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Snyder J, Maglasang G. Dengue in Cebu City, Philippines: A Pilot Study of Predictive Models and Visualizations for Public Health. Am J Trop Med Hyg 2024; 110:179-187. [PMID: 38081048 DOI: 10.4269/ajtmh.23-0250] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/02/2023] [Accepted: 09/25/2023] [Indexed: 01/05/2024] Open
Abstract
Dengue is a global health issue, particularly in the tropical and subtropical regions of the world. Prevention is the most appropriate method to fight the spread of the virus. The objective of this research is to present a model, along with visualizations, that will enable health officials and community leaders to identify when and where potential dengue outbreaks are likely to occur. Armed with this information, local resources can be adequately deployed in an effort to use limited supplies effectively. A mathematical model that uses easily obtainable data, along with visualizations for the 80 barangays of Cebu City, Philippines, is presented. Visualizations are constructed appropriate for a generalist audience to comprehend and use for dengue mitigation. Results of this study include a model that uses readily available data to predict dengue outbreaks one month in advance and visualizations appropriate for decision-makers in public health. Additional items are identified that could enhance the explanatory power of the model, and future directions are discussed.
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Affiliation(s)
- Johnny Snyder
- Davis School of Business, Colorado Mesa University, Grand Junction, Colorado
| | - Gibson Maglasang
- Research Institute for Computational Mathematics and Physics, Cebu Normal University, Cebu City, Philippines
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Aryaprema VS, Steck MR, Peper ST, Xue RD, Qualls WA. A systematic review of published literature on mosquito control action thresholds across the world. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2023; 17:e0011173. [PMID: 36867651 PMCID: PMC10016652 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0011173] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/14/2022] [Revised: 03/15/2023] [Accepted: 02/14/2023] [Indexed: 03/04/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Despite the use of numerous methods of control measures, mosquito populations and mosquito-borne diseases are still increasing globally. Evidence-based action thresholds to initiate or intensify control activities have been identified as essential in reducing mosquito populations to required levels at the correct/optimal time. This systematic review was conducted to identify different mosquito control action thresholds existing across the world and associated surveillance and implementation characteristics. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS Searches for literature published from 2010 up to 2021 were performed using two search engines, Google Scholar and PubMed Central, according to PRISMA guidelines. A set of inclusion/exclusion criteria were identified and of the 1,485 initial selections, only 87 were included in the final review. Thirty inclusions reported originally generated thresholds. Thirteen inclusions were with statistical models that seemed intended to be continuously utilized to test the exceedance of thresholds in a specific region. There was another set of 44 inclusions that solely mentioned previously generated thresholds. The inclusions with "epidemiological thresholds" outnumbered those with "entomological thresholds". Most of the inclusions came from Asia and those thresholds were targeted toward Aedes and dengue control. Overall, mosquito counts (adult and larval) and climatic variables (temperature and rainfall) were the most used parameters in thresholds. The associated surveillance and implementation characteristics of the identified thresholds are discussed here. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE The review identified 87 publications with different mosquito control thresholds developed across the world and published during the last decade. Associated surveillance and implementation characteristics will help organize surveillance systems targeting the development and implementation of action thresholds, as well as direct awareness towards already existing thresholds for those with programs lacking available resources for comprehensive surveillance systems. The findings of the review highlight data gaps and areas of focus to fill in the action threshold compartment of the IVM toolbox.
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Affiliation(s)
- Vindhya S. Aryaprema
- Anastasia Mosquito Control District, St. Augustine, Florida, United States of America
| | - Madeline R. Steck
- Anastasia Mosquito Control District, St. Augustine, Florida, United States of America
| | - Steven T. Peper
- Anastasia Mosquito Control District, St. Augustine, Florida, United States of America
| | - Rui-de Xue
- Anastasia Mosquito Control District, St. Augustine, Florida, United States of America
| | - Whitney A. Qualls
- Anastasia Mosquito Control District, St. Augustine, Florida, United States of America
- * E-mail:
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Furlong M, Adamu A, Hickson RI, Horwood P, Golchin M, Hoskins A, Russell T. Estimating the Distribution of Japanese Encephalitis Vectors in Australia Using Ecological Niche Modelling. Trop Med Infect Dis 2022; 7:tropicalmed7120393. [PMID: 36548648 PMCID: PMC9782987 DOI: 10.3390/tropicalmed7120393] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/15/2022] [Revised: 11/12/2022] [Accepted: 11/15/2022] [Indexed: 11/25/2022] Open
Abstract
Recent Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) outbreaks in southeastern Australia have sparked interest into epidemiological factors surrounding the virus' novel emergence in this region. Here, the geographic distribution of mosquito species known to be competent JEV vectors in the country was estimated by combining known mosquito occurrences and ecological drivers of distribution to reveal insights into communities at highest risk of infectious disease transmission. Species distribution models predicted that Culex annulirostris and Culex sitiens presence was mostly likely along Australia's eastern and northern coastline, while Culex quinquefasciatus presence was estimated to be most likely near inland regions of southern Australia as well as coastal regions of Western Australia. While Culex annulirostris is considered the dominant JEV vector in Australia, our ecological niche models emphasise the need for further entomological surveillance and JEV research within Australia.
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Affiliation(s)
- Morgan Furlong
- Australian Institute of Tropical Health and Medicine, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD 4811, Australia
- College of Public Health, Medical and Veterinary Sciences, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD 4811, Australia
- Correspondence: (M.F.); (P.H.)
| | - Andrew Adamu
- Australian Institute of Tropical Health and Medicine, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD 4811, Australia
- College of Public Health, Medical and Veterinary Sciences, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD 4811, Australia
| | - Roslyn I. Hickson
- Australian Institute of Tropical Health and Medicine, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD 4811, Australia
- College of Public Health, Medical and Veterinary Sciences, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD 4811, Australia
- Commonwealth Scientific Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Townsville, QLD 4811, Australia
| | - Paul Horwood
- Australian Institute of Tropical Health and Medicine, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD 4811, Australia
- College of Public Health, Medical and Veterinary Sciences, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD 4811, Australia
- Correspondence: (M.F.); (P.H.)
| | - Maryam Golchin
- Australian Institute of Tropical Health and Medicine, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD 4811, Australia
- College of Public Health, Medical and Veterinary Sciences, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD 4811, Australia
- Commonwealth Scientific Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Townsville, QLD 4811, Australia
| | - Andrew Hoskins
- Commonwealth Scientific Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Townsville, QLD 4811, Australia
| | - Tanya Russell
- Australian Institute of Tropical Health and Medicine, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD 4811, Australia
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de Lima CL, da Silva ACG, Moreno GMM, Cordeiro da Silva C, Musah A, Aldosery A, Dutra L, Ambrizzi T, Borges IVG, Tunali M, Basibuyuk S, Yenigün O, Massoni TL, Browning E, Jones K, Campos L, Kostkova P, da Silva Filho AG, dos Santos WP. Temporal and Spatiotemporal Arboviruses Forecasting by Machine Learning: A Systematic Review. Front Public Health 2022; 10:900077. [PMID: 35719644 PMCID: PMC9204152 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2022.900077] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/19/2022] [Accepted: 05/03/2022] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Arboviruses are a group of diseases that are transmitted by an arthropod vector. Since they are part of the Neglected Tropical Diseases that pose several public health challenges for countries around the world. The arboviruses' dynamics are governed by a combination of climatic, environmental, and human mobility factors. Arboviruses prediction models can be a support tool for decision-making by public health agents. In this study, we propose a systematic literature review to identify arboviruses prediction models, as well as models for their transmitter vector dynamics. To carry out this review, we searched reputable scientific bases such as IEE Xplore, PubMed, Science Direct, Springer Link, and Scopus. We search for studies published between the years 2015 and 2020, using a search string. A total of 429 articles were returned, however, after filtering by exclusion and inclusion criteria, 139 were included. Through this systematic review, it was possible to identify the challenges present in the construction of arboviruses prediction models, as well as the existing gap in the construction of spatiotemporal models.
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Affiliation(s)
- Clarisse Lins de Lima
- Nucleus for Computer Engineering, Polytechnique School of the University of Pernambuco, Poli-UPE, Recife, Brazil
| | - Ana Clara Gomes da Silva
- Nucleus for Computer Engineering, Polytechnique School of the University of Pernambuco, Poli-UPE, Recife, Brazil
| | | | | | - Anwar Musah
- Centre for Digital Public Health and Emergencies, Institute for Risk and Disaster Reduction, University College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Aisha Aldosery
- Centre for Digital Public Health and Emergencies, Institute for Risk and Disaster Reduction, University College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Livia Dutra
- Department of Atmospheric Sciences, IAG-USP, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Tercio Ambrizzi
- Department of Atmospheric Sciences, IAG-USP, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Iuri V. G. Borges
- Department of Atmospheric Sciences, IAG-USP, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Merve Tunali
- Boǧaziçi University, Institute of Environmental Sciences, Istanbul, Turkey
| | - Selma Basibuyuk
- Boǧaziçi University, Institute of Environmental Sciences, Istanbul, Turkey
| | - Orhan Yenigün
- Boǧaziçi University, Institute of Environmental Sciences, Istanbul, Turkey
| | - Tiago Lima Massoni
- Department of Systems and Computing, Federal University of Campina Grande, Campina Grande, Brazil
| | - Ella Browning
- Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, University College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Kate Jones
- Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, University College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Luiza Campos
- Department of Civil Environmental and Geomatic Engineering, University College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Patty Kostkova
- Centre for Digital Public Health and Emergencies, Institute for Risk and Disaster Reduction, University College London, London, United Kingdom
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Su Yin M, Bicout DJ, Haddawy P, Schöning J, Laosiritaworn Y, Sa-angchai P. Added-value of mosquito vector breeding sites from street view images in the risk mapping of dengue incidence in Thailand. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2021; 15:e0009122. [PMID: 33684130 PMCID: PMC7971869 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0009122] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/31/2020] [Revised: 03/18/2021] [Accepted: 01/11/2021] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Dengue is an emerging vector-borne viral disease across the world. The primary dengue mosquito vectors breed in containers with sufficient water and nutrition. Outdoor containers can be detected from geotagged images using state-of-the-art deep learning methods. In this study, we utilize such container information from street view images in developing a risk mapping model and determine the added value of including container information in predicting dengue risk. We developed seasonal-spatial models in which the target variable dengue incidence was explained using weather and container variable predictors. Linear mixed models with fixed and random effects are employed in our models to account for different characteristics of containers and weather variables. Using data from three provinces of Thailand between 2015 and 2018, the models are developed at the sub-district level resolution to facilitate the development of effective targeted intervention strategies. The performance of the models is evaluated with two baseline models: a classic linear model and a linear mixed model without container information. The performance evaluated with the correlation coefficients, R-squared, and AIC shows the proposed model with the container information outperforms both baseline models in all three provinces. Through sensitivity analysis, we investigate the containers that have a high impact on dengue risk. Our findings indicate that outdoor containers identified from street view images can be a useful data source in building effective dengue risk models and that the resulting models have potential in helping to target container elimination interventions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Myat Su Yin
- Faculty of ICT, Mahidol University, Nakhon Pathom, Thailand
| | - Dominique J. Bicout
- Biomathematics and Epidemiology, EPSP-TIMC, UMR CNRS 5525, Grenoble-Alpes University, VetAgro Sup, Grenoble, France
- Laue–Langevin Institute, Theory group, Grenoble, France
| | - Peter Haddawy
- Faculty of ICT, Mahidol University, Nakhon Pathom, Thailand
- Bremen Spatial Cognition Center, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany
| | - Johannes Schöning
- Bremen Spatial Cognition Center, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany
| | - Yongjua Laosiritaworn
- Information Technology Center, Department of Disease Control, Ministry of Public Health, Bangkok, Thailand
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