Understanding patient transfers across multiple clinics in Zambia among HIV infected adults

Modeling the HIV Cascade of Care Using Routinely Collected Clinical Data to Guide Programmatic Interventions and Policy Decisions

BACKGROUND

The HIV care cascade is a framework to examine effectiveness of HIV programs and progress toward global targets to end the epidemic but has been conceptualized as a unidirectional process that ignores cyclical care patterns. We present a dynamic cascade that accounts for patient "churn" and apply novel analytic techniques to readily available clinical data to robustly estimate program outcomes and efficiently assess progress toward global targets.

METHODS

Data were assessed for 35,649 people living with HIV and receiving care at 78 clinics in East Africa between 2014 and 2020. Patients were aged ≥15 years and had ≥1 viral load measurements. We used multi-state models to estimate the probability of being in 1 of 5 states of a dynamic HIV cascade: (1) in HIV care but not on antiretroviral therapy (ART), (2) on ART, (3) virally suppressed, (4) in a gap-in-care, and (5) deceased and compared these among subgroups. To assess progress toward global targets, we summed those probabilities across patients and generated population-level proportions of patients on ART and virally suppressed in mid-2020.

RESULTS

One year after enrollment, 2.8% of patients had not initiated ART, 86.7% were receiving ART, 57.4% were virally suppressed, 10.2% were disengaged from care, and 0.3% had died. At 5 years, the proportion on ART remained steady but viral suppression increased to 77.2%. Of those aged 15-25, >20% had disengaged from care and <60% were virally suppressed. In mid-2020, 90.1% of the cohort was on ART, 90.7% of whom had suppressed virus.

CONCLUSIONS

Novel analytic approaches can characterize patient movement through a dynamic HIV cascade and, importantly, by capitalizing on readily available data from clinical cohorts, offer an efficient approach to estimate population-level proportions of patients on ART and virally suppressed. Significant progress toward global targets was observed in our cohort but challenges remain among younger patients.

Incidence of Health Facility Switching and Associations With HIV Viral Rebound Among Persons on Antiretroviral Therapy in Uganda: A Population-based Study

BACKGROUND

A substantial proportion of persons on antiretroviral therapy (ART) considered lost to follow-up have actually transferred their human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) care to other facilities. However, the relationship between facility switching and virologic outcomes, including viral rebound, is poorly understood.

METHODS

We used data from 40 communities (2015-2020) in the Rakai Community Cohort Study to estimate incidence of facility switching and viral rebound. Persons aged 15-49 years with serologically confirmed HIV who self-reported ART use and contributed ≥1 follow-up visit were included. Facility switching and virologic outcomes were assessed between 2 consecutive study visits (ie, index and follow-up visits, interval of approximately 18 months). Those who reported different HIV treatment facilities between index and follow-up study visits were classified as having switched facilities. Virologic outcomes included viral rebound among individuals initially suppressed (<200 copies/mL). Multivariable Poisson regression was used to estimate associations between facility switching and viral rebound.

RESULTS

Overall, 2257 persons who self-reported ART use (median age, 35 years; 65% female, 92% initially suppressed) contributed 3335 visit-pairs and 5959 person-years to the analysis. Facility switching was common (4.8 per 100 person-years; 95% confidence interval [CI], 4.2-5.5) and most pronounced in persons aged <30 years and fishing community residents. Among persons suppressed at their index visit (n = 2076), incidence of viral rebound was more than twice as high in persons who switched facilities (adjusted incidence rate ratio = 2.27; 95% CI, 1.16-4.45).

CONCLUSIONS

Facility switching was common and associated with viral rebound among persons initially suppressed. Investments in more agile, person-centered models for mobile clients are needed to address system inefficiencies and bottlenecks that can disrupt HIV care continuity.

Identifying longitudinal patterns of HIV treatment (dis)engagement and re-engagement from oral histories of virologically unsuppressed persons in Uganda: A thematic trajectory analysis

BACKGROUND

There is limited study of persons deemed "harder to reach" by HIV treatment services, including those discontinuing or never initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART). We conducted narrative research in southern Uganda with virologically unsuppressed persons identified through population-based sampling to discern longitudinal patterns in HIV service engagement and identify factors shaping treatment persistence.

METHODS

In mid-2022, we sampled adult participants with high-level HIV viremia (≥1000 RNA copies/mL) from the prospective, population-based Rakai Community Cohort Study. Using life history calendars, we conducted initial and follow-up in-depth interviews to elicit oral histories of participants' journeys in HIV care, from diagnosis to the present. We then used thematic trajectory analysis to identify discrete archetypes of HIV treatment engagement by "re-storying" participant narratives and visualizing HIV treatment timelines derived from interviews and abstracted clinical data.

RESULTS

Thirty-eight participants (median age: 34 years, 68% men) completed 75 interviews. We identified six HIV care engagement archetypes from narrative timelines: (1) delayed ART initiation, (2) early treatment discontinuation, (3) treatment cycling, (4) prolonged treatment interruption, (5) transfer-related care disruption, and (6) episodic viremia. Patterns of service (dis)engagement were highly gendered, occurred in the presence and absence of optimal ART adherence, and were shaped by various factors emerging at different time points, including: denial of HIV serostatus and disclosure concerns; worsening HIV-related symptoms; psychological distress and depression; social support; intimate partner violence; ART side effects; accessibility constraints during periods of mobility; incarceration; and inflexible ART dispensing regulations.

CONCLUSIONS

Identified trajectories uncovered heterogeneities in both the timing and drivers of ART (re-)initiation and (dis)continuity, demonstrating the distinct characteristics and needs of people with different patterns of HIV treatment engagement throughout the life course. Enhanced mental health service provision, expanded eligibility for differentiated service delivery models, and streamlined facility switching processes may facilitate timely (re-)engagement in HIV services.

Estimating potential silent transfer using baseline viral load measures among people presenting as new to HIV care in Lusaka, Zambia: a cross-sectional study

OBJECTIVES

To estimate potential silent transfer using baseline viral load measures among individuals presenting as new to HIV care in routine HIV clinical settings in Lusaka, Zambia.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional study.

SETTING

Two large, urban government-operated health facilities supported by the Centre for Infectious Disease Research in Zambia.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 248 participants with an incident positive HIV rapid test.

OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcome measure was HIV viral suppression at baseline (i.e., potential silent transfer), defined as having a viral load ≤1000 RNA copies(c)/mL at the time of initiating HIV care. We also examined viral suppression at ≤60 c/mL.

METHODS

We surveyed and measured baseline HIV viral load as part of the national recent infection testing algorithm among people living with HIV (PLWH) presenting as new to care. Using mixed effects Poisson regression, we identified characteristics among PLWH associated with potential silent transfer.

RESULTS

Among the 248 PLWH included, 63% were women with median age of 30, and 66 (27% (66/248)) had viral suppression at ≤1000 c/mL and 53 (21% (53/248)) at ≤60 c/mL thresholds, respectively. Participants aged 40+ years had a significantly higher adjusted prevalence of potential silent transfer (adjusted prevalence ratio (aPR): 2.10; 95% CI: 2.08, 2.13) compared with participants aged 18-24 years. Participants reporting no formal education had a significantly higher adjusted prevalence of potential silent transfer (aPR: 1.63; 95% CI: 1.52, 1.75) compared with those completing primary education. Among 57 potential silent transfers who completed a survey, 44 (77%) indicated having tested positive previously at ≥1 of 38 clinics in Zambia.

CONCLUSIONS

The high proportion of PLWH with potential silent transfer points to clinic shopping and/or co-enrolment at multiple care sites simultaneously, suggesting an opportunity to improve care continuity at the time of HIV care entry.

Cross-sectional study to assess depression among healthcare workers in Lusaka, Zambia during the COVID-19 pandemic

OBJECTIVES

We sought to assess depression among healthcare workers (HCWs) in the context of COVID-19 in Lusaka Province, Zambia.

DESIGN

This cross-sectional study is nested within a larger study, the Person-Centred Public Health for HIV Treatment in Zambia (PCPH), a cluster-randomised trial to assess HIV care and outcomes.

SETTING

The research was conducted in 24 government-run health facilities from 11 August to 15 October 2020 during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Lusaka, Zambia.

PARTICIPANTS

We used convenience sampling to recruit HCW participants who were previously enrolled in the PCPH study, had more than 6 months' experience working at the facility and were voluntarily willing to participate.

PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES

We implemented the well-validated 9-question Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9) to assess HCW depression. We used mixed-effects, adjusted Poisson regression to estimate the marginal probability of HCWs experiencing depression that may warrant intervention (PHQ-9 score ≥5) by healthcare facility.

RESULTS

We collected PHQ-9 survey responses from 713 professional and lay HCWs. Overall, 334 (46.8%, 95% CI 43.1%, 50.6%) HCWs recorded a PHQ-9 score ≥5, indicating the need for further assessment and potential intervention for depression. We identified significant heterogeneity across facilities and observed a greater proportion of HCWs with symptoms of depression in facilities providing COVID-19 testing and treatment services.

CONCLUSIONS

Depression may be a concern for a large proportion of HCWs in Zambia. Further work to understand the magnitude and aetiologies of depression among HCWs in the public sector is needed to design effective prevention and treatment interventions to meet the needs for mental health support and to minimise poor health outcomes.

Nothing about us without us: Community-based participatory research to improve HIV care for mobile patients in Kenya and Uganda

BACKGROUND

Population mobility is prevalent and complex in sub-Saharan Africa, and can disrupt HIV care and fuel onward transmission. While differentiated care models show promise for meeting the needs of mobile populations by addressing care cascade gaps, the voices of mobile populations need to be included when designing care delivery models. We assessed the unmet needs of mobile populations and engaged mobile stakeholders in the design and implementation of service delivery to improve care outcomes for mobile people living with HIV (PLHIV).

METHODS

CBPR was conducted in 12 rural communities in Kenya and Uganda participating in a mobility study within the Sustainable East Africa Research in Community Health (SEARCH) test-and-treat trial (NCT# 01864603) from 2016 to 2019. Annual gender-balanced meetings with between 17 and 33 mobile community stakeholders per meeting were conducted in local languages to gather information on mobility and its influence on HIV-related outcomes. Discussions were audio-recorded, transcribed and translated into English. Findings were shared at subsequent meetings to engage mobile stakeholders in interpretation. At year three, intervention ideas to address mobile populations' needs were elicited. After refinement, these intervention options were presented to the same communities for prioritization the following year, using a participatory ranking approach.

RESULTS

Transit hubs, trading centers, and beach sites were identified as desirable service locations. Communities prioritized mobile health 'cards' with electronic medical records and peer-delivered home-based services. Mobile health clinics, longer antiretroviral refills, and 24/7 (after service) were less desirable options. Care challenges included: lack of transfer letters to other clinics; inability to adhere to scheduled appointments, medication regimens, and monitoring of treatment outcomes while mobile amongst others.

CONCLUSIONS

Iterative discussions with mobile community stakeholders elicited communities' health priorities and identified challenges to achieving HIV care cascade outcomes. Understanding the mobility patterns and unique needs of mobile populations through responsive community engagement is critical.

Transfer of Patients on Antiretroviral Therapy Attending Primary Health Care Services in South Africa

BACKGROUND

Patients stable on antiretroviral therapy (ART) may require transfer between health care facilities to maintain continuous care, yet data on the frequency, predictors, and virologic outcomes of transfers are limited.

METHODS

Data for all viral load (VL) testing at public sector health facilities in the Western Cape Province (2011-2018) were obtained. Participant inclusion criteria were a first VL between 2011 and 2013, age >15 years at ART initiation, and >1 VL within 5 years of ART initiation, of which ≥1 was at a primary health care facility. Two successive VLs taken at different facilities indicated a transfer. We assessed predictors of transfer using generalized estimating equations with Poisson regression and the association between transfer and subsequent VL> 1000 copies/mL using generalized mixed effects.

RESULTS

Overall 84,814 participants (median age at ART initiation 34 years and 68% female) were followed up for up to 4.5 years after their first VL: 34% (n = 29,056) transferred at least once, and among these, 26% transferred twice and 11% transferred thrice or more. Female sex, age <30 years, and first VL > 1000 copies/mL were independently associated with an increased rate of transfer [adjusted rate ratio 1.24, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.21 to 1.26; 1.34, 95% CI: 1.31 to 1.36; and 1.42, 95% CI: 1.38 to 1.45, respectively]. Adjusting for age, sex, and disengagement, transfer was associated with an increased relative odds of VL > 1000 copies/mL (odds ratio 1.35, 95% CI: 1.29 to 1.42).

CONCLUSIONS

Approximately one-third of participants transferred and virologic outcomes were poor post-transfer. Stable patients who transfer may require additional support to maintain adherence.

Quantifying clinic transfers among people living with HIV in the Western Cape, South Africa: a retrospective spatial analysis

OBJECTIVES

For persons living with HIV (PLWH) in long-term care, clinic transfers are common and influence sustained engagement in HIV care, as they are associated with significant time out-of-care, low CD4 count, and unsuppressed viral load on re-entry. Despite the geospatial nature of clinic transfers, there exist limited data on the geospatial trends of clinic transfers to guide intervention development. In this study, we investigate the geospatial characteristics and trends of clinic transfers among PLWH on antiretroviral therapy (ART) in the Western Cape Province of South Africa.

DESIGN

Retrospective spatial analysis.

SETTING

PLWH who initiated ART treatment between 2012 and 2016 in South Africa's Western Cape Province were followed from ART initiation to their last visit prior to 2017. Deidentified electronic medical records from all public clinical, pharmacy, and laboratory visits in the Western Cape were linked across space and time using a unique patient identifier number.

PARTICIPANTS

4176 ART initiators in South Africa (68% women).

METHODS

We defined a clinic transfer as any switch between health facilities that occurred on different days and measured the distance between facilities using geodesic distance. We constructed network flow maps to evaluate geospatial trends in clinic transfers over time, both for individuals' first transfer and overall.

RESULTS

Two-thirds of ART initiators transferred health facilities at least once during follow-up. Median distance between all clinic transfer origins and destinations among participants was 8.6 km. Participant transfers were heavily clustered around Cape Town. There was a positive association between time on ART and clinic transfer distance, both among participants' first transfers and overall.

CONCLUSION

This study is among the first to examine geospatial trends in clinic transfers over time among PLWH. Our results make clear that clinic transfers are common and can cluster in urban areas, necessitating better integrated health information systems and HIV care.

Effects of implementing universal and rapid HIV treatment on initiation of antiretroviral therapy and retention in care in Zambia: a natural experiment using regression discontinuity

BACKGROUND

Universal testing and treatment (UTT) for all people living with HIV has only been assessed under experimental conditions in cluster-randomised trials. The public health effectiveness of UTT policies on the HIV care cascade under real-world conditions is not known. We assessed the real-world effectiveness of universal HIV treatment policies that were implemented in Zambia on Jan 1, 2017.

METHODS

We used data from Zambia's routine electronic health record system to analyse antiretroviral therapy (ART)-naive adults who newly enrolled in HIV care up to 1 year before and after the implementation of universal treatment (ie, Jan 1, 2016, to Jan 1, 2018) at 117 clinics supported by the Centre for Infectious Disease Research in Zambia. We used a regression discontinuity design to estimate the effects of implementing UTT on same-day ART initiation, ART initiation within 1 month, and retention on ART at 12 months (defined as clinic attendance 9-15 months after enrolment and at least 6 months on ART), under the assumption that patients presenting immediately before and after UTT implementation were balanced on both measured and unmeasured characteristics. We did an instrumental variable analysis to estimate the effect of same-day ART initiation under routine conditions on 12-month retention on ART.

FINDINGS

65 673 newly enrolled patients with HIV (40 858 [62·2%] female, median age 32 years [IQR 26-39], median CD4 count 287 cells per μL [IQR 147-466]) were eligible for inclusion in the analyses; 31 145 enrolled before implementation of UTT, and 34 528 enrolled after UTT. Implementation of universal treatment increased same-day ART initiation from 41·7% to 74·8% (risk difference [RD] 33·1%, 95% CI 30·5-35·7), ART initiation by 1 month from 69·6% to 87·0% (RD 17·4%, 15·5-19·3), and 12-month retention on ART from 56·2% to 63·3% (RD 7·1%, 4·3-9·9). ART initiation rates became more uniform across patient subgroups after implementation of universal treatment, but heterogeneity in 12-month retention on ART between subgroups was unchanged. Instrumental variable analyses indicated that same-day ART initiation in routine settings led to a 15·8% increase (95% CI 12·1-19·5) in 12-month retention on ART.

INTERPRETATION

UTT policies implemented in Zambia increased the rapidity and uptake of ART, as well as retention on ART at 12 months, although overall retention on ART remained suboptimal. UTT policies reduced disparities in treatment initiation, but not 12-month retention on ART. Natural experiments reveal both the anticipated and unanticipated effects of real-world implementation and indicate the need for new strategies leveraging the short-term effects of UTT to cultivate long-term treatment success.

FUNDING

National Institutes of Health.

Novel Longitudinal Methods for Assessing Retention in Care: a Synthetic Review

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Retention in care is both dynamic and longitudinal in nature, but current approaches to retention often reduce these complex histories into cross-sectional metrics that obscure the nuanced experiences of patients receiving HIV care. In this review, we discuss contemporary approaches to assessing retention in care that captures its dynamic nature and the methodological and data considerations to do so.

RECENT FINDINGS

Enhancing retention measurements either through patient tracing or "big data" approaches (including probabilistic matching) to link databases from different sources can be used to assess longitudinal retention from the perspective of the patient when they transition in and out of care and access care at different facilities. Novel longitudinal analytic approaches such as multi-state and group-based trajectory analyses are designed specifically for assessing metrics that can change over time such as retention in care. Multi-state analyses capture the transitions individuals make in between different retention states over time and provide a comprehensive depiction of longitudinal population-level outcomes. Group-based trajectory analyses can identify patient subgroups that follow distinctive retention trajectories over time and highlight the heterogeneity of retention patterns across the population. Emerging approaches to longitudinally measure retention in care provide nuanced assessments that reveal unique insights into different care gaps at different time points over an individuals' treatment. These methods help meet the needs of the current scientific agenda for retention and reveal important opportunities for developing more tailored interventions that target the varied care challenges patients may face over the course of lifelong treatment.

The revolving door of HIV care: Revising the service delivery cascade to achieve the UNAIDS 95-95-95 goals

Peter Ehrenkranz and co-authors present a cyclical cascade of care for people with HIV infection, aiming to facilitate assessment of outcomes.