Military participants at U.S. Atmospheric nuclear weapons testing--methodology for estimating dose and uncertainty

British nuclear test veteran family trios for the study of genetic risk

The risk of radiation effects in children of individuals exposed to ionising radiation remains an ongoing concern for aged veterans of the British nuclear testing programme. The genetic and cytogenetic family trio (GCFT) study is the first study to obtain blood samples from a group of British nuclear test veterans and their families for the purposes of identifying genetic alterations in offspring as a consequence of historical paternal exposure to ionising radiation. In this report, we describe the processes for recruitment and sampling, and provide a general description of the study population recruited. In total, blood samples were received from 91 (49 test and 42 control) families representing veteran servicemen from the army, Royal Air Force and Royal Navy. This translated to an overall response rate of 14% (49/353) for test veterans and 4% (42/992) for control veterans (excluding responders known to be ineligible). Due to the lack of dose information available, test veterans were allocated to a three-point exposure rank. Thirty (61%) test veterans were ranked in the lower group. Nineteen (39%) of the 49 test veterans were classified in the mid (5 veterans; 10%)/high (14 veterans; 29%) exposure ranks and included 12 veterans previously identified as belonging to the special groups or listed in health physics documents. An increased number of test veteran families (20%), compared with control families (5%), self-reported offspring with congenital abnormalities (p= 0.03). Whether this observation in this small group is reflective of the entire UK test veteran cohort or whether it is selection bias requires further work. The cohort described here represent an important and unique family trio grouping whose participation is enabling genetic studies, as part of the GCFT study, to be carried out. The outcomes of these studies will be published elsewhere. ISRCTN Registry: 17461668.

A million persons, a million dreams: a vision for a national center of radiation epidemiology and biology

BACKGROUND

Epidemiologic studies of radiation-exposed populations form the basis for human safety standards. They also help shape public health policy and evidence-based health practices by identifying and quantifying health risks of exposure in defined populations. For more than a century, epidemiologists have studied the consequences of radiation exposures, yet the health effects of low levels delivered at a low-dose rate remain equivocal.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The Million Person Study (MPS) of U.S. Radiation Workers and Veterans was designed to examine health effects following chronic exposures in contrast with brief exposures as experienced by the Japanese atomic bomb survivors. Radiation associations for rare cancers, intakes of radionuclides, and differences between men and women are being evaluated, as well as noncancers such as cardiovascular disease and conditions such as dementia and cognitive function. The first international symposium, held November 6, 2020, provided a broad overview of the MPS. Representatives from four U.S. government agencies addressed the importance of this research for their respective missions: U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD), and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The major components of the MPS were discussed and recent findings summarized. The importance of radiation dosimetry, an essential feature of each MPS investigation, was emphasized.

RESULTS

The seven components of the MPS are DOE workers, nuclear weapons test participants, nuclear power plant workers, industrial radiographers, medical radiation workers, nuclear submariners, other U.S. Navy personnel, and radium dial painters. The MPS cohorts include tens of thousands of workers with elevated intakes of alpha particle emitters for which organ-specific doses are determined. Findings to date for chronic radiation exposure suggest that leukemia risk is lower than after acute exposure; lung cancer risk is much lower and there is little difference in risks between men and women; an increase in ischemic heart disease is yet to be seen; esophageal cancer is frequently elevated but not myelodysplastic syndrome; and Parkinson's disease may be associated with radiation exposure.

CONCLUSIONS

The MPS has provided provocative insights into the possible range of health effects following low-level chronic radiation exposure. When the 34 MPS cohorts are completed and combined, a powerful evaluation of radiation-effects will be possible. This final article in the MPS special issue summarizes the findings to date and the possibilities for the future. A National Center for Radiation Epidemiology and Biology is envisioned.

Mortality from Leukemia, Cancer and Heart Disease among U.S. Nuclear Power Plant Workers, 1957-2011

BACKGROUND

The aim of the Million Person Study (MPS) of Low Dose Health Effects is to examine the level of radiation risk for chronic exposures received gradually over time and not acutely as was the case for the Japanese atomic bomb survivors. Nuclear power plant (NPP) workers comprise nearly 15 percent of the MPS. Leukemia, selected cancers, Parkinson's disease, ischemic heart disease (IHD) and other causes of death are evaluated.

METHODS AND MATERIAL

The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Radiation Exposure Information and Reporting System (REIRS) and the Landauer, Inc. dosimetry databases identified 135,193 NPP workers first monitored 1957-1984. Annual personal dose equivalents [Hp(10)] were available for each worker. Radiation records from all places of employment were sought. Vital status was determined through 2011. Mean absorbed doses to red bone marrow (RBM), esophagus, lung, colon, brain and heart were estimated by adjusting the recorded Hp(10) for each worker by scaling factors, accounting for exposure geometry and energy of the incident gamma radiation. Standardized mortality ratios (SMR) were calculated. Radiation risks were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models.

RESULTS

Nearly 50% of workers were employed for more than 20 years. The mean duration of follow-up was 30.2 y. Overall, 29,076 total deaths occurred, 296 from leukemia other than chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL), 3,382 from lung cancer, 140 from Parkinson's disease and 5,410 from IHD. The mean dose to RBM was 37.9 mGy (maximum 1.0 Gy; percent >100 mGy was 9.2%), 43.2 mGy to lung, 43.7 mGy to colon, 33.2 mGy to brain, and 43.9 mGy to heart. The SMRs (95% CI) were 1.06 (0.94;1.19) for leukemia other than CLL, 1.10 (1.07;1.14) for lung cancer, 0.90 (0.76;1.06) for Parkinson's disease, and 0.80 (0.78; 0.82) for IHD. The excess relative risk (ERR) per 100 mGy for leukemia other than CLL was 0.15 (90% CI 0.001; 0.31). For all solid cancers the ERR per 100 mGy (95% CI) was 0.01 (-0.03; 0.05), for lung cancer -0.04 (-0.11; 0.02), for Parkinson's disease 0.24 (-0.02; 0.50), and for IHD -0.01 (-0.06; 0.04).

CONCLUSION

Prolonged exposure to radiation increased the risk of leukemia other than CLL among NPP workers. There was little evidence for a radiation-association for all solid cancers, lung cancer or ischemic heart disease. Increased precision will be forthcoming as the different cohorts within the MPS are combined, such as industrial radiographers and medical radiation workers who were assembled and evaluated in like manner.

Mortality among workers at the Los Alamos National Laboratory, 1943-2017

BACKGROUND

During World War II (WWII), the Manhattan Engineering District established a secret laboratory in the mountains of northern New Mexico. The mission was to design, construct and test the first atomic weapon, nicknamed 'The Gadget' that was detonated at the TRINITY site in Alamogordo, NM. After WWII, nuclear weapons research continued, and the laboratory became the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The mortality experience of 26,328 workers first employed between 1943 and 1980 at LANL was determined through 2017. Included were 6157 contract workers employed by the ZIA Company. Organ dose estimates for each worker considered all sources of exposure, notably photons, neutrons, tritium, ²³⁸Pu and ²³⁹Pu. Vital status determination included searches within the National Death Index, Social Security Administration and New Mexico State Mortality Files. Standardized Mortality Ratios (SMR) and Cox regression models were used in the analyses.

RESULTS

Most workers (55%) were hired before 1960, 38% had a college degree, 25% were female, 81% white, 13% Hispanic and 60% had died. Vital status was complete, with only 0.1% lost to follow-up. The mean dose to the lung for the 17,053 workers monitored for radiation was 28.6 weighted-mGy (maximum 16.8 weighted-Gy) assuming a Dose Weighting Factor of 20 for alpha particle dose to lung. The Excess Relative Risk (ERR) at 100 weighted-mGy was 0.01 (95%CI -0.02, 0.03; n = 839) for lung cancer. The ERR at 100 mGy was -0.43 (95%CI -1.11, 0.24; n = 160) for leukemia other than chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL), -0.06 (95%CI -0.16, 0.04; n = 3043) for ischemic heart disease (IHD), and 0.29 (95%CI 0.02, 0.55; n = 106) for esophageal cancer. Among the 6499 workers with measurable intakes of plutonium, an increase in bone cancer (SMR 2.44; 95%CI 0.98, 5.03; n = 7) was related to dose. The SMR for berylliosis was significantly high, based on 4 deaths. SMRs for Hispanic workers were significantly high for cancers of the stomach and liver, cirrhosis of the liver, nonmalignant kidney disease and diabetes, but the excesses were not related to radiation dose.

CONCLUSIONS

There was little evidence that radiation increased the risk of lung cancer or leukemia. Esophageal cancer was associated with radiation, and plutonium intakes were linked to an increase of bone cancer. IHD was not associated with radiation dose. More precise evaluations will await the pooled analysis of workers with similar exposures such as at Rocky Flats, Savannah River and Hanford.

The Likelihood of Adverse Pregnancy Outcomes and Genetic Disease (Transgenerational Effects) from Exposure to Radioactive Fallout from the 1945 Trinity Atomic Bomb Test

The potential health consequences of the Trinity nuclear weapon test of 16 July 1945 at Alamogordo, New Mexico, are challenging to assess. Population data are available for mortality but not for cancer incidence for New Mexico residents for the first 25 y after the test, and the estimates of radiation dose to the nearby population are lower than the cumulative dose received from ubiquitous natural background radiation. Despite the estimates of low population exposures, it is believed by some that cancer rates in counties near the Trinity test site (located in Socorro County) are elevated compared with other locations across the state. Further, there is a concern about adverse pregnancy outcomes and genetic diseases (transgenerational or heritable effects) related to population exposure to fallout radiation. The possibility of an intergenerational effect has long been a concern of exposed populations, e.g., Japanese atomic bomb survivors, survivors of childhood and adolescent cancer, radiation workers, and environmentally exposed groups. In this paper, the likelihood of discernible transgenerational effects is discounted because (1) in all large-scale comprehensive studies of exposed populations, no heritable genetic effects have been demonstrated in children of exposed parents; (2) the distribution of estimated doses from Trinity is much lower than in other studied populations where no transgenerational effects have been observed; and (3) there is no evidence of increased cancer rates among the scientific, military, and professional participants at the Trinity test and at other nuclear weapons tests who received much higher doses than New Mexico residents living downwind of the Trinity site.

Mortality among U.S. military participants at eight aboveground nuclear weapons test series

BACKGROUND

Approximately 235,000 military personnel participated at one of 230 U.S. atmospheric nuclear weapons tests from 1945 through 1962. At the Nevada Test Site (NTS), the atomic veterans participated in military maneuvers, observed nuclear weapons tests, or provided technical support. At the Pacific Proving Ground (PPG), they served aboard ships or were stationed on islands during or after nuclear weapons tests.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Participants at seven test series, previously studied with high-quality dosimetry and personnel records, and the first test at TRINITY formed the cohort of 114,270 male military participants traced for vital status from 1945 through 2010. Dose reconstructions were based on Nuclear Test Personnel Review records, Department of Defense. Standardized mortality ratios (SMR) and Cox and Poisson regression models were used in the analysis.

RESULTS

Most atomic veterans were enlisted men, served in the Navy at the PPG, and were born before 1930. Vital status was determined for 96.8% of the veterans; 60% had died. Enlisted men had significantly high all-causes mortality SMR (1.06); officers had significantly low all-causes mortality SMR (0.71). The pattern of risk over time showed a diminution of the 'healthy soldier effect': the all-causes mortality SMR after 50 years of follow-up was 1.00. The healthy soldier effect for all cancers also diminished over time. The all-cancer SMR was significantly high after 50 years (SMR 1.10) primarily from smoking-related cancers, attributed in part to the availability of cigarettes in military rations. The highest SMR was for mesothelioma (SMR 1.56) which was correlated with asbestos exposure in naval ships. Prostate cancer was significantly high (SMR 1.13). Ischemic heart disease was significantly low (SMR 0.84). Estimated mean doses varied by organ were low; e.g., the mean red bone marrow dose was 6 mGy (maximum 108 mGy). Internal cohort dose-response analyses provided no evidence for increasing trends with radiation dose for leukemia (excluding chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL)) [ERR (95% CI) per 100 mGy -0.37 (-1.08, 0.33); n = 710], CLL, myelodysplastic syndrome, multiple myeloma, ischemic heart disease, or cancers of the lung, prostate, breast, and brain.

CONCLUSION

No statistically significant radiation associations were observed among 114,270 nuclear weapons test participants followed for up to 65 years. The 95% confidence limits were narrow and excluded mortality risks per unit dose that are two to four times higher than those reported in other investigations. Significantly elevated SMRs were seen for mesothelioma and asbestosis, attributed to asbestos exposure aboard ships.

Strengths and Weaknesses of Dosimetry Used in Studies of Low-Dose Radiation Exposure and Cancer

BACKGROUND

A monograph systematically evaluating recent evidence on the dose-response relationship between low-dose ionizing radiation exposure and cancer risk required a critical appraisal of dosimetry methods in 26 potentially informative studies.

METHODS

The relevant literature included studies published in 2006-2017. Studies comprised case-control and cohort designs examining populations predominantly exposed to sparsely ionizing radiation, mostly from external sources, resulting in average doses of no more than 100 mGy. At least two dosimetrists reviewed each study and appraised the strengths and weaknesses of the dosimetry systems used, including assessment of sources and effects of dose estimation error. An overarching concern was whether dose error might cause the spurious appearance of a dose-response where none was present.

RESULTS

The review included 8 environmental, 4 medical, and 14 occupational studies that varied in properties relative to evaluation criteria. Treatment of dose estimation error also varied among studies, although few conducted a comprehensive evaluation. Six studies appeared to have known or suspected biases in dose estimates. The potential for these biases to cause a spurious dose-response association was constrained to three case-control studies that relied extensively on information gathered in interviews conducted after case ascertainment.

CONCLUSIONS

The potential for spurious dose-response associations from dose information appeared limited to case-control studies vulnerable to recall errors that may be differential by case status. Otherwise, risk estimates appeared reasonably free of a substantial bias from dose estimation error. Future studies would benefit from a comprehensive evaluation of dose estimation errors, including methods accounting for their potential effects on dose-response associations.

Chromosome Translocations, Inversions and Telomere Length for Retrospective Biodosimetry on Exposed U.S. Atomic Veterans

It has now been over 60 years since U.S. nuclear testing was conducted in the Pacific islands and Nevada, exposing military personnel to varying levels of ionizing radiation. Actual doses are not well-established, as film badges in the 1950s had many limitations. We sought a means of independently assessing dose for comparison with historical film badge records and dose reconstruction conducted in parallel. For the purpose of quantitative retrospective biodosimetry, peripheral blood samples from 12 exposed veterans and 12 age-matched (>80 years) veteran controls were collected and evaluated for radiation-induced chromosome damage utilizing directional genomic hybridization (dGH), a cytogenomics-based methodology that facilitates simultaneous detection of translocations and inversions. Standard calibration curves were constructed from six male volunteers in their mid-20s to reflect the age range of the veterans at time of exposure. Doses were estimated for each veteran using translocation and inversion rates independently; however, combining them by a weighted-average generally improved the accuracy of dose estimations. Various confounding factors were also evaluated for potential effects on chromosome aberration frequencies. Perhaps not surprisingly, smoking and age-associated increases in background frequencies of inversions were observed. Telomere length was also measured, and inverse relationships with both age and combined weighted dose estimates were observed. Interestingly, smokers in the non-exposed control veteran cohort displayed similar telomere lengths as those in the never-smoker exposed veteran group, suggesting that chronic smoking had as much effect on telomere length as a single exposure to radioactive fallout. Taken together, we find that our approach of combined chromosome aberration-based retrospective biodosimetry provided reliable dose estimation capability, particularly on a group average basis, for exposures above statistical detection limits.

The Million Person Study, whence it came and why

PURPOSE

The study of low dose and low-dose rate exposure is of immeasurable value in understanding the possible range of health effects from prolonged exposures to radiation. The Million Person Study (MPS) of low-dose health effects was designed to evaluate radiation risks among healthy American workers and veterans who are more representative of today's populations than are the Japanese atomic bomb survivors exposed briefly to high-dose radiation in 1945. A million persons were needed for statistical reasons to evaluate low-dose and dose-rate effects, rare cancers, intakes of radioactive elements, and differences in risks between women and men.

METHODS AND MATERIALS

The MPS consists of five categories of workers and veterans exposed to radiation from 1939 to the present. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Health and Mortality study began over 40 years ago and is the source of ∼360,000 workers. Over 25 years ago, the National Cancer Institute (NCI) collaborated with the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to effectively create a cohort of nuclear power plant workers (∼150,000) and industrial radiographers (∼130,000). For over 30 years, the Department of Defense (DoD) collected data on aboveground nuclear weapons test participants (∼115,000). At the request of NCI in 1978, Landauer, Inc., (Glenwood, IL) saved their dosimetry databases which became the source of a cohort of ∼250,000 medical and other workers.

RESULTS

Overall, 29 individual cohorts comprise the MPS of which 21 have been or are under active study (∼810,000 persons). The remaining eight cohorts (∼190,000 persons) will be studied as resources become available. The MPS is a national effort with critical support from the NRC, DOE, National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), DoD, NCI, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Landauer, Inc., and national laboratories.

CONCLUSIONS

The MPS is designed to address the major unanswered question in radiation risk understanding: What is the level of health effects when exposure is gradual over time and not delivered briefly. The MPS will provide scientific understandings of prolonged exposure which will improve guidelines to protect workers and the public; improve compensation schemes for workers, veterans and the public; provide guidance for policy and decision makers; and provide evidence for or against the continued use of the linear nonthreshold dose-response model in radiation protection.

Estimation of Radiation Doses to U.S. Military Test Participants from Nuclear Testing: A Comparison of Historical Film-Badge Measurements, Dose Reconstruction and Retrospective Biodosimetry

Retrospective radiation dose estimations, whether based on physical or biological measurements, or on theoretical dose reconstruction, are limited in their precision and reliability, particularly for exposures that occurred many decades ago. Here, we studied living U.S. military test participants, believed to have received high-dose radiation exposures during nuclear testing-related activities approximately six decades ago, with two primary goals in mind. The first was to compare three different approaches of assessing past radiation exposures: 1. Historical personnel monitoring data alone; 2. Dose reconstruction based on varying levels of completeness of individual information, which can include film badge data; and 3. Retrospective biodosimetry using chromosome aberrations in peripheral blood lymphocytes. The second goal was to use the collected data to make the best possible estimates of bone marrow dose received by a group with the highest military recorded radiation doses of any currently living military test participants. Six nuclear test participants studied had been on Rongerik Atoll during the 1954 CASTLE Bravo nuclear test. Another six were present at the Nevada Test Site (NTS) and/or Pacific Proving Ground (PPG) and were believed to have received relatively high-dose exposures at those locations. All were interviewed, and all provided a blood sample for cytogenetic analysis. Military dose records for each test participant, as recorded in the Defense Threat Reduction Agency's Nuclear Test Review and Information System, were used as the basis for historical film badge records and provided exposure scenario information to estimate dose via dose reconstruction. Dose to bone marrow was also estimated utilizing directional genomic hybridization (dGH) for high-resolution detection of radiation-induced chromosomal translocations and inversions, the latter being demonstrated for the first time for the purpose of retrospective biodosimetry. As the true dose for each test participant is not known these many decades after exposure, this study gauged the congruence of different methods by assessing the degree of correlation and degree of systematic differences. Overall, the best agreement between methods, defined by statistically significant correlations and small systematic differences, was between doses estimated by a dose reconstruction methodology that exploited all the available individual detail and the biodosimetry methodology derived from a weighted average dose determined from chromosomal translocation and inversion rates. Employing such a strategy, we found that the Rongerik veterans who participated in this study appear to have received, on average, bone marrow equivalent doses on the order of 300-400 mSv, while the NTS/ PPG participants appear to have received approximately 250-300 mSv. The results show that even for nuclear events that occurred six decades in the past, biological signatures of exposure are still present, and when taken together, chromosomal translocations and inversions can serve as reliable retrospective biodosimeters, particularly on a group-average basis, when doses received are greater than statistically-determined detection limits for the biological assays used.

Recent Epidemiologic Studies and the Linear No-Threshold Model For Radiation Protection-Considerations Regarding NCRP Commentary 27

National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements Commentary 27 examines recent epidemiologic data primarily from low-dose or low dose-rate studies of low linear-energy-transfer radiation and cancer to assess whether they support the linear no-threshold model as used in radiation protection. The commentary provides a critical review of low-dose or low dose-rate studies, most published within the last 10 y, that are applicable to current occupational, environmental, and medical radiation exposures. The strengths and weaknesses of the epidemiologic methods, dosimetry assessments, and statistical modeling of 29 epidemiologic studies of total solid cancer, leukemia, breast cancer, and thyroid cancer, as well as heritable effects and a few nonmalignant conditions, were evaluated. An appraisal of the degree to which the low-dose or low dose-rate studies supported a linear no-threshold model for radiation protection or on the contrary, demonstrated sufficient evidence that the linear no-threshold model is inappropriate for the purposes of radiation protection was also included. The review found that many, though not all, studies of solid cancer supported the continued use of the linear no-threshold model in radiation protection. Evaluations of the principal studies of leukemia and low-dose or low dose-rate radiation exposure also lent support for the linear no-threshold model as used in protection. Ischemic heart disease, a major type of cardiovascular disease, was examined briefly, but the results of recent studies were considered too weak or inconsistent to allow firm conclusions regarding support of the linear no-threshold model. It is acknowledged that the possible risks from very low doses of low linear-energy-transfer radiation are small and uncertain and that it may never be possible to prove or disprove the validity of the linear no-threshold assumption by epidemiologic means. Nonetheless, the preponderance of recent epidemiologic data on solid cancer is supportive of the continued use of the linear no-threshold model for the purposes of radiation protection. This conclusion is in accord with judgments by other national and international scientific committees, based on somewhat older data. Currently, no alternative dose-response relationship appears more pragmatic or prudent for radiation protection purposes than the linear no-threshold model.

NCRP Vision for the Future and Program Area Committee Activities in 2018

The National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements' (NCRP) congressional charter aligns with our vision for the future: to improve radiation protection for the public and workers. This vision is embodied within NCRP's ongoing initiatives: preparedness for nuclear terrorism, increasing the number of radiation professionals critically needed for the nation, providing new guidance for comprehensive radiation protection in the United States, addressing the protection issues surrounding the ever-increasing use of ionizing radiation in medicine (the focus of this year's annual meeting), assessing radiation doses to aircrew related to higher altitude and longer flights, providing guidance on emerging radiation issues such as the radioactive waste from hydraulic fracturing, focusing on difficult issues such as high-level waste management, and providing better estimates of radiation risks at low doses within the framework of the Million Person Study of Low-Dose Radiation Health Effects. Cutting-edge initiatives included a reevaluation of the science behind recommendations for lens of the eye dose, recommendations for emergency responders on dosimetry after a major radiological incident, guidance to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration with regard to possible central nervous system effects from galactic cosmic rays (the high-energy, high-mass ions bounding through space), reevaluating the population exposure to medical radiation, and addressing whether the linear no-threshold model is still the best available for purposes of radiation protection (not for risk assessment). To address these initiatives and goals, NCRP has seven program area committees on biology and epidemiology, operational concerns, emergency response and preparedness, medicine, environmental issues and waste management, dosimetry, and communications. The NCRP vision for the future will continue and increase under the leadership of President-Elect Dr. Kathryn D. Held (Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard Medical School, and current NCRP executive director and chief science officer). The NCRP quest to improve radiation protection for the public is hindered only by limited resources, both human capital and financial.

Sex-specific lung cancer risk among radiation workers in the million-person study and patients TB-Fluoroscopy

BACKGROUND

The study of Japanese atomic bomb survivors, exposed briefly to radiation, finds the risk of radiation-induced lung cancer to be nearly three times greater for women than for men. Because protection standards for astronauts are based on individual lifetime risk projections, this sex-specific difference limits the time women can spend in space. Populations exposed to chronic or fractionated radiation were evaluated to learn whether similar differences exist when exposures occur gradually over years.

METHODS AND MATERIALS

Five occupational cohorts within the Million Person Study of Low-Dose Health Effects (MPS) and a Canadian Fluoroscopy Cohort Study (CFCS) of tuberculosis patients who underwent frequent chest fluoroscopic examinations are evaluated. Included are male and female workers at the Mound nuclear facility, nuclear power plants (NPP), and industrial radiographers (IR). Workers at the Mallinckrodt Chemical Works and military participants at aboveground nuclear weapons tests provide information on the risk among males. Cox proportional hazards and Poisson regression models were used to estimate sex-specific radiation risks for lung cancer and to compare any differences.

RESULTS

Overall, 15,065 lung cancers occurred among the 443,684 subjects studied: 50,111 women and 395,573 men. The mean cumulative dose to the lung was 166.3 mGy (range 6 to 1,055 mGy) with the highest among the TB-fluoroscopy patients (mean 1,055 mGy). Mean lung dose for women in the worker cohorts was generally 4 times lower than for men. Of the 12 estimates of radiation-related risk, only one, for male IRs, showed a significant elevation (ERR 0.09; 95% CI 0.02-0.16, at 100 mGy). In contrast, the dose response for male NPP workers was negative (ERR -0.05; 95% CI -0.10, 0.01, at 100 mGy). Combined, these two cohorts provided little evidence for a radiation effect among males (ERR 0.01; 95% CI -0.04, 0.06, at 100 mGy). There was no significant dose-response among females within any cohort. There was no difference in the sex-specific estimates of lung cancer risk.

CONCLUSIONS

There was little evidence that chronic or fractionated exposures increased the risk of lung cancer. There were no differences in the risks of lung cancer between men and women. However, the sex-specific analyses are limited because of small numbers of women and relatively low doses. A more definitive study is ongoing of medical radiation workers which include 85,000 women and 85,000 men (overall mean dose 82 mGy, max 1,140 mGy). Additional understanding will come from the ongoing follow-up of the CFCS.

Asbestos Exposure and Mesothelioma Mortality among Atomic Veterans

BACKGROUND

During the Cold War the United States (U.S.) conducted 230 above-ground atmospheric nuclear weapons tests between 1945 and 1962 at the Nevada Test Site and the Pacific Proving Grounds. These tests involved over 250,000 military personnel. Asbestos was used on the naval vessels for insulation in the boiler room, engine room, and other areas. This is the first quantitative assessment of asbestos-related mesothelioma, including cancers of the pleura and peritoneum, among military personnel who participated in above-ground nuclear weapons testing.

METHODS

Approximately 114,000 atomic veterans were selected for an epidemiological study because they were in one of eight series of weapons tests that were associated with somewhat higher personnel exposures than the other tests and because they have been previously studied. We were able to categorize specific jobs into potential for asbestos exposure based on a detailed database of the military activities of the atomic veterans, developed using historical records provided by the Defense Threat Reduction Agency. Standardized mortality ratios (SMR) were calculated by service, rank(officer/enlisted) and ratings (occupation code and work location aboard ship) after 65 years of follow-up… Results: Mesothelioma deaths were significantly increased overall (SMR 1.56; 95% CI 1.32-1.82; n= 153). This increase was seen only among those serving in the Pacific Proving Ground (SMR 1.97; 95% CI 1.65-2.34; n= 134), enlisted men (SMR 1.81; 95% CI 1.53-2.13; n= 145) and the 70,309 navy personnel (SMR 2.15; 95% CI 1.80-2.56; n= 130). No increased mortality rates were seen among the other services: army (SMR 0.45), air force (SMR 0.85) or marines (SMR 0.75). Job categories with the highest potential for asbestos exposure (machinist's mates, boiler technicians, water tender, pipe fitters, and fireman) had an of SMR 6.47. Job categories with lower potential (SMR =1.35) or no potential (SMR =1.28) for asbestos exposure had non-significantly elevated mesothelioma mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Although jobs with high potential for exposure to asbestos products were held by only 20% of the enlisted naval population, sailors with these jobs (machinist's mate, pipe fitter, boiler technician, water tender and fireman) experienced 55% of mesothelioma deaths. The significantly higher mortality rate overall was explained by asbestos exposure among enlisted naval personnel in this low-dose radiation exposed cohort.

Implications of recent epidemiologic studies for the linear nonthreshold model and radiation protection

The recently published NCRP Commentary No. 27 evaluated the new information from epidemiologic studies as to their degree of support for applying the linear nonthreshold (LNT) model of carcinogenic effects for radiation protection purposes (NCRP 2018 Implications of Recent Epidemiologic Studies for the Linear Nonthreshold Model and Radiation Protection, Commentary No. 27 (Bethesda, MD: National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements)). The aim was to determine whether recent epidemiologic studies of low-LET radiation, particularly those at low doses and/or low dose rates (LD/LDR), broadly support the LNT model of carcinogenic risk or, on the contrary, demonstrate sufficient evidence that the LNT model is inappropriate for the purposes of radiation protection. An updated review was needed because a considerable number of reports of radiation epidemiologic studies based on new or updated data have been published since other major reviews were conducted by national and international scientific committees. The Commentary provides a critical review of the LD/LDR studies that are most directly applicable to current occupational, environmental and medical radiation exposure circumstances. This Memorandum summarises several of the more important LD/LDR studies that incorporate radiation dose responses for solid cancer and leukemia that were reviewed in Commentary No. 27. In addition, an overview is provided of radiation studies of breast and thyroid cancers, and cancer after childhood exposures. Non-cancers are briefly touched upon such as ischemic heart disease, cataracts, and heritable genetic effects. To assess the applicability and utility of the LNT model for radiation protection, the Commentary evaluated 29 epidemiologic studies or groups of studies, primarily of total solid cancer, in terms of strengths and weaknesses in their epidemiologic methods, dosimetry approaches, and statistical modelling, and the degree to which they supported a LNT model for continued use in radiation protection. Recommendations for how to make epidemiologic radiation studies more informative are outlined. The NCRP Committee recognises that the risks from LD/LDR exposures are small and uncertain. The Committee judged that the available epidemiologic data were broadly supportive of the LNT model and that at this time no alternative dose-response relationship appears more pragmatic or prudent for radiation protection purposes.

The Past Informs the Future: An Overview of the Million Worker Study and the Mallinckrodt Chemical Works Cohort

The purpose of this paper is to present an overview of ongoing work on the Million Worker Study (MWS), highlighting some of the key methods and progress so far as exemplified by the study of workers at the Mallinckrodt Chemical Works (MCW). The MWS began nearly 25 y ago and continues in a stepwise fashion, evaluating one study cohort at a time. It includes workers from U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Manhattan Project facilities, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) regulated nuclear power plants, industrial radiographers, U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) nuclear weapons test participants, and physicians and technologists working with medical radiation. The purpose is to fill the major gap in radiation protection and science: What is the risk when exposure is received gradually over time rather than briefly as for the atomic bomb survivors? Studies published or planned in 2018 include leukemia (and dosimetry) among atomic veterans, leukemia among nuclear power plant workers, mortality among workers at the MCW, and a comprehensive National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements (NCRP) Report on dosimetry for the MWS. MCW has a singular place in history: the 40 tons (T) of uranium oxide produced at MCW were used by Enrico Fermi on 2 December 1942 to produce the first manmade sustained and controlled nuclear reaction, and the atomic age was born. Seventy-six years later, the authors followed the over 2,500 MCW workers for mortality and reconstructed dose from six sources of exposure: external gamma rays from the radioactive elements in pitchblende; medical x rays from occupationally required chest examinations; intakes of pitchblende (uranium, radium, and silica) measured by urine samples; radon breath analyses and dust surveys overseen by Robley Evans and Merril Eisenbud; occupational exposures received before and after employment at MCW; and cumulative radon concentrations and lung dose from the decay of radium in the work environment. The unique exposure reconstructions allow for multiple evaluations, including estimates of silica dust. The study results are relevant today. For example, NASA is interested that radium, deposited in the brain, releases high-LET alpha particles - the only human analogue, though limited, for high energy, high-Z particles (galactic cosmic rays) traveling through space that might affect astronauts on Mars missions. Don't discount the past; it's the prologue to the future!

NCRP Vision for the Future and Program Area Committee Activities in 2017

The National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements' (NCRP) vision for the future is to improve radiation protection for the general public and workers. This vision is embodied within NCRP's ongoing initiatives: preparedness for nuclear terrorism, increasing the number of radiation professionals critically needed for the nation, providing new guidance for radiation protection in the United States, addressing the protection issues surrounding the ever-increasing use of ionizing radiation in medicine, assessing the radiation doses to aircrew due to higher altitude and longer flights, providing guidance on emerging radiation issues such as the radioactive waste from hydraulic fracturing, focusing on difficult issues such as high-level waste management, and providing better estimates of radiation risks at low doses within the framework of the Million Person Study of Low Dose Radiation Health Effects. Cutting-edge initiatives include a re-evaluation of the science behind recommendations for lens of the eye dose, recommendations for emergency responders on dosimetry after a major radiological incident, guidance to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration with regard to possible central nervous system effects from galactic cosmic rays (the high-energy, high-mass particles bounding through space), re-evaluating the population exposure to medical radiation, and addressing whether the linear non-threshold model is still the best available for purposes of radiation protection (not for risk assessment). To address these initiatives and goals, NCRP has seven Program Area Committees on biology and epidemiology, operational concerns, emergency response and preparedness, medicine, environmental issues and waste management, dosimetry, and communications. The NCRP vision for the future received a quantum boost in 2016 when Dr. Kathryn D. Held (Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard Medical School) accepted the position of NCRP Executive Director and Chief Science Officer. The NCRP quest to improve radiation protection for the public is hindered only by limited resources, both human capital and financial.

Space: The Final Frontier-Research Relevant to Mars

A critically important gap in knowledge surrounds the health consequences of exposure to radiation received gradually over time. Much is known about the health effects of brief high-dose exposures, such as from the atomic bombings in Japan, but the concerns today focus on the frequent low-dose exposures received by members of the public, workers, and, as addressed in this paper, astronauts. Additional guidance is needed by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) for planning long-term missions where the rate of radiation exposure is gradual over years and the cumulative amounts high. The direct study of low doses and low-dose rates is of immeasurable value in understanding the possible range of health effects from gradual exposures and in providing guidance for radiation protection, not only of workers and the public but also astronauts. The ongoing Million Person Study (MPS) is 10 times larger than the study of the Japanese atomic bomb survivors of 86,000 survivors with estimated doses. The number of workers with >100 mSv career dose is substantially greater. The large study size, broad range of doses, and long follow-up indicate substantial statistical ability to quantify the risk of exposures that are received gradually over time. The study consists of 360,000 U.S. Department of Energy workers from the Manhattan Project; 150,000 nuclear utility workers from the inception of the nuclear age; 115,000 atomic veterans who participated in above-ground atmospheric tests at the Nevada Test Site and the Bikini and Enewetak Atolls and Johnston Island in the Pacific Proving Grounds (PPG); 250,000 radiologists and medical workers; and 130,000 industrial radiographers. NASA uses an individual risk-based system for radiation protection in contrast to the system of dose limits for occupational exposures used by terrestrial-based organizations. The permissible career exposure limit set by NASA for each astronaut is a 3% risk of exposure-induced death (REID) from cancer at a 95% confidence level to account for uncertainties in risk projections. The large size of the MPS will reduce the uncertainty in the risk estimates, narrowing the 95% confidence interval, and thus allow more time in space for astronauts. Further differences between men and women in their response to radiation can be more fully examined, and non-cancer outcomes, such as neurological disorders and cardiovascular disease, can be evaluated in a way not hitherto possible.

Mortality among military participants at the 1957 PLUMBBOB nuclear weapons test series and from leukemia among participants at the SMOKY test

Health effects following low doses of ionizing radiation are uncertain. Military veterans at the Nevada test site (NTS) during the SMOKY atmospheric nuclear weapons test in 1957 were reported to be at increased risk for leukemia in 1979, but this increase was not evaluated with respect to radiation dose. The SMOKY test was one of 30 tests in 1957 within the PLUMBBOB test series. These early studies led to public laws where atomic veterans could qualify for compensation for presumptive radiogenic diseases. A retrospective cohort study was conducted of 12219 veterans at the PLUMBBOB test series, including 3020 at the SMOKY nuclear test. Mortality follow-up was through 2010 and observed causes of death were compared with expected causes based on general population rates. Radiation dose to red bone marrow was based on individual dose reconstructions, and Cox proportional hazards models were used to evaluate dose response for all leukemias other than chronic lymphocytic leukemia (non-CLL leukemia). Vital status was determined for 95.3% of the 12 219 veterans. The dose to red bone marrow was low (mean 3.2 mGy, maximum 500 mGy). Military participants at the PLUMBBOB nuclear test series remained relatively healthy after 53 years and died at a lower rate than the general population. In contrast, and in comparison with national rates, the SMOKY participants showed significant increases in all causes of death, respiratory cancer, leukemia, nephritis and nephrosis, and accidents, possibly related in part to lifestyle factors common to enlisted men who made up 81% of the SMOKY cohort. Compared with national rates, a statistically significant excess of non-CLL leukemia was observed among SMOKY participants (Standardized Mortality Ratio  =  1.89, 95% 1.24-2.75, n  =  27) but not among PLUMBBOB participants after excluding SMOKY (SMR  =  0.87, 95% 0.64-1.51, n  =  47). Leukemia risk, initially reported to be significantly increased among SMOKY participants, remained elevated, but this risk diminished over time. Despite an intense dose reconstruction, the risk for leukemia was not found to increase with increasing levels of radiation dose to the red bone marrow. Based on a linear model, the estimated excess relative risk per mGy is  -0.05 (95% CI -0.14, 0.04). An explanation for the observed excess of leukemia remains unresolved but conceivably could be related to chance due to small numbers, subtle biases in the study design and/or high tobacco use among enlisted men. Larger studies should elucidate further the possible relationship between fallout radiation, leukemia and cancer among atomic veterans.

Shared dosimetry error in epidemiological dose-response analyses

Radiation dose reconstruction systems for large-scale epidemiological studies are sophisticated both in providing estimates of dose and in representing dosimetry uncertainty. For example, a computer program was used by the Hanford Thyroid Disease Study to provide 100 realizations of possible dose to study participants. The variation in realizations reflected the range of possible dose for each cohort member consistent with the data on dose determinates in the cohort. Another example is the Mayak Worker Dosimetry System 2013 which estimates both external and internal exposures and provides multiple realizations of "possible" dose history to workers given dose determinants. This paper takes up the problem of dealing with complex dosimetry systems that provide multiple realizations of dose in an epidemiologic analysis. In this paper we derive expected scores and the information matrix for a model used widely in radiation epidemiology, namely the linear excess relative risk (ERR) model that allows for a linear dose response (risk in relation to radiation) and distinguishes between modifiers of background rates and of the excess risk due to exposure. We show that treating the mean dose for each individual (calculated by averaging over the realizations) as if it was true dose (ignoring both shared and unshared dosimetry errors) gives asymptotically unbiased estimates (i.e. the score has expectation zero) and valid tests of the null hypothesis that the ERR slope β is zero. Although the score is unbiased the information matrix (and hence the standard errors of the estimate of β) is biased for β≠0 when ignoring errors in dose estimates, and we show how to adjust the information matrix to remove this bias, using the multiple realizations of dose. The use of these methods in the context of several studies including, the Mayak Worker Cohort, and the U.S. Atomic Veterans Study, is discussed.

Dose reconstruction for the million worker study: status and guidelines

The primary aim of the epidemiologic study of one million U.S. radiation workers and veterans [the Million Worker Study (MWS)] is to provide scientifically valid information on the level of radiation risk when exposures are received gradually over time and not within seconds, as was the case for Japanese atomic bomb survivors. The primary outcome of the epidemiologic study is cancer mortality, but other causes of death such as cardiovascular disease and cerebrovascular disease will be evaluated. The success of the study is tied to the validity of the dose reconstruction approaches to provide realistic estimates of organ-specific radiation absorbed doses that are as accurate and precise as possible and to properly evaluate their accompanying uncertainties. The dosimetry aspects for the MWS are challenging in that they address diverse exposure scenarios for diverse occupational groups being studied over a period of up to 70 y. The dosimetric issues differ among the varied exposed populations that are considered: atomic veterans, U.S. Department of Energy workers exposed to both penetrating radiation and intakes of radionuclides, nuclear power plant workers, medical radiation workers, and industrial radiographers. While a major source of radiation exposure to the study population comes from external gamma- or x-ray sources, for some of the study groups, there is a meaningful component of radionuclide intakes that requires internal radiation dosimetry assessments. Scientific Committee 6-9 has been established by the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements (NCRP) to produce a report on the comprehensive organ dose assessment (including uncertainty analysis) for the MWS. The NCRP dosimetry report will cover the specifics of practical dose reconstruction for the ongoing epidemiologic studies with uncertainty analysis discussions and will be a specific application of the guidance provided in NCRP Report Nos. 158, 163, 164, and 171. The main role of the Committee is to provide guidelines to the various groups of dosimetrists involved in the MWS to ensure that certain dosimetry criteria are considered: calculation of annual absorbed doses in the organs of interest, separation of low and high linear-energy transfer components, evaluation of uncertainties, and quality assurance and quality control. It is recognized that the MWS and its approaches to dosimetry are a work in progress and that there will be flexibility and changes in direction as new information is obtained with regard to both dosimetry and the epidemiologic features of the study components. This paper focuses on the description of the various components of the MWS, the available dosimetry results, and the challenges that have been encountered. It is expected that the Committee will complete its report in 2016.