Sudden cardiac death and pump failure death prediction in chronic heart failure by combining ECG and clinical markers in an integrated risk model

Artificial Intelligence-Based Methods for Precision Cardiovascular Medicine

Precision medicine has the potential to revolutionize the way cardiovascular diseases are diagnosed, predicted, and treated by tailoring treatment strategies to the individual characteristics of each patient. Artificial intelligence (AI) has recently emerged as a promising tool for improving the accuracy and efficiency of precision cardiovascular medicine. In this scoping review, we aimed to identify and summarize the current state of the literature on the use of AI in precision cardiovascular medicine. A comprehensive search of electronic databases, including Scopes, Google Scholar, and PubMed, was conducted to identify relevant studies. After applying inclusion and exclusion criteria, a total of 28 studies were included in the review. We found that AI is being increasingly applied in various areas of cardiovascular medicine, including the diagnosis, prognosis of cardiovascular diseases, risk prediction and stratification, and treatment planning. As a result, most of these studies focused on prediction (50%), followed by diagnosis (21%), phenotyping (14%), and risk stratification (14%). A variety of machine learning models were utilized in these studies, with logistic regression being the most used (36%), followed by random forest (32%), support vector machine (25%), and deep learning models such as neural networks (18%). Other models, such as hierarchical clustering (11%), Cox regression (11%), and natural language processing (4%), were also utilized. The data sources used in these studies included electronic health records (79%), imaging data (43%), and omics data (4%). We found that AI is being increasingly applied in various areas of cardiovascular medicine, including the diagnosis, prognosis of cardiovascular diseases, risk prediction and stratification, and treatment planning. The results of the review showed that AI has the potential to improve the performance of cardiovascular disease diagnosis and prognosis, as well as to identify individuals at high risk of developing cardiovascular diseases. However, further research is needed to fully evaluate the clinical utility and effectiveness of AI-based approaches in precision cardiovascular medicine. Overall, our review provided a comprehensive overview of the current state of knowledge in the field of AI-based methods for precision cardiovascular medicine and offered new insights for researchers interested in this research area.

Prevention of Sudden Death in Sports: A Global and Multidisciplinary Observatory for Scientific Research and Knowledge Transfer (PREMUBID)

Background

The health benefits of sports and exercise training are well known. However, an acute bout of exercise transiently increases the risk of sudden cardiac death (SCD). To minimize the cardiovascular risks of exercise, more insight into the prevention and causes of SCD is needed.

Methods

The observatory for the prevention of sudden death in sports, PREMUBID, was created with the aim of fostering research to assess the benefits and risks of exercise at different volumes and intensities and to get insight into the underlying mechanisms of potentially cardiac (mal) adaptations.

Results

The observatory gathers researchers from a wide range of disciplines working at institutions in Europe and North America. The guiding principles of PREMUBID are to broaden the understanding of SCD in sports, strengthening collaborative research across the globe, and to develop, implement and evaluate robust pre-participation screening and emergency care strategies to further reduce the number of fatal cardiac events in sport events. During the inaugural meeting of the observatory, members and affiliated researchers discussed possibilities to initiate collaborative research projects and to exchange staff and students to share information and practices to prevent SCD. The final goal is to translate the obtained knowledge to understandable messages for the general population and healthcare workers to ensure that the population at large benefits from it.

Conclusions

The PREMUBID consortium aims to produce novel knowledge and insights in SCD prevention, in order to maximize the health benefits associated with acute and long-term exercise training.

The role of β-adrenergic stimulation in QT interval adaptation to heart rate during stress test

The adaptation lag of the QT interval after heart rate (HR) has been proposed as an arrhythmic risk marker. Most studies have quantified the QT adaptation lag in response to abrupt, step-like changes in HR induced by atrial pacing, in response to tilt test or during ambulatory recordings. Recent studies have introduced novel methods to quantify the QT adaptation lag to gradual, ramp-like HR changes in stress tests by evaluating the differences between the measured QT series and an estimated, memoryless QT series obtained from the instantaneous HR. These studies have observed the QT adaptation lag to progressively reduce when approaching the stress peak, with the underlying mechanisms being still unclear. This study analyzes the contribution of β-adrenergic stimulation to QT interval rate adaptation in response to gradual, ramp-like HR changes. We first quantify the QT adaptation lag in Coronary Artery Disease (CAD) patients undergoing stress test. To uncover the involved mechanisms, we use biophysically detailed computational models coupling descriptions of human ventricular electrophysiology and β-adrenergic signaling, from which we simulate ventricular action potentials and ECG signals. We characterize the adaptation of the simulated QT interval in response to the HR time series measured from each of the analyzed CAD patients. We show that, when the simulated ventricular tissue is subjected to a time-varying β-adrenergic stimulation pattern, with higher stimulation levels close to the stress peak, the simulated QT interval presents adaptation lags during exercise that are more similar to those measured from the patients than when subjected to constant β-adrenergic stimulation. During stress test recovery, constant and time-varying β-adrenergic stimulation patterns render similar adaptation lags, which are generally shorter than during exercise, in agreement with results from the patients. In conclusion, our findings support the role of time-varying β-adrenergic stimulation in contributing to QT interval adaptation to gradually increasing HR changes as those seen during the exercise phase of a stress test.

Prediction of Coronary Artery Disease and Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events Using Clinical and Genetic Risk Scores for Cardiovascular Risk Factors

BACKGROUND

Coronary artery disease (CAD) and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) are the leading causes of death in the general population, but risk stratification remains suboptimal. CAD genetic risk scores (GRSs) predict risk independently from clinical tools, like QRISK3. We assessed the added value of GRSs for a variety of cardiovascular traits (CV GRSs) for predicting CAD and MACE and tested their early-life screening potential by comparing against the CAD GRS only.

METHODS

We used data from 379 581 participants in the UK Biobank without known cardiovascular conditions (follow-up, 11.3 years; 3.3% CAD cases and 5.2% MACE cases). In a training subset (50%) we built 3 scores: QRISK3; QRISK3 and an established CAD GRS; and QRISK3, the CAD GRS and the CV GRSs. In an independent subset (50%), we evaluated each score's performance using the concordance index, odds ratio and net reclassification index. We then repeated the analyses without considering QRISK3.

RESULTS

For CAD, the combination of QRISK3 and the CAD GRS had a better performance than QRISK3 alone (concordance index, 0.766 versus 0.753; odds ratio, 5.47 versus 4.82; net reclassification index, 7.7%). Adding the CV GRSs did not significantly improve risk stratification. When only looking at genetic information, the combination of CV GRSs and the CAD GRS had a better performance than the CAD GRS alone (concordance index, 0.637 versus 0.625; odds ratio, 2.17 versus 2.07; net reclassification index, 3.3%). Similar results were obtained for MACE.

CONCLUSIONS

In individuals without known cardiovascular disease, the inclusion of CV GRSs to a clinical tool and an established CAD GRS does not improve CAD or MACE risk stratification. However, their combination only with the CAD GRS increases prediction performance indicating potential use in early-life screening before the advanced development of conventional cardiovascular risk factors.

ECG T-Wave Morphologic Variations Predict Ventricular Arrhythmic Risk in Low- and Moderate-Risk Populations

Background Early identification of individuals at risk of sudden cardiac death (SCD) remains a major challenge. The ECG is a simple, common test, with potential for large-scale application. We developed and tested the predictive value of a novel index quantifying T-wave morphologic variations with respect to a normal reference (TMV), which only requires one beat and a single-lead ECG. Methods and Results We obtained reference T-wave morphologies from 23 962 participants in the UK Biobank study. With Cox models, we determined the association between TMV and life-threatening ventricular arrhythmia in an independent data set from UK Biobank study without a history of cardiovascular events (N=51 794; median follow-up of 122 months) and SCD in patients with coronary artery disease from ARTEMIS (N=1872; median follow-up of 60 months). In UK Biobank study, 220 (0.4%) individuals developed life-threatening ventricular arrhythmias. TMV was significantly associated with life-threatening ventricular arrhythmias (hazard ratio [HR] of 1.13 per SD increase [95% CI, 1.03-1.24]; P=0.009). In ARTEMIS, 34 (1.8%) individuals reached the primary end point. Patients with TMV ≥5 had an HR for SCD of 2.86 (95% CI, 1.40-5.84; P=0.004) with respect to those with TMV <5, independently from QRS duration, corrected QT interval, and left ventricular ejection fraction. TMV was not significantly associated with death from a cause other than SCD. Conclusions TMV identifies individuals at life-threatening ventricular arrhythmia and SCD risk using a single-beat single-lead ECG, enabling inexpensive, quick, and safe risk assessment in large populations.

Electrocardiographic Patterns of Depolarization Abnormalities Help to Identify Reduced Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction

The aim of the study was to investigate the relationship between a decrease in the left ventricular ejection fraction (EF) and traditional ECG signs associated with structural changes of the myocardium (pathological Q wave, ventricular arrhythmias) and relatively new and poorly understood (fragmented QRS complex (fQRS), early repolarization pattern (ERP)) and evaluate their significance for identifying patients with mildly reduced EF (mrEF). The study included 148 patients who were treated and examined at the Almazov Medical Research Center. FQRS, ERP, pathological Q wave, and premature ventricular contractions (PVC) were described in the analysis of the ECG, and the results of echocardiography and statistical data were analyzed: Fisher’s test and chi-square, correlation analysis, and ROC analysis. According to the level of EF, patients were divided into three groups: group 1—patients with low EF (lEF) (less than 40%), group 2—patients with mildly reduced EF (mrEF) (40–49%); group 3—patients with preserved EF (pEF) (more than 50%). In the first group (EF), fQRS was registered in 16 (51.6%) patients, in the mrEF in 16 (18.2%). Pathological Q wave was detected in lEF in 20 (65%), in mrEF in 10 (35%), 15 (18%), in pEF in 15 (18%). The fQRS has been found to be more important in identifying patients with mrEF. In lEF in 2 (6.5%) patients, in mrEF in 2 (6.9%), in pEF in 11 (12.5%). There was no relationship between ERP, the amount of PVC, and the presence of ventricular tachycardia with EF. FQRS is significantly more common occurred with a decrease in EF and may be a marker of a mrEF. Thus, fQRS is associated with mrEF and pay close attention in routine clinical practice to identify patients at high risk of developing systolic dysfunction.

Periodic repolarization dynamics as predictor of risk for sudden cardiac death in chronic heart failure patients

The two most common modes of death among chronic heart failure (CHF) patients are sudden cardiac death (SCD) and pump failure death (PFD). Periodic repolarization dynamics (PRD) quantifies low-frequency oscillations in the T wave vector of the electrocardiogram (ECG) and has been postulated to reflect sympathetic modulation of ventricular repolarization. This study aims to evaluate the prognostic value of PRD to predict SCD and PFD in a population of CHF patients. 20-min high-resolution (1000 Hz) ECG recordings from 569 CHF patients were analyzed. Patients were divided into two groups, \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$\hbox {PRD}^+$$\end{document}PRD+ and \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$\hbox {PRD}^-$$\end{document}PRD-, corresponding to PRD values above and below the optimum cutoff point of PRD in the study population. Univariate Cox regression analysis showed that SCD risk in the \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$\hbox {PRD}^+$$\end{document}PRD+ group was double the risk in the \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$\hbox {PRD}^-$$\end{document}PRD- group [hazard ratio (95% CI) 2.001 (1.127–3.554), \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$\hbox {p}<0.05$$\end{document}p<0.05]. The combination of PRD with other Holter-based ECG indices, such as turbulence slope (TS) and index of average alternans (IAA), improved SCD prediction by identifying groups of patients at high SCD risk. PFD could be predicted by PRD only when combined with TS [hazard ratio 2.758 (1.572–4.838), \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$\hbox {p}<0.001$$\end{document}p<0.001]. In conclusion, the combination of PRD with IAA and TS can be used to stratify the risk for SCD and PFD, respectively, in CHF patients.

ECG Ventricular Repolarization Dynamics during Exercise: Temporal Profile, Relation to Heart Rate Variability and Effects of Age and Physical Health

Periodic repolarization dynamics (PRD) is a novel electrocardiographic marker of cardiac repolarization instability with powerful risk stratification capacity for total mortality and sudden cardiac death. Here, we use a time-frequency analysis approach to continuously quantify PRD at rest and during exercise, assess its dependence on heart rate variability (HRV) and characterize the effects of age (young adults/middle-aged adults/older adults), body mass index (non-overweight/overweight) and cardiorespiratory fitness level (fit/unfit). Sixty-six male volunteers performed an exercise test. RR and dT variabilities (RRV, dTV), as well as the fraction of dT variability unrelated to RR variability, were computed based on time-frequency representations. The instantaneous LF power of dT (PdTV), representing the same concept as PRD, and of its RRV-unrelated component (PdTVuRRV) were quantified. dT angle was found to mostly oscillate in the LF band. Overall, 50-70% of PdTV was linearly unrelated to RRV. The onset of exercise caused a sudden increase in PdTV and PdTVuRRV, which returned to pre-exercise levels during recovery. Clustering analysis identified a group of overweight and unfit individuals with significantly higher PdTV and PdTVuRRV values at rest than the rest of the population. Our findings shed new light on the temporal profile of PRD during exercise, its relationship to HRV and the differences in PRD between subjects according to phenotypic characteristics.

Development and Validation of a Risk Prediction Model for Ventricular Arrhythmia in Elderly Patients with Coronary Heart Disease

BACKGROUND

Sudden cardiac death is a leading cause of death from coronary heart disease (CHD). The risk of sudden cardiac death (SCD) increases with age, and sudden arrhythmic death remains a major cause of mortality in elderly individuals, especially ventricular arrhythmias (VA). We developed a risk prediction model by combining ECG and other clinical noninvasive indexes including biomarkers and echocardiology for VA in elderly patients with CHD.

METHOD

In the retrospective study, a total of 2231 consecutive elderly patients (≥60 years old) with CHD hospitalized were investigated, and finally 1983 patients were enrolled as the model group. The occurrence of VA within 12 months was mainly collected. Study parameters included clinical characteristics (age, gender, height, weight, BMI, and past medical history), ECG indexes (QTcd, Tp-e/QT, and HRV indexes), biomarker indexes (NT-proBNP, Myo, cTnT, CK-MB, CRP, K+, and Ca2+), and echocardiology indexes. In the respective study, 406 elderly patients (≥60 years old) with CHD were included as the verification group to verify the model in terms of differentiation and calibration.

RESULTS

In the multiparameter model, seven independent predictors were selected: LVEF, LAV, HLP, QTcd, sex, Tp-e/QT, and age. Increased HLP, Tp-e/QT, QTcd, age, and LAV were risk factors (RR > 1), while female and increased LVEF were protective factors (RR < 1). This model can well predict the occurrence of VA in elderly patients with CHD (for model group, AUC: 0.721, 95% CI: 0.669∼0.772; for verification group, AUC: 0.73, 95% CI: 0.648∼0.818; Hosmer-Lemeshow χ 2 = 13.541, P=0.095). After adjusting the predictors, it was found that the combination of clinical indexes and ECG indexes could predict VA more efficiently than using clinical indexes alone.

CONCLUSIONS

LVEF, LAV, QTcd, Tp-e/QT, gender, age, and HLP were independent predictors of VA risk in elderly patients with CHD. Among these factors, the echocardiology indexes LVEF and LAV had the greatest influence on the predictive efficiency of the model, followed by ECG indexes, QTcd and Tp-e/QT. After verification, the model had a good degree of differentiation and calibration, which can provide a certain reference for clinical prediction of the VA occurrence in elderly patients with CHD.

Analysing electrocardiographic traits and predicting cardiac risk in UK biobank

The electrocardiogram (ECG) is a commonly used clinical tool that reflects cardiac excitability and disease. Many parameters are can be measured and with the improvement of methodology can now be quantified in an automated fashion, with accuracy and at scale. Furthermore, these measurements can be heritable and thus genome wide association studies inform the underpinning biological mechanisms. In this review we describe how we have used the resources in UK Biobank to undertake such work. In particular, we focus on a substudy uniquely describing the response to exercise performed at scale with accompanying genetic information.

HRT assessment reviewed: a systematic review of heart rate turbulence methodology

Heart rate turbulence (HRT) is a biphasic reaction to a ventricular premature contraction (VPC) mainly mediated by the baroreflex. It can be used for risk stratification in different disease patterns. Despite existing standards there is a lot of variation in terms of measuring and calculating HRT, which complicates research and application.

OBJECTIVE

This systematic review outlines and evaluates the methodological spectrum of HRT research, especially filtering criteria, parameter calculation and thresholds.

APPROACH

The analysis includes all research papers written in English that have been published before 12.10.2018, are listed on PubMed and involve calculation of HRT parameter values.

MAIN RESULTS

HRT assessment is still being performed in various ways and important specifications of the methodology are not given in many articles. Nevertheless, some suggestions regarding HRT methodology can be made: a normalised turbulence slope should be used to uncouple the parameter from heart rate and frequency of extrasystoles. Filtering criteria as formerly reviewed in the guidelines should be met and mentioned. The minimal number of VPC snippets (VPCSs) as well as new cut-off values for different risks need to be further evaluated. Most importantly, the exact and complete methodology must be described to ensure reproducibility and comparability.

SIGNIFICANCE

Methodical variation hinders comparability of research and medical application. Our continuing questions help to further standardise the measurement and calculation of HRT and increase its value for medical risk stratification.

Short-Period Temporal Dispersion Repolarization Markers Predict 30-Days Mortality in Decompensated Heart Failure

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Electrocardiographic (ECG) markers of the temporal dispersion of the myocardial repolarization phase have been shown able to identify chronic heart failure (CHF) patients at high mortality risk. The present prospective single-center study sought to investigate in a well-characterized cohort of decompensated heart failure (HF) patients the ability of short-term myocardial temporal dispersion ECG variables in predicting the 30-day mortality, as well as their relationship with N-terminal Pro Brain Natriuretic Peptide (NT-proBNP) plasmatic values.

METHOD

One hundred and thirteen subjects (male: 59, 67.8%) with decompensated CHF underwent 5 min of ECG recording, via a mobile phone. We obtained QT end (QTe), QT peak (QTp) and T peak to T end (Te) and calculated the mean, standard deviation (SD), and normalized index (VN).

RESULTS

Death occurred for 27 subjects (24%) within 30 days after admission. Most of the repolarization indexes (QTe mean (p < 0.05), QTeSD (p < 0.01), QTpSD (p < 0.05), mean Te (p < 0.05), TeSD (p < 0.001) QTeVN (p < 0.05) and TeVN (p < 0.01)) were significantly higher in those CHF patients with the highest NT-proBNP (>75th percentile). In all the ECG data, only TeSD was significantly and positively related to the NT-proBNP levels (r: 0.471; p < 0.001). In the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, the highest accuracy for 30-day mortality was found for QTeSD (area under curve, AUC: 0.705, p < 0.01) and mean Te (AUC: 0.680, p < 0.01), whereas for the NT-proBNP values higher than the 75th percentile, the highest accuracy was found for TeSD (AUC: 0.736, p < 0.001) and QTeSD (AUC: 0.696, p < 0.01).

CONCLUSION

Both mean Te and TeSD could be considered as reliable markers of worsening HF and of 30-day mortality. Although larger and possibly interventional studies are needed to confirm our preliminary finding, these non-invasive and transmissible ECG parameters could be helpful in the remote monitoring of advanced HF patients and, possibly, in their clinical management. (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04127162).

ArrhythmoGenoPharmacoTherapy

This review is focusing on the understanding of various factors and components governing and controlling the occurrence of ventricular arrhythmias including (i) the role of various ion channel-related changes in the action potential (AP), (ii) electrocardiograms (ECGs), (iii) some important arrhythmogenic mediators of reperfusion, and pharmacological approaches to their attenuation. The transmembrane potential in myocardial cells is depending on the cellular concentrations of several ions including sodium, calcium, and potassium on both sides of the cell membrane and active or inactive stages of ion channels. The movements of Na+, K+, and Ca2+ via cell membranes produce various currents that provoke AP, determining the cardiac cycle and heart function. A specific channel has its own type of gate, and it is opening and closing under specific transmembrane voltage, ionic, or metabolic conditions. APs of sinoatrial (SA) node, atrioventricular (AV) node, and Purkinje cells determine the pacemaker activity (depolarization phase 4) of the heart, leading to the surface manifestation, registration, and evaluation of ECG waves in both animal models and humans. AP and ECG changes are key factors in arrhythmogenesis, and the analysis of these changes serve for the clarification of the mechanisms of antiarrhythmic drugs. The classification of antiarrhythmic drugs may be based on their electrophysiological properties emphasizing the connection between basic electrophysiological activities and antiarrhythmic properties. The review also summarizes some important mechanisms of ventricular arrhythmias in the ischemic/reperfused myocardium and permits an assessment of antiarrhythmic potential of drugs used for pharmacotherapy under experimental and clinical conditions.

Evaluating risk prediction models for adults with heart failure: A systematic literature review

Background

The ability to predict risk allows healthcare providers to propose which patients might benefit most from certain therapies, and is relevant to payers’ demands to justify clinical and economic value. To understand the robustness of risk prediction models for heart failure (HF), we conducted a systematic literature review to (1) identify HF risk-prediction models, (2) assess statistical approach and extent of validation, (3) identify common variables, and (4) assess risk of bias (ROB).

Methods

Literature databases were searched from March 2013 to May 2018 to identify risk prediction models conducted in an out-of-hospital setting in adults with HF. Distinct risk prediction variables were ranked according to outcomes assessed and incorporation into the studies. ROB was assessed using Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool (PROBAST).

Results

Of 4720 non-duplicated citations, 40 risk-prediction publications were deemed relevant. Within the 40 publications, 58 models assessed 55 (co)primary outcomes, including all-cause mortality (n = 17), cardiovascular death (n = 9), HF hospitalizations (n = 15), and composite endpoints (n = 14). Few publications reported detail on handling missing data (n = 11; 28%). The discriminatory ability for predicting all-cause mortality, cardiovascular death, and composite endpoints was generally better than for HF hospitalization. 105 distinct predictor variables were identified. Predictors included in >5 publications were: N-terminal prohormone brain-natriuretic peptide, creatinine, blood urea nitrogen, systolic blood pressure, sodium, NYHA class, left ventricular ejection fraction, heart rate, and characteristics including male sex, diabetes, age, and BMI. Only 11/58 (19%) models had overall low ROB, based on our application of PROBAST. In total, 26/58 (45%) models discussed internal validation, and 14/58 (24%) external validation.

Conclusions

The majority of the 58 identified risk-prediction models for HF present particular concerns according to ROB assessment, mainly due to lack of validation and calibration. The potential utility of novel approaches such as machine learning tools is yet to be determined.

Registration number

The SLR was registered in Prospero (ID: CRD42018100709).

The risk and prevention of sudden death in patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Patients with heart failure are at increased risk of sudden cardiac death. The methods to predict patients at high risk of sudden cardiac death in heart failure are neither sensitive nor specific; both overestimating risk in those with ejection fractions less than 35% and not identifying those at risk with ejection fractions greater than 35%.

RECENT FINDINGS

The absolute risk of sudden cardiac death in patients with heart failure have decreased over the past 20 years. New novel tools are being developed and tested to identify those at higher risk of sudden cardiac death. Reduction in the risk of sudden cardiac death has been achieved with the use of beta-blockers, spironolactone, sacubitril-valsartan, cardiac resynchronization and implantable cardioverter defibrillators.

SUMMARY

The use of contemporary treatments for patients with heart failure can reduce the risk of sudden cardiac death, but research is required to identify those at highest risk.

Long-Term Microgravity Exposure Increases ECG Repolarization Instability Manifested by Low-Frequency Oscillations of T-Wave Vector

Ventricular arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death during long-term space missions are a major concern for space agencies. Long-duration spaceflight and its ground-based analog head-down bed rest (HDBR) have been reported to markedly alter autonomic and cardiac functioning, particularly affecting ventricular repolarization of the electrocardiogram (ECG). In this study, novel methods are developed, departing from previously published methodologies, to quantify the index of Periodic Repolarization Dynamics (PRD), an arrhythmic risk marker that characterizes sympathetically-mediated low-frequency oscillations in the T-wave vector. PRD is evaluated in ECGs from 42 volunteers at rest and during an orthostatic tilt table test recorded before and after 60-day –6° HDBR. Our results indicate that tilt test, on top of enhancing sympathetic regulation of heart rate, notably increases PRD, both before and after HDBR, thus supporting previous evidence on PRD being an indicator of sympathetic modulation of ventricular repolarization. Importantly, long-term microgravity exposure is shown to lead to significant increases in PRD, both when evaluated at rest and, even more notably, in response to tilt test. The extent of microgravity-induced changes in PRD has been associated with arrhythmic risk in prior studies. An exercise-based, but not a nutrition-based, countermeasure is able to partially reverse microgravity-induced effects on PRD. In conclusion, long-term exposure to microgravity conditions leads to elevated low-frequency oscillations of ventricular repolarization, which are potentiated following sympathetic stimulation and are related to increased risk for repolarization instabilities and arrhythmias. Tested countermeasures are only partially effective in counteracting microgravity effects.

Normalization of heart rate variability with taurine and meldonium complex in post-infarction patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus

The purpose of this study is to scrutiny the Dynamics of heart rate variability (HRV) in patients with PICS with 2nd type DM against the background of Taurine (TN) and meldonium (ME). The results of the investigations prove the decrease of the oxidative stress, which is basis of DACN, under the influence of sulfur-containing amino acid taurine (TN), and meldonium (ME) — a competitive inhibitor of gamma-butyrobetaine hydroxylase. Biochemical mechanisms of synergistic action of ME and TN are also described. The results of the studies of 98 patients with PICS and concomitant 2nd type diabetes mellitus were analyzed. They were distributed by simple randomization method into two groups, comparable according to age and sex: the main group (MG) (n = 68): and group of comparison (GoC) (n = 30). HRV was evaluated twice daily at the Cardiosense HMEGG system: at baseline and after 12 weeks of treatment. For the assessment of HRV the frequency and spectral parameters were used. While evaluating the different methods of treatment, their influence on the range of spectral and time indices of HRV was determined (p = 0.001 by the criterion of Kruskall-Wallis). It was learned that the combined application of ME and TN gives a statistically significant (p <0.01) increase of SDNN, HF at night, pNN — on 50% by day (p <0.01, p <0.001 and p <0.01 respectively), and statistically significant decrease in LF at night, compared to GHG.

Cardiovascular Predictive Value and Genetic Basis of Ventricular Repolarization Dynamics

BACKGROUND

Early prediction of cardiovascular risk in the general population remains an important issue. The T-wave morphology restitution (TMR), an ECG marker quantifying ventricular repolarization dynamics, is strongly associated with cardiovascular mortality in patients with heart failure. Our aim was to evaluate the cardiovascular prognostic value of TMR in a UK middle-aged population and identify any genetic contribution.

METHODS

We analyzed ECG recordings from 55 222 individuals from a UK middle-aged population undergoing an exercise stress test in UK Biobank (UKB). TMR was used to measure ventricular repolarization dynamics, exposed in this cohort by exercise (TMR during exercise, TMR^ex) and recovery from exercise (TMR during recovery, TMR^rec). The primary end point was cardiovascular events; secondary end points were all-cause mortality, ventricular arrhythmias, and atrial fibrillation with median follow-up of 7 years. Genome-wide association studies for TMR^ex and TMR^rec were performed, and genetic risk scores were derived and tested for association in independent samples from the full UKB cohort (N=360 631).

RESULTS

A total of 1743 (3.2%) individuals in UKB who underwent the exercise stress test had a cardiovascular event, and TMR^rec was significantly associated with cardiovascular events (hazard ratio, 1.11; P=5×10^-7), independent of clinical variables and other ECG markers. TMR^rec was also associated with all-cause mortality (hazard ratio, 1.10) and ventricular arrhythmias (hazard ratio, 1.16). We identified 12 genetic loci in total for TMR^ex and TMR^rec, of which 9 are associated with another ECG marker. Individuals in the top 20% of the TMR^rec genetic risk score were significantly more likely to have a cardiovascular event in the full UKB cohort (18 997, 5.3%) than individuals in the bottom 20% (hazard ratio, 1.07; P=6×10^-3).

CONCLUSIONS

TMR and TMR genetic risk scores are significantly associated with cardiovascular risk in a UK middle-aged population, supporting the hypothesis that increased spatio-temporal heterogeneity of ventricular repolarization is a substrate for cardiovascular risk and the validity of TMR as a cardiovascular risk predictor.

Noninvasive Mapping of the Electrophysiological Substrate in Cardiac Amyloidosis and Its Relationship to Structural Abnormalities

Background

The relationship between structural pathology and electrophysiological substrate in cardiac amyloidosis is unclear. Differences between light‐chain (AL) and transthyretin (ATTR) cardiac amyloidosis may have prognostic implications.

Methods and Results

ECG imaging and cardiac magnetic resonance studies were conducted in 21 cardiac amyloidosis patients (11 AL and 10 ATTR). Healthy volunteers were included as controls. With respect to ATTR, AL patients had lower amyloid volume (51.0/37.7 versus 73.7/16.4 mL, P=0.04), lower myocardial cell volume (42.6/19.1 versus 58.5/17.2 mL, P=0.021), and higher T1 (1172/64 versus 1109/80 ms, P=0.022) and T2 (53.4/2.9 versus 50.0/3.1 ms, P=0.003). ECG imaging revealed differences between cardiac amyloidosis and control patients in virtually all conduction‐repolarization parameters. With respect to ATTR, AL patients had lower epicardial signal amplitude (1.07/0.46 versus 1.83/1.26 mV, P=0.026), greater epicardial signal fractionation (P=0.019), and slightly higher dispersion of repolarization (187.6/65 versus 158.3/40 ms, P=0.062). No significant difference between AL and ATTR patients was found using the standard 12‐lead ECG. T1 correlated with epicardial signal amplitude (cc=−0.78), and extracellular volume with epicardial signal fractionation (cc=0.48) and repolarization time (cc=0.43). Univariate models based on single features from both cardiac magnetic resonance and ECG imaging classified AL and ATTR patients with an accuracy of 70% to 80%.

Conclusions

In this exploratory study cardiac amyloidosis was associated with ventricular conduction and repolarization abnormalities, which were more pronounced in AL than in ATTR. Combined ECG imaging–cardiac magnetic resonance analysis supports the hypothesis that additional mechanisms beyond infiltration may contribute to myocardial damage in AL amyloidosis. Further studies are needed to assess the clinical impact of this approach.

Effect of Palliative Care on Quality of Life and Survival after Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation: A Systematic Review

Background:

Cardiac and respiratory arrest is reversible through immediate cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR). However, survival after CPR is very low for various reasons. This systematic review study was conducted to assess the effect of palliative care on quality of life and survival after CPR.

Methods:

In the present meta-analysis and systematic review study, two researchers independently searched Google Scholar and MagIran, MedLib, IranMedex, SID, and PubMed for articles published during 1994–2016 and containing a number of relevant keywords and their Medical Subject Headings (MeSH) combinations. A total of 156 articles were initially extracted.

Results:

The success of initial resuscitation was reported to be much higher than the success of secondary resuscitation (survival until discharge). Moreover, the early detection of cardiac arrest, a high-quality CPR, immediate defibrillation, and effective postresuscitation care improved short- and long-term outcomes in these patients and significantly affected their quality of life after CPR. Most survivors of CPR can have a reasonable quality of life if they are given proper follow-up and persistent treatment.

Conclusions:

Concerns about the low quality of life after CPR are therefore not a worthy reason to end the efforts taken for the victims of cardiac arrest. More comprehensive education programs and facilities are required for the resuscitation of patients and the provision of post-CPR intensive care.

A bio-clinical approach for prediction of sudden cardiac death in outpatients with heart failure: The ST2-SCD score

BACKGROUND

Sudden cardiac death (SCD) is one of the main modes of death in heart failure (HF) patients and its prediction remains a real challenge. Our aim was to assess the incidence of SCD at 5 years HF contemporary managed outpatients, and to find a simple prediction model for SCD.

METHODS

SCD was considered any unexpected death, witnessed or not, occurring in a previously stable patient with no evidence of worsening HF or any other cause of death. A competing risk strategy was adopted using the Fine-Gray method of Cox regressions analyses that considered other causes of death as the competing event.

RESULTS

The derivation cohort included 744 consecutive outpatients (72% men, age 67.9 ± 12.2 years, left ventricular ejection fraction [LVEF] 36% ± 14). During follow-up, 312 deaths occurred, 40 SCDs (5.4%). Age, haemoglobin, eGFR, HF duration, high-sensitivity troponin T, NTproBNP, and ST2 were associated with SCD in univariate analyses; HF duration (p = 0.006), eGFR (p < 0.001), LVEF <45% (p = 0.03), and ST2 (p = 0.006) remained in multivariable analysis. A predictive score (ST2-SCD) including dichotomous variables (ST2 > 45, LVEF <45%, HF duration >3 years, eGFR < 55, age ≥ 60 years and male sex) provided a Harrell's C-statistic of 0.82 (0.76-0.89)), reaching 0.87 (0.80-0.95) in the validation cohort (n = 149).

CONCLUSIONS

In contemporary managed HF, SCD occurred in 5.4% of outpatients, accounting for 12.8% of all deaths at 5 years. Of the 3 studied biomarkers, only ST2 remained independently associated with SCD. A model containing age, sex, ST2, eGFR, LVEF, and HF duration reasonably predicted 5-years risk of SCD.

Pulse Arrival Time and Pulse Interval as Accurate Markers to Detect Mechanical Alternans

Mechanical alternans (MA) is a powerful predictor of adverse prognosis in patients with heart failure and cardiomyopathy, but its use remains limited due to the need of invasive continuous arterial pressure recordings. This study aims to assess novel cardiovascular correlates of MA in the intact human heart to facilitate affordable and non-invasive detection of MA and advance our understanding of the underlying pathophysiology. Arterial pressure, respiration, and ECG were recorded in 12 subjects with healthy ventricles during voluntarily controlled breathing at different respiratory rate, before and after administration of beta-blockers. MA was induced by ventricular pacing. A total of 67 recordings lasting approximately 90 s each were analyzed. Mechanical alternans (MA) was measured in the systolic blood pressure. We studied cardiovascular correlates of MA, including maximum pressure rise during systole (dPdtmax), pulse arrival time (PAT), pulse wave interval (PI), RR interval (RRI), ECG QRS complexes and T-waves. MA was detected in 30% of the analyzed recordings. Beta-blockade significantly reduced MA prevalence (from 50 to 11%, p < 0.05). Binary classification showed that MA was detected by alternans in dPdtmax (100% sens, 96% spec), PAT (100% sens, 81% spec) and PI (80% sens, 81% spec). Alternans in PAT and in PI also showed high degree of temporal synchronization with MA (80 ± 33 and 73 ± 40%, respectively). These data suggest that cardiac contractility is a primary factor in the establishment of MA. Our findings show that MA was highly correlated with invasive measurements of PAT and PI. Since PAT and PI can be estimated using non-invasive technologies, these markers could potentially enable affordable MA detection for risk-prediction.

New Concepts in Sudden Cardiac Arrest to Address an Intractable Epidemic: JACC State-of-the-Art Review

Sudden cardiac arrest (SCA) is one of the largest causes of mortality globally, with an out-of-hospital survival below 10% despite intense research. This document outlines challenges in addressing the epidemic of SCA, along the framework of respond, understand and predict, and prevent. Response could be improved by technology-assisted orchestration of community responder systems, access to automated external defibrillators, and innovations to match resuscitation resources to victims in place and time. Efforts to understand and predict SCA may be enhanced by refining taxonomy along phenotypical and pathophysiological "axes of risk," extending beyond cardiovascular pathology to identify less heterogeneous cohorts, facilitated by open-data platforms and analytics including machine learning to integrate discoveries across disciplines. Prevention of SCA must integrate these concepts, recognizing that all members of society are stakeholders. Ultimately, solutions to the public health challenge of SCA will require greater awareness, societal debate and focused public policy.

Non-Invasive Detection of Mechanical Alternans Utilizing Photoplethysmography

BACKGROUND AND SIGNIFICANCE

Mechanical alternans (MA) is a biomarker associated with mortality and life-threatening arrhythmias in heart failure patients. Despite showing prognostic value, its use is limited by the requirement of measuring the continuous blood pressure (BP), which is costly and impractical.

OBJECTIVE

To develop and test, for the first time, non-invasive MA surrogates based on photoplethysmography (PPG).

METHODS

Continuous BP and PPG were recorded during clinical procedures and tests in 35 patients. MA was induced either by ventricular pacing (Group A, N = 19) or exercise (Group B, N = 16). MA was categorized as sustained or intermittent if MA episodes were observed in at least 20 or between 12 and 20 consecutive beats, respectively. Eight features characterizing the pulse morphology were derived from the PPG, and MA surrogates were evaluated.

RESULTS

Sustained alternans was observed in 9 patients (47%) from Group A, whereas intermittent alternans was observed in 13 patients (68%) from Group A and in 10 patients (63%) from Group B. The PPG-based MA surrogate showing the highest accuracy, V^'_M, was based on the maximum of the first derivative of the PPG pulse. It detected both sustained and intermittent MA with 100% sensitivity and 100% specificity in Group A and intermittent MA with 100% sensitivity and 83% specificity in Group B. Furthermore, the magnitudes of MA and its PPG-based surrogate were linearly correlated (R² = 0.83, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

MA can be accurately identified non-invasively through PPG analysis. This may have important clinical implications for risk stratification and remote monitoring.

Utility of heart rate turbulence and T-wave alternans to assess risk for readmission and cardiac death in hospitalized heart failure patients

BACKGROUND

Heart failure (HF) patients have a higher risk of recurrent HF and cardiac death, and electrical remodeling is considered to be an important factor for HF progression. The present study aimed to validate the utility of electrocardiogram and Holter monitoring for the risk stratification of HF patients.

METHODS

Our study comprised 215 patients (144 males, mean age 62 years) who had been hospitalized due to acute decompensated HF. Electrocardiogram (QRS duration and QTc interval) and 24-hour Holter monitoring (heart rate variability, heart rate turbulence, and T-wave alternans [TWA]) were performed in stable condition before discharge. The clinical characteristics and outcomes were then investigated.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up period of 2.7 years, there were 83 (38.6%) cardiac events (rehospitalization due to worsening HF [n = 51] or cardiac death [n = 32]). The patients with cardiac events had a lower turbulence slope (TS) and higher TWA compared to those without cardiac events (TS, 3.0 ± 5.5 ms/RR vs. 5.3 ± 5.6 ms/RR, P = 0.001; TWA, 66.1 ± 19.6 μV vs. 54.7 ± 15.1 μV, P < 0.001). Univariable analysis showed that TS, TWA, QRS duration, and QTc interval were associated with cardiac events (P = 0.004, P < 0.001, P = 0.037, and P = 0.024, respectively), while the multivariable analysis after the adjustment of multiple confounders showed that TS and TWA were independent predictive factors of cardiac events with a hazard ratio of 0.936 and 1.015 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.860-0.974, P = 0.006; and 95% CI: 1.003-1.027, P = 0.016), respectively.

CONCLUSION

The measurement of TS and TWA is useful for assessing risk for rehospitalization and cardiac death in HF patients.

Severe abnormal Heart Rate Turbulence Onset is associated with deterioration of liver cirrhosis

Background

In patients with liver cirrhosis, cardiac dysfunction is frequent and is associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Cardiac dysfunction in cirrhosis seems to be linked to autonomic dysfunction. This study investigates the role of autonomic dysfunction assessed by Heart Rate Turbulence (HRT) analyses in patients with liver cirrhosis.

Methods and patients

Inclusion criteria was (1) diagnosis of cirrhosis by clinical, imaging or biopsy and (2) evaluation by standard 12-lead-ECG and 24h holter monitoring and (3) at least 3 premature ventricular contractions. The exclusion criterion was presence of cardiac diseases, independent of liver cirrhosis. Biochemical parameters were analysed using standard methods. HRT was assessed using Turbulence onset (TO) and slope (TS). The endpoint was deterioration of liver cirrhosis defined as increased MELD and readmission for complications of liver cirrhosis.

Results

Out of 122 cirrhotic patients, 82 patients (63% male) with median Child score of 6 (range 5–12) and median MELD score of 10 (range 6–32) were included. Increasing Child score, INR and decreasing albumin were correlated with TO. In addition, decompensated patients with ascites showed more abnormal TO and TS. During the observation period, patients with more abnormal TO showed significantly higher rate of rising MELD Score at 6 months (p = 0.03). Nevertheless, at least in our collective HRT-parameters were not independent predictors of deterioration of cirrhosis.

Conclusion

Parameters of HRT are closely associated with deterioration of cirrhosis and might be helpful in its prediction.

Heart rate variability as predictive factor for sudden cardiac death

Sudden cardiac death (SCD) represents about 25% of deaths in clinical cardiology. The identification of risk factors for SCD is the philosopher's stone of cardiology and the identification of non-invasive markers of risk of SCD remains one of the most important goals for the scientific community.The aim of this review is to analyze the state of the art around the heart rate variability (HRV) as a predictor factor for SCD.HRV is probably the most analyzed index in cardiovascular risk stratification technical literature, therefore an important number of models and methods have been developed.Nowadays, low HRV has been shown to be independently predictive of increased mortality in post- myocardial infarction patients, heart failure patients, in contrast with the data of the general population.Contrariwise, the relationship between HRV and SCD has received scarce attention in low-risk cohorts. Furthermore, in general population the attributable risk is modest and the cost/benefit ratio is not always convenient.The HRV evaluation could become an important tool for health status in risks population, even though the use of HRV alone for risk stratification of SCD is limited and further studies are needed.

Prediction of sudden death in elderly patients with heart failure

Most heart failure (HF) related mortality is due to sudden cardiac death (SCD) and worsening HF, particularly in the case of reduced ejection fraction. Predicting and preventing SCD is an important goal but most works include no or few patients with advanced age, and the prevention of SCD in elderly patients with HF is still controversial. A recent reduction in the annual rate of SCD has been recently described but it is not clear if this is also true in advanced age patients. Age is associated with SCD, although physicians frequently have the perception that elderly patients with HF die mainly of pump failure, underestimating the importance of SCD. Other clinical variables that have been associated to SCD are symptoms, New York Heart Association functional class, ischemic cause, and comorbidities (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, renal dysfunction and diabetes). Some test results that should also be considered are left ventricular ejection fraction and diameters, natriuretic peptides, non-sustained ventricular tachycardias and autonomic abnormalities. The combination of all these markers is probably the best option to predict SCD. Different risk scores have been described and, although there are no specific ones for elderly populations, most include age as a risk predictor and some were developed in populations with mean age > 65 years. Finally, it is important to stress that these scores should be able to predict any type of SCD as, although most are due to tachyarrhythmias, bradyarrhythmias also play a role, particularly in the case of the elderly.