Framingham risk score with cardiovascular events in chronic kidney disease

Development and validation of a prediction model for people with mild chronic kidney disease in Japanese individuals

BACKGROUND

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) poses significant health risks due to its asymptomatic nature in early stages and its association with increased cardiovascular and kidney events. Early detection and management are critical for improving outcomes.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to develop and validate a prediction model for hospitalization for ischemic heart disease (IHD) or cerebrovascular disease (CVD) and major kidney events in Japanese individuals with mild CKD using readily available health check and prescription data.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study was conducted using data from approximately 850,000 individuals in the PREVENT Inc. database, collected between April 2013 and April 2023. Cox proportional hazard regression models were utilized to derive and validate risk scores for hospitalization for IHD/CVD and major kidney events, incorporating traditional risk factors and CKD-specific variables. Model performance was assessed using the concordance index (c-index) and 5-fold cross-validation.

RESULTS

A total of 40,351 individuals were included. Key predictors included age, sex, diabetes, hypertension, and lipid levels for hospitalization for IHD/CVD and major kidney events. Age significantly increased the risk score for both hospitalization for IHD/CVD and major kidney events. The baseline 5-year survival rates are 0.99 for hospitalization for IHD/CVD and major kidney events are 0.99. The developed risk models demonstrated predictive ability, with mean c-indexes of 0.75 for hospitalization for IHD/CVD and 0.69 for major kidney events.

CONCLUSIONS

This prediction model offers a practical tool for early identification of Japanese individuals with mild CKD at risk for hospitalization for IHD/CVD and major kidney events, facilitating timely interventions to improve patient outcomes and reduce healthcare costs. The models stratified patients into risk categories, enabling identification of those at higher risk for adverse events. Further clinical validation is required.

Impact of primary aldosteronism on kidney function: results from the SPAIN-ALDO registry

AIM

To evaluate the impact of aldosterone excess on renal function in individuals with primary aldosteronism and to compare its evolution after surgery or mineralocorticoid receptor antagonist (MRA) treatment.

METHODS

A multicentre, retrospective cohort study of primary aldosteronism patients in follow-up in 36 Spanish tertiary hospitals, who underwent specific treatment for primary aldosteronism (MRA or adrenalectomy).

RESULTS

A total of 789 patients with primary aldosteronism were included, with a median age of 57.5 years and 41.8% being women. At primary aldosteronism diagnosis, the prevalence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) was 10.7% ( n  = 84), with 75% of cases classified as state 3a ( n  = 63). Primary aldosteronism patients with CKD had a longer duration of hypertension, a higher prevalence of type 2 diabetes, dyslipidaemia, cardiovascular events, hypokalaemia, and albuminuria. Unilateral adrenalectomy was performed in 41.8% of cases ( n  = 330), and 459 patients were treated with MRA. After a median follow-up of 30.7 months (range 13.3-68.4), there was a significant decline in the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) in operated patients and those receiving MRA. During follow-up, 24.4% of patients with CKD at the time of primary aldosteronism diagnosis had normalized renal function, and 39% of those with albuminuria had albuminuria remission. There were no differences in renal function or albuminuria regression between the two therapy groups. However, development of albuminuria was less common in operated than in medically treated patients (0 vs. 6.0%, P  = 0.009).

CONCLUSION

CKD affects around 10% of the patients with primary aldosteronism, with a higher risk in individuals with long-term hypertension, type 2 diabetes, dyslipidaemia, cardiovascular events, hypokalaemia, and albuminuria. At short-term, both MRA and surgical treatment lead to a reduction of renal function, but adrenalectomy led to higher renal protection.

Left ventricular hypertrophy and left atrial diameter are associated with mortality risk in haemodialysis patients: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular death is the main cause of death in patients with end-stage kidney disease (ESKD). Left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) and left atrial diameter (LAD) enlargement are frequent cardiac alterations in patients with ESKD and are major risk factors for cardiovascular events. However, it remains unclear whether there is an association between combined LAD or LVH and all-cause or cardiovascular mortality in this population.

METHODS

A single-centre, retrospective cohort study including 576 haemodialysis (HD) patients was conducted. Patients were evaluated by cardiac ultrasound, and the study cohort was divided into four groups according to LAD and LVH status: low LAD and non-LVH; low LAD and LVH; high LAD and non-LVH; and high LAD and LVH. We used Kaplan-Meier analysis and Cox proportional hazard regression to analyse all-cause and cardiovascular mortality after multivariate adjustment.

RESULTS

LAD was associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality (HR 2.371, 1.602-3.509; p < 0.001). No significant differences were found between LVH and the risk of all-cause mortality. Patients with high LAD and LVH had significantly greater all-cause and cardiovascular mortality than did those with low LAD and non-LVH after adjustments for numerous potential confounders (HR 3.080, 1.608-5.899; p = 0.001) (HR 4.059, 1.753-9.397; p = 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Among maintenance haemodialysis (MHD) patients, LAD was more strongly associated with mortality than was LVH. A high LAD and LVH are associated with a greater risk of mortality. Our results emphasize that the occurrence of LAD and LVH in combination provides information that may be helpful in stratifying the risk of MHD patients.

The Prognostic Role of Serum β-Trace Protein Levels among Patients on Maintenance Hemodialysis

Cardiovascular (CV) diseases are the most commonly encountered etiology of mortality in patients having kidney failure. β-Trace protein (BTP) is a biomarker of glomerular filtration function as well as a potential predictor of adverse CV outcomes. This study aimed to determine the prognostic value of BTP in patients on chronic hemodialysis (HD). A total of 96 patients undergoing HD were enrolled. Baseline variables were collected, and the patients were tracked for 3 years. Twenty-five patients died at 3 years. Those who experienced mortality were noted to have higher serum concentrations of BTP and a higher incidence of diabetes mellitus (DM). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for serum BTP distinguishing mortality from survival was 0.659 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.555-0.752; p = 0.027). After the adjustment of variables potentially affecting survival rates, BTP levels above the median (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR]: 2.913, 95% CI, 1.256-6.754; p = 0.013), the presence of DM (aHR: 2.474, 95% CI, 1.041-5.875; p = 0.040), and low serum albumin (aHR: 0.298, 95% CI, 0.110-0.806; p = 0.017) independently correlated with survival in HD patients. Serum BTP is a novel biomarker for predicting overall outcomes in HD patients.

Strategies to prevent, diagnose and treat kidney disease related to systemic arterial hypertension: a narrative review from the Mexican Group of Experts on Arterial Hypertension

This narrative review highlights strategies proposed by the Mexican Group of Experts on Arterial Hypertension endorsed to prevent, diagnose, and treat chronic kidney disease (CKD) related to systemic arterial hypertension (SAH). Given the growing prevalence of CKD in Mexico and Latin America caused by SAH, there is a need for context-specific approaches to address the effects of SAH, given the diverse population and unique challenges faced by the region. This narrative review provides clinical strategies for healthcare providers on preventing, diagnosing, and treating kidney disease related to SAH, focusing on primary prevention, early detection, evidence-based diagnostic approaches, and selecting pharmacological treatments. Key-strategies are focused on six fundamental areas: 1) Strategies to mitigate kidney disease in SAH, 2) early detection of CKD in SAH, 3) diagnosis and monitoring of SAH, 4) blood pressure targets in patients living with CKD, 5) hypertensive treatment in patients with CKD and 6) diuretics and Non-Steroidal Mineralocorticoid Receptor Inhibitors in Patients with CKD. This review aims to provide relevant strategies for the Mexican and Latin American clinical context, highlight the importance of a multidisciplinary approach to managing SAH, and the role of community-based programs in improving the quality of life for affected individuals. This position paper seeks to contribute to reducing the burden of SAH-related CKD and its complications in Mexico and Latin America.

Endothelial function, arterial stiffness and Framingham risk score in chronic kidney disease: A prospective observational cohort study

The aim of this study was to assess the role of endothelial function measured by the reactive hyperemia index (RHI), arterial stiffness measured by the augmentation index (AIx), and Framingham's cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk score (FRS) in kidney function decline in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). The RHI and AIx@75 (adjusted for 75 heart beats per minute), both derived from peripheral arterial tonometry (EndoPAT), were measured in 428 CKD patients aged 18 years old and older during hospitalization. We evaluated kidney function and its decline (incident ≥40% decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] or initiation of renal replacement therapy) associated with the RHI, AIx@75, and FRS during follow-up for a median of 36 months. The mean age of the participants was 56 years old, and 63.8% were men. In Spearman correlation analysis, the FRS, AIx@75, and RHI levels inversely correlated with eGFR. Over a median follow-up of 36 months, 122 participants experienced kidney function decline. In multivariate Cox analysis, only the FRS remained independently associated with the progression of kidney function (HR, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.14 to 1.64; P = 0.001). Multivariable-adjusted spline regression models showed a positive linear relationship between the FRS and the risk of kidney function decline (P-overall = 0.001, P-nonlinear = 0.701). However, adding the FRS to a model containing kidney function markers did not improve risk prediction for kidney outcome (category-free net reclassification improvement index [cf-NRI] = 0.179, P = 0.084; integrated discrimination improvement [IDI] = 0.017, P = 0.128). Additionally, the increased risk of the outcome associated with an elevated FRS was particularly evident among CKD patients with eGFR ≥60 ml/min/1.73  m² (eGFR ≥ 60 ml/min/1.73 m² vs.< 60 ml/min/1.73 m², P for interaction =  0.022). Participants with higher FRS levels were at increased risk of kidney function decline, emphasizing the important role of traditional CVD risk factors in the progression of CKD.

The Cardiovascular Literature-Based Risk Algorithm (CALIBRA): Predicting Cardiovascular Events in Patients With Non-Dialysis Dependent Chronic Kidney Disease

Background and Objectives

Cardiovascular (CV) disease is the main cause of morbidity and mortality in patients suffering from chronic kidney disease (CKD). Although it is widely recognized that CV risk assessment represents an essential prerequisite for clinical management, existing prognostic models appear not to be entirely adequate for CKD patients. We derived a literature-based, naïve-bayes model predicting the yearly risk of CV hospitalizations among patients suffering from CKD, referred as the CArdiovascular, LIterature-Based, Risk Algorithm (CALIBRA).

Methods

CALIBRA incorporates 31 variables including traditional and CKD-specific risk factors. It was validated in two independent CKD populations: the FMC NephroCare cohort (European Clinical Database, EuCliD®) and the German Chronic Kidney Disease (GCKD) study prospective cohort. CALIBRA performance was evaluated by c-statistics and calibration charts. In addition, CALIBRA discrimination was compared with that of three validated tools currently used for CV prediction in CKD, namely the Framingham Heart Study (FHS) risk score, the atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk score (ASCVD), and the Individual Data Analysis of Antihypertensive Intervention Trials (INDANA) calculator. Superiority was defined as a ΔAUC>0.05.

Results

CALIBRA showed good discrimination in both the EuCliD® medical registry (AUC 0.79, 95%CI 0.76-0.81) and the GCKD cohort (AUC 0.73, 95%CI 0.70-0.76). CALIBRA demonstrated improved accuracy compared to the benchmark models in EuCliD® (FHS: ΔAUC=-0.22, p<0.001; ASCVD: ΔAUC=-0.17, p<0.001; INDANA: ΔAUC=-0.14, p<0.001) and GCKD (FHS: ΔAUC=-0.16, p<0.001; ASCVD: ΔAUC=-0.12, p<0.001; INDANA: ΔAUC=-0.04, p<0.001) populations. Accuracy of the CALIBRA score was stable also for patients showing missing variables.

Conclusion

CALIBRA provides accurate and robust stratification of CKD patients according to CV risk and allows score calculations with improved accuracy compared to established CV risk scores also in real-world clinical cohorts with considerable missingness rates. Our results support the generalizability of CALIBRA across different CKD populations and clinical settings.

Framingham Risk Score Assessment in Subjects with Pre-diabetes and Diabetes: A Cross-Sectional Study in Korea

Background

This study aimed to evaluate cardiovascular risk in subjects with pre-diabetes and diabetes in Korea.

Methods

In this pan-Korean, non-interventional, cross-sectional study, data were collected from medical records of 10 hospitals between November 2013 and June 2014. Subjects (aged ≥40 years) with medical records of dysglycemia and documentation of total cholesterol level, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol level, systolic blood pressure, and smoking status in the past 6 months were included. The primary endpoint was to determine the Framingham risk score (FRS). The relationships between FRS and cardiovascular risk factors, glycated hemoglobin, and insulin usage were determined by multiple linear regression analyses.

Results

Data from 1,537 subjects with pre-diabetes (n=1,025) and diabetes (n=512) were analyzed. The mean FRS (mean±standard deviation) in subjects with pre-diabetes/diabetes was 13.72±8.77. FRS was higher in subjects with diabetes than pre-diabetes (P<0.001). FRS in men with pre-diabetes was comparable to that in women with diabetes (13.80±7.37 vs. 13.35±7.13). FRS was elevated in subjects who consumed alcohol (2.66, P=0.033) and with obesity-class II (6.10, P=0.015) among subjects with diabetes (n=199), and was elevated in patients with left ventricular hypertrophy (11.10, P=0.005), those who consumed alcohol (3.06, P=0.000), were pre-obese (3.21, P=0.002), or were obesity-class I (2.89, P=0.002) among subjects with pre-diabetes (n=306) in comparison to subjects without these coexisting risk factors.

Conclusion

Overall, Korean subjects with pre-diabetes and diabetes have an increased cardiovascular risk, which is significantly higher in those subjects with diabetes than with pre-diabetes. The present data can be used to develop measures to prevent and manage cardiovascular complications in Koreans with impaired glucose metabolism.

The Framingham Risk Score Is Associated with Chronic Graft Failure in Renal Transplant Recipients

Predicting chronic graft failure in renal transplant recipients (RTR) is an unmet clinical need. Chronic graft failure is often accompanied by transplant vasculopathy, the formation of de novo atherosclerosis in the transplanted kidney. Therefore, we determined whether the 10-year Framingham risk score (FRS), an established atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease prediction module, is associated with chronic graft failure in RTR. In this prospective longitudinal study, 600 well-characterised RTR were followed for 10 years. The association with death-censored chronic graft failure (n = 81, 13.5%) was computed. An extended Cox model showed that each one percent increase of the FRS significantly increased the risk of chronic graft failure by 4% (HR: 1.04, p < 0.001). This association remained significant after adjustment for potential confounders, including eGFR (HR: 1.03, p = 0.014). Adding the FRS to eGFR resulted in a higher AUC in a receiver operating curve (AUC = 0.79, p < 0.001) than eGFR alone (AUC = 0.75, p < 0.001), and an improvement in the model likelihood ratio statistic (67.60 to 88.39, p < 0.001). These results suggest that a combination of the FRS and eGFR improves risk prediction. The easy to determine and widely available FRS has clinical potential to predict chronic graft failure in RTR.

Performance of a cardiac lipid panel compared to four prognostic scores in chronic heart failure

The cardiac lipid panel (CLP) is a novel panel of metabolomic biomarkers that has previously shown to improve the diagnostic and prognostic value for CHF patients. Several prognostic scores have been developed for cardiovascular disease risk, but their use is limited to specific populations and precision is still inadequate. We compared a risk score using the CLP plus NT-proBNP to four commonly used risk scores: The Seattle Heart Failure Model (SHFM), Framingham risk score (FRS), Barcelona bio-HF (BCN Bio-HF) and Meta-Analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure (MAGGIC) score. We included 280 elderly CHF patients from the Cardiac Insufficiency Bisoprolol Study in Elderly trial. Cox Regression and hierarchical cluster analysis was performed. Integrated area under the curves (IAUC) was used as criterium for comparison. The mean (SD) follow-up period was 81 (33) months, and 95 (34%) subjects met the primary endpoint. The IAUC for FRS was 0.53, SHFM 0.61, BCN Bio-HF 0.72, MAGGIC 0.68, and CLP 0.78. Subjects were partitioned into three risk clusters: low, moderate, high with the CLP score showing the best ability to group patients into their respective risk cluster. A risk score composed of a novel panel of metabolite biomarkers plus NT-proBNP outperformed other common prognostic scores in predicting 10-year cardiovascular death in elderly ambulatory CHF patients. This approach could improve the clinical risk assessment of CHF patients.

Triglyceride Glucose Index Is Associated With Arterial Stiffness and 10-Year Cardiovascular Disease Risk in a Chinese Population

Background: Insulin resistance (IR) is a significant risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD). In this study, the association of the triglyceride glucose (TyG) index, a simple surrogate marker of IR, with arterial stiffness and 10-year CVD risk was evaluated.

Methods: A total of 13,706 participants were enrolled. Anthropometric and cardiovascular risk factors were determined in all participants, while serum insulin levels were only measured in 955 participants. Arterial stiffness was measured through brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity (baPWV), and 10-year CVD risk was evaluated using the Framingham risk score.

Results: All participants were classified into four groups according to the quartile of the TyG index. BaPWV and the percentage of participants in the 10-year CVD risk categories significantly increased with increasing quartiles of the TyG index. Logistic regression analysis showed that the TyG index was independently associated with a high baPWV and 10-year CVD risk after adjusting for traditional CVD risk factors. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROC) of the TyG index for predicting a high baPWV was 0.708 (95%CI 0.693–0.722, P < 0.001) in women, higher than that in men. However, the association of the homeostatic model assessment of IR (HOMA-IR) with a high baPWV and the 10-year CVD risk was absent when adjusting for multiple risk factors in 955 participants.

Conclusions: The TyG index is independently associated with arterial stiffness and 10-year CVD risk.

Prognostic models for chronic kidney disease: a systematic review and external validation

BACKGROUND

Accurate risk prediction is needed in order to provide personalized healthcare for chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients. An overload of prognosis studies is being published, ranging from individual biomarker studies to full prediction studies. We aim to systematically appraise published prognosis studies investigating multiple biomarkers and their role in risk predictions. Our primary objective was to investigate if the prognostic models that are reported in the literature were of sufficient quality and to externally validate them.

METHODS

We undertook a systematic review and appraised the quality of studies reporting multivariable prognosis models for end-stage renal disease (ESRD), cardiovascular (CV) events and mortality in CKD patients. We subsequently externally validated these models in a randomized trial that included patients from a broad CKD population.

RESULTS

We identified 91 papers describing 36 multivariable models for prognosis of ESRD, 50 for CV events, 46 for mortality and 17 for a composite outcome. Most studies were deemed of moderate quality. Moreover, they often adopted different definitions for the primary outcome and rarely reported full model equations (21% of the included studies). External validation was performed in the Multifactorial Approach and Superior Treatment Efficacy in Renal Patients with the Aid of Nurse Practitioners trial (n = 788, with 160 events for ESRD, 79 for CV and 102 for mortality). The 24 models that reported full model equations showed a great variability in their performance, although calibration remained fairly adequate for most models, except when predicting mortality (calibration slope >1.5).

CONCLUSIONS

This review shows that there is an abundance of multivariable prognosis models for the CKD population. Most studies were considered of moderate quality, and they were reported and analysed in such a manner that their results cannot directly be used in follow-up research or in clinical practice.

The Impact of CKD Anaemia on Patients: Incidence, Risk Factors, and Clinical Outcomes-A Systematic Literature Review

Anaemia is a common consequence of chronic kidney disease (CKD); however, the risk factors for its development and its impact on outcomes have not been well synthesised. Therefore, we undertook a systematic review to fully characterise the risk factors associated with the presence of anaemia in patients with CKD and a contemporary synthesis of the risks of adverse outcomes in patients with CKD and anaemia. We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Library from 2002 until 2018 for studies reporting the incidence or prevalence of anaemia and associated risk factors and/or associations between haemoglobin (Hb) or anaemia and mortality, major adverse cardiac events (MACE), hospitalisation, or CKD progression in adult patients with CKD. Extracted data were summarised as risk factors related to the incidence or prevalence of anaemia or the risk (hazard ratio (HR)) of outcome by Hb level (<10, 10-12, >12 g/dL) in patients not on dialysis and in those receiving dialysis. 191 studies met the predefined inclusion criteria. The risk factor most associated with the prevalence of anaemia was CKD stage, followed by age and sex. Mean HRs (95% CI) for all-cause mortality in patients with CKD on dialysis with Hb <10, 10-12, and >12 g/dL were 1.56 (1.43-1.71), 1.17 (1.09-1.26), and 0.91 (0.87-0.96), respectively. Similar patterns were observed for nondialysis patients and for the risks of hospitalisation, MACE, and CKD progression. This is the first known systematic review to quantify the risk of adverse clinical outcomes based on Hb level in patients with CKD. Anaemia was consistently associated with greater mortality, hospitalisation, MACE, and CKD progression in patients with CKD, and risk increased with anaemia severity. Effective treatments that not only treat the anaemia but also reduce the risk of adverse clinical outcomes are essential to help reduce the burden of anaemia and its management in CKD.

Integration of estimated glomerular filtration rate biomarker in image-based cardiovascular disease/stroke risk calculator: a south Asian-Indian diabetes cohort with moderate chronic kidney disease

BACKGROUND

Recently, a 10-year image-based integrated calculator (called AtheroEdge Composite Risk Score-AECRS1.0) was developed which combines conventional cardiovascular risk factors (CCVRF) with image phenotypes derived from carotid ultrasound (CUS). Such calculators did not include chronic kidney disease (CKD)-based biomarker called estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). The novelty of this study is to design and develop an advanced integrated version called-AECRS2.0 that combines eGFR with image phenotypes to compute the composite risk score. Furthermore, AECRS2.0 was benchmarked against QRISK3 which considers eGFR for risk assessment.

METHODS

The method consists of three major steps: 1) five, current CUS image phenotypes (CUSIP) measurements using AtheroEdge system (AtheroPoint, CA, USA) consisting of: average carotid intima-media thickness (cIMTave), maximum cIMT (cIMTmax), minimum cIMT (cIMTmin), variability in cIMT (cIMTV), and total plaque area (TPA); 2) five, 10-year CUSIP measurements by combining these current five CUSIP with 11 CCVRF (age, ethnicity, gender, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, smoking, carotid artery type, hemoglobin, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, total cholesterol, and eGFR); 3) AECRS2.0 risk score computation and its comparison to QRISK3 using area-under-the-curve (AUC).

RESULTS

South Asian-Indian 339 patients were retrospectively analyzed by acquiring their left/right common carotid arteries (678 CUS, mean age: 54.25±9.84 years; 75.22% males; 93.51% diabetic with HbA1c ≥6.5%; and mean eGFR 73.84±20.91 mL/min/1.73m²). The proposed AECRS2.0 reported higher AUC (AUC=0.89, P<0.001) compared to QRISK3 (AUC=0.51, P<0.001) by ~74% in CKD patients.

CONCLUSIONS

An integrated calculator AECRS2.0 can be used to assess the 10-year CVD/stroke risk in patients suffering from CKD. AECRS2.0 was much superior to QRISK3.

Skin autofluorescence, arterial stiffness and Framingham risk score as predictors of clinical outcome in chronic kidney disease patients: a cohort study

BACKGROUND

The risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) is predicted by Framingham's CVD risk scores (FRS) but the high CVD-related mortality in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) is only partially explained by traditional CVD risk markers. Therefore, there is a need to explore whether other CVD risk markers may improve risk prediction. Although arterial stiffness measured by augmentation index (AIx) and tissue content of advanced glycation end-products (AGEs) measured by skin autofluorescence (SAF) are two biomarkers that associate with CVD and mortality in CKD, it is not known how they compare with FRS. We evaluated associations between SAF, AIx and FRS, and their associations with CVD and mortality in CKD patients.

METHODS

SAF (AGE Reader) and AIx (SphygmoCor; adjusted for 75 heart beats per minute) were measured in 261 clinically stable and extensively phenotyped patients with CKD Stage 5 (median age 56 years, 66% male, 20% diabetes; 130 non-dialysed, 93 patients on peritoneal dialysis and 38 patients on haemodialysis). Multivariate receiver operator characteristics (ROC) curve analysis and multivariate Cox models followed by C-statistics were used to evaluate CVD-related and all-cause mortality risk associated with SAF, AIx and FRS during follow-up for median 25 months with 46 deaths.

RESULTS

In multivariate regression analysis, SAF associated with FRS, haemoglobin, fat body mass index and CVD, and inversely with per cent handgrip strength (HGS). AIx associated with FRS, and inversely with per cent HGS. Associations of SAF and AIx with high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP), serum albumin, statin therapy and renal replacement therapy were not statistically significant. In ROC analysis, area under the curve (AUC) for CVD mortality ranged from AUC = 0.72 (AIx and FRS, respectively) to AUC = 0.78 (FRS + AIx), and for all-cause mortality from AUC = 0.70 (AIx) to AUC = 0.79 (FRS + AIx). In multivariate Cox analysis, after adjusting for 1-standard deviation (1-SD) of FRS, 1-SD increase of SAF associated with all-cause mortality and 1-SD increase of AIx associated with CVD mortality and all-cause mortality. After further adjustments for hsCRP, albumin and presence of CVD, AIx (but not SAF) remained independently associated with CVD mortality, hazard ratio (HR) 2.14 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.18-3.89] and all-cause mortality, HR 1.74 (95% CI 1.16-2.60).

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with CKD Stage 5, SAF and aortic stiffness associated with mortality, independently of FRS. After adjusting for additional confounders including inflammation, aortic stiffness remained as an independent predictor of outcome. Since the contribution of SAF and aortic stiffness compared with FRS in ROC curve analysis was relatively modest, this underlines the importance of traditional CVD risk factors in CKD.

Cardiovascular risk prediction in chronic kidney disease patients

INTRODUCTION

Scores underestimate the prediction of cardiovascular risk (CVR) as they are not validated in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). Two of the most commonly used scores are the Framingham Risk Score (FRS-CVD) and the ASCVD (AHA/ACC 2013). The aim of this study is to evaluate the predictive ability of experiencing a cardiovascular event (CVE) via these 2scores in the CKD population.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Prospective, observational study of 400 prevalent patients with CKD (stages 4 and 5 according the KDOQI; not on dialysis). Cardiovascular risk was calculated according to the 2scores and the predictive capacity of cardiovascular events (atherosclerotic events: myocardial infarction, ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke, peripheral vascular disease; and non-atherosclerotic events: heart failure) was analysed.

RESULTS

Forty-nine atherosclerotic cardiovascular events occurred in 40.3±6.6 months of follow-up. Most of the patients were classified as high CVR by both scores (59% by the FRS-CVD and 75% by the ASCVD). All cardiovascular events occurred in the high CVR patients and both scores (FRS-CVD log-rank 12.2, P<.001, HR 3.1 [95% CI: 1.3-7.1] P: 0.006 and ASCVD log-rank 8.5 P<.001, HR 3.2 [95% CI: 1.1-9.4] P: 0.03) were independent predictors adjusted to renal function, albuminuria and previous cardiovascular events.

CONCLUSION

The cardiovascular risk scores (FRS-CVD and ASCVD [AHA/ACC 2013]) can estimate the probability of atherosclerotic cardiovascular events in patients with CKD regardless of renal function, albuminuria and previous cardiovascular events.

Cardiovascular risk prediction in people with chronic kidney disease

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Clinical guidelines are not consistent regarding whether or how to utilize information on measures of chronic kidney disease (CKD) for predicting the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). This review summarizes recent literature regarding CVD prediction in the context of CKD.

RECENT FINDINGS

Previous studies used different definitions of CKD measures and CVD outcomes, and applied distinct statistical approaches. A recent individual-level meta-analysis from the CKD Prognosis Consortium is of value as it has uniformly investigated creatinine-based estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and albuminuria as CKD measures and applied the same statistical approach across 24 cohorts with more than 630 000 participants. In this meta-analysis, eGFR and albuminuria improve CVD risk prediction beyond traditional CVD risk factors, particularly for CVD mortality and heart failure. Albuminuria demonstrates more evident improvement than eGFR. Moreover, several recent studies have shown that other filtration markers, for example, cystatin C and β2-microglobulin, and measures of atherosclerosis or cardiac damage (e.g., coronary artery calcium and cardiac troponins) can further improve CVD prediction in the CKD population.

SUMMARY

Future clinical guidelines may require updates regarding whether/how to incorporate CKD measures and other biomarkers in CVD prediction, depending on the CVD outcomes of interest, target population, and availability of those measures/biomarkers in that population.

Elevated Biomarkers of Inflammation and Coagulation in Patients with HIV Are Associated with Higher Framingham and VACS Risk Index Scores

Background

Biomarkers of inflammation and altered coagulation are of increasing interest as predictors of chronic disease and mortality in HIV patients, as well as the use of risk stratification scores such as the Framingham index and the Veterans Aging Cohort Study (VACS) score.

Methods

Demographic and laboratory data for 252 HIV patients were assessed for their relationship with 5 biomarkers: hsCRP, D-dimer, Cystatin C, IL-6 and TNF-alpha. Analysis of variance was used to model the association between the number of elevated biomarkers patients had and their Framingham 10 year cardiovascular risk and VACS scores.

Results

87% of patients were male and 75.7% were virally suppressed (HIV RNA <48 copies/ml). The median and interquartile ranges for each biomarker were: hsCRP 1.65 ug/mL (0.73, 3.89), D-dimer 0.17 ug/mL (0.09, 0.31), Cystatin C 0.87 mg/L (0.78, 1.01), IL-6 2.13 pg/mL (1.3, 3.59), TNF-alpha 4.65 pg/mL (3.5, 5.97). 62.6% of patients had more than one biomarker >75^th percentile, while 18.6% had three or more elevated biomarkers. Increased age, cigarette smoking, CD4 counts of <200 cells/mm³, Framingham scores and VACS scores were most strongly associated with elevations in biomarkers. When biomarkers were used to predict the Framingham and VACS scores, those with a higher number of elevated biomarkers had higher mean VACS scores, with a similar but less robust finding for Framingham scores.

Conclusions

Despite viral suppression and immunological stability, biomarkers of inflammation and coagulation remain elevated in a significant number of patients with HIV and are associated with higher scores on risk stratification indices.

Estimated glomerular filtration rate and albuminuria for prediction of cardiovascular outcomes: a collaborative meta-analysis of individual participant data

BACKGROUND

The usefulness of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and albuminuria for prediction of cardiovascular outcomes is controversial. We aimed to assess the addition of creatinine-based eGFR and albuminuria to traditional risk factors for prediction of cardiovascular risk with a meta-analytic approach.

METHODS

We meta-analysed individual-level data for 637 315 individuals without a history of cardiovascular disease from 24 cohorts (median follow-up 4·2-19·0 years) included in the Chronic Kidney Disease Prognosis Consortium. We assessed C statistic difference and reclassification improvement for cardiovascular mortality and fatal and non-fatal cases of coronary heart disease, stroke, and heart failure in a 5 year timeframe, contrasting prediction models for traditional risk factors with and without creatinine-based eGFR, albuminuria (either albumin-to-creatinine ratio [ACR] or semi-quantitative dipstick proteinuria), or both.

FINDINGS

The addition of eGFR and ACR significantly improved the discrimination of cardiovascular outcomes beyond traditional risk factors in general populations, but the improvement was greater with ACR than with eGFR, and more evident for cardiovascular mortality (C statistic difference 0·0139 [95% CI 0·0105-0·0174] for ACR and 0·0065 [0·0042-0·0088] for eGFR) and heart failure (0·0196 [0·0108-0·0284] and 0·0109 [0·0059-0·0159]) than for coronary disease (0·0048 [0·0029-0·0067] and 0·0036 [0·0019-0·0054]) and stroke (0·0105 [0·0058-0·0151] and 0·0036 [0·0004-0·0069]). Dipstick proteinuria showed smaller improvement than ACR. The discrimination improvement with eGFR or ACR was especially evident in individuals with diabetes or hypertension, but remained significant with ACR for cardiovascular mortality and heart failure in those without either of these disorders. In individuals with chronic kidney disease, the combination of eGFR and ACR for risk discrimination outperformed most single traditional predictors; the C statistic for cardiovascular mortality fell by 0·0227 (0·0158-0·0296) after omission of eGFR and ACR compared with less than 0·007 for any single modifiable traditional predictor.

INTERPRETATION

Creatinine-based eGFR and albuminuria should be taken into account for cardiovascular prediction, especially when these measures are already assessed for clinical purpose or if cardiovascular mortality and heart failure are outcomes of interest. ACR could have particularly broad implications for cardiovascular prediction. In populations with chronic kidney disease, the simultaneous assessment of eGFR and ACR could facilitate improved classification of cardiovascular risk, supporting current guidelines for chronic kidney disease. Our results lend some support to also incorporating eGFR and ACR into assessments of cardiovascular risk in the general population.

FUNDING

US National Kidney Foundation, National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases.

The Pivotal Role of a Novel Biomarker of Reactive Oxygen Species in Chronic Kidney Disease

Risk stratification of chronic kidney disease (CKD) is clinically important because such patients are at high risk of cardiovascular events. Although reactive oxygen species (ROS) are reported to be closely associated with the pathophysiology of CKD, there are few useful ROS biomarkers known for CKD patients. Hence, our objectives in this study were to investigate whether serum derivatives of reactive oxygen metabolites (DROM), a novel biomarker of ROS, is involved in the pathophysiology of CKD (case-control study), and is a significant predictor of future cardiovascular events in CKD patients (follow-up study).Patients with suspected coronary artery disease (CAD) were enrolled and underwent coronary angiography. Patients with CKD (estimated glomerular filtration ratio <60  mL/min/1.73 m(2)  and/or proteinuria, n = 324) were compared with those without CKD (non-CKD). Serum DROM was measured at stable conditions. A case-control study of the 324 CKD patients and 263 non-CKD patients was conducted after matching risk factors, and a follow-up study of the 324 CKD patients was performed. CKD patients were divided into low- and high-DROM groups using their median value (348 unit; called the Carratelli unit [U.CARR]), and followed until the occurrence of cardiovascular events.DROM levels were significantly higher in risk factors-matched CKD patients than in risk factors-matched non-CKD patients (347.0 [301.8-391.8] U.CARR vs. 338.5 [299.8-384.3] U.CARR, P = 0.03). During mean 23 ± 14 months follow-up of 324 CKD patients, 83 cardiovascular events were recorded. Kaplan-Meier analysis demonstrated a higher probability of cardiovascular events in CKD patients with high DROM than in those with low DROM (P < 0.001, log-rank test). Multivariate Cox hazard analysis including significant predictors in simple Cox hazard analysis demonstrated that high DROM was a significant and independent predictor of cardiovascular events in CKD patients (hazard ratio: 1.76, 95% confidence interval: 1.10-2.82, P = 0.02).In conclusion, serum DROM values were significant and independent predictors of cardiovascular events in CKD patients, indicating that the measurements of DROM might provide clinical benefits for risk stratification of CKD patients.

Endothelin A receptor antagonist, atrasentan, attenuates renal and cardiac dysfunction in Dahl salt-hypertensive rats in a blood pressure independent manner

Proteinuria is a hallmark of chronic kidney disease (CKD) and cardiovascular disease (CVD), and a good predictor of clinical outcome. Selective endothelin A (ET_A) receptor antagonist used with renin-angiotensin system (RAS) inhibitors prevents development of proteinuria in CKD. However, whether the improvement in proteinuria would have beneficial effects on CVD, independent of RAS inhibition, is not well understood. In this study, we investigated whether atrasentan, an ET_A receptor antagonist, has renal and cardiovascular effects independent of RAS inhibition. Male Dahl salt sensitive (DSS) rats, at six weeks of age, received water with or without different doses of atrasentan and/or enalapril under high salt (HS) diet or normal diet (ND) for 6 weeks. At the end of 12th week, atrasentan at a moderate dose significantly attenuated proteinuria and serum creatinine without reducing mean arterial pressure (MAP), thereby preventing cardiac hypertrophy and improving cardiac function. ACE inhibitor enalapril at a dose that did not significantly lowered BP, attenuated cardiac hypertrophy while moderately improving cardiac function without reducing proteinuria and serum creatinine level. Nonetheless, combined therapy of atrasentan and enalapril that does not altering BP exerted additional cardioprotective effect. Based on these findings, we conclude that BP independent monotherapy of ET_A receptor antagonist attenuates the progression of CKD and significantly mitigates CVD independent of RAS inhibition.

Endothelial function and cardiovascular events in chronic kidney disease

BACKGROUND

As patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) are at high risk of developing coronary artery disease (CAD), it is important to stratify their cardiovascular risk. We investigated whether peripheral endothelial dysfunction is associated with the presence of CAD in patients with CKD and is a predictor of cardiovascular events.

METHODS

We enrolled 383 CKD patients with at least one coronary risk factor. Peripheral endothelial function was assessed by reactive hyperemia peripheral arterial tonometry index (RHI). The presence of CAD was determined by coronary angiography. Cardiovascular events were assessed during follow-up.

RESULTS

Ln-RHI was significantly lower in risk factor-matched CKD patients (n=323) than risk factor-matched non-CKD patients (n=323) (0.527 ± 0.192 vs. 0.580 ± 0.218, p=0.001). In CKD patients (n=383), Ln-RHI was significantly lower in CAD (0.499 ± 0.183, n=262) than non-CAD (0.582 ± 0.206, n=121) (p<0.001) patients. Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified Ln-RHI as an independent factor associated with the presence of CAD (p=0.001). During a mean follow-up period of 30 months, 90 cardiovascular events were recorded in CKD patients. Multivariate Cox hazard analysis identified low-Ln-RHI as an independent predictor of cardiovascular events (hazard ratio=2.70, 95% confidence interval=1.62-4.51, p<0.001). The predictive value of combined Ln-RHI and Framingham risk score (FRS) was evaluated by net reclassification index (NRI) and C-statistics, which showed significant improvement (NRI=22%, p<0.001) (C-statistics: FRS=0.49, FRS+Ln-RHI=0.62, p=0.005).

CONCLUSIONS

Endothelial function was significantly impaired in CKD patients and correlated with the presence of CAD. Severe endothelial dysfunction was an independent and incremental predictor of cardiovascular events in CKD.

Prevalence of ventricular arrhythmia and its associated factors in nondialyzed chronic kidney disease patients

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Sudden cardiac death is the most common cause of mortality in chronic kidney disease patients, and it occurs mostly due to ventricular arrhythmias. In this study, we aimed at investigating the prevalence of ventricular arrhythmia and the factors associated with its occurrence in nondialyzed chronic kidney disease patients.

DESIGN SETTING PARTICIPANTS AND MEASUREMENTS

This cross-sectional study evaluated 111 chronic kidney disease patients (estimated glomerular filtration rate 34.7±16.1 mL/min/1.73 m(2), 57±11.4 years, 60% male, 24% diabetics). Ventricular arrhythmia was assessed by 24-hour electrocardiogram. Left ventricular hypertrophy (echocardiogram), 24-hour ambulatory blood pressure monitoring, and coronary artery calcification (multi-slice computed tomography) and laboratory parameters were also evaluated.

RESULTS

Ventricular arrhythmia was found in 35% of the patients. Non-controlled hypertension was observed in 21%, absence of systolic decency in 29%, left ventricular hypertrophy in 27%, systolic dysfunction in 10%, and coronary artery calcification in 49%. Patients with ventricular arrhythmia were older (p<0.001), predominantly men (p = 0.009), had higher estimated glomerular filtration rate (p = 0.03) and hemoglobin (p = 0.005), and lower intact parathyroid hormone (p = 0.024) and triglycerides (p = 0.011) when compared to patients without ventricular arrhythmia. In addition, a higher left ventricular mass index (p = 0.002) and coronary calcium score (p = 0.002), and a lower ejection fraction (p = 0.001) were observed among patients with ventricular arrhythmia. In the multiple logistic regression analysis, aging, increased hemoglobin levels and reduced ejection fraction were independently related to the presence of ventricular arrhythmia.

CONCLUSIONS

Ventricular arrhythmia is prevalent in nondialyzed chronic kidney disease patients. Age, hemoglobin levels and ejection fraction were the factors associated with ventricular arrhythmia in these patients.