Impact of the lab-score on antibiotic prescription rate in children with fever without source: a randomized controlled trial

Host biomarkers and combinatorial scores for the detection of serious and invasive bacterial infection in pediatric patients with fever without source

BACKGROUND

Improved tools are required to detect bacterial infection in children with fever without source (FWS), especially when younger than 3 years old. The aim of the present study was to investigate the diagnostic accuracy of a host signature combining for the first time two viral-induced biomarkers, tumor necrosis factor-related apoptosis-inducing ligand (TRAIL) and interferon γ-induced protein-10 (IP-10), with a bacterial-induced one, C-reactive protein (CRP), to reliably predict bacterial infection in children with fever without source (FWS) and to compare its performance to routine individual biomarkers (CRP, procalcitonin (PCT), white blood cell and absolute neutrophil counts, TRAIL, and IP-10) and to the Labscore.

METHODS

This was a prospective diagnostic accuracy study conducted in a single tertiary center in children aged less than 3 years old presenting with FWS. Reference standard etiology (bacterial or viral) was assigned by a panel of three independent experts. Diagnostic accuracy (AUC, sensitivity, specificity) of host individual biomarkers and combinatorial scores was evaluated in comparison to reference standard outcomes (expert panel adjudication and microbiological diagnosis).

RESULTS

241 patients were included. 68 of them (28%) were diagnosed with a bacterial infection and 5 (2%) with invasive bacterial infection (IBI). Labscore, ImmunoXpert, and CRP attained the highest AUC values for the detection of bacterial infection, respectively 0.854 (0.804-0.905), 0.827 (0.764-0.890), and 0.807 (0.744-0.869). Labscore and ImmunoXpert outperformed the other single biomarkers with higher sensitivity and/or specificity and showed comparable performance to one another although slightly reduced sensitivity in children < 90 days of age.

CONCLUSION

Labscore and ImmunoXpert demonstrate high diagnostic accuracy for safely discriminating bacterial infection in children with FWS aged under and over 90 days, supporting their adoption in the assessment of febrile patients.

A simple clinical decision rule may help to rule out severe bacterial infection and spare antibiotics in febrile young children

AIM

To assess the performance of a new clinical decision rule (CDR) to identify patients at a low risk of invasive bacterial infection (IBI) among febrile children and its theoretical impact on antibiotic use.

METHODS

Prospective study including consecutive children <5 years of age who presented in one French paediatric emergency department with fever without source between January and December 2016. With the collected data, we constructed a CDR based on a sequential approach based on age, clinical toxic signs, urinalysis and procalcitonin level. We evaluated its diagnostic performances to identify IBI and its potential impact on antibiotic use.

RESULTS

Among the 1061 children (IBI 11/1061, 1.0%), 693 (65.3%) were classified at low or intermediate risk of IBI, with an IBI prevalence of 0%. The sensitivity and specificity of the CDR to predict IBI were 100% and 73.9%. Negative and positive predictive value were 100% and 3.9%, respectively. Using this new CDR, the current antibiotics exposure would theoretically be reduced from 33.6% to 24.1%.

CONCLUSION

The promising interest of this clinical decision rule, using simple and accessible biological and clinical tools, needs to be confirm with an external validation study, which will allow its use in clinical practice.

Viremia as a predictor of absence of serious bacterial infection in children with fever without source

Most children with fever without source (FWS) require diagnostic laboratory tests to exclude a serious bacterial infection (SBI), often followed by admission and empirical antibiotics. As febrile children with a viral infection are less likely to have a SBI, identifying patients with systemic viral infection could contribute to exclude SBI. We evaluated whether the presence of virus in the blood could be used as a biomarker to rule out SBI. Children < 3 years old with FWS were prospectively enrolled and had real-time (reverse-transcription) PCR performed on the blood for adenovirus, enterovirus, parechovirus, and HHV6. 20/135 patients had SBI, and in 47/135, at least one virus was detected in the blood. Viremia had a higher sensitivity and negative predictive value (90% and 96%) to rule out SBI compared to CRP (65% and 93%) and PCT (55% and 90%). The odds ratio (OR) for the presence of SBI among non-viremic patients was 5.8 (p = 0.0225), compared to 5.5 for CRP ≥ 40 mg/l (p = 0.0009) and 3.7 for PCT ≥ 0.5 ng/mL (0.0093). This remained significant after adjusting for CRP and PCT (OR 5.6 and 5.9, respectively; p = 0.03 for both). Area under the ROC curve for CRP and PCT were 0.754 and 0.779, respectively, but increased to 0.803 and 0.832, respectively, when combined with viremia.

CONCLUSION

The presence of viremia had a better performance than commonly used biomarkers to rule-out SBI and could potentially be used in conjunction with CRP and/or PCT in the evaluation of children with FWS. Larger studies should evaluate the role of point-of-care testing of viruses by (revere-transcription) PCR in the plasma in management algorithms of children with FWS.

WHAT IS KNOWN

• Most children with FWS have a viral infection, but up to 15% have a SBI; most require laboratory tests, and many admission and empirical antibiotics. • Children with a viral infection are less likely to have a SBI.

WHAT IS NEW

• Children with a systemic viral infection are less likely to have an SBI. • Viremia is a better predictor of absence of SBI than commonly used biomarkers and could potentially be used in conjunction with CRP and/or PCT in the evaluation of children with FWS.

A Novel Framework for Phenotyping Children With Suspected or Confirmed Infection for Future Biomarker Studies

Background: The limited diagnostic accuracy of biomarkers in children at risk of a serious bacterial infection (SBI) might be due to the imperfect reference standard of SBI. We aimed to evaluate the diagnostic performance of a new classification algorithm for biomarker discovery in children at risk of SBI. Methods: We used data from five previously published, prospective observational biomarker discovery studies, which included patients aged 0- <16 years: the Alder Hey emergency department (n = 1,120), Alder Hey pediatric intensive care unit (n = 355), Erasmus emergency department (n = 1,993), Maasstad emergency department (n = 714) and St. Mary's hospital (n = 200) cohorts. Biomarkers including procalcitonin (PCT) (4 cohorts), neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin-2 (NGAL) (3 cohorts) and resistin (2 cohorts) were compared for their ability to classify patients according to current standards (dichotomous classification of SBI vs. non-SBI), vs. a proposed PERFORM classification algorithm that assign patients to one of eleven categories. These categories were based on clinical phenotype, test outcomes and C-reactive protein level and accounted for the uncertainty of final diagnosis in many febrile children. The success of the biomarkers was measured by the Area under the receiver operating Curves (AUCs) when they were used individually or in combination. Results: Using the new PERFORM classification system, patients with clinically confident bacterial diagnosis ("definite bacterial" category) had significantly higher levels of PCT, NGAL and resistin compared with those with a clinically confident viral diagnosis ("definite viral" category). Patients with diagnostic uncertainty had biomarker concentrations that varied across the spectrum. AUCs were higher for classification of "definite bacterial" vs. "definite viral" following the PERFORM algorithm than using the "SBI" vs. "non-SBI" classification; summary AUC for PCT was 0.77 (95% CI 0.72-0.82) vs. 0.70 (95% CI 0.65-0.75); for NGAL this was 0.80 (95% CI 0.69-0.91) vs. 0.70 (95% CI 0.58-0.81); for resistin this was 0.68 (95% CI 0.61-0.75) vs. 0.64 (0.58-0.69) The three biomarkers combined had summary AUC of 0.83 (0.77-0.89) for "definite bacterial" vs. "definite viral" infections and 0.71 (0.67-0.74) for "SBI" vs. "non-SBI." Conclusion: Biomarkers of bacterial infection were strongly associated with the diagnostic categories using the PERFORM classification system in five independent cohorts. Our proposed algorithm provides a novel framework for phenotyping children with suspected or confirmed infection for future biomarker studies.

A behavioural approach to specifying interventions: what insights can be gained for the reporting and implementation of interventions to reduce antibiotic use in hospitals?

Background

Reducing unnecessary antibiotic exposure is a key strategy in reducing the development and selection of antibiotic-resistant bacteria. Hospital antimicrobial stewardship (AMS) interventions are inherently complex, often requiring multiple healthcare professionals to change multiple behaviours at multiple timepoints along the care pathway. Inaction can arise when roles and responsibilities are unclear. A behavioural perspective can offer insights to maximize the chances of successful implementation.

Objectives

To apply a behavioural framework [the Target Action Context Timing Actors (TACTA) framework] to existing evidence about hospital AMS interventions to specify which key behavioural aspects of interventions are detailed.

Methods

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and interrupted time series (ITS) studies with a focus on reducing unnecessary exposure to antibiotics were identified from the most recent Cochrane review of interventions to improve hospital AMS. The TACTA framework was applied to published intervention reports to assess the extent to which key details were reported about what behaviour should be performed, who is responsible for doing it and when, where, how often and with whom it should be performed.

Results

The included studies (n = 45; 31 RCTs and 14 ITS studies with 49 outcome measures) reported what should be done, where and to whom. However, key details were missing about who should act (45%) and when (22%). Specification of who should act was missing in 79% of 15 interventions to reduce duration of treatment in continuing-care wards.

Conclusions

The lack of precise specification within AMS interventions limits the generalizability and reproducibility of evidence, hampering efforts to implement AMS interventions in practice.

Point-of-Care C-Reactive Protein Testing to Reduce Antibiotic Prescribing for Respiratory Tract Infections in Primary Care: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Randomised Controlled Trials

C-reactive protein (CRP) point-of-care testing (POCT) is increasingly being promoted to reduce diagnostic uncertainty and enhance antibiotic stewardship. In primary care, respiratory tract infections (RTIs) are the most common reason for inappropriate antibiotic prescribing, which is a major driver for antibiotic resistance. We systematically reviewed the available evidence on the impact of CRP-POCT on antibiotic prescribing for RTIs in primary care. Thirteen moderate to high-quality studies comprising 9844 participants met our inclusion criteria. Meta-analyses showed that CRP-POCT significantly reduced immediate antibiotic prescribing at the index consultation compared with usual care (RR 0.79, 95%CI 0.70 to 0.90, p = 0.0003, I² = 76%) but not during 28-day (n = 7) follow-up. The immediate effect was sustained at 12 months (n = 1). In children, CRP-POCT reduced antibiotic prescribing when CRP (cut-off) guidance was provided (n = 2). Meta-analyses showed significantly higher rates of re-consultation within 30 days (n = 8, 1 significant). Clinical recovery, resolution of symptoms, and hospital admissions were not significantly different between CRP-POCT and usual care. CRP-POCT can reduce immediate antibiotic prescribing for RTIs in primary care (number needed to (NNT) for benefit = 8) at the expense of increased re-consultations (NNT for harm = 27). The increase in re-consultations and longer-term effects of CRP-POCT need further evaluation. Overall, the benefits of CRP-POCT outweigh the potential harms (NNTnet = 11).

Evaluation of a clinical decision rule to guide antibiotic prescription in children with suspected lower respiratory tract infection in The Netherlands: A stepped-wedge cluster randomised trial

BACKGROUND

Optimising the use of antibiotics is a key component of antibiotic stewardship. Respiratory tract infections (RTIs) are the most common reason for antibiotic prescription in children, even though most of these infections in children under 5 years are viral. This study aims to safely reduce antibiotic prescriptions in children under 5 years with suspected lower RTI at the emergency department (ED), by implementing a clinical decision rule.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

In a stepped-wedge cluster randomised trial, we included children aged 1-60 months presenting with fever and cough or dyspnoea to 8 EDs in The Netherlands. The EDs were of varying sizes, from diverse geographic and demographic regions, and of different hospital types (tertiary versus general). In the pre-intervention phase, children received usual care, according to the Dutch and NICE guidelines for febrile children. During the intervention phase, a validated clinical prediction model (Feverkidstool) including clinical characteristics and C-reactive protein (CRP) was implemented as a decision rule guiding antibiotic prescription. The intervention was that antibiotics were withheld in children with a low or intermediate predicted risk of bacterial pneumonia (≤10%, based on Feverkidstool). Co-primary outcomes were antibiotic prescription rate and strategy failure. Strategy failure was defined as secondary antibiotic prescriptions or hospitalisations, persistence of fever or oxygen dependency up to day 7, or complications. Hospitals were randomly allocated to 1 sequence of treatment each, using computer randomisation. The trial could not be blinded. We used multilevel logistic regression to estimate the effect of the intervention, clustered by hospital and adjusted for time period, age, sex, season, ill appearance, and fever duration; predicted risk was included in exploratory analysis. We included 999 children (61% male, median age 17 months [IQR 9 to 30]) between 1 January 2016 and 30 September 2018: 597 during the pre-intervention phase and 402 during the intervention phase. Most children (77%) were referred by a general practitioner, and half of children were hospitalised. Intention-to-treat analyses showed that overall antibiotic prescription was not reduced (30% to 25%, adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.07 [95% CI 0.57 to 2.01, p = 0.75]); strategy failure reduced from 23% to 16% (aOR 0.53 [95% CI 0.32 to 0.88, p = 0.01]). Exploratory analyses showed that the intervention influenced risk groups differently (p < 0.01), resulting in a reduction in antibiotic prescriptions in low/intermediate-risk children (17% to 6%; aOR 0.31 [95% CI 0.12 to 0.81, p = 0.02]) and a non-significant increase in the high-risk group (47% to 59%; aOR 2.28 [95% CI 0.84 to 6.17, p = 0.09]). Two complications occurred during the trial: 1 admission to the intensive care unit during follow-up and 1 pleural empyema at day 10 (both unrelated to the study intervention). Main limitations of the study were missing CRP values in the pre-intervention phase and a prolonged baseline period due to logistical issues, potentially affecting the power of our study.

CONCLUSIONS

In this multicentre ED study, we observed that a clinical decision rule for childhood pneumonia did not reduce overall antibiotic prescription, but that it was non-inferior to usual care. Exploratory analyses showed fewer strategy failures and that fewer antibiotics were prescribed in low/intermediate-risk children, suggesting improved targeting of antibiotics by the decision rule.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Netherlands Trial Register NTR5326.

Biomarkers for Infection in Children: Current Clinical Practice and Future Perspectives

Biomarkers have become an integral part of the clinical decision-making process of clinicians dealing with febrile children. C-reactive protein, procalcitonin and white blood cell count are probably the most studied ones. Crucial to using biomarkers is the understanding of how a test result will alter post-test probabilities and then impact on clinical decision making. Improved analytical and computational platforms have enabled the next generation of advanced biomarker discovery studies. Promising combinations of candidate biomarkers for a diverse spectrum of febrile illnesses, such as viral and bacterial infections, have been identified using proteomics, RNA gene expression and metabolomics.

Antibiotic misuse in respiratory tract infections in children and adults-a prospective, multicentre study (TAILORED Treatment)

Respiratory tract infections (RTI) are more commonly caused by viral pathogens in children than in adults. Surprisingly, little is known about antibiotic use in children as compared to adults with RTI. This prospective study aimed to determine antibiotic misuse in children and adults with RTI, using an expert panel reference standard, in order to prioritise the target age population for antibiotic stewardship interventions. We recruited children and adults who presented at the emergency department or were hospitalised with clinical presentation of RTI in The Netherlands and Israel. A panel of three experienced physicians adjudicated a reference standard diagnosis (i.e. bacterial or viral infection) for all the patients using all available clinical and laboratory information, including a 28-day follow-up assessment. The cohort included 284 children and 232 adults with RTI (median age, 1.3 years and 64.5 years, respectively). The proportion of viral infections was larger in children than in adults (209(74%) versus 89(38%), p < 0.001). In case of viral RTI, antibiotics were prescribed (i.e. overuse) less frequently in children than in adults (77/209 (37%) versus 74/89 (83%), p < 0.001). One (1%) child and three (2%) adults with bacterial infection were not treated with antibiotics (i.e. underuse); all were mild cases. This international, prospective study confirms major antibiotic overuse in patients with RTI. Viral infection is more common in children, but antibiotic overuse is more frequent in adults with viral RTI. Together, these findings support the need for effective interventions to decrease antibiotic overuse in RTI patients of all ages.

Clinical prediction models for young febrile infants at the emergency department: an international validation study

OBJECTIVE

To assess the diagnostic value of existing clinical prediction models (CPM; ie, statistically derived) in febrile young infants at risk for serious bacterial infections.

METHODS

A systematic literature review identified eight CPMs for predicting serious bacterial infections in febrile children. We validated these CPMs on four validation cohorts of febrile children in Spain (age <3 months), France (age <3 months) and two cohorts in the Netherlands (age 1-3 months and >3-12 months). We evaluated the performance of the CPMs by sensitivity/specificity, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and calibration studies.

RESULTS

The original cohorts in which the prediction rules were developed (derivation cohorts) ranged from 381 to 15 781 children, with a prevalence of serious bacterial infections varying from 0.8% to 27% and spanned an age range of 0-16 years. All CPMs originally performed moderately to very well (AUC 0.60-0.93). The four validation cohorts included 159-2204 febrile children, with a median age range of 1.8 (1.2-2.4) months for the three cohorts <3 months and 8.4 (6.0-9.6) months for the cohort >3-12 months of age. The prevalence of serious bacterial infections varied between 15.1% and 17.2% in the three cohorts <3 months and was 9.8% for the cohort >3-12 months of age. Although discriminative values varied greatly, best performance was observed for four CPMs including clinical signs and symptoms, urine dipstick analyses and laboratory markers with AUC ranging from 0.68 to 0.94 in the three cohorts <3 months (ranges sensitivity: 0.48-0.94 and specificity: 0.71-0.97). For the >3-12 months' cohort AUC ranges from 0.80 to 0.89 (ranges sensitivity: 0.70-0.82 and specificity: 0.78-0.90). In general, the specificities exceeded sensitivities in our cohorts, in contrast to derivation cohorts with high sensitivities, although this effect was stronger in infants <3 months than in infants >3-12 months.

CONCLUSION

We identified four CPMs, including clinical signs and symptoms, urine dipstick analysis and laboratory markers, which can aid clinicians in identifying serious bacterial infections. We suggest clinicians should use CPMs as an adjunctive clinical tool when assessing the risk of serious bacterial infections in febrile young infants.

Antibiotic Use in Febrile Children Presenting to the Emergency Department: A Systematic Review

Introduction: While fever is the main complaint among pediatric emergency services and high antibiotic prescription are observed, only a few studies have been published addressing this subject. Therefore this systematic review aims to summarize antibiotic prescriptions in febrile children at the ED and assess its determinants. Methods: We extracted studies published from 2000 to 2017 on antibiotic use in febrile children at the ED from different databases. Author, year, and country of publishing, study design, inclusion criteria, primary outcome, age, and number of children included in the study was extracted. To compare the risk-of-bias all articles were assessed using the MINORS criteria. For the final quality assessment we additionally used the sample size and the primary outcome. Results: We included 26 studies reporting on antibiotic prescription and 28 intervention studies on the effect on antibiotic prescription. In all 54 studies antibiotic prescriptions in the ED varied from 15 to 90.5%, pending on study populations and diagnosis. Respiratory tract infections were mostly studied. Pediatric emergency physicians prescribed significantly less antibiotics then general emergency physicians. Most frequent reported interventions to reduce antibiotics are delayed antibiotic prescription in acute otitis media, viral testing and guidelines. Conclusion: Evidence on antibiotic prescriptions in children with fever presenting to the ED remains inconclusive. Delayed antibiotic prescription in acute otitis media and guidelines for fever and respiratory infections can effectively reduce antibiotic prescription in the ED. The large heterogeneity of type of studies and included populations limits strict conclusions, such a gap in knowledge on the determining factors that influence antibiotic prescription in febrile children presenting to the ED remains.

Refined Lab-score, a Risk Score Predicting Serious Bacterial Infection in Febrile Children Less Than 3 Years of Age

BACKGROUND

The identification of serious bacterial infection (SBI) in children with fever without source remains a challenge. A risk score called Lab-score, based on C-reactive protein, procalcitonin and urinary dipstick results was derived to predict SBI. However, all biomarkers were initially dichotomized, leading to weak statistical reliability and lack of transportability across diverse settings. We aimed to refine and validate this risk-score algorithm.

METHODS

The Lab-score was refined using a secondary analysis of a multicenter cohort study of children with fever without source via multilevel regression modeling. The external validation was conducted on data from a Canadian cohort study.

RESULTS

Eight hundred seventy-seven children (24% SBI) were included for the derivation study, and 347 (16% SBI) for validation. Only C-reactive protein, procalcitonin, age and urinary dipstick remained independently associated with SBI. The model achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of 0.94 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.93-0.96), which was significantly higher than any other isolated biomarker (P < 0.0001), and the original Lab-score (P < 0.0001). According to a decision curve analysis, the model yielded a better strategy than those based on independently considered biomarkers, or on the original Lab-score. The threshold analysis led to a cutoff that yielded 96% (95% CI: 92-98) sensitivity and 73% (95% CI: 70-77) specificity. The external validation found similar predictive abilities: 0.96 area under the ROC curve (95% CI: 0.93-0.99), 95% sensitivity (95% CI: 85-99) and 87% specificity (95% CI: 83-91).

CONCLUSION

The refined Lab-score demonstrated higher prediction ability for SBI than the original Lab-score, with promising wider applicability across settings. These results require validation in additional populations.

Validation of a Novel Assay to Distinguish Bacterial and Viral Infections

BACKGROUND

Reliably distinguishing bacterial from viral infections is often challenging, leading to antibiotic misuse. A novel assay that integrates measurements of blood-borne host-proteins (tumor necrosis factor-related apoptosis-inducing ligand, interferon γ-induced protein-10, and C-reactive protein [CRP]) was developed to assist in differentiation between bacterial and viral disease.

METHODS

We performed double-blind, multicenter assay evaluation using serum remnants collected at 5 pediatric emergency departments and 2 wards from children ≥3 months to ≤18 years without (n = 68) and with (n = 529) suspicion of acute infection. Infectious cohort inclusion criteria were fever ≥38°C and symptom duration ≤7 days. The reference standard diagnosis was based on predetermined criteria plus adjudication by experts blinded to assay results. Assay performers were blinded to the reference standard. Assay cutoffs were predefined.

RESULTS

Of 529 potentially eligible patients with suspected acute infection, 100 did not fulfill infectious inclusion criteria and 68 had insufficient serum. The resulting cohort included 361 patients, with 239 viral, 68 bacterial, and 54 indeterminate reference standard diagnoses. The assay distinguished between bacterial and viral patients with 93.8% sensitivity (95% confidence interval: 87.8%-99.8%) and 89.8% specificity (85.6%-94.0%); 11.7% had an equivocal assay outcome. The assay outperformed CRP (cutoff 40 mg/L; sensitivity 88.2% [80.4%-96.1%], specificity 73.2% [67.6%-78.9%]) and procalcitonin testing (cutoff 0.5 ng/mL; sensitivity 63.1% [51.0%-75.1%], specificity 82.3% [77.1%-87.5%]).

CONCLUSIONS

Double-blinded evaluation confirmed high assay performance in febrile children. Assay was significantly more accurate than CRP, procalcitonin, and routine laboratory parameters. Additional studies are warranted to support its potential to improve antimicrobial treatment decisions.

Predicting Risk of Serious Bacterial Infections in Febrile Children in the Emergency Department

BACKGROUND

Improving the diagnosis of serious bacterial infections (SBIs) in the children's emergency department is a clinical priority. Early recognition reduces morbidity and mortality, and supporting clinicians in ruling out SBIs may limit unnecessary admissions and antibiotic use.

METHODS

A prospective, diagnostic accuracy study of clinical and biomarker variables in the diagnosis of SBIs (pneumonia or other SBI) in febrile children <16 years old. A diagnostic model was derived by using multinomial logistic regression and internally validated. External validation of a published model was undertaken, followed by model updating and extension by the inclusion of procalcitonin and resistin.

RESULTS

There were 1101 children studied, of whom 264 had an SBI. A diagnostic model discriminated well between pneumonia and no SBI (concordance statistic 0.84, 95% confidence interval 0.78-0.90) and between other SBIs and no SBI (0.77, 95% confidence interval 0.71-0.83) on internal validation. A published model discriminated well on external validation. Model updating yielded good calibration with good performance at both high-risk (positive likelihood ratios: 6.46 and 5.13 for pneumonia and other SBI, respectively) and low-risk (negative likelihood ratios: 0.16 and 0.13, respectively) thresholds. Extending the model with procalcitonin and resistin yielded improvements in discrimination.

CONCLUSIONS

Diagnostic models discriminated well between pneumonia, other SBIs, and no SBI in febrile children in the emergency department. Improvements in the classification of nonevents have the potential to reduce unnecessary hospital admissions and improve antibiotic prescribing. The benefits of this improved risk prediction should be further evaluated in robust impact studies.

Procalcitonin to Detect Bacterial Infections in Critically Ill Pediatric Patients

The diagnostic power of procalcitonin (PCT) in the pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) is uncertain. This study aimed to determine the diagnostic ability of PCT to detect serious bacterial infections (SBI) in a heterogeneous PICU population. This was a retrospective cohort study of patients on whom a PCT level was obtained within 48 hours of admission to a PICU from 2013 to 2015. Discriminatory ability of PCT to predict SBI was examined by test and receiver operating characteristics (AUC [area under the curve]-ROC). Seventy-five patients were included and 28 (37%) had an SBI (median PCT = 6.48 ng/mL) compared with 47 (63%) in the noninfection group (median PCT = 0.23 ng/mL, P < .0001). PCT was able to adequately predict SBI (AUC-ROC = 0.83, 95% CI 0.74-0.93; P < .0001), and a PCT ≥1.28 ng/mL was the optimal threshold to detect SBI with a positive predictive value of 76.7% and negative predictive value of 88.9%. PCT adequately predicted SBI in a heterogeneous PICU population and may be useful for minimizing antibiotic consumption.

Interventions to improve antibiotic prescribing practices for hospital inpatients

BACKGROUND

Antibiotic resistance is a major public health problem. Infections caused by multidrug-resistant bacteria are associated with prolonged hospital stay and death compared with infections caused by susceptible bacteria. Appropriate antibiotic use in hospitals should ensure effective treatment of patients with infection and reduce unnecessary prescriptions. We updated this systematic review to evaluate the impact of interventions to improve antibiotic prescribing to hospital inpatients.

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the effectiveness and safety of interventions to improve antibiotic prescribing to hospital inpatients and to investigate the effect of two intervention functions: restriction and enablement.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) (the Cochrane Library), MEDLINE, and Embase. We searched for additional studies using the bibliographies of included articles and personal files. The last search from which records were evaluated and any studies identified incorporated into the review was January 2015.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and non-randomised studies (NRS). We included three non-randomised study designs to measure behavioural and clinical outcomes and analyse variation in the effects: non- randomised trials (NRT), controlled before-after (CBA) studies and interrupted time series (ITS) studies. For this update we also included three additional NRS designs (case control, cohort, and qualitative studies) to identify unintended consequences. Interventions included any professional or structural interventions as defined by the Cochrane Effective Practice and Organisation of Care Group. We defined restriction as 'using rules to reduce the opportunity to engage in the target behaviour (or increase the target behaviour by reducing the opportunity to engage in competing behaviours)'. We defined enablement as 'increasing means/reducing barriers to increase capability or opportunity'. The main comparison was between intervention and no intervention.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors extracted data and assessed study risk of bias. We performed meta-analysis and meta-regression of RCTs and meta-regression of ITS studies. We classified behaviour change functions for all interventions in the review, including those studies in the previously published versions. We analysed dichotomous data with a risk difference (RD). We assessed certainty of evidence with GRADE criteria.

MAIN RESULTS

This review includes 221 studies (58 RCTs, and 163 NRS). Most studies were from North America (96) or Europe (87). The remaining studies were from Asia (19), South America (8), Australia (8), and the East Asia (3). Although 62% of RCTs were at a high risk of bias, the results for the main review outcomes were similar when we restricted the analysis to studies at low risk of bias.More hospital inpatients were treated according to antibiotic prescribing policy with the intervention compared with no intervention based on 29 RCTs of predominantly enablement interventions (RD 15%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 14% to 16%; 23,394 participants; high-certainty evidence). This represents an increase from 43% to 58% .There were high levels of heterogeneity of effect size but the direction consistently favoured intervention.The duration of antibiotic treatment decreased by 1.95 days (95% CI 2.22 to 1.67; 14 RCTs; 3318 participants; high-certainty evidence) from 11.0 days. Information from non-randomised studies showed interventions to be associated with improvement in prescribing according to antibiotic policy in routine clinical practice, with 70% of interventions being hospital-wide compared with 31% for RCTs. The risk of death was similar between intervention and control groups (11% in both arms), indicating that antibiotic use can likely be reduced without adversely affecting mortality (RD 0%, 95% CI -1% to 0%; 28 RCTs; 15,827 participants; moderate-certainty evidence). Antibiotic stewardship interventions probably reduce length of stay by 1.12 days (95% CI 0.7 to 1.54 days; 15 RCTs; 3834 participants; moderate-certainty evidence). One RCT and six NRS raised concerns that restrictive interventions may lead to delay in treatment and negative professional culture because of breakdown in communication and trust between infection specialists and clinical teams (low-certainty evidence).Both enablement and restriction were independently associated with increased compliance with antibiotic policies, and enablement enhanced the effect of restrictive interventions (high-certainty evidence). Enabling interventions that included feedback were probably more effective than those that did not (moderate-certainty evidence).There was very low-certainty evidence about the effect of the interventions on reducing Clostridium difficile infections (median -48.6%, interquartile range -80.7% to -19.2%; 7 studies). This was also the case for resistant gram-negative bacteria (median -12.9%, interquartile range -35.3% to 25.2%; 11 studies) and resistant gram-positive bacteria (median -19.3%, interquartile range -50.1% to +23.1%; 9 studies). There was too much variance in microbial outcomes to reliably assess the effect of change in antibiotic use. Heterogeneity of intervention effect on prescribing outcomesWe analysed effect modifiers in 29 RCTs and 91 ITS studies. Enablement and restriction were independently associated with a larger effect size (high-certainty evidence). Feedback was included in 4 (17%) of 23 RCTs and 20 (47%) of 43 ITS studies of enabling interventions and was associated with greater intervention effect. Enablement was included in 13 (45%) of 29 ITS studies with restrictive interventions and enhanced intervention effect.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

We found high-certainty evidence that interventions are effective in increasing compliance with antibiotic policy and reducing duration of antibiotic treatment. Lower use of antibiotics probably does not increase mortality and likely reduces length of stay. Additional trials comparing antibiotic stewardship with no intervention are unlikely to change our conclusions. Enablement consistently increased the effect of interventions, including those with a restrictive component. Although feedback further increased intervention effect, it was used in only a minority of enabling interventions. Interventions were successful in safely reducing unnecessary antibiotic use in hospitals, despite the fact that the majority did not use the most effective behaviour change techniques. Consequently, effective dissemination of our findings could have considerable health service and policy impact. Future research should instead focus on targeting treatment and assessing other measures of patient safety, assess different stewardship interventions, and explore the barriers and facilitators to implementation. More research is required on unintended consequences of restrictive interventions.

Systematic review of the effects of care provided with and without diagnostic clinical prediction rules

BACKGROUND

Diagnostic clinical prediction rules (CPRs) are worthwhile if they improve patient outcomes or provide benefits such as reduced resource use, without harming patients. We conducted a systematic review to assess the effects of diagnostic CPRs on patient and process of care outcomes.

METHODS

We searched electronic databases and a trial registry and performed citation and reference checks, for randomised trials comparing a diagnostic strategy with and without a CPR. Included studies were assessed for risk of bias and similar studies meta-analysed.

RESULTS

Twenty-seven studies evaluating diagnostic CPRs for 14 conditions were included. A clinical management decision was the primary outcome in the majority of studies. Most studies were judged to be at high or uncertain risk of bias on ≥3 of 6 domains. Details of study interventions and implementation were infrequently reported.For suspected Group A Streptococcus throat infection, diagnostic CPRs reduced symptoms (1 study) and antibiotic prescriptions (5 studies, RR 0.86, 95% CI 0.75 to 0.99). For suspected cardiac chest pain, diagnostic strategies incorporating a CPR improved early discharge rates (1 study), decreased objective cardiac testing (1 study) and decreased hospitalisations (1 study). For ankle injuries, Ottawa Ankle Rules reduced radiography when used with clinical examination (1 study) but had no effect on length of stay as a triage test (1 study). For suspected acute appendicitis, CPRs had no effect on rates of perforated appendix (1 study) or the number of non-therapeutic operations (5 studies, RR 0.68, 95% CI 0.43 to 1.08). For suspected pneumonia, CPRs reduced antibiotic prescribing without unfavourable outcomes (3 studies). For children with possible serious bacterial infection, diagnostic CPRs did not improve process of care outcomes (3 studies).

CONCLUSION

There are few randomised trials of diagnostic CPRs, and patient outcomes are infrequently reported. Diagnostic CPRs had a positive effect on process outcomes in some clinical conditions; however, many studies were at unclear or high risk of bias and the results may be context specific. Future studies should seek to detail how the CPR might alter the diagnostic pathway, report effects on both patient and process outcomes, and improve reporting of the study interventions and implementation.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

The protocol for this review was not registered with PROSPERO, the international prospective register of systematic review protocols. The review was conceived and protocol prepared prior to the launch of PROSPERO in February 2011.

Implementation of clinical decision support in young children with acute gastroenteritis: a randomized controlled trial at the emergency department

Acute gastroenteritis (AGE) is one of the most frequent reasons for young children to visit emergency departments (EDs). We aimed to evaluate (1) feasibility of a nurse-guided clinical decision support system for rehydration treatment in children with AGE and (2) the impact on diagnostics, treatment, and costs compared with usual care by attending physician. A randomized controlled trial was performed in 222 children, aged 1 month to 5 years at the ED of the Erasmus MC-Sophia Children's hospital in The Netherlands ( 2010-2012). Outcome included (1) feasibility, measured by compliance of the nurses, and (2) length of stay (LOS) at the ED, the number of diagnostic tests, treatment, follow-up, and costs. Due to failure of post-ED weight measurement, we could not evaluate weight difference as measure for dehydration. Patient characteristics were comparable between the intervention (N = 113) and the usual care group (N = 109). Implementation of the clinical decision support system proved a high compliance rate. The standardized use of oral ORS (oral rehydration solution) significantly increased from 52 to 65%(RR2.2, 95%CI 1.09-4.31 p < 0.05). We observed no differences in other outcome measures.

CONCLUSION

Implementation of nurse-guided clinical decision support system on rehydration treatment in children with AGE showed high compliance and increase standardized use of ORS, without differences in other outcome measures. What is Known: • Acute gastroenteritis is one of the most frequently encountered problems in pediatric emergency departments. • Guidelines advocate standardized oral treatment in children with mild to moderate dehydration, but appear to be applied infrequently in clinical practice. What is New: • Implementation of a nurse-guided clinical decision support system on treatment of AGE in young children showed good feasibility, resulting in a more standardized ORS use in children with mild to moderate dehydration, compared to usual care. • Given the challenges to perform research in emergency care setting, the ED should be experienced and adequately equipped, especially during peak times.

[Cost-effectiveness of diagnostic strategies of severe bacterial infection in infants with fever without a source]

INTRODUCTION

Serious bacterial infections in infants under 2-years-of-age with fever without a source remains, despite advances in vaccination, a matter of concern for both physicians and parents. Having cost-effectiveness information is relevant to guide decision making in clinical practice in this scenario. Objective: To determine the cost-effectiveness of four different strategies of screening in Argentina for serious bacterial infection in children presenting with fever without a source. Materials and methods: We designed a decision tree to model a hypothetical cohort of 10,000 children with fever without a source. We compared the incremental cost-effectiveness of four strategies to detect serious bacterial infection: Rochester criteria + C reactive protein test, Rochester criteria + procalcitonin test, Rochester criteria, and expectant observation. Results: Rochester criteria + C reactive protein test was the most cost-effective strategy with USD$ 784 for each correctly diagnosed case versus USD$ 839 of Rochester criteria + procalcitonin test, USD$ 1,116 of expectant observation or USD$ 1,193 of Rochester criteria. When the probability of serious bacterial infections was equal or less than 14%, the strategy of choice was expectant observation. Conclusions: The Rochester criteria + C reactive protein test was the most cost-effective strategy to detect serious bacterial infection in one to three months old children with fever without a source. However, in low risk settings for such infection, the strategy of choice is expectant observation.

Supporting decisions to increase the safe discharge of children with febrile illness from the emergency department: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Despite fewer serious infections presenting to the children's emergency department (ED), hospital admissions of children with febrile illness have increased. We review evidence for the use of decision rules to increase the safe discharge of these children from the ED.

METHODS

A systematic review of prospective studies of decision rules for the discharge of children with febrile illness, and prediction rules for the diagnosis of serious infections in children presenting to ED. We reviewed the MEDLINE database, Cochrane Library and hand searched the bibliographies of related studies. The search was limited to the English language.

RESULTS

Thirty-three studies were identified. Fourteen reported low-risk criteria to rule out serious bacterial infection (SBI) in infants less than 3 months of age. In this group, clinical tools such as the Rochester and Philadelphia criteria support the safe discharge of low-risk infants without empirical antibiotics. Seventeen studies reported prediction rules in older children, though only four included children over 3 years. Two impact studies based upon multivariable prediction models failed to demonstrate any impact on rates of discharge from ED.

CONCLUSIONS

The use of clinical prediction models can improve discrimination between serious and self-limiting infections in children. The application of low-risk thresholds may help to rule out serious infections and discharge children from the ED without empirical antibiotics. A growing evidence base for prediction rules has so far failed to translate into validated rules to aid decision-making. Future work should evaluate decision rules in well designed impact studies, focusing on the need for hospital admission and antibiotic therapy.

Current management of occult bacteremia in infants

OBJECTIVES

To summarize the main clinical entities associated with fever without source (FWS) in infants, as well as the clinical management of children with occult bacteremia, emphasizing laboratory tests and empirical antibiotics.

SOURCES

A non-systematic review was conducted in the following databases--PubMed, EMBASE, and SciELO, between 2006 and 2015.

SUMMARY OF THE FINDINGS

The prevalence of occult bacteremia has been decreasing dramatically in the past few years, due to conjugated vaccination against Streptococcus pneumoniae and Neisseria meningitidis. Additionally, fewer requests for complete blood count and blood cultures have been made for children older than 3 months presenting with FWS. Urinary tract infection is the most prevalent bacterial infection in children with FWS. Some known algorithms, such as Boston and Rochester, can guide the initial risk stratification for occult bacteremia in febrile infants younger than 3 months.

CONCLUSIONS

There is no single algorithm to estimate the risk of occult bacteremia in febrile infants, but pediatricians should strongly consider outpatient management in fully vaccinated infants older than 3 months with FWS and good general status. Updated data about the incidence of occult bacteremia in this environment after conjugated vaccination are needed.

Interventions to improve antibiotic prescribing practices for hospital inpatients

BACKGROUND

The first publication of this review in Issue 3, 2005 included studies up to November 2003. This update adds studies to December 2006 and focuses on application of a new method for meta-analysis of interrupted time series studies and application of new Cochrane Effective Practice and Organisation of Care (EPOC) Risk of Bias criteria to all studies in the review, including those studies in the previously published version. The aim of the review is to evaluate the impact of interventions from the perspective of antibiotic stewardship. The two objectives of antibiotic stewardship are first to ensure effective treatment for patients with bacterial infection and second support professionals and patients to reduce unnecessary use and minimize collateral damage.

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the effectiveness of professional interventions that, alone or in combination, are effective in antibiotic stewardship for hospital inpatients, to evaluate the impact of these interventions on reducing the incidence of antimicrobial-resistant pathogens or Clostridium difficile infection and their impact on clinical outcome.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), MEDLINE, EMBASE from 1980 to December 2006 and the EPOC specialized register in July 2007 and February 2009 and bibliographies of retrieved articles. The main comparison is between interventions that had a restrictive element and those that were purely persuasive. Restrictive interventions were implemented through restriction of the freedom of prescribers to select some antibiotics. Persuasive interventions used one or more of the following methods for changing professional behaviour: dissemination of educational resources, reminders, audit and feedback, or educational outreach. Restrictive interventions could contain persuasive elements.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included randomized clinical trials (RCTs), controlled clinical trials (CCT), controlled before-after (CBA) and interrupted time series studies (ITS). Interventions included any professional or structural interventions as defined by EPOC. The intervention had to include a component that aimed to improve antibiotic prescribing to hospital inpatients, either by increasing effective treatment or by reducing unnecessary treatment. The results had to include interpretable data about the effect of the intervention on antibiotic prescribing or microbial outcomes or relevant clinical outcomes.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two authors extracted data and assessed quality. We performed meta-regression of ITS studies to compare the results of persuasive and restrictive interventions. Persuasive interventions advised physicians about how to prescribe or gave them feedback about how they prescribed. Restrictive interventions put a limit on how they prescribed; for example, physicians had to have approval from an infection specialist in order to prescribe an antibiotic. We standardized the results of some ITS studies so that they are on the same scale (percent change in outcome), thereby facilitating comparisons of different interventions. To do this, we used the change in level and change in slope to estimate the effect size with increasing time after the intervention (one month, six months, one year, etc) as the percent change in level at each time point. We did not extrapolate beyond the end of data collection after the intervention. The meta-regression was performed using standard weighted linear regression with the standard errors of the coefficients adjusted where necessary.

MAIN RESULTS

For this update we included 89 studies that reported 95 interventions. Of the 89 studies, 56 were ITSs (of which 4 were controlled ITSs), 25 were RCT (of which 5 were cluster-RCTs), 5 were CBAs and 3 were CCTs (of which 1 was a cluster-CCT).Most (80/95, 84%) of the interventions targeted the antibiotic prescribed (choice of antibiotic, timing of first dose and route of administration). The remaining 15 interventions aimed to change exposure of patients to antibiotics by targeting the decision to treat or the duration of treatment. Reliable data about impact on antibiotic prescribing data were available for 76 interventions (44 persuasive, 24 restrictive and 8 structural). For the persuasive interventions, the median change in antibiotic prescribing was 42.3% for the ITSs, 31.6% for the controlled ITSs, 17.7% for the CBAs, 3.5% for the cluster-RCTs and 24.7% for the RCTs. The restrictive interventions had a median effect size of 34.7% for the ITSs, 17.1% for the CBAs and 40.5% for the RCTs. The structural interventions had a median effect of 13.3% for the RCTs and 23.6% for the cluster-RCTs. Data about impact on microbial outcomes were available for 21 interventions but only 6 of these also had reliable data about impact on antibiotic prescribing.Meta-analysis of 52 ITS studies was used to compare restrictive versus purely persuasive interventions. Restrictive interventions had significantly greater impact on prescribing outcomes at one month (32%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2% to 61%, P = 0.03) and on microbial outcomes at 6 months (53%, 95% CI 31% to 75%, P = 0.001) but there were no significant differences at 12 or 24 months. Interventions intended to decrease excessive prescribing were associated with reduction in Clostridium difficile infections and colonization or infection with aminoglycoside- or cephalosporin-resistant gram-negative bacteria, methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus and vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus faecalis. Meta-analysis of clinical outcomes showed that four interventions intended to increase effective prescribing for pneumonia were associated with significant reduction in mortality (risk ratio 0.89, 95% CI 0.82 to 0.97), whereas nine interventions intended to decrease excessive prescribing were not associated with significant increase in mortality (risk ratio 0.92, 95% CI 0.81 to 1.06).

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

The results show that interventions to reduce excessive antibiotic prescribing to hospital inpatients can reduce antimicrobial resistance or hospital-acquired infections, and interventions to increase effective prescribing can improve clinical outcome. This update provides more evidence about unintended clinical consequences of interventions and about the effect of interventions to reduce exposure of patients to antibiotics. The meta-analysis supports the use of restrictive interventions when the need is urgent, but suggests that persuasive and restrictive interventions are equally effective after six months.