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Rees CA, Ideh RC, Kisenge R, Kamara J, Coleman-Nekar YJG, Samma A, Godfrey E, Manji HK, Sudfeld CR, Westbrook AL, Niescierenko M, Morris CR, Whitney CG, Breiman RF, Duggan CP, Manji KP. Identifying neonates at risk for post-discharge mortality in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, and Monrovia, Liberia: Derivation and internal validation of a novel risk assessment tool. BMJ Open 2024; 14:e079389. [PMID: 38365298 PMCID: PMC10875550 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2023-079389] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/31/2023] [Accepted: 02/06/2024] [Indexed: 02/18/2024] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION The immediate period after hospital discharge carries a large burden of childhood mortality in sub-Saharan Africa. Our objective was to derive and internally validate a risk assessment tool to identify neonates discharged from the neonatal ward at risk for 60-day post-discharge mortality. METHODS We conducted a prospective observational cohort study of neonates discharged from Muhimbili National Hospital in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, and John F Kennedy Medical Centre in Monrovia, Liberia. Research staff called caregivers to ascertain vital status up to 60 days after discharge. We conducted multivariable logistic regression analyses with best subset selection to identify socioeconomic, demographic, clinical, and anthropometric factors associated with post-discharge mortality. We used adjusted log coefficients to assign points to each variable and internally validated our tool with bootstrap validation with 500 repetitions. RESULTS There were 2344 neonates discharged and 2310 (98.5%) had post-discharge outcomes available. The median (IQR) age at discharge was 8 (4, 15) days; 1238 (53.6%) were male. In total, 71 (3.1%) died during follow-up (26.8% within 7 days of discharge). Leaving against medical advice (adjusted OR [aOR] 5.62, 95% CI 2.40 to 12.10) and diagnosis of meconium aspiration (aOR 6.98, 95% CI 1.69 to 21.70) conferred the greatest risk for post-discharge mortality. The risk assessment tool included nine variables (total possible score=63) and had an optimism corrected area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.77 (95% CI 0.75 to 0.80). A score of ≥6 was most optimal (sensitivity 68.3% [95% CI 64.8% to 71.5%], specificity 72.1% [95% CI 71.5% to 72.7%]). CONCLUSIONS A small number of factors predicted all-cause, 60-day mortality after discharge from neonatal wards in Tanzania and Liberia. After external validation, this risk assessment tool may facilitate clinical decision making for eligibility for discharge and the direction of resources to follow-up high risk neonates.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chris A Rees
- Division of Pediatric Emergency Medicine, Emory University School of Medicine, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Children's Healthcare of Atlanta, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
| | - Readon C Ideh
- Department of Pediatrics, John F Kennedy Medical Center, Monrovia, Liberia
| | - Rodrick Kisenge
- Department of Pediatrics and Child Health, Muhimbili University of Health and Allied Sciences, Dar es Salaam, United Republic of Tanzania
| | - Julia Kamara
- Department of Pediatrics, John F Kennedy Medical Center, Monrovia, Liberia
| | | | - Abraham Samma
- Department of Pediatrics and Child Health, Muhimbili University of Health and Allied Sciences, Dar es Salaam, United Republic of Tanzania
| | - Evance Godfrey
- Department of Pediatrics and Child Health, Muhimbili University of Health and Allied Sciences, Dar es Salaam, United Republic of Tanzania
| | - Hussein K Manji
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Muhimbili University of Health and Allied Sciences, Dar es Salaam, Dar es Salaam, United Republic of Tanzania
- Accident and Emergency Department, The Aga Khan Health Services, Dar es Salaam, Dar es Salaam, United Republic of Tanzania
| | - Christopher R Sudfeld
- Departments of Nutrition and Global Health and Population, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Boston, USA
| | - Adrianna L Westbrook
- Pediatric Biostatistics Core, Department of Pediatrics, Emory University School of Medicine, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
| | - Michelle Niescierenko
- Division of Emergency Medicine, Boston Children's Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
- Department of Pediatrics and Emergency Medicine, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Claudia R Morris
- Division of Pediatric Emergency Medicine, Emory University School of Medicine, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Children's Healthcare of Atlanta, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
| | - Cynthia G Whitney
- Emory Global Health Institute, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
| | - Robert F Breiman
- Hubert Department of Global Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
- Infectious Diseases and Oncology Research Institute, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Christopher P Duggan
- Departments of Nutrition and Global Health and Population, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Boston, USA
- Center for Nutrition, Children's Hospital Boston, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Karim P Manji
- Department of Pediatrics and Child Health, Muhimbili University of Health and Allied Sciences, Dar es Salaam, United Republic of Tanzania
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Rees CA, Igunza KA, Madewell ZJ, Akelo V, Onyango D, El Arifeen S, Gurley ES, Hossain MZ, Rahman A, Alam M, Scott JAG, Assefa N, Madrid L, Belachew A, Leulseged H, Kotloff KL, Sow SO, Tapia MD, Keita AM, Sidibe D, Sitoe A, Varo R, Ajanovic S, Bassat Q, Mandomando I, Tippett Barr BA, Ogbuanu I, Cain CJ, Bassey IA, Luke R, Gassama K, Madhi S, Dangor Z, Mahtab S, Velaphi S, du Toit J, Mutevedzi PC, Blau DM, Breiman RF, Whitney CG. Provider adherence to clinical care recommendations for infants and children who died in seven low- and middle-income countries in the Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance (CHAMPS) network. EClinicalMedicine 2023; 63:102198. [PMID: 37692079 PMCID: PMC10484959 DOI: 10.1016/j.eclinm.2023.102198] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/21/2023] [Revised: 08/11/2023] [Accepted: 08/18/2023] [Indexed: 09/12/2023] Open
Abstract
Background Most childhood deaths globally are considered preventable through high-quality clinical care, which includes adherence to clinical care recommendations. Our objective was to describe adherence to World Health Organization recommendations for the management of leading causes of death among children. Methods We conducted a retrospective, descriptive study examining clinical data for children aged 1-59 months who were hospitalized and died in a Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance (CHAMPS) catchment, December 2016-June 2021. Catchment areas included: Baliakandi and Faridpur, Bangladesh; Kersa, Haramaya, and Harar, Ethiopia; Kisumu and Siaya, Kenya; Bamako, Mali; Manhiça and Quelimane, Mozambique; Makeni, Sierra Leone; Soweto, South Africa. We reviewed medical records of those who died from lower respiratory tract infections, sepsis, malnutrition, malaria, and diarrheal diseases to determine the proportion who received recommended treatments and compared adherence by hospitalization duration. Findings CHAMPS enrolled 460 hospitalized children who died from the leading causes (median age 12 months, 53.0% male). Median hospital admission was 31 h. There were 51.0% (n = 127/249) of children who died from lower respiratory tract infections received supplemental oxygen. Administration of intravenous fluids for sepsis (15.9%, n = 36/226) and supplemental feeds for malnutrition (14.0%, n = 18/129) were uncommon. There were 51.4% (n = 55/107) of those who died from malaria received antimalarials. Of the 80 children who died from diarrheal diseases, 76.2% received intravenous fluids. Those admitted for ≥24 h more commonly received antibiotics for lower respiratory tract infections and sepsis, supplemental feeds for malnutrition, and intravenous fluids for sepsis than those admitted <24 h. Interpretation Provision of recommended clinical care for leading causes of death among young children was suboptimal. Further studies are needed to understand the reasons for deficits in clinical care recommendation adherence. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chris A. Rees
- Department of Pediatrics, Emory University School of Medicine, Atlanta, GA, United States of America
- Children's Healthcare of Atlanta, Atlanta, GA, United States of America
| | | | - Zachary J. Madewell
- Center for Global Health, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, United States of America
| | - Victor Akelo
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention-Kenya, Kisumu, Kenya
| | | | - Shams El Arifeen
- International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research Bangladesh (icddr,b), Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Emily S. Gurley
- International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research Bangladesh (icddr,b), Dhaka, Bangladesh
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, United States of America
| | - Mohammad Zahid Hossain
- International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research Bangladesh (icddr,b), Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Afruna Rahman
- International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research Bangladesh (icddr,b), Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Muntasir Alam
- International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research Bangladesh (icddr,b), Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | | | - Nega Assefa
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London, UK
- College of Health and Medical Sciences, Haramaya University, Harar, Ethiopia
| | - Lola Madrid
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London, UK
| | - Anteneh Belachew
- College of Health and Medical Sciences, Haramaya University, Harar, Ethiopia
- Hararghe Health Research, Haramaya University, Ethiopia
| | - Haleluya Leulseged
- College of Health and Medical Sciences, Haramaya University, Harar, Ethiopia
- Hararghe Health Research, Haramaya University, Ethiopia
| | - Karen L. Kotloff
- Department of Pediatrics, Center for Vaccine Development and Global Health, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, United States of America
| | - Samba O. Sow
- Centre pour le Développement des Vaccins-Mali, Bamako, Mali
| | - Milagritos D. Tapia
- Department of Pediatrics, Center for Vaccine Development and Global Health, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, United States of America
| | | | | | - Antonio Sitoe
- Centro de Investigação em Saúde de Manhiça [CISM], Maputo, Mozambique
| | - Rosauro Varo
- Centro de Investigação em Saúde de Manhiça [CISM], Maputo, Mozambique
- ISGlobal - Hospital Clínic, Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Sara Ajanovic
- Centro de Investigação em Saúde de Manhiça [CISM], Maputo, Mozambique
- ISGlobal - Hospital Clínic, Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Quique Bassat
- Centro de Investigação em Saúde de Manhiça [CISM], Maputo, Mozambique
- ISGlobal - Hospital Clínic, Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
- ICREA, Pg. Lluís Companys 23, 08010, Barcelona, Spain
- Pediatrics Department, Hospital Sant Joan de Déu, Universitat de Barcelona, Esplugues, Barcelona, Spain
- Consorcio de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain
| | - Inácio Mandomando
- Centro de Investigação em Saúde de Manhiça [CISM], Maputo, Mozambique
- ISGlobal - Hospital Clínic, Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
- Instituto Nacional de Saúde, Ministério de Saúde, Maputo, Moçambique
| | | | | | | | | | - Ronita Luke
- Ministry of Health and Sanitation, Freetown, Sierra Leone
| | | | - Shabir Madhi
- South African Medical Research Council Vaccines and Infectious Diseases Analytics Research Unit, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Ziyaad Dangor
- South African Medical Research Council Vaccines and Infectious Diseases Analytics Research Unit, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Sana Mahtab
- South African Medical Research Council Vaccines and Infectious Diseases Analytics Research Unit, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Sithembiso Velaphi
- Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, Chris Hani Baragwanath Academic Hospital, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Jeanie du Toit
- South African Medical Research Council Vaccines and Infectious Diseases Analytics Research Unit, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Portia C. Mutevedzi
- Global Health Institute, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, United States of America
| | - Dianna M. Blau
- Center for Global Health, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, United States of America
| | - Robert F. Breiman
- Hubert Department of Global Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, United States of America
| | - Cynthia G. Whitney
- Global Health Institute, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, United States of America
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Rees CA, Colbourn T, Hooli S, King C, Lufesi N, McCollum ED, Mwansambo C, Cutland C, Madhi SA, Nunes M, Matthew JL, Addo-Yobo E, Chisaka N, Hassan M, Hibberd PL, Jeena PM, Lozano JM, MacLeod WB, Patel A, Thea DM, Nguyen NTV, Kartasasmita CB, Lucero M, Awasthi S, Bavdekar A, Chou M, Nymadawa P, Pape JW, Paranhos-Baccala G, Picot VS, Rakoto-Andrianarivelo M, Rouzier V, Russomando G, Sylla M, Vanhems P, Wang J, Asghar R, Banajeh S, Iqbal I, Maulen-Radovan I, Mino-Leon G, Saha SK, Santosham M, Singhi S, Basnet S, Strand TA, Bhatnagar S, Wadhwa N, Lodha R, Aneja S, Clara AW, Campbell H, Nair H, Falconer J, Qazi SA, Nisar YB, Neuman MI. Derivation and validation of a novel risk assessment tool to identify children aged 2–59 months at risk of hospitalised pneumonia-related mortality in 20 countries. BMJ Glob Health 2022; 7:bmjgh-2021-008143. [PMID: 35428680 PMCID: PMC9014031 DOI: 10.1136/bmjgh-2021-008143] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/30/2021] [Accepted: 03/20/2022] [Indexed: 11/27/2022] Open
Abstract
Introduction Existing risk assessment tools to identify children at risk of hospitalised pneumonia-related mortality have shown suboptimal discriminatory value during external validation. Our objective was to derive and validate a novel risk assessment tool to identify children aged 2–59 months at risk of hospitalised pneumonia-related mortality across various settings. Methods We used primary, baseline, patient-level data from 11 studies, including children evaluated for pneumonia in 20 low-income and middle-income countries. Patients with complete data were included in a logistic regression model to assess the association of candidate variables with the outcome hospitalised pneumonia-related mortality. Adjusted log coefficients were calculated for each candidate variable and assigned weighted points to derive the Pneumonia Research Partnership to Assess WHO Recommendations (PREPARE) risk assessment tool. We used bootstrapped selection with 200 repetitions to internally validate the PREPARE risk assessment tool. Results A total of 27 388 children were included in the analysis (mean age 14.0 months, pneumonia-related case fatality ratio 3.1%). The PREPARE risk assessment tool included patient age, sex, weight-for-age z-score, body temperature, respiratory rate, unconsciousness or decreased level of consciousness, convulsions, cyanosis and hypoxaemia at baseline. The PREPARE risk assessment tool had good discriminatory value when internally validated (area under the curve 0.83, 95% CI 0.81 to 0.84). Conclusions The PREPARE risk assessment tool had good discriminatory ability for identifying children at risk of hospitalised pneumonia-related mortality in a large, geographically diverse dataset. After external validation, this tool may be implemented in various settings to identify children at risk of hospitalised pneumonia-related mortality.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chris A Rees
- Division of Pediatric Emergency Medicine, Emory University School of Medicine, Children's Healthcare of Atlanta, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
| | - Tim Colbourn
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - Shubhada Hooli
- Section of Pediatric Emergency Medicine, Texas Children's Hospital, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, Texas, USA
| | - Carina King
- Department of Global Public Health, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Norman Lufesi
- Acute Respiratory Illness Unit, Government of Malawi Ministry of Health, Lilongwe, Malawi
| | - Eric D McCollum
- Global Program in Respiratory Sciences, Eudowood Division of Pediatric Respiratory Sciences, Department of Pediatrics, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
| | - Charles Mwansambo
- Acute Respiratory Illness Unit, Government of Malawi Ministry of Health, Lilongwe, Malawi
| | - Clare Cutland
- South African Medical Research Council: Vaccines and Infectious Diseases Analytics Research Unit, School of Pathology, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg-Braamfontein, South Africa
| | - Shabir Ahmed Madhi
- South African Medical Research Council: Vaccines and Infectious Diseases Analytics Research Unit, School of Pathology, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg-Braamfontein, South Africa
| | - Marta Nunes
- South African Medical Research Council: Vaccines and Infectious Diseases Analytics Research Unit, School of Pathology, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg-Braamfontein, South Africa
| | - Joseph L Matthew
- Advanced Pediatrics Centre, Postgraduate Institute of Medical Education and Research, Chandigarh, India
| | | | - Noel Chisaka
- World Bank, World Bank, Washington, District of Columbia, USA
| | - Mumtaz Hassan
- Department of Pediatrics, Children's Hospital, Islamabad, Pakistan
| | - Patricia L Hibberd
- Department of Global Health, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Prakash M Jeena
- Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, University of KwaZulu-Natal Nelson R Mandela School of Medicine, Durban, South Africa
| | - Juan M Lozano
- Division of Medical and Population Health Science Education and Research, Florida International University, Miami, Florida, USA
| | - William B MacLeod
- Department of Global Health, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Archana Patel
- Lata Medical Research Foundation, Nagpur and Datta Meghe Institute of Medical Sciences, Sawangi, India
| | - Donald M Thea
- Department of Global Health, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
| | | | - Cissy B Kartasasmita
- Department of Child Health, Faculty of Medicine, Universitas Padjadjaran, Bandung, Indonesia
| | - Marilla Lucero
- Department of Pediatrics, Research Institute for Tropical Medicine, Muntinlupa City, Philippines
| | - Shally Awasthi
- Department of Pediatrics, King George's Medical University, Lucknow, Uttar Pradesh, India
| | | | - Monidarin Chou
- Rodolph Mérieux Laboratory, Faculty of Medicine, University of Health Sciences, Phnom Penh, Cambodia
| | - Pagbajabyn Nymadawa
- Department of Pediatrics, Mongolian Academy of Sciences, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia
| | | | | | | | | | | | - Graciela Russomando
- Departamento de Biología Molecular y Genética, Instituto de Investigaciones en Ciencias de la Salud, Asuncion, Paraguay
| | - Mariam Sylla
- Department of Pediatrics, Gabriel Touré University Hospital Center, Bamako, Mali
| | - Philippe Vanhems
- Unité d'Hygiène, Epidémiologie, Infectiovigilance et Prévention, Hospices Civils de Lyon, Lyon, France
| | - Jianwei Wang
- MOH Key Laboratory of Systems Biology of Pathogens and Dr Christophe Mérieux Laboratory, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union, Beijing, China
| | - Rai Asghar
- Department of Paediatrics, Rawalpindi Medical College, Rawalpindi, Pakistan
| | - Salem Banajeh
- Department of Pediatrics, Sana'a University, Sana'a, Yemen
| | - Imran Iqbal
- Department of Pediatrics, Nishtar Medical College, Multan, Pakistan
| | - Irene Maulen-Radovan
- Division de Investigacion Insurgentes, Instituto Nactional de Pediatria, Mexico City, Mexico
| | - Greta Mino-Leon
- Infectious Diseases, Children's Hospital Dr Francisco de Ycaza Bustamante, Guayaquil, Ecuador
| | - Samir K Saha
- Child Health Research Foundation, Dhaka Shishu Hosp, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Mathuram Santosham
- International Vaccine Access Center (IVAC), Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
| | - Sunit Singhi
- Department of Pediatrics, Medanta, The Medicity, Gurgaon, India
| | - Sudha Basnet
- Department of Pediatrics, Tribhuvan University Institute of Medicine, Kathmandu, Nepal
| | - Tor A Strand
- Department of Research, Innlandet Hospital Trust, Lillehammer, Norway
| | - Shinjini Bhatnagar
- Department of Maternal and Child Health, Translational Health Science and Technology Institute, Faridabad, India
| | - Nitya Wadhwa
- Department of Maternal and Child Health, Translational Health Science and Technology Institute, Faridabad, India
| | - Rakesh Lodha
- Department of Pediatrics, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, New Delhi, India
| | - Satinder Aneja
- Department of Pediatrics, Sharda University School of Medical Sciences and Research, Greater Noida, Uttar Pradesh, India
| | - Alexey W Clara
- Central American Region, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
| | - Harry Campbell
- Population Health Sciences and Informati, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Harish Nair
- Centre for Global Health, Usher Institute, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, Scotland
| | - Jennifer Falconer
- Centre for Global Health, Usher Institute, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, Scotland
| | - Shamim A Qazi
- Department of Maternal, Newborn, Child, and Adolescent Health (Retired), World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Yasir B Nisar
- Department of Maternal, Newborn, Child and Adolescent Health and Ageing, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Mark I Neuman
- Division of Emergency Medicine, Boston Children's Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
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Rees CA, Monuteaux MC, Bourgeois FT. National Institutes of Health Funding Priorities-Reply. JAMA Pediatr 2022; 176:325. [PMID: 34962553 DOI: 10.1001/jamapediatrics.2021.5368] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/14/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Chris A Rees
- Division of Pediatric Emergency Medicine, Emory University School of Medicine, Children's Healthcare of Atlanta, Atlanta, Georgia
| | - Michael C Monuteaux
- Division of Emergency Medicine, Boston Children's Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts
| | - Florence T Bourgeois
- Pediatric Therapeutics and Regulatory Science Initiative, Computational Health Informatics Program, Boston Children's Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts
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Identifying Infants and Young Children at Risk of Unplanned Hospital Admissions and Clinic Visits in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. Pediatr Infect Dis J 2020; 39:e428-e434. [PMID: 32842043 PMCID: PMC7680284 DOI: 10.1097/inf.0000000000002875] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/25/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Pediatric inpatient mortality rates are as high as 11% in parts of sub-Saharan Africa. Unscheduled clinic visits also burden children in sub-Saharan Africa. Our objective was to identify factors associated with hospital admissions and unscheduled clinic visits among Tanzanian children < 24 months of age. METHODS We conducted a secondary analysis of 2 trials conducted in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. We performed univariate and Poisson multivariable regression analyses to identify factors associated with hospital admissions and unscheduled clinic visits. RESULTS Of 4784 children < 24 months of age, 293 (6.1%) were hospitalized at least once and 1308 (27.3%) had ≥ 1 unscheduled clinic visit. Infants and children who were exposed to but HIV-negative had increased risk of hospital admission [adjusted risk ratios (aRR): 3.67; 95% CI: 2.45-5.50; P < 0.001] compared with HIV-unexposed children. Those who were HIV-positive had even higher risk of hospital admission compared with those not exposed to HIV (aRR: 10.87; 95% CI: 7.01-16.89; P < 0.001). Birth weight and breast-feeding status were not associated with increased risk of hospital admission. Children with Apgar scores < 7 (aRR: 1.32; 95% CI: 1.03-1.69; P = 0.001), not exclusively breast-fed up to 6 months of age (aRR: 1.34; 95% CI: 1.12-1.60; P = 0.001), and who were HIV-exposed and HIV-negative (aRR: 2.35; 95% CI: 2.08-2.66; P < 0.001) or HIV-positive (aRR: 3.02; 95% CI: 2.52-3.61; P < 0.001) had higher risk of unscheduled clinic visits. CONCLUSIONS Exposure to HIV and being HIV-positive were associated with the greatest risk for hospital admission and unplanned clinic visits among infants and children in Tanzania. Targeting these vulnerable populations in interventional studies may reduce morbidity.
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Vonasek BJ, Chiume M, Crouse HL, Mhango S, Kondwani A, Ciccone EJ, Kazembe PN, Gaven W, Fitzgerald E. Risk factors for mortality and management of children with complicated severe acute malnutrition at a tertiary referral hospital in Malawi. Paediatr Int Child Health 2020; 40:148-157. [PMID: 32242509 DOI: 10.1080/20469047.2020.1747003] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/24/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Severe acute malnutrition (SAM) is a major cause of childhood mortality in resource-limited settings. The relationship between clinical factors and adherence to the 'WHO 10 Steps' and mortality in children with SAM is not fully understood. METHODS Data from an ongoing prospective observational cohort study assessing admission characteristics, management patterns and clinical outcome in children aged 6-36 months admitted to a tertiary hospital in Malawi from September 2018 to September 2019 were analysed. Data clerks independently collected data from patients' charts. Demographics, clinical and nutritional status, identification of SAM and adherence to the 'WHO 10 Steps' were summarised. Their relationship to in-hospital mortality was assessed using multivariable logistic regression. RESULTS Of the 6752 patients admitted, 9.7% had SAM. Mortality was significantly higher in those with SAM (10.1% vs 3.8%, p < 0.001). Compared with independent assessment anthropometrics, clinicians appropriately documented SAM on admission in 39.5%. The following factors were independently associated with mortality: kwashiorkor [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 5.14, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.27-20.78], shock (aOR 18.54, 95% CI 3.87-88.90), HIV-positive (aOR 5.32, 95% CI 1.76-16.09), SAM documented on admission (aOR 2.41, 95% CI 1.11-5.22), documentation of blood glucose within 24 hrs (aOR 3.97, 95% CI 1.90-8.33) and IV fluids given without documented shock (aOR 3.13, 95% CI 1.16-8.44). CONCLUSION HIV infection remains an important predictor of mortality in children with SAM. IV fluids should be avoided in those without shock. Early identification of SAM by the clinical team represents a focus of future quality improvement interventions at this facility.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bryan J Vonasek
- Department of Pediatrics, Baylor College of Medicine , Houston, USA
| | - Msandeni Chiume
- Department of Paediatrics, Kamuzu Central Hospital , Lilongwe, Malawi.,College of Medicine, University of Malawi , Lilongwe, Malawi
| | - Heather L Crouse
- Department of Pediatrics, Baylor College of Medicine , Houston, USA
| | - Susan Mhango
- Baylor College of Medicine Children's Foundation Malawi , Lilongwe, Malawi
| | | | - Emily J Ciccone
- Department of Medicine, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill , Chapel Hill, USA
| | | | - Wilfred Gaven
- Malawi College of Health Sciences , Lilongwe, Malawi
| | - Elizabeth Fitzgerald
- Department of Pediatrics, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill , Chapel Hill, USA
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Kisenge RR, Rees CA, Lauer JM, Liu E, Fawzi WW, Manji KP, Duggan CP. Risk factors for mortality among Tanzanian infants and children. Trop Med Health 2020; 48:43. [PMID: 32518499 PMCID: PMC7271391 DOI: 10.1186/s41182-020-00233-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/28/2020] [Accepted: 05/26/2020] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND During the era of the Millennium Development Goals, under 5 mortality rates decreased significantly worldwide; however, reductions were not equally distributed. Children in sub-Saharan Africa still account for more than 50% of the world's annual childhood deaths among children under 5 years of age. Understanding upstream risk factors for mortality among children may reduce the large burden of childhood mortality in sub-Saharan Africa. Our objective was to identify risk factors for mortality among infants and children in Tanzania. METHODS We conducted a secondary analysis of data pooled from two randomized-controlled micronutrient supplementation trials. A total of 4787 infants were enrolled in the two trials (n = 2387 HIV-exposed and n = 2400 HIV-unexposed). Predictors of mortality were assessed using unadjusted and adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs). RESULTS There were 307 total deaths, 262 (11%) among children who were HIV-exposed and 45 (2%) among children who were HIV-unexposed (P < 0.001). The most common cause of death was respiratory diseases (n = 109, 35.5%). Causes of death did not significantly differ between HIV-exposed and HIV-unexposed children. In adjusted regression analyses, children with birth weight <2500 g (aHR 1.75, 95% CI 1.21-2.54), Apgar score of ≤7 at 5 min (aHR 2.16, 95% CI 1.29-3.62), or who were HIV-exposed but not infected (aHR 3.35, 95% CI 2.12-5.28) or HIV-infected (aHR 27.56, 95% CI 17.43-43.58) had greater risk of mortality. CONCLUSIONS Infection with HIV, low birthweight, or low Apgar scores were associated with higher mortality risk. Early identification and modification of determinants of mortality among infants and children may be the first step to reducing such deaths.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rodrick R. Kisenge
- Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, Muhimbili University of Health and Allied Sciences, P.O. Box 65001, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania
| | - Chris A. Rees
- Division of Emergency Medicine, Boston Children’s Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA USA
| | - Jacqueline M. Lauer
- Clinical Research Centre, Division of Gastroenterology, Hepatology and Nutrition, Boston Children’s Hospital, Boston, MA USA
| | - Enju Liu
- Institutional Centers for Clinical and Translational Research, Boston Children’s Hospital, Boston, MA USA
| | - Wafaie W. Fawzi
- Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, MA USA
| | - Karim P. Manji
- Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, Muhimbili University of Health and Allied Sciences, P.O. Box 65001, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania
| | - Christopher P. Duggan
- Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, Muhimbili University of Health and Allied Sciences, P.O. Box 65001, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania
- Division of Gastroenterology, Hepatology and Nutrition, Boston Children’s Hospital, Boston, MA USA
- Center for Nutrition, Division of Gastroenterology, Hepatology, and Nutrition, Boston Children’s Hospital, Boston, MA USA
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Vonasek BJ, Itaye T, Mhango J, Dean AL, Kazembe PN. Socioeconomic factors associated with virologic suppression in children and adolescents living with HIV in Lilongwe, Malawi. J Public Health (Oxf) 2020. [DOI: 10.1007/s10389-019-01184-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/24/2022] Open
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