Allee effects introduced by density dependent phenology

We consider a hybrid model of an annual species with the timing of a stage transition governed by density dependent phenology. We show that the model can produce a strong Allee effect as well as overcompensation. The density dependent probability distribution that describes how population emergence is spread over time plays an important role in determining population dynamics. Our extensive numerical simulations with a density dependent gamma distribution indicate very rich population dynamics, from stable/unstable equilibria, limit cycles, to chaos.

Direct and indirect effects of climate and seed dynamics on the breeding performance of a seed predator at the distribution edge

Marginal populations usually have low densities and are considered to be particularly vulnerable to environmental stochasticity. Using data collected in nest boxes, we analyzed the breeding performance of the edible dormouse (Glis glis), an obligate hibernating rodent and a seed predator in deciduous forests, in two populations at the distribution range's edge. Despite being only 20 km apart from each other, Montseny is a large patch of mixed deciduous forests (oaks and beech), whereas Montnegre would be the harshest habitat, that is, a small, isolated patch with only oaks. First, we studied the differences in climate and tree cover change in the two populations. Second, we analyzed the direct and indirect roles of local climate conditions and seed availability on breeding performance over 10 years in each population. Finally, we explored the influence of tree cover change on the occupancy dynamics in the two populations. Our results showed contrasting responses between populations: in Montseny, asynchronous seed production between oaks and beech precluded skip breeding, and breeding performance increased with seed availability. Furthermore, dormice in Montseny may use pollen production to anticipate the amount of beech nut resources and adjust their breeding effort. Boxes showed higher occupancy and colonization and fewer extinctions in Montseny than in Montnegre, where seed availability did not drive breeding performance. Results from Montnegre suggest that skip breeding was an adaptive response to a more pulsed, harsher environment. Here, females produced a similar number of pups than at Montseny. Long-term studies dealing with population responses in marginal habitats can lead to a deeper understanding of the capacities of organisms to adapt to harsh environments. Although local adaptation is frequently documented across various taxa, studies at the distribution edge may shed light on our still limited comprehension of the underlying mechanisms responsible for its occurrence.

Climate variability hypothesis is partially supported in thermal limits of juvenile Northwest Atlantic coastal fishes

As ocean warming continues to impact marine species globally, there is a need to understand the mechanisms underlying shifts in abundance and distribution. There is growing evidence that upper and lower temperature tolerances rather than mean preferences explain range shifts, but the full thermal niche is unknown for many marine species and observational data are often ill-suited to estimate the upper and lower thermal tolerances. We quantified critical thermal maximum (CTmax ) and critical thermal minimum (CTmin ) using standard methods to quantify temperature limits and thermal ranges of 14 economically and ecologically important juvenile fish species on the US Atlantic coast. We then tested the climate variability hypothesis (CVH), which states that higher-latitude species should have a wider temperature tolerance due to higher climatic variability closer to the poles. Our findings generally support the CVH in the juvenile fishes that we evaluated. However, low-latitude species were not uniformly stenothermal. Rather, species with median occurrences across a wide range of latitudes had wide temperature tolerances, but only the tropical species we tested had more narrow ranges. These findings suggest that quantifying temperature tolerances may be used to predict which low-latitude species are most likely to shift in response to warming water and those that may be more sensitive to climate change in this region.

Ontogenetic responses of physiological fitness in Spodoptera frugiperda (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) in response to repeated cold exposure

In this era of global climate change, intrinsic rapid and evolutionary responses of invasive agricultural pests to thermal variability are of concern given the potential implications on their biogeography and dire consequences on human food security. For insects, chill coma recovery time (CCRT) and critical thermal minima (CTmin), the point at which neuromuscular coordination is lost following cold exposure, remain good indices for cold tolerance. Using laboratory-reared Spodoptera frugiperda (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae), we explored cold tolerance repeated exposure across life stages of this invasive insect pest. Specifically, we measured their CTmin and CCRT across four consecutive assays, each 24 h apart. In addition, we assessed body water content (BWC) and body lipid content (BLC) of the life stages. Our results showed that CTmin improved with repeated exposure in 5th instar larvae, virgin males and females while CCRT improved in 4th, 5th and 6th instar larvae following repeated cold exposure. In addition, the results revealed evidence of cold hardening in this invasive insect pest. However, there was no correlation between cold tolerance and BWC as well as BLC. Our results show capacity for cold hardening and population persistence of S. frugiperda in cooler environments. This suggests potential of fall armyworm (FAW) to withstand considerable harsh winter environments typical of its recently invaded geographic range in sub-Saharan Africa.

A framework to understand the role of biological time in responses to fluctuating climate drivers

Understanding biological responses to environmental fluctuations (e.g. heatwaves) is a critical goal in ecology. Biological responses (e.g. survival) are usually measured with respect to different time reference frames, i.e. at specific chronological times (e.g. at specific dates) or biological times (e.g. at reproduction). Measuring responses on the biological frame is central to understand how environmental fluctuation modifies fitness and population persistence. We use a framework, based on partial differential equations (PDEs) to explore how responses to the time scale and magnitude of fluctuations in environmental variables (= drivers) depend on the choice of reference frame. The PDEs and simulations enabled us to identify different components, responsible for the phenological and eco-physiological effects of each driver on the response. The PDEs also highlight the conditions when the choice of reference frame affects the sensitivity of the response to a driver and the type of join effect of two drivers (additive or interactive) on the response. Experiments highlighted the importance of studying how environmental fluctuations affect biological time keeping mechanisms, to develop mechanistic models. Our main result, that the effect of the environmental fluctuations on the response depends on the scale used to measure time, applies to both field and laboratory conditions. In addition, our approach, applied to experimental conditions, can helps us quantify how biological time mediates the response of organisms to environmental fluctuations.

Urban microclimate warming improves overwintering survival of evergreen bagworms

In the northernmost latitude of North America, the evergreen bagworm, Thyridopteryx ephemeraeformis (Haworth), distribution is limited by overwintering temperatures. Urban impervious surfaces such as roads, buildings and parking lots can warm microclimates and create ecological temperature gradients that have the potential to increase the winter survival of insects. To test this hypothesis, we evaluated survival of bagworms over gradients of microclimatic conditions. Bagworms live within spindle-shaped bags constructed from fragments of foliage. In late summer, adult male bagworms fly to bags containing wingless adult females. Mated neotenous females lay eggs within their pupal case. These eggs hatch into larvae during the late spring of the following year and disperse to hosts by ballooning. A total of 2255 bagworm bags were collected from 119 sites in Indiana and Illinois prior to egg hatch in the spring of 2018 and 2019. The maximum temperature during the coldest days of winter was recorded at each site. Up to 25 bagworms were removed from each host plant to assess the overwintering survival of eggs. Survivorship rose as estimates of impervious surface within a 20-m radius increased. Specifically, 50% of bagworm eggs survived at maximum daily temperatures of −19.4°C, −20°C and −20.6°C when plants were surrounded by 25.7%, 48.39% and 50.75% impervious surface, respectively. Egg mortality was not buffered by impervious surfaces at temperatures at or below −21.67°C. Our findings provide insights about how impervious surface in urban areas can provide refugia for marginally hardy insects and improve their chances of surviving the cold of winter.

Timing and magnitude of climatic extremes differentially elevate mortality but enhance recovery in a fish population

The countervailing effects of disturbances (e.g., high mortality and enhanced recovery) on population dynamics can occur through demographic processes under rapidly increasing climatic extremes. Across an extreme-event gradient, we mechanistically demonstrated how dramatic changes in streamflow have affected the population persistence of endangered salmon in monsoonal Taiwan over a three-decade period. Our modeling indicated that the dynamics of the age-structured population were attributed to demographic processes, in which extensive mortality was characterized as a function of climatic extremes and vulnerability in the young stage of fish. In the stochastic simulations, we found that the extensive mortality and high proportion of large fish resulted from extreme flooding, which caused high values of postimpact population recovery. Our empirical evidence suggests that the magnitudes and timing of disturbance can explain the population persistence when facing climatic extremes and thereby challenges the understanding of the mechanistic drivers of these countervailing phenomena under changing environmental conditions.

Species climatic niche explains post-fire regeneration of Aleppo pine (Pinus halepensis Mill.) under compounded effects of fire and drought in east Spain

Fire and drought are two major agents that shape Mediterranean ecosystems, but their interacting effects on forest resilience have not been yet fully addressed. We used Pinus halepensis to investigate how compound fire-drought regimes determine the success of post-fire regeneration. We measured the density of P.halepensis newly established individuals following fire in forty-three sites along the Spanish east coast, the wetter region of the species distribution. The climatic niche of P.halepensis was characterized by considering their populations across its Spanish distribution range. We used yearly values (1979-2013 period) of accumulated precipitation, mean temperature and the warmest quarter values of these two variables to generate the climatic space or climatic niche occupied by the species. Kernel density estimates were then applied to determine the niche centroid, which would correspond to the species' climatic optimum within its Spanish distribution range. Then, we computed the pre- and post-fire climatic deviations of each sampling site as the difference between site-specific climate conditions respect to the species niche centroid, and assessed their relationship with the success of post-fire regeneration. We found highly variable patterns of post-fire regeneration density of P.halepensis over the studied sites, ranging from 7 to 42,822 tree pines ha^-1. Generalized linear models indicated a positive relationship between fire severity and the density of P.halepensis regeneration. Positive temperature deviations - warm conditions - before fire were positively related to pine regeneration. This effect increases under higher fire severity. By contrast, warm temperatures after fire showed a negative effect on the density of pine trees. Positive precipitation deviations - wet conditions - after fire enhanced pine regeneration, while precipitation before fire did not had any significant effect. Though P.halepensis is considered a species adapted to fire and drought, the interaction between these two disturbances can alter the success of its post-fire recovery patterns limiting the species' resilience in the future.

Metabolic Responses of Pacific Crown-of-Thorns Sea Stars (Acanthaster sp.) to Acute Warming

AbstractClimate change and population irruptions of crown-of-thorns sea stars (Acanthaster sp.) are two of the most pervasive threats to coral reefs. Yet there has been little consideration regarding the synergies between ocean warming and the coral-feeding sub-adult and adult stages of this asteroid. Here we explored the thermosensitivity of the aforementioned life stages by assessing physiological responses to acute warming. Thermal sensitivity was assessed based on the maximal activity of enzymes involved in aerobic (citrate synthase) and anaerobic (lactate dehydrogenase) metabolic pathways, as well as the standard metabolic rate of sub-adult and adult sea stars. In both life stages, citrate synthase activity declined with increasing temperature from 15 °C to 40 °C, with negligible activity occurring >35 °C. On the other hand, lactate dehydrogenase activity increased with temperature from 20 °C to 45 °C, indicating a greater reliance on anaerobic metabolism in a warmer environment. The standard metabolic rate of sub-adult sea stars increased with temperature throughout the testing range (24 °C to 36 °C). Adult sea stars exhibited evidence of thermal stress, with metabolic depression occurring from 33 °C. Here, we demonstrate that crown-of-thorns sea stars are sensitive to warming but that adults, and especially sub-adults, may have some resilience to short-term marine heatwaves in the near future.

Extreme climate events limit northern range expansion of wild turkeys

For species inhabiting areas at the limit of their environmental tolerance, extreme events often drive population persistence. However, because extreme events are uncommon, their effects on population dynamics of expanding species are poorly known. We examined how extreme climate events in winter and summer affected three populations of wild turkeys occupying a natural climate gradient at the northern edge of their range. First, we examined the mechanism by which vital rates affect the population growth rate. Second, we developed a climate-dependent structured population model. Finally, by linking this population model to IPCC-class climate projections, we projected wild turkey population abundance in response to the frequency of extreme snow events by 2100 for the northernmost population. We showed that the population dynamics of the three populations is driven through different pathways expected from the theory of invading population dynamics; that those populations were mainly limited by heavy snow that decreases winter survival by restraining food access; and that a population of immigrant is projected to decline at the northern species range. This study exemplifies how extreme events affect population dynamics and range expansion of temperate species at the northern edge of the distribution.

Population level differences in overwintering survivorship of blue crabs (Callinectes sapidus): A caution on extrapolating climate sensitivities along latitudinal gradients

Winter mortality can strongly affect the population dynamics of blue crabs (Callinectes sapidus) near poleward range limits. We simulated winter in the lab to test the effects of temperature, salinity, and estuary of origin on blue crab winter mortality over three years using a broad range of crab sizes from both Great South Bay and Chesapeake Bay. We fit accelerated failure time models to our data and to data from prior blue crab winter mortality experiments, illustrating that, in a widely distributed, commercially valuable marine decapod, temperature, salinity, size, estuary of origin, and winter duration were important predictors of winter mortality. Furthermore, our results suggest that extrapolation of a Chesapeake Bay based survivorship model to crabs from New York estuaries yielded poor fits. As such, the severity and duration of winter can impact northern blue crab populations differently along latitudinal gradients. In the context of climate change, future warming could possibility confer a benefit to crab populations near the range edge that are currently limited by temperature-induced winter mortality by shifting their range edge poleward, but care must be taken in generalizing from models that are developed based on populations from one part of the range to populations near the edges, especially for species that occupy large geographical areas.

Within-patch and edge microclimates vary over a growing season and are amplified during a heatwave: Consequences for ectothermic insects

Embedded in longer term warming are extreme climatic events such as heatwaves and droughts that are increasing in frequency, duration and intensity. Changes in climate attributes such as temperature are often measured over larger spatial scales, whereas environmental conditions to which many small ectothermic arthropods are exposed are largely determined by small-scale local conditions. Exposed edges of plant patches often exhibit significant short-term (daily) variation to abiotic factors due to wind exposure and sun radiation. By contrast, within plant patches, abiotic conditions are generally much more stable and thus less variable. Over an eight-week period in the summer of 2020, including an actual heatwave, we measured small-scale (1 m²) temperature variation in patches of forbs in experimental mesocosms. We found that soil surface temperatures at the edge of the mesocosms were more variable than those within mesocosms. Drought treatment two years earlier, amplified this effect but only at the edges of the mesocosms. Within a plant patch both at the soil surface and within the canopy, the temperature was always lower than the ambient air temperature. The temperature of the soil surface at the edge of a patch may exceed the ambient air temperature when ambient air temperatures rise above 23 °C. This effect progressively increased with ambient temperature. We discuss how microscale-variation in temperature may affect small ectotherms such as insects that have limited ability to thermoregulate, in particular under conditions of extreme heat.

Tropicalization of temperate ecosystems in North America: The northward range expansion of tropical organisms in response to warming winter temperatures

Tropicalization is a term used to describe the transformation of temperate ecosystems by poleward-moving tropical organisms in response to warming temperatures. In North America, decreases in the frequency and intensity of extreme winter cold events are expected to allow the poleward range expansion of many cold-sensitive tropical organisms, sometimes at the expense of temperate organisms. Although ecologists have long noted the critical ecological role of winter cold temperature extremes in tropical-temperate transition zones, the ecological effects of extreme cold events have been understudied, and the influence of warming winter temperatures has too often been left out of climate change vulnerability assessments. Here, we examine the influence of extreme cold events on the northward range limits of a diverse group of tropical organisms, including terrestrial plants, coastal wetland plants, coastal fishes, sea turtles, terrestrial reptiles, amphibians, manatees, and insects. For these organisms, extreme cold events can lead to major physiological damage or landscape-scale mass mortality. Conversely, the absence of extreme cold events can foster population growth, range expansion, and ecological regime shifts. We discuss the effects of warming winters on species and ecosystems in tropical-temperate transition zones. In the 21st century, climate change-induced decreases in the frequency and intensity of extreme cold events are expected to facilitate the poleward range expansion of many tropical species. Our review highlights critical knowledge gaps for advancing understanding of the ecological implications of the tropicalization of temperate ecosystems in North America.

Climate change impacts on population growth across a species' range differ due to nonlinear responses of populations to climate and variation in rates of climate change

Impacts of climate change can differ substantially across species’ geographic ranges, and impacts on a given population can be difficult to predict accurately. A commonly used approximation for the impacts of climate change on the population growth rate is the product of local changes in each climate variable (which may differ among populations) and the sensitivity (the derivative of the population growth rate with respect to that climate variable), summed across climate variables. However, this approximation may not be accurate for predicting changes in population growth rate across geographic ranges, because the sensitivities to climate variables or the rate of climate change may differ among populations. In addition, while this approximation assumes a linear response of population growth rate to climate, population growth rate is typically a nonlinear function of climate variables. Here, we use climate-driven integral projection models combined with projections of future climate to predict changes in population growth rate from 2008 to 2099 for an uncommon alpine plant species, Douglasia alaskana, in a rapidly warming location, southcentral Alaska USA. We dissect the causes of among-population variation in climate change impacts, including magnitude of climate change in each population and nonlinearities in population response to climate change. We show that much of the variation in climate change impacts across D. alaskana’s range arises from nonlinearities in population response to climate. Our results highlight the critical role of nonlinear responses to climate change impacts, suggesting that current responses to increases in temperature or changes in precipitation may not continue indefinitely under continued changes in climate. Further, our results suggest the degree of nonlinearity in climate responses and the shape of responses (e.g., convex or concave) can differ substantially across populations, such that populations may differ dramatically in responses to future climate even when their current responses are quite similar.

Acidification and hypoxia interactively affect metabolism in embryos, but not larvae, of the coastal forage fish Menidia menidia

Ocean acidification is occurring in conjunction with warming and deoxygenation as a result of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Multistressor experiments are critically needed to better understand the sensitivity of marine organisms to these concurrent changes. Growth and survival responses to acidification have been documented for many marine species, but studies that explore underlying physiological mechanisms of carbon dioxide (CO2) sensitivity are less common. We investigated oxygen consumption rates as proxies for metabolic responses in embryos and newly hatched larvae of an estuarine forage fish (Atlantic silverside, Menidia menidia) to factorial combinations of CO2×temperature or CO2×oxygen. Metabolic rates of embryos and larvae significantly increased with temperature, but partial pressure of CO2 (PCO2 ) alone did not affect metabolic rates in any experiment. However, there was a significant interaction between PCO2  and partial pressure of oxygen (PO2 ) in embryos, because metabolic rates were unaffected by PO2  level at ambient PCO2 , but decreased with declining PO2  under elevated PCO2 For larvae, however, PCO2  and PO2  had no significant effect on metabolic rates. Our findings suggest high individual variability in metabolic responses to high PCO2 , perhaps owing to parental effects and time of spawning. We conclude that early life metabolism is largely resilient to elevated PCO2  in this species, but that acidification likely influences energetic responses and thus vulnerability to hypoxia.

Evolutionary impacts of winter climate change on insects

Overwintering is a serious challenge for insects, and winters are rapidly changing as climate shifts. The capacity for phenotypic plasticity and evolutionary adaptation will determine which species profit or suffer from these changes. Here we discuss current knowledge on the potential and evidence for evolution in winter-relevant traits among insect species and populations. We conclude that the best evidence for evolutionary shifts in response to changing winters remain those related to changes in phenology, but all evidence points to cold hardiness as also having the potential to evolve in response to climate change. Predicting future population sizes and ranges relies on understanding to what extent evolution in winter-related traits is possible, and remains a serious challenge.

Overwintering survivorship and growth of young-of-the-year black sea bass Centropristis striata

Overwintering conditions have long been known to affect fish survival and year-class strength as well as determine the poleward range limit of many temperate fishes. Despite this known importance, mechanisms controlling overwintering mortality are poorly understood and the tolerance of marine fishes to the combined effects of winter temperature, salinity, and size is rarely quantified. In recent years, higher abundances of the temperate Serranid, black sea bass Centropristis striata, have been observed at latitudes further north than their traditional range suggesting that warming water temperatures, particularly during winter, may be facilitating the establishment of a population at more northern latitudes. To examine overwintering survival of C. striata, the combined effects of temperature, salinity and body mass were quantified in laboratory experiments. We identified 6°C as the lower incipient lethal temperature for C. striata, below which fish cease feeding, lose weight rapidly and die within 32 days. A short cold exposure experiment indicated that temperatures below 5°C resulted in mortality events that continued even as the temperature increased slowly to 10°C, indicating that even short cold snaps can impact survival and recruitment in this species. Importantly, fish in lower salinity lived significantly longer than fish at higher salinity at both 3°C and 5°C, suggesting that osmoregulatory stress plays a role in overwintering mortality in this species. Size was not a critical factor in determining overwintering survival of young-of-the-year (YOY) C. striata. Overwintering survival of YOY C. striata can be effectively predicted as a function of temperature and salinity and their interaction with an accelerated failure model to project future range limits. Identifying temperature thresholds may be a tractable way to incorporate environmental factors into population models and stock assessment models in fishes.

Behavioral constraints on local adaptation and counter-gradient variation: Implications for climate change

Resource allocation to growth, reproduction, and body maintenance varies within species along latitudinal gradients. Two hypotheses explaining this variation are local adaptation and counter-gradient variation. The local adaptation hypothesis proposes that populations are adapted to local environmental conditions and are therefore less adapted to environmental conditions at other locations. The counter-gradient variation hypothesis proposes that one population out performs others across an environmental gradient because its source location has greater selective pressure than other locations. Our study had two goals. First, we tested the local adaptation and counter-gradient variation hypotheses by measuring effects of environmental temperature on phenotypic expression of reproductive traits in the burying beetle, Nicrophorus orbicollis Say, from three populations along a latitudinal gradient in a common garden experimental design. Second, we compared patterns of variation to evaluate whether traits covary or whether local adaptation of traits precludes adaptive responses by others. Across a latitudinal range, N. orbicollis exhibits variation in initiating reproduction and brood sizes. Consistent with local adaptation: (a) beetles were less likely to initiate breeding at extreme temperatures, especially when that temperature represents their source range; (b) once beetles initiate reproduction, source populations produce relatively larger broods at temperatures consistent with their local environment. Consistent with counter-gradient variation, lower latitude populations were more successful at producing offspring at lower temperatures. We found no evidence for adaptive variation in other adult or offspring performance traits. This suite of traits does not appear to coevolve along the latitudinal gradient. Rather, response to selection to breed within a narrow temperature range may preclude selection on other traits. Our study highlights that N. orbicollis uses temperature as an environmental cue to determine whether to initiate reproduction, providing insight into how behavior is modified to avoid costly reproductive attempts. Furthermore, our results suggest a temperature constraint that shapes reproductive behavior.

Multivariate Analysis of Water Quality and Benthic Macrophyte Communities in Florida Bay, USA Reveals Hurricane Effects and Susceptibility to Seagrass Die-Off

Seagrass communities, dominated by Thalassia testudinum, form the principal benthic ecosystem within Florida Bay, Florida USA. The bay has had several large-scale seagrass die-offs in recent decades associated with drought and hypersaline conditions. In addition, three category-5 hurricanes passed in close proximity to the bay during the fall of 2005. This study investigated temporal and spatial trends in macrophyte abundance and water quality from 2006 to 2013 at 15 permanent transect sites, which were co-located with long-term water quality stations. Relationships, by year and by transect location (basin), between antecedent water quality (mean, minimum and maximum for a 6-month period) and benthic macrophyte communities were examined using multivariate analyses. Total phosphorus, salinity, pH, turbidity, dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN), DIN to phosphate ratio (DIN: PO4-3 ), chlorophyll a, and dissolved oxygen correlated with temporal and spatial variations in the macrophyte communities. Temporal analysis (MDS and LINKTREE) indicated that the fall 2005 hurricanes affected both water quality and macrophyte communities for approximately a 2-year period. Spatial analysis revealed that five basins, which subsequently exhibited a major seagrass die-off during summer 2015, significantly differed from the other ten basins in macrophyte community structure and water quality more than 2 years before this die-off event. High total phosphorus, high pH, low DIN, and low DIN: PO4-3 , in combination with deep sediments and high seagrass cover were characteristic of sites that subsequently exhibited severe die-off. Our results indicate basins with more mixed seagrass communities and higher macroalgae abundance are less susceptible to die-off, which is consistent with the management goals of promoting more heterogeneous benthic macrophyte communities.

The many roles of fats in overwintering insects

Temperate, polar and alpine insects generally do not feed over winter and hence must manage their energy stores to fuel their metabolism over winter and to meet the energetic demands of development and reproduction in the spring. In this Review, we give an overview of the accumulation, use and conservation of fat reserves in overwintering insects and discuss the ways insects modify fats to facilitate their selective consumption or conservation. Many insects are in diapause and have depressed metabolic rates over winter; together with low temperatures, this means that lipid stores are likely to be consumed predominantly in the autumn and spring, when temperatures are higher but insects remain dormant. Although there is ample evidence for a shift towards less-saturated lipids in overwintering insects, switches between the use of carbohydrate and lipid stores during winter have not been well-explored. Insects usually accumulate cryoprotectants over winter, and the resulting increase in haemolymph viscosity is likely to reduce lipid transport. For freeze-tolerant insects (which withstand internal ice), we speculate that impaired oxygen delivery limits lipid oxidation when frozen. Acetylated triacylglycerols remain liquid at low temperatures and interact with water molecules, providing intriguing possibilities for a role in cryoprotection. Similarly, antifreeze glycolipids may play an important role in structuring water and ice during overwintering. We also touch on the uncertain role of non-esterified fatty acids in insect overwintering. In conclusion, lipids are an important component of insect overwintering energetics, but there remain many uncertainties ripe for detailed exploration.

Predicting the abundance of forest types across the eastern United States through inverse modelling of tree demography

Global environmental change is expected to induce widespread changes in the geographic distribution and biomass of forest communities. Impacts have been projected from both empirical (statistical) and mechanistic (physiology-based) modelling approaches, but there remains an important gap in accurately predicting abundance across species' ranges from spatial variation in individual-level demographic processes. We address this issue by using a cohort-based forest dynamics model (CAIN) to predict spatial variation in the abundance of six plant functional types (PFTs) across the eastern United States. The model simulates tree-level growth, mortality, and recruitment, which we parameterized from data on both individual-level demographic rates and population-level abundance using Bayesian inverse modelling. Across a set of 1° grid cells, we calibrated local growth, mortality, and recruitment rates for each PFT to obtain a close match between predicted age-specific PFT basal area in forest stands and that observed in 46,603 Forest Inventory and Analysis plots. The resulting models produced a strong fit to PFT basal area across the region (R²  = 0.66-0.87), captured successional changes in PFT composition with stand age, and predicted the overall stem diameter distribution well. The mortality rates needed to accurately predict basal area were consistently higher than observed mortality, possibly because sampling effects led to biased individual-level mortality estimates across spatially heterogeneous plots. Growth and recruitment rates did not show consistent directional changes from observed values. Relative basal area was most strongly influenced by recruitment processes, but the effects of growth and mortality tended to increase as stands matured. Our study illustrates how both top-down (population-level) and bottom-up (individual-level) data can be combined to predict variation in abundance from size, environmental, and competitive effects on tree demography. Evidence for how demographic processes influence variation in abundance, as provided by our model, can help in understanding how these forests may respond to future environmental change.

Evolution caused by extreme events

Extreme events can be a major driver of evolutionary change over geological and contemporary timescales. Outstanding examples are evolutionary diversification following mass extinctions caused by extreme volcanism or asteroid impact. The evolution of organisms in contemporary time is typically viewed as a gradual and incremental process that results from genetic change, environmental perturbation or both. However, contemporary environments occasionally experience strong perturbations such as heat waves, floods, hurricanes, droughts and pest outbreaks. These extreme events set up strong selection pressures on organisms, and are small-scale analogues of the dramatic changes documented in the fossil record. Because extreme events are rare, almost by definition, they are difficult to study. So far most attention has been given to their ecological rather than to their evolutionary consequences. We review several case studies of contemporary evolution in response to two types of extreme environmental perturbations, episodic (pulse) or prolonged (press). Evolution is most likely to occur when extreme events alter community composition. We encourage investigators to be prepared for evolutionary change in response to rare events during long-term field studies.This article is part of the themed issue 'Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events'.

Climate extremes are associated with invertebrate taxonomic and functional composition in mountain lakes

Climate change is expected to increase climate variability and the occurrence of extreme climatic events, with potentially devastating effects on aquatic ecosystems. However, little is known about the role of climate extremes in structuring aquatic communities or the interplay between climate and local abiotic and biotic factors. Here, we examine the relative influence of climate and local abiotic and biotic conditions on biodiversity and community structure in lake invertebrates. We sampled aquatic invertebrates and measured environmental variables in 19 lakes throughout California, USA, to test hypotheses of the relationship between climate, local biotic and environmental conditions, and the taxonomic and functional structure of aquatic invertebrate communities. We found that, while local biotic and abiotic factors such as habitat availability and conductivity were the most consistent predictors of alpha diversity, extreme climate conditions such as maximum summer temperature and dry-season precipitation were most often associated with multivariate taxonomic and functional composition. Specifically, sites with high maximum temperatures and low dry-season precipitation housed communities containing high abundances of large predatory taxa. Furthermore, both climate dissimilarity and abiotic dissimilarity determined taxonomic turnover among sites (beta diversity). These findings suggest that while local-scale environmental variables may predict alpha diversity, climatic variability is important to consider when projecting broad-scale aquatic community responses to the extreme temperature and precipitation events that are expected for much of the world during the next century.

Losing your edge: climate change and the conservation value of range-edge populations

Populations occurring at species' range edges can be locally adapted to unique environmental conditions. From a species' perspective, range-edge environments generally have higher severity and frequency of extreme climatic events relative to the range core. Under future climates, extreme climatic events are predicted to become increasingly important in defining species' distributions. Therefore, range-edge genotypes that are better adapted to extreme climates relative to core populations may be essential to species' persistence during periods of rapid climate change. We use relatively simple conceptual models to highlight the importance of locally adapted range-edge populations (leading and trailing edges) for determining the ability of species to persist under future climates. Using trees as an example, we show how locally adapted populations at species' range edges may expand under future climate change and become more common relative to range-core populations. We also highlight how large-scale habitat destruction occurring in some geographic areas where many species range edge converge, such as biome boundaries and ecotones (e.g., the arc of deforestation along the rainforest-cerrado ecotone in the southern Amazonia), can have major implications for global biodiversity. As climate changes, range-edge populations will play key roles in helping species to maintain or expand their geographic distributions. The loss of these locally adapted range-edge populations through anthropogenic disturbance is therefore hypothesized to reduce the ability of species to persist in the face of rapid future climate change.

Size-Dependent Realized Fecundity in Two Lepidopteran Capital Breeders

Body size is correlated with potential fecundity in capital breeders, but size-dependent functions of realized fecundity may be impacted by reproductive losses due to mating failure or oviposition time limitations (number of eggs remaining in the abdomen of females at death). Post-mortem assessment of adults collected in the field after natural death represents a sound approach to quantify how body size affects realized fecundity. This approach is used here for two Lepidoptera for which replicated field data are available, the spruce budworm Choristoneura fumiferana Clemens (Tortricidae) and bagworm Metisa plana Walker (Psychidae). Dead female budworms were collected on drop trays placed beneath tree canopies at four locations. Most females had mated during their lifetime (presence of a spermatophore in spermatheca), and body size did not influence mating failure. Oviposition time limitation was the major factor restricting realized fecundity of females, and its incidence was independent of body size at three of the four locations. Both realized and potential fecundity of female budworms increased linearly with body size. Female bagworms are neotenous and reproduce within a bag; hence, parameters related to realized fecundity are unusually tractable. For each of five consecutive generations of bagworms, mating probability increased with body size, so that virgin-dead females were predominantly small, least fecund individuals. The implication of size-dependent reproductive losses are compared for the two organisms in terms of life history theory and population dynamics, with an emphasis on how differential female motility affects the evolutionary and ecological consequences of size-dependent realized fecundity.