Transmission of chronic wasting disease in Wisconsin white-tailed deer: implications for disease spread and management

The establishment of a collaborative surveillance program with indigenous hunters to characterize primate health in Southern Guyana

The consumption of primates is integral to the traditional subsistence strategies of many Indigenous communities throughout Amazonia. Understanding the overall health of primates harvested for food in the region is critical to Indigenous food security and thus, these communities are highly invested in long-term primate population health. Here, we describe the establishment of a surveillance comanagement program among the Waiwai, an Indigenous community in the Konashen Amerindian Protected Area (KAPA). To assess primate health in the KAPA, hunters performed field necropsies on primates harvested for food and tissues collected from these individuals were analyzed using histopathology. From 2015 to 2019, hunters conducted 127 necropsies across seven species of primates. Of this sample, 82 primates (between 2015 and 2017) were submitted for histopathological screening. Our histopathology data revealed that KAPA primates had little evidence of underlying disease. Of the tissue abnormalities observed, the majority were either due to diet (e.g., hepatocellular pigment), degenerative changes resulting from aging (e.g., interstitial nephritis, myocyte lipofusion), or nonspecific responses to antigenic stimulation (renal and splenic lymphoid hyperplasia). In our sample, 7.32% of individuals had abnormalities that were consistent with a viral etiology, including myocarditis and hepatitis. Internal parasites were observed in 53.66% of individuals and is consistent with what would be expected from a free-ranging primate population. This study represents the importance of baseline data for long-term monitoring of primate populations hunted for food. More broadly, this research begins to close a critical gap in zoonotic disease risk related to primate harvesting in Amazonia, while also demonstrating the benefits of partnering with Indigenous hunters and leveraging hunting practices in disease surveillance and primate population health assessment.

Identifying Potential Super-Spreaders and Disease Transmission Hotspots Using White-Tailed Deer Scraping Networks

White-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus, WTD) spread communicable diseases such the zoonotic coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, which is a major public health concern, and chronic wasting disease (CWD), a fatal, highly contagious prion disease occurring in cervids. Currently, it is not well understood how WTD are spreading these diseases. In this paper, we speculate that "super-spreaders" mediate disease transmission via direct social interactions and indirectly via body fluids exchanged at scrape sites. Super-spreaders are infected individuals that infect more contacts than other infectious individuals within a population. In this study, we used network analysis from scrape visitation data to identify potential super-spreaders among multiple communities of a rural WTD herd. We combined local network communities to form a large region-wide social network consisting of 96 male WTD. Analysis of WTD bachelor groups and random network modeling demonstrated that scraping networks depict real social networks, allowing detection of direct and indirect contacts, which could spread diseases. Using this regional network, we model three major types of potential super-spreaders of communicable disease: in-degree, out-degree, and betweenness potential super-spreaders. We found out-degree and betweenness potential super-spreaders to be critical for disease transmission across multiple communities. Analysis of age structure revealed that potential super-spreaders were mostly young males, less than 2.5 years of age. We also used social network analysis to measure the outbreak potential across the landscape using a new technique to locate disease transmission hotspots. To model indirect transmission risk, we developed the first scrape-to-scrape network model demonstrating connectivity of scrape sites. Comparing scrape betweenness scores allowed us to locate high-risk transmission crossroads between communities. We also monitored predator activity, hunting activity, and hunter harvests to better understand how predation influences social networks and potential disease transmission. We found that predator activity significantly influenced the age structure of scraping communities. We assessed disease-management strategies by social-network modeling using hunter harvests or removal of potential super-spreaders, which fragmented WTD social networks reducing the potential spread of disease. Overall, this study demonstrates a model capable of predicting potential super-spreaders of diseases, outlines methods to locate transmission hotspots and community crossroads, and provides new insight for disease management and outbreak prevention strategies.

Optimal risk-based allocation of disease surveillance effort for clustered disease outbreaks

Designing a disease surveillance program to detect a disease is challenging when animals are organized into herds, in part because disease cases are likely to be clustered. Clustered diseases are often surveilled using two-stage sampling, which allocates tests both among herds and within herds. Finding the optimal allocation of tests is computationally difficult, so some surveillance programs simply seek an approximate solution. We developed a search algorithm to find the optimal allocation of tests by iteratively searching for adjustments to the test allocation that yielded marginal improvements in system sensitivity. We digitally generated 21 herds of various sizes, evenly divided among three regions that differed in relative risk. We then analyzed 29 scenarios that differed in disease and testing characteristics. We also analyzed a Chronic Wasting Disease (CWD) surveillance effort for 23 elk game management units of various sizes that were spread across three regions in Arizona, USA. We compared our marginal sensitivity approach to two other strategies for approximating the optimal distribution of tests: allocating the same number of tests to all herds selected for testing, and allocating tests so that all herds selected for testing achieve the same sensitivity. Across analysis scenarios, we found that low prevalence, high relative risk, a small budget, or high overhead costs were best addressed by concentrating tests in large, high-risk herds. When we expect multiple herds to be infected, the optimal allocation of tests depended on how we expected the cases to be distributed. Across the analyzed scenarios, our marginal sensitivity approach was most efficient, with alternative strategies requiring 0-228 % more tests to achieve the same sensitivity. For CWD in Arizona, we found the potential to double system sensitivity, given a population design prevalence of 0.16 %, from 35.8 % to 70.5 %, although social and budgetary considerations would likely constrain changes to the current allocation of tests. The marginal sensitivity approach we developed has the potential to improve disease surveillance, especially when a population includes a limited number of herds that differ in size. An important limitation of our approach is that computer runtimes could become unacceptably long for a population with many herds.

Agricultural land use shapes dispersal in white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus)

BACKGROUND

Dispersal is a fundamental process to animal population dynamics and gene flow. In white-tailed deer (WTD; Odocoileus virginianus), dispersal also presents an increasingly relevant risk for the spread of infectious diseases. Across their wide range, WTD dispersal is believed to be driven by a suite of landscape and host behavioral factors, but these can vary by region, season, and sex. Our objectives were to (1) identify dispersal events in Wisconsin WTD and determine drivers of dispersal rates and distances, and (2) determine how landscape features (e.g., rivers, roads) structure deer dispersal paths.

METHODS

We developed an algorithmic approach to detect dispersal events from GPS collar data for 590 juvenile, yearling, and adult WTD. We used statistical models to identify host and landscape drivers of dispersal rates and distances, including the role of agricultural land use, the traversability of the landscape, and potential interactions between deer. We then performed a step selection analysis to determine how landscape features such as agricultural land use, elevation, rivers, and roads affected deer dispersal paths.

RESULTS

Dispersal predominantly occurred in juvenile males, of which 64.2% dispersed, with dispersal events uncommon in other sex and age classes. Juvenile male dispersal probability was positively associated with the proportion of the natal range that was classified as agricultural land use, but only during the spring. Dispersal distances were typically short (median 5.77 km, range: 1.3-68.3 km), especially in the fall. Further, dispersal distances were positively associated with agricultural land use in potential dispersal paths but negatively associated with the number of proximate deer in the natal range. Lastly, we found that, during dispersal, juvenile males typically avoided agricultural land use but selected for areas near rivers and streams.

CONCLUSION

Land use-particularly agricultural-was a key driver of dispersal rates, distances, and paths in Wisconsin WTD. In addition, our results support the importance of deer social environments in shaping dispersal behavior. Our findings reinforce knowledge of dispersal ecology in WTD and how landscape factors-including major rivers, roads, and land-use patterns-structure host gene flow and potential pathogen transmission.

A call to action: Standardizing white-tailed deer harvest data in the Midwestern United States and implications for quantitative analysis and disease management

Recreational hunting has been the dominant game management and conservation mechanism in the United States for the past century. However, there are numerous modern-day issues that reduce the viability and efficacy of hunting-based management, such as fewer hunters, overabundant wildlife populations, limited access, and emerging infectious diseases in wildlife. Quantifying the drivers of recreational harvest by hunters could inform potential management actions to address these issues, but this is seldom comprehensively accomplished because data collection practices limit some analytical applications (e.g., differing spatial scales of harvest regulations and harvest data). Additionally, managing large-scale issues, such as infectious diseases, requires collaborations across management agencies, which is challenging or impossible if data are not standardized. Here we discuss modern issues with the prevailing wildlife management framework in the United States from an analytical point of view with a case study of white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in the Midwest. We have four aims: (1) describe the interrelated processes that comprise hunting and suggest improvements to current data collections systems, (2) summarize data collection systems employed by state wildlife management agencies in the Midwestern United States and discuss potential for large-scale data standardization, (3) assess how aims 1 and 2 influence managing infectious diseases in hunted wildlife, and (4) suggest actionable steps to help guide data collection standards and management practices. To achieve these goals, Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources disseminated a questionnaire to state wildlife agencies (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Ohio, Wisconsin), and we report and compare their harvest management structures, data collection practices, and responses to chronic wasting disease. We hope our “call to action” encourages re-evaluation, coordination, and improvement of harvest and management data collection practices with the goal of improving the analytical potential of these data. A deeper understanding of the strengths and deficiencies of our current management systems in relation to harvest and management data collection methods could benefit the future development of comprehensive and collaborative management and research initiatives (e.g., adaptive management) for wildlife and their diseases.

CAUSE OF DEATH, PATHOLOGY, AND CHRONIC WASTING DISEASE STATUS OF WHITE-TAILED DEER (ODOCOILEUS VIRGINIANUS) MORTALITIES IN WISCONSIN, USA

White-tailed deer (WTD; Odocoileus virginianus) are a critical species for ecosystem function and wildlife management. As such, studies of cause-specific mortality among WTD have long been used to understand population dynamics. However, detailed pathological information is rarely documented for free-ranging WTD, especially in regions with a high prevalence of chronic wasting disease (CWD). This leaves a significant gap in understanding how CWD is associated with disease processes or comorbidities that may subsequently alter broader population dynamics. We investigated unknown mortalities among collared WTD in southwestern Wisconsin, USA, an area of high CWD prevalence. We tested for associations between CWD and other disease processes and used a network approach to test for co-occurring disease processes. Predation and infectious disease were leading suspected causes of death, with high prevalence of CWD (42.4%; of 245 evaluated) and pneumonia (51.2%; of 168 evaluated) in our sample. CWD prevalence increased with age, before decreasing among older individuals, with more older females than males in our sample. Females were more likely to be CWD positive, and although this was not statistically significant when accounting for age, females were significantly more likely to die with end-stage CWD than males and may consequently be an underrecognized source of CWD transmission. Presence of CWD was associated with emaciation, atrophy of marrow fat and hematopoietic cells, and ectoparasitism (lice and ticks). Occurrences of severe infectious disease processes clustered together (e.g., pneumonia, CWD), as compared to noninfectious or low-severity processes (e.g., sarcocystosis), although pneumonia cases were not fully explained by CWD status. With the prevalence of CWD increasing across North America, our results highlight the critical importance of understanding the potential role of CWD in favoring or maintaining disease processes of importance for deer population health and dynamics.

Evaluating the ability of a locally focused culling program in removing chronic wasting disease infected free-ranging white-tailed deer in Illinois, USA, 2003-2020

In northern Illinois, chronic wasting disease (CWD) was first identified in free-ranging white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus; hereafter referred to as "deer") in 2002. To reduce CWD transmission rates in Illinois, wildlife biologists have conducted locally focussed culling of deer since 2003 in areas where CWD has been detected. We used retrospective spatial, temporal and space-time scan statistical models to identify areas and periods where culling removed higher than expected numbers of CWD-positive deer. We included 490 Public Land Survey "sections" (∼2.59 km² ) from 15 northern Illinois counties in which at least one deer tested positive for CWD between 2003 and 2020. A negative binomial regression model compared the proportion of CWD positive cases removed from sections with at least one CWD case detected in the previous years, "local area 1 (L1)," to the proportion of CWD cases in adjacent sections-L2, L3, and L4-designated by their increasing distance from L1. Of the 14,661 deer removed and tested via culling, 325 (2.22 %) were CWD-positive. A single temporal CWD cluster occurred in 2020. Three spatial clusters were identified, with a primary cluster located at the border of Boone and Winnebago counties. Four space-time clusters were identified with a primary cluster in the northern portion of the study area from 2003 to 2005 that overlapped with the spatial cluster. The proportion of CWD cases removed from L1 (3.92, 95% CI, 2.56-6.01) and L2 (2.32, 95% CI, 1.50-3.59) were significantly higher compared to L3. Focussing culling efforts on accessible properties closest to L1 areas results in more CWD-infected deer being removed, which highlights the value of collaborations among landowners, hunters, and wildlife management agencies to control CWD. Continuous evaluation and updating of the culling and surveillance programs are essential to mitigate the health burden of CWD on deer populations in Illinois.

Evaluation of Real-Time Quaking-Induced Conversion, ELISA, and Immunohistochemistry for Chronic Wasting Disease Diagnosis

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a transmissible prion disorder, primarily affecting free-ranging and captive cervids in North America (United States and Canada), South Korea, and Europe (Finland, Norway, and Sweden). Current diagnostic methods used in the United States for detection of CWD in hunter harvested deer involve demonstration of the causal misfolded prion protein (PrP^CWD) in the obex or retropharyngeal lymph nodes (RLNs) using an antigen detection ELISA as a screening tool, followed by a confirmation by the gold standard method, immunohistochemistry (IHC). Real-time quaking-induced conversion (RT-QuIC) assay is a newer approach that amplifies misfolded CWD prions in vitro and has facilitated CWD prion detection in a variety of tissues, body fluids, and excreta. The current study was undertaken to compare ELISA, IHC, and RT-QuIC on RLNs (n = 1,300 animals) from white-tailed deer (WTD) in Michigan. In addition, prescapular, prefemoral and popliteal lymph nodes collected from a small subset (n = 7) of animals were tested. Lastly, the location of the positive samples within Michigan was documented and the percentage of CWD positive RLNs was calculated by sex and age. ELISA and RT-QuIC detected PrP^CWD in 184 and 178 out of 1,300 RLNs, respectively. Of the 184 ELISA positive samples, 176 were also IHC positive for CWD. There were seven discordant results when comparing IHC and ELISA. RT-QuIC revealed that six of the seven samples matched the IHC outcomes. One RLN was negative by IHC, but positive by ELISA and RT-QuIC. RT-QuIC, IHC, and ELISA also detected PrP^CWD in prescapular, prefemoral and popliteal lymph nodes. CWD infection heterogeneities were observed in different age and sex groups, with young males having higher CWD prevalence. All, except one, CWD positive RLNs analyzed were from ten Counties geographically located in the West Michigan region of the Lower Peninsula. Taken together, we show evidence that the RT-QuIC assay is comparable to ELISA and IHC and could be helpful for routine CWD detection in surveillance programs. RT-QuIC also demonstrated that CWD prions are distributed across lymph nodes in a variety of anatomic locations. A multi-laboratory validation on blinded sample panels is underway and is likely to help to provide insight into the variability (lab-to-lab), analytical sensitivity, and specificity of gold standard diagnostics vs. RT-QuIC assay.

Spatio-temporal changes in chronic wasting disease risk in wild deer during 14 years of surveillance in Alberta, Canada

Disease risk modeling is a key first step to understand the spatio-temporal dynamics of wildlife disease and to direct cost-effective surveillance and management. In Alberta, active surveillance for chronic wasting disease (CWD) in wild cervids began in 1998 with the first case detected in free-ranging cervids in 2005. Following the detection, a herd reduction program was implemented during 2005-2008 and in 2006 the ongoing hunter-based CWD Surveillance Program became mandatory in high-risk Wildlife Management Units (WMU). We used data collected during the CWD surveillance program to 1) document growth in sex-specific CWD prevalence (proportion of deer in sample that is CWD-positive) in hunter-harvest deer in 6 WMUs consistently monitored from 2006 to 2018, 2) document landscape features associated with where CWD-positive compared to CWD-negative deer were removed during hunter harvest and herd reduction in an early (2005-2012) and in a late period (2013-2017), and 3) to map the spatial risk of harvesting a deer infected with CWD in the prairie parklands of Alberta. In the 6 continuously monitored WMUs, risk of a harvested deer being CWD positive increased from 2006 to 2018 with CWD prevalence remaining highest in male mule deer whereas overall growth rate in CWD prevalence was greater in female mule deer, but similar to male white-tailed deer. We found no evidence that the 3-year herd reduction program conducted immediately after CWD was first detected affected the rate at which CWD grew over the course of the invasion. Risk of deer being CWD-positive was the highest in animals taken near small stream drainages and on soils with low organic carbon content in the early period, whereas risk became highest in areas of agriculture especially when far from large river drainages where deer often concentrate in isolated woody patches. The change in the influence of proximity to known CWD-positive cases suggested the disease was initially patchy but became more spatially homogeneous over time. Our results indicate that a targeted-removal program will remove more CWD positive animals compared to hunter harvest. However, the discontinuation of targeted removals during our research program, restricted our ability to assess its long term impact on CWD prevalence.

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN HARVEST MANAGEMENT AND CHRONIC WASTING DISEASE PREVALENCE TRENDS IN WESTERN MULE DEER (ODOCOILEUS HEMIONUS) HERDS

We analyzed retrospective data on harvest management practices and corresponding chronic wasting disease (CWD) prevalence trends in 36 western US and Canadian mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) management units (units). Our analyses employed logistic regression and model selection, exploiting variation in practices within and among jurisdictions to examine relationships between harvest management and apparent prevalence (the proportion of positive animals among those sampled). Despite notable differences in hunting practices among jurisdictions, our meta-analysis of combined data revealed strong evidence that the amount of harvest was related to CWD prevalence trends among adult male mule deer in the 32 units where prevalence at the start of the analysis period was ≤5%. All competitive models included the number of male deer harvested or number of hunters 1-2 yr prior as an explanatory variable, with increasing harvest leading to lower prevalence among males harvested in the following year. Competitive models also included harvest timing. Although less definitive than the number harvested, median harvest dates falling closer to breeding seasons were associated with lower prevalence in the following year. Our findings suggest harvest-when sufficient and sustained-can be an effective tool for attenuating CWD prevalence in adult male mule deer across western ranges, especially early in the course of an epidemic. Evidence of a broad relationship between the amount of harvest and subsequent changes in CWD prevalence among adult male mule deer provides an empirical basis for undertaking adaptive disease management experimentation aimed at suppressing or curtailing CWD epidemics.

Comparing unmanned aerial systems with conventional methodology for surveying a wild white-tailed deer population

Abstract Context Ungulate populations are subject to fluctuations caused by extrinsic factors and require efficient and frequent surveying to monitor population sizes and demographics. Unmanned aerial systems (UAS) have become increasingly popular for ungulate research; however, little is understood about how this novel technology compares with conventional methodologies for surveying wild populations. Aims We examined the feasibility of using a fixed-wing UAS equipped with a thermal infrared sensor for estimating the population density of wild white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) at the Cedar Creek Ecosystem Science Reserve (CCESR), Minnesota, USA. We compared UAS density estimates with those derived from faecal pellet-group counts. Methods We conducted UAS thermal survey flights from March to April of 2018 and January to March of 2019. Faecal pellet-group counts were conducted from April to May in 2018 and 2019. We modelled deer counts and detection probabilities and used these results to calculate point estimates and bootstrapped prediction intervals for deer density from UAS and pellet-group count data. We compared results of each survey approach to evaluate the relative efficacy of these two methodologies. Key results Our best-fitting model of certain deer detections derived from our UAS-collected thermal imagery produced deer density estimates (WR20204_IE1.gif, 95% prediction interval = 4.32–17.84 deer km−2) that overlapped with the pellet-group count model when using our mean pellet deposition rate assumption (WR20204_IE2.gif, 95% prediction interval = 4.14–11.29 deer km−2). Estimates from our top UAS model using both certain and potential deer detections resulted in a mean density of 13.77 deer km−2 (95% prediction interval = 6.64–24.35 deer km−2), which was similar to our pellet-group count model that used a lower rate of pellet deposition (WR20204_IE3.gif, 95% prediction interval = 6.46–17.65 deer km−2). The mean point estimates from our top UAS model predicted a range of 136.68–273.81 deer, and abundance point estimates using our pellet-group data ranged from 112.79 to 239.67 deer throughout the CCESR. Conclusions Overall, UAS yielded results similar to pellet-group counts for estimating population densities of wild ungulates; however, UAS surveys were more efficient and could be conducted at multiple times throughout the winter. Implications We demonstrated how UAS could be applied for regularly monitoring changes in population density. We encourage researchers and managers to consider the merits of UAS and how they could be used to enhance the efficiency of wildlife surveys.

Selective Breeding for Disease-Resistant PRNP Variants to Manage Chronic Wasting Disease in Farmed Whitetail Deer

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a fatal transmissible spongiform encephalopathy (TSE) of cervids caused by a misfolded variant of the normal cellular prion protein, and it is closely related to sheep scrapie. Variations in a host's prion gene, PRNP, and its primary protein structure dramatically affect susceptibility to specific prion disorders, and breeding for PRNP variants that prevent scrapie infection has led to steep declines in the disease in North American and European sheep. While resistant alleles have been identified in cervids, a PRNP variant that completely prevents CWD has not yet been identified. Thus, control of the disease in farmed herds traditionally relies on quarantine and depopulation. In CWD-endemic areas, depopulation of private herds becomes challenging to justify, leading to opportunities to manage the disease in situ. We developed a selective breeding program for farmed white-tailed deer in a high-prevalence CWD-endemic area which focused on reducing frequencies of highly susceptible PRNP variants and introducing animals with less susceptible variants. With the use of newly developed primers, we found that breeding followed predictable Mendelian inheritance, and early data support our project's utility in reducing CWD prevalence. This project represents a novel approach to CWD management, with future efforts building on these findings.

EVALUATING THE THRESHOLD DENSITY HYPOTHESIS FOR MOOSE (ALCES ALCES), WHITE-TAILED DEER (ODOCOILEUS VIRGINIANUS), AND PARELAPHOSTRONGYLUS TENUIS

Despite the importance of the Parelaphostrongylus tenuis infection for moose (Alces alces) and white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) management, only one peer-reviewed study has evaluated the relationship between deer and moose densities and the potential for parasite-mediated competition between the species. Using polynomial-regression modeling, that study identified a deer-density threshold above which moose populations declined; however, the nature of the data and apparent outliers suggests the approach used to develop that threshold may not have been appropriate. We used the data from the original study to test whether alternative models, including linear models and negative binomial models would be less sensitive to outliers and could better explain that relationship. We found no evidence that moose density decreases as deer density increases. We concluded that, although the proposed moose-deer-P. tenuis relationship could be partially density dependent, additional factors, such as frequency dependence of disease transmission, gastropod abundance, and shared use of resources by moose and deer should also be considered.

CHRONIC WASTING DISEASE MODELING: AN OVERVIEW

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is an infectious and fatal prion disease occurring in the family Cervidae. To update the research community regarding the status quo of CWD epidemic models, we conducted a meta-analysis on CWD research. We collected data from peer-reviewed articles published since 1980, when CWD was first diagnosed, until December 2018. We explored the analytical methods used historically to understand CWD. We used 14 standardized variables to assess overall analytical approaches of CWD research communities, data used, and the modeling methods used. We found that CWD modeling initiated in the early 2000s and has increased since then. Connectivity of the research community was heavily reliant on a cluster of CWD researchers. Studies focused primarily on regression and compartment-based models, population-level approaches, and host species of game management concern. Similarly, CWD research focused on single populations, species, and locations, neglecting modeling using community ecology and biogeographic approaches. Chronic wasting disease detection relied on classic diagnostic methods with limited sensitivity for most stages of infection. Overall, we found that past modeling efforts generated a solid baseline for understanding CWD in wildlife and increased our knowledge on infectious prion ecology. Future analytical efforts should consider more sensitive diagnostic methods to quantify uncertainty and broader scale studies to elucidate CWD transmission beyond population-level approaches. Considering that infectious prions may not follow biological rules of well-known wildlife pathogens (i.e., viruses, bacteria, fungi), assumptions used when modeling other infectious disease may not apply for CWD. Chronic wasting disease is a new challenge in wildlife epidemiology.

Harvest strategies for the elimination of low prevalence wildlife diseases

The intensive harvesting of hosts is often the only practicable strategy for controlling emerging wildlife diseases. Several harvesting approaches have been explored theoretically with the objective of lowering transmission rates, decreasing the transmission period or specifically targeting spatial disease clusters or high-risk demographic groups. Here, we present a novel model-based approach to evaluate alternative harvest regimes, in terms of demographic composition and rates, intended to increase the probability to remove all infected individuals in the population during the early phase of an outbreak. We tested the utility of the method for the elimination of chronic wasting disease based on empirical data for reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) in Norway, in populations with (Nordfjella) and without (Hardangervidda) knowledge about exact disease prevalence and population abundance. Low and medium harvest intensities were unsuccessful in eliminating the disease, even at low prevalence. High-intensity harvesting had a high likelihood of eliminating the disease, but probability was strongly influenced by the disease prevalence. We suggest that the uncertainty about disease prevalence can be mitigated by using an adaptive management approach: forecast from models after each harvest season with updated data, derive prevalence estimates and forecast further harvesting. We identified the problems arising from disease surveillance with large fluctuations in harvesting pressure and hence sample sizes. The elimination method may be suitable for pathogens that cause long-lasting infections and with slow epidemic growth, but the method should only be attempted if there is a low risk of reinfection, either by a new disease introduction event (e.g. dispersing hosts) or due to environmental reservoirs. Our simulations highlighted the short time window when such a strategy is likely to be successful before approaching near complete eradication of the population.

Getting in Front of Chronic Wasting Disease: Model-Informed Proactive Approach for Managing an Emerging Wildlife Disease

Continuing geographic spread of chronic wasting disease (CWD) poses a serious threat to the sustainable future of cervids and hunting in North America. Moreover, CWD has been detected in captive cervids in South Korea and, in recent years, in free-ranging reindeer in Europe (Norway). Management of this disease is limited by logistical, financial, and sociopolitical considerations, and current strategies primarily focus on reducing host densities through hunter harvest and targeted culling. The success of such strategies in mitigating the spread and prevalence of CWD only upon detection is questionable. Here, we propose a proactive approach that emphasizes pre-emptive management through purposeful integration of virtual experiments (simulating alternate interventions as model scenarios) with the aim of evaluating their effectiveness. Here, we have used a published agent-based model that links white-tailed deer demography and behavior with CWD transmission dynamics to first derive a CWD outbreak trajectory and then use the trajectory to highlight issues associated with different phases of the CWD outbreak (pre-establishment/transition/endemic). Specifically, we highlight the practical constraints on surveillance in the pre-establishment phase and recommend that agencies use a realistic detection threshold for their CWD surveillance programs. We further demonstrate that many disease introductions are "dead ends" not leading to a full epidemic due to high stochasticity and harvesting in the pre-establishment phase of CWD. Model evaluated pre-emptive (pre-detection) harvest strategies could increase the resilience of the deer population to CWD spread and establishment. We conclude it is important to adaptively position CWD management ahead of, rather than behind, the CWD front.

The ecology of chronic wasting disease in wildlife

Prions are misfolded infectious proteins responsible for a group of fatal neurodegenerative diseases termed transmissible spongiform encephalopathy or prion diseases. Chronic Wasting Disease (CWD) is the prion disease with the highest spillover potential, affecting at least seven Cervidae (deer) species. The zoonotic potential of CWD is inconclusive and cannot be ruled out. A risk of infection for other domestic and wildlife species is also plausible. Here, we review the current status of the knowledge with respect to CWD ecology in wildlife. Our current understanding of the geographic distribution of CWD lacks spatial and temporal detail, does not consider the biogeography of infectious diseases, and is largely biased by sampling based on hunters' cooperation and funding available for each region. Limitations of the methods used for data collection suggest that the extent and prevalence of CWD in wildlife is underestimated. If the zoonotic potential of CWD is confirmed in the short term, as suggested by recent results obtained in experimental animal models, there will be limited accurate epidemiological data to inform public health. Research gaps in CWD prion ecology include the need to identify specific biological characteristics of potential CWD reservoir species that better explain susceptibility to spillover, landscape and climate configurations that are suitable for CWD transmission, and the magnitude of sampling bias in our current understanding of CWD distribution and risk. Addressing these research gaps will help anticipate novel areas and species where CWD spillover is expected, which will inform control strategies. From an ecological perspective, control strategies could include assessing restoration of natural predators of CWD reservoirs, ultrasensitive CWD detection in biotic and abiotic reservoirs, and deer density and landscape modification to reduce CWD spread and prevalence.

Using movement ecology to investigate meningeal worm risk in moose, Alces alces

Anthropogenic habitat change and moderating climatic conditions have enabled the northward geographic expansion of white-tailed deer, Odocoileus virginianus, and of the parasitic nematode (meningeal worm) it carries, Parelaphostrongylus tenuis. This expansion can have consequences in dead-end host species for other ungulates because meningeal worm reduces health, causes morbidity or direct mortality, and has been attributed to population declines. In northeastern Minnesota, which marks the southern extent of the bioclimatic range for moose (Alces alces), the moose population has declined more than 50% in the last decade, with studies detecting P. tenuis in 25–45% of necropsied animals. We assessed the factors that most commonly are associated with meningeal worm infection by linking moose movement ecology with known P. tenuis infection status from necropsy. We outfitted moose with GPS collars to assess their space use and cause-specific mortality. Upon death of the subject animal, we performed a necropsy to determine the cause of death and document meningeal worm infection. We then created statistical models to assess the relationship between meningeal worm infection and exposure to hypothesized factors of infection risk based on the space use of each moose by season. Predictors included land cover types, deer space use and density, environmental conditions, and demographics of individual moose (age and sex). Moose with autumn home ranges that included more upland shrub/conifer, and individuals with high proportions of wet environments, regardless of season, had increased infection risk. In contrast, the strongest relationships we found showed that high proportions of mixed and conifer forest within spring home ranges resulted in reduced risk of infection. The spring models showed the strongest relationships between exposure and infection, potentially due to moose foraging on ground vegetation during spring. By incorporating movement of moose into disease ecology, we were able to take a top-down approach to test hypothesized components of infection risk with actual spatial and temporal exposure of individual necropsied moose. The probability of infection for moose was not influenced by deer density, although deer densities did not vary greatly within the study area (2–4 deer/km2), highlighting the importance of also considering both moose space use and environmental conditions in understanding infection risk. We suggest management strategies that use a combination of deer and land management prescriptions designed to limit contact rates in susceptible populations.

Management of chronic wasting disease in ranched elk: conclusions from a longitudinal three-year study

Chronic wasting disease is a fatal, horizontally transmissible prion disease of cervid species that has been reported in free-ranging and farmed animals in North America, Scandinavia, and Korea. Like other prion diseases, CWD susceptibility is partly dependent on the sequence of the prion protein encoded by the host's PRNP gene; it is unknown if variations in PRNP have any meaningful effects on other aspects of health. Conventional diagnosis of CWD relies on ELISA or IHC testing of samples collected post-mortem, with recent efforts focused on antemortem testing approaches. We report on the conclusions of a study evaluating the role of antemortem testing of rectal biopsies collected from over 570 elk in a privately managed herd, and the results of both an amplification assay (RT-QuIC) and conventional IHC among animals with a several PRNP genotypes. Links between PRNP genotype and potential markers of evolutionary fitness, including pregnancy rates, body condition, and annual return rates were also examined. We found that the RT-QuIC assay identified significantly more CWD positive animals than conventional IHC across the course of the study, and was less affected by factors known to influence IHC sensitivity - including follicle count and PRNP genotype. We also found that several evolutionary markers of fitness were not adversely correlated with specific PRNP genotypes. While the financial burden of the disease in this herd was ultimately unsustainable for the herd owners, our scientific findings and the hurdles encountered will assist future CWD management strategies in both wild and farmed elk and deer.

Geographic Distribution of Chronic Wasting Disease Resistant Alleles in Nebraska, with Comments on the Evolution of Resistance

Infectious diseases create major challenges for wildlife management. In particular, prion diseases are fatal and incurable, leaving managers with limited options. In cervids, chronic wasting disease (CWD) can decimate captive and wild populations by affecting neural tissue leading to body control loss, decay, and ultimately death resulting in ecological and economic consequences. Partial protection against CWD results from some genotypes at the prion (PRNP) locus encoding PrP proteins that are less likely to misfold and build up to fatal levels in the central nervous system. Although multiple studies have documented the association between CWD susceptibility and genotypes, little is known about the distribution of resistant genotypes across the natural landscape, and whether population pockets of protection in exist in particular regions. We surveyed the genetic variability and distribution of resistant alleles and genotypes of the PRNP locus across Nebraska in deer collected in 2017, where mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) and white-tailed (O. virginianus) deer ranges meet on the North American Great Plains. We found that CWD-resistant alleles occur throughout the state in low frequencies, and our data suggest little evidence of geographic structure for the PRNP locus. In Nebraska, there is a lower frequency of the most common resistance allele (S96) compared with white-tailed deer in other parts of the Midwest. The frequency of resistant alleles (F225) was lower in mule deer. The low but widespread frequency of resistance alleles suggests that each species could be susceptible to CWD spread. Continued monitoring would be useful to determine if the frequency of resistant alleles increases in areas with increasing CWD rates. Three synonymous fixed genotypes at the PRNP locus allowed detection of hybrids between mule deer and white-tailed deer, although we found none, suggesting that CWD is not spread between species via hybridization. We also compare the PRNP genotypes of scrapie-resistant sheep with those of deer, and suggest that a single base-pair mutation at the PRNP locus could provide resistance in deer.

Update on chronic wasting disease (CWD) III

The European Commission asked EFSA for a Scientific Opinion: to revise the state of knowledge about the differences between the chronic wasting disease (CWD) strains found in North America (NA) and Europe and within Europe; to review new scientific evidence on the zoonotic potential of CWD and to provide recommendations to address the potential risks and to identify risk factors for the spread of CWD in the European Union. Full characterisation of European isolates is being pursued, whereas most NA CWD isolates have not been characterised in this way. The differing surveillance programmes in these continents result in biases in the types of cases that can be detected. Preliminary data support the contention that the CWD strains identified in Europe and NA are different and suggest the presence of strain diversity in European cervids. Current data do not allow any conclusion on the implications of strain diversity on transmissibility, pathogenesis or prevalence. Available data do not allow any conclusion on the zoonotic potential of NA or European CWD isolates. The risk of CWD to humans through consumption of meat cannot be directly assessed. At individual level, consumers of meat, meat products and offal derived from CWD-infected cervids will be exposed to the CWD agent(s). Measures to reduce human dietary exposure could be applied, but exclusion from the food chain of whole carcasses of infected animals would be required to eliminate exposure. Based on NA experiences, all the risk factors identified for the spread of CWD may be associated with animals accumulating infectivity in both the peripheral tissues and the central nervous system. A subset of risk factors is relevant for infected animals without involvement of peripheral tissues. All the risk factors should be taken into account due to the potential co-localisation of animals presenting with different disease phenotypes.

Tracing the rise of malignant cell lines: Distribution, epidemiology and evolutionary interactions of two transmissible cancers in Tasmanian devils

Emerging infectious diseases are rising globally and understanding host-pathogen interactions during the initial stages of disease emergence is essential for assessing potential evolutionary dynamics and designing novel management strategies. Tasmanian devils (Sarcophilus harrisii) are endangered due to a transmissible cancer-devil facial tumour disease (DFTD)-that since its emergence in the 1990s, has affected most populations throughout Tasmania. Recent studies suggest that devils are adapting to the DFTD epidemic and that disease-induced extinction is unlikely. However, in 2014, a second and independently evolved transmissible cancer-devil facial tumour 2 (DFT2)-was discovered at the d'Entrecasteaux peninsula, in south-east Tasmania, suggesting that the species is prone to transmissible cancers. To date, there is little information about the distribution, epidemiology and effects of DFT2 and its interaction with DFTD. Here, we use data from monitoring surveys and roadkills found within and adjacent to the d'Entrecasteaux peninsula to determine the distribution of both cancers and to compare their epidemiological patterns. Since 2012, a total of 51 DFTD tumours have been confirmed among 26 individuals inside the peninsula and its surroundings, while 40 DFT2 tumours have been confirmed among 23 individuals, and two individuals co-infected with both tumours. All devils with DFT2 were found within the d'Entrecasteaux peninsula, suggesting that this new transmissible cancer is geographically confined to this area. We found significant differences in tumour bodily location in DFTD and DFT2, with non-facial tumours more commonly found in DFT2. There was a significant sex bias in DFT2, with most cases reported in males, suggesting that since DFT2 originated from a male host, females might be less susceptible to this cancer. We discuss the implications of our results for understanding the epidemiological and evolutionary interactions of these two contemporary transmissible cancers and evaluating the effectiveness of potential management strategies.

Accelerated onset of chronic wasting disease in elk (Cervus canadensis) vaccinated with a PrPSc-specific vaccine and housed in a prion contaminated environment

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a fatal prion disease affecting multiple cervid species. Effective management tools for this disease, particularly in free-ranging populations, are currently limited. We evaluated a novel CWD vaccine in elk (Cervus canadensis) naturally exposed to CWD through a prion-contaminated environment. The vaccine targets a YYR disease-specific epitope to induce antibody responses specific to the misfolded (PrP^Sc) conformation. Female elk calves (n = 41) were captured from western Wyoming and transported to the Thorne-Williams Wildlife Research Center where CWD has been documented since 1979. Elk were held in contaminated pens for 14 to 20 days before being alternately assigned to either a vaccine (n = 21) or control group (n = 20). Vaccinated animals initially received two vaccinations approximately 42 days apart and annual vaccinations thereafter. Vaccination induced elevated YYR-specific antibody titers in all animals. Elk were genotyped for the prion protein gene at codon 132, monitored for clinical signs of CWD through daily observation, for disease status through periodic biopsy of rrectoanal mucosa-associated lympoid tissue (RAMALT), and monitored for YYR-specific serum antibody titres. Mean survival of vaccinated elk with the 132MM genotype (n = 15) was significantly shorter (800 days) than unvaccinated elk (n = 13) of the same genotype (1062 days; p = 0.003). Mean days until positive RAMALT biopsy for 132MM vaccinated elk (6 7 8) were significantly shorter than unvaccinated 132MM elk (990; p = 0.012). There was, however, no significant difference in survival between vaccinated (n = 4) and control (n = 5) elk with the 132ML genotype (p = 0.35) or in timing of positive RAMALT biopsies of 132ML elk (p = 0.66). There was no strong (p = 0.17) correlation between YYR-specific antibody titers and survival time. Determining the mechanism by which this vaccine accelerates onset of CWD will be important to direct further CWD vaccine research.

Mineral licks as environmental reservoirs of chronic wasting disease prions

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a fatal neurodegenerative disease of deer, elk, moose, and reindeer (cervids) caused by misfolded prion proteins. The disease has been reported across North America and recently discovered in northern Europe. Transmission of CWD in wild cervid populations can occur through environmental routes, but limited ability to detect prions in environmental samples has prevented the identification of potential transmission "hot spots". We establish widespread CWD prion contamination of mineral licks used by free-ranging cervids in an enzootic area in Wisconsin, USA. We show mineral licks can serve as reservoirs of CWD prions and thus facilitate disease transmission. Furthermore, mineral licks attract livestock and other wildlife that also obtain mineral nutrients via soil and water consumption. Exposure to CWD prions at mineral licks provides potential for cross-species transmission to wildlife, domestic animals, and humans. Managing deer use of mineral licks warrants further consideration to help control outbreaks of CWD.

Chronic wasting disease management in ranched elk using rectal biopsy testing

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a transmissible spongiform encephalopathy (TSE) affecting members of the cervid species, and is one of the few TSEs with an expanding geographic range. Diagnostic limitations, efficient transmission, and the movement of infected animals are important contributing factors in the ongoing spread of disease. Managing CWD in affected populations has proven difficult, relying on population reduction in the case of wild deer and elk, or quarantine and depopulation in farmed cervids. In the present study, we evaluated the effectiveness of managing endemic CWD in a closed elk herd using antemortem sampling combined with both conventional and experimental diagnostic testing, and selective, targeted culling of infected animals. We hypothesized that the real-time quaking-induced conversion (RT-QuIC) assay, a developing amplification assay, would offer greater detection capabilities over immunohistochemistry (IHC) in the identification of infected animals using recto-anal mucosa associated lymphoid tissue (RAMALT). We further sought to develop a better understanding of CWD epidemiology in elk with various PRNP alleles, and predicted that CWD prevalence would decrease with targeted culling. We found that RT-QuIC identified significantly more CWD-positive animals than IHC using RAMALT tissues (121 vs. 86, respectively, out of 553 unique animals), and that longstanding disease presence was associated with an increasing frequency of less susceptible PRNP alleles. Prevalence of CWD increased significantly over the first two years of the study, implying that refinements in our management strategy are necessary to reduce the prevalence of CWD in this herd.

Experimental investigation of alternative transmission functions: Quantitative evidence for the importance of nonlinear transmission dynamics in host-parasite systems

Understanding pathogen transmission is crucial for predicting and managing disease. Nonetheless, experimental comparisons of alternative functional forms of transmission remain rare, and those experiments that are conducted are often not designed to test the full range of possible forms.

To differentiate among 10 candidate transmission functions, we used a novel experimental design in which we independently varied four factors—duration of exposure, numbers of parasites, numbers of hosts and parasite density—in laboratory infection experiments.

We used interactions between amphibian hosts and trematode parasites as a model system and all candidate models incorporated parasite depletion. An additional manipulation involving anaesthesia addressed the effects of host behaviour on transmission form.

Across all experiments, nonlinear transmission forms involving either a power law or a negative binomial function were the best‐fitting models and consistently outperformed the linear density‐dependent and density‐independent functions. By testing previously published data for two other host–macroparasite systems, we also found support for the same nonlinear transmission forms.

Although manipulations of parasite density are common in transmission studies, the comprehensive set of variables tested in our experiments revealed that variation in density alone was least likely to differentiate among competing transmission functions. Across host–pathogen systems, nonlinear functions may often more accurately represent transmission dynamics and thus provide more realistic predictions for infection.

Scientific opinion on chronic wasting disease (II)

The European Commission asked EFSA for a scientific opinion on chronic wasting disease in two parts. Part one, on surveillance, animal health risk-based measures and public health risks, was published in January 2017. This opinion (part two) addresses the remaining Terms of Reference, namely, 'are the conclusions and recommendations in the EFSA opinion of June 2004 on diagnostic methods for chronic wasting disease still valid? If not, an update should be provided', and 'update the conclusions of the 2010 EFSA opinion on the results of the European Union survey on chronic wasting disease in cervids, as regards its occurrence in the cervid population in the European Union'. Data on the performance of authorised rapid tests in North America are not comprehensive, and are more limited than those available for the tests approved for statutory transmissible spongiform encephalopathies surveillance applications in cattle and sheep. There are no data directly comparing available rapid test performances in cervids. The experience in Norway shows that the Bio-Rad TeSeE™ SAP test, immunohistochemistry and western blotting have detected reindeer, moose and red deer cases. It was shown that testing both brainstem and lymphoid tissue from each animal increases the surveillance sensitivity. Shortcomings in the previous EU survey limited the reliability of inferences that could be made about the potential disease occurrence in Europe. Subsequently, testing activity in Europe was low, until the detection of the disease in Norway, triggering substantial testing efforts in that country. Available data neither support nor refute the conclusion that chronic wasting disease does not occur widely in the EU and do not preclude the possibility that the disease was present in Europe before the survey was conducted. It appears plausible that chronic wasting disease could have become established in Norway more than a decade ago.

Ante-mortem detection of chronic wasting disease in recto-anal mucosa-associated lymphoid tissues from elk (Cervus elaphus nelsoni) using real-time quaking-induced conversion (RT-QuIC) assay: A blinded collaborative study

Prion diseases are transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs) characterized by fatal, progressive neurologic diseases with prolonged incubation periods and an accumulation of infectious misfolded prion proteins. Antemortem diagnosis is often difficult due to a long asymptomatic incubation period, differences in the pathogenesis of different prions, and the presence of very low levels of infectious prion in easily accessible samples. Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a TSE affecting both wild and captive populations of cervids, including mule deer, white-tailed deer, elk, moose, muntjac, and most recently, wild reindeer. This study represents a well-controlled evaluation of a newly developed real-time quaking-induced conversion (RT-QuIC) assay as a potential CWD diagnostic screening test using rectal biopsy sections from a depopulated elk herd. We evaluated 69 blinded samples of recto-anal mucosa-associated lymphoid tissue (RAMALT) obtained from USDA Veterinary Services. The results were later un-blinded and statistically compared to immunohistochemical (IHC) results from the USDA National Veterinary Services Laboratories (NVSL) for RAMALT, obex, and medial retropharyngeal lymph node (MRPLN). Comparison of RAMALT RT-QuIC assay results with the IHC results of RAMALT revealed 92% relative sensitivity (95% confidence limits: 61.52-99.8%) and 95% relative specificity (95% confidence limits: 85.13-99%). Collectively, our results show a potential utility of the RT-QuIC assay to advance the development of a rapid, sensitive, and specific prion diagnostic assay for CWD prions.

Plasma cholesterol level determines in vivo prion propagation

Transmissible spongiform encephalopathies are fatal neurodegenerative diseases with an urgent need for therapeutic and prophylactic strategies. At the time when the blood-mediated transmission of prions was demonstrated, in vitro studies indicated a high binding affinity of the scrapie prion protein (PrP^Sc) with apoB-containing lipoproteins, i.e., the main carriers of cholesterol in human blood. The aim of the present study was to explore the relationship between circulating cholesterol-containing lipoproteins and the pathogenicity of prions in vivo. We showed that, in mice with a genetically engineered deficiency for the plasma lipid transporter, phospholipid transfer protein (PLTP), abnormally low circulating cholesterol concentrations were associated with a significant prolongation of survival time after intraperitoneal inoculation of the 22L prion strain. Moreover, when circulating cholesterol levels rose after feeding PLTP-deficient mice a lipid-enriched diet, a significant reduction in survival time of mice together with a marked increase in the accumulation rate of PrP^Sc deposits in their brain were observed. Our results suggest that the circulating cholesterol level is a determinant of prion propagation in vivo and that cholesterol-lowering strategies might be a successful therapeutic approach for patients suffering from prion diseases.

Temporal patterns of chronic wasting disease prion excretion in three cervid species

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is the only naturally occurring transmissible spongiform encephalopathy affecting free-ranging wildlife populations. Transmission of CWD occurs by direct contact or through contaminated environments; however, little is known about the temporal patterns of CWD prion excretion and shedding in wild cervids. We tested the urine and faeces of three species of captive cervids (elk, mule and white-tailed deer) at 6, 12, 18 and 24 months after oral inoculation to evaluate the temporal, species- and genotype-specific factors affecting the excretion of CWD prions. Although none of the animals exhibited clinical signs of CWD during the study, we determined that all three cervid species were excreting CWD prions by 6 months post-inoculation. Faecal samples were consistently positive for CWD prions for all three cervid species (88 %), and were more likely to be positive than urine samples (28 %). Cervids with genotypes encoding for the prion protein (PRNP) that were considered to be more susceptible to CWD were more likely to excrete CWD prions (94 %) than cervids with genotypes considered to be less susceptible (64 %). All cervids with CWD prions in their urine also had positive faeces (n=5), but the converse was not true. Our study is the first to demonstrate CWD prion excretion in urine by asymptomatic elk and mule deer. Our results indicate that the excretion of CWD prions in faeces and, to a lesser extent, urine may provide an important avenue for depositing prions in the environment.

The Ecology of Prions

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) affects cervids and is the only known prion disease readily transmitted among free-ranging wild animal populations in nature. The increasing spread and prevalence of CWD among cervid populations threaten the survival of deer and elk herds in North America, and potentially beyond. This review focuses on prion ecology, specifically that of CWD, and the current understanding of the role that the environment may play in disease propagation. We recount the discovery of CWD, discuss the role of the environment in indirect CWD transmission, and consider potentially relevant environmental reservoirs and vectors. We conclude by discussing how understanding the environmental persistence of CWD lends insight into transmission dynamics and potential management and mitigation strategies.

Chronic wasting disease in white-tailed deer: infection, mortality, and implications for heterogeneous transmission

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a fatal neurodegenerative disease affecting free-ranging and captive cervids that now occurs in 24 U.S. states and two Canadian provinces. Despite the potential threat of CWD to deer populations, little is known about the rates of infection and mortality caused by this disease. We used epidemiological models to estimate the force of infection and disease-associated mortality for white-tailed deer in the Wisconsin and Illinois CWD outbreaks. Models were based on age-prevalence data corrected for bias in aging deer using the tooth wear and replacement method. Both male and female deer in the Illinois outbreak had higher corrected age-specific prevalence with slightly higher female infection than deer in the Wisconsin outbreak. Corrected ages produced more complex models with different infection and mortality parameters than those based on apparent prevalence. We found that adult male deer have a more than threefold higher risk of CWD infection than female deer. Males also had higher disease mortality than female deer. As a result, CWD prevalence was twofold higher in adult males than females. We also evaluated the potential impacts of alternative contact structures on transmission dynamics in Wisconsin deer. Results suggested that transmission of CWD among male deer during the nonbreeding season may be a potential mechanism for producing higher rates of infection and prevalence characteristically found in males. However, alternatives based on high environmental transmission and transmission from females to males during the breeding season may also play a role.

Reconstructing the emergence of a lethal infectious disease of wildlife supports a key role for spread through translocations by humans

There have been few reconstructions of wildlife disease emergences, despite their extensive impact on biodiversity and human health. This is in large part attributable to the lack of structured and robust spatio-temporal datasets. We overcame logistical problems of obtaining suitable information by using data from a citizen science project and formulating spatio-temporal models of the spread of a wildlife pathogen (genus Ranavirus, infecting amphibians). We evaluated three main hypotheses for the rapid increase in disease reports in the UK: that outbreaks were being reported more frequently, that climate change had altered the interaction between hosts and a previously widespread pathogen, and that disease was emerging due to spatial spread of a novel pathogen. Our analysis characterized localized spread from nearby ponds, consistent with amphibian dispersal, but also revealed a highly significant trend for elevated rates of additional outbreaks in localities with higher human population density—pointing to human activities in also spreading the virus. Phylogenetic analyses of pathogen genomes support the inference of at least two independent introductions into the UK. Together these results point strongly to humans repeatedly translocating ranaviruses into the UK from other countries and between UK ponds, and therefore suggest potential control measures.

Systematic review of management strategies to control chronic wasting disease in wild deer populations in North America

Background

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a contagious, fatal prion disease affecting cervids in a growing number of regions across North America. Projected deer population declines and concern about potential spread of CWD to other species warrant strategies to manage this disease. Control efforts to date have been largely unsuccessful, resulting in continuing spread and increasing prevalence. This systematic review summarizes peer-reviewed published reports describing field-applicable CWD control strategies in wild deer populations in North America using systematic review methods. Ten databases were searched for peer-reviewed literature. Following deduplication, relevance screening, full-text appraisal, subject matter expert review and qualitative data extraction, nine references were included describing four distinct management strategies.

Results

Six of the nine studies used predictive modeling to evaluate control strategies. All six demonstrated one or more interventions to be effective but results were dependant on parameters and assumptions used in the model. Three found preferential removal of CWD infected deer to be effective in reducing CWD prevalence; one model evaluated a test and slaughter strategy, the other selective removal of infected deer by predators and the third evaluated increased harvest of the sex with highest prevalence (males). Three models evaluated non-selective harvest of deer. There were only three reports that examined primary data collected as part of observational studies. Two of these studies supported the effectiveness of intensive non-selective culling; the third study did not find a difference between areas that were subjected to culling and those that were not. Seven of the nine studies were conducted in the United States.

Conclusions

This review highlights the paucity of evaluated, field-applicable control strategies for CWD in wild deer populations. Knowledge gaps in the complex epidemiology of CWD and the intricacies inherent to prion diseases currently pose significant challenges to effective control of this disease in wild deer in North America.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12917-016-0804-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Chronic Wasting Disease: Transmission Mechanisms and the Possibility of Harvest Management

We develop a model of CWD management by nonselective deer harvest, currently the most feasible approach available for managing CWD in wild populations. We use the model to explore the effects of 6 common harvest strategies on disease prevalence and to identify potential optimal harvest policies for reducing disease prevalence without population collapse. The model includes 4 deer categories (juveniles, adult females, younger adult males, older adult males) that may be harvested at different rates, a food-based carrying capacity, which influences juvenile survival but not adult reproduction or survival, and seasonal force of infection terms for each deer category under differing frequency-dependent transmission dynamics resulting from environmental and direct contact mechanisms. Numerical experiments show that the interval of transmission coefficients β where the disease can be controlled is generally narrow and efficiency of a harvest policy to reduce disease prevalence depends crucially on the details of the disease transmission mechanism, in particular on the intensity of disease transmission to juveniles and the potential differences in the behavior of older and younger males that influence contact rates. Optimal harvest policy to minimize disease prevalence for each of the assumed transmission mechanisms is shown to depend on harvest intensity. Across mechanisms, a harvest that focuses on antlered deer, without distinguishing between age classes reduces disease prevalence most consistently, whereas distinguishing between young and older antlered deer produces higher uncertainty in the harvest effects on disease prevalence. Our results show that, despite uncertainties, a modelling approach can determine classes of harvest strategy that are most likely to be effective in combatting CWD.