Socioeconomic and environmental determinants of dengue transmission in an urban setting: An ecological study in Nouméa, New Caledonia

Spatio-temporal dengue risk modelling in the south of Thailand: a Bayesian approach to dengue vulnerability

Background

More than half of the global population is predicted to be living in areas susceptible to dengue transmission with the vast majority in Asia. Dengue fever is of public health concern, particularly in the southern region of Thailand due to favourable environmental factors for its spread. The risk of dengue infection at the population level varies in time and space among sub-populations thus, it is important to study the risk of infection considering spatio-temporal variation.

Methods

This study presents a joint spatio-temporal epidemiological model in a Bayesian setting using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation with the CARBayesST package of R software. For this purpose, monthly dengue records by district from 2002 to 2018 from the southern region of Thailand provided by the Ministry of Public Health of Thailand and eight environmental variables were used.

Results

Results show that an increasing level of temperature, number of rainy days and sea level pressure are associated with a higher occurrence of dengue fever and consequently higher incidence risk, while an increasing level of wind speed seems to suggest a protective factor. Likewise, we found that the elevated risks of dengue in the immediate future are in the districts of Phipun, Phrom Kili, Lan Saka, Phra Phrom and Chaloem Phakiat. The resulting estimates provide insights into the effects of covariate risk factors, spatio-temporal trends and dengue-related health inequalities at the district level in southern Thailand.

Conclusion

Possible implications are discussed considering some anthropogenic factors that could inhibit or enhance dengue occurrence. Risk maps indicated which districts are above and below baseline risk, allowing for the identification of local anomalies and high-risk boundaries. In the event of near future, the threat of elevated disease risk needs to be prevented and controlled considering the factors underlying the spread of mosquitoes in the Southeast Asian region.

Sociodemographic factors associated to knowledge and attitudes towards dengue prevention among the Peruvian population: findings from a national survey

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the frequency of knowledge and attitudes towards dengue prevention among the Peruvian population, as well as the sociodemographic factors associated with reported knowledge and attitude outcomes.

DESIGN/SETTING

A cross-sectional study was conducted, based on information from the National Survey of Budget Programs of Peru, 2019.

PARTICIPANTS

We included 57 829 respondents with a mean age of 40.3±17.4 years, of whom 52.8% were women and 87.6% were from urban areas.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOMES

Knowledge about dengue infection (transmission, symptoms, importance of going to a health centre and not self-medicating) and preventive attitudes to avoid infection.

RESULTS

Of all the respondents, 36.2% (n=23 247) presented good knowledge about dengue and 11.6% (n=7890) had a higher number of preventive attitudes (≥3 attitudes). In the multivariate regression analysis, we found that being female (for knowledge: aPR (adjusted prevalence ratio): 1.03; 95% CI 1.02 to 1.03; and for attitude: aPR: 1.02; 95% CI 1.01 to 1.02), being married/cohabiting (for knowledge: aPR: 1.02; 95% CI 1.00 to 1.03; and for attitude: aPR: 1.01; 95% CI 1.00 to 1.02) and residing in the jungle (for knowledge: aPR: 1.14; 95% CI 1.12 to 1.16; and for attitude: aPR: 1.09; 95% CI 1.07 to 1.11) were associated with better knowledge and more preventive attitudes. In addition, we found that being an adolescent (for knowledge: aPR: 0.97; 95% CI 0.96 to 0.99; and for attitude: aPR: 0.99; 95% CI 0.97 to 0.99), and belonging to the Quechua ethnic group (for knowledge: aPR: 0.93; 95% CI 0.91 to 0.94; and for attitude: aPR: 0.98; 95% CI 0.97 to 0.99) were associated with a lower proportion of adequate knowledge and fewer preventive attitudes.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study found a high proportion of poor knowledge and few preventive attitudes towards dengue in the Peruvian population. That highlights the requirement to implement national strategies to educate people about dengue and promote preventive attitudes, considering the factors found.

Is the presence of mosquitoes an indicator of poor environmental sanitation?

The World Health Organization has designated mosquitoes as the most lethal animal since they are known to spread pathogen-transmitting organisms. Understanding the many environmental elements that contribute to the spread of these vectors is one of the many strategies used to stop them. If there are mosquitoes around people, it may indicate that there is not an appropriate environmental sanitation program in place in the community or region. Environmental sanitation involves improving any elements of the physical environment that could have a negative impact on a person's survival, health, or physical environment. Keywords containing 'Aedes,' 'Culex,' 'Anopheles,' 'dengue,' 'malaria,' 'yellow fever,' 'Zika,' 'West Nile,' 'chikungunya,' 'resident,' 'environment,' 'sanitation,' 'mosquito control,' and 'breeding sites' of published articles on PubMed, Google Scholar, and ResearchGate were reviewed. It was discovered that the general population should be involved in mosquito and mosquito-borne disease control. Collaboration between health professionals and the general population is essential. The purpose of this paper is to increase public awareness of environmental health issues related to diseases carried by mosquitoes.

Can the establishment of national sanitary cities better resist the impact of COVID-19?

The global spread of COVID-19 has led to profound reflection on building a global public health security system. This paper uses the urban data collected during the COVID-19 epidemic in China in 2020 to evaluate the effect of the National Sanitary City (NSC) policy on the prevention and control of that epidemic at different stages. We found that the NSC policy was able to curb the occurrence and transmission of the epidemic the epidemic effectively after controlling a series of factors such as urban characteristics, population mobility and pathogen transmission. Compared with non-NSCs, the NSCs were better able to control the number of infected people and the infection rate and transmission rate, and this performance was even more impressive when the epidemic gradually entered the sporadic distribution stage. The heterogeneity analysis shows that the impact of the NSC policy on the prevention and control of COVID-19 differs according to the economic development level and population size. To a certain extent, the NSC policy has blocked the spread of viruses by continuously improving the urban medical and health system and strengthening the publicity concerning infectious disease prevention and control knowledge.

How does the COVID-19 affect earnings management: Empirical evidence from China

Using China's A-share listed companies from 2018 to 2020, this paper examines the impact of COVID-19 on earnings management. The results reveal that: (1) The COVID-19 shock intensifies earnings management, which is reflected in the increasing accrual-based earnings management and real earnings management. Moreover, when enterprises face a higher degree of financial constraints, this shock effect is more evident. (2) Enterprises in industries and regions where COVID-19 is more severe are more affected by the suspension of work and production caused by the epidemic prevention policies, so these enterprises choose accrual-based earnings management through accounting items rather than carrying out earnings management through real activities. (3) Further analysis finds that, enterprises with more investment opportunities have more evident earnings management caused by the COVID-19 shock. However, high-quality auditing has an inhibitory effect on accrual-based earnings management caused by the COVID-19 shock but has no inhibitory effect on real earnings management.

Machine-Learning-Based Forecasting of Dengue Fever in Brazilian Cities Using Epidemiologic and Meteorological Variables

Dengue is a serious public health concern in Brazil and globally. In the absence of a universal vaccine or specific treatments, prevention relies on vector control and disease surveillance. Accurate and early forecasts can help reduce the spread of the disease. In this study, we developed a model for predicting monthly dengue cases in Brazilian cities 1 month ahead, using data from 2007-2019. We compared different machine learning algorithms and feature selection methods using epidemiologic and meteorological variables. We found that different models worked best in different cities, and a random forests model trained on monthly dengue cases performed best overall. It produced lower errors than a seasonal naive baseline model, gradient boosting regression, a feed-forward neural network, or support vector regression. For each city, we computed the mean absolute error between predictions and true monthly numbers of dengue cases on the test data set. The median error across all cities was 12.2 cases. This error was reduced to 11.9 when selecting the optimal combination of algorithm and input features for each city individually. Machine learning and especially decision tree ensemble models may contribute to dengue surveillance in Brazil, as they produce low out-of-sample prediction errors for a geographically diverse set of cities.

Monitoring human arboviral diseases through wastewater surveillance: Challenges, progress and future opportunities

Arboviral diseases are caused by a group of viruses spread by the bite of infected arthropods. Amongst these, dengue, Zika, west nile fever and yellow fever cause the greatest economic and social impact. Arboviral epidemics have increased in frequency, magnitude and geographical extent over the past decades and are expected to continue increasing with climate change and expanding urbanisation. Arboviral prevalence is largely underestimated, as most infections are asymptomatic, nevertheless existing surveillance systems are based on passive reporting of loosely defined clinical syndromes with infrequent laboratory confirmation. Wastewater-based surveillance (WBS), which has been demonstrated to be useful for monitoring diseases with significant asymptomatic populations including COVID19 and polio, could be a useful complement to arboviral surveillance. We review the current state of knowledge and identify key factors that affect the feasibility of monitoring arboviral diseases by WBS to include viral shedding loads by infected persons, the persistence of shed arboviruses and the efficiency of their recovery from sewage. We provide a simple model on the volume of wastewater that needs to be processed for detection of arboviruses, in face of lower arboviral shedding rates. In all, this review serves to reflect on the key challenges that need to be addressed and overcome for successful implementation of arboviral WBS.

Importance of Public Transport Networks for Reconciling the Spatial Distribution of Dengue and the Association of Socio-Economic Factors with Dengue Risk in Bangkok, Thailand

Dengue is the most widespread mosquito-borne viral disease of man and spreading at an alarming rate. Socio-economic inequality has long been thought to contribute to providing an environment for viral propagation. However, identifying socio-economic (SE) risk factors is confounded by intra-urban daily human mobility, with virus being ferried across cities. This study aimed to identify SE variables associated with dengue at a subdistrict level in Bangkok, analyse how they explain observed dengue hotspots and assess the impact of mobility networks on such associations. Using meteorological, dengue case, national statistics, and transport databases from the Bangkok authorities, we applied statistical association and spatial analyses to identify SE variables associated with dengue and spatial hotspots and the extent to which incorporating transport data impacts the observed associations. We identified three SE risk factors at the subdistrict level: lack of education, % of houses being cement/brick, and number of houses as being associated with increased risk of dengue. Spatial hotspots of dengue were found to occur consistently in the centre of the city, but which did not entirely have the socio-economic risk factor characteristics. Incorporation of the intra-urban transport network, however, much improved the overall statistical association of the socio-economic variables with dengue incidence and reconciled the incongruous difference between the spatial hotspots and the SE risk factors. Our study suggests that incorporating transport networks enables a more real-world analysis within urban areas and should enable improvements in the identification of risk factors.

Data-driven computational intelligence applied to dengue outbreak forecasting: a case study at the scale of the city of Natal, RN-Brazil

Dengue is recognized as a health problem that causes significant socioeconomic impacts throughout the world, affecting millions of people each year. A commonly used method for monitoring the dengue vector is to count the eggs that Aedes aegypti mosquitoes have laid in spatially distributed ovitraps. Given this approach, the present study uses a database collected from 397 ovitraps allocated across the city of Natal, RN—Brazil. The Egg Density Index for each neighborhood was computed weekly, over four complete years (from 2016 to 2019), and simultaneously analyzed with the dengue case incidence. Our results illustrate that the incidence of dengue is related to the socioeconomic level of the neighborhoods in the city of Natal. A deep learning algorithm was used to predict future dengue case incidence, either based on the previous weeks of dengue incidence or the number of eggs present in the ovitraps. The analysis reveals that ovitrap data allows earlier prediction (four to six weeks) compared to dengue incidence itself (one week). Therefore, the results validate that the quantification of Aedes aegypti eggs can be valuable for the early planning of public health interventions.

Social and housing indicators of dengue and chikungunya in Indian adults aged 45 and above: Analysis of a nationally representative survey (2017-18)

Background

Dengue and chikungunya (CHIKV) are the two major vector-borne diseases of serious public health concern in India. Studies on socioeconomic and housing determinants of dengue and CHIKV at a pan-India level are lacking. Here, we took advantage of the recently carried out Longitudinal Ageing Study in India (LASI) carried out across all the states and Union Territories of India to study the social indicators of dengue and CHIKV in India.

Methods

LASI-1 (2017-2018) data on the self-reported period prevalence of dengue and CHIKV from 70,932 respondents aged ≥45 years were used for this analysis. The state-wise distribution of dengue and CHIKV was mapped. Prevalence was estimated for each study variable, and the difference was compared using the χ2 test. The adjusted odds ratios (AOR) of the socioeconomic and housing variables for dengue and CHIKV were estimated using the multiple logistic regression model.

Results

Urban residence is the major socio-economic indicator of dengue and CHIKV (dengue AOR: 1.57, 95% CI: 1.18-2.11; CHIKV AOR: 1.84, 95% CI: 1.36-2.49). The other notable indicator is wealth; rich respondents have higher odds of dengue and CHIKV. Adults older than 54 years and those with high school education and above are associated with a lower likelihood of dengue and CHIKV. In addition, CHIKV is associated with scheduled and forward castes, households with improper toilet facilities, open defecation, and kutcha house type.

Conclusions

Despite the limitation that the data is only from adults ≥ 45, this analysis provides important insights into the socioeconomic and housing variables associated with higher odds of dengue and CHIKV in India. Understanding these determinants may assist in the national planning of prevention and control strategies for dengue and CHIKV.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13690-022-00868-5.

Spatiotemporal high-resolution prediction and mapping: methodology and application to dengue disease

Dengue disease has become a major public health problem. Accurate and precise identification, prediction and mapping of high-risk areas are crucial elements of an effective and efficient early warning system in countering the spread of dengue disease. In this paper, we present the fusion area-cell spatiotemporal generalized geoadditive-Gaussian Markov random field (FGG-GMRF) framework for joint estimation of an area-cell model, involving temporally varying coefficients, spatially and temporally structured and unstructured random effects, and spatiotemporal interaction of the random effects. The spatiotemporal Gaussian field is applied to determine the unobserved relative risk at cell level. It is transformed to a Gaussian Markov random field using the finite element method and the linear stochastic partial differential equation approach to solve the "big n" problem. Sub-area relative risk estimates are obtained as block averages of the cell outcomes within each sub-area boundary. The FGG-GMRF model is estimated by applying Bayesian Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation. In the application to Bandung city, Indonesia, we combine low-resolution area level (district) spatiotemporal data on population at risk and incidence and high-resolution cell level data on weather variables to obtain predictions of relative risk at subdistrict level. The predicted dengue relative risk at subdistrict level suggests significant fine-scale heterogeneities which are not apparent when examining the area level. The relative risk varies considerably across subdistricts and time, with the latter showing an increase in the period January-July and a decrease in the period August-December.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10109-021-00368-0.

Recent dengue virus infection: epidemiological survey on risk factors associated with infection in a medium-sized city in Mato Grosso

BACKGROUND

Dengue is considered to be the most important arbovirus worldwide, with important complications that increase its lethality. In Brazil, an endemic country, the disease reaches significant incidence levels, with occurrences of serious cases and high costs of hospitalizations for its treatment.

OBJECTIVE

To analyze risk factors among individuals with recent histories of dengue infection in a medium-sized city in Mato Grosso.

DESIGN AND SETTING

Descriptive cross-sectional study, of epidemiological-survey type, conducted among the urban population of a city located in mid-northern Mato Grosso.

METHODS

A seroepidemiological survey using questionnaires and collection of biological material was conducted among 596 adults aged ≥ 18 years who had been selected through a cluster sampling process. Positive dengue cases were those with positive results from anti-dengue immunoassays (ELISA). Statistical analyses with descriptive and inferential techniques were used, with 95% confidence intervals and a 5% significance level.

RESULTS

The seroepidemiological profile of the study participants was predominantly female, with ages between 18 and 39 years, self-declared non-white race/color, not more than eight years of education and not living with a companion. Among the sanitary factors analyzed, the following were risk factors for dengue virus infection: no running water at home; no water supply from the public piped network; no waste from drains or toilets sent to the sewage network; endemic disease combat agents visiting the home; and presence of mosquito breeding sites at home.

CONCLUSION

Low schooling levels and previous dengue virus infection were associated with current dengue virus infection.

ARBOALVO: estratificação territorial para definição de áreas de pronta resposta para vigilância e controle de arboviroses urbanas em tempo oportuno

O objetivo deste trabalho foi apresentar a proposta metodológica denominada de “Pronta Resposta” modelada nas cidades de Belo Horizonte (Minas Gerais) e Natal (Rio Grande do Norte), Brasil. A metodologia visa identificar e delimitar áreas prioritárias para o direcionamento das ações de vigilância em tempo oportuno, buscando a redução da intensidade e velocidade da dispersão de epidemias em áreas urbanas endêmicas. Para tanto, a metodologia utiliza três variáveis, que representam as causas necessárias para a produção e reprodução da dengue: casos notificados (vírus), ovos de Aedes (vetor) e população (hospedeiro). Trata-se de um estudo ecológico que utilizou os dados dos três planos de informações agregados em escalas temporais e espaciais mais finas, de três a quatro semanas e grades de 400 a 600 metros respectivamente. As áreas de pronta resposta foram definidas por meio de análise estatística de varredura Scan, com definição de clusters espaciais simultâneos para os três planos por meio do programa SaTScan. Os resultados observados foram: na cidade de Natal, as áreas definidas como pronta resposta ocuparam em média 15,2% do território do município e concentraram 67,77% dos casos de dengue do período posterior ao utilizado na delimitação das áreas de pronta resposta, e em Belo Horizonte, os números observados foram de 64,16% dos casos em 23,23% do território. Esses resultados foram obtidos em duas cidades com realidades socioambientais e geográficas diferentes e com perfis epidemiológicos também distintos, apontando que a metodologia pode ser aplicada em diferentes realidades urbanas, criando a possibilidade de os programas de controle atuarem em porções reduzidas do território e impactar num alto percentual de casos em tempo oportuno.

Interaction of climate and socio-ecological environment drives the dengue outbreak in epidemic region of China

Transmission of dengue virus is a complex process with interactions between virus, mosquitoes and humans, influenced by multiple factors simultaneously. Studies have examined the impact of climate or socio-ecological factors on dengue, or only analyzed the individual effects of each single factor on dengue transmission. However, little research has addressed the interactive effects by multiple factors on dengue incidence. This study uses the geographical detector method to investigate the interactive effect of climate and socio-ecological factors on dengue incidence from two perspectives: over a long-time series and during outbreak periods; and surmised on the possibility of dengue outbreaks in the future. Results suggest that the temperature plays a dominant role in the long-time series of dengue transmission, while socio-ecological factors have great explanatory power for dengue outbreaks. The interactive effect of any two factors is greater than the impact of single factor on dengue transmission, and the interactions of pairs of climate and socio-ecological factors have more significant impact on dengue. Increasing temperature and surge in travel could cause dengue outbreaks in the future. Based on these results, three recommendations are offered regarding the prevention of dengue outbreaks: mitigating the urban heat island effect, adjusting the time and frequency of vector control intervention, and providing targeted health education to travelers at the border points. This study hopes to provide meaningful clues and a scientific basis for policymakers regarding effective interventions against dengue transmission, even during outbreaks.

Evaluating and strengthening the health system of Curaҫao to improve its performance for future outbreaks of vector-borne diseases

Background

Vector-borne diseases (VBDs) such as dengue, chikungunya, and Zika pose a significant challenge to health systems in countries they affect, especially countries with less developed healthcare systems. Therefore, countries are encouraged to work towards more resilient health systems. This qualitative study aims to examine the performance of the health system of the Dutch Caribbean island of Curaҫao regarding the prevention and control of VBDs in the last decade by using the WHO health system building blocks.

Methods

From November 2018 to December 2020, a multi-method qualitative study was performed in Curaçao, applying content analysis of documents (n = 50), five focus group discussions (n = 30), interviews with experts (n = 11) and 15 observation sessions. The study was designed based on the WHO framework: health system building blocks. Two cycles of inductive and deductive coding were employed, and Nvivo software was used to analyse the data.

Results

This study’s data highlighted the challenges (e.g. insufficient oversight, coordination, leadership skills, structure and communication) that the departments of the health system of Curaҫao faced during the last three epidemics of VBDs (2010–2020). Furthermore, low levels of collaboration between governmental and non-governmental organisations (e.g. semi-governmental and private laboratories) and insufficient capacity building to improve skills (e.g. entomological, surveillance skills) were also observed. Lastly, we observed how bottlenecks in one building block negatively influenced other building blocks (e.g. inadequate leadership/governance obstructed the workforce's performance).

Conclusions

This study uncovers potential organisational bottlenecks that have affected the performance of the health system of Curaҫao negatively. We recommend starting with the reinforcement of oversight of the integrated vector management programme to ensure the development, implementation and evaluation of related legislation, policies and interventions. Also, we recommend evaluating and reforming the existing administrative and organisational structure of the health system by considering the cultural style, challenges and barriers of the current health system. More efforts are needed to improve the documentation of agreements, recruitment and evaluation of the workforce's performance. Based on our findings, we conceptualised actions to strengthen the health system's building blocks to improve its performance for future outbreaks of infectious diseases.

Graphical abstract

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13071-021-05011-x.

Analysis of the spatial distribution of Aedes albopictus in an urban area of Shanghai, China

BACKGROUND

Aedes albopictus is a vector of major arboviral diseases and a primary pest in tropical and temperate regions of China. In most cities of China, the current monitoring system for the spread of Ae. albopictus is based on the subdistrict scale and does not consider spatial distribution for analysis of species density. Thus, the system is not sufficiently accurate for epidemic investigations, especially in large cities.

METHODS

This study used an improved surveillance program, with the mosquito oviposition trap (MOT) method, integrating the actual monitoring locations to investigate the temporal and spatial distribution of Ae. albopictus abundance in an urban area of Shanghai, China from 2018 to 2019. A total of 133 monitoring units were selected for surveillance of Ae. albopictus density in the study area, which was composed of 14 subdistricts. The vector abundance and spatial structure of Ae. albopictus were predicted using a binomial areal kriging model based on eight MOTs in each unit. Results were compared to the light trap (LT) method of the traditional monitoring scheme.

RESULTS

A total of 8,192 MOTs were placed in the study area in 2018, and 7917 (96.6%) were retrieved, with a positive rate of 6.45%. In 2019, 22,715 (97.0%) of 23,408 MOTs were recovered, with a positive rate of 5.44%. Using the LT method, 273 (93.5%) and 312 (94.5%) adult female Ae. albopictus were gathered in 2018 and 2019, respectively. The Ae. albopictus populations increased slowly from May, reached a peak in July, and declined gradually from September. The MOT positivity index (MPI) showed significant positive spatial autocorrelation across the study area, whereas LT collections indicated a nonsignificant spatial autocorrelation. The MPI was suitable for spatial interpolation using the binomial areal kriging model and showed different hot spots in different years.

CONCLUSIONS

The improved surveillance system integrated with a geographical information system (GIS) can improve our understanding of the spatial and temporal distribution of Ae. albopictus in urban areas and provide a practical method for decision-makers to implement vector control and mosquito management.

Stem Cell Therapy in Dengue Virus-Infected BALB/C Mice Improves Hepatic Injury

Extensive clinical efforts have been made to control the severity of dengue diseases; however, the dengue morbidity and mortality have not declined. Dengue virus (DENV) can infect and cause systemic damage in many organs, resulting in organ failure. Here, we present a novel report showing a tailored stem-cell-based therapy that can aid in viral clearance and rescue liver cells from further damage during dengue infection. We administered a combination of hematopoietic stem cells and endothelial progenitor cells in a DENV-infected BALB/c mouse model and found that delivery of this cell cocktail had improved their liver functions, confirmed by hematology, histopathology, and next-generation sequencing. These stem and progenitor cells can differentiate into target cells and repair the damaged tissues. In addition, the regime can regulate endothelial proliferation and permeability, modulate inflammatory reactions, enhance extracellular matrix production and angiogenesis, and secrete an array of growth factors to create an enhanced milieu for cell reparation. No previous study has been published on the treatment of dengue infection using stem cells combination. In conclusion, dengue-induced liver damage was rescued by administration of stem cell therapy, with less apoptosis and improved repair and regeneration in the dengue mouse model.

Temperature, traveling, slums, and housing drive dengue transmission in a non-endemic metropolis

Dengue is steadily increasing worldwide and expanding into higher latitudes. Current non-endemic areas are prone to become endemic soon. To improve understanding of dengue transmission in these settings, we assessed the spatiotemporal dynamics of the hitherto largest outbreak in the non-endemic metropolis of Buenos Aires, Argentina, based on detailed information on the 5,104 georeferenced cases registered during summer-autumn of 2016. The highly seasonal dengue transmission in Buenos Aires was modulated by temperature and triggered by imported cases coming from regions with ongoing outbreaks. However, local transmission was made possible and consolidated heterogeneously in the city due to housing and socioeconomic characteristics of the population, with 32.8% of autochthonous cases occurring in slums, which held only 6.4% of the city population. A hierarchical spatiotemporal model accounting for imperfect detection of cases showed that, outside slums, less-affluent neighborhoods of houses (vs. apartments) favored transmission. Global and local spatiotemporal point-pattern analyses demonstrated that most transmission occurred at or close to home. Additionally, based on these results, a point-pattern analysis was assessed for early identification of transmission foci during the outbreak while accounting for population spatial distribution. Altogether, our results reveal how social, physical, and biological processes shape dengue transmission in Buenos Aires and, likely, other non-endemic cities, and suggest multiple opportunities for control interventions.

Dengue fever is mainly transmitted by a mosquito species that is highly urbanized, and lays eggs and develops mostly in artificial water containers. Dengue transmission is sustained year-round in most tropical regions of the world, but in many subtropical/temperate regions it occurs only in the warmest months. To improve understanding of dengue transmission in these regions, we analyzed one of the largest outbreaks in Buenos Aires city, a subtropical metropolis. Based on information on 5,104 georeferenced cases during summer-autumn 2016, we found that most transmission occurred in or near home, that slums had the highest risk of transmission, and that, outside slums, less-affluent neighborhoods of houses (vs. apartments) favored transmission. We showed that the cumulative effects of temperature over the previous few weeks set the temporal limits for transmission to occur, and that the outbreak was sparked by infected people arriving from regions with ongoing outbreaks. Additionally, we implemented a statistical method to identify transmission foci in real-time that improves targeting control interventions. Our results deepen the understanding of dengue transmission as a result of social, physical, and biological processes, and pose multiple opportunities for improving control of dengue and other mosquito-borne viruses such as Zika, chikungunya, and yellow fever.

Population mobility, demographic, and environmental characteristics of dengue fever epidemics in a major city in Southeastern Brazil, 2007-2015

Around 14% of world dengue virus (DENV) cases occur in the Americas, most of them in Brazil. While socioeconomic, environmental, and behavioral correlates have been analyzed thoroughly, the role played by population mobility on DENV epidemics, especially at the local level, remains scarce. This study assesses whether the daily pattern of population mobility is associated with DENV incidence in Campinas, a Brazilian major city with over 1.2 million inhabitants in São Paulo State. DENV notifications from 2007 to 2015 were geocoded at street level (n = 114,884) and combined with sociodemographic and environmental data from the 2010 population census. Population mobility was extracted from the Origin-Destination Survey (ODS), carried out in 2011, and daily precipitation was obtained from satellite imagery. Multivariate zero-inflated negative binomial regression models were applied. High population mobility presented a relevant positive effect on higher risk for DENV incidence. High income and residence in apartments were found to be protective characteristics against the disease, while unpaved streets, number of strategic points (such as scrapyards and tire repair shops), and precipitation were consistently risk factors.

Twenty-Two years of dengue fever (1996-2017): an epidemiological study in a Brazilian city

This ecological study analyzed the temporal pattern of clinically diagnosed and laboratory confirmed dengue cases in Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil from 1996 to 2017. The study was divided into two analytical parts, the first of which evaluated the association between dengue incidence and host and climatic factors. The second part encompassed data from 2002 to 2017 and examined dengue incidence in relation to virus serotype and an intra-urban socioeconomic index. Over 22 years there were 469,171 cases and four epidemic peaks. There was an increase in the number, severity, and lethality of cases over the last 10 years of the study period. Biological and environmental factors appear to modulate the behavior of dengue in a large urban center.

Climatic and socio-economic factors supporting the co-circulation of dengue, Zika and chikungunya in three different ecosystems in Colombia

Dengue, Zika and chikungunya are diseases of global health significance caused by arboviruses and transmitted by the mosquito Aedes aegypti, which is of worldwide circulation. The arrival of the Zika and chikungunya viruses to South America increased the complexity of transmission and morbidity caused by these viruses co-circulating in the same vector mosquito species. Here we present an integrated analysis of the reported arbovirus cases between 2007 and 2017 and local climate and socio-economic profiles of three distinct Colombian municipalities (Bello, Cúcuta and Moniquirá). These locations were confirmed as three different ecosystems given their contrasted geographic, climatic and socio-economic profiles. Correlational analyses were conducted with both generalised linear models and generalised additive models for the geographical data. Average temperature, minimum temperature and wind speed were strongly correlated with disease incidence. The transmission of Zika during the 2016 epidemic appeared to decrease circulation of dengue in Cúcuta, an area of sustained high incidence of dengue. Socio-economic factors such as barriers to health and childhood services, inadequate sanitation and poor water supply suggested an unfavourable impact on the transmission of dengue, Zika and chikungunya in all three ecosystems. Socio-demographic influencers were also discussed including the influx of people to Cúcuta, fleeing political and economic instability from neighbouring Venezuela. Aedes aegypti is expanding its range and increasing the global threat of these diseases. It is therefore vital that we learn from the epidemiology of these arboviruses and translate it into an actionable local knowledge base. This is even more acute given the recent historical high of dengue cases in the Americas in 2019, preceding the COVID-19 pandemic, which is itself hampering mosquito control efforts.

Cross-sectional study to measure household water insecurity and its health outcomes in urban Mexico

OBJECTIVE

To assess the links between structural and household determinants of household water insecurity and test three water insecurity measures against self-reported diarrhoea, dengue fever and perceived stress in the middle-income and low-income urban areas of Torreón, Mexico.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional household survey conducted in two waves (rainy and dry seasons).

PARTICIPANTS

500 households selected via multistage cluster sample in selected communities. Socioeconomic status determined the selection of participant neighbourhoods; five were identified in low socioeconomic status neighbourhoods and five in low-medium socioeconomic status neighbourhoods. We examine how the context of urban water provision is related to a new cross-culturally valid Household Water Insecurity Experiences (HWISE) Scale.

PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES

The HWISE Scale, self-reported diarrhoea, dengue fever and the Perceived Stress Scale.

RESULTS

Water system intermittency (adjusted OR (AOR) 3.96, 95% CI 2.40 to 6.54, p<0.001), unpredictability (AOR 2.24, 95% CI 1.34 to 3.74, p=0.002) and the dry season (AOR 3.47, 95% CI 2.18 to 5.52, p<0.001) were structural correlates of the HWISE Scale. This study also found that the HWISE Scale was associated with two health outcomes, self-reported diarrhoea (AOR 1.09, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.15, p=0.002) and perceived stress (β=0.28, SE=0.07, t=4.30, p<0.001), but not self-reported dengue fever (AOR 1.02, 95% CI 0.98 to 1.06). A 3-item hygiene subscore and a 3-item water worry subscore were also both positively associated with self-reported diarrhoea and perceived stress.

CONCLUSION

Short-form screeners of water insecurity may be useful for assessing certain health risks by lay survey workers in settings with limited healthcare resources, particularly in lieu of more expensive microbiological tests that require specialised training and facilities.

Exploring the utility of social-ecological and entomological risk factors for dengue infection as surveillance indicators in the dengue hyper-endemic city of Machala, Ecuador

The management of mosquito-borne diseases is a challenge in southern coastal Ecuador, where dengue is hyper-endemic and co-circulates with other arboviral diseases. Prior work in the region has explored social-ecological factors, dengue case data, and entomological indices. In this study, we bring together entomological and epidemiological data to describe links between social-ecological factors associated with risk of dengue transmission at the household level in Machala, Ecuador. Households surveys were conducted from 2014-2017 to assess the presence of adult Aedes aegypti (collected via aspiration) and to enumerate housing conditions, demographics, and mosquito prevention behaviors. Household-level dengue infection status was determined by laboratory diagnostics in 2014-2015. Bivariate analyses and multivariate logistic regression models were used to identify social-ecological variables associated with household presence of female Ae. aegypti and household dengue infection status, respectively. Aedes aegypti presence was associated with interruptions in water service and weekly trash collection, and household air conditioning was protective against mosquito presence. Presence of female Ae. aegypti was not associated with household dengue infections. We identified shaded patios and head of household employment status as risk factors for household-level dengue infection, while window screening in good condition was identified as protective against dengue infection. These findings add to our understanding of the systems of mosquito-borne disease transmission in Machala, and in the larger region of southern Ecuador, aiding in the development of improved vector surveillance efforts, and targeted interventions.

Social and environmental risk factors for dengue in Delhi city: A retrospective study

Global urbanization is leading to an inexorable spread of several major diseases that need to be stemmed. Dengue is one of these major diseases spreading in cities today, with its principal mosquito vector superbly adapted to the urban environment. Current mosquito control strategies are proving inadequate, especially in the face of such urbanisation and novel, evidence-based targeted approaches are needed. Through combined epidemiological and entomological approaches, we aimed to identify a novel sanitation strategy to alleviate the burden of dengue through how the dengue virus spreads through the community. We combined surveillance case mapping, prospective serological studies, year-round mosquito surveys, socio-economic and Knowledge Attitudes and Practices surveys across Delhi. We identified lack of access to tap water (≤98%) as an important risk factor for dengue virus IgG sero-positivity (adjusted Odds Ratio 4.69, 95% C.I. 2.06–10.67) and not poverty per se. Wealthier districts had a higher dengue burden despite lower mosquito densities than the Intermediary income communities (adjusted Odds Ratio 2.92, 95% C.I. 1.26–6.72). This probably reflects dengue being introduced by people travelling from poorer areas to work in wealthier houses. These poorer, high density areas, where temperatures are also warmer, also had dengue cases during the winter. Control strategies based on improved access to a reliable supply of tap water plus focal intervention in intra-urban heat islands prior to the dengue season could not only lead to a reduction in mosquito abundance but also eliminate the reservoir of dengue virus clearly circulating at low levels in winter in socio-economically disadvantaged areas.

Identifying disease hotspots and individual risk factors for dengue can enable targeted intervention strategies. We conducted combined serological, entomological and socio-economic surveys across 18 areas within Delhi, taken from the total 1280 colonies (i.e. the administrative units of reference in Delhi) for which we classified their socio-economic typology. We additionally performed a Knowledge, Attitudes, Practices survey at a household level within the most socially disadvantaged sub-districts. Finally, we mapped all the winter dengue cases to 250 m x 250 m units along with their winter mean temperatures. We found that access to tap water was an important risk factor for exposure to dengue virus (DENV) and this was confirmed even within the socially disadvantaged sub-districts. The Wealthy colonies had a high burden of DENV infection despite low mosquito densities, likely linked to their connectedness through daily human mobility. The winter burden of dengue occurred majoritarily in the socio-economically disadvantaged colonies, which also have higher mean temperatures and urban heat islands. Improved access to tap water could lead to a reduction in dengue, not only for those directly affected but for the general population. Targeted intervention through mosquito control in winter in the socially disadvantaged areas could offer a rational strategy for optimising control efforts.

Exploration of population ecological factors related to the spatial heterogeneity of dengue fever cases diagnosed through a national network of laboratories in India, 2017

Background & objectives:

Dengue virus (DENV) transmission is known to be influenced by the environmental conditions. During 2017, the Viral Research and Diagnostic Laboratories (VRDLs) tested 78,744 suspected dengue fever (DF) patients, of whom, 21,260 were laboratory confirmed. The objectives of the study were to evaluate the hypothesis that spatial heterogeneity existed for DF patients and to identify significant determinants of DENV transmission in various districts across the Indian States during 2017.

Methods:

Laboratory confirmed DF cases were analysed from 402 districts spread across the Indian States. The determinants for DF transmission included in the model were population density, proportion of population living in rural areas, proportion of forest cover area to the total geographical area, proportion of persons not able to read and write and who were aged greater than seven years; the climatic variables considered were minimum, maximum and average temperature, precipitation and cumulative rainfall. The spatial heterogeneity was assessed using spatial regression analysis.

Results:

DF cases showed strong spatial dependency, with Moran's I=4.44 (P<0.001). The robust measure for spatial lag (6.55; P=0.01) was found to be the best model fit for the data set. Minimum temperature and cumulative rainfall were significant predictors.

Interpretation & conclusions:

A significant increase in the number of dengue cases has occurred when the minimum temperature was 23.0-25.8°C and the cumulative rainfall 118.14-611.64 mm across the Indian districts. Further in-depth investigations incorporating more number of demographic, ecological and socio-economic factors would be needed for robust conclusions.

Dengue Seroprevalence and Seroconversion in Urban and Rural Populations in Northeastern Thailand and Southern Laos

Dengue is the most rapidly spreading mosquito-borne viral disease in the world. The detection of clinical cases enables us to measure the incidence of dengue infection, whereas serological surveys give insights into the prevalence of infection. This study aimed to determine dengue seroprevalence and seroconversion rates in northeastern Thailand and southern Laos and to assess any association of mosquito control methods and socioeconomic factors with dengue virus (DENV) infection. Cross-sectional seroprevalence surveys were performed in May and November 2019 on the same individuals. Blood samples were collected from one adult and one child, when possible, in each of 720 randomly selected households from two urban and two rural sites in both northeastern Thailand and southern Laos. IgG antibodies against DENV were detected in serum using a commercial enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) kit. Overall, 1071 individuals participated in the study. The seroprevalence rate was high (91.5%) across all 8 study sites. Only age and province were associated with seroprevalence rates. There were 33 seroconversions during the period from May to November, of which seven reported fever. More than half of the seroconversions occurred in the rural areas and in Laos. Dengue seroconversion was significantly associated with young age (<15 years old), female gender, province, and duration of living in the current residence. No socioeconomic factors or mosquito control methods were found to be associated with seroprevalence or seroconversion. Notably, however, the province with most seroconversions had lower diurnal temperature ranges than elsewhere. In conclusion, our study has highlighted the homogeneity of dengue exposure across a wide range of settings and most notably those from rural and urban areas. Dengue can no longer be considered to be solely an urban disease nor necessarily one linked to poverty.

Knowledge, Attitudes, and Practices Related to Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever in Hermosillo, México

Rocky Mountain spotted fever (RMSF) is a serious disease in northwest Mexico, particularly in low-income communities. This study aimed to evaluate RMSF-related knowledge, attitudes, and practices in an endemic urban area with a high burden of the disease. A cross-sectional study design using a non-probabilistic household survey was conducted with 400 residents in Hermosillo, Mexico. Primary themes assessed included dog and tick-related exposure, RMSF knowledge, healthcare-seeking behavior, sociodemographic data, and household information. The majority (59%) of those surveyed had heard about RMSF, although only 36% of RMSF-aware respondents knew any RMSF symptoms. Among RMSF-aware respondents, 26% did not know or were unsure of prevention strategies. Individuals in the low socioeconomic status (SES) stratum were less likely to have heard about RMSF (odds ratio [OR]: 0.39; 95% CI: 0.25-0.59), use dog collars or any other product to avoid ticks (OR: 0.40; 95% CI: 0.17-0.99), or check their dogs for ticks (OR: 0.25; 95% CI: 0.09-0.74). The likelihood of observing high numbers of free-roaming dogs in their neighborhood was four times higher in the low SES stratum (OR: 4.19; 95% CI: 2.10-8.38) than in the high SES stratum. These findings emphasize the need for an integrative community approach to improve early recognition of symptoms and knowledge of prevention strategies, particularly in low SES neighborhoods.

The east coast districts are the possible epicenter of severe dengue in Sabah

BACKGROUND

Malaysia recorded the highest number of dengue cases between 2014 and 2017. There are 13 states and three federal territories in Malaysia, and each area varies in their prevalence of dengue. Sabah is one of the states situated in Borneo, Malaysia. Although dengue has been increasing for the last several years, no study was being done to understand the burden and serotype distribution of the dengue virus (DENV) in Sabah. Therefore, the present study was carried out to understand the epidemiology of the dengue infection and the factors responsible for severe dengue in Sabah.

METHODS

Data on dengue infection were extracted from the dengue database of the state of Sabah from 2013 through 2018. DENV NS-1-positive serum samples from multiple sites throughout Sabah were sent to the state public health laboratory, Kota Kinabalu Public Health Laboratory, for serotype determination. The analysis of factors associated with severe dengue was determined from the data of 2018 only.

RESULTS

In 2013, there were 724 dengue cases; however, from 2014, dengue cases increased exponentially and resulted in 3423 cases in 2018. Increasing dengue cases also led to increased dengue mortality. The number of dengue deaths in 2013 was only five which then gradually increased, and in 2018, 29 patients died. This is an increase of 580% from 2013 to 2018. Deaths were considerably more in the districts of the east coast of Sabah compared with districts in the west coast. During the study period, all DENV serotypes could be identified as serotypes circulating in Sabah. In 2018, the predominant serotype was DENV-3. The monthly peak of dengue infection varied in different years. In the logistic regression analysis, it was identified that children were 6.5 times, patients infected with mixed serotype of DENV were 13 times, and cases from the districts of the east coast were 5.2 times more likely to develop severe dengue.

CONCLUSIONS

An increasing trend of dengue infection has been observed in Sabah. The burden of dengue, severe dengue, and mortality was noted especially in the districts of the east coast of Sabah. Severe dengue was most likely developed in children, cases from the east coast, and patients infected with mixed serotype of DENV.

Impacts of fluorescent powders on survival of different age cohorts, blood-feeding success, and tethered flight speed of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) females

Fluorescent powders are one of the most common external markers used to study mosquito behavior and ecology. For their reliable and practical use, it is important to evaluate their effect on biological parameters such as survival, blood-feeding, and mobility. We evaluated the effect of five different fluorescent powders (Day-Glo ® ECO Series) on the survival of different age cohorts, blood-feeding success, and tethered flight speed on Aedes aegypti (Linnaeus) adult females. For survival analysis, three cohorts (2-5, 6-9 and 10-13 days old) were marked and mortality recorded until all died. To examine the effect of fluorescent powders on female response to blood-feeding, the proportions of unfed, partially fed, and fully engorged females, after being exposed to host blood under two different time sets (20 and 40 min.), were compared. Their impact on female tethered flight speed was evaluated recording their flight for 30 min. with a flight mill. Survival distributions between treatments were not significantly different within each cohort. Blood-feeding was not significantly different among marked or unmarked females at both times of blood exposure, with the exception of Signal Green-ECO 18 and Ultra Violet- ECO 20 (at 20 and 40 min.), in which a higher proportion of partially fed females was observed compared to control females. In relation to flight performance, no statistically significant difference in mean tethered flight speed (m/s), among marked and unmarked mosquito groups, was observed. Our results indicate that the tested powders and application method have few significant impacts on Ae. aegypti survival, blood-feeding success and flight performance, and are thus suitable for investigations of mosquito biology in the environment.

Effects of natural and socioeconomic factors on dengue transmission in two cities of China from 2006 to 2017

Dengue fever (DF) is a common and rapidly spreading vector-borne viral disease in tropical and subtropical regions. In recent years, in China, DF still poses an increasing threat to public health in many cities; but the incidence shows significant spatiotemporal differences. The purpose of this study was to identify the key factors affecting the spatial and temporal distribution of DF. We collected natural environmental and socio-economic data for two adjacent cities, Guangzhou (73 variables) and Foshan (71 variables), with the most DF cases in China. We performed random forest modelling to rank the factors according to their level of importance, and used negative binomial regression analysis to compare the risk factors between outbreak years and non-outbreak years. The natural environmental factors contributing to DF incidence for Guangzhou were temperature (relative risk (RR) = 18.80, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 3.11-113.67), humidity (RR = 1.85, 95% CI = 1.17-2.90) and green area (RR = 12.11, 95% CI = 6.14-55.50), and for Foshan was forest coverage (RR = 5.83, 95% CI = 2.72-12.45). Socio-economic impact were shown in Guangzhou with foreign visitor (RR = 1.18, 95% CI = 1.05-1.34) and oversea air passenger transport (RR = 7.34, 95% CI = 2.26-23.86); in Foshan, with oversea tourism (RR = 1.65, 95% CI = 1.34-2.04); and in Guangzhou-Foshan, with the development of intercity metro (RR = 1.26, 95% CI = 1.10-1.44). The difference between the two cities was the greater impact of the foreign visitor, green spaces and climate factor on DF in Guangzhou; the impact of the construction of intercity metro; and the more significant impact of oversea tourism on DF in Foshan. Our results suggest meaningful clues to public health authorities implementing joint interventions on DF prevention and early warning, to increase health education on DF prevention for international visitors and oversea travelers, and cross-city metro passengers; using rapid body temperature detection in public places such as airports, metros and parks can help detect cases early.

Possible Factors Influencing the Seroprevalence of Dengue among Residents of the Forest Fringe Areas of Peninsular Malaysia

Dengue is an endemic mosquito-borne viral disease prevalent in many urban areas of the tropic, especially the Southeast Asia. Its presence among the indigenous population of Peninsular Malaysia (Orang Asli), however, has not been well described. The present study was performed to investigate the seroprevalence of dengue among the Orang Asli (OA) residing at the forest fringe areas of Peninsular Malaysia and determine the factors that could affect the transmission of dengue among the OA. Eight OA communities consisting of 491 individuals were recruited. From the study, at least 17% of the recruited study participants were positive for dengue IgG, indicating past exposure to dengue. Analysis on the demographic and socioeconomic variables suggested that high seroprevalence of dengue was significantly associated with those above 13 years old and a low household income of less than MYR500 (USD150). It was also associated with the vast presence of residential areas and the presence of a lake. Remote sensing analysis showed that higher land surface temperatures and lower land elevations also contributed to higher dengue seroprevalence. The present study suggested that both demographic and geographical factors contributed to the increasing risk of contracting dengue among the OA living at the forest fringe areas of Peninsular Malaysia. The OA, hence, remained vulnerable to dengue.

Dengue Fever and Severe Dengue in Barbados, 2008-2016

Analysis of the temporal, seasonal and demographic distribution of dengue virus (DENV) infections in Barbados was conducted using national surveillance data from a total of 3994 confirmed dengue cases. Diagnosis was confirmed either by DENV-specific real time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR), or non-structural protein 1 (NS1) antigen or enzyme linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) tests; a case fatality rate of 0.4% (10/3994) was observed. The prevalence rate of dengue fever (DF) varied from 27.5 to 453.9 cases per 100,000 population among febrile patients who sought medical attention annually. DF cases occurred throughout the year with low level of transmission observed during the dry season (December to June), then increased transmission during rainy season (July to November) peaking in October. Three major dengue epidemics occurred in Barbados during 2010, 2013 and possibly 2016 with an emerging three-year interval. DF prevalence rate among febrile patients who sought medical attention overall was highest among the 10-19 years old age group. The highest DF hospitalisation prevalence rate was observed in 2013. Multiple serotypes circulated during the study period and Dengue virus serotype 2 (DENV-2) was the most prevalent serotype during 2010, whilst DENV-1 was the most prevalent serotype in 2013. Two DENV-1 strains from the 2013 DENV epidemic were genetically more closely related to South East Asian strains, than Caribbean or South American strains, and represent the first ever sequencing of DENV strains in Barbados. However, the small sample size (n = 2) limits any meaningful conclusions. DF prevalence rates were not significantly different between females and males. Public health planning should consider DENV inter-epidemic periodicity, the current COVID-19 pandemic and similar clinical symptomology between DF and COVID-19. The implementation of routine sequencing of DENV strains to obtain critical data can aid in battling DENV epidemics in Barbados.

A Mapping Review on Urban Landscape Factors of Dengue Retrieved from Earth Observation Data, GIS Techniques, and Survey Questionnaires

To date, there is no effective treatment to cure dengue fever, a mosquito-borne disease which has a major impact on human populations in tropical and sub-tropical regions. Although the characteristics of dengue infection are well known, factors associated with landscape are highly scale dependent in time and space, and therefore difficult to monitor. We propose here a mapping review based on 78 articles that study the relationships between landscape factors and urban dengue cases considering household, neighborhood and administrative levels. Landscape factors were retrieved from survey questionnaires, Geographic Information Systems (GIS), and remote sensing (RS) techniques. We structured these into groups composed of land cover, land use, and housing type and characteristics, as well as subgroups referring to construction material, urban typology, and infrastructure level. We mapped the co-occurrence networks associated with these factors, and analyzed their relevance according to a three-valued interpretation (positive, negative, non significant). From a methodological perspective, coupling RS and GIS techniques with field surveys including entomological observations should be systematically considered, as none digital land use or land cover variables appears to be an univocal determinant of dengue occurrences. Remote sensing urban mapping is however of interest to provide a geographical frame to distribute human population and movement in relation to their activities in the city, and as spatialized input variables for epidemiological and entomological models.

Latent Infectious Capacities of Dengue Fever: Mathematical Modeling and Eco-Friendly Prevention Strategy

The main aim of this article is to propose a method for exploring the latent values about the capacities of spreading dengue for each potential site. First, a mathematical model connecting the observable public data and the capacities of spreading dengue is provided based on the split feasibility problem (SFP). Then, a proper iterative scheme for the SFP is presented to approach the values of infectious capacities (ICs) of potential sites—the capacities of spreading. The performance of our proposed method is demonstrated using public data from Kaohsiung City for 2014 and 2015. The results presented in this paper show that our proposed method is reliable and the sites with a high capacity of spreading are only a small portion of thousands of all potential sites and could be an alternative strategy for preventing the outbreak of dengue fever whilst also avoiding the damage of ecosystems caused by chemical insecticides.

Detection of Fluorescent Powders and Their Effect on Survival and Recapture of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae)

The use of insect markers, such as fluorescent powders, is a useful tool for studying ecological and epidemiological questions. Evaluating their effect on vectors of human disease agents, such as the invasive mosquito vector Aedes aegypti (Linnaeus), is crucial for their practical and reliable use, especially in parameters linked to the risk of disease transmission such as adult survival, dispersal, and host-seeking. Seven fluorescent powders (Hercules Radiant, DayGlo (DG), Risk Reactor (RR), and Angstrom Technologies), applied externally on cohorts of Ae. aegypti female mosquitoes, were tested to determine their impact on survival and recapture by baited mosquito traps, and their detectability after being exposed to controlled laboratory and semifield environments. There were no significant differences in survival among marked and unmarked females across all powders. Marked females were significantly less likely to be captured in baited traps relative to unmarked females, except for one of the DG powders. All females remained visibly marked on five parts of their body for 30 d (under both environments), except for one of the RR powders. The tested powders and application method are suitable for tracking mosquitoes throughout most of their lives under different environments, without significantly affecting their survival, but with potential impact on recapture by baited traps, possibly due to effects on senses or other physiological traits.

Examining the Effect of the Environment and Commuting Flow from/to Epidemic Areas on the Spread of Dengue Fever

Environment and human mobility have been considered as two important factors that drive the outbreak and transmission of dengue fever (DF). Most studies focus on the local environment while neglecting environment of the places, especially epidemic areas that people came from or traveled to. Commuting is a major form of interactions between places. Therefore, this research generates commuting flows from mobile phone tracked data. Geographically weighted Poisson regression (GWPR) and analysis of variance (ANOVA) are used to examine the effect of commuting flows, especially those from/to epidemic areas, on DF in 2014 at the Jiedao level in Guangzhou. The results suggest that (1) commuting flows from/to epidemic areas affect the transmission of DF; (2) such effects vary in space; and (3) the spatial variation of the effects can be explained by the environment of the epidemic areas that commuters commuted from/to. These findings have important policy implications for making effective intervention strategies, especially when resources are limited.

Assessing the interplay between human mobility and mosquito borne diseases in urban environments

Urbanization drives the epidemiology of infectious diseases to many threats and new challenges. In this research, we study the interplay between human mobility and dengue outbreaks in the complex urban environment of the city-state of Singapore. We integrate both stylized and mobile phone data-driven mobility patterns in an agent-based transmission model in which humans and mosquitoes are represented as agents that go through the epidemic states of dengue. We monitor with numerical simulations the system-level response to the epidemic by comparing our results with the observed cases reported during the 2013 and 2014 outbreaks. Our results show that human mobility is a major factor in the spread of vector-borne diseases such as dengue even on the short scale corresponding to intra-city distances. We finally discuss the advantages and the limits of mobile phone data and potential alternatives for assessing valuable mobility patterns for modeling vector-borne diseases outbreaks in cities.

Large scale detailed mapping of dengue vector breeding sites using street view images

Targeted environmental and ecosystem management remain crucial in control of dengue. However, providing detailed environmental information on a large scale to effectively target dengue control efforts remains a challenge. An important piece of such information is the extent of the presence of potential dengue vector breeding sites, which consist primarily of open containers such as ceramic jars, buckets, old tires, and flowerpots. In this paper we present the design and implementation of a pipeline to detect outdoor open containers which constitute potential dengue vector breeding sites from geotagged images and to create highly detailed container density maps at unprecedented scale. We implement the approach using Google Street View images which have the advantage of broad coverage and of often being two to three years old which allows correlation analyses of container counts against historical data from manual surveys. Containers comprising eight of the most common breeding sites are detected in the images using convolutional neural network transfer learning. Over a test set of images the object recognition algorithm has an accuracy of 0.91 in terms of F-score. Container density counts are generated and displayed on a decision support dashboard. Analyses of the approach are carried out over three provinces in Thailand. The container counts obtained agree well with container counts from available manual surveys. Multi-variate linear regression relating densities of the eight container types to larval survey data shows good prediction of larval index values with an R-squared of 0.674. To delineate conditions under which the container density counts are indicative of larval counts, a number of factors affecting correlation with larval survey data are analyzed. We conclude that creation of container density maps from geotagged images is a promising approach to providing detailed risk maps at large scale.

Spatiotemporal Heterogeneity in the Distribution of Chikungunya and Zika Virus Case Incidences during their 2014 to 2016 Epidemics in Barranquilla, Colombia

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) and Zika virus (ZIKV) have recently emerged as globally important infections. This study aimed to explore the spatiotemporal heterogeneity in the occurrence of CHIKV and ZIKV outbreaks throughout the major international seaport city of Barranquilla, Colombia in 2014 and 2016 and the potential for clustering. Incidence data were fitted using multiple Bayesian Poisson models based on multiple explanatory variables as potential risk factors identified from other studies and options for random effects. A best fit model was used to analyse their case incidence risks and identify any risk factors during their epidemics. Neighbourhoods in the northern region were hotspots for both CHIKV and ZIKV outbreaks. Additional hotspots occurred in the southwestern and some eastern/southeastern areas during their outbreaks containing part of, or immediately adjacent to, the major circular city road with its import/export cargo warehouses and harbour area. Multivariate conditional autoregressive models strongly identified higher socioeconomic strata and living in a neighbourhood near a major road as risk factors for ZIKV case incidences. These findings will help to appropriately focus vector control efforts but also challenge the belief that these infections are driven by social vulnerability and merit further study both in Barranquilla and throughout the world's tropical and subtropical regions.

Surveillance of Aedes aegypti indoors and outdoors using Autocidal Gravid Ovitraps in South Texas during local transmission of Zika virus, 2016 to 2018

The yellow fever mosquito, Aedes aegypti, has facilitated the re-emergence of dengue virus (DENV) and emergence of chikungunya virus (CHIKV) and Zika virus (ZIKV) in the Americas and the Caribbean. The recent transmission of these arboviruses in the continental United States has been limited, to date, to South Florida and South Texas despite Ae. aegypti occurring over a much larger geographical region within the country. The main goal of our study was to provide the first long term longitudinal study of Ae. aegypti and enhance the knowledge about the indoor and outdoor relative abundance of Ae. aegypti as a proxy for mosquito-human contact in South Texas, a region of the United States that is at high risk for mosquito-borne virus transmission. Here, the relative abundance of indoors and outdoors mosquitoes of households in eight different communities was described. Surveillance was done weekly from September 2016 to April 2018 using the CDC Autocidal Gravid Ovitraps in low- and middle-income communities. A total of 69 houses were included in this survey among which 36 were in the low-income communities (n = 11 for Donna, n = 15 for Progresso, n = 5 for Mesquite, n = 5 for Chapa) and 33 in middle-income communities (n = 9 for La Feria, n = 8 for Weslaco, n = 11 for McAllen, and n = 5 for Rio Rico). Overall, Ae. aegypti was the dominant species (59.2% of collections, n = 7255) followed by Culex spp. mosquitoes (27.3% of collections, n = 3350). Furthermore, we demonstrated for Ae. aegypti that 1) outdoor relative abundance was higher compared to indoor relative abundance, 2) low-income communities were associated with an increase in mosquito relative abundance indoors when compared to middle-income communities, 3) no difference was observed in the number of mosquitoes collected outdoors between low-income and middle-income communities, and 4) warmer months were positively correlated with outdoor relative abundance whereas no seasonality was observed in the relative abundance of mosquitoes indoors. Additionally, Ae. aegypti mosquitoes collected in South Texas were tested using a specific ZIKV/CHIKV multiplex real-time PCR assay, however, none of the mosquitoes tested positive. Our data highlights the occurrence of mosquitoes indoors in the continental United States and that adults are collected nearly every week of the calendar year. These mosquito data, obtained concurrently with local ZIKV transmission of 10 locally acquired cases in nearby communities, represent a baseline for future studies in the Lower Rio Grande Valley (LRGV) including vector control interventions relying on the oviposition behavior to reduce mosquito populations and pathogen transmission.

Social determinants of health associated with topical repellent use in pregnancy: a cross-sectional study during a Zika outbreak in Brazil

Background

Repellent use during pregnancy was strongly recommended after uncovering Zika virus (ZIKV) involvement with congenital malformations. In this context, Pernambuco, Brazil played a key role since it was the epicentre for the main studies suggesting ZIKV teratogenicity and one of Brazil's most affected states during the 2014-2016 epidemics. Thus we aimed to identify possible associations between social determinants of health and repellent use in pregnancy during the ZIKV outbreak in Pernambuco.

Methods

We conducted a cross-sectional study (July-December 2016) with 539 pregnant women residing in Pernambuco and estimated the associations by prevalence ratio and multivariable logistic regression.

Results

Repellents were associated with pregnant women ≥30 y; graduates, employed, health professionals, private health system users and with a monthly income per person greater than two minimum wages. Women whose domiciles favour mosquitoes (ground-floor houses, intermittent water supply from general distribution or water trucks and for ≤6 d/week, cesspools/open wastewater, indoor household water storage) were less likely to use repellents. There was no association for peridomiciles.

Conclusions

Repellents were not associated with ZIKV in most vulnerable pregnant women, despite all the general recommendations made during the Pernambuco epidemic. This study observed a demand for public policies focused on health, education and sanitation problems related to deprived social groups along with their co-responsibility rather than focusing on individual attitudes against mosquitoes.

Islands as Hotspots for Emerging Mosquito-Borne Viruses: A One-Health Perspective

During the past ten years, an increasing number of arbovirus outbreaks have affected tropical islands worldwide. We examined the available literature in peer-reviewed journals, from the second half of the 20th century until 2018, with the aim of gathering an overall picture of the emergence of arboviruses in these islands. In addition, we included information on environmental and social drivers specific to island setting that can facilitate the emergence of outbreaks. Within the context of the One Health approach, our review highlights how the emergence of arboviruses in tropical islands is linked to the complex interplay between their unique ecological settings and to the recent changes in local and global sociodemographic patterns. We also advocate for greater coordination between stakeholders in developing novel prevention and mitigation approaches for an intractable problem.

Spatial Clustering of Dengue Fever Incidence and Its Association with Surrounding Greenness

With more than 58,000 cases reported by the country's Centers for Disease Control, the dengue outbreaks from 2014 to 2015 seriously impacted the southern part of Taiwan. This study aims to assess the spatial autocorrelation of the dengue fever (DF) outbreak in southern Taiwan in 2014 and 2015, and to further understand the effects of green space (such as forests, farms, grass, and parks) allocation on DF. In this study, two different greenness indexes were used. The first green metric, the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), was provided by the long-term NASA MODIS satellite NDVI database, which quantifies and represents the overall vegetation greenness. The latest 2013 land use survey GIS database completed by the National Land Surveying and Mapping Center was obtained to access another green metric, green land use in Taiwan. We first used Spearman's rho to find out the relationship between DF and green space, and then three spatial autocorrelation methods, including Global Moran's I, high/low clustering, and Hot Spot were employed to assess the spatial autocorrelation of DF outbreak. In considering the impact of social and environmental factors in DF, we used generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) to further clarify the relationship between different types of green land use and dengue cases. Results of spatial autocorrelation analysis showed a high aggregation of dengue epidemic in southern Taiwan, and the metropolitan areas were the main hotspots. Results of correlation analysis and GLMM showed a positive correlation between parks and dengue fever, and the other five green space metrics and land types revealed a negative association with DF. Our findings may be an important asset for improving surveillance and control interventions for dengue.

Dengue seroprevalence and its socioeconomic determinants in Faisalabad, Pakistan: a cross-sectional study

INTRODUCTION

Socioeconomic disparities in the community make some groups more vulnerable to dengue infection.

METHODS

Fourteen dengue cases (IgM positive) served as index cases for the positive geographic cluster investigations.

RESULTS

Of 292 individuals, the overall dengue seroprevalence was 22.9% (IgM positive 4.8%; IgG positive 18.1%). The highest (45%) seroprevalence was reported in the most socioeconomically vulnerable lower class, followed by the middle class (39%). Orthogonal comparisons showed that socioeconomic factors play a significant role in the prevalence of dengue.

CONCLUSIONS

An integrated approach is required to control the menace through vector control strategies and improvement of socioeconomic conditions.

High seroprevalence of dengue virus indicates that dengue virus infections are frequent in central and eastern Sudan

OBJECTIVES

To determine the seroprevalence of dengue in central and eastern Sudan and the breadth of neutralising antibody responses.

METHODS

Blood was drawn from 483 patients with fever who visited outpatient clinics in Port Sudan, Red Sea state, in three towns in Kassala state and in El Obeid, North Kordofan, in December 2012 and January 2013. Sera were tested for dengue virus IgG and IgM by ELISA (Panbio) and sera without serologic evidence of acute infection (IgM negative) were used for the analysis of the seroprevalence. DENV neutralisation tests were performed to determine the specificity of the ELISA and to examine the degree of cross-neutralisation of multiple DENV serotypes.

RESULTS

Sixty-seven per cent (302 of 448) of the sera were dengue virus IgG-positive. The seroprevalence in Port Sudan was 89% (106 of 119 sera), in Kassala 61% (128 of 209) and in North Kordofan 56.7% (68 of 120). Thirty-one of 32 ELISA-positive sera neutralised dengue viruses indicating that the ELISA was highly specific. The majority of the sera broadly neutralised all four dengue virus serotypes indicating multiple infections.

CONCLUSIONS

The majority of the population in central and eastern Sudan has been infected with dengue viruses, many people repeatedly. The high seroprevalence underscores the need for extended dengue surveillance in Sudan, broad disease awareness in medical institutions and in the population and diagnostic capacity building for severe dengue infections.

Saberes e práticas sobre controle do Aedes aegypti por diferentes sujeitos sociais na cidade de Salvador, Bahia, Brasil

Resumo: Devido à persistência da dengue e de outras arboviroses no Brasil, o poder público tem intensificado as ações de combate ao mosquito vetor Aedes aegypti. Os agentes de combate às endemias (ACE) e agentes comunitários de saúde (ACS), dentre outras atribuições, tornaram-se interlocutores e disseminadores de conhecimento na comunidade. O objetivo deste trabalho foi analisar os saberes e práticas sobre controle da dengue por diferentes sujeitos sociais: moradores e agentes. Foram realizadas entrevistas com moradores, ACE de campo e de mobilização e ACS em dois bairros de Salvador, Bahia, por meio da metodologia de grupo focal. Os moradores demonstraram incerteza sobre a forma de contágio e o perigo da dengue. Os ACE de campo apresentam-se em conflito, pela necessidade de informar à comunidade sobre aspectos que não dominam e demonstram um descontentamento pessoal no trabalho com um sentimento de desvalorização pela falta de qualificação. Os ACE de mobilização culpam a população e enfatizam a importância de si próprios como solução para o controle da dengue. Os ACS não apropriaram sua experiência de campo em seu discurso e se sentem desobrigados com respeito ao controle vetorial. Todos os grupos entrevistados concordam que a culpa da dengue recai sobre o poder público, e a solução para o problema está na educação. Percebe-se uma grande necessidade de intervenções educativas regulares, pautadas no diálogo e na sensibilização para lidar com a realidade cotidiana dos moradores, trazendo os indivíduos (moradores e agentes) como sujeitos do processo de construção de conhecimento. Pois, na metodologia atual, a disseminação de informação e conhecimento não é suficiente para promover melhorias na comunidade para o controle da dengue.

Individual and contextual risk factors for chikungunya virus infection: the SEROCHIK cross-sectional population-based study

The purpose of the study was to weigh the community burden of chikungunya determinants on Reunion island. Risk factors were investigated within a subset of 2101 adult persons from a population-based cross-sectional serosurvey, using Poisson regression models for dichotomous outcomes. Design-based risk ratios and population attributable fractions (PAF) were generated distinguishing individual and contextual (i.e. that affect individuals collectively) determinants. The disease burden attributable to contextual determinants was twice that of individual determinants (overall PAF value 89.5% vs. 44.1%). In a model regrouping both categories of determinants, the independent risk factors were by decreasing PAF values: an interaction term between the reporting of a chikungunya history in the neighbourhood and individual house (PAF 45.9%), a maximal temperature of the month preceding the infection higher than 28.5 °C (PAF 25.7%), a socio-economically disadvantaged neighbourhood (PAF 19.0%), altitude of dwelling (PAF 13.1%), cumulated rainfalls of the month preceding the infection higher than 65 mm (PAF 12.6%), occupational inactivity (PAF 11.6%), poor knowledge on chikungunya transmission (PAF 7.3%) and obesity/overweight (PAF 5.2%). Taken together, these covariates and their underlying causative factors uncovered 80.8% of chikungunya at population level. Our findings lend support to a major role of contextual risk factors in chikungunya virus outbreaks.

How Do Virus-Mosquito Interactions Lead to Viral Emergence?

Arboviruses such as West Nile, Zika, chikungunya, dengue, and yellow fever viruses have become highly significant global pathogens through unexpected, explosive outbreaks. While the rapid progression and frequency of recent arbovirus outbreaks is associated with long-term changes in human behavior (globalization, urbanization, climate change), there are direct mosquito-virus interactions which drive shifts in host range and alter virus transmission. This review summarizes how virus-mosquito interactions are critical for these viruses to become global pathogens at molecular, physiological, evolutionary, and epidemiological scales. Integrated proactive approaches are required in order to effectively manage the emergence of mosquito-borne arboviruses, which appears likely to continue into the indefinite future.