Heterogeneity of dengue transmission in an endemic area of Colombia

Pooled Cohort Profile: ReCoDID Consortium's Harmonized Acute Febrile Illness Arbovirus Meta-Cohort

Infectious disease (ID) cohorts are key to advancing public health surveillance, public policies, and pandemic responses. Unfortunately, ID cohorts often lack funding to store and share clinical-epidemiological (CE) data and high-dimensional laboratory (HDL) data long term, which is evident when the link between these data elements is not kept up to date. This becomes particularly apparent when smaller cohorts fail to successfully address the initial scientific objectives due to limited case numbers, which also limits the potential to pool these studies to monitor long-term cross-disease interactions within and across populations. CE data from 9 arbovirus (arthropod-borne viruses) cohorts in Latin America were retrospectively harmonized using the Maelstrom Research methodology and standardized to Clinical Data Interchange Standards Consortium (CDISC). We created a harmonized and standardized meta-cohort that contains CE and HDL data from 9 arbovirus studies from Latin America. To facilitate advancements in cross-population inference and reuse of cohort data, the Reconciliation of Cohort Data for Infectious Diseases (ReCoDID) Consortium harmonized and standardized CE and HDL from 9 arbovirus cohorts into 1 meta-cohort. Interested parties will be able to access data dictionaries that include information on variables across the data sets via Bio Studies. After consultation with each cohort, linked harmonized and curated human cohort data (CE and HDL) will be made accessible through the European Genome-phenome Archive platform to data users after their requests are evaluated by the ReCoDID Data Access Committee. This meta-cohort can facilitate various joint research projects (eg, on immunological interactions between sequential flavivirus infections and for the evaluation of potential biomarkers for severe arboviral disease).

Integration of population-level data sources into an individual-level clinical prediction model for dengue virus test positivity

The differentiation of dengue virus (DENV) infection, a major cause of acute febrile illness in tropical regions, from other etiologies, may help prioritize laboratory testing and limit the inappropriate use of antibiotics. While traditional clinical prediction models focus on individual patient-level parameters, we hypothesize that for infectious diseases, population-level data sources may improve predictive ability. To create a clinical prediction model that integrates patient-extrinsic data for identifying DENV among febrile patients presenting to a hospital in Thailand, we fit random forest classifiers combining clinical data with climate and population-level epidemiologic data. In cross-validation, compared to a parsimonious model with the top clinical predictors, a model with the addition of climate data, reconstructed susceptibility estimates, force of infection estimates, and a recent case clustering metric significantly improved model performance.

Integration of population-level data sources into an individual-level clinical prediction model for dengue virus test positivity

The differentiation of dengue virus (DENV) infection, a major cause of acute febrile illness in tropical regions, from other etiologies, may help prioritize laboratory testing and limit the inappropriate use of antibiotics. While traditional clinical prediction models focus on individual patient-level parameters, we hypothesize that for infectious diseases, population-level data sources may improve predictive ability. To create a clinical prediction model that integrates patient-extrinsic data for identifying DENV among febrile patients presenting to a hospital in Thailand, we fit random forest classifiers combining clinical data with climate and population-level epidemiologic data. In cross validation, compared to a parsimonious model with the top clinical predictors, a model with the addition of climate data, reconstructed susceptibility estimates, force of infection estimates, and a recent case clustering metric, significantly improved model performance.

"How about me giving blood for the COVID vaccine and not being able to get vaccinated?" A cognitive interview study on understanding of and agreement with broad consent for future use of data and samples in Colombia and Nicaragua

Broad consent for future use, wherein researchers ask participants for permission to share participant-level data and samples collected within the study for purposes loosely related to the study objectives, is central to enabling ethical data and sample reuse. Ensuring that participants understand broad consent-related language is key to maintaining trust in the study and public health research. We conducted 52 cognitive interviews to explore cohort research participants' and their parents' understanding of the broad consent-related language in the University of California at Berkeley template informed consent (IC) form for biomedical research. Participants and their parents were recruited from long-standing infectious disease cohort studies in Nicaragua and Colombia and interviewed during the COVID-19 pandemic. We conducted semi-structured interviews to assess participants' agreement with the key concepts in the IC after clarifying them through the cognitive interview. Participants did not understand abstract concepts, including collecting and reusing genetic data. Participants wanted to learn about incidental findings, future users and uses. Trust in the research team and the belief that sharing could lead to new vaccines or treatments were critical to participant support for data and sample sharing. Participants highlighted the importance of data and sample sharing for COVID-19 response and equitable access to vaccines and treatments developed through sharing. Our findings on participants' understanding of broad consent and preferences for data and sample sharing can help inform researchers and ethics review committees working to enable ethical and equitable data and sample sharing.

Estimating the annual dengue force of infection from the age of reporting primary infections across urban centres in endemic countries

BACKGROUND

Stratifying dengue risk within endemic countries is crucial for allocating limited control interventions. Current methods of monitoring dengue transmission intensity rely on potentially inaccurate incidence estimates. We investigated whether incidence or alternate metrics obtained from standard, or laboratory, surveillance operations represent accurate surrogate indicators of the burden of dengue and can be used to monitor the force of infection (FOI) across urban centres.

METHODS

Among those who reported and resided in 13 cities across the Philippines, we collected epidemiological data from all dengue case reports between 2014 and 2017 (N 80,043) and additional laboratory data from a cross-section of sampled case reports (N 11,906) between 2014 and 2018. At the city level, we estimated the aggregated annual FOI from age-accumulated IgG among the non-dengue reporting population using catalytic modelling. We compared city-aggregated FOI estimates to aggregated incidence and the mean age of clinically and laboratory diagnosed dengue cases using Pearson's Correlation coefficient and generated predicted FOI estimates using regression modelling.

RESULTS

We observed spatial heterogeneity in the dengue average annual FOI across sampled cities, ranging from 0.054 [0.036-0.081] to 0.249 [0.223-0.279]. Compared to FOI estimates, the mean age of primary dengue infections had the strongest association (ρ -0.848, p value<0.001) followed by the mean age of those reporting with warning signs (ρ -0.642, p value 0.018). Using regression modelling, we estimated the predicted annual dengue FOI across urban centres from the age of those reporting with primary infections and revealed prominent spatio-temporal heterogeneity in transmission intensity.

CONCLUSIONS

We show the mean age of those reporting with their first dengue infection or those reporting with warning signs of dengue represent superior indicators of the dengue FOI compared to crude incidence across urban centres. Our work provides a framework for national dengue surveillance to routinely monitor transmission and target control interventions to populations most in need.