Using occupancy models to understand the distribution of an amphibian pathogen, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis

Empirical evidence for effects of invasive American Bullfrogs on occurrence of native amphibians and emerging pathogens

Invasive species and emerging infectious diseases are two of the greatest threats to biodiversity. American Bullfrogs (Rana [Lithobates] catesbeiana), which have been introduced to many parts of the world, are often linked with declines in native amphibians via predation and the spread of emerging pathogens such as amphibian chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis [Bd]) and ranaviruses. Although many studies have investigated the potential role of bullfrogs in the decline of native amphibians, analyses that account for shared habitat affinities and imperfect detection have found limited support for clear effects. Similarly, the role of bullfrogs in shaping the patch-level distribution of pathogens is unclear. We used eDNA methods to sample 233 sites in the southwestern USA and Sonora, Mexico (2016-2018) to estimate how the presence of bullfrogs affects the occurrence of four native amphibians, Bd, and ranaviruses. Based on two-species, dominant-subordinate occupancy models fitted in a Bayesian context, federally threatened Chiricahua Leopard Frogs (Rana chiricahuensis) and Western Tiger Salamanders (Ambystoma mavortium) were eight times (32% vs. 4%) and two times (36% vs. 18%), respectively, less likely to occur at sites where bullfrogs occurred. Evidence for the negative effects of bullfrogs on Lowland Leopard Frogs (Rana yavapaiensis) and Northern Leopard Frogs (Rana pipiens) was less clear, possibly because of smaller numbers of sites where these native species still occurred and because bullfrogs often occur at lower densities in streams, the primary habitat for Lowland Leopard Frogs. At the community level, Bd was most likely to occur where bullfrogs co-occurred with native amphibians, which could increase the risk to native species. Ranaviruses were estimated to occur at 33% of bullfrog-only sites, 10% of sites where bullfrogs and native amphibians co-occurred, and only 3% of sites where only native amphibians occurred. Of the 85 sites where we did not detect any of the five target amphibian species, we also did not detect Bd or ranaviruses; this suggests other hosts do not drive the distribution of these pathogens in our study area. Our results provide landscape-scale evidence that bullfrogs reduce the occurrence of native amphibians and increase the occurrence of pathogens, information that can clarify risks and aid the prioritization of conservation actions.

Bioclimatic and anthropogenic variables shape the occurrence of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis over a large latitudinal gradient

Amphibian chytridiomycosis, caused by the fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), has caused the greatest known loss of biodiversity due to an infectious disease. We used Bd infection data from quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR) assays of amphibian skin swabs collected across Chile during 2008-2018 to model Bd occurrence with the aim to determine bioclimatic and anthropogenic variables associated with Bd infection. Also, we used Bd presence/absence records to identify geographical Bd high-risk areas and compare Bd prevalence and infection loads between amphibian families, ecoregions, and host ecology. Data comprised 4155 Bd-specific qPCR assays from 162 locations across a latitudinal gradient of 3700 km (18º to 51ºS). Results showed a significant clustering of Bd associated with urban centres and anthropogenically highly disturbed ecosystems in central-south Chile. Both Bd prevalence and Bd infection loads were higher in aquatic than terrestrial amphibian species. Our model indicated positive associations of Bd prevalence with altitude, temperature, precipitation and human-modified landscapes. Also, we found that macroscale drivers, such as land use change and climate, shape the occurrence of Bd at the landscape level. Our study provides with new evidence that can improve the effectiveness of strategies to mitigate biodiversity loss due to amphibian chytridiomycosis.

Landscape epidemiology of Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans: reconciling data limitations and conservation urgency

Starting in 2010, rapid fire salamander (Salamandra salamandra) population declines in northwestern Europe heralded the emergence of Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans (Bsal), a salamander-pathogenic chytrid fungus. Bsal poses an imminent threat to global salamander diversity owing to its wide host range, high pathogenicity, and long-term persistence in ecosystems. While there is a pressing need to develop further research and conservation actions, data limitations inherent to recent pathogen emergence obscure necessary insights into Bsal disease ecology. Here, we use a hierarchical modeling framework to describe Bsal landscape epidemiology of outbreak sites in light of these methodological challenges. Using model selection and machine learning, we find that Bsal presence is associated with humid and relatively cool, stable climates. Outbreaks are generally located in areas characterized by low landscape heterogeneity and low steepness of slope. We further find an association between Bsal presence and high trail density, suggesting that human-mediated spread may increase risk for spillover between populations. We then use distribution modeling to show that favorable conditions occur in lowlands influenced by the North Sea, where increased survey effort is needed to determine how Bsal impacts local newt populations, but also in hill- and mountain ranges in northeastern France and the lower half of Germany. Finally, connectivity analyses suggest that these hill- and mountain ranges may act as stepping stones for further spread southward. Our results provide initial insight into regional environmental conditions underlying Bsal epizootics, present updated invasibility predictions for northwestern Europe, and lead us to discuss a wide variety of potential survey and research actions needed to advance future conservation and mitigation efforts.

Genomic signatures of thermal adaptation are associated with clinal shifts of life history in a broadly distributed frog

Temperature is a critical driver of ectotherm life‐history strategies, whereby a warmer environment is associated with increased growth, reduced longevity and accelerated senescence. Increasing evidence indicates that thermal adaptation may underlie such life‐history shifts in wild populations. Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and copy number variants (CNVs) can help uncover the molecular mechanisms of temperature‐driven variation in growth, longevity and senescence. However, our understanding of these mechanisms is still limited, which reduces our ability to predict the response of non‐model ectotherms to global temperature change.

In this study, we examined the potential role of thermal adaptation in clinal shifts of life‐history traits (i.e. life span, senescence rate and recruitment) in the Columbia spotted frog Rana luteiventris along a broad temperature gradient in the western United States.

We took advantage of extensive capture–recapture datasets of 20,033 marked individuals from eight populations surveyed annually for 14–18 years to examine how mean annual temperature and precipitation influenced demographic parameters (i.e. adult survival, life span, senescence rate, recruitment and population growth). After showing that temperature was the main climatic predictor influencing demography, we used RAD‐seq data (50,829 SNPs and 6,599 putative CNVs) generated for 352 individuals from 31 breeding sites to identify the genomic signatures of thermal adaptation.

Our results showed that temperature was negatively associated with annual adult survival and reproductive life span and positively associated with senescence rate. By contrast, recruitment increased with temperature, promoting the long‐term viability of most populations. These temperature‐dependent demographic changes were associated with strong genomic signatures of thermal adaptation. We identified 148 SNP candidates associated with temperature including three SNPs located within protein‐coding genes regulating resistance to cold and hypoxia, immunity and reproduction in ranids. We also identified 39 CNV candidates (including within 38 transposable elements) for which normalized read depth was associated with temperature.

Our study indicates that both SNPs and structural variants are associated with temperature and could eventually be found to play a functional role in clinal shifts in senescence rate and life‐history strategies in R. luteiventris. These results highlight the potential role of different sources of molecular variation in the response of ectotherms to environmental temperature variation in the context of global warming.

Urbanization's influence on the distribution of mange in a carnivore revealed with multistate occupancy models

Increasing urbanization and use of urban areas by synanthropic wildlife has increased human and domestic animal exposure to zoonotic diseases and exacerbated epizootics within wildlife populations. Consequently, there is a need to improve wildlife disease surveillance programs to rapidly detect outbreaks and refine inferences regarding spatiotemporal disease dynamics. Multistate occupancy models can address potential shortcomings in surveillance programs by accounting for imperfect detection and the misclassification of disease states. We used these models to explore the relationship between urbanization, slope, and the spatial distribution of sarcoptic mange in coyotes (Canis latrans) inhabiting Fort Irwin, California, USA. We deployed remote cameras across 180 sites within the desert surrounding the populated garrison and classified sites by mange presence or absence depending on whether a symptomatic or asymptomatic coyote was photographed. Coyotes selected flatter sites closer to the urban area with a high probability of use (0.845, 95% credible interval (CRI): 0.728, 0.944); site use decreased as the distance to urban areas increased (standardized [Formula: see text] = - 1.354, 95% CRI - 2.423, - 0.619). The probability of correctly classifying mange presence at a site also decreased further from the urban area and was probably related to the severity of mange infection. Severely infected coyotes, which were more readily identified as symptomatic, resided closer to the urban area and were most likely dependent on urban resources for survival; urban resources probably contributed to sustaining the disease. Multistate occupancy models represent a flexible framework for estimating the occurrence and spatial extent of observable infectious diseases, which can improve wildlife disease surveillance programs.

Identifying priority areas for the conservation of the Critically Endangered northern white-cheeked gibbon Nomascus leucogenys in northern Lao

All gibbon species are declining throughout South and South-east Asia because of habitat loss and human activities such as hunting. Lao still contains a relatively large area of forest habitat suitable for gibbons, but their status in the country remains poorly known. Here we present the first density estimate of the Critically Endangered northern white-cheeked gibbon Nomascus leucogenys in Nam Et-Phou Louey National Protected Area, northern Lao. We conducted gibbon surveys using an auditory sampling technique during May–August 2014 and May 2015, at 40 sites, covering 125.6 km2. We applied N-mixture models to analyse group counts, investigating which landscape and human disturbance covariates influenced the spatial variation of gibbon abundance across the study area. We estimated the average gibbon density to be 0.4 groups/km2. Gibbon density was higher in mixed deciduous forest (0.74 groups/km2) than in evergreen forest (0.09 groups/km2), which could be a result of long-term hunting in evergreen forest areas. Thus, future gibbon protection plans should consider not only evergreen forest as priority habitat, but also deciduous forest, which tends to receive less attention in conservation planning. We also highlight key areas containing gibbons where law enforcement patrols should be focussed, to limit threats such as poaching. Future forest management plans should aim to maximize the size and connectivity of suitable gibbon habitat, to enable exchange between subpopulations.

Amphibian chytrid prevalence on boreal toads in SE Alaska and NW British Columbia: tests of habitat, life stages, and temporal trends

Tracking and understanding variation in pathogens such as Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), the agent of amphibian chytridiomycosis which has caused population declines globally, is a priority for many land managers. However, relatively little sampling of amphibian communities has occurred at high latitudes. We used skin swabs collected during 2005-2017 from boreal toads Anaxyrus boreas (n = 248), in southeast Alaska (USA; primarily in and near Klondike Gold Rush National Historical Park [KLGO]) and northwest British Columbia (Canada) to determine how Bd prevalence varied across life stages, habitat characteristics, local species richness, and time. Across all years, Bd prevalence peaked in June and was >3 times greater for adult toads (37.5%) vs. juveniles and metamorphs (11.2%). Bd prevalence for toads in the KLGO area, where other amphibian species are rare or absent, was highest from river habitats (55.0%), followed by human-modified upland wetlands (32.3%) and natural upland wetlands (12.7%)-the same rank-order these habitats are used for toad breeding. None of the 12 Columbia spotted frogs Rana luteiventris or 2 wood frogs R. sylvatica from the study area tested Bd-positive, although all were from an area of low host density where Bd has not been detected. Prevalence of Bd on toads in the KLGO area decreased during 2005-2015. This trend from a largely single-species system may be encouraging or concerning, depending on how Bd is affecting vital rates, and emphasizes the need to understand effects of pathogens before translating disease prevalence into management actions.

Use of stochastic patch occupancy models in the California red-legged frog for Bayesian inference regarding past events and future persistence

Assessing causes of population decline is critically important to management of threatened species. Stochastic patch occupancy models (SPOMs) are popular tools for examining spatial and temporal dynamics of populations when presence-absence data in multiple habitat patches are available. We developed a Bayesian Markov chain method that extends existing SPOMs by focusing on past environmental changes that may have altered occupancy patterns prior to the beginning of data collection. Using occupancy data from 3 creeks, we applied the method to assess 2 hypothesized causes of population decline-in situ die-off and residual impact of past source population loss-in the California red-legged frog. Despite having no data for the 20-30 years between the hypothetical event leading to population decline and the first data collected, we were able to discriminate among hypotheses, finding evidence that in situ die-off increased in 2 of the creeks. Although the creeks had comparable numbers of occupied segments, owing to different extinction-colonization dynamics, our model predicted an 8-fold difference in persistence probabilities of their populations to 2030. Adding a source population led to a greater predicted persistence probability than did decreasing the in situ die-off, emphasizing that reversing the deleterious impacts of a disturbance may not be the most efficient management strategy. We expect our method will be useful for studying dynamics and evaluating management strategies of many species.

Urban environment and reservoir host species are associated with Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis infection prevalence in the common toad

Human-induced changes of the environment, including landscape alteration and habitat loss, may affect wildlife disease dynamics and have important ramifications for wildlife conservation. Amphibians are among the vertebrate taxa most threatened by anthropogenic habitat change. The emerging fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) has caused extinctions and population declines in hundreds of anuran species globally. We studied how the urban landscape is associated with the prevalence of Bd infections by sampling 655 anurans of 3 species (mainly the common toad Bufo bufo) in 42 ponds surrounded by different amounts of urban habitat (defined as towns, cities or villages). We also examined the association between Bd infections and a potential reservoir host species (the moor frog Rana arvalis). We found that 38% of the sites were positive for Bd with an infection prevalence of 4.4%. The extent of urban landscape was negatively correlated with Bd infection prevalence. However, the positive association of Bd with the presence of the possible reservoir species was substantially stronger than the urban effects. The body condition index of B. bufo was negatively associated with Bd infection. This Bd effect was stronger than the negative effect of urban landscape on body condition. Our results suggest that urban environments in Sweden have a negative impact on Bd infections, while the presence of the reservoir species has a positive impact on Bd prevalence. Our study also highlights the potential importance of Bd infection on host fitness, especially in rural landscapes.

The Chytrid Fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, is Widespread Among Cuban Amphibians

The fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) is a generalist amphibian pathogen responsible for chytridiomycosis. It was documented for the first time in Cuba in 2007, the apparent cause of the decline in one species of toad. In a recent survey, Bd was reported only for the highlands of Central Cuba. In the present study, we reexamined the geographic distribution and level of impact of Bd in Cuba by conducting an island-wide sampling in 10 localities and collecting skin swabs from 18 species and 28 environmental samples. We report detection of Bd in 60% of sampled sites and in 58% of sampled taxa. We show that Bd is associated with riparian, arboreal and terrestrial species, and it was estimated to occur in approximately 30% of the aquatic habitats we sampled. In addition, we confirmed that a dying individual of the species Eleutherodactylus casparii was severely infected with Bd. We also rise concern about the endanger toad Peltophryne longinasus and about three species of endemic riparian frogs that were not detected during our surveys. This study demonstrates that this pathogen is widespread throughout Cuba and provides relevant evidence to advance our understanding of its detection in amphibians and the aquatic environment in Cuba and about the occurrence of Bd in species with different ecologies. We provide valuable baseline information for Bd risk assessment and decision-making processes to mitigate its negative impact on Cuban amphibians.

ESTIMATING OCCURRENCE, PREVALENCE, AND DETECTION OF AMPHIBIAN PATHOGENS: INSIGHTS FROM OCCUPANCY MODELS

Understanding the distribution of pathogens across landscapes and their prevalence within host populations is a common aim of wildlife managers. Despite the need for unbiased estimates of pathogen occurrence and prevalence for planning effective management interventions, many researchers fail to account for imperfect pathogen detection. Instead raw data are often reported, which may lead to ineffective, or even detrimental, management actions. We illustrate the utility of occupancy models for generating unbiased estimates of disease parameters by 1) providing a written tutorial describing how to fit these models in Program PRESENCE and 2) presenting a case study with the pathogen ranavirus. We analyzed ranavirus detection data from a wildlife refuge (Maryland, US) using occupancy modeling, which yields unbiased estimates of pathogen occurrence and prevalence. We found ranavirus prevalence was underestimated by up to 30% if imperfect pathogen detection was ignored. The unbiased estimate of ranavirus prevalence in larval wood frog (Lithobates sylvaticus; 0.73) populations was higher than in larval spotted salamander (Ambystoma maculatum; 0.56) populations. In addition, the odds of detecting ranavirus in tail samples were 6.7 times higher than detecting ranavirus in liver samples. Therefore, tail samples presented a nonlethal sampling method for ranavirus that may be able to detect early (nonsystemic) infections.

Challenges and Opportunities Developing Mathematical Models of Shared Pathogens of Domestic and Wild Animals

Diseases that affect both wild and domestic animals can be particularly difficult to prevent, predict, mitigate, and control. Such multi-host diseases can have devastating economic impacts on domestic animal producers and can present significant challenges to wildlife populations, particularly for populations of conservation concern. Few mathematical models exist that capture the complexities of these multi-host pathogens, yet the development of such models would allow us to estimate and compare the potential effectiveness of management actions for mitigating or suppressing disease in wildlife and/or livestock host populations. We conducted a workshop in March 2014 to identify the challenges associated with developing models of pathogen transmission across the wildlife-livestock interface. The development of mathematical models of pathogen transmission at this interface is hampered by the difficulties associated with describing the host-pathogen systems, including: (1) the identity of wildlife hosts, their distributions, and movement patterns; (2) the pathogen transmission pathways between wildlife and domestic animals; (3) the effects of the disease and concomitant mitigation efforts on wild and domestic animal populations; and (4) barriers to communication between sectors. To promote the development of mathematical models of transmission at this interface, we recommend further integration of modern quantitative techniques and improvement of communication among wildlife biologists, mathematical modelers, veterinary medicine professionals, producers, and other stakeholders concerned with the consequences of pathogen transmission at this important, yet poorly understood, interface.

Effects of host species and environmental factors on the prevalence of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis in northern Europe

The fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) poses a major threat to amphibian populations. To assist efforts to address such threats, we examined differences in Bd host infection prevalence among amphibian species and its relations to both local environmental factors in breeding habitats and landscape variables measured at three scales (500, 2000 and 5000 m radii) around breeding sites in southernmost Sweden. We sampled 947 anurans of six species in 31 ponds and assessed their infection status. We then examined correlations of infection prevalence with canopy cover, pond perimeter and pH (treated as local-scale pond characteristics), and the number of ponds, area of arable land, area of mature forest, number of resident people and presence of sea within the three radii (treated as landscape variables). The Bd infection prevalence was very low, 0.5–1.0%, in two of the six anuran species (Bufo bufo and Rana temporaria), and substantially higher (13–64%) in the other four (Bombina bombina, Bufotes variabilis, Epidalea calamita, Rana arvalis). In the latter four species Bd infection prevalence was positively associated with ponds’ pH (site range: 5.3–8.1), and negatively associated with areas of mature forest and/or wetlands in the surroundings. Our results show that the infection dynamics of Bd are complex and associated with host species, local pond characteristics and several landscape variables at larger spatial scales. Knowledge of environmental factors associated with Bd infections and differences in species’ susceptibility may help to counter further spread of the disease and guide conservation action plans, especially for the most threatened species.

The Certainty of Uncertainty: Potential Sources of Bias and Imprecision in Disease Ecology Studies

Wildlife diseases have important implications for wildlife and human health, the preservation of biodiversity and the resilience of ecosystems. However, understanding disease dynamics and the impacts of pathogens in wild populations is challenging because these complex systems can rarely, if ever, be observed without error. Uncertainty in disease ecology studies is commonly defined in terms of either heterogeneity in detectability (due to variation in the probability of encountering, capturing, or detecting individuals in their natural habitat) or uncertainty in disease state assignment (due to misclassification errors or incomplete information). In reality, however, uncertainty in disease ecology studies extends beyond these components of observation error and can arise from multiple varied processes, each of which can lead to bias and a lack of precision in parameter estimates. Here, we present an inventory of the sources of potential uncertainty in studies that attempt to quantify disease-relevant parameters from wild populations (e.g., prevalence, incidence, transmission rates, force of infection, risk of infection, persistence times, and disease-induced impacts). We show that uncertainty can arise via processes pertaining to aspects of the disease system, the study design, the methods used to study the system, and the state of knowledge of the system, and that uncertainties generated via one process can propagate through to others because of interactions between the numerous biological, methodological and environmental factors at play. We show that many of these sources of uncertainty may not be immediately apparent to researchers (for example, unidentified crypticity among vectors, hosts or pathogens, a mismatch between the temporal scale of sampling and disease dynamics, demographic or social misclassification), and thus have received comparatively little consideration in the literature to date. Finally, we discuss the type of bias or imprecision introduced by these varied sources of uncertainty and briefly present appropriate sampling and analytical methods to account for, or minimise, their influence on estimates of disease-relevant parameters. This review should assist researchers and practitioners to navigate the pitfalls of uncertainty in wildlife disease ecology studies.

A Framework for Modeling Emerging Diseases to Inform Management

The rapid emergence and reemergence of zoonotic diseases requires the ability to rapidly evaluate and implement optimal management decisions. Actions to control or mitigate the effects of emerging pathogens are commonly delayed because of uncertainty in the estimates and the predicted outcomes of the control tactics. The development of models that describe the best-known information regarding the disease system at the early stages of disease emergence is an essential step for optimal decision-making. Models can predict the potential effects of the pathogen, provide guidance for assessing the likelihood of success of different proposed management actions, quantify the uncertainty surrounding the choice of the optimal decision, and highlight critical areas for immediate research. We demonstrate how to develop models that can be used as a part of a decision-making framework to determine the likelihood of success of different management actions given current knowledge.

Effects of amphibian phylogeny, climate and human impact on the occurrence of the amphibian-killing chytrid fungus

Chytridiomycosis, due to the fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), has been associated with the alarming decline and extinction crisis of amphibians worldwide. Because conservation programs are implemented locally, it is essential to understand how the complex interactions among host species, climate and human activities contribute to Bd occurrence at regional scales. Using weighted phylogenetic regressions and model selection, we investigated geographic patterns of Bd occurrence along a latitudinal gradient of 1500 km within a biodiversity hot spot in Chile (1845 individuals sampled from 253 sites and representing 24 species), and its association with climatic, socio-demographic and economic variables. Analyses show that Bd prevalence decreases with latitude although it has increased by almost 10% between 2008 and 2013, possibly reflecting an ongoing spread of Bd following the introduction of Xenopus laevis. Occurrence of Bd was higher in regions with high gross domestic product (particularly near developed centers) and with a high variability in rainfall regimes, whereas models including other bioclimatic or geographic variables, including temperature, exhibited substantially lower fit and virtually no support based on Akaike weights. In addition, Bd prevalence exhibited a strong phylogenetic signal, with five species having high numbers of infected individuals and higher prevalence than the average of 13.3% across all species. Taken together, our results highlight that Bd in Chile might still be spreading south, facilitated by a subset of species that seem to play an important epidemiological role maintaining this pathogen in the communities, in combination with climatic and human factors affecting the availability and quality of amphibian breeding sites. This information may be employed to design conservation strategies and mitigate the impacts of Bd in the biodiversity hot spot of southern Chile, and similar studies may prove useful to disentangle the role of different factors contributing to the emergence and spread of this catastrophic disease.

Monitoring for the Management of Disease Risk in Animal Translocation Programmes

Monitoring is best viewed as a component of some larger programme focused on science or conservation. The value of monitoring is determined by the extent to which it informs the parent process. Animal translocation programmes are typically designed to augment or establish viable animal populations without changing the local community in any detrimental way. Such programmes seek to minimize disease risk to local wild animals, to translocated animals, and in some cases to humans. Disease monitoring can inform translocation decisions by (1) providing information for state-dependent decisions, (2) assessing progress towards programme objectives, and (3) permitting learning in order to make better decisions in the future. Here we discuss specific decisions that can be informed by both pre-release and post-release disease monitoring programmes. We specify state variables and vital rates needed to inform these decisions. We then discuss monitoring data and analytic methods that can be used to estimate these state variables and vital rates. Our discussion is necessarily general, but hopefully provides a basis for tailoring disease monitoring approaches to specific translocation programmes.

Invasion of two tick-borne diseases across New England: harnessing human surveillance data to capture underlying ecological invasion processes

Modelling the spatial spread of vector-borne zoonotic pathogens maintained in enzootic transmission cycles remains a major challenge. The best available spatio-temporal data on pathogen spread often take the form of human disease surveillance data. By applying a classic ecological approach-occupancy modelling-to an epidemiological question of disease spread, we used surveillance data to examine the latent ecological invasion of tick-borne pathogens. Over the last half-century, previously undescribed tick-borne pathogens including the agents of Lyme disease and human babesiosis have rapidly spread across the northeast United States. Despite their epidemiological importance, the mechanisms of tick-borne pathogen invasion and drivers underlying the distinct invasion trajectories of the co-vectored pathogens remain unresolved. Our approach allowed us to estimate the unobserved ecological processes underlying pathogen spread while accounting for imperfect detection of human cases. Our model predicts that tick-borne diseases spread in a diffusion-like manner with occasional long-distance dispersal and that babesiosis spread exhibits strong dependence on Lyme disease.

CITIZEN SCIENTISTS MONITOR A DEADLY FUNGUS THREATENING AMPHIBIAN COMMUNITIES IN NORTHERN COASTAL CALIFORNIA, USA

Ecoclub youth and supervising family members conducted citizen science to assess regional prevalence and distribution of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) among amphibians at Humboldt Bay National Wildlife Refuge (Refuge) and Redwood National and State Parks (Parks), Humboldt County, California, US, May 2013 through December 2014. Using quantitative real-time PCR, 26 (17%) of 155 samples were positive for Bd. Positive samples occurred in four frog and toad species: foothill yellow-legged frog ( Rana boylii ), northern red-legged frog ( Rana aurora ), Pacific chorus frog ( Pseudacris regilla ), and western toad (Anaxyrus [Bufo] boreas); no salamanders or anuran larvae were positive. Except for R. aurora , all infected anurans were first-time species reports for coastal northern California. At the Refuge, significantly fewer (6/71) postmetamorphic amphibians were positive compared to the Parks (20/69; P=0.0018). We assessed the association of being PCR-positive for Bd, season of sampling, and age of sampler (child, teen, or adult). The full model with season, species, and sampler age had the greatest support. Frogs tested in winter or spring were more likely to be positive than those tested in summer or fall; foothill yellow-legged frogs, northern red-legged frogs, and western toads were more likely to be positive than were Pacific chorus frogs; and the probability of being positive nearly doubled when a child (≤12 yr old) collected the sample compared to a teen or adult. Our results support other chytrid studies that found amphibians are more susceptible to Bd when temperatures are cool and that species differ in their susceptibility. The Ecoclub's findings provide new information important to conservation of northern California's coastal amphibians and demonstrate the value of involving children in citizen science.

Persistence at distributional edges: Columbia spotted frog habitat in the arid Great Basin, USA

A common challenge in the conservation of broadly distributed, yet imperiled species is understanding which factors facilitate persistence at distributional edges, locations where populations are often vulnerable to extirpation due to changes in climate, land use, or distributions of other species. For Columbia spotted frogs (Rana luteiventris) in the Great Basin (USA), a genetically distinct population segment of conservation concern, we approached this problem by examining (1) landscape-scale habitat availability and distribution, (2) water body-scale habitat associations, and (3) resource management-identified threats to persistence. We found that areas with perennial aquatic habitat and suitable climate are extremely limited in the southern portion of the species’ range. Within these suitable areas, native and non-native predators (trout and American bullfrogs [Lithobates catesbeianus]) are widespread and may further limit habitat availability in upper- and lower-elevation areas, respectively. At the water body scale, spotted frog occupancy was associated with deeper sites containing abundant emergent vegetation and nontrout fish species. Streams with American beaver (Castor canadensis) frequently had these structural characteristics and were significantly more likely to be occupied than ponds, lakes, streams without beaver, or streams with inactive beaver ponds, highlighting the importance of active manipulation of stream environments by beaver. Native and non-native trout reduced the likelihood of spotted frog occupancy, especially where emergent vegetation cover was sparse. Intensive livestock grazing, low aquatic connectivity, and ephemeral hydroperiods were also negatively associated with spotted frog occupancy. We conclude that persistence of this species at the arid end of its range has been largely facilitated by habitat stability (i.e., permanent hydroperiod), connectivity, predator-free refugia, and a commensalistic interaction with an ecosystem engineer. Beaver-induced changes to habitat quality, stability, and connectivity may increase spotted frog population resistance and resilience to seasonal drought, grazing, non-native predators, and climate change, factors which threaten local or regional persistence.

Occupancy modeling for improved accuracy and understanding of pathogen prevalence and dynamics

Most pathogen detection tests are imperfect, with a sensitivity < 100%, thereby resulting in the potential for a false negative, where a pathogen is present but not detected. False negatives in a sample inflate the number of non-detections, negatively biasing estimates of pathogen prevalence. Histological examination of tissues as a diagnostic test can be advantageous as multiple pathogens can be examined and providing important information on associated pathological changes to the host. However, it is usually less sensitive than molecular or microbiological tests for specific pathogens. Our study objectives were to 1) develop a hierarchical occupancy model to examine pathogen prevalence in spring Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha and their distribution among host tissues 2) use the model to estimate pathogen-specific test sensitivities and infection rates, and 3) illustrate the effect of using replicate within host sampling on sample sizes required to detect a pathogen. We examined histological sections of replicate tissue samples from spring Chinook salmon O. tshawytscha collected after spawning for common pathogens seen in this population: Apophallus/echinostome metacercariae, Parvicapsula minibicornis, Nanophyetus salmincola/ metacercariae, and Renibacterium salmoninarum. A hierarchical occupancy model was developed to estimate pathogen and tissue-specific test sensitivities and unbiased estimation of host- and organ-level infection rates. Model estimated sensitivities and host- and organ-level infections rates varied among pathogens and model estimated infection rate was higher than prevalence unadjusted for test sensitivity, confirming that prevalence unadjusted for test sensitivity was negatively biased. The modeling approach provided an analytical approach for using hierarchically structured pathogen detection data from lower sensitivity diagnostic tests, such as histology, to obtain unbiased pathogen prevalence estimates with associated uncertainties. Accounting for test sensitivity using within host replicate samples also required fewer individual fish to be sampled. This approach is useful for evaluating pathogen or microbe community dynamics when test sensitivity is <100%.

Using site-occupancy models to prepare for the spread of chytridiomyosis and identify factors affecting detectability of a cryptic susceptible species, the Tasmanian tree frog

Context The global reduction of amphibian biodiversity as a result of the disease chytridiomycosis (caused by the fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis; Bd) has highlighted the need to accurately detect local population declines in association with Bd presence. Although Bd has spread globally, some remote regions such as the Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area (1.40 million ha; TWWHA) in Australia, remain largely, but not entirely, disease free. The Tasmanian tree frog (Litoria burrowsae) resides primarily within TWWHA boundaries, and is believed to be susceptible to chytridiomycosis. Aims In the absence of historical abundance data, we used a single-season multi-state site-occupancy model to investigate the impact of Bd on L. burrowsae populations, on factors affecting species detection and to inform ongoing surveillance and conservation. Methods We recorded frog detection and ranked call intensity (estimation of population size) from repeated independent surveys within a season to estimate the role of covariates, such as presence of Bd and environmental variables, on species occupancy and detection probability. Key results Modelling revealed large frog populations are more likely to be present at naturally formed than human-formed ponds, strong winds negatively affect detection of populations, and time after sunset affects detection of large populations. Large frog populations were more likely to be Bd-negative; however, models including Bd presence were not well supported, in part a result of the small number of Bd-positive sites recorded. Conclusions and Implications The utility of site-occupancy modelling in understanding the impact of disease on populations is little known, but has the potential to improve the accuracy and efficiency of many conservation programs.

Correlates of virulence in a frog-killing fungal pathogen: evidence from a California amphibian decline

The fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) has caused declines and extinctions in amphibians worldwide, and there is increasing evidence that some strains of this pathogen are more virulent than others. While a number of putative virulence factors have been identified, few studies link these factors to specific epizootic events. We documented a dramatic decline in juvenile frogs in a Bd-infected population of Cascades frogs (Rana cascadae) in the mountains of northern California and used a laboratory experiment to show that Bd isolated in the midst of this decline induced higher mortality than Bd isolated from a more stable population of the same species of frog. This highly virulent Bd isolate was more toxic to immune cells and attained higher density in liquid culture than comparable isolates. Genomic analyses revealed that this isolate is nested within the global panzootic lineage and exhibited unusual genomic patterns, including increased copy numbers of many chromosomal segments. This study integrates data from multiple sources to suggest specific phenotypic and genomic characteristics of the pathogen that may be linked to disease-related declines.

Environmental determinants of recent endemism of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis infections in amphibian assemblages in the absence of disease outbreaks

The inconsistent distribution of large-scale infection mediated die-offs and the subsequent population declines of several animal species, urges us to understand how, when, and why species are affected by disease. It is often unclear when or under what conditions a pathogen constitutes a threat to a host. Often, variation of environmental conditions plays a role. Globally Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) causes amphibian declines; however, host responses are inconsistent and this fungus appears equally capable of reaching a state of endemism and subsequent co-existence with native amphibian assemblages. We sought to identify environmental and temporal factors that facilitate host-pathogen coexistence in northern Europe. To do this, we used molecular diagnostics to examine archived and wild amphibians for infection and general linear mixed models to explore relationships between environmental variables and prevalence of infection in 5 well-sampled amphibian species. We first detected infection in archived animals collected in 1999, and infection was ubiquitous, but rare, throughout the study period (2008-2010). Prevalence of infection exhibited significant annual fluctuations. Despite extremely rare cases of lethal chytridiomycosis in A. obstetricans, Bd prevalence was uncorrelated with this species' population growth. Our results suggest context dependent and species-specific host susceptibility. Thus, we believe recent endemism of Bd coincides with environmentally driven Bd prevalence fluctuations that preclude the build-up of Bd infection beyond the critical threshold for large-scale mortality and host population crashes.

Heterogeneous occupancy and density estimates of the pathogenic fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis in waters of North America

Biodiversity losses are occurring worldwide due to a combination of stressors. For example, by one estimate, 40% of amphibian species are vulnerable to extinction, and disease is one threat to amphibian populations. The emerging infectious disease chytridiomycosis, caused by the aquatic fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), is a contributor to amphibian declines worldwide. Bd research has focused on the dynamics of the pathogen in its amphibian hosts, with little emphasis on investigating the dynamics of free-living Bd. Therefore, we investigated patterns of Bd occupancy and density in amphibian habitats using occupancy models, powerful tools for estimating site occupancy and detection probability. Occupancy models have been used to investigate diseases where the focus was on pathogen occurrence in the host. We applied occupancy models to investigate free-living Bd in North American surface waters to determine Bd seasonality, relationships between Bd site occupancy and habitat attributes, and probability of detection from water samples as a function of the number of samples, sample volume, and water quality. We also report on the temporal patterns of Bd density from a 4-year case study of a Bd-positive wetland. We provide evidence that Bd occurs in the environment year-round. Bd exhibited temporal and spatial heterogeneity in density, but did not exhibit seasonality in occupancy. Bd was detected in all months, typically at less than 100 zoospores L(-1). The highest density observed was ∼3 million zoospores L(-1). We detected Bd in 47% of sites sampled, but estimated that Bd occupied 61% of sites, highlighting the importance of accounting for imperfect detection. When Bd was present, there was a 95% chance of detecting it with four samples of 600 ml of water or five samples of 60 mL. Our findings provide important baseline information to advance the study of Bd disease ecology, and advance our understanding of amphibian exposure to free-living Bd in aquatic habitats over time.

Investigating differences across host species and scales to explain the distribution of the amphibian pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis

Many pathogens infect more than one host species, and clarifying how these different hosts contribute to pathogen dynamics can facilitate the management of pathogens and can lend insight into the functioning of pathogens in ecosystems. In this study, we investigated a suite of native and non-native amphibian hosts of the pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) across multiple scales to identify potential mechanisms that may drive infection patterns in the Colorado study system. Specifically, we aimed to determine if: 1) amphibian populations vary in Bd infection across the landscape, 2) amphibian community composition predicts infection (e.g., does the presence or abundance of any particular species influence infection in others?), 3) amphibian species vary in their ability to produce infectious zoospores in a laboratory infection, 4) heterogeneity in host ability observed in the laboratory scales to predict patterns of Bd prevalence in the landscape. We found that non-native North American bullfrogs (Lithobates catesbeianus) are widespread and have the highest prevalence of Bd infection relative to the other native species in the landscape. Additionally, infection in some native species appears to be related to the density of sympatric L. catesbeianus populations. At the smaller host scale, we found that L. catesbeianus produces more of the infective zoospore stage relative to some native species, but that this zoospore output does not scale to predict infection in sympatric wild populations of native species. Rather, landscape level infection relates most strongly to density of hosts at a wetland as well as abiotic factors. While non-native L. catesbeianus have high levels of Bd infection in the Colorado Front Range system, we also identified Bd infection in a number of native amphibian populations allopatric with L. catesbeianus, suggesting that multiple host species are important contributors to the dynamics of the Bd pathogen in this landscape.

Linking manipulative experiments to field data to test the dilution effect

The dilution effect, the hypothesis that biodiversity reduces disease risk, has received support in many systems. However, few dilution effect studies have linked mechanistic experiments to field patterns to establish both causality and ecological relevance. We conducted a series of laboratory experiments and tested the dilution effect hypothesis in an amphibian-Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) system and tested for consistency between our laboratory experiments and field patterns of amphibian species richness, host identity and Bd prevalence. In our laboratory experiments, we show that tadpoles can filter feed Bd zoospores and that the degree of suspension feeding was positively associated with their dilution potential. The obligate suspension feeder, Gastrophryne carolinensis, generally diluted the risk of chytridiomycosis for tadpoles of Bufo terrestris and Hyla cinerea, whereas tadpoles of B. terrestris (an obligate benthos feeder) generally amplified infections for the other species. In addition, G. carolinensis reduced Bd abundance on H. cinerea more so in the presence than absence of B. terrestris and B. terrestris amplified Bd abundance on H. cinerea more so in the absence than presence of G. carolinensis. Also, when ignoring species identity, species richness was a significant negative predictor of Bd abundance. In our analysis of field data, the presence of Bufo spp. and Gastrophryne spp. were significant positive and negative predictors of Bd prevalence, respectively, even after controlling for climate, vegetation, anthropogenic factors (human footprint), species richness and sampling effort. These patterns of dilution and amplification supported our laboratory findings, demonstrating that the results are likely ecologically relevant. The results from our laboratory and field data support the dilution effect hypothesis and also suggest that dilution and amplification are predictable based on host traits. Our study is among the first to link manipulative experiments, in which a potential dilution mechanism is supported, with analyses of field data on species richness, host identity, spatial autocorrelation and disease prevalence.

Confronting inconsistencies in the amphibian-chytridiomycosis system: implications for disease management

Chytridiomycosis, caused by the pathogenic fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), is one of the largest threats to wildlife and is putatively linked to the extirpation of numerous amphibians. Despite over a decade of research on Bd, conflicting results from a number of studies make it difficult to forecast where future epizootics will occur and how to manage this pathogen effectively. Here, we emphasize how resolving these conflicts will advance Bd management and amphibian conservation efforts. We synthesize current knowledge on whether Bd is novel or endemic, whether amphibians exhibit acquired resistance to Bd, the importance of host resistance versus tolerance to Bd, and how biotic (e.g. species richness) and abiotic factors (e.g. climate change) affect Bd abundance. Advances in our knowledge of amphibian-chytrid interactions might inform the management of fungal pathogens in general, which are becoming more common and problematic globally.

Using occupancy models to investigate the prevalence of ectoparasitic vectors on hosts: An example with fleas on prairie dogs

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A new field method was developed to study ectoparasite prevalence on hosts.

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We describe the approach using a study of fleas on prairie dogs.

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Data were analyzed with occupancy models to account for imperfect detection.

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There was a 99.3% probability of detecting a flea on a flea-occupied host.

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Flea occupancy varied among months, sites, sampling plots, and hosts.

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The field method can be used in the future to study ectoparasite communities.

Ectoparasites are often difficult to detect in the field. We developed a method that can be used with occupancy models to estimate the prevalence of ectoparasites on hosts, and to investigate factors that influence rates of ectoparasite occupancy while accounting for imperfect detection. We describe the approach using a study of fleas (Siphonaptera) on black-tailed prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus). During each primary occasion (monthly trapping events), we combed a prairie dog three consecutive times to detect fleas (15 s/combing). We used robust design occupancy modeling to evaluate hypotheses for factors that might correlate with the occurrence of fleas on prairie dogs, and factors that might influence the rate at which prairie dogs are colonized by fleas. Our combing method was highly effective; dislodged fleas fell into a tub of water and could not escape, and there was an estimated 99.3% probability of detecting a flea on an occupied host when using three combings. While overall detection was high, the probability of detection was always <1.00 during each primary combing occasion, highlighting the importance of considering imperfect detection. The combing method (removal of fleas) caused a decline in detection during primary occasions, and we accounted for that decline to avoid inflated estimates of occupancy. Regarding prairie dogs, flea occupancy was heightened in old/natural colonies of prairie dogs, and on hosts that were in poor condition. Occupancy was initially low in plots with high densities of prairie dogs, but, as the study progressed, the rate of flea colonization increased in plots with high densities of prairie dogs in particular. Our methodology can be used to improve studies of ectoparasites, especially when the probability of detection is low. Moreover, the method can be modified to investigate the co-occurrence of ectoparasite species, and community level factors such as species richness and interspecific interactions.

Spatial assessment of amphibian chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis) in South Africa confirms endemic and widespread infection

Chytridiomycosis has been identified as a major cause of global amphibian declines. Despite widespread evidence of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis infection in South African frogs, sampling for this disease has not focused on threatened species, or whether this pathogen poses a disease risk to these species. This study assessed the occurrence of Bd-infection in South African Red List species. In addition, all known records of infection from South Africa were used to model the ecological niche of Bd to provide a better understanding of spatial patterns and associated disease risk. Presence and prevalence of Bd was determined through quantitative real-time PCR of 360 skin swab samples from 17 threatened species from 38 sites across the country. Average prevalence was 14.8% for threatened species, with pathogen load varying considerably between species. MaxEnt was used to model the predicted distribution of Bd based on 683 positive records for South Africa. The resultant probability threshold map indicated that Bd is largely restricted to the wet eastern and coastal regions of South Africa. A lack of observed adverse impacts on wild threatened populations supports the endemic pathogen hypothesis for southern Africa. However, all threatened species occur within the limits of the predicted distribution for Bd, exposing them to potential Bd-associated risk factors. Predicting pathogen distribution patterns and potential impact is increasingly important for prioritising research and guiding management decisions.

Trends in amphibian occupancy in the United States

Though a third of amphibian species worldwide are thought to be imperiled, existing assessments simply categorize extinction risk, providing little information on the rate of population losses. We conducted the first analysis of the rate of change in the probability that amphibians occupy ponds and other comparable habitat features across the United States. We found that overall occupancy by amphibians declined 3.7% annually from 2002 to 2011. Species that are Red-listed by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) declined an average of 11.6% annually. All subsets of data examined had a declining trend including species in the IUCN Least Concern category. This analysis suggests that amphibian declines may be more widespread and severe than previously realized.

Climate, vegetation, introduced hosts and trade shape a global wildlife pandemic

Global factors, such as climate change, international trade and introductions of exotic species are often elicited as contributors to the unprecedented rate of disease emergence, but few studies have partitioned these factors for global pandemics. Although contemporary correlative species distribution models (SDMs) can be useful for predicting the spatial patterns of emerging diseases, they focus mainly on the fundamental niche (FN) predictors (i.e. abiotic climate and habitat factors), neglecting dispersal and propagule pressure predictors (PP, number of non-native individuals released into a region). Using a validated, predictive and global SDM, we show that both FN and PP accounted for significant, unique variation to the distribution of the chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), a pathogen implicated in the declines and extinctions of over 200 amphibian species worldwide. Bd was associated positively with vegetation, total trade and introduced amphibian hosts, nonlinearly with annual temperature range and non-significantly with amphibian leg trade or amphibian species richness. These findings provide a rare example where both FN and PP factors are predictive of a global pandemic. Our model should help guide management of this deadly pathogen and the development of other globally predictive models for species invasions and pathogen emergence influenced by FN and PP factors.

West Africa - a safe haven for frogs? A sub-continental assessment of the chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis)

A putative driver of global amphibian decline is the panzootic chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). While Bd has been documented across continental Africa, its distribution in West Africa remains ambiguous. We tested 793 West African amphibians (one caecilian and 61 anuran species) for the presence of Bd. The samples originated from seven West African countries - Bénin, Burkina Faso, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Guinea, Liberia, Sierra Leone - and were collected from a variety of habitats, ranging from lowland rainforests to montane forests, montane grasslands to humid and dry lowland savannahs. The species investigated comprised various life-history strategies, but we focused particularly on aquatic and riparian species. We used diagnostic PCR to screen 656 specimen swabs and histology to analyse 137 specimen toe tips. All samples tested negative for Bd, including a widespread habitat generalist Hoplobatrachus occipitalis which is intensively traded on the West African food market and thus could be a potential dispersal agent for Bd. Continental fine-grained (30 arc seconds) environmental niche models suggest that Bd should have a broad distribution across West Africa that includes most of the regions and habitats that we surveyed. The surprising apparent absence of Bd in West Africa indicates that the Dahomey Gap may have acted as a natural barrier. Herein we highlight the importance of this Bd-free region of the African continent - especially for the long-term conservation of several threatened species depending on fast flowing forest streams (Conraua alleni ("Vulnerable") and Petropedetes natator ("Near Threatened")) as well as the "Critically Endangered" viviparous toad endemic to the montane grasslands of Mount Nimba (Nimbaphrynoides occidentalis).

Tropical amphibian populations experience higher disease risk in natural habitats

Habitat loss and disease are main drivers of global amphibian declines, yet the interaction between them remains largely unexplored. Here we show that paradoxically, habitat loss is negatively associated with occurrence, prevalence, and infection intensity of the chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) in amphibian populations in the tropics. At a large spatial scale, increased habitat loss predicted lower disease risk in amphibian populations across Costa Rica and eastern Australia, even after jointly considering the effect of potential biotic and abiotic correlates. Lower host-species richness and suboptimal microclimates for Bd in disturbed habitats are potential mechanisms underlying this pattern. Furthermore, we found that anthropogenic deforestation practices biased to lowlands and natural vegetation remaining in inaccessible highlands explain increased Bd occurrence at higher elevations. At a smaller spatial scale, holding constant elevation, latitude, and macroclimate, we also found a negative relationship between habitat loss, and both Bd prevalence and infection intensity in frog populations in two landscapes of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. Our results indicate that amphibians will be disproportionately affected by emerging diseases in pristine environments, and that, paradoxically, disturbed habitats may act as shelters from disease, but only for the very few species that can tolerate deforestation. Thus, tropical amphibian faunas are threatened both by destruction of natural habitats as well as increased disease in pristine forests. To curb further extinctions and develop effective mitigation and restoration programs we must look to interactions between habitat loss and disease, the two main factors at the root of global amphibian declines.