Does the Mexican sugar-sweetened beverage tax have a signaling effect? ENSANUT 2016

Estimated changes in free sugar consumption one year after the UK soft drinks industry levy came into force: controlled interrupted time series analysis of the National Diet and Nutrition Survey (2011-2019)

BACKGROUND

The UK soft drinks industry levy (SDIL) was announced in March 2016 and implemented in April 2018, encouraging manufacturers to reduce the sugar content of soft drinks. This is the first study to investigate changes in individual-level consumption of free sugars in relation to the SDIL.

METHODS

We used controlled interrupted time series (2011-2019) to explore changes in the consumption of free sugars in the whole diet and from soft drinks alone 11 months after SDIL implementation in a nationally representative sample of adults (>18 years; n=7999) and children (1.5-19 years; n=7656) drawn from the UK National Diet and Nutrition Survey. Estimates were based on differences between observed data and a counterfactual scenario of no SDIL announcement/implementation. Models included protein consumption (control) and accounted for autocorrelation.

RESULTS

Accounting for trends prior to the SDIL announcement, there were absolute reductions in the daily consumption of free sugars from the whole diet in children and adults of 4.8 g (95% CI 0.6 to 9.1) and 10.9 g (95% CI 7.8 to 13.9), respectively. Comparable reductions in free sugar consumption from drinks alone were 3.0 g (95% CI 0.1 to 5.8) and 5.2 g (95% CI 4.2 to 6.1). The percentage of total dietary energy from free sugars declined over the study period but was not significantly different from the counterfactual.

CONCLUSION

The SDIL led to significant reductions in dietary free sugar consumption in children and adults. Energy from free sugar as a percentage of total energy did not change relative to the counterfactual, which could be due to simultaneous reductions in total energy intake associated with reductions in dietary free sugar.

Impact of the Philadelphia Beverage Tax on Perceived Beverage Healthfulness, Tax Awareness, and Tax Opinions

OBJECTIVE

To assess the impact of the Philadelphia Beverage Tax on perceived beverage healthfulness, and awareness and opinions of the tax.

DESIGN

Natural experiment SETTING: Small independent stores in Philadelphia (n = 61) and Baltimore (untaxed control site; n = 65) PARTICIPANTS: Shoppers in Philadelphia (n = 2,731) and Baltimore (n = 4,600) pre- and post-tax implementation.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Perceptions of 4 beverages (unhealthy vs healthy/neutral), tax awareness, and tax opinions (oppose vs favor/neutral).

ANALYSIS

Mixed-effects linear probability models estimated changes in perceived beverage healthfulness in Philadelphia, relative to Baltimore, following a difference-in-differences approach. Mixed-effects linear probability models estimated pre-post changes in tax awareness and opinions in Philadelphia-only.

RESULTS

The probability of perceiving taxed beverages as unhealthy increased 2-years post-tax relative to Baltimore (regular soda: 5.7% [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.9-10.6], P = 0.02; diet soda: 7.7% [95% CI, 1.5-13.8], P < 0.001; sports drinks: 6.4% [95% CI, 0.4-12.4], P = 0.04), with similar changes at 1-year post-tax, whereas perceived healthfulness of untaxed 100% fruit juice did not change. Tax awareness was high at baseline (72%) and increased post-implementation; however, the probability of opposing the tax (22%) also increased over time.

CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS

Decreases in the perceived healthfulness of taxed beverages suggest the tax had a health-signaling effect. Consumer awareness and health education efforts could complement tax policies to enhance understanding of health risks.

Do financial constraint and perceived stress modify the effects of food tax schemes on food purchases: moderation analyses in a virtual supermarket experiment

OBJECTIVE

To investigate whether financial constraint and perceived stress modify the effects of food-related taxes on the healthiness of food purchases.

DESIGN

Moderation analyses were conducted with data from a trial where participants were randomly exposed to: a control condition with regular food prices, an sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) tax condition with a two-tiered levy on the sugar content in SSB (5-8 g/100 ml: €0·21 per l and ≥8 g/100 ml: €0·28 per l) or a nutrient profiling tax condition where products with Nutri-Score D or E were taxed at a 20 percent level. Outcome measures were overall healthiness of food purchases (%), energy content (kcal) and SSB purchases (litres). Effect modification was analysed by adding interaction terms between conditions and self-reported financial constraint or perceived stress in regression models. Outcomes for each combination of condition and level of effect modifier were visualised.

SETTING

Virtual supermarket.

PARTICIPANTS

Dutch adults (n 386).

RESULTS

Financial constraint or perceived stress did not significantly modify the effects of food-related taxes on the outcomes. Descriptive analyses suggest that in the control condition, the overall healthiness of food purchases was lowest, and SSB purchases were highest among those with moderate/high levels of financial constraint. Compared with the control condition, in a nutrient profiling tax condition, the overall healthiness of food purchases was higher and SSB purchases were lower, especially among those with moderate/high levels of financial constraint. Such patterns were not observed for perceived stress.

CONCLUSION

Further studies with larger samples are recommended to assess whether food-related taxes differentially affect food purchases of subgroups.

How Could Taxes on Sugary Drinks and Foods Help Reduce the Burden Of Type 2 Diabetes?

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Taxes on sugary drinks and foods have emerged as a key strategy to counteract the alarming levels of diabetes worldwide. Added sugar consumption from industrialized foods and beverages has been strongly linked to type 2 diabetes. This review provides a synthesis of evidence on how taxes on sugary products can influence the onset of type 2 diabetes, describing the importance of the different mechanisms through which the consumption of these products is reduced, leading to changes in weight and potentially a decrease in the incidence of type 2 diabetes.

RECENT FINDINGS

Observational studies have shown significant reductions in purchases, energy intake, and body weight after the implementation of taxes on sugary drinks or foods. Simulation studies based on the association between energy intake and type 2 diabetes estimated the potential long-term health and economic effects, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, suggesting that the implementation of sugary food and beverage taxes may have a meaningful impact on reducing type 2 diabetes and complications. Public health response to diabetes requires multi-faceted approaches from health and non-health actors to drive healthier societies. Population-wide strategies, such as added sugar taxes, highlight the potential benefits of financial incentives to address behaviors and protective factors to significantly change an individual's health trajectory and reduce the onset of type 2 diabetes worldwide, both in terms of economy and public health.

The Navajo Nation Healthy Diné Nation Act: Community Support of a 2% Tax on Unhealthy Foods

CONTEXT

The Healthy Diné Nation Act (HDNA) of 2014 included a 2% tax on foods of little-to-no-nutritious value ("junk foods") on the Navajo Nation. The law was the first ever in the United States and any Indigenous nation worldwide with a population at a high risk for common nutrition-related conditions. To date, research on community support for food tax legislation among Indigenous nations is entirely lacking.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the extent of support for the HDNA and factors associated with support including sociodemographic variables, knowledge of the HDNA, nutrition intake, and pricing preferences.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional survey.

SETTING

The Navajo Nation.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 234 Navajo Nation community members across 21 communities.

OUTCOME MEASURES

The percentage of participants who were supportive of the HDNA.

RESULTS

Participants were 97% Navajo, on average middle-aged, 67% reported an income below $25 000 annually, and 69.7% were female. Half of the respondents said they "support" (37.4%) or "strongly support" (13.0%) the tax, while another 35% of people said they were neutral or somewhat supportive; 15% did not support the tax. Participants with higher income ( P = .025) and education ( P = .026) and understanding of the legislation ( P < .001 for "very well" vs "not at all") had increased odds of greater support, as did people who believed that the HDNA would make Navajo people healthier (vs not, P < .001). Age, gender, language, and reported nutrition intake (healthy or unhealthy) were not associated with HDNA support, but participants willing to pay 5% or 12%-15% higher prices for fast food and soda had increased odds of greater support ( P values range from .023 to <.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The majority of Navajo community members surveyed were moderately supportive of the Navajo Nation tax on unhealthy foods. Higher income and education and understanding of the law were associated with greater support, but nutrition intake was not.

Comparison of Dietary Intake Before vs After Taxes on Sugar-Sweetened Beverages and Nonessential Energy-Dense Foods in Mexico, 2012 to 2018

Importance

Tax evaluations have shown effectiveness in reducing purchases of taxed items. However, few studies have looked at changes in overall dietary intake according to national surveys.

Objective

To estimate the contribution of taxed and untaxed beverages and foods to dietary intake over time, and the nutritional dietary profile in total beverages and foods consumed.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cross-sectional study used data from 3 National Health and Nutrition Surveys of a nationally representative sample of participants aged older than 1 year in Mexico from 2012 (pretax), 2016, and 2018 (posttax). Data were analyzed from September 2021 to December 2022.

Exposure

Taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages and nonessential energy-dense foods implemented since 2014.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The outcomes were the contribution of taxed and untaxed beverages to total beverage volume, the contribution of taxed and untaxed foods to total food energy, and the energy density and content of added sugars and saturated fats. Outcomes were assessed with 24-hour recalls (24HR) (2012 and 2016) and Food Frequency Questionnaires (FFQ) (2012, 2016, and 2018), and were adjusted by sociodemographic and macroeconomic variables.

Results

A total of 17 239 participants were analyzed from 2012, 18 974 from 2016, and 30 027 from 2018; approximately 50% were men, and approximately 75% lived in urban areas. According to 24HRs, the contribution of taxed beverages to total beverage volume changed -2.3 (95% CI, -4.4 to -0.2) percentage points from 2012 to 2016, while water increased. The contribution of taxed foods to total food energy changed -3.0 (95% CI, -4.2 to -1.8) percentage points, while untaxed whole grains, processed meats, other animal sources, and sugars and desserts increased. The content in total beverages of added sugars changed -1.1 kcal/100 mL (95% CI, -2.0 to -0.2), and in total foods, the content of added sugar changed -0.6 %kcal (95% CI, -1.0 to -0.2), saturated fat changed -0.8 %kcal (95% CI, -1.1 to -0.4), and energy density changed -9.8 kcal/100 g (95% CI, -13.8 to -5.8). Main results were consistent with the FFQ (up to 2018), with some differences in subgroups and nutritional components.

Conclusions and Relevance

The findings of this study on 3 cross-sectional national dietary surveys are consistent with previous evaluations; after tax implementation, there was a decrease in the contribution of taxed items. Furthermore, some unhealthy untaxed items increased, but the content of unhealthful nutritional components, particularly added sugar, in overall beverages and foods decreased.

Using GRADE Evidence to Decision frameworks to support the process of health policy-making: an example application regarding taxation of sugar-sweetened beverages

BACKGROUND

Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) Evidence to Decision (EtD) frameworks are well-known tools that enable guideline panels to structure the process of developing recommendations and making decisions in healthcare and public health. To date, they have not regularly been used for health policy-making. This article aims to illustrate the application of the GRADE EtD frameworks in the process of nutrition-related policy-making for a European country.

METHODS

Based on methodological guidance by the GRADE Working Group and the findings of our recently published scoping review, we illustrate the process of moving from evidence to recommendations, by applying the EtD frameworks to a fictitious example. Sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) taxation based on energy density was chosen as an example application.

RESULTS

A fictitious guideline panel was convened by a national nutrition association to develop a population-level recommendation on SSB taxation aiming to reduce the burden of overweight and obesity. Exemplary evidence was summarized for each EtD criterion and conclusions were drawn based on all judgements made in relation to each criterion. As a result of the high priority to reduce the burden of obesity and because of the moderate desirable effects on health outcomes, but considering scarce or varying research evidence for other EtD criteria, the panel made a conditional recommendation for SSB taxation. Decision-makers may opt for conducting a pilot study prior to implementing the policy on a national level.

CONCLUSIONS

GRADE EtD frameworks can be used by guideline panels to make the process of developing recommendations in the field of health policy more systematic, transparent and comprehensible.

Public perception of the tax on sweetened beverages in France

OBJECTIVE

To assess in 2021 the acceptance and perception of the French tax on sweetened beverages, following its revision in 2018, and factors associated with a higher level of acceptance.

DESIGN

A cross-sectional survey within the NutriNet-Santé cohort study. Participants were invited to complete a self-reported questionnaire in March 2021. Weighting was applied to the sample to allow inferences on the French population. Individual characteristics associated with support for the tax were investigated using logistic regression modelling.

SETTINGS

NutriNet-Santé prospective cohort study.

PARTICIPANTS

Adults engaged in the NutriNet-Santé cohort, aged 18 years or older (n 28 344), living in mainland France.

RESULTS

Almost two-thirds (63·4 %) of the participants were aware of the existence of a tax on sweetened beverages, although less than a quarter had specific knowledge regarding its design and the 2018 revision. In turn, 64·7 % of participants expressed a favourable opinion towards the taxation scheme. This proportion was higher if tax revenues were used to finance health-related measures (respectively 68·8 % of favourable opinion if used to finance a reduction in prices of healthy products and 76·4 % if used to finance the healthcare system). Multivariable analyses showed that support towards the tax varied among subgroups of the population. Groups who tended to be less financially affected by the measure and those who perceived sugar-sweetened beverages as having detrimental effects were more likely to support the tax.

CONCLUSION

The revised French sugar-sweetened beverage tax appeared to be favourably received and perceived by the public.

Are intentions to change, policy awareness, or health knowledge related to changes in dietary intake following a sugar-sweetened beverage tax in South Africa? A before-and-after study

BACKGROUND

In April 2018, South Africa implemented the Health Promotion Levy (HPL), one of the first sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) taxes to be based on each gram of sugar (beyond 4 g/100mL). The objectives of this study were to examine whether the psychological constructs tax awareness, SSB knowledge, SSB risk perception, and intentions to reduce SSB intake were associated with taxed beverage intake, whether they changed from pre- to post-tax, and whether they modified the effect of the HPL.

METHODS

We collected single day 24-hour dietary recalls surveyed from repeat cross-sectional surveys of adults aged 18-39 years in Langa, South Africa. Participants were recruited in February-March 2018 (pre-tax, N = 2,481) and February-March 2019 (post-tax, N = 2,507) using door-to-door sampling. Surveys measured tax awareness, SSB knowledge, SSB risk perception, and intention to reduce SSB intake. SSB intake was estimated using a two-part model. To examine changes over time, logistic regression models were used for binary outcomes (tax awareness and intention to reduce SSB consumption) and linear regression models for continuous outcomes (SSB knowledge SSB risk perceptions). Effect modification was tested using interaction terms for each psychological construct with time.

RESULTS

No constructs were associated with SSB intake at baseline. At post-tax, the predicted probability to consume taxed beverages was 33.5% (95% CI 28.5-38.5%) for those who expressed an intention to reduce SSB intake compared to 45.9% (95% CI 43.7-48.1%) for those who did not. Among consumers, intending to reduce SSB intake was associated with 55 (95% CI 28 to 82) kcal/capita/day less SSBs consumed. Tax awareness, SSB knowledge, and SSB risk perception increased by a small amount from pre- to post-tax. Intentions to reduce SSB intake was lower in the post-tax period. The tax effect on SSB intake was modified by SSB knowledge and intention to reduce SSB intake, with higher levels of each associated with lower SSB intake.

CONCLUSION

After the South African SSB tax was implemented, SSB knowledge and risk perception increased slightly, tax awareness remained low, and only SSB knowledge and behavioral intention to change were significantly associated with taxed beverage intake among participants recruited from a low-income South African township.

Prevalence of multiple non-communicable diseases risk factors among adolescents in 140 countries: A population-based study

BACKGROUND

Modifiable non-communicable disease (NCD) risk factors are becoming increasingly common among adolescents, with clustering of these risk factors in individuals of particular concern. The aim of this study was to assess global status of clustering of common modifiable NCD risk factors among adolescents.

METHODS

We used latest available data from nationally representative survey for 140 countries, namely the Global School-based Student Health Survey, the Health Behaviour in School-Aged Children and the longitudinal study of Australian Children. Weighted mean estimates of prevalence with corresponding 95% confidence intervals of nine NCD risk factors - physical inactivity, sedentary behaviour, insufficient fruits and vegetable consumption, carbonated soft drink consumption, fast food consumption, tobacco use, alcohol consumption and overweight/obesity - were calculated by country, region and sex.

FINDINGS

Over 487,565 adolescents, aged 11-17 years, were included in this study. According to trend analysis, prevalence of four or more NCD risk factors increased gradually over time. Prevalence of four or more NCD risk factors was 14.8% in 2003-2007 and increased to 44% in 2013-2017, an approximately three-fold increase (44.0%). Similar trends were also observed for three and two risk factors. Large variation between countries in the prevalence of adolescents with four or more risk factors was found in all regions. The country level range was higher in the South-East Asia Region (minimum Sri Lanka = 8%, maximum Myanmar = 84%) than Western Pacific Region (minimum China = 3%, maximum Niue = 72%), European Region (minimum Sweden = 13.9%, maximum Ireland = 66.0%), African Region (minimum Senegal = 0.8%, maximum Uganda = 82.1%) and Eastern Mediterranean Region (minimum Libya = 0.2%, maximum Lebanon = 80.2%). Insufficient vegetable consumption, insufficient fruit consumption and physically inactivity were three of the four most prevalent risk factors in all regions.

INTERPRETATION

Our results suggest a high prevalence of four or more NCD risk factors in adolescents globally, although variation was found between countries. Results from our study indicate that efforts to reduce adolescent NCD risk factors and the associated health burden need to be improved. These findings can assist policy makers to target the rollout of country- specific interventions.

FUNDING

None.

The 'sugar tax' in Bermuda: a mixed methods study of general population and key stakeholder perceptions

Background

Taxes on discretionary foods and sugar-sweetened beverages have emerged as a strategy for health promotion. Between 2018–2019, the Bermuda government introduced a phased tax on imported sugar-sweetened beverages, confectionery, products containing cocoa and pure sugar, and eliminated import duties on select healthy food items. The aim of this study was to conduct an mixed methods evaluation of perceptions of the tax among the general population and key stakeholders.

Methods

We conducted a survey of the general population (N = 400), and semi-structured interviews with key informants (N = 14) from the government, food and beverage, and health sectors to understand awareness, acceptability, and perceived impact of the tax after implementation. Survey data was analysed using thematic analysis, summary statistics, and Chi-squared tests. Key informant interviews were analysed using the framework method.

Results

General population respondents had high awareness of the sugar tax (94%) but low awareness of the healthy food subsidy (32%). Most respondents (67%) felt the tax was not an appropriate way to motivate healthier consumption due to beliefs the tax would not be effective (44%), and because of the high price of healthy food (20%). However, nearly half (48%) reported consuming fewer taxed products, primarily for health reasons but also motivated by price increases. Key informants indicated there was high awareness but limited understanding of the tax policy. Informants expressed support for taxation as a health promotion strategy, conditional on policy implementation. The lack of clear price differentiation between taxed and un-taxed products and the absence of accompanying health education were key factors believed to affect the impact of the tax. No informants were aware of use of tax revenues for health purposes and tax revenue was reportedly re-directed to other priorities after implementation.

Conclusions

There was high awareness, but limited acceptability of the Bermuda sugar tax as implemented. Clarity in the tax policy, appropriateness of the tax mechanism, and use of revenue in alignment with the tax aim are critical components for acceptance. The absence of complementary education and health promotion affected acceptance and may limit potential health impacts. The lessons learned in Bermuda can inform similar policies in other settings.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-022-13945-9.

A review of implementation and evaluation of Pan American Health Organization's policies to prevent childhood obesity in Latin America

Rationale

To inform future policies, the study objectives were to determine to what extent the policies included in the 5-year Plan of Action for the Prevention of Obesity in Children and Adolescents-proposed by Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) and signed by 19 Latin America countries in 2014-have been implemented and evaluated.

Methods

A scoping review of the Governmental websites for Latin American countries and a literature review was conducted to identify whether policies have been implemented and evaluated. Key information was abstracted.

Results

The review identified 115 PAHO policies/interventions implemented (43% implemented after signing the proposed plan in 2014). Nearly all (18/19) countries implemented food guidelines or school feeding programs, but fiscal and marketing policies were less commonly implemented (6/19). Through the review, 44 evaluations of PAHO policies were identified of which 23% were qualitative and 77% quantitative. The results of these evaluations were in general positive (e.g., decrease in sugar-sweetened beverages consumption following tax implementation) but no studies evaluated the outcome of reduced obesity.

Conclusions

PAHO recommended policies have been implemented to various degrees in Latin America since 2014 and more research is required to understand their impacts on child and adolescent obesity.

Shopper Purchasing Trends at Small Stores on the Navajo Nation since the Passage of the Healthy Diné Nation Act Tax: A Multi-Year Cross-sectional Survey

Background

In 2014, the Navajo Nation passed the Healthy Diné Nation Act (HDNA), which applies an additional 2% tax on unhealthy foods and beverages and a waiver of Navajo sales tax on healthy foods and beverages. However, the HDNA's impact on purchasing behavior has not been explored.

Objectives

We assessed beverage and produce purchasing trends among shoppers at small Navajo stores between 2017 and 2019, shopper characteristics associated with buying water, and whether HDNA awareness was associated with purchasing behaviors.

Methods

A total of 332 shoppers at 34 stores in 2017 and 274 shoppers at 44 stores in 2019 were surveyed to assess HDNA awareness and same-day purchasing of water, sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs), fruits, and vegetables. Hypotheses were tested using chi-square analyses and multivariate analysis.

Results

Water purchasing among respondents increased significantly from 2017 to 2019 (24.4% to 32.8%; P = 0.03). Shoppers in 2019 were 1.5 times more likely to purchase water compared with 2017 (adjusted P = 0.01). There was a trend toward reduced SSB purchasing (85.8% in 2017, 80.3% in 2019, P = 0.068), while produce purchasing remained unchanged over time, at approximately 17%. Shoppers were more likely to buy water if they relied on that store for the majority of their groceries (P = 0.006) and if they did not have their own transportation to get to the store (P = 0.004). Most shoppers (56.6%) were aware of the HDNA; of these, 35.6% attributed healthier habits to the HDNA, most commonly buying more healthy drinks (49.2%), fewer unhealthy drinks (37.7%), more healthy snacks (31.1%), and fewer unhealthy snacks (26.2%).

Conclusions

Shopper habits at small stores located on the Navajo Nation have shifted towards healthier purchasing from 2017 to 2019. Shoppers who were aware of the HDNA reported purchasing more healthy and fewer unhealthy food and drinks as a result of this legislation.

The effects of a sugar-sweetened beverage tax and a nutrient profiling tax based on Nutri-Score on consumer food purchases in a virtual supermarket: a randomised controlled trial

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the effects of a sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) tax and a nutrient profiling tax on consumer food purchases in a virtual supermarket.

DESIGN

A randomised controlled trial was conducted with a control condition with regular food prices (n 152), an SSB tax condition (n 130) and a nutrient profiling tax condition based on Nutri-Score (n 112). Participants completed a weekly grocery shop for their household. Primary outcome measures were SSB purchases (ordinal variable) and the overall healthiness of the total shopping basket (proportion of total unit food items classified as healthy). The secondary outcome measure was the energy (kcal) content of the total shopping basket. Data were analysed using regression analyses.

SETTING

Three-dimensional virtual supermarket.

PARTICIPANTS

Dutch adults aged ≥18 years are being responsible for grocery shopping in their household (n 394).

RESULTS

The SSB tax (OR = 1·62, (95 % CI 1·03, 2·54)) and the nutrient profiling tax (OR = 1·88, (95 %CI 1·17, 3·02)) increased the likelihood of being in a lower-level category of SSB purchases. The overall healthiness of the total shopping basket was higher (+2·7 percent point, (95 % CI 0·1, 5·3)), and the energy content was lower (-3301 kcal, (95 % CI -6425, -177)) for participants in the nutrient profiling tax condition than for those in the control condition. The SSB tax did not affect the overall healthiness and energy content of the total shopping basket (P > 0·05).

CONCLUSIONS

A nutrient profiling tax targeting a wide range of foods and beverages with a low nutritional quality seems to have larger beneficial effects on consumer food purchases than taxation of SSB alone.

Impacts of the Seattle Sweetened Beverage Tax on the Perceived Healthfulness of Sweetened Beverages

Sweetened beverage taxes are associated with significant reductions in the purchase of sweetened beverages. However, it is unclear whether these taxes play a role in shifting perceptions about sweetened beverages and their health impacts. We utilized pre- and post-tax survey data collected from residents in Seattle, WA, a city that implemented a sweetened beverage tax in 2018 and from residents in an untaxed comparison area. We used income-stratified difference-in-difference linear probability models to compare net changes in the perceived healthfulness of overall sweetened beverage consumption and of different types of sugary beverages over time and across income groups. We found significant increases in the percentage of Seattle respondents with lower incomes who agreed that sweetened beverage consumption raises the risk of diabetes (DD = 9 percentage points (pp) (95% CI: 5 pp, 13 pp); p = 0.002), heart disease (DD = 7 pp (95% CI: 2 pp, 12 pp); p = 0.017), and serious health problems (DD = 12 pp (95% CI: 5 pp, 19 pp); p = 0.009), above and beyond changes in the comparison area. The most prominent changes in perceived health impacts of sweetened beverages were found among lower-income Seattle respondents, while fewer changes were found among higher-income Seattle respondents. Future work could examine the relationship between exposure to pro-tax messaging and changes in consumer perceptions of sweetened beverages.

Changes in Weight-Related Outcomes Among Adolescents Following Consumer Price Increases of Taxed Sugar-Sweetened Beverages

IMPORTANCE

Following the implementation of a tax on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) in Mexico in 2014, SSB prices increased by about 10% on average, but differently across cities. It remains unclear how observed SSB price changes are associated with adolescent weight-related outcomes.

OBJECTIVE

To compare weight-related outcomes among adolescents living in cities with differential SSB price changes before and after the SSB tax was implemented in Mexico.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Associations between differential SSB price changes and changes in weight-related outcomes were examined overall and by sex among 12 654 adolescents aged 10 to 18 years born between 1999 and 2002 living in 39 cities in Mexico. Multivariate regressions with individual fixed effects were applied on longitudinal individual-level yearly clinical data (height and weight) from 2012 to 2017 collected by the Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social (IMSS) and merged with city-level SSB price data from 2011 to 2016 collected by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI). Data were analyzed from July 2018 to July 2021.

EXPOSURES

Yearly city-level changes in SSB prices between 2011 and 2016.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Age- and sex-specific body mass index (BMI; calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared) percentile and indicator for overweight or obesity if BMI was at or above the 85th percentile.

RESULTS

Before 2014, 46% of 12 654 adolescents (6850 girls and 5804 boys) included in this study had obesity or overweight. The mean (SD) age was 11.38 (1.08) years. Among girls, a 10% SSB price increase was associated with a 1.3 percentage point absolute decrease (95% CI, -2.19 to -0.36; P = .008) or a 3% relative decrease in overweight or obesity prevalence within 2 years of a price change. For girls with BMI at or above the 75th percentile pretax, this price increase was associated with a 0.59 lower BMI percentile (95% CI, -1.08 to -0.10; P = .02) or a 0.67% relative decrease. Improved outcomes for girls were observed in cities where price increases were greater than 10% after the tax. No such associations were observed for boys.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this study, increased SSB prices were associated with decreased overweight or obesity prevalence among girls but not among boys. Improvements in outcomes were small, and mostly observed for girls with heavier weight and in cities where price increases after the tax were greater than 10%.

Soda Consumption Among Mexican Construction Workers in the Context of the Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Tax

This study explored the psychosocial determinants of consumption of soda and other taxed sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) in Mexican construction workers (CWs) and whether consumption changed as a result of the 2014 SSB tax. We conducted a qualitative case study involving in-depth interviews and focus groups (FGs) with 30 Mexican CWs; supplemented with descriptions of the food and beverages consumed during lunch breaks. We used NVivo 10 to classify information according to the analysis categories, primarily informed by the Reasoned Action Approach (RAA). CWs reported not having changed their consumption of soda and other taxed SSBs as a result of the SSB tax, despite the price increase and "knowing" the potential negative consequences of soda drinking. The most important determinants of soda consumption are a deep-seated social norm of soda drinking and use of soda drinking as part of their professional identity; their likeness for soda; a wide availability of soda in their environments; and a low perceived behavioral control (because they thought themselves as addicted to it). Participants indicated that the best way for them not to consume soda would be if it were not available. These findings lend support for the tight regulation of the availability of SSBs. To have a meaningful impact on these consumers, the SSB tax may need to be much higher. Policy-level interventions should be coupled with interventions at the individual and community levels that aim at denormalizing soda consumption, create new meanings in relation to water consumption, and develop behavioral control to decrease soda consumption.

The Impact of Seattle's Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Tax on Substitution to Sweets and Salty Snacks

BACKGROUND

Sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) taxes may have broad effects on purchases of untaxed foods, and substitution of SSBs with untaxed sweets and/or salty snacks could offset the intended dietary and health effects of these policies.

OBJECTIVES

To test whether there were changes in sales and calories sold for untaxed foods in response to the SSB tax in Seattle, Washington, at 12 and 24 months post-tax implementation.

METHODS

On 1 January 2018, the City of Seattle levied a 1.75 cents per ounce excise tax on distributors selling targeted SSBs. We utilized universal product code-level store scanner data and employed a difference-in-differences approach to assess the impacts of the tax on the changes in 1) sales of sweets and salty snacks; and 2) total calories sold for sweets in Seattle relative to changes in its comparison site of Portland, Oregon, at 12 and 24 months post-tax.

RESULTS

In the 12 months post-tax, sales of sweets increased by 4% [ratio of incidence rate ratios (RIRR), 1.04; 95% CI, 1.03-1.05] in Seattle relative to the changes in Portland; at 24 months post-tax, sweet sales increased by 6% (RIRR, 1.06; 95% CI, 1.05-1.07) relative to the pretax period. There was no significant change in sales of salty snacks at 12 months (RIRR, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.99-1.01) or 24 months (RIRR, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.98-1.02) post-tax. Total calories sold for sweets increased by 3% (RIRR, 1.03; 95% CI, 1.02-1.05) in Seattle compared with Portland at 12 months post-tax and by 4% (RIRR, 1.04; 95% CI, 1.02-1.05) at 24 months after implementation.

CONCLUSIONS

There was modest substitution of SSBs for sweets in Seattle following tax implementation. However, this increase in sales and calories sold is not likely to offset previously identified tax-related reductions in the demand for taxed beverages in Seattle. Thus, SSB taxes are a promising policy tool to reduce caloric intake in the United States.

Simulating international tax designs on sugar-sweetened beverages in Mexico

In response to the high prevalence of overweight and obesity, Mexico implemented a volumetric tax of one Mexican peso (MP) per liter of sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) in 2014. In contrast to Mexico's volumetric tax design, the United Kingdom (UK) and South Africa (ZA) implemented SSB taxes based on sugar density. This kind of tax is likely to yield larger health benefits than volumetric taxes by imposing a larger tax burden on high-sugar SSB and/or encouraging reformulation. However, sugar-density taxes might yield lower tax revenues. This study aims to simulate the effect of sugar-density taxes as those in the UK and ZA on SSB purchases (in terms of volume and sugar), SSB prices, and tax revenue in Mexico and compare this effect to its counterpart under the current volumetric SSB tax. Additionally, we simulate the effect of sugar-density taxes under different scenarios of reformulation. We conducted all these simulations based on a structural model of demand and supply using household purchase data for 2012-2015 in urban Mexico. We found that the current volumetric one-MP tax led to an SSB purchase reduction of 19% for both volume and sugar and an SSB price increases by MP $1.24. We simulated similar effects under the UK and ZA sugar-density taxes when these taxes were equivalent to the volumetric one-MP tax, and there was no reformulation. When assuming reformulation, the sugar reduction under the sugar-density taxes was up to twice larger than the volumetric one-MP tax. However, we found that the volumetric one-MP tax yielded the largest tax revenue across all tax designs. From a public health perspective, sugar-density taxes are likely to be more effective in tackling the overweight and obesity prevalence in Mexico; however, tax revenue might be lower under these taxes.

Evidence of a health risk 'signalling effect' following the introduction of a sugar-sweetened beverage tax

Consuming sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) has been associated with increased rates of obesity and type 2 diabetes, making SSBs an increasingly popular target for taxation. In addition to changing prices, the introduction of an SSB tax may convey information about the health risks of SSBs (a signalling effect). If SSB taxation operates in part by producing a health risk signal, there may be important opportunities to amplify this effect. Our aim was to assess whether there is evidence of a risk signalling effect following the introduction of the Barbados SSB tax. We used process tracing to assess the existence of a signalling effect around sodas and sugar-sweetened juices (juice drinks). We used three data sources: 611 archived transcripts of local television news, 30 interviews with members of the public, and electronic point of sales data (46 months) from a major grocery store chain. We used directed content analysis to assess the qualitative data and an interrupted time series analysis to assess the quantitative data. We found evidence consistent with a risk signalling effect following the introduction of the SSB tax for sodas but not for juice drinks. Consistent with risk signalling theory, the findings suggest that consumers were aware of the tax, believed in a health rationale for the tax, understood that sodas were taxed and perceived that sodas and juice drinks were unhealthy. However consumers appear not to have understood that juice drinks were taxed, potentially reducing tax effectiveness from a health perspective. In addition, the tax may have incentivised companies to increase advertising around juice drinks (undermining any signalling effect) and to introduce low-cost SSB product lines. Policymakers can maximize the impact of risk signals by being clear about the definition of taxed SSBs, emphasizing the health rationale for introducing such a policy, and introducing co-interventions (e.g. marketing restrictions) that reduce opportunities for industry countersignals. These actions may amplify the impact of an SSB tax.

Assessing sugar-sweetened beverage intakes, added sugar intakes and BMI before and after the implementation of a sugar-sweetened beverage tax in South Africa

OBJECTIVE

To provide insight into the context and public health implications of the South African sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) tax (Health Promotion Levy; HPL) by describing SSB and added sugar intakes, as well as BMI, 1 year prior to, at the time of and 1 year after implementation of the HPL.

DESIGN

Longitudinal dietary intake was assessed using a quantitative food frequency questionnaire (QFFQ) and BMI was measured via anthropometry.

SETTING

Soweto, Johannesburg, South Africa.

PARTICIPANTS

Adolescents, young adults and middle-aged adults (n 617).

RESULTS

At baseline, median SSB intakes were 36 ml/d, 214 ml/d and 750 ml/d for those in low, medium and high consumption tertiles, respectively. SSB intake decreased by two times/week in medium consumers and seven times/week in high consumers between baseline and 12 months, equivalent to 107 ml/d and 536 ml/d reductions, respectively. These reduced levels were maintained in the following year (i.e. to 24 months). There was an overall decrease in the amount of energy consumed as added sugar in the low (-48 kJ/d), medium (-153 kJ/d) and high (-106 kJ/d) SSB consumption groups between baseline and 24 months; however, the percentage of total energy consumed as added sugar remained relatively consistent (between 10 and 11 %). There were small overall increases in BMI across low (0·6 kg/m2), medium (0·9 kg/m2) and high (1·0 kg/m2) SSB tertiles between baseline and 24 months.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings suggest reductions in SSB and added sugar consumption contemporaneous to the introduction of the HPL - particularly for those with higher baseline intakes.

Sin taxes and their effect on consumption, revenue generation and health improvement: a systematic literature review in Latin America

Sin or public health taxes are excise taxes imposed on the consumption of potentially harmful goods for health [sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs), tobacco, alcohol, among others], aiming to reduce consumption, raise additional revenue and/or improve population health. This paper assesses the extent to which sin taxes (a) can reduce consumption of potentially harmful goods, (b) raise revenue for national health systems and (c) contribute to population health in Latin America. A systematic literature review was conducted on peer-reviewed and grey literature; endpoints included: impact of raising sin taxes on consumption, ability to raise revenue for health and the possibility of population health improvements. Risk of bias for each study was assessed. The synthesis of the literature on sin tax implementation showed improvements in all three endpoints across the study countries. Following the introduction of sin taxes or by simulating their potential impact, nearly all studies explicitly reported that consumption of potentially harmful goods (mainly SSBs and tobacco) declined; revenue was found to have increased in almost all countries, suggesting that there may be additional scope for further tax increase. Simulated improvements in population health have also been shown, by demonstrating a relationship between sin tax increases and reduction in prevalence of diabetes, stroke, heart attacks and associated deaths. However, sin tax effects on health would be better quantified over the long-term. Data quality and availability challenges did place some limitations on sin tax impact assessment. Sin taxes can be effective in reducing consumption of potentially harmful goods, improve population health and generate additional revenue. Promoting further research on this topic should be a priority.

Changes in take-home aerated soft drink purchases in urban India after the implementation of Goods and Services Tax (GST): An interrupted time series analysis

OBJECTIVES

Taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB) are increasingly being implemented as public health interventions to limit the consumption of sugar and reduce associated health risks. In July 2017, India imposed a new tax rate on aerated (carbonated) drinks as part of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) reform. This study investigates the post-GST changes in the purchase of aerated drinks in urban India.

METHODS

An interrupted time series analysis was conducted on state-level monthly take-home purchases of aerated drinks in urban India from January 2013 to June 2018. We assessed changes in the year-on-year growth rate (i.e. percentage change) in aerated drink purchases with controls for contextual variables.

RESULTS

We found no evidence of a reduction in state-level monthly take-home aerated drink purchases in urban India following the implementation of GST. Further analysis showed that the year-on-year growth rate in aerated drink purchases increased slightly (0.1 percentage point per month, 95%CI = 0.018, 0.181) after the implementation of GST; however, this trend was temporary and decreased over time (0.008 percentage point per month, 95%CI = -0.015, -0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

In India, a country currently with low aerated drink consumption, the implementation of GST was not associated with a reduction in aerated drink purchase in urban settings. Due to the lack of accurate and sufficiently detailed price data, it is not possible to say whether this finding is driven by prices not changing sufficiently. Furthermore, the impact of GST reform on industry practice (reformulation, marketing) and individual behaviour choices (substitution) is unknown and warrants further investigation to understand how such taxes could be implemented to deliver public health benefits.

Do taxes on unhealthy foods and beverages influence food purchases?

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Interest in taxes on unhealthy foods and beverages as a public health tool has increased in recent years. This paper aimed to summarise recent evidence of the impact of taxes on unhealthy foods and beverages on food purchases, and discuss opportunities to advance knowledge and policy impact.

RECENT FINDINGS

Evaluations of taxes on unhealthy foods and beverages have shown reductions in purchases of targeted unhealthy products and nutrients. Similarly, data from multiple sources demonstrate that as prices of unhealthy foods and beverages increase, purchase volume decreases. However, studies indicate potential for substitution to non-taxed unhealthy foods, which needs to be factored into taxation design. Taxes on unhealthy foods and beverages are a promising strategy to improve population diets. Further research is required to understand food industry responses to tax implementation, as well as the impact of taxes on population and planetary health outcomes.

Examining the news media reaction to a national sugary beverage tax in South Africa: a quantitative content analysis

BACKGROUND

South Africa was the first sub-Saharan African country to implement a sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) tax called the Health Promotion Levy (HPL) in April 2018. Given news media can increase public awareness and sway opinions, this study analyzed how the media represented the HPL, including expressions of support or challenge, topics associated with the levy, and stakeholder views of the HPL.

METHODS

We performed a quantitative content analysis of online South African news articles related to the HPL published between January 1, 2017 and June 30, 2019. We coded the presence or absence of mentions related to health and economic effects of the HPL and HPL support or opposition. Prevalence of these mentions, overall and by source (industry, government, academics, other), were analyzed with Pearson χ2 and post-hoc Fisher exact tests.

RESULTS

Across all articles, 81% mentioned health, and 65% mentioned economics topics. 54% of articles expressed support, 26% opposition, and 20% a balanced view of the HPL. All sources except industry expressed majority support for the HPL. Health reasons were the most common justifications for support, and economic harms were the most common justifications for opposition. Statements that sugar intake is not related to obesity, the HPL will not reduce SSB intake, and the HPL will cause industry or economic harm were all disproportionately high in industry sources (92, 80, and 81% vs 25% prevalence in total sample) (p < 0.001). Statements that sugar intake is related to obesity and non-communicable diseases were disproportionately high in both government (46 and 54% vs 31% prevalence in total sample) (p < 0.001) and academics (33 and 38% vs 25% prevalence in total sample) (p < 0.05). Statements that the HPL will improve health and the HPL will reduce health care costs were disproportionately high in government (47% vs 31% prevalence in total sample) (p < 0.001) and academics (44% vs 25% prevalence in total sample) (p < 0.05), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Industry expressed no support for the HPL, whereas academics, government, and other sources mainly expressed support. Future studies would be improved by linking news media exposure to SSB intake data to better understand the effects news media may have on individual behavior change.

Equity of expenditure changes associated with a sweetened-beverage tax in Tonga: repeated cross-sectional household surveys

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study was to examine changes in beverage expenditure patterns before and after a T$0.50/L sweetened-beverage (SB) excise was introduced in Tonga in 2013, by household income, household age composition and island of residence.

METHODS

Two cross-sectional surveys involved households being randomly sampled (the Household Income and Expenditure Surveys in 2009 (n = 1982) and 2015/16 (n = 1800)). Changes in soft drink (taxed), bottled water, and milk (both untaxed) expenditure were examined namely: (i) prevalence of households purchasing the beverage; (ii) average expenditure per person (inflation-adjusted); (iii) expenditure as a proportion of household food budget; and (iv) expenditure per person as a proportion of equivalised income.

RESULTS

The pattern found was of decreases in all soft drink expenditure outcomes and these appeared to be greater in low-income than high-income households for purchasing prevalence (- 30% and - 25% respectively, t-test p = 0.98), per-capita expenditure (- 37% and - 34%, p = 0.20) and food budget share (- 27% and - 7%, p = 0.65), but not income share (- 6% and - 32%, p = 0.71). The large expenditure increases in bottled water appeared to be greater in low-income than high-income households for purchasing prevalence (355 and 172%, p = 0.32) and food budget share (665 and 468%, p = 0.09), but greater in high-income households for per-capita expenditure (121 and 373%, p < 0.01) and income share (83 and 397%, p = 0.50).

CONCLUSIONS

The sweetened-beverage tax was associated with reduced soft drink purchasing and increased bottled water expenditure. Low-income households appeared to have slightly greater declines in soft drink expenditure.

Impact of sugar-sweetened beverage taxes on price, import and sale volumes in an island: interrupted time series analysis

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the impact of changes in import tariffs on sweetened beverages.

DESIGN

Interrupted time series analysis was used to examine sweetened beverage tariff increases of 40-60 % in 2008 and to 75 % in 2012, and an approximately 11 % decrease in 2014 when an excise tax replaced the tariff. Post-tax trends were compared with a counterfactual modelled on the pre-tax trend for: quarterly price of an indicator beverage, monthly beverage import volumes (both 2001-2017) and quarterly sales volumes (2012-2017). In a controlled analysis, taxed beverage imports were compared with a sugary snacks control.

SETTING

Cook Islands.

PARTICIPANTS

NA.

RESULTS

In the first year, after the 2008 tariff increase the price of the selected indicator soft drink increased by 7·3 % (95 % CI 6·3 %, 8·3 %) but after the 2012 tariff increase it decreased by 13·9 % (95 % CI -14·9 %, -12·8 %). At the same time, the import volumes of taxed beverages decreased by 13·2 % (95 % CI -38·1 %, 17·8 %) and 2·9 % (95 % CI -41·6 %, 72·5 %), respectively, and decreased by 24·8 % (95 % CI -36·9, -9·8) and 10·2 % (95 % CI -37·1, 37·5) in the controlled analysis. After the 2014 tax decrease, the price of the indicator soft drink decreased by 23·6 % (95 % CI -26·0 %, -21·1 %), sweetened beverage imports increased by 4·5 % (95 % CI -39·5 %, 156·0 %) and sales of full-sugar soft drinks increased by 31 % (95 % CI -21 %, 243 %).

CONCLUSIONS

The increased import tariffs on sweetened beverages appeared to be effective for reducing import volumes, but this was partly reversed by the reduced tax/tariff in 2014.

Evaluation of Changes in Beverage Prices and Volume Sold Following the Implementation and Repeal of a Sweetened Beverage Tax in Cook County, Illinois

IMPORTANCE

Health taxes are policy tools used to reduce harmful consumption of products and raise tax revenue, and they may also be associated with signaling (ie, informational and educational) factors that enhance their impact.

OBJECTIVES

To examine changes in prices and volume sold of sweetened beverages following the implementation and repeal of the Cook County, Illinois, Sweetened Beverage Tax (SBT) compared with the comparison site of St Louis County and city, Missouri, which did not impose a tax.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This study used interrupted time series analyses to assess changes in price and volume sold of taxed (based on beverage type and sweetener status) and untaxed beverages in Cook County compared with St Louis following the implementation of the SBT on August 2, 2017, and its repeal effective December 1, 2017. Statistical analysis was performed from January to June 2020.

EXPOSURES

Implementation and repeal of the Cook County SBT.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Changes in taxed and untaxed beverage prices and volume sold. Nielsen food store scanner data were obtained for weekly volume and dollar amount sold of nonalcoholic beverage universal product codes (UPCs) for each site in supermarkets and mass merchandise, grocery, drug, convenience, and dollar stores.

RESULTS

The analytic samples included 16 510 UPCs for volume and 2141 UPCs (balanced sample) for prices for 122 pretax weeks, 16 tax weeks, and 35 postrepeal weeks. Compared with St Louis, posttax implementation in Cook County resulted in a level increase in taxed beverage prices of 1.13 cents per fluid ounce (95% CI, 1.01 to 1.25 cents per fluid ounce), representing a slight overshifting, followed by a posttax repeal level decrease of -1.19 cents per fluid ounce (95% CI, -1.33 to -1.04 cents per fluid ounce), with no resulting change pretax to posttax repeal. Volume sold of taxed beverages in Cook County compared with St Louis exhibited a posttax implementation level decrease of 25.7% (β = -0.297; 95% CI, -0.415 to -0.179) and a posttax repeal level increase of 30.5% (β = 0.266, 95% CI, 0.124 to 0.408), with no net change in volume sold from pretax to 8 months after repeal.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

This study using interrupted time series analysis found no net change in volume sold of taxed beverages following the implementation and repeal of the Cook County SBT, suggesting the tax had no signaling association. Repeals of such taxes may fully reverse their associations with reduced demand and harms associated with sweetened beverage intake.

Anticipatory changes in British household purchases of soft drinks associated with the announcement of the Soft Drinks Industry Levy: A controlled interrupted time series analysis

BACKGROUND

Sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) consumption is positively associated with obesity, type 2 diabetes, and cardiovascular disease. The World Health Organization recommends that member states implement effective taxes on SSBs to reduce consumption. The United Kingdom Soft Drinks Industry Levy (SDIL) is a two-tiered tax, announced in March 2016 and implemented in April 2018. Drinks with ≥8 g of sugar per 100 ml (higher levy tier) are taxed at £0.24 per litre, drinks with ≥5 to <8 g of sugar per 100 ml (lower levy tier) are taxed at £0.18 per litre, and drinks with <5 g sugar per 100 ml (no levy) are not taxed. Milk-based drinks, pure fruit juices, drinks sold as powder, and drinks with >1.2% alcohol by volume are exempt. We aimed to determine if the announcement of the SDIL was associated with anticipatory changes in purchases of soft drinks prior to implementation of the SDIL in April 2018. We explored differences in the volume of and amount of sugar in household purchases of drinks in each levy tier at 2 years post announcement.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We used controlled interrupted time series to compare observed changes associated with the announcement of the SDIL to the counterfactual scenario of no announcement. We used data from Kantar Worldpanel, a commercial household purchasing panel with approximately 30,000 British members that includes linked nutritional data on purchases. We conducted separate analyses for drinks liable for the SDIL in the higher, lower, and no-levy tiers controlling with household purchase volumes of toiletries. At 2 years post announcement, there was no difference in volume of or sugar from purchases of higher-levy-tier drinks compared to the counterfactual of no announcement. In contrast, a reversal of the existing upward trend in volume (ml) of and amount of sugar (g) in purchases of lower-levy-tier drinks was seen. These changes led to a -96.1 ml (95% confidence interval [CI] -144.2 to -48.0) reduction in volume and -6.4 g (95% CI -9.8 to -3.1) reduction in sugar purchased in these drinks per household per week. There was a reversal of the existing downward trend in the amount of sugar in household purchases of the no-levy drinks but no change in volume purchased. At 2 years post announcement, these changes led to a 6.1 g (95% CI 3.9-8.2) increase in sugar purchased in these drinks per household per week. There was no evidence that volume of or amount of sugar in purchases of all drinks combined was different from the counterfactual. This is an observational study, and changes other than the SDIL may have been responsible for the results reported. Purchases consumed outside of the home were not accounted for.

CONCLUSIONS

The announcement of the UK SDIL was associated with reductions in volume and sugar purchased in lower-levy-tier drinks before implementation. These were offset by increases in sugar purchased from no-levy drinks. These findings may reflect reformulation of drinks from the lower levy to no-levy tier with removal of some but not all sugar, alongside changes in consumer attitudes and beliefs.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ISRCTN Registry ISRCTN18042742.

Sweetened beverage taxes and changes in beverage price, imports and manufacturing: interrupted time series analysis in a middle-income country

Background

The Pacific Island nation of Tonga (a middle-income country) introduced a sweetened beverage tax of T$0.50/L in 2013, with this increasing further in 2016 (to T$1.00/L), and in 2017 (T$1.50/L; US$0.02/oz). Given the potential importance of such types of fiscal intervention for preventing chronic disease, we aimed to evaluate the impact of these tax changes in Tonga.

Methods

Interrupted time series analysis was used to examine monthly import volumes and quarterly price and manufacturing 1 year after each tax change, compared with a counterfactual based on existing trends. Autocorrelation was adjusted for when present, and adjustments were made for changes in GDP per capita, visitor numbers, season and T$/US$ exchange rate.

Results

In the year after the 2013, 2016 and 2017 tax increases, the price of an indicator soft drink increased by 16.8% (95%CI: 6.3 to 29.6), 3.7% (− 0.6 to 8.3) and 17.6% (6.0 to 32.0) respectively. Imports of sweetened beverages decreased with changes of − 10.4% (− 23.6 to 9.0), − 30.3% (− 38.8 to − 20.5) and − 62.5% (− 73.1 to − 43.4) respectively. Juice imports changed by − 54.2% (− 93.2 to − 1.1), and sachet drinks by − 15.5% (− 67.8 to 88.3) after the 2017 tax increase. Tonga water bottling (T$) increased in value by 143% (69 to 334) after the 2016 tax increase and soft drink manufacturing increased by 20% (2 to 46, albeit 5% market share).

Conclusions

Consistent with international evaluations of sugar-sweetened beverage taxes, the taxes in Tonga were associated with increased prices, decreased taxed beverages imports, and increased locally bottled water.

Self-perception of dietary quality and adherence to food groups dietary recommendations among Mexican adults

BACKGROUND

Mexicans' adherence to food group's dietary recommendations is low and an inaccurate self-perception of dietary quality might perpetuate this low adherence. Our aim was to compare the intake and the adherence to the dietary recommendations for several food groups, subgroups, and to an overall Mexican Diet Quality Index (MxDQI), among those that perceived their diet as healthy vs. those that did not.

METHODS

We analyzed data from 989 subjects 20-59 y old from the nationally representative Mexican National Health and Nutrition Survey 2016. Dietary intake was collected with one 24-h recall and a repeated recall in 82 subjects. Self-perception of dietary quality was evaluated with the following question "Do you consider that your diet is healthy? (yes/no)". We used the National Cancer Institute method to estimate the usual intake. We compared the mean intake adjusted by sociodemographic variables and the percentage of adherence according to the self-perception of dietary quality among the whole sample and in sociodemographic subpopulations.

RESULTS

Sixty percent perceived their diet as healthy, and their adherence to recommendations was low [20% for fruits and vegetables, < 8% for legumes, seafood and SSBs, and ~ 50% for processed meats and high in saturated fat and/or added sugar (HSFAS) products]. The mean number of recommendations they met was 2.8 (out of 7) vs. 2.6 among the rest of the population (p > 0.05), and the MxDQI score was 40 vs. 37 (out of 100 points). The only food groups and subgroups with a statistically significant difference between those that perceived their diet as healthy vs. unhealthy were fruits [38 g/d (95% CI 3, 73)], fruit juices [27 g/d (95% CI 2, 52)], industrialized SSBs [- 35 kcal/d (- 70, - 1)] and salty snacks [- 40 kcal/d (- 79, - 1)]. Other differences were small or inconsistent across subgroups of the population.

CONCLUSIONS

Those that perceived their diet as healthy only had a slightly healthier diet than the rest of the population, moreover, their adherence to recommendations was very low. Hence, it is necessary to improve their nutrition knowledge.

Nonalcoholic Beverages as Sources of Nutrients in the Average Polish Diet

The aim of the study was to analyze the sources of energy, carbohydrates, 10 minerals, and 9 vitamins from nonalcoholic beverages in the average Polish diet. For the analysis, we used data from the 2016 Household Budget Survey conducted on the representative sample of the Polish population (36,886 households, n = 99,230). According to the source of data, we included four subgroups in analyzed food category: fruit juices, vegetable juices and mixed, mineral and spring waters, and other nonalcoholic beverages. We used the cluster analysis to assess the impact of sociodemographic and economic characteristics of the households on the structure of supplying energy and nutrients from each subgroup of the nonalcoholic beverages. Our analyses have shown that nonalcoholic beverages are primarily important in providing several nutrients: vitamin C (15.9% of the total vitamin C supply), vitamin B6 (8.9% of vitamin B supply), folates (8.5% of folate supply), carbohydrates (6.8% of carbohydrate supply), calcium (5.9% of calcium supply), and magnesium (5.5% of magnesium supply). The analysis of the consumption structure of this category of food showed that the subgroup of other nonalcoholic beverages brings more than three-fourth of carbohydrates (77%), vitamin B6 and folates (76% each), and 43% of vitamin C supplied by nonalcoholic beverages. More than half (51%) of vitamin C provided by nonalcoholic beverages comes from fruit juices and the remaining 6% comes from other juices (vegetable and mixed). In the case of minerals, mineral and spring waters consumption is important as it accounts for 65% of the calcium supply and 55% of the magnesium in nonalcoholic beverages category. The share of individual subgroups of beverages in the supply of ingredients in the diet is significantly differentiated by four socioeconomic characteristics of households: family life phase, age, socioeconomic type of household, and number of people in the household. This is particularly evident in the case of other nonalcoholic beverages, that the share of this subgroup in the energy and carbohydrates supply in the households of young people, employees (both blue-collar and white-collar workers), and families with children increases to 10%. Our results show that in order to reduce the intake of free sugars and increase the intake of deficient minerals, which is crucial in preventing noncommunicable diseases (NCDs), it is necessary to encourage consumers to replace sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) with water and eat fruits instead of drinking juice.

Impact of the announcement and implementation of the UK Soft Drinks Industry Levy on sugar content, price, product size and number of available soft drinks in the UK, 2015-19: A controlled interrupted time series analysis

BACKGROUND

Dietary sugar, especially in liquid form, increases risk of dental caries, adiposity, and type 2 diabetes. The United Kingdom Soft Drinks Industry Levy (SDIL) was announced in March 2016 and implemented in April 2018 and charges manufacturers and importers at £0.24 per litre for drinks with over 8 g sugar per 100 mL (high levy category), £0.18 per litre for drinks with 5 to 8 g sugar per 100 mL (low levy category), and no charge for drinks with less than 5 g sugar per 100 mL (no levy category). Fruit juices and milk-based drinks are exempt. We measured the impact of the SDIL on price, product size, number of soft drinks on the marketplace, and the proportion of drinks over the lower levy threshold of 5 g sugar per 100 mL.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We analysed data on a total of 209,637 observations of soft drinks over 85 time points between September 2015 and February 2019, collected from the websites of the leading supermarkets in the UK. The data set was structured as a repeat cross-sectional study. We used controlled interrupted time series to assess the impact of the SDIL on changes in level and slope for the 4 outcome variables. Equivalent models were run for potentially levy-eligible drink categories ('intervention' drinks) and levy-exempt fruit juices and milk-based drinks ('control' drinks). Observed results were compared with counterfactual scenarios based on extrapolation of pre-SDIL trends. We found that in February 2019, the proportion of intervention drinks over the lower levy sugar threshold had fallen by 33.8 percentage points (95% CI: 33.3-34.4, p < 0.001). The price of intervention drinks in the high levy category had risen by £0.075 (£0.037-0.115, p < 0.001) per litre-a 31% pass through rate-whilst prices of intervention drinks in the low levy category and no levy category had fallen and risen by smaller amounts, respectively. Whilst the product size of branded high levy and low levy drinks barely changed after implementation of the SDIL (-7 mL [-23 to 11 mL] and 16 mL [6-27ml], respectively), there were large changes to product size of own-brand drinks with an increase of 172 mL (133-214 mL) for high levy drinks and a decrease of 141 mL (111-170 mL) for low levy drinks. The number of available drinks that were in the high levy category when the SDIL was announced was reduced by 3 (-6 to 12) by the implementation of the SDIL. Equivalent models for control drinks provided little evidence of impact of the SDIL. These results are not sales weighted, so do not give an account of how sugar consumption from drinks may have changed over the time period.

CONCLUSIONS

The results suggest that the SDIL incentivised many manufacturers to reduce sugar in soft drinks. Some of the cost of the levy to manufacturers and importers was passed on to consumers as higher prices but not always on targeted drinks. These changes could reduce population exposure to liquid sugars and associated health risks.

Impact of an excise tax on the consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages in young people living in poorer neighbourhoods of Catalonia, Spain: a difference in differences study

Background

Sugar-sweetened beverage consumption is contributing to the obesity epidemic. On 28 March 2017, Catalonia enacted a law levying an excise tax on sugar-sweetened beverages for public health reasons. The purpose of this study is to assess the impact of the tax on the consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages in Catalonia (Spain).

Methods

Before-and-after study to assess changes in the prevalence of consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages among 1929 persons aged 12 to 40 years residing in low-income neighbourhoods of Barcelona (intervention) and Madrid (control). Beverage consumption frequency was ascertained via a validated questionnaire administered during the month prior to the tax’s introduction (May 2017) and again at 1 year after it had come into force. The effect of the tax was obtained using Poisson regression models with robust variance weighted using propensity scores.

Results

While the prevalence of regular consumers of taxed beverages fell by 39% in Barcelona as compared to Madrid, the prevalence of consumers of untaxed beverages remained stable. The main reason cited by more than two-thirds of those surveyed for reducing their consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages was the increase in price, followed by a heightened awareness of their health effects.

Conclusions

The introduction of the Catalonian excise tax on sugar-sweetened beverages was followed by a reduction in the prevalence of regular consumers of taxed beverages.

Political and public acceptability of a sugar-sweetened beverages tax: a mixed-method systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Taxation of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs), as a component of a comprehensive strategy, has emerged as an apparent effective intervention to counteract the rising prevalence of overweight and obesity. Insight into the political and public acceptability may help adoption and implementation in countries with governments that are considering an SSBs tax. Hence, we aimed to conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis to synthesize the existing qualitative and quantitative literature on political and public acceptability of an SSBs tax.

METHODS

Four electronic databases (PubMed, Embase, Scopus, Web of Science) were searched until November 2018. The methodological quality of the included studies was assessed using the Mixed Methods Appraisal Tool. Qualitative studies were analyzed using a thematic synthesis. Quantitative studies were analyzed using a random-effects meta-analysis for the pooling of proportions.

RESULTS

Thirty-seven articles reporting on forty studies were eligible for inclusion. Five themes derived from the thematic synthesis: (i) beliefs about effectiveness and cost-effectiveness, (ii) appropriateness, (iii) economic and socioeconomic benefit, (iv) policy adoption and implementation, and (v) public mistrust of the industry, government and public health experts. Results of the meta-analysis indicated that of the public 42% (95% CI = 0.38-0.47) supports an SSBs tax, 39% (0.29-0.50) supports an SSBs tax as a strategy to reduce obesity, and 66% (0.60-0.72) supports an SSBs tax if revenue is used for health initiatives.

CONCLUSIONS

Beliefs about effectiveness and cost-effectiveness, appropriateness, economic and socioeconomic benefit, policy adoption and implementation, and public mistrust of the industry, government and public health experts have important implications for the political and public acceptability of an SSBs tax. We provide recommendations to increase acceptability and enhance successful adoption and implementation of an SSBs tax: (i) address inconsistencies between identified beliefs and scientific literature, (ii) use raised revenue for health initiatives, (iii) communicate transparently about the true purpose of the tax, and (iv) generate political priority for solutions to the challenges to implementation.

Impact of sugar-sweetened beverage taxes on purchases and dietary intake: Systematic review and meta-analysis

The aim was to conduct a systematic review of real-world sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) tax evaluations and examine the overall impact on beverage purchases and dietary intake by meta-analysis. Medline, EconLit, Google Scholar, and Scopus databases were searched up to June 2018. SSB tax evaluations from any formal jurisdiction from cities to national governments were eligible if there was a comparison between pre-post tax (n = 11) or taxed and untaxed jurisdiction(s) (n = 6). The consumption outcome comprised sales, purchasing, and intake (reported by volume, energy, or frequency). Taxed and untaxed beverage consumption outcomes were examined separately by meta-analysis with adjustment for the size of each tax. The study was registered at PROSPERO (CRD42018100620). The equivalent of a 10% SSB tax was associated with an average decline in beverage purchases and dietary intake of 10.0% (95% CI: -5.0% to -14.7%, n = 17 studies, 6 jurisdictions) with considerable heterogeneity between results (I2  = 97%).The equivalent of a 10% SSB tax was also associated with a nonsignificant 1.9% increase in total untaxed beverage consumption (eg, water) (95% CI: -2.1% to 6.1%, n = 6 studies, 4 jurisdictions). Based on real-world evaluations, SSB taxes introduced in jurisdictions around the world appear to have been effective in reducing SSB purchases and dietary intake.

Trends in sugary drinks in Canada, 2004 to 2015: a comparison of market sales and dietary intake data

OBJECTIVE

The current study aimed to examine the correspondence between sales data and dietary recall data for sugary drinks in Canada.

DESIGN

Repeat cross-sectional analysis of sales data for sugary drinks sold in Canada from 2004 to 2015 from two sources: GlobalData (GD) and Euromonitor (EM). Sugary drinks included ten beverage categories containing free sugars. Analyses examined sales volumes over time, with adjustment for population growth. National intake estimates were drawn from the 2004 and 2015 Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS) Nutrition.

SETTING

Canada.

PARTICIPANTS

Not applicable.

RESULTS

In 2015, daily per capita sugary drinks consumption was estimated as 356 ml (GD) and 443 ml (EM) from sales data sources, and as 277 ml from dietary recall data. Both sales data sources and dietary recall data indicated that per capita sugary drinks consumption decreased from 2004 to 2015, although the magnitude of this change differed: -23 % (GD), -17 % (EM) and -32 % (CCHS Nutrition). Market sales data showed similar trends among categories of sugary drinks, with decreases in sales of traditional beverage categories (e.g. carbonated soft drinks) and increases in novel categories (e.g. sugar-sweetened coffee).

CONCLUSIONS

All data sources indicate a declining trend in sugary drinks consumption between 2004 and 2015, but with considerable differences in magnitude. Consumption estimates from sales data were substantially higher than estimates from dietary recall data, likely due to under-reporting of beverage intake through dietary recall and the inability of sales data to account for beverages sold but not consumed. Despite the observed decline, sugary drinks sales volumes remain high in Canada.

Investing in non-communicable disease risk factor control among adolescents worldwide: a modelling study

INTRODUCTION

Exposure to non-communicable disease (NCD) risk factors is increasing among adolescents in most countries due to demographic, economic and epidemiological forces. We sought to analyse the potential health impact and costs of implementing NCD risk reduction interventions among adolescents worldwide.

METHODS

We identified six interventions targeted at adolescent tobacco smoking, heavy episodic drinking and obesity and supported by effectiveness and cost-effectiveness evidence. Based on a population-level cohort of adolescents in 70 representative countries, we assessed the global mortality consequences of fully implementing these interventions over 2020-2070 using the potential impact fraction approach. We calculated the economic benefits of reduced mortality and estimated the required financial costs, discounting both at 3% annually. We also conducted best-case and worst-case scenario analyses.

RESULTS

Full implementation of these interventions worldwide could avert nearly 10% of premature deaths among this cohort, translating to about US$400 billion in cumulative economic benefits. Cumulatively, the required costs would be about US$85 billion, suggesting that every US$1 of public money invested would generate US$5 in increased human capital. Tobacco taxes generally conferred the highest economic returns; however, an in-depth analysis of three countries illustrated the potential for different priorities, such as alcohol control, to emerge.

CONCLUSION

From a life course perspective, implementation of a package of interventions to reduce NCD risk among adolescents worldwide would substantially reduce premature mortality at reasonable costs. Our analysis illustrates the importance of integrating NCD prevention policies into the emerging global agenda for adolescent health and well-being.