Dementia risks identified by vocal features via telephone conversations: A novel machine learning prediction model

Prediction of dementia based on older adults' sleep disturbances using machine learning

BACKGROUND

The most common degenerative condition in older adults is dementia, which can be predicted using a number of indicators and whose progression can be slowed down. One of the indicators of an increased risk of dementia is sleep disturbances. This study aims to examine if machine learning can predict dementia and which sleep disturbance factors impact dementia.

METHODS

This study uses five machine learning algorithms (gradient boosting, logistic regression, gaussian naive Bayes, random forest and support vector machine) and data on the older population (60+) in Sweden from the Swedish National Study on Ageing and Care - Blekinge (n=4175). Each algorithm uses 10-fold stratified cross-validation to obtain the results, which consist of the Brier score for checking accuracy and the feature importance for examining the factors which impact dementia. The algorithms use 16 features which are on personal and sleep disturbance factors.

RESULTS

Logistic regression found an association between dementia and sleep disturbances. However, it is slight for the features in the study. Gradient boosting was the most accurate algorithm with 92.9% accuracy, 0.926 f1-score, 0.974 ROC AUC and 0.056 Brier score. The significant factors were different in each machine learning algorithm. If the person sleeps more than two hours during the day, their sex, education level, age, waking up during the night and if the person snores are the variables that most consistently have the highest feature importance in all algorithms.

CONCLUSION

There is an association between sleep disturbances and dementia, which machine learning algorithms can predict. Furthermore, the risk factors for dementia are different across the algorithms, but sleep disturbances can predict dementia.

Machine Learning Approaches for Dementia Detection Through Speech and Gait Analysis: A Systematic Literature Review

Background

Dementia is a general term for several progressive neurodegenerative disorders including Alzheimer's disease. Timely and accurate detection is crucial for early intervention. Advancements in artificial intelligence present significant potential for using machine learning to aid in early detection.

Objective

Summarize the state-of-the-art machine learning-based approaches for dementia prediction, focusing on non-invasive methods, as the burden on the patients is lower. Specifically, the analysis of gait and speech performance can offer insights into cognitive health through clinically cost-effective screening methods.

Methods

A systematic literature review was conducted following the PRISMA protocol (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses). The search was performed on three electronic databases (Scopus, Web of Science, and PubMed) to identify the relevant studies published between 2017 to 2022. A total of 40 papers were selected for review.

Results

The most common machine learning methods employed were support vector machine followed by deep learning. Studies suggested the use of multimodal approaches as they can provide comprehensive and better prediction performance. Deep learning application in gait studies is still in the early stages as few studies have applied it. Moreover, including features of whole body movement contribute to better classification accuracy. Regarding speech studies, the combination of different parameters (acoustic, linguistic, cognitive testing) produced better results.

Conclusions

The review highlights the potential of machine learning, particularly non-invasive approaches, in the early prediction of dementia. The comparable prediction accuracies of manual and automatic speech analysis indicate an imminent fully automated approach for dementia detection.

AI-based assessments of speech and language impairments in dementia

Recent advancements in the artificial intelligence (AI) domain have revolutionized the early detection of cognitive impairments associated with dementia. This has motivated clinicians to use AI-powered dementia detection systems, particularly systems developed based on individuals' and patients' speech and language, for a quick and accurate identification of patients with dementia. This paper reviews articles about developing assessment tools using machine learning and deep learning algorithms trained by vocal and textual datasets.

An explainable machine learning model of cognitive decline derived from speech

INTRODUCTION

Traditional Alzheimer's disease (AD) and mild cognitive impairment (MCI) screening lacks the sensitivity and timeliness required to detect subtle indicators of cognitive decline. Multimodal artificial intelligence technologies using only speech data promise improved detection of neurodegenerative disorders.

METHODS

Speech collected over the telephone from 91 older participants who were cognitively healthy (n = 29) or had diagnoses of AD (n = 30) or amnestic MCI (aMCI; n = 32) was analyzed with multimodal natural language and speech processing methods. An explainable ensemble decision tree classifier for the multiclass prediction of cognitive decline was created.

RESULTS

This approach was 75% accurate overall-an improvement over traditional speech-based screening tools and a unimodal language-based model. We include a dashboard for the examination of the results, allowing for novel ways of interpreting such data.

DISCUSSION

This work provides a foundation for a meaningful change in medicine as clinical translation, scalability, and user friendliness were core to the methodologies.

Highlights

Remote assessments and artificial intelligence (AI) models allow greater access to cognitive decline screening.Speech impairments differ significantly between mild AD, amnestic mild cognitive impairment (aMCI), and healthy controls.AI predictions of cognitive decline are more accurate than experts and standard tools.The AI model was 75% accurate in classifying mild AD, aMCI, and healthy controls.

Diagnostic Efficacy and Clinical Relevance of Artificial Intelligence in Detecting Cognitive Decline

Cognitive impairment is an age-associated disorder of increasing prevalence as the aging population continues to grow. Classified based on the level of cognitive decline, memory, function, and capacity to conduct activities of daily living, cognitive impairment ranges from mild cognitive impairment to dementia. When considering the insidious nature of the etiologies responsible for varying degrees of cognitive impairment, early diagnosis may provide a clinical benefit through the facilitation of early treatment. Typical diagnosis relies heavily on evaluation in a primary care setting. However, there is evidence that other diagnostic tools may aid in an earlier diagnosis of the different underlying pathologies responsible for cognitive impairment. Artificial intelligence represents a new intersecting field with healthcare that may aid in the early detection of neurodegenerative disorders. When assessing the role of AI in detecting cognitive decline, it is important to consider both the diagnostic efficacy of AI algorithms and the clinical relevance and impact of early interventions as a result of early detection. Thus, this review highlights promising investigations and developments in the space of artificial intelligence and healthcare and their potential to impact patient outcomes.

[Telephone assistance for neurological diseases: a systematic review]

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVE

While part of the care for neurological patients is done by telephone, it is not well known what neurological diseases and which part of that care is provided by telephone. Our goal is to find it out through a bibliographic review.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

References on telephone care for neurological diseases accessible through the PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane platforms have been systematically reviewed, with an unspecified start date and up to March 2022. We found 618 references, and as 219 did not pass the exclusion criteria, 399 were finally included in the review.

RESULTS

Dementia is the area of neurology with more publications about its telephone assistance. It is followed by stroke, head trauma, multiple sclerosis, Parkinson's disease and movement disorders, epilepsy, neuromuscular disorders, and others.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS

Dementias are the diseases with more bibliographic references on their telephone assistance despite not being the most prevalent. The telephone is frequently used to administer diagnostic scales or support caregivers and is particularly useful in diseases that limit mobility and attending a medical practice.

Applied Machine Learning Techniques to Diagnose Voice-Affecting Conditions and Disorders: Systematic Literature Review

BACKGROUND

Normal voice production depends on the synchronized cooperation of multiple physiological systems, which makes the voice sensitive to changes. Any systematic, neurological, and aerodigestive distortion is prone to affect voice production through reduced cognitive, pulmonary, and muscular functionality. This sensitivity inspired using voice as a biomarker to examine disorders that affect the voice. Technological improvements and emerging machine learning (ML) technologies have enabled possibilities of extracting digital vocal features from the voice for automated diagnosis and monitoring systems.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to summarize a comprehensive view of research on voice-affecting disorders that uses ML techniques for diagnosis and monitoring through voice samples where systematic conditions, nonlaryngeal aerodigestive disorders, and neurological disorders are specifically of interest.

METHODS

This systematic literature review (SLR) investigated the state of the art of voice-based diagnostic and monitoring systems with ML technologies, targeting voice-affecting disorders without direct relation to the voice box from the point of view of applied health technology. Through a comprehensive search string, studies published from 2012 to 2022 from the databases Scopus, PubMed, and Web of Science were scanned and collected for assessment. To minimize bias, retrieval of the relevant references in other studies in the field was ensured, and 2 authors assessed the collected studies. Low-quality studies were removed through a quality assessment and relevant data were extracted through summary tables for analysis. The articles were checked for similarities between author groups to prevent cumulative redundancy bias during the screening process, where only 1 article was included from the same author group.

RESULTS

In the analysis of the 145 included studies, support vector machines were the most utilized ML technique (51/145, 35.2%), with the most studied disease being Parkinson disease (PD; reported in 87/145, 60%, studies). After 2017, 16 additional voice-affecting disorders were examined, in contrast to the 3 investigated previously. Furthermore, an upsurge in the use of artificial neural network-based architectures was observed after 2017. Almost half of the included studies were published in last 2 years (2021 and 2022). A broad interest from many countries was observed. Notably, nearly one-half (n=75) of the studies relied on 10 distinct data sets, and 11/145 (7.6%) used demographic data as an input for ML models.

CONCLUSIONS

This SLR revealed considerable interest across multiple countries in using ML techniques for diagnosing and monitoring voice-affecting disorders, with PD being the most studied disorder. However, the review identified several gaps, including limited and unbalanced data set usage in studies, and a focus on diagnostic test rather than disorder-specific monitoring. Despite the limitations of being constrained by only peer-reviewed publications written in English, the SLR provides valuable insights into the current state of research on ML-based voice-affecting disorder diagnosis and monitoring and highlighting areas to address in future research.

Discrimination of mild cognitive impairment based on involuntary changes caused in voice elements

In this study, the technique associated with the capturing involuntary changes in voice elements caused by diseases is applied to diagnose them and a voice index is proposed to discriminate mild cognitive impairments. The participants in this study included 399 elderly people aged 65 years or older living in Matsumoto City, Nagano Prefecture, Japan. The participants were categorized into healthy and mild cognitive impairment groups based on clinical evaluation. It was hypothesized that as dementia progressed, task performance would become more challenging, and the effects on vocal cords and prosody would change significantly. In the study, voice samples of the participants were recorded while they were engaged in mental calculational tasks and during the reading of the results of the calculations written on paper. The change in prosody during the calculation from that during reading was expressed based on the difference in the acoustics. Principal component analysis was used to aggregate groups of voice features with similar characteristics of feature differences into several principal components. These principal components were combined with logistic regression analysis to propose a voice index to discriminate different mild cognitive impairment types. Discrimination accuracies of 90% and 65% were obtained for discriminations using the proposed index on the training and verification data (obtained from a population different from the training data), respectively. Therefore, it is suggested that the proposed index may be utilized as a means for discriminating mild cognitive impairments.

Performance of machine learning algorithms for dementia assessment: impacts of language tasks, recording media, and modalities

OBJECTIVES

Automatic speech and language assessment methods (SLAMs) can help clinicians assess speech and language impairments associated with dementia in older adults. The basis of any automatic SLAMs is a machine learning (ML) classifier that is trained on participants' speech and language. However, language tasks, recording media, and modalities impact the performance of ML classifiers. Thus, this research has focused on evaluating the effects of the above-mentioned factors on the performance of ML classifiers that can be used for dementia assessment.

METHODOLOGY

Our methodology includes the following steps: (1) Collecting speech and language datasets from patients and healthy controls; (2) Using feature engineering methods which include feature extraction methods to extract linguistic and acoustic features and feature selection methods to select most informative features; (3) Training different ML classifiers; and (4) Evaluating the performance of ML classifiers to investigate the impacts of language tasks, recording media, and modalities on dementia assessment.

RESULTS

Our results show that (1) the ML classifiers trained with the picture description language task perform better than the classifiers trained with the story recall language task; (2) the data obtained from phone-based recordings improves the performance of ML classifiers compared to data obtained from web-based recordings; and (3) the ML classifiers trained with acoustic features perform better than the classifiers trained with linguistic features.

CONCLUSION

This research demonstrates that we can improve the performance of automatic SLAMs as dementia assessment methods if we: (1) Use the picture description task to obtain participants' speech; (2) Collect participants' voices via phone-based recordings; and (3) Train ML classifiers using only acoustic features. Our proposed methodology will help future researchers to investigate the impacts of different factors on the performance of ML classifiers for assessing dementia.

Machine Learning for Dementia Prediction: A Systematic Review and Future Research Directions

Nowadays, Artificial Intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) have successfully provided automated solutions to numerous real-world problems. Healthcare is one of the most important research areas for ML researchers, with the aim of developing automated disease prediction systems. One of the disease detection problems that AI and ML researchers have focused on is dementia detection using ML methods. Numerous automated diagnostic systems based on ML techniques for early prediction of dementia have been proposed in the literature. Few systematic literature reviews (SLR) have been conducted for dementia prediction based on ML techniques in the past. However, these SLR focused on a single type of data modality for the detection of dementia. Hence, the purpose of this study is to conduct a comprehensive evaluation of ML-based automated diagnostic systems considering different types of data modalities such as images, clinical-features, and voice data. We collected the research articles from 2011 to 2022 using the keywords dementia, machine learning, feature selection, data modalities, and automated diagnostic systems. The selected articles were critically analyzed and discussed. It was observed that image data driven ML models yields promising results in terms of dementia prediction compared to other data modalities, i.e., clinical feature-based data and voice data. Furthermore, this SLR highlighted the limitations of the previously proposed automated methods for dementia and presented future directions to overcome these limitations.

Fusion of Low-Level Descriptors of Digital Voice Recordings for Dementia Assessment

Digital voice recordings can offer affordable, accessible ways to evaluate behavior and function. We assessed how combining different low-level voice descriptors can evaluate cognitive status. Using voice recordings from neuropsychological exams at the Framingham Heart Study, we developed a machine learning framework fusing spectral, prosodic, and sound quality measures early in the training cycle. The model's area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.832 (±0.034) in differentiating persons with dementia from those who had normal cognition. This offers a data-driven framework for analyzing minimally processed voice recordings for cognitive assessment, highlighting the value of digital technologies in disease detection and intervention.

Research on nonstroke dementia screening and cognitive function prediction model for older people based on brain atrophy characteristics

BACKGROUND

Brain atrophy is an important feature in dementia and is meaningful to explore a brain atrophy model to predict dementia. Using machine learning algorithm to establish a dementia model and cognitive function model based on brain atrophy characteristics is unstoppable.

METHOD

We acquired 157 dementia and 156 normal old people.s clinical information and MRI data, which contains 44 brain atrophy features, including visual scale assessment of brain atrophy and multiple linear measurement indexes and brain atrophy index. Five machine learning models were used to establish prediction models for dementia, general cognition, and subcognitive domains.

RESULTS

The extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model had the best effect in predicting dementia, with a sensitivity of 0.645, a specificity of 0.839, and the area under curve (AUC) of 0.784. In this model, the important brain atrophy features for predicting dementia were temporal horn ratio, cella media index, suprasellar cistern ratio, and the thickness of the corpus callosum genu.

CONCLUSION

For nonstroke elderly people, the machine learning model based on clinical head MRI brain atrophy features had good predictive value for dementia, general cognitive impairment, immediate memory impairment, word fluency disorder, executive dysfunction, and visualspatial disorder.

Artificial Intelligence Models in the Diagnosis of Adult-Onset Dementia Disorders: A Review

Background: The progressive aging of populations, primarily in the industrialized western world, is accompanied by the increased incidence of several non-transmittable diseases, including neurodegenerative diseases and adult-onset dementia disorders. To stimulate adequate interventions, including treatment and preventive measures, an early, accurate diagnosis is necessary. Conventional magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) represents a technique quite common for the diagnosis of neurological disorders. Increasing evidence indicates that the association of artificial intelligence (AI) approaches with MRI is particularly useful for improving the diagnostic accuracy of different dementia types. Objectives: In this work, we have systematically reviewed the characteristics of AI algorithms in the early detection of adult-onset dementia disorders, and also discussed its performance metrics. Methods: A document search was conducted with three databases, namely PubMed (Medline), Web of Science, and Scopus. The search was limited to the articles published after 2006 and in English only. The screening of the articles was performed using quality criteria based on the Newcastle–Ottawa Scale (NOS) rating. Only papers with an NOS score 7 were considered for further review. Results: The document search produced a count of 1876 articles and, because of duplication, 1195 papers were not considered. Multiple screenings were performed to assess quality criteria, which yielded 29 studies. All the selected articles were further grouped based on different attributes, including study type, type of AI model used in the identification of dementia, performance metrics, and data type. Conclusions: The most common adult-onset dementia disorders occurring were Alzheimer’s disease and vascular dementia. AI techniques associated with MRI resulted in increased diagnostic accuracy ranging from 73.3% to 99%. These findings suggest that AI should be associated with conventional MRI techniques to obtain a precise and early diagnosis of dementia disorders occurring in old age.

Deep Learning Paradigm for Cardiovascular Disease/Stroke Risk Stratification in Parkinson’s Disease Affected by COVID-19: A Narrative Review

Background and Motivation: Parkinson’s disease (PD) is one of the most serious, non-curable, and expensive to treat. Recently, machine learning (ML) has shown to be able to predict cardiovascular/stroke risk in PD patients. The presence of COVID-19 causes the ML systems to become severely non-linear and poses challenges in cardiovascular/stroke risk stratification. Further, due to comorbidity, sample size constraints, and poor scientific and clinical validation techniques, there have been no well-explained ML paradigms. Deep neural networks are powerful learning machines that generalize non-linear conditions. This study presents a novel investigation of deep learning (DL) solutions for CVD/stroke risk prediction in PD patients affected by the COVID-19 framework. Method: The PRISMA search strategy was used for the selection of 292 studies closely associated with the effect of PD on CVD risk in the COVID-19 framework. We study the hypothesis that PD in the presence of COVID-19 can cause more harm to the heart and brain than in non-COVID-19 conditions. COVID-19 lung damage severity can be used as a covariate during DL training model designs. We, therefore, propose a DL model for the estimation of, (i) COVID-19 lesions in computed tomography (CT) scans and (ii) combining the covariates of PD, COVID-19 lesions, office and laboratory arterial atherosclerotic image-based biomarkers, and medicine usage for the PD patients for the design of DL point-based models for CVD/stroke risk stratification. Results: We validated the feasibility of CVD/stroke risk stratification in PD patients in the presence of a COVID-19 environment and this was also verified. DL architectures like long short-term memory (LSTM), and recurrent neural network (RNN) were studied for CVD/stroke risk stratification showing powerful designs. Lastly, we examined the artificial intelligence bias and provided recommendations for early detection of CVD/stroke in PD patients in the presence of COVID-19. Conclusion: The DL is a very powerful tool for predicting CVD/stroke risk in PD patients affected by COVID-19.

Identifying Key MicroRNA Signatures for Neurodegenerative Diseases With Machine Learning Methods

Neurodegenerative diseases, including Alzheimer's disease (AD), Parkinson's disease, and many other disease types, cause cognitive dysfunctions such as dementia via the progressive loss of structure or function of the body's neurons. However, the etiology of these diseases remains unknown, and diagnosing less common cognitive disorders such as vascular dementia (VaD) remains a challenge. In this work, we developed a machine-leaning-based technique to distinguish between normal control (NC), AD, VaD, dementia with Lewy bodies, and mild cognitive impairment at the microRNA (miRNA) expression level. First, unnecessary miRNA features in the miRNA expression profiles were removed using the Boruta feature selection method, and the retained feature sets were sorted using minimum redundancy maximum relevance and Monte Carlo feature selection to provide two ranking feature lists. The incremental feature selection method was used to construct a series of feature subsets from these feature lists, and the random forest and PART classifiers were trained on the sample data consisting of these feature subsets. On the basis of the model performance of these classifiers with different number of features, the best feature subsets and classifiers were identified, and the classification rules were retrieved from the optimal PART classifiers. Finally, the link between candidate miRNA features, including hsa-miR-3184-5p, has-miR-6088, and has-miR-4649, and neurodegenerative diseases was confirmed using recently published research, laying the groundwork for more research on miRNAs in neurodegenerative diseases for the diagnosis of cognitive impairment and the understanding of potential pathogenic mechanisms.

Cardiovascular/Stroke Risk Stratification in Parkinson's Disease Patients Using Atherosclerosis Pathway and Artificial Intelligence Paradigm: A Systematic Review

Parkinson’s disease (PD) is a severe, incurable, and costly condition leading to heart failure. The link between PD and cardiovascular disease (CVD) is not available, leading to controversies and poor prognosis. Artificial Intelligence (AI) has already shown promise for CVD/stroke risk stratification. However, due to a lack of sample size, comorbidity, insufficient validation, clinical examination, and a lack of big data configuration, there have been no well-explained bias-free AI investigations to establish the CVD/Stroke risk stratification in the PD framework. The study has two objectives: (i) to establish a solid link between PD and CVD/stroke; and (ii) to use the AI paradigm to examine a well-defined CVD/stroke risk stratification in the PD framework. The PRISMA search strategy selected 223 studies for CVD/stroke risk, of which 54 and 44 studies were related to the link between PD-CVD, and PD-stroke, respectively, 59 studies for joint PD-CVD-Stroke framework, and 66 studies were only for the early PD diagnosis without CVD/stroke link. Sequential biological links were used for establishing the hypothesis. For AI design, PD risk factors as covariates along with CVD/stroke as the gold standard were used for predicting the CVD/stroke risk. The most fundamental cause of CVD/stroke damage due to PD is cardiac autonomic dysfunction due to neurodegeneration that leads to heart failure and its edema, and this validated our hypothesis. Finally, we present the novel AI solutions for CVD/stroke risk prediction in the PD framework. The study also recommends strategies for removing the bias in AI for CVD/stroke risk prediction using the PD framework.

Machine learning, artificial intelligence and the prediction of dementia

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Artificial intelligence and its division machine learning are emerging technologies that are increasingly applied in medicine. Artificial intelligence facilitates automatization of analytical modelling and contributes to prediction, diagnostics and treatment of diseases. This article presents an overview of the application of artificial intelligence in dementia research.

RECENT FINDINGS

Machine learning and its branch Deep Learning are widely used in research to support in diagnosis and prediction of dementia. Deep Learning models in certain tasks often result in better accuracy of detection and prediction of dementia than traditional machine learning methods, but they are more costly in terms of run times and hardware requirements. Both machine learning and Deep Learning models have their own strengths and limitations. Currently, there are few datasets with limited data available to train machine learning models. There are very few commercial applications of machine learning in medical practice to date, mostly represented by mobile applications, which include questionnaires and psychometric assessments with limited machine learning data processing.

SUMMARY

Application of machine learning technologies in detection and prediction of dementia may provide an advantage to psychiatry and neurology by promoting a better understanding of the nature of the disease and more accurate evidence-based processes that are reproducible and standardized.

Bias Investigation in Artificial Intelligence Systems for Early Detection of Parkinson's Disease: A Narrative Review

Background and Motivation: Diagnosis of Parkinson's disease (PD) is often based on medical attention and clinical signs. It is subjective and does not have a good prognosis. Artificial Intelligence (AI) has played a promising role in the diagnosis of PD. However, it introduces bias due to lack of sample size, poor validation, clinical evaluation, and lack of big data configuration. The purpose of this study is to compute the risk of bias (RoB) automatically.

METHOD

The PRISMA search strategy was adopted to select the best 39 AI studies out of 85 PD studies closely associated with early diagnosis PD. The studies were used to compute 30 AI attributes (based on 6 AI clusters), using AP(ai)Bias 1.0 (AtheroPointTM, Roseville, CA, USA), and the mean aggregate score was computed. The studies were ranked and two cutoffs (Moderate-Low (ML) and High-Moderate (MH)) were determined to segregate the studies into three bins: low-, moderate-, and high-bias.

RESULT

The ML and HM cutoffs were 3.50 and 2.33, respectively, which constituted 7, 13, and 6 for low-, moderate-, and high-bias studies. The best and worst architectures were "deep learning with sketches as outcomes" and "machine learning with Electroencephalography," respectively. We recommend (i) the usage of power analysis in big data framework, (ii) that it must undergo scientific validation using unseen AI models, and (iii) that it should be taken towards clinical evaluation for reliability and stability tests.

CONCLUSION

The AI is a vital component for the diagnosis of early PD and the recommendations must be followed to lower the RoB.

Ability of a Machine Learning Algorithm to Predict the Need for Perioperative Red Blood Cells Transfusion in Pelvic Fracture Patients: A Multicenter Cohort Study in China

Background: Predicting the perioperative requirement for red blood cells (RBCs) transfusion in patients with the pelvic fracture may be challenging. In this study, we constructed a perioperative RBCs transfusion predictive model (ternary classifications) based on a machine learning algorithm.

Materials and Methods: This study included perioperative adult patients with pelvic trauma hospitalized across six Chinese centers between September 2012 and June 2019. An extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) algorithm was used to predict the need for perioperative RBCs transfusion, with data being split into training test (80%), which was subjected to 5-fold cross-validation, and test set (20%). The ability of the predictive transfusion model was compared with blood preparation based on surgeons' experience and other predictive models, including random forest, gradient boosting decision tree, K-nearest neighbor, logistic regression, and Gaussian naïve Bayes classifier models. Data of 33 patients from one of the hospitals were prospectively collected for model validation.

Results: Among 510 patients, 192 (37.65%) have not received any perioperative RBCs transfusion, 127 (24.90%) received less-transfusion (RBCs < 4U), and 191 (37.45%) received more-transfusion (RBCs ≥ 4U). Machine learning-based transfusion predictive model produced the best performance with the accuracy of 83.34%, and Kappa coefficient of 0.7967 compared with other methods (blood preparation based on surgeons' experience with the accuracy of 65.94%, and Kappa coefficient of 0.5704; the random forest method with an accuracy of 82.35%, and Kappa coefficient of 0.7858; the gradient boosting decision tree with an accuracy of 79.41%, and Kappa coefficient of 0.7742; the K-nearest neighbor with an accuracy of 53.92%, and Kappa coefficient of 0.3341). In the prospective dataset, it also had a food performance with accuracy 81.82%.

Conclusion: This multicenter retrospective cohort study described the construction of an accurate model that could predict perioperative RBCs transfusion in patients with pelvic fractures.