Quantification of Treatment Effect Modification on Both an Additive and Multiplicative Scale

Temporal trends in the prevalence and incidence of depression and the interplay of comorbidities in patients with young- and usual-onset type 2 diabetes from the USA and the UK

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

We aimed to investigate the prevalence and incidence of depression, and the interplay of cardiometabolic comorbidities, in the differentiation of depression risk between young-onset diabetes (diagnosis at age <40 years) and usual-onset diabetes (diagnosis at age ≥40 years).

METHODS

Using electronic medical records from the UK and USA, retrospective cohorts of adults with incident type 2 diabetes diagnosed between 2006 and 2017 were examined. Trends in the prevalence and incidence of depression, and risk of developing depression, in participants with young-onset type 2 diabetes compared with usual-onset type 2 diabetes were assessed separately by sex and comorbidity status.

RESULTS

In total 230,932/1,143,122 people with type 2 diabetes from the UK/USA (mean age 58/60 years, proportion of men 57%/46%) were examined. The prevalence of depression in the UK/USA increased from 29% (95% CI 28, 30)/22% (95% CI 21, 23) in 2006 to 43% (95% CI 42, 44)/29% (95% CI 28, 29) in 2017, with the prevalence being similar across all age groups. A similar increasing trend was observed for incidence rates. In the UK, compared with people aged ≥50 years with or without comorbidity, 18-39-year-old men and women had 23-57% and 20-55% significantly higher risks of depression, respectively. In the USA, compared with those aged ≥60 years with or without comorbidity, 18-39-year-old men and women had 5-17% and 8-37% significantly higher risks of depression, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

Depression risk has been increasing in people with incident type 2 diabetes in the UK and USA, particularly among those with young-onset type 2 diabetes, irrespective of other comorbidities. This suggests that proactive mental health assessment from the time of type 2 diabetes diagnosis in primary care is essential for effective clinical management of people with type 2 diabetes.

Gout and Hospital Admission for Ambulatory Care-Sensitive Conditions: Risks and Trajectories

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the risks and trajectories of hospital admission for ambulatory care-sensitive conditions (ACSCs) in gout.

METHODS

Among individuals aged 35 years to 85 years residing in Skåne, Sweden, in 2005, those with no doctor-diagnosed gout during 1998 to 2005 (n = 576,659) were followed from January 1, 2006, until a hospital admission for an ACSC, death, relocation outside Skåne, or December 31, 2016. Treating a new gout diagnosis (International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision, code M10) as a time-varying exposure, we used Cox proportional and additive hazard models to estimate the effects of gout on hospital admissions for ACSCs. We investigated the trajectory of hospital admissions for ACSCs from 3 years before to 3 years after gout diagnosis using generalized estimating equations and group-based trajectory modeling in an age-and sex-matched cohort study.

RESULTS

Gout was associated with a 41% increased rate of hospital admission for ACSCs (hazard ratio 1.41, 95% CI 1.35-1.47), corresponding to 121 (95% CI 104-138) more hospital admissions for ACSCs per 10,000 person-years compared with those without gout. Our trajectory analysis showed that higher rates of hospital admission for ACSCs among persons with gout were observed from 3 years before to 3 years after diagnosis, with the highest prevalence rate ratio (2.22, 95% CI 1.92-2.53) at the 3-month period after diagnosis. We identified 3 classes with distinct trajectories of hospital admissions for ACSCs among patients with gout: almost none (88.5%), low-rising (9.7%), and moderate-sharply rising (1.8%). The Charlson Comorbidity Index was the most important predictor of trajectory class membership.

CONCLUSION

Increased risk of hospital admissions for ACSCs in gout highlights the need for better management of the disease through outpatient care, especially among foreign-born, older patients with comorbidities.

Osteoarthritis and risk of hospitalization for ambulatory care-sensitive conditions: a general population-based cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To determine the association between OA and risk of hospitalization for ambulatory care-sensitive conditions (HACSCs).

METHODS

We included all individuals aged 40-85 years who resided in Skåne, Sweden on 31 December 2005 with at least one healthcare consultation during 1998-2005 (n = 515 256). We identified those with a main diagnosis of OA between 1 January 1998 and 31 December 2016. People were followed from 1 January 2006 until an HACSC, death, relocation outside Skåne, or 31 December 2016 (whichever occurred first). OA status was treated as a time-varying covariate (those diagnosed before 1 January 2006 considered as exposed for whole study period). We assessed relative [hazard ratios (HRs) using Cox proportional hazard model] and absolute (hazard difference using additive hazard model) effects of OA on HACSCs adjusted for potential confounders.

RESULTS

Crude incidence rates of HACSCs were 239 (95% CI: 235, 242) and 151 (150, 152) per 10 000 person-years among OA and non-OA persons, respectively. The OA persons had an increased risk of HACSCs [HR (95% CI) 1.11 (1.09, 1.13)] and its subcategories of medical conditions except chronic obstructive pulmonary disease [HR (95% CI) 0.86 (0.81, 0.90)]. There were 20 (95% CI: 16, 24) more HACSCs per 10 000 person-years in OA compared with non-OA persons. While HRs for knee and hip OA were generally comparable, only knee OA was associated with increased risk of hospitalization for diabetes.

CONCLUSION

OA is associated with an increased risk of HACSCs, highlighting the urgent need to improve outpatient care for OA patients.

The joint effects of clinically relevant depressive symptoms and cardiovascular risk factors on incident cardiovascular disease among older adults in the community

OBJECTIVE

To determine if there is a synergistic effect between clinically relevant depressive symptoms and cardiovascular risk factors that disproportionately increases the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) among older adults with depressive symptoms.

METHODS

Data were obtained from the Longitudinal Aging Study Amsterdam, a longitudinal cohort study. N = 3091 respondents with up to seven years of follow-up were included. Incident CVD was based on self-report, medication use, general practitioners' diagnoses and causes of death. A score of ≥16 points on the Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression Scale indicated clinically relevant depressive symptoms. Risk factors included were sex, education, obesity, smoking, alcohol use, physical inactivity and diabetes mellitus. Data were analysed with Cox regression models. Measures of multiplicative and additive interaction were calculated to determine if the presence of both depressive symptoms and a risk factor amplified the risk of CVD.

RESULTS

Of all participants, 12.6% had clinically relevant depressive symptoms and, after a median follow-up of six years, 15.7% developed CVD. Only the additive interaction between physical inactivity and depressive symptoms was statistically significant and explained 40.6% of the CVD risk among inactive persons with depressive symptoms.

CONCLUSION

In the general population, we did not detect synergistic effects for most risk factors. However, older adults with clinically relevant depressive symptoms and a physically inactive lifestyle appeared to be at a particularly high risk to develop CVD and may represent an important target for cardiovascular prevention.

Effects of exposure to surrounding green, air pollution and traffic noise with non-accidental and cause-specific mortality in the Dutch national cohort

BACKGROUND

Everyday people are exposed to multiple environmental factors, such as surrounding green, air pollution and traffic noise. These exposures are generally spatially correlated. Hence, when estimating associations of surrounding green, air pollution or traffic noise with health outcomes, the other exposures should be taken into account. The aim of this study was to evaluate associations of long-term residential exposure to surrounding green, air pollution and traffic noise with mortality.

METHODS

We followed approximately 10.5 million adults (aged ≥ 30 years) living in the Netherlands from 1 January 2013 until 31 December 2018. We used Cox proportional hazard models to evaluate associations of residential surrounding green (including the average Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) in buffers of 300 and 1000 m), annual average ambient air pollutant concentrations [including particulate matter (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2)] and traffic noise with non-accidental and cause-specific mortality, adjusting for potential confounders.

RESULTS

In single-exposure models, surrounding green was negatively associated with all mortality outcomes, while air pollution was positively associated with all outcomes. In two-exposure models, associations of surrounding green and air pollution attenuated but remained. For respiratory mortality, in a two-exposure model with NO2 and NDVI 300 m, the HR of NO2 was 1.040 (95%CI: 1.022, 1.059) per IQR increase (8.3 µg/m3) and the HR of NDVI 300 m was 0.964 (95%CI: 0.952, 0.976) per IQR increase (0.14). Road-traffic noise was positively associated with lung cancer mortality only, also after adjustment for air pollution or surrounding green.

CONCLUSIONS

Lower surrounding green and higher air pollution were associated with a higher risk of non-accidental and cause-specific mortality. Studies including only one of these correlated exposures may overestimate the associations with mortality of that exposure.

Multiple versus single arterial grafting in the elderly: a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials and propensity score studies

INTRODUCTION

The benefit of adding a second arterial conduit is still controversial, mainly in specific subgroups. We conducted a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and propensity score (PS) studies comparing survival and early results in elderly patients who underwent coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) with multiple (MAG) versus single arterial grafting (SAG).

EVIDENCE ACQUISITION

MEDLINE, Web of Science and Cochrane Library were used to find relevant literature (1960-April 2020). Survival at a ≥ 1-year follow-up and early outcomes were evaluated. Outcomes were collected from matched samples or PS adjusted analysis: hazard ratio (HR) along with their variance, frequencies or odds ratios. Random effect models were used to compute combined statistical measures and 95% confidence intervals (CI) through generic inverse variance method (time-to-event) or Mantel-Haenszel method (binary events).

EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS

Eleven PS cohorts and 1 RCT comprising > 18,800 patients older than 70 (>6200 MAG and >12,500 SAG) were included in this meta-analysis. MAG was associated with lower long-term mortality (pooled HR: 0.81, 95%CI: 0.72-0.91, p<0.01, I2=64%) in the absence of higher risk of early mortality (pooled OR: 0.74, 95%CI: 0.44 to 1.25, p=0.27, I2=0%). In a meta-regression, MAG survival advantage was more pronounced in studies with a higher MAG usage rate (β = -0.0052, p=0.021).

CONCLUSIONS

Current evidence suggests that advanced age should not limit MAG's use considering its benefits in long-term survival. Of note, an individualized patient selection for this approach is warranted.

Association between right-sided cardiac function and ultrasound-based pulmonary congestion on acutely decompensated heart failure: findings from a pooled analysis of four cohort studies

BACKGROUND

Right ventricular (RV) dysfunction and RV-pulmonary artery (PA) uncoupling are associated with the development of pulmonary congestion during exercise. However, there is limited information regarding the association between these right-sided cardiac parameters and pulmonary congestion in acutely decompensated heart failure (HF).

METHODS

We performed an individual patient meta-analysis from four cohort studies of hospitalized patients with HF who had available lung ultrasound (B-lines) data on admission and/or at discharge. RV function was assessed by tricuspid annular plane systolic excursion (TAPSE), RV-PA coupling was defined as the ratio of TAPSE to PA systolic pressure (PASP).

RESULTS

Admission and discharge cohort included 319 patients (75.8 ± 10.1 years, 46% women) and 221 patients (77.9 ± 9.0 years, 47% women), respectively. Overall, higher TAPSE was associated with higher ejection fraction, lower PASP, b-type natriuretic peptide and B-line counts. By multivariable analysis, worse RV function or RV-PA coupling was associated with higher B-line counts on admission and at discharge, and with a less reduction in B-line counts from admission to discharge. Higher B-line counts at discharge were associated with a higher risk of the composite of all-cause mortality and/or HF re-hospitalization [adjusted-HR 1.13 (1.09-1.16), p < 0.001]. Furthermore, the absolute risk increase related to high B-line counts at discharge was higher in patients with lower TAPSE.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with acutely decompensated HF, impaired RV function and RV-PA coupling were associated with severe pulmonary congestion on admission, and less resolution of pulmonary congestion during hospital stay. Worse prognosis related to residual pulmonary congestion was enhanced in patients with RV dysfunction. TAPSE, tricuspid annular plane systolic excursion; PASP, pulmonary artery systolic pressure.

Surrounding green, air pollution, traffic noise exposure and non-accidental and cause-specific mortality

BACKGROUND

Most previous studies that investigated associations of surrounding green, air pollution or traffic noise with mortality focused on single exposures.

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to evaluate combined associations of long-term residential exposure to surrounding green, air pollution and traffic noise with total non-accidental and cause-specific mortality.

METHODS

We linked a national health survey (Public Health Monitor, PHM) conducted in 2012 to the Dutch longitudinal mortality database. Subjects of the survey who were 30 years or older on 1 January 2013 (n = 339,633) were followed from 1 January 2013 till 31 December 2017. We used Cox proportional hazard models to evaluate associations of residential surrounding green (including the average Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) in buffers of 300 m and 1000 m), annual average air pollutant concentrations (including particulate matter (PM₁₀, PM_2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂)) and traffic noise with non-accidental, circulatory disease, respiratory disease, lung cancer and neurodegenerative disease mortality.

RESULTS

We observed 26,886 non-accidental deaths over 1.627.365 person-years of follow-up. Surrounding green, air pollution and traffic noise exposure were not significantly associated with non-accidental or cause-specific mortality. For non-accidental mortality, we found a hazard ratio (HR) of 0.99 (0.98, 1.01) per IQR increase in NDVI 300 m, a HR of 0.99 (95% CI: 0.97, 1.01) per IQR increase in NO₂, a HR of 0.98 (0.97, 1.00) per IQR increase in PM_2.5 and a HR of 0.99 (95% CI: 0.97, 1.01) per IQR increase in road-traffic noise. Analyses restricted to non-movers or excluding subjects aged 85+ years did not change the findings.

CONCLUSION

We found no evidence for associations of long-term residential exposures to surrounding green, air pollution and traffic noise with non-accidental or cause-specific mortality in a large population based survey in the Netherlands, possibly related to the relatively short follow-up period.

Left ventricular ejection fraction and adjudicated, cause-specific hospitalizations after myocardial infarction complicated by heart failure or left ventricular dysfunction

BACKGROUND

Reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) after acute myocardial infarction (MI) increases risk of cardiovascular (CV) hospitalizations, but evidence regarding its association with non-CV outcome is scarce. We investigated the association between LVEF and adjudicated cause-specific hospitalizations following MI complicated with low LVEF or overt heart failure (HF).

METHODS

In an individual patient data meta-analysis of 19,740 patients from 3 large randomized trials, Fine and Gray competing risk modeling was performed to study the association between LVEF and hospitalization types.

RESULTS

The most common cause of hospitalization was non-CV (n = 2,368 for HF, n = 1,554 for MI, and n = 3,703 for non-CV). All types of hospitalizations significantly increased with decreasing LVEF. The absolute risk increase associated with LVEF ≪25% (vs LVEF ≫35%) was 15.5% (95% CI 13.4-17.5) for HF, 4.7% (95% CI 3.0-6.4) for MI, and 10.4% (95% CI 8.0-12.8) for non-CV hospitalization. On a relative scale, after adjusting for confounders, each 5-point decrease in LVEF was associated with an increased risk of HF (hazard ratio [HR] 1.15, 95% CI 1.12-1.18), MI (HR 1.06, 95% CI 1.03-1.10), and non-CV hospitalization (HR 1.03, 95% CI 1.01-1.05).

CONCLUSIONS

In a high-risk population with complicated acute MI, the absolute risk increase in non-CV hospitalizations associated with LVEF ≪25% was two thirds of the absolute risk increase in HF hospitalizations and twice the absolute risk increase in MI hospitalizations. LVEF was an independent predictor of all types of hospitalization and appears as an integrative marker of sicker patient status.

Evaluation of Evidence of Statistical Support and Corroboration of Subgroup Claims in Randomized Clinical Trials

Importance

Many published randomized clinical trials (RCTs) make claims for subgroup differences.

Objective

To evaluate how often subgroup claims reported in the abstracts of RCTs are actually supported by statistical evidence (P < .05 from an interaction test) and corroborated by subsequent RCTs and meta-analyses.

Data Sources

This meta-epidemiological survey examines data sets of trials with at least 1 subgroup claim, including Subgroup Analysis of Trials Is Rarely Easy (SATIRE) articles and Discontinuation of Randomized Trials (DISCO) articles. We used Scopus (updated July 2016) to search for English-language articles citing each of the eligible index articles with at least 1 subgroup finding in the abstract.

Study Selection

Articles with a subgroup claim in the abstract with or without evidence of statistical heterogeneity (P < .05 from an interaction test) in the text and articles attempting to corroborate the subgroup findings.

Data Extraction and Synthesis

Study characteristics of trials with at least 1 subgroup claim in the abstract were recorded. Two reviewers extracted the data necessary to calculate subgroup-level effect sizes, standard errors, and the P values for interaction. For individual RCTs and meta-analyses that attempted to corroborate the subgroup findings from the index articles, trial characteristics were extracted. Cochran Q test was used to reevaluate heterogeneity with the data from all available trials.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The number of subgroup claims in the abstracts of RCTs, the number of subgroup claims in the abstracts of RCTs with statistical support (subgroup findings), and the number of subgroup findings corroborated by subsequent RCTs and meta-analyses.

Results

Sixty-four eligible RCTs made a total of 117 subgroup claims in their abstracts. Of these 117 claims, only 46 (39.3%) in 33 articles had evidence of statistically significant heterogeneity from a test for interaction. In addition, out of these 46 subgroup findings, only 16 (34.8%) ensured balance between randomization groups within the subgroups (eg, through stratified randomization), 13 (28.3%) entailed a prespecified subgroup analysis, and 1 (2.2%) was adjusted for multiple testing. Only 5 (10.9%) of the 46 subgroup findings had at least 1 subsequent pure corroboration attempt by a meta-analysis or an RCT. In all 5 cases, the corroboration attempts found no evidence of a statistically significant subgroup effect. In addition, all effect sizes from meta-analyses were attenuated toward the null.

Conclusions and Relevance

A minority of subgroup claims made in the abstracts of RCTs are supported by their own data (ie, a significant interaction effect). For those that have statistical support (P < .05 from an interaction test), most fail to meet other best practices for subgroup tests, including prespecification, stratified randomization, and adjustment for multiple testing. Attempts to corroborate statistically significant subgroup differences are rare; when done, the initially observed subgroup differences are not reproduced.