Predicting the vulnerability of great apes to disease: the role of superspreaders and their potential vaccination

Comparative approaches in social network ecology

Social systems vary enormously across the animal kingdom, with important implications for ecological and evolutionary processes such as infectious disease dynamics, anti-predator defence, and the evolution of cooperation. Comparing social network structures between species offers a promising route to help disentangle the ecological and evolutionary processes that shape this diversity. Comparative analyses of networks like these are challenging and have been used relatively little in ecology, but are becoming increasingly feasible as the number of empirical datasets expands. Here, we provide an overview of multispecies comparative social network studies in ecology and evolution. We identify a range of advancements that these studies have made and key challenges that they face, and we use these to guide methodological and empirical suggestions for future research. Overall, we hope to motivate wider publication and analysis of open social network datasets in animal ecology.

Social networks and the conservation of fish

Despite our critical dependence on aquatic wildlife, we lack a complete understanding of the drivers of population stability and structure for most fish species. Social network analysis has been increasingly used to investigate animal societies as it explicitly links individual decision-making to population-level processes and demography. While the study of social structure is of great ecological interest, it is also potentially important for species of economic value or of conservation concern. To date however, there has been little focus on how social processes are likely to influence the conservation of fish populations. Here we identify applications for how a social network approach can help address broad fish conservation themes such as population structure, biological invasions or fisheries management. We discuss the burgeoning opportunities offered and challenges still faced by current technologies to integrate social network approaches within fish conservation.

Trait-Based Vaccination of Individual Meerkats (Suricata suricatta) against Tuberculosis Provides Evidence to Support Targeted Disease Control

Simple Summary

There is evidence to show that, within a population, some individuals are more likely to spread infections than others. When trying to protect a population against infection, most strategies aim to vaccinate as many individuals as possible. However, vaccinating wildlife is difficult because individuals are difficult to find and capture. For wildlife therefore, the ideal strategy would involve targeting vaccinations at those individuals most likely to transmit infection, thus gaining maximum benefit from capturing a small number of individuals. Whilst this seems a very attractive solution, very few studies have attempted to provide evidence to support this theory. This study focuses on a population of meerkats with a history of tuberculosis. Previous work has suggested that socially dominant individuals are most likely to transmit infection, with subordinates most likely to become infected. Therefore, whilst some social groups were left untreated as a baseline, in others, either dominants or subordinates were vaccinated. All groups were monitored for two years, after which time the infection data was analysed. Groups in which vaccinations had been used showed reduced infection rates suggesting that the targeted approach had reduced transmission. A targeted approach may therefore offer an efficient option for vaccinating wildlife in the future.

Abstract

Individuals vary in their potential to acquire and transmit infections, but this fact is currently underexploited in disease control strategies. We trialled a trait-based vaccination strategy to reduce tuberculosis in free-living meerkats by targeting high-contact meerkats (socially dominant individuals) in one study arm, and high-susceptibility individuals (young subordinates) in a second arm. We monitored infection within vaccinated groups over two years comparing the results with untreated control groups. Being a member of a high-contact group had a protective effect on individuals’ survival times (Hazard Ratio = 0.5, 95% Confidence Interval, CI: 0.29–0.88, p = 0.02) compared to control groups. Over the study, odds of testing positive for tuberculosis increased more than five-fold in control groups (Odds Ratio = 5.40, 95% CI = 0.94–30.98, p = 0.058); however, no increases were observed in either of the treatment arms. Targeted disease control approaches, such as the one described in this study, allow for reduced numbers of interventions. Here, trait-based vaccination was associated with reduced infection rates and thus has the potential to offer more efficient alternatives to traditional mass-vaccination policies. Such improvements in efficiency warrant further study and could make infectious disease control more practically achievable in both animal (particularly wildlife) and human populations.

Disease Risk and Conservation Implications of Orangutan Translocations

Critically Endangered orangutans are translocated in several situations: reintroduced into historic range where no wild populations exist, released to reinforce existing wild populations, and wild-to-wild translocated to remove individuals from potentially risky situations. Translocated orangutans exposed to human diseases, including Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), pose risks to wild and previously released conspecifics. Wildlife disease risk experts recommended halting great ape translocations during the COVID-19 pandemic to minimize risk of disease transmission to wild populations. We collected data on orangutan releases and associated disease risk management in Indonesia during the COVID-19 pandemic, and developed a problem description for orangutan disease and conservation risks. We identified that at least 15 rehabilitated ex-captive and 27 wild captured orangutans were released during the study period. Identified disease risks included several wild-to-wild translocated orangutans in direct contact or proximity to humans without protective equipment, and formerly captive rehabilitated orangutans that have had long periods of contact and potential exposure to human diseases. While translocation practitioners typically employ mitigation measures to decrease disease transmission likelihood, these measures cannot eliminate all risk, and are not consistently applied. COVID-19 and other diseases of human origin can be transmitted to orangutans, which could have catastrophic impacts on wild orangutans, other susceptible fauna, and humans should disease transmission occur. We recommend stakeholders conduct a Disease Risk Analysis for orangutan translocation, and improve pathogen surveillance and mitigation measures to decrease the likelihood of potential outbreaks. We also suggest refocusing conservation efforts on alternatives to wild-to-wild translocation including mitigating human-orangutan interactions, enforcing laws and protecting orangutan habitats to conserve orangutans in situ.

'Keeping the kids at home' can limit the persistence of contagious pathogens in social animals

Social networks are considered to be 'highly modular' when individuals within one module are more connected to each other than they are to individuals in other modules. It is currently unclear how highly modular social networks influence the persistence of contagious pathogens that generate lifelong immunity in their hosts when between-group interactions are age dependent. This trait occurs in social species with communal nurseries, where juveniles are reared together for a substantial period in burrows or similar forms of containment and are thus in isolation from contact with individuals in other social groups. Our main objective was to determine whether, and to what extent, such age-dependent patterns of between-group interactions consistently increased the fade-out probability of contagious pathogens that generate lifelong immunity in their hosts. We hypothesised that in populations of species where juveniles are raised in communal nurseries, a high proportion of recovered adults in a group would form a 'protective barrier' around susceptible juveniles against pathogen transmission, thereby increasing the probability of epidemic fade-out in the population. To test this idea, we implemented a spatially implicit individual-based susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model for a large range of generic host and pathogen traits. Our results indicated that (a) the probability of epidemic fade-out was consistently higher in populations with communal nurseries, especially for highly contagious pathogens (high basic reproduction number, R₀ ) and (b) communal nurseries can counteract the cost of group living in terms of infection risk to a greater extent than variation in other traits. We discuss our findings in relation to herd immunity and outline the importance of considering the network structure of a given host population before implementing management measures such as vaccinations, since interventions focused on individuals with high between-group contact should be particularly effective for controlling pathogen spread in hosts with communal nurseries.

Social Network Predicts Exposure to Respiratory Infection in a Wild Chimpanzee Group

Respiratory pathogens are expected to spread through social contacts, but outbreaks often occur quickly and unpredictably, making it challenging to simultaneously record social contact and disease incidence data, especially in wildlife. Thus, the role of social contacts in the spread of infectious disease is often treated as an assumption in disease simulation studies, and few studies have empirically demonstrated how pathogens spread through social networks. In July-August 2015, an outbreak of respiratory disease was observed in a wild chimpanzee community in Kibale National Park, Uganda, during an ongoing behavioral study of male chimpanzees, offering a rare opportunity to evaluate how social behavior affects individual exposure to socially transmissible diseases. From May to August 2015, we identified adult and adolescent male chimpanzees displaying coughs and rhinorrhea and recorded 5-m proximity data on males (N = 40). Using the network k-test, we found significant relationships between male network connectivity and the distribution of cases within the network, supporting the importance of short-distance contacts for the spread of the respiratory outbreak. Additionally, chimpanzees central to the network were more likely to display clinical signs than those with fewer connections. Although our analyses were limited to male chimpanzees, these findings underscore the value of social connectivity data in predicting disease outcomes and elucidate a potential evolutionary cost of being social.

Sociosexual behavioral patterns involving nulliparous female orangutans (Pongo sp.) reflect unique challenges during the adolescent period

The primate adolescent period is characterized by a series of changes in physiology, behavior, and social relationships. Orangutans have the slowest life history and the longest period of dependency of all primates. As members of a semisolitary species with high levels of sexual coercion, adolescent female orangutans face a unique combination of challenges when achieving independence from their mother. This study examined the mating behavior of adolescent female orangutans and compared it with that of adult females to assess whether mating behavior reflects distinct strategies at these different points in the life cycle. Data were collected in Gunung Palung National Park on the island of Borneo over 20 years. Mating events from adolescent (n = 19) and adult females (n = 26) were scored and compared. Adolescent female mating events had significantly higher mating scores (indicating more proceptivity) than those of adult females (β = 1.948, p = .001). Adolescent females also engaged in elaborate sociosexual interactions with different flanged males, behaviors that were never observed during mating events of adult females. These interactions involved characteristic behavior on the part of both the adolescent females and the flanged males. Given these findings and the documentation of similar accounts of adolescent female-flanged male mating from the island of Sumatra, we propose that adolescent female orangutans display distinctive behavioral repertoires throughout the genus Pongo which serves to overcome male ambivalence toward nulliparous females, establish familiarity, and evaluate coercive tendencies in flanged males. We suggest that these behavioral patterns are an integral part of female social development in a female philopatric, but highly dispersed species where consistent social support is absent after ranging independence is achieved.

Optimizing syndromic health surveillance in free ranging great apes: the case of Gombe National Park

1. Syndromic surveillance is an incipient approach to early wildlife disease detection. Consequently, systematic assessments are needed for methodology validation in wildlife populations. 2. We evaluated the sensitivity of a syndromic surveillance protocol for respiratory disease detection among chimpanzees in Gombe National Park, Tanzania. Empirical health, behavioural and demographic data were integrated with an agent-based, network model to simulate disease transmission and surveillance. 3. Surveillance sensitivity was estimated as 66% (95% Confidence Interval: 63.1, 68.8%) and 59.5% (95% Confidence Interval: 56.5%, 62.4%) for two monitoring methods (weekly count and prevalence thresholds, respectively), but differences among calendar quarters in outbreak size and surveillance sensitivity suggest seasonal effects. 4. We determined that a weekly detection threshold of ≥2 chimpanzees with clinical respiratory disease leading to outbreak response protocols (enhanced observation and biological sampling) is an optimal algorithm for outbreak detection in this population. 5. Synthesis and applications. This is the first quantitative assessment of syndromic surveillance in wildlife, providing a model approach to detecting disease emergence. Coupling syndromic surveillance with targeted diagnostic sampling in the midst of suspected outbreaks will provide a powerful system for detecting disease transmission and understanding population impacts.

Implications of Tourist-Macaque Interactions for Disease Transmission

During wildlife tourism, proximity or actual contact between people and animals may lead to a significant risk of anthropozoonotic disease transmission. In this paper, we use social network analysis, disease simulation modelling and data on animal health and behaviour to investigate such risks at a site in Morocco, where tourists come to see wild Barbary macaques (Macaca sylvanus). Measures of individual macaques' network centrality-an index of the strength and distribution of their social relationships and thus potentially their ability to spread disease-did not show clear and consistent relationships with their time spent in close proximity to, or rate of interacting with, tourists. Disease simulation modelling indicated that while higher-ranked animals had a significantly greater ability to spread disease within the group, in absolute terms there was little difference in the size of outbreaks that different individuals were predicted to cause. We observed a high rate of physical contact and close proximity between humans and macaques, including during three periods when the macaques were coughing and sneezing heavily, highlighting the potential risk of disease transmission. We recommend that general disease prevention strategies, such as those aimed at reducing opportunities for contact between tourists and macaques, should be adopted.

Making New Connections: Insights from Primate-Parasite Networks

Social interactions are important in everyday life for primates and many other group-living animals; however, these essential exchanges also provide opportunities for parasites to spread through social groups. Network analysis is a unique toolkit for studying pathogen transmission in a social context, and recent primate-parasite network studies shed light on linkages between behavior and infectious disease dynamics, providing insights for conservation and public health. We review existing literature on primate-parasite networks, examining determinants of infection risk, issues of network scale and temporal dynamics, and applications for disease control. We also discuss analytical and conceptual gaps that should be addressed to improve our understanding of how individual and group-level factors affect infection risk, while highlighting interesting areas for future research.

Modeling infection transmission in primate networks to predict centrality-based risk

Social structure can theoretically regulate disease risk by mediating exposure to pathogens via social proximity and contact. Investigating the role of central individuals within a network may help predict infectious agent transmission as well as implement disease control strategies, but little is known about such dynamics in real primate networks. We combined social network analysis and a modeling approach to better understand transmission of a theoretical infectious agent in wild Japanese macaques, highly social animals which form extended but highly differentiated social networks. We collected focal data from adult females living on the islands of Koshima and Yakushima, Japan. Individual identities as well as grooming networks were included in a Markov graph-based simulation. In this model, the probability that an individual will transmit an infectious agent depends on the strength of its relationships with other group members. Similarly, its probability of being infected depends on its relationships with already infected group members. We correlated: (i) the percentage of subjects infected during a latency-constrained epidemic; (ii) the mean latency to complete transmission; (iii) the probability that an individual is infected first among all group members; and (iv) each individual's mean rank in the chain of transmission with different individual network centralities (eigenvector, strength, betweenness). Our results support the hypothesis that more central individuals transmit infections in a shorter amount of time and to more subjects but also become infected more quickly than less central individuals. However, we also observed that the spread of infectious agents on the Yakushima network did not always differ from expectations of spread on random networks. Generalizations about the importance of observed social networks in pathogen flow should thus be made with caution, since individual characteristics in some real world networks appear less relevant than they are in others in predicting disease spread. Am. J. Primatol. 78:767-779, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Network-based vaccination improves prospects for disease control in wild chimpanzees

Many endangered wildlife populations are vulnerable to infectious diseases for which vaccines exist; yet, pragmatic considerations often preclude large-scale vaccination efforts. These barriers could be reduced by focusing on individuals with the highest contact rates. However, the question then becomes whether targeted vaccination is sufficient to prevent large outbreaks. To evaluate the efficacy of targeted wildlife vaccinations, we simulate pathogen transmission and control on monthly association networks informed by behavioural data from a wild chimpanzee community (Kanyawara N = 37, Kibale National Park, Uganda). Despite considerable variation across monthly networks, our simulations indicate that targeting the most connected individuals can prevent large outbreaks with up to 35% fewer vaccines than random vaccination. Transmission heterogeneities might be attributed to biological differences among individuals (e.g. sex, age, dominance and family size). Thus, we also evaluate the effectiveness of a trait-based vaccination strategy, as trait data are often easier to collect than interaction data. Our simulations indicate that a trait-based strategy can prevent large outbreaks with up to 18% fewer vaccines than random vaccination, demonstrating that individual traits can serve as effective estimates of connectivity. Overall, these results suggest that fine-scale behavioural data can help optimize pathogen control efforts for endangered wildlife.

A new approach for monitoring ebolavirus in wild great apes

BACKGROUND

Central Africa is a "hotspot" for emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) of global and local importance, and a current outbreak of ebolavirus is affecting multiple countries simultaneously. Ebolavirus is suspected to have caused recent declines in resident great apes. While ebolavirus vaccines have been proposed as an intervention to protect apes, their effectiveness would be improved if we could diagnostically confirm Ebola virus disease (EVD) as the cause of die-offs, establish ebolavirus geographical distribution, identify immunologically naïve populations, and determine whether apes survive virus exposure.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Here we report the first successful noninvasive detection of antibodies against Ebola virus (EBOV) from wild ape feces. Using this method, we have been able to identify gorillas with antibodies to EBOV with an overall prevalence rate reaching 10% on average, demonstrating that EBOV exposure or infection is not uniformly lethal in this species. Furthermore, evidence of antibodies was identified in gorillas thought previously to be unexposed to EBOV (protected from exposure by rivers as topological barriers of transmission).

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Our new approach will contribute to a strategy to protect apes from future EBOV infections by early detection of increased incidence of exposure, by identifying immunologically naïve at-risk populations as potential targets for vaccination, and by providing a means to track vaccine efficacy if such intervention is deemed appropriate. Finally, since human EVD is linked to contact with infected wildlife carcasses, efforts aimed at identifying great ape outbreaks could have a profound impact on public health in local communities, where EBOV causes case-fatality rates of up to 88%.