Under-five mortality in high focus states in India: a district level geospatial analysis

Reproductive and child health transition among selected empowered action groups states of India: A district-level analysis

BACKGROUND

Health is an inseparable part of life and central to all life supporting systems. The reproductive and child health shares a major portion of public health cases that is crucial for socio-economic development. Studies on reproductive and child health have traditionally been focused on demographic aspects using socio-economic parameters. Given the emphasis of Sustainable Development Goal (SDG)-3 on health and well-being, it is imperative to understand the geo-spatial dimension with the visible transition of key health indicators of fertility, maternal and infant/child health in the high burdened districts within these high focus Empowered Action Group (EAG) states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar that make up nearly 40% of India's population with relatively laggard health status.

METHODOLOGY

This paper aims to understand the status and trend of key reproductive and child health indicators and vital statistics based on the recent representative demographic surveys. We intend to undertake a district level spatio-temporal analysis by developing District Composite Health Profile (DCHP) using Composite Index Method on selected 13 equally weighted key reproductive and child health indicators. The study has been carried out using data from National Family Health Survey-4 (2015-16) and National Family Health Survey-5 (2019-21) survey rounds. We employed geo-spatial techniques i.e. Moran's-I, and univariate LISA to comprehend the geographical clustering of high and low health burden districts and their heterogeneities at the district level.

RESULTS/CONCLUSIONS

The study highlights emerging inter-districts, and inter-state disparities over survey periods. With consistent improvement in the selected EAG states over time, the overall reproductive and child health status through DCHP along with each indicator was relatively better in the states of Rajasthan and worse in Bihar. Districts along the Terai belt in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar consistently performed sluggish during survey rounds. The geo-spatial clustering follows the political boundary of states, albeit with intra-state variations. Monitoring of key health indicators using composite index method provides a useful leverage for identifying priority districts/regions for universal health access that should also consider geographical space as an important policy dimension.

Factors Associated With Low Birth Weight Among the Tribal Population in India: A Narrative Review

Low birth weight (LBW) is defined by the WHO as a birth weighing less than 2500 g (5.5 lb). The highest burden of any nation is LBW infants. In countries where the frequency of neonate babies is high, short gestation is a major cause. LBW babies have an 11-13 times greater risk of delayed developmental milestones and other medical diagnoses. Greater than the global incidence, LBW prevalence is a severe public health problem in India. A comprehensive literature search was conducted using internet sources like PubMed, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, and Google Scholar. The words "birth weight," "abnormal birth weight," "LBWs," "neonates," "premature birth," "risks factors," "causes," "factors," "prevalence," and "frequency" were searched. In this review, we examine the causes of LBW, implementation of pre-birth prevention strategies, and post-birth multifaceted health promotion interventions. The mother's knowledge, dietary requirements, and prenatal services need to be addressed to decrease the prevalence of LBWs among tribal districts of India.

Prevalence of Undernutrition and Change Detection among under five years Children of Empowered Action Group States in India: Scrutinizing from National Family Health Survey, 2016-2021

Change detection and prevalence of child undernutrition among the Empowered Action Group (EAG) states of India were studied using National Family Health Survey-4 and 5 data. The results identified that the prevalence of undernutrition in most of the EAG states is still more than 30%. Although stunting and underweight have decreased in all EAG states, this pattern is higher than that of the national level but the prevalence of wasting has only increased in Bihar. Strengthening public health initiatives and collaborative endeavor between organizations, enhancing mother's education, increasing awareness, and raising the economic as well as sociopolitical empowerment of mothers are essential for addressing the undernutrition issue.

Inequalities in the prevalence of double burden of malnutrition among mother-child dyads in India

In the midst of rapid urbanization and economic shifts, the global landscape witnesses a surge in overweight and obese individuals, even as child malnutrition persists as a formidable public health challenge in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). This study seeks to unravel the prevalence of the double burden of malnutrition (DBM) within the context of India and delve into the associated disparities rooted in wealth. This study leverages data from the fifth wave of the National Family and Health Survey (NFHS-5), a nationally representative survey conducted in the year 2019-21 in India. This study focuses on mother-child dyads with children under the age of 3 years. Descriptive, bivariate and logistic regression analysis is used to decipher the intricate web of DBM's prevalence and risk factors, as underscored by socio-demographic attributes. Wagstaff decomposition analysis is applied to quantify the contribution of each inequality in the social determinants on the observed income-related inequality in the DBM. Result from bivariate and logistic regression indicated a heightened risk of DBM within households marked by C-section births, affluence, ongoing breastfeeding practices, advanced maternal age, and larger household sizes. Additionally, households harbouring women with abdominal obesity emerge as hotspots for elevated DBM risk. Notably, the interplay of abdominal obesity and geographical disparities looms large as drivers of substantial inequality in DBM prevalence, whereas other factors exert a comparably milder influence. As India grapples with the burgeoning burden of DBM, a conspicuous imbalance in its prevalence pervades, albeit inadequately addressed. This juncture warrants the formulation of dual-purpose strategies, and a slew of innovative actions to deftly navigate the complex challenges poised by the dual burden of malnutrition. Amidst these exigencies, the imperative to forge a holistic approach that encompasses both sides of the malnutrition spectrum remains a beacon guiding the quest for equitable health and nutrition outcomes.

Assessment of utilisation of government programmes and services by pregnant women in India

BACKGROUND

Since the implementation of various maternal health programs, Maternal Mortality Ratio (MMR) has significantly declined in India through improvements in maternal health services. However, inequality persists at the regional and socio-economic levels. In light of this, the present study aims to assess the existing regional disparities in utilising various government initiatives for safe motherhood in India.

METHODS

National-level datasets such as National Family and Health Surveys (NFHS-3 (2005-06); NFHS-4 (2015-16) and NFHS-5(2019-21); Health Management Information System (HMIS), 2019-20; Sample Registrar System (SRS), 2001-2018) were used in the study. In addition, composite Index and inequality measures (Range, Ratio, and Gini) were calculated to examine inequality. At the same time, the Pearson correlation was used to investigate the correlation between various components of maternal health services and Maternal Mortality Rate (MMR).

RESULTS

The composite index score (0.65) reflects that India is still far behind the targets of the utilisation of maternal health care services. Within the utilisation of services, the Gini coefficient reveals that the least inequality was recorded in skilled birth assistance deliveries (0.03) and institutional deliveries (0.04). In contrast, the highest inequality was recorded in receiving Iron and Folic Acid (IFA) Tablets for 100 days (0.19) and four Antenatal Care (ANC) visits (0.13) among selected states. Based on the composite score for maternal health utilisation, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, and Delhi were amongst the best performers, whereas Bihar, Jharkhand, Uttar Pradesh, and Assam were amongst the worst performers.

CONCLUSION

This indicates that the government's single-minded focus on enhancing institutional deliveries and skilled health-assisted deliveries has detracted from other essential interventions related to maternal health. Therefore, the states with the utilisation of maternal services need to initiate immediate action to increase the ANC and Post-natal Care (PNC utilisation with more attention towards better implementation of existing ANC programmes by the government.

Reducing infant and child mortality: assessing the social inclusiveness of child health care policies and programmes in three states of India

BACKGROUND

Even though the overall infant mortality rate and child mortality rate have considerably declined in India, the marginalised groups-Scheduled Caste, and Scheduled Tribe, continue to have higher mortality rates. This study looks at the changes in IMR and CMR amongst disadvantaged and advanced social groups at the national level and in three states of India.

DATA AND METHODS

Data from five rounds of National Family Health Survey spanning nearly three decades have been used to measure IMR and CMR according to the social groups for India and for selected states-Bihar, West Bengal, and Tamil Nadu. The relative hazard curves were drawn to understand which social group's children face a higher risk of dying in the first year of birth and between first year and age four in those three states. Further, a log-rank test was applied to examine whether the differences between the survival curves or distributions of the three social groups are statistically significant. Finally, the binary logit regression model was applied to investigate the effect of ethnicity, and other socio-economic and demographic covariates on the risk of infant and child deaths (1-4 years) in the country and in selected states.

RESULTS

Hazard curve shows the probability of death within one year of birth was highest among the children belonging to the ST families, followed by SCs in India. And, the CMR was found to be higher amongst the STs compared to all other social groups as well at the national level. While Bihar had a remarkably high infant and child mortality rates, Tamil Nadu possessed the lowest child death rates irrespective of class, caste, and religion. The regression model revealed that most of the caste/tribe gaps in infant and child deaths might be attributed to the place of residence, mother's level of education, economic status, and the number of children in a family. Notably, the multivariate analysis showed that ethnicity was an independent risk factor, when controlled for socioeconomic status.

CONCLUSION

The study detects the persistence of significant caste/tribe differentials in infant and child mortality in India. Poverty, education and health care access issues could be the possible reasons for the premature deaths of the children from deprived castes and tribes. There is a need to critically analyse the current health programmes aimed at reducing IMR and CMR to make them attuned to the needs of the marginalised communities.

[Social inequalities in under-five mortality: a systematic review]

OBJECTIVE

To identify the characteristics of the published studies on social inequalities in under-five mortality, their theoretical perspectives, axes of inequality, methods and results.

METHOD

We carried out a systematic literature review. We consulted four electronic databases and Google Scholar, for studies published between 2010 and 2018.

RESULTS

We analyzed 126 articles. In 62.7%, territory was studied as the axis of inequality, followed by socioeconomic determinants (27.8%). Neonatal, infant and under-five mortality was analyzed as an output in health in 19.0%, 49.2% and 32.3%, respectively. It predominated ecological (62.7%) and longitudinal (50.0%) studies. Significant reductions in mortality rates were found, however, the decline was not homogeneous among subpopulations.

CONCLUSIONS

The literature reports a marked decrease in under-five mortality; however, the gaps between different axes of inequality continue and in some cases they have increased. Gaps varied according to time, place, axis of inequality and type of mortality analyzed.

Spatiotemporal distributions of under-five mortality in Ethiopia between 2000 and 2019

Under-five mortality declined in the last two decades in Ethiopia, but sub-national and local progress remains unclear. This study aimed to investigate the spatiotemporal distributions and ecological level factors of under-five mortality in Ethiopia. Data on under-five mortality were obtained from five different Ethiopian Demographic and Health Surveys (EDHS), conducted in 2000, 2005, 2011, 2016, and 2019. Environmental and healthcare access data were obtained from different publicly available sources. Bayesian geostatistical models were used to predict and visualize spatial risks for under-five mortality. The national under-five mortality rate in Ethiopia declined from 121 per 1000 live births in 2000 to 59 per 1000 live births in 2019. Spatial variation in under-five mortality was observed at regional and local levels with the highest rates reported in the Western, Eastern, and Central parts of Ethiopia. Spatial clustering of under-five mortality was significantly associated with population density, access to a water body, and climatic factors such as temperature. Under-five mortality rate declined over the past two decades and varied substantially at sub-national and local levels in Ethiopia. Increasing access to water and health care may help to reduce under-five mortality in high-risk areas. Therefore, interventions targeted to reduce under-five mortality should be strengthened in the areas that had a clustering of under-five mortality in Ethiopia by increasing access to quality health care access.

Exploration of spatial clustering in maternal health continuum of care across districts of India: A geospatial analysis of demographic and health survey data

INTRODUCTION

The continuum of care (CoC) throughout pregnancy, delivery and post-delivery has recently been highlighted as an integrated intervention programme for maternal, new-born, and child health. Existing literature suggests the importance of continuum of care (CoC) for improved maternal and child health outcomes. However due to unavailability of data at the lowest administrative levels, literature on spatial pattern of uptake of full CoC is lacking. The present study attempts to focus on the spatial analysis of CoC in maternal health care in India.

DATA AND METHODS

The study is based on the fourth round of National Family Health Survey data conducted in 2015-16 in India. The outcome variable used is maternal health continuum of care which includes- at least 4 ANC visits, delivery through skilled birth attendant and postnatal check-up within 48 hours of delivery. Univariate and bivariate Local Indicator of Spatial Association (LISA) maps have been generated to show the spatial pattern of CoC across 640 districts in India. We also employed spatial regression techniques to explore the determinants of CoC.

FINDINGS

Percentage of women who followed full CoC was observed to be least for East Kameng (0.0%) district of Arunachal Pradesh and highest in North Goa district (90.4%). Majority of districts where uptake of full CoC was more than 80 percent were found concentrated in southern region on India. Equivalently, findings indicated a strong spatial clustering of full CoC with high-high clusters mostly concentrated in southern districts. Low-low district clusters are concentrated in the states of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Madhya Pradesh. For complete CoC the global Moran's I is 0.73 indicating the spatial dependence. The spatial regression analysis suggested that modern contraceptive use, meeting with health worker, urbanization and secondary or above education for women have positive impact on the utilisation of CoC.

CONCLUSION

The spatial pattern indicates district level clustering in uptake of CoC among women. The study suggests policymakers and stakeholders to implement comprehensive interventions at sub-regional levels for ensuring the completion of CoC for women which acts as a preventive measure for adverse outcomes such as-maternal and child mortality.

An update on explaining the rural-urban gap in under-five mortality in India

Background

Rural Indians have higher mortality rates than urban Indians. However, the rural-urban gap in under-five mortality has changed is less researched. This paper aims to assess 1) whether the rural-urban gap in under-five mortality has reduced over time 2) Whether rural children are still experiencing a higher likelihood of death after eliminating the role of other socioeconomic factors 3) What factors are responsible for India’s rural-urban gap in under-five mortality.

Methods

We used all rounds for National Family Health Survey data for understanding the trend of rural-urban gap in under-five mortality. Using NFHS-2019-21 data, we carried out a binary logistic regression analysis to examine the factors associated with under-five mortality. Fairlie’s decomposition technique was applied to understand the relative contribution of different covariates to the rural–urban gap in under-five mortality.

Results

India has witnessed a more than 50% reduction in under-five mortality rate between 1992 and 93 and 2019–21. From 1992 to 93 to 2019–21, the annual decrease in rural and urban under-five mortality is 1.6% and 2.7%, respectively. Yet, rural population still contributes a higher proportion of the under-five deaths. The rural-urban gap in under-five mortality has reduced from 44 per thousand live births in 1992–1993 to 30 per thousand in 2004–2005 which further decreased to 14 per thousand in 2019–2021. There is no disadvantage for the rural children due to their place of residence if they belong to economically well-off household or their mothers are educated. It is wealth index rather than place of residence which determines the under-five mortality. Economic (50.82% contribution) and educational differential (28.57% contribution) are the main reasons for rural-urban under-five mortality gaps.

Conclusion

The existing rural-urban gap in under-five mortality suggests that the social and health policies need to be need to reach rural children from poor families and uneducated mothers. This call for attention to ensure that the future programme must emphasize mothers from economically and educationally disadvantaged sections. While there should be more emphasis on equal access to health care facilities by the rural population, there should also be an effort to strengthen the rural economy and quality of education.

Effectiveness of prophylactic iron supplementation in the reduction of recurrence of febrile seizures in children: A prospective study with comparison with historical controls

Objectives

The primary objective of the study was to compare the number of patients with febrile seizure recurrence within 1 year of presenting to our institute, among patients who received and didn't receive oral iron supplementation.

Materials and Methods

This prospective intervention study with historical controls was conducted to compare the number of patients with febrile seizure recurrence within 1 year, among patients who received and did not receive oral iron supplementation. The intervention group additionally received prophylactic iron supplementation of 20 mg biweekly for 1 year.

Results

A total of 53 patients each were enrolled in both the groups, with comparable baseline characteristics. Although there was a trend toward a lower rate of recurrence of febrile seizures in the interventional group, as compared to the control group, it did not reach the point of statistical significance (P = 0.35). Both in the worst-case scenario and best-case scenario, there was a trend toward less risk of recurrence of febrile seizure in the intervention group, but it did not reach the point of statistical significance (P = 0.43 and 0.52). For the original scenario, worst-case scenario, and best-case scenario, the absolute risk reduction was 6.5%, 7%, and 6%, respectively, with corresponding number needed to treat (NNT) being 15, 14, and 16, respectively. The trend for absolute risk reduction was more pronounced in those with complex febrile seizures with an NNT of 6.5, but it still did not reach the point of statistical significance (P = 0.16). Moderate/severe IDA was also found to be an independent risk factor for recurrence of febrile seizure in the intervention group (P = 0.03).

Conclusion

Oral serum iron supplementation does not significantly reduce the recurrence rate of febrile seizures in children aged 6-60 months. However, there is a trend toward reduction in the frequency of recurrence of febrile seizures, which is more pronounced in the subset with complex febrile seizures.

Investigating Spatial Patterns of Pulmonary Tuberculosis and Main Related Factors in Bandar Lampung, Indonesia Using Geographically Weighted Poisson Regression

Tuberculosis (TB) is a highly infectious disease, representing one of the major causes of death worldwide. Sustainable Development Goal 3.3 implies a serious decrease in the incidence of TB cases. Hence, this study applied a spatial analysis approach to investigate patterns of pulmonary TB cases and its drivers in Bandar Lampung (Indonesia). Our study examined seven variables: the growth rate of pulmonary TB, population, distance to the city center, industrial area, green open space, built area, and slum area using geographically weighted Poisson regression (GWPR). The GWPR model demonstrated excellent results with an R2 and adjusted R2 of 0.96 and 0.94, respectively. In this case, the growth rate of pulmonary TB and population were statistically significant variables. Spatial pattern analysis of sub-districts revealed that those of Panjang and Kedaton were driven by high pulmonary TB growth rate and population, whereas that of Sukabumi was driven by the accumulation of high levels of industrial area, built area, and slums. For these reasons, we suggest that local policymakers implement a variety of infectious disease prevention and control strategies based on the spatial variation of pulmonary TB rate and its influencing factors in each sub-district.

Understanding Differences in Behaviour Patterns of Healthcare Service Elements Among Regions Applying Data Mining

Maternal and child healthcare (MCH) has always been regarded as one of the important issues globally. The aim of this article is to find out all frequently occurring healthcare service elements along with their availability conditions and their interactions with other health system (HS) elements, when coverage of priority MCH intervention was either poor or moderate or good in any region. Association rule mining technique has been used to understand the probability of occurrences of different healthcare service elements among regions. Along with the proposed analytical framework, an interactive decision support system (DSS) has also been developed on a web platform, which would help healthcare policymakers to integrate the analytical framework easily in their processes of decision-making. The system has been developed by using Shiny package on R software. Data for all variables are collected for 584 Indian districts from the third phase of district-level household and facility survey. From results, it is observed that community healthcare services, sub-centre (SC)-level healthcare services and PHC-level healthcare services of a region are very much interlinked with each other, and their relationships define the healthcare condition of that region.

The effects of community clustering on under-five mortality in India: a parametric shared frailty modelling approach

The study of the effect of community clustering of under-five mortality has its implications in both research and policy. Studies have shown the contribution of community factors on under-five mortality. However, these studies did not account for censoring. We examine the presence of community dependencies and determine the risk factors of under-five mortality in India and its six state-regions by employing a Weibull hazard model with gamma shared frailty. We considered every possible way to ensure that the frailty models used in the study are not merely a consequence of how the data are organized rather than representing a substantive assumption about the source of the frailty. Data from the fourth round of the National Family Health Survey has been used. The study found that except for south India, children born in the same community in India and the other five state-regions shared similar characteristics of under-five mortality. The risk of under-five mortality decreased with an increase in mother’s schooling. Except for northern region, female births were less likely to die within first five years of life. We found a U-shaped relationship between preceding birth interval and under-five mortality. History of sibling’s death, multiple births and low-birthweight significantly increases the risk of under-five mortality in all the six state-regions. The Hindu–Muslim mortality gaps and Scheduled Caste or Tribe’s mortality disadvantage is diminishing. Since the factors associated with under-five mortality were not necessarily the same across the six state-regions of India, adopting a uniform approach in dealing with under-five mortality in India may not benefit all the regions equally.

Maternal iron-and-folic-acid supplementation and its association with low-birth weight and neonatal mortality in India

OBJECTIVE

The current study assessed intake of iron-and-folic-acid (IFA) tablet/syrup (grouped into none, < 100 d of IFA consumption or < 100 IFA and ≥ 100 d of IFA consumption or ≥ 100 IFA) among prospective mothers and its association with various stages of low-birth weight (ELBW, extremely low-birth weight; VLBW, very low-birth weight and LBW, low-birth weight) and neonatal mortality (death during day 0-1, 2-6, 7-27 and 0-27) in India.

DESIGN

The cross-sectional, nationally representative, 2015-2016 National Family Health Survey (NFHS-4) data were used. Weighted descriptive analysis and multiple binary logistic regression modelling were used.

SETTING

NFHS-4 covered 640 districts from thirty-seven states and union territories of India.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 120 374 and 143 675 index children aged 0-59 months were included to analyse LBW and neonatal mortality, respectively.

RESULTS

Overall, 30·7 % mothers consumed ≥ 100 IFA in 2015-2016, and this estimate ranged from 0·0 % in Zunheboto district of Nagaland state to 89·5 % in Mahe district of Puducherry of India. Multiple regression analysis revealed that children of mothers who consumed ≥ 100 IFA had lower odds of ELBW, VLBW, LBW and neonatal mortality during day 0-1, as compared with mothers who did not buy/receive any IFA. Consumption of IFA (< 100 IFA and ≥ 100 IFA) had a protective association with neonatal death during day 7-27 and 0-27. Consumption of IFA was not associated with neonatal death during day 2-6.

CONCLUSIONS

While ≥ 100 IFA consumption during pregnancy was found to be associated with preventing select types of LBW and neonatal mortality, a large variation in coverage of ≥ 100 IFA consumption across 640 districts is concerning.

Are the Poor Catching Up with the Rich in Utilising Reproductive, Maternal, New Born and Child Health Services: An Application of Delivery Channels Framework in Indian Context

The article is aimed to assess trends in wealth-related inequalities in coverage of reproductive, maternal, neonatal and child health (RMNCH) interventions using delivery channels framework in Indian context, at national level as well as at state level—Tamil Nadu (TN) and Chhattisgarh (CG)—a better off and poorer state, respectively. We used National Family Health Survey—3rd (2005–2006) and 4th (2015–2016) to study the trends and differentials of inequalities in the RMNCH coverage. We have used two summary indices—absolute inequalities using the slope index of inequality (SII) and relative inequalities using the concentration index (CIX). Culturally driven interventions had pro-poor inequalities in TN, CG and in India, but the coverage has improved significantly for the women from wealthier households recently. Environmental interventions were highly inequal in distribution, particularly for the ‘use of clean fuels’. Inequalities in the coverage of health facilities-based interventions has reduced in TN, CG and overall India, but more so in TN. The inequalities in coverage of community-based interventions have reduced over the period of ten years in TN, CG as well as at national level. Adopting RMNCH delivery channel framework could be useful for assessing and monitoring the progress of public health programmes. Policy makers can gain insights from the success of coverage of various interventions and determine specific implementation strategies to reduce inequalities in the coverage and its effectiveness.

Factors associated with minimum dietary diversity failure among Indian children

Recognising the importance of infant and young child feeding practices during the first 2 years of life, the World Health Organization's Global Nutrition Monitoring Framework developed a minimum dietary diversity (MDD) indicator for feeding children aged 6–23 months. MDD is defined as the consumption of food items from five or more groups out of a total of eight food groups. Food intake from less than five food groups is considered minimum dietary diversity failure (MDDF). Using the nationally representative National Family Health Survey (NFHS) dataset, the present study assessed the trend in MDDF between 2005–6 and 2015–16 and the factors associated with MDDF among children aged 6–23 months during 2015–16. The NFHS conducted in 2005–6 and 2015–16 covered a sample of 14 419 and 74 078 children aged 6–23 months, respectively. Overall, the MDDF reduced from 87⋅4  % (95  % confidence interval (95  % CI) 86⋅8  %, 87⋅9  %) in 2005–6 to 80⋅6  % (95  % CI 80⋅1  %, 81⋅0  %) in 2015–16. Multivariable logistic regression analysis revealed that increased child's age, second and third birth order children, higher maternal age and education, mass media exposure of mothers and more than four antenatal care visits had a negative association with the MDDF. Children living in rural areas and residing in high-focus states of India were observed with higher odds of experiencing MDDF. Exposure to community healthcare services was negatively associated with MDDF, and anaemic children were more likely to have MDDF. Socioeconomic status of mothers and children and encouragement of maternal and child healthcare use could be helpful in devising context-specific intervention to mitigate MDDF.

Areca nut consumption with and without tobacco among the adult population: a nationally representative study from India

OBJECTIVE

Areca nut is one of the most widely consumed substances globally, after nicotine, ethanol and caffeine and classified as carcinogenic to humans. This study examines the disparity and determinants of areca nut consumption with and without tobacco in India.

DESIGN

Nationally representative cross-sectional study.

PARTICIPANTS

We used the nationally representative Global Adult Tobacco Survey 2016-2017. The analytical sample size was 74 037 individual's aged 15 years and above with a response rate of 92.9%.

MEASURES

Current consumption of areca nut without tobacco and with tobacco.

METHOD

We examined determinants of areca nut consumption (without tobacco and with tobacco) using multinomial logistic regression, accounting for the survey design.

RESULTS

About 23.9% (95% CI 23.1 to 24.8) of the adult population consume areca nut, that is, approximately 223.79 million people in India; majority of users (14.2%-95% CI 13.5 to 14.9) consumed areca nut with tobacco. When compared with women, men were more likely to consume areca nut (with tobacco relative risk (RR)=2.02; 95% CI 1.85 to 2.21 and without tobacco RR=1.13; 95% CI 1.07 to 1.20). Age, marital status, education, occupation, caste, religion and region were significantly associated with areca nut consumption. However, the direction and magnitude of association differ with respect to the areca nut consumption with and without tobacco.

CONCLUSION

The ongoing tobacco control efforts would not address the majority of areca nut users until greater attention to areca nut consumption with and without tobacco is reflected in health policies in India.

Tipping the scale: the role of a national nutritional supplementation programme for pregnant mothers in reducing low birth weight and neonatal mortality in India

With over 1·3 million Anganwadi centres (AWC) (meaning ‘courtyard shelter’), the Indian government runs a nationwide intervention providing nutrition supplement to pregnant mothers to improve the health of their children. Using two successive rounds of the nationally representative cross-sectional National Family Health Survey data (collected during 2005–2006 and 2015–2016) of India, we assessed whether nutrition supplements given to pregnant mothers through AWC were associated with select child health indicators – extremely low birth weight (ELBW), very low birth weight (VLBW), low birth weight (LBW) and neonatal mortality (death during day 0–27) stratified by death during day 0–1, day 2–6 and day 7–27. A total of 148 019 children and 205 593 children were eligible for analysing birth weight and neonatal mortality, respectively. OR with 95% CI, estimated from multivariate logistic regression models, suggest that receipt of nutrition supplements was associated with decreased risk of VLBW (OR: 0·73, 95% CI 0·63, 0·83, P < 0·001), LBW (OR: 0·92, 95% CI 0·88, 0·96, P < 0·001), but not ELBW (OR: 0·80, 95% CI 0·56, 1·15, P = 0·226). Women who always received nutrition supplements during their pregnancy saw lower risk of death of their neonates (OR: 0·67, 95% CI 0·61, 0·73, P < 0·001), including death on day 0–1 (OR: 0·66, 95% CI 0·58, 0·74, P < 0·001), day 2–6 (OR: 0·69, 95% CI 0·58, 0·82, P < 0·001) and day 7–27 (OR: 0·68, 95% CI 0·53, 0·87, P = 0·002). Therefore, nutritional supplementation to pregnant mothers appears to be helpful in deterring various stages of neonatal mortality, VLBW and LBW, though it might not be effective in mitigating ELBW. Findings were discussed considering possible limitations of the study.

Receipt of Weekly Iron Supplementation among Indian Children, 2005-2016

BACKGROUND

In response to India's unacceptably high burden of anemia among children aged 6-59 mo, the central government introduced the National Iron Plus Initiative program which recommends an intervention of iron supplementation to mitigate anemia, especially iron deficiency anemia.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study was to examine the trend (between 2005-2006 and 2015-2016) in receiving weekly iron supplementation (WIS) among children aged 6-59 mo, and factors associated with receiving WIS during 2015-2016.

METHODS

Two waves of the nationally representative cross-sectional National Family Health Survey (NFHS) data collected during 2005-2006 (NFHS-3) and 2015-2016 (NFHS-4) were used. The trend was measured using both rounds of datasets, whereas factors associated with WIS receipt were assessed from NFHS-4. The trend was assessed using a sample of 35,650 children from NFHS-3 and 202,227 children from NFHS-4. After exclusion of 8978 cases, a total of 199,110 children were included to analyze the factors associated with receiving WIS. Using appropriate sample weighting, unadjusted and adjusted (multivariate) logistic regression analyses were deployed. Application of the chi-squared test and checking for multicollinearity were also part of the analysis. The possibility of sample selection bias was tested.

RESULTS

An increase of WIS receipt (from 4.6% in 2005-2006 to 26% in 2015-2016) was observed. Older children, children living in rural areas, children belonging to Scheduled Tribes, children of mothers with secondary education or higher, and children whose mothers had some mass media exposure had higher odds of receiving WIS. Children of fifth or higher birth order, children who were followers of Islam and Christianity, children from the richest economic group, noninstitutional birth of children, and children from high-focus group states were negatively associated with WIS receipt.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite improvement (between 2005-2006 and 2015-2016) in receiving WIS, coverage remains unacceptably low (in absolute terms). The suboptimum performance of WIS intervention demands further investigation.

Vaccination Inequality in India, 2002-2013

INTRODUCTION

India's childhood vaccination coverage has increased amid the implementation of national health policies intended to improve immunization levels. However, there is a dearth of contemporary studies comparing state-level childhood vaccination rates across India's highly diverse states and territories. This study assesses SES-based inequalities in childhood vaccination by state for 2002-2013.

METHODS

National surveys from 2002 to 2004, 2007 to 2008, and 2012 to 2013 were used for analyses. Household SES was assessed using an asset index created through principal component analysis. Full vaccination comprised 1 dose bacille Calmette-Guerin, 3 doses diphtheria-pertussis-tetanus vaccine, 3 doses oral polio vaccine, and 1 dose measles-containing vaccine at age 12-60 months. Inequality analyses were stratified by 3 time periods and by government-designated high focus group versus non-high focus group states.

RESULTS

Childhood vaccination steadily increased between 2002 and 2013 in high focus group states but fell in some non-high focus group states, whereas SES-based vaccination inequalities generally decreased in both. In 2012-2013, rural areas had lower vaccination rates than urban areas in high focus group states but similar vaccination rates as urban areas in non-high focus group states. Increases in vaccination rates were not consistently accompanied by improvements in SES-based inequalities in vaccination.

CONCLUSIONS

Childhood vaccination in India has improved overall, although increases are more pronounced in high focus group states than in non-high focus group states over the study period. The gap in coverage between these states decreased over time owing in part to the latter experiencing reductions in full vaccination rates during 2007-2013. SES-based vaccination disparities persist in India, highlighting the need to improve vaccination rates for all children, especially those from disadvantaged and underserved groups.

SUPPLEMENT INFORMATION

This article is part of a supplement entitled Global Vaccination Equity, which is sponsored by the Global Institute for Vaccine Equity at the University of Michigan School of Public Health.

A hybrid deep learning model for predicting and targeting the less immunized area to improve childrens vaccination rate

There has been a major and rising interest in India for increasing vaccination rate among peoples to make the nation healthier and safer. In this paper, a new hybrid deep learning model is proposed to predict and target vaccination rates in the less immunized regions. The Rank-Based Multi-Layer Perceptron (R-MLP) hybrid deep learning framework uses the data collected from the recently updated District Level Household Survey-4 (DLHS). R-MLP model predicts and categorizes the percentage of partly immunized vaccination rates as extreme, low and medium ranges. This predicted findings are cross-verified by Deep Soft Cosine Semantic and Ranking SVM based model (DSS-RSM). DSS-RSM model uses the data obtained from the medical practitioners through a location-based social network. The proposed model predicts and extracts patterns with high similarity frequency for identifying vulnerable low immunization regions. It classifies the predicted patterns into two classes such as Class 1 is denoted as high ranked regions and Class 2 is denoted as low ranked regions based on the percentage of pattern matches. Finally, the results from R-MLP and DSS-RSM models are cross-linked together using ensemble model. This model finds the loss values to identify the target regions were health care program need to be conducted for increasing the level of immunization among children’s. The proposed hybrid deep learning models trains and validates using python-based Keras and TensorFlow deep learning libraries. The performance of the proposed hybrid deep learning model is compared with other variant machine learning techniques such as Decision Tree C5.0, Naive Bayes and Linear Regression. This comparative results are evaluated using evaluation measures such as Precision, Recall, Accuracy and F1-Measure. Our results show that the hybrid deep learning system is clearly superior to any other alternative approach.

Health Inequalities in Under-Five Mortality: An Assessment of Empowered Action Group (EAG) States of India

Background: The effect of childhood well-being programs is commonly interconnected with a change in mortality trends. The proportion of disparity shows that inequality in child mortality is more collective in the similarly evolved states than the poorer states in India. Objective: To estimate and compare the health inequality of under-five mortality in Empowered Action groups (EAG) states of India. Methods: Data from the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-4) was used only for the EAG States of India. Under-five mortality rates (U5MR) were calculated for associated background characteristics by using the life table method. Wealth inequality was assessed separately for all EAG states by calculating measures of concentration index (CI). Concentration curves (CC) were also plotted to see the difference in inequality. Results: Higher U5MR was observed in all EAG states compared with estimates for overall India. On comparing estimates of inequality, CI values show the substantial burden of U5MR among EAG states of India. The CC shows the lowest inequality in EAG states of India. Conclusion: The results suggested the need to receive various health strategy intercessions in agreement with the instance of ever-changing commitments of economic components to child health disparities in EAG states. Measuring the impact of determinants to wealth-related inequality in U5MR helps in lining up the interventions targeted at improving child survival.

Precision-weighted estimates of neonatal, post-neonatal and child mortality for 640 districts in India, National Family Health Survey 2016

BACKGROUND

The conventional indicators of infant and under-five mortality are aggregate deaths occurring in the first year and the first five years, respectively. Monitoring deaths by <1 month (neonatal), 1-11 months (post-neonatal), and 12-59 months (child) can be more informative given various etiological causes that may require different interventions across these three mutually exclusive periods. For optimal resource allocation, it is also necessary to track progress in robust estimates of child survival at a smaller geographic and administrative level.

METHODS

Data on 259 627 children came from the 2015-2016 Indian National Family Health Survey. We used a random effects model to account for the complex survey design and sampling variability, and predicted district-specific probabilities of neonatal, post-neonatal, and child mortality. The resulting precision-weighted estimates are more reliable as they pool information and borrow strength from other districts that share the same state membership. The Pearson correlation and Spearman's rank correlation were assessed for the three mortality estimates, and the Moran's I measure was used to detect spatial clustering of high burden districts for each outcome.

RESULTS

The majority of under-five deaths was disproportionately concentrated in the neonatal period. Across all districts, the predicted probability of neonatal, post-neonatal, and child mortality varied from 6.0 to 63.9 deaths, 3.8 to 47.6 deaths, and 1.7 to 11.8 deaths per 1000 live births, respectively. The overall correlation between district-wide probabilities of mortality for the three mutually exclusive periods was moderate (Pearson correlation = 0.47-0.58, Spearman's rank correlation = 0.58-0.64). For each outcome, a relatively strong spatial clustering was detected across districts that transcended state boundaries (Moran's I = 0.61-0.76).

CONCLUSIONS

Sufficiently breaking down the under-five mortality to distinct age groups and using the precision-weighted estimations to monitor performances at smaller geographic and administrative units can inform more targeted interventions and foster accountability to improve child survival.

Factors explaining regional variation in under-five mortality in India: An evidence from NFHS-4

Although child mortality has declined in India, pronounced regional and socioeconomic inequality exists. The study examines the effects of individual- and community-level characteristics on under-five mortality and investigates the extent to which they affect regional variation. The study is based on Indian National Family and Health Survey 4, 2015-16 data. A two-level logistic regression model was performed to examine the effects of the socio-economic characteristics, and multivariate decomposition analysis was done to assess the contribution of factors in the inter-regional under-five mortality differentials. Regional variation in the selected variables is observed. For instance, the percentage of children with small childbirth size varied from 9.7% in the southern to 21.6% in the northeastern region. The percentage of poor households, low educated mothers, and childbirths delivered at home facility were higher in the central and eastern region compared to the southern region. The multilevel analysis shows that the region of residence explained 15.8% variance, and community-level characteristics alone could explain 25.3% variation in the risk of under-five deaths. The decomposition analysis indicates that the average number of excess deaths in the central and eastern regions is higher compared to the other regions. The compositional differences account for 50.9% of the under-five mortality gaps between the south and north region, 80.9% of the gap between the south and east, and 42.9% of the gap between the south and central region of India. Special attention and targeted action are needed to address the underlying causes of low birth weight of children in all the regions of India. Region-specific interventions might be priorities; for example, north, and central regions, need an economic and educational uplift, while infrastructural and economic policies should be prioritized for the northeastern region. Also, region-specific community-level interventions are needed to improve child survival in India.

Proximal and contextual correlates of childhood stunting in India: A geo-spatial analysis

BACKGROUND

Globally, India is home to every third child affected by stunting. While numerous studies have examined the correlates of childhood stunting (CS) in India, most of these studies have focused on examining the role of proximal factors, and the role of contextual factors is much less studied. This study presents a comprehensive picture of both proximal and contextual determinants of CS in India, expanding the current evidence base. The present study is guided by the WHO conceptual framework, which outlines the context, causes, and consequences of CS.

DATA AND METHODS

The study used exploratory spatial data analysis tools to analyse the spatial pattern and correlates of CS, using data from the fourth round (2015-16) of the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-4) and the 2011 Census of India.

RESULTS

The study findings reiterate that CS continues to be high in India, with several hot spot states and districts, and that children from the central and eastern region of the nation, namely, Bihar, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, and Uttar Pradesh are particularly vulnerable. Our analysis has identified six risk factors-maternal short stature, large household size, closely spaced births, prevalence of hypertension among women, household poverty, open defecation, and extreme temperature-and four protective factors-female education, access to improved drinking water, dietary diversity among children, and iron and folic acid (IFA) supplementation during pregnancy.

CONCLUSIONS

The study highlights the need for investing in pre-conception care, addressing both demand- and supply-side barriers to increase the coverage of nutrition-specific interventions, implementing programmes to promote the intake of healthy foods from an early age, providing contraceptive counselling and services to unmarried and married adolescents and young women and men, and universalizing quality primary and secondary education that is inclusive and equitable to avert the burden of childhood stunting in India.

New framework of Getis-Ord's indexes associating spatial autocorrelation with interaction

Spatial autocorrelation and spatial interaction are two important analytical processes for geographical analyses. However, the internal relations between the two types of models have not been brought to light. This paper is devoted to integrating spatial autocorrelation analysis and spatial interaction analysis into a logic framework by means of Getis-Ord’s indexes. Based on mathematical derivation and transform, the spatial autocorrelation measurements of Getis-Ord’s indexes are reconstructed in a new and simple form. A finding is that the local Getis-Ord’s indexes of spatial autocorrelation are equivalent to the rescaled potential energy indexes of spatial interaction theory based on power-law distance decay. The normalized scatterplot is introduced into the spatial analysis based on Getis-Ord’s indexes, and the potential energy indexes are proposed as a complementary measurement. The global Getis-Ord’s index proved to be the weighted sum of the potential energy indexes and the direct sum of total potential energy. The empirical analysis of the system of Chinese cities are taken as an example to illustrate the effect of the improved methods and measurements. The mathematical framework newly derived from Getis-Ord’s work is helpful for further developing the methodology of geographical spatial modeling and quantitative analysis.

Subnational mapping of under-5 and neonatal mortality trends in India: the Global Burden of Disease Study 2000-17

BACKGROUND

India has made substantial progress in improving child survival over the past few decades, but a comprehensive understanding of child mortality trends at disaggregated geographical levels is not available. We present a detailed analysis of subnational trends of child mortality to inform efforts aimed at meeting the India National Health Policy (NHP) and Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) targets for child mortality.

METHODS

We assessed the under-5 mortality rate (U5MR) and neonatal mortality rate (NMR) from 2000 to 2017 in 5 × 5 km grids across India, and for the districts and states of India, using all accessible data from various sources including surveys with subnational geographical information. The 31 states and groups of union territories were categorised into three groups using their Socio-demographic Index (SDI) level, calculated as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study on the basis of per-capita income, mean education, and total fertility rate in women younger than 25 years. Inequality between districts within the states was assessed using the coefficient of variation. We projected U5MR and NMR for the states and districts up to 2025 and 2030 on the basis of the trends from 2000 to 2017 and compared these projections with the NHP 2025 and SDG 2030 targets for U5MR (23 deaths and 25 deaths per 1000 livebirths, respectively) and NMR (16 deaths and 12 deaths per 1000 livebirths, respectively). We assessed the causes of child death and the contribution of risk factors to child deaths at the state level.

FINDINGS

U5MR in India decreased from 83·1 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 76·7-90·1) in 2000 to 42·4 (36·5-50·0) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, and NMR from 38·0 (34·2-41·6) to 23·5 (20·1-27·8) per 1000 livebirths. U5MR varied 5·7 times between the states of India and 10·5 times between the 723 districts of India in 2017, whereas NMR varied 4·5 times and 8·0 times, respectively. In the low SDI states, 275 (88%) districts had a U5MR of 40 or more per 1000 livebirths and 291 (93%) districts had an NMR of 20 or more per 1000 livebirths in 2017. The annual rate of change from 2010 to 2017 varied among the districts from a 9·02% (95% UI 6·30-11·63) reduction to no significant change for U5MR and from an 8·05% (95% UI 5·34-10·74) reduction to no significant change for NMR. Inequality between districts within the states increased from 2000 to 2017 in 23 of the 31 states for U5MR and in 24 states for NMR, with the largest increases in Odisha and Assam among the low SDI states. If the trends observed up to 2017 were to continue, India would meet the SDG 2030 U5MR target but not the SDG 2030 NMR target or either of the NHP 2025 targets. To reach the SDG 2030 targets individually, 246 (34%) districts for U5MR and 430 (59%) districts for NMR would need a higher rate of improvement than they had up to 2017. For all major causes of under-5 death in India, the death rate decreased between 2000 and 2017, with the highest decline for infectious diseases, intermediate decline for neonatal disorders, and the smallest decline for congenital birth defects, although the magnitude of decline varied widely between the states. Child and maternal malnutrition was the predominant risk factor, to which 68·2% (65·8-70·7) of under-5 deaths and 83·0% (80·6-85·0) of neonatal deaths in India could be attributed in 2017; 10·8% (9·1-12·4) of under-5 deaths could be attributed to unsafe water and sanitation and 8·8% (7·0-10·3) to air pollution.

INTERPRETATION

India has made gains in child survival, but there are substantial variations between the states in the magnitude and rate of decline in mortality, and even higher variations between the districts of India. Inequality between districts within states has increased for the majority of the states. The district-level trends presented here can provide crucial guidance for targeted efforts needed in India to reduce child mortality to meet the Indian and global child survival targets. District-level mortality trends along with state-level trends in causes of under-5 and neonatal death and the risk factors in this Article provide a comprehensive reference for further planning of child mortality reduction in India.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; and Indian Council of Medical Research, Department of Health Research, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of India.

Under-Five Child Growth and Nutrition Status: Spatial Clustering of Indian Districts

Variation in human growth and the genetic and environmental factors that are influencing it have been described worldwide. The objective of this study is to assess the geographical variance of under-five nutritional status and its related covariates across Indian districts. We use the most recent fourth round of the Indian National Family Health Survey conducted in 2015–2016, which for the first time offers district level information. We employ principal component analysis (PCA) on the demographic and socio-economic determinants of childhood morbidity and conduct hierarchical clustering analysis to identify geographical patterns in nutritional status at the district level. Our results reveal strong geographical clustering among the districts of India, often crossing state borders. Throughout most of Southern India, children are provided with relatively better conditions for growth and improved nutritional status, as compared to districts in the central, particularly rural parts of India along the so called “tribal belt”. Here is also where girls are on average measured to have less weight and height compared to boys. Looking at average weight, as well as the proportion of children that suffer from underweight and wasting, north-eastern Indian districts offer living conditions more conducive to healthy child development. The geographical clustering of malnutrition, as well as below-average child height and weight coincides with high poverty, low female education, lower BMI among mothers, higher prevalence of both parity 4 + and teenage pregnancies. The present study highlights the importance of combining PCA and cluster analysis in studying variation in under-five child growth and of conducting this analysis at the district level. We identify the geographical areas, where children are under severe risk of undernutrition, stunting and wasting and contribute to formulating policies to improve child nutrition in India.

District level inequality in reproductive, maternal, neonatal and child health coverage in India

Background

As India already missed maternal and child health related millennium development goals, the maternal and child health outcomes are a matter of concern to achieve sustainable development goals (SDGs). This study is focused to assess the gap in coverage and inequality of various reproductive, maternal, neonatal and child health (RMNCH) indicators in 640 districts of India, using data from most recent round of National Family Health Survey.

Methods

A composite index named Coverage Gap Index (CGI) was calculated, as the weighted average of eight preventive maternal and child care interventions at different administrative levels. Bivariate and spatial analysis were used to understand the geographical diversity and spatial clustering in districts of India. A socio-economic development index (SDI) was also derived and used to assess the interlinkages between CGI and development. The ratio method was used to assess the socio-economic inequality in CGI and its component at the national level.

Results

The average national CGI was 26.23% with the lowest in Kerala (10.48%) and highest in Nagaland (55.07%). Almost half of the Indian districts had CGI above the national average and mainly concentrated in high focus states and north-eastern part. From the geospatial analysis of CGI, 122 districts formed hotspots and 164 districts were in cold spot. The poorest households had 2.5 times higher CGI in comparison to the richest households and rural households have 1.5 times higher CGI as compared to urban households.

Conclusion

Evidence from the study suggests that many districts in India are lagging in terms of CGI and prioritize to achieve the desired level of maternal and child health outcomes. Efforts are needed to reduce the CGI among the poorest and rural resident which may curtail the inequality.

A method for measuring spatial effects on socioeconomic inequalities using the concentration index

BACKGROUND

Although spatial effects contribute to inequalities in health care service utilisation and other health outcomes in low and middle income countries, there have been no attempts to incorporate the impact of neighbourhood effects into equity analyses based on concentration indices. This study aimed to decompose and estimate the contribution of spatial effects on inequalities in uptake of HIV tests in Malawi.

METHODS

We developed a new method of reflecting spatial effects within the concentration index using a spatial weight matrix. Spatial autocorrelation is presented using a spatial lag model. We use data from the Malawi Demographic Health Survey (n = 24,562) to illustrate the new methodology. Need variables such as 'Any STI last 12 month', 'Genital sore/ulcer', 'Genital discharge' and non need variables such as Education, Literacy, Wealth, Marriage, and education were used in the concentration index. Using our modified concentration index that incorporates spatial effects, we estimate inequalities in uptake of HIV testing amongst both women and men living in Malawi in 2015-2016, controlling for need and non-need variables.

RESULTS

For women, inequalities due to need variables were estimated at - 0.001 and - 0.0009 (pro-poor) using the probit and new spatial probit estimators, respectively, whereas inequalities due to non-need variables were estimated at 0.01 and 0.0068 (pro-rich) using the probit and new spatial probit estimators. The results suggest that spatial effects increase estimated inequalities in HIV uptake amongst women. Horizontal inequity was almost identical (0.0103 vs 0.0102) after applying the spatial lag model. For men, inequalities due to need variables were estimated at - 0.0002 using both the probit and new spatial probit estimators; however, inequalities due to non-need variables were estimated at - 0.006 and - 0.0074 for the probit and new spatial probit models. Horizontal inequity was the same for both models (- 0.0057).

CONCLUSION

Our findings suggest that men from lower socioeconomic groups are more likely to receive an HIV test after adjustment for spatial effects. This study develops a novel methodological approach that incorporates estimation of spatial effects into a common approach to equity analysis. We find that a significant component of inequalities in HIV uptake in Malawi driven by non-need factors can be explained by spatial effects. When the spatial model was applied, the inequality due to non need in Lilongwe for men and horizontal inequity in Salima for women changed the sign. This approach can be used to explore inequalities in other contexts and settings to better understand the impact of spatial effects on health service use or other health outcomes, impacting on recommendations for service delivery.

The persistent influence of caste on under-five mortality: Factors that explain the caste-based gap in high focus Indian states

OBJECTIVE

Although under-five mortality rate (U5MR) is declining in India, it is still high in a few selected states and among the scheduled caste (SC) and scheduled tribe (ST) population of the country. This study re-examines the association between caste and under-five deaths in high focus Indian states following the implementation of the country's National Rural Health Mission (NRHM) program. In addition, we aim to quantify the contribution of socioeconomic determinants in explaining the gap in under-five death risk between the SC/ST population and non-SC/ST population in high focus states in India.

DATA AND METHOD

Using data from the National Family Health Survey (NFHS), we calculated the U5MR by applying a synthetic cohort probability approach. We applied a binary logistic regression model to examine the association of under-five deaths with the selected covariates. Further, we used Fairlie's decomposition technique to understand the relative contribution of socioeconomic variables on under-five death risk between the caste groups.

FINDINGS

In high focus Indian states, the under-five mortality risk between well-off and deprived caste children has declined in the post-NRHM period, indicating a positive impact in terms of reducing caste-based inequalities in the high focus states. Despite the reduction in under-five death risk, children belonging to the SC population experience higher mortality rates than children belonging to the non-SC/ST population from 1992 to 2016. Both macro level (district level mortality rates) and individual (regression analysis) analyses showed that children belonging to SCs experience the highest likelihood of dying before their fifth birthday. A decomposition analysis revealed that 83% of the caste-based gap in the under-five deaths is due to the distribution of women's level of educational attainment and household wealth between the SC/ST and non-SC/ST population. Program indicators such as place of birth and number of antenatal care (ANC) visit also contributed significantly to widening caste-based gaps in U5MR.

CONCLUSION

The study indicates that there is still room to improve access to health facilities for mothers and children belonging to deprived caste groups in India. Continuous efforts to raise the level of maternal education and the economic status of people belonging to deprived caste groups should be pursued simultaneously.

Continuities and changes in spatial patterns of under-five mortality at the district level in India (1991-2011)

Background

India has the largest number of under-five deaths globally, and large variations in under-five mortality persist between states and districts. Relationships between under-five mortality and numerous socioeconomic, development and environmental health factors have been explored at the national and state levels, but the possible spatial heterogeneity in these relationships has seldom been investigated at the district level. This study seeks to unravel local variation in key determinants of under-five mortality based on the 1991 and 2011 censuses.

Methods

Using geocoded district-level data from the last two census rounds (1991 and 2011) and ordinary least squares and geographically weighted regressions, we identify district-specific relationships between under-five mortality rate and a series of determinants for two periods separated by 20 years (1986–1987 and 2006–2007). To identify spatial groupings of coefficients, we perform a cluster analysis based on t-values of the geographically weighted regression.

Results

The geographically weighted regression analysis shows that relationships between the under-five mortality rate and factors for socioeconomic, development, and environmental health factors vary spatially in terms of direction, strength, and extent when considering: female literacy and labor force participation; share of scheduled castes and scheduled tribes; access to electricity; safe water and sanitation; road infrastructure; and medical facilities. This spatial heterogeneity is accompanied by significant changes over time in the roles that these factors play in under-five mortality. Important local determinants of under-five mortality in 2011 were female literacy, female labor force participation, access to sanitation facilities and electricity; while the key local determinants in 1991 were road infrastructure, safe water, and medical facilities. We identify six different clusters based on geographically weighted regression coefficients that broadly encompass the same districts in both periods; but these clusters do not follow the regional boundaries suggested by the previous studies. In particular, the high mortality states of India that are often typically classified as high focus states were classified into three different clusters based on the relationship of the factors associated with under-five mortality.

Conclusion

This study demonstrates the utility of combining geographically weighted regression and cluster analyses as a methodological approach to study local-level variation in public health indicators, and it could be applied in any country using aggregate-level information from census or survey data. Identifying local predictors of under-five mortality is important for designing interventions in specific districts. Additional reduction in under-five mortality will only be possible with intervention programs designed at the local level, which take into consideration local level determinants of under-five mortality.

Neonatal and under-five mortality rate in Indian districts with reference to Sustainable Development Goal 3: An analysis of the National Family Health Survey of India (NFHS), 2015-2016

Background and objective

India contributes the highest global share of deaths among the under-fives. Continuous monitoring of the reduction in the under-five mortality rate (U5MR) at local level is thus essential to set priorities for policy-makers and health professionals. In this study, we aimed to provide an update on district-level disparities in the neonatal mortality rate (NMR) and the U5MR with special reference to Sustainable Development Goal 3 (SDG3) on preventable deaths among new-borns and children under five.

Data and methods

We used recently released population-based cross-sectional data from the National Family Health Survey (NFHS) conducted in 2015–2016. We used the synthetic cohort probability approach to analyze the full birth history information of women aged 15–49 to estimate the NMR and U5MR for the ten years preceding the survey.

Results

Both the NMR and U5MR vary enormously across Indian districts. With respect to the SDG3 target for 2030 for the NMR and the U5MR, the estimated NMR for India for the period studied is about 2.4 times higher, while the estimated U5MR is about double. At district level, while 9% of the districts have already reached the NMR targeted in SDG3, nearly half (315 districts) are not likely to achieve the 2030 target even if they realize the NMR reductions achieved by their own states between the last two rounds of National Family Health Survey of India. Similarly, less than one-third of the districts (177) of India are unlikely to achieve the SDG3 target on the U5MR by 2030. While the majority of high-risk districts for the NMR and U5MR are located in the poorer states of north-central and eastern India, a few high-risk districts for NMR also fall in the rich and advanced states. About 97% of districts from Chhattisgarh and Uttar Pradesh, for example, are unlikely to meet the SDG3 target for preventable deaths among new-borns and children under age five, irrespective of gender.

Conclusions

To achieve the SDG3 target on preventable deaths by 2030, the majority of Indian districts clearly need to make a giant leap to reduce their NMR and U5MR.

Socio-Economic Predictors and Distribution of Tuberculosis Incidence in Beijing, China: A Study Using a Combination of Spatial Statistics and GIS Technology

Evidence shows that multiple factors, such as socio-economic status and access to health care facilities, affect tuberculosis (TB) incidence. However, there is limited literature available with respect to the correlation between socio-economic/health facility factors and tuberculosis incidence. This study aimed to explore the relationship between TB incidence and socio-economic/health service predictors in the study settings. A retrospective spatial regression analysis was carried out based on new sputum smear-positive pulmonary TB cases in Beijing districts. Global Moran’s I analysis was adopted to detect the spatial dependency followed by spatial regression models (spatial lag model, and spatial error model) along with the ordinary least square model were applied to examine the correlation between TB incidence and predictors. A high incidence of TB was seen in densely populated districts in Beijing, e.g., Haidian, Mentougou, and Xicheng. After comparing the R², log-likelihood, and Akaike information criterion (AIC) values among three models, the spatial error model (R² = 0.413; Log Likelihood = −591; AIC = 1199.76) identified the best model fit for the spatial regression model. The study showed that the number of beds in health institutes (p < 0.001) and per capita gross domestic product (GDP) (p = 0.025) had a positive effect on TB incidence, whereas population density (p < 0.001) and migrated population (p < 0.001) had an adverse impact on TB incidence in the study settings. High TB incidence districts were detected in urban and densely populated districts in Beijing. Our findings suggested that socio-economic predictors influence TB incidence. These findings may help to guide TB control programs and promote targeted intervention.

Reproductive health information needs and maternal literacy in the developing world

This article provides an analysis of the relationship of literacy and education in the developing world as they intertwine with reproductive health, and explores the reproductive health-related informational needs of women from these regions. Every day more than 800 women die from causes relating to pregnancy, 99% of whom are in the developing world. In 2015 16,000 children under five died every day. This article first provides a systematized review of the extensive canon of literature that explores the relationship between maternal literacy and mother and child health. A content analysis is conducted with the aim of deciphering the reproductive health-related informational needs of women in the developing world. Following, there is a discussion of interventions that have demonstrated success at ameliorating these gaps. Some of these interventions have met information needs related to family planning, HIV/AIDS, sexually transmitted infections, violence against women, sexuality, pregnancy education, and emergency obstetric care.

The Association between Environmental Factors and Scarlet Fever Incidence in Beijing Region: Using GIS and Spatial Regression Models

(1) Background: Evidence regarding scarlet fever and its relationship with meteorological, including air pollution factors, is not very available. This study aimed to examine the relationship between ambient air pollutants and meteorological factors with scarlet fever occurrence in Beijing, China. (2) Methods: A retrospective ecological study was carried out to distinguish the epidemic characteristics of scarlet fever incidence in Beijing districts from 2013 to 2014. Daily incidence and corresponding air pollutant and meteorological data were used to develop the model. Global Moran’s I statistic and Anselin’s local Moran’s I (LISA) were applied to detect the spatial autocorrelation (spatial dependency) and clusters of scarlet fever incidence. The spatial lag model (SLM) and spatial error model (SEM) including ordinary least squares (OLS) models were then applied to probe the association between scarlet fever incidence and meteorological including air pollution factors. (3) Results: Among the 5491 cases, more than half (62%) were male, and more than one-third (37.8%) were female, with the annual average incidence rate 14.64 per 100,000 population. Spatial autocorrelation analysis exhibited the existence of spatial dependence; therefore, we applied spatial regression models. After comparing the values of R-square, log-likelihood and the Akaike information criterion (AIC) among the three models, the OLS model (R² = 0.0741, log likelihood = −1819.69, AIC = 3665.38), SLM (R² = 0.0786, log likelihood = −1819.04, AIC = 3665.08) and SEM (R² = 0.0743, log likelihood = −1819.67, AIC = 3665.36), identified that the spatial lag model (SLM) was best for model fit for the regression model. There was a positive significant association between nitrogen oxide (p = 0.027), rainfall (p = 0.036) and sunshine hour (p = 0.048), while the relative humidity (p = 0.034) had an adverse association with scarlet fever incidence in SLM. (4) Conclusions: Our findings indicated that meteorological, as well as air pollutant factors may increase the incidence of scarlet fever; these findings may help to guide scarlet fever control programs and targeting the intervention.

Socioeconomic disparities in coverage of full immunisation among children of adolescent mothers in India, 1990-2006: a repeated cross-sectional analysis

OBJECTIVE

Studies have highlighted that children of adolescent (aged 15-19 years) mothers are likely to receive relatively poor healthcare. With an unacceptably high adolescent birth rate, India houses the highest number of adolescent mothers globally, putting children at risk of inadequate vaccination. This paper assesses trends and extent of socioeconomic disparities in the coverage of full immunisation among children of adolescent mothers in India.

DESIGN

Repeated cross-sectional analytical study.

DATA SOURCES

3 consecutive rounds of the National Family Health Survey (NFHS) conducted during 1992-1993, 1998-1999 and 2005-2006 were used. Besides, the required information is also extracted from the 2011 Indian Census.

PARTICIPANTS

Children (aged 12-23 months) of adolescent (aged 15-19 years) mothers. Sample inclusion criteria involved the last child of the adolescent eligible to avail full immunisation.

SETTING

Nationally representative sample.

DATA ANALYSIS

The Cochran-Armitage test, χ(2) test and binary logistic regression methods were applied to attain the study objective.

RESULTS

Between 1990 and 2006, a non-significant increase of 4 percentage points in full immunisation of children of adolescent mothers was estimated. During the same period, a large difference between the probability of children of adolescent mothers receiving full immunisation belonging to the least (predicted probability (PP): 0.196 in 1990-1993, and PP: 0.213 in 2003-2006) and the most (PP: 0.589 in 1990-1993, and PP: 0.645 in 2003-2006) socioeconomically privileged group was estimated, and this disparity persisted over the survey period.

CONCLUSIONS

During 1990-2006, an insufficient improvement in provision of full immunisation to children born to adolescent mothers was recorded. The study underscored the suboptimum immunisation of rural, illiterate and poor children of adolescent women. The programme and policymakers could focus on district-wise concentration of adolescent women, especially those belonging to the underprivileged groups, to design a targeted intervention to elevate the level of immunisation of children of adolescent mothers.

The big challenges in modeling human and environmental well-being

This article is a selective review of quantitative research, historical and prospective, that is needed to inform sustainable development policy. I start with a simple framework to highlight how demography and productivity shape human well-being. I use that to discuss three sets of issues and corresponding challenges to modeling: first, population prehistory and early human development and their implications for the future; second, the multiple distinct dimensions of human and environmental well-being and the meaning of sustainability; and, third, inequality as a phenomenon triggered by development and models to examine changing inequality and its consequences. I conclude with a few words about other important factors: political, institutional, and cultural.

Ecological context of infant mortality in high-focus states of India

OBJECTIVES

This goal of this study was to shed light on the ecological context as a potential determinant of the infant mortality rate in nine high-focus states in India.

METHODS

Data from the Annual Health Survey (2010-2011), the Census of India (2011), and the District Level Household and Facility Survey 3 (2007-08) were used in this study. In multiple regression analysis explanatory variable such as underdevelopment is measured by the non-working population, and income inequality, quantified as the proportion of households in the bottom wealth quintile. While, the trickle-down effect of education is measured by female literacy, and investment in health, as reflected by neonatal care facilities in primary health centres.

RESULTS

A high spatial autocorrelation of district infant mortality rates was observed, and ecological factors were found to have a significant impact on district infant mortality rates. The result also revealed that non-working population and income inequality were found to have a negative effect on the district infant mortality rate. Additionally, female literacy and new-born care facilities were found to have an inverse association with the infant mortality rate.

CONCLUSIONS

Interventions at the community level can reduce district infant mortality rates.

A new methodology of spatial cross-correlation analysis

Spatial correlation modeling comprises both spatial autocorrelation and spatial cross-correlation processes. The spatial autocorrelation theory has been well-developed. It is necessary to advance the method of spatial cross-correlation analysis to supplement the autocorrelation analysis. This paper presents a set of models and analytical procedures for spatial cross-correlation analysis. By analogy with Moran's index newly expressed in a spatial quadratic form, a theoretical framework is derived for geographical cross-correlation modeling. First, two sets of spatial cross-correlation coefficients are defined, including a global spatial cross-correlation coefficient and local spatial cross-correlation coefficients. Second, a pair of scatterplots of spatial cross-correlation is proposed, and the plots can be used to visually reveal the causality behind spatial systems. Based on the global cross-correlation coefficient, Pearson's correlation coefficient can be decomposed into two parts: direct correlation (partial correlation) and indirect correlation (spatial cross-correlation). As an example, the methodology is applied to the relationships between China's urbanization and economic development to illustrate how to model spatial cross-correlation phenomena. This study is an introduction to developing the theory of spatial cross-correlation, and future geographical spatial analysis might benefit from these models and indexes.

Association of child health and household amenities in high focus states in India: a district-level analysis

OBJECTIVES

To assess household amenities in districts of high focus states and their association with child health in India.

DESIGN

The data for the study are extracted from Annual Health Survey (AHS) and Census 2011.

SETTINGS

Districts in high focus states in India.

PARTICIPANTS

Information regarding children below 5 years of age and women aged 15-49 has been extracted from the AHS (2010-2011), and household amenities information has been obtained from the Census (2011).

MEASURES

Household amenities were assessed from the census at the district level in the high focus states. Child health indicators and wealth index were borrowed from AHS and used in this study to check their linkage with household amenities.

RESULTS

Absence of drinking water from a treated source, improved sanitation, usage of clean cooking fuel and drainage facility in the household were adversely associated with the incidence of acute respiratory infection, diarrhoea, infant mortality rate (IMR) and under 5 mortality rate (U5MR). The mean IMR declined from 64 to 54 for districts where a high proportion of household have improved sanitation. The result of ordinary least square regression shows that improved sanitation has a negative and statistically significant association (β=-0.0067, p<0.01) with U5MR.

CONCLUSIONS

Although child healthcare services are important in addressing child health issues, they barely touch on the root of the problem. Building toilets and providing safe drinking water, clean cooking fuel and drainage facilities at the household level, may prevent a number of adverse child health issues and may reduce the burden on the healthcare system in India.