The Nicaraguan pediatric dengue cohort study: incidence of inapparent and symptomatic dengue virus infections, 2004-2010

Epidemiological, virological and clinical characterization of a Dengue/Zika outbreak in the Caribbean region of Costa Rica 2017-2018

The increase in incidence and geographical expansion of viruses transmitted by the Aedes mosquitoes, such as dengue (DENV) and zika (ZIKV) in the Americas, represents a burden for healthcare systems in tropical and subtropical regions. These and other under-detected arboviruses co-circulate in Costa Rica, adding additional complexity to their management due to their shared epidemiological behavior and similarity of symptoms in early stages. Since diagnostics of febrile illness is mostly based on clinical symptoms alone, we gathered acute-phase serum and urine from 399 samples of acute dengue-like cases from two healthcare facilities of Costa Rica, during an outbreak of arboviruses from July 2017 to May 2018, and tested them using molecular and serological methods. The analyses showed that of the clinically presumptive arbovirus cases that were reported, only 39.4% (n=153) of the samples were confirmed positive by RT-PCR to be DENV (DENV (10.3%), CHIKV (0.2%), ZIKV (27.3%), or mixed infections (1.5%). RT-PCR for other alphaviruses and flaviviruses, and PCR for Leptospira sp were negative. Furthermore, to assess flavivirus positivity in post-acute patients, the negative sera were tested against Dengue-IgM. 20% of sera were found positive, confounding even more the definitive number of cases, and emphasizing the need of several distinct diagnostic tools for accurate diagnostics. Molecular characterization of the prM and E genes from isolated viruses revealed that the American/Asian genotype of DENV-2 and the Asian lineage of ZIKV were circulating during this outbreak. Two different clades of DENV-2 American/Asian genotype were identified to co-circulate in the same region and a difference in the platelet and leukocyte count was noted between people infected with each clade, suggesting a putative distinct virulence. Our study sheds light on the necessity for healthcare strategies in managing arbovirus outbreaks, emphasizing the importance of comprehensive molecular and serological diagnostic approaches, as well as molecular characterization. This approach aids in enhancing our understanding of the clinical and epidemiological aspects of arboviral diseases during outbreaks. Our research highlights the need to strengthen training programs for health professionals and the need to increase research-based on laboratory evidence for diagnostic accuracy, guidance, development and implementation of public health interventions and epidemiological surveillance.

Complement-dependent virion lysis mediated by dengue-Zika virus cross-reactive antibodies correlates with protection from severe dengue disease

Primary infection with one of four dengue virus serotypes (DENV1-4) may generate antibodies that protect or enhance subsequent secondary heterotypic infections. However, the characteristics of heterotypic cross-reactive antibodies associated with protection from symptomatic infection and severe disease are not well-defined. We selected plasma samples collected before a secondary DENV heterotypic infection that was classified either as dengue fever (DF, n = 31) or dengue hemorrhagic fever/dengue shock syndrome (DHF/DSS, n = 33) from our longstanding pediatric cohort in Nicaragua. We screened various antibody properties to determine the features correlated with protection from DHF/DSS. Protection was associated with high levels of binding of various antibody isotypes, IgG subclasses and effector functions, including antibody-dependent complement deposition, ADCD. Although the samples were derived from DENV-exposed, Zika virus (ZIKV)-naïve individuals, the protective ADCD association was stronger when assays were conducted with recombinant ZIKV antigens. Further, we showed that a complement-mediated virion lysis (virolysis) assay conducted with ZIKV virions was strongly associated with protection, a finding reproduced in an independent sample set collected prior to secondary heterotypic inapparent versus symptomatic DENV infection. Virolysis was the main antibody feature correlated with protection from DHF/DSS and severe symptoms, such as thrombocytopenia, hemorrhagic manifestations, and plasma leakage. Hence, anti-DENV antibodies that cross-react with ZIKV, target virion-associated epitopes, and mediate complement-dependent virolysis are correlated with protection from secondary symptomatic DENV infection and DHF/DSS. These findings may support the rational design and evaluation of dengue vaccines and development of therapeutics.

Primary exposure to Zika virus is linked with increased risk of symptomatic dengue virus infection with serotypes 2, 3, and 4, but not 1

Infection with any of the four dengue virus serotypes (DENV1-4) can protect against or enhance subsequent dengue depending on preexisting antibodies and infecting serotype. Additionally, primary infection with the related flavivirus Zika virus (ZIKV) is associated with increased risk of DENV2 disease. Here, we measured how prior DENV and ZIKV immunity influenced risk of disease caused by DENV1-4 in a pediatric Nicaraguan cohort. Of 3412 participants in 2022, 10.6% experienced dengue cases caused by DENV1 (n = 139), DENV4 (n = 133), DENV3 (n = 54), DENV2 (n = 9), or an undetermined serotype (n = 39). Longitudinal clinical and serological data were used to define infection histories, and generalized linear and additive models adjusted for age, sex, time since last infection, and year, and repeat measurements were used to predict disease risk. Compared with flavivirus-naïve participants, primary ZIKV infection was associated with increased risk of disease caused by DENV4 (relative risk = 2.62, 95% confidence interval: 1.48 to 4.63) and DENV3 (2.90, 1.34 to 6.27), but not DENV1 infection. Primary DENV infection or DENV followed by ZIKV infection was also associated with increased risk of DENV4 disease. We reanalyzed 19 years of cohort data and demonstrated that prior flavivirus immunity and antibody titer had distinct associations with disease risk depending on incoming serotype. We thus find that prior ZIKV infection, like prior DENV infection, is associated with increased risk of disease with certain DENV serotypes. Cross-reactivity among flaviviruses should be considered when assessing vaccine safety and efficacy.

Prior dengue virus serotype 3 infection modulates subsequent plasmablast responses to Zika virus infection in rhesus macaques

Immunodominant and highly conserved flavivirus envelope proteins can trigger cross-reactive IgG antibodies against related flaviviruses, which shapes subsequent protection or disease severity. This study examined how prior dengue serotype 3 (DENV-3) infection affects subsequent Zika virus (ZIKV) plasmablast responses in rhesus macaques (n = 4). We found that prior DENV-3 infection was not associated with diminished ZIKV-neutralizing antibodies or magnitude of plasmablast activation. Rather, characterization of 363 plasmablasts and their derivative 177 monoclonal antibody supernatants from acute ZIKV infection revealed that prior DENV-3 infection was associated with a differential isotype distribution toward IgG, lower somatic hypermutation, and lesser B cell receptor variable gene diversity as compared with repeat ZIKV challenge. We did not find long-lasting DENV-3 cross-reactive IgG after a ZIKV infection but did find persistent ZIKV-binding cross-reactive IgG after a DENV-3 infection, suggesting non-reciprocal cross-reactive immunity. Infection with ZIKV after DENV-3 boosted pre-existing DENV-3-neutralizing antibodies by two- to threefold, demonstrating immune imprinting. These findings suggest that the order of DENV and ZIKV infections has impact on the quality of early B cell immunity which has implications for optimal immunization strategies.

IMPORTANCE

The Zika virus epidemic of 2015-2016 in the Americas revealed that this mosquito-transmitted virus could be congenitally transmitted during pregnancy and cause birth defects in newborns. Currently, there are no interventions to mitigate this disease and Zika virus is likely to re-emerge. Understanding how protective antibody responses are generated against Zika virus can help in the development of a safe and effective vaccine. One main challenge is that Zika virus co-circulates with related viruses like dengue, such that prior exposure to one can generate cross-reactive antibodies against the other which may enhance infection and disease from the second virus. In this study, we sought to understand how prior dengue virus infection impacts subsequent immunity to Zika virus by single-cell sequencing of antibody producing cells in a second Zika virus infection. Identifying specific qualities of Zika virus immunity that are modulated by prior dengue virus immunity will enable optimal immunization strategies.

Frequency of Dengue Virus-Specific T Cells is related to Infection Outcome in Endemic Settings

Dengue is widespread in tropical and subtropical regions globally and leads to a considerable burden of disease. Annually, dengue virus (DENV) causes up to 400 million infections, of which ~25% present with clinical symptoms ranging from mild to fatal. Despite its significance as a growing public health concern, the development of effective DENV vaccines has been highly challenging. One of the reasons is the lack of comprehensive understanding of the influence exerted by prior DENV infections and immune responses with cross-reactive properties. To investigate this, we collected samples from a pediatric cohort study in dengue-endemic Managua, Nicaragua. We characterized T cell responses in a group of 71 healthy children who had previously experienced one or more natural DENV infections and who, within one year after sample collection, had a subsequent DENV infection that was either symptomatic (n=25) or inapparent (n=46, absence of clinical disease). Thus, our study was designed to investigate the impact of pre-existing DENV specific T cell responses on the clinical outcomes of subsequent DENV infection. We assessed the DENV specific T cell responses using an activation-induced marker assay (AIM). Children who had experienced only one prior DENV infection displayed heterogeneous DENV specific CD4+ and CD8+ T cell frequencies. In contrast, children who had experienced two or more DENV infections showed significantly higher frequencies of DENV specific CD4+ and CD8+ T cells that were associated with inapparent as opposed to symptomatic outcomes in the subsequent DENV infection. Taken together, these findings demonstrate the protective role of DENV specific T cells against symptomatic DENV infection and constitute an advancement toward identifying protective immune correlates against dengue fever and clinical disease.

Protection against symptomatic dengue infection by neutralizing antibodies varies by infection history and infecting serotype

Dengue viruses (DENV1-4) are the most prevalent arboviruses in humans and a major public health concern. Understanding immune mechanisms that modulate DENV infection outcome is critical for vaccine development. Neutralizing antibodies (nAbs) are an essential component of the protective immune response, yet their measurement often relies on a single cellular substrate and partially mature virions, which does not capture the full breadth of neutralizing activity and may lead to biased estimations of nAb potency. Here, we analyze 125 samples collected after one or more DENV infections but prior to subsequent symptomatic or inapparent DENV1, DENV2, or DENV3 infections from a long-standing pediatric cohort study in Nicaragua. By assessing nAb responses using Vero cells with or without DC-SIGN and with mature or partially mature virions, we find that nAb potency and the protective NT50 cutoff are greatly influenced by cell substrate and virion maturation state. Additionally, the correlation between nAb titer and protection from disease depends on prior infection history and infecting serotype. Finally, we uncover variations in nAb composition that contribute to protection from symptomatic infection differently after primary and secondary prior infection. These findings have important implications for identifying antibody correlates of protection for vaccines and natural infections.

Household immunity and individual risk of infection with dengue virus in a prospective, longitudinal cohort study

Although it is known that household infections drive the transmission of dengue virus (DENV), it is unclear how household composition and the immune status of inhabitants affect the individual risk of infection. Most population-based studies to date have focused on paediatric cohorts because more severe forms of dengue mainly occur in children, and the role of adults in dengue transmission is understudied. Here we analysed data from a multigenerational cohort study of 470 households, comprising 2,860 individuals, in Kamphaeng Phet, Thailand, to evaluate risk factors for DENV infection. Using a gradient-boosted regression model trained on annual haemagglutination inhibition antibody titre inputs, we identified 1,049 infections, 90% of which were subclinical. By analysing imputed infections, we found that individual antibody titres, household composition and antibody titres of other members in the same household affect an individual's risk of DENV infection. Those individuals living in households with high average antibody titres, or households with more adults, had a reduced risk of infection. We propose that herd immunity to dengue acts at the household level and may provide insight into the drivers of the recent change in the shifting age distribution of dengue cases in Thailand.

High seroprevalence of antibodies against arboviruses in postpartum women in Salvador, Brazil

Objectives

Arboviruses represent a major challenge to public health in Brazil. Dengue (DENV) virus has been endemic for decades, and the introduction of Zika (2015) and Chikungunya (2014) viruses (CHIKV) has imposed a significant burden on the country. The present study aimed to investigate the seroprevalence of Zika virus (ZIKV), DENV and CHIKV in women in Salvador, Bahia-Brazil.

Methods

Cross-sectional study involving postpartum women admitted to a maternity hospital in Salvador, Brazil. Anti-ZIKV, anti-DENV and anti-CHIKV immunoglobulin G was measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay.

Results

A total of 302 women were enrolled with a median age: 26 years, interquartile range (21-33). Most self-declared as mixed-race or black skin color (92.4%). The seroprevalence was 57% for ZIKV); 91.4% for DENV, and 7.6% for CHIKV. Most participants denied awareness of previous arboviral infection, although 67 (22.3%) reported a previous history of ZIKV infection, 34 (11.1%) DENV infection and 9 (3%) CHIKV infection.

Conclusion

Our data indicate a high prevalence of past ZIKV and DENV infections in the population studied. Most of the participants remain susceptible to future CHIKV infection, highlighting the need for preventive and educational interventions. Our results suggest the need for continuous epidemiological surveillance of arboviral diseases, particularly among women residing in at-risk regions.

Primary exposure to Zika virus increases risk of symptomatic dengue virus infection with serotypes 2, 3, and 4 but not serotype 1

Infection with any of the four dengue virus serotypes (DENV1-4) can protect against or enhance subsequent dengue depending on pre-existing antibodies and the subsequent infecting serotype. Additionally, primary infection with the related flavivirus Zika virus (ZIKV) has been shown to increase DENV2 disease. Here, we measured how prior DENV and ZIKV immunity influenced risk of disease caused by all four serotypes in a pediatric Nicaraguan cohort. Of 3,412 participants in 2022, 10.6% experienced symptomatic DENV infections caused by DENV1 (n=139), DENV4 (n=133), DENV3 (n=54), DENV2 (n=9), or an undetermined serotype (n=39). Longitudinal clinical and serological data were used to define infection histories, and generalized linear and additive models adjusted for age, sex, time since the last infection, cohort year, and repeat measurements were used to predict disease risk. Compared to flavivirus-naïve participants, primary ZIKV infection increased disease risk of DENV4 (relative risk = 2.62, 95% confidence interval: 1.48-4.63) and DENV3 (2.90, 1.34-6.27) but not DENV1 (1.20, 0.72-1.99). Primary DENV infection or a DENV followed by ZIKV infection also increased DENV4 risk. We re-analyzed 19 years of cohort data and demonstrated that prior flavivirus-immunity and pre-existing antibody titer differentially affected disease risk for incoming serotypes, increasing risk of DENV2 and DENV4, protecting against DENV1, and protecting at high titers but enhancing at low titers against DENV3. We thus find that prior ZIKV infection, like prior DENV infection, increases risk of certain DENV serotypes. Cross-reactivity among flaviviruses should be carefully considered when assessing vaccine safety and efficacy.

The association of neutralizing antibodies with protection against symptomatic dengue virus infection varies by serotype, prior infection history, and assay condition

The four dengue virus serotypes (DENV1-4) are the most prevalent arboviruses in humans and a major public health concern worldwide. Understanding immune mechanisms that modulate DENV infection outcome is critical for epidemic preparedness and development of a safe and effective vaccine. Neutralizing antibodies (nAbs) are an essential component of the protective response, yet their measurement often relies on a single cellular substrate and partially mature virions, which do not capture the full breadth of neutralizing activity and may lead to biased estimations of nAb potency. Here, we investigated the characteristics of nAbs associated with protection against dengue cases using samples collected after one or more DENV infections but prior to subsequent symptomatic or inapparent DENV1, DENV2, or DENV3 infections from a long- standing pediatric cohort study in Nicaragua. By assessing nAb responses using Vero cells with or without the attachment factor DC-SIGN and with mature or partially mature virions, we found that nAb potency and the protective NT 50 cutoff were greatly influenced by cell substrate and virion maturation state. Additionally, the correlation between nAb titer and protection from disease depended on an individual's prior infection history and the subsequent infecting DENV serotype. Finally, we uncovered variations in nAbs composition that contributed to protection from symptomatic DENV infection differently after primary and secondary prior infection. These findings have important implications for identifying antibody correlates of protection in the context of vaccines and natural infections.

Asymptomatic dengue infection rate: A systematic literature review

Objectives

Dengue infection is spreading worldwide. The clinical spectrum is broad and includes asymptomatic infections. This review provides an overview of the different proportions of asymptomatic infections described in epidemiological studies according to definitions, study designs, and detection methods.

Methods

Medline and Embase databases were searched without restriction of date or language. Studies were included if they reported data on the incidence or prevalence of asymptomatic dengue infections. The data were summarized and classified according to the definitions of the term 'asymptomatic'.

Results

A total of 74 studies were included. The mean proportion of asymptomatic infections among dengue-infected persons was 54% in 50 included studies. The prevalence of dengue infections detected in healthy persons was 0.2% in 24 included studies. The term 'asymptomatic' has been used to refer to 'clinically undetectable infection', but also to 'undiagnosed infection' or 'mild infection'. Only 8% were clinically undetectable laboratory-confirmed dengue infections.

Conclusion

The proportion of asymptomatic dengue infections varied greatly. Studies proving data on clinically undetectable laboratory-confirmed dengue infections were very few, but provided consistent results of low proportions of asymptomatic infections. These data challenge the assumption that the majority of dengue cases are asymptomatic.

Dengue transmission dynamics prediction by combining metapopulation networks and Kalman filter algorithm

Predicting the specific magnitude and the temporal peak of the epidemic of individual local outbreaks is critical for infectious disease control. Previous studies have indicated that significant differences in spatial transmission and epidemic magnitude of dengue were influenced by multiple factors, such as mosquito population density, climatic conditions, and population movement patterns. However, there is a lack of studies that combine the above factors to explain their complex nonlinear relationships in dengue transmission and generate accurate predictions. Therefore, to study the complex spatial diffusion of dengue, this research combined the above factors and developed a network model for spatiotemporal transmission prediction of dengue fever using metapopulation networks based on human mobility. For improving the prediction accuracy of the epidemic model, the ensemble adjusted Kalman filter (EAKF), a data assimilation algorithm, was used to iteratively assimilate the observed case data and adjust the model and parameters. Our study demonstrated that the metapopulation network-EAKF system provided accurate predictions for city-level dengue transmission trajectories in retrospective forecasts of 12 cities in Guangdong province, China. Specifically, the system accurately predicts local dengue outbreak magnitude and the temporal peak of the epidemic up to 10 wk in advance. In addition, the system predicted the peak time, peak intensity, and total number of dengue cases more accurately than isolated city-specific forecasts. The general metapopulation assimilation framework presented in our study provides a methodological foundation for establishing an accurate system with finer temporal and spatial resolution for retrospectively forecasting the magnitude and temporal peak of dengue fever outbreaks. These forecasts based on the proposed method can be interoperated to better support intervention decisions and inform the public of potential risks of disease transmission.

Estimating Dengue Transmission Intensity in China Using Catalytic Models Based on Serological Data

In recent decades, the global incidence of dengue has risen sharply, with more than 75% of infected people showing mild or no symptoms. Since the year 2000, dengue in China has spread quickly. At this stage, there is an urgent need to fully understand its transmission intensity and spread in China. Serological data provide reliable evidence for symptomatic and recessive infections. Through a literature search, we included 23 studies that collected age-specific serological dengue data released from 1980 to 2021 in China. Fitting four catalytic models to these data, we distinguished the transmission mechanisms by deviation information criterion and estimated force of infection and basic reproduction number (R₀), important parameters for quantifying transmission intensity. We found that transmission intensity varies over age in most of the study populations, and attenuation of antibody protection is identified in some study populations; the R₀ of dengue in China is between 1.04-2.33. Due to the scarceness of the data, the temporal trend cannot be identified, but data shows that transmission intensity weakened from coastal to inland areas and from southern to northern areas in China if assuming it remained temporally steady during the study period. The results should be useful for the effective control of dengue in China.

Dengue incidence and length of viremia by RT-PCR in a prospective observational community contact cluster study from 2005-2009 in Indonesia

BACKGROUND

Dengue has become a major global health threat since being recognized three centuries ago. Important gaps remain in understanding the transmission dynamics of dengue virus (DENV) infection. This study reports the results of a prospective observational cluster study that investigated the incidence of symptomatic and asymptomatic infections and length of viremia among close community contacts of hospitalized DENV-infected patients.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Between 2005 and 2009, dengue-confirmed cases (n = 97) admitted to Hasan Sadikin Hospital in Bandung, Indonesia, were enrolled as index cases. Subsequently, twenty close community contacts (n = 1928) living with and around the index cases were included and followed up for up to 14 days. Body temperature was measured daily; blood samples were collected every 3-4 days and when reported fever. DENV infection was confirmed using Reverse Transcriptase-Polymerase Chain Reaction (RT-PCR), IgM rapid test, and Enzyme-linked Immunosorbent Assay (ELISA). Among the 1928 community contacts, a total of 72 (3.7%) acute DENV infections were diagnosed, which equates to an incidence of 636 cases per 1,000 person-years (95% Confidence interval (CI) 588 to 687 cases per 1,000 person-years). Twenty-nine cases (40%) were symptomatic (22 dengue fever (DF) & 7 dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF)), and 43 (60%) were asymptomatic. Primary and secondary DENV infections were detected in 18 (25%) and 54 (75%) subjects. Among the RT-PCR positives, viremia was observed as early as seven days before fever onset and converted to negative as late as seven days after the onset of fever.

CONCLUSIONS

DENV infections are common among close community contacts of hospitalized dengue patients. The high number of asymptomatic infections and the observation that viremia precedes the onset of fever for up to seven days highlight the importance of unrecognized dengue transmission and the need for improved transmission control.

Challenges and lessons learned from the rapid operationalization of a prospective cohort to study the natural history and neurodevelopmental outcomes of postnatal Zika virus infection among infants and children in rural Guatemala

During the course of the 2015–2017 outbreak of Zika virus (ZIKV) in the Americas, the emerging virus was recognized as a congenital infection that could damage the developing brain. As the Latin American ZIKV outbreak advanced, the scientific and public health community questioned if this newly recognized neurotropic flavivirus could affect the developing brain of infants and young children infected after birth. We report here the study design, methods and the challenges and lessons learned from the rapid operationalization of a prospective natural history cohort study aimed at evaluating the potential neurological and neurodevelopmental effects of postnatal ZIKV infection in infants and young children, which had become epidemic in Central America. This study enrolled a cohort of 500 mothers and their infants, along with nearly 400 children 1.5–3.5 years of age who were born during the initial phase of the ZIKV epidemic in a rural area of Guatemala. Our solutions and lessons learned while tackling real-life challenges may serve as a guide to other researchers carrying out studies of emerging infectious diseases of public health priority in resource-constrained settings.

Incidence of lab-confirmed dengue fever in a pediatric cohort in Delhi, India

Background

Our aim was to estimate the overall and age-specific incidence of lab-confirmed dengue fever using ELISA based assays among children 6 months to 15 years in Delhi.

Methods

We enrolled a cohort of 984 children aged 6 months to <14 years in South Delhi and followed-up weekly for fever for 24 months or till 15 completed years of child-age. Households of the enrolled children were geo-tagged. NS1, IgM and IgG assays were conducted using ELISA method to confirm dengue fever in children with ≥3 consecutive days of fever. Molecular typing was done in a subset of NS1 positive cases to identify the circulating serotypes.

Principal findings

We had a total of 1953 person-years (PY) of follow up. Overall, there were 4208 episodes of fever with peaks during June to November. The overall incidence (95%CI) of fever was 215/100 PY (209 to 222). A total of 74/1250 3-day fever episodes were positive for acute dengue fever (NS1 and/or IgM positive). The overall incidence (95%CI) of acute dengue fever was 37.9 (29.8 to 47.6) per 1000 PY; highest among children aged 5 to 10 years (50.4 per 1000 PY, 95% CI 36.5 to 67.8). Spatial autocorrelation analysis suggested a clustering pattern for the dengue fever cases (Moran’s Index 0.35, z-score 1.8, p = 0.06). Dengue PCR was positive in 16 of the 24 specimens tested; DEN 3 was the predominant serotype identified in 15/24 specimens.

Conclusions

We found a high incidence of dengue fever among under 15-year children with clustering of cases in the community. DEN 3 was the most commonly circulating strain encountered. The findings underscore the need for development of affordable pre-vaccination screening strategy as well as newer dengue vaccines for young children while continuing efforts in vector control.

South Asian countries especially the Indian subcontinent contributes the highest to the global burden of dengue. The number of dengue cases reported in India is likely an underestimate of the actual disease burden and there is a clear lack in the availability of population-based data on incidence of dengue in India. In our pediatric cohort of 984 children aged 6 months to 15 years from Delhi, India, we found a high incidence of lab-confirmed dengue fever, with the highest burden among 5 to 10 year old children. Dengue fever was observed to be highest in the post-monsoon months with significant clustering of cases in the community. DEN 3 was the most commonly circulating strain encountered. Given the high burden in children, the findings highlight the need for strengthening efforts to developing newer dengue vaccines for younger children.

Viral genome-based Zika virus transmission dynamics in a paediatric cohort during the 2016 Nicaragua epidemic

BACKGROUND

Nicaragua experienced a large Zika epidemic in 2016, with up to 50% of the population in Managua infected. With the domesticated Aedes aegypti mosquito as its vector, it is widely assumed that Zika virus transmission occurs within the household and/or via human mobility. We investigated these assumptions by using viral genomes to trace Zika transmission spatially.

METHODS

We analysed serum samples from 119 paediatric Zika cases participating in the long-standing Paediatric Dengue Cohort Study in Managua, which was expanded to include Zika in 2015. An optimal spanning directed tree was constructed by minimizing the differences in viral sequence diversity composition between patient nodes, where low-frequency variants were used to increase the resolution of the inferred Zika outbreak dynamics.

FINDINGS

Out of the 18 houses where pairwise difference in sample collection dates among all the household members was within 30 days, we only found two where viruses from individuals within the same household were up to 10th-most closely linked to each other genetically. We also identified a substantial number of transmission events involving long geographical distances (n=30), as well as potential super-spreading events in the estimated transmission tree.

INTERPRETATION

Our finding highlights that community transmission, often involving long geographical distances, played a much more important role in epidemic spread than within-household transmission.

FUNDING

This study was supported by an NUS startup grant (OMS) and grants R01 AI099631 (AB), P01 AI106695 (EH), P01 AI106695-03S1 (FB), and U19 AI118610 (EH) from the US National Institutes of Health.

Adapting Rapid Diagnostic Tests to Detect Historical Dengue Virus Infections

The only licensed dengue vaccine, Dengvaxia®, increases risk of severe dengue when given to individuals without prior dengue virus (DENV) infection but is protective against future disease in those with prior DENV immunity. The World Health Organization has recommended using rapid diagnostic tests (RDT) to determine history of prior DENV infection and suitability for vaccination. Dengue experts recommend that these assays be highly specific (≥98%) to avoid erroneously vaccinating individuals without prior DENV infection, as well as be sensitive enough (≥95%) to detect individuals with a single prior DENV infection. We evaluated one existing and two newly developed anti-flavivirus RDTs using samples collected >6 months post-infection from individuals in non-endemic and DENV and ZIKV endemic areas. We first evaluated the IgG component of the SD BIOLINE Dengue IgG/IgM RDT, which was developed to assist in confirming acute/recent DENV infections (n=93 samples). When evaluated following the manufacturer's instructions, the SD BIOLINE Dengue RDT had 100% specificity for both non-endemic and endemic samples but low sensitivity for detecting DENV seropositivity (0% non-endemic, 41% endemic). Sensitivity increased (53% non-endemic, 98% endemic) when tests were allowed to run beyond manufacturer recommendations (0.5 up to 3 hours), but specificity decreased in endemic samples (36%). When tests were evaluated using a quantitative reader, optimal specificity could be achieved (≥98%) while still retaining sensitivity at earlier timepoints in non-endemic (44-88%) and endemic samples (31-55%). We next evaluated novel dengue and Zika RDTs developed by Excivion to detect prior DENV or ZIKV infections and reduce cross-flavivirus reactivity (n=207 samples). When evaluated visually, the Excivion Dengue RDT had sensitivity and specificity values of 79%, but when evaluated with a quantitative reader, optimal specificity could be achieved (≥98%) while still maintaining moderate sensitivity (48-75%). The Excivion Zika RDT had high specificity (>98%) and sensitivity (>93%) when evaluated quantitatively, suggesting it may be used alongside dengue RDTs to minimize misclassification due to cross-reactivity. Our findings demonstrate the potential of RDTs to be used for dengue pre-vaccination screening to reduce vaccine-induced priming for severe dengue and show how assay design adaptations as well quantitative evaluation can further improve RDTs for this purpose.

Fatal outcomes of imported dengue fever in adult travelers from non-endemic areas are associated with primary infections

BACKGROUND

The case-fatality rate of dengue in travelers is low. Secondary dengue virus (DENV) infections are considered a risk factor for fatal outcome in endemic populations; however, the impact of secondary infections on mortality in travelers has not been studied systematically. We performed a descriptive analysis of case reports of dengue fatalities in travelers.

METHODS

We searched Medline for clinical case reports, using the free terms and MeSH headings: 'Dengue' OR 'Severe Dengue' AND 'Travel-Related Illness' OR 'travel' AND 'Mortality' OR 'Fatal Outcome'. We analyzed case reports of fatal dengue in returning travelers published from 1995 to 2020, with the objective to detail risk factors for dengue mortality in this population. We verified the authors' classifications of primary or secondary dengue infections; infections were considered as primary by absence of anti-DENV immunoglobulin (Ig)G or by IgM-to-IgG ratios greater than or equal to 1.8 in the first 7 days post symptom onset.

RESULTS

We identified nine detailed reports of dengue with fatal outcome among travelers from non-endemic countries. Eight fatalities were female. The median age was 32 years (range 21-63). Out of nine fatal cases, seven travelers had a primary DENV infection, one had a secondary infection and, in one, these data were not reported. The infecting DENV serotypes were DENV-1 (n = 2), DENV-2 (n = 2) and DENV-3 (n = 3); DENV-1 or 2 (n = 1) and in one case, the serotype could not be determined.

CONCLUSIONS

Dengue-related deaths in travelers are rare. Most dengue cases in travelers are primary infections. Contrary to prevailing conceptions, we found that fatal outcomes of dengue in travelers from non-endemic countries were reported mainly with primary DENV infections. We alert health care providers that primary DENV infections are not always harmless and that in adult travelers from non-endemic countries, primary infections may contribute more to dengue-related mortality than secondary infections.

A prospective, multicentre, cohort study to assess the incidence of dengue illness in households from selected communities in Brazil (2014-2018)

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the incidence of dengue infection across geographically distinct areas of Brazil.

METHODS

This prospective, household-based, cohort study enrolled participants in five areas and followed them up for up to 4 years (2014-2018). Dengue seroprevalence was assessed at each scheduled visit. Suspected dengue cases were identified through enhanced passive and active surveillance. Acute symptomatic dengue infection was confirmed through reverse-transcriptase quantitative polymerase chain reaction in combination with an antigenic assay (non-structural protein 1) and serology.

RESULTS

Among 3300 participants enrolled, baseline seroprevalence was 76.2%, although only 23.3% of participants reported a history of dengue. Of 1284 suspected symptomatic dengue cases detected, 50 (3.9%) were laboratory-confirmed. Based on 8166.5 person-years (PY) of follow-up, the incidence of laboratory-confirmed symptomatic infection (primary endpoint) was 6.1 per 1000 PY (95% confidence interval [CI]: 4.5, 8.1). Incidence varied substantially in different years (1.8-7.4 per 1000 PY). The incidence of inapparent primary dengue infection was substantially higher: 41.7 per 1000 PY (95% CI: 31.1, 54.6).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings, highlighting that the incidence of dengue infection is underestimated in Brazil, will inform the design and implementation of future dengue vaccine trials.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

NCT01751139.

Boosting can explain patterns of fluctuations of ratios of inapparent to symptomatic dengue virus infections

Dengue is the most prevalent arboviral disease worldwide, and the four dengue virus (DENV) serotypes circulate endemically in many tropical and subtropical regions. Numerous studies have shown that the majority of DENV infections are inapparent, and that the ratio of inapparent to symptomatic infections (I/S) fluctuates substantially year-to-year. For example, in the ongoing Pediatric Dengue Cohort Study (PDCS) in Nicaragua, which was established in 2004, the I/S ratio has varied from 16.5:1 in 2006-2007 to 1.2:1 in 2009-2010. However, the mechanisms explaining these large fluctuations are not well understood. We hypothesized that in dengue-endemic areas, frequent boosting (i.e., exposures to DENV that do not lead to extensive viremia and result in a less than fourfold rise in antibody titers) of the immune response can be protective against symptomatic disease, and this can explain fluctuating I/S ratios. We formulate mechanistic epidemiologic models to examine the epidemiologic effects of protective homologous and heterologous boosting of the antibody response in preventing subsequent symptomatic DENV infection. We show that models that include frequent boosts that protect against symptomatic disease can recover the fluctuations in the I/S ratio that we observe, whereas a classic model without boosting cannot. Furthermore, we show that a boosting model can recover the inverse relationship between the number of symptomatic cases and the I/S ratio observed in the PDCS. These results highlight the importance of robust dengue control efforts, as intermediate dengue control may have the potential to decrease the protective effects of boosting.

A murine model of dengue virus infection in suckling C57BL/6 and BALB/c mice

Dengue is a significant public health concern across tropical and subtropical regions worldwide, principally causing disease in children. Very young children are at increased risk of severe manifestations of dengue infection. The mechanism of dengue disease in this population is not fully understood. In this study, we present a murine model of dengue virus primary infection in suckling C57BL/6 and BALB/c mice in order to investigate disease pathogenesis. Three-day-old C57BL/6 mice intraperitoneally infected with DENV-2 NGC were more susceptible to infection than BALB/c mice, showing increased liver enzymes, extended viremia, dissemination to organs and histological alterations in liver and small intestine. Furthermore, the immune response in DENV-infected C57BL/6 mice exhibited a marked Th1 bias compared to BALB/c mice. These findings highlight the possibility of establishing an immunocompetent mouse model of DENV-2 infection in suckling mice that reproduces certain signs of disease observed in humans and that could be used to further study age-related mechanisms of dengue pathogenesis.

Susceptible host availability modulates climate effects on dengue dynamics

Experiments and models suggest that climate affects mosquito-borne disease transmission. However, disease transmission involves complex nonlinear interactions between climate and population dynamics, which makes detecting climate drivers at the population level challenging. By analysing incidence data, estimated susceptible population size, and climate data with methods based on nonlinear time series analysis (collectively referred to as empirical dynamic modelling), we identified drivers and their interactive effects on dengue dynamics in San Juan, Puerto Rico. Climatic forcing arose only when susceptible availability was high: temperature and rainfall had net positive and negative effects respectively. By capturing mechanistic, nonlinear and context-dependent effects of population susceptibility, temperature and rainfall on dengue transmission empirically, our model improves forecast skill over recent, state-of-the-art models for dengue incidence. Together, these results provide empirical evidence that the interdependence of host population susceptibility and climate drives dengue dynamics in a nonlinear and complex, yet predictable way.

Assessing the risk of dengue severity using demographic information and laboratory test results with machine learning

BACKGROUND

Dengue virus causes a wide spectrum of disease, which ranges from subclinical disease to severe dengue shock syndrome. However, estimating the risk of severe outcomes using clinical presentation or laboratory test results for rapid patient triage remains a challenge. Here, we aimed to develop prognostic models for severe dengue using machine learning, according to demographic information and clinical laboratory data of patients with dengue.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Out of 1,581 patients in the National Cheng Kung University Hospital with suspected dengue infections and subjected to NS1 antigen, IgM and IgG, and qRT-PCR tests, 798 patients including 138 severe cases were enrolled in the study. The primary target outcome was severe dengue. Machine learning models were trained and tested using the patient dataset that included demographic information and qualitative laboratory test results collected on day 1 when they sought medical advice. To develop prognostic models, we applied various machine learning methods, including logistic regression, random forest, gradient boosting machine, support vector classifier, and artificial neural network, and compared the performance of the methods. The artificial neural network showed the highest average discrimination area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (0.8324 ± 0.0268) and balance accuracy (0.7523 ± 0.0273). According to the model explainer that analyzed the contributions/co-contributions of the different factors, patient age and dengue NS1 antigenemia were the two most important risk factors associated with severe dengue. Additionally, co-existence of anti-dengue IgM and IgG in patients with dengue increased the probability of severe dengue.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

We developed prognostic models for the prediction of dengue severity in patients, using machine learning. The discriminative ability of the artificial neural network exhibited good performance for severe dengue prognosis. This model could help clinicians obtain a rapid prognosis during dengue outbreaks. However, the model requires further validation using external cohorts in future studies.

Dengue Seroprevalence and Seroconversion in Urban and Rural Populations in Northeastern Thailand and Southern Laos

Dengue is the most rapidly spreading mosquito-borne viral disease in the world. The detection of clinical cases enables us to measure the incidence of dengue infection, whereas serological surveys give insights into the prevalence of infection. This study aimed to determine dengue seroprevalence and seroconversion rates in northeastern Thailand and southern Laos and to assess any association of mosquito control methods and socioeconomic factors with dengue virus (DENV) infection. Cross-sectional seroprevalence surveys were performed in May and November 2019 on the same individuals. Blood samples were collected from one adult and one child, when possible, in each of 720 randomly selected households from two urban and two rural sites in both northeastern Thailand and southern Laos. IgG antibodies against DENV were detected in serum using a commercial enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) kit. Overall, 1071 individuals participated in the study. The seroprevalence rate was high (91.5%) across all 8 study sites. Only age and province were associated with seroprevalence rates. There were 33 seroconversions during the period from May to November, of which seven reported fever. More than half of the seroconversions occurred in the rural areas and in Laos. Dengue seroconversion was significantly associated with young age (<15 years old), female gender, province, and duration of living in the current residence. No socioeconomic factors or mosquito control methods were found to be associated with seroprevalence or seroconversion. Notably, however, the province with most seroconversions had lower diurnal temperature ranges than elsewhere. In conclusion, our study has highlighted the homogeneity of dengue exposure across a wide range of settings and most notably those from rural and urban areas. Dengue can no longer be considered to be solely an urban disease nor necessarily one linked to poverty.

Dengue viremia kinetics in asymptomatic and symptomatic infection

BACKGROUND

Dengue infection is a global health threat. While symptomatic cases contribute to morbidity and mortality, the majority of infected people are asymptomatic but serve as an important reservoir. However, the kinetics of viremia in asymptomatic infections remains unknown.

METHODS

We enrolled 279 hospital-based symptomatic index cases and quantified dengue virus (DENV) RNA at enrollment and at the day of defervescence. To identify asymptomatic cases, 175 household members of index cases were monitored for clinical symptoms during follow-up, and blood was taken twice weekly to test for and quantify DENV RNA until cleared.

RESULTS

We detected DENV in thirteen asymptomatic household members (7.43%). Their DENV serotypes were primarily the same as those of their family index cases. The median peak DENV viremia in asymptomatic subjects was lower than that of symptomatic individuals during the febrile phase, and the viral decay rate was slower in asymptomatic infections.

CONCLUSIONS

DENV level and kinetics in asymptomatic individuals differed significantly from those of symptomatic cases. Despite the lower viremia, the slower decay rate in asymptomatic infections could lead to their prolonging the infectious reservoir. The improvement of transmission control to prevent such long-lived asymptomatic infections from transmitting the DENV is needed.

Cross-serotypically conserved epitope recommendations for a universal T cell-based dengue vaccine

Dengue virus (DENV)-associated disease is a growing threat to public health across the globe. Co-circulating as four different serotypes, DENV poses a unique challenge for vaccine design as immunity to one serotype predisposes a person to severe and potentially lethal disease upon infection from other serotypes. Recent experimental studies suggest that an effective vaccine against DENV should elicit a strong T cell response against all serotypes, which could be achieved by directing T cell responses toward cross-serotypically conserved epitopes while avoiding serotype-specific ones. Here, we used experimentally-determined DENV T cell epitopes and patient-derived DENV sequences to assess the cross-serotypic variability of the epitopes. We reveal a distinct near-binary pattern of epitope conservation across serotypes for a large number of DENV epitopes. Based on the conservation profile, we identify a set of 55 epitopes that are highly conserved in at least 3 serotypes. Most of the highly conserved epitopes lie in functionally important regions of DENV non-structural proteins. By considering the global distribution of human leukocyte antigen (HLA) alleles associated with these DENV epitopes, we identify a potentially robust subset of HLA class I and class II restricted epitopes that can serve as targets for a universal T cell-based vaccine against DENV while covering ~99% of the global population.

Zika virus infection enhances future risk of severe dengue disease

The Zika pandemic sparked intense interest in whether immune interactions among dengue virus serotypes 1 to 4 (DENV1 to -4) extend to the closely related Zika virus (ZIKV). We investigated prospective pediatric cohorts in Nicaragua that experienced sequential DENV1 to -3 (2004 to 2015), Zika (2016 to 2017), and DENV2 (2018 to 2020) epidemics. Risk of symptomatic DENV2 infection and severe disease was elevated by one prior ZIKV infection, one prior DENV infection, or one prior DENV infection followed by one ZIKV infection, compared with being flavivirus-naïve. By contrast, multiple prior DENV infections reduced dengue risk. Further, although high preexisting anti-DENV antibody titers protected against DENV1, DENV3, and ZIKV disease, intermediate titers induced by previous ZIKV or DENV infection enhanced future risk of DENV2 disease and severity, as well as DENV3 severity. The observation that prior ZIKV infection can modulate dengue disease severity like a DENV serotype poses challenges to development of dengue and Zika vaccines.

Colares JK, C. B. Coelho Z, M. C. Araújo F, Dias Schwarcz W, Duarte AC, Borges B, Minguet C, Guignard A. Dengue Infection in Children in Fortaleza, Brazil: A 3-Year School-Based Prospective Cohort Study

Dengue is endemic in Brazil. The dengue surveillance system's reliance on passive reporting may underestimate disease incidence and cannot detect asymptomatic/pauci-symptomatic cases. In this 3-year prospective cohort study (NCT01391819) in 5- to 13-year-old children from nine schools in Fortaleza (N = 2,117), we assessed dengue virus (DENV) infection seroprevalence by IgG indirect ELISA at yearly visits and disease incidence through active and enhanced passive surveillance. Real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) and DENV IgM/IgG capture ELISA were used for diagnosis. We further characterized confirmed and probable cases with a plaque reduction neutralization test. At enrollment, 54.1% (95% CI: 46.6, 61.4) of children were DENV IgG positive. The annual incidence of laboratory-confirmed symptomatic dengue cases was 11.0 (95% CI: 7.3, 14.7), 18.1 (10.4, 25.7), and 10.2 (0.7, 19.7), and of laboratory-confirmed or probable dengue cases with neutralizing antibody profile evocative of dengue exposure was 13.2 (6.6, 19.9), 18.7 (5.3, 32.2), and 8.4 (2.4, 19.2) per 1,000 child-years in 2012, 2013, and 2014, respectively. By RT-qPCR, we identified 14 DENV-4 cases in 2012-2013 and seven DENV-1 cases in 2014. During the course of the study, 32.8% of dengue-naive children experienced a primary infection. Primary inapparent dengue infection was detected in 20.3% (95% CI: 13.6, 29.1) of dengue-naive children in 2012, 8.7% (6.9, 10.9) in 2013, and 5.1% (4.4, 6.0) in 2014. Our results confirmed the high dengue endemicity in Fortaleza, with active and enhanced passive surveillance detecting three to five times more cases than the National System of Disease Notification.

Age and geographic dependence of Zika virus infection during the outbreak on Yap island, 2007

Intensive surveillance of Zika virus infection conducted on Yap Island has provided crucial information on the epidemiological characteristics of the virus, but the rate of infection and medical attendance stratified by age and geographical location of the epidemic have yet to be fully clarified. In the present study, we reanalyzed surveillance data reported in a previous study. Likelihood-based Bayesian inference was used to gauge the age and geographically dependent force of infection and age-dependent reporting rate, with unobservable variables imputed by the data augmentation method. The inferred age-dependent component of the force of infection was suggested to be up to 3-4 times higher among older adults than among children. The age-dependent reporting rate ranged from 0.7% (5-9 years old) to 3.3% (50-54 years old). The proportion of serologically confirmed cases among total probable or confirmed cases was estimated to be 44.9%. The cumulative incidence of infection varied by municipality: Median values were over 80% in multiple locations (Gagil, Tomil, and Weloy), but relatively low values (below 50%) were derived in other locations. However, the possibility of a comparably high incidence of infection was not excluded even in municipalities with the lowest estimates. The results suggested a high degree of heterogeneity in the Yap epidemic. The force of infection and reporting rate were higher among older age groups, and this discrepancy implied that the demographic patterns were remarkably different between all infected and medically attended individuals. A higher reporting rate may have reflected more severe clinical presentation among adults. The symptomatic ratio in dengue cases is known to correlate with age, and our findings presumably indicate a similar tendency in Zika virus disease.

The spectrum of disease severity, the burden of hospitalizations and associated risk factors in confirmed dengue among persons of all ages: findings from a population based longitudinal study from Barbados

Background: Dengue can be severe and potentially fatal in a small proportion. Risk factors for severe dengue have been highlighted but long term population based study is lacking. We assesses the severity and hospitalization in dengue.Methods: This is a longitudinal population based prospective study of all persons with confirmed dengue in Barbados during the years 2006 through 2015. Most recent WHO criteria were used for classifying dengue severity. Disease severity and hospitalization need were two main outcomes.Results: There were 2939 ambulatory and 1234 hospitalized cases. Compared to those in the age group 16-60 years, the risk of hospitalization was higher among persons over 61 years (RR = 1.8) and those under 16 years (RR = 1.7). Overall, 190 (4.4%), 771 (17.8%) and 3202 (73.7%) were classified as severe and dengue with and without warning signs respectively. The risk of severe dengue was higher in the over 60 years age group compared to the 16-60 years (RR = 1.97). Primary infection was at a lower risk of severe dengue compared to secondary infection (RR = 0.46).Conclusions: Less than 5% of dengue presents with severe disease, the risk being highest among the elderly and those with previous dengue.

Effective control of early Zika virus replication by Dengue immunity is associated to the length of time between the 2 infections but not mediated by antibodies

Little is known about the contribution of virus-specific and cross-reacting antibodies (Abs) or the cellular immune response generated by a primary dengue (DENV) infection on the course of a secondary zika (ZIKV) infection in vivo. Here we show that the length of time between DENV/ZIKV infections has a qualitative impact on controlling early ZIKV replication. Depletion of DENV2-specific Abs in sera confirmed that those type-specific Abs do not contribute to ZIKV control. We show that the magnitude and durability of the neutralizing antibodies (nAbs) induced by a secondary ZIKV infection is modest compared to the response induced after a secondary heterologous DENV infection. Our in vivo results are showing a complex interplay between the cellular and innate immune responses characterized by a high frequency of plasmacytoid dendritic cells (pDC) correlating with an increase in the frequency of DENV antigen specific T cells and a significant control of ZIKV replication which is time dependent. Taken together, our results suggest that early after ZIKV infection other mechanisms such as the innate and cellular immune responses may play a predominant role in controlling ZIKV replication. Regardless of the time elapsed between infections there was no evidence of in vivo antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE) of ZIKV by DENV immunity. These findings have pivotal implications while interpreting ZIKV pathogenesis in flavivirus-experimented populations, diagnostic results interpretation and vaccine designs and schedules among others.

From our previous work in non-human primates and others using humans, we believe that previous DENV immunity confers some degree of protection against ZIKV infection. However, at least two highly relevant questions remain unanswered. One is precisely if the time between primary DENV and a subsequent ZIKV infections may play a role in the degree of protection conferred by DENV immunity. The second question is related to the mechanisms of cross-protection. In this work we provide evidences that a period of 12 months between DENV and ZIKV infections has a significant impact controlling ZIKV replication compared to a shorter period of 3 months. We also provide evidences that the pre-existing DENV Abs play no role controlling early ZIKV replication. Our results strongly suggest that the mechanisms controlling ZIKV replication are related to the complex interaction between the innate and the cellular immune responses. Our results have significant implications for vaccine design and schedules.

Maternal Anti-Dengue IgG Fucosylation Predicts Susceptibility to Dengue Disease in Infants

Infant mortality from dengue disease is a devastating global health burden that could be minimized with the ability to identify susceptibility for severe disease prior to infection. Although most primary infant dengue infections are asymptomatic, maternally derived anti-dengue immunoglobulin G (IgGs) present during infection can trigger progression to severe disease through antibody-dependent enhancement mechanisms. Importantly, specific characteristics of maternal IgGs that herald progression to severe infant dengue are unknown. Here, we define ≥10% afucosylation of maternal anti-dengue IgGs as a risk factor for susceptibility of infants to symptomatic dengue infections. Mechanistic experiments show that afucosylation of anti-dengue IgGs promotes FcγRIIIa signaling during infection, in turn enhancing dengue virus replication in FcγRIIIa+ monocytes. These studies identify a post-translational modification of anti-dengue IgGs that correlates with risk for symptomatic infant dengue infections and define a mechanism by which afucosylated antibodies and FcγRIIIa enhance dengue infections.

A cohort study to assess the incidence of dengue, Brazil, 2014-2018

The present cohort study was set up with the aim of determining the incidence of dengue among children and adolescents, from 2 to 16 years of age, living in Araraquara, South-Eastern Brazil, a city classified as a mid-level endemicity location for dengue. Enrollment took place from September 2014 to March 2015. Baseline socio-demographic data were collected, and a blood sample from the participant was drawn, for dengue serology. Families were contacted weekly for fever surveillance. If the child developed fever, a nurse visited the household to collect a blood sample. PCR, NS1 and IgM were used for dengue diagnosis. Parents or legal guardians of participating children provided a written informed consent. 3,514 children and adolescents were enrolled in the cohort. Dengue baseline seroprevalence was 12.2% (95%CI: 11.1 - 13.3). The incidence density of symptomatic dengue was 8.94 per 100 person/years in the first year of follow-up, 0.58 in the second, and 0.19 in the fourth. No cases were confirmed in the third year. Incidence was associated with age, sex, baseline seroprevalence and with living in a house as opposed to an apartment. This study provides relevant information on the epidemiology of dengue in mid-level transmission settings that may be useful to policymakers in the evaluation of control strategies.

Cost-effectiveness of community mobilization (Camino Verde) for dengue prevention in Nicaragua and Mexico: A cluster randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND

We assessed the cost-effectiveness of Camino Verde, a community-based mobilization strategy to prevent and control dengue and other mosquito-borne diseases. A cluster-randomized controlled trial in Managua, Nicaragua, and in three coastal regions in Guerrero, Mexico (75 intervention and 75 control clusters), Camino Verde used non-governmental community health workers, called brigadistas, to support community mobilization. This donor-funded trial demonstrated reductions of 29.5% (95% confidence interval, CI: 3.8%-55.3%) on dengue infections and 24.7% (CI: 1.8%-51.2%) on self-reported cases.

METHODS

We estimated program costs through a micro-costing approach and semi-structured questionnaires. We show results as incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for costs per disability-adjusted life-year (DALYs) averted and conducted probabilistic sensitivity analyses.

FINDINGS

The Camino Verde trial spent US$16.72 in Mexico and $7.47 in Nicaragua per person annually. We found an average of 910 (CI: 487-1 353) and 500 (CI: 250-760) dengue cases averted annually per million population in Mexico and Nicaragua, respectively, compared to control communities. The ICER in Mexico was US$29 618 (CI: 13 869-66 898) per DALY averted, or 3.0 times per capita GDP. For Nicaragua, the ICER was US$29 196 (CI: 14294-72181) per DALY averted, or 16.9 times per capita GDP.

INTERPRETATION

Camino Verde, as implemented in the research context, was marginally cost-effective in Mexico, and not cost-effective in Nicaragua, from a healthcare sector perspective. Nicaragua's low per capita GDP and the use of grant-funded management personnel weakened the cost-effectiveness results. Achieving efficiencies by incorporating Camino Verde activities into existing public health programs would make Camino Verde cost-effective.

Key Findings and Comparisons From Analogous Case-Cluster Studies for Dengue Virus Infection Conducted in Machala, Ecuador, and Kamphaeng Phet, Thailand

Dengue viruses (DENV) pose a significant and increasing threat to human health across broad regions of the globe. Currently, prevention, control, and treatment strategies are limited. Promising interventions are on the horizon, including multiple vaccine candidates under development and a renewed and innovative focus on controlling the vector, Aedes aegypti. However, significant gaps persist in our understanding of the similarities and differences in DENV epidemiology across regions of potential implementation and evaluation. In this manuscript, we highlight and compare findings from two analogous cluster-based studies for DENV transmission and pathogenesis conducted in Thailand and Ecuador to identify key features and questions for further pursuit. Despite a remarkably similar incidence of DENV infection among enrolled neighborhood contacts at the two sites, we note a higher occurrence of secondary infection and severe illness in Thailand compared to Ecuador. A higher force of infection in Thailand, defined as the incidence of infection among susceptible individuals, is suggested by the higher number of captured Aedes mosquitoes per household, the increasing proportion of asymptomatic infections with advancing age, and the high proportion of infections identified as secondary-type infections by serology. These observations should be confirmed in long-term, parallel prospective cohort studies conducted across regions, which would advantageously permit characterization of baseline immune status (susceptibility) and contemporaneous assessment of risks and risk factors for dengue illness.

Considerations for the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals for dengue

Dengue circulates endemically in many tropical and subtropical regions. In 2012, the World Health Organization (WHO) set out goals to reduce dengue mortality and morbidity by 50% and 25%, respectively, between 2010 and 2020. These goals will not be met. This is, in part, due to existing interventions being insufficiently effective to prevent spread. Further, complex and variable patterns of disease presentation coupled with imperfect surveillance systems mean that even tracking changes in burden is rarely possible. As part of the Sustainable Development Goals, WHO will propose new dengue-specific goals for 2030. The 2030 goals provide an opportunity for focused action on tackling dengue burden but should be carefully developed to be ambitious but also technically feasible. Here we discuss the potential for clearly defined case fatality rates and the rollout of new and effective intervention technologies to form the foundation of these future goals. Further, we highlight how the complexity of dengue epidemiology limits the feasibility of goals that instead target dengue outbreaks.

Characterization of dengue cases among patients with an acute illness, Central Department, Paraguay

BACKGROUND

In 2018, Paraguay experienced a large dengue virus (DENV) outbreak. The primary objective of this study was to characterize dengue cases in the Central Department, where the majority of cases occur, and identify factors associated with DENV infection.

METHODS

Patients were enrolled from January-May 2018 if they presented with a suspected arboviral illness. Acute-phase specimens (≤8 days after symptom onset) were tested using rRT-PCR, a rapid diagnostic test for DENV nonstructural protein 1 (NS1) and anti-DENV IgM and IgG, and ELISA for IgG against NS1 from Zika virus (ZIKV).

RESULTS

A total of 231 patients were enrolled (95.2% adults) at two sites: emergency care and an outpatient clinical site. Patients included 119 (51.5%) dengue cases confirmed by rRT-PCR (n = 115, 96.6%) and/or the detection of NS1 and anti-DENV IgM (n = 4, 3.4%). DENV-1 was the predominant serotype (109/115, 94.8%). Epidemiologically, dengue cases and non-dengue cases were similar, though dengue cases were less likely to reside in a house/apartment or report a previous dengue case. Clinical and laboratory findings associated with dengue included red eyes, absence of sore throat, leucopenia and thrombocytopenia. At an emergency care site, 26% of dengue cases (26/100) required hospitalization. In univariate analysis, hospitalization was associated with increased viral load, anti-DENV IgG, and thrombocytopenia. Among dengue cases that tested positive for IgG against ZIKV NS1, the odds of DENV NS1 detection in the acute phase were decreased 10-fold (OR 0.1, 0.0-0.3).

CONCLUSIONS

Findings from a predominantly adult population demonstrate clinical and laboratory factors associated with DENV infections and the potential severity of dengue in this group. The combination of viral load and specific IgG antibodies warrant further study as a prognostic to identify patients at risk for severe disease.

Dengue infection and advances in dengue vaccines for children

Dengue viruses are endemic in most tropical and subtropical countries where they produce disease ranging from a mild fever to a severe, potentially fatal vascular permeability syndrome. We reviewed the status of development and testing in children of three vaccines designed to protect against the four dengue viruses. The first dengue virus vaccine, Dengvaxia, now licensed in 20 endemic countries, the EU and the USA, provides protection against severe dengue in seropositive individuals but increases the risk for naive recipients to develop severe dengue and to be hospitalised. We discuss mechanisms and implications of shortcomings of the licensed vaccine and describe the structure and attributes of two other dengue virus vaccines. Based upon human dengue challenge studies, one of these vaccines promises to deliver solid, long-lasting immunity after a single dose. Because dengue virus infections are ubiquitous in residents and visitors to tropical countries, in the absence of a protective vaccine paediatricians should recognise the early signs and clinical presentation of severe dengue, understand its pathophysiology and appropriate management.

Force of Infection and True Infection Rate of Dengue in Singapore: Implications for Dengue Control and Management

National data on dengue notifications do not capture all dengue infections and do not reflect the true intensity of disease transmission. To assess the true dengue infection rate and disease control efforts in Singapore, we conducted age-stratified serosurveys among residents after a 2013 outbreak that was the largest dengue outbreak on record. The age-weighted prevalence of dengue immunoglobulin G among residents was 49.8% (95% confidence interval: 48.4, 51.1) in 2013 and 48.6% (95% confidence interval: 47.0, 50.0) in 2017; prevalence increased with age. Combining these data with those from previous serosurveys, the year-on-year estimates of the dengue force of infection from 1930 to 2017 revealed a significant decrease from the late 1960s to the mid-1990s, after which the force of infection remained stable at approximately 10 per 1,000 persons per year. The reproduction number (R₀) had also declined since the 1960s. The reduction in dengue transmission may be attributed to the sustained national vector program and partly to a change in the age structure of the population. The improved estimated ratio of notified cases to true infections, from 1:14 in 2005–2009 to 1:6 in 2014–2017, signifies that the national notification system, which relies on diagnosed cases, has improved over time. The data also suggest that the magnitudes of dengue epidemics cannot be fairly compared across calendar years and that the current disease control program remains applicable.

Recent advances in understanding dengue

This is a selective review of recent publications on dengue clinical features, epidemiology, pathogenesis, and vaccine development placed in a context of observations made over the past half century. Four dengue viruses (DENVs) are transmitted by urban cycle mosquitoes causing diseases whose nature and severity are influenced by interacting factors such as virus, age, immune status of the host, and human genetic variability. A phenomenon that controls the kinetics of DENV infection, antibody-dependent enhancement, best explains the correlation of the vascular permeability syndrome with second heterotypic DENV infections and infection in the presence of passively acquired antibodies. Based on growing evidence in vivo and in vitro, the tissue-damaging DENV non-structural protein 1 (NS1) is responsible for most of the pathophysiological features of severe dengue. This review considers the contribution of hemophagocytic histiocytosis syndrome to cases of severe dengue, the role of movement of humans in dengue epidemiology, and modeling and planning control programs and describes a country-wide survey for dengue infections in Bangladesh and efforts to learn what controls the clinical outcome of dengue infections. Progress and problems with three tetravalent live-attenuated vaccines are reviewed. Several research mysteries remain: why is the risk of severe disease during second heterotypic DENV infection so low, why is the onset of vascular permeability correlated with defervescence, and what are the crucial components of protective immunity?

A populational-based birth cohort study in a low-income urban area in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: implementation and description of the characteristics of the study

A comprehensive cohort study including an entomological surveillance component can contribute to our knowledge of clinical aspects and transmission patterns of arbovirosis. This article describes the implementation of a populational-based birth cohort study that included an entomological surveillance component, and its associated challenges in a low-income community of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The participants were recruited in two periods: from 2012 to 2014, and from 2015 to 2017. The children had scheduled pediatric consultations and in case of fever. Epidemiological, clinical data and biological samples were collected at pediatric visits. Active febrile surveillance was performed by telephone calls, social networking, message apps, and household visits. A total of 387 newborns and 332 new children were included during the first and second recruitment periods, respectively. By July 2017, there were 451 children on follow-up. During the study, 2,759 pediatric visits were performed: 1,783 asymptomatic and 976 febrile/rash consultations. The number of febrile or rash consultations increased 3.5-fold after the use of media tools for surveillance. No temporal pattern, seasonality or peak of febrile cases was observed during the study period. A total of 10,105 adult mosquitoes (including 3,523 Aedes spp. and 6,582 Culex quinquefasciatus) and 46,047 Aedes eggs were collected from households, schools, and key sites. Although challenging, this structured sentinel populational-based birth cohort is relevant to the knowledge of risks and awareness of emerging pathogens.

Seroprevalence and incidence of primary dengue infections among children in a rural region of Maharashtra, Western India

Background

Dengue infections have become a huge threat to public health systems in developing countries. Data on seroprevalence and incidence of dengue infections are lacking from rural regions of India. The objective of present study was to investigate the seroprevalence and incidence of dengue infection utilizing repeated serosurveys from a rural region of Maharashtra, Western India.

Methods

In the present study, 819 children between ages 5 to 15 years from 21 villages in Pune District of Maharashtra, India were sampled in 2014 and 2016. The sera were tested for the presence of dengue specific IgG using an indirect IgG ELISA kit.

Results

Overall seroprevalence of dengue was 15.3% (95% confidence intervals (CI) 12.9–17.8%) in 2014 and 20.5% (95% CI 17.8–23.4%) in 2016. Among the 694 children who were seronegative at baseline (2014), 78 seroconverted. Overall incidence rate of primary dengue was 54.2 infections/1000 children years (95% CI 43.0–67.3). Incidence of primary dengue infection was higher in children from urbanized villages compared to rural villages (Incidence rate ratio (IRR) 2.6 (95% CI 1.3–5.2)). In rural villages, incidence of primary dengue infection was higher in children aged 10 years or above as compared to those aged below 10 years (IRR 9.75 (95% CI 1.21–77.9).

Conclusions

The study provides the incidence rates of primary dengue infections from a rural region of India. More multi centric studies investigating the incidence of dengue will provide accurate estimate of incidence of dengue and help formulate well directed policies. The results also suggest that urbanization and transitions in demographic settings might favour dengue outbreaks in rural regions and these regions need to be targeted for vector control measures.

Effects of infection history on dengue virus infection and pathogenicity

The understanding of immunological interactions among the four dengue virus (DENV) serotypes and their epidemiological implications is often hampered by the lack of individual-level infection history. Using a statistical framework that infers full infection history, we analyze a prospective pediatric cohort in Nicaragua to characterize how infection history modulates the risks of DENV infection and subsequent clinical disease. After controlling for age, one prior infection is associated with 54% lower, while two or more are associated with 91% higher, risk of a new infection, compared to DENV-naive children. Children >8 years old have 55% and 120% higher risks of infection and subsequent disease, respectively, than their younger peers. Among children with ≥1 prior infection, intermediate antibody titers increase, whereas high titers lower, the risk of subsequent infection, compared with undetectable titers. Such complex dependency needs to be considered in the design of dengue vaccines and vaccination strategies.

Prior dengue virus infection and risk of Zika: A pediatric cohort in Nicaragua

BACKGROUND

Zika virus (ZIKV) emerged in northeast Brazil in 2015 and spread rapidly across the Americas, in populations that have been largely exposed to dengue virus (DENV). The impact of prior DENV infection on ZIKV infection outcome remains unclear. To study this potential impact, we analyzed the large 2016 Zika epidemic in Managua, Nicaragua, in a pediatric cohort with well-characterized DENV infection histories.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Symptomatic ZIKV infections (Zika cases) were identified by real-time reverse transcription PCR and serology in a community-based cohort study that follows approximately 3,700 children aged 2-14 years old. Annual blood samples were used to identify clinically inapparent ZIKV infections using a novel, well-characterized serological assay. Multivariable Poisson regression was used to examine the relation between prior DENV infection and incidence of symptomatic and inapparent ZIKV infection. The generalized-growth method was used to estimate the effective reproduction number. From January 1, 2016, to February 28, 2017, 560 symptomatic ZIKV infections and 1,356 total ZIKV infections (symptomatic and inapparent) were identified, for an overall incidence of 14.0 symptomatic infections (95% CI: 12.9, 15.2) and 36.5 total infections (95% CI: 34.7, 38.6) per 100 person-years. Effective reproduction number estimates ranged from 3.3 to 3.4, depending on the ascending wave period. Incidence of symptomatic and total ZIKV infections was higher in females and older children. Analysis of the effect of prior DENV infection was performed on 3,027 participants with documented DENV infection histories, of which 743 (24.5%) had experienced at least 1 prior DENV infection during cohort follow-up. Prior DENV infection was inversely associated with risk of symptomatic ZIKV infection in the total cohort population (incidence rate ratio [IRR]: 0.63; 95% CI: 0.48, 0.81; p < 0.005) and with risk of symptomatic presentation given ZIKV infection (IRR: 0.62; 95% CI: 0.44, 0.86) when adjusted for age, sex, and recent DENV infection (1-2 years before ZIKV infection). Recent DENV infection was significantly associated with decreased risk of symptomatic ZIKV infection when adjusted for age and sex, but not when adjusted for prior DENV infection. Prior or recent DENV infection did not affect the rate of total ZIKV infections. Our findings are limited to a pediatric population and constrained by the epidemiology of the site.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings support that prior DENV infection may protect individuals from symptomatic Zika. More research is needed to address the possible immunological mechanism(s) of cross-protection between ZIKV and DENV and whether DENV immunity also modulates other ZIKV infection outcomes such as neurological or congenital syndromes.

The PAGODAS protocol: pediatric assessment group of dengue and Aedes saliva protocol to investigate vector-borne determinants of Aedes-transmitted arboviral infections in Cambodia

BACKGROUND

Mosquito-borne arboviruses, like dengue virus, continue to cause significant global morbidity and mortality, particularly in Southeast Asia. When the infectious mosquitoes probe into human skin for a blood meal, they deposit saliva containing a myriad of pharmacologically active compounds, some of which alter the immune response and influence host receptivity to infection, and consequently, the establishment of the virus. Previous reports have highlighted the complexity of mosquito vector-derived factors and immunity in the success of infection. Cumulative evidence from animal models and limited data from humans have identified various vector-derived components, including salivary components, that are co-delivered with the pathogen and play an important role in the dissemination of infection. Much about the roles and effects of these vector-derived factors remain to be discovered.

METHODS/DESIGN

We describe a longitudinal, pagoda (community)-based pediatric cohort study to evaluate the burden of dengue virus infection and document the immune responses to salivary proteins of Aedes aegypti, the mosquito vector of dengue, Zika, and chikungunya viruses. The study includes community-based seroprevalence assessments in the peri-urban town of Chbar Mon in Kampong Speu Province, Cambodia. The study aims to recruit 771 children between the ages of 2 and 9 years for a three year period of longitudinal follow-up, including twice per year (rainy and dry season) serosurveillance for dengue seroconversion and Ae. aegypti salivary gland homogenate antibody intensity determinations by ELISA assays. Diagnostic tests for acute dengue, Zika and chikungunya viral infections will be performed by RT-PCR.

DISCUSSION

This study will serve as a foundation for further understanding of mosquito saliva immunity and its impact on Aedes-transmitted arboviral diseases endemic to Cambodia.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

NCT03534245 registered on 23 May 2018.

Protective versus pathologic pre-exposure cytokine profiles in dengue virus infection

Background

Hyperendemic circulation of all four types of dengue virus (DENV-1-4) has expanded globally, fueling concern for increased incidence of severe dengue. While the majority of DENV infections are subclinical, epidemiologic studies suggest that type-cross-reactive immunity can influence disease outcome in subsequent infections. The mechanisms controlling these differential clinical outcomes remain poorly defined.

Methodology/Principal findings

Blood samples were collected from a cohort of school-aged Thai children who subsequently experienced a subclinical DENV infection or developed dengue illness. PBMC collected prior to infection were stimulated in vitro with DENV and the secretion of 30 cytokines was measured using a multiplexed, bead-based array. Significant differences were found in cytokine production based on both the type of DENV used for stimulation and the occurrence of clinical illness. Secretion of IL-15 and MCP-1 was significantly higher by PBMC of subjects who later developed symptomatic DENV infection. In addition, IL-6 was produced by PBMC from all subjects who subsequently developed symptomatic infection, versus 59% of subjects who had subclinical infection. Secretion of IL-12, IL-2R, MIP-1α, RANTES, GM-CSF, and TNFα was significantly lower by PBMC from subjects with symptomatic infection.

Conclusions/Significance

These data demonstrate significant differences in pre-existing immune responses to DENV associated with the clinical outcome of subsequent infection. The finding of higher levels of some cytokines in subjects with symptomatic infection and higher levels of other cytokines in subjects with subclinical infection supports the existence of both protective and pathologic immune profiles. Clinical-immunological correlations identified in the context of natural DENV infection may be useful for evaluating immune responses to dengue vaccines.

Dengue is one of the most prevalent mosquito-borne infectious diseases worldwide. It is caused by one of four viruses, types 1–4, and ranges in severity from subclinical (mild or no symptoms) to dengue fever (febrile illness with headache and bone pain), or less frequently, dengue hemorrhagic fever, where patients experience leaky blood vessels, sometimes significant bleeding, and may be severe enough to cause death. While many risk factors have been associated with development of severe dengue, sequential infection with different virus types is a major factor, implying that the immune response generated after an initial infection is partly responsible for making subsequent exposure clinically worse. This study sought to identify profiles of immune markers that correlate with increased or decreased risk of dengue. Using samples from individuals ~5 months prior to dengue virus infection, who later experienced either subclinical infection or overt disease, we modeled virus exposure in vitro and compared the production of various immune proteins between the two outcome groups. Three of the proteins studied were produced at higher levels by subjects who subsequently had dengue, and six of the proteins were produced at higher levels by subjects who subsequently had subclinical infection. These results help define what constitutes beneficial versus potentially harmful immune responses, aiding in the design of effective dengue vaccines.

Factors Associated with Dengue Virus Infection and Reinfection in Asymptomatic Children in Two Colombian Municipalities

Dengue is the most important arbovirosis in the world. In this study, we assessed the knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAP) regarding dengue in parents from two small Colombian municipalities in the Cundinamarca Province. Parents and their healthy children from 4 to 14 years of age were included in some public elementary schools. After a medical examination, blood samples were taken for diagnosis of dengue using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (capture immunoglobulin M and capture immunoglobulin G [IgG], indirect IgG and detection non-structural viral protein 1) and detection of viral RNA by reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction. In addition, a KAP survey was applied to the children's parents or tutors. The indirect IgG test determined that of the 347 examined children, 87.9% had a previous infection with the dengue virus (DENV), 12.7% of them were positive for viral RNA (asymptomatic infection), and 32.0% presented reinfections. Risk factors evaluation showed that children aged 8 years and older living in the municipalities for more than 7 years were more likely to be infected or reinfected by DENV. In the same way, poor nutrition, lack of water supply, sewer service, or waste disposal services could raise the likelihood of dengue infections. The surveys indicated that parents have unhealthy practices and a low knowledge about the transmission of the disease, which could result in an increase of mosquito breeding sites, allowing sustained dengue transmission.

Epidemiology of dengue and other arboviruses in a cohort of school children and their families in Yucatan, Mexico: Baseline and first year follow-up

Dengue is the most prevalent mosquito-borne viral disease of humans and is caused by the four serotypes of dengue virus. To estimate the incidence of dengue and other arboviruses, we analyzed the baseline and first year follow-up of a prospective school-based cohort study and their families in three cities in the state of Yucatan, Mexico. Through enhanced surveillance activities, acute febrile illnesses in the participants were detected and yearly blood samples were collected to evaluate dengue infection incidence. A Cox model was fitted to identify hazard ratios of arboviral infections in the first year of follow-up of the cohort. The incidence of dengue symptomatic infections observed during the first year of follow-up (2015-2016) was 3.5 cases per 1,000 person-years (95% CI: 1.9, 5.9). The incidence of dengue infections was 33.9 infections per 1,000 person-years (95% CI: 31.7, 48.0). The majority of dengue infections and seroconversions were observed in the younger age groups (≤ 14 years old). Other arboviruses were circulating in the state of Yucatan during the study period. The incidence of symptomatic chikungunya infections was 8.6 per 1,000 person-years (95% CI: 5.8, 12.3) and the incidence of symptomatic Zika infections was 2.3 per 1,000 person-years (95% CI: 0.9, 4.5). Our model shows that having a dengue infection during the first year of follow-up was significantly associated with being female, living in Ticul or Progreso, and being dengue naïve at baseline. Age was not significantly associated with the outcome, it was confounded by prior immunity to dengue that increases with age. This is the first report of a cohort in Latin America that provides incidence estimates of the three arboviruses co-circulating in all age groups. This study provides important information for understanding the epidemiology of dengue and other arboviruses and better informing public health policies.

The use of longitudinal cohorts for studies of dengue viral pathogenesis and protection

In this review, we describe how longitudinal prospective community-based, school-based, and household-based cohort studies contribute to improving our knowledge of viral disease, focusing specifically on contributions to understanding and preventing dengue. We describe how longitudinal cohorts enable measurement of essential disease parameters and risk factors; provide insights into biological correlates of protection and disease risk; enable rapid application of novel biological and statistical technologies; lead to development of new interventions and inform vaccine trial design; serve as sentinels in outbreak conditions and facilitate development of critical diagnostic assays; enable holistic studies on disease in the context of other infections, comorbidities, and environmental risk factors; and build research capacity that strengthens national and global public health response and disease surveillance.