Radiation exposure due to local fallout from Soviet atmospheric nuclear weapons testing in Kazakhstan: solid cancer mortality in the Semipalatinsk historical cohort, 1960-1999

A Historical Survey of Key Epidemiological Studies of Ionizing Radiation Exposure

In this article we review the history of key epidemiological studies of populations exposed to ionizing radiation. We highlight historical and recent findings regarding radiation-associated risks for incidence and mortality of cancer and non-cancer outcomes with emphasis on study design and methods of exposure assessment and dose estimation along with brief consideration of sources of bias for a few of the more important studies. We examine the findings from the epidemiological studies of the Japanese atomic bomb survivors, persons exposed to radiation for diagnostic or therapeutic purposes, those exposed to environmental sources including Chornobyl and other reactor accidents, and occupationally exposed cohorts. We also summarize results of pooled studies. These summaries are necessarily brief, but we provide references to more detailed information. We discuss possible future directions of study, to include assessment of susceptible populations, and possible new populations, data sources, study designs and methods of analysis.

Serum calcium and magnesium levels and quality of life in environmentally exposed populations in Kazakhstan

The relationship between the levels of essential elements and various aspects of well-being in environmentally exposed populations still needs to be better understood. The present study aims to investigate the potential connections between serum concentrations of calcium (Ca), magnesium (Mg), and quality of life (QoL) in environmentally exposed populations in Kazakhstan. The present study involved 1881 nominally healthy individuals aged 18-52 years who were permanent residents of Abay, Borodulikha, Ust-Kamenogorsk, Kurchum, Uralsk, Aksay, and Berezovka settlements. These settlements were selected to represent different types of environmental exposure: radioactive fallout from the Semipalatinsk Nuclear Test Site (SNTS), non-ferrous metallurgy, and the condensate gas field, compared to environmentally unexposed territories. The Russian version of the SF-36 questionnaire was used to assess the participants' quality of life. Serum Ca levels were measured using colorimetry with O-cresolphthalein, and serum Mg concentrations were measured using colorimetry with xylidyl blue. Both elevated and decreased serum Ca levels were more frequently observed in the environmentally exposed populations. The prevalence of hypermagnesemia was highest among residents near the condensate gas field. Environmentally exposed populations residing near the SNTS and in Ust-Kamenogorsk exhibited lower scores in some QoL domains. In contrast, people near the condensate gas field showed comparable or even higher QoL scores than the control population. Only serum Mg demonstrated a significant association with the average QoL scores, while Ca did not show such an association. These findings have important implications for public health interventions.

Dose-response analysis of protracted absorbed organ dose and site-specific cancer incidence in Sweden after the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident

Background

Adult males in Sweden exhibit an increased risk of cancer associated with an increased absorbed dose to the colon from the Chernobyl accident.

Methods

A closed cohort, with information on hunter status, included all individuals living in northern Sweden in 1986. Complete annual information on exposure to 137Cs at the dwelling coordinate was available for a total of 2,104,101 individuals. A nested case-control method with four controls matched for year of cancer diagnosis and year of birth, was used. Individual absorbed organ doses were calculated between 1986 and 2020 including external and internal exposure. Hazard ratios (HR) per mGy with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were calculated using conditional logistic regression adjusted for rural/nonrural habitat, education level and pre-Chernobyl cancer incidence 1980 to 1985. A total of 161,325 cancer cases in males and 144,439 in females were included.

Results

The adjusted HR per mGy for all cancer sites combined was 1.027 (95% CI = 1.022, 1.031) in males and 1.011 (95% CI = 1.006, 1.017) in females. In a post hoc analysis accounting for both remaining confounding from hunter lifestyle and the pre-Chernobyl cancer incidence by county, the adjusted HR per mGy for all cancer sites combined was 1.014 (95% CI = 1.009, 1.019) in males and 1.000 (95% CI = 0.994, 1.006) in females. The post hoc analysis suggested an increased risk of cancer in the colon, pancreas, and stomach, respectively, in males, and lymphoma in females.

Conclusions

Increased cancer risk estimates were found for some specific cancer sites but remaining uncontrolled confounding due to hunter lifestyle could not be ruled out.

The overview of neutron-induced 56Mn radioactive microparticle effects in experimental animals and related studies

Investigation into the risks associated with radiation exposure has been carried out on those exposed to radiation in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Semipalatinsk and other parts of the world. These risks are used as a guidance standard for the protection for radiation workers and the general public when exposed to radiation, and it sets upper regulatory limits for the amount of radiation exposure. However, the effects of internal exposure to radioactive microparticles have not been considered in these studies. These effects cannot be ignored since the exposure dose increases are inversely proportional to the square of the distance to the vicinity of the particles and can exceed tens of thousands of mGy. So far, only retrospective studies of people who have been exposed to radiation have been conducted, therefore we hypothesized that animal experiments would be necessary to investigate these effects. As a result, we found specific effects of radioactive microparticles. One particularly noteworthy finding was that internal exposure to radioactive microparticles resulted in pathological changes that were more than 20 times greater than those caused by the same level of external exposure. In contrast, there were other results that showed no such effects, and the reasons for this discrepancy need to be clarified. We also conducted RNA expression experiments and found that there was a difference between external exposure to 60Co gamma rays and internal exposure to 56Mn microparticles. In the future, we will need to study the mechanisms behind these findings. If the mechanism can be confirmed, it is expected to lead to the development of protective and therapeutic methods.

Increased cancer risk in male hunters compared to the general male population in Northern Sweden after the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant accident?

Male hunters in Swedish counties with high fallout of ¹³⁷Cs after the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) accident have higher radiation exposure due to higher consumption of game compared with the general population.

Methods

Cancer incidence in Sweden was studied in 9 counties with different ¹³⁷Cs fallout after the Chernobyl NPP accident in 1986. In total, 9,267 cancer cases occurred in hunters and 138,909 cancer cases in non-hunters to 31 December 2015. Incidence rate ratios (IRR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated using unexposed hunters, or non-hunters, as reference to study internal radiation exposure or hunter life style, respectively.

Results

Directly age standardized total cancer incidence showed an increasing trend in non-hunters. For hunters, the total cancer incidence was significantly lower up to 2001 when the total cancer incidence crossed over the weaker non-hunter trend and remained higher for the following 15 years. IRRs for total cancer in hunters versus non-hunters for each county did not show any clear exposure response pattern. IRRs for hunters versus non-hunters were higher regardless of rural/non-rural status with slightly higher risk estimates for the rural settings. The IRR for hunters was 1.06 (95% CI 1.04-1.08) 1986-2015, representing an excess of 531 cancer cases in hunters.

Conclusion

An increased total incidence of cancer was identified for male hunters compared with male non-hunters. No obvious association between cancer and ¹³⁷Cs from the Chernobyl NPP accident could be identified, although the exposure classification was too crude to exclude such an association.

Female breast cancer risk in Bryansk Oblast, Russia, following prolonged low dose rate exposure to radiation from the Chernobyl power station accident

BACKGROUND

Ionizing radiation is a known cause of female breast cancer, but there have been few studies of the risk after prolonged radiation exposure at low dose rates.

METHODS

This population-based case-control study estimated breast cancer risk after ∼25 years' exposure to radiation from the Chernobyl accident. Cases (n = 468) were women ≤55 years old when first diagnosed with invasive breast cancer during October 2008 through  February 2013, who lived in Bryansk Oblast, Russia at the time of the accident and their diagnoses. Controls, individually matched to cases on birth year, administrative district of residence and urban vs non-urban settlement during the accident, were women without breast cancer who lived in Bryansk Oblast at the time of the accident and on their cases' diagnosis dates (n = 468). Subjects were interviewed regarding residence, dietary and food source histories to support individualized estimation of their radiation doses to the breast, which ranged from 0.04 - 41 centigray (cGy) (mean 1.3 cGy).

RESULTS

In multivariable analyses, the odds ratio for breast cancer risk was 3.0 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.3, 7.0] and 2.7 (95% CI: 1.0, 7.3) in the seventh and eighth dose octiles, respectively, relative to the lowest octile. Analyses of dose effect modification suggested that radiation-related risk may have been higher in women who were younger at the time of the accident and/or at the time of diagnosis.

CONCLUSIONS

This study suggests that prolonged exposure to ionizing radiation at low dose rates can increase risk of breast cancer.

The State Scientific Automated Medical Registry, Kazakhstan: an important resource for low-dose radiation health research

Direct quantitative assessment of health risks following exposure to ionizing radiation is based on findings from epidemiological studies. Populations affected by nuclear bomb testing are among those that allow such assessment. The population living around the former Soviet Union's Semipalatinsk nuclear test site is one of the largest human cohorts exposed to radiation from nuclear weapons tests. Following research that started in the 1960s, a registry that contains information on more than 300,000 individuals residing in the areas neighboring to the test site was established. Four nuclear weapons tests, conducted from 1949 to 1956, resulted in non-negligible radiation exposures to the public, corresponding up to approximately 300 mGy external dose. The registry contains relevant information about those who lived at the time of the testing as well as about their offspring, including biological material. An international group of scientists worked together within the research project SEMI-NUC funded by the European Union, and concluded that the registry provides a novel, mostly unexplored, and valuable resource for the assessment of the population risks associated with environmental radiation exposure. Suggestions for future studies and pathways on how to use the best dose assessment strategies have also been described in the project. Moreover, the registry could be used for research on other relevant public health topics.

Increased prevalence of essential hypertension in areas previously exposed to fallout due to nuclear weapons testing at the Semipalatinsk Test Site, Kazakhstan

This study examines the association between environmental radiation exposure and essential hypertension in a series of investigated geographical districts adjacent to the Semipalatinsk nuclear test site in Kazakhstan. The sample consists of 2000 volunteers participants in screening examinations in three administrative districts close to the nuclear test site, which was carried out as part of the Government Programs on Environmental Health Hazard. The cross-sectional study compares prevalence ratios in a population sample with long-term exposure in the low and intermediate dose range. Age-adjusted odds ratios for hypertension were found significantly increased with higher exposure groups. After accounting for main cardiovascular risk factors into the model and stratifying by gender, the prevalence odds ratios for radiation remained significantly increased, with a significant dose-response effect observed for some but not all subgroups. The results support existing evidence of cardiovascular health effects of radiation exposure and of persisting environmental health issues that require attention in both epidemiological surveys and healthcare provision.

Health Impacts of Low-Dose Ionizing Radiation: Current Scientific Debates and Regulatory Issues

Health impacts of low-dose ionizing radiation are significant in important fields such as X-ray imaging, radiation therapy, nuclear power, and others. However, all existing and potential applications are currently challenged by public concerns and regulatory restrictions. We aimed to assess the validity of the linear no-threshold (LNT) model of radiation damage, which is the basis of current regulation, and to assess the justification for this regulation. We have conducted an extensive search in PubMed. Special attention has been given to papers cited in comprehensive reviews of the United States (2006) and French (2005) Academies of Sciences and in the United Nations Scientific Committee on Atomic Radiation 2016 report. Epidemiological data provide essentially no evidence for detrimental health effects below 100 mSv, and several studies suggest beneficial (hormetic) effects. Equally significant, many studies with in vitro and in animal models demonstrate that several mechanisms initiated by low-dose radiation have beneficial effects. Overall, although probably not yet proven to be untrue, LNT has certainly not been proven to be true. At this point, taking into account the high price tag (in both economic and human terms) borne by the LNT-inspired regulation, there is little doubt that the present regulatory burden should be reduced.

Spatial and vertical distribution of radiocesium in seawater of the East China Sea

The ¹³⁷Cs activity in surface water of the East China Sea (ECS) was 0.66-1.36 Bq m^-3 during May of 2011. The low activities were observed in the Changjiang Estuary and Zhejiang-Fujian coast and high activities were observed in the south offshore and Kuroshio Current pathway, suggesting that the influence from the current system in the ECS. The ¹³⁴Cs were undetectable (<0.03 Bq m^-3) and the contribution of the Fukushima accident to ECS is estimated to be below 3%; hence it is negligible during the investigation period. Using the vertical profiles of ¹³⁷Cs in the ECS, the mass balance is obtained, which suggests that the oceanic input dominates the ¹³⁷Cs source in the ECS. ¹³⁷Cs is potentially useful to trace water mass movement in the ECS. Our study provides comprehensive baseline of ¹³⁷Cs in the ECS for evaluation of the possible influence of the nuclear power plants in the future.

Bioavailable serum estradiol may alter radiation risk of postmenopausal breast cancer: a nested case-control study

PURPOSE

Ionizing radiation and high levels of circulating estradiol are known breast cancer carcinogens. We investigated the risk of first primary postmenopausal breast cancer in relation to the combined effects of whole-body ionizing radiation exposure and prediagnostic levels of postmenopausal sex hormones, particularly bioavailable estradiol (bE2).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A nested case-control study of 57 incident breast cancer cases matched with 110 controls among atomic bomb survivors. Joint effects of breast radiation dose and circulating levels of sex hormones were assessed using binary regression and path analysis.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSION

Radiation exposure, higher levels of bE2, testosterone and progesterone, and established reproductive risk factors were positively associated with postmenopausal breast cancer risk. A test for mediation of the effect of radiation via bE2 level suggested a small (14%) but significant mediation (p = 0.004). The estimated interaction between radiation and bE2 was large but not significant (interaction = 3.86; p = 0.32). There is accumulating evidence that ionizing radiation not only damages DNA but also alters other organ systems. While caution is needed, some portion of the radiation risk of postmenopausal breast cancer appeared to be mediated through bE2 levels, which may be evidence for cancer risks due to both direct and indirect effects of radiation.

Radium, biophysics, and radiobiology: tracing the history of radiobiology in twentieth-century China

Radiobiology assesses the biological hazards of exposure to radioactive substances and nuclear radiation. This article explores the history of radiobiology in twentieth-century China by examining the overlapping of radium research and biophysics, from roughly the 1920s Nationalist period to the 1960s Communist period; from the foreign purchase of radium by the Rockefeller Foundation's China Medical Board during the Republican era, to the institutional establishment of radiobiology as a subset of biophysics in the People's Republic. Western historiography of radiobiology highlights the connection between the military development of nuclear weapons and the civilian use of radiation in biology, as well as the international export of radioisotopes and nuclear reactors. Considering the exclusion of China from Western atomic diplomacy, I argue that the study of the Chinese history of bomb-making and radiobiology is necessary not just to fill an existing knowledge gap, but more importantly to elucidate the influence of the Chinese nuclear weapons program and Cold War atomic politics on Chinese life-science enterprises. Through examining the formational history of the radiobiology program in China, I hope to shed light on the implications of the atomic age for Chinese biology in the twentieth century.

Studies of Health Effects from Nuclear Testing near the Semipalatinsk Nuclear Test Site, Kazakhstan

The nuclear bomb testing conducted at the Semipalatinsk nuclear test site in Kazakhstan is of great importance for today's radiation protection research, particularly in the area of low dose exposures. This type of radiation is of particular interest due to the lack of research in this field and how it impacts population health. In order to understand the possible health effects of nuclear bomb testing, it is important to determine what studies have been conducted on the effects of low dose exposure and dosimetry, and evaluate new epidemiologic data and biological material collected from populations living in proximity to the test site. With time, new epidemiological data has been made available, and it is possible that these data may be linked to biological samples. Next to linking existing and newly available data to examine health effects, the existing dosimetry system needs to be expanded and further developed to include residential areas, which have not yet been taken into account. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of previous studies evaluating the health effects of nuclear testing, including some information on dosimetry efforts, and pointing out directions for future epidemiologic studies.

Thyroid cancer incidence in the vicinity of nuclear sites in Belgium, 2000-2008

BACKGROUND

Public health concern about nuclear activities have existed since the 1980s. Most studies on this subject investigated childhood leukemia. Thyroid cancer may be another health outcome of interest, because some nuclear installations are a potential source of radioactive iodine isotopes in the environment and because thyroid cancer is known to occur after exposure to these isotopes.

METHODS

This study describes an ecological study investigating whether there is excessive thyroid cancer incidence among residents living in the vicinity of nuclear sites. Single-site analyses using indirect standardization (standardized incidence ratios [SIRs]) and Poisson regression modeling (rate ratios [RRs]) were conducted. The proximity area is typically defined as a circular zone with a radius of 20 km centered on the site. However, the choice of the size of this area is somewhat arbitrary. Therefore, a sensitivity analysis was carried out to investigate whether the results vary with radii of increasing proximity.

RESULTS

No increased thyroid cancer incidence was found within the 20 km proximity area around the nuclear power plants of Doel (SIR=0.74 [95% confidence interval (CI)=0.64; 0.84] and RR=0.72 [95% CI=0.63; 0.83]) and Tihange (SIR=0.86 [95% CI=0.70; 1.01] and RR=0.85 [95% CI=0.70; 1.02]). For the sites of Mol-Dessel and Fleurus, where a combination of nuclear research and industrial activities are located, the incidences of thyroid cancer within the 20 km proximity area were higher than expected (Mol-Dessel: SIR=1.19 [95% CI=1.01; 1.36] and RR=1.19 [95% CI=1.02; 1.38]; Fleurus: SIR=1.15 [95% CI=1.02; 1.28] and RR=1.17 [95% CI=1.04; 1.33]). For Chooz, a French nuclear power plant close to the Belgian border, the results were unstable as a result of the small population denominator. For all Belgian nuclear sites, the results were generally insensitive to the choice of the proximity area.

CONCLUSIONS

No evidence for excessive thyroid cancer incidence around the Belgian nuclear power plants was found. On the other hand, an increased incidence of thyroid cancer was observed around the sites with other nuclear activities. Further research is recommended to verify whether the observed increases could be related to the site-specific nuclear activities.

Radiation impacts on human health: certain, fuzzy, and unknown

The atomic bomb and other studies have established with certainty that moderate-to-high doses of radiation cause many types of solid cancer and leukemia. Moving down the dose range to the vicinity of 100-200 mSv, the risks become fuzzy and then unknown at low doses on the order of 10-20 mSv. Nor have low-dose experimental studies provided definitive answers: some have suggested there may be adverse biological effects in the range of 5-50 mSv, while others support a "no risk" interpretation. Epidemiologic data contain intrinsic "noise" (variation by known and unknown factors related to genetics, lifestyle, other environmental exposures, sociodemographics, diagnostic accuracy, etc.) so are generally too insensitive to provide compelling answers in the low-dose range. However, there have been recent provocative reports regarding risk from relatively low-dose occupational and medical radiation exposures that warrant careful consideration. Summaries of the largest studies with low-dose or low dose-rate radiation exposure provide suggestive evidence of risk for solid cancer and stronger evidence for leukemia risk. Recently, interest in health endpoints other than cancer also has risen sharply, in particular the degree of cardiovascular and cataract risk following doses under 1 Sv. Data regarding cardiovascular disease are limited and fuzzy, with suggestions of inconsistencies, and the risk at low doses is essentially unknown. The evidence of cataract risk after low dose-rate exposures among those conducting interventional medical radiological procedures is becoming strong. The magnitude of radiation impacts on human health requires fuller documentation, especially for low-dose or low dose-rate exposures. From the epidemiologic vantage point, this will require longer observation of existing irradiated cohorts and development of new informative cohorts, improved accuracy in dose assessments, more attention to confounding variables, and more biosamples from irradiated groups to enable translational radiobiological studies. Introduction of Radiation Impacts on Human Health (Video 2:02, http://links.lww.com/HP/A35).

A reanalysis of curvature in the dose response for cancer and modifications by age at exposure following radiation therapy for benign disease

PURPOSE

To assess the shape of the dose response for various cancer endpoints and modifiers by age and time.

METHODS AND MATERIALS

Reanalysis of the US peptic ulcer data testing for heterogeneity of radiogenic risk by cancer endpoint (stomach, pancreas, lung, leukemia, all other).

RESULTS

There are statistically significant (P<.05) excess risks for all cancer and for lung cancer and borderline statistically significant risks for stomach cancer (P=.07), and leukemia (P=.06), with excess relative risks Gy(-1) of 0.024 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.011, 0.039), 0.559 (95% CI 0.221, 1.021), 0.042 (95% CI -0.002, 0.119), and 1.087 (95% CI -0.018, 4.925), respectively. There is statistically significant (P=.007) excess risk of pancreatic cancer when adjusted for dose-response curvature. General downward curvature is apparent in the dose response, statistically significant (P<.05) for all cancers, pancreatic cancer, and all other cancers (ie, other than stomach, pancreas, lung, leukemia). There are indications of reduction in relative risk with increasing age at exposure (for all cancers, pancreatic cancer), but no evidence for quadratic variations in relative risk with age at exposure. If a linear-exponential dose response is used, there is no significant heterogeneity in the dose response among the 5 endpoints considered or in the speed of variation of relative risk with age at exposure. The risks are generally consistent with those observed in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors and in groups of nuclear workers.

CONCLUSIONS

There are excess risks for various malignancies in this data set. Generally there is a marked downward curvature in the dose response and significant reduction in relative risk with increasing age at exposure. The consistency of risks with those observed in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors and in groups of nuclear workers implies that there may be little sparing effect of fractionation of dose or low-dose-rate exposure.

Radiation doses among residents living 37 km northwest of the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant

External and internal radiation doses were estimated for 15 residents who lived approximately 37 km northwest of the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant, which released radioactive plumes on March 11, 2011 as the result of the Tohoku earthquake and subsequent tsunami damage. Residents were interviewed on where they stayed and what they ate after the incident. To estimate external dose, the air dose rate around each person's home was measured, and cumulative effective doses up to 54 d after the deposition were calculated. To estimate committed effective dose, urinary bioassays were performed using a low-background Ge spectrometer on 54 d and 78-85 d after the deposition. The average cumulative effective dose was 8.4 mSv for adults and 5.1 mSv for children. The average committed effective dose from (134)Cs and (137)Cs was 0.055 mSv for adults and 0.029 mSv for children. Iodine-131 was observed from urinary samples of five residents, the equivalent doses for thyroid gland were 27-66 mSv at maximum. We discuss the necessity of reducing the risk of further exposure.

Mortality from cardiovascular diseases in the Semipalatinsk historical cohort, 1960-1999, and its relationship to radiation exposure

The data on risk of mortality from cardiovascular disease due to radiation exposure at low or medium doses are inconsistent. This paper reports an analysis of the Semipalatinsk historical cohort exposed to radioactive fallout from nuclear testing in the vicinity of the Semipalatinsk Nuclear Test Site, Kazakhstan. The cohort study, which includes 19,545 persons of exposed and comparison villages in the Semipalatinsk region, had been set up in the 1960s and comprises 582,656 person-years of follow-up between 1960 and 1999. A dosimetric approach developed by the U.S. National Cancer Institute (NCI) has been used. Radiation dose estimates in this cohort range from 0 to 630 mGy (whole-body external). Overall, the exposed population showed a high mortality from cardiovascular disease. Rates of mortality from cardiovascular disease in the exposed group substantially exceeded those of the comparison group. Dose-response analyses were conducted for both the entire cohort and the exposed group only. A dose-response relationship that was found when analyzing the entire cohort could be explained completely by differences between the baseline rates in exposed and unexposed groups. When taking this difference into account, no statistically significant dose-response relationship for all cardiovascular disease, for heart disease, or for stroke was found. Our results suggest that within this population and at the level of doses estimated, there is no detectable risk of radiation-related mortality from cardiovascular disease.

Review and evaluation of updated research on the health effects associated with low-dose ionising radiation

While radiation health risks at low doses have traditionally been estimated from high-dose studies, we have reviewed recent literature and concluded that the mechanisms of action for many biological endpoints may be different at low doses from those observed at high doses; that acute doses <100 mSv may be too small to allow epidemiological detection of excess cancers given the background of naturally occurring cancers; that low-dose radiation research should use holistic approaches such as systems-based methods to develop models that define the shape of the dose-response relationship; and that these results should be combined with the latest epidemiology to produce a comprehensive understanding of radiation effects that addresses both damage, likely with a linear effect, and response, possibly with non-linear consequences. Continued research is needed to understand how radiobiology and epidemiology advances should be used to effectively model radiation worker risks.

Is cancer risk of radiation workers larger than expected?

Occupational exposures to ionising radiation mainly occur at low-dose rates and may accumulate effective doses of up to several hundred milligray. The objective of the present study is to evaluate the evidence of cancer risks from such low-dose-rate, moderate-dose (LDRMD) exposures. Our literature search for primary epidemiological studies on cancer incidence and mortality risks from LDRMD exposures included publications from 2002 to 2007, and an update of the UK National Registry for Radiation Workers study. For each (LDRMD) study we calculated the risk for the same types of cancer among the atomic bomb survivors with the same gender proportion and matched quantities for dose, mean age attained and mean age at exposure. A combined estimator of the ratio of the excess relative risk per dose from the LDRMD study to the corresponding value for the atomic bomb survivors was 1.21 (90% CI 0.51 to 1.90). The present analysis does not confirm that the cancer risk per dose for LDRMD exposures is lower than for the atomic bomb survivors. This result challenges the cancer risk values currently assumed for occupational exposures.

Low-dose radiation epidemiology studies: status and issues

Although the Japanese atomic bomb study and radiotherapy studies have clearly documented cancer risks from high-dose radiation exposures, radiation risk assessment groups have long recognized that protracted or low exposures to low-linear energy transfer radiations are key radiation protection concerns because these are far more common than high-exposure scenarios. Epidemiologic studies of human populations with low-dose or low dose-rate exposures are one approach to addressing those concerns. A number of large studies of radiation workers (Chernobyl clean-up workers, U.S. and Chinese radiological technologists, and the 15-country worker study) or of persons exposed to environmental radiation at moderate to low levels (residents near Techa River, Semipalatinsk, Chernobyl, or nuclear facilities) have been conducted. A variety of studies of medical radiation exposures (multiple-fluoroscopy, diagnostic (131)I, scatter radiation doses from radiotherapy, etc.) also are of interest. Key results from these studies are summarized and compared with risk estimates from the Japanese atomic bomb study. Ideally, one would like the low-dose and low dose-rate studies to guide radiation risk estimation regarding the shape of the dose-response curve, DDREF (dose and dose-rate effectiveness factor), and risk at low doses. However, the degree to which low-dose studies can do so is subject to various limitations, especially those pertaining to dosimetric uncertainties and limited statistical power. The identification of individuals who are particularly susceptible to radiation cancer induction also is of high interest in terms of occupational and medical radiation protection. Several examples of studies of radiation-related cancer susceptibility are discussed, but none thus far have clearly identified radiation-susceptible genotypes.

Perspective on the use of LNT for radiation protection and risk assessment by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) bases its risk assessments, regulatory limits, and nonregulatory guidelines for population exposures to low level ionizing radiation on the linear no-threshold (LNT) hypothesis, which assumes that the risk of cancer due to a low dose exposure is proportional to dose, with no threshold. The use of LNT for radiation protection purposes has been repeatedly endorsed by authoritative scientific advisory bodies, including the National Academy of Sciences' BEIR Committees, whose recommendations form a primary basis of EPA's risk assessment methodology. Although recent radiobiological findings indicate novel damage and repair processes at low doses, LNT is supported by data from both epidemiology and radiobiology. Given the current state of the science, the consensus positions of key scientific and governmental bodies, as well as the conservatism and calculational convenience of the LNT assumption, it is unlikely that EPA will modify this approach in the near future.

Heterogeneity of variation of relative risk by age at exposure in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors

General reductions in cancer relative risk with increasing age at exposure are observed in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors and in other groups. However, there has been little evidence of heterogeneity in such trends by cancer type within the Japanese cohort, nor for cancer-type variations in other factors (sex, attained age) that modify relative risk. A recent report on the Japanese atomic bomb survivors published by Preston et al. in 2007 suggests that solid cancer relative risk exhibits a U-shaped relationship with age at exposure, and is initially decreasing and then increasing at older exposure ages. In this report, we reanalyse the latest Japanese atomic bomb survivor solid cancer mortality and incidence data analysed by Preston and co-workers, stratifying by cancer subtype where possible, the stratification being both in relation to the baseline and the radiation-associated excess. We find highly statistically significant (P < 0.001) variations of relative risk by cancer type, and statistically significant variations by cancer type in the adjustments for sex (P = 0.010) and age at exposure (P = 0.013) to the relative risk. There is no statistically significant (P > 0.2) variation by cancer type in the adjustment of relative risk for attained age. Although, for all incident solid cancers, there is marginally statistically significant (P = 0.033) variation of relative risk with a quadratic log-linear function of age at exposure, there is much weaker variation in the relative risk of solid cancer mortality (P > 0.1). However, the manner in which relative risk varies with age at exposure is qualitatively similar for incidence and mortality, so one should not make too much of these differences between the two datasets. Stratification by solid cancer type slightly weakens the evidence for quadratic variation in relative risk by age at exposure (P = 0.060).

Breast cancer incidence following low-dose rate environmental exposure: Techa River Cohort, 1956-2004

In the 1950s, the Mayak nuclear weapons facility in Russia discharged liquid radioactive wastes into the Techa River causing exposure of riverside residents to protracted low-to-moderate doses of radiation. Almost 10,000 women received estimated doses to the stomach of up to 0.47 Gray (Gy) (mean dose=0.04 Gy) from external gamma-exposure and (137)Cs incorporation. We have been following this population for cancer incidence and mortality and as in the general Russian population, we found a significant temporal trend of breast cancer incidence. A significant linear radiation dose-response relationship was observed (P=0.01) with an estimated excess relative risk per Gray (ERR/Gy) of 5.00 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.80, 12.76). We estimated that approximately 12% of the 109 observed cases could be attributed to radiation.

Brain tumor epidemiology: consensus from the Brain Tumor Epidemiology Consortium

Epidemiologists in the Brain Tumor Epidemiology Consortium (BTEC) have prioritized areas for further research. Although many risk factors have been examined over the past several decades, there are few consistent findings, possibly because of small sample sizes in individual studies and differences between studies in patients, tumor types, and methods of classification. Individual studies generally have lacked samples of sufficient size to examine interactions. A major priority based on available evidence and technologies includes expanding research in genetics and molecular epidemiology of brain tumors. BTEC has taken an active role in promoting understudied groups, such as pediatric brain tumors; the etiology of rare glioma subtypes, such as oligodendroglioma; and meningioma, which, although it is not uncommon, has only recently been registered systematically in the United States. There also is a pressing need for more researchers, especially junior investigators, to study brain tumor epidemiology. However, relatively poor funding for brain tumor research has made it difficult to encourage careers in this area. In this report, BTEC epidemiologists reviewed the group's consensus on the current state of scientific findings, and they present a consensus on research priorities to identify which important areas the science should move to address.

High frequency of AML1/RUNX1 point mutations in radiation-associated myelodysplastic syndrome around Semipalatinsk nuclear test site

It is known that bone marrow is a sensitive organ to ionizing radiation, and many patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) or myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) have been diagnosed in radiation-treated cases and atomic bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The AML1/RUNX1 gene has been known to be frequently mutated in MDS/AML patients among atomic bomb survivors and radiation therapy-related MDS/AML patients. In this study, we investigated the AML1 mutations in radiation-exposed patients with MDS/AML among the residents near the Semipalatinsk Nuclear Test Site (SNTS), where the risk of solid cancers and leukemias was increased due to the radiation effects. AML1 mutations were identified in 7 (39%) of 18 radiation-exposed MDS/AML patients. In contrast, no AML1 mutation was found in 13 unexposed MDS/AML cases. The frequency of AML1 mutations in radiation-exposed patients with MDS/AML was significantly higher compared with unexposed patients (p < 0.05).We also found a significant correlation between individual estimated doses and AML1 mutations (p < 0.05). Considering these results, AML1 point mutations might be a useful biomarker that differentiates radio-induced MDS/AML from spontaneous MDS/AML.

Ultrasound-detected thyroid nodule prevalence and radiation dose from fallout

Settlements near the Semipalatinsk Test Site (SNTS) in northeastern Kazakhstan were exposed to radioactive fallout during 1949-1962. Thyroid disease prevalence among 2994 residents of eight villages was ascertained by ultrasound screening. Malignancy was determined by cytopathology. Individual thyroid doses from external and internal radiation sources were reconstructed from fallout deposition patterns, residential histories and diet, including childhood milk consumption. Point estimates of individual external and internal dose averaged 0.04 Gy (range 0-0.65) and 0.31 Gy (0-9.6), respectively, with a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.46. Ultrasound-detected thyroid nodule prevalence was 18% and 39% among males and females, respectively. It was significantly and independently associated with both external and internal dose, the main study finding. The estimated relative biological effectiveness of internal compared to external radiation dose was 0.33, with 95% confidence bounds of 0.09-3.11. Prevalence of papillary cancer was 0.9% and was not significantly associated with radiation dose. In terms of excess relative risk per unit dose, our dose-response findings for nodule prevalence are comparable to those from populations exposed to medical X rays and to acute radiation from the Hiroshima and Nagasaki atomic bombings.

What can epidemiology tell us about risks at low doses?

Puskin, J. S. What Can Epidemiology Tell Us about Risks at Low Doses? Radiat. Res. 169, 122-124 (2008). Limitations on statistical power preclude direct detection and quantification of radiogenic cancer risks at very low (environmental) levels of low-LET radiation through epidemiological studies. Given this limitation and our incomplete understanding of cellular processes leading to radiation carcinogenesis, an "effective threshold" in the dose range of interest for radiation protection cannot yet be ruled out. Ongoing epidemiological studies of chronically exposed individuals receiving very low daily doses of radiation can be used, however, together with radiobiological data, to critically test whether such a threshold is plausible.

Are cancer risks associated with exposures to ionising radiation from internal emitters greater than those in the Japanese A-bomb survivors?

After ingestion or inhalation of radionuclides, internal organs of the human body will be exposed to ionising radiation. Current risk estimates of radiation-associated cancer from internal emitters are largely based on extrapolation of risk from high-dose externally exposed groups. Concerns have been expressed that extrapolated risk estimates from internal emitters are greatly underestimated, by factors of ten or more, thus implying a severe underestimation of the true risks. Therefore, data on cancer mortality and incidence in a number of groups who received exposure predominantly from internal emitters are examined and excess relative risks per Sv are compared with comparable (age at exposure, time since exposure, gender) matched subsets of the Japanese atomic bomb survivor cohort. Risks are examined separately for low LET and high LET internal emitters. There are eight studies informative for the effects of internal low LET radiation exposure and 12 studies informative for the effects of internal high LET radiation. For 11 of the 20 cancer endpoints (subgroups of particular study cohorts) examined in the low LET internal emitter studies, the best estimate of the excess relative risk is greater than the corresponding estimate in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors and for the other nine it is less. For four of these 20 studies, the relative risk is significantly (2-sided P < 0.05) different from that in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors, in three cases greater than the atomic bomb survivor relative risk and in one case less. Considering only those six low LET studies/endpoints with 100 or more deaths or cases, for four out of six studies/endpoints the internal emitter risk is greater than that in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors. For seven of the 24 cancer endpoints examined in the high LET internal emitter studies the best estimate of the ERR in the internal emitter study is greater than the corresponding estimate in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors and for the other 17 it is less. For six studies, the relative risk is significantly (2-sided P < 0.05) different from that in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors, in one case greater than the atomic bomb survivor relative risk and in five cases less. Considering only those eight high LET studies/endpoints with 100 or more deaths or cases, for five out of eight studies/endpoints the internal emitter risk is greater than that in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors. These results suggest that excess relative risks in the internal emitter studies do not appreciably differ from those in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors. However, there are substantial uncertainties in estimates of risks in the internal emitter studies, particularly in relation to lung cancer associated with radon daughter (alpha particle) exposure, so a measure of caution should be exercised in these conclusions.

The complexity of aging: are some aging processes more equal than others?

In his pleasantly provocative opinion paper, Aubrey de Grey's argues that (a) independent age-related deteriorative processes evolve to reach approximately equal importance for the aging process as a whole, but (b) this equality can be broken by "protagonistic pleiotropies", i.e. when a process is contributing to more than one competing death causes. In particular, the fact that nDNA mutations are extremely efficient in killing by inducing cancer implies that these mutations should be irrelevant for non-cancer aging. In my opinion, (a) independent processes may not necessarily attain equal importance because of different inherent susceptibility of the corresponding genes or gene networks to evolutionary change. However, once this is taken in consideration, a refined evolutionary argument does imply that in protected environment, continuing lifespan extension will eventually make any age-progressive degenerative process a significant contributor to aging and (b) protagonistic pleiotropies may be ineffective in making degenerative processes irrelevant for aging if multiple protective pathways are available to neutralize them.

Smoking and hormesis as confounding factors in radiation pulmonary carcinogenesis

Confounding factors in radiation pulmonary carcinogenesis are passive and active cigarette smoke exposures and radiation hormesis. Significantly increased lung cancer risk from ionizing radiation at lung doses < 1 Gy is not observed in never smokers exposed to ionizing radiations. Residential radon is not a cause of lung cancer in never smokers and may protect against lung cancer in smokers. The risk of lung cancer found in many epidemiological studies was less than the expected risk (hormetic effect) for nuclear weapons and power plant workers, shipyard workers, fluoroscopy patients, and inhabitants of high-dose background radiation. The protective effect was noted for low- and mixed high- and low-linear energy transfer (LET) radiations in both genders. Many studies showed a protection factor (PROFAC) > 0.40 (40% avoided) against the occurrence of lung cancer. The ubiquitous nature of the radiation hormesis response in cellular, animal, and epidemio-logical studies negates the healthy worker effect as an explanation for radiation hormesis. Low-dose radiation may stimulate DNA repair/apoptosis and immunity to suppress and eliminate cigarette-smoke-induced transformed cells in the lung, reducing lung cancer occurrence in smokers.

Marjolin's ulcer revisited--basal cell carcinoma arising from grenade fragments? Case report and review of the literature

BACKGROUND

Marjolin's ulcer is a rare and often aggressive cutaneous malignancy arising in previously traumatized or chronically inflamed skin.

METHOD

CASE REPORT

A 79-year-old World War II veteran developed basal cell carcinoma (BCC) at the site of a war wound. The tumour developed in relation to several metal grenade fragments. With a disease-free interval of 61 years between injury and onset of complications the patient had one of the longest latency periods of tumour development described so far.

RESULTS

Review of the literature reveals only five cases of relation between grenade fragments and malignancy formation. Presence of foreign bodies has been described as possible aetiology for malignancy development. Explosives and additives contain several mutagenic and tumourigenic substances. We hypothesize a causal connection between the grenade fragments and the development of BCC. Considering the long period of latency between injury and tumour development we suggest grenade injury with left fragments in soft tissue to be a new origin of Marjolin's ulcer.