St. Louis encephalitis virus in wild birds during the 1990 south Florida epidemic: the importance of drought, wetting conditions, and the emergence of Culex nigripalpus (Diptera: Culicidae) to arboviral amplification and transmission

Ecological predictors of mosquito population and arbovirus transmission synchrony estimates

Quantifying synchrony in species population fluctuations and determining its driving factors can inform multiple aspects of ecological and epidemiological research and policy decisions. We examined seasonal mosquito and arbovirus surveillance data collected in Connecticut, United States from 2001 to 2020 to quantify spatial relationships in 19 mosquito species and 7 arboviruses timeseries accounting for environmental factors such as climate and land cover characteristics. We determined that mosquito collections, on average, were significantly correlated up to 10 km though highly variable among the examined species. Few arboviruses displayed any synchrony and significant maximum correlated distances never exceeded 5 km. After accounting for distance, mixed effects models showed that mosquito or arbovirus identity explained more variance in synchrony estimates than climate or land cover factors. Correlated mosquito collections up to 10-20 km suggest that mosquito control operations for nuisance and disease vectors alike must expand treatment zones to regional scales for operations to have population-level impacts. Species identity matters as well, and some mosquito species will require much larger treatment zones than others. The much shorter correlated detection distances for arboviruses reinforce the notion that focal-level processes drive vector-borne pathogen transmission dynamics and risk of spillover into human populations.

Prevalence of Mosquito Populations in the Caribbean Region of Colombia with Important Public Health Implications

Mosquito studies are important for understanding their role in the transmission of pathogens including arboviruses, parasites, and protozoa. This study characterized the prevalence of Culicidae fauna in rural and peri-urban areas with human populations in the Colombian Caribbean region to establish the risk of transmission of mosquito-borne pathogens. From 2016 to 2017, adult mosquitos were collected in Turbaco (Bolívar), Sabanalarga (Atlántico) and Pueblo Bello (Cesar). The collections in rural areas were in the forest fragments using CDC, Shannon, and human bait traps. In peri-urban areas, Prokopack aspirator collections were used inside households. Entomological and ecological indicators were also calculated. A total of 11,566 mosquito specimens, from 13 genera and 63 species, were collected. The forests fragments of Sabanalarga and Turbaco had the highest species abundance and richness. Turbaco had the highest adult Aedes aegypti index. Arbovirus vectors were among the identified species, including Ae. aegypti, Culex quinquefasciatus, Haemagogus janthinomys, Sabethes chloropterus, Aedes angustivittatus, Mansonia titillans, Coquillettidia venezuelensis and the subgenera Culex Melanoconion. Overall, the diversity and abundance of mosquitoes present in these municipalities establish a potential disease transmission risk by these vectors.

West Nile virus in Spain: Forecasting the geographical distribution of risky areas with an ecological niche modelling approach

West Nile virus (WNV), a well-known emerging vector-borne arbovirus with a zoonotic life cycle, represents a threat to both public and animal health. Transmitted by ornithophilic mosquitoes, its transmission is difficult to predict and even more difficult to prevent. The massive and unprecedented number of human cases and equid outbreaks in Spain during 2020 interpellates for new approaches. For the first time, we present an integrate analysis from a niche perspective to provide an insight to the situation of West Nile disease (WND) in Spain. Our modelling approach benefits from the combined use of global occurrence records of outbreaks of WND in equids and of its two alleged main vectors in Spain, Culex pipiens and Cx. perexiguus. Maps of the climatic suitability for the presence of the two vectors species and for the circulation of WNV are provided. The main outcome of our study is a map delineating the areas under certain climatic risk of transmission. Our analyses indicate that the climatic risk of transmission of WND is medium in areas nearby the south Atlantic coastal area of the Cadiz Gulf and the Mediterranean coast, and high in southwestern Spain. The higher risk of transmission in the basins of the rivers Guadiana and Guadalquivir cannot be attributed exclusively to the local abundance of Cx. pipiens, but could be ascribed to the presence and abundance of Cx. perexiguus. Furthermore, this integrated analysis suggests that the WNV presents an ecological niche of its own, not fully overlapping the ones of its hosts or vector, and thus requiring particular environmental conditions to succeed in its infection cycle.

Updated distribution maps of predominant Culex mosquitoes across the Americas

BACKGROUND

Estimates of the geographical distribution of Culex mosquitoes in the Americas have been limited to state and provincial levels in the United States and Canada and based on data from the 1980s. Since these estimates were made, there have been many more documented observations of mosquitoes and new methods have been developed for species distribution modeling. Moreover, mosquito distributions are affected by environmental conditions, which have changed since the 1980s. This calls for updated estimates of these distributions to understand the risk of emerging and re-emerging mosquito-borne diseases.

METHODS

We used contemporary mosquito data, environmental drivers, and a machine learning ecological niche model to create updated estimates of the geographical range of seven predominant Culex species across North America and South America: Culex erraticus, Culex nigripalpus, Culex pipiens, Culex quinquefasciatus, Culex restuans, Culex salinarius, and Culex tarsalis.

RESULTS

We found that Culex mosquito species differ in their geographical range. Each Culex species is sensitive to both natural and human-influenced environmental factors, especially climate and land cover type. Some prefer urban environments instead of rural ones, and some are limited to tropical or humid areas. Many are found throughout the Central Plains of the USA.

CONCLUSIONS

Our updated contemporary Culex distribution maps may be used to assess mosquito-borne disease risk. It is critical to understand the current geographical distributions of these important disease vectors and the key environmental predictors structuring their distributions not only to assess current risk, but also to understand how they will respond to climate change. Since the environmental predictors structuring the geographical distribution of mosquito species varied, we hypothesize that each species may have a different response to climate change.

Light pollution affects West Nile virus exposure risk across Florida

Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) present global health threats, and their emergences are often linked to anthropogenic change. Artificial light at night (ALAN) is one form of anthropogenic change that spans beyond urban boundaries and may be relevant to EIDs through its influence on the behaviour and physiology of hosts and/or vectors. Although West Nile virus (WNV) emergence has been described as peri-urban, we hypothesized that exposure risk could also be influenced by ALAN in particular, which is testable by comparing the effects of ALAN on prevalence while controlling for other aspects of urbanization. By modelling WNV exposure among sentinel chickens in Florida, we found strong support for a nonlinear relationship between ALAN and WNV exposure risk in chickens with peak WNV risk occurring at low ALAN levels. Although our goal was not to discern how ALAN affected WNV relative to other factors, effects of ALAN on WNV exposure were stronger than other known drivers of risk (i.e. impervious surface, human population density). Ambient temperature in the month prior to sampling, but no other considered variables, strongly influenced WNV risk. These results indicate that ALAN may contribute to spatio-temporal changes in WNV risk, justifying future investigations of ALAN on other vector-borne parasites.

Distribution and diversity of mosquitoes and Oropouche-like virus infection rates in an Amazonian rural settlement

Mosquito diversity and disease transmission are influenced by landscape modifications, i.e., vectors and pathogens previously found only in forests are now found close to human environments due to anthropic changes. This study determined the diversity and distribution of mosquitoes in forest environments in order to analyze the potential vectors of Amazonian forest arboviruses. Mosquitoes were collected by 1) vertical stratification from forest canopy and ground areas using Hooper Pugedo (HP) light traps and human attraction and 2) horizontal stratification using HP light traps in peridomicile, forest edge, and forest environments near the Rio Pardo rural settlement, Amazonas, Brazil. A total of 3,750 mosquitoes were collected, representing 46 species. 3,139 individuals representing 46 species were sampled by vertical stratification. Both the Shannon-Weaver diversity index (H’) and equitability (J’) were higher in the canopy than on the ground. 611 individuals representing 13 species were sampled by horizontal stratification. H’ decreased in the following order: forest edge > forest > peridomicile, and J’ was greater at the forest edge and smaller in the peridomicile environment. Moreover, H’ was higher for the human attraction collection method than the HP traps. A total of 671 pools were analyzed by RT-qPCR; three species were positive for Oropouche-like viruses (Ochlerotatus serratus, Psorophora cingulata, and Haemagogus tropicalis) and the minimum infection rate was 0.8%. The composition of mosquito species did not differ significantly between anthropic and forest environments in Rio Pardo. Some mosquito species, due to their abundance, dispersion in the three environments, and record of natural infection, were hypothesized to participate in the arbovirus transmission cycle in this Amazonian rural settlement.

Identification of Host Blood Meals of Mosquitoes (Diptera: Culicidae) Collected at the Aripo Savannas Scientific Reserve in Trinidad, West Indies

Surveillance for blood-fed female mosquitoes was performed between August 2015 and February 2016 at sites along the periphery of the Aripo Savannas Environmentally Reserve (ASSR) located in northeastern Trinidad, West Indies. We collected engorged female mosquitoes representing 13 species. DNA extractions from dissected abdomens were subjected to PCR amplification with three primer pairs targeting the mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase I and cytochrome b gene sequences. High-quality sequence information and host identification were obtained for 42 specimens representing eight mosquito species with at least one primer combination. A broad range of vertebrates including humans were identified, but the majority were nonhuman mammals, both domestic and wild. Domestic dogs were the most common host and may represent potential sentinel species for monitoring local enzootic arbovirus activity in Trinidad. Culex declarator Dyer and Knab and Culex nigripalpus Theobald were the most common blood-fed mosquito species comprising 79.1% of the total number identified. These species obtained blood meals from birds, nonhuman mammals, and human hosts, and therefore pose significant risks as potential bridge vectors for epizootic arbovirus transmission in the ASSR area as well as other sylvan areas in Trinidad. These data represent the first such results for Trinidad.

Parasites of seabirds: A survey of effects and ecological implications

Parasites are ubiquitous in the environment, and can cause negative effects in their host species. Importantly, seabirds can be long-lived and cross multiple continents within a single annual cycle, thus their exposure to parasites may be greater than other taxa. With changing climatic conditions expected to influence parasite distribution and abundance, understanding current level of infection, transmission pathways and population-level impacts are integral aspects for predicting ecosystem changes, and how climate change will affect seabird species. In particular, a range of micro- and macro-parasites can affect seabird species, including ticks, mites, helminths, viruses and bacteria in gulls, terns, skimmers, skuas, auks and selected phalaropes (Charadriiformes), tropicbirds (Phaethontiformes), penguins (Sphenisciformes), tubenoses (Procellariiformes), cormorants, frigatebirds, boobies, gannets (Suliformes), and pelicans (Pelecaniformes) and marine seaducks and loons (Anseriformes and Gaviiformes). We found that the seabird orders of Charadriiformes and Procellariiformes were most represented in the parasite-seabird literature. While negative effects were reported in seabirds associated with all the parasite groups, most effects have been studied in adults with less information known about how parasites may affect chicks and fledglings. We found studies most often reported on negative effects in seabird hosts during the breeding season, although this is also the time when most seabird research occurs. Many studies report that external factors such as condition of the host, pollution, and environmental conditions can influence the effects of parasites, thus cumulative effects likely play a large role in how parasites influence seabirds at both the individual and population level. With an increased understanding of parasite-host dynamics it is clear that major environmental changes, often those associated with human activities, can directly or indirectly affect the distribution, abundance, or virulence of parasites and pathogens.

Wetland characteristics linked to broad-scale patterns in Culiseta melanura abundance and eastern equine encephalitis virus infection

BACKGROUND

Eastern equine encephalitis virus (EEEV) is an expanding mosquito-borne threat to humans and domestic animal populations in the northeastern United States. Outbreaks of EEEV are challenging to predict due to spatial and temporal uncertainty in the abundance and viral infection of Cs. melanura, the principal enzootic vector. EEEV activity may be closely linked to wetlands because they provide essential habitat for mosquito vectors and avian reservoir hosts. However, wetlands are not homogeneous and can vary by vegetation, connectivity, size, and inundation patterns. Wetlands may also have different effects on EEEV transmission depending on the assessed spatial scale. We investigated associations between wetland characteristics and Cs. melanura abundance and infection with EEEV at multiple spatial scales in Connecticut, USA.

RESULTS

Our findings indicate that wetland vegetative characteristics have strong associations with Cs. melanura abundance. Deciduous and evergreen forested wetlands were associated with higher Cs. melanura abundance, likely because these wetlands provide suitable subterranean habitat for Cs. melanura development. In contrast, Cs. melanura abundance was negatively associated with emergent and scrub/shrub wetlands, and wetland connectivity to streams. These relationships were generally strongest at broad spatial scales. Additionally, the relationships between wetland characteristics and EEEV infection in Cs. melanura were generally weak. However, Cs. melanura abundance was strongly associated with EEEV infection, suggesting that wetland-associated changes in abundance may be indirectly linked to EEEV infection in Cs. melanura. Finally, we found that wet hydrological conditions during the transmission season and during the fall/winter preceding the transmission season were associated with higher Cs. melanura abundance and EEEV infection, indicating that wet conditions are favorable for EEEV transmission.

CONCLUSIONS

These results expand the broad-scale understanding of the effects of wetlands on EEEV transmission and help to reduce the spatial and temporal uncertainty associated with EEEV outbreaks.

Spatio-Temporal Distribution of Vector-Host Contact (VHC) Ratios and Ecological Niche Modeling of the West Nile Virus Mosquito Vector, Culex quinquefasciatus, in the City of New Orleans, LA, USA

The consistent sporadic transmission of West Nile Virus (WNV) in the city of New Orleans justifies the need for distribution risk maps highlighting human risk of mosquito bites. We modeled the influence of biophysical and socioeconomic metrics on the spatio-temporal distributions of presence/vector-host contact (VHC) ratios of WNV vector, Culex quinquefasciatus, within their flight range. Biophysical and socioeconomic data were extracted within 5-km buffer radii around sampling localities of gravid female Culex quinquefasciatus. The spatio-temporal correlations between VHC data and 33 variables, including climate, land use-land cover (LULC), socioeconomic, and land surface terrain were analyzed using stepwise linear regression models (RM). Using MaxEnt, we developed a distribution model using the correlated predicting variables. Only 12 factors showed significant correlations with spatial distribution of VHC ratios (R² = 81.62, p < 0.01). Non-forested wetland (NFWL), tree density (TD) and residential-urban (RU) settings demonstrated the strongest relationship. The VHC ratios showed monthly environmental resilience in terms of number and type of influential factors. The highest prediction power of RU and other urban and built up land (OUBL), was demonstrated during May-August. This association was positively correlated with the onset of the mosquito WNV infection rate during June. These findings were confirmed by the Jackknife analysis in MaxEnt and independently collected field validation points. The spatial and temporal correlations of VHC ratios and their response to the predicting variables are discussed.

Ecological niche modeling of mosquito vectors of West Nile virus in St. John's County, Florida, USA

Background

The lack of available vaccines and consistent sporadic transmission of WNV justify the need for mosquito vector control and prediction of their geographic distribution. However, the distribution of WNV transmission is dependent on the mosquito vector and the ecological requirements, which vary from one place to another.

Methods

Presence/density data of two WNV mosquito vectors, Culex nigripalpus and Cx. quinquefasciatus, was extracted within 5 km buffer zones around seropositive records of sentinel chickens in order to delineate their predicting variables and model the habitat suitability of probable infective mosquito using MaxEnt software. Different correlations between density data of the extracted mosquito vectors and 27 climate, land use-land cover, and land surface terrain variables were analyzed using linear regression analysis. Accordingly, the correlated predicting variables were used in building up habitat suitability model for the occurrence records of both mosquito vectors using MaxEnt.

Results

The density of both WNV mosquito vectors showed variation in their ecological requirements. Eight predicting variables, out of 27, had significant influence on density of Cx. nigripalpus. Precipitation of driest months was shown to be the best predicting variable for the density of this vector (R² = 41.70). Whereas, two variables were proven to predict the distribution of Cx. quinquefasciatus density. Vegetation showed the maximum predicting gain to the density of this mosquito vector (R² = 15.74), where nestling birds, in particular exotics, are found. Moreover, Jackknife analysis in MaxEnt demonstrated that urbanization and vegetation data layers significantly contribute in predicting habitat suitability of Cx. nigripalpus and Cx. quinquefasciatus occurrence, respectively, which justifies the contribution of the former in urban and the latter in epizootic transmission cycles of WNV. In addition, habitat suitability risk maps were produced for both vectors in response to their predicting variables.

Conclusions

For the first time in the study area, a quantitative relationship between 27 predicting variables and two WNV mosquito vectors within their foraging habitats was highlighted at the local scale. Accordingly, the predicting variables were used to produce a practical distribution map of probable infective mosquito vectors. This substantially helps in determining where suitable habitats are found. This will potentially help in designing target surveillance and control programmes, saving money, time and man-power. However, the suitability risk maps should be updated when serological and entomological data updates are available.

Diversity and abundance of mosquitoes (Diptera:Culicidae) in an urban park: larval habitats and temporal variation

Urban parks are areas designated for human recreation but also serve as shelter and refuge for populations of several species of native fauna, both migratory and introduced. In Brazil, the effect of annual climate variations on Aedes aegypti and dengue epidemics in large cities like São Paulo is well known, but little is known about how such variations can affect the diversity of mosquito vectors in urban parks and the risk of disease transmission by these vectors. This study investigates the influence of larval habitats and seasonal factors on the diversity and abundance of Culicidae fauna in Anhanguera Park, one of the largest remaining green areas in the city of São Paulo. Species composition and richness and larval habitats were identified. Seasonality (cold-dry and hot-rainy periods) and year were considered as explanatory variables and the models selection approach was developed to investigate the relationship of these variables with mosquito diversity and abundance. A total of 11,036 specimens from 57 taxa distributed in 13 genera were collected. Culex nigripalpus, Cx. quinquefasciatus and Aedes albopictus were the most abundant species. Bamboo internodes and artificial breeding sites showed higher abundance, while ponds and puddles showed greater richness. Significant relationships were observed between abundance and seasonality, with a notable increase in the mosquitos abundance in the warm-rainy periods. The Shannon and Berger-Parker indices were related with interaction between seasonality and year, however separately these predictors showed no relationship with ones. The increased abundance of mosquitoes in warm-rainy months and the fact that some of the species are epidemiologically important increase not only the risk of pathogen transmission to people who frequent urban parks but also the nuisance represented by insect bites. The findings of this study highlight the importance of knowledge of culicid ecology in green areas in urban environments.

Climate Change, Drought and Human Health in Canada

Droughts have been recorded all across Canada and have had significant impacts on individuals and communities. With climate change, projections suggest an increasing risk of drought in Canada, particularly in the south and interior. However, there has been little research on the impacts of drought on human health and the implications of a changing climate. A review of the Canadian, U.S. and international literature relevant to the Canadian context was conducted to better define these impacts and adaptations available to protect health. Drought can impact respiratory health, mental health, illnesses related to exposure to toxins, food/water security, rates of injury and infectious diseases (including food-, water- and vector-borne diseases). A range of direct and indirect adaptation (e.g., agricultural adaptation) options exist to cope with drought. Many have already been employed by public health officials, such as communicable disease monitoring and surveillance and public education and outreach. However, gaps exist in our understanding of the impacts of short-term vs. prolonged drought on the health of Canadians, projections of drought and its characteristics at the regional level and the effectiveness of current adaptations. Further research will be critical to inform adaptation planning to reduce future drought-related risks to health.

Can Horton hear the whos? The importance of scale in mosquito-borne disease

The epidemiology of vector-borne pathogens is determined by mechanisms and interactions at different scales of biological organization, from individual-level cellular processes to community interactions between species and with the environment. Most research, however, focuses on one scale or level with little integration between scales or levels within scales. Understanding the interactions between levels and how they influence our perception of vector-borne pathogens is critical. Here two examples of biological scales (pathogen transmission and mosquito mortality) are presented to illustrate some of the issues of scale and to explore how processes on different levels may interact to influence mosquito-borne pathogen transmission cycles. Individual variation in survival, vector competence, and other traits affect population abundance, transmission potential, and community structure. Community structure affects interactions between individuals such as competition and predation, and thus influences the individual-level dynamics and transmission potential. Modeling is a valuable tool to assess interactions between scales and how processes at different levels can affect transmission dynamics. We expand an existing model to illustrate the types of studies needed, showing that individual-level variation in viral dose acquired or needed for infection can influence the number of infectious vectors. It is critical that interactions within and among biological scales and levels of biological organization are understood for greater understanding of pathogen transmission with the ultimate goal of improving control of vector-borne pathogens.

Health effects of drought: a systematic review of the evidence

Introduction. Climate change projections indicate that droughts will become more intense in the 21 century in some areas of the world. The El Niño Southern Oscillation is associated with drought in some countries, and forecasts can provide advance warning of the increased risk of adverse climate conditions. The most recent available data from EMDAT estimates that over 50 million people globally were affected by drought in 2011. Documentation of the health effects of drought is difficult, given the complexity in assigning a beginning/end and because effects tend to accumulate over time. Most health impacts are indirect because of its link to other mediating circumstances like loss of livelihoods. Methods. The following databases were searched: MEDLINE; CINAHL; Embase; PsychINFO, Cochrane Collection. Key references from extracted papers were hand-searched, and advice from experts was sought for further sources of literature. Inclusion criteria for papers summarised in tables include: explicit link made between drought as exposure and human health outcomes; all study designs/methods; all countries/contexts; any year of publication. Exclusion criteria include: drought meaning shortage unrelated to climate; papers not published in English; studies on dry/arid climates unless drought was noted as an abnormal climatological event. No formal quality evaluation was used on papers meeting inclusion criteria. Results. 87 papers meeting the inclusion criteria are summarised in tables. Additionally, 59 papers not strictly meeting the inclusion criteria are used as supporting text in relevant parts of the results section. Main categories of findings include: nutrition-related effects (including general malnutrition and mortality, micronutrient malnutrition, and anti-nutrient consumption); water-related disease (including E coli, cholera and algal bloom); airborne and dust-related disease (including silo gas exposure and coccidioidomycosis); vector borne disease (including malaria, dengue and West Nile Virus); mental health effects (including distress and other emotional consequences); and other health effects (including wildfire, effects of migration, and damage to infrastructure). Conclusions. The probability of drought-related health impacts varies widely and largely depends upon drought severity, baseline population vulnerability, existing health and sanitation infrastructure, and available resources with which to mitigate impacts as they occur. The socio-economic environment in which drought occurs influences the resilience of the affected population. Forecasting can be used to provide advance warning of the increased risk of adverse climate conditions and can support the disaster risk reduction process. Despite the complexities involved in documentation, research should continue and results should be shared widely in an effort to strengthen drought preparedness and response activities.

Weather and landscape factors associated with adult mosquito abundance in southwestern Georgia, U.S.A

Mosquito community composition and population dynamics were compared to weather variables and land use/cover data during 2008 to determine which variables affected population dynamics at the J.W. Jones Ecological Research Center in southwestern Georgia. Models relating adult mosquito distributions to weather variables and time of year were compared using Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) model selection. Precipitation, temperature, humidity, and Keetch-Byram Drought Index were important factors correlated with mosquito abundance or presence/absence for the species considered. A cluster analysis, which grouped eight sites based on the percentages of land use/cover and hydric soils located in a 1-km radius surrounding collection sites, and an indicator species analysis were used to investigate the associations among 11 mosquito species and sites with similar land use/cover. Aedes albopictus (Skuse), Culex coronator Dyar & Knab, Culex quinquefasciatus Say, and Culex salinarius Coquillett were associated with sites that had the most anthropogenic influence, while Coquillettidia perturbans (Walker) and Psorophora ferox (von Humboldt) were associated with natural land cover such as wetlands and forested land. This study demonstrates that regional climate and land use/cover data can be predictive of the population dynamics of certain mosquito populations and is the first to examine how the distribution of Cx. coronator adults relate to land use/cover in the southeastern United States.

Weather and land cover influences on mosquito populations in Sioux Falls, South Dakota

This study compared the spatial and temporal patterns of Culex tarsalis Coquillett and Aedes vexans Meigen populations and examined their relationships with land cover types and climatic variability in Sioux Falls, SD. Between 24 and 30 CDC CO2-baited light traps were set annually in Sioux Falls from May to September 2005-2008. Land cover data were acquired from the 2001 National Land Cover Dataset and the percentages of selected land cover types were calculated within a 600-m buffer zone around each trap. Meteorological information was summarized from local weather stations. Cx. tarsalis exhibited stronger spatial autocorrelation than Ae. vexans. Land cover analysis indicated that Cx. tarsalis was positively correlated with grass/hay, and Ae. vexans was positively correlated with wetlands. No associations were identified between irrigation and the host-seeking population of each species. Higher temperature in the current week and 2 wk prior and higher precipitation 3-4 wk before collection of host-seeking adult mosquitoes had positive influences on Cx. tarsalis abundance. Temperature in the current week and rainfall 2-3 wk before sampling had positive influences on Ae. vexans abundance. This study revealed the different influences of weather and land cover on important mosquito species in the Northern Great Plains region, which can be used to improve local vector control strategies and West Nile virus prevention efforts.

Age modifies the effect of body size on fecundity in Culex quinquefasciatus Say (Diptera: Culicidae)

Fecundity of mosquitoes can vary with many factors and can have a strong effect on population growth. This study reports the effects of body size, blood meal size, and age on the reproductive output of nulliparous Culex quinquefasciatus, a vector of arboviruses and other pathogens. Mated adult female mosquitoes from a colony were reared under standard conditions and fed on chickens at different ages post-eclosion. Blood meal size and wing length were recorded, as well as the number of eggs in the first-cycle egg raft. Each of these factors had a significant influence on fecundity considered in a simple regression context. Multiple regression analysis revealed a significant interaction effect between age and body size on fecundity. Up to 13 days of age, fecundity was positively correlated with body size, but in mosquitoes older than 13 days, this relationship was not significantly different from zero. These results are discussed in terms of the known physiology of this and other species.

Environmental risk factors associated with West Nile virus clinical disease in Florida horses

The objective of this study was to examine the extrinsic risk factors of West Nile virus (WNV) clinical disease in Florida horses as established from confirmed and negative horses tested within the state from 2001 to 2003. An Arboviral Case Information Form (ACF) was submitted by a referring veterinarian at the time of testing to the Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services on every horse suspected of a viral encephalitis in Florida. A follow-up survey that focused on arbovirus prevention and farm ecology was created and mailed to the owner of each tested horse. Data from the follow-up survey indicated peak WNV prevalence in the late summer months in Florida. Quarter horses were the most commonly affected breed. The WNV vaccine was highly protective and natural water on the property also had a protective association. Factors that increased the risk of WNV to horses were the use of fans and a stable construction of solid wood or cement. Some risk indicators were dead birds on the property and other ill animals on the property. Data from this retrospective study have helped identify factors associated with WNV transmission in equines in Florida. Horses that have not been vaccinated and show clinical signs of arboviral infection from June to November should be tested for WNV. Horses that have been vaccinated and show clinical signs should be tested when the vaccination was administered within 1 month or greater than 6 months prior to the onset of clinical symptoms associated with WN infection.

Severe winter freezes enhance St. Louis encephalitis virus amplification and epidemic transmission in peninsular Florida

Mosquito-borne arboviral epidemics tend to strike without warning. The driving force for these epidemics is a combination of biotic (vector, amplification host, and virus) and abiotic (meteorological conditions, especially rainfall and temperature) factors. Abiotic factors that facilitate the synchronization and interaction of vector and amplification host populations favor epidemic amplification and transmission. In Florida, epidemics of St. Louis encephalitis (SLE) virus (family Flaviviridae, genus Flavivirus, SLEV) have been preceded by major freezes one or two winters before the onset of human cases. Here, we analyze the relationship between severe winter freezes and epidemic SLEV transmission in peninsular Florida and show that there is a significant relationship between the transmission of SLEV and these severe freezes. We propose that by killing cold-sensitive understory vegetation in the mid-peninsular region of Florida, freezes enhance the reproductive success of ground-feeding avian amplification hosts, especially mourning doves and common grackles. In conjunction with other appropriate environmental signals, increased avian reproductive success may enhance SLEV and West Nile (WN) virus amplification and result in SLE and WN epidemics during years when all of the biological cycles are properly synchronized. The knowledge that winter freezes in Florida may enhance the amplification and epidemic transmission of SLE and WN viruses facilitates arboviral tracking and prediction of human risk of SLE and WN infection during the transmission season.

Infectious disease in a warming world: how weather influenced West Nile virus in the United States (2001-2005)

BACKGROUND

The effects of weather on West Nile virus (WNV) mosquito populations in the United States have been widely reported, but few studies assess their overall impact on transmission to humans.

OBJECTIVES

We investigated meteorologic conditions associated with reported human WNV cases in the United States.

METHODS

We conducted a case-crossover study to assess 16,298 human WNV cases reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention from 2001 to 2005. The primary outcome measures were the incidence rate ratio of disease occurrence associated with mean weekly maximum temperature, cumulative weekly temperature, mean weekly dew point temperature, cumulative weekly precipitation, and the presence of > or = 1 day of heavy rainfall (> or = 50 mm) during the month prior to symptom onset.

RESULTS

Increasing weekly maximum temperature and weekly cumulative temperature were similarly and significantly associated with a 35-83% higher incidence of reported WNV infection over the next month. An increase in mean weekly dew point temperature was significantly associated with a 9-38% higher incidence over the subsequent 3 weeks. The presence of at least 1 day of heavy rainfall within a week was associated with a 29-66% higher incidence during the same week and over the subsequent 2 weeks. A 20-mm increase in cumulative weekly precipitation was significantly associated with a 4-8% increase in incidence of reported WNV infection over the subsequent 2 weeks.

CONCLUSIONS

Warmer temperatures, elevated humidity, and heavy precipitation increased the rate of human WNV infection in the United States independent of season and each others' effects.

Using hydrologic conditions to forecast the risk of focal and epidemic arboviral transmission in peninsular Florida

The accurate forecasting and tracking of arboviral transmission is becoming increasingly critical for the early recognition and management of arboviral epidemics. Meteorological factors, especially rainfall and temperature, drive arboviral epidemics, but monitoring rainfall and temperature alone is not predictive of increased levels of vector-borne disease transmission. In Florida, model simulations of water table depth (WTD) provide a measure of drought, and they have been shown to provide an accurate forecast of arboviral transmission. Here, we tracked WTD in two peninsular Florida regions where focal West Nile virus (family Flaviviridae, genus Flavivirus, WNV) transmission was reported during 2004 and 2005. We compared the resulting WTD profiles with historical WTD simulations for Indian River County (IRC), FL, where two peninsular Florida St. Louis encephalitis virus epidemics had their epicenters in 1977 and 1990. In both of the regions where focal WNV transmission was reported during 2004 and 2005, the local WTD profiles approached the 1977 and 1990 IRC WTD profiles; however, differences in the local temporal sequence of hydrologic conditions were observed. These differences seem in part to explain why the focal WNV transmission during 2004 and 2005 failed to reach epidemic levels in peninsular Florida. These findings suggest that hydrologic monitoring, specifically WTD, may help determine the geographic extent, timing, and intensity of WNV transmission. We speculate that a more precise sequence of drought and wetting, including a secondary summer drying and wetting cycle, as occurred in IRC during 1977 and 1990, may provide the optimal hydrologic conditions for the expansion of an arbovirus outbreak from focal to epidemic. This study documents that monitoring hydrologic conditions, along with vector, avian amplification host, and virus population data, increases our ability to track and predict significant levels of arboviral transmission.

Transmission dynamics and changing epidemiology of West Nile virus

West Nile virus (WNV) is a flavivirus that is maintained in a bird-mosquito transmission cycle. Humans, horses and other non-avian vertebrates are usually incidental hosts, but evidence is accumulating that this might not always be the case. Historically, WNV has been associated with asymptomatic infections and sporadic disease outbreaks in humans and horses in Africa, Europe, Asia and Australia. However, since 1994, the virus has caused frequent outbreaks of severe neuroinvasive disease in humans and horses in Europe and the Mediterranean Basin. In 1999, WNV underwent a dramatic expansion of its geographic range, and was reported for the first time in the Western Hemisphere during an outbreak of human and equine encephalitis in New York City. The outbreak was accompanied by extensive and unprecedented avian mortality. Since then, WNV has dispersed across the Western Hemisphere and is now found throughout the USA, Canada, Mexico and the Caribbean, and parts of Central and South America. WNV has been responsible for >27,000 human cases, >25,000 equine cases and hundreds of thousands of avian deaths in the USA but, surprisingly, there have been only sparse reports of WNV disease in vertebrates in the Caribbean and Latin America. This review summarizes our current understanding of WNV with particular emphasis on its transmission dynamics and changing epidemiology.

Human infections associated with wild birds

Introduction

Wild birds and especially migratory species can become long-distance vectors for a wide range of microorganisms. The objective of the current paper is to summarize available literature on pathogens causing human disease that have been associated with wild bird species.

Methods

A systematic literature search was performed to identify specific pathogens known to be associated with wild and migratory birds. The evidence for direct transmission of an avian borne pathogen to a human was assessed. Transmission to humans was classified as direct if there is published evidence for such transmission from the avian species to a person or indirect if the transmission requires a vector other than the avian species.

Results

Several wild and migratory birds serve as reservoirs and/or mechanical vectors (simply carrying a pathogen or dispersing infected arthropod vectors) for numerous infectious agents. An association with transmission from birds to humans was identified for 10 pathogens. Wild birds including migratory species may play a significant role in the epidemiology of influenza A virus, arboviruses such as West Nile virus and enteric bacterial pathogens. Nevertheless only one case of direct transmission from wild birds to humans was found.

Conclusion

The available evidence suggests wild birds play a limited role in human infectious diseases. Direct transmission of an infectious agent from wild birds to humans is rarely identified. Potential factors and mechanisms involved in the transmission of infectious agents from birds to humans need further elucidation.

Reproductive phase locking of mosquito populations in response to rainfall frequency

The frequency of moderate to heavy rainfall events is projected to change in response to global warming. Here we show that these hydrologic changes may have a profound effect on mosquito population dynamics and rates of mosquito-borne disease transmission. We develop a simple model, which treats the mosquito reproductive cycle as a phase oscillator that responds to rainfall frequency forcing. This model reproduces observed mosquito population dynamics and indicates that mosquito-borne disease transmission can be sensitive to rainfall frequency. These findings indicate that changes to the hydrologic cycle, in particular the frequency of moderate to heavy rainfall events, could have a profound effect on the transmission rates of some mosquito-borne diseases.

Amplification due to spatial clustering in an individual-based model of mosquito-avian arbovirus transmission

Theory and observations indicate that spatial clustering of birds and mosquitoes may be necessary for epizootic amplification of arboviruses with avian zoonoses. In this paper, I present an individual-based model of zoonotic arbovirus transmission among birds and mosquitoes. The results of initial ensemble model simulations indicate that the co-location of a vector mosquito oviposition site with an infected bird roost increases the local vector-to-host density and increases the likelihood of arbovirus amplification within the infected roost. Such amplification also increases the likelihood of secondary amplification at other roost sites, produces higher vector and host infection rates, increases the time to virus extinction within the model population, and increases the total number of birds infected. Additional oviposition locations within the model domain also increase the likelihood of secondary amplification. These findings support the idea that spatial clustering of mosquitoes and birds may facilitate arbovirus amplification. This model provides a basis for future exploration of specific zoonotic transmission cycles, including West Nile virus, and could be used to test the efficacy of various control strategies.

Modeling and biological control of mosquitoes

Models can be useful at many different levels when considering complex issues such as biological control of mosquitoes. At an early stage, exploratory models are valuable in exploring the characteristics of an ideal biological control agent and for guidance in data collection. When more data are available, models can be used to explore alternative control strategies and the likelihood of success. There are few modeling studies that explicitly consider biological control in mosquitoes; however, there have been many theoretical studies of biological control in other insect systems and of mosquitoes and mosquito-borne diseases in general. Examples are used here to illustrate important aspects of designing, using and interpreting models. The stability properties of a model are valuable in assessing the potential of a biological control agent, but may not be relevant to a mosquito population with frequent environmental perturbations. The time scale and goal of proposed control strategies are important considerations when analyzing a model. The underlying biology of the mosquito host and the biological control agent must be carefully considered when deciding what to include in a model. Factors such as density dependent population growth in the host, the searching efficiency and aggregation of a natural enemy, and the resource base of both have been shown to influence the stability and dynamics of the interaction. Including existing mosquito control practices into a model is useful if biological control is proposed for locations with current insecticidal control. The development of Integrated Pest Management (IPM) strategies can be enhanced using modeling techniques, as a wide variety of options can be simulated and examined. Models can also be valuable in comparing alternate routes of disease transmission and to investigate the level of control needed to reduce transmission.

Achieving operational hydrologic monitoring of mosquitoborne disease

Mosquitoes and mosquitoborne disease transmission are sensitive to hydrologic variability. If local hydrologic conditions can be monitored or modeled at the scales at which these conditions affect the population dynamics of vector mosquitoes and the diseases they transmit, a means for monitoring or modeling mosquito populations and mosquitoborne disease transmission may be realized. We review how hydrologic conditions have been associated with mosquito abundances and mosquitoborne disease transmission and discuss the advantages of different measures of hydrologic variability. We propose that the useful application of any measure of hydrologic conditions requires additional consideration of the scales for both the hydrologic measurement and the vector control interventions that will be used to mitigate an outbreak of vectorborne disease. Our efforts to establish operational monitoring of St. Louis encephalitis virus and West Nile virus transmission in Florida are also reviewed.

Avian diversity and West Nile virus: testing associations between biodiversity and infectious disease risk

The emergence of several high profile infectious diseases in recent years has focused attention on our need to understand the ecological factors contributing to the spread of infectious diseases. West Nile virus (WNV) is a mosquito-borne zoonotic disease that was first detected in the United States in 1999. The factors accounting for variation in the prevalence of WNV are poorly understood, but recentideas suggesting links between high biodiversity and reduced vector-borne disease risk may help account for distribution patterns of this disease. Since wild birds are the primary reservoir hosts for WNV, we tested associations between passerine (Passeriform) bird diversity, non-passerine (all other orders) bird diversity and virus infection rates in mosquitoes and humans to examine the extent to which bird diversity is associated with WNV infection risk. We found t h at non-passerine species richness (number of non-passerine species) was significantly negatively correlated with both mosquito and human infection rates, whereas there was no significant association between passerine species richness and any measure of infection risk. Our findings suggest that non-passerine diversity may play a role in dampening WNV amplification rates in mosquitoes, minimizing human disease risk.

A dynamic transmission model of eastern equine encephalitis virus

Eastern equine encephalitis virus (EEEV) is one of several arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses) endemic to the United States. Interactions between arthropod (mosquito) vectors and avian amplification host populations play a significant role in the dynamics of arboviral transmission. Recent data have suggested the hypothesis that an increased rate of successful feeding on young-of-the-year (YOY) birds might play a role in the dynamics of EEEV transmission. To test this hypothesis, we developed a model to explore the effect of the interactions of the vectors and avian host populations on EEEV transmission. Sensitivity analyses conducted using this model revealed eleven parameters that were capable of disproportionately affecting the predicted level of EEEV infection in the vertebrate reservoir and vector populations. Of these, four parameters were related to the interaction of the vector with young-of-the-year birds. Furthermore, adult birds could not substitute for young-of-the-year in initiating and maintaining a predicted enzootic outbreak of EEEV. Taken together, the model predicted that young-of-the-year birds play a key role in establishing and maintaining enzootic outbreaks of EEEV.

Drought-induced amplification and epidemic transmission of West Nile virus in southern Florida

We show that the spatial-temporal variability of human West Nile (WN) cases and the transmission of West Nile virus (WNV) to sentinel chickens are associated with the spatial-temporal variability of drought and wetting in southern Florida. Land surface wetness conditions at 52 sites in 31 counties in southern Florida for 2001-2003 were simulated and compared with the occurrence of human WN cases and the transmission of WNV to sentinel chickens within these counties. Both WNV transmission to sentinel chickens and the occurrence of human WN cases were associated with drought 2-6 mo prior and land surface wetting 0.5-1.5 mo prior. These dynamics are similar to the amplification and transmission patterns found in southern Florida for the closely related St. Louis encephalitis virus. Drought brings avian hosts and vector mosquitoes into close contact and facilitates the epizootic cycling and amplification of the arboviruses within these populations. Southern Florida has not recorded a severe, widespread drought since the introduction of WNV into the state in 2001. Our results indicate that widespread drought in the spring followed by wetting during summer greatly increase the probability of a WNV epidemic in southern Florida.