Mapping the evidence of novel plant-based foods: a systematic review of nutritional, health, and environmental impacts in high-income countries

CONTEXT

Shifting from current dietary patterns to diets rich in plant-based (PB) foods and lower in animal-based foods (ABFs) is generally regarded as a suitable strategy to improve nutritional health and reduce environmental impacts. Despite the recent growth in supply of and demand for novel plant-based foods (NPBFs), a comprehensive overview is lacking.

OBJECTIVES

This review provides a synthesis of available evidence, highlights challenges, and informs public health and environmental strategies for purposeful political decision-making by systematically searching, analyzing, and summarizing the available literature.

DATA SOURCES

Five peer-reviewed databases and grey literature sources were rigorously searched for publications.

DATA EXTRACTION

Study characteristics meeting the inclusion criteria regarding NPBF nutrient composition and health and environmental outcomes in high-income countries were extracted.

DATA ANALYSIS

Fifty-seven peer-reviewed and 36 grey literature sources were identified; these were published in 2016-2022. NPBFs typically have substantially lower environmental impacts than ABFs, but the nutritional contents are complex and vary considerably across brands, product type, and main primary ingredient. In the limited evidence on the health impacts, shifts from ABFs to PB meats were associated with positive health outcomes. However, results were mixed for PB drinks, with links to micronutrient deficiencies.

CONCLUSION

If carefully selected, certain NPBFs have the potential to be healthier and nutrient-rich alternatives to ABFs and typically have smaller environmental footprints. More disaggregated categorization of various types of NPBFs would be a helpful step in guiding consumers and key stakeholders to make informed decisions. To enable informed policymaking on the inclusion of NPBFs in dietary transitions as part of a wider net-zero and health strategy, future priorities should include nutritional food standards, labelling, and subdivisions or categorizations of NPBFs, as well as short- and long-term health studies evaluating dietary shifts from ABFs to NPBFs and standardized environmental impact assessments, ideally from independent funders.

An umbrella review of health co-benefits from actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions

BACKGROUND

There have been many modelled studies of potential health co-benefits from actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, but so far there have been no large-scale attempts to compare the magnitude of health and climate effects across sectors, countries, and study designs.

METHODS

As part of the Pathfinder Initiative project an umbrella review of studies was done, and 26 previous reviews were identified with 57 primary studies included. Studies included in the review were required to have quantified changes in greenhouse gas emissions and health effects (or risk factors) from defined actions to reduce climate effects. Study data were extracted and harmonised by standardising impact measures per 100 000 of the national population (or urban population for city-level actions), averaging effects over a 1-year period and aggregating actions into their respective sectors by use of a predefined framework.

FINDINGS

From 200 mitigation actions, the majority were in the agriculture, forestry, and land use sector (103 actions [52%]), followed by the transport sector (43 actions [22%]). The largest effects on greenhouse gas emissions were seen from actions in the energy sector, and these actions also had substantial health co-benefits in lower middle-income countries, although benefits were smaller in high-income settings. The greatest health benefits were seen from actions to change diets and introduce clean cookstoves. The major pathways to health were through reduced air pollution, healthier diets, and increased physical activity from switching to active travel modes. Effect sizes tended to be larger from national modelling studies and smaller from localised or implemented actions.

INTERPRETATION

The potential co-benefits to health from actions to reduce climate change are large, but most evidence still comes from modelling studies and from high-income and middle-income countries. There are also major context-dependent differences in the magnitude of effects found, so actions need to be tailored to the local context and careful attention needs to be paid to potential trade-offs and spillover effects.

FUNDING

The Wellcome Trust and the Oak Foundation.

Barriers to Adopting a Plant-Based Diet in High-Income Countries: A Systematic Review

Adopting a plant-based diet (PBD) has been shown to reduce the risk of developing certain diseases and is linked to environmental benefits. This review synthesises the evidence on the barriers adults aged 18 to 65 living in high-income countries (HIC) may experience when adopting a PBD. A systematic literature review was conducted using four search databases: Medline, Embase, Global Health, and Web of Science. Barriers were mapped to behaviour change strategies using the COM-B model. Ten studies were included in the final review, including 1740 participants. Five were qualitative, four were cross-sectional, and one was a pre- and-post-intervention study. In total, 40 barriers were identified and synthesised into 11 themes: financial, lack of knowledge, emotional, health, convenience, social, enjoyment of meat, environmental, accessibility, personal ability, and media. Of the 40 barriers, nutritional intake/requirements (categorised into the "health" theme) had the most evidence. This barrier encompassed concerns around being able to meet nutritional needs if an individual were to adopt a PBD. Habits (in the "personal ability" theme), which included established eating habits and habitual behaviours relating to animal-source foods, had the second most evidence alongside the barrier of not knowing what to eat as part of a PBD (in the "lack of knowledge" theme). Education interventions and communication/marketing policies were the behaviour change mechanisms mapped onto these barriers. Future interventions should focus on informing individuals about what to consume as part of a nutritionally balanced PBD and facilitating habitual dietary change.

Filling in the Gaps. Making Sense of Living with Temporomandibular Disorders: A Reflexive Thematic Analysis

INTRODUCTION

Persistent, painful temporomandibular disorders (TMDs) are challenging to manage and usually require the active engagement of patients. To achieve this, it is necessary to understand the complex and multifactorial nature of persistent pain. Many dental professionals have little education about persistent pain and may prefer to offer structural management and advice. This research aims to explore how people understand their persistent TMD and how this understanding has been influenced by their treatment providers.

METHODS

Twenty-one people were recruited to represent a diversity of experience with persistent TMD. Interviews followed a semistructured topic guide. Themes were constructed through reflexive thematic analysis to represent how people made sense of their symptoms and the messages that they had picked up through their treatment journey.

RESULTS

Participants described examples of conflicting opinions and inconsistent management recommendations. They rarely recalled collaborative discussions about the nature and complexity of their symptoms and different options for treatment. This experience is represented by a single theme, "a medical merry-go-round." Subthemes of "a medical journey to nowhere-participants' frustrated attempts to find medical management that will end their pain" and "is it me?-participants' questioning their role in persisting pain" kept participants on the merry-go-round, while symptom resolution and participants' emerging development of a holistic understanding of their TMD pain provided exit points. Understanding pain holistically tended to be helpful and typically occurred despite rather than because of the advice given in routine treatment settings.

CONCLUSION

Participants in this study had not typically found their pain management within dental and medical settings to have helped them to construct meaning and understand their experiences of painful TMD. However, understanding symptoms holistically was experienced as beneficial. This study suggests that improved communication and signposting within services for persistent TMD may be beneficial to patients with TMD pain.

KNOWLEDGE TRANSFER STATEMENT

Results of this study confirm that being offered a series of anatomically based, singular-cause explanations for persisting pain symptoms had been experienced as unhelpful by the participants who had sought help for their TMD. Participants highlighted the importance of accurate and collaborative communication and of dental professionals explicitly adopting and communicating a biopsychosocial understanding of pain to their patients who have TMD. Results highlight that some people can struggle to manage persisting pain with minimal support. Signposting patients to appropriate services and resources may help them to understand more about the nature of persistent pain and methods of managing it.

Dietary patterns in North and South India: a comparison with EAT-Lancet dietary recommendations

BACKGROUND

Environmentally sustainable diets are represented in the EAT-Lancet recommendations developed by the Lancet Commission on Planetary Health in 2019. Very few studies have compared Indian diets with the EAT-Lancet recommendations. The present study performed such a comparison using primary dietary consumption data from adults in north and south India.

METHODS

Data from 8762 adults (52.4 ± 11.7 years) residing in Sonipat and Vizag India were collected on sociodemographic characteristics, wealth index (household assets) and dietary intake (food frequency questionnaire: nine food groups). The quantity consumed and energy from each food group was compared with the EAT-Lancet recommendations. We investigated the likelihood of deficit or excess in consumption compared to the EAT-Lancet recommendations by different sociodemographic factors.

RESULTS

Half of the participants were women and half resided in rural areas. Vegetables and fruits were consumed in lower quantity, whereas dairy and added fats were consumed in higher quantity than recommended by the EAT-Lancet recommendations. For whole grains, female gender and poorest wealth index were the factors associated with deficit or no consumption, whereas, for vegetables and fruits, it was poorest wealth index and residence in rural areas (p < 0.05, all). Rural residence and poorest wealth index were associated with excess consumption of dairy and added fats (p < 0.05, all).

CONCLUSIONS

The diets of the study participants were mainly plant-based, and high in dairy but lacking in nutrient-rich foods such as vegetables and fruits. Appropriate policy actions for making healthy sustainable diets and micronutrient-rich foods available and affordable to all with a particular focus on the poor and rural populations are warranted.

Long-Term Outcomes of De-Intensified Chemoradiotherapy for Human Papillomavirus-Associated Oropharyngeal Squamous Cell Carcinoma

PURPOSE/OBJECTIVE(S)

To report long-term oncologic outcomes among patients with human papillomavirus (HPV)-associated oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) treated with definitive de-intensified chemoradiotherapy.

MATERIALS/METHODS

Major criteria for de-intensification were (1) AJCC 7th edition T0-T3, N0-N2c, M0 (AJCC 8th edition T0-T3, N0-N2, M0), (2) pathologically confirmed p16 positive, and (3) no or minimal/remote smoking history (non-mutated p53 if ≥30 pack-years). Treatment was 60 Gy intensity-modulated radiotherapy with first-choice concurrent cisplatin 30 mg/m2 once per week (alternative regimens permissible for cisplatin ineligible patients). Patients with T0-T2 N0-1 (AJCC 7th edition) were recommended 60 Gy radiation alone. Systemic therapy received included: cisplatin 30 mg/m2 (n = 122), cetuximab (n = 15), cisplatin 40 mg/m2 (n = 12), carboplatin/paclitaxel (n = 2), and radiation alone (n = 25). Kaplan Meier estimates for overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS), locoregional control (LRC), and freedom from distant metastasis (FFDM) were calculated. Cox regression models were used for comparisons among subgroups.

RESULTS

A total 176 patients received de-intensified treatment (n = 153 prospective protocol, n = 23 off-protocol). Median follow-up was 52.6 months (range 5.3 - 102.0, 90.8% with minimum 2-year follow-up); 56.8% (n = 100) were never smokers and 43.2% (n = 76) former smokers; former smokers had median 9 pack-years smoking history (range 0.25 - 50) with 46% ≥10 pack-years. Outcomes were as follows: 2-year OS 99.4% and 5-year OS 91.8%; 2-year PFS 94.1% and 5-year PFS 84.3%; 2-year LRC 98.3% and 5-year LRC 95.8%; 2-year FFDM 95.8% and 5-year FFDM 93.2%. Median time to progression events were 21.1 months (range, 7.2 - 54.1) with 37.5% (6 of 16) of recurrences occurring after 24 months. Six total locoregional events occurred (five recurrences and one site of persistent disease), within the 60 Gy planning target volume. Twenty-three patients with T0-T2 N0-1 disease received radiation alone with 2-year PFS 92.9% (5-year 83.8%) and 2-year LRC 100% (5-year 95.2%). Outcomes for former smokers with ≥10 pack-years were comparable to patients with less or no smoking history (2-year PFS 94.1% vs 94.1%; 5-year PFS 90.6% vs 82.7%; HR 0.58, p = 0.38). Early results suggest similar oncologic outcomes among those treated off-protocol (median follow-up 25.6 months) with 1 of 23 patients experiencing locoregional recurrence.

CONCLUSION

Dose de-intensification of 60 Gy radiotherapy with weekly cisplatin results in favorable long-term tumor control in patients with HPV-associated OPSCC. De-intensified 60 Gy alone may be efficacious in carefully selected patients with T0-T2 N0-1 (AJCC 7th edition) disease. Inclusion of biologically favorable patients with more extensive former smoking history in de-intensification clinical trials may be warranted.

Socio-economic and food system drivers of nutrition and health transitions in The Gambia from 1990 to 2017

In common with many nations undergoing a nutrition transition, micronutrient deficiencies, undernutrition and overnutrition coexist in The Gambia. Addressing these challenges simultaneously would require transformational changes in the country's food system. However, the evidence base that would enable informed decision-making in the Gambian food system has been scant, despite several sources of routinely-collected data being available. This descriptive study brings together data from four open-access global databases on food supply, political, economic, and demographic variables, and nutrition and health between 1990 and 2017 to study potential leverage points for improvement in the food system. It compares trends in food supply and nutritional outcomes in The Gambia against regional and global averages, and identifies potential drivers taken from a food systems framework. The data show that, over the past three decades, total energy supply has increased, and obesity is rising quickly, but iron deficiency persists in a proportion of the population. Overall diet composition is poor, with lower availability of fruit and vegetables and higher supply of sugar and oils compared to regional and global averages. Domestic production is low for most food groups and so a high dependence on imports from other countries bridges the gap in terms of energy supply. Measures of economic development, particularly GDP, were positively related with supply of cereals and animal source foods over time, but no such relationship was observed with fruit and vegetable supply. Food system policy to improve nutrition and health outcomes in The Gambia needs to focus on improving the diversity of food supply - especially fruit and vegetables - and maximizing national domestic production to reduce reliance on food imports. The use of open-source global datasets can be feasible in exploring food system characteristics and trends at the national level and could be applied in other contexts.

In-person versus virtual administration of the American College of Radiology gold standard cognitive battery in systemic lupus erythematosus: Are they interchangeable?

OBJECTIVE

During the COVID-19 pandemic, many research studies were adapted, including our longitudinal study examining cognitive impairment (CI) in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). Cognitive testing was switched from in-person to virtual. This analysis aimed to determine if the administration method (in-person vs. virtual) of the ACR-neuropsychological battery (ACR-NB) affected participant cognitive performance and classification.

METHODS

Data from our multi-visit, SLE CI study included demographic, clinical, and psychiatric characteristics, and the modified ACR-NB. Three analyses were undertaken for cognitive performance: (1) all visits, (2) non-CI group visits only and (3) intra-individual comparisons. A retrospective preferences questionnaire was given to participants who completed the ACR-NB both in-person and virtually.

RESULTS

We analysed 328 SLE participants who had 801 visits (696 in-person and 105 virtual). Demographic, clinical, and psychiatric characteristics were comparable except for ethnicity, anxiety and disease-related damage. Across all three comparisons, six tests were consistently statistically significantly different. CI classification changed in 11/71 (15%) participants. 45% of participants preferred the virtual administration method and 33% preferred in-person.

CONCLUSIONS

Of the 19 tests in the ACR-NB, we identified one or more problems with eight (42%) tests when moving from in-person to virtual administration. As the use of virtual cognitive testing will likely increase, these issues need to be addressed - potentially by validating a virtual version of the ACR-NB. Until then, caution must be taken when directly comparing virtual to in-person test results. If future studies use a mixed administration approach, this should be accounted for during analysis.

Snacking Behavior and Association with Metabolic Risk Factors in Adults from North and South India

BACKGROUND

Snacks are increasingly contributing to daily diets around the world. Studies from high-income countries have demonstrated the link between snack consumption and metabolic risk factors, but there are very few studies from low- and middle-income countries.

OBJECTIVES

The objective of this study was to assess snack behavior and its associations with metabolic risk factors in Indian adults.

METHODS

Adults from the UDAY study (October 2018-February 2019, n = 8762) from rural and urban Sonipat (North) and Vizag (South) India were studied for snack consumption (food frequency questionnaire), demographic factors, including age, sex, etc. and metabolic risk factors, including BMI, waist circumference, fat percentage, plasma glucose, and blood pressure. We compared snack consumption by categories of sociodemographic factors (Mann-Whitney U test, Kruskal-Wallis test) and studied the likelihood for metabolic risk (logistic regression analysis).

RESULTS

Half of the study participants were women and resided in rural locations. Savory snacks were the most preferred; 50% of the participants consumed them 3-5 times/wk. Participants preferred to purchase out-of-home prepared snacks and eat them at home (86.6%) while watching television (69.4%) or with family/friends (49.3%). The reasons for snacking were hunger, craving, liking, and availability. Snack consumption was higher in Vizag (56.6%) than in Sonipat (43.4%), among women (55.5%) than men (44.5%), and the wealthiest; it was similar in rural-urban locations. Frequent consumers of snacks had 2 times higher likelihood for having obesity (OR: 2.22; 95% CI: 1.51, 3.27) central obesity (OR: 2.35; 95% CI: 1.60, 3.45), and higher fat percentage (OR: 1.92; 95% CI: 1.31, 2.82) and higher fasting glucose levels (r=0.12 (0.07-0.18) than consumers who consumed snacks rarely (all P ≤ 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Snack (savory and sweet) consumption was high among adults from sexes in both urban and rural locations of north and south India. This was associated with higher risk of obesity. There is a need to improve the food environment by promoting policies for ensuring healthier food options to reduce snacking and associated metabolic risk.

Impact on mortality of pathways to net zero greenhouse gas emissions in England and Wales: a multisectoral modelling study

BACKGROUND

The UK is legally committed to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions to net zero by 2050. We aimed to understand the potential impact on population health of two pathways for achieving this target through the integrated effects of six actions in four sectors.

METHODS

In this multisectoral modelling study we assessed the impact on population health in England and Wales of six policy actions relating to electricity generation, transport, home energy, active travel, and diets relative to a baseline scenario in which climate actions, exposures, and behaviours were held constant at 2020 levels under two scenarios: the UK Climate Change Committee's Balanced Pathway of technological and behavioural measures; and its Widespread Engagement Pathway, which assumes more substantial changes to consumer behaviours. We quantified the impacts of each policy action on mortality using a life table comprising all exposures, behaviours, and health outcomes in a single model.

FINDINGS

Both scenarios are predicted to result in substantial reductions in mortality by 2050. The Widespread Engagement Pathway achieves a slightly greater reduction in outdoor fine particulate matter air pollution of 3·2 μg/m³ (33%) and, under assumptions of appropriate ventilation, a greater improvement in indoor air pollution (a decrease in indoor-generated fine particulate matter from 9·4 μg/m³ to 4·6 μg/m³) and winter temperatures (increasing from 17·8°C to 18·1°C), as well as appreciably greater changes in levels of active travel (27% increase in metabolic equivalent hours per week of walking and cycling) by 2050. Additionally, the greater reduction in red meat consumption (50% compared with 35% under the Balanced Pathway) by 2050 results in greater consumption of fruits (17-18 g/day), vegetables (22-23 g/day), and legumes (5-7 g/day). Combined actions under the Balanced Pathway result in more than 2 million cumulative life-years gained over 2021-50; the estimated gain under the Widespread Engagement Pathway is greater, corresponding to nearly 2·5 million life-years gained by 2050 and 13·7 million life-years gained by 2100.

INTERPRETATION

Reaching net zero greenhouse gas emissions is likely to lead to substantial benefits for public health in England and Wales, with the cumulative net benefits being correspondingly greater with a pathway that entails faster and more ambitious changes, especially in physical activity and diets.

FUNDING

National Institute for Health Research and the Wellcome Trust.

Growing health: global linkages between patterns of food supply, sustainability, and vulnerability to climate change

Global food systems are developing rapidly, and have resulted in a large burden of disease and a high proportion of environmental resource use. We combined global data sources on food supply and trade, environmental footprints, burdens of disease, and vulnerability to climate change to explore patterns from 1990 to 2017. Four distinct patterns of food supply (animal sources and sugar, vegetables and nuts, starchy roots and fruits, and seafood and oils) were matched to health and environmental risks. The animal sources and sugar pattern was found to have the greatest environmental footprint and to be associated with a greater burden of chronic disease than any other pattern, although it was also associated with lower undernutrition. This pattern is globally predominant, but has begun to decrease in higher income countries. Countries where this pattern is predominant are generally among the least susceptible to climate change, whereas more susceptible countries tend to have more sustainable patterns of food supply. More countries that are susceptible to climate change are increasingly exporting a larger proportion than before of their cereals, fruit, and vegetables globally, which will lead to increased risks in global food security. To increase resilience to future shocks, dietary change towards more sustainable patterns should accelerate in high-income countries, and the food systems of the most susceptible countries should be protected.

Climate change adaptation options to inform planning of agriculture and food systems in The Gambia: A systematic approach for stocktaking

Identifying and assessing adaptation options are key pre-requisite steps to adaptation prioritization and effective adaptation planning. In this paper, we presented a systematic approach for adaptation stocktaking, combining a systematic mapping and an outcome-oriented and evidence-based assessment, illustrated using the case of The Gambia. This study systematically mapped 24 adaptation options that can potentially inform adaptation planning in The Gambia agriculture and food systems and assessed how the identified options contribute to the pillars of Climate-Smart Agriculture. Because of the paucity of evidence sources from The Gambia, we collated evidence from both The Gambia and the West Africa region. We found that many of the documented options, such as climate-resilient crop varieties, crop diversification, climate information use, and weather indexed-based insurance have the potential to increase agricultural productivity and income while building resilience to climate change. While several options, such as soil and water conservation practices can positively contribute to climate change mitigation, others such as manure and inorganic fertilizers can have no or negative impacts on mitigation. Agroforestry practices and System of Rice Intensification have the potential to make a triple impact. The paucity of evidence from The Gambia and the highly contextual and differential impacts of the identified adaptation options underscore the importance of careful consideration of barriers and enablers when developing and deploying policy and interventions to sustainably increase productivity and income while building resilience to climate risks and reducing GHGs emissions. Stakeholder engagement and participatory research action are crucial in selecting and testing the priority adaptation options which can maximize their potentials in specific agricultural and food system contexts, such as in The Gambia. Because of the heterogeneity in household vulnerability and socioecological circumstances, targeting options to the right contexts will also be crucial to avoid maladaptation. We highlighted key knowledge gaps in the understanding of the effectiveness and feasibility of the identified adaptation options in The Gambia. Beyond The Gambia, the approach can also be useful for and replicated in other least developed countries in the West African region, that are currently developing their National Adaptation Plan.

Processed foods purchase profiles in urban India in 2013 and 2016: a cluster and multivariate analysis

OBJECTIVES

Sales of ultraprocessed foods (UPFs) and beverages are rising in low-income and middle-income countries. Such foods are often linked with weight gain, obesity, type 2 diabetes and hypertension-diseases that are on the rise in India. This paper analysed patterns in purchases of processed and UPF by urban Indian households.

SETTING

Panel data from Kantar -Worldpanel Division, India for 2013 and 2016.

PARTICIPANTS

58 878 urban Indian households.

METHODS

We used K-mean partition clustering and multivariate regression to analyse patterns in processed food (PF) and UPF purchase for urban India.

RESULTS

Three-quarters of urban Indian households purchased over ten PF groups. Mean per person annual PF purchase was 150 kg. UPF purchase was low at 6.4 kg in 2016 but had grown by 6% since 2013. Cluster analysis identified three patterns of consumption, characterised by low (54% of the households in 2016), medium (36%) and high (10%) PF purchase quantities. High cluster households purchased over three times as much PFs and UPF as the low cluster households. Notably, salt purchases were persistently high across clusters in both years (>3.3 kg), while sweet snack and ready-to-eat food purchases grew consistently in all clusters between 2013 and 2016. A positive and significant association was found between household purchases of UPF and their socioeconomic status as well as ownership of durables, such as refrigerator, colour television and washing machine (all p<0.001). Spatial characteristics including size of town (p<0.05) in which the household is located were also positively associated with the purchase of UPF.

CONCLUSION

Results suggest the need for tailored regional and city level interventions to curb the low but growing purchase of UPF. New data on obesity and rise of non-communicable diseases, the results are concerning given the links between lifestyle changes and the speed of urbanisation in Indian cities.

Adherence to EAT-Lancet dietary recommendations for health and sustainability in the Gambia

Facilitating dietary change is pivotal to improving population health, increasing food system resilience, and minimizing adverse impacts on the environment, but assessment of the current 'status-quo' and identification of bottlenecks for improvement has been lacking to date. We assessed deviation of the Gambian diet from the EAT-Lancet guidelines for healthy and sustainable diets and identified leverage points to improve nutritional and planetary health. We analysed the 2015/16 Gambian Integrated Household Survey dataset comprising food consumption data from 12 713 households. Consumption of different food groups was compared against the EAT-Lancet reference diet targets to assess deviation from the guidelines. We computed a 'sustainable and healthy diet index (SHDI)' based on deviation of different food groups from the EAT-Lancet recommendations and modelled the socio-economic and geographic determinants of households that achieved higher scores on this index, using multivariable mixed effects regression. The average Gambian diet had very low adherence to EAT-Lancet recommendations. The diet was dominated by refined grains and added sugars which exceeded the recommendations. SHDI scores for nutritionally important food groups such as fruits, vegetables, nuts, dairy, poultry, and beef and lamb were low. Household characteristics associated with higher SHDI scores included: being a female-headed household, having a relatively small household size, having a schooled head of the household, having a high wealth index, and residing in an urban settlement. Furthermore, diets reported in the dry season and households with high crop production diversity showed increased adherence to the targets. While average Gambian diets include lower amounts of food groups with harmful environmental footprint, they are also inadequate in healthy food groups and are high in sugar. There are opportunities to improve diets without increasing their environmental footprint by focusing on the substitution of refined grains by wholegrains, reducing sugar and increasing fruit and vegetables consumption.

Quantifying the effectiveness and health co-benefits of climate change mitigation actions across sectors: a protocol for an umbrella review

BACKGROUND

Effective and rapid actions are required to achieve global goals for climate change mitigation, and there is an opportunity to ensure that the actions taken are also positive for human health. However, little is known about the relative magnitude of the health co-benefits that can be achieved from mitigation actions, so robust and comprehensive syntheses of the evidence on the nature and effects of relevant actions are required. This paper presents a protocol for an interdisciplinary and cross-sectoral umbrella review of systematic reviews, synthesising modelled and empirical evidence on such actions.

METHODS

Nine bibliographic databases will be searched, capturing literature across a wide range of disciplines and sectors. Unique records retrieved by the searches will be screened by two independent reviewers. The quality of all the included systematic reviews will be assessed using A MeaSurement Tool to Assess Systematic Reviews (AMSTAR) 2 critical appraisal tool. Data will be extracted on methodological and thematic characteristics of the reviews, nature of the actions, and their effects on greenhouse gas emission reduction, health, and its determinants, as well as any other reported effects and interactions across different actions.

RESULTS

Narrative and quantitative synthesis methods will be used to create a typology of relevant actions, map pathways to their impacts on health, compare the magnitude of health and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction impacts by selected characteristics of the actions and the nature of the evidence, as well as to identify gaps in evidence syntheses.

CONCLUSION

This review will identify the most effective actions for global climate change mitigation and health based on the best available scientific evidence.   This protocol has been registered in PROSPERO, Reg No.: CRD42021239292.

Search for Subsolar-Mass Binaries in the First Half of Advanced LIGO's and Advanced Virgo's Third Observing Run

We report on a search for compact binary coalescences where at least one binary component has a mass between 0.2  M_{⊙} and 1.0  M_{⊙} in Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo data collected between 1 April 2019 1500 UTC and 1 October 2019 1500 UTC. We extend our previous analyses in two main ways: we include data from the Virgo detector and we allow for more unequal mass systems, with mass ratio q≥0.1. We do not report any gravitational-wave candidates. The most significant trigger has a false alarm rate of 0.14  yr^{-1}. This implies an upper limit on the merger rate of subsolar binaries in the range [220-24200]  Gpc^{-3} yr^{-1}, depending on the chirp mass of the binary. We use this upper limit to derive astrophysical constraints on two phenomenological models that could produce subsolar-mass compact objects. One is an isotropic distribution of equal-mass primordial black holes. Using this model, we find that the fraction of dark matter in primordial black holes in the mass range 0.2  M_{⊙}<m_{PBH}<1.0  M_{⊙} is f_{PBH}≡Ω_{PBH}/Ω_{DM}≲6%. This improves existing constraints on primordial black hole abundance by a factor of ∼3. The other is a dissipative dark matter model, in which fermionic dark matter can collapse and form black holes. The upper limit on the fraction of dark matter black holes depends on the minimum mass of the black holes that can be formed: the most constraining result is obtained at M_{min}=1  M_{⊙}, where f_{DBH}≡Ω_{DBH}/Ω_{DM}≲0.003%. These are the first constraints placed on dissipative dark models by subsolar-mass analyses.

Nitrate and nitrite contamination in drinking water and cancer risk: A systematic review with meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Pollution of water sources, largely from wide-scale agricultural fertilizer use has resulted in nitrate and nitrite contamination of drinking water. The effects on human health of raised nitrate and nitrite levels in drinking water are currently unclear.

OBJECTIVES

We conducted a systematic review of peer-reviewed literature on the association of nitrate and nitrite in drinking water with human health with a specific focus on cancer.

METHODS

We searched eight databases from 1 January 1990 until 28 February 2021. Meta-analyses were conducted when studies had the same exposure metric and outcome.

RESULTS

Of 9835 studies identified in the literature search, we found 111 studies reporting health outcomes, 60 of which reported cancer outcomes (38 case-control studies; 12 cohort studies; 10 other study designs). Most studies were set in the USA (24), Europe (20) and Taiwan (14), with only 3 studies from low and middle-income countries. Nitrate exposure in water (59 studies) was more commonly investigated than nitrite exposure (4 studies). Colorectal (15 studies) and gastric (13 studies) cancers were the most reported. In meta-analyses (4 studies) we identified a positive association of nitrate exposure with gastric cancer, OR = 1.91 (95%CI = 1.09-3.33) per 10 mg/L increment in nitrate ion. We found no association of nitrate exposure with colorectal cancer (10 studies; OR = 1.02 [95%CI = 0.96-1.08]) or cancers at any other site.

CONCLUSIONS

We identified an association of nitrate in drinking water with gastric cancer but with no other cancer site. There is currently a paucity of robust studies from settings with high levels nitrate pollution in drinking water. Research into this area will be valuable to ascertain the true health burden of nitrate contamination of water and the need for public policies to protect human health.

Adherence of Gambian Diets to EAT-Lancet Diet Recommendations for Health and Sustainability

Objectives

We assessed deviation of the Gambian diet from the EAT-Lancet guidelines for healthy and sustainable diets and identified leverage points to improve nutritional and planetary health.

Methods

We performed secondary analyses using the recent Integrated Household Survey dataset comprising food consumption data from 12,713 households. Consumption of different food groups were compared against EAT-Lancet reference diet targets to assess deviation from the guidelines. We computed a “sustainable and healthy diet index” based on deviation of different food groups from the EAT-Lancet recommendations and modelled the socio-economic and geographic determinants of households that achieved higher scores on this index, using multivariable mixed effects regression.

Results

The average Gambian diet had very low adherence to EAT-Lancet recommendations. The diet was dominated by refined grains and added sugars consumption which exceed the recommendations. Consumption of important food groups such as fruits, vegetables, dairy, poultry, and beef and lamb were much lower than the EAT-Lancet targets. Family characteristics associated with higher healthy and sustainable diet index scores included: being a female headed household, having a relatively small household size, having a schooled head of the household, having a high wealth index, and residing in an urban settlement. Furthermore, seasonality and crop production diversity played an important role in the diet, with healthier and more sustainable diets reported in the dry season as compared to the rainy season, and increased adherence with high crop production diversity.

Conclusions

While the Gambian diet may be less healthy, it is low in components known to impact most on the environment such as beef, lamb, dairy, and pork. There are opportunities to improve on healthiness of diets by focussing on the substitution of refined grains by wholegrains and reducing added sugar consumption. Given the important role of poverty, education, and agricultural diversification in dietary quality, it would be important to consider these as an integral part of decision making around dietary sustainability in The Gambia.

Funding Sources

Wellcome Trust.

POS1222 FOLIC ACID AND METHOTREXATE USE AND THEIR ASSOCIATION WITH COVID-19 DIAGNOSIS AND MORTALITY: AN ANALYSIS FROM THE UK BIOBANK

Background

Folate metabolism is implicated in SARS-CoV-2 infectivity (Ref).

Objectives

To determine if methotrexate (an antifolate) or folic acid prescription were associated with a lowered and increased risk, respectively, for COVID-19 diagnosis or mortality in a large population-based cohort (UK Biobank).

Methods

Data from 380,380 UK Biobank participants with general practice prescription data were used. Criteria for COVID-19 diagnosis were 1) a positive SARS-CoV-2 test and / or 2) ICD-10 code for confirmed COVID-19 (U07.1) or probable COVID-19 (U07.2) in hospital records, or death records. This definition identified 26,003 individuals diagnosed with COVID-19 of whom 820 were known to have died from COVID-19. Logistic regression statistical models were adjusted for age group (4 categories), sex, ethnicity, Townsend deprivation index, BMI, smoking status, presence of rheumatoid arthritis, sickle cell disease, use of anticonvulsants, statins and iron supplements.

Results

Compared with people prescribed neither folic acid nor methotrexate, people prescribed folic acid supplementation had increased risk of diagnosis of COVID-19 (OR 1.51 [1.42; 1.61]). The prescription of methotrexate with or without folic acid was not associated with COVID-19 diagnosis (P≥0.18). Compared with people prescribed neither folic acid nor methotrexate, people prescribed folic acid supplementation had an increased risk of death after a diagnosis of COVID-19 (OR 2.64 [2.15; 3.24]) in a fully adjusted model. The prescription of methotrexate in combination with folic acid was not associated with an increased risk for death after a diagnosis of COVID-19 (1.07 [0.57; 1.98]). (Table 1)

Table 1.

COVID-19 diagnosis and associated death in people prescribed methotrexate and / or folic acid in the UKBB, compared to people not prescribed methotrexate or folic acid. Model 1 adjusted for age group, sex, ethnicity, Townsend deprivation index, BMI, smoking status Model 2 is model 1 plus adjustment by the presence of rheumatoid arthritis, sickle cell disease, use of statins, anticonvulsants and iron supplementation.

UnadjustedModel 1Model 2OR[95% CI]POR[95% CI]POR[95% CI]PNeither Folic acid nor Methotrexate1.0-1.0-1.0-COVID-19 diagnosisFolic acid only1.58[1.49; 1.68]<0.0011.60[1.50; 1.70]<0.0011.51[1.42; 1.61]<0.001Methotrexate and Folic acid1.09[0.96; 1.23]0.181.15[1.02; 1.30]0.0211.09[0.96; 1.23]0.18COVID-19 associated deathFolic acid only5.14 [4.23; 6.24]<0.0012.91 [2.38; 3.55]<0.0012.64[2.15; 3.24]<0.001Methotrexate and folic acid1.47 [0.81; 2.67]0.211.26 [0.70; 2.30]0.441.07 [0.57; 1.98]0.84

Conclusion

We report increased risk for COVID-19 diagnosis and COVID-19-related death for people prescribed folic acid supplementation. The prescription and use of supplemental folic acid may confer risk of infection with the SARS-CoV-2 virus as well as the risk of death resulting from COVID-19. Our results also suggest that methotrexate might attenuate an increased risk for COVID-19 diagnosis and death conferred by folic acid.

References

[1]Zhang Y, Guo R, Kim SH, et al. SARS-CoV-2 hijacks folate and one-carbon metabolism for viral replication. Nature Communications 2021;12(1):1676. doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-21903-z

Disclosure of Interests

Ruth Topless: None declared, Ralph Green: None declared, Sarah Morgan: None declared, Philip Robinson Consultant of: Abbvie, Atom Biosciences, Eli Lilly, Gilead, Janssen, Novartis, UCB, Roche, Pfizer, Grant/research support from: Janssen, Novartis, Pfizer and UCB Pharma, Tony Merriman: None declared, Angelo Gaffo Consultant of: SOBI, Selecta

Changes in Climate Vulnerability and Projected Water Stress of The Gambia's Food Supply Between 1988 and 2018: Trading With Trade-Offs

Background

The coexistence of under- and overnutrition is of increasing public health concern in The Gambia. Fruits, vegetables and pulses are essential to healthy and sustainable diets, preventing micronutrient deficiencies and non-communicable diseases, while cereals significantly contribute to energy intake. However, environmental changes are predicted to intensify, reducing future yields of these crops if agricultural productivity and resilience are not improved. The Gambia is highly climate-vulnerable and import-dependent, but the extent of its reliance on other climate-vulnerable countries for its supply of nutritionally important crops is currently unknown.

Methods

We used United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization data, with novel origin-tracing algorithms applied, to analyse The Gambia's supply of cereals, fruits, vegetables and pulses between 1988 and 2018. The climate vulnerability of countries was assessed using Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative (ND-GAIN) index scores, and projected water stress (2040) assessed using World Resources Institute (WRI) scores. Multilevel generalized linear mixed-effects models were used to identify changes in the overall climate vulnerability and projected water stress of supply.

Results

Between 1988 and 2018, The Gambia's supply of cereals, fruits, vegetables and pulses diversified, with the proportion domestically produced falling (Cereals: 61.4%-27.7%; Fruits: 93.0%-55.7%; Vegetables: 24.6%-16.3%; Pulses: 100.0%-76.0%). The weighted-average ND-GAIN scores improved (indicating less climate vulnerability) for supply of all crops except cereals, but the weighted-average WRI score for supply deteriorated (indicating increased projected water stress) for all crops except vegetables. When just considering imports, weighted-average ND-GAIN scores deteriorated for fruits and cereals while showing no significant change for other food groups, and the WRI score deteriorated for cereals only.

Conclusions

Despite some notable improvements in the environmental vulnerability of The Gambia's supply of nutritionally important crops (particularly vegetables), considerable, and in some cases increasing, proportions of their supply are produced in countries that are vulnerable to climate change and future water stress. This may have implications for the availability, affordability, and hence consumption of these crops in The Gambia, ultimately exacerbating existing nutritional challenges. Exploring the options to strengthen supply resilience-such as altering trade patterns, agricultural techniques and diets-should be prioritized.

A protocol for analysing the effects on health and greenhouse gas emissions of implemented climate change mitigation actions

Background: It is crucial to understand the benefits to human health from decarbonisation to galvanise action among decision makers. Most of our existing evidence comes from modelling studies and little is known about the extent to which the health co-benefits of climate change mitigation actions are realised upon implementation. We aim to analyse evidence from mitigation actions that have been implemented across a range of sectors and scales, to identify those that can improve and sustain health, while accelerating progress towards a zero-carbon economy.

Objectives: To understand the implementation process of actions and the role of key actors; explain the contextual elements influencing these actions; summarise what effects, both positive and negative, planned and unplanned they may have on emissions of greenhouse gases and health; and to summarise environmental, social, or economic co-benefits.

Data: We will review evidence collected through partnership with existing data holders and an open call for evidence. We will also conduct a hand search of reference lists from systematic reviews and websites of organisations relevant to climate change mitigation.

Screening: Screening will be done by two reviewers according to a pre-defined inclusion and exclusion criteria.

Analysis: We will identify gaps where implementation or evaluation of implementation of mitigation actions is lacking. We will synthesise the findings to describe how actions were implemented and how they achieved results in different contexts, identifying potential barriers and facilitators to their design, implementation, and uptake. We will also synthesise their effect on health outcomes and other co-benefits. Quantitative synthesis will depend on the heterogeneity of outcomes and metrics.

Conclusions: Findings will be used to identify lessons that can be learned from successful and unsuccessful mitigation actions, to make inferences on replicability, scalability, and transferability and will contribute to the development of frameworks that can be used by policy makers.

A protocol for analysing the effects on health and greenhouse gas emissions of implemented climate change mitigation actions

Background: It is crucial to understand the benefits to human health from decarbonisation to galvanise action among decision makers. Most of our existing evidence comes from modelling studies and little is known about the extent to which the health co-benefits of climate change mitigation actions are realised upon implementation. We aim to analyse evidence from mitigation actions that have been implemented across a range of sectors and scales, to identify those that can improve and sustain health, while accelerating progress towards a zero-carbon economy. Objectives: To understand the implementation process of actions and the role of key actors; explain the contextual elements influencing these actions; summarise what effects, both positive and negative, planned and unplanned they may have on emissions of greenhouse gases and health; and to summarise environmental, social, or economic co-benefits. Data: We will review evidence collected through partnership with existing data holders and an open call for evidence. We will also conduct a hand search of reference lists from systematic reviews and websites of organisations relevant to climate change mitigation. Screening: Screening will be done by two reviewers according to a pre-defined inclusion and exclusion criteria. Analysis: We will identify gaps where implementation or evaluation of implementation of mitigation actions is lacking. We will synthesise the findings to describe how actions were implemented and how they achieved results in different contexts, identifying potential barriers and facilitators to their design, implementation, and uptake. We will also synthesise their effect on health outcomes and other co-benefits. Quantitative synthesis will depend on the heterogeneity of outcomes and metrics. Conclusions: Findings will be used to identify lessons that can be learned from successful and unsuccessful mitigation actions, to make inferences on replicability, scalability, and transferability and will contribute to the development of frameworks that can be used by policy makers.

Osimertinib and anti-HER3 combination therapy engages immune dependent tumor toxicity via STING activation in trans

Over the past decade, immunotherapy delivered novel treatments for many cancer types. However, lung cancer still leads cancer mortality, and non-small-cell lung carcinoma patients with mutant EGFR cannot benefit from checkpoint inhibitors due to toxicity, relying only on palliative chemotherapy and the third-generation tyrosine kinase inhibitor (TKI) osimertinib. This new drug extends lifespan by 9-months vs. second-generation TKIs, but unfortunately, cancers relapse due to resistance mechanisms and the lack of antitumor immune responses. Here we explored the combination of osimertinib with anti-HER3 monoclonal antibodies and observed that the immune system contributed to eliminate tumor cells in mice and co-culture experiments using bone marrow-derived macrophages and human PBMCs. Osimertinib led to apoptosis of tumors but simultaneously, it triggered inositol-requiring-enzyme (IRE1α)-dependent HER3 upregulation, increased macrophage infiltration, and activated cGAS in cancer cells to produce cGAMP (detected by a lentivirally transduced STING activity biosensor), transactivating STING in macrophages. We sought to target osimertinib-induced HER3 upregulation with monoclonal antibodies, which engaged Fc receptor-dependent tumor elimination by macrophages, and STING agonists enhanced macrophage-mediated tumor elimination further. Thus, by engaging a tumor non-autonomous mechanism involving cGAS-STING and innate immunity, the combination of osimertinib and anti-HER3 antibodies could improve the limited therapeutic and stratification options for advanced stage lung cancer patients with mutant EGFR.

Quantifying the effectiveness and health co-benefits of climate change mitigation actions across sectors: a protocol for an umbrella review

Background: Effective and rapid actions are required to achieve global goals for climate change mitigation, and there is an opportunity to ensure that the actions taken are also positive for human health. However, little is known about the relative magnitude of the health co-benefits that can be achieved from mitigation actions, so robust and comprehensive syntheses of the evidence on the nature and effects of relevant actions are required. This paper presents a protocol for an interdisciplinary and cross-sectoral umbrella review of systematic reviews, synthesising modelled and empirical evidence on such actions. Methods: Nine bibliographic databases will be searched, capturing literature across a wide range of disciplines and sectors. Unique records retrieved by the searches will be screened by two independent reviewers. The quality of all the included systematic reviews will be assessed using A MeaSurement Tool to Assess Systematic Reviews (AMSTAR) 2 critical appraisal tool. Data will be extracted on methodological and thematic characteristics of the reviews, nature of the actions, and their effects on greenhouse gas emission reduction, health, and its determinants, as well as any other reported effects and interactions across different actions. Results: Narrative and quantitative synthesis methods will be used to create a typology of relevant actions, map pathways to their impacts on health, compare the magnitude of health and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction impacts by selected characteristics of the actions and the nature of the evidence, as well as to identify gaps in evidence syntheses. Conclusion: This review will identify the most effective actions for global climate change mitigation and health based on the best available scientific evidence.   This protocol has been registered in PROSPERO, Reg No.: CRD42021239292.

The role of plant-based alternative foods in sustainable and healthy food systems: Consumption trends in the UK

A global transformation towards sustainable food systems is crucial for delivering on climate change mitigation targets worldwide. In high- and middle-income settings, plant-based meat and dairy alternatives present potential substitutes for animal sourced foods, and a pathway to transition to more sustainable diets. We examined plant-based alternative foods (PBAF) consumption trends in the UK by analysing repeated cross-sectional food consumption data from the National Diet and Nutrition Survey 2008-2019. Dietary data for 15,655 individuals aged 1.5 years and over were analysed to assess aggregate change in intake of PBAF and six other food groups that play a role in transformative dietary change. Characteristics associated with consumption of PBAF were explored using logistic regression, and consumption patterns in high and low meat consumers were explored by examining intake of potential animal product substitute food groups. The proportion of individuals reporting consumption of any PBAFs increased from 6.7% in 2008-2011, to 13.1% in 2017-2019 (p < 0.01). Compared to 2008-2011 PBAF consumption rose by 115% in 2017-2019 (p < 0.01). Females were 46% more likely than males to report consumption of PBAF (p < 0.01). Millennials (age 24-39 years) were the most likely generation to report PBAF consumption (p < 0.01 compared to generation Z (age 11-23 years) and traditionalists (age 75+ years)), as were individuals of the highest income tertile (p < 0.01). Among "low meat consumers", PBAF consumption was on average higher than "high meat consumers" (18.6 g versus 4.8 g PBAF per day, p < 0.01). Our results support the hypothesis of a pivotal role of PBAF in the transition towards sustainable food systems in the UK, by demonstrating they are becoming increasingly popular among UK consumers. This highlights the urgent need to assess in detail the environmental and health impacts of large scale and population-wide consumption of PBAF in comparison to their animal-based equivalents.

Towards the Three Dimensions of Sustainability for International Research Team Collaboration: Learnings from the Sustainable and Healthy Food Systems Research Programme

This paper highlights the potential for learning and virtual collaboration in international research teams to contribute towards sustainability goals. Previous research confirmed the environmental benefits of carbon savings from international virtual conferences. This paper adds the social and economic dimensions by using a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods to measure the constraints and benefits for personal development, economic costs, efficiency and team learning of holding international virtual conferences (VCs). Using the Sustainable and Healthy Food Systems (SHEFS) research programme as a case study, we analysed VC participant survey data to identify strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats of VCs. We estimated 'saved' GHG emissions, costs, and time, of using VCs as an alternative for a planned in-person meeting in Chennai, India. Hosting VCs reduced North-South, gender, and researcher inclusivity concerns, financial and travelling time costs, and substantially reduced emissions. For one international meeting with 107 participants, changing to a virtual format reduced the per capita GHG emissions to half the annual global average, and avoided 60% of travel costs. The benefits of VCs outweighed weaknesses. The main strengths were inclusivity and access, with 20% more early/mid-career researchers attending. This study identified opportunities for international research partnerships to mitigate their carbon footprint (environmental benefit) and enhance inclusivity of early/mid-career, women and Global South participants (social benefit), whilst continuing to deliver effective collaborative research meetings (economic benefit). In doing so, we present a holistic view of sustainability opportunities for virtual collaboration.

EPOS 4 Patients

EPOS2020 is the 4th and most recent version of the European Position Paper on Rhinosinusitis and Nasal Polyps which was first published in 2005. It aims to provide the most up to date scientifically robust information on the topic published in the literature which has been critically analysed by an international group of clinicians drawn from all disciplines dealing with these problems together with patients. The guidelines offer evidence-based recommendations and care pathways for acute and chronic rhinosinusitis in both adults and children. Management of these diseases from the patients' perspective is an important part of EPOS2020. Not only is this included in the main document but, for the first time, we have produced a separate supplement dedicated to and in collaboration with patients, EPOS4Patients, which aims to provide information in an accessible format, to answer frequently asked questions about these diseases and their treatment options as well as including useful patient resources and websites. It has never been more important for patients to be actively involved in their care. Being well informed helps you to make the best decisions together with your doctor.

Dimensions of fruit and vegetable access in the retail food environment; a systematic review

 

The consumption of fruit and vegetable (F&V) is important for human health to protect against non-communicable disease and micronutrient deficiency. Increasing consumption of F&V may also benefit planetary health if these foods are substituted for foods with higher environmental footprints such as red meat or dairy. The retail food environment (RFE) is an influential junction between the food system and individual diets as it drives access to F&V through external (physical access) and personal (availability, affordability, acceptability) domains. We performed a systematic search of six literature databases (January 2021) for studies assessing access to F&V in the RFE and its association with F&V consumption in adults in high- and upper-middle income countries. 36 studies were identified and categorised by dimensions of food access - accessibility, affordability, acceptability, availability and accommodation. More than half of the studies (n = 20) were based in the USA. F&V accessibility was the most commonly reported dimension (n = 29); no study reported on accommodation. 6 studies were rated to be high quality. A positive association of increased availability of F&V options in the RFE with intake was identified in 9 of 15 studies. Associations in both acceptability and accessibility dimensions were inconsistent. No association was observed between F&V affordability and consumption although available data were limited. Many challenges exist to building a robust evidence base within food environment research including conceptual, definitional and methodological heterogeneity and measurement standardisation. Future food policies should consider multi-dimensional interventions to promote access to F&V in the RFE across all domains.

Key messages

First systematic review of dimensions of access in the retail food environment (RFE) and fruit and vegetable (F&V) intake suggesting importance of access to available healthy options for F&V intake. The retail food environment is complex but likely predictor of F&V consumption.

Pathways to "5-a-day": modeling the health impacts and environmental footprints of meeting the target for fruit and vegetable intake in the United Kingdom

BACKGROUND

Fruit and vegetable consumption in the United Kingdom is currently well below recommended levels, with a significant associated public health burden. The United Kingdom has committed to reducing its carbon emissions to net zero by 2050, and this transition will require shifts towards plant-based diets.

OBJECTIVE

The aim was to quantify the health effects, environmental footprints, and cost associated with 4 different pathways to meeting the United Kingdom's "5-a-day" recommendation for fruit and vegetable consumption.

METHODS

Dietary data based on 18,006 food diaries from 4528 individuals participating in the UK National Diet and Nutrition Survey (2012/13-2016/17) constituted the baseline diet. Linear programming was used to model the hypothetical adoption of the 5-a-day (400 g) recommendation, which was assessed according to 4 pathways differing in their prioritization of fruits versus vegetables and UK-produced versus imported varieties. Increases in fruit and vegetable consumption were substituted for consumption of sweet snacks and meat, respectively. Changes in life expectancy were assessed using the IOMLIFET life table model. Greenhouse gas emissions (GHGEs), blue water footprint (WF), and total diet cost were quantified for each 5-a-day diet.

RESULTS

Achieving the 5-a-day target in the United Kingdom could increase average life expectancy at birth by 7-8 mo and reduce diet-related GHGEs by 6.1 to 12.2 Mt carbon dioxide equivalents/y; blue WFs would change by -0.14 to +0.07 km3/y. Greater reductions in GHGEs were achieved by prioritizing increased vegetable consumption over fruit, whereas the greatest reduction in WF was obtained by prioritizing vegetable varieties produced in the United Kingdom. All consumption pathways increased diet cost (£0.34-£0.46/d).

CONCLUSIONS

Benefits to both population and environmental health could be expected from consumption pathways that meet the United Kingdom's 5-a-day target for fruit and vegetables. Our analysis identifies cross-sectoral trade-offs and opportunities for national policy to promote fruit and vegetable consumption in the United Kingdom.

Prognostic value of heart rate reserve in patients with suspected coronary artery disease undergoing stress myocardial perfusion imaging

Funding Acknowledgements

Type of funding sources: None.

Background. The prognostic value of stress myocardial perfusion single-photon emission computed tomography (MPS) has been widely demonstrated. Also, chronotropic incompetence, evaluated by heart rate reserve (HRR) is associated with increased risk of adverse events. Yet, the incremental prognostic value of HRR over stress MPS data has not been fully investigated.

Purpose. To assess the incremental prognostic value of HRR over stress MPS finding in patients with suspected coronary artery disease (CAD) undergoing exercise stress MPS.

Methods. The study population consisted of 866 consecutive patients with suspected CAD undergoing exercise stress-MPS at University of Naples Federico II, between May 2002 and January 2014 as part of their diagnostic program. The primary study endpoint was all-cause mortality. All patients were followed for at least 60 months. HRR was calculated as the difference between peak exercise and resting HR, divided by the difference of age-predicted maximal and resting HR and expressed as percent. The summed difference score (SDS) was considered an index of ischemic burden. Patients were considered to have mild ischemia with a SDS of 2 to 6, and moderate-severe ischemia with a SDS ≥6. During follow-up, the occurrence of all-cause of deaths was noted and considered as event. Follow-up was censored at 84 months.

Results. During follow-up, 61 deaths occurred, with a 7% cumulative event rate. Patients experiencing death were older (56.2 ± 10.7 years vs. 66.4 ± 8.6 years), with a higher prevalence of male gender (56% vs. 87 %, P &lt; 0.05) and diabetes mellitus (23% vs. 36%, P &lt; 0.05). At stress-MPS, patients with event had lower mean values of HRR (53.2 ± 21.3% vs. 61.5 ± 16.4%, P &lt; 0.0001) and higher prevalence of moderate-severe ischemia (24% vs. 8%, P &lt; 0.0001). The best trade-off between sensitivity and specificity for identifying chronotropic incompetence was a HRR &lt;67% with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.62. The event free survival was lower in patients with HRR &lt;67% compared to those with HRR ≥67% (log-rank 9.75, P &lt; 0.005). Accordingly, the annualized event rate was 0.006 in patients with HRR &lt;67% and 0.014 in those with HRR ≥67% (P &lt; 0.001). At Cox regression analysis, univariable predictors of all-cause mortality were age, male gender, diabetes mellitus, HRR and moderate-severe ischemia (all P &lt; 0.05). At multivariable analysis age, male gender, HRR and moderate-severe ischemia were independent predictors of all-cause mortality (all P &lt; 0.05). HRR improved the prognostic power of a model including clinical data and MPS findings for the prediction of all-cause mortality, increasing the global chi-square from 76.16 to 82.68 (P &lt; 0.005).

Conclusion. Chronotropic incompetence assessed by HRR evaluation, has independent and incremental prognostic value in predicting all cause of death in patients with suspected CAD undergoing exercise stress-MPS.

Potential health impact of increasing adoption of sustainable dietary practices in Sweden

BACKGROUND

An urgent transition to more sustainable diets is necessary for the improvement of human and planetary health. One way to achieve this is for sustainable practices to become mainstream. We estimated the potential health impact of wider adoption of dietary practices deemed by consumers, researchers and stakeholders in Sweden to be niche, sustainable and with the potential to be scaled up.

METHODS

A life table method was used to estimate the impact - changes in years of life lost (YLL) - over periods of 20 and 30 years in the Swedish population had the practices been adopted in 2010-11, when the last national adult dietary survey was conducted. The practices modelled were reducing red and processed meat (by 25, 50 and 100%), and assuming, for each stage, replacement by an equal weight of poultry/fish and vegetables +/- legumes; reducing milk intake (by 25, 50 and 100%); and reducing sugar-sweetened beverage intake (by 25, 50 and 100%). Using population data together with data on cause-specific mortality and relative risks for diet-disease outcomes, impacts were estimated for each scenario separately and in combination, for the outcomes ischaemic heart disease (IHD), ischaemic stroke, diabetes type 2 and colorectal cancer.

RESULTS

For a "moderate" combination of scenarios (changes at the 50% level), reductions of 513,200 YLL (lower-upper uncertainty estimate 59,400-797,900) could have been achieved over 20 years and 1,148,500 YLL (135,900-1,786,600) over 30 years. The majority (over 90%) of YLLs prevented were related to IHD, and the majority were in men. The singular practice that had the most impact was reducing the intake of red and processed meat and replacing it with a mixture of vegetables and legumes. Reducing milk intake resulted in an increase in YLL, but this was compensated for by other scenarios.

CONCLUSION

If these practices were more widely adopted, they would be expected to lead to improvements in public health in Sweden. Over the long term, this would translate to many premature deaths postponed or prevented from a number of chronic diseases, to the benefit of individuals, society, the climate and the economy.

External carotid artery pseudoaneurysm following upper respiratory infection masquerading as a pharyngeal abscess in an 8-month-old

Pseudoaneurysms are very rare with an incidence of less than 0.1% in the pediatric population. Approximately 30 cases of carotid artery aneurysms in children have been published in the literature, usually affecting children over one year of age. We present one of the youngest cases in the literature; the patient is an 8-month old female with a strep throat infection complicated by pseudoaneurysm development of the external carotid artery. Because of the rarity of these lesions, there is little known regarding the types of clinical presentation and management. They are commonly the result of direct arterial trauma; however, they can also occur secondary to infection, connective tissue disease or arteritis. We are presenting a case with a highly atypical presentation. When present, pseudoaneurysms harbor the potential risk of life-threatening hemorrhage and warrant immediate management. It is important to be aware of cases and the treatment modalities used to guide future diagnosis and planning.

Constraints on Cosmic Strings Using Data from the Third Advanced LIGO-Virgo Observing Run

We search for gravitational-wave signals produced by cosmic strings in the Advanced LIGO and Virgo full O3 dataset. Search results are presented for gravitational waves produced by cosmic string loop features such as cusps, kinks, and, for the first time, kink-kink collisions. A template-based search for short-duration transient signals does not yield a detection. We also use the stochastic gravitational-wave background energy density upper limits derived from the O3 data to constrain the cosmic string tension Gμ as a function of the number of kinks, or the number of cusps, for two cosmic string loop distribution models. Additionally, we develop and test a third model that interpolates between these two models. Our results improve upon the previous LIGO-Virgo constraints on Gμ by 1 to 2 orders of magnitude depending on the model that is tested. In particular, for the one-loop distribution model, we set the most competitive constraints to date: Gμ≲4×10^{-15}. In the case of cosmic strings formed at the end of inflation in the context of grand unified theories, these results challenge simple inflationary models.

Constraints on Cosmic Strings Using Data from the Third Advanced LIGO-Virgo Observing Run

We search for gravitational-wave signals produced by cosmic strings in the Advanced LIGO and Virgo full O3 dataset. Search results are presented for gravitational waves produced by cosmic string loop features such as cusps, kinks, and, for the first time, kink-kink collisions. A template-based search for short-duration transient signals does not yield a detection. We also use the stochastic gravitational-wave background energy density upper limits derived from the O3 data to constrain the cosmic string tension Gμ as a function of the number of kinks, or the number of cusps, for two cosmic string loop distribution models. Additionally, we develop and test a third model that interpolates between these two models. Our results improve upon the previous LIGO-Virgo constraints on Gμ by 1 to 2 orders of magnitude depending on the model that is tested. In particular, for the one-loop distribution model, we set the most competitive constraints to date: Gμ≲4×10^{-15}. In the case of cosmic strings formed at the end of inflation in the context of grand unified theories, these results challenge simple inflationary models.

Characteristics of Distinct Dietary Patterns in Rural Bangladesh: Nutrient Adequacy and Vulnerability to Shocks

Food security in Bangladesh has improved in recent years, but the country is now facing a double burden of malnutrition while also being highly vulnerable to climate change. Little is known about how this may affect food supply to different sectors of the population. To inform this, we used a national dietary survey of 800 rural households to define dietary patterns using latent class analysis. Nutrient adequacy of dietary patterns and their potential vulnerability to climate shocks (based on diversity of calorie sources) were assessed. We fitted mixed effects logistic regression models to identify factors associated with dietary patterns. Four dietary patterns were identified: rice and low diversity; wheat and high diversity; pulses and vegetables; meat and fish. The wheat and high diversity and meat and fish patterns tended to be consumed by households with higher levels of wealth and education, while the rice and low diversity pattern was consumed by households with lower levels of wealth and education. The pulses and vegetables pattern was consumed by households of intermediate socio-economic status. While energy intake was high, fat and protein intake were suboptimal for all patterns except for the wheat and high diversity pattern. All patterns had fruit and vegetable intake below the WHO recommendation. The wheat and high diversity pattern was least vulnerable to shocks, while the rice and low diversity pattern was the most vulnerable, relying mainly on single cereal staples. The diets showed "double vulnerability" where the nutrient inadequate patterns were also those most vulnerable to shocks.

532 CARING FOR AND CARING ABOUT OLDER PEOPLE LIVING WITH SEVERE FRAILTY DURING COVID-19

Introduction

An ongoing study collected survey and interview data from older people with frailty living in the community near end-of-life during the Covid-19 pandemic.

Methods

Unstructured interviews with older people with frailty living in the community (N = 10), which included accounts from unpaid carers (N = 5), were video and audio recorded between October–November 2021. Six of these older people have died since fieldwork completion. A face-to-face survey collected data from a further 10 older people. Participants ages ranged from 70–99, 11, men, and 9 women, living in owned, rented, or sheltered accommodation, with Clinical Frailty Scores of 6 (N = 8), 7 (N = 9), and 8 (N = 3).

Results

Topics raised in relation to the pandemic included loss of social contact and increased loneliness, concern about not physically getting out, and losing physical function. Older people struggled to gain access to health and social care for support and previously received services were withdrawn. Most participants did not have access to internet and relied heavily on families to facilitate virtual contact with health professionals. Families and friends were the main anchor in facilitating social and health care including chasing up medications, liaising with social care to ensure quality and consistency of care provided, and monitoring older people’s health. Where older people’s conditions worsened family provided intense support, though family carers described the strain and unsustainability of this provision. Older people and their families felt they had been forgotten.

Conclusions

These are insights from hard-to-reach population that are frequently invisible. Greater examination of the impact of using communication technologies in care provision on those with poor access to and capabilities with using these technologies is required. Unpaid carers need more information and resources to support the care they provide and to facilitate access to appropriate social and health care services for those they care for.

Changes in take-home aerated soft drink purchases in urban India after the implementation of Goods and Services Tax (GST): An interrupted time series analysis

OBJECTIVES

Taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB) are increasingly being implemented as public health interventions to limit the consumption of sugar and reduce associated health risks. In July 2017, India imposed a new tax rate on aerated (carbonated) drinks as part of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) reform. This study investigates the post-GST changes in the purchase of aerated drinks in urban India.

METHODS

An interrupted time series analysis was conducted on state-level monthly take-home purchases of aerated drinks in urban India from January 2013 to June 2018. We assessed changes in the year-on-year growth rate (i.e. percentage change) in aerated drink purchases with controls for contextual variables.

RESULTS

We found no evidence of a reduction in state-level monthly take-home aerated drink purchases in urban India following the implementation of GST. Further analysis showed that the year-on-year growth rate in aerated drink purchases increased slightly (0.1 percentage point per month, 95%CI = 0.018, 0.181) after the implementation of GST; however, this trend was temporary and decreased over time (0.008 percentage point per month, 95%CI = -0.015, -0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

In India, a country currently with low aerated drink consumption, the implementation of GST was not associated with a reduction in aerated drink purchase in urban settings. Due to the lack of accurate and sufficiently detailed price data, it is not possible to say whether this finding is driven by prices not changing sufficiently. Furthermore, the impact of GST reform on industry practice (reformulation, marketing) and individual behaviour choices (substitution) is unknown and warrants further investigation to understand how such taxes could be implemented to deliver public health benefits.

COVID-19 testing in outbreak-free care homes: what are the public health benefits?

BACKGROUND

COVID-19 care home outbreaks represent a significant proportion of COVID-19 morbidity and mortality in the UK. National testing initially focused on symptomatic care home residents, before extending to asymptomatic cohorts.

AIM

The aim was to describe the epidemiology and transmission of COVID-19 in outbreak free care homes.

METHODS

A two-point prevalence survey of COVID-19, in 34 Liverpool care homes, was performed in April and May 2020. Changes in prevalence were analysed. Associations between care home characteristics, reported infection, prevention and control interventions, and COVID-19 status were described and analysed.

FINDINGS

No resident developed COVID-19 symptoms during the study. There was no significant difference between: the number of care homes containing at least one test positive resident between the first (17.6%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 6.8-34.5) and second round (14.7%, 95% CI 5.0-31.1) of testing (p>0.99); and the number of residents testing positive between the first (2.1%, 95% CI 1.2-3.4) and second round (1.0%, 95% CI 0.5-2.1) of testing (P=0.11). Care homes providing nursing care (risk ratio (RR) 7.99, 95% CI 1.1-57.3) and employing agency staff (RR 8.4, 95% CI 1.2-60.8) were more likely to contain test positive residents. Closing residents shared space was not associated with residents testing positive (RR 2.63, 95% CI 0.4-18.5).

CONCLUSIONS

Asymptomatic COVID-19 care homes showed no evidence of disease transmission or development of outbreaks; suggesting that current infection prevention and control measures are effective in preventing transmission. Repeat testing at two to three weeks had limited or no public health benefits over regular daily monitoring of staff and residents for symptoms. These results should inform policies calling for regular testing of asymptomatic residents.

Climate change mitigation through dietary change: a systematic review of empirical and modelling studies on the environmental footprints and health effects of 'sustainable diets'

The adoption of healthy diets with low environmental impact has been widely promoted as an important climate change mitigation strategy. Typically, these diets are high in plant-sourced and low in animal-sourced and processed foods. Despite the fact that their environmental impacts vary, they are often referred to as 'sustainable diets'. Here we systematically review the available published evidence on the effect of 'sustainable diets' on environmental footprints and human health. Eight databases (OvidSP-Medline, OvidSP-Embase, EBSCO-GreenFILE, Web of Science Core Collection, Scopus, OvidSP-CAB-Abstracts, OvidSP-AGRIS, and OvidSP-Global Health) were searched to identify literature (published 1999-2019) reporting health effects and environmental footprints of 'sustainable diets'. Available evidence was mapped and pooled analysis was conducted by unique combinations of diet pattern, health and environmental outcome. Eighteen studies (412 measurements) met our inclusion criteria, distinguishing twelve non-mutually exclusive sustainable diet patterns, six environmental outcomes, and seven health outcomes. In 87% of measurements (n = 151) positive health outcomes were reported from 'sustainable diets' (average relative health improvement: 4.09% [95% CI -0.10-8.29]) when comparing 'sustainable diets' to current/baseline consumption patterns. Greenhouse gas emissions associated with 'sustainable diets' were on average 25.8%[95%CI -27.0 to -14.6] lower than current/baseline consumption patterns, with vegan diets reporting the largest reduction in GHG-emissions (-70.3% [95% CI: -90.2 to -50.4]), however, water use was frequently reported to be higher than current/baseline diets. Multiple benefits for both health and the environment were reported in the majority (n = 315[76%]) of measurements. We identified consistent evidence of both positive health effects and reduced environmental footprints accruing from 'sustainable diets'. The notable exception of increased water use associated with 'sustainable diets' identifies that co-benefits are not universal and some trade-offs are likely. When carefully designed, evidence-based, and adapted to contextual factors, dietary change could play a pivotal role in climate change mitigation, sustainable food systems, and future population health.