Geographical analysis of the distribution and spread of human rabies in china from 2005 to 2011

Cross-correlation and time series analysis of rabies in different animal species in Nepal from 2005 to 2018

Rabies is a fatal zoonotic disease, resulting in human and livestock deaths. In Nepal, animal rabies has posed a significant challenge to public health. Because animals are the primary source of rabies in humans, a better understanding of rabies epidemiology in animals is necessary. The objectives of this study were to determine the correlation between rabies occurrences in dogs and livestock animals and to detect the trends and change points of the disease using longitudinal data. The nationwide rabies dataset from 2005 to 2018 was analyzed using cross-correlation, multiple change points, and time series methods. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Neural Network Autoregression (NNAR) were applied to the time series data. The results show a positive correlation between canine rabies and livestock rabies occurrences. Three significant change points were detected in the time series data, demonstrating that the occurrences were high in the initial years but stabilized before peaking to an upward trend in the final years of the study period. Nonetheless, there was no seasonality pattern in rabies occurrences. The most suitable models were ARIMA (2,1,2) and NNAR (5,1,4) (12). Based on the study findings, both locals and tourists in Nepal need to have enhanced awareness of the potential dangers posed by rabies in canines and livestock. This study offers much-needed insight into the patterns and epidemiology of animal rabies which will be helpful for policymakers in drafting rabies control plans for Nepal.

Progress towards dog-mediated rabies elimination in PR China: a scoping review

BACKGROUND

Rabies continues to be a serious threat to global public health endangering people's health and public health safety. In the People's Republic of China, multi-sectoral and comprehensive prevention and control strategies have aimed to extensively curb human rabies transmission. Here, we examine the current state of rabies infection in China, explore strategic interventions put in place in response to WHO's ambition of "Zero rabies deaths by 2030" and critically assess the constraints and feasibility of dog-mediated rabies elimination in China.

METHODS

This study analyzed and evaluated the process towards dog-mediated rabies elimination in China from five perspectives: namely, human, dog, policy, challenge, and prospects. Evidence-based data on progress of dog-mediated rabies elimination in China was derived from a number of sources; a literature search was undertaken using PubMed, Web of Science and CNKI databases, distribution data for human rabies cases as derived from the Data-center of the China Public Health Science and policy and document data were obtained from official websites of the relevant China ministries and commissions.

RESULTS

The incidence of human rabies cases in China have shown a downward trend year-on-year since 2007. Implementation of a government-led, multi-sectoral "One Health" approach to combating rabies has driven down the total number of rabies deaths nationwide to around 200 in 2020. The number of provincial-level administrative divisions (PLADs) reporting human cases of rabies has also decreased to 21 in 2020, 13 of which reported less than 10 cases. Furthermore, the number of outpatient visits seeking rabies post-exposure prophylaxis has risen dramatically over the past two decades, with demand being 15 times higher than it was initially. There remain however, significant gaps in rabies elimination outcomes across the different regions of China. To date the target of achieving a canine rabies vaccination rate of > 75% has not been met. The challenges of rabies immunization of dogs and dog management in underdeveloped cities and rural areas need to be addressed together with more effective animal surveillance and rabies risk from and too wildlife and livestock.

CONCLUSIONS

The Chinese government-led, multi-sectoral "One Health" approach to combating rabies and has made significant progress over the past decade. Development and adoption of more cost-effective One Health strategies can achieve more nationally beneficial rabies elimination outcomes. The ambitious target of "Zero rabies deaths by 2030" can be met through establishment of long-lasting herd immunity in dogs by means of dog mass vaccination campaigns, dog population management, epidemiological surveillance and the application of large-scale oral rabies vaccine to eliminate rabies in wild animals coupled with deployment of cost-effective human post-exposure prophylaxis, and community education.

A Descriptive Analysis of Human Rabies in Mainland China, 2005-2020

Epidemiological characteristics of human rabies in mainland China, 2005-2020 were analyzed to evaluate the effect of rabies control in China in recent years. A total of 24,319 human rabies cases were recorded in 2097 counties in 321 cities of 31 provinces in mainland China. Only 202 cases, located in 143 counties, were recorded in 2020, compared with 3305 cases in 992 counties in 2007; however, rabies was still relatively severe in Hunan Province even in 2020. Peak periods occurred in July-November; August was often the month with the most cases. Guizhou, Hunan, Guangdong, and Guangxi Provinces, in the central and southern regions, accounted for 50.0% of the cases in 2005-2020. Cases occurred almost exclusively in rural areas with 96.7% versus 3.3% in urban areas. A paradoxical relative expansion from southern, eastern, and central towards southwestern, northwestern, northern, and northeastern regions was observed along with the overall reduction of cases. Some regions witnessed complete elimination. The male-to-female ratio was 2.33:1; 66.8% of all cases were reported in the 0-10 (13.8%) and 41-70 (53.0%) age groups. Farmers (68.3%), followed by students (12.2), and diaspora children (6.5%) were most frequently involved. Our results provide objective information for the improvement of rabies prevention and control efforts. This will aid policymakers in China and elsewhere achieve the "Zero human deaths from dog-mediated rabies by 2030" global goal.

Spatial and temporal dynamic analysis of rabies: A review of current methodologies

Rabies continues to be one of the deadliest, high risk diseases worldwide, posing a severe threat to public health. The lack of human-to-human transmission means that the spread of rabies is not significantly affected by the distribution of humans or migra- tion. Thus, the spatiotemporal dynamic of cases in both wild and domestic animals is an important issue that can result in human cases. This paper gives an overview of the methodologies for the spatial and temporal dynamic analysis of this disease. It introduces the most representative research progress of spatial aggregation, dynamic transmission, spatiotemporal distribution, epidemiologi- cal analysis and application of modelling in the study of rabies transmission in recent years. This overview should be useful for investigating the spatial and temporal dynamics of rabies, as it could help understanding the spread of cases as well as contribute to the development of better prevention and control strategies in ecology and epidemiology.

Small-scale spatiotemporal epidemiology of notifiable infectious diseases in China: a systematic review

Background

The prevalence of infectious diseases remains one of the major challenges faced by the Chinese health sector. Policymakers have a tremendous interest in investigating the spatiotemporal epidemiology of infectious diseases. We aimed to review the small-scale (city level, county level, or below) spatiotemporal epidemiology of notifiable infectious diseases in China through a systematic review, thus summarizing the evidence to facilitate more effective prevention and control of the diseases.

Methods

We searched four English language databases (PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane Library, and Web of Science) and three Chinese databases (CNKI, WanFang, and SinoMed), for studies published between January 1, 2004 (the year in which China’s Internet-based disease reporting system was established) and December 31, 2021. Eligible works were small-scale spatial or spatiotemporal studies focusing on at least one notifiable infectious disease, with the entire territory of mainland China as the study area. Two independent reviewers completed the review process based on the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines.

Results

A total of 18,195 articles were identified, with 71 eligible for inclusion, focusing on 22 diseases. Thirty-one studies (43.66%) were analyzed using city-level data, 34 (47.89%) were analyzed using county-level data, and six (8.45%) used community or individual data. Approximately four-fifths (80.28%) of the studies visualized incidence using rate maps. Of these, 76.06% employed various spatial clustering methods to explore the spatial variations in the burden, with Moran’s I statistic being the most common. Of the studies, 40.85% explored risk factors, in which the geographically weighted regression model was the most commonly used method. Climate, socioeconomic factors, and population density were the three most considered factors.

Conclusions

Small-scale spatiotemporal epidemiology has been applied in studies on notifiable infectious diseases in China, involving spatiotemporal distribution and risk factors. Health authorities should improve prevention strategies and clarify the direction of future work in the field of infectious disease research in China.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12879-022-07669-9.

How Spatial Epidemiology Helps Understand Infectious Human Disease Transmission

Both directly and indirectly transmitted infectious diseases in humans are spatial-related. Spatial dimensions include: distances between susceptible humans and the environments shared by people, contaminated materials, and infectious animal species. Therefore, spatial concepts in managing and understanding emerging infectious diseases are crucial. Recently, due to the improvements in computing performance and statistical approaches, there are new possibilities regarding the visualization and analysis of disease spatial data. This review provides commonly used spatial or spatial-temporal approaches in managing infectious diseases. It covers four sections, namely: visualization, overall clustering, hot spot detection, and risk factor identification. The first three sections provide methods and epidemiological applications for both point data (i.e., individual data) and aggregate data (i.e., summaries of individual points). The last section focuses on the spatial regression methods adjusted for neighbour effects or spatial heterogeneity and their implementation. Understanding spatial-temporal variations in the spread of infectious diseases have three positive impacts on the management of diseases. These are: surveillance system improvements, the generation of hypotheses and approvals, and the establishment of prevention and control strategies. Notably, ethics and data quality have to be considered before applying spatial-temporal methods. Developing differential global positioning system methods and optimizing Bayesian estimations are future directions.

Spatio-temporal epidemiology of animal and human rabies in northern South Africa between 1998 and 2017

Background

Rabies is a fatal zoonotic disease that is maintained in domestic dogs and wildlife populations in the Republic of South Africa. A retrospective study was conducted to improve understanding of the dynamics of rabies in humans, domestic dogs, and wildlife species, in relation to the ecology for three northern provinces of South Africa (Limpopo, Mpumalanga, and North-West) between 1998 and 2017.

Methods

A descriptive epidemiology study was conducted for human and animal rabies. Dog rabies cases were analyzed using spatio-temporal scan statistics. The reproductive number (R_t) was estimated for the identified disease clusters. A phylogenetic tree was constructed based on the genome sequences of rabies viruses isolated from dogs, jackals, and an African civet, and Bayesian evolutionary analysis using a strict time clock model. Several ecological and socio-economic variables associated with dog rabies were modeled using univariate analyses with zero-inflated negative binomial regression and multivariable spatial analyses using the integrated nested Laplace approximation for two time periods: 1998–2002 and 2008–2012.

Results

Human rabies cases increased in 2006 following an increase in dog rabies cases; however, the human cases declined in the next year while dog rabies cases fluctuated. Ten disease clusters of dog rabies were identified, and utilizing the phylogenetic tree, the dynamics of animal rabies over 20 years was elucidated. In 2006, a virus strain that re-emerged in eastern Limpopo Province caused the large and persistent dog rabies outbreaks in Limpopo and Mpumalanga Provinces. Several clusters included a rabies virus variant maintained in jackals in Limpopo Province, and the other variant in dogs widely distributed. The widely distributed variant maintained in jackal populations in North-West Province caused an outbreak in dogs in 2014. The R_t was high when the disease clusters were associated with either multiple virus strains or multiple animal species. High-risk areas included Limpopo and Mpumalanga Provinces characterized by woodlands and high temperatures and precipitation.

Conclusion

Canine rabies was maintained mainly in dog populations but was also associated with jackal species. Rural communities in Limpopo and Mpumalanga Provinces were at high risk of canine rabies originating from dogs.

Rabies is a fatal zoonotic disease transmitted primarily via bites by animals infected with the rabies virus. The majority of human cases occur due to the exposure to infected domestic dogs. In the Republic of South Africa, rabies is endemic, and domestic dogs, mongooses, bat-eared foxes, and jackals are the main reservoir hosts. Rabies control efforts typically target domestic dog populations, as it is difficult to monitor and control in wildlife species. Jackals are known to sustain infection cycles with domestic dogs. This study was conducted to improve understanding of the spatial and temporal dynamics of rabies in human, domestic dogs, and wildlife, in relation to ecology and socio-economics in northern South Africa. Human cases occurred where disease clusters in dogs were identified. Large size outbreaks in dogs were caused by dog rabies virus variants, but disease clusters included multiple virus variants in multiple host species. Rural communities in Limpopo and Mpumalanga Provinces, characterized by woodlands and high temperatures and precipitation, were at high risk of canine rabies originating from dogs.

Knowledge, attitudes and practices regarding to rabies and its prevention and control among bite victims by suspected rabid animals in China

Rabies is a major public health problem and the incidence of suspected rabid animal bites remains high in China. This study aimed to assess the knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAP) about rabies of bite victims in Wuhan, China. A cross-sectional study was conducted among 1015 bite victims visiting rabies prevention clinics. We performed a face-to-face interview to investigate the rabies KAP of these victims using a self-designed questionnaire. Factors associated with the KAP were evaluated using logistic regression models. Only 56.85% of respondents knew that rabies is infectious. More than 20% of respondents thought that it is not necessary to vaccinate dogs and cats against rabies usually. About 70% of participants stated that they never need to be reminded to vaccinate when they were bitten. Lower education level (odds ratio [OR] = 3.77, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.65-5.38 for secondary school or less and OR = 1.74, 95% CI: 1.28-2.38 for high school or vocational school, p-trend<0.0001) was independently associated with poor knowledge of rabies. Respondents who had experienced two or more times of animal bites (OR = 0.62, 95% CI: 0.39-0.97) were inclined to have appropriate attitudes about rabies prevention and control. Older respondents were more likely to show proper behaviors towards rabies prevention and control (OR = 0.44, 95% CI: 0.33-0.58 for age group 31-60 and OR = 0.34, 95% CI: 0.21-0.54 for age group >60, p-trend <0.0001). The level of rabies KAP among bite victims in China was suboptimal. It is necessary to conduct interventions focusing on improving public awareness of rabies and ameliorating behaviors of rabies post-exposure prophylaxis.

Wild animal and zoonotic disease risk management and regulation in China: Examining gaps and One Health opportunities in scope, mandates, and monitoring systems

Emerging diseases of zoonotic origin such as COVID-19 are a continuing public health threat in China that lead to a significant socioeconomic burden. This study reviewed the current laws and regulations, government reports and policy documents, and existing literature on zoonotic disease preparedness and prevention across the forestry, agriculture, and public health authorities in China, to articulate the current landscape of potential risks, existing mandates, and gaps. A total of 55 known zoonotic diseases (59 pathogens) are routinely monitored under a multi-sectoral system among humans and domestic and wild animals in China. These diseases have been detected in wild mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians, and fish or other aquatic animals, the majority of which are transmitted between humans and animals via direct or indirect contact and vectors. However, this current monitoring system covers a limited scope of disease threats and animal host species, warranting expanded review for sources of disease and pathogen with zoonotic potential. In addition, the governance of wild animal protection and utilization and limited knowledge about wild animal trade value chains present challenges for zoonotic disease risk assessment and monitoring, and affect the completeness of mandates and enforcement. A coordinated and collaborative mechanism among different departments is required for the effective monitoring and management of disease emergence and transmission risks in the animal value chains. Moreover, pathogen surveillance among wild animal hosts and human populations outside of the routine monitoring system will fill the data gaps and improve our understanding of future emerging zoonotic threats to achieve disease prevention. The findings and recommendations will advance One Health collaboration across government and non-government stakeholders to optimize monitoring and surveillance, risk management, and emergency responses to known and novel zoonotic threats, and support COVID-19 recovery efforts.

On the Use of Phylogeographic Inference to Infer the Dispersal History of Rabies Virus: A Review Study

Rabies is a neglected zoonotic disease which is caused by negative strand RNA-viruses belonging to the genus Lyssavirus. Within this genus, rabies viruses circulate in a diverse set of mammalian reservoir hosts, is present worldwide, and is almost always fatal in non-vaccinated humans. Approximately 59,000 people are still estimated to die from rabies each year, leading to a global initiative to work towards the goal of zero human deaths from dog-mediated rabies by 2030, requiring scientific efforts from different research fields. The past decade has seen a much increased use of phylogeographic and phylodynamic analyses to study the evolution and spread of rabies virus. We here review published studies in these research areas, making a distinction between the geographic resolution associated with the available sequence data. We pay special attention to environmental factors that these studies found to be relevant to the spread of rabies virus. Importantly, we highlight a knowledge gap in terms of applying these methods when all required data were available but not fully exploited. We conclude with an overview of recent methodological developments that have yet to be applied in phylogeographic and phylodynamic analyses of rabies virus.

Human rabies: prospects for elimination

Almost half of all countries in the world are effectively free of human deaths from dog-mediated rabies. But the disease still affects people in low- and middle-income countries, especially the rural poor, and children. Successful regional elimination of human rabies is attributable to advances in significant and sustained investment in dog vaccination, post-exposure vaccination and surveillance, illustrated by productive efforts to reduce human rabies in Latin America over the last 35 years. Nonetheless, countries still facing endemic rabies face significant barriers to elimination. Using the 2017 Global Strategic Plan to end human rabies deaths from dog-mediated rabies by 2030 as a reference point and an organizing framework, we assess progress toward global rabies elimination by examining the characteristics of successful regional control efforts and barriers to elimination. Although substantive barriers exist for countries where rabies remains endemic, advances in knowledge, technology, institutions, and economics provide a basis for optimism.

Where and when to vaccinate? Interdisciplinary design and evaluation of the 2018 Tanzanian anti-rabies campaign

OBJECTIVES

Hoping to improve health-related effectiveness, a two-phase vaccination against rabies was designed and executed in northern Tanzania in 2018, which included geo-epidemiological and economic perspectives.

METHODS

Considering the local bio-geography and attempting to rapidly establish a protective ring around a city at risk, the first phase intervened on sites surrounding that city, where the population density was lower than in the city at risk. The second phase vaccinated a rural area.

RESULTS

No rabies-related case has been reported in the vaccinated areas for over a year post-immunisation; hence, the campaign is viewed as highly cost-effective. Other metrics included: rapid implementation (concluded in half the time spent on other campaigns) and the estimated cost per protected life, which was 3.28 times lower than in similar vaccinations.

CONCLUSIONS

The adopted design emphasised local bio-geographical dynamics: it prevented the occurrence of an epidemic in a city with a higher demographic density than its surrounding area and it also achieved greater effectiveness than average interventions. These interdisciplinary, policy-oriented experiences have broad and immediate applications in settings of limited and/or time-sensitive (expertise, personnel, and time available to intervene) resources and conditions.

The reemergence of human rabies and emergence of an Indian subcontinent lineage in Tibet, China

Coordinated surveillance, vaccination and public information efforts have brought the Chinese rabies epizootic under control, but significant numbers of fatalities are still reported annually with some cases occurring in previously rabies free regions. Tibet has remained virtually rabies free for 16 years, but since 2015 one human rabies case has been reported each year. To better understand the origins of these cases, we sequenced three human samples and an additional sample isolated from a dog in 2012. Three genomes were sequenced from brain samples: human case 1 (reported in 2015), human case 3 (2017), and the 2012 dog case. For human case 2 (2016), the rabies N gene was sequenced from a limited saliva sample. Phylogenetic analysis shows that Case 1 (CXZ1501H) and the dog case (CXZ1201D) belong to China IV lineage (equivalent to Arctic-like-2 in global rabies), suggesting an association with a wildlife spillover event. However, Case 2 (CXZ1601H) is placed within the dominant lineage China I, and was most similar with recent strains from neighboring Yunnan province, indicating the current epizootic has finally reached Tibet. Most surprisingly however, was the finding that Case 3 (CXZ1704H) is distinct from other Chinese isolates. This isolate is placed in the Indian Subcontinent clade, similar to recent Nepal strains, indicating that cross-border transmission is a new source for rabies infections. Thus, the complex mixture of the rabies epizootic in Tibet represents a major new challenge for Tibet and national rabies control.

The role of socioeconomic and climatic factors in the spatio-temporal variation of human rabies in China

BACKGROUND

Rabies is a significant public health problem in China. Previous spatial epidemiological studies have helped understand the epidemiology of animal and human rabies in China. However, quantification of effects derived from relevant factors was insufficient and complex spatial interactions were not well articulated, which may lead to non-negligible bias. In this study, we aimed to quantify the role of socio-economic and climate factors in the spatial distribution of human rabies to support decision making pertaining to rabies control in China.

METHODS

We conducted a multivariate analysis of human rabies in China with explicit consideration for spatial heterogeneity and spatial dependence effects. The panel of 20,368 cases reported between 2005 and 2013 and their socio-economic and climate factors was implemented in regression models. Several significant covariates were extracted, including the longitude, the average temperature, the distance to county center, the distance to the road network and the distance to the nearest rabies case. The GMM was adopted to provide unbiased estimation with respect to heterogeneity and spatial autocorrelation.

RESULTS

The analysis explained the inferred relationships between the counts of cases aggregated to 271 spatially-defined cells and the explanatory variables. The results suggested that temperature, longitude, the distance to county centers and the distance to the road network are positively associated with the local incidence of human rabies while the distance to newly occurred rabies cases has a negative correlation. With heterogeneity and spatial autocorrelation taken into consideration, the estimation of regression models performed better.

CONCLUSIONS

It was found that climatic and socioeconomic factors have significant influence on the spread of human rabies in China as they continuously affect the living environments of humans and animals, which critically impacts on how timely local citizens can gain access to post-exposure prophylactic services. Moreover, through comparisons between traditional regression models and the aggregation model that allows for heterogeneity and spatial effects, we demonstrated the validity and advantage of the aggregation model. It outperformed the existing models and decreased the estimation bias brought by omission of the spatial heterogeneity and spatial dependence effects. Statistical results are readily translated into public health policy takeaways.

Mass vaccination has led to the elimination of rabies since 2014 in South Korea

PURPOSE

Rabies is one of the most fatal diseases, but it is 100% preventable in animals by vaccination. In this study, we present the epidemiological features of, and national preventive measures against, rabies in Korea.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Data related to rabies and the population density of raccoon dogs in Korea were collected from the Animal and Plant Quarantine Agency, the Korean Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and the National Institute of Environmental Research. Rabies diagnosis was confirmed with a fluorescent antibody test using brain samples of animals in accordance with the procedures described by the World Organization for Animal Health. Serological assays for dogs and cattle were conducted using the fluorescent antibody virus neutralization test.

RESULTS

From 1993 to 2016, a total of seven human rabies cases and 437 animal rabies cases in five different species were reported. An increase in the distribution of bait vaccine seemed to be related to a dramatic decrease in rabies prevalence in endemic rabies regions. Two Korean provinces and the capital city, Seoul, were involved in rabies outbreaks. Korean rabies strains are most closely related to the eastern Chinese strain belonging to the Arctic-like lineage. The yearly seropositive rates ranged from 50.4% to 81.2% in dogs and from 25% to 60.5% in cattle residing in endemic rabies regions.

CONCLUSION

This study indicates that national preventive measures, including mass vaccination and distribution of bait vaccines, have contributed to a substantial decrease in the number of rabies cases in Korea.

Characterization of the epidemiology of bat-borne rabies in Chile between 2003 and 2013

Rabies is a zoonotic disease of great impact to public health. According to the World Health Organization, the country of Chile is currently declared free from human rabies transmitted by dogs. An epidemiological characterization and description was conducted using rabies data from 2003 to 2013 held by the National Program for Prevention and Control of Rabies from the Ministry of Health, consisting of bats samples reported as suspect and samples taken by active surveillance (bats brain tissue). Spatial autocorrelation analysis was performed using Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA) statistics, particularly Moran's I index, for the detection of spatial clusters. Temporal descriptive analysis was also carried out. Nine hundred and twenty-seven positive cases were reported, presenting an average of 84 cases per year, mainly originated from passive surveillance (98.5%), whilst only 1.5% of cases were reported by active surveillance. Global positivity for the study period was 7.02% and 0.1% in passive and active surveillance respectively. Most of the cases were reported in the central zone of Chile (88.1%), followed by south zone (9.1%) and north zone (2.8%). At a regional level, Metropolitana (40.6%), Valparaíso (19.1%) and Maule (11.8%) regions reported the majority of the cases. Tadarida brasiliensis (92%) presented the majority of the cases reported, with viral variant 4 (82%) being most commonly diagnosed. Only two cases were detected in companion animals. The central zone presented a positive spatial autocorrelation (Moran's I index=0.1537, 95% CI=0.1141-0.1933; p-value=0.02); north and south zones returned non-significant results (Moran's I index=0.0517 and -0.0117, 95% CI=-0.0358-0.1392 and -0.0780-0.0546, and p-values=0.21 and 0.34 respectively). The number of rabies cases decreased between May and August (late fall and winter) and tended to increase during the hot season (December to March), confirmed with the evidence from Autocorrelation analysis and the Ljun-Box test (X²=234.85 and p-value<0.0001). Knowledge of animal rabies epidemiologic behaviour becomes relevant when designing prevention and control measures and surveillance programs. This is especially important considering the high impact to Public Health of this disease and that wildlife rabies in bats remains endemic in Chile.

Modeling the transmission dynamics and control of rabies in China

Human rabies was first recorded in ancient China in about 556 BC and is still one of the major public-health problems in China. From 1950 to 2015, 130,494 human rabies cases were reported in Mainland China with an average of 1977 cases per year. It is estimated that 95% of these human rabies cases are due to dog bites. The purpose of this article is to provide a review about the models, results, and simulations that we have obtained recently on studying the transmission of rabies in China. We first construct a basic susceptible, exposed, infectious, and recovered (SEIR) type model for the spread of rabies virus among dogs and from dogs to humans and use the model to simulate the human rabies data in China from 1996 to 2010. Then we modify the basic model by including both domestic and stray dogs and apply the model to simulate the human rabies data from Guangdong Province, China. To study the seasonality of rabies, in Section 4 we further propose a SEIR model with periodic transmission rates and employ the model to simulate the monthly data of human rabies cases reported by the Chinese Ministry of Health from January 2004 to December 2010. To understand the spatial spread of rabies, in Section 5 we add diffusion to the dog population in the basic SEIR model to obtain a reaction-diffusion equation model and determine the minimum wave speed connecting the disease-free equilibrium to the endemic equilibrium. Finally, in order to investigate how the movement of dogs affects the geographically inter-provincial spread of rabies in Mainland China, in Section 6 we propose a multi-patch model to describe the transmission dynamics of rabies between dogs and humans and use the two-patch submodel to investigate the rabies virus clades lineages and to simulate the human rabies data from Guizhou and Guangxi, Hebei and Fujian, and Sichuan and Shaanxi, respectively. Some discussions are provided in Section 7.

Community-based interventions to enhance knowledge, protective attitudes and behaviors towards canine rabies: results from a health communication intervention study in Guangxi, China

BACKGROUND

In China canine rabies poses a serious public health problem in that human mortality ranks the second highest globally. While rabies health education interventions are advocated by WHO to be critical components of modern rabies control and prevention programs, available studies have not adequately investigated the relative efficacy of their implementation in at-risk populations. This study aims to measure and compare the effect on knowledge and protective behavior towards rabies of health education interventions that include a novel Short Messaging Service via cell phone (SMS) and rabies health information sessions (IS).

METHODS

The study used a between-subject design involving repeated measures of rabies-related KAP (knowledge, attitude and practice). A total of 350 randomly selected villagers were randomly allocated into three intervention (SMS, IS and SMS + IS) and one control group. The content of SMS and IS covered topics about rabies prevention and route of transmission. The SMS intervention consisted of ten separate messages delivered three times two weeks after the pretest; the IS intervention was conducted once immediately after the pretest. A validated questionnaire was used to capture demographic information and KAP information. Ordinary Least Squares regression was used to contrast the effects of interventions.

RESULTS

Our results indicate that overall SMS outperforms IS at improving knowledge and protective behavior against rabies. Our results suggest that a combined intervention of SMS and IS can result in higher scores than any of the two in isolation. The impact of SMS, IS and SMS + IS is greatest on knowledge, followed by attitude and practice scores.

CONCLUSION

This study demonstrated that health communication modes based on SMS, IS and a combination of the two are all effective to improve rabies-related KAP in the short term. These findings highlight the potential usefulness of SMS as an additional tool for public health communication and promotion; further studies are needed to investigate the long term benefits of these interventions on the reduction of dog bites and resulting human rabies incidence.

Human Rabies in China, 1960-2014: A Descriptive Epidemiological Study

Background

Rabies in China remains a public health problem. In 2014, nearly one thousand rabies-related deaths were reported while rabies geographic distribution has expanded for the recent years. This report used surveillance data to describe the epidemiological characteristics of human rabies in China including determining high-risk areas and seasonality to support national rabies prevention and control activities.

Methods

We analyzed the incidence and distribution of human rabies cases in mainland China using notifiable surveillance data from 1960–2014, which includes a detailed analysis of the recent years from 2004 to 2014.

Results

From 1960 to 2014, 120,913 human rabies cases were reported in mainland China. The highest number was recorded in 1981(0.7/100,000; 7037 cases), and in 2007(0.3/100,000; 3300 cases). A clear seasonal pattern has been observed with a peak in August (11.0% of total cases), Human rabies cases were reported in all provinces with a yearly average of 2198 from 1960 to 2014 in China, while the east and south regions were more seriously affected compared with other regions. From2004 to 2014, although the number of cases decreased by 65.2% since 2004 from 2651 to 924 cases, reported areas has paradoxically expanded from 162 prefectures to 200 prefectures and from southern to the central and northern provinces of China. Farmers accounted most of the cases (65.0%); 50–59 age group accounted for the highest proportion (20.5%), and cases are predominantly males with a male-to-female ratio of 2.4:1 on average.

Conclusions

Despite the overall steady decline of cases since the peak in 2007, the occurrence of cases in new areas and the spread trend were obvious in China in recent years. Further investigations and efforts are warranted in the areas have high rabies incidence to control rabies by interrupting transmission from dogs to humans and in the dog population. Furthermore, elimination of rabies should be eventually the ultimate goal for China.

China is a high-risk environment for rabies, with human rabies cases second only to India globally. This paper reviews 55 years of rabies epidemiology in mainland China, and detailed analysis of data in recent years. In this study, notifiable surveillance data were analyzed and found that rabies still remains a serious public health problem in China, the east and south regions were more seriously affected compared with other regions, however, the occurrence of cases in new areas and the spread trend were obvious in China in recent years. Moreover, males in rural areas had higher risk of infection than residents in urban areas, a clear seasonal pattern has been observed with a peak in August. These findings indicated a clear need to increase government and public consciousness with regard to the potential risk of rabies and the means of avoiding the disease. Further efforts should be strengthen specially in the high spot areas.

Geographical Analysis for Detecting High-Risk Areas for Bovine/Human Rabies Transmitted by the Common Hematophagous Bat in the Amazon Region, Brazil

Background

The common hematophagous bat, Desmodus rotundus, is one of the main wild reservoirs of rabies virus in several regions in Latin America. New production practices and changed land use have provided environmental features that have been very favorable for D. rotundus bat populations, making this species the main transmitter of rabies in the cycle that involves humans and herbivores. In the Amazon region, these features include a mosaic of environmental, social, and economic components, which together creates areas with different levels of risk for human and bovine infections, as presented in this work in the eastern Brazilian Amazon.

Methodology

We geo-referenced a total of 175 cases of rabies, of which 88% occurred in bovines and 12% in humans, respectively, and related these cases to a number of different geographical and biological variables. The spatial distribution was analyzed using the Kernel function, while the association with independent variables was assessed using a multi-criterion Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) technique.

Findings

The spatiotemporal analysis of the occurrence of rabies in bovines and humans found reduction in the number of cases in the eastern state of Pará, where no more cases were recorded in humans, whereas high infection rates were recorded in bovines in the northeastern part of the state, and low rates in the southeast. The areas of highest risk for bovine rabies are found in the proximity of rivers and highways. In the case of human rabies, the highest concentration of high-risk areas was found where the highway network coincides with high densities of rural and indigenous populations.

Conclusion

The high-risk areas for human and bovine rabies are patchily distributed, and related to extensive deforested areas, large herds of cattle, and the presence of highways. These findings provide an important database for the generation of epidemiological models that could support the development of effective prevention measures and controls.

Animal-associated exposure to rabies virus among travelers, 1997-2012

No demographic characteristics identified who might benefit most from pretravel counseling.

Among travelers, rabies cases are rare, but animal bites are relatively common. To determine which travelers are at highest risk for rabies, we studied 2,697 travelers receiving care for animal-related exposures and requiring rabies postexposure prophylaxis at GeoSentinel clinics during 1997–2012. No specific demographic characteristics differentiated these travelers from other travelers seeking medical care, making it challenging to identify travelers who might benefit from reinforced pretravel rabies prevention counseling. Median travel duration was short for these travelers: 15 days for those seeking care after completion of travel and 20 days for those seeking care during travel. This finding contradicts the view that preexposure rabies vaccine recommendations should be partly based on longer travel durations. Over half of exposures occurred in Thailand, Indonesia, Nepal, China, and India. International travelers to rabies-endemic regions, particularly Asia, should be informed about potential rabies exposure and benefits of pretravel vaccination, regardless of demographics or length of stay.

Global epidemiology of canine rabies: past, present, and future prospects

The rabies virus, a public health scourge from ancient times, is currently responsible for an estimated 59,000 human deaths a year, almost all transmitted via dog bites. It causes considerable economic impacts on developing countries, primarily in Africa and Asia, which can least afford these losses. However, despite its almost 100% case fatality rate, canine rabies is a completely preventable disease, and historic examples of canine rabies elimination in the developed world attest to this. Over the last decade, programs based on eliminating the source of the disease from dogs have shown success in reducing the public health burden of canine rabies in developing countries, notably across Latin America, and this has contributed to the growing evidence base necessary to change attitudes toward the feasibility of global canine rabies elimination. More recently, assessments of the current economic burden of canine rabies and the potential cost savings achievable through mass dog vaccinations have been added to this evidence base. Tools and support are available from the international community to help countries move progressively toward canine rabies elimination, and there is optimism that global freedom from canine rabies can be achieved within the next few decades.

Human rabies in Zhejiang Province, China

OBJECTIVES

To explore the epidemiological characteristics of human rabies in Zhejiang Province, China.

METHODS

Descriptive and statistical analyses were performed using data collected through interview with human rabies cases or their relatives during 2007 to 2014. A standardized questionnaire was used to collect the data.

RESULTS

Two hundred and one cases of human rabies were diagnosed in Zhejiang Province between 2007 and 2014, with a gradually declining annual incidence. Of the rabies cases identified, 61.2% were aged 40-65 years, and the male to female ratio was 2.30:1; 63.7% of cases occurred in the summer and autumn. The two most reported occupations were farmer (69.2%) and rural laborer (15.4%). Wenzhou, Jinhua, and Huzhou were the three cities with the most reported cases. The majority of cases (92.8%) were attributed to canines, and 71.0% of animal vectors were household animals. Less than half of the cases (41.4%) sought wound treatment after exposure. Post-exposure passive immunization was given to 9.7% and active immunization to 2.3%. Cases with a wound on the head/face only had a significantly shorter incubation than those with wounds at other sites (p<0.05); cases with a wound on the hand only had a significantly shorter incubation than those with a wound on the lower limb below the knee only (p<0.001). Non-resident cases were significantly younger (p<0.001) and had a shorter disease duration (p=0.015) than locally resident cases.

CONCLUSIONS

The majority of rabies cases occurred among 40-65-year-old male residents of northern, mid-west, and southeast Zhejiang Province. Further health education is needed to increase the coverage of post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) in people exposed to possible rabid animals and rabies vaccine use in household animals.

Modeling the geographic spread of rabies in China

In order to investigate how the movement of dogs affects the geographically inter-provincial spread of rabies in Mainland China, we propose a multi-patch model to describe the transmission dynamics of rabies between dogs and humans, in which each province is regarded as a patch. In each patch the submodel consists of susceptible, exposed, infectious, and vaccinated subpopulations of both dogs and humans and describes the spread of rabies among dogs and from infectious dogs to humans. The existence of the disease-free equilibrium is discussed, the basic reproduction number is calculated, and the effect of moving rates of dogs between patches on the basic reproduction number is studied. To investigate the rabies virus clades lineages, the two-patch submodel is used to simulate the human rabies data from Guizhou and Guangxi, Hebei and Fujian, and Sichuan and Shaanxi, respectively. It is found that the basic reproduction number of the two-patch model could be larger than one even if the isolated basic reproduction number of each patch is less than one. This indicates that the immigration of dogs may make the disease endemic even if the disease dies out in each isolated patch when there is no immigration. In order to reduce and prevent geographical spread of rabies in China, our results suggest that the management of dog markets and trades needs to be regulated, and transportation of dogs has to be better monitored and under constant surveillance.

The spatiotemporal expansion of human rabies and its probable explanation in mainland China, 2004-2013

BACKGROUND

Human rabies is a significant public health concern in mainland China. However, the neglect of rabies expansion and scarce analyses of the dynamics have made the spatiotemporal spread pattern of human rabies and its determinants being poorly understood.

METHODS

We collected geographic locations and timeline of reported human rabies cases, rabies sequences and socioeconomic variables for the years 2004-2013, and integrated multidisciplinary approaches, including epidemiological characterization, hotspots identification, risk factors analysis and phylogeographic inference, to explore the spread pattern of human rabies in mainland China during the last decade.

RESULTS

The results show that human rabies distribution and hotspots were expanding from southeastern regions to north or west regions, which could be associated with the evolution of the virus, especially the clade I-G. A Panel Poisson Regression analysis reveals that human rabies incidences had significant correlation with the education level, GDP per capita, temperature at one-month lag and canine rabies outbreak at two-month lag.

CONCLUSIONS

The reduction in the overall human rabies incidence was accompanied by a westward and northward expansion of the circulating region in mainland China. Higher risk of human rabies was associated with lower level of education and economic status. New clades of rabies, especial Clade I-G, played an important role in recent spread. Our findings provide valuable information for rabies control and prevention in the future.

Delimiting areas of endemism through kernel interpolation

We propose a new approach for identification of areas of endemism, the Geographical Interpolation of Endemism (GIE), based on kernel spatial interpolation. This method differs from others in being independent of grid cells. This new approach is based on estimating the overlap between the distribution of species through a kernel interpolation of centroids of species distribution and areas of influence defined from the distance between the centroid and the farthest point of occurrence of each species. We used this method to delimit areas of endemism of spiders from Brazil. To assess the effectiveness of GIE, we analyzed the same data using Parsimony Analysis of Endemism and NDM and compared the areas identified through each method. The analyses using GIE identified 101 areas of endemism of spiders in Brazil GIE demonstrated to be effective in identifying areas of endemism in multiple scales, with fuzzy edges and supported by more synendemic species than in the other methods. The areas of endemism identified with GIE were generally congruent with those identified for other taxonomic groups, suggesting that common processes can be responsible for the origin and maintenance of these biogeographic units.

Characterization of a virulent dog-originated rabies virus affecting more than twenty fallow deer (Dama dama) in Inner Mongolia, China

Rabies has emerged as a serious problem in the most recent years in northern China. A rabies virus (RABV) isolate, IMDRV-13, was recovered from brain samples of dog-bitten rabid fallow deer (Dama dama) in a farm in Hohhot, Inner Mongolia. We tested the susceptibility of mouse neuroblastoma (MNA) cells and BSR cells as well as that of adult mice to IMDRV-13. The isolate was found to be a virulent isolate with an equivalent pathogenicity index (0.12) and a slight lower neurotropism index (1.07) compared with those of challenge virus standard, CVS-24, which was 0.13 and 1.23, respectively. The complete genome of IMDRV-13 was determined subsequently and found to be 11,924 nucleotides (nt) in length with the same genomic organization as other RABVs. Phylogenetic tree based on complete genome sequences of 43 RABV isolates and strains indicated that IMDRV-13, along with other two isolates in Inner Mongolia, CNM1101C and CNM1104D, clustered within the dog-associated China I clade, which is also the dominant lineage in the current rabies epidemic in China. In addition, sequence analysis of the glycoprotein G identified an amino acid substitution (I338→T338) unique to the IMDRV-13 within antigenic sites III (330-338), this mutation also leads to an additional potential N-glycosylation site (N336), which may represent a useful model to study relationship of N-glycosylation in G protein and specific properties such as pathogenicity or host adaption of RABV.