Scaling the extinction vortex: Body size as a predictor of population dynamics close to extinction events

Mutual reinforcement between abiotic and biotic factors can drive small populations into a catastrophic downward spiral to extinction-a process known as the "extinction vortex." However, empirical studies investigating extinction dynamics in relation to species' traits have been lacking.We assembled a database of 35 vertebrate populations monitored to extirpation over a period of at least ten years, represented by 32 different species, including 25 birds, five mammals, and two reptiles. We supplemented these population time series with species-specific mean adult body size to investigate whether this key intrinsic trait affects the dynamics of populations declining toward extinction.We performed three analyses to quantify the effects of adult body size on three characteristics of population dynamics: time to extinction, population growth rate, and residual variability in population growth rate.Our results provide support for the existence of extinction vortex dynamics in extirpated populations. We show that populations typically decline nonlinearly to extinction, while both the rate of population decline and variability in population growth rate increase as extinction is approached. Our results also suggest that smaller-bodied species are particularly prone to the extinction vortex, with larger increases in rates of population decline and population growth rate variability when compared to larger-bodied species.Our results reaffirm and extend our understanding of extinction dynamics in real-life extirpated populations. In particular, we suggest that smaller-bodied species may be at greater risk of rapid collapse to extinction than larger-bodied species, and thus, management of smaller-bodied species should focus on maintaining higher population abundances as a priority.

Impacts of tropical forest disturbance on species vital rates

Tropical forests are experiencing enormous threats from deforestation and habitat degradation. Much knowledge of the impacts of these land-use changes on tropical species comes from studies examining patterns of richness and abundance. Demographic vital rates (survival, reproduction, and movement) can also be affected by land-use change in a way that increases species vulnerability to extirpation, but in many cases these impacts may not be manifested in short-term changes in abundance or species richness. We conducted a literature review to assess current knowledge and research effort concerning how land-use change affects species vital rates in tropical forest vertebrates. We found a general paucity of empirical research on demography across taxa and regions, with some biases toward mammals and birds and land-use transitions, including fragmentation and agriculture. There is also considerable between-species variation in demographic responses to land-use change, which could reflect trait-based differences in species sensitivity, complex context dependencies (e.g., between-region variation), or inconsistency in methods used in studies. Efforts to improve understanding of anthropogenic impacts on species demography are underway, but there is a need for increased research effort to fill knowledge gaps in understudied tropical regions and taxa. The lack of information on demographic impacts of anthropogenic disturbance makes it difficult to draw definite conclusions about the magnitude of threats to tropical ecosystems under anthropogenic pressures. Thus, determining conservation priorities and improving conservation effectiveness remains a challenge.

Genetic assessment of a bighorn sheep population expansion in the Silver Bell Mountains, Arizona

Background

The isolated population of desert bighorn sheep in the Silver Bell Mountains of southern Arizona underwent an unprecedented expansion in merely four years. We hypothesized that immigration from neighboring bighorn sheep populations could have caused the increase in numbers as detected by Arizona Game and Fish Department annual aerial counts.

Methods

We applied a multilocus genetic approach using mitochondrial DNA and nuclear microsatellite markers for genetic analyses to find evidence of immigration. We sampled the Silver Bell Mountains bighorn sheep before (2003) and during (2015) the population expansion, and a small number of available samples from the Gila Mountains (southwestern Arizona) and the Morenci Mine (Rocky Mountain bighorn) in an attempt to identify the source of putative immigrants and, more importantly, to serve as comparisons for genetic diversity metrics.

Results

We did not find evidence of substantial gene flow into the Silver Bell Mountains population. We did not detect any new mitochondrial haplotypes in the 2015 bighorn sheep samples. The microsatellite analyses detected only one new allele, in one individual from the 2015 population that was not detected in the 2003 samples. Overall, the genetic diversity of the Silver Bell Mountains population was lower than that seen in either the Gila population or the Morenci Mine population.

Discussion

Even though the results of this study did not help elucidate the precise reason for the recent population expansion, continued monitoring and genetic sampling could provide more clarity on the genetic demographics of this population.

Using field data to quantify chemical impacts on wildlife population viability

Environmental pollution is an important driver of biodiversity loss. Yet, to date, the effects of chemical exposure on wildlife populations have been quantified for only a few species, mainly due to a lack of appropriate laboratory data to quantify chemical impacts on vital rates. In this study, we developed a method to quantify the effects of toxicant exposure on wildlife population persistence based on field monitoring data. We established field-based vital-rate-response functions for toxicants, using quantile regression to correct for the influences of confounding factors on the vital rates observed, and combined the response curves with population viability modelling. We then applied the method to quantify the impact of DDE on three bird species: the White-tailed Eagle, Bald Eagle, and Osprey. Population viability was expressed via five population extinction vulnerability metrics: population growth rate (r₁ ), critical patch size (CPS), minimum viable population size (MVP), probability of population extirpation (PE), and median time to population extirpation (MTE). We found that past DDE exposure concentrations increased population extirpation vulnerabilities of all three bird species. For example, at DDE concentrations of 25 mg/kg wet mass of egg (the maximum historic exposure concentration reported in literature for the Osprey), r₁ became small (White-tailed Eagle and Osprey) or close to zero (Bald Eagle), the CPS increased up to almost the size of Connecticut (White-tailed Eagle and Osprey) or West Virginia (Bald Eagle), the MVP increased up to approximately 90 (White-tailed Eagle and Osprey) or 180 breeding pairs (Bald Eagle), the PE increased up to almost certain extirpation (Bald Eagle) or only slightly elevated levels (White-tailed Eagle and Osprey) and the MTE became within decades (Bald Eagle) or remained longer than a millennium (White-tailed Eagle and Osprey). Our study provides a method to derive species-specific field-based response curves of toxicant exposure, which can be used to assess population extinction vulnerabilities and obtain critical levels of toxicant exposure based on maximum permissible effect levels. This may help conservation managers to better design appropriate habitat restoration and population recovery measures, such as reducing toxicant levels, increasing the area of suitable habitat or reintroducing individuals.

Colonial, more widely distributed and less abundant bird species undergo wider population fluctuations independent of their population trend

Understanding temporal variability in population size is important for conservation biology because wide population fluctuations increase the risk of extinction. Previous studies suggested that certain ecological, demographic, life-history and genetic characteristics of species might be related to the degree of their population fluctuations. We checked whether that was the case in a large sample of 231 European breeding bird species while taking a number of potentially confounding factors such as population trends or similarities among species due to common descent into account. When species-specific characteristics were analysed one by one, the magnitude of population fluctuations was positively related to coloniality, habitat, total breeding range, heterogeneity of breeding distribution and natal dispersal, and negatively related to urbanisation, abundance, relative number of subspecies, parasitism and proportion of polymorphic loci. However, when abundance (population size) was included in the analyses of the other parameters, only coloniality, habitat, total breeding range and abundance remained significantly related to population fluctuations. The analysis including all these predictors simultaneously showed that population size fluctuated more in colonial, less abundant species with larger breeding ranges. Other parameters seemed to be related to population fluctuations only because of their association with abundance or coloniality. The unexpected positive relationship between population fluctuations and total breeding range did not seem to be mediated by abundance. The link between population fluctuations and coloniality suggests a previously unrecognized cost of coloniality. The negative relationship between population size and population fluctuations might be explained by at least three types of non-mutually exclusive stochastic processes: demographic, environmental and genetic stochasticity. Measurement error in population indices, which was unknown, may have contributed to the negative relationship between population size and fluctuations, but apparently only to a minor extent. The association between population size and fluctuations suggests that populations might be stabilized by increasing population size.

Extrapolating demography with climate, proximity and phylogeny: approach with caution

Plant population responses are key to understanding the effects of threats such as climate change and invasions. However, we lack demographic data for most species, and the data we have are often geographically aggregated. We determined to what extent existing data can be extrapolated to predict population performance across larger sets of species and spatial areas. We used 550 matrix models, across 210 species, sourced from the COMPADRE Plant Matrix Database, to model how climate, geographic proximity and phylogeny predicted population performance. Models including only geographic proximity and phylogeny explained 5-40% of the variation in four key metrics of population performance. However, there was poor extrapolation between species and extrapolation was limited to geographic scales smaller than those at which landscape scale threats typically occur. Thus, demographic information should only be extrapolated with caution. Capturing demography at scales relevant to landscape level threats will require more geographically extensive sampling.

Characteristics of temporal changes in communities where dynamics differ between species

Communities with different phenotypic variation among species can have identical species abundance distributions, although their temporal dynamics may be very different. By using stochastic species abundance models, both the lognormal and beta prime abundance distributions can be obtained with either homogeneous or heterogeneous dynamics among species. Assuming that anthropogenic activity disturbs the communities such that species' carrying capacities are decreasing deterministically, the structure of the communities are studied using simulations. In order to construct homogeneous communities with reasonable variation in abundance, the parameter values describing the dynamics of the species can be unrealistic in terms of long return times to equilibrium. Species in heterogeneous communities can have stronger density regulation, while maintaining the same variation in abundance, by assuming heterogeneity in one of the dynamical parameters. The heterogeneity generates variation in carrying capacity among species, while reducing the temporal stochasticity. If carrying capacity decreases, changes in community structure occur at a much slower rate for the homogeneous compared to the heterogeneous communities. Even over short time periods, the difference in response to deterministic changes in carrying capacity between homogeneous and heterogeneous community models can be substantial, making the heterogeneous model a recommended starting point for community analysis.

Experimental separation of genetic and demographic factors on extinction risk in wild populations

When populations reach small size, an extinction risk vortex may arise from genetic (inbreeding depression, genetic drift) and ecological (demographic stochasticity, Allee effects, environmental fluctuation) processes. The relative contribution of these processes to extinction in wild populations is unknown, but important for conserving endangered species. In experimental field populations of a harvested kelp (Postelsia palmaeformis), in which we independently varied initial genetic diversity (completely inbred, control, outbred) and population size, ecological processes dominated the risk of extinction, whereas the contribution of genetic diversity was slight. Our results match theoretical predictions that demographic processes will generally doom small populations to extinction before genetic effects act strongly, prioritize detailed ecological analysis over descriptions of genetic structure in assessing conservation of at-risk species, and highlight the need for field experiments manipulating both demographics and genetic structure on long-term extinction risk.

Can life history predict the effect of demographic stochasticity on extinction risk?

Demographic stochasticity is important in determining extinction risks of small populations, but it is largely unknown how its effect depends on the life histories of species. We modeled effects of demographic stochasticity on extinction risk in a broad range of generalized life histories, using matrix models and branching processes. Extinction risks of life histories varied greatly in their sensitivity to demographic stochasticity. Comparing life histories, extinction risk generally increased with increasing fecundity and decreased with higher ages of maturation. Effects of adult survival depended on age of maturation. At lower ages of maturation, extinction risk peaked at intermediate levels of adult survival, but it increased along with adult survival at higher ages of maturation. These differences were largely explained by differences in sensitivities of population growth to perturbations of life-history traits. Juvenile survival rate contributed most to total demographic variance in the majority of life histories. Our general results confirmed earlier findings, suggesting that empirical patterns can be explained by a relatively simple model. Thus, basic life-history information can be used to assign life-history-specific sensitivity to demographic stochasticity. This is of great value when assessing the vulnerability of small populations.

Demographic history, genetic structure and gene flow in a steppe-associated raptor species

Background

Environmental preferences and past climatic changes may determine the length of time during which a species range has contracted or expanded from refugia, thereby influencing levels of genetic diversification. Connectivity among populations of steppe-associated taxa might have been maximal during the long glacial periods, and interrupted only during the shorter interglacial phases, potentially resulting in low levels of genetic differentiation among populations. We investigated this hypothesis by exploring patterns of genetic diversity, past demography and gene flow in a raptor species characteristic of steppes, the Montagu's harrier (Circus pygargus), using mitochondrial DNA data from 13 breeding populations and two wintering populations.

Results

Consistent with our hypothesis, Montagu's harrier has relatively low genetic variation at the mitochondrial DNA. The highest levels of genetic diversity were found in coastal Spain, France and central Asia. These areas, which were open landscapes during the Holocene, may have acted as refugia when most of the European continent was covered by forests. We found significant genetic differentiation between two population groups, at the SW and NE parts of the species' range. Two events of past population growth were detected, and occurred ca. 7500-5500 and ca. 3500-1000 years BP in the SW and NE part of the range respectively. These events were likely associated with vegetation shifts caused by climate and human-induced changes during the Holocene.

Conclusions

The relative genetic homogeneity observed across populations of this steppe raptor may be explained by a short isolation time, relatively recent population expansions and a relaxed philopatry. We highlight the importance of considering the consequence of isolation and colonization processes in order to better understand the evolutionary history of steppe species.

High variability in patterns of population decline: the importance of local processes in species extinctions

A fundamental goal of conservation science is to improve conservation practice. Understanding species extinction patterns has been a central approach towards this objective. However, uncertainty remains about the extent to which species-level patterns reliably indicate population phenomena at the scale of local sites, where conservation ultimately takes place. Here, we explore the importance of both species- and site-specific components of variation in local population declines following habitat disturbance, and test a suite of hypotheses about their intrinsic and extrinsic drivers. To achieve these goals, we analyse an unusually detailed global dataset for species responses to habitat disturbance, namely primates in timber extraction systems, using cross-classified generalized linear mixed models. We show that while there are consistent differences in the severity of local population decline between species, an equal amount of variation also occurs between sites. The tests of our hypotheses further indicate that a combination of biological traits at the species level, and environmental factors at the site level, can help to explain these patterns. Specifically, primate populations show a more marked decline when the species is characterized by slow reproduction, high ecological requirements, low ecological flexibility and small body size; and when the local environment has had less time for recovery following disturbance. Our results demonstrate that individual species show a highly heterogeneous, yet explicable, pattern of decline. The increased recognition and elucidation of local-scale processes in species declines will improve our ability to conserve biodiversity in the future.

Long-term survival despite low genetic diversity in the critically endangered Madagascar fish-eagle

The critically endangered Madagascar fish-eagle (Haliaeetus vociferoides) is considered to be one of the rarest birds of prey globally and at significant risk of extinction. In the most recent census, only 222 adult individuals were recorded with an estimated total breeding population of no more than 100-120 pairs. Here, levels of Madagascar fish-eagle population genetic diversity based on 47 microsatellite loci were compared with its sister species, the African fish-eagle (Haliaeetus vocifer), and 16 of these loci were also characterized in the white-tailed eagle (Haliaeetus albicilla) and the bald eagle (Haliaeetus leucocephalus). Overall, extremely low genetic diversity was observed in the Madagascar fish-eagle compared to other surveyed Haliaeetus species. Determining whether this low diversity is the result of a recent bottleneck or a more historic event has important implications for their conservation. Using a Bayesian coalescent-based method, we show that Madagascar fish-eagles have maintained a small effective population size for hundreds to thousands of years and that its low level of neutral genetic diversity is not the result of a recent bottleneck. Therefore, efforts made to prevent Madagascar fish-eagle extinction should place high priority on maintenance of habitat requirements and reducing direct and indirect human persecution. Given the current rate of deforestation in Madagascar, we further recommend that the population be expanded to occupy a larger geographical distribution. This will help the population persist when exposed to stochastic factors (e.g. climate and disease) that may threaten a species consisting of only 200 adult individuals while inhabiting a rapidly changing landscape.

Living in a ghetto within a local population: an empirical example of an ideal despotic distribution

Merging patterns and processes about the way individuals should be distributed in a habitat is a key issue in the framework of spatial ecology. Here the despotic distribution of individuals in two distinct and neighboring patches within a local population of a long-lived colonial bird, the Yellow-legged Gull (Larus michahellis), was assessed. There was no density dependence for suitable habitat at the study population, but behavioral data suggested that birds from the good patch precluded birds from the bad patch from breeding in their patch. Younger breeders were almost exclusively found in the bad patch, where individuals were probably attracted by conspecific attraction from the good patch. Most breeding parameters were lower in the bad patch, resulting mainly from a higher vulnerability to environmental perturbations and a higher rate of intraspecific nest predation. Attempts at breeding dispersal between the two patches were only observed from the bad to the good patch. Strikingly, adult survival and large-scale dispersal, two life history parameters that are very conservative in long-lived organisms, were also more affected at the bad patch when catastrophic predation occurred. The study was consistent with an ideal despotic distribution at small spatial scale, and suggests that individual behavior can influence local population dynamics.

Extinction times in experimental populations

Predicting population extinctions is a key element of quantitative conservation biology and population ecology. Although stochastic population theories have long been used to obtain theoretical distributions of population extinction times, model-based predictions have rarely been tested. Here I report results from a quantitative analysis of extinction time in 281 experimental populations of water fleas (Daphnia magna) in variable environments. To my knowledge, this is the first quantitative estimate of the shape of the distribution of population extinction times based on extinction data for any species. The finding that the distribution of population extinction times was extraordinarily peaked is consistent with theoretical predictions for density-independent populations, but inconsistent with predictions for density-dependent populations. The tail of the extinction time distribution was not exponential. These results imply that our current theories of extinction are inadequate. Future work should focus on how demographic stochasticity scales with population size and effects of nonrandom variable environments on population growth and decline.

Genetic similarity, breeding distribution range and sexual selection

Large populations with extensive breeding distributions may sustain greater genetic variability, thus producing a positive relationship between genetic variation and population size. Levels of genetic variability may also be affected by sexual selection, which could either reduce levels because a small fraction of males contribute to the following generation, or augment them by generating genetic variability through elevated rates of mutations. We investigated to what extent genetic variability, as estimated from band sharing coefficients for minisatellite markers, could be predicted by breeding distribution range, population size and intensity of sexual selection (as reflected by degree of polygyny and extra-pair paternity). Across a sample of 62 species of birds in the Western Palearctic, we found extensive interspecific variation in band sharing coefficients. High band sharing coefficients (implying low local genetic variability among individuals) were associated with restricted breeding distributions, a conclusion confirmed by analysis of statistically independent linear contrasts. Independently, species with large population sizes had small band sharing coefficients. Furthermore, bird species with a high richness of subspecies for their breeding distribution range had higher band sharing coefficients. Finally, bird species with high levels of polygyny and extra-pair paternity had small band sharing coefficients. These results suggest that breeding distribution range, population size and intensity of sexual selection are important predictors of levels of genetic variability in extant populations.

Climate and spatio-temporal variation in the population dynamics of a long distance migrant, the white stork

1. A central question in ecology is to separate the relative contribution of density dependence and stochastic influences to annual fluctuations in population size. Here we estimate the deterministic and stochastic components of the dynamics of different European populations of white stork Ciconia ciconia. We then examined whether annual changes in population size was related to the climate during the breeding period (the 'tap hypothesis' sensu Saether, Sutherland & Engen (2004, Advances in Ecological Research, 35, 185 209) or during the nonbreeding period, especially in the winter areas in Africa (the 'tube hypothesis'). 2. A general characteristic of the population dynamics of this long-distance migrant is small environmental stochasticity and strong density regulation around the carrying capacity with short return times to equilibrium. 3. Annual changes in the size of the eastern European populations were correlated by rainfall in the wintering areas in Africa as well as local weather in the breeding areas just before arrival and in the later part of the breeding season and regional climate variation (North Atlantic Oscillation). This indicates that weather influences the population fluctuations of white storks through losses of sexually mature individuals as well as through an effect on the number of individuals that manages to establish themselves in the breeding population. Thus, both the tap and tube hypothesis explains climate influences on white stork population dynamics. 4. The spatial scale of environmental noise after accounting for the local dynamics was 67 km, suggesting that the strong density dependence reduces the synchronizing effects of climate variation on the population dynamics of white stork. 5. Several climate variables reduced the synchrony of the residual variation in population size after accounting for density dependence and demographic stochasticity, indicating that these climate variables had a synchronizing effect on the population fluctuations. In contrast, other climatic variables acted as desynchronizing agents. 6. Our results illustrate that evaluating the effects of common environmental variables on the spatio-temporal variation in population dynamics require estimates and modelling of their influence on the local dynamics.

Demographic characteristics of extinction in a small, insular population of house sparrows in northern Norway

In conservation ecology there is an urgent need for indicators that can be used to predict the risk of extinction of populations. Identifying extinction-prone populations has been difficult because few data sets on the demographic characteristics of the final stage to extinction are available and because of problems in separating out stochastic effects from changes in the expected dynamics. We documented the demographic changes that occurred during the period prior to extinction of a small island population of House Sparrows (Passer domesticus) after the end of permanent human settlement. A mark-recapture analysis revealed that this decline to extinction was mainly due to increased mortality after closure of the last farm that resulted in a negative long-term-specific growth rate. No change occurred in either the structural composition (breeding sex ratio and age distribution) of the population or in female recruitment. No male, however, recruits were produced on the island after the farm closure. Based on a simple, stochastic, density-dependent model we constructed a population prediction interval (PPI) to estimate the time to extinction. The 95% PPI slightly overestimated the time to extinction with large uncertainty in predictions, especially due to the influence of demographic stochasticity and parameter drift. Our results strongly emphasize the importance of access to data on temporal variation that can be used to parameterize simple population models that allow estimation of critical parameters for credible prediction of time to extinction.

Census error and the detection of density dependence

1. Studies aiming to identify the prevalence and nature of density dependence in ecological populations have often used statistical analysis of ecological time-series of population counts. Such time-series are also being used increasingly to parameterize models that may be used in population management. 2. If time-series contain measurement errors, tests that rely on detecting a negative relationship between log population change and population size are biased and prone to spuriously detecting density dependence (Type I error). This is because the measurement error in density for a given year appears in the corresponding change in population density, with equal magnitude but opposite sign. 3. This effect introduces bias that may invalidate comparisons of ecological data with density-independent time-series. Unless census error can be accounted for, time-series may appear to show strongly density-dependent dynamics, even though the density-dependent signal may in reality be weak or absent. 4. We distinguish two forms of census error, both of which have serious consequences for detecting density dependence. 5. First, estimates of population density are based rarely on exact counts, but on samples. Hence there exists sampling error, with the level of error depending on the method employed and the number of replicates on which the population estimate is based. 6. Secondly, the group of organisms measured is often not a truly self-contained population, but part of a wider ecological population, defined in terms of location or behaviour. Consequently, the subpopulation studied may effectively be a sample of the population and spurious density dependence may be detected in the dynamics of a single subpopulation. In this case, density dependence is detected erroneously, even if numbers within the subpopulation are censused without sampling error. 7. In order to illustrate how process variation and measurement error may be distinguished we review data sets (counts of numbers of birds by single observers) for which both census error and long-term variance in population density can be estimated. 8. Tests for density dependence need to obviate the problem that measured population sizes are typically estimates rather than exact counts. It is possible that in some cases it may be possible to test for density dependence in the presence of unknown levels of census error, for example by uncovering nonlinearities in the density response. However, it seems likely that these may lack power compared with analyses that are able to explicitly include census error and we review some recently developed methods.

Supertree analyses of the roles of viviparity and habitat in the evolution of atherinomorph fishes

Using supertree phylogenetic reconstructions, we investigate how livebearing and freshwater adaptations may have shaped evolutionary patterns in the Atherinomorpha, a large clade (approximately 1500 extant species) of ray-finned fishes. Based on maximum parsimony reconstructions, livebearing appears to have evolved at least four times independently in this group, and no reversions to the ancestral state of oviparity were evident. With respect to habitat, at least five evolutionary transitions apparently occurred from freshwater to marine environments, at least two transitions in the opposite direction, and no clear ancestral state was identifiable. All viviparous clades exhibited more extant species than their oviparous sister taxa, suggesting that transitions to viviparity may be associated with cladogenetic diversification. Transitions to freshwater were usually, but not invariably associated with increased species richness, but the trend was, overall, not significant among sister clades. Additionally, we investigated whether livebearing and freshwater adaptations are currently associated with elevated risks of extinction as implied by species' presence on the 2004 IUCN Red List. Despite being correlated with decreased brood size, livebearing has not significantly increased extinction risk in the Atherinomorpha. However, freshwater species were significantly more likely than marine species to be listed as endangered.