Mortality from cardiovascular diseases in the Semipalatinsk historical cohort, 1960-1999, and its relationship to radiation exposure

A Historical Survey of Key Epidemiological Studies of Ionizing Radiation Exposure

In this article we review the history of key epidemiological studies of populations exposed to ionizing radiation. We highlight historical and recent findings regarding radiation-associated risks for incidence and mortality of cancer and non-cancer outcomes with emphasis on study design and methods of exposure assessment and dose estimation along with brief consideration of sources of bias for a few of the more important studies. We examine the findings from the epidemiological studies of the Japanese atomic bomb survivors, persons exposed to radiation for diagnostic or therapeutic purposes, those exposed to environmental sources including Chornobyl and other reactor accidents, and occupationally exposed cohorts. We also summarize results of pooled studies. These summaries are necessarily brief, but we provide references to more detailed information. We discuss possible future directions of study, to include assessment of susceptible populations, and possible new populations, data sources, study designs and methods of analysis.

Effects of confounding and effect-modifying lifestyle, environmental and medical factors on risk of radiation-associated cardiovascular disease

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death worldwide. It has been known for some considerable time that radiation is associated with excess risk of CVD. A recent systematic review of radiation and CVD highlighted substantial inter-study heterogeneity in effect, possibly a result of confounding or modifications of radiation effect by non-radiation factors, in particular by the major lifestyle/environmental/medical risk factors and latent period.

METHODS

We assessed effects of confounding by lifestyle/environmental/medical risk factors on radiation-associated CVD and investigated evidence for modifying effects of these variables on CVD radiation dose-response, using data assembled for a recent systematic review.

RESULTS

There are 43 epidemiologic studies which are informative on effects of adjustment for confounding or risk modifying factors on radiation-associated CVD. Of these 22 were studies of groups exposed to substantial doses of medical radiation for therapy or diagnosis. The remaining 21 studies were of groups exposed at much lower levels of dose and/or dose rate. Only four studies suggest substantial effects of adjustment for lifestyle/environmental/medical risk factors on radiation risk of CVD; however, there were also substantial uncertainties in the estimates in all of these studies. There are fewer suggestions of effects that modify the radiation dose response; only two studies, both at lower levels of dose, report the most serious level of modifying effect.

CONCLUSIONS

There are still large uncertainties about confounding factors or lifestyle/environmental/medical variables that may influence radiation-associated CVD, although indications are that there are not many studies in which there are substantial confounding effects of these risk factors.

Comorbid Conditions in Persons Exposed to Ionizing Radiation and Veterans of the Soviet-Afghan War: A Cohort Study in Kazakhstan

OBJECTIVES

This study investigated the prevalence and characteristics of comorbid conditions in patients exposed to ionizing radiation and those who were involved in the Soviet-Afghan war.

METHODS

This study analyzed the frequency and spectrum of morbidity and comorbidity in patients over a long-term period (30-35 years) following exposure to ionizing radiation at the Semipalatinsk nuclear test site or the Chornobyl nuclear power plant, and among participants of the Soviet-Afghan war. A cohort study, both prospective and retrospective, was conducted on 675 patients who underwent comprehensive examinations.

RESULTS

Numerical data were analyzed using the Statistica 6 program. The results are presented as the mean±standard deviation, median, and interquartile range (25-75th percentiles). The statistical significance of between-group differences was assessed using the Student t-test and Pearson chi-square test. A p-value of less than 0.05 was considered statistically significant. We found a high prevalence of cardiovascular diseases, including hypertension (55.0%) and cardiac ischemia (32.9%); these rates exceeded the average for this age group in the general population.

CONCLUSIONS

The cumulative impact of causal occupational, environmental, and ultra-high stress factors in the combat zone in participants of the Soviet-Afghan war, along with common conventional factors, contributed to the formation of a specific comorbidity structure. This necessitates a rational approach to identifying early predictors of cardiovascular events and central nervous system disorders, as well as pathognomonic clinical symptoms in this patient cohort. It also underscores the importance of selecting suitable methods and strategies for implementing treatment and prevention measures.

Features of the Course of Various types of Stroke in Patients Exposed to Low-dose Radiation

BACKGROUND: There is limited number of studies about peculiarities of cardiovascular diseases in population of different region by the zone of radiation exposure risk. AIM: The aim of the study was to study the effect of radiation factor on the pathogenesis of stroke. MATERIALS AND METHODS: To study the in influence of radiation factor on pathogenesis of stroke, 358 stroke patients were distributed based on the place of their residence into corresponding zones of radiation risk: 53 patients lived in zone of extremely high radiation level (488–100 cSV, zone I): 75 - from the zone of maximal radiation exposure (35–100 cSV, zone II), 158 - from zone with high radiation exposure (35–7 cSV, zone III), and 72 patients were the residents of minimal radiation risk (1–7 cSV, zone IV). RESULTS: The study of coagulation hemostasis had revealed the significant increase of fibrinogen level in patients from zone I: 4.7 ± 0.14% versus 3.2 ± 0.11%, in patients living in minimal radiation risk zone (p < 0.01). The patients from extremely high radiation risk had significant decrease in fibrinolysis time in comparison to patients from zone IV (p < 0.05). The primary APS was diagnosed in 24 (6.7%) patients in total group of stroke patients (11 males and 13 females), from which 21 patients with ischemic stroke and 3 with hemorrhagic stroke. Leiden Va defect was found significantly more often in patients lived in high radiation risk zone (9.4%), in 13.5% stroke patients from zone II, in 13.2% patients lived in zone I, in comparison to 6.9% patients lived in zone IV. The patients from zone I had significantly higher level of plasma homocysteine in comparison to patients from other zones, (p < 0.01). Furthermore, the significantly higher levels of plasma homocysteine were found in the group with maximal and high radiation exposure, in comparison to the group of patients from minimal risk zone (p < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: We can see the presence of indirect evidences of modifying influence of radiation factor on pathogenic mechanisms of stroke.

Ionizing radiation, cerebrovascular disease, and consequent dementia: A review and proposed framework relevant to space radiation exposure

Space exploration requires the characterization and management or mitigation of a variety of human health risks. Exposure to space radiation is one of the main health concerns because it has the potential to increase the risk of cancer, cardiovascular disease, and both acute and late neurodegeneration. Space radiation-induced decrements to the vascular system may impact the risk for cerebrovascular disease and consequent dementia. These risks may be independent or synergistic with direct damage to central nervous system tissues. The purpose of this work is to review epidemiological and experimental data regarding the impact of low-to-moderate dose ionizing radiation on the central nervous system and the cerebrovascular system. A proposed framework outlines how space radiation-induced effects on the vasculature may increase risk for both cerebrovascular dysfunction and neural and cognitive adverse outcomes. The results of this work suggest that there are multiple processes by which ionizing radiation exposure may impact cerebrovascular function including increases in oxidative stress, neuroinflammation, endothelial cell dysfunction, arterial stiffening, atherosclerosis, and cerebral amyloid angiopathy. Cerebrovascular adverse outcomes may also promote neural and cognitive adverse outcomes. However, there are many gaps in both the human and preclinical evidence base regarding the long-term impact of ionizing radiation exposure on brain health due to heterogeneity in both exposures and outcomes. The unique composition of the space radiation environment makes the translation of the evidence base from terrestrial exposures to space exposures difficult. Additional investigation and understanding of the impact of low-to-moderate doses of ionizing radiation including high (H) atomic number (Z) and energy (E) (HZE) ions on the cerebrovascular system is needed. Furthermore, investigation of how decrements in vascular systems may contribute to development of neurodegenerative diseases in independent or synergistic pathways is important for protecting the long-term health of astronauts.

Low- and moderate-dose non-cancer effects of ionizing radiation in directly exposed individuals, especially circulatory and ocular diseases: a review of the epidemiology

PURPOSE

There are well-known correlations between high and moderate doses (>0.5 Gy) of ionizing radiation exposure and circulatory system damage, also between radiation and posterior subcapsular cataract. At lower dose correlations with circulatory disease are emerging in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors and in some occupationally exposed groups, and are still to some extent controversial. Heterogeneity in excess relative risks per unit dose in epidemiological studies at low (<0.1 Gy) and at low-moderate (>0.1 Gy, <0.5 Gy) doses may result from confounding and other types of bias, and effect modification by established risk factors. There is also accumulating evidence of excess cataract risks at lower dose and low dose rate in various cohorts. Other ocular endpoints, specifically glaucoma and macular degeneration have been little studied. In this paper, we review recent epidemiological findings, and also discuss some of the underlying radiobiology of these conditions. We briefly review some other types of mainly neurological nonmalignant disease in relation to radiation exposure.

CONCLUSIONS

We document statistically significant excess risk of the major types of circulatory disease, specifically ischemic heart disease and stroke, in moderate- or low-dose exposed groups, with some not altogether consistent evidence suggesting dose-response non-linearity, particularly for stroke. However, the patterns of risk reported are not straightforward. We also document evidence of excess risks at lower doses/dose-rates of posterior subcapsular and cortical cataract in the Chernobyl liquidators, US Radiologic Technologists and Russian Mayak nuclear workers, with fundamentally linear dose-response. Nuclear cataracts are less radiogenic. For other ocular endpoints, specifically glaucoma and macular degeneration there is very little evidence of effects at low doses; radiation-associated glaucoma has been documented only for doses >5 Gy, and so has the characteristics of a tissue reaction. There is some evidence of neurological detriment following low-moderate dose (∼0.1-0.2 Gy) radiation exposure in utero or in early childhood.

Ionizing radiation-induced circulatory and metabolic diseases

Risks to health are the prime consideration in all human situations of ionizing radiation exposure and therefore of relevance to radiation protection in all occupational, medical, and public exposure situations. Over the past few decades, advances in therapeutic strategies have led to significant improvements in cancer survival rates. However, a wide range of long-term complications have been reported in cancer survivors, in particular circulatory diseases and their major risk factors, metabolic diseases. However, at lower levels of exposure, the evidence is less clear. Under real-life exposure scenarios, including radiotherapy, radiation effects in the whole organism will be determined mainly by the response of normal tissues receiving relatively low doses, and will be mediated and moderated by systemic effects. Therefore, there is an urgent need for further research on the impact of low-dose radiation. In this article, we review radiation-associated risks of circulatory and metabolic diseases in clinical, occupational or environmental exposure situations, addressing epidemiological, biological, risk modelling, and systems biology aspects, highlight the gaps in knowledge and discuss future directions to address these gaps.

Dose limits for occupational exposure to ionising radiation and genotoxic carcinogens: a German perspective

This paper summarises the view of the German Commission on Radiological Protection ("Strahlenschutzkommission", SSK) on the rationale behind the currently valid dose limits and dose constraints for workers recommended by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP). The paper includes a discussion of the reasoning behind current dose limits followed by a discussion of the detriment used by ICRP as a measure for stochastic health effects. Studies on radiation-induced cancer are reviewed because this endpoint represents the most important contribution to detriment. Recent findings on radiation-induced circulatory disease that are currently not included in detriment calculation are also reviewed. It appeared that for detriment calculations the contribution of circulatory diseases plays only a secondary role, although the uncertainties involved in their risk estimates are considerable. These discussions are complemented by a review of the procedures currently in use in Germany, or in discussion elsewhere, to define limits for genotoxic carcinogens. To put these concepts in perspective, actual occupational radiation exposures are exemplified with data from Germany, for the year 2012, and regulations in Germany are compared to the recommendations issued by ICRP. Conclusions include, among others, considerations on radiation protection concepts currently in use and recommendations of the SSK on the limitation of annual effective dose and effective dose cumulated over a whole working life.

Trace element biomonitoring in hair and blood of occupationally unexposed population residing in polluted areas of East Kazakhstan and Pavlodar regions

INTRODUCTION

Eastern and North-Eastern regions of Kazakhstan are considered to be environmentally disadvantaged due to industrial pollution and activity of the former Semipalatinsk Nuclear Test Site. Ferrous metallurgy is represented by the world's largest ferroalloy plant located in Aksu. In addition to a ferroalloy plant, Aksu is the home for the largest thermal power plant in Kazakhstan.

OBJECTIVE

Biomonitoring of 31 hair and blood trace elements (Ag, Ba, Be, Bi, Cs, Co, Ce, Cr, Cu, Eu, Gd, Hf, In, La, Li, Mn, Mo, Nb, Nd, Pb, Sc, Sn, Tl, Th, U, V, W, Y, Yb, Zn, and Zr) in non-occupationally exposed population residing in polluted areas of East Kazakhstan and Pavlodar regions.

METHODS

Five case groups, residing in the vicinity to the former Semipalatinsk Nuclear Test Site (Akzhar, Borodulikha, and Karaul) or in proximity to industrial plants (Aksu and Ust-Kamenogorsk) have been assessed vs. controls from a rural settlement in Kurchum. In total, 204 hair and blood samples were analyzed by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry.

RESULTS

The observed blood concentrations of trace elements were in agreement with earlier studies on residents of industrially polluted areas. Elevated levels of blood Ba, Mn, Pb, V, and Zn were detected in residents of Aksu and Ust-Kamenogorsk. The elemental composition of head hair was characterized by greater stability between the study sites.

CONCLUSION

Residency near the former Semipalatinsk Test Site could be considered as safe, while the environmental status of industrial settlements appears to be rather adverse.

The State Scientific Automated Medical Registry, Kazakhstan: an important resource for low-dose radiation health research

Direct quantitative assessment of health risks following exposure to ionizing radiation is based on findings from epidemiological studies. Populations affected by nuclear bomb testing are among those that allow such assessment. The population living around the former Soviet Union's Semipalatinsk nuclear test site is one of the largest human cohorts exposed to radiation from nuclear weapons tests. Following research that started in the 1960s, a registry that contains information on more than 300,000 individuals residing in the areas neighboring to the test site was established. Four nuclear weapons tests, conducted from 1949 to 1956, resulted in non-negligible radiation exposures to the public, corresponding up to approximately 300 mGy external dose. The registry contains relevant information about those who lived at the time of the testing as well as about their offspring, including biological material. An international group of scientists worked together within the research project SEMI-NUC funded by the European Union, and concluded that the registry provides a novel, mostly unexplored, and valuable resource for the assessment of the population risks associated with environmental radiation exposure. Suggestions for future studies and pathways on how to use the best dose assessment strategies have also been described in the project. Moreover, the registry could be used for research on other relevant public health topics.

Recent Epidemiologic Studies and the Linear No-Threshold Model For Radiation Protection-Considerations Regarding NCRP Commentary 27

National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements Commentary 27 examines recent epidemiologic data primarily from low-dose or low dose-rate studies of low linear-energy-transfer radiation and cancer to assess whether they support the linear no-threshold model as used in radiation protection. The commentary provides a critical review of low-dose or low dose-rate studies, most published within the last 10 y, that are applicable to current occupational, environmental, and medical radiation exposures. The strengths and weaknesses of the epidemiologic methods, dosimetry assessments, and statistical modeling of 29 epidemiologic studies of total solid cancer, leukemia, breast cancer, and thyroid cancer, as well as heritable effects and a few nonmalignant conditions, were evaluated. An appraisal of the degree to which the low-dose or low dose-rate studies supported a linear no-threshold model for radiation protection or on the contrary, demonstrated sufficient evidence that the linear no-threshold model is inappropriate for the purposes of radiation protection was also included. The review found that many, though not all, studies of solid cancer supported the continued use of the linear no-threshold model in radiation protection. Evaluations of the principal studies of leukemia and low-dose or low dose-rate radiation exposure also lent support for the linear no-threshold model as used in protection. Ischemic heart disease, a major type of cardiovascular disease, was examined briefly, but the results of recent studies were considered too weak or inconsistent to allow firm conclusions regarding support of the linear no-threshold model. It is acknowledged that the possible risks from very low doses of low linear-energy-transfer radiation are small and uncertain and that it may never be possible to prove or disprove the validity of the linear no-threshold assumption by epidemiologic means. Nonetheless, the preponderance of recent epidemiologic data on solid cancer is supportive of the continued use of the linear no-threshold model for the purposes of radiation protection. This conclusion is in accord with judgments by other national and international scientific committees, based on somewhat older data. Currently, no alternative dose-response relationship appears more pragmatic or prudent for radiation protection purposes than the linear no-threshold model.

Associations between depression, anxiety and medication adherence among patients with arterial hypertension: Comparison between persons exposed and non-exposed to radiation from the Semipalatinsk Nuclear Test Site

In this study, we investigated the association between depression, anxiety and medication adherence in patients with arterial hypertension living in East Kazakhstan region. The sample size included 795 patients, of whom 403 patients were exposed to radiation at the Semipalatinsk Nuclear Test Site from 1949 to 1989, while 395 patients were unexposed to radiation due to their very remote residence from the Site at the same period. Both exposed and unexposed patients showed no significant differences concerning body mass index, smoking habit, the presence of hypercholesterolemia, and hypertension grade. Patients with arterial hypertension previously exposed to radiation had significantly higher rates of low medication adherence, subclinical and clinical depression, situational anxiety of moderate and severe grade, and personal anxiety of moderate grade. A logistic regression analysis allowed us to identify the presence of significant positive association between medication adherence and anxiety in exposed patients (OR = 4041 (95%CI:1709-9556) p = 0.001) and marginal association (OR = 2998 (95%CI:1008-8915) p = 0.048) between the same parameters in unexposed patients. It might prove to be useful to introduce psychological and medical counseling with an emphasis on strengthening of medication adherence and to inform the local population about radiation effects and dosimetry data.

Increased prevalence of essential hypertension in areas previously exposed to fallout due to nuclear weapons testing at the Semipalatinsk Test Site, Kazakhstan

This study examines the association between environmental radiation exposure and essential hypertension in a series of investigated geographical districts adjacent to the Semipalatinsk nuclear test site in Kazakhstan. The sample consists of 2000 volunteers participants in screening examinations in three administrative districts close to the nuclear test site, which was carried out as part of the Government Programs on Environmental Health Hazard. The cross-sectional study compares prevalence ratios in a population sample with long-term exposure in the low and intermediate dose range. Age-adjusted odds ratios for hypertension were found significantly increased with higher exposure groups. After accounting for main cardiovascular risk factors into the model and stratifying by gender, the prevalence odds ratios for radiation remained significantly increased, with a significant dose-response effect observed for some but not all subgroups. The results support existing evidence of cardiovascular health effects of radiation exposure and of persisting environmental health issues that require attention in both epidemiological surveys and healthcare provision.

Health Impacts of Low-Dose Ionizing Radiation: Current Scientific Debates and Regulatory Issues

Health impacts of low-dose ionizing radiation are significant in important fields such as X-ray imaging, radiation therapy, nuclear power, and others. However, all existing and potential applications are currently challenged by public concerns and regulatory restrictions. We aimed to assess the validity of the linear no-threshold (LNT) model of radiation damage, which is the basis of current regulation, and to assess the justification for this regulation. We have conducted an extensive search in PubMed. Special attention has been given to papers cited in comprehensive reviews of the United States (2006) and French (2005) Academies of Sciences and in the United Nations Scientific Committee on Atomic Radiation 2016 report. Epidemiological data provide essentially no evidence for detrimental health effects below 100 mSv, and several studies suggest beneficial (hormetic) effects. Equally significant, many studies with in vitro and in animal models demonstrate that several mechanisms initiated by low-dose radiation have beneficial effects. Overall, although probably not yet proven to be untrue, LNT has certainly not been proven to be true. At this point, taking into account the high price tag (in both economic and human terms) borne by the LNT-inspired regulation, there is little doubt that the present regulatory burden should be reduced.

Radiation-associated circulatory disease mortality in a pooled analysis of 77,275 patients from the Massachusetts and Canadian tuberculosis fluoroscopy cohorts

High-dose ionising radiation is associated with circulatory disease. Risks associated with lower-dose (<0.5 Gy) exposures remain unclear, with little information on risk modification by age at exposure, years since exposure or dose-rate. Tuberculosis patients in Canada and Massachusetts received multiple diagnostic x-ray fluoroscopic exposures, over a wide range of ages, many at doses <0.5 Gy. We evaluated risks of circulatory-disease mortality associated with <0.5 Gy radiation exposure in a pooled cohort of 63,707 patients in Canada and 13,568 patients in Massachusetts. Under 0.5 Gy there are increasing trends for all circulatory disease (n = 10,209; excess relative risk/Gy = 0.246; 95% CI 0.036, 0.469; p = 0.021) and for ischaemic heart disease (n = 6410; excess relative risk/Gy = 0.267; 95% CI 0.003, 0.552; p = 0.048). All circulatory-disease and ischaemic-heart-disease risk reduces with increasing time since exposure (p < 0.005). Over the entire dose range, there are negative mortality dose trends for all circulatory disease (p = 0.014) and ischaemic heart disease (p = 0.003), possibly due to competing causes of death over this dose interval.These results confirm and extend earlier findings and strengthen the evidence for circulatory-disease mortality radiation risk at doses <0.5 Gy. The limited information on well-known lifestyle/medical risk factors for circulatory disease implies that confounding of the dose trend cannot be entirely excluded.

Radiation and circulatory disease

Exposure to therapeutic doses of ionizing radiation is associated with damage to the heart and coronary arteries. However, only recently have studies with high-quality individual dosimetry data allowed this risk to be quantified while also adjusting for concomitant chemotherapy, and medical and lifestyle risk factors. At lower levels of exposure the evidence is less clear. In this article I review radiation-associated risks of circulatory disease in groups treated with radiotherapy for malignant and non-malignant disease, and in occupationally- or environmentally-exposed groups receiving rather lower levels of radiation dose, also for medical diagnostic purposes. Results of a meta-analysis suggest that excess relative risks per unit dose for various types of heart disease do not exhibit statistically significant (p>0.2) heterogeneity between studies. Although there are no marked discrepancies between risks derived from the high-dose therapeutic and medical diagnostic studies and from the moderate/low dose occupational and environmental studies, at least for ischemic heart disease and stroke there are indications of larger risks per unit dose for lower dose rate and fractionated exposures. Risks for stroke and other types of circulatory disease are significantly more variable (p<0.0001), possibly resulting from confounding and effect-modification by well known (but unobserved) risk factors. Adjustment for any of mean dose, dose fractionation or age at exposure results in the residual heterogeneity for cerebrovascular disease becoming non-significant. The review provides strong evidence in support of a causal association between both low and high dose radiation exposure and most types of circulatory disease.

Low dose radiation and circulatory diseases: a brief narrative review

Exposure to high doses of ionizing radiation is associated with damage to the heart and coronary arteries. However, only recently have studies with high-quality individual dosimetry data allowed this risk to be estimated while adjusting for concomitant chemotherapy. An association between lower dose exposures and late-occurring circulatory disease has only recently been suspected in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors and in various occupationally exposed cohorts and is still controversial. Excess relative risks per unit dose in moderate- and low-dose epidemiological studies are variable, possibly resulting from confounding and effect-modification by well known (but unobserved) risk factors. Here, we summarize the evidence for a causal association between moderate- and low-level radiation exposure (whether at high or low dose rates) and circulatory disease.

Studies of Health Effects from Nuclear Testing near the Semipalatinsk Nuclear Test Site, Kazakhstan

The nuclear bomb testing conducted at the Semipalatinsk nuclear test site in Kazakhstan is of great importance for today's radiation protection research, particularly in the area of low dose exposures. This type of radiation is of particular interest due to the lack of research in this field and how it impacts population health. In order to understand the possible health effects of nuclear bomb testing, it is important to determine what studies have been conducted on the effects of low dose exposure and dosimetry, and evaluate new epidemiologic data and biological material collected from populations living in proximity to the test site. With time, new epidemiological data has been made available, and it is possible that these data may be linked to biological samples. Next to linking existing and newly available data to examine health effects, the existing dosimetry system needs to be expanded and further developed to include residential areas, which have not yet been taken into account. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of previous studies evaluating the health effects of nuclear testing, including some information on dosimetry efforts, and pointing out directions for future epidemiologic studies.

Accounting for shared and unshared dosimetric uncertainties in the dose response for ultrasound-detected thyroid nodules after exposure to radioactive fallout

Dosimetic uncertainties, particularly those that are shared among subgroups of a study population, can bias, distort or reduce the slope or significance of a dose response. Exposure estimates in studies of health risks from environmental radiation exposures are generally highly uncertain and thus, susceptible to these methodological limitations. An analysis was published in 2008 concerning radiation-related thyroid nodule prevalence in a study population of 2,994 villagers under the age of 21 years old between August 1949 and September 1962 and who lived downwind from the Semipalatinsk Nuclear Test Site in Kazakhstan. This dose-response analysis identified a statistically significant association between thyroid nodule prevalence and reconstructed doses of fallout-related internal and external radiation to the thyroid gland; however, the effects of dosimetric uncertainty were not evaluated since the doses were simple point "best estimates". In this work, we revised the 2008 study by a comprehensive treatment of dosimetric uncertainties. Our present analysis improves upon the previous study, specifically by accounting for shared and unshared uncertainties in dose estimation and risk analysis, and differs from the 2008 analysis in the following ways: 1. The study population size was reduced from 2,994 to 2,376 subjects, removing 618 persons with uncertain residence histories; 2. Simulation of multiple population dose sets (vectors) was performed using a two-dimensional Monte Carlo dose estimation method; and 3. A Bayesian model averaging approach was employed for evaluating the dose response, explicitly accounting for large and complex uncertainty in dose estimation. The results were compared against conventional regression techniques. The Bayesian approach utilizes 5,000 independent realizations of population dose vectors, each of which corresponds to a set of conditional individual median internal and external doses for the 2,376 subjects. These 5,000 population dose vectors reflect uncertainties in dosimetric parameters, partly shared and partly independent, among individual members of the study population. Risk estimates for thyroid nodules from internal irradiation were higher than those published in 2008, which results, to the best of our knowledge, from explicitly accounting for dose uncertainty. In contrast to earlier findings, the use of Bayesian methods led to the conclusion that the biological effectiveness for internal and external dose was similar. Estimates of excess relative risk per unit dose (ERR/Gy) for males (177 thyroid nodule cases) were almost 30 times those for females (571 cases) and were similar to those reported for thyroid cancers related to childhood exposures to external and internal sources in other studies. For confirmed cases of papillary thyroid cancers (3 in males, 18 in females), the ERR/Gy was also comparable to risk estimates from other studies, but not significantly different from zero. These findings represent the first reported dose response for a radiation epidemiologic study considering all known sources of shared and unshared errors in dose estimation and using a Bayesian model averaging (BMA) method for analysis of the dose response.

Cerebrovascular diseases incidence and mortality in an extended Mayak Worker Cohort 1948-1982

Incidence and mortality from cerebrovascular disease (CVD) [International Classification of Diseases 9th revision (ICD-9) codes: 430-438] was studied in a cohort of 22,377 workers first employed at the Mayak Production Association (Mayak PA) in 1948-1982 and followed up to the end of 2008. The cohort size was increased by 19% and follow-up extended by 3 years over the previous analysis. Radiation doses were estimated using an updated dosimetry system: Mayak Worker Dosimetry System 2008 (MWDS-2008). For the first time, in an analysis of this cohort, quantitative smoking data were used. Workers of the study cohort were exposed occupationally to prolonged external gamma rays and internal alpha particles. The mean (±standard deviation) total dose from external gamma rays was 0.54 ± 0.76 Gy (95% percentile 2.21 Gy) for males and 0.44 ± 0.65 Gy (95% percentile 1.87 Gy) for females. The mean plutonium body burden in the 31% of workers monitored for internal exposure was 1.32 ± 4.87 kBq (95% percentile 4.71 kBq) for males and 2.21 ± 13.24 kBq (95% percentile 4.56 kBq) for females. The mean total absorbed alpha-particles dose to the liver from incorporated plutonium was 0.23 ± 0.77 Gy (95% percentile 0.89 Gy) in males and 0.44 ± 2.11 Gy (95% percentile 1.25 Gy) in females. After adjusting for nonradiation factors (gender, age, calendar period, employment period, facility, smoking, alcohol consumption), there were significantly increasing trends in CVD incidence associated with total absorbed dose from external gamma rays and total absorbed dose to the liver from internal alpha-particle radiation exposure. Excess relative risks per Gy (ERR/Gy) were 0.46 (95% CI 0.37, 0.57) and 0.28 (95% CI 0.16, 0.42), respectively, based on a linear dose-response model. Adjustments for additional factors (hypertension, body mass index, duration of employment, smoking index and total absorbed dose to the liver from internal exposure during the analysis of external exposure and vice versa) had little effect on the results. The categorical analyses showed that CVD incidence was significantly higher among workers with total absorbed external gamma-ray doses greater than 0.1 Gy compared to those exposed to lower doses and that CVD incidence was also significantly higher among workers with total absorbed internal alpha-particle doses to the liver from incorporated plutonium greater than 0.01 Gy compared to those exposed to lower doses. The results of the categorical analyses of CVD incidence were in good agreement with a linear dose response for external gamma-ray doses but for internal alpha-particle doses the picture was less clear. For the first time an excess risk of CVD mortality was seen in workers whose livers were exposed to internal alpha-particle doses greater than 0.1 Gy compared to those workers who were exposed to doses of less than 0.01 Gy. A significant increasing trend for CVD mortality with internal alpha-particle dose was revealed in the subcohort of workers exposed at doses <1.0 Gy after having adjusted for nonradiation factors, ERR/Gy = 0.84 (95% CI, 0.09, 1.92). These updated results provide good evidence for a linear trend in risk of CVD incidence with external gamma-ray dose. The trend for CVD incidence with internal alpha-particle dose is less clear due to the impact of issues concerning the use of dose estimates based on below the limit of detection bioassay measurements.

Risks of circulatory diseases among Mayak PA workers with radiation doses estimated using the improved Mayak Worker Dosimetry System 2008

The new Mayak Worker Dosimetry System 2008 (MWDS-2008) was published in 2013 and supersedes the Doses-2005 dosimetry system for Mayak Production Association (PA) workers. It provides revised external and internal dose estimates based on the updated occupational history data. Using MWDS-2008, a cohort of 18,856 workers first employed at one of the main Mayak PA plants during 1948-1972 and followed up to 2005 was identified. Incidence and mortality risks from ischemic heart disease (IHD) (International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-9 codes 410-414) and from cerebrovascular diseases (CVD) (ICD-9 codes 430-438) were examined in this cohort and compared with previously published risk estimates in the same cohort based on the Doses-2005 dosimetry system. Significant associations were observed between doses from external gamma-rays and IHD and CVD incidence and also between internal doses from alpha-radiation and IHD mortality and CVD incidence. The estimates of excess relative risk (ERR)/Gy were consistent with those estimates from the previous studies based on Doses-2005 system apart from the relationship between CVD incidence and internal liver dose where the ERR/Gy based on MWDS-2008 was just over three times higher than the corresponding estimate based on Doses-2005 system. Adjustment for smoking status did not show any effect on the estimates of risk from internal alpha-particle exposure.

A review of non-cancer effects, especially circulatory and ocular diseases

There is a well-established association between high doses (>5 Gy) of ionizing radiation exposure and damage to the heart and coronary arteries, although only recently have studies with high-quality individual dosimetry been conducted that would enable quantification of this risk adjusting for concomitant chemotherapy. The association between lower dose exposures and late occurring circulatory disease has only recently begun to emerge in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors and in various occupationally exposed cohorts and is still controversial. Excess relative risks per unit dose in moderate- and low-dose epidemiological studies are somewhat variable, possibly a result of confounding and effect modification by well-known (but unobserved) risk factors. Radiation doses of 1 Gy or more are associated with increased risk of posterior subcapsular cataract. Accumulating evidence from the Japanese atomic bomb survivors, Chernobyl liquidators, US astronauts, and various other exposed groups suggests that cortical cataracts may also be associated with ionizing radiation, although there is little evidence that nuclear cataracts are radiogenic. The dose-response appears to be linear, although modest thresholds (of no more than about 0.6 Gy) cannot be ruled out. A variety of other non-malignant effects have been observed after moderate/low-dose exposure in various groups, in particular respiratory and digestive disease and central nervous system (and in particular neuro-cognitive) damage. However, because these are generally only observed in isolated groups, or because the evidence is excessively heterogeneous, these associations must be treated with caution.

Low-dose radiation exposure and protection against atherosclerosis in ApoE(-/-) mice: the influence of P53 heterozygosity

We recently described the effects of low-dose γ-radiation exposures on atherosclerosis in genetically susceptible (ApoE(-/-)) mice with normal p53 function. Doses as low as 25 mGy, given at either early or late stage disease, generally protected against atherosclerosis in a manner distinctly nonlinear with dose. We now report the influence of low doses (25-500 mGy) on atherosclerosis in ApoE(-/-) mice with reduced p53 function (Trp53(+/-)). Single exposures were given at either low or high dose rate (1 or 150 mGy/min) to female C57BL/6J ApoE(-/-) Trp53(+/-) mice. Mice were exposed at either early stage disease (2 months of age) and examined 3 or 6 months later, or at late stage disease (7 months of age) and examined 2 or 4 months later. In unirradiated mice, reduced p53 functionality elevated serum cholesterol and accelerated both aortic root lesion growth and severity in young mice. Radiation exposure to doses as low as 25 mGy at early stage disease, at either the high or the low dose rate, inhibited lesion growth, decreased lesion frequency and slowed the progression of lesion severity in the aortic root. In contrast, exposure at late stage disease produced generally detrimental effects. Both low-and high-dose-rate exposures accelerated lesion growth and high dose rate exposures also increased serum cholesterol levels. These results show that at early stage disease, reduced p53 function does not influence the protective effects against atherosclerosis of low doses given at low dose rate. In contrast, when exposed to the same doses at late stage disease, reduced p53 function produced detrimental effects, rather than the protective effects seen in Trp53 normal mice. As in the Trp53 normal mice, all effects were highly nonlinear with dose. These results indicate that variations in p53 functionality can dramatically alter the outcome of a low-dose exposure, and that the assumption of a linear response with dose for human populations is probably unwarranted.