Impact of physical distancing policy on reducing transmission of SARS-CoV-2 globally: Perspective from government's response and residents' compliance

Local effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on mitigation of COVID-19 spread through decreased human mobilities in Japan: a prefecture-level mediation analysis

To control the COVID-19 epidemic, the Japanese government and the local governments have repeatedly implemented non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) throughout 2020-2022. Using Bayesian state-space mediation models, we examined the effect of repeated NPIs on infection spread mitigation, mediated by human mobility changes in each prefecture during three epidemic phases: from April 1, 2020 to February 28, 2021; from March 1, 2021 to December 16, 2021; and from December 17, 2021 to December 31, 2022. In the first phase, controlling downtown populations at nighttime was effective in mitigating the infection spread in almost all prefectures. In the second and third phases, the effect was not clear, especially in metropolitan prefectures. Controlling visitors from the central prefectures of metropolitan areas was effective in mitigating infection spread in the surrounding prefectures during all phases. These results suggest that the local spread of infection can be mitigated by focusing on nighttime human mobility control in downtown areas before the epidemic spreads widely and transmission routes become more diverse, and that the geospatial spread of infection can be prevented by controlling the flows of people from large cities to other areas.

Compliance with COVID-19 Physical Distancing Mandates in Oman: The Role of Health Literacy and Internal Health Locus of Control

BACKGROUND

Research indicates that the effectiveness of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) physical distancing mandates is influenced by several individual factors, including health literacy; internal health locus of control (IHLOC), the belief that physical distancing can reduce COVID-19 risk; social norms; self-efficacy; and perceptions of the benefits and barriers associated with distancing. However, further investigation is needed to understand the links between these factors and compliance intentions.

OBJECTIVE

This study investigates the mechanism linking these factors with the intentions to comply with physical distancing mandates.

METHODS

A total of 759 participants (Mean age = 29.13, standard deviation [SD] = 8.33; 68.5% women) were surveyed online from September 2020 to October 2020. Data were analyzed using ANOVA (analysis of variance) and structural equation modeling.

KEY RESULTS

Health literacy was associated with more perceived benefits (β = .175, p = .001), greater self-efficacy (β = .193, p < .001), and less perceived barriers (β = -.391, p < .001). IHLOC was significantly associated with greater perceived benefits (β = .156, p = .007) and self-efficacy (β = .294, p < .001). Family descriptive norms were significantly associated with fewer perceived barriers (β = -.276, p < .001), while injunctive norms were associated with more perceived benefits (β = .202, p = .001) and higher self-efficacy (β = .299, p < .001). Intentions to adhere to physical distancing mandates were significantly associated with past compliance (β = .427, p < .001) and perceived barriers (β = -.205, p < .001) and benefits (β = .295, p < .001). Post-hoc mediation analyses revealed several small yet significant indirect effects, highlighting the complex pathways shaping adherence intentions.

CONCLUSIONS

This study identifies how health literacy, IHLOC, social norms, perceived benefits and barriers, and self-efficacy intricately shape intentions to comply with physical distancing mandates. These findings offer valuable implications for public health policy and interventions. [HLRP: Health Literacy Research and Practice. 2024;8(2):e69-e78.].

Compliance with World Health Organization COVID-19 preventive behaviors in rural counties in Western Kenya: a cross-sectional study

Introduction

the World Health Organization (WHO) recommended various measures to tackle COVID-19, and were adopted by many governments, targeting behavior change among citizens to lower the transmission. There was a paucity of data on the patterns of compliance with different measures within individuals and whether people adhere to all recommended measures or cautiously prefer few but not others. Understanding compliance behaviors and associated factors is important for developing interventions to increase compliance.

Methods

cross-sectional study was conducted among adults in the western region of Kenya. A sample of 806 participants was selected using a stratified sampling method. A structured questionnaire was used to gather data from the participants. Compliance was assessed with six behaviors: hand sanitation, proper hygiene, no handshaking, social distancing, and other guidelines. Latent analysis was used to identify behavioral patterns. Descriptive statistics were used to assess demographic characteristics, in terms of frequency distribution, and percentages. Multinomial logistic regression was used to assess the association between demographic characteristics and compliance level.

Results

compliance was highest for masking (85.3%), and was lowest for social distancing (60.2%). The majority of participants were found to be full compliers (class 1: 40.5%), there was an increased probability of full compliance among those aged between 18-30 years (OR= 1.042; 95% CI: 0.307-13.052, p < 0.040) compared to those aged ≥70.

Conclusion

using facemasks had the highest rate of compliance, followed by hand sanitization and proper hygiene. However, overall, the findings showed that while compliance with some protocol behaviors is high, individuals comply consistently across recommended compliance behaviors.

Evaluating the Effectiveness of School Closure in COVID-19-Related Syndromes From Community-Based Syndromic Surveillance: Longitudinal Observational Study

BACKGROUND

During the COVID-19 pandemic, a school closure policy was adopted to prevent cluster transmission in schools and subsequent household transmission. However, the effectiveness of school closure is not consistent in studies conducted in different countries.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to explore the association between school closure and the daily standardized incidence of COVID-19-related syndromes in an outpatient syndromic surveillance system.

METHODS

We calculated the incidence of COVID-19-related syndromes derived from a community-based syndromic surveillance system between the first week of January and the second or fourth weeks after school closure in 2021 and 2022 in Taipei City, Taiwan. The effect of school closure on the standardized incidence of COVID-19-related syndromes was evaluated by interrupted time series analysis using an autoregressive integrated moving average with a distributed lag function. The exogenous variables were changes in human mobility measured by Google COVID-19 community mobility reports. Furthermore, the models quantified the influence of different age groups and the hierarchy of medical facilities, such as clinics or community hospitals.

RESULTS

School closure was only negatively and significantly associated with the overall standardized incidence of COVID-19-related syndromes in 2021 for 2 weeks after the intervention (coefficient -1.24, 95% CI -2.40 to -0.08). However, in different age groups, school closure had a significantly negative association with the standardized incidence among people aged 13-18 years and ≥65 years for 2 weeks after the intervention in clinics in 2021. In community hospitals, school closure was significantly positively associated with the standardized incidence among people aged 19-24 years in 2021. In 2022, 2 weeks after the intervention, school closure had a significantly negative association with the standardized incidence among people aged 0-6, 7-12, and 19-24 years in community hospitals and aged >45 years in clinics. Furthermore, the standardized incidence was positively associated with movement change toward grocery and pharmacy stores in all age groups in 2022. In addition, movement changes toward residences were significantly positively associated with the standardized incidence among all age groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, school closure effectively suppresses COVID-19-related syndromes in students owing to the reduction of physical contact. In addition, school closure has a spillover effect on elderly people who stay at home.

Epidemiological characteristics and dynamic transmissions of COVID-19 pandemics in Chinese mainland: A trajectory clustering perspective analysis

BACKGROUND

The corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has spread to more than 210 countries and regions around the world, with different characteristics recorded depending on the location. A systematic summarization of COVID-19 outbreaks that occurred during the "dynamic zero-COVID" policy period in Chinese mainland had not been previously conducted. In-depth mining of the big data from the past two years of the COVID-19 pandemics must be performed to clarify their epidemiological characteristics and dynamic transmissions.

METHODS

Trajectory clustering was used to group epidemic and time-varying reproduction number (Rt) curves of mass outbreaks into different models and reveal the epidemiological characteristics and dynamic transmissions of COVID-19. For the selected single-peak epidemic curves, we constructed a peak-point judgment model based on the dynamic slope and adopted a single-peak fitting model to identify the key time points and peak parameters. Finally, we developed an extreme gradient boosting-based prediction model for peak infection cases based on the total number of infections on the first 3, 5, and 7 days of the initial average incubation period.

RESULTS

(1) A total of 7 52298 cases, including 587 outbreaks in 251 cities in Chinese mainland between June 11, 2020, and June 29, 2022, were collected, and the first wave of COVID-19 outbreaks was excluded. Excluding the Shanghai outbreak in 2022, the 586 remaining outbreaks resulted in 1 25425 infections, with an infection rate of 4.21 per 1 00000 individuals. The number of outbreaks varied based on location, season, and temperature. (2) Trajectory clustering analysis showed that 77 epidemic curves were divided into four patterns, which were dominated by two single-peak clustering patterns (63.3%). A total of 77 Rt curves were grouped into seven patterns, with the leading patterns including four downward dynamic transmission patterns (74.03%). These curves revealed that the interval from peak to the point where the Rt value dropped below 1 was approximately 5 days. (3) The peak-point judgment model achieved a better result in the area under the curve (0.96, 95% confidence interval = 0.90-1.00). The single-peak fitting results on the epidemic curves indicated that the interval from the slow-growth point to the sharp-decline point was approximately 4-6 days in more than 50% of mass outbreaks. (4) The peak-infection-case prediction model exhibited the superior clustering results of epidemic and Rt curves compared with the findings without grouping.

CONCLUSION

Overall, our findings suggest the variation in the infection rates during the "dynamic zero-COVID" policy period based on the geographic division, level of economic development, seasonal division, and temperature. Trajectory clustering can be a useful tool for discovering epidemiological characteristics and dynamic transmissions, judging peak points, and predicting peak infection cases using different patterns.

Effectiveness of social distancing measures and lockdowns for reducing transmission of COVID-19 in non-healthcare, community-based settings

Social distancing measures (SDMs) are community-level interventions that aim to reduce person-to-person contacts in the community. SDMs were a major part of the responses first to contain, then to mitigate, the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the community. Common SDMs included limiting the size of gatherings, closing schools and/or workplaces, implementing work-from-home arrangements, or more stringent restrictions such as lockdowns. This systematic review summarized the evidence for the effectiveness of nine SDMs. Almost all of the studies included were observational in nature, which meant that there were intrinsic risks of bias that could have been avoided were conditions randomly assigned to study participants. There were no instances where only one form of SDM had been in place in a particular setting during the study period, making it challenging to estimate the separate effect of each intervention. The more stringent SDMs such as stay-at-home orders, restrictions on mass gatherings and closures were estimated to be most effective at reducing SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Most studies included in this review suggested that combinations of SDMs successfully slowed or even stopped SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the community. However, individual effects and optimal combinations of interventions, as well as the optimal timing for particular measures, require further investigation. This article is part of the theme issue 'The effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the COVID-19 pandemic: the evidence'.

Comparing molnupiravir and nirmatrelvir/ritonavir efficacy and the effects on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in animal models

Therapeutic options against SARS-CoV-2 are underutilized. Two oral drugs, molnupiravir and paxlovid (nirmatrelvir/ritonavir), have received emergency use authorization. Initial trials suggested greater efficacy of paxlovid, but recent studies indicated comparable potency in older adults. Here, we compare both drugs in two animal models; the Roborovski dwarf hamster model for severe COVID-19-like lung infection and the ferret SARS-CoV-2 transmission model. Dwarf hamsters treated with either drug survive VOC omicron infection with equivalent lung titer reduction. Viral RNA copies in the upper respiratory tract of female ferrets receiving 1.25 mg/kg molnupiravir twice-daily are not significantly reduced, but infectious titers are lowered by >2 log orders and direct-contact transmission is stopped. Female ferrets dosed with 20 or 100 mg/kg nirmatrelvir/ritonavir twice-daily show 1-2 log order reduction of viral RNA copies and infectious titers, which correlates with low nirmatrelvir exposure in nasal turbinates. Virus replication resurges towards nirmatrelvir/ritonavir treatment end and virus transmits efficiently (20 mg/kg group) or partially (100 mg/kg group). Prophylactic treatment with 20 mg/kg nirmatrelvir/ritonavir does not prevent spread from infected ferrets, but prophylactic 5 mg/kg molnupiravir or 100 mg/kg nirmatrelvir/ritonavir block productive transmission. These data confirm reports of similar efficacy in older adults and inform on possible epidemiologic benefit of antiviral treatment.

Association between Compliance with COVID-19 Restrictions and the Risk of SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Poland

During the coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) pandemic it has become very important to comply with preventive measures. We aimed to assess compliance with applicable restrictions and to explore the links between the level of compliance and the risk of COVID-19. This cross-sectional study included Polish adults who were asked to complete a validated questionnaire. The study period was from 1 November 2020 to 31 January 2021 and a computer-assisted web interview method was chosen to perform the survey. The study involved 562 women and 539 men. COVID-19 was reported in 11.26% of participants. A good level of compliance with the sanitary restrictions was reported for 38.87% of participants, an average level of compliance for 47.96%, and a low level of compliance for 13.17%. A reduced risk of COVID-19 was associated with the following preventive measures: regular use of protective masks, social and physical distancing in public places, regular use of hand sanitizers with high ethanol content, and the use of disposable gloves in public places. Our survey revealed satisfactory public compliance with the pandemic restrictions. Sanitary and epidemiologic measures to prevent the pandemic were shown to be adequate and effective.

Prevalence and Related Factors of Depression Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Findings From the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey

BACKGROUND

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has greatly altered the daily lives of people in unprecedented ways, causing a variety of mental health problems. In this study, we aimed to evaluate the prevalence of depression among Korean adults during the COVID-19 pandemic and explore the factors associated with depressive mood using data from the Korea National Health and Nutrition Survey (KNHANES).

METHODS

We analyzed participants aged ≥ 19 years from KNHANES 2018 (n = 5,837) and 2020 (n = 5,265) to measure and compare the prevalence of depression before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Depression was defined as a score ≥ 10 on the Patient Health Questionnaire-9. Furthermore, we performed a multivariate logistic regression analysis to investigate the independent predictors of depressive mood during the COVID-19 pandemic.

RESULTS

The prevalence of depression was notably higher during the COVID-19 pandemic than in the pre-pandemic period (5.2% vs. 4.3%, P = 0.043). In a multivariate model, female sex (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.63; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.10-2.41), age < 50 years (19-29 years: aOR, 7.31; 95% CI, 2.40-22.21; 30-39 years: aOR, 7.38; 95% CI, 2.66-20.47; 40-49 years: aOR, 4.94; 95% CI, 1.84-13.31 compared to ≥ 80 years), unemployment (aOR, 2.00; 95% CI, 1.41-2.85), upper-middle class household income (aOR, 1.83; 95% CI, 1.18-2.85 compared to upper-class income), being a beneficiary of Medicaid (aOR, 2.35; 95% CI, 1.33-4.14), poor self-rated health (aOR, 4.99; 95% CI, 1.51-3.47 compared to good self-rated health), and current smoking (aOR, 2.29; 95% CI, 1.51-3.47) were found to be significant risk factors for depression during the pandemic.

CONCLUSION

Depression was significantly more prevalent among Korean adults during the COVID-19 pandemic than in the pre-pandemic era. Therefore, more attention should be paid to individuals vulnerable to depression during pandemics. Implementing psychological support public policies and developing interventions to prevent the adverse outcomes of COVID-19-related depression should be considered.

Need dissatisfaction and its consequences on support for anti-pandemic behaviors in China: The mediation of attribution and local government satisfaction, and the moderation of social class

Introduction

The COVID-19 pandemic has greatly impacted the global economy, resulting in a substantial increase in inequality. There is a need to understand need dissatisfaction in this context, its group differences, and its consequences on support for anti-pandemic behaviors.

Methods

Using data from a survey round of the Chinese Social Mentality Survey from 21 April to 26 May 2022, 6,022 participants aged between 18 and 70 years (M = 32.27; SD = 8.74; men = 46.76%) from 29 provinces of Mainland China were included in the study.

Results

1) Need dissatisfaction was negatively related with support for anti-pandemic behaviors and was completely mediated by attribution and local government satisfaction. 2) Internal/external attribution acted as a double-edged sword: they were negatively/positively related with support for anti-pandemic behaviors, while they became positively/negatively related with support for anti-pandemic behaviors via the mediation of local government satisfaction. 3) People who were unemployed and in the subjectively middle class reported higher need dissatisfaction and less support for anti-pandemic behaviors compared to their counterparts. 4) Social class moderated the relationship between need dissatisfaction and internal attribution: when needs were dissatisfied, participants with higher income and subjective social class tended to attribute more internally.

Discussion

This study contributes to the attribution theory and social identity theory in the context of major global public health events and provides practical implications for promoting behavioral compliance in the context of COVID-19. In particular, facilitating a positive interaction between the public and local governments may be helpful to create a shared identity and, ultimately, prevent and control the pandemic together.

The Apple Mobility Trends Data in Human Mobility Patterns during Restrictions and Prediction of COVID-19: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

The objective of this systematic review with PRISMA guidelines is to discover how population movement information has epidemiological implications for the spread of COVID-19. In November 2022, the Web of Science and Scopus databases were searched for relevant reports for the review. The inclusion criteria are: (1) the study uses data from Apple Mobility Trends Reports, (2) the context of the study is about COVID-19 mobility patterns, and (3) the report is published in a peer-reviewed venue in the form of an article or conference paper in English. The review included 35 studies in the period of 2020-2022. The main strategy used for data extraction in this review is a matrix proposal to present each study from a perspective of research objective and outcome, study context, country, time span, and conducted research method. We conclude by pointing out that these data are not often used in studies and it is better to study a single country instead of doing multiple-country research. We propose topic classifications for the context of the studies as transmission rate, transport policy, air quality, re-increased activities, economic activities, and financial markets.

Paxlovid-like nirmatrelvir/ritonavir fails to block SARS-CoV-2 transmission in ferrets

Despite the continued spread of SARS-CoV-2 and emergence of variants of concern (VOC) that are capable of escaping preexisting immunity, therapeutic options are underutilized. In addition to preventing severe disease in high-risk patients, antivirals may contribute to interrupting transmission chains. The FDA has granted emergency use authorizations for two oral drugs, molnupiravir and paxlovid. Initial clinical trials suggested an efficacy advantage of paxlovid, giving it a standard-of-care-like status in the United States. However, recent retrospective clinical studies suggested a more comparable efficacy of both drugs in preventing complicated disease and case-fatalities in older adults. For a direct efficacy comparison under controlled conditions, we assessed potency of both drugs against SARS-CoV-2 in two relevant animal models; the Roborovski dwarf hamster model for severe COVID-19 in high-risk patients and the ferret model of upper respiratory tract disease and transmission. After infection of dwarf hamsters with VOC omicron, paxlovid and molnupiravir were efficacious in mitigating severe disease and preventing death. However, a pharmacokinetics-confirmed human equivalent dose of paxlovid did not significantly reduce shed SARS-CoV-2 titers in ferrets and failed to block virus transmission to untreated direct-contact ferrets, whereas transmission was fully suppressed in a group of animals treated with a human-equivalent dose of molnupiravir. Prophylactic administration of molnupiravir to uninfected ferrets in direct contact with infected animals blocked productive SARS-CoV-2 transmission, whereas all contacts treated with prophylactic paxlovid became infected. These data confirm retrospective reports of similar therapeutic benefit of both drugs for older adults, and reveal that treatment with molnupiravir, but not paxlovid, may be suitable to reduce the risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission.

The impact of multi-level interventions on the second-wave SARS-CoV-2 transmission in China

Background

A re-emergence of COVID-19 occurred in the northeast of China in early 2021. Different levels of non-pharmaceutical interventions, from mass testing to city-level lockdown, were implemented to contain the transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Our study is aimed to evaluate the impact of multi-level control measures on the second-wave SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the most affected cities in China.

Methods

Five cities with over 100 reported COVID-19 cases within one month from Dec 2020 to Feb 2021 were included in our analysis. We fitted the exponential growth model to estimate basic reproduction number (R₀), and used a Bayesian approach to assess the dynamics of the time-varying reproduction number (R_t). We fitted linear regression lines on R_t estimates for comparing the decline rates of R_t across cities, and the slopes were tested by analysis of covariance. The effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) was quantified by relative R_t reduction and statistically compared by analysis of variance.

Results

A total of 2,609 COVID-19 cases were analyzed in this study. We estimated that R₀ all exceeded 1, with the highest value of 3.63 (1.36, 8.53) in Haerbin and the lowest value of 2.45 (1.44, 3.98) in Shijiazhuang. Downward trends of R_t were found in all cities, and the starting time of R_t < 1 was around the 12th day of the first local COVID-19 cases. Statistical tests on regression slopes of R_t and effect of NPIs both showed no significant difference across five cities (P = 0.126 and 0.157).

Conclusion

Timely implemented NPIs could control the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 with low-intensity measures for places where population immunity has not been established.

COVID-19 exit strategy during vaccine implementation: a balance between social distancing and herd immunity

Currently, health authorities around the world are struggling to limit the spread of COVID-19. Since the beginning of the pandemic, social distancing has been the most important strategy used by most countries to control disease spread by flattening and elongating the epidemic curve. Another strategy, herd immunity, was also applied by some countries through relaxed control measures that allow the free spread of natural infection to build up solid immunity within the population. In 2021, COVID-19 vaccination was introduced with tremendous effort as a promising strategy for limiting the spread of disease. Therefore, in this review, we present the current knowledge about social distancing, herd immunity strategies, and aspects of their implementation to control the COVID-19 pandemic in the presence of the newly developed vaccines. Finally, we suggest a short-term option for controlling the pandemic during vaccine application.

The perceptions of Brazilian postgraduate students about the impact of COVID-19 on their well-being and academic performance

This study aimed at identifying the perceptions of Brazilian postgraduate students from all over the country on the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on their academic trajectories. Data from 5985 postgraduate students were collected in the end of 2020, through a 37-item questionnaire, including multiple-choice questions, through Google Forms. The questions were divided into blocks with different proposals: personal profile, academic profile, issues related to COVID-19 infection, and issues related to mental health. Our analysis showed that 51.43% were master's degree students; 43.02% were doctorate and 5.55% were specialization students, mostly attending Biological, Health, and Human Sciences post-graduation courses (18.13%, 17.91%, and 17.38%, respectively) of different Brazilian educational institutions, including public (e.g., UFRJ) and private (e.g., PUC) federal universities as well as research institutions (e.g., Fiocruz) from all five regions of Brazil (north, south, southeast, northeast, and center Midwest). Most of them were academically impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, which also involved psychological aspects such as high levels of anxiety and depression. The results showed readjustments of research projects, and academic activities, which in some particular research fields led to the successful completion through the remote activities. However, efforts are still needed by graduate programs in order to allow greater flexibility in academic activities to fulfill all previous planning and chronograms, in addition to implementing ongoing projects to support students' mental health.

Effectiveness of controlling COVID-19 epidemic by implementing soft lockdown policy and extensive community screening in Taiwan

Strict and repeated lockdowns have caused public fatigue regarding policy compliance and had a large impact on several countries’ economies. We aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of a soft lockdown policy and the strategy of active community screening for controlling COVID-19 in Taiwan. We used village-based daily confirmed COVID-19 statistics in Taipei City and New Taipei City, between May 2, 2021, and July 17, 2021. The temporal Gi* statistic was used to compute the spatiotemporal hotspots. Simple linear regression was used to evaluate the trend of the epidemic, positivity rate from community screening, and mobility changes in COVID-19 cases and incidence before and after a level three alert in both cities. We used a Bayesian hierarchical zero-inflated Poisson model to estimate the daily infection risk. The cities accounted for 11,403 (81.17%) of 14,048 locally confirmed cases. The mean effective reproduction number (Re) surged before the level three alert and peaked on May 16, 2021, the day after the level three alert in Taipei City (Re = 3.66) and New Taipei City (Re = 3.37). Mobility reduction and a lower positive rate were positively associated with a lower number of cases and incidence. In the spatiotemporal view, seven major districts were identified with a radial spreading pattern from one hard-hit district. Villages with a higher inflow degree centrality among people aged ≥ 60 years, having confirmed cases, specific land-use types, and with a higher aging index had higher infection risks than other villages. Early soft lockdown policy and detection of infected patients showed an effective strategy to control COVID-19 in Taiwan.

Identifying as someone who avoids virus transmission strengthens physical distancing habit-behaviour relationships: A longitudinal multi-national study during the COVID-19 pandemic

Physical distancing remains an important initiative to curb COVID-19 and virus transmission more broadly. This exploratory study investigated how physical distancing behaviour changed during the COVID-19 pandemic and whether it was associated with identity with virus transmission avoidance and physical distancing habit strength. In a longitudinal, multinational study with fortnightly repeated-assessments, associations and moderation effects were considered for both overall (person-level means) and occasion-specific deviations in habit and identity. Participants (N = 586, M age = 42, 79% female) self-reported physical distancing behavioural frequency, physical distancing habit strength, and identity with avoiding virus transmission. Physical distancing followed a cubic trajectory, with initial high engagement decreasing rapidly before increasing again near study end. Physical distancing was associated with both overall and occasion-specific virus transmission avoidant identity and physical distancing habit strength. People with strong virus transmission avoidant identity engaged in physical distancing frequently regardless of fluctuations in habit strength. However, for those with weaker virus transmission avoidant identity, physical distancing was strongly aligned with fluctuations in habit strength. To enhance engagement in physical distancing, public health messaging might fruitfully target greater or more salient virus-transmission avoidance identity and stronger physical distancing habit.

Animal-vehicle collisions during the COVID-19 lockdown in early 2020 in the Krakow metropolitan region, Poland

The interrelations between human activity and animal populations are of increasing interest due to the emergence of the novel COVID-19 and the consequent pandemic across the world. Anthropogenic impacts of the pandemic on animals in urban-suburban environments are largely unknown. In this study, the temporal and spatial patterns of urban animal response to the COVID-19 lockdown were assessed using animal-vehicle collisions (AVC) data. We collected AVC data over two 6-month periods in 2019 and 2020 (January to June) from the largest metropolis in southern Poland, which included lockdown months. Furthermore, we used traffic data to understand the impact of lockdown on AVC in the urban area. Our analysis of 1063 AVC incidents revealed that COVID-19 related lockdown decreased AVC rates in suburban areas. However, in the urban area, even though traffic volume had significantly reduced, AVC did not decrease significantly, suggesting that lockdown did not influence the collision rates in the urban area. Our results suggest that there is a need to focus on understanding the effects of changes in traffic volume on both human behaviour and wildlife space use on the resulting impacts on AVC in the urban area.

Associations between components of household expenditures and the rate of change in the number of new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Japan: Time-series analysis

Background

Social distancing measures to prevent the spread of COVID-19 included restrictions on retail services in many countries. In some countries, the governments also subsidized consumer spending on part of retail services to help struggling businesses. To evaluate the costs and benefits of government interventions in retail services, it is necessary to measure the infectiousness of each type of consumer activity.

Methods

This study regresses the log difference over seven days in the number of new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Japan on lagged values of household expenditures per household on eating out, traveling, admissions to entertainment facilities, clothing and footwear, and the other items, as well as a measure of mobility in public transportation in the past 14 days. The sample period of the dependent variable is set from March 1, 2020, to February 1, 2021, in order to avoid a possible structural break due to the spread of mutant strains in 2021. The regression model is estimated by the Bayesian method with a non-informative (improper) prior. The estimated model is evaluated by out-of-sample forecast performance from February 2, 2021, onward.

Results

The out-of-sample forecasts of the regression by the posterior means of regression coefficients perform well before the spread of the Delta variant in Japan since June 2021. R² for the out-of-sample forecasts from February 2, 2021, to June 30, 2021, is 0.60. The dependent variable of the regression overshot the out-of-sample forecasts from mid-June to August 2021. Then, the out-of-sample forecasts overpredicted the dependent variable for the rest of 2021.

Conclusion

The estimated model can be potentially useful in simulating changes in the number of new confirmed cases due to household spending on retail services, if it can be adjusted to real-time developments of mutant strains and vaccinations. Such simulations would help in designing cost-efficient government interventions.

A combined model for COVID-19 pandemic control: The application of Haddon's matrix and community risk reduction tools combined

INTRODUCTION

To mitigate morbidity, mortality, and impacts of COVID-19 on health, it was essential to implement a comprehensive framework for COVID-19 control and prevention. A well-recognized tool from the field of injury prevention known as the Haddon matrix was utilized. The matrix states that any accident is affected by the host, agent, and environment. Another well-recognized tool used by the national fire protection association known as the Community risk reduction tool (CRR). The (CRR) tool utilizes the Five E's of Community Risk Reduction.

AIM OF THE STUDY

To describe the risk factors that increase the susceptibility and the severity of COVID-19 infection based on the Haddon matrix and the proposed prevention strategies by the CRR tool by using the combined model.

METHODOLOGY

We reviewed the literature to assess known factors contributing to COVID-19 susceptibility, infection, and severity of infection. We then used the Haddon matrix to structure, separating human factors from technical and environmental details and timing. We then used the community risk reduction (CRR) model to set all responses and control measures for each element obtained from the Haddon matrix tool. Subsequently, we incorporated both tools to develop the combined model.

CONCLUSION

we proposed and implemented a combined model that utilizes the CRR model as the systematic strategy for the more theoretical framework of Haddon's matrix. Combining both models was practical and helpful in planning the preparedness and control of the COVID-19 pandemic in Saudi Arabia that can be generalized to national and international levels.

Extreme Precipitation Events and Infectious Disease Risk: A Scoping Review and Framework for Infectious Respiratory Viruses

Extreme precipitation events (EPE) change the natural and built environments and alter human behavior in ways that facilitate infectious disease transmission. EPEs are expected with high confidence to increase in frequency and are thus of great public health importance. This scoping review seeks to summarize the mechanisms and severity of impacts of EPEs on infectious diseases, to provide a conceptual framework for the influence of EPEs on infectious respiratory diseases, and to define areas of future study currently lacking in this field. The effects of EPEs are well-studied with respect to enteric, vector-borne, and allergic illness where they are shown to moderately increase risk of illness, but not well-understood in relation to infectious respiratory illness. We propose a framework for a similar influence of EPEs on infectious respiratory viruses through several plausible pathways: decreased UV radiation, increased ambient relative humidity, and changes to human behavior (increased time indoors and use of heating and cooling systems). However, limited work has evaluated meteorologic risk factors for infectious respiratory diseases. Future research is needed to evaluate the effects of EPEs on infectious respiratory diseases using individual-level case surveillance, fine spatial scales, and lag periods suited to the incubation periods of the disease under study, as well as a full characterization of susceptible, vulnerable, and sensitive population characteristics.