Trends in acute myocardial infarction hospitalization rates for US States in the CDC tracking network

Modified Shock Index as a Predictor of Admission and In-hospital Mortality in Emergency Departments; an Analysis of a US National Database

Introduction

The modified shock index (MSI) is the ratio of heart rate to mean arterial pressure. It is used as a predictive and prognostic marker in a variety of disease states. This study aimed to derive the optimal MSI cut-off that is associated with increased likelihood (likelihood ratio, LR) of admission and in-hospital mortality in patients presenting to emergency department (ED).

Methods

We retrospectively reviewed data from the National Hospital Ambulatory Medical Care Survey between 2005 and 2010. Adults>18 years of age were included regardless of chief complaint. Basic patient demographics, initial vital signs, and outcomes were recorded for each patient. Then the optimal MSI cut-off for prediction of admission and in-hospital mortality in ED was calculated. LR ≥ 5 was considered clinically significant.

Results

567,994,402 distinct weighted adult ED patient visits were included in the analysis. 15.7% and 2.4% resulted in admissions and in-hospital mortality, respectively. MSI > 1.7 was associated with a moderate increase in the likelihood of both admission (Positive LR (+LR) = 6.29) and in-hospital mortality (+LR = 5.12). +LR for hospital admission at MSI >1.7 was higher for men (7.13; 95% CI 7.11-7.15) compared to women (5.49; 95% CI 5.47-5.50) and for non-white (7.92; 95% CI 7.88-7.95) compared to white patients (5.85; 95% CI 5.84-5.86). For MSI <0.7, the +LRs were not clinically significant for admission (+LR = 1.07) or in-hospital mortality (LR = 0.75).

Conclusion

In this largest retrospective study, to date, on MSI in the undifferentiated ED population, we demonstrated that an MSI >1.7 on presentation is predictive of admission and in-hospital mortality. The use of MSI could help guide accurate acuity designation, resource allocation, and disposition.

Single center first year experience and outcomes with Impella 5.5 left ventricular assist device

Background

The Impella 5.5® was approved by the FDA for use for mechanical circulatory support up to 14 days in late 2019 at limited centers in the United States. Our single center’s experience with Impella 5.5® can expand the overall understanding for achieving successful patient outcomes as well as provide support for the expansion of its FDA-approved use.

Methods

This study is an IRB-approved single-center retrospective cohort analysis of hospitalized adult patient characteristics and outcomes in cases where the Impella 5.5® was utilized for mechanical circulatory support.

Results

A total of 26 implanted Impella 5.5® devices were identified in 24 hospitalized patients at our institution from January 2020 to January 2021. The overall survival rate during index hospitalization was 75%. Eleven Impella 5.5® devices were identified in 10 patients with an average device implantation greater than 14 days. Average device implantation for this subgroup was 27 days with a range of 15–80 days. Survival rate for Impella 5.5® use greater than 14 days was 67%. In the entire cohort and subgroup of device implantation > 14 days, evidence of end organ damage improved with Impella 5.5® use. Complications in our cohort and subgroup of device implantation > 14 days were similar to previously reported complication incidence of axillary inserted LVAD devices.

Conclusions

Our institution’s experience with the Impella 5.5® has been strongly positive with favorable outcomes and helps to establish the Impella 5.5® as a viable option for mechanical circulatory support beyond 14 days.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13019-022-01871-1.

Unplanned hospital readmissions after acute myocardial infarction: a nationwide analysis of rates, trends, predictors and causes in the United States between 2010 and 2014

BACKGROUND

Unplanned hospital readmissions are an important quality metric for benchmarking, but there are limited data following an acute myocardial infarction (AMI). This study aims to examine the 30-day unplanned readmission rate, predictors, causes and outcomes after hospitalization for AMI.

METHODS

The USA Nationwide Readmission Database was utilized to analyze patients with a primary diagnosis of AMI between 2010 and 2014. Rates of readmissions, causes and costs were determined and multiple logistic regressions were used to identify predictors of readmissions.

RESULTS

Of 2 204 104 patients with AMI, the 30-day unplanned readmission rate was 12.3% (n = 270 510), which changed from 13.0 to 11.5% between 2010 and 2014. The estimated impact of readmissions in AMI was ~718 million USD and ~281000 additional bed days per year. Comorbidities such as diabetes [odds ratio (OR) 1.27, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.25-1.29], chronic lung disease (OR 1.29, 95% CI 1.26-1.31), renal failure (OR 1.38, 95% CI 1.35-1.40) and cancer (OR 1.35, 95% CI 1.30-1.41) were independently associated with unplanned readmission. Discharge against medical advice was the variable most strongly associated with unplanned readmission (OR 2.40, 95% CI 2.27-2.54). Noncardiac causes for readmissions accounted for 52.9% of all readmissions. The most common cause of cardiac readmission was heart failure (14.3%) and for noncardiac readmissions was infections (8.8%).

CONCLUSION

Readmissions during the first month after AMI occur in more than one in 10 patients resulting in a healthcare cost of ~718 million USD per year and ~281000 additional bed days per year. These findings have important public health implications. Strategies to identify and reduce readmissions in AMI will dramatically reduce healthcare costs for society.

Trends in Hospitalization Rates, Major Causes of Hospitalization, and In-Hospital Mortality in Rheumatoid Arthritis in the United States From 2000 to 2014

Objective

To evaluate national trends in hospitalizations and in‐hospital mortality in rheumatoid arthritis (RA).

Methods

National Inpatient Sample from 2000‐2014 and United States Census data were used to study temporal trends in adult RA hospitalizations, reasons for hospitalizations, and in‐hospital mortality.

Results

The data represented 183 983 hospitalizations with a primary diagnosis of RA. The annual rates of hospitalization for the primary diagnosis of RA decreased from 76.54 admissions per 1 million in 2000 to 29.96 per 1 million in 2014 (P trend < 0.0001). The hospital mortality rate declined from 0.70% to 0.41% (P trend < 0.0001) in this group. With a primary or nonprimary diagnosis of RA, the mortality rate ranged between 1.95 and 2.87 (P trend 0.08). For a nonprimary diagnosis of RA, we noted that the proportion of hospitalizations with a diagnosis of myocardial infarction (6.4% in 2000 to 4.6% in 2014; P < 0.001) significantly decreased, but the absolute number of hospitalizations significantly increased. In contrast, the proportion and the absolute number of hospitalizations with any diagnosis of sepsis, congestive heart failure, lung disease, and urinary tract infection increased significantly. We also noted a significant increase in the actual rate and proportions for hospitalizations for hip and knee arthroplasty. Among in‐hospital deaths when RA was a nonprimary diagnosis, the most common primary diagnosis was pneumonia (12.5 %) in 2000, whereas sepsis accounted for the most deaths in 2014 (31.4%).

Conclusion

We observed that hospitalization rates and in‐hospital mortality rates in patients with RA have changed significantly over the past 15 years.

Pollution, Health, and the Moderating Role of Physical Activity Opportunities

Air and water pollution have detrimental effects on health, while physical activity opportunities have a positive relationship. The purpose of this study was to explore whether physical activity opportunities moderate the relationships among air and water pollution, and measures of health. Aggregate data were collected at the county level in the United States (n = 3104). Variables included the mean daily density of fine particle matter (air pollution), reported cases of health-related drinking water violations (water pollution), subjective ratings of poor or fair health (overall health), the number of physically and mentally unhealthy (physical and mental health, respectively), and the percentage of people living in close proximity to a park or recreation facility (access to physical activity). Air and water pollution have a significant positive effect on all measures of residents’ poor health, while physical activity opportunities only have a negative effect on overall health and physical health. Access to physical activity only moderates the relationship between air pollution and all health outcomes. Since physical activity behavior can be more rapidly changed than some causes of pollution, providing the resident population with better access to physical activity can represent an effective tool in environmental health policy.

Sociodemographic Determinants of Acute Myocardial Infarction Hospitalization Risks in Florida

Background Identifying social determinants of myocardial infarction (MI) hospitalizations is crucial for reducing/eliminating health disparities. Therefore, our objectives were to identify sociodemographic determinants of MI hospitalization risks and to assess if the impacts of these determinants vary by geographic location in Florida. Methods and Results This is a retrospective ecologic study at the county level. We obtained data for principal and secondary MI hospitalizations for Florida residents for the 2005-2014 period and calculated age- and sex-adjusted MI hospitalization risks. We used a multivariable negative binomial model to identify sociodemographic determinants of MI hospitalization risks and a geographically weighted negative binomial model to assess if the strength of associations vary by location. There were 645 935 MI hospitalizations (median age, 72 years; 58.1%, men; 73.9%, white). Age- and sex-adjusted risks ranged from 18.49 to 69.48 cases/10 000 persons, and they were significantly higher in counties with low education levels (risk ratio [RR]=1.033, P<0.0001) and high divorce rate (RR, 0.995; P=0.018). However, they were significantly lower in counties with high proportions of rural (RR, 0.996; P<0.0001), black (RR, 1.026; P=0.032), and uninsured populations (RR, 0.983; P=0.040). Associations of MI hospitalization risks with education level and uninsured rate varied geographically (P for non-stationarity test=0.001 and 0.043, respectively), with strongest associations in southern Florida (RR for <high school education, 1.036-1.041; RR for uninsured rate, 0.971-0.976). Conclusions Black race, divorce, rural residence, low education level, and lack of health insurance were significant determinants of MI hospitalization risks, but associations with the latter 2 were stronger in southern Florida. Thus, interventions for addressing MI hospitalization risks need to prioritize these populations and allocate resources based on empirical evidence from global and local models for maximum efficiency and effectiveness.

Trends in Acute Myocardial Infarction by Race and Ethnicity

Background

Trends in acute myocardial infarction (AMI) incidence rates for diverse races/ethnicities are largely unknown, presenting barriers to understanding the role of race/ethnicity in AMI occurrence.

Methods and Results

We identified AMI hospitalizations for Kaiser Permanente Southern California members, aged ≥35 years, during 2000 to 2014 using discharge diagnostic codes. We excluded hospitalizations with missing race/ethnicity information. We calculated annual incidence rates (age and sex standardized to the 2010 US census population) for AMI, ST‐segment–elevation myocardial infarction, and non–ST‐segment–elevation myocardial infarction by race/ethnicity (Hispanic and non‐Hispanic racial groups: Asian or Pacific Islander, black, and white). Using Poisson regression, we estimated annual percentage change in AMI, non–ST‐segment–elevation myocardial infarction, and ST‐segment–elevation myocardial infarction incidence by race/ethnicity and AMI incidence rate ratios between race/ethnicity pairs, adjusting for age and sex. We included 18 630 776 person‐years of observation and identified 44 142 AMI hospitalizations. During 2000 to 2014, declines in AMI, non–ST‐segment–elevation myocardial infarction, and ST‐segment–elevation myocardial infarction were 48.7%, 34.2%, and 69.8%, respectively. Age‐ and sex‐standardized AMI hospitalization rates/100 000 person‐years declined for Hispanics (from 307 to 162), Asians or Pacific Islanders (from 271 to 158), blacks (from 347 to 199), and whites (from 376 to 189). Annual percentage changes ranged from −2.99% to −4.75%, except for blacks, whose annual percentage change was −5.32% during 2000 to 2009 and −1.03% during 2010 to 2014.

Conclusions

During 2000 to 2014, AMI, non–ST‐segment–elevation myocardial infarction, and ST‐segment–elevation myocardial infarction hospitalization incidence rates declined substantially for each race/ethnic group. Despite narrowing rates among races/ethnicities, differences persist. Understanding these differences can help identify unmet needs in AMI prevention and management to guide targeted interventions.

Sex-Specific Trends in Acute Myocardial Infarction Within an Integrated Healthcare Network, 2000 Through 2014

Background:

In recent decades, the rates of incident acute myocardial infarction (AMI) have declined in the United States, yet disparities by sex remain. In an integrated healthcare delivery system, we examined temporal trends in incident AMI among women and men.

Methods:

We identified hospitalized AMI among members ≥35 years of age in Kaiser Permanente Southern California. The first hospitalization for AMI overall, and for ST-segment–elevation MI and non–ST-segment–elevation MI was identified by International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification primary discharge diagnosis codes in each calendar year from 2000 through 2014. Age- and sex-standardized incidence rates per 100 000 person-years were calculated by using direct adjustment to the 2010 US Census population. Average annual percent changes (AAPCs) and period percent changes were calculated, and trend tests were conducted using Poisson regression.

Results:

We identified 45 331 AMI hospitalizations between 2000 and 2014. Age- and sex-standardized incidence rates of AMI declined from 322.4 (95% CI, 311.0–333.9) in 2000 to 174.6 (95% CI, 168.2–181.0) in 2014, representing an AAPC of –4.4% (95% CI, –4.2 to –4.6) and a period percent change of –46.6%. The AAPC for AMI in women was –4.6% (95% CI, –4.1 to –5.2) between 2000 and 2009 and declined to –2.3% (95% CI, –1.2 to –3.4) between 2010 and 2014. The AAPC for AMI in men was stable over the study period (–4.7% [95% CI, –4.4 to –4.9]). The AAPC for ST-segment–elevation MI hospitalization overall was –8.3% (95% CI, –8.0% to –8.6%).The AAPC in ST-segment–elevation MI changed among women in 2009 (2000–2009: –10.2% [95% CI, –9.3 to –11.1] and in 2010–2014: –5.2% [95% CI, –3.1 to –7.3]) while remaining stable among men (–8.0% [95% CI, –7.6 to –8.4]). The AAPC for non–ST-segment–elevation MI hospitalization was smaller than for ST-segment–elevation MI among both women and men (–1.9% [95% CI, –1.5 to –2.3] and –2.8% [95% CI, –2.5 to –3.2], respectively).

Conclusions:

These results suggest that the incidence of hospitalized AMI declined between 2000 and 2014; however, declines in AMI have slowed among women in comparison with men in recent years. Determining unmet care needs among women may reduce these sex-based AMI disparities.

Disparities in Temporal and Geographic Patterns of Myocardial Infarction Hospitalization Risks in Florida

Knowledge of geographical disparities in myocardial infarction (MI) is critical for guiding health planning and resource allocation. The objectives of this study were to identify geographic disparities in MI hospitalization risks in Florida and assess temporal changes in these disparities between 2005 and 2014. This study used retrospective data on MI hospitalizations that occurred among Florida residents between 2005 and 2014. We identified spatial clusters of hospitalization risks using Kulldorff's circular and Tango's flexible spatial scan statistics. Counties with persistently high or low MI hospitalization risks were identified. There was a 20% decline in hospitalization risks during the study period. However, we found persistent clustering of high risks in the Big Bend region, South Central and southeast Florida, and persistent clustering of low risks primarily in the South. Risks decreased by 7%-21% in high-risk clusters and by 9%-28% in low-risk clusters. The risk decreased in the high-risk cluster in the southeast but increased in the Big Bend area during the last four years of the study. Overall, risks in low-risk clusters were ahead those for high-risk clusters by at least 10 years. Despite MI risk declining over the study period, disparities in MI risks persist. Eliminating/reducing those disparities will require prioritizing high-risk clusters for interventions.

Changing Disease Prevalence, Incidence, and Mortality Among Older Cohorts: The Health and Retirement Study

BACKGROUND

This article investigates changes in disease prevalence, incidence, and mortality among four cohorts of older persons in the Health and Retirement Study.

METHODS

We examine two cohorts initially aged 51 to 61, whom we call younger cohorts, and two older cohorts aged 70 to 80 at the start of observation. Each of the paired cohorts was born about 10 years apart. We follow the cohorts for approximately 10 years.

RESULTS

The prevalence of cancer, stroke, and diabetes increased in later-born cohorts; while the prevalence of myocardial infarction decreased markedly in both later-born cohorts. The incidence of heart disease, myocardial infarction, and stroke decreased among those in the later-born older cohort; while only the incidence of myocardial infarction decreased in the later-born younger cohort. On the other hand, diabetes incidence increased among those in both later-born cohorts. Death rates among those with heart disease, cancer, and diabetes decreased in the later-born cohorts. The declining incidence of three cardiovascular conditions among those who are over age 70 reflects improving population health and has resulted in stemming the increase in prevalence of people with heart disease and stroke.

DISCUSSION

While these results provide some important signs of improving population health, especially among those over 70; trends for those less than 70 in the United States are not as positive.

Sex-specific differences regarding seasonal variations of incidence and mortality in patients with myocardial infarction in Germany

BACKGROUND

Seasonal variation regarding the incidence and the short-term mortality of acute myocardial infarction (MI) was frequently reported, but data about sex-specific differences are sparse.

METHODS

We analysed the impact of seasons and temperature on incidence and in-hospital mortality of patients with acute MI in Germany between 2005 and 2015.

RESULTS

The nationwide sample comprised 3,008,188 hospitalizations of MI patients (2005-2015). The incidence was 334.7/100,000 citizens/year. Incidence inclined from 316.3 to 341.6/100,000 citizens/year (β 0.17 [0.10 to 0.24], P < 0.001), while in-hospital mortality rate decreased from 14.1% to 11.3% (β -0.29 [-0.30 to -0.28], P < 0.001). Overall, 377,028 (12.5%) patients died in-hospital. Seasonal variation of both incidence and in-hospital mortality was of substantial magnitude. Seasonal incidence (86.1 vs. 79.0/100,000 citizens/year, P < 0.001) and in-hospital mortality (13.2% vs. 12.1%, P < 0.001) were higher in winter than in summer. Risk to die in winter was elevated (OR 1.080 (95% CI 1.069-1.091), P < 0.001) compared to summer season independently of sex, age and comorbidities. Reperfusion treatment with drug eluting stents and coronary artery bypass graft were more often used in summer. We observed sex-specific differences regarding the seasonal variation of in-hospital mortality: males showed lowest mortality in summer, while females during fall. Low temperature dependency of mortality seems more pronounced in males.

CONCLUSION

Incidence of acute MI increased 2005-2015, while in-hospital mortality rate decreased. Seasonal variation of incidence and in-hospital mortality were of substantial magnitude with lowest incidence and lowest mortality in the summer season. Additionally, we observed sex-specific differences regarding the seasonal variation of the in-hospital mortality.

Shock index as a predictor of hospital admission and inpatient mortality in a US national database of emergency departments

STUDY OBJECTIVES

The shock index (SI), defined as the ratio of the heart rate (HR) to the systolic blood pressure (BP), is used as a prognostic tool in trauma and in specific disease states. However, there is scarcity of data about the utility of the SI in the general emergency department (ED)population. Our goal was to use a large national database of EDs in the United States (US) to determine whether the likelihood of inpatient mortality and hospital admission was associated with initial SI at presentation.

METHODS

Data from the National Hospital Ambulatory Medical Care Survey were retrospectively reviewed to obtain a weighted sample of all US ED visits between 2005 and 2010. All adults >18 years old who survived the ED visit were included, regardless of their chief complaint. Likelihood ratios (LR) were calculated for a range of SI values, in order to determine SI thresholds most predictive of hospital admission and inpatient mortality. +LRs >5 were considered to be clinically significant.

RESULTS

A total of 526 455 251 adult patient encounters were included in the analysis. 56.9% were women, 73.9% were white and 53.2% were between the ages of 18 and 44 years. 88 326 638 (15.7%) unique ED visits resulted in hospital admission and 1 927 235 (2.6%) visits resulted in inpatient mortality. SI>1.3 was associated with a clinically significant increase in both the likelihood of hospital admission (+LR=6.64) and inpatient mortality (+LR=5.67). SI>0.7 and >0.9, the traditional cited cut-offs, were only associated with marginal increases (+LR= 1.13; 1.54 for SI>0.7 and +LR=1.95; 2.59 for SI>0.9 for hospital admission and inpatient mortality, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

In this largest retrospective study to date on SI in the general ED population, we demonstrated that initial SI at presentation to the ED could potentially be useful in predicting the likelihood of hospital admission and inpatient mortality, which could help guide rapid and accurate acuity designation, resource allocation and disposition.

Time trends in the prevalence of cancer and non-cancer diseases among older U.S. adults: Medicare-based analysis

Longer lifespan is accompanied by a larger number of chronic diseases among older adults. Because of a growing proportion of older adults in the U.S., this brings the problem of age-related morbidity to the forefront as a major contributor to rising medical expenditures. We evaluated 15-year time trends (from 1998 to 2013) in the prevalence of 48 acute and chronic non-cancer diseases and cancers in older U.S. adults aged 65+ and estimated the annual percentage changes of these prevalence trends using SEER-Medicare and HRS-Medicare data. We found that age-adjusted prevalence of cancers of kidney, pancreas, and melanoma, as well as diabetes, renal disease, limb fracture, depression, anemia, weight deficiency, dementia/Alzheimer's disease, drug/medications abuse and several other diseases/conditions increased over time. Conversely, prevalence of myocardial infarction, heart failure, cardiomyopathy, pneumonia/influenza, peptic ulcer, and gastrointestinal bleeding, among others, decreased over time. There are also diseases whose prevalence did not change substantially over time, e.g., a group of fast progressing cancers and rheumatoid arthritis. Analysis of trends of multiple diseases performed simultaneously within one study design with focus on the same time interval and the same population for all diseases allowed us to provide insight into the epidemiology of these conditions and identify the most alarming and/or unexpected trends and trade-offs. The obtained results can be used for health expenditures planning for growing sector of older adults in the U.S.

Acute myocardial infarction in young women: current perspectives

Acute myocardial infarction (AMI) is the leading cause of death in women worldwide. Every year, in the USA alone, more than 30,000 young women <55 years of age are hospitalized with AMI. In recent decades, the incidence of AMI is increasing in younger women in the context of increasing metabolic syndrome, diabetes mellitus, and non-traditional risk factors such as stress, anxiety, and depression. Although women are classically considered to present with atypical chest pain, several observational data confirm that men and women experience similar rates of chest pain, with some differences in intensity, duration, radiation, and the choice of descriptors. Women also experience more number of symptoms and more prodromal symptoms compared with men. Suboptimal awareness, sociocultural and financial reasons result in pre-hospital delays in women and lower rates of access to care with resulting undertreatment with guideline-directed therapies. Causes of AMI in young women include plaque-related MI, microvascular dysfunction or vasospasm, and spontaneous coronary artery dissection. Compared with men, women have greater in-hospital, early and late mortality, as a result of baseline comorbidities. Post-AMI women have lower referral to cardiac rehabilitation with more dropouts, lower levels of physical activity, and poorer improvements in health status compared with men, with higher inflammatory levels at 1-year from index presentation. Future strategies should focus on primary and secondary prevention, adherence, and post-AMI health-related quality of life. This review discusses the current evidence in the epidemiology, diagnosis, and treatment of AMI in young women.

A Spatial Analysis of Acute Myocardial Infarction Rates in New York State in Relation to Hospitals Along State Jurisdictional Borders

INTRODUCTION

Patients experiencing acute myocardial infarction (AMI) are likely to visit the nearest hospital providing appropriate services since timely care is a critical determinant in the treatment and progression of AMI. We comparatively examined AMI rates in border and nonborder census tracts. The New York State (NYS) Environmental Public Health Tracking (EPHT) program, in conjunction with the Statewide Planning and Research Cooperative System, will work on developing memoranda of understanding with neighboring states to be able to more comprehensively access NYS residents' out-of-state health records.

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether AMI rates in the NYS border census tracts differ from AMI rates in nonborder census tracts as a preliminary exploration of the utilization of out-of-state care for acute health conditions by NYS border residents.

DESIGN

We reviewed data on inpatient and emergency department visits in NYS with discharge dates from 2005 to 2014 retrospectively. We used the NYS EPHT tier 1 system database to locate hospitals. We geocoded all cases to NYS 2010 census tracts. We mapped differences between border and nonborder tracts and analyzed resulting spatial patterns. We computed tract-level AMI rates and differences between border and nonborder AMI rates.

RESULTS

The age-adjusted AMI rates differed by 8.2 cases per 10 000 people (95% confidence interval, 6.94-12.60). Maps showed patterns of differences in AMI rates, especially along the NYS border with New England and other geographically closer out-of-state hospitals.

CONCLUSIONS

AMI rates that were geographically closer to out-of-state hospitals were lower, suggesting that people residing in border census tracts are utilizing out-of-state care. Our study adds to literature on the geographical component of health care accessibility and utilization in the context of acute conditions such as AMI and lends impetus to access out-of-state health records to better understand health care facility access and utilization for NYS residents.

Estimating cardiovascular disease incidence from prevalence: a spreadsheet based model

Background

Disease incidence and prevalence are both core indicators of population health. Incidence is generally not as readily accessible as prevalence. Cohort studies and electronic health record systems are two major way to estimate disease incidence. The former is time-consuming and expensive; the latter is not available in most developing countries. Alternatively, mathematical models could be used to estimate disease incidence from prevalence.

Methods

We proposed and validated a method to estimate the age-standardized incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD), with prevalence data from successive surveys and mortality data from empirical studies. Hallett’s method designed for estimating HIV infections in Africa was modified to estimate the incidence of myocardial infarction (MI) in the U.S. population and incidence of heart disease in the Canadian population.

Results

Model-derived estimates were in close agreement with observed incidence from cohort studies and population surveillance systems. This method correctly captured the trend in incidence given sufficient waves of cross-sectional surveys. The estimated MI declining rate in the U.S. population was in accordance with the literature. This method was superior to closed cohort, in terms of the estimating trend of population cardiovascular disease incidence.

Conclusion

It is possible to estimate CVD incidence accurately at the population level from cross-sectional prevalence data. This method has the potential to be used for age- and sex- specific incidence estimates, or to be expanded to other chronic conditions.

A Systematic Review on the Prevalence of Acute Myocardial Infarction in Iran

In Iran, cardiovascular diseases are the most common causes of death. We aimed to perform a systematic review on the prevalence of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in Iran based on Persian and English papers had been published from 1985 to 2015. Among 267 initially found articles, 142 were excluded; finally, a total number of 40 articles were found relevant which were reduced to 18. Smoking, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, and hypercholesterolemia were the most common risk factors for AMI. Premature MI prevalence was high in men, and smoking was the most common risk factor among young people. People in urban areas were more likely to experience AMI than rural people. The prevalence of AMI in Iran is high and has increased in recent years. Therefore, to restrain the rising trend of AMI, it is necessary to make the primary and secondary prevention efforts.

Current and Projected Characteristics and Unique Health Care Needs of the Patient Population Served by the Department of Veterans Affairs

The Veterans Access, Choice, and Accountability Act of 2014 addressed the need for access to timely, high-quality health care for veterans. Section 201 of the legislation called for an independent assessment of various aspects of veterans' health care. The RAND Corporation was tasked with an assessment of the current and projected demographics and health care needs of patients served by the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA). The number of U.S. veterans will continue to decline over the next decade, and the demographic mix and geographic locations of these veterans will change. While the number of veterans using VA health care has increased over time, demand will level off in the coming years. Veterans have more favorable economic circumstances than non-veterans, but they are also older and more likely to be diagnosed with many health conditions. Not all veterans are eligible for or use VA health care. Whether and to what extent an eligible veteran uses VA health care depends on a number of factors, including access to other sources of health care. Veterans who rely on VA health care are older and less healthy than veterans who do not, and the prevalence of costly conditions in this population is projected to increase. Potential changes to VA policy and the context for VA health care, including effects of the Affordable Care Act, could affect demand. Analysis of a range of data sources provided insight into how the veteran population is likely to change in the next decade.

The cost of inpatient death associated with acute coronary syndrome

Background

No studies have addressed the cost of inpatient mortality during an acute coronary syndrome (ACS) admission.

Objective

Compare ACS-related length of stay (LOS), total admission cost, and total admission cost by day of discharge/death for patients who died during an inpatient admission with a matched cohort discharged alive following an ACS-related inpatient stay.

Methods

Medical and pharmacy claims (2009–2012) were used to identify admissions with a primary diagnosis of ACS from patients with at least 6 months of continuous enrollment prior to an ACS admission. Patients who died during their ACS admission (deceased cohort) were matched (one-to-one) to those who survived (survived cohort) on age, sex, year of admission, Chronic Condition Index score, and prior revascularization. Mean LOS, total admission cost, and total admission cost by the day of discharge/death for the deceased cohort were compared with the survived cohort. A generalized linear model with log transformation was used to estimate the differences in the total expected incremental cost of an ACS admission and by the day of discharge/death between cohorts. A negative binomial model was used to estimate differences in the LOS between the two cohorts. Costs were inflated to 2013 dollars.

Results

A total of 1,320 ACS claims from patients who died (n=1,320) were identified and matched to 1,319 claims from the survived patients (n=1,319). The majority were men (68%) and mean age was 56.7±6.4 years. The LOS per claim for the deceased cohort was 47% higher (adjusted incidence rate ratio: 1.47, 95% confidence interval: 1.37–1.57) compared with claims from the survived cohort. Compared with the survived cohort, the adjusted mean incremental total cost of ACS admission claims from the deceased cohort was US$43,107±US$3,927 (95% confidence interval: US$35,411–US$50,803) higher.

Conclusion

Despite decreasing ACS hospitalizations, the economic burden of inpatient death remains high.

Trends in acute myocardial infarction hospitalizations: Are we seeing the whole picture?

BACKGROUND

Payers and policy makers rely on studies of trends in acute myocardial infarction (AMI) hospitalizations and spending that count only hospitalizations where the AMI is the principal discharge diagnosis. Hospitalizations with AMI coded as a secondary diagnosis are ignored. The effects of excluding these hospitalizations on estimates of trends are unknown.

METHODS

Observational study of all AMI hospitalizations in Fee-for-Service Medicare beneficiaries 65 years and older, from 2002 through 2011.

RESULTS

We studied 3,663,137 hospitalizations with any AMI discharge diagnosis over 288,873,509 beneficiary-years. Of these, 66% had AMI coded as principal (versus secondary). From 2002 to 2011, AMI hospitalization rates declined 24.5% (from 1,485 per 100,000 beneficiary-years in 2002 to 1,122 in 2011). Meanwhile, the proportion of these hospitalizations with a secondary AMI diagnosis increased from 28% to 40%; by 2011 these secondary AMI hospitalizations accounted for 43% of all expenditures for hospitalizations with AMI, or $2.8 billion. Major changes in comorbidities, principal diagnoses and mean costs for hospitalizations with a non-principal AMI diagnosis occurred in the 2006-2008 timeframe.

CONCLUSIONS

Current estimates of the burden of AMI ignore an increasingly large proportion of overall AMI hospitalizations and spending. Changes in the characteristics of hospitalizations that coincided with major payment and policy changes suggest that non-clinical factors affect AMI coding. Failing to consider all AMIs could inflate estimates of population health improvements, overestimate the value of AMI prevention and treatment and underestimate current and future AMI burden and expenditures.

Lifespan and Healthspan: Past, Present, and Promise

The past century was a period of increasing life expectancy throughout the age range. This resulted in more people living to old age and to spending more years at the older ages. It is likely that increases in life expectancy at older ages will continue, but life expectancy at birth is unlikely to reach levels above 95 unless there is a fundamental change in our ability to delay the aging process. We have yet to experience much compression of morbidity as the age of onset of most health problems has not increased markedly. In recent decades, there have been some reductions in the prevalence of physical disability and dementia. At the same time, the prevalence of disease has increased markedly, in large part due to treatment which extends life for those with disease. Compressing morbidity or increasing the relative healthspan will require "delaying aging" or delaying the physiological change that results in disease and disability. While moving to life expectancies above age 95 and compressing morbidity substantially may require significant scientific breakthroughs; significant improvement in health and increases in life expectancy in the United States could be achieved with behavioral, life style, and policy changes that reduce socioeconomic disparities and allow us to reach the levels of health and life expectancy achieved in peer societies.

Spatial analysis of myocardial infarction in Iran: National report from the Iranian myocardial infarction registry

Background:

Myocardial infarction (MI) is a leading cause of mortality and morbidity in Iran. No spatial analysis of MI has been conducted to date. The present study was conducted to determine the pattern of MI incidence and to identify the associated factors in Iran by province.

Materials and Methods:

This study has two parts. One part is prospective and hospital-based, and the other part is an ecological study. In this study, the data of 20,750 new MI cases registered in Iranian Myocardial Infarction Registry in 2012 were used. For spatial analysis in global and local, spatial autocorrelation, Moran's I, Getis-Ord, and logistic regression models were used. Data were analyzed by Stata software and ArcGIS 9.3.

Results:

Based on autocorrelation coefficient, a specific pattern was observed in the distribution of MI incidence in different provinces (Moran's I: 0.75, P < 0.001). Spatial pattern of incidence was approximately the same in men and women. MI incidence was clustering in six provinces (North Khorasan, Yazd, Kerman, Semnan, Golestan, and Mazandaran). Out of the associated factors with clustered MI in six provinces, temperature, humidity, hypertension, smoking, and body mass index (BMI) could be mentioned. Hypertension, smoking, and BMI contributed to clustering with, respectively, 2.36, 1.31, and 1.31 odds ratio.

Conclusion:

Addressing the place-based pattern of incidence and clarifying their epidemiologic dimension, including spatial analysis, has not yet been implemented in Iran. Report on MI incidence rate by place and formal borders is useful and is used in the planning and prioritization in different levels of health system.

Relationship between risk factors and in-hospital mortality due to myocardial infarction by educational level: a national prospective study in Iran

Introduction

Since no hospital-based, nationwide study has been yet conducted on the association between risk factors and in-hospital mortality due to myocardial infarction (MI) by educational level in Iran, the present study was conducted to investigate relationship between risk factors and in-hospital mortality due to MI by educational level.

Methods

In this nationwide hospital-based, prospective analysis, follow-up duration was from definite diagnosis of MI to death. The cohort of the patients was defined in view of the date at diagnosis, hospitalization and the date at discharge (recovery or in-hospital death due to MI). 20750 patients hospitalized for newly diagnosed MI between April, 2012 and March, 2013 comprised sample size. Totally, 2511 deaths due to MI were obtained. The data on education level (four-level) were collected based on years of schooling. To determine in-hospital mortality rate and the associated factors with mortality, seven statistical models were developed using Cox proportional hazards models.

Results

Of the studied patients, 9611 (6.1%) had no education. in-hospital mortality rate was 8.36 (95% CI: 7.81-8.9) in women and 6.12 (95% CI: 5.83-6.43) in men per 100 person-years. This rate was 5.56 in under 65-year-old patients and 8.37 in over 65-year-old patients. This rate in the patients with no, primary, high school, and academic education was respectively 8.11, 6.11, 4.85 and 5.81 per 100 person-years. Being woman, chest pain prior to arriving in hospital, lack of thrombolytic therapy, right bundle branch block, ventricular tachycardia, smoking and ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction were significantly associated with increased hazard ratio (HR) of death. The adjusted HR of mortality was 1.27 (95% CI: 1.06-1.52), 0.93 (95% CI: 0.77-1.13), 0.72 (95% CI: 0.57-0.91) and 0.82 (95% CI: 0.66-1.01) in the patients with respectively illiterate, primary, secondary and high school education compared to academic education.

Conclusion

A disparity was noted in post-MI mortality incidence in different educational levels in Iran. HR of death was higher in illiterate patients than in the patients with academic education. Identifying disparities per educational level could contribute to detecting the individuals at high risk, health promotion and care improvement by relevant planning and interventions in clinics and communities.

Trends in and disparities for acute myocardial infarction: an analysis of Medicare claims data from 1992 to 2010

BACKGROUND

It is unknown whether previously reported disparities for acute myocardial infarction (AMI) by race and sex have declined over time.

METHODS

We used Medicare Part A administrative data files for 1992 to 2010 to evaluate changes in per-capita hospitalization rates for AMI, rates of revascularization (percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) and coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG)), and 30-day mortality for four distinct patient subcohorts: black women; black men; white women; and white men, adjusted for age, comorbidities and year using logistic regression.

RESULTS

The study sample consisted of 4,045,267 AMI admissions between the years 1992 and 2010 (166,660 black women; 116,201 black men; 1,870,816 white women; 1,891,590 white men). AMI hospitalization rates differed significantly in 1992 to 1993 among black women (61.6 hospitalizations per 10,000 Medicare enrollees), black men (73.2 hospitalizations), white women (72.0 hospitalizations) and white men (113.2 hospitalizations) (P<0.0001). By 2009 to 2010 AMI hospitalization rates had declined substantially in all cohorts but disparities remained with significantly lower hospitalization rates among women and blacks compared to men and whites, respectively (P<0.0001). In multivariable-adjusted analyses, despite narrowing of the differences between cohorts over time, disparities in AMI hospitalization rates by race and sex remained statistically significant in 2009 to 2010 (P<0.001). In 1992 to 1993 and 2009 to 2010, rates of PCI within 30-days of AMI differed significantly among black women (8.6% in 1992 to 1993; 24.2% in 2009 to 2010), black men (10.4% and 32.6%), white women (12.8% and 30.5%), and white men (16.1% and 40.7%) (P<0.0001). In multivariable-adjusted analyses, racial disparities in procedure utilization appeared somewhat larger and sex-based disparities remained significant. Unadjusted 30-day mortality after AMI in 1992 to 1993 for black women, black men, white women and white men was 20.4%, 17.9%, 23.1% and 19.5%, respectively (P<0.0001); in 2009 to 2010 mortality was 17.1%, 15.3%, 18.2% and 16.2%, respectively (P<0.0001). In adjusted analyses, racial differences in mortality declined over time but differences by sex (higher mortality for women) persisted.

CONCLUSIONS

Disparities in AMI have declined modestly, but remain a problem, particularly with respect to patient sex.

Engaging academia to advance the science and practice of environmental public health tracking

Public health agencies at the federal, state, and local level are responsible for implementing actions and policies that address health problems related to environmental hazards. These actions and policies can be informed by integrating or linking data on health, exposure, hazards, and population. The mission of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention׳s National Environmental Public Health Tracking Program (Tracking Program) is to provide information from a nationwide network of integrated health, environmental hazard, and exposure data that drives actions to improve the health of communities. The Tracking Program and federal, state, and local partners collect, integrate, analyze, and disseminate data and information to inform environmental public health actions. However, many challenges exist regarding the availability and quality of data, the application of appropriate methods and tools to link data, and the state of the science needed to link and analyze health and environmental data. The Tracking Program has collaborated with academia to address key challenges in these areas. The collaboration has improved our understanding of the uses and limitations of available data and methods, expanded the use of existing data and methods, and increased our knowledge about the connections between health and environment. Valuable working relationships have been forged in this process, and together we have identified opportunities and improvements for future collaborations to further advance the science and practice of environmental public health tracking.

The effect of a statewide smoking ordinance on acute myocardial infarction rates

BACKGROUND

Public smoking ordinances may reduce acute myocardial infarction events. Most studies assessed small communities with reported reductions as high as 40%. No reduction or smaller reductions were found in countrywide studies; less is known about the impact of statewide ordinances. We previously demonstrated identical 27% reductions in acute myocardial infarction hospitalizations in 2 Colorado communities after enactment of strict smoking ordinances. Subsequently, on July 1, 2006, a statewide ordinance went into effect. We sought to determine the impact of this legislation on acute myocardial infarction hospitalization rates.

METHODS

Hospital admissions for a primary acute myocardial infarction diagnosis were examined from 2000 to 2008. Poisson regression models were fit to the monthly events from January 1, 2000, to March 31, 2008. The final model included a quadratic trend over time, harmonic terms, and a post-ordinance effect. The model was adjusted temporally for population changes, using population estimates as an offset variable.

RESULTS

A total of 58,399 unique acute myocardial infarctions were recorded during the study period. No significant reduction in acute myocardial infarction rates was observed post-ordinance (relative risk, 1.059; 95% confidence interval, 0.993-1.131). However, a steep decline in acute myocardial infarction rates was noted from 2000 to 2005 just before enactment. There were 11 strict, local smoking ordinances in effect within Colorado before enactment of the statewide ordinance. After excluding these communities, the findings were similar (relative risk, 1.038; 95% confidence interval, 0.971-1.11).

CONCLUSIONS

Although local smoking ordinances in Colorado previously suggested a reduction in acute myocardial infarction hospitalizations, no significant impact of smoke-free legislation was demonstrated at the state level, even after accounting for preexisting ordinances.