Concerted Efforts to Control or Eliminate Neglected Tropical Diseases: How Much Health Will Be Gained?

Reducing the Antigen Prevalence Target Threshold for Stopping and Restarting Mass Drug Administration for Lymphatic Filariasis Elimination: A Model-Based Cost-effectiveness Simulation in Tanzania, India and Haiti

BACKGROUND

The Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis (GPELF) aims to reduce and maintain infection levels through mass drug administration (MDA), but there is evidence of ongoing transmission after MDA in areas where Culex mosquitoes are the main transmission vector, suggesting that a more stringent criterion is required for MDA decision making in these settings.

METHODS

We use a transmission model to investigate how a lower prevalence threshold (<1% antigenemia [Ag] prevalence compared with <2% Ag prevalence) for MDA decision making would affect the probability of local elimination, health outcomes, the number of MDA rounds, including restarts, and program costs associated with MDA and surveys across different scenarios. To determine the cost-effectiveness of switching to a lower threshold, we simulated 65% and 80% MDA coverage of the total population for different willingness to pay per disability-adjusted life-year averted for India ($446.07), Tanzania ($389.83), and Haiti ($219.84).

RESULTS

Our results suggest that with a lower Ag threshold, there is a small proportion of simulations where extra rounds are required to reach the target, but this also reduces the need to restart MDA later in the program. For 80% coverage, the lower threshold is cost-effective across all baseline prevalences for India, Tanzania, and Haiti. For 65% MDA coverage, the lower threshold is not cost-effective due to additional MDA rounds, although it increases the probability of local elimination. Valuing the benefits of elimination to align with the GPELF goals, we find that a willingness to pay per capita government expenditure of approximately $1000-$4000 for 1% increase in the probability of local elimination would be required to make a lower threshold cost-effective.

CONCLUSIONS

Lower Ag thresholds for stopping MDAs generally mean a higher probability of local elimination, reducing long-term costs and health impacts. However, they may also lead to an increased number of MDA rounds required to reach the lower threshold and, therefore, increased short-term costs. Collectively, our analyses highlight that lower target Ag thresholds have the potential to assist programs in achieving lymphatic filariasis goals.

Mental health and neglected tropical diseases - the neglected dimension of burden: identifying the challenges and understanding the burden

Mental health co-morbidity and the Neglected Tropical Diseases (NTDs) has been highlighted as a major component of the ill health. The impact of mental illness is considered to be significantly underestimated in the calculations of the overall Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs). This commentary discusses the DALY burden of anxiety, depression and associated stigma of NTDs. The economic losses incurred as a result of mental health conditions is assessed, and the impact on caregivers and families. It recommends that mental health care is incorporated into NTDs programme planning and implementation. Priority research is the estimation of the NTD burden of depressive and anxiety disorders and neuropsychiatric conditions of NTDs and an evaluation of the economic costs of mental illness derived from NTDs causation.

Modelling morbidity for neglected tropical diseases: the long and winding road from cumulative exposure to long-term pathology

Reducing the morbidities caused by neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) is a central aim of ongoing disease control programmes. The broad spectrum of pathogens under the umbrella of NTDs lead to a range of negative health outcomes, from malnutrition and anaemia to organ failure, blindness and carcinogenesis. For some NTDs, the most severe clinical manifestations develop over many years of chronic or repeated infection. For these diseases, the association between infection and risk of long-term pathology is generally complex, and the impact of multiple interacting factors, such as age, co-morbidities and host immune response, is often poorly quantified. Mathematical modelling has been used for many years to gain insights into the complex processes underlying the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases; however, long-term morbidities associated with chronic or cumulative exposure are generally not incorporated into dynamic models for NTDs. Here we consider the complexities and challenges for determining the relationship between cumulative pathogen exposure and morbidity at the individual and population levels, drawing on case studies for trachoma, schistosomiasis and foodborne trematodiasis. We explore potential frameworks for explicitly incorporating long-term morbidity into NTD transmission models, and consider the insights such frameworks may bring in terms of policy-relevant projections for the elimination era. This article is part of the theme issue 'Challenges and opportunities in the fight against neglected tropical diseases: a decade from the London Declaration on NTDs'.

Soil-transmitted helminths: A critical review of the impact of co-infections and implications for control and elimination

Researchers have raised the possibility that soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infections might modify the host's immune response against other systemic infections. STH infections can alter the immune response towards type 2 immunity that could then affect the likelihood and severity of other illnesses. However, the importance of co-infections is not completely understood, and the impact and direction of their effects vary considerably by infection. This review synthesizes evidence regarding the relevance of STH co-infections, the potential mechanisms that explain their effects, and how they might affect control and elimination efforts. According to the literature reviewed, there are both positive and negative effects associated with STH infections on other diseases such as malaria, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), tuberculosis, gestational anemia, pediatric anemia, neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) like lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis, schistosomiasis, and trachoma, as well as Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) and human papillomavirus (HPV). Studies typically describe how STHs can affect the immune system and promote increased susceptibility, survival, and persistence of the infection in the host by causing a TH2-dominated immune response. The co-infection of STH with other diseases has important implications for the development of treatment and control strategies. Eliminating parasites from a human host can be more challenging because the TH2-dominated immune response induced by STH infection can suppress the TH1 immune response required to control other infections, resulting in an increased pathogen load and more severe disease. Preventive chemotherapy and treatment are currently the most common approaches used for the control of STH infections, but these approaches alone may not be adequate to achieve elimination goals. Based on the conclusions drawn from this review, integrated approaches that combine drug administration with water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) interventions, hygiene education, community engagement, and vaccines are most likely to succeed in interrupting the transmission of STH co-infections. Gaining a better understanding of the behavior and relevance of STH co-infections in the context of elimination efforts is an important intermediate step toward reducing the associated burden of disease.

Immunotherapy and immunochemotherapy in combating visceral leishmaniasis

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL), a vector-borne disease, is caused by an obligate intramacrophage, kinetoplastid protozoan parasite of the genus Leishmania. Globally, VL is construed of diversity and complexity concerned with high fatality in tropics, subtropics, and Mediterranean regions with ~50,000-90,000 new cases annually. Factors such as the unavailability of licensed vaccine(s), insubstantial measures to control vectors, and unrestrained surge of drug-resistant parasites and HIV-VL co-infections lead to difficulty in VL treatment and control. Furthermore, VL treatment, which encompasses several problems including limited efficacy, emanation of drug-resistant parasites, exorbitant therapy, and exigency of hospitalization until the completion of treatment, further exacerbates disease severity. Therefore, there is an urgent need for the development of safe and efficacious therapies to control and eliminate this devastating disease. In such a scenario, biotherapy/immunotherapy against VL can become an alternative strategy with limited side effects and no or nominal chance of drug resistance. An extensive understanding of pathogenesis and immunological events that ensue during VL infection is vital for the development of immunotherapeutic strategies against VL. Immunotherapy alone or in combination with standard anti-leishmanial chemotherapeutic agents (immunochemotherapy) has shown better therapeutic outcomes in preclinical studies. This review extensively addresses VL treatment with an emphasis on immunotherapy or immunochemotherapeutic strategies to improve therapeutic outcomes as an alternative to conventional chemotherapy.

Quantifying Population Burden and Effectiveness of Decentralized Surveillance Strategies for Skin-Presenting Neglected Tropical Diseases, Liberia

We evaluated programmatic approaches for skin neglected tropical disease (NTD) surveillance and completed a robust estimation of the burden of skin NTDs endemic to West Africa (Buruli ulcer, leprosy, lymphatic filariasis morbidity, and yaws). In Maryland, Liberia, exhaustive case finding by community health workers of 56,285 persons across 92 clusters identified 3,241 suspected cases. A total of 236 skin NTDs (34.0 [95% CI 29.1–38.9]/10,000 persons) were confirmed by midlevel healthcare workers trained using a tailored program. Cases showed a focal and spatially heterogeneous distribution. This community health worker‒led approach showed a higher skin NTD burden than prevailing surveillance mechanisms, but also showed high (95.1%) and equitable population coverage. Specialized training and task-shifting of diagnoses to midlevel health workers led to reliable identification of skin NTDs, but reliability of individual diagnoses varied. This multifaceted evaluation of skin NTD surveillance strategies quantifies benefits and limitations of key approaches promoted by the 2030 NTD roadmap of the World Health Organization.

Expression Profile Analysis of Circular RNAs in Leishmaniasis

Leishmaniasis is a neglected tropical disease that seriously influences global public health. Among all the parasitic diseases, leishmaniasis is the third most common cause of morbidity after malaria and schistosomiasis. Circular RNAs (circRNAs) are a new type of noncoding RNAs that are involved in the regulation of biological and developmental processes. However, there is no published research on the function of circRNAs in leishmaniasis. This is the first study to explore the expression profiles of circRNAs in leishmaniasis. GO and KEGG analyses were performed to determine the potential function of the host genes of differentially expressed circRNAs. CircRNA–miRNA–mRNA (ceRNA) regulatory network analysis and protein–protein interaction (PPI) networks were analyzed by R software and the STRING database, respectively. A total of 4664 significant differentially expressed circRNAs were identified and compared to those in control groups; a total of 1931 were up-regulated and 2733 were down-regulated. The host genes of differentially expressed circRNAs were enriched in ubiquitin-mediated proteolysis, endocytosis, the MAPK signaling pathway, renal cell carcinoma, autophagy and the ErbB signaling pathway. Then, five hub genes (BRCA1, CREBBP, EP300, PIK3R1, and CRK) were identified. This study provides new evidence of the change of differentially expressed circRNAs and its potential function in leishmaniasis. These results may provide novel insights and evidence for the diagnosis and treatment of leishmaniasis.

National surveillance of hookworm disease in China: A population study

Background

Hookworm disease is endemic in China and is widespread globally. The disease burden to humans is great.

Methods

The study described the national surveillance of hookworm implemented in 31 provinces/autonomous regions/municipalities (P/A/Ms) of China in 2019. Each P/A/M determined the number and location of surveillance spots (counties). A unified sampling method was employed, and at least 1000 subjects were investigated in each surveillance spot. The modified Kato-Katz thick smear method was employed for stool examination. Fifty samples positive with hookworm eggs were cultured in each surveillance spot to discriminate species between A. duodenale and N. americanus. Twenty-five soil samples were collected from each surveillance spot and examined for hookworm larva. The 2019 surveillance results were analyzed and compared with that of 2016–2018.

Results

A total of 424766 subjects were investigated in 31 P/A/Ms of China in 2019, and the overall hookworm infection rate was 0.85% (3580/424766). The weighted infection and standard infection rates were 0.66% (4288357/648063870) and 0.67% (4343844/648063870), respectively. Sichuan province had the highest standard infection rate (4.75%) in 2019, followed by Chongqing (2.54%) and Hainan (2.44%). The standard infection rates of other P/A/Ms were all below 1%, with no hookworm detected in 15 P/A/Ms. The standard hookworm infection rate in the males and the females were 0.61% (2021216/330728900) and 0.71% (2267141/317334970), respectively, with a significant difference between different genders (χ2 = 17.23, P<0.0001). The highest standard hookworm infection rate (1.97%) was among age ≥ 60 years, followed by 45~59 years (0.77%), 15~44 years (0.37%), and 7~14 years (0.20%). The lowest standard infection rate was among the 0~6 years age group (0.12%). A significant difference was observed among different age groups (χ2 = 2 305.17, P<0.0001). The constitute ratio for N. americanus, A. duodenale, and coinfection was 78.70% (1341/1704), 2.03% (346/1704), and 1.00% (17/1704), respectively. The detection rate of hookworm larva from soil was 3.45% (71/2056).

Conclusion

The national surveillance showed that the hookworm infection rate has been decreasing annually from 2016 to 2019, and it is now below 1%. China has made significant progress in controlling hookworm. The national surveillance system is an important way to understand the endemic status and provide important information in this process and thus needs to be continually optimized.

Hookworm disease is endemic in China. The national surveillance system on important parasitic diseases including hookworm infection has been established in China. Stool samples were collected from participants, and the Kato-Katz method was applied to detect helminth eggs while samples with hookworm eggs were further cultured to differentiate the species of the parasite. Additionally, soil samples were collected and examined for hookworm larva. In 2019, the overall infection rate of hookworm in China was 0.85% (3580/424766). High prevalence was demonstrated in Western and Southern China, including Sichuan (4.75%), Chongqing (2.54%) and Hainan (2.44%). The prevalence was high in the females (0.71%) than in the males (0.61%), while it was high in older population especially those age over 60 years. N. americanus dominated the hookworm species. The prevalence of hookworm in soil was 3.45%. Overally, hookworm infection decreased to a low level in China. However, there still exist high endemic areas. Thus, intervention needs to be applied in the high endemic areas and elder population.

A refined and updated health impact assessment of the Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis (2000-2020)

Background

Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is a neglected tropical disease (NTD). In 2000 the World Health Organization (WHO) established the Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis (GPELF). A key component of this programme is mass drug administration (MDA). Between 2000 and 2020, the GPELF has delivered over 8.6 billion treatments to at-risk populations. The last impact assessment of the programme evaluated the treatments provided between 2000–2014. The goal of this analysis is to provide an updated health impact assessment of the programme, based on the numbers treated between 2000–2020.

Methods

We updated and refined a previously established model that estimates the number of clinical manifestations and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted by the treatments provided by the GPELF. The model comprises three different population cohorts that can benefit from MDA provided (those protected from acquiring infection, those with subclinical morbidity prevented from progressing and those with clinical disease alleviated). The treatment numbers were updated for all participating countries using data from the WHO. In addition, data relating to the estimated number of individuals initially at risk of LF infection were updated where possible. Finally, the DALY calculations were refined to use updated disability weights.

Results

Using the updated model and corresponding treatment data, we projected that the total benefit cohort of the GPELF (2000–2020) would consist of approximately 58.5 million individuals and the programme would avert 44.3 million chronic LF cases. Over the lifetime of the benefit cohorts, this corresponded to 244 million DALYs being averted.

Conclusion

This study indicates that substantial health benefits have resulted from the first 20 years of the GPELF. It is important to note that the GPELF would have both additional benefits not quantified by the DALY burden metric as well as benefits on other co-endemic diseases (such as soil-transmitted helminths, onchocerciasis and scabies)—making the total health benefit underestimated. As with the past impact assessments, these results further justify the value and importance of continued investment in the GPELF.

Graphical Abstract

OUP accepted manuscript

Partnerships have been key to significant progress in combating neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). Collaboration between a range of partners, each bringing different skills and resources, helps reach more people in need with greater efficiency. Some partners have contributed in-kind donations, including drugs and volunteer time. When making resource allocation decisions donors need to consider the significant leverage their investment in NTD programmes can have. This commentary estimates the value of the leverage that the Ascend programme achieved. It is clear that funding from UK aid to Ascend delivered (much) more than what they paid for.

Are current preventive chemotherapy strategies for controlling and eliminating neglected tropical diseases cost-effective?

Neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) remain a significant cause of morbidity and mortality in many low-income and middle-income countries. Several NTDs, namely lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis, schistosomiasis, soil-transmitted helminthiases (STH) and trachoma, are predominantly controlled by preventive chemotherapy (or mass drug administration), following recommendations set by the WHO. Over one billion people are now treated for NTDs with this strategy per year. However, further investment and increased domestic healthcare spending are urgently needed to continue these programmes. Consequently, it is vital that the cost-effectiveness of preventive chemotherapy is understood. We analyse the current estimates on the cost per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) of the preventive chemotherapy strategies predominantly used for these diseases and identify key evidence gaps that require further research. Overall, the reported estimates show that preventive chemotherapy is generally cost-effective, supporting WHO recommendations. More specifically, the cost per DALY averted estimates relating to community-wide preventive chemotherapy for lymphatic filariasis and onchocerciasis were particularly favourable when compared with other public health interventions. Cost per DALY averted estimates of school-based preventive chemotherapy for schistosomiasis and STH were also generally favourable but more variable. Notably, the broader socioeconomic benefits are likely not being fully captured by the DALYs averted metric. No estimates of cost per DALY averted relating to community-wide mass antibiotic treatment for trachoma were found, highlighting the need for further research. These findings are important for informing global health policy and support the need for continuing NTD control and elimination efforts.

National surveillance on soil-transmitted helminthiasis in the People's Republic of China

Soil-transmitted helminths (STHs) are widely distributed and remain a public health problem in the People's Republic of China. Altogether, 301 counties across 30 regions were investigated during the national surveillance on STHs carried out in 2016 based on the modified Kato-Katz thick smear method to examine faecal samples. A total of 305 081 people were investigated with 7 366 (2.4%) found to be infected. The infection rates were the following: hookworm 1.4%, Ascaris lumbricoides 0.8% and Trichuris trichiura 0.5%. Having established that the STHs infection rate is relatively low, it is time to move towards elimination. The national surveillance system is essential for providing basic data and formulation of useful control strategies towards achieving this goal.

Guide posts for investment in primary health care and projected resource needs in 67 low-income and middle-income countries: a modelling study

Background

Primary health care (PHC) is a driving force for advancing towards universal health coverage (UHC). PHC-oriented health systems bring enormous benefits but require substantial financial investments. Here, we aim to present measures for PHC investments and project the associated resource needs.

Methods

This modelling study analysed data from 67 low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). Recognising the variation in PHC services among countries, we propose three measures for PHC, with different scope for included interventions and system strengthening. Measure 1 is centred on public health interventions and outpatient care; measure 2 adds general inpatient care; and measure 3 further adds cross-sectoral activities. Cost components included in each measure were based on the Declaration of Astana, informed by work delineating PHC within health accounts, and finalised through an expert and country validation meeting. We extracted the subset of PHC costs for each measure from WHO's Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) price tag for the 67 LMICs, and projected the associated health impact. Estimates of financial resource need, health workforce, and outpatient visits are presented as PHC investment guide posts for LMICs.

Findings

An estimated additional US$200–328 billion per year is required for the various measures of PHC from 2020 to 2030. For measure 1, an additional $32 is needed per capita across the countries. Needs are greatest in low-income countries where PHC spending per capita needs to increase from $25 to $65. Overall health workforces would need to increase from 5·6 workers per 1000 population to 6·7 per 1000 population, delivering an average of 5·9 outpatient visits per capita per year. Increasing coverage of PHC interventions would avert an estimated 60·1 million deaths and increase average life expectancy by 3·7 years. By 2030, these incremental PHC costs would be about 3·3% of projected gross domestic product (GDP; median 1·7%, range 0·1–20·2). In a business-as-usual financing scenario, 25 of 67 countries will have funding gaps in 2030. If funding for PHC was increased by 1–2% of GDP across all countries, as few as 16 countries would see a funding gap by 2030.

Interpretation

The resources required to strengthen PHC vary across countries, depending on demographic trends, disease burden, and health system capacity. The proposed PHC investment guide posts advance discussions around the budgetary implications of strengthening PHC, including relevant system investment needs and achievable health outcomes. Preliminary findings suggest that low-income and lower-middle-income countries would need to at least double current spending on PHC to strengthen their systems and universally provide essential PHC services. Investing in PHC will bring substantial health benefits and build human capital. At country level, PHC interventions need to be explicitly identified, and plans should be made for how to most appropriately reorient the health system towards PHC as a key lever towards achieving UHC and the health-related SDGs.

Funding

The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Economic evaluations of onchocerciasis interventions: a systematic review and research needs

OBJECTIVE

To provide a systematic review of economic evaluations that has been conducted for onchocerciasis interventions, to summarise current key knowledge and to identify research gaps.

METHOD

A systematic review of the literature was conducted on the 8th of August 2018 using the PubMed (MEDLINE) and ISI Web of Science electronic databases. No date or language stipulations were applied to the searches.

RESULTS

We identified 14 primary studies reporting the results of economic evaluations of onchocerciasis interventions, seven of which were cost-effectiveness analyses. The studies identified used a variety of different approaches to estimate the costs of the investigated interventions/programmes. Originally, the studies only quantified the benefits associated with preventing blindness. Gradually, methods improved and also captured onchocerciasis-associated skin disease. Studies found that eliminating onchocerciasis would generate billions in economic benefits. The majority of the cost-effectiveness analyses evaluated annual mass drug administration (MDA). The estimated cost per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted of annual MDA varies between US$3 and US$30 (cost year variable).

CONCLUSIONS

The cost benefit and cost effectiveness of onchocerciasis interventions have consistently been found to be very favourable. This finding provides strong evidential support for the ongoing efforts to eliminate onchocerciasis from endemic areas. Although these results are very promising, there are several important research gaps that need to be addressed as we move towards the 2020 milestones and beyond.

Cutaneous leishmaniasis and co-morbid major depressive disorder: A systematic review with burden estimates

Background

Major depressive disorder (MDD) associated with chronic neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) has been identified as a significant and overlooked contributor to overall disease burden. Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is one of the most prevalent and stigmatising NTDs, with an incidence of around 1 million new cases of active CL infection annually. However, the characteristic residual scarring (inactive CL) following almost all cases of active CL has only recently been recognised as part of the CL disease spectrum due to its lasting psychosocial impact.

Methods and findings

We performed a multi-language systematic review of the psychosocial impact of active and inactive CL. We estimated inactive CL (iCL) prevalence for the first time using reported WHO active CL (aCL) incidence data that were adjusted for life expectancy and underreporting. We then quantified the disability (YLD) burden of co-morbid MDD in CL using MDD disability weights at three severity levels. Overall, we identified 29 studies of CL psychological impact from 5 WHO regions, representing 11 of the 50 highest burden countries for CL. We conservatively calculated the disability burden of co-morbid MDD in CL to be 1.9 million YLDs, which equalled the overall (DALY) disease burden (assuming no excess mortality in depressed CL patients). Thus, upon inclusion of co-morbid MDD alone in both active and inactive CL, the DALY burden was seven times higher than the latest 2016 Global Burden of Disease study estimates, which notably omitted both psychological impact and inactive CL.

Conclusions

Failure to include co-morbid MDD and the lasting sequelae of chronic NTDs, as exemplified by CL, leads to large underestimates of overall disease burden.

Cutaneous leishmaniasis is a highly prevalent vector-borne disease affecting large parts of Latin America and the Middle East, as well as parts of Northern Africa. There are several types of Cutaneous leishmaniasis, almost all of which have an active phase characterized by a disfiguring lesion (typically on exposed parts of the body), which then becomes a permanent scar (the inactive phase). We recently published an article highlighting the impact of the inactive scarring phase of CL on affected individuals, which is associated with high levels of stigma. Nevertheless, this aspect of the disease is not considered in its own right when calculating the overall disease burden by the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Studies. In this article we estimate the prevalence of depression (major depressive disorder) in cutaneous leishmaniasis, in both the active and inactive forms. We then show the contribution of inactive CL to the overall disease burden estimates when included, which is due to the large psychological impact it has on those affected by it. We also highlight the importance of further similar efforts for other NTDs which have a chronic course, and which are also not sufficiently included in disease burden calculations at present.

Understanding the economic impact of leishmaniasis on households in endemic countries: a systematic review

INTRODUCTION

Leishmaniasis is a poverty-related disease that causes a significant socioeconomic burden to affected households. Visceral leishmaniasis is fatal if untreated, yet illness costs may lead to delays in accessing care. Skin manifestations of leishmaniasis cause a psychological burden and even longer treatment trajectories. The objective of this review is to evaluate illness costs associated with leishmaniasis across different settings (Asia, Africa, and Latin America) and the consequences to households. Areas covered: Through a systematic review of cost-of-illness studies, we documented the distribution of costs, the health-seeking behavior, and the consequences of leishmaniasis. We discuss the value of cost-of-illness studies for leishmaniasis. Expert commentary: Despite the free provision of diagnostics and treatment in the public health care sector, out-of-pocket payments remain substantial. There has been progress in addressing the economic burden of leishmaniasis, particularly through the elimination initiative in the Indian subcontinent. Though the illness cost is decreasing due to shorter treatment regimens and better access to care, the situation remains challenging in Africa. Improvement of control tools is critical. There is a need to update cost estimates to inform policy-making and ensure sustainable solutions to reduce financial barriers to leishmaniasis care, especially in pursuing universal health coverage.

Visceral leishmaniasis: Spatiotemporal heterogeneity and drivers underlying the hotspots in Muzaffarpur, Bihar, India

BACKGROUND

Despite the overall decrease in visceral leishmaniasis (VL) incidence on the Indian subcontinent, there remain spatiotemporal clusters or 'hotspots' of new cases. The characteristics of these hotspots, underlying transmission dynamics, and their importance for shaping control strategies are not yet fully understood and are investigated in this study for a VL endemic area of ~100,000 inhabitants in Bihar, India between 2007-2015.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

VL incidence (cases/10,000/year) dropped from 12.3 in 2007 to 0.9 in 2015, which is just below the World Health Organizations' threshold for elimination as a public health problem. Clustering of VL was assessed between subvillages (hamlets), using multiple geospatial and (spatio)temporal autocorrelation and hotspot analyses. One to three hotspots were identified each year, often persisting for 1-5 successive years with a modal radius of ~500m. The relative risk of having VL was 5-86 times higher for inhabitants of hotspots, compared to those living outside hotspots. Hotspots harbour significantly more households from the two lowest asset quintiles (as proxy for socio-economic status). Overall, children and young adelescents (5-14 years) have the highest risk for VL, but within hotspots and at the start of outbreaks, older age groups (35+ years) show a comparable high risk.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

This study demonstrates significant spatiotemporal heterogeneity in VL incidence at subdistrict level. The association between poverty and hotspots confirms that VL is a disease of 'the poorest of the poor' and age patterns suggest a potential role of waning immunity as underlying driver of hotspots. The recommended insecticide spraying radius of 500m around detected VL cases corresponds to the modal hotspot radius found in this study. Additional data on immunity and asymptomatic infection, and the development of spatiotemporally explicit transmission models that simulate hotspot dynamics and predict the impact of interventions at the smaller geographical scale will be crucial tools in sustaining elimination.

Onchodermatitis: Where Are We Now?

Onchocerciasis causes debilitating pruritus and rashes as well as visual impairment and blindness. Prior to control measures, eye disease was particularly prominent in savanna areas of sub-Saharan Africa whilst skin disease was more common across rainforest regions of tropical Africa. Mass drug distribution with ivermectin is changing the global scene of onchocerciasis. There has been successful progressive elimination in Central and Southern American countries and the World Health Organization has set a target for elimination in Africa of 2025. This literature review was conducted to examine progress regarding onchocercal skin disease. PubMed searches were performed using keywords 'onchocerciasis', 'onchodermatitis' and 'onchocercal skin disease' over the past eight years. Articles in English, or with an English abstract, were assessed for relevance, including any pertinent references within the articles. Recent progress in awareness of, understanding and treatment of onchocercal skin disease is reviewed with particular emphasis on publications within the past five years. The global burden of onchodermatitis is progressively reducing and is no longer seen in children in many formerly endemic foci.

Equity and efficiency in the scaled-up implementation of integrated neglected tropical disease control: the health economics protocol of the COUNTDOWN multicountry observational study in Ghana, Cameroon and Liberia

INTRODUCTION

Worldwide, millions of individuals are affected by neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). They are frequently the poorest and most marginalised members of society. Their living conditions, among other things, make them susceptible to such diseases. Historically, several large-scale treatment programmes providing mass drug administrations (MDAs) were carried out per single disease but over the last decade there has been an increasing trend towards co-implementation of MDA activities given the resources used for such programmes are often the same. The COUNTDOWN multicountry studies focus on scaled-up implementation of integrated control strategies against four diseases: lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis, schistosomiasis and soil-transmitted helminthiasis. The objective of the COUNTDOWN economic study is to assess the multicountry implementation of control interventions in terms of equity, impact and efficiency.

METHODS

The health economic study uses different analytical methods to assess the relationship between NTDs and poverty and the cost-effectiveness of different large-scale intervention options. Regression analysis will be used to study the determinants of NTD occurrence, the impact of NTDs on poverty, factors that hinder access to MDAs and the effect of NTDs on quality-of-life of those affected, including disability. Cost-effectiveness analyses of various integration methods will be performed using health economic modelling to estimate the cost and programme impact of different integration options. Here, cost-effectiveness ratios will be calculated, including multivariate sensitivity analyses, using Bayesian analysis.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethics approval has been received both at the Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine and in all participating countries. Results of the various substudies will be presented for publication in peer-reviewed journals.

STUDY DATES

1 July 2016 to 30 June-October 2019.

The changing global landscape of health and disease: addressing challenges and opportunities for sustaining progress towards control and elimination of neglected tropical diseases (NTDs)

The drive to control neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) has had many successes but to reach defined targets new approaches are required. Over the last decade, NTD control programmes have benefitted from increased resources, and from effective partnerships and long-term pharmaceutical donations. Although the NTD agenda is broader than those diseases of parasitic aetiology there has been a massive up-scaling of the delivery of medicines to some billion people annually. Recipients are often the poorest, with the aspiration that NTD programmes are key to universal health coverage as reflected within the 2030 United Nations sustainable development goals (SDGs). To reach elimination targets, the community will need to adapt global events and changing policy environments to ensure programmes are responsive and can sustain progress towards NTD targets. Innovative thinking embedded within regional and national health systems is needed. Policy makers, managers and frontline health workers are the mediators between challenge and change at global and local levels. This paper attempts to address the challenges to end the chronic pandemic of NTDs and achieve the SDG targets. It concludes with a conceptual framework that illustrates the interactions between these key challenges and opportunities and emphasizes the health system as a critical mediator.

Socioeconomic benefit to individuals of achieving 2020 targets for four neglected tropical diseases controlled/eliminated by innovative and intensified disease management: Human African trypanosomiasis, leprosy, visceral leishmaniasis, Chagas disease

BACKGROUND

The control or elimination of neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) has targets defined by the WHO for 2020, reinforced by the 2012 London Declaration. We estimated the economic impact to individuals of meeting these targets for human African trypanosomiasis, leprosy, visceral leishmaniasis and Chagas disease, NTDs controlled or eliminated by innovative and intensified disease management (IDM).

METHODS

A systematic literature review identified information on productivity loss and out-of-pocket payments (OPPs) related to these NTDs, which were combined with projections of the number of people suffering from each NTD, country and year for 2011-2020 and 2021-2030. The ideal scenario in which the WHO's 2020 targets are met was compared with a counterfactual scenario that assumed the situation of 1990 stayed unaltered. Economic benefit equaled the difference between the two scenarios. Values are reported in 2005 US$, purchasing power parity-adjusted, discounted at 3% per annum from 2010. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were used to quantify the degree of uncertainty around the base-case impact estimate.

RESULTS

The total global productivity gained for the four IDM-NTDs was I$ 23.1 (I$ 15.9 -I$ 34.0) billion in 2011-2020 and I$ 35.9 (I$ 25.0 -I$ 51.9) billion in 2021-2030 (2.5th and 97.5th percentiles in brackets), corresponding to US$ 10.7 billion (US$ 7.4 -US$ 15.7) and US$ 16.6 billion (US$ 11.6 -US$ 24.0). Reduction in OPPs was I$ 14 billion (US$ 6.7 billion) and I$ 18 billion (US$ 10.4 billion) for the same periods.

CONCLUSIONS

We faced important limitations to our work, such as finding no OPPs for leprosy. We had to combine limited data from various sources, heterogeneous background, and of variable quality. Nevertheless, based on conservative assumptions and subsequent uncertainty analyses, we estimate that the benefits of achieving the targets are considerable. Under plausible scenarios, the economic benefits far exceed the necessary investments by endemic country governments and their development partners. Given the higher frequency of NTDs among the poorest households, these investments represent good value for money in the effort to improve well-being, distribute the world's prosperity more equitably and reduce inequity.

Soil-transmitted helminth infections

More than a quarter of the world's population is at risk of infection with the soil-transmitted helminths Ascaris lumbricoides, hookworm (Ancylostoma duodenale and Necator americanus), Trichuris trichiura, and Strongyloides stercoralis. Infected children and adults present with a range of medical and surgical conditions, and clinicians should consider the possibility of infection in individuals living in, or returning from, endemic regions. Although safe and effective drugs are donated free to endemic countries, only half of at-risk children received treatment in 2016. This Seminar describes the epidemiology, lifecycles, pathophysiology, clinical diagnosis, management, and public health control of soil-transmitted helminths. Previous work has questioned the effect of population-level deworming; however, it remains beyond doubt that treatment reduces the severe consequences of soil-transmitted helminthiasis. We highlight the need for refined diagnostic tools and effective control options to scale up public health interventions and improve clinical detection and management of these infections.

Prospects for elimination of soil-transmitted helminths

Purpose of review

Soil-transmitted helminths (STH) are endemic in 120 countries and are associated with substantial morbidity and loss of economic productivity. Although current WHO guidelines focus on morbidity control through mass drug administration (MDA), there is global interest in whether a strategy targeting disease elimination might be feasible in some settings. This review summarizes the prospects for switching from control to an elimination strategy.

Recent findings

STH control efforts have reduced the intensity of infections in targeted populations with associated reductions in morbidity. However, adults are not frequently targeted and remain important reservoirs for reinfection of treated children. Recent modeling suggests that transmission interruption may be possible through expanded community-wide delivery of MDA, the feasibility of which has been demonstrated by other programs. However, these models suggest that high levels of coverage and compliance must be achieved. Potential challenges include the risk of prematurely dismantling STH programs and the potential increased risk of antihelminthic resistance.

Summary

Elimination of STH may offer an opportunity to eliminate substantial STH-related morbidity while reducing resource needs of neglected tropical disease programs. Evidence from large community trials is needed to determine the feasibility of interrupting the transmission of STH in some geographic settings.

Testing for soil-transmitted helminth transmission elimination: Analysing the impact of the sensitivity of different diagnostic tools

In recent years, an increased focus has been placed upon the possibility of the elimination of soil-transmitted helminth (STH) transmission using various interventions including mass drug administration. The primary diagnostic tool recommended by the WHO is the detection of STH eggs in stool using the Kato-Katz (KK) method. However, detecting infected individuals using this method becomes increasingly difficult as the intensity of infection decreases. Newer techniques, such as qPCR, have been shown to have greater sensitivity than KK, especially at low prevalence. However, the impact of using qPCR on elimination thresholds is yet to be investigated. In this paper, we aim to quantify how the sensitivity of these two diagnostic tools affects the optimal prevalence threshold at which to declare the interruption of transmission with a defined level of confidence. A stochastic, individual-based STH transmission model was used in this study to simulate the transmission dynamics of Ascaris and hookworm. Data from a Kenyan deworming study were used to parameterize the diagnostic model which was based on egg detection probabilities. The positive and negative predictive values (PPV and NPV) were calculated to assess the quality of any given threshold, with the optimal threshold value taken to be that at which both were maximised. The threshold prevalence of infection values for declaring elimination of Ascaris transmission were 6% and 12% for KK and qPCR respectively. For hookworm, these threshold values are lower at 0.5% and 2% respectively. Diagnostic tests with greater sensitivity are becoming increasingly important as we approach the elimination of STH transmission in some regions of the world. For declaring the elimination of transmission, using qPCR to diagnose STH infection results in the definition of a higher prevalence, than when KK is used.

Financing transformative health systems towards achievement of the health Sustainable Development Goals: a model for projected resource needs in 67 low-income and middle-income countries

BACKGROUND

The ambitious development agenda of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) requires substantial investments across several sectors, including for SDG 3 (healthy lives and wellbeing). No estimates of the additional resources needed to strengthen comprehensive health service delivery towards the attainment of SDG 3 and universal health coverage in low-income and middle-income countries have been published.

METHODS

We developed a framework for health systems strengthening, within which population-level and individual-level health service coverage is gradually scaled up over time. We developed projections for 67 low-income and middle-income countries from 2016 to 2030, representing 95% of the total population in low-income and middle-income countries. We considered four service delivery platforms, and modelled two scenarios with differing levels of ambition: a progress scenario, in which countries' advancement towards global targets is constrained by their health system's assumed absorptive capacity, and an ambitious scenario, in which most countries attain the global targets. We estimated the associated costs and health effects, including reduced prevalence of illness, lives saved, and increases in life expectancy. We projected available funding by country and year, taking into account economic growth and anticipated allocation towards the health sector, to allow for an analysis of affordability and financial sustainability.

FINDINGS

We estimate that an additional $274 billion spending on health is needed per year by 2030 to make progress towards the SDG 3 targets (progress scenario), whereas US$371 billion would be needed to reach health system targets in the ambitious scenario-the equivalent of an additional $41 (range 15-102) or $58 (22-167) per person, respectively, by the final years of scale-up. In the ambitious scenario, total health-care spending would increase to a population-weighted mean of $271 per person (range 74-984) across country contexts, and the share of gross domestic product spent on health would increase to a mean of 7·5% (2·1-20·5). Around 75% of costs are for health systems, with health workforce and infrastructure (including medical equipment) as the main cost drivers. Despite projected increases in health spending, a financing gap of $20-54 billion per year is projected. Should funds be made available and used as planned, the ambitious scenario would save 97 million lives and significantly increase life expectancy by 3·1-8·4 years, depending on the country profile.

INTERPRETATION

All countries will need to strengthen investments in health systems to expand service provision in order to reach SDG 3 health targets, but even the poorest can reach some level of universality. In view of anticipated resource constraints, each country will need to prioritise equitably, plan strategically, and cost realistically its own path towards SDG 3 and universal health coverage.

FUNDING

WHO.

Lymphatic filariasis patient identification in a large urban area of Tanzania: An application of a community-led mHealth system

BACKGROUND

Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is best known for the disabling and disfiguring clinical conditions that infected patients can develop; providing care for these individuals is a major goal of the Global Programme to Eliminate LF. Methods of locating these patients, knowing their true number and thus providing care for them, remains a challenge for national medical systems, particularly when the endemic zone is a large urban area.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPLE FINDINGS

A health community-led door-to-door survey approach using the SMS reporting tool MeasureSMS-Morbidity was used to rapidly collate and monitor data on LF patients in real-time (location, sex, age, clinical condition) in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. Each stage of the phased study carried out in the three urban districts of city consisted of a training period, a patient identification and reporting period, and a data verification period, with refinements to the system being made after each phase. A total of 6889 patients were reported (133.6 per 100,000 population), of which 4169 were reported to have hydrocoele (80.9 per 100,000), 2251 lymphoedema-elephantiasis (LE) (43.7 per 100,000) and 469 with both conditions (9.1 per 100,000). Kinondoni had the highest number of reported patients in absolute terms (2846, 138.9 per 100,000), followed by Temeke (2550, 157.3 per 100,000) and Ilala (1493, 100.5 per 100,000). The number of hydrocoele patients was almost twice that of LE in all three districts. Severe LE patients accounted for approximately a quarter (26.9%) of those reported, with the number of acute attacks increasing with reported LE severity (1.34 in mild cases, 1.78 in moderate cases, 2.52 in severe). Verification checks supported these findings.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

This system of identifying, recording and mapping patients affected by LF greatly assists in planning, locating and prioritising, as well as initiating, appropriate morbidity management and disability prevention (MMDP) activities. The approach is a feasible framework that could be used in other large urban environments in the LF endemic areas.

The cross-cutting contribution of the end of neglected tropical diseases to the sustainable development goals

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) call for an integrated response, the kind that has defined Neglected Tropical Diseases (NTDs) efforts in the past decade.NTD interventions have the greatest relevance for SDG3, the health goal, where the focus on equity, and its commitment to reaching people in need of health services, wherever they may live and whatever their circumstances, is fundamentally aligned with the target of Universal Health Coverage. NTD interventions, however, also affect and are affected by many of the other development areas covered under the 2030 Agenda. Strategies such as mass drug administration or the programmatic integration of NTD and WASH activities (SDG6) are driven by effective global partnerships (SDG17). Intervention against the NTDs can also have an impact on poverty (SDG1) and hunger (SDG2), can improve education (SDG4), work and economic growth (SDG8), thereby reducing inequalities (SDG10). The community-led distribution of donated medicines to more than 1 billion people reinforces women's empowerment (SDG5), logistics infrastructure (SDG9) and non-discrimination against disability (SDG16). Interventions to curb mosquito-borne NTDs contribute to the goals of urban sustainability (SDG11) and resilience to climate change (SDG13), while the safe use of insecticides supports the goal of sustainable ecosystems (SDG15). Although indirectly, interventions to control water- and animal-related NTDs can facilitate the goals of small-scale fishing (SDG14) and sustainable hydroelectricity and biofuels (SDG7).NTDs proliferate in less developed areas in countries across the income spectrum, areas where large numbers of people have little or no access to adequate health care, clean water, sanitation, housing, education, transport and information. This scoping review assesses how in this context, ending the epidemic of the NTDs can impact and improve our prospects of attaining the SDGs.

Elimination of visceral leishmaniasis in the Indian subcontinent: a comparison of predictions from three transmission models

We present three transmission models of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in the Indian subcontinent (ISC) with structural differences regarding the disease stage that provides the main contribution to transmission, including models with a prominent role of asymptomatic infection, and fit them to recent case data from 8 endemic districts in Bihar, India. Following a geographical cross-validation of the models, we compare their predictions for achieving the WHO VL elimination targets with ongoing treatment and vector control strategies. All the transmission models suggest that the WHO elimination target (<1 new VL case per 10,000 capita per year at sub-district level) is likely to be met in Bihar, India, before or close to 2020 in sub-districts with a pre-control incidence of 10 VL cases per 10,000 people per year or less, when current intervention levels (60% coverage of indoor residual spraying (IRS) of insecticide and a delay of 40days from onset of symptoms to treatment (OT)) are maintained, given the accuracy and generalizability of the existing data regarding incidence and IRS coverage. In settings with a pre-control endemicity level of 5/10,000, increasing the effective IRS coverage from 60 to 80% is predicted to lead to elimination of VL 1-3 years earlier (depending on the particular model), and decreasing OT from 40 to 20days to bring elimination forward by approximately 1year. However, in all instances the models suggest that L. donovani transmission will continue after 2020 and thus that surveillance and control measures need to remain in place until the longer-term aim of breaking transmission is achieved.

Neglected tropical diseases: progress towards addressing the chronic pandemic

The concept of neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) emerged more than a decade ago and has been recognised as a valid way to categorise diseases that affect the poorest individuals. Substantial progress in control and elimination has been achieved and policy momentum has been generated through continued bilateral, philanthropic, and non-governmental development organisation (NGDO) support, and donations of drugs from pharmaceutical companies. WHO has defined a Roadmap to reach 2020 targets, which was endorsed by member states in a World Health Assembly Resolution in 2013. NTDs have been included within the Sustainable Development Goal targets and are a crucial component of universal health coverage, conceptualised as "leaving no one behind". WHO reported that more than 1 billion people in 88 countries have benefited from preventive chemotherapy in 2014. The research agenda has defined the need for affordable products (diagnostics, drugs and insecticides). However challenges such as insecurity and weak health systems continue to prevail in the poorest countries, inhibiting progress in scaling up and also in achieving Roadmap goals.

The Socioeconomic Benefit to Individuals of Achieving the 2020 Targets for Five Preventive Chemotherapy Neglected Tropical Diseases

BACKGROUND

Lymphatic filariasis (LF), onchocerciasis, schistosomiasis, soil-transmitted helminths (STH) and trachoma represent the five most prevalent neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). They can be controlled or eliminated by means of safe and cost-effective interventions delivered through programs of Mass Drug Administration (MDA)-also named Preventive Chemotherapy (PCT). The WHO defined targets for NTD control/elimination by 2020, reinforced by the 2012 London Declaration, which, if achieved, would result in dramatic health gains. We estimated the potential economic benefit of achieving these targets, focusing specifically on productivity and out-of-pocket payments.

METHODS

Productivity loss was calculated by combining disease frequency with productivity loss from the disease, from the perspective of affected individuals. Productivity gain was calculated by deducting the total loss expected in the target achievement scenario from the loss in a counterfactual scenario where it was assumed the pre-intervention situation in 1990 regarding NTDs would continue unabated until 2030. Economic benefits from out-of-pocket payments (OPPs) were calculated similarly. Benefits are reported in 2005 US$ (purchasing power parity-adjusted and discounted at 3% per annum from 2010). Sensitivity analyses were used to assess the influence of changes in input parameters.

RESULTS

The economic benefit from productivity gain was estimated to be I$251 billion in 2011-2020 and I$313 billion in 2021-2030, considerably greater than the total OPPs averted of I$0.72 billion and I$0.96 billion in the same periods. The net benefit is expected to be US$ 27.4 and US$ 42.8 for every dollar invested during the same periods. Impact varies between NTDs and regions, since it is determined by disease prevalence and extent of disease-related productivity loss.

CONCLUSION

Achieving the PCT-NTD targets for 2020 will yield significant economic benefits to affected individuals. Despite large uncertainty, these benefits far exceed the investment required by governments and their development partners within all reasonable scenarios. Given the concentration of the NTDs among the poorest households, these investments represent good value for money in efforts to share the world's prosperity and reduce inequity.

The health and economic benefits of the global programme to eliminate lymphatic filariasis (2000-2014)

BACKGROUND

Lymphatic filariasis (LF), also known as elephantiasis, is a neglected tropical disease (NTD) targeted for elimination through a Global Programme to Eliminate LF (GPELF). Between 2000 and 2014, the GPELF has delivered 5.6 billion treatments to over 763 million people. Updating the estimated health and economic benefits of this significant achievement is important in justifying the resources and investment needed for eliminating LF.

METHOD

We combined previously established models to estimate the number of clinical manifestations and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted from three benefit cohorts (those protected from acquiring infection, those with subclinical morbidity prevented from progressing and those with clinical disease alleviated). The economic savings associated with this disease prevention was then analysed in the context of prevented medical expenses incurred by LF clinical patients, potential income loss through lost-labour, and prevented costs to the health system to care for affected individuals. The indirect cost estimates were calculated using the human capital approach. A combination of four wage sources was used to estimate the fair market value of time for an agricultural worker with LF infection (to ensure a conservative estimate, the lowest wage value was used).

RESULTS

We projected that due to the first 15 years of the GPELF 36 million clinical cases and 175 (116-250) million DALYs will potentially be averted. It was estimated that due to this notable health impact, US$100.5 billion will potentially be saved over the lifetimes of the benefit cohorts. This total amount results from summing the medical expenses incurred by LF patients (US$3 billion), potential income loss (US$94 billion), and costs to the health system (US$3.5 billion) that were projected to be prevented. The results were subjected to sensitivity analysis and were most sensitive to the assumed percentage of work hours lost for those suffering from chronic disease (changing the total economic benefit between US$69.30-150.7 billion).

CONCLUSIONS

Despite the limitations of any such analysis, this study identifies substantial health and economic benefits that have resulted from the first 15 years of the GPELF, and it highlights the value and importance of continued investment in the GPELF.

Socioeconomic Inequalities in Neglected Tropical Diseases: A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND

Neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) are generally assumed to be concentrated in poor populations, but evidence on this remains scattered. We describe within-country socioeconomic inequalities in nine NTDs listed in the London Declaration for intensified control and/or elimination: lymphatic filariasis (LF), onchocerciasis, schistosomiasis, soil-transmitted helminthiasis (STH), trachoma, Chagas' disease, human African trypanosomiasis (HAT), leprosy, and visceral leishmaniasis (VL).

METHODOLOGY

We conducted a systematic literature review, including publications between 2004-2013 found in Embase, Medline (OvidSP), Cochrane Central, Web of Science, Popline, Lilacs, and Scielo. We included publications in international peer-reviewed journals on studies concerning the top 20 countries in terms of the burden of the NTD under study.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

We identified 5,516 publications, of which 93 met the inclusion criteria. Of these, 59 papers reported substantial and statistically significant socioeconomic inequalities in NTD distribution, with higher odds of infection or disease among poor and less-educated people compared with better-off groups. The findings were mixed in 23 studies, and 11 studies showed no substantial or statistically significant inequality. Most information was available for STH, VL, schistosomiasis, and, to a lesser extent, for trachoma. For the other NTDs, evidence on their socioeconomic distribution was scarce. The magnitude of inequality varied, but often, the odds of infection or disease were twice as high among socioeconomically disadvantaged groups compared with better-off strata. Inequalities often took the form of a gradient, with higher odds of infection or disease each step down the socioeconomic hierarchy. Notwithstanding these inequalities, the prevalence of some NTDs was sometimes also high among better-off groups in some highly endemic areas.

CONCLUSIONS

While recent evidence on socioeconomic inequalities is scarce for most individual NTDs, for some, there is considerable evidence of substantially higher odds of infection or disease among socioeconomically disadvantaged groups. NTD control activities as proposed in the London Declaration, when set up in a way that they reach the most in need, will benefit the poorest populations in poor countries.

Between-Country Inequalities in the Neglected Tropical Disease Burden in 1990 and 2010, with Projections for 2020

BACKGROUND

The World Health Organization (WHO) has set ambitious time-bound targets for the control and elimination of neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). Investing in NTDs is not only seen as good value for money, but is also advocated as a pro-poor policy since it would improve population health in the poorest populations. We studied the extent to which the disease burden from nine NTDs (lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis, schistosomiasis, soil-transmitted helminths, trachoma, Chagas disease, human African trypanosomiasis, leprosy, visceral leishmaniasis) was concentrated in the poorest countries in 1990 and 2010, and how this would change by 2020 in case the WHO targets are met.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Our analysis was based on 1990 and 2010 data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2010 study and on projections of the 2020 burden. Low and lower-middle income countries together accounted for 69% and 81% of the global burden in 1990 and 2010 respectively. Only the soil-transmitted helminths and Chagas disease caused a considerable burden in upper-middle income countries. The global burden from these NTDs declined by 27% between 1990 and 2010, but reduction largely came to the benefit of upper-middle income countries. Achieving the WHO targets would lead to a further 55% reduction in the global burden between 2010 and 2020 in each country income group, and 81% of the global reduction would occur in low and lower-middle income countries.

CONCLUSIONS

The GBD 2010 data show the burden of the nine selected NTDs in DALYs is strongly concentrated in low and lower-middle income countries, which implies that the beneficial impact of NTD control eventually also largely comes to the benefit of these same countries. While the nine NTDs became increasingly concentrated in developing countries in the 1990-2010 period, this trend would be rectified if the WHO targets were met, supporting the pro-poor designation.

Feasibility of eliminating visceral leishmaniasis from the Indian subcontinent: explorations with a set of deterministic age-structured transmission models

Background

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a neglected tropical disease transmitted by sandflies. On the Indian subcontinent (ISC), VL is targeted for elimination as a public health problem by 2017. In the context of VL, the elimination target is defined as an annual VL incidence of <1 per 10,000 capita at (sub-)district level. Interventions focus on vector control, surveillance and on diagnosing and treating VL cases. Many endemic areas have not yet achieved optimal control due to logistical, biological as well as technical challenges. We used mathematical modelling to quantify VL transmission dynamics and predict the feasibility of achieving the VL elimination target with current control strategies under varying assumptions about the reservoir of infection in humans.

Methods

We developed three deterministic age-structured transmission models with different main reservoirs of infection in humans: asymptomatic infections (model 1), reactivation of infection after initial infection (model 2), and post kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis (PKDL; model 3). For each model, we defined four sub-variants based on different assumptions about the duration of immunity and age-patterns in exposure to sandflies. All 12 model sub-variants were fitted to data from the KalaNet study in Bihar (India) and Nepal, and the best sub-variant was selected per model. Predictions were made for optimal and sub-optimal indoor residual spraying (IRS) effectiveness for three different levels of VL endemicity.

Results

Structurally different models explained the KalaNet data equally well. However, the predicted impact of IRS varied substantially between models, such that a conclusion about reaching the VL elimination targets for the ISC heavily depends on assumptions about the main reservoir of infection in humans: asymptomatic cases, recovered (immune) individuals that reactivate, or PKDL cases.

Conclusions

Available data on the impact of IRS so far suggest one model is probably closest to reality (model 1). According to this model, elimination of VL (incidence of <1 per 10,000) by 2017 is only feasible in low and medium endemic settings with optimal IRS. In highly endemic settings and settings with sub-optimal IRS, additional interventions will be required.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13071-016-1292-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.