Comparing various scoring system for predicting overall survival according to treatment modalities in hepatocellular carcinoma focused on Platelet-albumin-bilirubin (PALBI) and albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade: A nationwide cohort study

Assessment of Albumin-Incorporating Scores at Hepatocellular Carcinoma Diagnosis Using Machine Learning Techniques: An Evaluation of Prognostic Relevance

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) presents high mortality rates worldwide, with limited evidence on prognostic factors at diagnosis. This study evaluates the utility of common scores incorporating albumin as predictors of mortality at HCC diagnosis using Machine Learning techniques. They are also compared to other scores and variables commonly used. A retrospective cohort study was conducted with 191 patients from Virgen de la Luz Hospital of Cuenca and University Hospital of Guadalajara. Demographic, analytical, and tumor-specific variables were included. Various Machine Learning algorithms were implemented, with eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGB) as the reference method. In the predictive model developed, the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer score was the best predictor of mortality, closely followed by the Platelet-Albumin-Bilirubin and Albumin-Bilirubin scores. Albumin levels alone also showed high relevance. Other scores, such as C-Reactive Protein/albumin and Child-Pugh performed less effectively. XGB proved to be the most accurate method across the metrics analyzed, outperforming other ML algorithms. In conclusion, the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer, Platelet-Albumin-Bilirubin and Albumin-Bilirubin scores are highly reliable for assessing survival at HCC diagnosis. The XGB-developed model proved to be the most reliable for this purpose compared to the other proposed methods.

Albumin‑bilirubin grade is an independent prognostic factor for small lung cell cancer

Albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade was first described in 2015 as an indicator of liver dysfunction in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma. ALBI grade has been reported to have prognostic value in several malignancies including non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). The present study aimed to explore the prognostic impact of ALBI grade in patients with small cell lung cancer (SCLC). It retrospectively analyzed 135 patients with SCLC treated at Hebei General Hospital between April 2015 and August 2021. Patients were divided into two groups according to the cutoff point of ALBI grade determined by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve: Group 1 with pre-treatment ALBI grade ≤-2.55 for an improved hepatic reserve and group 2 with ALBI grade >-2.55. Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analysis were performed to assess the potential prognostic factors associated with progression free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). Propensity score matching (PSM) was applied to eliminate the influence of confounding factors. PFS and OS (P<0.001) were significantly improved in group 1 compared with in group 2. Multivariate analysis revealed that sex (P=0.024), surgery (P=0.050), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH; P=0.038), chemotherapy (P=0.038) and ALBI grade (P=0.028) are independent risk factors for PFS and that surgery (P=0.013), LDH (P=0.039), chemotherapy (P=0.009) and ALBI grade (P=0.013) are independent risk factors for OS. After PSM, ALBI grade is an independent prognostic factor of PFS (P=0.039) and OS (P=0.007). It was concluded that ALBI grade was an independent prognostic factor in SCLC.

Peri-interventional LiMAx test for liver ablation - A feasibility study

BACKGROUND

Local ablation is an important treatment for liver cancer in cases of cirrhosis. Liver failure may occur after ablation, especially in advanced liver diseases. Currently, there is no standardization for peri-interventional risk assessment. The liver maximum capacity test (LiMAx) is used to assess functional liver capacity, but there is a lack of exploration of its use in this context.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to retrospectively evaluate the usefulness of peri-interventional LiMAx measurements in patients with primary or secondary liver cancer who underwent ablation treatment.

METHODS

A LiMAx test was performed at 24 hours pre- and postablation in 49 patients. Blood parameters were collected to determine liver function using MELD and ALBI scores. The results of the LiMAx test were related with these scores and to critical postintervention LiMAx values.

RESULTS

LiMAx values correlated strongly with MELD and ALBI scores before the intervention and reflected the change in liver function, as shown by an increase in scores after the intervention. Notably, LiMAx values decreased during the intervention. AUC analysis for patients at risk of reaching a critical liver level after the intervention showed a cutoff value of 186μg/kg/h.

CONCLUSIONS

The LiMAx test may be a valuable tool in liver ablation for both peri-interventional monitoring of liver function and preintervention risk assessment.

Peri-operative score for elderly patients with resectable hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Liver resection is the mainstay for a curative treatment for patients with resectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), also in elderly population. Despite this, the evaluation of patient condition, liver function and extent of disease remains a demanding process with the aim to reduce postoperative morbidity and mortality.

AIM

To identify new perioperative risk factors that could be associated with higher 90- and 180-d mortality in elderly patients eligible for liver resection for HCC considering traditional perioperative risk scores and to develop a risk score.

METHODS

A multicentric, retrospective study was performed by reviewing the medical records of patients aged 70 years or older who electively underwent liver resection for HCC; several independent variables correlated with death from all causes at 90 and 180 d were studied. The coefficients of Cox regression proportional-hazards model for six-month mortality were rounded to the nearest integer to assign risk factors' weights and derive the scoring algorithm.

RESULTS

Multivariate analysis found variables (American Society of Anesthesiology score, high rate of comorbidities, Mayo end stage liver disease score and size of biggest lesion) that had independent correlations with increased 90- and 180-d mortality. A clinical risk score was developed with survival profiles.

CONCLUSION

This score can aid in stratifying this population in order to assess who can benefit from surgical treatment in terms of postoperative mortality.

New and Old Key Players in Liver Cancer

Liver cancer represents a major health problem worldwide with growing incidence and high mortality, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) being the most frequent. Hepatocytes are likely the cellular origin of most HCCs through the accumulation of genetic alterations, although hepatic progenitor cells (HPCs) might also be candidates in specific cases, as discussed here. HCC usually develops in a context of chronic inflammation, fibrosis, and cirrhosis, although the role of fibrosis is controversial. The interplay between hepatocytes, immune cells and hepatic stellate cells is a key issue. This review summarizes critical aspects of the liver tumor microenvironment paying special attention to platelets as new key players, which exert both pro- and anti-tumor effects, determined by specific contexts and a tight regulation of platelet signaling. Additionally, the relevance of specific signaling pathways, mainly HGF/MET, EGFR and TGF-β is discussed. HGF and TGF-β are produced by different liver cells and platelets and regulate not only tumor cell fate but also HPCs, inflammation and fibrosis, these being key players in these processes. The role of C3G/RAPGEF1, required for the proper function of HGF/MET signaling in HCC and HPCs, is highlighted, due to its ability to promote HCC growth and, regulate HPC fate and platelet-mediated actions on liver cancer.

Albumin-Based Liver Reserve Models vs. MELD 3.0 in Prognostic Prediction for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients with Renal Insufficiency

The severity of liver functional reserve is an important prognostic predictor in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The albumin-bilirubin (ALBI), easy (EZ)-ALBI, platelet-albumin-bilirubin (PALBI), platelet-albumin (PAL) score, and MELD 3.0 score are used to evaluate the severity of liver dysfunction. However, their prognostic role in HCC patients, specifically with renal insufficiency (RI), is unclear. We aimed to investigate the predictive accuracy of the five models in these patients. A total of 1120 newly diagnosed HCC patients with RI were enrolled. A multivariate Cox proportional analysis was used to identify independent predictors associated with survival. In the Cox model, older age, an α-fetoprotein ≥20 ng/mL, vascular invasion, a medium and high tumor burden score, poor performance status, a higher ALBI grade, an EZ-ALBI grade, a PALBI grade, a PAL grade, and MELD 3.0 score were all independently associated with decreased overall survival (all p < 0.001). Among the five liver reserve models, the ALBI grade is the best surrogate marker to represent liver functional reserve in terms of outcome prediction. The albumin-based liver reserve models (ALBI, EZ-ALBI, PALBI, and PAL) and MELD 3.0 are all feasible prognostic markers to indicate liver injury, specifically in HCC patients with RI. Among them, the ALBI grade is the most robust tool for survival prediction in these patients.

Predictive Power of the Albumin-Bilirubin Score for Hepatotoxicity in Stereotactic Ablative Radiation Therapy for Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Assessment of liver function is crucial in predicting treatment outcomes for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This study aimed to evaluate the prognostic performance of the albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) score for predicting hepatotoxicity following stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) in HCC patients. A retrospective analysis was conducted on 123 HCC cases treated between 2018 and 2020. ALBI and Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) scores were calculated, and hepatotoxicity was defined as a post-SBRT CTP score increase ≥2. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used for comparison. The optimal cutoff value of the ALBI score was determined. Among the 121 patients analyzed, hepatotoxicity occurred in 5%. The ALBI score showed better predictive accuracy (area under the ROC curve: 0.77) than the CTP score. The optimal cutoff value of the ALBI score was -2.47, with a sensitivity of 85.7% and a specificity of 71.1%. Multivariable analysis revealed that ALBI score and PTV were significant factors for hepatotoxicity. In conclusion, the ALBI score demonstrated prognostic value for hepatotoxicity prediction after SBRT in HCC patients. Considering the ALBI score and PTV provides valuable insights for assessing hepatotoxicity risk during SBRT treatment for HCC.

A Single Centre Experience with Pre-Operative Markers in the Prediction of Outcomes after Liver Resection for Hepatocellular Carcinoma

BACKGROUND AND AIM

The C-reactive protein to albumin ratio, albumin-bilirubin index and platelet-albumin-bilirubin index have emerged as prognostic scores in hepatocellular carcinoma, although their clinical utility remains unclear, with ongoing investigation in multiple patient populations. This study aims to report survival outcomes and evaluate these indices in a cohort of patients undergoing liver resection for hepatocellular carcinoma in a tertiary Australian centre.

METHODS

This retrospective study reviewed data from the Department of Surgery at Austin Health and electronic health records (Cerner corporation). The impact of pre, intra and post-operative parameters on post-operative complications, overall and recurrence free survival were analyzed.

RESULTS

163 liver resections were performed in 157 patients between 2007 and 2020. Post-operative complications occurred in 58 patients (35.6%), with pre-operative albumin < 36.5 g/L (3.41(1.41-8.29),p = 0.007) and open liver resection (3.93(1.38-11.21),p = 0.011) demonstrating independent predictive significance. 1,3 and 5-year overall survival was 91.0%, 76.7% and 66.9% respectively, with a median survival time of 92.7 months (81.3-103.9). Hepatocellular carcinoma recurred in 95 patients (58.3%) with a median time to recurrence of 27.8 months (15.6-39.9). 1,3 and 5 year recurrence-free survival rates were 94.0%, 73.7% and 55.1% respectively. Pre-operative C-reactive protein-albumin ratio > 0.034 was significantly associated with reduced overall (4.39(1.19-16.16),p = 0.026) and recurrence-free (2.53(1.21-5.30),p = 0.014) survival.

CONCLUSION

C-reactive protein-albumin ratio > 0.034 is a strong predictor of poor prognosis following liver resection for hepatocellular carcinoma. In addition, pre-operative hypoalbuminemia was associated with post-operative complications, and future studies are required to assess the potential benefits of albumin replacement in reducing post-surgical morbidity.

Clinical Utility of Albumin Bilirubin Grade as a Prognostic Marker in Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma Undergoing Transarterial Chemoembolization: a Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

PURPOSE

Hepatic function is a key prognostic marker in patients with hepatocellular cancer (HCC) and central to patient selection for transarterial chemoembolization (TACE). We investigated the clinical utility of the Albumin-Bilirubin (ALBI) grade, an emerging prognostic model, in this heterogenous cohort via a meta-analysis of published studies.

METHODS

Publications including full text articles and abstracts regarding ALBI grade were sourced by two independent researchers from databases including PubMed, Embase, Medline and Cochrane Library. Studies analysing patients with HCC undergoing TACE treatment were systematically screened utilising the PRISMA tool for data extraction and synthesis, after exclusion of duplicates, irrelevant studies and overlapping cohorts. The primary outcome was overall survival (OS), as determined by ALBI grade and assessed by hazard ratio (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs), with analysis of collated data using comprehensive meta-analysis, version 3.0 software.

RESULTS

Eight studies were included, with a pooled population of 6538 patients with HCC that underwent TACE treatment. Higher pre-treatment grade was associated with poor OS, with median OS of 12.0 months (P < 0.001) in ALBI grade 3, compared to 33.5 months in ALBI grade 1 (P < 0.001). Significant heterogeneity within each ALBI grade was associated with age and tumour size (P < 0.001) in ALBI grades 1 and 2. In contrast, age and alcohol-related liver disease were significant in the ALBI grade 3 group (P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

High pre-treatment ALBI grade is associated with poorer prognosis in patients with HCC undergoing TACE therapy. The ALBI grade demonstrates clinical utility for clinical prognostication and patient selection for TACE.

Prognostic Significance of Serum Albumin Level and Albumin-Based Mono- and Combination Biomarkers in Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the predominant form of primary liver cancer. Although many surgical and nonsurgical therapeutic options have been established for treating HCC, the overall prognosis for HCC patients receiving different treatment modalities remains inadequate, which causes HCC to remain among the most life-threatening human cancers worldwide. Therefore, it is vitally important and urgently needed to develop valuable and independent prognostic biomarkers for the early prediction of poor prognosis in HCC patients, allowing more time for more timely and appropriate treatment to improve the survival of patients. As the most abundant protein in plasma, human serum albumin (ALB) is predominantly expressed by the liver and exhibits a wide variety of essential biological functions. It has been well recognized that serum ALB level is a significant independent biomarker for a broad spectrum of human diseases including cancer. Moreover, ALB has been commonly used as a potent biomaterial and therapeutic agent in clinical settings for the treatment of various human diseases. This review provides a comprehensive summary of the evidence from the up-to-date published literature to underscore the prognostic significance of serum ALB level and various ALB-based mono- and combination biomarkers in the prediction of the prognosis of HCC patients after treatment with different surgical, locoregional, and systemic therapies.

A Single Nucleotide Polymorphism rs1010816 Predicts Sorafenib Therapeutic Outcomes in Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Sorafenib is currently a targeted agent widely used in the treatment of advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (aHCC). However, to date there is still a lack of a reliable marker capable of predicting sorafenib therapeutic responses. Here, we conducted a genome-wide association study (GWAS) to identify candidate single-nucleotide polymorphism outcome predictors in aHCC patients. A total of 74 real-world sorafenib-treated aHCC patients were enrolled for GWAS and outcome analysis. GWAS showed that rs1010816 (p = 2.2 × 10^-7) was associated with sorafenib therapeutic response in aHCC patients. Kaplan-Meier analysis indicated that the "TT" genotype was significantly associated with a favorable therapeutic response but not significantly associated with overall survival (OS). Univariate followed by multivariate Cox proportional hazard analysis showed that ascites, main portal vein thrombosis, lower platelet count, lower total sorafenib doses, higher PALBI score in model A and higher ALBI grade in model B were significantly associated with a shorter OS. Subgroup analysis showed that only in alcoholic aHCC patients treated by sorafenib, rs1010816 "TT" genotype was significantly associated with longer OS (p = 0.021). Sorafenib had a favorable therapeutic outcome in alcoholic aHCC patients carrying rs1010816 "TT" genotype.

Nomogram Based on Platelet-Albumin-Bilirubin for Predicting Tumor Recurrence After Surgery in Alpha-Fetoprotein-Negative Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients

Purpose

In this study, we developed a nomogram based on the platelet-albumin-bilirubin (PALBI) score to predict recurrence-free survival (RFS) after curative resection in alpha-fetoprotein (AFP)-negative (≤20 ng/mL) hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients.

Patients and Methods

A total of 194 pathologically confirmed AFP-negative HCC patients were retrospectively analyzed. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed to screen the independent risk factors associated with RFS, and a nomogram prediction model for RFS was established according to the independent risk factors. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and the C-index were used to evaluate the accuracy and the efficacy of the model prediction. The correction curve was used to assess the calibration of the prediction model, and decision curve analysis was performed to evaluate the clinical application value of the prediction model.

Results

PALBI score, MVI, and tumor size were independent risk factors for postoperative tumor recurrence (P < 0.05). A nomogram prediction model based on the independent predictive factors was developed to predict RFS, and it achieved a good C-index of 0.704 with an area under the ROC curve of 0.661 and the sensitivity was 73.2%. Patients with AFP-negative HCC could be divided into the high-risk group or the low-risk group by the risk score calculated by the nomogram, and there was a significant difference in RFS between the two groups (P < 0.05). Decision curve analysis (DCA) showed that the nomogram increased the net benefit in predicting the recurrence of AFP-negative HCC and exhibited a wider range of threshold probabilities than the independent risk factors (PALBI score, MVI, and tumor size) by risk stratification.

Conclusion

The nomogram based on the PALBI score can predict RFS after curative resection in AFP-negative HCC patients and can help clinicians to screen out high-risk patients for early intervention.

Machine learning-based normal tissue complication probability model for predicting albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade increase in hepatocellular carcinoma patients

PURPOSE

The aim of this study was to develop a normal tissue complication probability model using a machine learning approach (ML-based NTCP) to predict the risk of radiation-induced liver disease in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The study population included 201 HCC patients treated with radiotherapy. The patients' medical records were retrospectively reviewed to obtain the clinical and radiotherapy data. Toxicity was defined by albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade increase. The normal liver dose-volume histogram was reduced to mean liver dose (MLD) based on the fraction size-adjusted equivalent uniform dose (2 Gy/fraction and α/β = 2). Three types of ML-based classification models were used, a penalized logistic regression (PLR), random forest (RF), and gradient-boosted tree (GBT) model. Model performance was compared using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Internal validation was performed by 5-fold cross validation and external validation was done in 44 new patients.

RESULTS

Liver toxicity occurred in 87 patients (43.1%). The best individual model was the GBT model using baseline liver function, liver volume, and MLD as inputs and the best overall model was an ensemble of the PLR and GBT models. An AUROC of 0.82 with a standard deviation of 0.06 was achieved for the internal validation. An AUROC of 0.78 with a standard deviation of 0.03 was achieved for the external validation. The behaviors of the best GBT model were also in good agreement with the domain knowledge on NTCP.

CONCLUSION

We propose the methodology to develop an ML-based NTCP model to estimate the risk of ALBI grade increase.

Nomogram established on account of Lasso-Cox regression for predicting recurrence in patients with early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma

Purpose

To investigate the risk factors for recurrence in patients with early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after minimally invasive treatment with curative intent, then to construct a prediction model based on Lasso-Cox regression and visualize the model built.

Methods

Clinical data were collected from 547 patients that received minimally invasive treatment in our hospital from January 1, 2012, to December 31, 2016. Lasso regression was used to screen risk factors for recurrence. Then we established Cox proportional hazard regression model and random survival forest model including several parameters screened by Lasso regression. An optimal model was selected by comparing the values of C-index, then the model was visualized and the nomogram was finally plotted.

Results

The variables screened by Lasso regression including age, gender, cirrhosis, tumor number, tumor size, platelet-albumin-bilirubin index (PALBI), and viral load were incorporated in the Cox model and random survival forest model (P<0.05). The C-index of these two models in the training sets was 0.729 and 0.708, and was 0.726 and 0.700 in the validation sets, respectively. So we finally chose Lasso-Cox regression model, and the calibration curve in the validation set performed well, indicating that the model built has a better predictive ability. And then a nomogram was plotted based on the model chosen to visualize the results.

Conclusions

The present study established a nomogram for predicting recurrence in patients with early-stage HCC based on the Lasso-Cox regression model. This nomogram was of some guiding significance for screening populations at high risk of recurrence after treatment, by which doctors can formulate individualized follow-up strategies or treatment protocols according to the predicted risk of relapse for patients to improve the long-term prognosis.

Prognostic Value of Platelet-Albumin-Bilirubin Grade in Child-Pugh A and B Patients With Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Meta-Analysis

Background

Numerous studies showed that preoperative platelet-albumin-bilirubin (PALBI) grade was closely related to the prognostic outcome of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, the conclusions were inconsistent. Therefore, we implemented the study to comprehensively evaluate the association between PALBI grade and prognosis in patients with HCC.

Methods

Relevant articles were collected from the specified databases until February 10, 2022. We included all studies exploring the relationship between PALBI grade and prognosis in HCC patients. We used the hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) to calculate the comprehensive analysis. All data analyses were performed using STATA 12.0.

Results

Thirteen retrospective articles containing 15534 patients were included in the meta-analysis. The pooled results displayed that the high PALBI grade was obviously correlated with poor overall survival (OS) (HR: 1.71, 95% CI: 1.46-2.02) and disease-free survival/relapse-free survival (DFS/RFS) (HR:1.31; 95% CI: 1.11–1.54). Subgroup analyses further confirmed the reliability of the comprehensive results.

Conclusions

PALBI may be a valid prognostic indicator in HCC patients. More investigations were needed to test our findings.

Developmental artificial neural network model to evaluate the preoperative safe limit of future liver remnant volume for HCC combined with clinically significant portal hypertension

Background & aims: Finding a way to comprehensively integrate the presence and grade of clinically significant portal hypertension, amount of preserved liver function and extent of hepatectomy into the guidelines for choosing appropriate candidates to hepatectomy remained challenging. This study sheds light on these issues to facilitate precise surgical decisions for clinicians. Methods: Independent risk factors associated with grade B/C post-hepatectomy liver failure were identified by stochastic forest algorithm and logistic regression in hepatitis B virus-related hepatocellular carcinoma patients. Results: The artificial neural network model was generated by integrating preoperative pre-ALB, prothrombin time, total bilirubin, AST, indocyanine green retention rate at 15 min, standard future liver remnant volume and clinically significant portal hypertension grade. In addition, stratification of patients into three risk groups emphasized significant distinctions in the risk of grade B/C post-hepatectomy liver failure. Conclusion: The authors' artificial neural network model could provide a reasonable therapeutic option for clinicians to select optimal candidates with clinically significant portal hypertension for hepatectomy and supplement the hepatocellular carcinoma surgical treatment algorithm.

Albumin-bilirubin score is superior to platelet-albumin-bilirubin score and model for end-state liver disease sodium for predicting posthepatectomy liver failure

BACKGROUND

Risk stratification for patients undergoing hepatectomy can be attempted using established models. This study compares the platelet-albumin-bilirubin (PALBI) score with albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) and model for end-stage liver disease sodium (MELD-Na) for predicting posthepatectomy liver failure (PHLF) and 30-day mortality.

METHODS

The 2014-2018 NSQIP database was queried for patients who underwent elective hepatectomy. Multivariable logistic regressions assessed associations of posthepatectomy outcomes with patient and clinical characteristics. Predictive accuracy of the grading systems was evaluated using receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves and calculating area under the curve (AUC).

RESULTS

Severe PHLF (Grade B/C) and mortality were present in 2.58% (N = 369) and 1.2% (N = 171) of patients who underwent hepatectomy (N = 13 925), respectively. ALBI Grade 2/3 had a stronger association with severe PHLF (odds ratio [OR] = 1.62, p < 0.01) and mortality (OR = 2.06, p < 0.005) than PALBI Grade 2/3 (OR = 1.14, p = 0.43 for PHLF and OR = 2.01, p < 0.005 for mortality) or MELD-Na ≥10 (OR = 1.29, p = 0.25 for PHLF and OR = 1.84, p < 0.03). ALBI had a higher AUC (0.671) than PALBI (0.625) and MELD-Na (0.627) for predicting severe PHLF. ALBI had a higher AUC (0.695) than PALBI (0.642) for predicting 30-day mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

ALBI was a more accurate predictor of severe PHLF and 30-day mortality than MELD-Na and PALBI for patients who underwent hepatectomy.

Significant association between serum Wisteria floribunda agglutinin-positive Mac-2-binding protein and prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma after surgical treatment

Serum Wisteria floribunda agglutinin-positive Mac-2 binding protein (WFA⁺-M2BP) is a novel marker for evaluating fibrosis and predicting the development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, the role of WFA⁺-M2BP in the prognosis of HCC patients after curative surgery remains unknown. In this study, we aimed to evaluate the prognostic role of serum WFA⁺-M2BP in HCC patients after curative resection and liver transplantation. We enrolled 460 HCC patients (357 resection and 103 transplantation) to analyze the risk factors for HCC recurrence and patient's survival. We employed time-to-event models using univariate and multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression analyses and calculated the hazard ratios (HRs) and adjusted HRs with their corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs). The levels of WFA⁺-M2BP were 0.19-14.51 COI (median 1.08) in patients of hepatectomy and 0.47-19.90 COI (median 6.0) in transplant patients. The levels of WFA⁺-M2BP in liver transplant patients is much higher than that of hepatectomy patients. Overall, liver fibrotic stage was positively correlated to WFA⁺-M2BP levels (P<0.0001). This study demonstrated that elevated WFA⁺-M2BP level (COI ≥0.75) was associated with a higher HCC recurrence rate in the resection group (P<0.001). Survival analysis showed that an elevated WFA⁺-M2BP level (COI ≥1.43) is associated with a higher mortality risk after surgical resection (P=0.0088) in the univariate analysis only. In liver transplant patients, WFA⁺-M2BP level (COI ≥3.81) did not predict HCC recurrence at all, but was associated poor survival after transplantation, with a borderline significance (P=0.0943). Serum WFA⁺-M2BP is a reliable marker for liver fibrosis in the present study. It is also reliable marker to predict prognosis of HCC after surgical resection. However, the prognostic role of WFA⁺-M2BP in HCC related transplants is equivocal, which is different from that of surgical resection.

Sorafenib is associated with a reduced rate of tumour growth and liver function deterioration in HCV-induced hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Sorafenib has been the standard of care for patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma and although immunotherapeutic approaches are now challenging this position, it retains an advantage in HCV-seropositive patients. We aimed to quantify the rate of tumour progression in patients receiving sorafenib and relate this figure to survival, both overall, and according to viral status.

METHODS

Using serial data from an international clinical trial we applied a joint model to combine survival and progression over time in order to estimate the rate of tumour growth as assessed by tumour burden and serum alpha-fetoprotein, and the impact of treatment on liver function.

RESULTS

High tumour burden at baseline was associated with an increased risk of death. In patients still alive at the end of the study, the progression in relation to tumour burden was very low compared to those who died within the study. Overall, the change in mean tumour burden was 0.12 mm per day or an absolute growth rate of 3.6 mm/month. Median doubling time was 665 days. For those who progressed above 0.12 mm per day or the 12% rate, median survival was 234 days compared to 384 days if the rate was below 12%. Tumour growth rate and serum alpha-fetoprotein rise were significantly lower in those who were HCV seropositive as was the rate of decline in liver function. These results were replicated in 2 independent patient groups.

CONCLUSION

Our analysis suggests that sorafenib treatment is associated with improved survival in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma mainly by decreasing the rate of tumour growth and liver function deterioration among patients with HCV infection.

LAY SUMMARY

Among patients receiving sorafenib for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma the rate of tumour growth (as assessed by changes in tumour size and the biomarker alpha-fetoprotein) and the deterioration of liver function is less in those who have the hepatitis C virus, than in those who do not.

GALAD Score Detects Early-Stage Hepatocellular Carcinoma in a European Cohort of Chronic Hepatitis B and C Patients

Despite vaccination programs and direct antiviral treatments, the incidence of virus-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remains high, while ultrasound-based detection rates for early-stage HCC is continuously low. To address this insufficiency, we set out to characterize whether the GALAD score, which incorporates gender, age, and serum levels of AFP, AFP isoform L3 (AFP-L3), and des-gamma-carboxy-prothrombin (DCP), can improve early-stage HCC detection in a Caucasian HBV/HCV cohort. In a retrospective German single-center study, 182 patients with HBV, 223 with HCV and 168 with other etiology (OE) of chronic liver disease (CLD) were enrolled. HCC was confirmed in 52 HBV, 84 HCV and 60 OE CLD patients. The diagnostic performance of the single biomarkers in HCC detection was compared to the GALAD model. At initial diagnosis, most patients were at (very) early BCLC 0 (n = 14/7%) or A (n = 56/29%) or intermediate stage BCLC B (n = 93/47%) HCC in all three subgroups. In the BCLC 0/A cohort, GALAD exhibited an AUC of 0.94 discriminating HCC from non-HCC, surpassing AFP (AUC 0.86), AFP-L3 (AUC 0.83) and DCP (AUC 0.83). In the HBV population, GALAD achieved an AUC of 0.96, in HCV an AUC of 0.98 and in OE an AUC of 0.99, clearly superior to the biomarkers alone. Furthermore, in HCV patients GALAD showed a significantly higher specificity (89%) versus AFP (64%) alone. In chronic viral hepatitis, the GALAD model showed superior performance in detection of early-stage HCC, while exhibiting higher specificity in HCV patients compared to AFP alone. We conclude that the GALAD score shows potential for HCC surveillance in Caucasian HBV/HCV patients.

A simple scoring system to estimate perioperative mortality following liver resection for primary liver malignancy-the Hepatectomy Risk Score (HeRS)

Background

Selection of the optimal treatment modality for primary liver cancers remains complex, balancing patient condition, liver function, and extent of disease. In individuals with preserved liver function, liver resection remains the primary approach for treatment with curative intent but may be associated with significant mortality. The purpose of this study was to establish a simple scoring system based on Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) and extent of resection to guide risk assessment for liver resections.

Methods

The 2005-2015 NSQIP database was queried for patients undergoing liver resection for primary liver malignancy. We first developed a model that incorporated the extent of resection (1 point for major hepatectomy) and a MELD-Na score category of low (MELD-Na =6, 1 point), medium (MELD-Na =7-10, 2 points) or high (MELD-Na >10, 3 points) with a score range of 1-4, called the Hepatic Resection Risk Score (HeRS). We tested the predictive value of this model on the dataset using logistic regression. We next developed an optimal multivariable model using backwards sequential selection of variables under logistic regression. We performed K-fold cross validation on both models. Receiver operating characteristics were plotted and the optimal sensitivity and specificity for each model were calculated to obtain positive and negative predictive values.

Results

A total of 4,510 patients were included. HeRS was associated with increased odds of 30-day mortality [HeRS =2: OR =3.23 (1.16-8.99), P=0.025; HeRS =3: OR =6.54 (2.39-17.90), P<0.001; HeRS =4: OR =13.69 (4.90-38.22), P<0.001]. The AUC for this model was 0.66. The AUC for the optimal multivariable model was higher at 0.76. Under K-fold cross validation, the positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) of these two models were similar at PPV =6.4% and NPV =97.7% for the HeRS only model and PPV =8.4% and NPV =98.1% for the optimal multivariable model.

Conclusions

The HeRS offers a simple heuristic for estimating 30-day mortality after resection of primary liver malignancy. More complicated models offer better performance but at the expense of being more difficult to integrate into clinical practice.

Development and Validation of a Nomogram Based on Noninvasive Liver Reserve and Fibrosis (PALBI and FIB-4) Model to Predict Posthepatectomy Liver Failure Grade B-C in Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Hepatectomy is currently one of the most effective treatments for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, postoperative liver failure (PHLF) is a serious complication and the leading cause of mortality in patients with HCC after hepatectomy. This study attempted to develop a novel nomogram based on noninvasive liver reserve and fibrosis models, platelet-albumin-bilirubin grade (PALBI) and fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4), able to predict PHLF grade B-C. This was a single-centre retrospective study of 574 patients with HCC undergoing hepatectomy between 2014 and 2018. The independent risk factors of PHLF were screened using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. Multivariate logistic regression was performed using the training set, and the nomogram was developed and visualised. The utility of the model was evaluated in a validation set using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. A total of 574 HCC patients were included (383 in the training set and 191 for the validation set) and included PHLF grade B-C complications of 14.8, 15.4, and 13.6%, respectively. Overall, cirrhosis (P < 0.026, OR = 2.296, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.1.02-4.786), major hepatectomy (P=0.031, OR = 2.211, 95% CI 1.077-4.542), ascites (P=0.014, OR = 3.588, 95% 1.299-9.913), intraoperative blood loss (P < 0.001, OR = 4.683, 95% CI 2.281-9.616), PALBI score >-2.53 (, OR = 3.609, 95% CI 1.486-8.764), and FIB-4 score ≥1.45 (P < 0.001, OR = 5.267, 95% CI 2.077-13.351) were identified as independent risk factors associated with PHLF grade B-C in the training set. The areas under the ROC curves for the nomogram model in predicting PHLF grade B-C were significant for both the training and validation sets (0.832 vs 0.803). The proposed nomogram predicted PHLF grade B-C among patients with HCC with a better prognostic accuracy than other currently available fibrosis and noninvasive liver reserve models.

A deep survival interpretable radiomics model of hepatocellular carcinoma patients

This work aims to identify a new radiomics signature using imaging phenotypes and clinical variables for risk prediction of overall survival (OS) in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients treated with stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT). 167 patients were retrospectively analyzed with repeated nested cross-validation to mitigate overfitting issues. 56 radiomic features were extracted from pre-treatment contrast-enhanced (CE) CT images. 37 clinical factors were obtained from patients' electronic records. Variational autoencoders (VAE) based survival models were designed for radiomics and clinical features and a convolutional neural network (CNN) survival model was used for the CECT. Finally, radiomics, clinical and raw image deep learning network (DNN) models were combined to predict the risk probability for OS. The final models yielded c-indices of 0.579 (95%CI: 0.544-0.621), 0.629 (95%CI: 0.601-0.643), 0.581 (95%CI: 0.553-0.613) and 0.650 (95%CI: 0.635-0.683) for radiomics, clinical, image input and combined models on nested cross validation scheme, respectively. Integrated gradients method was used to interpret the trained models. Our interpretability analysis of the DNN showed that the top ranked features were clinical liver function and liver exclusive of tumor radiomics features, which suggests a prominent role of side effects and toxicities in liver outside the tumor region in determining the survival rate of these patients. In summary, novel deep radiomic analysis provides improved performance for risk assessment of HCC prognosis compared with Cox survival models and may facilitate stratification of HCC patients and personalization of their treatment strategies. Liver function was found to contribute most to the OS for these HCC patients and radiomics can aid in their management.

Role of residual liver volumetry and function in prediction of liver tolerability after transarterial chemoembolization for hepatocellular carcinoma in cirrhotic patients: deriving a clinical decision support score

Background

Transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) is the recommended treatment modality for non-resectable intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma; however, this stage has wide variable levels of liver functions and tumor burden making a challenge as regards the tolerability of the functioning residual liver to this type of therapy. Further stratification of this intermediate stage may help the clinical decision for the suitability of TACE, so we tried to derive a clinical decision support tool to predict the tolerability of the functioning residual liver to TACE using pre-intervention liver reserve function and liver residual volume as well as tumor burden.

Results

Two hundred and fifty-two patients with non-resectable intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) were consecutively included in this cohort study; all patients were blindly followed up for 6 weeks after TACE for manifestation of liver decompensation. For univariate logistic regression analysis, the significant predictors were age, s.albumin, s.bilirubin, prothrombin concentration (PC), tumor volume (TV), residual liver volume (RLV), and residual to liver volumetric ratio (RLVR) (sig, 0.007, 0.000, 0.000, 0.000, 0.000, 0.002, and 0.000, respectively). Multivariate logistic regression analysis illustrated that s.albumin, s.bilirubin, PC, and RLVR were the most independent significant predictors (sig, 0.000 for all with adjusted OR 0.002, 22.692, 0.827, and 0.000, respectively). The discriminatory performance of our proposed decision support score (liver tolerability score) was evaluated using the receiver operating characteristics that identified two cutoff points (≤ 0.30 and ≥ 0.83) to rule out or rule in the possibility of liver decompensation after TACE, respectively (AUC, 0.942 and sig. 0.000). Liver tolerability score stratified the intermediate stage of HCC to 3 risk grades (low, medium, and high) with significant difference as regards hazard distribution.

Conclusion

Computed tomography image-based assessment of RLVR may have a possible role in predicting future tolerability of the functioning residual tissue to TACE of HCC. Liver tolerability score (LTS) could stratify the intermediate stage HCC to 3 risk grades, so LTS may have a role in clinical decision for the suitability of TACE for intermediate stage HCC.

Study of Serum Soluble Programmed Death Ligand 1 as a Prognostic Factor in Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Egyptian Patients

BACKGROUND

The expression of programmed cell death ligands on tumor cells has a role in the suppression of antitumor immunity, resulting in tumor immune evasion.

OBJECTIVE

In this study, we evaluated the prognostic value of the soluble form of programmed death-ligand1 (sPD-L1) in Egyptian hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients.

METHODS

This prospective cohort study was performed between November 2016 to November 2018 on 85 individuals (25 HCC patients, 25 HCC with vascular invasion and/or extrahepatic metastasis, 25 patients with liver cirrhosis, 10 healthy controls). The levels of sPD-L1 were determined in all subjects and compared in different groups and stages of cirrhosis and HCC. The association between sPD-L1 levels and overall survival (OS) was assessed.

RESULTS

Significant statistical difference in sPD-L1 was detected between different study groups. The cut-off value for normal sPD-L1 was defined by high sPD-L1 levels determined in a healthy control cohort. It was 2.522 ng/ml. In HCC patients, cut-off value was 7.42 ng/ml (sensitivity 88%, specificity 100%). In HCC with vascular invasion or metastasis, cut-off value was 9.62 ng/ml (sensitivity 88%, specificity 88%). Patients with high serum sPD-L1 or serum bilirubin concentrations had an increased risk of mortality.

CONCLUSION

High sPD-L1 level could be a possible prognostic indicator for a poor outcome in liver cirrhosis and HCC patients. The predictive value of sPD-L1 levels for a successful anti- PD1/PD-L1 therapy should be investigated in the future.

Neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio and albumin bilirubin grade in hepatocellular carcinoma: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a frequent cause of cancer related death globally. Neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and albumin bilirubin (ALBI) grade are emerging prognostic indicators in HCC.

AIM

To study published literature of NLR and ALBI over the last five years, and to validate NLR and ALBI locally in our centre as indicators of HCC survival.

METHODS

A systematic review of the published literature on PubMed of NLR and ALBI in HCC over the last five years. The search followed the guidelines of the preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses. Additionally, we also investigated HCC cases between December 2013 and December 2018 in our centre.

RESULTS

There were 54 studies describing the relation between HCC and NLR and 95 studies describing the relation between HCC and ALBI grade over the last five years. Our local cohort of patients showed NLR to have a significant negative relationship to survival (P = 0.011). There was also significant inverse relationship between the size of the largest HCC nodule and survival (P = 0.009). Median survival with alpha fetoprotein (AFP) < 10 KU/L was 20 mo and with AFP > 10 KU/L was 5 mo. We found that AFP was inversely related to survival, this relationship was not statically significant (P = 0.132). Mean survival for ALBI grade 1 was 37.7 mo, ALBI grade 2 was 13.4 months and ALBI grade 3 was 4.5 mo. ALBI grades performed better than Child Turcotte Pugh score in detecting death from HCC.

CONCLUSION

NLR and ALBI grade in HCC predict survival better than the conventional alpha fetoprotein. ALBI grade performs better than Child Turcotte Pugh score. These markers are done as part of routine clinical care and in cases of normal alpha fetoprotein, these markers could give a better understanding of the patient disease progression. NLR and ALBI grade could have a role in modified easier to learn staging and prognostic systems for HCC.

An Improved Scoring System Based on Platelet-Albumin-Bilirubin in Predicting Posthepatectomy Liver Failure Outcomes

BACKGROUND

Posthepatectomy liver failure (PHLF) is one of the major complications of liver resection that causes perioperative mortality. Accurate preoperative assessment of PHLF is of great significance to reduce the complication rate after hepatectomy and improve the survival rate.

METHODS

A retrospective study of patients who received hepatectomy from January 2016 to October 2019 at Tang Du Hospital was performed. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to compare the predictive effects of various scoring models on PHLF.

RESULTS

The area under the ROC curve of platelet-albumin-bilirubin (PALBI) score, new platelet-albumin-bilirubin (I-PALBI) score, ALBI score, and MELD score was, respectively, 0.647, 0.772, 0.677, and 0.686 (p < 0.01). The I-PALBI score was significantly better than the other scores.

CONCLUSIONS

I-PALBI score can be used as a predictive score of PHLF, and its prediction accuracy is better than other scoring systems.

Hepatocellular carcinoma, novel therapies on the horizon

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the most common primary liver cancer and is associated with high mortality rate. Incidence remains high due to the persistent prevalence of viral hepatitis, alcoholic cirrhosis, and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NFLD). Despite screening efforts, the majority of patients present with advanced disease, add to the high risk of recurrence after curative surgery. Conventional chemotherapy did not alter the nature history of advanced and metastatic HCC. The discovery of multiple tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) led to the approval of sorafenib as first efficacious therapy. A new era in the treatment paradigm of HCC is evolving. Since the advent of sorafenib as an active treatment option for patients presenting with advanced or metastatic disease, several agents have been examined. This was linked with many failures, and success stories to celebrate. Herein, we describe the historical progress and current advances of systemic therapies post-sorafenib. Lenvatinib, regorafenib, cabozantinib, ramucirumab, pembrolizumab, and nivolumab, are all presently added and available therapeutic options in the advanced setting. The evaluation of novel treatment combinations including anti-angiogenic, TKIs plus checkpoint inhibitors, add to dual checkpoint inhibitors is evolving rapidly starting with the advent of the combination of atezolizumab plus bevacizumab. Combining local and systemic therapies is being actively investigated, as an option for locally advanced disease conventionally treated with locoregional approaches. The horizon remains promising and continues to evolve for HCC a disease long considered with unmet needs.

A Novel Pre-treatment Model Predicting Risk of Developing Refractoriness to Transarterial Chemoembolization in Unresectable Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Background and aim: Refractoriness to transarterial chemoembolization is common during the therapeutic process of hepatocellular carcinoma, which is an intractable issue and may compromise the prognosis. We aim to establish a pre-treatment model to identify patients with high risks of refractoriness.

Methods: From 2010 to 2016, 824 treatment-naive patients who had initially underwent at least two sessions of transarterial chemoembolization in Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University were retrospectively enrolled. These patients were randomly allocated into a training cohort and a validation cohort. The pre-treatment scoring model was established based on the clinical and radiological variables using logistic regression and nomogram. The discrimination and calibration of the model were also evaluated.

Results: Logistic regression identified vascularization pattern, ALBI grade, serum alpha-fetoprotein level, serum γ-glutamyl transpeptidase level and major tumor size as the key parameters related to refractoriness. The p-TACE model was established using these variables (risk score range: 0-19.5). Patients were divided into six risk subgroups based on their scores (<4, ≥4, ≥7, ≥10, ≥13, ≥16). The discriminative ability, as determined by the area under receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.784 (95% confidence interval: 0.741-0.827) in the training cohort and 0.743 (95% confidence interval: 0.696-0.789) in the validation cohort. Moreover, satisfactory calibration was confirmed by Hosmer-Lemeshow test with P values of 0.767 and 0.913 in the training cohort and validation cohort.

Conclusions: This study presents a pre-treatment model to identify patients with high risks of refractoriness after transarterial chemoembolization and shed light on clinical decision making.

Combination of the gamma-glutamyltransferase-to-prealbumin ratio and other indicators may be a novel marker for predicting the prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma undergoing locoregional ablative therapies

Objective

The aim of this study was to investigate the prognostic significance of the serum γ-glutamyltransferase (γ-GT)-to-prealbumin ratio (GPR) and whether combining this ratio with other parameters can lead to an improved prognostic value for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) undergoing transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (TACE) combined with local ablation therapy.

Methods

A total of 235 HCC patients who were treated with combined therapies were retrospectively analyzed. The demographic data and clinicopathological data were collected. A fibrinogen (Fib)-GPR score of 2 was assigned to patients with elevated Fib and GPR values, and a score of 1 or 0 was assigned to patients with one or neither of these two markers, respectively. In addition, an N-score of 2 was assigned to patients with low neutrophil and high GPR values, and a score of 1 or 0 was assigned to patients with one or neither of these two markers, respectively. The optimal cutoff values and prognostic roles of GPR and other markers were identified according to the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and Youden’s index.

Results

Multiple tumors, high levels of α-fetoprotein (AFP) and Fib, as well as a high GPR, were found to be independent risk factors in recurrent patients, while multiple tumors, a low neutrophil count, and a high GPR were associated with reduced overall survival (OS) in patients with HCC who received combined therapies. Patients with a Fib-GPR score of 2 and N-GPR score of 2 had poor recurrence-free survival (RFS) and OS, respectively.

Conclusions

Fib-GPR and N-GPR scores may be helpful in predicting both recurrence and the prognosis of HCC patients, thereby assisting in the process to make a true clinical decision and optimize therapeutic options.

Individualized Ablation of Hepatocellular Carcinoma: Tailored Approaches across the Phenotype Spectrum

Ablation is now recommended by international guidelines for the definitive treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Extensive clinical studies have demonstrated outcomes comparable to surgical resection with shorter hospital stays, decreased costs, and improved quality of life. Successful ablation requires complete treatment of both tumor and margin while preserving critical adjacent structures. HCC exhibits highly variable presentations in both anatomic involvement and biology which have significant implications on choice of ablative therapy. There are now abundant ablation modalities and adjunctive techniques which can be used to individualize ablation and maximize curative results. This article provides a patient-centered summary of approaches to HCC ablation in the context of patient performance, hepatic reserve, tumor phenotype and biology, intra- and extrahepatic anatomy, and ablation technology.