Precipitation legacies in desert grassland primary production occur through previous-year tiller density

Direct and Legacy Effects of Varying Cool-Season Precipitation Totals on Ecosystem Carbon Flux in a Semi-Arid Mixed Grassland

In the semi-arid grasslands of the southwest United States, annual precipitation is divided between warm-season (July-September) convective precipitation and cool-season (December-March) frontal storms. While evidence suggests shifts in precipitation seasonal distribution, there is a poor understanding of the ecosystem carbon flux responses to cool-season precipitation and the potential legacy effects on subsequent warm-season carbon fluxes. Results from a two-year experiment with three cool-season precipitation treatments (dry, received 5th percentile cool-season total precipitation; normal, 50th; wet, 95th) and constant warm-season precipitation illustrate the direct and legacy effects on carbon fluxes, but in opposing ways. In wet cool-season plots, gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (ER) were 103% and 127% higher than in normal cool-season plots. In dry cool-season plots, GPP and ER were 47% and 85% lower compared to normal cool-season plots. Unexpectedly, we found a positive legacy effect of the dry cool-season treatment on warm-season carbon flux, resulting in a significant increase in both GPP and ER in the subsequent warm season, compared to normal cool-season plots. Our results reveal positive legacy effects of cool-season drought on warm-season carbon fluxes and highlight the importance of the relatively under-studied cool-growing season and its direct/indirect impact on the ecosystem carbon budget.

Physiological Responses of C4 Perennial Bioenergy Grasses to Climate Change: Causes, Consequences, and Constraints

C4 perennial bioenergy grasses are an economically and ecologically important group whose responses to climate change will be important to the future bioeconomy. These grasses are highly productive and frequently possess large geographic ranges and broad environmental tolerances, which may contribute to the evolution of ecotypes that differ in physiological acclimation capacity and the evolution of distinct functional strategies. C4 perennial bioenergy grasses are predicted to thrive under climate change-C4 photosynthesis likely evolved to enhance photosynthetic efficiency under stressful conditions of low [CO2], high temperature, and drought-although few studies have examined how these species will respond to combined stresses or to extremes of temperature and precipitation. Important targets for C4 perennial bioenergy production in a changing world, such as sustainability and resilience, can benefit from combining knowledge of C4 physiology with recent advances in crop improvement, especially genomic selection.

Abrupt transitions in a southwest U.S. desert grassland related to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation

Prediction of abrupt ecosystem transitions resulting from climatic change will be an essential element of adaptation strategies in the coming decades. In the arid southwest United States, the collapse and recovery of long-lived perennial grasses have important effects on ecosystem services, but the causes of these variations have been poorly understood. Here we use a quality-controlled vegetation monitoring dataset initiated in 1915 to show that grass cover dynamics during the 20th century were closely correlated to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index. The relationship out-performed models correlating grasses to yearly precipitation and drought indices, suggesting that ecosystem transitions attributed only to local disturbances were instead influenced by climate teleconnections. Shifts in PDO phase over time were associated with the persistent loss of core grass species and recovery of transient species, so recovery of grasses in aggregate concealed significant changes in species composition. However, the relationship between PDO and grass cover broke down after 1995; grass cover is consistently lower than PDO would predict. The decoupling of grass cover from the PDO suggests that a threshold had been crossed in which warming or land degradation overwhelmed the ability of any grass species to recover during favorable periods. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Precipitation legacies amplify ecosystem nitrogen losses from nitric oxide emissions in a Pinyon-Juniper dryland

Climate change is increasing the variability of precipitation, altering the frequency of soil drying-wetting events and the distribution of seasonal precipitation. These changes in precipitation can alter nitrogen (N) cycling and stimulate nitric oxide (NO) emissions (an air pollutant at high concentrations), which may vary according to legacies of past precipitation and represent a pathway for ecosystem N loss. To identify whether precipitation legacies affect NO emissions, we excluded or added precipitation during the winter growing season in a Pinyon-Juniper dryland and measured in situ NO emissions following experimental wetting. We found that the legacy of both excluding and adding winter precipitation increased NO emissions early in the following summer; cumulative NO emissions from the winter precipitation exclusion plots (2750 ± 972 μg N-NO m^-2 ) and winter water addition plots (2449 ± 408 μg N-NO m^-2 ) were higher than control plots (1506 ± 397 μg N-NO m^-2 ). The increase in NO emissions with previous precipitation exclusion was associated with inorganic N accumulation, while the increase in NO emissions with previous water addition was associated with an upward trend in microbial biomass. Precipitation legacies can accelerate soil NO emissions and may amplify ecosystem N loss in response to more variable precipitation.

Functional thresholds alter the relationship of plant resistance and recovery to drought

The ecological consequences of future droughts are difficult to predict due to a limited understanding of the nonlinear responses of plants to increasing drought intensity, which can change abruptly when critical thresholds of drought intensity are crossed. Drought responses are composed of resistance and postdrought recovery. Although it is well established that higher drought intensity increases the impact and, thus, reduces plant resistance, less is known about how drought intensity affects recovery and how resistance and recovery are related. In this study, we tested the hypothesis that resistance, recovery, and their relationship change abruptly upon crossing critical thresholds of drought intensity. We exposed mesocosms of two monospecific stands of the common grassland species Dactylis glomerata and Plantago lanceolata to a large gradient of drought intensity and quantified the resistance and recovery of multiple measures of plant productivity, including gross-primary productivity, vegetative height, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, and aboveground biomass production. Drought intensity had nonlinear and contrasting effects on plant productivity during drought and recovery, which differed between the two species. Increasing drought intensity decreased the resistance of plant productivity and caused rapid compensatory growth during postdrought recovery, the degree of which was highly dependent on drought intensity. Across multiple response parameters two thresholds of drought intensity emerged, upon which we observed abrupt changes in plant resistance and recovery, as well as their relationship. We conclude that across gradients of drought intensity resistance and recovery are tightly coupled and that both the magnitude and the direction of drought effects on resistance and recovery can change abruptly upon specific thresholds of stress intensity. These findings highlight the urgent need to account for nonlinear responses of resistance and recovery to drought intensity as critical drivers of productivity in a changing climate.

Soil moisture drives the spatiotemporal patterns of asymmetry in vegetation productivity responses across China

Increasingly drastic global change is expected to cause hydroclimatic changes, which will influence vegetation productivity and pose a threat to the terrestrial carbon sink. Asymmetry represents an imbalance between vegetation growth and loss of growth during dry and wet periods, respectively. However, the mechanisms of asymmetric plant responses to hydrological changes remain poorly understood. Here, we examined the spatiotemporal patterns of asymmetric responses of vegetation productivity across terrestrial ecosystems in China. We analyzed several observational and satellite-based datasets of plant productivity and several reanalyzed datasets of hydroclimatic variables from 2001 to 2020, and used a random forest model to assess the importance of hydroclimatic variables for these responses. Our results showed that the productivity of >50 % of China's vegetated areas showed a more positive asymmetry (2.3 ± 9.4 %) over the study period, which were distributed broadly in northwest China (mainly grasslands and sparse vegetation ecosystems). Negative asymmetries were most common in forest ecosystems in northeast China. We demonstrated that one-third of vegetated areas tended to exhibit significant changes in asymmetry during 2001-2020. The trend towards stronger positive asymmetry (0.95 % yr^-1) was higher than that towards stronger negative asymmetry (-0.55 % yr^-1), which is beneficial for the carbon sink. We further showed that in China, soil moisture was a more important driver of spatiotemporal changes in asymmetric productivity than precipitation. We identified thresholds of surface soil moisture (20-30 %, volume water content) and root-zone soil moisture (200-350 mm, equivalent water height) that were associated with changes in asymmetry. Our findings highlight the necessity of considering the dynamic responses of vegetation to hydrological factors in order to fully understand the physiological growth processes of plants and avoid the possible loss of productivity due to future climate change.

Legacies of precipitation influence primary production in Panicum virgatum

Precipitation is a key driver of primary production worldwide, but primary production does not always track year-to-year variation in precipitation linearly. Instead, plant responses to changes in precipitation may exhibit time lags, or legacies of past precipitation. Legacies can be driven by multiple mechanisms, including persistent changes in plant physiological and morphological traits and changes to the physical environment, such as plant access to soil water. We used three precipitation manipulation experiments in central Texas, USA to evaluate the magnitude, duration, and potential mechanisms driving precipitation legacies on aboveground primary production of the perennial C₄ grass, Panicum virgatum. Specifically, we performed a rainout shelter study, where eight genotypes grew under different precipitation regimes; a transplant study, where plants that had previously grown in a rainout shelter under different precipitation regimes were moved to a common environment; and a mesocosm study, where the effect of swapping precipitation regime was examined with a single genotype. Across these experiments, plants previously grown under wet conditions generally performed better than expected when exposed to drought. Panicum virgatum exhibited stronger productivity legacies of past wet years on current-year responses to drought than of past dry years on current-year responses to wet conditions. Additionally, previous year tiller counts, a proxy for meristem availability, were important in determining legacy effects on aboveground production. As climate changes and precipitation extremes-both dry and wet-become more common, these results suggest that populations of P. virgatum may become less resilient.

Positive legacies of severe droughts in the Inner Mongolia grassland

Global change-induced extreme droughts are increasing in grasslands worldwide, and drought legacies may greatly affect the responses of grassland ecosystems to these changes. However, it remains poorly understood whether and how severe droughts have a positive legacy effect on grassland productivity. By combining a 4-year precipitation manipulation experiment with a 40-year observational study in a semiarid grassland, we showed that extreme droughts could create strong positive legacies on community productivity and that such legacies could last for multiple years. The mechanism behind this was the coupled effect of the drought-induced increase in annuals and the favorable precipitation pattern that facilitated the flourishing of annuals in subsequent years. This study provides experimental and observational evidence for positive drought legacies and reveals their underlying mechanisms. Our findings suggest that positive drought legacies should be incorporated into Earth system models to better predict the impact of extreme droughts on grassland ecosystems.

Antecedent climatic conditions spanning several years influence multiple land-surface phenology events in semi-arid environments

Ecological processes are complex, often exhibiting non-linear, interactive, or hierarchical relationships. Furthermore, models identifying drivers of phenology are constrained by uncertainty regarding predictors, interactions across scales, and legacy impacts of prior climate conditions. Nonetheless, measuring and modeling ecosystem processes such as phenology remains critical for management of ecological systems and the social systems they support. We used random forest models to assess which combination of climate, location, edaphic, vegetation composition, and disturbance variables best predict several phenological responses in three dominant land cover types in the U.S. Northwestern Great Plains (NWP). We derived phenological measures from the 25-year series of AVHRR satellite data and characterized climatic predictors (i.e., multiple moisture and/or temperature based variables) over seasonal and annual timeframes within the current year and up to 4 years prior. We found that antecedent conditions, from seasons to years before the current, were strongly associated with phenological measures, apparently mediating the responses of communities to current-year conditions. For example, at least one measure of antecedent-moisture availability [precipitation or vapor pressure deficit (VPD)] over multiple years was a key predictor of all productivity measures. Variables including longer-term lags or prior year sums, such as multi-year-cumulative moisture conditions of maximum VPD, were top predictors for start of season. Productivity measures were also associated with contextual variables such as soil characteristics and vegetation composition. Phenology is a key process that profoundly affects organism-environment relationships, spatio-temporal patterns in ecosystem structure and function, and other ecosystem dynamics. Phenology, however, is complex, and is mediated by lagged effects, interactions, and a diversity of potential drivers; nonetheless, the incorporation of antecedent conditions and contextual variables can improve models of phenology.

Drought legacies and ecosystem responses to subsequent drought

Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and severity of droughts. These events, which can cause significant perturbations of terrestrial ecosystems and potentially long-term impacts on ecosystem structure and functioning after the drought has subsided are often called 'drought legacies'. While the immediate effects of drought on ecosystems have been comparatively well characterized, our broader understanding of drought legacies is just emerging. Drought legacies can relate to all aspects of ecosystem structure and functioning, involving changes at the species and the community scale as well as alterations of soil properties. This has consequences for ecosystem responses to subsequent drought. Here, we synthesize current knowledge on drought legacies and the underlying mechanisms. We highlight the relevance of legacy duration to different ecosystem processes using examples of carbon cycling and community composition. We present hypotheses characterizing how intrinsic (i.e. biotic and abiotic properties and processes) and extrinsic (i.e. drought timing, severity, and frequency) factors could alter resilience trajectories under scenarios of recurrent drought events. We propose ways for improving our understanding of drought legacies and their implications for subsequent drought events, needed to assess the longer-term consequences of droughts on ecosystem structure and functioning.

Precipitation versus temperature as phenology controls in drylands

Cycles of plant growth, termed phenology, are tightly linked to environmental controls. The length of time spent growing, bounded by the start and end of season, is an important determinant of the global carbon, water, and energy balance. Much focus has been given to global warming and consequences for shifts in growing season length in temperate regions. In conjunction with warming temperatures, altered precipitation regimes are another facet of climate change that have potentially larger consequences than temperature in dryland phenology globally. We experimentally manipulated incoming precipitation in a semiarid grassland for over a decade and recorded plant phenology at the daily scale for seven years. We found precipitation to have a strong relationship with the timing of grass greenup and senescence but temperature had only a modest effect size on grass greenup. Pre-season drought strongly resulted in delayed grass greenup dates and shorter growing season lengths. Spring and summer drought corresponded with earlier grass senescence whereas higher precipitation accumulation over these seasons corresponded with delayed grass senescence. However, extremely wet conditions diluted this effect and caused a plateaued response. Deep-rooted woody shrubs showed few effects of variable precipitation or temperature on phenology and displayed consistent annual phenological timing compared to grasses. While rising temperatures have already elicited phenological consequences and extended growing season length for mid and high-latitude ecosystems, precipitation change will be the major driver of phenological change in drylands that cover 40% of land surface with consequences for the global carbon, water, and energy balance.

Seedling responses to soil moisture amount versus pulse frequency in a successfully encroaching semi-arid shrub

Rainfall timing, frequency, and quantity is rapidly changing in dryland regions, altering dryland plant communities. Understanding dryland plant responses to future rainfall scenarios is crucial for implementing proactive management strategies, particularly in light of land cover changes concurrent with climate change. One such change is woody plant encroachment, an increasing abundance of woody plants in areas formerly dominated by grasslands or savannas. Continued woody plant encroachment will depend, in part, on seedling capacity to establish and thrive under future climate conditions. Seedling performance is primarily impacted by soil moisture conditions governed by precipitation amount (quantity) and frequency. We hypothesized that (H1) seedling performance would be enhanced by both greater soil moisture and pulse frequency, such that seedlings with similar mean soil moisture would perform best under high pulse frequency. Alternatively, (H2) mean soil moisture would have greater influence than pulse frequency, such that a given pulse frequency would have little influence on seedling performance. The hypotheses were tested with Prosopis velutina, a shrub native to the United States that has encroached throughout its range and is invasive in other continents. Seedlings were grown in a greenhouse under two soil moisture treatments, each which was maintained by two pulse frequency treatments. Contrary to H1, mean soil moisture had greater impact than pulse frequency on seedling growth, photosynthetic gas exchange, leaf chemistry, and biomass allocation. These results indicate that P. velutina seedlings may be more responsive to rainfall amount than frequency, at least within the conditions seedlings experienced in this experimental manipulation.

Woody-plant encroachment: Precipitation, herbivory, and grass-competition interact to affect shrub recruitment

Woody-plant encroachment is a global phenomenon that has been affecting the southwestern United States since the late 1800s. Drought, overgrazing, herbivory, and competition between grasses and shrub seedlings have been hypothesized as the main drivers of shrub establishment. However, there is limited knowledge about the interactions among these drivers. Using a rainfall manipulation system and various herbivore exclosures, we tested hypotheses about how precipitation (PPT), competition between grasses and shrub seedlings, and predation affect the germination and first-year survival of mesquite (Prosopis glandulosa), a shrub that has encroached in Southern Great Plains and Chihuahuan Desert grasslands. We found that mesquite germination and survival (1) increased with increasing PPT, then saturated at about the mean growing season PPT level, (2) that competition between grasses and shrub seedlings had no effect on either germination or survival, and (3) that herbivory by small mammals decreased seedling establishment and survival, while ant granivory showed no effect. In addition to its direct positive effect on survival, PPT had an indirect negative effect via increasing small mammal activity. Current models predict a decrease in PPT in the southwestern United States with increased frequency of extreme events. The non-linear nature of PPT effects on Mesquite recruitment suggests asymmetric responses, wherein drought has a relatively greater negative effect than the positive effect of wet years. Indirect effects of PPT, through its effects on small mammal abundance, highlight the importance of accounting for interactions between biotic and abiotic drivers of shrub encroachment. This study provides quantitative basis for developing tools that can inform effective shrub management strategies in grasslands and savannas.

Climate legacies determine grassland responses to future rainfall regimes

Climate variability and periodic droughts have complex effects on carbon (C) fluxes, with uncertain implications for ecosystem C balance under a changing climate. Responses to climate change can be modulated by persistent effects of climate history on plant communities, soil microbial activity, and nutrient cycling (i.e., legacies). To assess how legacies of past precipitation regimes influence tallgrass prairie C cycling under new precipitation regimes, we modified a long-term irrigation experiment that simulated a wetter climate for >25 years. We reversed irrigated and control (ambient precipitation) treatments in some plots and imposed an experimental drought in plots with a history of irrigation or ambient precipitation to assess how climate legacies affect aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP), soil respiration, and selected soil C pools. Legacy effects of elevated precipitation (irrigation) included higher C fluxes and altered labile soil C pools, and in some cases altered sensitivity to new climate treatments. Indeed, decades of irrigation reduced the sensitivity of both ANPP and soil respiration to drought compared with controls. Positive legacy effects of irrigation on ANPP persisted for at least 3 years following treatment reversal, were apparent in both wet and dry years, and were associated with altered plant functional composition. In contrast, legacy effects on soil respiration were comparatively short-lived and did not manifest under natural or experimentally-imposed "wet years," suggesting that legacy effects on CO₂ efflux are contingent on current conditions. Although total soil C remained similar across treatments, long-term irrigation increased labile soil C and the sensitivity of microbial biomass C to drought. Importantly, the magnitude of legacy effects for all response variables varied with topography, suggesting that landscape can modulate the strength and direction of climate legacies. Our results demonstrate the role of climate history as an important determinant of terrestrial C cycling responses to future climate changes.

Driving Climatic Factors at Critical Plant Developmental Stages for Qinghai–Tibet Plateau Alpine Grassland Productivity

Determining the driving climatic factors at critical periods and potential legacy effects is crucial for grassland productivity predictions on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP). However, studies with limited and ex situ ground samples from highly heterogeneous alpine meadows brought great uncertainties. This study determined the key climatic factors at critical plant developmental stages and the impact of previous plant growth status for interannual aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) variations in different QTP grassland types. We hypothesize that the impact of climatic factors on grassland productivity varies in different periods and different vegetation types, while its legacy effects are not great. Pixel-based partial least squares regression was used to associate interannual ANPP with precipitation and air temperature at different developmental stages and prior-year ANPP from 2000 to 2019 using remote sensing techniques. Results indicated different findings from previous studies. Precipitation at the reproductive stage (July–August) was the most prominent controlling factor for ANPP which was also significantly affected by precipitation and temperature at the withering (September–October) and dormant stage (November–February), respectively. The influence of precipitation was more significant in alpine meadows than in alpine steppes, while the differentiated responses to climatic factors were attributed to differences in water consumption at different developmental stages induced by leaf area changes, bud sprouting, growth, and protection from frost damage. The prior-year ANPP showed a non-significant impact on ANPP of current year, except for alpine steppes, and this impact was much less than that of current-year climatic factors, which may be attributed to the reduced annual ANPP variations related to the inter-annual carbon circulation of alpine perennial herbaceous plants and diverse root/shoot ratios in different vegetation types. These findings can assist in improving the interannual ANPP predictions on the QTP under global climate change.

Divergent responses of primary production to increasing precipitation variability in global drylands

Interannual variability in precipitation has increased globally as climate warming intensifies. The increased variability impacts both terrestrial plant production and carbon (C) sequestration. However, mechanisms driving these changes are largely unknown. Here, we examined mechanisms underlying the response of aboveground net primary production (ANPP) to interannual precipitation variability in global drylands with mean annual precipitation (MAP) <500 mm year^-1 , using a combined approach of data synthesis and process-based modeling. We found a hump-shaped response of ANPP to precipitation variability along the MAP gradient. The response was positive when MAP < ~300 mm year^-1 and negative when MAP was higher than this threshold, with a positive peak at 140 mm year^-1 . Transpiration and subsoil water content mirrored the response of ANPP to precipitation variability; evaporation responded negatively and water loss through runoff and drainage responded positively to precipitation variability. Mean annual temperature, soil type, and plant physiological traits all altered the magnitude but not the pattern of the response of ANPP to precipitation variability along the MAP gradient. By extrapolating to global drylands (<500 mm year^-1  MAP), we estimated that ANPP would increase by 15.2 ± 6.0 Tg C year^-1 in arid and hyper-arid lands and decrease by 2.1 ± 0.5 Tg C year^-1 in dry sub-humid lands under future changes in interannual precipitation variability. Thus, increases in precipitation variability will enhance primary production in many drylands in the future.

Discriminating the biophysical signal from human-induced effects on long-term primary production dynamics. The case of Patagonia

The temporal trend of aboveground net primary production (ANPP) is frequently used to estimate the effect of humans on ecosystems. In water-limited ecosystems, like most grazing areas in the world, the effect of humans act upon ANPP in combination with environmental variations. Our main objective was to quantify long-term (1981-2012) changes of ANPP and discriminate the causes of these changes between environmental and human at a subcontinental scale, across vast areas of Patagonia. We estimated ANPP through a radiative model based on remote sensing data. Then, we evaluated the relation between ANPP and environmental interannual variations of two hierarchically related factors: El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) through the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), and precipitation. We described the effect of humans through the shape of the temporal trends of the residuals (RESTREND) of the environmental model and quantified human relative impact through the RESTREND: ANPP trend ratio. ANPP interannual variation was significantly explained by ENSO (through SOI) and precipitation in 65% of the study area. The SOI had a positive association with annual precipitation. The association between ANPP and annual precipitation was positive. RESTREND analysis was statistically significant in 92% of the area where the tested environmental model worked, representing 60% of the study area, and it was mostly negative. However, its magnitude, revealed through the RESTREND: ANPP trend ratio, was relatively mild. Our analysis revealed that most of ANPP trends were associated with climate and that even when human density is low, its incidence seems to be mainly negative.

Biotic vs abiotic controls on temporal sensitivity of primary production to precipitation across North American drylands

Dryland net primary productivity (NPP) is sensitive to temporal variation in precipitation (PPT), but the magnitude of this 'temporal sensitivity' varies spatially. Hypotheses for spatial variation in temporal sensitivity have often emphasized abiotic factors, such as moisture limitation, while overlooking biotic factors, such as vegetation structure. We tested these hypotheses using spatiotemporal models fit to remote-sensing data sets to assess how vegetation structure and climate influence temporal sensitivity across five dryland ecoregions of the western USA. Temporal sensitivity was higher in locations and ecoregions dominated by herbaceous vegetation. By contrast, much less spatial variation in temporal sensitivity was explained by mean annual PPT. In fact, ecoregion-specific models showed inconsistent associations of sensitivity and PPT; whereas sensitivity decreased with increasing mean annual PPT in most ecoregions, it increased with mean annual PPT in the most arid ecoregion, the hot deserts. The strong, positive influence of herbaceous vegetation on temporal sensitivity indicates that herbaceous-dominated drylands will be particularly sensitive to future increases in precipitation variability and that dramatic changes in cover type caused by invasions or shrub encroachment will lead to changes in dryland NPP dynamics, perhaps independent of changes in precipitation.

Plant Species Richness in Multiyear Wet and Dry Periods in the Chihuahuan Desert

In drylands, most studies of extreme precipitation events examine effects of individual years or short-term events, yet multiyear periods (>3 y) are expected to have larger impacts on ecosystem dynamics. Our goal was to take advantage of a sequence of multiple long-term (4-y) periods (dry, wet, average) that occurred naturally within a 26-y time frame to examine responses of plant species richness to extreme rainfall in grasslands and shrublands of the Chihuahuan Desert. Our hypothesis was that richness would be related to rainfall amount, and similar in periods with similar amounts of rainfall. Breakpoint analyses of water-year precipitation showed five sequential periods (1993–2018): AVG1 (mean = 22 cm/y), DRY1 (mean = 18 cm/y), WET (mean = 30 cm/y), DRY2 (mean = 18 cm/y), and AVG2 (mean = 24 cm/y). Detailed analyses revealed changes in daily and seasonal metrics of precipitation over the course of the study: the amount of nongrowing season precipitation decreased since 1993, and summer growing season precipitation increased through time with a corresponding increase in frequency of extreme rainfall events. This increase in summer rainfall could explain the general loss in C3 species after the wet period at most locations through time. Total species richness in the wet period was among the highest in the five periods, with the deepest average storm depth in the summer and the fewest long duration (>45 day) dry intervals across all seasons. For other species-ecosystem combinations, two richness patterns were observed. Compared to AVG2, AVG1 had lower water-year precipitation yet more C3 species in upland grasslands, creosotebush, and mesquite shrublands, and more C4 perennial grasses in tarbush shrublands. AVG1 also had larger amounts of rainfall and more large storms in fall and spring with higher mean depths of storm and lower mean dry-day interval compared with AVG2. While DRY1 and DRY2 had the same amount of precipitation, DRY2 had more C4 species than DRY1 in creosote bush shrublands, and DRY1 had more C3 species than DRY2 in upland grasslands. Most differences in rainfall between these periods occurred in the summer. Legacy effects were observed for C3 species in upland grasslands where no significant change in richness occurred from DRY1 to WET compared with a 41% loss of species from the WET to DRY2 period. The opposite asymmetry pattern was found for C4 subdominant species in creosote bush and mesquite shrublands, where an increase in richness occurred from DRY1 to WET followed by no change in richness from WET to DRY2. Our results show that understanding plant biodiversity of Chihuahuan Desert landscapes as precipitation continues to change will require daily and seasonal metrics of rainfall within a wet-dry period paradigm, as well as a consideration of species traits (photosynthetic pathways, lifespan, morphologies). Understanding these relationships can provide insights into predicting species-level dynamics in drylands under a changing climate.

Nitrogen addition amplifies the nonlinear drought response of grassland productivity to extended growing-season droughts

Understanding the response of grassland production and carbon exchange to intra-annual variation in precipitation and nitrogen addition is critical for sustainable grassland management and ecosystem restoration. We introduced growing-season drought treatments of different lengths (15, 30, 45 and 60 d drought) by delaying growing-season precipitation in a long-term nitrogen addition experiment in a low diversity meadow steppe in northeast China. Response variables included aboveground biomass (AGB), ecosystem net carbon exchange (NEE), and leaf net carbon assimilation rate (A). In unfertilized plots drought decreased AGB by 13.7% after a 45-d drought and 31.7% after a 60-d drought (47.6% in fertilized plots). Progressive increases in the drought response of NEE were also observed. The effects of N addition on the drought response of productivity increased as drought duration increased, and these responses were a function of changes in AGB and biomass allocation, particularly root to shoot ratio. However, no significant effects of drought occurred in fertilized or unfertilized plots in the growing season a year after the experiment, N addition did limit the recovery of AGB from severe drought during the remainder of the current growing season. Our results imply that chronic N enrichment could exacerbate the effects of growing-season drought on grassland productivity caused by altered precipitation seasonality under climate change, but that these effects do not carry over to the next growing season.

Precipitation-productivity relationships and the duration of precipitation anomalies: An underappreciated dimension of climate change

In terrestrial ecosystems, climate change forecasts of increased frequencies and magnitudes of wet and dry precipitation anomalies are expected to shift precipitation-net primary productivity (PPT-NPP) relationships from linear to nonlinear. Less understood, however, is how future changes in the duration of PPT anomalies will alter PPT-NPP relationships. A review of the literature shows strong potential for the duration of wet and dry PPT anomalies to impact NPP and to interact with the magnitude of anomalies. Within semi-arid and mesic grassland ecosystems, PPT gradient experiments indicate that short-duration (1 year) PPT anomalies are often insufficient to drive nonlinear aboveground NPP responses. But long-term studies, within desert to forest ecosystems, demonstrate how multi-year PPT anomalies may result in increasing impacts on NPP through time, and thus alter PPT-NPP relationships. We present a conceptual model detailing how NPP responses to PPT anomalies may amplify with the duration of an event, how responses may vary in xeric vs. mesic ecosystems, and how these differences are most likely due to demographic mechanisms. Experiments that can unravel the independent and interactive impacts of the magnitude and duration of wet and dry PPT anomalies are needed, with multi-site long-term PPT gradient experiments particularly well-suited for this task.

Lagged precipitation effect on plant productivity is influenced collectively by climate and edaphic factors in drylands

Lagged precipitation effect explains a large proportion of annual aboveground net primary productivity in some dryland ecosystems. Using satellite-derived plant productivity and precipitation datasets in the Northern Hemisphere drylands during 2000-2018, we identify 1111 pixels mainly located in the Tibetan Plateau, the western US, and Kazakhstan where productivities are significantly correlated with previous-year precipitation (hereafter, the lagged type). Differences in climatic and edaphic factors between the lagged and unlagged (pixels where productivities are not correlated with previous-year precipitation) types are evaluated. Permutational multivariate analysis of variance shows that the two types differ significantly regarding six climatic and edaphic factors. Compared to unlagged type, water availability, soil organic carbon, total nitrogen, field capacity, silt content and radiation are more sensitive to changes in precipitation in lagged type. Water availability is the most important factor for distinguishing the two types, followed by soil organic carbon, total nitrogen, field capacity, soil texture, and radiation. Our study suggests that the altered sensitivities of several climatic and edaphic factors to precipitation collectively affect the lagged effect of precipitation on productivity in drylands.

Assessing ecological uncertainty and simulation model sensitivity to evaluate an invasive plant species' potential impacts to the landscape

Ecological forecasts of the extent and impacts of invasive species can inform conservation management decisions. Such forecasts are hampered by ecological uncertainties associated with non-analog conditions resulting from the introduction of an invader to an ecosystem. We developed a state-and-transition simulation model tied to a fire behavior model to simulate the spread of buffelgrass (Cenchrus ciliaris) in Saguaro National Park, AZ, USA over a 30-year period. The simulation models forecast the potential extent and impact of a buffelgrass invasion including size and frequency of fire events and displacement of saguaro cacti and other native species. Using simulation models allowed us to evaluate how model uncertainties affected forecasted landscape outcomes. We compared scenarios covering a range of parameter uncertainties including model initialization (landscape susceptibility to invasion) and expert-identified ecological uncertainties (buffelgrass patch infill rates and precipitation). Our simulations showed substantial differences in the amount of buffelgrass on the landscape and the size and frequency of fires for dry years with slow patch infill scenarios compared to wet years with fast patch infill scenarios. We identified uncertainty in buffelgrass patch infill rates as a key area for research to improve forecasts. Our approach could be used to investigate novel processes in other invaded systems.

Soil precipitation legacies influence intraspecific plant-soil feedback

Feedbacks between plants and soil microbial communities can play an important role in structuring plant communities. However, little is known about how soil legacies caused by environmental disturbances such as drought and extreme precipitation events may affect plant-soil feedback or whether plant-soil feedback operates within species as it does between species. If soil legacies alter plant-soil feedback among genotypes within a plant species, then soil legacies may alter the diversity within plant populations. We conducted a fully factorial pairwise plant-soil feedback experiment to test how precipitation legacies influenced intraspecific plant-soil feedbacks among three genotypes of a dominant grass species, Panicum virgatum. Panicum virgatum experienced negative intraspecific plant-soil feedback, i.e., genotypes generally performed worse on soil from the same genotype than different genotypes. Soil precipitation legacies reversed the rank order of the strength of negative feedback among the genotypes. Feedback is often positively correlated with plant relative abundance. Therefore, our results suggest that soil precipitation legacies may alter the genotypic composition of P. virgatum populations, favoring genotypes that develop less negative feedback. Changes in intraspecific diversity will likely further affect community structure and ecosystem functioning, and may constrain the ability of populations to respond to future changes in climate.

Genetic and functional variation across regional and local scales is associated with climate in a foundational prairie grass

Global change forecasts in ecosystems require knowledge of within-species diversity, particularly of dominant species within communities. We assessed site-level diversity and capacity for adaptation in Bouteloua gracilis, the dominant species in the Central US shortgrass steppe biome. We quantified genetic diversity from 17 sites across regional scales, north to south from New Mexico to South Dakota, and local scales in northern Colorado. We also quantified phenotype and plasticity within and among sites and determined the extent to which phenotypic diversity in B. gracilis was correlated with climate. Genome sequencing indicated pronounced population structure at the regional scale, and local differences indicated that gene flow and/or dispersal may also be limited. Within a common environment, we found evidence of genetic divergence in biomass-related phenotypes, plasticity, and phenotypic variance, indicating functional divergence and different adaptive potential. Phenotypes were differentiated according to climate, chiefly median Palmer Hydrological Drought Index and other aridity metrics. Our results indicate conclusive differences in genetic variation, phenotype, and plasticity in this species and suggest a mechanism explaining variation in shortgrass steppe community responses to global change. This analysis of B. gracilis intraspecific diversity across spatial scales will improve conservation and management of the shortgrass steppe ecosystem in the future.

Legacy effects of precipitation amount and frequency on the aboveground plant biomass of a semi-arid grassland

Precipitation is known to have legacy effects on plant diversity and production of many terrestrial ecosystems. Precipitation regimes are expected to become more variable with increasing extreme precipitation events. However, how previous-year precipitation regimes affect the current-year aboveground biomass (AGB) remains largely unknown. Here we measured long-term (2004-2017) AGB in a semi-arid grassland of the Chinese Loess Plateau to evaluate the impact of previous-year precipitation amount on current-year AGB. Furthermore, to assess the response of current-year AGB to previous-year precipitation regimes, we conducted a field manipulation experiment that included three precipitation regimes during 2014-2017: (i) ambient precipitation, (ii) monthly added four 5 mm rain events, and (iii) monthly added one 20 mm event. Both the long-term (2004-2017) observations under ambient precipitation and short-term (2014-2017) measurements under manipulative treatments showed significant positive effects of previous-year precipitation on current-year AGB. Our path analysis suggested that previous-year precipitation frequency had negative effects on the current-year density and mean height of grass (Leymus secalinus) while had positive effects on forb (Artemisia capillaris). The forb had much smaller height and AGB (65% and 53% less, respectively) than the grass. Consequently, the AGB reduced in the weekly small events treatment, causing the sensitivity of AGB to precipitation to decrease. Therefore, our findings indicated that the impacts of precipitation regimes on plant community dynamics should be taken into consideration while assessing the precipitation legacy effect on ecosystem production.

Nutrient addition increases grassland sensitivity to droughts

Grasslands worldwide are expected to experience an increase in extreme events such as drought, along with simultaneous increases in mineral nutrient inputs as a result of human industrial activities. These changes are likely to interact because elevated nutrient inputs may alter plant diversity and increase the sensitivity to droughts. Dividing a system's sensitivity to drought into resistance to change during the drought and rate of recovery after the drought generates insights into different dimensions of the system's resilience in the face of drought. Here, we examine the effects of experimental nutrient fertilization and the resulting diversity loss on the resistance to and recovery from severe regional droughts. We do this at 13 North American sites spanning gradients of aridity, five annual grasslands in California, and eight perennial grasslands in the Great Plains. We measured rate of resistance as the change in annual aboveground biomass (ANPP) per unit change in growing season precipitation as conditions declined from normal to drought. We measured recovery as the change in ANPP during the postdrought period and the return to normal precipitation. Resistance and recovery did not vary across the 400-mm range of mean growing season precipitation spanned by our sites in the Great Plains. However, chronic nutrient fertilization in the Great Plains reduced drought resistance and increased drought recovery. In the California annual grasslands, arid sites had a greater recovery postdrought than mesic sites, and nutrient addition had no consistent effects on resistance or recovery. Across all study sites, we found that predrought species richness in natural grasslands was not consistently associated with rates of resistance to or recovery from the drought, in contrast to earlier findings from experimentally assembled grassland communities. Taken together, these results suggest that human-induced eutrophication may destabilize grassland primary production, but the effects of this may vary across regions and flora, especially between perennial and annual-dominated grasslands.

Indirect effects of water availability in driving and predicting productivity in the Gobi desert

Climate is the fundamental determinant of plant metabolism and net primary productivity (NPP). However, whether climate drives NPP directly or indirectly is not well understand. The Gobi desert across a precipitation gradient in the arid zone provides an ideal naturally-controlled platform for studying the precipitation-productivity relationships. We conducted 3-year experiments in four Gobi desert shrublands across an aridity gradient in Gansu Province of China to test the relationship between water availability and shrub productivity as well as the relative importance of the possible factors driving productivity (using piecewise structural equation modeling) and to explore the appropriate variables for predicting productivity (using three spatial models). The results showed that water availability indirectly affected the NPP via stand biomass, while stand biomass had a significant direct effect on NPP regardless of whether the leaf water content and stand height were considered. The model based on stand size (71.6%) and the model that contained both stand size and water availability (72.3%) explained more of the variation in the water-NPP relationships than the model based on water availability (37.3%). Our findings suggest that even in extremely water-limited areas, the effects of water availability on plant growth and the kinetics of plant metabolism could be indirect via plant size, demonstrating the importance of plant size as an indicator of shrub productivity. This study explains the mechanisms underlying the NPP driving pattern and proposes a practical NPP model for arid ecosystems.

Assessment of Risk and Resilience of Terrestrial Ecosystem Productivity under the Influence of Extreme Climatic Conditions over India

Analysing the link between terrestrial ecosystem productivity (i.e., Net Primary Productivity: NPP) and extreme climate conditions is vital in the context of increasing threats due to climate change. To reveal the impact of changing extreme conditions on NPP, a copula-based probabilistic model was developed, and the study was carried out over 25 river basins and 10 vegetation types of India. Further, the resiliency of the terrestrial ecosystems to sustain the extreme disturbances was evaluated at annual scale, monsoon, and non-monsoon seasons. The results showed, 15 out of 25 river basins were at high risks, and terrestrial ecosystems in only 5 river basins were resilient to extreme climatic conditions. Moreover, at least 50% area under 4 out of 10 vegetation cover types was found to be facing high chances of a drastic reduction in NPP, and 8 out of 10 vegetation cover types were non-resilient with the changing extreme climate conditions.

Rainfall exclusion and thinning can alter the relationships between forest functioning and drought

Increasing drought caused by the ongoing climate change, and forest management by thinning that aims at mitigating its impact, may modify the current relationships between forest functions and drought intensity and preclude our ability to forecast future ecosystem responses. We used 15 yr of data from an experimental rainfall exclusion (-27% of rainfall) combined with thinning (-30% stand basal area) to investigate differences in the drought-function relationships for each component of above-ground net primary productivity (ANPP) and stand transpiration in a Mediterranean Quercus ilex stand. Rainfall exclusion reduced stand ANPP by 10%, mainly because of lowered leaf and acorn production, whereas wood production remained unaffected. These responses were consistent with the temporal sensitivity to drought among tree organs but revealed an increased allocation to wood. Thinning increased wood and acorn production and reduced the sensitivity of standing wood biomass change to drought. Rainfall exclusion and thinning lowered the intercept of the transpiration-drought relationship as a result of the structural constraints exerted by lower leaf and sapwood area. The results suggest that historical drought-function relationships can be used to infer future drought impacts on stand ANPP but not on water fluxes. Thinning can mitigate drought effects and reduce forest sensitivity to drought.

The ecology and significance of below-ground bud banks in plants

BACKGROUND

Below-ground bud banks have experienced much recent interest due to discoveries that they (1) account for the majority of seasonal population renewal in many communities, (2) are crucial to regeneration following disturbance, and (3) have important consequences for plant population dynamics and plant and ecosystem function across a number of habitats.

SCOPE

This review presents an overview of the role of bud banks in plant population renewal, examines bud bank life history, summarizes bud bank traits and their potential ecological implications, synthesizes the response of bud banks to disturbance, and highlights gaps to guide future research. The characteristics and life history of buds, including their natality, dormancy, protection and longevity, provide a useful framework for advancing our understanding of bud banks. The fate of buds depends on their age, size, type, location, and biotic and abiotic factors that collectively regulate bud bank dynamics. A bud bank can provide a demographic storage effect stabilizing population dynamics, and also confer resistance to disturbance and invasion. Regeneration capacity following disturbance is determined by interactions among the rates of bud natality, depletion and dormancy (meristem limitation), and the resources available to support the regeneration process. The resulting response of plants and their bud banks to disturbances such as fire, herbivory and anthropogenic sources determines the community's regenerative capacity.

CONCLUSIONS

Vegetation responses to environmental change may be mediated through changes in bud bank dynamics and phenology. Environmental change that depletes the bud bank or prohibits its formation likely results in a loss of vegetation resilience and plant species diversity. Standardization of bud sampling, examination of bud banks in more ecosystems and their response to environmental variation and disturbance regimes, employment of stage-structured bud bank modelling and evaluation of the cost of bud bank construction and maintenance will benefit this expanding field of research.

Sensitivity of plant species to warming and altered precipitation dominates the community productivity in a semiarid grassland on the Loess Plateau

Global warming and changes in precipitation patterns can critically influence the structure and productivity of terrestrial ecosystems. However, the underlying mechanisms are not fully understood. We conducted two independent but complementary experiments (one with warming and precipitation manipulation (+ or - 30%) and another with selective plant removal) in a semiarid grassland on the Loess Plateau, northwestern China, to assess how warming and altered precipitation affect plant community. Our results showed that warming and altered precipitation affected community aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) through impacting soil moisture. Results of the removal experiment showed competitive relationships among dominant grasses, the dominant subshrub and nondominant species, which played a more important role than soil moisture in the response of plant community to warming and altered precipitation. Precipitation addition intensified the competition but primarily benefited the dominant subshrub. Warming and precipitation reduction enhanced water stresses but increased ANPP of the dominant subshrub and grasses, indicating that plant tolerance to drought critically meditated the community responses. These findings suggest that specie competitivity for water resources as well as tolerance to environmental stresses may dominate the responses of plant communities on the Loess Plateaus to future climate change factors.

Enhanced growth after extreme wetness compensates for post-drought carbon loss in dry forests

While many studies have reported that drought events have substantial negative legacy effects on forest growth, it remains unclear whether wetness events conversely have positive growth legacy effects. Here, we report pervasive and substantial growth enhancement after extreme wetness by examining tree radial growth at 1929 forest sites, satellite-derived vegetation greenness, and land surface model simulations. Enhanced growth after extreme wetness lasts for 1 to 5 years and compensates for 93 ± 8% of the growth deficit after extreme drought across global water-limited regions. Remarkable wetness-enhanced growths are observed in dry forests and gymnosperms, whereas the enhanced growths after extreme wetness are much smaller in wet forests and angiosperms. Limited or no enhanced growths are simulated by the land surface models after extreme wetness. These findings provide new evidence for improving climate-vegetation models to include the legacy effects of both drought and wet climate extremes.

Increased extreme wet and dry years and forest growth loss from drought legacy effect lead to a question whether wetness events can conversely compensate for this loss. Here the authors report substantial growth enhancement after extreme wetness compensating for drought-induced growth loss globally.

Semiarid ecosystem sensitivity to precipitation extremes: weak evidence for vegetation constraints

In semiarid regions, vegetation constraints on plant growth responses to precipitation (PPT) are hypothesized to place an upper limit on net primary productivity (NPP), leading to predictions of future shifts from currently defined linear to saturating NPP-PPT relationships as increases in both dry and wet PPT extremes occur. We experimentally tested this prediction by imposing a replicated gradient of growing season PPT (GSP, n = 11 levels, n = 4 replicates), ranging from the driest to wettest conditions in the 75-yr climate record, within a semiarid grassland. We focused on responses of two key ecosystem processes: aboveground NPP (ANPP) and soil respiration (R_s ). ANPP and R_s both exhibited greater relative responses to wet vs. dry GSP extremes, with a linear relationship consistently best explaining the response of both processes to GSP. However, this responsiveness to GSP peaked at moderate levels of extremity for both processes, and declined at the most extreme GSP levels, suggesting that greater sensitivity of ANPP and R_s to wet vs. dry conditions may diminish under increased magnitudes of GSP extremes. Underlying these responses was rapid plant compositional change driven by increased forb production and cover as GSP transitioned to extreme wet conditions. This compositional shift increased the magnitude of ANPP responses to wet GSP extremes, as well as the slope and variability explained in the ANPP-GSP relationship. Our findings suggest that rapid plant compositional change may act as a mediator of semiarid ecosystem responses to predicted changes in GSP extremes.

Effect of interannual precipitation variability on dryland productivity: A global synthesis

Climate-change assessments project increasing precipitation variability through increased frequency of extreme events. However, the effects of interannual precipitation variance per se on ecosystem functioning have been largely understudied. Here, we report on the effects of interannual precipitation variability on the primary production of global drylands, which include deserts, steppes, shrublands, grasslands, and prairies and cover about 40% of the terrestrial earth surface. We used a global database that has 43 datasets, which are uniformly distributed in parameter space and each has at least 10 years of data. We found (a) that at the global scale, precipitation variability has a negative effect on aboveground net primary production. (b) Expected increases in interannual precipitation variability for the year 2,100 may result in a decrease of up to 12% of the global terrestrial carbon sink. (c) The effect of precipitation interannual variability on dryland productivity changes from positive to negative along a precipitation gradient. Arid sites with mean precipitation under 300 mm/year responded positively to increases in precipitation variability, whereas sites with mean precipitation over 300 mm/year responded negatively. We propose three complementary mechanisms to explain this result: (a) concave-up and concave-down precipitation-production relationships in arid vs. humid systems, (b) shift in the distribution of water in the soil profile, and (c) altered frequency of positive and negative legacies. Our results demonstrated that enhanced precipitation variability will have direct impacts on global drylands that can potentially affect the future terrestrial carbon sink.

Differing Responses to Rainfall Suggest More Than One Functional Type of Grassland in South Africa

Grasslands, which represent around 40% of the terrestrial area, are mostly located in arid and semi-arid zones. Semiarid ecosystems in Africa have been identified as being particularly vulnerable to the impacts of increased human pressure on land, as well as enhanced climate variability. Grasslands are indeed very responsive to variations in precipitation. This study evaluates the sensitivity of the grassland ecosystem to precipitation variability in space and time, by identifying the factors controlling this response, based on monthly precipitation data from Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS) and the Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FAPAR) data from the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer-High Resolution (MISR-HR) datasets, used as proxy for productivity, at 60 grassland sites in South Africa. Our results show that MISR-HR products adequately capture the spatial and temporal variability in productivity at scales that are relevant to this study, and they are therefore a good tool to study climate change impacts on ecosystem at small spatial scales over large spatial and temporal domains. We show that combining several determinants and accounting for legacies improves our ability to understand patterns, identify areas of vulnerability, and predict the future of grassland productivity. Mean annual precipitation is a good predictor of mean grassland productivity. The grasslands with a mean annual rainfall above about 530 mm have a different functional response to those receiving less than that amount of rain, on average. On the more arid and less fertile soils, large inter-annual variability reduces productivity. Our study suggests that grasslands on the more marginal soils are the most vulnerable to climate change.