Spatial prediction of risk areas for vector transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi in the State of Paraná, southern Brazil

From serological surveys to disease burden: a modelling pipeline for Chagas disease

In 2012, the World Health Organization (WHO) set the elimination of Chagas disease intradomiciliary vectorial transmission as a goal by 2020. After a decade, some progress has been made, but the new 2021-2030 WHO roadmap has set even more ambitious targets. Innovative and robust modelling methods are required to monitor progress towards these goals. We present a modelling pipeline using local seroprevalence data to obtain national disease burden estimates by disease stage. Firstly, local seroprevalence information is used to estimate spatio-temporal trends in the Force-of-Infection (FoI). FoI estimates are then used to predict such trends across larger and fine-scale geographical areas. Finally, predicted FoI values are used to estimate disease burden based on a disease progression model. Using Colombia as a case study, we estimated that the number of infected people would reach 506 000 (95% credible interval (CrI) = 395 000-648 000) in 2020 with a 1.0% (95%CrI = 0.8-1.3%) prevalence in the general population and 2400 (95%CrI = 1900-3400) deaths (approx. 0.5% of those infected). The interplay between a decrease in infection exposure (FoI and relative proportion of acute cases) was overcompensated by a large increase in population size and gradual population ageing, leading to an increase in the absolute number of Chagas disease cases over time. This article is part of the theme issue 'Challenges and opportunities in the fight against neglected tropical diseases: a decade from the London Declaration on NTDs'.

Space-environment relationship in the identification of potential areas of expansion of Trypanosoma cruzi infection in Didelphis aurita in the Atlantic Rainforest

Ecological Niche Modeling is widely used for animals, but rarely for understanding the parasite ecology. Trypanosoma cruzi is a heterogeneous and widely dispersed multi-host parasite. Didelphis aurita is a generalist species, both in terms of diet and environments. We modeled the D. aurita niche and T. cruzi infection in the Brazilian Atlantic Rainforest, using the models of two common vector species (Triatoma vitticeps and Panstrongylus megistus) as biotic variables, predicting their occurrence. Records of T. cruzi infected and non-infected D. aurita were analyzed through climate and landscape approaches by the Ecoland method. Models for each triatomine species and infected and noninfected D. aurita were produced considering climate and landscape: resolution of ~1km2 selected by Pearson's correlation [-0.7≤α≤0.7]. For modeling, seven algorithms available in ModleR package were used. True Skill Statistic was used to evaluate the models' performance (≥ 0.7). T. vitticeps indicates that there is a spatial dependence with warm areas in the southeastern region while P. megistus presented a distribution with high environmental suitability concentrated in the Southeast. High values of climatic suitability, landscape and potential presence of T. vitticeps and P. megistus were considered necessary, but not sufficient for the presence of D. aurita infected by T. cruzi. Climate models showed an ecological niche with suitability variations homogeneous, and landscape models showed a distribution of habitat conditions along the biome, with a fragmented profile and heterogeneous between locations. Ecoland demonstrated that D. aurita has different degrees of impact on its role in the enzootic cycle in different locations of the Atlantic Rainforest. Associating the models with the Ecoland method allowed the recognition of areas where D. aurita are important T. cruzi reservoirs. Areas of high suitability for the presence of marsupials are a necessary, but not sufficient for D. aurita to act as a reservoir for T. cruzi.

Spatial analysis of the natural infection index for Triatomines and the risk of Chagas disease transmission in Northeastern Brazil

This study aimed to analyze the spatial pattern of natural infection index (NII) for triatomines and the risk of Chagas disease transmission in an endemic area of Northeastern Brazil. An ecological study was conducted, based on 184 municipalities in five mesoregions. The NII for triatomines was evaluated in the Pernambuco State, Brazil, from 2016 to 2018. Spatial autocorrelations were evaluated using Global Moran Index (I) and Local Moran Index (II) and were considered positive when I > 0 and p < 0.05, respectively. In total, 7,302 triatomines belonging to seven different species were detected. Triatoma brasiliensis had the highest frequency (53%; n = 3,844), followed by Triatoma pseudomaculata (25%; n = 1,828) and Panstrongylus lutzi (18.5%; n=1,366). The overall NII was 12%, and the higher NII values were P. lutzi (21%) and Panstrongylus megistus (18%). In the mesoregions of Zona da Mata, Agreste, Sertao, and Sertao do Sao Francisco, 93% of triatomines were detected indoors. The global spatial autocorrelation of I to NII was positive (0.2; p = 0.01), and II values calculated using BoxMap, MoranMap, Lisa Cluster Map were statistically significant for natural infections. With regard to the risk areas for the presence of triatomines, Zone 2 (the Agreste and Sertao regions) presented a relative risk of 3.65 compared to other areas in the state. Our study shows the potential areas of vector transmission of Chagas disease. In this study, the application of different methods of spatial analysis made it possible to locate these areas, which would not have been identified by only applying epidemiological indicators.

Environmental influence on <em>Triatoma vitticeps</em> occurrence and <em>Trypanosoma cruzi</em> infection in the Atlantic Forest of south-eastern Brazil

Trypanosoma cruzi requires a triatomine insect vector for its life cycle, which can be complex in different enzootic scenarios, one of which is the unique transmission network in the Atlantic Forest of south-eastern Brazil. In Espírito Santo (ES) State, highly infected Triatoma vitticeps are frequently reported invading domiciles. However, triatomines were not found colonizing residences and mammals in the surrounding areas did not present T. cruzi infection. To date, the biotic and abiotic variables that modulate T. vitticeps occurrence and T. cruzi infection in ES State are still unknown. The aim of this study was to identify the environmental variables that modulate their occurrence. Local thematic maps were generated for two response variables: T. vitticeps occurrence and T. cruzi infection. The following explanatory variables were tested: climate (temperature, relative air humidity and rainfall), altitude elevation, mammalian species richness as well as soil and vegetation types. Spatiotemporal distribution patterns and correlation levels between response and explanatory variables were assessed through spatial statistics and map algebra modelling. The central and southern mesoregions presented higher T. vitticeps and T. cruzi distributions and can be considered transmission hotspots. The explanatory variables that can explain these phenomena were relative air humidity, average temperature, soil type, altitude elevation and mammalian species richness. Algebra map modelling demonstrated that central and southern mesoregions presented the environmental conditions needed for T. vitticeps occurrence and T. cruzi infection. The consideration of environmental variables is essential for understanding the T. cruzi transmission cycle. Cartographic and statistical methodologies used in parasitology have been demonstrated to be reliable and enlightening tools that should be incorporated routinely to expand the understanding of vector-borne parasite transmission.

Triatomine and Trypanosoma cruzi discrete typing units distribution in a semi-arid area of northeastern Brazil

The occurrence of triatomine species, their bloodmeal sources and the discrete typing units (DTUs) of Trypanosoma cruzi isolated from them were determined in different municipalities of the state of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil. Triatomine captures were carried out in the rural areas of 23 municipalities. The genotyping of T. cruzi isolates was performed using the mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase subunit 2 (coii) gene, the D7 region of the 24Sα rDNA, and the spliced leader intergenic region (SL-IR). Five triatomine species were captured, and the most frequent was Triatoma brasiliensis (84.3%; 916/1086), which was found in 16 of the 23 municipalities surveyed, and infested all types of environment investigated. The TcI DTU was found in all mesoregions surveyed in 51.5% (17/33) of the culture-positive samples. In contrast, TcII (9.1%; 3/33) was detected in the Central mesoregion, while TcIII (27.3%; 9/33) was found in all mesoregions. The geographic distribution and spatial overlap of different DTUs was inferred using the superposition of the radius of occurrence of isolates and using ecological niche distribution modelling. Triatoma brasiliensis was found infected in all mesoregions and with all three T. cruzi DTUs, including mixed infections. With regard to bloodmeal sources, the DNA of rodents was found in triatomines infected with either TcI or TcIII, while that of domestic animals and humans was associated with both single and mixed infections. Our findings demonstrate that different DTUs of T. cruzi are widely dispersed among triatomines in our study area. The association of T. brasiliensis with several different mammalian hosts, as well as overlapping areas with different DTUs, suggests that this triatomine species may have an important role as a vector in both anthropic and sylvatic environments.

External quality assessment of entomological identification of triatomines carried out in the Pernambuco Public Health Laboratory network, Brazil, 2017

OBJECTIVE

To assess the quality of triatomine identification in the laboratory network of the state of Pernambuco, Brazil.

METHODS

The participating laboratories received support material with dichotomous keys and a panel made up of seven triatomine insects known in the Pernambuco, in order to identify specimen status on receipt (intact or damaged structure), as well as species and sex.

RESULTS

Nine out of 12 laboratories took part of the study. The proportion of correct answers was 56/63 for sex identification, and 45/63, for species. The answers did not present a direct relationship with occurrence of damage to morphological structures during insect transportation. Panstrongylus megistus identification was correct for all specimens (9/9 laboratories), while correct identification of species of the Rhodnius genus was the lowest (3/9 laboratories).

CONCLUSION

Despite the good performance in entomological identification, the weaknesses observed may guide improvements in the laboratory network and will be essential for Chagas disease vector control programs.

Systematic review on the biology, ecology, genetic diversity and parasite transmission potential of Panstrongylus geniculatus (Latreille 1811) in Latin America

Panstrongylus geniculatus (Latreille, 1811) is the triatomine with the largest geographic distribution in Latin America. It has been reported in 18 countries from southern Mexico to northern Argentina, including the Caribbean islands. Although most reports indicate that P. geniculatus has wild habitats, this species has intrusive habits regarding human dwellings mainly located in intermediate deforested areas. It is attracted by artificial light from urban and rural buildings, raising the risk of transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi. Despite the wide body of published information on P. geniculatus, many knowledge gaps exist about its biology and epidemiological potential. For this reason, we analysed the literature for P. geniculatus in Scopus, PubMed, Scielo, Google Scholar and the BibTriv3.0 databases to update existing knowledge and provide better information on its geographic distribution, life cycle, genetic diversity, evidence of intrusion and domiciliation, vector-related circulating discrete taxonomic units, possible role in oral T. cruzi transmission, and the effect of climate change on its biology and epidemiology.

Geographic abundance patterns explained by niche centrality hypothesis in two Chagas disease vectors in Latin America

Ecoepidemiological scenarios for Chagas disease transmission are complex, so vector control measures to decrease human–vector contact and prevent infection transmission are difficult to implement in all geographic contexts. This study assessed the geographic abundance patterns of two vector species of Chagas disease: Triatoma maculata (Erichson, 1848) and Rhodnius pallescens (Barber, 1932) in Latin America. We modeled their potential distribution using the maximum entropy algorithm implemented in Maxent and calculated distances to their niche centroid by fitting a minimum-volume ellipsoid. In addition, to determine which method would accurately explain geographic abundance patterns, we compared the correlation between population abundance and the distance to the ecological niche centroid (DNC) and between population abundance and Maxent environmental suitability. The potential distribution estimated for T. maculata showed that environmental suitability covers a large area, from Panama to Northern Brazil. R. pallescens showed a more restricted potential distribution, with environmental suitability covering mostly the coastal zone of Costa Rica and some areas in Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize and the Yucatán Peninsula in Mexico, northern Colombia, Acre, and Rondônia states in Brazil, as well as a small region of the western Brazilian Amazon. We found a negative slope in the relationship between population abundance and the DNC in both species. R. pallecens has a more extensive potential latitudinal range than previously reported, and the distribution model for T. maculata corroborates previous studies. In addition, population abundance increases according to the niche centroid proximity, indicating that population abundance is limited by the set of scenopoetic variables at coarser scales (non-interactive variables) used to determine the ecological niche. These findings might be used by public health agencies in Latin America to implement actions and support programs for disease prevention and vector control, identifying areas in which to expand entomological surveillance and maintain chemical control, in order to decrease human–vector contact.

Clinical and epidemiological aspects of chronic Chagas disease from Southern Brazil

INTRODUCTION

Patients with Chagas disease (CD), caused by Trypanosoma cruzi, present a higher risk of developing other chronic diseases, which may contribute to CD severity. Since CD is underreported in the southern state of Paraná, Brazil, we aimed to characterize clinical and epidemiological aspects of individuals chronically infected with T. cruzi in Southern Brazil.

METHODS

A community hospital-based study was performed, recording clinical/demographic characteristics of 237 patients with CD from Southern Brazil. To estimate the association between different forms of CD and sociodemographic and clinical variables, multiple logistic regression models were built using the Akaike information criterion.

RESULTS

Mean age was 57.5 years and 59% were females. Most patients' (60%) place of origin/birth was within Paraná and they were admitted to the CD outpatient clinic after presenting with cardiac/digestive symptoms (64%). The predominant form of CD was cardiac (53%), followed by indeterminate (36%), and digestive (11%). The main electrocardiographic changes were in the right bundle branch block (39%) and left anterior fascicular block (32%). The average number of comorbidities per patient was 3.9±2.3; systemic arterial hypertension was most common (64%), followed by dyslipidemia (34%) and diabetes (19%); overlapping comorbidities were counted separately. Male sex was associated with symptomatic cardiac CD (OR=2.92; 95%CI: 1.05-8.12; p=0.040).

CONCLUSIONS

This study provided greater understanding of the distribution and clinical profile of CD patients in Southern Brazil, indicating a high prevalence of comorbidities among these patients who are a vulnerable group due to advanced age and substantial risk of morbidity.

Integrating climate and landscape models to prioritize areas and conservation strategies for an endangered arboreal primate

Species distributions are influenced by both climate conditions and landscape structure. Here we propose an integrated analysis of climatic and landscape niche-based models for a forest-dependent primate, the endangered black lion tamarin (Leontopithecus chrysopygus). We applied both climate and landscape variables to predict the distribution of this tamarin and used this information to prioritize strategic areas more accurately. We anticipated that this approach would be beneficial for the selection of pertinent conservation strategies for this flagship species. First, we built climate and landscape niche-based models separately, combining seven algorithms, to infer processes acting on the species distribution at different scales. Subsequently, we combined climate and landscape models using the EcoLand Analysis. Our results suggest that historic and current landscape fragmentation and modification had profoundly adverse effects on the distribution of the black lion tamarins. The models indicated just 2096 km² (out of an original distribution of 92,239 km² ) of suitable areas for both climate and landscape. Of this suitable area, the species is currently present in less than 40%, which represents less than 1% of its original distribution. Based on the combined map, we determined the western and southeast regions of the species range to be priority areas for its conservation. We identified areas with high climatic and high landscape suitability, which overlap with the remaining forest fragments in both regions, for habitat conservation and population management. We suggest that areas with high climatic but low landscape suitability should be prioritized for habitat management and restoration. Areas with high landscape suitability and low climatic suitability, such as the Paranapiacaba mountain range should be considered in light of projected climate change scenarios. Our case study illustrates that a combined approach of climatic and landscape niche-based modeling can be useful for establishing focused conservation measures that may increase the likelihood of success.

Temporal Variation of the Presence of Rhodnius prolixus (Hemiptera: Reduviidae) Into Rural Dwellings in the Department of Casanare, Eastern Colombia

Rhodnius prolixus (Stål, 1859) is the major vector of Trypanosoma cruzi in Colombia and Venezuela. The species is strongly associated with high-altitude ecotopes, such as sylvatic palms (Attalea butyracea), where spatially and temporally stable infestations are established. We investigated temporal variation in regards to the presence of R. prolixus in rural dwellings in the department of Casanare (eastern Colombia) over a period of 12 mo. Thirty houses were sampled from January to December 2017 by installing Maria sensors, collecting triatomines through community entomological surveillance, and conducting a monthly search in each house. The collection of specimens from the houses varied significantly by month with the higher number of collections occurring in the low-rainfall season and the lower number of collections occurring in the months of increased precipitation. The proportions of males, females, and nymphs also varied significantly throughout the time period: nymphs (fifth instar only) were reported only during May, July, and September and significantly greater numbers of females than males were reported in the inspected dwellings in all months. Density, crowding, and colonization indices varied according to the season. A bloodmeal analysis revealed 17 different hosts. A total of 42 randomly selected R. prolixus specimens were subjected to molecular analyses for detection of T. cruzi DNA with 22 found positive (infection prevalence of 52%). In conclusion, we observed a high presence of R. prolixus (infected with T. cruzi) in dwellings close to native palm plantations. These findings indicate a high risk of vector transmission of T. cruzi for people in the study areas and challenges for the current vector control schemes in the region.

Parasitological research in the molecular age

New technological methods, such as rapidly developing molecular approaches, often provide new tools for scientific advances. However, these new tools are often not utilized equally across different research areas, possibly leading to disparities in progress between these areas. Here, we use empirical evidence from the scientific literature to test for potential discrepancies in the use of genetic tools to study parasitic vs non-parasitic organisms across three distinguishable molecular periods, the allozyme, nucleotide and genomics periods. Publications on parasites constitute only a fraction (<5%) of the total research output across all molecular periods and are dominated by medically relevant parasites (especially protists), particularly during the early phase of each period. Our analysis suggests an increasing complexity of topics and research questions being addressed with the development of more sophisticated molecular tools, with the research focus between the periods shifting from predominantly species discovery to broader theory-focused questions. We conclude that both new and older molecular methods offer powerful tools for research on parasites, including their diverse roles in ecosystems and their relevance as human pathogens. While older methods, such as barcoding approaches, will continue to feature in the molecular toolbox of parasitologists for years to come, we encourage parasitologists to be more responsive to new approaches that provide the tools to address broader questions.