Calibration methodology of low-cost sensors for high-quality monitoring of fine particulate matter

Low concentrations of pollutants may already be associated with significant health effects. An accurate assessment of individual exposure to pollutants therefore requires measuring pollutant concentrations at the finest possible spatial and temporal scales. Low-cost sensors (LCS) of particulate matter (PM) meet this need so well that their use is constantly growing worldwide. However, everyone agrees that LCS must be calibrated before use. Several calibration studies have already been published, but there is not yet a standardized and well-established methodology for PM sensors. In this work, we develop a method combining an adaptation of an approach developed for gas-phase pollutants with a dust event preprocessing to calibrate PM LCS (PMS7003) commonly used in urban environments. From the selection of outliers to model tuning and error estimation, the developed protocol allows to analyze, process and calibrate LCS data using multilinear (MLR) and random forest (RFR) regressions for comparison to a reference instrument. We demonstrate that the calibration performance was very good for PM₁ and PM_2.5 but turns out less good for PM₁₀ (R² = 0.94, RMSE = 0.55 μg/m³, NRMSE = 12 % for PM₁ with MLR, R² = 0.92, RMSE = 0.70 μg/m³, NRMSE = 12 % for PM_2.5 with RFR and R² = 0.54, RMSE = 2.98 μg/m³, NRMSE = 27 % for PM₁₀ with RFR). Dust events removal significantly improved LCS accuracy for PM_2.5 (11 % increase of R² and 49 % decrease of RMSE) but no significant changes for PM₁. Best calibration models included internal relative humidity and temperature for PM_2.5 and only internal relative humidity for PM₁. It turns out that PM₁₀ cannot be properly measured and calibrated because of technical limitations of the PMS7003 sensor. This work therefore provides guidelines for PM LCS calibration. This represents a first step toward standardizing calibration protocols and facilitating collaborative research.

Population dynamics of a poultry hematophagous mite: characterization of the population growth and identification of factors of its slowdown using closed mesocosms

BACKGROUND

A thorough knowledge of the population dynamics of pests and of the main factors affecting population growth is an important prerequisite for the development of effective control strategies. Failures of various treatments aimed at regulating populations of Dermanyssus gallinae are regularly reported in poultry farms and pullulations occur very quickly after first detection. To finely characterize population dynamics of D. gallinae, and to identify the factors modulating population growth, we conducted two successive multi-generation experiments using closed mesocosms equipped with or without automatic counters and housing a host full- or part-time (three nights per week).

RESULTS

Population growth was very rapid and the adult to juvenile ratio very different from the prediction by a mathematical model. A male-biased sex ratio was observed in some mesocosms from 21 days and in most mesocosms from 35 days of population growth originating from an inoculum of adult females. A dramatic slowdown in growth was measured in mesocosms equipped with trackers, where the mites' path to the host was constrained. The slowdown in population growth induced by the intermittent presence of the host compared to its full-time presence was much less marked.

CONCLUSION

These findings suggest avenues of research for new management methods. They question the relevance of a critical threshold based on traditional trap monitoring to manage D. gallinae. Our results highlight a unique characteristic of D. gallinae that makes it a recalcitrant case to threshold-based practices recommended for integrated pest management (IPM) against other arthropod pests. The dramatic effect of a physical constraint for the mite to access the host (unnatural constrained path) confirms an observation made in 1917 and is a reason to design perches that are less conducive to parasite traffic. © 2022 The Authors. Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.

The dynamical Matryoshka model: 1. Incoherent neutron scattering functions for lipid dynamics in bilayers

Fluid lipid bilayers are the building blocks of biological membranes. Although there is a large amount of experimental data using incoherent quasi-elastic neutron scattering (QENS) techniques to study membranes, very little theoretical works have been developed to study the local dynamics of membranes. The main objective of this work is to build a theoretical framework to study and describe the local dynamics of lipids and derive analytical expressions of intermediate scattering functions (ISF) for QENS. As results, we developed the dynamical Matryoshka model which describes the local dynamics of lipid molecules in membrane layers as a nested hierarchical convolution of three motional processes: (i) individual motions described by the vibrational motions of H-atoms; (ii) internal motions including movements of the lipid backbone, head groups and tails, and (iii) molecule movements of the lipid molecule as a whole. The analytical expressions of the ISF associated with these movements are all derived. For use in analyzing the QENS experimental data, we also derived an analytical expression for the aggregate ISF of the Matryoshka model which involves an elastic term plus three inelastic terms of well-separated time scales and whose amplitudes and rates are functions of the lipid motions. And as an illustrative application, we used the aggregated ISF to analyze the experimental QENS data on a lipid sample of multilamellar bilayers of DMPC (1,2-dimyristoyl-sn-glycero-3-phosphocholine). It is clear from this analysis that the dynamical Matryoshka model describes very well the experimental data and allow extracting the dynamical parameters of the studied system.

The dynamical Matryoshka model: 2. Modeling of local lipid dynamics at the sub-nanosecond timescale in phospholipid membranes

Biological membranes are generally formed by lipids and proteins. Often, the membrane properties are studied through model membranes formed by phospholipids only. They are molecules composed by a hydrophilic head group and hydrophobic tails, which can present a panoply of various motions, including small localized movements of a few atoms up to the diffusion of the whole lipid or collective motions of many of them. In the past, efforts were made to measure these motions experimentally by incoherent neutron scattering and to quantify them, but with upcoming modern neutron sources and instruments, such models can now be improved. In the present work, we expose a quantitative and exhaustive study of lipid dynamics on DMPC and DMPG membranes, using the Matryoshka model recently developed by our group. The model is confronted here to experimental data collected on two different membrane samples, at three temperatures and two instruments. Despite such complexity, the model describes reliably the data and permits to extract a series of parameters. The results compare also very well to other values found in the literature.

The dynamical Matryoshka model: 3. Diffusive nature of the atomic motions contained in a new dynamical model for deciphering local lipid dynamics

In accompanying papers [Bicout et al., BioRxiv https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.09.21.461198 (2021); Cissé et al., BioRxiv https://doi.org/10.1101/2022.03.30.486370 (2022)], a new model called Matryoshka model has been proposed to describe the geometry of atomic motions in phospholipid molecules in bilayers and multilamellar vesicles based on their quasielastic neutron scattering (QENS) spectra. Here, in order to characterize the relaxational aspects of this model, the energy widths of the QENS spectra of the samples were analyzed first in a model-free way. The spectra were decomposed into three Lorentzian functions, which are classified as slow, intermediate, and fast motions depending on their widths. The analysis provides the diffusion coefficients, residence times, and geometrical parameters for the three classes of motions. The results corroborate the parameter values such as the amplitudes and the mobile fractions of atomic motions obtained by the application of the Matryoshka model to the same samples. Since the current analysis was carried out independently of the development of the Matryoshka model, the present results enhance the validity of the model. The model will serve as a powerful tool to decipher the dynamics of lipid molecules not only in model systems, but also in more complex systems such as mixtures of different kinds of lipids or natural cell membranes.

Air pollution and health impacts during the COVID-19 lockdowns in Grenoble, France

It is undeniable that exposure to outdoor air pollution impacts the health of populations and therefore constitutes a public health problem. Any actions or events causing variations in air quality have repercussions on populations' health. Faced with the worldwide COVID-19 health crisis that began at the end of 2019, the governments of several countries were forced, in the beginning of 2020, to put in place very strict containment measures that could have led to changes in air quality. While many works in the literature have studied the issue of changes in the levels of air pollutants during the confinements in different countries, very few have focused on the impact of these changes on health risks. In this work, we compare the 2020 period, which includes two lockdowns (March 16 - May 10 and a partial shutdown Oct. 30 - Dec. 15) to a reference period 2015-2019 to determine how these government-mandated lockdowns affected concentrations of NO₂, O₃, PM_2.5, and PM₁₀, and how that affected human health factors, including low birth weight, lung cancer, mortality, asthma, non-accidental mortality, respiratory, and cardiovascular illnesses. To this end, we structured 2020 into four periods, alternating phases of freedom and lockdowns characterized by a stringency index. For each period, we calculated (1) the differences in pollutant levels between 2020 and a reference period (2015-2019) at both background and traffic stations; and (2) the resulting variations in the epidemiological based relative risks of health outcomes. As a result, we found that relative changes in pollutant levels during the 2020 restriction period were as follows: NO₂ (-32%), PM_2.5 (-22%), PM₁₀ (-15%), and O₃ (+10.6%). The pollutants associated with the highest health risk reductions in 2020 were PM_2.5 and NO_2, while PM₁₀ and O₃ changes had almost no effect on health outcomes. Reductions in short-term risks were related to reductions in PM_2.5 (-3.2% in child emergency room visits for asthma during the second lockdown) and NO₂ (-1.5% in hospitalizations for respiratory causes). Long-term risk reductions related to PM_2.5 were low birth weight (-8%), mortality (-3.3%), and lung cancer (-2%), and to NO₂ for mortality (-0.96%). Overall, our findings indicate that the confinement period in 2020 resulted in a substantial improvement in air quality in the Grenoble area.

Health risk assessment with multiple reference indices

BACKGROUND

Conducting a risk assessment can be challenging, especially when dealing with several reference indices, which could lead to conflicting conclusions between studies. The common approach is to use a reference index from a single source based on the risk assessor's preference.

OBJECTIVES

To propose an approach for constructing a multi-reference index-based aggregated risk estimate using mathematical objectivity to reflect all of the available information.

METHODS

The aggregated risk estimate based on multiple reference indices (AREMRI) results from the weighted linear combination of risk distributions that were obtained with each reference index available. The weights were calculated using the degree of agreement among the reference index-based risk distributions. The approach is illustrated through three practical cases of benzene inhalation cancer risk assessment using inhalation unit risks (IURs) from six different regulatory agencies.

RESULTS

The degrees of agreement between the reference index-based risk distribution, obtained with the six IURs, ranged from 0.7 to 92%. The highest weights were attributed to reference index-based risk distributions that had the highest degree of agreement with the maximum number of other reference index-based risk distributions. Regardless of the practical case considered, the AREMRI risk distribution resulted in the third highest risk compared to the six single risk distributions.

CONCLUSION

Our approach can be useful in the presence of several reference indices by providing useful insights, consistency and direct comparisons between studies to support better-informed risk assessment and management decisions. This approach can shed some light on some of the uncertainties associated with the toxicological reference values in a risk assessment associated with the toxicological reference values. If the uncertainty is large, more detailed evaluation of the toxicological reference values would be needed.

Population-level impact of native arthropod predators on the poultry red mite Dermanyssus gallinae

Stimulating the regulation of pests by their natural enemies is a way to improve the sustainability of agriculture and respect for the environment. However, the presence of natural enemies does not guarantee the existence of a pest control service. To what extent are predatory mites commonly found in henhouses actually able to regulate a major egg industry pest mite, Dermanyssus gallinae? To answer this question, we have experimentally recreated portions of a poultry house ecosystem allowing the development of the pest over several generations in the presence of a chick and detritivorous mites (Astigmata) that are ubiquitous and abundant in layer farms. In these conditions, we compared the growth of D. gallinae populations in the presence and absence of native predatory arthropods. No effect of native predators on the growth of the D. gallinae population could be detected despite high initial predator-to-prey ratios and satisfactory growth of predator populations. Prey switching to the alternative prey Astigmata likely dilutes the effect of predation on the target prey. Further exploration is needed to see whether action could be taken to enhance the effect of top-down regulation.

A consensus approach for estimating health risk: Application to inhalation cancer risks

Conducting a risk assessment is challenging because various and contrasting risk indicators are available, which can lead to discrepancies and, sometimes, conflicting conclusions. Constructing and using a consensus risk indicator (CRI) could provide a reliable alternative that is consistent and supports direct comparisons. The goal of this study is to propose a structured and pragmatic approach for constructing a CRI distribution and demonstrate its feasibility and easy implementation when conducting risk assessments. A CRI distribution is constructed as a weighted combination of existing indicators where the weights are obtained by using the overlapping areas of an individual indicator's distribution and an aggregated reference distribution. The approach is illustrated through an assessment of human cancer risk following inhalation exposure. The CRI is constructed using eight risk indicators. The CRI distribution parameters for 199 human carcinogenic chemicals associated with inhalation exposure were determined and are presented in an interactive table. To aid the wider implementation of the CRI approach, a user-friendly and interactive web application, named InCaRisk, was created to facilitate the cancer risk estimation following inhalation exposure. Our approach could be useful for enhancing the quality of regulatory decisions and protecting human health from environmental pollutants; our approach can be applied for a given health outcome, route of exposure and exposure setting.

Added-value of mosquito vector breeding sites from street view images in the risk mapping of dengue incidence in Thailand

Dengue is an emerging vector-borne viral disease across the world. The primary dengue mosquito vectors breed in containers with sufficient water and nutrition. Outdoor containers can be detected from geotagged images using state-of-the-art deep learning methods. In this study, we utilize such container information from street view images in developing a risk mapping model and determine the added value of including container information in predicting dengue risk. We developed seasonal-spatial models in which the target variable dengue incidence was explained using weather and container variable predictors. Linear mixed models with fixed and random effects are employed in our models to account for different characteristics of containers and weather variables. Using data from three provinces of Thailand between 2015 and 2018, the models are developed at the sub-district level resolution to facilitate the development of effective targeted intervention strategies. The performance of the models is evaluated with two baseline models: a classic linear model and a linear mixed model without container information. The performance evaluated with the correlation coefficients, R-squared, and AIC shows the proposed model with the container information outperforms both baseline models in all three provinces. Through sensitivity analysis, we investigate the containers that have a high impact on dengue risk. Our findings indicate that outdoor containers identified from street view images can be a useful data source in building effective dengue risk models and that the resulting models have potential in helping to target container elimination interventions.

Metabotypes of Pseudomonas aeruginosa Correlate with Antibiotic Resistance, Virulence and Clinical Outcome in Cystic Fibrosis Chronic Infections

Pseudomonas aeruginosa (P.a) is one of the most critical antibiotic resistant bacteria in the world and is the most prevalent pathogen in cystic fibrosis (CF), causing chronic lung infections that are considered one of the major causes of mortality in CF patients. Although several studies have contributed to understanding P.a within-host adaptive evolution at a genomic level, it is still difficult to establish direct relationships between the observed mutations, expression of clinically relevant phenotypes, and clinical outcomes. Here, we performed a comparative untargeted LC/HRMS-based metabolomics analysis of sequential isolates from chronically infected CF patients to obtain a functional view of P.a adaptation. Metabolic profiles were integrated with expression of bacterial phenotypes and clinical measurements following multiscale analysis methods. Our results highlighted significant associations between P.a “metabotypes”, expression of antibiotic resistance and virulence phenotypes, and frequency of clinical exacerbations, thus identifying promising biomarkers and therapeutic targets for difficult-to-treat P.a infections

Bird Species Involved in West Nile Virus Epidemiological Cycle in Southern Québec

Despite many studies on West Nile Virus (WNV) in the US, including the reservoir role of bird species and the summer shifts of the Culex mosquito, feeding from birds to mammals, there have been few equivalent studies in the neighboring regions of Canada where WNV is endemic. Here, a priority list of bird species likely involved in WNV transmission in the greater Montréal area is constructed by combining three sources of data: (i) from WNV surveillance in wild birds (2002–2015); (ii) blood meal analysis of Culex pipiens–restuans (CPR), the primary enzootic vectors of WNV in the region, collected from surveillance in 2008 and 2014; (iii) literature review on the sero-prevalence/host competence of resident birds. Each of these data sources yielded 18, 23 and 53 species, and overall, 67 different bird species were identified as potential WNV amplifiers/reservoirs. Of those identified from CPR blood meals, Common starlings, American robins, Song sparrows and House sparrows ranked the highest and blood meal analysis demonstrated a seasonal shift in feed preference from birds to mammals by CPR. Our study indicates that there are broad similarities in the ecology of WNV between our region and the northeastern US, although the relative importance of bird species varies somewhat between regions.

Occupational Co-exposures to Multiple Chemical Agents from Workplace Measurements by the US Occupational Safety and Health Administration

OBJECTIVES

The occupational environment represents an important source of exposures to multiplehazards for workers' health. Although it is recognized that mixtures of agents may have differenteffects on health compared to their individual effects, studies generally focus on the assessment ofindividual exposures. Our objective was to identify occupational co-exposures occurring in the United States using the multi-industry occupational exposure databank of the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA).

METHODS

Using OSHA's Integrated Management Information System (IMIS), measurement data from workplace inspections occurring from 1979 to 2015 were examined. We defined a workplace situation (WS) by grouping measurements that occurred within a company, within the same occupation (i.e. job title) within 1 year. All agents present in each WS were listed and the resulting databank was analyzed with the Spectrosome approach, a methodology inspired by network science, to determine global patterns of co-exposures. The presence of an agent in a WS was defined either as detected, or measured above 20% of a relevant occupational exposure limit (OEL).

RESULTS

Among the 334 648 detected exposure measurements of 105 distinct agents collected from 14 513 US companies, we identified 125 551 WSs, with 31% involving co-exposure. Fifty-eight agents were detected with others in >50% of WSs, 29 with a proportion >80%. Two clusters were highlighted, one for solvents and one for metals. Toluene, xylene, acetone, hexone, 2-butanone, and N-butyl acetate formed the basis of the solvent cluster. The main agents of the metal cluster were zinc, iron, lead, copper, manganese, nickel, cadmium, and chromium. 68 556 WS were included in the analyses based on levels of exposure above 20% of their OEL, with 12.4% of co-exposure. In this analysis, while the metal cluster remained, only the combinations of toluene with xylene or 2-butanone were frequently observed among solvents. An online web application allows the examination of industry specific patterns.

CONCLUSIONS

We identified frequent co-exposure situations in the IMIS databank. Using the spectrome approach, we revealed global combination patterns and the agents most often implicated. Future work should endeavor to explore the toxicological effects of prevalent combinations of exposures on workers' health to prioritize research and prevention efforts.

Fireworks-like surveillance approach: The case of HPAI H5N1 in wild birds in Europe

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) risk management requires efficient surveillance of the infection in wild birds for early warning purposes. In this study, our aim was to describe the spread of continent-wide infection cases using a fireworks model and therefore improve current surveillance systems. The fireworks model is a metaphor illustrating the spread of HPAI as a point source epizootic. The approach is based on early detection of the outbreak seeds (sparks from the fireworks) and uses a predictive model of the probability of the occurrence of new cases following a seed introduction; this then determines the spatiotemporal perimeter for intense surveillance investigations. For a case study, we used surveillance data on HPAI H5N1 in wild birds across Europe between 2005 and 2010 to describe the outbreaks and determine the success of the case detection used to inform management of the disease. The fireworks description assumes simultaneous introductions of 'seeds' of cases, which then 'explode' in local foci but do not merge into a progressive disease wave. This model fits the data well. Using this predictive approach for HPAI cases in EU countries, we found that the investigation radius needed to achieve a detection level of 90% of new cases after an outbreak ranged from 10 km to more than 300 km, depending on the outbreak pattern. Based on these findings, the fireworks approach can be a valuable method for identifying the perimeters and risk areas to be targeted for enhanced surveillance. The rationale of the fireworks approach is quite generic and can easily be adapted to different situations and contexts.

Dynamical decoration of stabilized-microtubules by Tau-proteins

Tau is a microtubule-associated protein that regulates axonal transport, stabilizes and spatially organizes microtubules in parallel networks. The Tau-microtubule pair is crucial for maintaining the architecture and integrity of axons. Therefore, it is essential to understand how these two entities interact to ensure and modulate the normal axonal functions. Based on evidence from several published experiments, we have developed a two-dimensional model that describes the interaction between a population of Tau proteins and a stabilized microtubule at the scale of the tubulin dimers (binding sites) as an adsorption-desorption dynamical process in which Tau can bind on the microtubule outer surface via two distinct modes: a longitudinal (along a protofilament) and lateral (across adjacent protofilaments) modes. Such a process yields a dynamical distribution of Tau molecules on the microtubule surface referred to as microtubule decoration that we have characterized at the equilibrium using two observables: the total microtubule surface coverage with Tau's and the distribution of nearest neighbors Tau's. Using both analytical and numerical approaches, we have derived expressions and computed these observables as a function of key parameters controlling the binding reaction: the stoichiometries of the Taus in the two binding modes, the associated dissociation constants and the ratio of the Tau concentration to that of microtubule tubulin dimers.

Determining the binding parameters from co-sedimentation assays

The stoichiometry n and the dissociation constant [Formula: see text] are key binding parameters characterizing the ligand-macromolecule interactions and equilibria. Equilibrium co-sedimentation experiments are performed in varying the concentration of one of the reactant while keeping constant that of the other reactant. The measured observable is the fraction [Formula: see text] of bound ligands when the ligand concentration is kept constant while that of macromolecules is varying whereas it is the macromolecule coverage [Formula: see text] with bound ligands when the ligand concentration is varying while that of macromolecules is kept constant. We have derived general expressions for [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] and subsequently showed that those expressions are in perfect agreement with simulations for a system of large ligands binding on macromolecules. Approximations have been developed to derive mathematical simple analytical expressions for [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] that can be used to fit the experimental data and thus extract, n and [Formula: see text] within the framework of equilibrium co-sedimentation assays. The method usefulness is illustrated and demonstrated by fitting the data from the literature using the derived formulas to determine the binding parameters.

Lung cancer risk assessment for workers exposed to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in various industries

BACKGROUND

Millions of workers are exposed to carcinogenic polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) mixtures. The toxicity of PAH mixtures is variable and depends on the composition of the mixture, which is related to the emission sources. Although several indicators exist, the cancer risk estimation associated with occupational exposure to PAHs is poorly known.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the risk of lung cancer associated with PAHs in several industries using the atmospheric concentrations of benzo[a]pyrene (BaP) as a proxy.

METHODS

A total of 93 exposure groups belonging to 9 industries were investigated. Eight indicators found in the literature were compared to assess risks. A consensual indicator was used to estimate lung cancer risks.

RESULTS

Approximately 30% of the exposure groups were above the maximal risk level of the European Union (10^-4). The risk probabilities were >10^-3 for coke and silicon production; >10^-4 for the manufacturing of carbon products and aluminum production; >10^-5 for foundries and combustion processes; >10^-6 for the use of lubricating oils and engine exhaust emissions; and >10^-7 for bitumen. The risk probabilities were highly variable within industries (from 1 to 1000 likelihood). A total of 27 (95% CI: 0.1-54) contemporary additional lung cancer cases could be expected per year in the French exposed population based on estimations using published data.

CONCLUSION

This study provides an overview of cancer risk estimation in many industries. Despite efforts and changes that had been made to decrease risks, PAHs remain a sanitary threat for people exposed to these pollutants in occupational environments.

The spectrosome of occupational health problems

Given the increased prevalence of cancer, respiratory diseases, and reproductive disorders, for which multifactorial origins are strongly suspected, the impact of the environment on the population represents a substantial public health challenge. Surveillance systems have become an essential public health decision-making tool. Networks have been constructed to facilitate the development of analyses of the multifactorial aspects of the relationships between occupational contexts and health. The aim of this study is to develop and present an approach for the optimal exploitation of observational databases to describe and improve the understanding of the (occupational) environment-health relationships, taking into account key multifactorial aspects. We have developed a spectral analysis (SA) approach that takes into account both the multi-exposure and dynamic natures of occupational health problems (OHPs) and related associations. The main results of this paper are to present the construction method of the "spectrum" and "spectrosome" of OHPs (range and structured list of occupational exposures) and describe the information contained therein with an illustrative example. The approach is illustrated using the case of non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) from the French National Occupational Diseases Surveillance and Prevention Network database as a working example of an occupational disease. We found that the NHL spectrum includes 40 sets of occupational exposures characterized by important multi-exposures, especially solvent combinations or pesticide combinations, but also specific exposures such as polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, formaldehyde and ionizing radiation. These findings may be useful for surveillance and the assessment of occupational exposure related to health risks.

Thermodynamics of lipid multi-lamellar vesicles in presence of sterols at high hydrostatic pressure

We compared the effect of cholesterol at different concentration on the phase behaviour of DMPC (1,2-dimyristoyl-sn-glycero-3-phosphocholine) multilamellar vesicles. We used pressure perturbation differential scanning calorimetry (PPC) that studies a system on the whole by giving access to relevant thermodynamic quantities, and elastic incoherent neutron scattering (EINS) that probes local motions of a system at the atomic level by allowing extraction of dynamical parameters. PPC revealed that the volume expansion coefficient of DMPC and DMPC/Cholesterol samples with 13 and 25 mol% cholesterol is a linear function of the heat capacity measured by differential scanning calorimetry. Neutron backscattering spectroscopy showed that the mean square displacements of H atoms do exhibit an increase with temperature and a decrease under increasing pressure. Cholesterol added at concentrations of 25 and 50 mol% led to suppression of the main phase transition. Taking advantage of these results, the present study aims (i) to show that calorimetry and EINS using the Bicout and Zaccai model equally permit to get access to thermodynamic quantities characterizing pure DMPC and DMPC/cholesterol mixtures, thus directly confirming the theoretical method, and (ii) to validate our approach as function of temperature and of pressure, as both are equally important and complementary thermodynamic variables.

Ecology of West Nile virus across four European countries: empirical modelling of the Culex pipiens abundance dynamics as a function of weather

Background

Culex pipiens is the major vector of West Nile virus in Europe, and is causing frequent outbreaks throughout the southern part of the continent. Proper empirical modelling of the population dynamics of this species can help in understanding West Nile virus epidemiology, optimizing vector surveillance and mosquito control efforts. But modelling results may differ from place to place. In this study we look at which type of models and weather variables can be consistently used across different locations.

Methods

Weekly mosquito trap collections from eight functional units located in France, Greece, Italy and Serbia for several years were combined. Additionally, rainfall, relative humidity and temperature were recorded. Correlations between lagged weather conditions and Cx. pipiens dynamics were analysed. Also seasonal autoregressive integrated moving-average (SARIMA) models were fitted to describe the temporal dynamics of Cx. pipiens and to check whether the weather variables could improve these models.

Results

Correlations were strongest between mean temperatures at short time lags, followed by relative humidity, most likely due to collinearity. Precipitation alone had weak correlations and inconsistent patterns across sites. SARIMA models could also make reasonable predictions, especially when longer time series of Cx. pipiens observations are available.

Conclusions

Average temperature was a consistently good predictor across sites. When only short time series (~ < 4 years) of observations are available, average temperature can therefore be used to model Cx. pipiens dynamics. When longer time series (~ > 4 years) are available, SARIMAs can provide better statistical descriptions of Cx. pipiens dynamics, without the need for further weather variables. This suggests that density dependence is also an important determinant of Cx. pipiens dynamics.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s13071-017-2484-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Correcting binding parameters for interacting ligand-lattice systems

Binding of ligands to macromolecules is central to many functional and regulatory biological processes. Key parameters characterizing ligand-macromolecule interactions are the stoichiometry, inducing the number of ligands per macromolecule binding site, and the dissociation constant, quantifying the ligand-binding site affinity. Both these parameters can be obtained from analyses of classical saturation experiments using the standard binding equation that offers the great advantage of mathematical simplicity but becomes an approximation for situations of interest when a ligand binds and covers more than one single binding site on the macromolecule. Using the framework of car-parking problem with latticelike macromolecules where each ligand can cover simultaneously several consecutive binding sites, we showed that employing the standard analysis leads to underestimation of binding parameters, i.e., ligands appear larger than they actually are and their affinity is also greater than it is. Therefore, we have derived expressions allowing to determine the ligand size and true binding parameters (stoichiometry and dissociation constant) as a function of apparent binding parameters retrieved from standard saturation experiments.

The Dynamical Transition of Lipid Multilamellar Bilayers as a Matter of Cooperativity

The present study is the application of a two-state model formerly developed by Bicout and Zaccai [ Bicout , D. J. and Zaccai , G. Biophys. J. 2001 , 80 ( 3 ), 1115 - 1123 ] to describe the dynamical transition exhibited in the atomic mean square displacements of biological samples in terms of dynamic and thermodynamic parameters. Data were obtained by elastic incoherent neutron scattering on 1,2-dimyristoyl-sn-glycero-3-phosphocholine lipid membranes in various hydration states and on one partially per-deuterated lipid membrane. Fitting the data with the model allowed investigating which parts of lipid molecules were mainly involved in the dynamical transition, heads, tails, or both. Clear differences were found between the fully protonated and partially deuterated membranes. These findings shed light on the question of what is the degree of dynamical cooperativity of the atoms during the transition. Whereas the level of hydration does not significantly affect it, as the dry, the intermediate dry, and fully hydrated membranes all undergo a rather broad transition, the transition of the lipid tails is much sharper and sets in at much lower temperature than that of the heads. Therefore, the dynamical cooperativity appears high among the particles in the tails. Moreover, the transition of the lipid tails has to be completed first before the one of the head groups starts.

Effect of the epidemiological heterogeneity on the outbreak outcomes

Multi-host pathogens infect and are transmitted by different kinds of hosts and, therefore, the host heterogeneity may have a great impact on the outbreak outcome of the system. This paper deals with the following problem: consider the system of interacting and mixed populations of hosts epidemiologically different, what would be the outbreak outcome for each host population composing the system as a result of mixing in comparison to the situation with zero mixing? To address this issue we have characterized the epidemic response function for a single-host population and defined a heterogeneity index measuring how host systems are epidemiologically different in terms of generation time, basic reproduction number R0 and, therefore, epidemic response function. Based on the individual epidemiological characteristics of populations, with heterogeneities and mixing affinities, the response of subpopulations in a multi-host system is compared to that of a single-host system. The case of a two-host system, in which the infection transmission depends solely on the infection susceptibility of the receiver, is analyzed in detail. Three types of responses are observed: dilution, amplification or no effect, corresponding to lower, higher or equal attack rates, respectively, for a host population in an interacting multi-host system compared to the zero-mixing situation. We find that no effect is generally observed for zero heterogeneity. A dilution effect is always observed for all the host populations when their individual R0,i < 1. Whereas, when at least one of the individual R0,i > 1, then the hosts ''i'' with R0,i > R0,j undergo a dilution effect while the hosts ''j'' undergo an amplification effect.

Modeling the exposure functions of atmospheric polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon mixtures in occupational environments

BACKGROUND

The health risk assessment associated with polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) mixtures faces three main issues: the lack of knowledge regarding occupational exposure mixtures, the accurate chemical characterization and the estimation of cancer risks.

OBJECTIVES

To describe industries in which PAH exposures are encountered and construct working context-exposure function matrices, to enable the estimation of both the PAH expected exposure level and chemical characteristic profile of workers based on their occupational sector and activity.

METHODS

Overall, 1729 PAH samplings from the Exporisq-HAP database (E-HAP) were used. An approach was developed to (i) organize E-HAP in terms of the most detailed unit of description of a job and (ii) structure and subdivide the organized E-HAP into groups of detailed industry units, with each group described by the distribution of concentrations of gaseous and particulate PAHs, which would result in working context-exposure function matrices. PAH exposures were described using two scales: phase (total particulate and gaseous PAH distribution concentrations) and congener (16 congener PAH distribution concentrations).

RESULTS

Nine industrial sectors were organized according to the exposure durations, short-term, mid-term and long-term into 5, 36 and 47 detailed industry units, which were structured, respectively, into 2, 4, and 7 groups for the phase scale and 2, 3, and 6 groups for the congener scale, corresponding to as much distinct distribution of concentrations of several PAHs. For the congener scale, which included groups that used products derived from coal, the correlations between the PAHs were strong; for groups that used products derived from petroleum, all PAHs in the mixtures were poorly correlated with each other.

CONCLUSIONS

The current findings provide insights into both the PAH emissions generated by various industrial processes and their associated occupational exposures and may be further used to develop risk assessment analyses of cancers associated with PAH mixtures.

Investigation on predominant Leptospira serovars and its distribution in humans and livestock in Thailand, 2010-2015

BACKGROUND

Leptospirosis is a worldwide zoonotic bacterial disease caused by infection with leptospires. Leptospirosis in humans and livestock is an endemic and epidemic disease in Thailand. Livestock may act as reservoirs for leptospires and source for human infection.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Data on leptospirosis infection in humans and livestock (Buffaloes, Cattle, and Pigs) species during 2010 to 2015 were analyzed. Serum samples were examined using Microscopic Agglutination Test (MAT) to identify antibodies against Leptospira serovars using a cut-off titer ≥ 1:100. The seroprevalence was 23.7% in humans, 24.8% in buffaloes, 28.1% in cattle, and 11.3% in pigs. Region specific prevalence among humans and livestock was found in a wide range. The most predominant serovars were Shermani, followed by Bratislava, Panama, and Sejroe in human, Shermani, Ranarum, and Tarassovi in buffaloes, and Shermani and Ranarum in cattle and pigs. Equally highest MAT titers against multiple serovars per one sample were found mainly in buffaloes and cattle showing equally titers against Ranarum and Shermani. The correlations of distribution of serovars across Thailand's regions were found to be similar in pattern for cattle but not for buffaloes. In humans, the serovar distribution in the south differed from other regions. By logistic regression, the results indicated that livestock is more susceptible to infection by serovar Shermani when compared to humans.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

This study gives a detailed picture of the predominance of Leptospira serovars in relation to region, humans and typical livestock. The broad spatial distribution of seroprevalence was analyzed across and within species as well as regions in Thailand. Our finding may guide public health policy makers to implement appropriate control measures and help to reduce the impact of leptospirosis in Thailand.

Ecology of West Nile virus across four European countries: review of weather profiles, vector population dynamics and vector control response

West Nile virus (WNV) represents a serious burden to human and animal health because of its capacity to cause unforeseen and large epidemics. Until 2004, only lineage 1 and 3 WNV strains had been found in Europe. Lineage 2 strains were initially isolated in 2004 (Hungary) and in 2008 (Austria) and for the first time caused a major WNV epidemic in 2010 in Greece with 262 clinical human cases and 35 fatalities. Since then, WNV lineage 2 outbreaks have been reported in several European countries including Italy, Serbia and Greece. Understanding the interaction of ecological factors that affect WNV transmission is crucial for preventing or decreasing the impact of future epidemics. The synchronous co-occurrence of competent mosquito vectors, virus, bird reservoir hosts, and susceptible humans is necessary for the initiation and propagation of an epidemic. Weather is the key abiotic factor influencing the life-cycles of the mosquito vector, the virus, the reservoir hosts and the interactions between them. The purpose of this paper is to review and compare mosquito population dynamics, and weather conditions, in three ecologically different contexts (urban/semi-urban, rural/agricultural, natural) across four European countries (Italy, France, Serbia, Greece) with a history of WNV outbreaks. Local control strategies will be described as well. Improving our understanding of WNV ecology is a prerequisite step for appraising and optimizing vector control strategies in Europe with the ultimate goal to minimize the probability of WNV infection.

Ranking occupational contexts associated with risk of non-Hodgkin lymphoma

BACKGROUND

Risk factors associated with non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) remain unknown, but certain occupational contexts (OCs) have been implicated. The objective of this study was to inventory, from the accumulated knowledge, associations between OCs and NHL risk.

METHODS

Literature was used to identify the NHL-associated OCs. For each context, items were ranked both by scientific interest and the association strength.

RESULTS

Three ranked lists of OCs related to NHL were constructed. We found that NHL was associated with 31 occupational activities, 91 occupational exposures, and 35 occupational activity-exposure combinations. Among them, 5 activities, 2 exposures, and 3 combinations, involving agricultural or industrial sector and solvents or pesticides, were highlighted with the highest publications number and the strongest association with NHL risk.

CONCLUSION

These results could be useful in both providing a ranked inventory of OCs associated with NHL risk and highlighting "hot" occupational activities and exposures. Am. J. Ind. Med. 59:561-574, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Urinary elimination kinetics of 3-hydroxybenzo(a)pyrene and 1-hydroxypyrene of workers in a prebake aluminum electrode production plant: Evaluation of diuresis correction methods for routine biological monitoring

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are ubiquitous carcinogenic pollutants emitted in complex mixtures in the ambient air and contribute to the incidence of human cancers. Taking into account all absorption routes, biomonitoring is more relevant than atmospheric measurements to health risk assessment, but knowledge about how to use biomarkers is essential. In this work, urinary elimination kinetic of 1-hydroxypyrene (1-OHP) and 3-hydroxybenzo(a)pyrene (3-OHBaP) were studied in six electrometallurgy workers after PAHs exposure. Spot samples were collected on pre- and post-shift of the last workday then the whole urinations were separately sampled during the weekend. Non-linear mixed effects models were built to study inter- and intra-individual variability of both urinary metabolites toxicokinetic and investigate diuresis correction ways. Comparison of models confirmed the diuresis correction requirement to perform urinary biomonitoring of pyrene and BaP exposure. Urinary creatinine was found as a better way than specific gravity to normalize urinary concentrations of 1-OHP and as a good compromise for 3-OHBaP. Maximum observed levels were 1.0 µmol/mol creatinine and 0.8nmol/mol creatinine for 1-OHP and 3-OHBaP, respectively. Urinary 1-OHP concentrations on post-shift were higher than pre-shift for each subject, while 3-OHBaP levels were steady or decreased, and maximum urinary excretion rates of 3-OHBaP was delayed compared to 1-OHP. These results were consistent with the sampling time previously proposed for 3-OHBaP analysis, the next morning after exposure. Apparent urinary half-life of 1-OHP and 3-OHBaP ranged from 12.0h to 18.2h and from 4.8h to 49.5h, respectively. Finally, inter-individual variability of 1-OHP half-life seemed linked with the cutaneous absorption extent during exposure, while calculation of 3-OHBaP half-life required the awareness of individual urinary background level. The toxicokinetic modeling described here is an efficient tool which could be used to describe elimination kinetic and determine diuresis correction way for any other urinary biomarkers of chemicals or metals exposure.

Distribution of Leptospira interrogans by Multispacer Sequence Typing in Urban Norway Rats (Rattus norvegicus): A Survey in France in 2011-2013

BACKGROUND

Urban leptospirosis has increasingly been reported in both developing and developed countries. The control of the disease is limited because our understanding of basic aspects of the epidemiology, including the transmission routes of leptospires among rat populations, remains incomplete. Through the ability to distinguish among Leptospira strains in rats, multispacer sequence typing (MST) could provide a modern understanding of Leptospira epidemiology; however, to our knowledge, the distribution of Leptospira strains among urban rat colonies has not been investigated using MST.

AIMS AND METHODOLOGY

The objective of this study was to identify the Leptospira strains present in rats (Rattus norvegicus) in Lyon (France) using MST and to characterize their spatial distribution. Kidneys and urine were collected from rats trapped live in seven locations in the city and in one suburban location. Each location was considered to represent a rat colony. Bacterial cultures and quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) assays were performed, and the L. interrogans DNA identified was then genotyped using MST. The distributions of Leptospira strains were spatially described.

KEY RESULTS

Among 84 wild rats, MST profiles were obtained in 35 of 37 rats that had a positive result for L. interrogans by bacterial culture and/or qPCR analyses. All of the MST profiles were related to reference strains previously isolated from human patients that belong to the serogroup Icterohaemorrhagiae and the serovars [strain(s)] Copenhageni [Wijinberg or M20] (n = 26), Icterohaemorrhagiae [CHU Réunion] (n = 7), Icterohaemorrhagiae [R1] (n = 1) and Copenhageni [Shibaura 9] (n = 1). Each colony was infected with leptospires having the same MST profile.

MAJOR CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrated that MST could be used for the purpose of field studies, either on culture isolates or on DNA extracted from kidneys and urine, to distinguish among L. interrogans isolates in rats. MST could thus be used to monitor their distributions in urban rats from the same city, thereby providing new knowledge that could be applied to explore the circulation of L. interrogans infection in rat colonies. Because the strains are related to those previously found in humans, this application of MST could aid in the source tracking of human leptospirosis, and the findings would be relevant for public health purposes according to the One Health principle.

Searching for a link between the L-BMAA neurotoxin and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis: a study protocol of the French BMAALS programme

INTRODUCTION

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is the most common motor neurone disease. It occurs in two forms: (1) familial cases, for which several genes have been identified and (2) sporadic cases, for which various hypotheses have been formulated. Notably, the β-N-methylamino-L-alanine (L-BMAA) toxin has been postulated to be involved in the occurrence of sporadic ALS. The objective of the French BMAALS programme is to study the putative link between L-BMAA and ALS.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

The programme covers the period from 1 January 2003 to 31 December 2011. Using multiple sources of ascertainment, all the incident ALS cases diagnosed during this period in the area under study (10 counties spread over three French regions) were collected. First, the standardised incidence ratio will be calculated for each municipality under concern. Then, by applying spatial clustering techniques, overincidence and underincidence zones of ALS will be sought. A case-control study, in the subpopulation living in the identified areas, will gather information about patients' occupations, leisure activities and lifestyle habits in order to assess potential risk factors to which they are or have been exposed. Specimens of drinking water, food and biological material (brain tissue) will be examined to assess the presence of L-BMAA in the environment and tissues of ALS cases and controls.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The study has been reviewed and approved by the French ethical committee of the CPP SOOM IV (Comité de Protection des Personnes Sud-Ouest & Outre-Mer IV). The results will be published in peer-reviewed journals and presented at national and international conferences.

Distribution of Leptospira serogroups in cattle herds and dogs in France

A retrospective study was conducted to identify and describe the distribution pattern of Leptospira serogroups in domestic animals in France. The population consisted of cattle herds and dogs with clinically suspected leptospirosis that were tested at the “Laboratoire des Leptospires” between 2008 and 2011. The laboratory database was queried for records of cattle and dogs in which seroreactivity in Leptospira microagglutination tests was consistent with a recent or current infection, excluding vaccine serogroups in dogs. A total of 394 cattle herds and 232 dogs were diagnosed with clinical leptospirosis, and the results suggested infection by the Leptospira serogroup Australis in 43% and 63%, respectively; by the Leptospira serogroup Grippotyphosa in 17% and 9%, respectively; and by the Leptospira serogroup Sejroe in 33% and 6%, respectively. This inventory of infecting Leptospira serogroups revealed that current vaccines in France are not fully capable of preventing the clinical form of the disease.

Size independence of statistics for boundary collisions of random walks and its implications for spin-polarized gases

A bounded random walk exhibits strong correlations between collisions with a boundary. For a one-dimensional walk, we obtain the full statistical distribution of the number of such collisions in a time t. In the large t limit, the fluctuations in the number of collisions are found to be size independent (independent of the distance between boundaries). This occurs for any interboundary distance, from less to greater than the mean free path, and means that this boundary effect does not decay with increasing system size. As an application, we consider spin-polarized gases, such as 3-helium, in the three-dimensional diffusive regime. The above results mean that the depolarizing effect of rare magnetic impurities in the container walls is orders of magnitude larger than a Smoluchowski assumption (to neglect correlations) would imply. This could explain why depolarization is so sensitive to the container's treatment with magnetic fields prior to its use.

Model to track wild birds for avian influenza by means of population dynamics and surveillance information

Design, sampling and data interpretation constitute an important challenge for wildlife surveillance of avian influenza viruses (AIV). The aim of this study was to construct a model to improve and enhance identification in both different periods and locations of avian species likely at high risk of contact with AIV in a specific wetland. This study presents an individual-based stochastic model for the Ebre Delta as an example of this appliance. Based on the Monte-Carlo method, the model simulates the dynamics of the spread of AIV among wild birds in a natural park following introduction of an infected bird. Data on wild bird species population, apparent AIV prevalence recorded in wild birds during the period of study, and ecological information on factors such as behaviour, contact rates or patterns of movements of waterfowl were incorporated as inputs of the model. From these inputs, the model predicted those species that would introduce most of AIV in different periods and those species and areas that would be at high risk as a consequence of the spread of these AIV incursions. This method can serve as a complementary tool to previous studies to optimize the allocation of the limited AI surveillance resources in a local complex ecosystem. However, this study indicates that in order to predict the evolution of the spread of AIV at the local scale, there is a need for further research on the identification of host factors involved in the interspecies transmission of AIV.

Modelling occupational inhalation exposure to concentration peaks of chemicals and associated health risk assessment

OBJECTIVES

The aims of this study were to estimate inhalation exposure to chemicals and the resulting acute health risks for working scenarios characterized by successive peaks of pollutant concentrations.

METHODS

A stochastic two-zone model combining a time-varying emission function and field-derived probabilistic distributed input parameter was used to predict both instantaneous and 15-min averaged pollutant concentrations during the decanting operations performed in a pathology laboratory. The location of the workers was taken into account in the model for computing probability distributions of inhalation exposures and for subsequently characterizing hazard quotients (HQ) for health risk purposes. The model was assessed by comparison with repeated individual monitoring performed on the workers during the same tasks.

RESULTS

Modelled inhalation exposure profiles revealed 15-min average concentrations of 1.7 and 208 mg m(-) (3) for formaldehyde (FA) and toluene (TOL), respectively. The individual monitoring performed showed similar average concentrations, with 1.2 and 175 mg m(-) (3) for FA and TOL. No more than three to five successive FA concentration peaks were generally sufficient in the modelling exercise to provide 15-min estimated exposures exceeding short-term exposure limits (STEL). Modelled HQ higher than unity and STEL exceedance probabilities higher than 0.5 were found for FA, whereas estimated TOL health risks were notably lower according to high exposure limits. Estimated inhalation exposure distributions frequently ranged over one order of magnitude for the two pollutants, reflecting both the natural exposure variability and the uncertainty of some of the two-zone model input parameters.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings indicate that the developed approach may be useful for modelling occupational exposures and acute health risks related to chemicals in situations involving time-varying emission sources. Modelled exposure distributions may also be used within Bayesian decision analysis frameworks for making exposure judgements and refining risk management measures.

Rupture of a biomembrane under dynamic surface tension

How long will a fluid membrane vesicle stressed with a steady ramp of micropipette last before rupture? Or conversely, how high should the surface tension be to rupture such a membrane? To answer these challenging questions we developed a theoretical framework that allows for the description and reproduction of dynamic tension spectroscopy (DTS) observations. The kinetics of the membrane rupture under ramps of surface tension is described as a succession of an initial pore formation followed by the Brownian process of the pore radius crossing the time-dependent energy barrier. We present the formalism and a derive (formal) analytical expression of the survival probability describing the fate of the membrane under DTS conditions. Using numerical simulations for the membrane prepared in an initial state with a given distribution of times for pore nucleation, we study the membrane lifetime (or inverse of rupture rate) and distribution of membrane surface tension at rupture as a function of membrane characteristics like pore nucleation rate, the energy barrier to failure, and tension loading rate. It is found that simulations reproduce the main features of DTS experiments, particularly the pore nucleation and pore-size diffusion-controlled limits of membrane rupture dynamics. This approach can be adapted and applied to processes of permeation and pore opening in membranes (electroporation, membrane disruption by antimicrobial peptides, vesicle fusion).

Theoretical formulation for mosquito host-feeding patterns: application to a West Nile virus focus of southern France

Host-feeding patterns play a key role in the transmission of vector-borne diseases such as West Nile fever, which involves two kinds of vertebrates, birds and mammals. In this study, we propose a theoretical formulation for mosquito host-feeding patterns using three quantities, as follows: the apparent attractiveness/contact probabilities, the conditional host(-feeding) preferences, and the enzootic versus bridge probabilities. Using results from host-baited trap collections, the quantities defined above were assessed for the most abundant mosquito species in the main West Nile virus focus of southern France. We found that host availability is important in determining the efficiency of bridge vectors, and that even ornithophilic mosquitoes like Culex species, classically classified as enzootic vectors, may turn out to be efficient bridge vectors in certain contexts of host abundance. Our developed theoretical framework can easily be adapted and applied to other experimental data and other vector-borne diseases.

Modelling the time profiles of organic solvent concentrations for occupational exposure assessment purposes

OBJECTIVES

Confronted by variable exposure scenarios characterized by intermittent concentration peaks, our study aimed to develop methods and determine mathematical functions reproducing organic solvent concentration profiles in order to assess health risks.

METHODS

Two similar repetitive decanting tasks using either formalin or toluene (TOL) were studied at a teaching hospital pathology laboratory. Real-time air monitoring performed in the immediate vicinity of pollutant sources over a 1-year period identified intermittent concentration peaks. In order to describe these specific exposure profiles, two different methods were used. In a first descriptive approach, concentration peaks were either assimilated to an equivalent series of rectangle functions or described by a mathematical bell-shaped function. As an alternative approach, a model based on the schedule of decanting tasks was constructed. To this end, a time-varying emission function was incorporated into three deterministic exposure models of increasing complexity (well-mixed room, two-zone, spherical turbulent diffusion) and field-derived emission parameters were estimated by fitting model outputs to measured concentration profiles.

RESULTS

Real-time measurements revealed highly variable concentration profiles, consisting of 1-8 peaks ranging from 5 to 220 s per decanting task, and average concentrations within peaks varying over 1-2 orders of magnitude. Acceptable fits were obtained by both descriptive approaches. The tested emission function seemed relevant in reproducing intermittent pollutant releases. Only advanced models (two-zone and diffusion) gave satisfying fits within assigned input parameter ranges. Average emission rate estimates varied in the range 10-47 mg min(-1) for formaldehyde and 360-1780 mg min(-1) for TOL, depending on the model tested.

CONCLUSIONS

Both descriptive approaches and deterministic models accurately reproduced the patterns of measured concentration peaks. However, only deterministic models provided an understanding of the relations between pollutant releases, air movements, and the resulting concentrations and may thus be recommended for exposure variability assessment purposes.

Modelling population dynamics and response to management options in the poultry red mite Dermanyssus gallinae (Acari: Dermanyssidae)

The poultry red mite Dermanyssus gallinae is a major pest and widespread ectoparasite of laying hens and other domestic and wild birds. Under optimal conditions, D. gallinae can complete its lifecycle in less than 10 days, leading to rapid proliferation of populations in poultry systems. This paper focuses on developing a theoretical model framework to describe the population dynamics of D. gallinae. This model is then used to test the efficacy and residual effect of different control options for managing D. gallinae. As well as allowing comparison between treatment options, the model also allows comparison of treatment efficacies to different D. gallinae life stages. Three different means for controlling D. gallinae populations were subjected to the model using computer simulations: mechanical cleaning (killing once at a given time all accessible population stages), sanitary clearance (starving the mite population for a given duration, e.g. between flocks) and acaricide treatment (killing a proportion of nymphs and adults during the persistence of the treatment). Simulations showed that mechanical cleaning and sanitary clearance alone could not eradicate the model D. gallinae population, although these methods did delay population establishment. In contrast, the complete eradication of the model D. gallinae population was achieved by several successive acaricide treatments in close succession, even when a relatively low treatment level was used.

Monthly district level risk of dengue occurrences in Sakon Nakhon Province, Thailand

The paper deals with the incidence of the Dengue Virus Infection (DVI) in the 18 districts of Sakon Nakhon Province, Thailand, from January 2005 to December 2007. Using a statistical and autoregressive analysis to smooth incidence data, we have constructed yearly and monthly district level maps of the DVI distribution. It is found that the DVI incidence is very correlated with weather conditions and higher occurrences are observed in the three most populated districts Wanon Niwat, Sawang Daen Din and Mueang Sakon Nakhon, and the virus transmission period spans from mid-summer to mid-rainy seasons (from April to August). Employing a Generalized Linear Model (GLM), we found that the DVI incidences were related with current meteorological (monthly minimum temperature, past 2-month cumulated rainfall) and socio-economical (population of 0-4years old, per capita number of public small water wells, and proportion of villages with primary schools) covariates. And using the GLM under the climate change conditions (A1B scenario of IPCC), we found that the higher risk of DVI spreads from the three most populated districts to less populated ones, and the period of virus transmission increases from 5 to 9months to include part of winter, summer and rainy seasons (from March to November) during which 6%, 61% and 33% of districts will be at low, medium and high risk of DVI occurrences, respectively.

Mosquito density forecast from flooding: population dynamics model for Aedes caspius (Pallas)

Insect population dynamics depend strongly on environmental factors. For floodwater mosquitoes, meteorological conditions are crucial in the rhythm of mosquito abundances. Indeed, rainfall triggers the egg hatching after flooding breeding sites, and temperature controls the duration of the aquatic immature development up to adult emergence. According to this, we have developed a simple mechanistic and tractable model that describes the population dynamics of floodwater mosquitoes as a function only of the most accessible meteorological variables, rainfall and temperature. The model involves three parameters: development duration tdev of the immature aquatic stages, the adult emergence rate function f(t) (characterized by the emergence time scale tau and shaping the profile of adult population abundance), and the depletion rate, alpha, of adult disappearance. The developed model was subsequently applied to fit experimental field data of the dynamics of Aedes caspius (Pallas), the main pest mosquito in southern France. First, it was found that the emergence rate function of adult mosquitoes very well reproduce experimental data of the dynamics of immature development for all sampled temperatures. The estimated values of tdev and tau both exhibit Arrhenius behaviour as a function of temperature. Second, using the meteorological records of rainfall and temperature as inputs, the model correctly fit data from a two-site CO2 trapping survey conducted in 2004 and 2005. The estimated depletion rates (summation of the mortality and the emigration rates) were found to be a concave quadratic function of temperature with a maximum of 0.5 per days at about 22 degrees C.

Bayesian mapping of pulmonary tuberculosis in Antananarivo, Madagascar

Background

Tuberculosis (TB), an infectious disease caused by the Mycobacterium tuberculosis is endemic in Madagascar. The capital, Antananarivo is the most seriously affected area. TB had a non-random spatial distribution in this setting, with clustering in the poorer areas. The aim of this study was to explore this pattern further by a Bayesian approach, and to measure the associations between the spatial variation of TB risk and national control program indicators for all neighbourhoods.

Methods

Combination of a Bayesian approach and a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) was developed to produce smooth risk maps of TB and to model relationships between TB new cases and national TB control program indicators. The TB new cases were collected from records of the 16 Tuberculosis Diagnostic and Treatment Centres (DTC) of the city from 2004 to 2006. And five TB indicators were considered in the analysis: number of cases undergoing retreatment, number of patients with treatment failure and those suffering relapse after the completion of treatment, number of households with more than one case, number of patients lost to follow-up, and proximity to a DTC.

Results

In Antananarivo, 43.23% of the neighbourhoods had a standardized incidence ratio (SIR) above 1, of which 19.28% with a TB risk significantly higher than the average. Identified high TB risk areas were clustered and the distribution of TB was found to be associated mainly with the number of patients lost to follow-up (SIR: 1.10, CI 95%: 1.02-1.19) and the number of households with more than one case (SIR: 1.13, CI 95%: 1.03-1.24).

Conclusion

The spatial pattern of TB in Antananarivo and the contribution of national control program indicators to this pattern highlight the importance of the data recorded in the TB registry and the use of spatial approaches for assessing the epidemiological situation for TB. Including these variables into the model increases the reproducibility, as these data are already available for individual DTCs. These findings may also be useful for guiding decisions related to disease control strategies.

Is Culex modestus (Diptera: Culicidae), vector of West Nile virus, spreading in the Dombes area, France?

As a main vector of West Nile (WN) virus (family Flaviviridae, genus Flavivirus) in Europe, Culex modestus Ficalbi (Diptera: Culicidae) is commonly found in delta regions, lakes, and ponds. The Dombes area is located along one of the main corridors of bird migrations in France and lies 300 km north of the Camargue region, a frequent focus of WN virus circulation. It is an important breeding, wintering, and stopover site for many bird species that are putative carriers of viruses of different kinds. It is also a continental wetland with approximately =1200 fish farming ponds, scattered over the area, that provide suitable breeding sites for Cx. modestus. This article reports an entomological study based on larval surveys conducted in ponds in 2007 to assess the prevalence and abundance of Cx. modestus in the Dombes. Using the larval survey as an ecological screening test, we investigated the proportion of ponds found positive for Cx. modestus, and the relative abundance of this species was estimated in larval samples. We found that its pond distribution was more extensive in the 2007 survey than in that conducted in the 1970s. Survey methods and meteorological and anthropological factors that could account for the differences or variations between the findings of the two investigations are discussed.

Life history traits of Aedes caspius (Diptera: Culicidae): a laboratory study of larval stages

The larval survival and development times of Aedes caspius (Diptera: Culicidae) were examined in the laboratory. These life history traits were estimated using life tables constructed for two populations, one of which had been subjected to a long-term larvicide control program. Traits were evaluated for eight different population densities. The effects of population, larval stage and larval density were investigated using a general linear model. Density was positively correlated with larval survival but did not affect development time. The fourth instar and pupae had the lowest larval survival rates. First and fourth instar larvae had the longest development times. These traits were not significantly different between the two populations. The effect of larvicide control on these traits is discussed.

Survivorship characteristics of the mosquito Aedes caspius adults from southern France under laboratory conditions

The survivorship characteristics of two populations of Aedes caspius (Pallas) (Diptera: Culicidae) were compared in the laboratory. One population was sourced from Mourgues, where larvicides have been used continuously for approximately 40 years, and the other from Pont de Gau, where there has been no consistent mosquito control. The aims of the study were to ascertain the basic life history profiles of adults and to determine whether continuous larviciding affects inherent adult survivorship. Life tables were constructed to calculate the following life expectancy parameters: mean lifetime (tau(ad)); maximum lifetime (tau(max)), and daily survival rate (p(ad)). All three parameters were higher for females than for males (paired t-test, P < or = 0.001); male mean lifetime, maximum lifetime and daily survival rate were 4.95 +/- 0.94 days, 20.50 +/- 6.66 days and 0.79 +/- 0.05, respectively; female values were 14.74 +/- 3.68 days, 49.69 +/- 16.55 days and 0.93 +/- 0.02, respectively. No differences were found between the two populations, and no correlations were found between initial adult densities and their respective survival rates. The survivorship curves for Ae. caspius were type IV for males (mortality rates higher for young adults) and type III for females (mortality rates constant).