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Duval D, Evans B, Sanders A, Hill J, Simbo A, Kavoi T, Lyell I, Simmons Z, Qureshi M, Pearce-Smith N, Arevalo CR, Beck CR, Bindra R, Oliver I. Non-pharmaceutical interventions to reduce COVID-19 transmission in the UK: a rapid mapping review and interactive evidence gap map. J Public Health (Oxf) 2024; 46:e279-e293. [PMID: 38426578 PMCID: PMC11141784 DOI: 10.1093/pubmed/fdae025] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/16/2023] [Revised: 01/15/2024] [Accepted: 01/23/2024] [Indexed: 03/02/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were crucial in the response to the COVID-19 pandemic, although uncertainties about their effectiveness remain. This work aimed to better understand the evidence generated during the pandemic on the effectiveness of NPIs implemented in the UK. METHODS We conducted a rapid mapping review (search date: 1 March 2023) to identify primary studies reporting on the effectiveness of NPIs to reduce COVID-19 transmission. Included studies were displayed in an interactive evidence gap map. RESULTS After removal of duplicates, 11 752 records were screened. Of these, 151 were included, including 100 modelling studies but only 2 randomized controlled trials and 10 longitudinal observational studies.Most studies reported on NPIs to identify and isolate those who are or may become infectious, and on NPIs to reduce the number of contacts. There was an evidence gap for hand and respiratory hygiene, ventilation and cleaning. CONCLUSIONS Our findings show that despite the large number of studies published, there is still a lack of robust evaluations of the NPIs implemented in the UK. There is a need to build evaluation into the design and implementation of public health interventions and policies from the start of any future pandemic or other public health emergency.
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Affiliation(s)
- D Duval
- Research, Evidence and Knowledge Division, UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA), London E14 5EA, UK
| | - B Evans
- Research, Evidence and Knowledge Division, UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA), London E14 5EA, UK
| | - A Sanders
- Research, Evidence and Knowledge Division, UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA), London E14 5EA, UK
| | - J Hill
- Clinical and Public Health Response Division, UKHSA, London E14 5EA, UK
| | - A Simbo
- Evaluation and Epidemiological Science Division, UKHSA, Colindale NW9 5EQ, UK
| | - T Kavoi
- Cheshire and Merseyside Health Protection Team, UKHSA, Liverpool L3 1DS, UK
| | - I Lyell
- Greater Manchester Health Protection Team, UKHSA, Manchester M1 3BN, UK
| | - Z Simmons
- Research, Evidence and Knowledge Division, UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA), London E14 5EA, UK
| | - M Qureshi
- Clinical and Public Health Response Division, UKHSA, London E14 5EA, UK
| | - N Pearce-Smith
- Research, Evidence and Knowledge Division, UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA), London E14 5EA, UK
| | - C R Arevalo
- Research, Evidence and Knowledge Division, UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA), London E14 5EA, UK
| | - C R Beck
- Evaluation and Epidemiological Science Division, UKHSA, Salisbury SP4 0JG, UK
| | - R Bindra
- Clinical and Public Health Response Division, UKHSA, London E14 5EA, UK
| | - I Oliver
- Director General Science and Research and Chief Scientific Officer, UKHSA, London E14 5EA, UK
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2
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Han K, Lee B, Lee D, Heo G, Oh J, Lee S, Apio C, Park T. Forecasting the spread of COVID-19 based on policy, vaccination, and Omicron data. Sci Rep 2024; 14:9962. [PMID: 38693172 PMCID: PMC11063074 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-58835-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/13/2023] [Accepted: 04/03/2024] [Indexed: 05/03/2024] Open
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic caused by the novel SARS-COV-2 virus poses a great risk to the world. During the COVID-19 pandemic, observing and forecasting several important indicators of the epidemic (like new confirmed cases, new cases in intensive care unit, and new deaths for each day) helped prepare the appropriate response (e.g., creating additional intensive care unit beds, and implementing strict interventions). Various predictive models and predictor variables have been used to forecast these indicators. However, the impact of prediction models and predictor variables on forecasting performance has not been systematically well analyzed. Here, we compared the forecasting performance using a linear mixed model in terms of prediction models (mathematical, statistical, and AI/machine learning models) and predictor variables (vaccination rate, stringency index, and Omicron variant rate) for seven selected countries with the highest vaccination rates. We decided on our best models based on the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and analyzed the significance of each predictor. Simple models were preferred. The selection of the best prediction models and the use of Omicron variant rate were considered essential in improving prediction accuracies. For the test data period before Omicron variant emergence, the selection of the best models was the most significant factor in improving prediction accuracy. For the test period after Omicron emergence, Omicron variant rate use was considered essential in deciding forecasting accuracy. For prediction models, ARIMA, lightGBM, and TSGLM generally performed well in both test periods. Linear mixed models with country as a random effect has proven that the choice of prediction models and the use of Omicron data was significant in determining forecasting accuracies for the highly vaccinated countries. Relatively simple models, fit with either prediction model or Omicron data, produced best results in enhancing forecasting accuracies with test data.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kyulhee Han
- Interdisciplinary Program of Bioinformatics, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Bogyeom Lee
- Department of Industrial Engineering, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Doeun Lee
- Interdisciplinary Program of Bioinformatics, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Gyujin Heo
- Interdisciplinary Program of Bioinformatics, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Jooha Oh
- Ross School of Business, University of Michigan-Ann Arbor, Ann Arbor, MI, United States
| | - Seoyoung Lee
- College of Humanities, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Catherine Apio
- Interdisciplinary Program of Bioinformatics, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Taesung Park
- Ross School of Business, University of Michigan-Ann Arbor, Ann Arbor, MI, United States.
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Dupuy J, Barnay T, Defebvre E. Clear as a bell? Policy stringency and elderly health during Covid-19. Soc Sci Med 2024; 349:116878. [PMID: 38636159 DOI: 10.1016/j.socscimed.2024.116878] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/25/2023] [Revised: 03/29/2024] [Accepted: 04/09/2024] [Indexed: 04/20/2024]
Abstract
This paper investigates how restriction policies have impacted elderly self-assessed health (SAH) in Europe during the pandemic, and how the Covid-19 infection interacts with policy stringency to modulate the SAH deterioration. Using the Survey of Health, Aging and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) between October 2019 and August 2021, including 9,034 adults aged 50 years and above, alongside with a stringency index from the Oxford's Coronavirus Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT), we design both an adjusted probit model and a recursive bivariate probit model to test for endogeneity of Covid-19 infection. Estimations results show a bell curve between stringency and SAH degradation: a deleterious effect of restrictions at low levels of stringency up to a tipping point after which more stringent policies become protective. Covid-19 infection moderates this association. Depending on individuals' initial health, the effect of restrictions is uneven: highly stringent policies become damaging for individuals most likely to enter a vulnerabilization path, for whom the bell curve is thus inverted. Overall, this study shows clear patterns of association between policy stringency and perceived health among older Europeans, and highlights the potential trade-off between targeting as many people as possible, those in poor health or those on the edge of vulnerability.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jules Dupuy
- ERUDITE, Université Paris-Est Créteil, Créteil, France; ENS Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France.
| | - Thomas Barnay
- ERUDITE, Université Paris-Est Créteil, Créteil, France; Department of Economics, Northeastern University, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Eric Defebvre
- ERUDITE, Université Paris-Est Créteil, Créteil, France; Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, Université Paris 1, Panthéon-Sorbonne, France
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4
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Welt FGP, Pereira SJ. TAVR and COVID-19: History We Should Not Be Doomed to Repeat. JACC Cardiovasc Interv 2024; 17:388-390. [PMID: 38180425 DOI: 10.1016/j.jcin.2023.11.004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/02/2023] [Accepted: 11/06/2023] [Indexed: 01/06/2024]
Affiliation(s)
| | - Sara J Pereira
- Division of Cardiothoracic Surgery, Department of Surgery, University of Utah Health, Salt Lake City, Utah, USA
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5
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Kyaw MH, Spinardi JR, Jagun O, Franco Villalobos C, Kapetanakis V, Sharf-Williams R, Yarnoff B. Descriptive analysis to assess seasonal patterns of COVID-19 and influenza in low-income and middle-income countries in Asia, the Middle East and Latin America. BMJ Open 2024; 14:e081019. [PMID: 38296298 PMCID: PMC10831443 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2023-081019] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/17/2023] [Accepted: 01/22/2024] [Indexed: 02/03/2024] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVES Understanding disease seasonality can help predict the occurrence of outbreaks and inform public health planning. Respiratory diseases typically follow seasonal patterns; however, knowledge regarding the seasonality of COVID-19 and its impact on the seasonality of influenza remains limited. The objective of this study was to provide more evidence to understand the circulation of SARS-CoV-2, the virus responsible for COVID-19, in an endemic scenario to guide potential preventive strategies. DESIGN In this study, a descriptive analysis was undertaken to describe seasonality trends and/or overlap between COVID-19 and influenza in 12 low-income and middle-income countries using Our World in Data and FluMart data sources. Plots of COVID-19 and influenza cases were analysed. SETTING Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, the Philippines, Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, Morocco, Bahrain, Qatar and Saudi Arabia. OUTCOME MEASURES COVID-19 cases and influenza cases. RESULTS No seasonal patterns of SARS-CoV-2 or SARS-CoV-2/influenza cocirculation were observed in most countries, even when considering the avian influenza pandemic period. CONCLUSIONS These results can inform public health strategies. The lack of observed seasonal behaviour highlights the importance of maintaining year-round vaccination rather than implementing seasonal campaigns. Further research investigating the influence of climate conditions, social behaviour and year-round preventive measures could be fundamental for shaping appropriate policies related to COVID-19 and respiratory viral disease control in low-income and middle-income countries as COVID-19 variant data and epidemiologic patterns accrue over time.
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6
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Ma MZ, Chen SX, Wang X. Looking beyond vaccines: Cultural tightness-looseness moderates the relationship between immunization coverage and disease prevention vigilance. Appl Psychol Health Well Being 2023. [PMID: 38105555 DOI: 10.1111/aphw.12519] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/31/2023] [Accepted: 12/02/2023] [Indexed: 12/19/2023]
Abstract
Advancements in vaccination technologies mitigate disease transmission risks but may inadvertently suppress the behavioral immune system, an evolved disease avoidance mechanism. Applying behavioral immune system theory and utilizing robust big data analytics, we examined associations between rising vaccination coverage and government policies, public mobility, and online information seeking regarding disease precautions. We tested whether cultural tightness-looseness moderates the relationship between mass immunization and disease prevention vigilance. Comprehensive time series analyses were conducted using American data (Study 1) and international data (Study 2), employing transfer function modeling, cross-correlation function analysis, and meta-regression analysis. Across both the US and global analyses, as vaccination rates rose over time, government COVID-19 restrictions significantly relaxed, community mobility increased, and online searches for prevention information declined. The relationship between higher vaccination rates and lower disease prevention vigilance was stronger in culturally looser contexts. Results provide initial evidence that mass immunization may be associated with attenuated sensitivity and enhanced flexibility of disease avoidance psychology and actions. However, cultural tightness-looseness significantly moderates this relationship, with tighter cultures displaying sustained vigilance amidst immunization upticks. These findings offer valuable perspectives to inform nuanced policymaking and public health strategies that balance prudent precautions against undue alarm when expanding vaccine coverage worldwide.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mac Zewei Ma
- Department of Applied Social Sciences, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hung Hom, Kowloon, Hong Kong
| | - Sylvia Xiaohua Chen
- Department of Applied Social Sciences, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hung Hom, Kowloon, Hong Kong
| | - Xijing Wang
- Department of Social and Behavioural Sciences, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon, Hong Kong
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7
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Dash DP, Sethi N. Pandemics, economy and health in Asia-A scenario of post 2020. MethodsX 2023; 11:102347. [PMID: 37693655 PMCID: PMC10491638 DOI: 10.1016/j.mex.2023.102347] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/15/2022] [Accepted: 08/24/2023] [Indexed: 09/12/2023] Open
Abstract
Utilizing a daily data of 29 Asian Economies from June 2021 to June 2022, this study investigates the impacts of economic growth, health infrastructures and Government measures on COVID-19 cases. Our results demonstrate that GDP, Government intervention, testing and vaccination exert positive impacts on COVID-19 cases. We incorporate factors like weather to know how temperature impacts COVID-19 Cases. Our results demonstrate that magnitude of COVID-19 cases goes on upward fashion in winter days more. With reference to co-morbid conditions like diabetes, we notice that people with diabetes are more vulnerable to the infections, however due to the greater behavioral response, we obtain a negative association between co-morbid conditions and new COVID-19 cases. However, the intensity of COVID-19 cases is decimated with the improvement in health facilities and behavioral changes. Besides basic regression estimates, our instrumental variable estimates hold true in the line of regression results while underlying the relation with the COVID-19 cases. Interestingly, our results from alternate specification ensures that high human development with greater openness has resulted in more COVID-19 cases. Overall, our study belies the fact that vaccination and higher govt intervention can prevent COVID-19. Rather, a comprehensive policy is recommended on cross-country basis to overcome such challenge.•The Study analyzes the relation among COVID-19, economic growth and health infrastructure on a daily basis from June 2021 to June 2022 for 29 Asian Economies•Our empirical strategy involves regression followed by robustness tests of instrumental variable regression model.•Results show that higher growth, human development, lesser vaccination and trivial govt intervention post 2020 have resulted in more COVID-19 cases.
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Affiliation(s)
- Devi Prasad Dash
- School of Management and Entrepreneurship, Indian Institute of Technology, Jodhpur, Rajasthan, India
| | - Narayan Sethi
- Department of Humanities and Social Sciences, National Institute of Technology, Rourkela, Odisha, India
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8
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Van Haute M, Agagon A, Gumapac FF, Anticuando MA, Coronel DN, David MC, Davocol DA, Din EJ, Grey CA, Lee YH, Muyot MB, Ragasa CL, Shao G, Tamaña CA, Uy TS, De Silos J. Determinants of differences in RT-PCR testing rates among Southeast Asian countries during the first six months of the COVID-19 pandemic. PLOS GLOBAL PUBLIC HEALTH 2023; 3:e0002593. [PMID: 37934719 PMCID: PMC10629619 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pgph.0002593] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/03/2023] [Accepted: 10/16/2023] [Indexed: 11/09/2023]
Abstract
A positive correlation has been demonstrated between gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and COVID-19 tests per 1000 people. Although frequently used as an indicator of economic performance, GDP per capita does not directly reflect income distribution inequalities and imposed health costs. In this longitudinal ecological study, we aimed to determine if, besides GDP per capita, indicators relating to governance, public health measures enforcement, and health and research investment explain differences in RT-PCR testing rates among countries in Southeast Asia (SEA) during the first six months of the COVID-19 pandemic. Using open-access COVID-19 panel data, we estimated the effect of various indicators (GDP per capita, health expenditure per capita, number of researchers per one million population, corruption perceptions index, stringency index, regional authority index) on daily COVID-19 testing by performing fixed-effects negative binomial regression. After accounting for all indicators, the number of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases, and population density, the model provided a 2019 GDP per capita coefficient of 0.0046330 (95% CI: 0.0040171, 0.0052488; p <0.001), indicating that a rise in 2019 GDP per capita by 100 international dollars is associated with a 46.33% increase in the number of daily tests performed. Additionally, all indicators were significantly associated with the daily number of RT-PCR testing on multivariable analysis. In conclusion, we identified different country-level indicators significantly associated with differences in COVID-19 testing rates among SEA countries. Due to the study's ecological design, we caution on applying our results to the individual level given potential for systematic differences between the included countries. Additional investigation is likewise needed to understand how government expenditure on healthcare may have impacted COVID-19 testing capacity during the initial stages of the pandemic.
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Affiliation(s)
- Michael Van Haute
- College of Medicine, De La Salle Medical and Health Sciences Institute, City of Dasmariñas, Cavite, Philippines
| | - Alexandra Agagon
- College of Medicine, De La Salle Medical and Health Sciences Institute, City of Dasmariñas, Cavite, Philippines
| | - Franz Froilan Gumapac
- College of Medicine, De La Salle Medical and Health Sciences Institute, City of Dasmariñas, Cavite, Philippines
| | - Marie Abigail Anticuando
- College of Medicine, De La Salle Medical and Health Sciences Institute, City of Dasmariñas, Cavite, Philippines
| | - Dianne Nicole Coronel
- College of Medicine, De La Salle Medical and Health Sciences Institute, City of Dasmariñas, Cavite, Philippines
| | - Mary Coleen David
- College of Medicine, De La Salle Medical and Health Sciences Institute, City of Dasmariñas, Cavite, Philippines
| | - Dan Ardie Davocol
- College of Medicine, De La Salle Medical and Health Sciences Institute, City of Dasmariñas, Cavite, Philippines
| | - Eunice Jairah Din
- College of Medicine, De La Salle Medical and Health Sciences Institute, City of Dasmariñas, Cavite, Philippines
| | - Carlos Alfonso Grey
- College of Medicine, De La Salle Medical and Health Sciences Institute, City of Dasmariñas, Cavite, Philippines
| | - Young Hee Lee
- College of Medicine, De La Salle Medical and Health Sciences Institute, City of Dasmariñas, Cavite, Philippines
| | - Marvin Bryan Muyot
- College of Medicine, De La Salle Medical and Health Sciences Institute, City of Dasmariñas, Cavite, Philippines
| | - Charissma Leiah Ragasa
- College of Medicine, De La Salle Medical and Health Sciences Institute, City of Dasmariñas, Cavite, Philippines
| | - Genesis Shao
- College of Medicine, De La Salle Medical and Health Sciences Institute, City of Dasmariñas, Cavite, Philippines
| | - Cailin Adrienne Tamaña
- College of Medicine, De La Salle Medical and Health Sciences Institute, City of Dasmariñas, Cavite, Philippines
| | - Trixia Scholastica Uy
- College of Medicine, De La Salle Medical and Health Sciences Institute, City of Dasmariñas, Cavite, Philippines
| | - Jeriel De Silos
- College of Medicine, De La Salle Medical and Health Sciences Institute, City of Dasmariñas, Cavite, Philippines
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9
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Scheunemann A, Moolla A, Mongwenyana C, Mkize N, Rassool M, Jezile V, Evans D. The lived experiences of tuberculosis survivors during the COVID-19 pandemic and government lockdown in South Africa: a qualitative analysis. BMC Public Health 2023; 23:1729. [PMID: 37670253 PMCID: PMC10481461 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-023-16657-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/25/2023] [Accepted: 08/30/2023] [Indexed: 09/07/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Tuberculosis (TB) is a major health concern in South Africa, where prior to COVID-19 it was associated with more deaths than any other infectious disease. The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted gains made in the global response to TB, having a serious impact on the most vulnerable. COVID-19 and TB are both severe respiratory infections, where infection with one places individuals at increased risk for negative health outcomes for the other. Even after completing TB treatment, TB survivors remain economically vulnerable and continue to be negatively affected by TB. METHODS This cross-sectional qualitative study, which was part of a larger longitudinal study in South Africa, explored how TB survivors' experienced the COVID-19 pandemic and government restrictions. Participants were identified through purposive sampling and were recruited and interviewed at a large public hospital in Gauteng. Data were analyzed thematically, using a constructivist research paradigm and both inductive and deductive codebook development. RESULTS Participants (n = 11) were adults (24-74 years of age; more than half male or foreign nationals) who had successfully completed treatment for pulmonary TB in the past two years. Participants were generally found to be physically, socioeconomically, and emotionally vulnerable, with the COVID-19 pandemic exacerbating or causing a recurrence of many of the same stressors they had faced with TB. Coping strategies during COVID similarly mirrored those used during TB diagnosis and treatment, including social support, financial resources, distraction, spirituality, and inner strength. CONCLUSIONS Implications and suggestions for future directions include fostering and maintaining a strong network of social support for TB survivors.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ann Scheunemann
- Health Economics and Epidemiology Research Office, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa.
- Department of Psychiatry, Boston Medical Center, Boston, MA, USA.
- TH Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA.
| | - Aneesa Moolla
- Health Economics and Epidemiology Research Office, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Constance Mongwenyana
- Health Economics and Epidemiology Research Office, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Neliswe Mkize
- School of Public Health, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Mohammed Rassool
- Clinical HIV Research Unit, Helen Joseph Hospital, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Vuyokazi Jezile
- Clinical HIV Research Unit, Helen Joseph Hospital, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Denise Evans
- Health Economics and Epidemiology Research Office, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
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10
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Cameron-Blake E, Annan H, Marro L, Michaud D, Sawatzky J, Tatlow H. Variation in the stringency of COVID-19 public health measures on self-reported health, stress, and overall wellbeing in Canada. Sci Rep 2023; 13:13094. [PMID: 37567870 PMCID: PMC10421886 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-39004-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/19/2022] [Accepted: 07/18/2023] [Indexed: 08/13/2023] Open
Abstract
Evidence is building regarding the association between government implemented public health measures aimed at combating COVID-19 and their impacts on health. This study investigated the relationship between the stringency of public health measures implemented in Canada and self-reported mental health, physical health, stress, and wellbeing among a random sample of 6647 Canadians 18 years of age and older. The analysis was based on self-reported health data from the Canadian Perspectives on Environmental Noise Survey. This data was combined with the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker database, which included overall stringency index (SI), and four of its sub-components, i.e., school and business closures, restrictions on gatherings, and stay at home policies. Adjusted multivariate logistic regression models indicated that the magnitude of the overall SI was associated with higher or lower odds of reporting worse physical health, mental health, stress and/or overall wellbeing, depending on the measure evaluated. Similarly, policy directed at the four sub-components had varying impacts on the odds of reporting worse health, depending on the sub-component, the strength of the policy restriction, and the health outcome evaluated. The association between the strength of the public health measures and self-reported health, and how this may inform future policy, is discussed.
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Affiliation(s)
- Emily Cameron-Blake
- Blavatnik School of Government, University of Oxford, Radcliffe Observatory Quarter, Woodstock Road, Oxford, OX2 6GG, UK.
- School of Social and Political Science, University of Edinburgh, 15a George Square, Edinburgh, EH8 9LD, UK.
| | - Henry Annan
- Faculty of Medicine, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, Canada
- IWK Health, Halifax, NS, Canada
| | - Leonora Marro
- Health Canada, Environmental and Radiation Health Sciences Directorate, Environmental Health Science and Research Bureau, Biostatistics Section, 251 Sir Frederick Banting Driveway, Tunney's Pasture, Ottawa, ON, K1A0K9, Canada
| | - David Michaud
- Health Canada, Environmental and Radiation Health Sciences Directorate, Consumer and Clinical Radiation Protection Bureau, 775 Brookfield Road, Ottawa, ON, K1A 1C1, Canada
| | - Julia Sawatzky
- Faculty of Medicine and Dentistry, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Canada
| | - Helen Tatlow
- Blavatnik School of Government, University of Oxford, Radcliffe Observatory Quarter, Woodstock Road, Oxford, OX2 6GG, UK
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11
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Scheunemann A, Moolla A, Mongwenyana C, Mkize N, Rassool M, Jezile V, Evans D. The lived experiences of Tuberculosis survivors during the COVID-19 pandemic and government lockdown in South Africa: a qualitative analysis. RESEARCH SQUARE 2023:rs.3.rs-2857896. [PMID: 37205375 PMCID: PMC10187427 DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-2857896/v1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/21/2023]
Abstract
Background Tuberculosis (TB) is a major health concern in South Africa, where prior to COVID-19 it was associated with more deaths than any other infectious disease. The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted gains made in the global response to TB, having a serious impact on the most vulnerable. COVID-19 and TB are both severe respiratory infections, where infection with the one place individuals at increased risk for negative health outcomes for the other. Even after completing TB treatment, TB survivors remain economically vulnerable and continue to be negatively affected by TB. Methods This cross-sectional qualitative study, which was part of a larger longitudinal study in South Africa, explored how TB survivors' experienced the COVID-19 pandemic and government restrictions. Participants were identified through purposive sampling and were recruited and interviewed at a large public hospital in Gauteng. Data were analyzed thematically, using a constructivist research paradigm and both inductive and deductive codebook development. Results Participants (n = 11) were adults (24-74 years of age; more than half male or foreign nationals) who had successfully completed treatment for pulmonary TB in the past two years. Participants were generally found to be physically, socioeconomically, and emotionally vulnerable, with the COVID-19 pandemic exacerbating or causing a recurrence of many of the same stressors they had faced with TB. Coping strategies during COVID similarly mirrored those used during TB diagnosis and treatment, including social support, financial resources, distraction, spirituality, and inner strength. Conclusions Implications and suggestions for future directions include fostering and maintaining a strong network of social support for TB survivors.
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12
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Masrani AS, Nik Husain NR, Musa KI, Moraga P, Ismail MT. The Changing Trend of Paediatric Emergency Department Visits in Malaysia Following the COVID-19 Pandemic. Cureus 2023; 15:e36512. [PMID: 36968682 PMCID: PMC10038692 DOI: 10.7759/cureus.36512] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 03/22/2023] [Indexed: 03/29/2023] Open
Abstract
Background The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has impacted the emergency department (ED) due to the surge in medical demand and changes in the characteristics of paediatric visits. Additionally, the trend for paediatric ED visits has decreased globally, secondary to implementing lockdowns to stop the spread of COVID-19. We aim to study the trend and characteristics of paediatric ED visits following Malaysia's primary timeline of the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods and materials A five-year time series observational study of paediatric ED patients from two tertiary hospitals in Malaysia was conducted from March 17, 2017 (week 11 2017) to March 17, 2022 (week 12 2022). Aggregated weekly data were analysed using R statistical software version 4.2.2 (R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria) against significant events during the COVID-19 pandemic to detect influential changepoints in the trend. The data collected were the number of ED visits, triage severity, visit outcomes and ED discharge diagnosis. Results Overall, 175,737 paediatric ED visits were recorded with a median age of three years and predominantly males (56.8%). A 57.57% (p<0.00) reduction in the average weekly ED visits was observed during the Movement Control Order (MCO) period. Despite the increase in the proportion of urgent (odds ratio (OR): 1.23, p<0.00) and emergent or life-threatening (OR: 1.79, p<0.00) cases, the proportion of admissions decreased. Whilst the changepoints during the MCO indicated a rise in respiratory, fever or other infectious diseases, or gastrointestinal conditions, diagnosis of complications originating from the perinatal period declined from July 19, 2021 (week 29 2021). Conclusion The incongruent change in disease severity and hospital admission reflects the potential effects of the healthcare system reform and socioeconomic impact as the pandemic evolves. Future studies on parental motivation to seek emergency medical attention may provide insight into the timing and choice of healthcare service utilisation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Afiqah Syamimi Masrani
- Department of Community Medicine, School of Medical Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia, Kota Bharu, MYS
| | - Nik Rosmawati Nik Husain
- Department of Community Medicine, School of Medical Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia, Kota Bharu, MYS
| | - Kamarul Imran Musa
- Department of Community Medicine, School of Medical Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia, Kota Bharu, MYS
| | - Paula Moraga
- Division of Computer, Electrical and Mathematical Science and Engineering, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Thuwal, SAU
| | - Mohd Tahir Ismail
- School of Mathematical Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia, Pulau Pinang, MYS
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Haider N, Hasan MN, Guitian J, Khan RA, McCoy D, Ntoumi F, Dar O, Ansumana R, Uddin MJ, Zumla A, Kock RA. The disproportionate case-fatality ratio of COVID-19 between countries with the highest vaccination rates and the rest of the world. IJID REGIONS 2023; 6:159-166. [PMID: 36721772 PMCID: PMC9881127 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijregi.2023.01.011] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/08/2022] [Revised: 01/16/2023] [Accepted: 01/21/2023] [Indexed: 01/27/2023]
Abstract
Objectives The global reported cumulative case-fatality ratios (rCFRs) and excess mortality rates of the 20 countries with the highest coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination rates, the rest of the world and Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) were compared before and after the commencement of vaccination programmes. Methods A time series model was used to understand the trend of rCFR over time, and a generalized linear mixed model was used to understand the effect of vaccination on rCFR. Results By 31 December 2022, an average of 260.3 doses of COVID-19 vaccine per 100 population had been administered in the top 20 vaccinated countries, compared with 152.1 doses in the rest of the world and 51.2 doses in SSA. The mean rCFR of COVID-19 had decreased by 69.0% in the top 20 vaccinated countries, 26.5% in the rest of the world and 7.6% in SSA. Excess mortality had decreased by 48.7% in the top 20 vaccinated countries, compared with 62.5% in the rest of the world and 60.7% in SSA. In a generalized linear mixed model, the reported number of vaccine doses administered (/100 population) (odds ratio 0.64) was associated with a steeper reduction in COVID-19 rCFR. Conclusions Vaccine equity and faster roll-out across the world is critically important in reducing COVID-19 transmission and CFR.
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Affiliation(s)
- Najmul Haider
- The Royal Veterinary College, University of London, Hatfield, UK
- School of Life Sciences, Keele University, Keele, UK
- Corresponding authors. Address: School of Life Sciences, Keele University, Keele ST5 5BG, UK.
| | - Mohammad Nayeem Hasan
- Department of Statistics, Shahjalal University of Science and Technology, Sylhet, Bangladesh
| | - Javier Guitian
- The Royal Veterinary College, University of London, Hatfield, UK
| | - Rumi A. Khan
- Division of Pulmonary Critical Care Medicine, Dell Medical School at University of Texas, Austin, Texas, USA
| | - David McCoy
- Institute of Population Health Sciences, Barts and London Medical and Dental School, Queen Mary University of London, London, UK
| | - Francine Ntoumi
- Congolese Foundation for Medical Research, Brazzaville, Republic of Congo
- Institute for Tropical Medicine, University of Tübingen, Tübingen, Germany
| | - Osman Dar
- Chatham House Centre for Global Health Security, Royal Institute of International Affairs, London, UK
| | - Rashid Ansumana
- School of Community Health Science, Njala University, Bo, Sierra Leone
| | - Md. Jamal Uddin
- Department of Statistics, Shahjalal University of Science and Technology, Sylhet, Bangladesh
- Department of General Educational and Development, Daffodil International University, Dhaka, Bangladesh
- Corresponding authors. Address: School of Life Sciences, Keele University, Keele ST5 5BG, UK.
| | - Alimuddin Zumla
- Division of Infection and Immunity, Centre for Clinical Microbiology, University College London, London, UK
- NIHR-BRC, University College London Hospitals, London, UK
| | - Richard A. Kock
- The Royal Veterinary College, University of London, Hatfield, UK
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14
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Hossain MT, Ahammed B, Jahan N, Islam MA, Rahman MM, Khan B, Sarker MJA, Nibir MMAM, Hasan M, Hasib M, Rahman R, Islam MN. Prevalence and predictors of pornography exposure during the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic: A web-based cross-sectional study on students in Bangladesh. Front Public Health 2022; 10:1046813. [PMID: 36605242 PMCID: PMC9807871 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2022.1046813] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/17/2022] [Accepted: 11/14/2022] [Indexed: 12/24/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Pornography exposure, particularly among students, in Bangladesh, has increased in the twenty-first century. However, pornography exposure during the COVID-19 pandemic, when people were compelled to "stay at home" and relied extensively on the internet for all forms of activities, including academia, socializing, and communication, has remained unexplored. The present study aimed to assess the prevalence of pornography exposure among students during the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic and to determine the associated predictors. Methods A web-based cross-sectional study was carried out among students with certain specifications, i.e., current students at high school/college/university with access to the internet and valid social media accounts. By administering a semi-structured e-questionnaire using Google Forms, a total of 646 valid responses were retained for this study. The data were analyzed in two phases by Pearson's Chi-square and multiple logistic regression model, using IBM SPSS Statistics, version 25. The results were expressed as an adjusted odds ratio (AOR) with a 95% confidence interval (95% CI). Results The findings suggest that 75.9% of students were exposed to pornography during the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic and preferred to watch the amateur/professional genre of pornography. Pornography exposure was significantly associated with age and relationship status, as students aged 22-24 years (95% CI: 1.01-2.41; p = 0.045) and over 25 years (95% CI: 1.61-10.03; p = 0.003) were more likely to watch pornography, while married students and those in relationships (95% CI: 1.24-3.49; p = 0.006) also watched pornography during the pandemic. In contrast, students who were living alone (95% CI: 0.38-0.92; p = 0.021), were living in the Khulna division (95% CI: 0.16-0.52; p < 0.001) or had a negative attitude toward pornography (95% CI: 0.94-0.99; p = 0.002) were less likely to be exposed to pornography. Conclusion Pornography exposure was higher among students in Bangladesh during the COVID-19 pandemic, and religiosity and disapproving attitudes toward pornography negatively influenced the pornography exposure. For a better understanding of the complex dynamics of socio-demographic issues with pornography exposure among students, extensive research is required for policymakers to devise appropriate strategies and interventions to ensure healthy and safe sex life for the younger population.
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Affiliation(s)
- Md. Tanvir Hossain
- Sociology Discipline, Social Science School, Khulna University, Khulna, Bangladesh,*Correspondence: Md. Tanvir Hossain
| | - Benojir Ahammed
- Statistics Discipline, Science, Engineering and Technology School, Khulna University, Khulna, Bangladesh
| | - Nusrat Jahan
- Sociology Discipline, Social Science School, Khulna University, Khulna, Bangladesh
| | - Md. Akhtarul Islam
- Statistics Discipline, Science, Engineering and Technology School, Khulna University, Khulna, Bangladesh
| | - Md. Mostafizur Rahman
- Department of Disaster Management and Resilience, Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences, Bangladesh University of Professionals, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Bayezid Khan
- Development Studies Discipline, Social Science School, Khulna University, Khulna, Bangladesh
| | - Md. Juwel Ahmed Sarker
- Department of Development Studies, Faculty of Social Science and Humanities, Hajee Mohammad Danesh Science and Technology University, Dinajpur, Bangladesh
| | | | - Mahamudul Hasan
- Statistics Discipline, Science, Engineering and Technology School, Khulna University, Khulna, Bangladesh
| | - Mir Hasib
- Mass Communication and Journalism Discipline, Social Science School, Khulna University, Khulna, Bangladesh
| | - Rumana Rahman
- English Discipline, Arts and Humanities School, Khulna University, Khulna, Bangladesh
| | - Md. Nazrul Islam
- Forestry and Wood Technology Discipline, Life Science School, Khulna University, Khulna, Bangladesh
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15
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Reema G, Vijaya Babu B, Tumuluru P, Praveen SP. COVID-19 EDA analysis and prediction using SIR and SEIR models. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT 2022. [DOI: 10.1080/20479700.2022.2130630] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/31/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Gunti Reema
- Department of Computer Science and Engineering, KoneruLakshmaiah Education Foundation, KL University, Vaddeswaram, Andhra Pradesh, India
| | - B. Vijaya Babu
- Department of Computer Science and Engineering, KoneruLakshmaiah Education Foundation, KL University, Vaddeswaram, Andhra Pradesh, India
| | - Praveen Tumuluru
- Department of Computer Science and Engineering, KoneruLakshmaiah Education Foundation, KL University, Vaddeswaram, Andhra Pradesh, India
| | - S. Phani Praveen
- Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Prasad V. Potluri Siddhartha Institute of Technology, Jawaharlal Nehru Technological University Kakinada, Kakinada, Andhra Pradesh, India
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16
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Lubis R, Satria FB, Zaki RA, Nurjazuli N, Hendrati LY. Factors influencing the COVID-19 pandemic situation in Indonesia, Malaysia and Taiwan in 2021. PUBLIC HEALTH IN PRACTICE 2022; 4:100311. [PMID: 36072129 PMCID: PMC9436786 DOI: 10.1016/j.puhip.2022.100311] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/30/2022] [Revised: 07/18/2022] [Accepted: 08/13/2022] [Indexed: 01/03/2023] Open
Abstract
Objectives The COVID-19 pandemic started over 2 years ago and spread rapidly throughout the world. The total number of cases and deaths is still increasing and the situation remains active across the globe. In the Asian region, COVID-19 vaccination began in early 2021; however, the COVID-19 situation remains uncertain. This study aims to compare the factors that influenced the COVID-19 pandemic situation in three countries in Asia (namely, Indonesia, Malaysia and Taiwan) throughout 2021. Study design This ecological study utilises the data from the 'Our World in Data' website. Methods In this study, the COVID-19 pandemic situation in each country is described by looking at the average daily number of deaths and cases per million population throughout 2021. A paired t-test was conducted to compare the significance of differences in the pandemic situation between 2020 and 2021. In addition, the COVID-19 vaccination profiles throughout 2021 were investigated. A multiple linear regression analysis was then performed to develop models to explain the factors influencing the COVID-19 pandemic situation in these three countries. Results The COVID-19 pandemic situation in Indonesia, Malaysia and Taiwan in 2021 is significantly different from 2020. Malaysia had the highest COVID-19 vaccination coverage (79.4%), followed by Taiwan (78.5%) and Indonesia (58.3%). This study found that the following three factors consistently influenced the number of deaths and cases in these three countries [1]: positivity rate [2]; number of tests per 1000 population; and [3] number of tests per case. Conclusions Although the severity of the COVID-19 pandemic situations in Indonesia, Malaysia and Taiwan was different, it is significantly influenced by the quality and quantity of COVID-19 testing and screening, in addition to the vaccination programmes and restriction policies implemented in each country. As a result of the ability of the SARS-CoV-2 virus to mutate, it is recommended that each country strengthen their comprehensive approach to have an effective and efficient coping strategy for the COVID-19 pandemic.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rahayu Lubis
- Faculty of Public Health, Universitas Sumatera Utara, Indonesia,Corresponding author. Faculty of Public Health, Universitas Sumatera Utara, Address: Jalan Universitas No. 21 Medan, 20155, North Sumatera Province, Indonesia.
| | - Fauzi Budi Satria
- Ph.D. Program in Global Health and Health Security, College of Public Health, Taipei Medical University, Taiwan
| | - Rafdzah Ahmad Zaki
- Centre for Epidemiology and Evidence-Based Practice, Faculty of Medicine, University of Malaya, Malaysia
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17
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Park MB, Ranabhat CL. COVID-19 trends, public restrictions policies and vaccination status by economic ranking of countries: a longitudinal study from 110 countries. Arch Public Health 2022; 80:197. [PMID: 35999620 PMCID: PMC9398898 DOI: 10.1186/s13690-022-00936-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/04/2022] [Accepted: 07/17/2022] [Indexed: 11/15/2022] Open
Abstract
Background The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has transitioned to a third phase and many variants have been originated. There has been millions of lives loss as well as billions in economic loss. The morbidity and mortality for COVID-19 varies by country. There were different preventive approaches and public restrictions policies have been applied to control the COVID-19 impacts and usually measured by Stringency Index. This study aimed to explore the COVID-19 trend, public restriction policies and vaccination status with economic ranking of countries. Methods We received open access data from Our World in Data. Data from 210 countries were available. Countries (n = 110) data related to testing, which is a key variable in the present study, were included for the analysis and remaining 100 countries were excluded due to incomplete data. The analysis period was set between January 22, 2020 (when COVID-19 was first officially reported) and December 28, 2021. All analyses were stratified by year and the World Bank income group. To analyze the associations among the major variables, we used a longitudinal fixed-effects model. Results Out of the 110 countries included in our analysis, there were 9 (8.18%), 25 (22.72%), 31 (28.18%), and 45 (40.90%) countries from low income countries (LIC), low and middle income countries (LMIC), upper middle income countries (UMIC) and high income countries (HIC) respectively. New case per million was similar in LMIC, UMIC and HIC but lower in LIC. The number of new COVID-19 test were reduced in HIC and LMIC but similar in UMIC and LIC. Stringency Index was negligible in LIC and similar in LMIC, UMIC and HIC. New positivity rate increased in LMIC and UMIC. The daily incidence rate was positively correlated with the daily mortality rate in both 2020 and 2021. In 2020, Stringency Index was positive in LIC and HIC but a negative association in LMIC and in 2021 there was a positive association between UMIC and HIC. Vaccination coverage did not appear to change with mortality in 2021. Conclusion New COVID-19 cases, tests, vaccinations, positivity rates, and Stringency indices were low in LIC and highest in UMIC. Our findings suggest that the available resources of COVID-19 pandemic would be allocated by need of countries; LIC and UMIC.
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18
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Hossain MT, Islam MA, Jahan N, Nahar MT, Sarker MJA, Rahman MM, Deeba F, Hoque KE, Aktar R, Islam MM, Hossain MZ, Siddiqua L, Mahbub Z, Islam MN. Mental Health Status of Teachers During the Second Wave of the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Web-Based Study in Bangladesh. Front Psychiatry 2022; 13:938230. [PMID: 35958639 PMCID: PMC9357994 DOI: 10.3389/fpsyt.2022.938230] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/07/2022] [Accepted: 06/20/2022] [Indexed: 12/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Following the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, the government of Bangladesh implemented strict non-therapeutic measures, i.e., "social distancing," "lockdown," "work from home," in the first quarter of 2020. Like other professionals, teachers at schools, colleges and universities were confined within households. However, the introduction of online education imposed an additional burden on teachers along with growing household responsibilities, thus, affecting their psychological state. Aims This study was aimed to explore the prevalence of mental health problems among teachers in Bangladesh and to identify the associated risk factors. Methods This web-based cross-sectional study was conducted during the second wave of COVID-19 pandemic in Bangladesh. Data were collected from 381 teachers working at schools, colleges, and universities between 01 August and 29 August 2021 by administering a self-reported e-questionnaire using Google Form, where the mental health of teachers was assessed by depression, anxiety, and stress scale. Data were analyzed using IBM SPSS Statistics (Version 26) and STATA Version 16, and multiple linear regression was executed to predict mental health problems among teachers. Results The findings indicate that the overall prevalence of depression, anxiety, and stress among teachers was 35.4%, 43.7%, and 6.6%, respectively. The prevalence was higher among male and older teachers than among their female and younger colleagues. The findings further showed that place of residence, institution, self-reported health, usage of social and electronic media, and fear of COVID-19 significantly influenced the mental health status of teachers. Conclusion It is strongly recommended that the government and policymakers provide proper mental health services to teachers in order to reduce mental health problems and thus sustain the quality of education during and after the pandemic.
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Affiliation(s)
- Md. Tanvir Hossain
- Sociology Discipline, Social Science School, Khulna University, Khulna, Bangladesh
| | - Md. Akhtarul Islam
- Statistics Discipline, Science, Engineering and Technology School, Khulna University, Khulna, Bangladesh
| | - Nusrat Jahan
- Sociology Discipline, Social Science School, Khulna University, Khulna, Bangladesh
| | - Mst. Tanmin Nahar
- Statistics Discipline, Science, Engineering and Technology School, Khulna University, Khulna, Bangladesh
| | - Md. Juwel Ahmed Sarker
- Department of Development Studies, Faculty of Social Science and Humanities, Hajee Mohammad Danesh Science and Technology University, Dinajpur, Bangladesh
| | - Md. Mostafizur Rahman
- Department of Disaster and Human Security Management, Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences, Bangladesh University of Professionals, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Farah Deeba
- Department of Clinical Psychology, Faculty of Biological Sciences, University of Dhaka, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | | | - Rina Aktar
- Sociology Discipline, Social Science School, Khulna University, Khulna, Bangladesh
| | - Md. Mazharul Islam
- Department of Sociology, Faculty of Social Science, Government Azizul Haque College, Bogura, Bangladesh
| | | | - Laila Siddiqua
- Architecture Discipline, Science, Engineering and Technology School, Khulna University, Khulna, Bangladesh
| | | | - Md. Nazrul Islam
- Forestry and Wood Technology Discipline, Life Science School, Khulna University, Khulna, Bangladesh
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Bouzouina L, Kourtit K, Nijkamp P. Impact of immobility and mobility activities on the spread of COVID‐19: Evidence from European countries. REGIONAL SCIENCE POLICY & PRACTICE 2022; 14:10.1111/rsp3.12565. [PMCID: PMC9349732 DOI: 10.1111/rsp3.12565] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/07/2022] [Revised: 05/20/2022] [Accepted: 07/01/2022] [Indexed: 06/19/2023]
Abstract
To limit the spread of COVID‐19, most countries in the world have put in place measures which restrict mobility. The co‐presence of several people in the same place of work, shopping, leisure or transport is considered a favourable vector for the transmission of the virus. However, this hypothesis remains to be verified in the light of the daily data available since the first wave of contamination. Does immobility reduce the spread of the COVID‐19 pandemic? Does mobility contribute to the increase in the number of infections for all activities? This paper applies several pooled mean group–autoregressive distributed lag (PMG–ARDL) models to investigate the impact of immobility and daily mobility activities on the spread of the COVID‐19 pandemic in European countries using daily data for the period from 12 March 2020 to 31 August 2021. The results of the PMG–ARDL models show that immobility and higher temperatures play a significant role in reducing the COVID‐19 pandemic. The increase in mobility activities (grocery, retail, use of transit) is also positively associated with the number of new COVID‐19 cases. The combined analysis with the Granger causality test shows that the relationship between mobility and COVID‐19 goes in both directions, with the exception of grocery shopping, visits to parks and commuting mobility. The former favours the spread of COVID‐19, while the next two have no causal relationship with COVID‐19. The results confirm the role of immobility in mitigating the spread of the pandemic, but call into question the drastic policies of systematically closing all places of activity.
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Affiliation(s)
- Louafi Bouzouina
- LAET, ENTPEUniversity of LyonFrance
- Open UniversityHeerlenThe Netherlands
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20
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Okafor L, Yan E. Covid-19 vaccines, rules, deaths, and tourism recovery. ANNALS OF TOURISM RESEARCH 2022; 95:103424. [PMID: 35600093 PMCID: PMC9110313 DOI: 10.1016/j.annals.2022.103424] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/11/2021] [Revised: 04/29/2022] [Accepted: 05/01/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
This study explores whether vaccination coverage, social distancing rules, and COVID-19 death rate affect tourism recovery using data from 249 countries/territories. We used panel data regression techniques-namely Fixed-effects, Hausman-Taylor, and Instrumental Variables regressions for the empirical analysis. Results show that a higher vaccination coverage is not necessarily accompanied by a higher tourism recovery. Similarly, a higher level of stringency restriction hinders tourism recovery. Results also indicate that a lower death rate helps to promote tourism recovery in developed economies. These results suggest that vaccination coverage alone is not the magic bullet for restarting the tourism industry. Policymakers should consider a mix of effective vaccination administration accompanied by the use of therapeutics to lower the COVID-19 death rate.
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Affiliation(s)
- Luke Okafor
- School of Economics, Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences, University of Nottingham, Jalan Broga, Semenyih 43500, Malaysia
| | - Eric Yan
- Department of Political Science, National Cheng Kung University, No. 25, Xiaodong Rd., North Dist., Tainan City 701, Taiwan
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21
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Wang Y. Does Governance Quality Matter for the Selection of Policy Stringency to Fight COVID-19? INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2022; 19:ijerph19116679. [PMID: 35682263 PMCID: PMC9180495 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph19116679] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/09/2022] [Revised: 05/26/2022] [Accepted: 05/27/2022] [Indexed: 02/04/2023]
Abstract
Independent of different national conditions, an indisputable fact is that the worldwide governments should play a role in fighting the ongoing COVID-19. To make clear the determinants of government response to tackle COVID-19, I investigate the impact of governance quality. To do so, I newly create an overall governance index based on six dimensions of Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) from the World Bank to proxy governance quality. I regress the overall governance index with controls on the stringency index from the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker database. Using pooled and panel data models with individual and time fixed effects, I find that the relationship between governance quality and policy stringency for 339 days across 163 countries is significantly nonmonotonic. Countries with middle governance quality select a high level of policy stringency in contrast to those with high and low governance quality. I also find that policy stringency significantly increases when daily new cases increase. The findings highlight the role of governance quality in deciding the stringency level of public health policies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yan Wang
- School of Economics and Management, Huangshan University, Huangshan 245021, China
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22
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Vaccination Is Reasonably Effective in Limiting the Spread of COVID-19 Infections, Hospitalizations and Deaths with COVID-19. Vaccines (Basel) 2022; 10:vaccines10050678. [PMID: 35632434 PMCID: PMC9143604 DOI: 10.3390/vaccines10050678] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/16/2022] [Revised: 04/18/2022] [Accepted: 04/19/2022] [Indexed: 11/17/2022] Open
Abstract
This paper uses large cross-country data for 110 countries to examine the effectiveness of COVID vaccination coverage during the delta variant outbreak. Our results confirm that vaccines are reasonably effective in both limiting the spread of infections and containing more severe disease progression in symptomatic patients. First, the results show that full vaccination rate is consistently negatively correlated with the number of new COVID cases, whereby a 10 percent increase in vaccination rate is associated with a 1.3 to 1.7 percent decrease in new COVID cases. Second, the magnitude of vaccination is shown to contribute significantly to moderating severe disease progression. On average, a 10 percent increase in the rate of vaccination leads to a reduction of about 5 percent in the number of new hospitalizations, 12 percent decrease in the number of new intensive care patients and 2 percent reduction in the number of new deaths. Finally, by comparing the data for the same period between 2020 and 2021, we also check how well vaccination performs as a substitute for lockdowns or other stringent government protection measures. Results suggest that vaccination appears to be an effective substitute for more stringent government safety measures to contain the spread of COVID infections only at a sufficiently high vaccination coverage threshold (more than 70 percent). On the other hand, vaccination is shown to be quite effective in limiting the more severe course of the disease in symptomatic patients already at moderate vaccination coverage (between 40 and 70 percent). This suggests that vaccination can also help to reduce pressure on the health system and thus benefit the overall public health of society. On the other hand, the efficient rollout of vaccines could explain the favourable economic performance in the second half of 2021 despite the severe outbreak of the delta variant.
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Oshinubi K, Buhamra SS, Al-Kandari NM, Waku J, Rachdi M, Demongeot J. Age Dependent Epidemic Modeling of COVID-19 Outbreak in Kuwait, France, and Cameroon. Healthcare (Basel) 2022; 10:healthcare10030482. [PMID: 35326960 PMCID: PMC8954002 DOI: 10.3390/healthcare10030482] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/11/2022] [Revised: 02/21/2022] [Accepted: 02/28/2022] [Indexed: 02/01/2023] Open
Abstract
Revisiting the classical model by Ross and Kermack-McKendrick, the Susceptible−Infectious−Recovered (SIR) model used to formalize the COVID-19 epidemic, requires improvements which will be the subject of this article. The heterogeneity in the age of the populations concerned leads to considering models in age groups with specific susceptibilities, which makes the prediction problem more difficult. Basically, there are three age groups of interest which are, respectively, 0−19 years, 20−64 years, and >64 years, but in this article, we only consider two (20−64 years and >64 years) age groups because the group 0−19 years is widely seen as being less infected by the virus since this age group had a low infection rate throughout the pandemic era of this study, especially the countries under consideration. In this article, we proposed a new mathematical age-dependent (Susceptible−Infectious−Goneanewsusceptible−Recovered (SIGR)) model for the COVID-19 outbreak and performed some mathematical analyses by showing the positivity, boundedness, stability, existence, and uniqueness of the solution. We performed numerical simulations of the model with parameters from Kuwait, France, and Cameroon. We discuss the role of these different parameters used in the model; namely, vaccination on the epidemic dynamics. We open a new perspective of improving an age-dependent model and its application to observed data and parameters.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kayode Oshinubi
- Laboratory AGEIS EA 7407, Team Tools for e-Gnosis Medical, Faculty of Medicine, University Grenoble Alpes (UGA), 38700 La Tronche, France; (K.O.); (M.R.); (J.D.)
| | - Sana S. Buhamra
- Department of Information Science, Kuwait University, P.O. Box 5969, Safat 13060, Kuwait
- Correspondence:
| | - Noriah M. Al-Kandari
- Department of Statistics and Operations Research, Kuwait University, P.O. Box 5969, Safat 13060, Kuwait;
| | - Jules Waku
- UMMISCO UMI IRD 209 & LIRIMA, University of Yaoundé I, Yaoundé P.O. Box 337, Cameroon;
| | - Mustapha Rachdi
- Laboratory AGEIS EA 7407, Team Tools for e-Gnosis Medical, Faculty of Medicine, University Grenoble Alpes (UGA), 38700 La Tronche, France; (K.O.); (M.R.); (J.D.)
| | - Jacques Demongeot
- Laboratory AGEIS EA 7407, Team Tools for e-Gnosis Medical, Faculty of Medicine, University Grenoble Alpes (UGA), 38700 La Tronche, France; (K.O.); (M.R.); (J.D.)
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Demographic Characteristics and Status of Vaccinated Individuals with a History of COVID-19 Infection Pre- or Post-Vaccination: A Descriptive Study of a Nationally Representative Sample in Saudi Arabia. Vaccines (Basel) 2022; 10:vaccines10020323. [PMID: 35214781 PMCID: PMC8875240 DOI: 10.3390/vaccines10020323] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/19/2022] [Revised: 02/11/2022] [Accepted: 02/13/2022] [Indexed: 02/01/2023] Open
Abstract
Background: Saudi Arabia expedited the approval of some COVID-19 vaccines and launched mass vaccination campaigns. The aim of this study was to describe the demographics of vaccinated COVID-19 cases and compare the mortality rates of COVID-19 cases who were infected post-vaccination in Saudi Arabia. Methods: This was a retrospective cohort study. We retrieved data for COVID-19 cases who were infected pre- or post-vaccination and had received at least one injection of the Oxford–AstraZeneca or Pfizer–BioNTech vaccine from 4 December 2020 to 15 October 2021. Results: The number of patients who were infected and had received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine was 281,744. Approximately 45% of subjects were infected post-vaccination, and 75% of subjects had received the Pfizer–BioNTech vaccine. Only 0.342% of the patients who were infected post-vaccination died, and 447 patients were admitted to ICUs. Most of the patients who were infected with COVID-19 post-vaccination and were admitted to ICUs (69.84%) had received only one dose of the vaccine (p < 0.0001). The mean time to infection for patients who had received one and two doses of the Oxford–AstraZeneca vaccine were 27 and 8 days longer than their counterparts who had received one and two doses of Pfizer–BioNTech vaccine, respectively. No difference in the odds of mortality between the Pfizer–BioNTech and Oxford–AstraZeneca vaccines was found (OR = 1.121, 95% CI = [0.907–1.386], p-value = 0.291). Patients who had received two doses of the vaccine had significantly lower odds of mortality compared to those who had received one dose (p < 0.0001). Conclusions: Vaccines are vital in combating the COVID-19 pandemic. The results of this study show no difference between the Pfizer–BioNTech and Oxford–AstraZeneca vaccines in the rate of mortality. However, the number of vaccine doses was significantly associated with a lower risk of mortality. Future studies should examine the effectiveness of different COVID-19 vaccines using real-world data and more robust designs.
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Kontis V, Bennett JE, Parks RM, Rashid T, Pearson-Stuttard J, Asaria P, Zhou B, Guillot M, Mathers CD, Khang YH, McKee M, Ezzati M. Lessons learned and lessons missed: impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on all-cause mortality in 40 industrialised countries and US states prior to mass vaccination. Wellcome Open Res 2022; 6:279. [PMID: 35252592 PMCID: PMC8861471 DOI: 10.12688/wellcomeopenres.17253.2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 02/02/2022] [Indexed: 01/21/2023] Open
Abstract
Background: Industrialised countries had varied responses to the COVID-19 pandemic, which may lead to different death tolls from COVID-19 and other diseases. Methods: We applied an ensemble of 16 Bayesian probabilistic models to vital statistics data to estimate the number of weekly deaths if the pandemic had not occurred for 40 industrialised countries and US states from mid-February 2020 through mid-February 2021. We subtracted these estimates from the actual number of deaths to calculate the impacts of the pandemic on all-cause mortality. Results: Over this year, there were 1,410,300 (95% credible interval 1,267,600-1,579,200) excess deaths in these countries, equivalent to a 15% (14-17) increase, and 141 (127-158) additional deaths per 100,000 people. In Iceland, Australia and New Zealand, mortality was lower than would be expected in the absence of the pandemic, while South Korea and Norway experienced no detectable change. The USA, Czechia, Slovakia and Poland experienced >20% higher mortality. Within the USA, Hawaii experienced no detectable change in mortality and Maine a 5% increase, contrasting with New Jersey, Arizona, Mississippi, Texas, California, Louisiana and New York which experienced >25% higher mortality. Mid-February to the end of May 2020 accounted for over half of excess deaths in Scotland, Spain, England and Wales, Canada, Sweden, Belgium, the Netherlands and Cyprus, whereas mid-September 2020 to mid-February 2021 accounted for >90% of excess deaths in Bulgaria, Croatia, Czechia, Hungary, Latvia, Montenegro, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia. In USA, excess deaths in the northeast were driven mainly by the first wave, in southern and southwestern states by the summer wave, and in the northern plains by the post-September period. Conclusions: Prior to widespread vaccine-acquired immunity, minimising the overall death toll of the pandemic requires policies and non-pharmaceutical interventions that delay and reduce infections, effective treatments for infected patients, and mechanisms to continue routine health care.
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Affiliation(s)
- Vasilis Kontis
- MRC Centre for Environment and Health, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - James E. Bennett
- MRC Centre for Environment and Health, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Robbie M. Parks
- The Earth Institute, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA
- Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA
| | - Theo Rashid
- MRC Centre for Environment and Health, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | | | - Perviz Asaria
- MRC Centre for Environment and Health, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Bin Zhou
- MRC Centre for Environment and Health, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Michel Guillot
- Population Studies Center, Department of Sociology, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, USA
- French Institute for Demographic Studies (INED), Paris, France
| | | | - Young-Ho Khang
- Institute of Health Policy and Management, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea
| | - Martin McKee
- Department of Health Services Research and Policy, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Majid Ezzati
- MRC Centre for Environment and Health, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
- Regional Institute for Population Studies, University of Ghana, Legon, Ghana
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Invernizzi A. The impact of COVID-19 on the retina: clinical features and management considerations. EXPERT REVIEW OF OPHTHALMOLOGY 2022. [DOI: 10.1080/17469899.2022.2021877] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/14/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Alessandro Invernizzi
- Eye Clinic, Department of Biomedical and Clinical Sciences L. Sacco, Luigi Sacco Hospital, University of Milan, Milan, Italy
- The Discipline of Clinical Ophthalmology and Eye Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health, Save Sight Institute, Sydney Eye Hospital, The University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia
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Nishat JF, Shovo TEA, Ahammed B, Islam MA, Rahman MM, Hossain MT. Mental health status of early married girls during the COVID-19 pandemic: A study in the southwestern region of Bangladesh. Front Psychiatry 2022; 13:1074208. [PMID: 36683997 PMCID: PMC9849885 DOI: 10.3389/fpsyt.2022.1074208] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/19/2022] [Accepted: 11/23/2022] [Indexed: 01/07/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Due to unemployment, the prolonged lockdown during the COVID-19 pandemic caused panic and deepened poverty, especially among lower-class and marginal people. The related financial crises led to harmful practices such as the early marriage of adolescent girls, which deteriorated these girl's mental state. AIMS This study attempted to assess the prevalence of mental health problems among early married girls and determine the associated predictors of the growing mental health burden. METHODS This cross-sectional survey was conducted during the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Dumuria Upazila in the Khulna district of Bangladesh. Data were collected purposively from 304 girls who were married off during the COVID-19 pandemic, this was carried out between 22 July and 31 August 2022 by administering a semi-structured interview schedule, with mental health measured by the depression, anxiety, and stress scale 21 (DASS 21). The data were analyzed using IBM SPSS Statistics (version 25), and multiple linear regression was executed in order to predict mental health problems among early married girls. RESULTS The findings show that the overall prevalence of depression, anxiety, and stress among early married girls during the COVID-19 pandemic in Bangladesh was 60.9% (95% CI: 0.554-0.663), 74.7% (95% CI: 0.698-0.796), and 23.7% (95% CI: 0.189-0.285). The prevalence was relatively higher among girls from the Sanatan (Hindu) religion and younger girls than among Muslim and older girls, respectively. The multiple linear regressions indicate that age, age at marriage, duration of the marriage, spousal occupation, intimate partner violence (IPV), and subjective happiness were the critical predictors of mental health problems among early married girls. CONCLUSION Early marriage, along with various adverse outcomes, i.e., IPV, maladjustment, and poor subjective happiness, has resulted in heightened mental health problems for young girls. Policymakers should implement coercive measures to prevent early marriage, especially during social, economic, political, and health crises; in addition, more research is recommended in order to explore the mechanisms that make early married girls psychologically vulnerable and thus formulate protective and preventive programs for addressing such vulnerabilities.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Taufiq-E-Ahmed Shovo
- Sociology Discipline, Social Science School, Khulna University, Khulna, Bangladesh
| | - Benojir Ahammed
- Statistics Discipline, Science, Engineering and Technology School, Khulna University, Khulna, Bangladesh
| | - Md Akhtarul Islam
- Statistics Discipline, Science, Engineering and Technology School, Khulna University, Khulna, Bangladesh
| | | | - Md Tanvir Hossain
- Sociology Discipline, Social Science School, Khulna University, Khulna, Bangladesh
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