximize the success of control programmes, it is imperative for epidemiological, molecular and mathematical modelling approaches to be combined. Modelling of parasite population genetic and genomic structure, particularly of the NTDs, has been limited through the availability of only a few molecular markers to date. The landscape of infectious disease research is being dramatically reshaped by next-generation sequencing technologies and our understanding of how repeated selective pressures are shaping parasite populations is radically altering. Genomics can provide high-resolution data on parasite population structure, and identify how loci may contribute to key phenotypes such as virulence and/or drug resistance. We discuss the incorporation of genetic and genomic data, focussing on the recently sequenced Schistosoma spp., into novel mathematical transmission models to inform our understanding of the impact of MDA and other control methods. We summarize what is known to date, the models that exist and how population genetics has given us an understanding of the effects of MDA on the parasites. We consider how genetic and genomic data have the potential to shape future research, highlighting key areas where data are lacking, and how future molecular epidemiology knowledge can aid understanding of transmission dynamics and the effects of MDA, ultimately informing public health policy makers of the best interventions for NTDs.

Modelling lymphatic filariasis transmission and control: modelling frameworks, lessons learned and future directions

Mathematical modelling provides a useful tool for policy making and planning in lymphatic filariasis control programmes, by providing trend forecasts based on sound scientific knowledge and principles. This is now especially true, in view of the ambitious target to eliminate lymphatic filariasis as a public health problem globally by the year 2020 and the short remaining timeline to achieve this. To meet this target, elimination programmes need to be accelerated, requiring further optimization of strategies and tailoring to local circumstances. Insights from epidemiological transmission models provide a useful basis. Two general models of lymphatic filariasis transmission and control are nowadays in use to support decision-making, namely a population-based deterministic model (EPIFIL) and an individual-based stochastic model (LYMFASIM). Model predictions confirm that lymphatic filariasis transmission can be interrupted by annual mass drug administration (MDA), but this may need to be continued much longer than the initially suggested 4-6 years in areas with high transmission intensity or poor treatment coverage. However, the models have not been validated against longitudinal data describing the impact of MDA programmes. Some critical issues remain to be incorporated in one or both of the models to make predictions on elimination more realistic, including the possible occurrence of systematic noncompliance, the risk of emerging parasite resistance to anthelmintic drugs, and spatial heterogeneities. Rapid advances are needed to maximize the utility of models in decision-making for the ongoing ambitious lymphatic filariasis elimination programmes.

Elimination of African onchocerciasis: modeling the impact of increasing the frequency of ivermectin mass treatment

The African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control (APOC) is currently shifting its focus from morbidity control to elimination of infection. To enhance the likelihood of elimination and speed up its achievement, programs may consider to increase the frequency of ivermectin mass treatment from annual to 6-monthly or even higher. In a computer simulation study, we examined the potential impact of increasing the mass treatment frequency for different settings. With the ONCHOSIM model, we simulated 92,610 scenarios pertaining to different assumptions about transmission conditions, history of mass treatment, the future mass treatment strategy, and ivermectin efficacy. Simulation results were used to determine the minimum remaining program duration and number of treatment rounds required to achieve 99% probability of elimination. Doubling the frequency of treatment from yearly to 6-monthly or 3-monthly was predicted to reduce remaining program duration by about 40% or 60%, respectively. These reductions come at a cost of additional treatment rounds, especially in case of 3-monthly mass treatment. Also, aforementioned reductions are highly dependent on maintained coverage, and could be completely nullified if coverage of mass treatment were to fall in the future. In low coverage settings, increasing treatment coverage is almost just as effective as increasing treatment frequency. We conclude that 6-monthly mass treatment may only be worth the effort in situations where annual treatment is expected to take a long time to achieve elimination in spite of good treatment coverage, e.g. because of unfavorable transmission conditions or because mass treatment started recently.

Onchocerciasis transmission in Ghana: biting and parous rates of host-seeking sibling species of the Simulium damnosum complex

Background

Ghana is renowned for its sibling species diversity of the Simulium damnosum complex, vectors of Onchocerca volvulus. Detailed entomological knowledge becomes a priority as onchocerciasis control policy has shifted from morbidity reduction to elimination of infection. To date, understanding of transmission dynamics of O. volvulus has been mainly based on S. damnosum sensu stricto (s.s.) data. We aim to elucidate bionomic features of vector species of importance for onchocerciasis elimination efforts.

Methods

We collected S. damnosum sensu lato from seven villages in four Ghanaian regions between 2009 and 2011, using standard vector collection, and human- and cattle-baited tents. Taxa were identified using morphological and molecular techniques. Monthly biting rates (MBR), parous rates and monthly parous biting rates (MPBR) are reported by locality, season, trapping method and hour of collection for each species.

Results

S. damnosum s.s./S. sirbanum were collected at Asubende and Agborlekame, both savannah villages. A range of species was caught in the Volta region (forest-savannah mosaic) and Gyankobaa (forest), with S. squamosum or S. sanctipauli being the predominant species, respectively. In Bosomase (southern forest region) only S. sanctipauli was collected in the 2009 wet season, but in the 2010 dry season S. yahense was also caught. MBRs ranged from 714 bites/person/month at Agborlekame (100% S. damnosum s.s./S. sirbanum) to 8,586 bites/person/month at Pillar 83/Djodji (98.5% S. squamosum). MBRs were higher in the wet season. In contrast, parous rates were higher in the dry season (41.8% vs. 18.4%), resulting in higher MPBRs in the dry season. Daily host-seeking activity of S. damnosum s.s./S. sirbanum was bimodal, whilst S. squamosum and S. sanctipauli had unimodal afternoon peaks.

Conclusions

The bionomic differences between sibling species of the S. damnosum complex need to be taken into account when designing entomological monitoring protocols for interventions and parameterising mathematical models for onchocerciasis control and elimination.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13071-014-0511-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

A randomized, single-ascending-dose, ivermectin-controlled, double-blind study of moxidectin in Onchocerca volvulus infection

BACKGROUND

Control of onchocerciasis as a public health problem in Africa relies on annual mass ivermectin distribution. New tools are needed to achieve elimination of infection. This study determined in a small number of Onchocerca volvulus infected individuals whether moxidectin, a veterinary anthelminthic, is safe enough to administer it in a future large study to further characterize moxidectin's safety and efficacy. Effects on the parasite were also assessed.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Men and women from a forest area in South-eastern Ghana without ivermectin mass distribution received a single oral dose of 2 mg (N = 44), 4 mg (N = 45) or 8 mg (N = 38) moxidectin or 150 µg/kg ivermectin (N = 45) with 18 months follow up. All ivermectin and 97%-100% of moxidectin treated participants had Mazzotti reactions. Statistically significantly higher percentages of participants treated with 8 mg moxidectin than participants treated with ivermectin experienced pruritus (87% vs. 56%), rash (63% vs. 42%), increased pulse rate (61% vs. 36%) and decreased mean arterial pressure upon 2 minutes standing still after ≥5 minutes supine relative to pre-treatment (61% vs. 27%). These reactions resolved without treatment. In the 8 mg moxidectin and ivermectin arms, the mean±SD number of microfilariae/mg skin were 22.9±21.1 and 21.2±16.4 pre-treatment and 0.0±0.0 and 1.1±4.2 at nadir reached 1 and 3 months after treatment, respectively. At 6 months, values were 0.0±0.0 and 1.6±4.5, at 12 months 0.4±0.9 and 3.4±4.4 and at 18 months 1.8±3.3 and 4.0±4.8, respectively, in the 8 mg moxidectin and ivermectin arm. The reduction from pre-treatment values was significantly higher after 8 mg moxidectin than after ivermectin treatment throughout follow up (p<0.01).

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

The 8 mg dose of moxidectin was safe enough to initiate the large study. Provided its results confirm those from this study, availability of moxidectin to control programmes could help them achieve onchocerciasis elimination objectives.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00300768.

Reaching the london declaration on neglected tropical diseases goals for onchocerciasis: an economic evaluation of increasing the frequency of ivermectin treatment in Africa

Although switching from annual to biannual ivermectin treatment yields small additional health benefits, in the context of elimination goals its benefit is pronounced, increasing the feasibility of and shortening the time frames for reaching proposed operational thresholds for stopping treatment.

Background. Recently, there has been a shift in onchocerciasis control policy, changing from prevention of morbidity toward elimination of infection. Switching from annual to biannual ivermectin distribution may accelerate progress toward the elimination goals. However, the settings where this strategy would be cost effective in Africa have not been described.

Methods. An onchocerciasis transmission framework (EpiOncho) was coupled to a disease model in order to explore the impact on disability-adjusted life years averted, program cost, and program duration of biannual ivermectin treatment in different epidemiological and programmatic scenarios in African savannah.

Results. While biannual treatment yields only small additional health gains, its benefit is pronounced in the context of the elimination goals, shortening the time frames for and increasing the feasibility of reaching the proposed operational thresholds for stopping treatment. In settings with high precontrol endemicity (and/or poor coverage and compliance), it may not be possible to reach such thresholds even within 50 years of annual ivermectin, requiring adoption of biannual treatment. Our projections highlight the crucial role played by coverage and compliance in achieving the elimination goals.

Conclusions. Biannual ivermectin treatment improves the chances of reaching the 2020/2025 elimination goals, potentially generating programmatic cost savings in settings with high precontrol endemicity. However, its benefit and cost are highly sensitive to levels of systematic noncompliance and, in many settings, it will lead to an increase in costs. Furthermore, it may not always be feasible to implement biannual treatment, particularly in hard-to-reach populations. This highlights the continued need for a macrofilaricide.

Modelling the impact of ivermectin on River Blindness and its burden of morbidity and mortality in African Savannah: EpiOncho projections

Background

The African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control (APOC) has refocused its goals on the elimination of infection where possible, seemingly achievable by 15–17 years of annual mass distribution of ivermectin in some African foci. Previously, APOC had focused on the elimination of onchocerciasis as a public health problem. Timeframes have been set by the World Health Organization, the London Declaration on Neglected Tropical Diseases and the World Bank to achieve these goals by 2020–2025.

Methods

A novel mathematical model of the dynamics of onchocercal disease is presented which links documented associations between Onchocerca volvulus infection and the prevalence and incidence of morbidity and mortality to model outputs from our host age- and sex-structured onchocerciasis transmission framework (EpiOncho). The model is calibrated for African savannah settings, and used to assess the impact of long-term annual mass administration of ivermectin on infection and ocular and skin disease and to explore how this depends on epidemiological and programmatic variables.

Results

Current onchocerciasis disease projections, which do not account for excess mortality of sighted individuals with heavy microfilarial loads, underestimate disease burden. Long-term annual ivermectin treatment is highly effective at reducing both the morbidity and mortality associated with onchocerciasis, and this result is not greatly influenced by treatment coverage and compliance. By contrast, impact on microfilarial prevalence and intensity is highly dependent on baseline endemicity, treatment coverage and systematic non-compliance.

Conclusions

The goals of eliminating morbidity and infection with ivermectin alone are distinctly influenced by epidemiological and programmatic factors. Whilst the former goal is most certainly achievable, reaching the latter will strongly depend on initial endemicity (the higher the endemicity, the greater the magnitude of inter-treatment transmission), advising caution when generalising the applicability of successful elimination outcomes to other areas. The proportion of systematic non-compliers will become far more influential in terms of overall success in achieving elimination goals.

Stability and change in the distribution of cytospecies of the Simulium damnosum complex (Diptera: Simuliidae) in southern Ghana from 1971 to 2011

BACKGROUND

Simulium damnosum s.l., the most important vector of onchocerciasis in Africa, is a complex of sibling species that have been described on the basis of differences in their larval polytene chromosomes. These (cyto) species differ in their geographical distributions, ecologies and epidemiological roles. In Ghana, distributional changes have been recorded as a consequence of vector control and environmental change (e.g. deforestation), with potential disease consequences. We review the distribution of cytospecies in southern Ghana and report changes observed with reference to historical data collated from 1971 to 2005 and new identifications made between 2006 and 2011.

METHODS/RESULTS

Larvae were collected from riverine breeding sites, fixed in Carnoy's solution and chromosome preparations made. Cytotaxonomic identifications from 1,232 samples (including 49 new samples) were analysed. We report long-term stability in cytospecies distribution in the rivers Afram, Akrum, Pawnpawn and Pru. For the rivers Oda, Ofin and Tano we describe (for the first time) patterns of distribution. We could not detect cytospecies composition changes in the upper Pra, and the lower Pra seems to have been stable. The elimination of the Djodji form of S. sanctipauli in the Volta Region seems to have had no long-term effects on the distribution of the other cytospecies, despite an initial surge by S. yahense. There has been a recent increase in the occurrence of savannah cytospecies in the river Asukawkaw, and this might be related to continuing deforestation.

CONCLUSIONS

Cytospecies' distributions have not been stable from 1971 to 2011. Although there are no obvious causes for the temporary appearance and subsequent disappearance of cytospecies in a particular location, a major influence has been vector control and migration patterns, probably explaining observed changes on the Black Volta and lower Volta rivers. Deforestation was previously implicated in an increase of savannah cytospecies in southern Ghana (1975-1997). Our data had little power to support (or refute) suggestions of a continuing increase, except in the Asukawkaw river basin.