Reliability of Examination Findings in Suspected Community-Acquired Pneumonia

Prevalence and predictors of radiographic pneumonia in children with wheeze: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Diagnostic uncertainty exists surrounding the identification of radiographic pneumonia in children with wheeze. It is important to determine the prevalence and clinical predictors of pneumonia in this population to limit chest radiography (CXR) and promote judicious antibiotic use.

OBJECTIVES

The objectives were to (1) estimate the prevalence of radiographic pneumonia in children with wheeze and (2) systematically review the diagnostic accuracy of clinical findings for the identification of radiographic pneumonia.

METHODS

Data sources were MEDLINE, PubMed Central, Cochrane Library, CINAHL, and Web of Science (January 1995 to September 2023). For study selection, two reviewers identified high-quality studies reporting on clinical characteristics associated with radiographic pneumonia in wheezing children (age 0-21 years). Using Covidence software, data regarding study characteristics, methodologic quality, and results were extracted. Data were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 8333 unique titles and abstracts were reviewed. Twelve studies, representing 7398 patients, were included. Fifteen percent of children with wheeze undergoing CXR had pneumonia. Findings associated with radiographic pneumonia included temperature ≥ 38.4°C (positive likelihood ratio [LR+] 2.1, 95% CI 1.2-3.6, specificity 85%), oxygen saturation < 92% (LR+ 3.6, 95% CI 1.4-8.9, specificity 89%), and grunting (LR+ 2.7, 95% CI 1.6-4.4, pooled specificity 91%). Factors associated with the absence of radiographic pneumonia included lack of fever (negative likelihood ratio [LR-] 0.67, 95% CI 0.52-0.85) and oxygen saturation ≥ 95% (LR- 0.64, 95% CI 0.42-0.98). Tachypnea and auscultatory findings were not associated with radiographic pneumonia.

DISCUSSION

Heterogeneity across studies limits generalizability. Additionally, all included studies overestimate the rate of radiographic pneumonia given the fact that all subjects had a CXR performed due to clinical suspicion of pneumonia.

CONCLUSIONS

Radiographic pneumonia occurs in 15% of wheezing children undergoing CXR for pneumonia. Auscultatory findings and tachypnea do not differentiate children with and without pneumonia, and the rate of radiographic pneumonia is very low in the absence of fever and hypoxemia.

External validation of two clinical prediction models for pediatric pneumonia

OBJECTIVE

To externally validate two prediction models for pediatric radiographic pneumonia.

METHODS

We prospectively evaluated the performance of two prediction models (Pneumonia Risk Score [PRS] and CARPE DIEM models) from a prospective convenience sample of children 90 days - 18 years of age from a pediatric emergency department undergoing chest radiography for suspected pneumonia between January 1, 2022, to December 31st, 2023. We evaluated model performance using the original intercepts and coefficients and evaluated for performance changes when performing recalibration and re-estimation procedures.

RESULTS

We included 202 patients (median age 3 years, IQR 1-6 years), of whom radiographic pneumonia was found in 92 (41.0%). The PRS model had an area under the receiver operator characteristic curve of 0.72 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.64-0.79), which was higher than the CARPE DIEM (0.59; 95% CI 0.51-0.67) (P<0.01). Using optimal cutpoints, the PRS model showed higher sensitivity (65.2%, 95% CI 54.6-74.9) and specificity (72.7%, 95% CI 63.4-80.8) compared to the CARPE DIEM model (sensitivity 56.5 [95% CI 45.8-66.8]; specificity 60.9 [95% CI 50.2-69.2]). Recalibration and re-estimation of models improved performance, particularly for the CARPE DIEM model, with gains in sensitivity and specificity, and improved calibration.

CONCLUSION

The PRS model demonstrated better performance than the CARPE DIEM model in predicting radiographic pneumonia. Among children with a high rate of pneumonia, these models did not reach a level of performance sufficient to be used independently of clinical judgement. These findings highlight the need for further validation and improvement of models to enhance their utility.

Potentially Avoidable Emergency Department Transfers for Acute Pediatric Respiratory Illness

BACKGROUND

Acute pediatric respiratory illness is one of the most common reasons for emergency department (ED) transfer; however, few studies have examined predictors of potentially avoidable ED transfer (PAT) in this subpopulation. This study aimed to characterize patterns and predictors of PATs in children with acute respiratory illness.

METHODS

Cross-sectional analysis of 8,402,577 visits for patients ≤17 years from 2018 to 2019 Health Care Utilization Project State ED and Inpatient Datasets from New York, Maryland, Wisconsin, and Florida. ED transfers matched to a visit at a receiving facility with a primary diagnosis of pneumonia, croup/other upper respiratory infection (URI), bronchiolitis, or asthma were included. PAT was defined as discharge from receiving ED or within 24 hours of inpatient admission without specialized procedures, as previously described. PATs were compared with necessary transfers using a 3-level generalized linear mixed model with adjustment for patient and hospital covariates.

RESULTS

Among 4409 matched respiratory transfers, 25.5% were potentially avoidable. Most PATs originated from EDs within the third highest quartile of annual pediatric ED visits (n = 472, 42.0%). In the multivariable model, the likelihood of PAT was higher for patients with croup/other URI ((odds ratio) OR 2.72 (2.09-3.5) and if referring ED was in the highest quartile of annual pediatric ED volumes (OR 0.48 95% (confidence interval) CI 0.26-0.88).

CONCLUSIONS

Pediatric respiratory transfers with a diagnosis of croup/other URI were the most likely to be potentially avoidable. Future implementation efforts to reduce PATs should consider focusing on croup management in EDs in the lower 3 quartiles of pediatric volume.

Time to Clinical Stability in Children With Community-Acquired Pneumonia

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Time to clinical stability (TCS) is a commonly used outcome in adults with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP), yet few studies have evaluated TCS in children. Our objective was to determine the association between TCS and disease severity in children with suspected CAP, as well as factors associated with reaching early stability.

METHODS

This is a prospective cohort study of children (aged 3 months to 18 years) hospitalized with suspected CAP. TCS parameters included temperature, heart rate, respiratory rate, and hypoxemia with the use of supplemental oxygen. TCS was defined as time from admission to parameter normalization. The association of TCS with severity and clinical factors associated with earlier TCS were evaluated.

RESULTS

Of 571 children, 187 (32.7%) had at least 1 abnormal parameter at discharge, and none had ≥3 abnormal discharge parameters. A greater proportion of infants (90 [93%]) had all 4 parameters stable at discharge compared with 12- to 18-year-old youths (21 [49%]). The median TCS for each parameter was <24 hours. Younger age, absence of vomiting, diffusely decreased breath sounds, and normal capillary refill were associated with earlier TCS. Children who did not reach stability were not more likely to revisit after discharge.

CONCLUSIONS

A TCS outcome consisting of physiologic variables may be useful for objectively assessing disease recovery and clinical readiness for discharge among children hospitalized with CAP. TCS may decrease length of stay if implemented to guide discharge decisions. Clinicians can consider factors associated with earlier TCS for management decisions.

Parent and Clinician Views on Not Using Antibiotics for Mild Community-Acquired Pneumonia

OBJECTIVES

Preschool-aged children with mild community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) routinely receive antibiotics even though most infections are viral. We sought to identify barriers to the implementation of a "no antibiotic" strategy for mild CAP in young children.

METHODS

Qualitative study using semistructured interviews conducted in a large pediatric hospital in the United States from January 2021 to July 2021. Parents of young children diagnosed with mild CAP in the previous 3 years and clinicians practicing in outpatient settings (pediatric emergency department, community emergency department, general pediatrics offices) were included.

RESULTS

Interviews were conducted with 38 respondents (18 parents, 20 clinicians). No parent heard of the no antibiotic strategy, and parents varied in their support for the approach. Degree of support related to their desire to avoid unnecessary medications, trust in clinicians, the emotional difficulty of caring for a sick child, desire for relief of suffering, willingness to accept the risk of unnecessary antibiotics, and judgment about the child's illness severity. Eleven (55%) clinicians were familiar with guidelines specifying a no antibiotic strategy. They identified challenges in not using antibiotics, including diagnostic uncertainty, consequences of undertreatment, parental expectations, follow-up concerns, and acceptance of the risks of unnecessary antibiotic treatment of many children if it means avoiding adverse outcomes for some children.

CONCLUSIONS

Although both parents and clinicians expressed broad support for the judicious use of antibiotics, pneumonia presents stewardship challenges. Interventions will need to consider the emotional, social, and logistical aspects of managing pneumonia, in addition to developing techniques to improve diagnosis.

Radiographic pneumonia in young febrile infants presenting to the emergency department: secondary analysis of a prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

The lack of evidence-based criteria to guide chest radiograph (CXR) use in young febrile infants results in variation in its use with resultant suboptimal quality of care. We sought to describe the features associated with radiographic pneumonias in young febrile infants.

STUDY DESIGN

Secondary analysis of a prospective cohort study in 18 emergency departments (EDs) in the Pediatric Emergency Care Applied Research Network from 2016 to 2019. Febrile (≥38°C) infants aged ≤60 days who received CXRs were included. CXR reports were categorised as 'no', 'possible' or 'definite' pneumonia. We compared demographics, clinical signs and laboratory tests among infants with and without pneumonias.

RESULTS

Of 2612 infants, 568 (21.7%) had CXRs performed; 19 (3.3%) had definite and 34 (6%) had possible pneumonias. Patients with definite (4/19, 21.1%) or possible (11/34, 32.4%) pneumonias more frequently presented with respiratory distress compared with those without (77/515, 15.0%) pneumonias (adjusted OR 2.17; 95% CI 1.04 to 4.51). There were no differences in temperature or HR in infants with and without radiographic pneumonias. The median serum procalcitonin (PCT) level was higher in the definite (0.7 ng/mL (IQR 0.1, 1.5)) vs no pneumonia (0.1 ng/mL (IQR 0.1, 0.3)) groups, as was the median absolute neutrophil count (ANC) (definite, 5.8 K/mcL (IQR 3.9, 6.9) vs no pneumonia, 3.1 K/mcL (IQR 1.9, 5.3)). No infants with pneumonia had bacteraemia. Viral detection was frequent (no pneumonia (309/422, 73.2%), definite pneumonia (11/16, 68.8%), possible pneumonia (25/29, 86.2%)). Respiratory syncytial virus was the predominant pathogen in the pneumonia groups and rhinovirus in infants without pneumonias.

CONCLUSIONS

Radiographic pneumonias were uncommon in febrile infants. Viral detection was common. Pneumonia was associated with respiratory distress, but few other factors. Although ANC and PCT levels were elevated in infants with definite pneumonias, further work is necessary to evaluate the role of blood biomarkers in infant pneumonias.

Community-Acquired Pneumonia in Children

ABSTRACT

Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is the most common cause of childhood mortality globally. In the United States, CAP is a leading cause of pediatric hospitalization and antibiotic use and is associated with substantial morbidity. There has been a dramatic shift in microbiological etiologies for CAP in children over time as pneumococcal pneumonia has become less common and viral etiologies have become predominant. There is no commonly agreed on approach to the diagnosis of CAP in children. When indicated, antimicrobial treatment should consist of narrow-spectrum antibiotics. In this article, we will describe the current understanding of the microbiological etiologies, clinical presentation, diagnostic approach, risk factors, treatment, and future directions in the diagnosis and management of pediatric CAP.

Pediatric prognostic models predicting inhospital child mortality in resource-limited settings: An external validation study

Background and Aims

Prognostic models provide evidence-based predictions and estimates of future outcomes, facilitating decision-making, patient care, and research. A few of these models have been externally validated, leading to uncertain reliability and generalizability. This study aims to externally validate four models to assess their transferability and usefulness in clinical practice. The models include the respiratory index of severity in children (RISC)-Malawi model and three other models by Lowlavaar et al.

Methods

The study used data from the Clinical Information Network (CIN) to validate the four models where the primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. 163,329 patients met eligibility criteria. Missing data were imputed, and the logistic function was used to compute predicted risk of in-hospital mortality. Models' discriminatory ability and calibration were determined using area under the curve (AUC), calibration slope, and intercept.

Results

The RISC-Malawi model had 50,669 pneumonia patients who met the eligibility criteria, of which the case-fatality ratio was 4406 (8.7%). Its AUC was 0.77 (95% CI: 0.77-0.78), whereas the calibration slope was 1.04 (95% CI: 1.00 -1.06), and calibration intercept was 0.81 (95% CI: 0.77-0.84). Regarding the external validation of Lowlavaar et al. models, 10,782 eligible patients  were included, with an in-hospital mortality rate of 5.3%. The primary model's AUC was 0.75 (95% CI: 0.72-0.77), the calibration slope was 0.78 (95% CI: 0.71-0.84), and the calibration intercept was 0.37 (95% CI: 0.28-0.46). All models markedly underestimated the risk of mortality.

Conclusion

All externally validated models exhibited either underestimation or overestimation of the risk as judged from calibration statistics. Hence, applying these models with confidence in settings other than their original development context may not be advisable. Our findings strongly suggest the need for recalibrating these model to enhance their generalizability.

Antibiotic use and outcomes among children hospitalized with suspected pneumonia

BACKGROUND

Although viral etiologies predominate, antibiotics are frequently prescribed for community-acquired pneumonia (CAP).

OBJECTIVE

We evaluated the association between antibiotic use and outcomes among children hospitalized with suspected CAP.

DESIGNS, SETTINGS AND PARTICIPANTS

We performed a secondary analysis of a prospective cohort of children hospitalized with suspected CAP.

INTERVENTION

The exposure was the receipt of antibiotics in the emergency department (ED).

MAIN OUTCOME AND MEASURES

Clinical outcomes included length of stay (LOS), care escalation, postdischarge treatment failure, 30-day ED revisit, and quality-of-life (QoL) measures from a follow-up survey 7-15 days post discharge. To minimize confounding by indication (e.g., radiographic CAP), we performed inverse probability treatment weighting with propensity analyses.

RESULTS

Among 523 children, 66% were <5 years, 88% were febrile, 55% had radiographic CAP, and 55% received ED antibiotics. The median LOS was 41 h (IQR: 25, 54). After propensity analyses, there were no differences in LOS, escalated care, treatment failure, or revisits between children who received antibiotics and those who did not. Seventy-one percent of patients completed follow-up surveys after discharge. Among 16% of patients with fevers after discharge, the median fever duration was 2 days, and those who received antibiotics had a 37% decrease in the mean number of days with fever (95% confidence interval: 20% and 51%). We found no statistical differences in other QoL measures.

Frequency of Bacteremia and Urinary Tract Infection in Pediatric Renal Transplant Recipients

BACKGROUND

Our primary goal was to determine the frequency of bacteremia and urinary tract infections (UTI) in pediatric renal transplant recipients presenting with suspected infection within 2 years of transplant and to identify clinical and laboratory factors associated with bacteremia.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cross-sectional study for all pediatric ( < 18 years old) renal transplant recipients seen at 3 large children's hospitals from 2011 to 2018 for suspected infection within 2 years of transplant date, defined as pyrexia ( > 38°C) or a blood culture being ordered. Patients with primary immunodeficiencies, nontransplant immunosuppression, intestinal failure, and patients who had moved out of the local area were excluded. The primary outcome was bacteremia or UTI; secondary outcomes included pneumonia, bacterial or fungal meningitis, respiratory viral infections, and antibiotic resistance. The unit of analysis was the visit.

RESULTS

One hundred fifteen children had 267 visits for infection evaluation within 2 years of transplant. Bacteremia (with or without UTI) was diagnosed in 9/213 (4.2%) and UTIs in 63/189 (33.3%). Tachycardia and hypotension were present in 66.7% and 0% of visits with documented bacteremia, respectively. White blood cell (12,700 cells/mm 3 vs. 10,900 cells/mm 3 ; P = 0.43) and absolute neutrophil count (10,700 vs. 8200 cells/mm 3 ; P = 0.24) were no different in bacteremic and nonbacteremic patients. The absolute band count was higher in children with bacteremia (1900 vs. 600 cells/mm 3 ; P = 0.02). Among Gram-negative pathogens, antibiotic resistance was seen to 3rd (14.5%) and 4th (3.6%) generation cephalosporins, 12.7% to semisynthetic penicillins, and 3.6% to carbapenems.

CONCLUSIONS

Bacteremia or UTIs were diagnosed in one-quarter of all pediatric renal transplant recipients presenting with suspected infection within 2 years of transplant. Evaluations were highly variable, with one-third of visits not having urine cultures obtained. No single demographic, clinical or laboratory variable accurately identified patients with bacteremia, although combinations of findings may identify a high-risk population.

Factors associated with severe childhood community-acquired pneumonia: a retrospective study from two hospitals

Background

Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is the leading cause of death in children globally. Indonesia is ranked 1st in South East Asia with the highest burden of pneumonia. Identification of risk factors is necessary for early intervention and better management. This study intended to describe CAP’s clinical signs and laboratory findings and explore the risk factors of severe CAP among children in Indonesia.

Methods

This was a retrospective study of childhood hospitalizations in Siloam General Hospitals and Siloam Hospitals Lippo Village from December 2015 to December 2019. Demographic data, clinical signs, and laboratory findings were collected and processed using IBM SPSS 26.0.

Results

This study included 217 participants with 66 (30.4%) severe pneumonia cases. Multivariate analysis shows that fever that lasts more than 7 days (ORadj = 4.95; 95%CI 1.61–15.21, Padj = 0.005) and increase in respiratory rate (ORadj = 1.05, 95%CI 1.01–1.08, Padj = 0.009) are two predictors of severe pneumonia. Meanwhile, a normal hematocrit level (ORadj = 0.9; 95%CI 0.83–0.98, Padj = 0.011) and children with normal BMI (ORadj = 0.7; 95%CI 0.57–0.84, Padj < 0.001) are significant independent predictors of severe pneumonia. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test shows that this model is a good fit with a P-value of 0.281. The AUC for this model is 0.819 (95%CI = 0.746–0.891, P-value < 0.001) which shows that this model has good discrimination.

Conclusion

Pediatric CAP hospitalizations with fever lasting > 7 days and tachypnea were at higher risk for progressing to severe pneumonia. A normal hematocrit level and a normal BMI are protective factors for severe pneumonia.

Variation in bacterial pneumonia diagnoses and outcomes among children hospitalized with lower respiratory tract infections

BACKGROUND

Current diagnostics do not permit reliable differentiation of bacterial from viral causes of lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI), which may lead to over-treatment with antibiotics for possible bacterial community-acquired pneumonia (CAP).

OBJECTIVES

We sought to describe variation in the diagnosis and treatment of bacterial CAP among children hospitalized with LRTIs and determine the association between CAP diagnosis and outcomes.

DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

This multicenter cross-sectional study included children hospitalized between 2017 and 2019 with LRTIs at 42 children's hospitals.

MAIN OUTCOME AND METHODS

We calculated the proportion of children with LRTIs who were diagnosed with and treated for bacterial CAP. After adjusting for confounders, hospitals were grouped into high, moderate, and low CAP diagnosis groups. Multivariable regression was used to examine the association between high and low CAP diagnosis groups and outcomes.

RESULTS

We identified 66,581 patients hospitalized with LRTIs and observed substantial variation across hospitals in the proportion diagnosed with and treated for bacterial CAP (median 27%, range 12%-42%). Compared with low CAP diagnosing hospitals, high diagnosing hospitals had higher rates of CAP-related revisits (0.6% [95% confidence interval: 0.5, 0.7] vs. 0.4% [0.4, 0.5], p = .04), chest radiographs (58% [53, 62] vs. 46% [41, 51], p = .02), and blood tests (43% [33, 53] vs. 26% [19, 35], p = .046). There were no significant differences in length of stay, all-cause revisits or readmissions, CAP-related readmissions, or costs.

CONCLUSION

There was wide variation across hospitals in the proportion of children with LRTIs who were treated for bacterial CAP. The lack of meaningful differences in clinical outcomes among hospitals suggests that some institutions may over-diagnose and overtreat bacterial CAP.

Factors Associated With Antibiotic Use for Children Hospitalized With Pneumonia

BACKGROUND

Antibiotics are frequently used for community-acquired pneumonia (CAP), although viral etiologies predominate. We sought to determine factors associated with antibiotic use among children hospitalized with suspected CAP.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective cohort study of children who presented to the emergency department (ED) and were hospitalized for suspected CAP. We estimated risk factors associated with receipt of ≥1 dose of inpatient antibiotics and a full treatment course using multivariable Poisson regression with an interaction term between chest radiograph (CXR) findings and ED antibiotic use. We performed a subgroup analysis of children with nonradiographic CAP.

RESULTS

Among 477 children, 60% received inpatient antibiotics and 53% received a full course. Factors associated with inpatient antibiotics included antibiotic receipt in the ED (relative risk 4.33 [95% confidence interval, 2.63-7.13]), fever (1.66 [1.22-2.27]), and use of supplemental oxygen (1.29 [1.11-1.50]). Children with radiographic CAP and equivocal CXRs had an increased risk of inpatient antibiotics compared with those with normal CXRs, but the increased risk was modest when antibiotics were given in the ED. Factors associated with a full course were similar. Among patients with nonradiographic CAP, 29% received inpatient antibiotics, 21% received a full course, and ED antibiotics increased the risk of inpatient antibiotics.

CONCLUSIONS

Inpatient antibiotic utilization was associated with ED antibiotic decisions, CXR findings, and clinical factors. Nearly one-third of children with nonradiographic CAP received antibiotics, highlighting the need to reduce likely overuse. Antibiotic decisions in the ED were strongly associated with decisions in the inpatient setting, representing a modifiable target for future interventions.

Validation of Prediction Models for Pneumonia Among Children in the Emergency Department

BACKGROUND

Several prediction models have been reported to identify patients with radiographic pneumonia, but none have been validated or broadly implemented into practice. We evaluated 5 prediction models for radiographic pneumonia in children.

METHODS

We evaluated 5 previously published prediction models for radiographic pneumonia (Neuman, Oostenbrink, Lynch, Mahabee-Gittens, and Lipsett) using data from a single-center prospective study of patients 3 months to 18 years with signs of lower respiratory tract infection. Our outcome was radiographic pneumonia. We compared each model's area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and evaluated their diagnostic accuracy at statistically-derived cutpoints.

RESULTS

Radiographic pneumonia was identified in 253 (22.2%) of 1142 patients. When using model coefficients derived from the study dataset, AUROC ranged from 0.58 (95% confidence interval, 0.52-0.64) to 0.79 (95% confidence interval, 0.75-0.82). When using coefficients derived from original study models, 2 studies demonstrated an AUROC >0.70 (Neuman and Lipsett); this increased to 3 after deriving regression coefficients from the study cohort (Neuman, Lipsett, and Oostenbrink). Two models required historical and clinical data (Neuman and Lipsett), and the third additionally required C-reactive protein (Oostenbrink). At a statistically derived cutpoint of predicted risk from each model, sensitivity ranged from 51.2% to 70.4%, specificity 49.9% to 87.5%, positive predictive value 16.1% to 54.4%, and negative predictive value 83.9% to 90.7%.

CONCLUSIONS

Prediction models for radiographic pneumonia had varying performance. The 3 models with higher performance may facilitate clinical management by predicting the risk of radiographic pneumonia among children with lower respiratory tract infection.

Impact of Viral Radiographic Features on Antibiotic Treatment for Pediatric Pneumonia

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

Chest radiograph (CXR) is routinely performed among children with suspected pneumonia, though it is not clear how specific radiographic findings impact antibiotic treatment for pneumonia. We evaluated the impact of viral radiographic features on antibiotic treatment among children undergoing pneumonia evaluation in the emergency department (ED).

METHODS

Children presenting to a pediatric ED who underwent a CXR for pneumonia evaluation were prospectively enrolled. Prior to CXR performance, physicians indicated their level of suspicion for pneumonia. The CXR report was reviewed to assess for the presence of viral features (peribronchial cuffing, perihilar markings, and interstitial infiltrate) as well as radiographic features suggestive of pneumonia (consolidation, infiltrate, and opacity). The relationship between viral radiographic features and antibiotic treatment was assessed based on the level of clinical suspicion for pneumonia prior to CXR.

RESULTS

Patients with normal CXRs (n = 400) and viral features alone (n = 370) were managed similarly, with 8.0% and 8.6% of patients receiving antibiotic treatment, respectively (P = .75). Compared with children with radiographic pneumonia (n = 174), patients with concurrent viral features and radiographic pneumonia (n = 177) were treated with antibiotics less frequently (86.2% vs 54.3%, P < .001). Among children with isolated viral features on CXR, antibiotic treatment rates were correlated with pre-CXR level of suspicion for pneumonia.

CONCLUSIONS

Among children with suspected pneumonia, the presence of viral features alone on CXR is not associated with increased rates of antibiotic use. Among children with radiographic pneumonia, the addition of viral features on CXR is associated with lower rates of antibiotic use, as compared to children with radiographic pneumonia alone.

Interrater Reliability of the Pediatric Asthma Score

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to determine the interrater reliability (IRR) of the Pediatric Asthma Score (PAS) and to evaluate the discriminative performance of this score to predict the need for hospital admission among children with acute asthma.

METHODS

A secondary analysis of prospective data was performed to compare triage nurse and study personnel PAS scores among children aged 6 to 18 years presenting to the emergency department with acute asthma. The IRR was determined by calculation of weighted Cohen κ with differences evaluated by Wilcoxon ranked pairs. Receiver operating characteristic curves were created to evaluate the predictive ability of PAS to determine the need for hospital admission.

RESULTS

One hundred one subjects were evaluated by both study personnel and a triage nurse with PAS score recorded. The IRR of the total PAS score was determined to be moderate (κ = 0.57) and acceptable, although lower than previously reported. Individual components of the PAS score demonstrated fair to substantial agreement. Receiver operating characteristic analysis demonstrated total PAS at emergency department triage to have poor test characteristics in predicting the need for hospital admission, whether PAS was determined by study personnel, triage nurse, or an average score (area under the curve, 0.62-0.65).

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, total PAS score demonstrated a moderate and acceptable level of IRR with a poor discriminative ability to determine the need for hospital admission at the time of ED triage.

Significance of Sonographic Subcentimeter, Subpleural Consolidations in Pediatric Patients Evaluated for Pneumonia

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the rates of radiographic pneumonia and clinical outcomes of children with suspected pneumonia and subcentimeter, subpleural consolidations on point-of-care lung ultrasound.

STUDY DESIGN

We enrolled a prospective convenience sample of children aged 6 months to 18 years undergoing chest radiography (CXR) for pneumonia evaluation in a single tertiary-care pediatric emergency department. Point-of-care lung ultrasound was performed by an emergency medicine physician with subsequent expert review. We determined rates of radiographic pneumonia and clinical outcomes in the children with subcentimeter, subpleural consolidations, stratified by the presence of larger (>1 cm) sonographic consolidations. The children were followed prospectively for 2 weeks to identify a delayed diagnosis of pneumonia.

RESULTS

A total of 188 patients, with a median age of 5.8 years (IQR, 3.5-11.0 years), were evaluated. Of these patients, 62 (33%) had subcentimeter, subpleural consolidations on lung ultrasound, and 23 (37%) also had larger (>1 cm) consolidations. Patients with subcentimeter, subpleural consolidations and larger consolidations had the highest rates of definite radiographic pneumonia (61%), compared with 21% among children with isolated subcentimeter, subpleural consolidations. Overall, 23 children with isolated subcentimeter, subpleural consolidations (59%) had no evidence of pneumonia on CXR. Among 16 children with isolated subcentimeter, subpleural consolidations and not treated with antibiotics, none had a subsequent pneumonia diagnosis within the 2-week follow-up period.

CONCLUSIONS

Children with subcentimeter, subpleural consolidations often had radiographic pneumonia; however, this occurred most frequently when subcentimeter, subpleural consolidations were identified in combination with larger consolidations. Isolated subcentimeter, subpleural consolidations in the absence of larger consolidations should not be viewed as synonymous with pneumonia; CXR may provide adjunctive information in these cases.

A Prediction Model for Pediatric Radiographic Pneumonia

BACKGROUND

Chest radiographs (CXRs) are frequently used in the diagnosis of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). We sought to construct a predictive model for radiographic CAP based on clinical features to decrease CXR use.

METHODS

We performed a single-center prospective study of patients 3 months to 18 years of age with signs of lower respiratory infection who received a CXR for suspicion of CAP. We used penalized multivariable logistic regression to develop a full model and bootstrapped backward selection models to develop a parsimonious reduced model. We evaluated model performance at different thresholds of predicted risk.

RESULTS

Radiographic CAP was identified in 253 (22.2%) of 1142 patients. In multivariable analysis, increasing age, prolonged fever duration, tachypnea, and focal decreased breath sounds were positively associated with CAP. Rhinorrhea and wheezing were negatively associated with CAP. The bootstrapped reduced model retained 3 variables: age, fever duration, and decreased breath sounds. The area under the receiver operating characteristic for the reduced model was 0.80 (95% confidence interval: 0.77-0.84). Of 229 children with a predicted risk of <4%, 13 (5.7%) had radiographic CAP (sensitivity of 94.9% at a 4% risk threshold). Conversely, of 229 children with a predicted risk of >39%, 140 (61.1%) had CAP (specificity of 90% at a 39% risk threshold).

CONCLUSIONS

A predictive model including age, fever duration, and decreased breath sounds has excellent discrimination for radiographic CAP. After external validation, this model may facilitate decisions around CXR or antibiotic use in CAP.

Development of the Novel Pneumonia Risk Score to Predict Radiographic Pneumonia in Children

BACKGROUND

The diagnosis of pneumonia in children is challenging, given the wide overlap of many of the symptoms and physical examination findings with other common respiratory illnesses. We sought to derive and validate the novel Pneumonia Risk Score (PRS), a clinical tool utilizing signs and symptoms available to clinicians to determine a child's risk of radiographic pneumonia.

METHODS

We prospectively enrolled children 3 months to 18 years in whom a chest radiograph (CXR) was obtained in the emergency department to evaluate for pneumonia. Before CXR, we collected information regarding symptoms, physical examination findings, and the physician-estimated probability of radiographic pneumonia. Logistic regression was used to predict the presence of radiographic pneumonia, and the PRS was validated in a distinct cohort of children with suspected pneumonia.

RESULTS

Among 1181 children included in the study, 206 (17%) had radiographic pneumonia. The PRS included age in years, triage oxygen saturation, presence of fever, presence of rales, and presence of wheeze. The area under the curve (AUC) of the PRS was 0.71 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.68-0.75), while the AUC of clinician judgment was 0.61 (95% CI: 0.56-0.66) (P < 0.001). Among 2132 children included in the validation cohort, the PRS demonstrated an AUC of 0.69 (95% CI: 0.65-0.73).

CONCLUSIONS

In children with suspected pneumonia, the PRS is superior to clinician judgment in predicting the presence of radiographic pneumonia. Use of the PRS may help efforts to support the judicious use of antibiotics and chest radiography among children with suspected pneumonia.

Factors Associated With Antibiotic Prescribing and Outcomes for Pediatric Pneumonia in the Emergency Department

OBJECTIVES

Chest radiographs (CXRs) are often performed in children with respiratory illness to inform the decision to prescribe antibiotics. Our objective was to determine the factors associated with clinicians' plans to treat with antibiotics prior to knowledge of CXR results and the associations between preradiograph plans with antibiotic prescription and return to medical care.

METHODS

Previously healthy children aged 3 months to 18 years with a CXR for suspected pneumonia were enrolled in a prospective cohort study in the emergency department. Our primary outcomes were antibiotic prescription or administration in the emergency department and medical care sought within 7 to 15 days after discharge. Inverse probability treatment weighting was used to limit bias due to treatment selection. Inverse probability treatment weighting was included in a logistic regression model estimating the association between the intention to give antibiotics and outcomes.

RESULTS

Providers planned to prescribe antibiotics prior to CXR in 68 children (34.9%). There was no difference in the presence of radiographic pneumonia between those with and without a plan for antibiotics. Children who had a plan for antibiotics were more likely to receive antibiotics than those without (odds ratio [OR], 6.39; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.7-11.0). This association was stronger than the association between radiographic pneumonia and antibiotic receipt (OR, 3.49; 95% CI, 1.98-6.14). Children prescribed antibiotics were more likely to seek care after discharge than children who were not (OR, 1.85; 95% CI, 1.13-3.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Intention to prescribe antibiotics based on clinical impression was the strongest predictor of antibiotic prescription in our study. Prescribing antibiotics may lead to subsequent medical care after controlling for radiographic pneumonia.

Predicting Mycoplasma pneumoniae and Chlamydophila pneumoniae in community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) pneumonia: epidemiological study of respiratory tract infection using multiplex PCR assays

Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is a common illness that can lead to mortality. β-lactams are ineffective against atypical pathogen including Mycoplasma pneumoniae. We used molecular examinations to develop a decision tree to predict atypical pathogens with CAP and to examine the prevalence of macrolide resistance in Mycoplasma pneumoniae. We conducted a prospective observational study of patients aged ≥ 18 years who had fever and respiratory symptoms and were diagnosed with CAP in one of two community hospitals between December 2016 and October 2018. We assessed combinations of clinical variables that best predicted atypical pathogens with CAP by classification and regression tree (CART) analysis. Pneumonia was defined as respiratory symptoms and new infiltration recognized on chest X-ray or chest computed tomography. We analyzed 47 patients (21 females, 44.7%, mean age: 47.6 years). Atypical pathogens were detected in 15 patients (31.9%; 12 Mycoplasma pneumoniae, 3 Chlamydophila pneumoniae). Ten patients carried macrolide resistant Mycoplasma pneumoniae (macrolide resistant rate 83.3%). CART analysis suggested that factors associated with presence of atypical pathogens were absence of crackles, age < 45 years, and LD ≥ 183 U/L (sensitivity 86.7% [59.5, 98.3], specificity 96.9% [83.8, 99.9]). ur simple clinical decision rules can be used to identify primary care patients with CAP that are at risk for atypical pathogens. Further research is needed to validate its usefulness in various populations.Trial registration Clinical Trial (UMIN trial ID: UMIN000035346).

Application of Machine Learning to Optimize Management of Children in Hospital with Lower Respiratory Tract Infection

Effective triage can help optimize the use of limited healthcare resources for managing paediatric patients with lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI), the primary cause of death worldwide for under 5 years old children. However, triage decisions do not consider medium to long term needs of hospitalized children. In this study, we aim to leverage data-driven methods using objective measures to predict the type of hospital stay (short or long). We used vital signs (heart rate, oxygen saturation, breathing rate, and temperature) recorded from 12,881 children admitted to paediatric intensive care units in China. We generated multiple features from each vital sign, and then used regularized logistic regression with 10-fold cross validation to test the generalizability of our models. We investigated the minimum number of recording days needed to provide a reliable estimate. We assessed model performance with Area Under the Curve (AUC) using Receiver Operating Characteristic. Our results show that each vital sign independently helps predict hospital stay and the AUC increases further when vital signs are combined. In addition, early prediction of the type of stay of a patient admitted for LRTI using vital signs is possible, even with using only one day of recordings. There is now a need to apply these predictive models to other populations to assess the generalizability of the proposed methods.

External validation of the RISC, RISC-Malawi, and PERCH clinical prediction rules to identify risk of death in children hospitalized with pneumonia

BACKGROUND

Existing scores to identify children at risk of hospitalized pneumonia-related mortality lack broad external validation. Our objective was to externally validate three such risk scores.

METHODS

We applied the Respiratory Index of Severity in Children (RISC) for HIV-negative children, the RISC-Malawi, and the Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) scores to hospitalized children in the Pneumonia REsearch Partnerships to Assess WHO REcommendations (PREPARE) data set. The PREPARE data set includes pooled data from 41 studies on pediatric pneumonia from across the world. We calculated test characteristics and the area under the curve (AUC) for each of these clinical prediction rules.

RESULTS

The RISC score for HIV-negative children was applied to 3574 children 0-24 months and demonstrated poor discriminatory ability (AUC = 0.66, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.58-0.73) in the identification of children at risk of hospitalized pneumonia-related mortality. The RISC-Malawi score had fair discriminatory value (AUC = 0.75, 95% CI = 0.74-0.77) among 17 864 children 2-59 months. The PERCH score was applied to 732 children 1-59 months and also demonstrated poor discriminatory value (AUC = 0.55, 95% CI = 0.37-0.73).

CONCLUSIONS

In a large external application of the RISC, RISC-Malawi, and PERCH scores, a substantial number of children were misclassified for their risk of hospitalized pneumonia-related mortality. Although pneumonia risk scores have performed well among the cohorts in which they were derived, their performance diminished when externally applied. A generalizable risk assessment tool with higher sensitivity and specificity to identify children at risk of hospitalized pneumonia-related mortality may be needed. Such a generalizable risk assessment tool would need context-specific validation prior to implementation in that setting.

Guideline Adherence in Diagnostic Testing and Treatment of Community-Acquired Pneumonia in Children

OBJECTIVES

The objective of this study was to determine emergency department (ED) physician adherence with the 2011 Pediatric Infectious Diseases Society (PIDS) and Infectious Diseases Society of America (IDSA) guidelines for outpatient management of children with mild-to-moderate community-acquired pneumonia (CAP).

METHODS

A cross-sectional survey of physicians on the American Academy of Pediatrics Section on Emergency Medicine Survey listserv was conducted. We evaluated ED physicians' reported adherence with the PIDS/IDSA guidelines through presentation of 4 clinical vignettes representing mild-to-moderate CAP of presumed viral (preschool-aged child), bacterial (preschool and school-aged child), and atypical bacterial (school-aged child) etiology.

RESULTS

Of 120 respondents with analyzable data (31.4% response rate), use of chest radiograph (CXR) was nonadherent to the guidelines in greater than 50% of respondents for each of the 4 vignettes. Pediatric emergency medicine fellowship training was independently associated with increased CXR use in all vignettes, except for school-aged children with bacterial CAP. Guideline-recommended amoxicillin was selected to treat bacterial CAP by 91.7% of the respondents for preschool-aged children and by 75.8% for school-aged children. Macrolide monotherapy for atypical CAP was appropriately selected by 88.2% and was associated with obtaining a CXR (adjusted odds ratio, 3.9 [95% confidence interval, 1.4-11.1]). Guideline-adherent antibiotic use for all vignettes was independently associated with congruence between respondent's presumed diagnosis and the vignette's intended etiologic diagnosis.

CONCLUSIONS

Reported ED CXR use in the management of outpatient CAP was often nonadherent to the PIDS/IDSA guidelines. Most respondents were adherent to the guidelines in their use of antibiotics. Strategies to increase diagnostic test accuracy are needed to improve adherence and reduce variation in care.

Proadrenomedullin Predicts Severe Disease in Children With Suspected Community-acquired Pneumonia

BACKGROUND

Proadrenomedullin (proADM), a vasodilatory peptide with antimicrobial and anti-inflammatory properties, predicts severe outcomes in adults with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) to a greater degree than C-reactive protein and procalcitonin. We evaluated the ability of proADM to predict disease severity across a range of clinical outcomes in children with suspected CAP.

METHODS

We performed a prospective cohort study of children 3 months to 18 years with CAP in the emergency department. Disease severity was defined as mild (discharged home), mild-moderate (hospitalized but not moderate-severe or severe), moderate-severe (eg, hospitalized with supplemental oxygen, broadening of antibiotics, complicated pneumonia), and severe (eg, vasoactive infusions, chest drainage, severe sepsis). Outcomes were examined using proportional odds logistic regression within the cohort with suspected CAP and in a subset with radiographic CAP.

RESULTS

Among 369 children, median proADM increased with disease severity (mild: median [IQR], 0.53 [0.43-0.73]; mild-moderate: 0.56 [0.45-0.71]; moderate-severe: 0.61 [0.47-0.77]; severe: 0.70 [0.55-1.04] nmol/L) (P = .002). ProADM was significantly associated with increased odds of developing severe outcomes (suspected CAP: OR, 1.68; 95% CI, 1.2-2.36; radiographic CAP: OR, 2.11; 95% CI, 1.36-3.38) adjusted for age, fever duration, antibiotic use, and pathogen. ProADM had an AUC of 0.64 (95% CI, .56-.72) in those with suspected CAP and an AUC of 0.77 (95% CI, .68-.87) in radiographic CAP.

CONCLUSIONS

ProADM was associated with severe disease and discriminated moderately well children who developed severe disease from those who did not, particularly in radiographic CAP.

Predictive Value of Clinician "Gestalt" in Pediatric Community-Acquired Pneumonia

OBJECTIVES

Validated prognostic tools for pediatric community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) do not exist. Thus, clinicians rely on "gestalt" in management decisions for children with CAP. We sought to determine the ability of clinician gestalt to predict severe outcomes.

METHODS

We performed a prospective cohort study of children 3 months to 18 years old presenting to a pediatric emergency department (ED) with lower respiratory infection and receiving a chest radiograph for suspected CAP from 2013 to 2017. Clinicians reported the probability that the patient would develop severe complications of CAP (defined as respiratory failure, empyema or effusion, lung abscess or necrosis, metastatic infection, sepsis or septic shock, or death). The primary outcome was development of severe complications.

RESULTS

Of 634 children, 37 (5.8%) developed severe complications. Of children developing severe complications after the ED visit, 62.1% were predicted as having <10% risk by the ED clinician. Sensitivity was >90% at the <1% predicted risk threshold, whereas specificity was >90% at the 10% risk threshold. Gestalt performance was poor in the low-intermediate predicted risk category (1%-10%). Clinicians had only fair ability to discriminate children developing complications from those who did not (area under the receiver operator characteristic curve 0.747), with worse performance from less experienced clinicians (area under the receiver operator characteristic curve 0.693).

CONCLUSIONS

Clinicians have only fair ability to discriminate children with CAP who develop severe complications from those who do not. Clinician gestalt performs best at very low or higher predicted risk thresholds, yet many children fall in the low-moderate predicted risk range in which clinician gestalt is limited. Evidence-based prognostic tools likely can improve on clinician gestalt, particularly when risk is low-moderate.

Radiographic Pneumonia in Febrile Infants 60 Days and Younger

OBJECTIVE

Few prospective studies have assessed the occurrence of radiographic pneumonia in young febrile infants. We analyzed factors associated with radiographic pneumonias in febrile infants 60 days or younger evaluated in pediatric emergency departments.

STUDY DESIGN

We conducted a planned secondary analysis of a prospective cohort study within 26 emergency departments in a pediatric research network from 2008 to 2013. Febrile (≥38°C) infants 60 days or younger who received chest radiographs were included. Chest radiograph reports were categorized as "no," "possible," or "definite" pneumonia. We compared demographics, Yale Observation Scale scores (>10 implying ill appearance), laboratory markers, blood cultures, and viral testing among groups.

RESULTS

Of 4778 infants, 1724 (36.1%) had chest radiographs performed; 2.7% (n = 46) had definite pneumonias, and 3.9% (n = 67) had possible pneumonias. Patients with definite (13/46 [28.3%]) or possible (15/67 [22.7%]) pneumonias more frequently had Yale Observation Scale score >10 compared with those without pneumonias (210/1611 [13.2%], P = 0.002) in univariable and multivariable analyses. Median white blood cell count (WBC), absolute neutrophil count (ANC), and procalcitonin (PCT) were higher in the definite (WBC, 11.5 [interquartile range, 9.8-15.5]; ANC, 5.0 [3.2-7.6]; PCT, 0.4 [0.2-2.1]) versus no pneumonia (WBC, 10.0 [7.6-13.3]; ANC, 3.4 [2.1-5.4]; PCT, 0.2 [0.2-0.3]; WBC, P = 0.006; ANC, P = 0.002; PCT, P = 0.046) groups, but of unclear clinical significance. There were no cases of bacteremia in the definite pneumonia group. Viral infections were more frequent in groups with definite (25/38 [65.8%]) and possible (28/55 [50.9%]) pneumonias than no pneumonias (534/1185 [45.1%], P = 0.02).

CONCLUSIONS

Radiographic pneumonias were uncommon, often had viruses detected, and were associated with ill appearance, but few other predictors, in febrile infants 60 days or younger.

Emergency department treatment of asthma in children: A review

Asthma is the most common chronic illness in children, with >700,000 emergency department (ED) visits each year. Asthma is a respiratory disease characterized by a combination of airway inflammation, bronchoconstriction, bronchial hyperresponsiveness, and variable outflow obstruction, with clinical presentations ranging from mild to life-threatening. Standardized ED treatment can improve patient outcomes, including fewer hospital admissions. Informed by the most recent guidelines, this review focuses on the optimal approach to diagnosis and treatment of children with acute asthma exacerbations who present to the ED.

Predictive value of pulse oximetry for mortality in infants and children presenting to primary care with clinical pneumonia in rural Malawi: A data linkage study

BACKGROUND

The mortality impact of pulse oximetry use during infant and childhood pneumonia management at the primary healthcare level in low-income countries is unknown. We sought to determine mortality outcomes of infants and children diagnosed and referred using clinical guidelines with or without pulse oximetry in Malawi.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We conducted a data linkage study of prospective health facility and community case and mortality data. We matched prospectively collected community health worker (CHW) and health centre (HC) outpatient data to prospectively collected hospital and community-based mortality surveillance outcome data, including episodes followed up to and deaths within 30 days of pneumonia diagnosis amongst children 0-59 months old. All data were collected in Lilongwe and Mchinji districts, Malawi, from January 2012 to June 2014. We determined differences in mortality rates using <90% and <93% oxygen saturation (SpO2) thresholds and World Health Organization (WHO) and Malawi clinical guidelines for referral. We used unadjusted and adjusted (for age, sex, respiratory rate, and, in analyses of HC data only, Weight for Age Z-score [WAZ]) regression to account for interaction between SpO2 threshold (pulse oximetry) and clinical guidelines, clustering by child, and CHW or HC catchment area. We matched CHW and HC outpatient data to hospital inpatient records to explore roles of pulse oximetry and clinical guidelines on hospital attendance after referral. From 7,358 CHW and 6,546 HC pneumonia episodes, we linked 417 CHW and 695 HC pneumonia episodes to 30-day mortality outcomes: 16 (3.8%) CHW and 13 (1.9%) HC patients died. SpO2 thresholds of <90% and <93% identified 1 (6%) of the 16 CHW deaths that were unidentified by integrated community case management (iCCM) WHO referral protocol and 3 (23%) and 4 (31%) of the 13 HC deaths, respectively, that were unidentified by the integrated management of childhood illness (IMCI) WHO protocol. Malawi IMCI referral protocol, which differs from WHO protocol at the HC level and includes chest indrawing, identified all but one of these deaths. SpO2 < 90% predicted death independently of WHO danger signs compared with SpO2 ≥ 90%: HC Risk Ratio (RR), 9.37 (95% CI: 2.17-40.4, p = 0.003); CHW RR, 6.85 (1.15-40.9, p = 0.035). SpO2 < 93% was also predictive versus SpO2 ≥ 93% at HC level: RR, 6.68 (1.52-29.4, p = 0.012). Hospital referrals and outpatient episodes with referral decision indications were associated with mortality. A substantial proportion of those referred were not found admitted in the inpatients within 7 days of referral advice. All 12 deaths in 73 hospitalised children occurred within 24 hours of arrival in the hospital, which highlights delay in appropriate care seeking. The main limitation of our study was our ability to only match 6% of CHW episodes and 11% of HC episodes to mortality outcome data.

CONCLUSIONS

Pulse oximetry identified fatal pneumonia episodes at HCs in Malawi that would otherwise have been missed by WHO referral guidelines alone. Our findings suggest that pulse oximetry could be beneficial in supplementing clinical signs to identify children with pneumonia at high risk of mortality in the outpatient setting in health centres for referral to a hospital for appropriate management.

Repeat assessment of examination signs among children in Malawi with fast-breathing pneumonia

Background

As part of a randomised controlled trial of treatment with placebo versus 3 days of amoxicillin for nonsevere fast-breathing pneumonia among Malawian children aged 2–59 months, a subset of children was hospitalised for observation. We sought to characterise the progression of fast-breathing pneumonia among children undergoing repeat assessments to better understand which children do and do not deteriorate.

Methods

Vital signs and physical examination findings, including respiratory rate, arterial oxygen saturation measured by pulse oximetry (S_pO2), chest indrawing and temperature were assessed every 3 h for the duration of hospitalisation. Children were assessed for treatment failure during study visits on days 1, 2, 3 and 4.

Results

Hospital monitoring data from 436 children were included. While no children had S_pO2 90–93% at baseline, 7.4% (16 of 215) of children receiving amoxicillin and 9.5% (21 of 221) receiving placebo developed S_pO2 90–93% during monitoring. Similarly, no children had chest indrawing at enrolment, but 6.6% (14 of 215) in the amoxicillin group and 7.2% (16 of 221) in the placebo group went on to develop chest indrawing during hospitalisation.

Conclusion

Repeat monitoring of children with fast-breathing pneumonia identified vital and physical examination signs not present at baseline, including S_pO2 90–93% and chest indrawing. This information may support providers and policymakers in developing guidance for care of children with nonsevere pneumonia.

This study characterised the progression of fast-breathing pneumonia among children in Malawi. Repeat monitoring of children identified vital and physical exam signs not present at baseline, including oxygen saturation of 90–93% and chest indrawing.http://bit.ly/2vUlckS

The Epidemiology of Hypoxemic Pneumonia among Young Infants in Malawi

We describe hypoxemic pneumonia prevalence in outpatient and inpatient settings, in-hospital mortality, and clinical guideline performance for identifying hypoxemia in young infants in Malawi. In this retrospective analysis of a prospective cohort study, we investigate infants younger than 2 months participating in pneumonia surveillance at seven hospitals and 18 outpatient health centers in Malawi between 2011 and 2014. Logistic regression, multiple imputation with chained equations, and pattern mixture modeling were used to determine the association between peripheral capillary oxyhemoglobin saturation (SpO₂) levels and hospital mortality. We describe outpatient clinician hospital referral recommendations based on clinical characteristics and SpO₂ distributions. Among 1,879 analyzed cases, SpO₂ < 90% was more prevalent among outpatient health center cases compared with hospitalized cases (22.6% versus 13.5%, 95% CI: 17.6-28.4% and 12.0-15.3%, respectively). A larger proportion of hospitalized infants had signs of respiratory distress compared with infants at health centers (67.7% versus 56.6%, P < 0.001) and most hospitalized infants were boys (56.7% versus 40.6%, P < 0.001). An SpO₂ of 90-92% and < 90% was associated with similarly increased odds of in-hospital mortality (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 4.3 and 4.4, 95% CI: 1.7-11.1 and 1.8-10.5, respectively). Unrecorded, or unobtainable, SpO₂ was highly associated with mortality (n = 127, aOR: 18.1; 95% CI: 7.6-42.8). Four of 22 (18%) infants at health centers who did not meet clinical referral criteria had an SpO₂ ≤ 92%. Clinicians should consider hospital referral in young infants with a SpO₂ ≤ 92%. Infants with unobtainable SpO₂ readings should be considered a high-risk group, and hospital referral of these cases may be appropriate.

Antibiotic Use and Outcomes in Children in the Emergency Department With Suspected Pneumonia

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Antibiotic therapy is often prescribed for suspected community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) in children despite a lack of knowledge of causative pathogen. Our objective in this study was to investigate the association between antibiotic prescription and treatment failure in children with suspected CAP who are discharged from the hospital emergency department (ED).

METHODS

We performed a prospective cohort study of children (ages 3 months-18 years) who were discharged from the ED with suspected CAP. The primary exposure was antibiotic receipt or prescription. The primary outcome was treatment failure (ie, hospitalization after being discharged from the ED, return visit with antibiotic initiation or change, or antibiotic change within 7-15 days from the ED visit). The secondary outcomes included parent-reported quality-of-life measures. Propensity score matching was used to limit potential bias attributable to treatment selection between children who did and did not receive an antibiotic prescription.

RESULTS

Of 337 eligible children, 294 were matched on the basis of propensity score. There was no statistical difference in treatment failure between children who received antibiotics and those who did not (odds ratio 1.0; 95% confidence interval 0.45-2.2). There was no difference in the proportion of children with return visits with hospitalization (3.4% with antibiotics versus 3.4% without), initiation and/or change of antibiotics (4.8% vs 6.1%), or parent-reported quality-of-life measures.

CONCLUSIONS

Among children with suspected CAP, the outcomes were not statistically different between those who did and did not receive an antibiotic prescription.

Validation of the Pediatric Infectious Diseases Society-Infectious Diseases Society of America Severity Criteria in Children With Community-Acquired Pneumonia

Background

The Pediatric Infectious Diseases Society (PIDS)-Infectious Diseases Society of America (IDSA) guideline for community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) recommends intensive care unit (ICU) admission or continuous monitoring for children meeting severity criteria. Our objective was to validate these criteria.

Methods

This was a retrospective cohort study of children aged 3 months-18 years diagnosed with CAP in a pediatric emergency department (ED) from September 2014 through August 2015. Children with chronic conditions and recent ED visits were excluded. The primary predictor was the PIDS-IDSA severity criteria. Outcomes included disposition, and interventions and diagnoses that necessitated hospitalization (ie, need for hospitalization [NFH]).

Results

Of 518 children, 56.6% were discharged; 54.3% of discharged patients and 80.8% of those hospitalized for less than 24 hours were classified as severe. Of those admitted, 10.7% did not meet severity criteria; 69.5% met PIDS-IDSA severity criteria. Of those children, 73.1% did not demonstrate NFH. The areas under the receiver operator characteristic curves (AUC) for PIDS-IDSA major criteria were 0.63 and 0.51 for predicting disposition and NFH, respectively. For PIDS-IDSA minor criteria, the AUC was 0.81 and 0.56 for predicting disposition and NFH, respectively. The sensitivity, specificity, and likelihood ratios (LR)+ and LR- of the PIDS-IDSA criteria were 89%, 46%, 1.65, and 0.23 for disposition and 95%, 16%, 1.13, and 0.31 for NFH.

Conclusions

More than half of children classified as severe by PIDS-IDSA criteria were not hospitalized. The PIDS-IDSA CAP severity criteria have only fair ability to predict the need for hospitalization. New predictive tools specifically for children are required to improve clinical decision making.

Wheezing independently predicts viral infection in children with community-acquired pneumonia

AIM

To assess whether there was a difference in the frequency of symptoms and signs among children with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) with viral or bacterial infection.

METHODS

A prospective cross-sectional study was conducted in Salvador, Brazil. Children less than 5-years-old hospitalized with CAP were recruited. Viral or only bacterial infection was diagnosed by an investigation of 11 viruses and 8 bacteria. Bacterial infection was diagnosed by blood culture, detection of pneumococcal DNA in acute buffy coat, and serological tests. Viral infection was diagnosed by detection of respiratory virus in nasopharyngeal aspirate and serological tests. Viral infection comprised only viral or mixed viral-bacterial infection subgroups.

RESULTS

One hundred and eighty-eight patients had a probable etiology established as only viral (51.6%), mixed viral-bacterial (30.9%), and only bacterial infection (17.5%). Asthma was registered for 21.4%. Report of wheezing (47.4% vs 21.2%; P = 0.006), rhonchi (38.0% vs 15.2%; P = 0.01), and wheezing detected on physical examination (51.0% vs 9.1%; P < 0.001) were the differences found. Among children with asthma, detected wheezing was the only different finding when children with viral infection were compared with those with only bacterial infection (75.0% vs 0%; P = 0.008). By multivariable analysis, viral infection (AdjOR [95% CI]: 9.6; 95%CI: 2.7-34.0), asthma (AdjOR [95% CI]: 4.6; 95%CI: 1.9-11.0), and age (AdjOR [95% CI]: 0.95; 95%CI: 0.92-0.97) were independently associated with wheezing on physical examination. The positive predictive value of detected wheezing for viral infection was 96.3% (95% CI: 90.4-99.1%).

CONCLUSION

Wheezing detected on physical examination is an independent predictor of viral infection.

Diagnostic Testing and Antibiotic Use in Young Children With Community-Acquired Pneumonia in the United States, 2008-2015

Diagnostic testing and antibiotics are not routinely recommended for young children with community-acquired pneumonia. In a national sample of >6 million outpatient 1- to 6-year-olds with community-acquired pneumonia between 2008 and 2015, a complete blood count was obtained for 8.6% (95% confidence interval [CI], 6.1%-11.1%), radiography was performed for 43% (95% CI, 36%-50%), and antibiotics were given for 73.9% (95% CI, 67.1%-80.7%). There were no changes in testing or antibiotic use over time.

Interexaminer reliability of pharyngeal injection and palatine tonsillar hypertrophy in a pediatric emergency department

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the interrater reliability of throat examinations in children according to the major and training stage.

STUDY DESIGN

We performed a prospective observational study of interrater reliability. The participants included physicians with various amounts of experience and majors who were working in an urban, tertiary hospital. We collected 20 photos of the throats of children who presented to the pediatric emergency department (ED) and performed 2 surveys (with or without medical history). The primary outcome was the interrater agreement for pharyngeal injection (PI) and palatine tonsillar hypertrophy (PTH), and the secondary outcome was the interrater agreement for PI and PTH in subgroups of examiners divided by major and duration of clinical experience.

RESULTS

Thirty-three examiners participated in this study. The overall percent agreement for PI was 0.669, and Fleiss' kappa was 0.296. The interrater reliability was similar before and after providing patients' medical history. The overall percent agreement for PTH was 0.408, and Kendall's W was 0.674. When the patients' medical history was provided, Kendall's W increased (0.692). In the subgroup analysis, Fleiss' kappa for PI ranged from 0.257 to 0.33, and Kendall's W for PTH ranged from 0.593 to 0.711.

CONCLUSION

Examiners' agreement for PTH was more reliable than that for PI when evaluating children who visited the ED. The interrater reliability did not improve with increased clinical experience. These findings should be considered in the examination of pharyngeal pathology.

Estimating Risk of Pneumonia in a Prospective Emergency Department Cohort

OBJECTIVE

To improve the prediction of pediatric pneumonia by developing a series of models based on clinically distinct subgroups. We hypothesized that these subgroup models would provide superior estimates of pneumonia risk compared with a single pediatric model.

STUDY DESIGN

We conducted a secondary analysis of a prospective cohort being evaluated for radiographic pneumonia in an urban pediatric emergency department (ED). Using multivariate modeling, we created 4 models across subgroups stratified by age and presence of wheezing to predict the risk of pneumonia.

RESULTS

A total of 2351 patients were included in the study. In this series, the prevalence of pneumonia was 8.5%, and 21.6% were hospitalized. The highest prevalence of pneumonia was in children aged >2 years without wheezing (13.3%). Children aged <2 years with wheezing had the lowest prevalence of pneumonia (4.0%). The most accurate model was for children aged <2 years with wheezing (area under the curve [AUC], 0.80), and the poorest performing model was for those aged <2 years without wheezing (AUC, 0.64). The AUC of a combination of the 4 subgroup models was 0.76 (95% CI, 0.72-0.80). The precision of the models' estimates (expected vs observed) was ± 3.7%.

CONCLUSIONS

Using 4 complementary prediction models for pediatric pneumonia, an accurate risk of pneumonia can be calculated. These models can provide the basis for clinical decision making support to guide the use of chest radiographs and promote antibiotic stewardship.

Factors Associated With Pneumonia Severity in Children: A Systematic Review

Community-acquired pneumonia in children is associated with significant morbidity and mortality; however, data are limited in predicting which children will have negative outcomes, including clinical deterioration, severe disease, or development of complications. The Pediatric Infectious Diseases Society/Infectious Diseases Society of America (PIDS/IDSA) pediatric pneumonia guideline includes criteria that were modified from adult criteria and define pneumonia severity to assist with resource allocation and site-of-care decision-making. However, the PIDS/IDSA criteria have not been formally developed or validated in children. Definitions for mild, moderate, and severe pneumonia also vary across the literature, further complicating the development of standardized severity criteria. This systematic review summarizes (1) the current state of the evidence for defining and predicting pneumonia severity in children as well as (2) emerging evidence focused on risk stratification of children with pneumonia.

Consensus in Traditional Chinese Medical Diagnosis in Open Populations

Objectives: An acceptable level of diagnostic agreement is a prerequisite for consistent administration of treatment. It is critical for investigating effectiveness of different treatment approaches using multiple practitioners. To the best of our knowledge, no previous investigation of diagnostic consensus using open populations in Chinese medicine (CM) has been reported. Investigations restricted to individual medical conditions, such as have been usually studied, do not reveal any information as to what occurs in real world clinical settings. This knowledge gap led to the current study being conducted. Design/Location/Subjects/Interventions: Investigating diagnostic agreement specifically in Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) in an open population, two or three practitioners diagnosed 35 subjects at the University of Technology, Sydney (UTS), TCM clinic. The practitioners were restricted to a list of the 56 most frequently used TCM diagnoses at the UTS clinic. Up to three diagnostic patterns per subject could be selected, with nominated patterns scored between 1 and 5. Outcome measures: Agreement was determined with two criteria, both expressed as simple percentages: pattern and linearly weighted agreements. Results: The results showed that 23% of practitioners obtained pattern agreement, while 19% demonstrated weighted agreement. Conclusion: There appears to be very low diagnostic agreement between practitioners. This is an important finding. If unchallenged by further investigation, the recognition of such poor diagnostic consensus may lead to rejection of TCM theory before it has been adequately assessed. Diagnostic agreement must be improved so that future investigations into treatment effectiveness or mechanisms of action are made on a valid basis. Additionally, the current TCM diagnostic format must be altered to allow the application of chance-removed statistics or the calculation of a standard error with open populations. This article is the first of a series of three that report problems in TCM diagnostic reliability and proposes solutions to the issues outlined.