Impacts of climate change on distributions and diversity of ungulates on the Tibetan Plateau

Identifying climate refugia for wild yaks (Bos mutus) on the Tibetan Plateau

Climate change is threatening fragile alpine ecosystems and their resident ungulates, particularly the wild yak (Bos mutus) that inhabits alpine areas between the tree line and glaciers on the Tibetan Plateau. Although wild yaks tend to shift habitats in response to changes in climatic factors, the precise impacts of climate change on their habitat distribution and climate refugia remain unclear. Based on over 1000 occurrence records, the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) algorithm was applied to simulate habitat ranges in the last glacial maximum (LGM), Mid-Holocene, current stage, and three greenhouse gas emission scenarios in 2070. Three habitat patches were identified as climate refugia for wild yaks that have persisted from the LGM to the present and are projected to persist until 2070. These stable areas account for approximately 64% of the current wild yak habitat extent and are sufficiently large to support viable populations. The long-term persistence of these climate refugia areas is primarily attributed to the unique alpine environmental features of the Tibetan Plateau, where relatively stable arid or semi-arid climates are maintained, and a wide range of forage resource supplies are available. However, habitat loss by 2070 caused by insufficient protection is predicted to lead to severe fragmentation in the southeastern and northwestern Kunlun, Hengduan, central-western Qilian, and southern Tanggula-northern Himalaya Mountains. Habitat disturbance has also been caused by increasing anthropogenic effects in the southern Tanggula and northern Himalaya Mountains. We suggest that sufficient protection, transboundary cooperation, and community involvement are required to improve wild yak conservation efforts. Our combined modeling method (MaxEnt-Zonation-Linkage Mapper-FRAGSTAT) can be utilized to identify priority areas and linkages between habitat patches while assessing the conservation efficiency of protected areas and analyzing the coupled relationship between climate change and anthropogenic impacts on the habitat distribution of endangered species.

Assessment of Suitable Habitat of the Demoiselle Crane (Anthropoides virgo) in the Wake of Climate Change: A Study of Its Wintering Refugees in Pakistan

The inevitable impacts of climate change have reverberated across ecosystems and caused substantial global biodiversity loss. Climate-induced habitat loss has contributed to range shifts at both species and community levels. Given the importance of identifying suitable habitats for at-risk species, it is imperative to assess potential current and future distributions, and to understand influential environmental factors. Like many species, the Demoiselle crane is not immune to climatic pressures. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan provinces in Pakistan are known wintering grounds for this species. Given that Pakistan is among the top five countries facing devastating effects of climate change, this study sought to conduct species distribution modeling under climate change using data collected during 4 years of field surveys. We developed a Maximum Entropy distribution model to predict the current and projected future distribution of the species across the study area. Future habitat projections for 2050 and 2070 were carried out using two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) under three global circulation models, including HADGEM2-AO, BCC-CSM1-1, and CCSM4. The most influential factors shaping Demoiselle Crane habitat suitability included the temperature seasonality, annual mean temperature, terrain ruggedness index, and human population density, all of which contributed significantly to the suitability (81.3%). The model identified 35% of the study area as moderately suitable (134,068 km2) and highly suitable (27,911 km2) habitat for the species under current climatic conditions. Under changing climate scenarios, our model predicted a major loss of the species' current suitable habitat, with shrinkage and shift towards western-central areas along the Pakistan-Afghanistan boarder. The RCP 8.5, which is the extreme climate change scenario, portrays particularly severe consequences, with habitat losses reaching 65% in 2050 and 85% in 2070. This comprehensive study provides useful insights into the Demoiselle Crane habitat's current and future dynamics in Pakistan.

Maintaining the native gut microbiota of bharal (Pseudois nayaur) is crucial in ex situ conservation

As wildlife protection continue to strengthen, research on the gut microbiota of wildlife is increasing. Carrying out conservation and research on endangered species in the Qinghai Tibet Plateau plays an important role in global biodiversity conservation. This study utilized 16S rRNA sequencing of fecal samples to investigate the composition, function, and changes of the gut microbiota of bharal in different environments, seasons, and genders. The results showed that Firmicutes and Bacteroidota were the dominant phyla and UCG-005, Bacteroides, UCG-010 were the dominant genera of bharal. In the wild, the abundance of Firmicutes increased which was conducive to the decomposition and utilization of cellulose, hemicellulose, and carbohydrate. Due to the variety of food types and nutrition in different seasons, the composition and function of gut microbiota were obviously different between genders. Compared with zoo, higher alpha diversity, a more complex gut microbiota network structure, and stronger metabolic function were conducive bharal to adapting to the wild environment. In the zoo, captive bharals were fed foods rich in high fat and protein, which increased the abundance of Bacteroidota and reduced the alpha diversity of gut microbiota. A fixed diet unified the gut microbiota between genders of bharal. It is very important to pay attention to the impact of captive environments and maintain the native gut microbiota of wildlife.

Scenarios of change in the realized climatic niche of mountain carnivores and ungulates

Mountains are among the natural systems most affected by climate change, and mountain mammals are considered particularly imperiled, given their high degree of specialization to narrow tolerance bands of environmental conditions. Climate change mitigation policies, such as the Paris Agreement, are essential to stem climate change impacts on natural systems. But how significant is the Paris Agreement to the survival of mountain mammals? We investigated how alternative emission scenarios may determine change in the realized climatic niche of mountain carnivores and ungulates in 2050. We based our predictions of future change in species niches based on how species have responded to past environmental changes, focusing on the probabilities of niche shrink and niche stability. We found that achieving the Paris Agreement's commitments would substantially reduce climate instability for mountain species. Specifically, limiting global warming to below 1.5°C would reduce the probability of niche shrinkage by 4% compared with a high-emission scenario. Globally, carnivores showed greater niche shrinkage than ungulates, whereas ungulates were more likely to shift their niches (i.e., face a level of climate change that allows adaptation). Twenty-three species threatened by climate change according to the IUCN Red List had greater niche contraction than other species we analyzed (3% higher on average). We therefore argue that climate mitigation policies must be coupled with rapid species-specific conservation intervention and sustainable land-use policies to avoid high risk of loss of already vulnerable species.

Climatic factors and human disturbance influence ungulate species distribution on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Due to human activities and climate change, the habitats of ungulate species on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau have been greatly affected in recent decades. In this study, the distribution patterns of 19 ungulate species on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau were identified based on MaxEnt model in the past (1960-1990) and current periods (2000-2015). Then the changes of their habitat distribution and the species richness in different periods were compared. Finally, the Zonation model was used to identify the key protected areas of ungulate species. The results show that the MaxEnt model can well predict the distribution of ungulate species. Most ungulate species are mainly distributed in the southeast of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The distance to lakes and precipitation are the main factors affecting the distribution of most ungulate species. The habitats originally located in the southeast of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau have mainly extended northeastwards, while the habitats originally located in the northwest has been largely lost. The changes in the habitats of ungulate species in the southeast and northwest are diametrically opposite. The key protected areas identified by Zonation model are mainly located in the southeast of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The existing nature reserves can effectively protect the suitable habitats of the Tibetan antelope, Tibetan wild ass and wild yak. This research can provide scientific basis for coordinating the contradiction between development and protection and promoting the biodiversity conservation on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.

Food webs reveal coexistence mechanisms and community organization in carnivores

Globally, massive carnivore guild extirpations have led to trophic downgrading and compromised ecosystem services. However, the complexity of multi-carnivore food webs complicates accurate identification of species interactions and community organization. Here, we used fecal DNA metabarcoding to investigate three communities that together encompass eight large- and meso-carnivore species and their 44 prey taxa of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP), one of the last places on Earth that still harbors intact carnivore assemblages. Quantitative food-web analyses revealed pronounced interspecific variations in the carnivores' prey compositions and dietary partitioning both between and within guilds. Additionally, body masses of the carnivores and their prey exhibited consistent hump-shaped correlations across communities. Overall, differences in prey diversity, size category, and proportional utilization among the carnivore species result in trophic niche segregation that likely promotes carnivore coexistence in the harsh QTP environment. Network structure analyses detected significant modularity in all food webs but nestedness in only one. Furthermore, network characterization identified pikas (Ochotona spp.), bharal (Pseudois nayaur), and domestic yak (Bos grunniens) as potential keystone prey across the areas. Our results paint a holistic and detailed picture of the QTP carnivore assemblages' trophic networks and demonstrate that the combined use of the molecular dietary approach and network analysis can generate structural insights into carnivore coexistence and can identify functionally important species in complex communities. Such knowledge can help safeguard carnivore guild integrity and enhance community resilience to environmental perturbations in the sensitive QTP ecosystems.

Effects of climate and land-cover change on the conservation status of gibbons

Species shift their distribution in response to climate and land-cover change, which may result in a spatial mismatch between currently protected areas (PAs) and priority conservation areas (PCAs). We examined the effects of climate and land-cover change on potential range of gibbons and sought to identify PCAs that would conserve them effectively. We collected global gibbon occurrence points and modeled (ecological niche model) their current and potential 2050s ranges under climate-change and different land-cover-change scenarios. We examined change in range and PA coverage between the current and future ranges of each gibbon species. We applied spatial conservation prioritization to identify the top 30% PCAs for each species. We then determined how much of the PCAs are conserved in each country within the global range of gibbons. On average, 31% (SD 22) of each species' current range was covered in PAs. PA coverage of the current range of 9 species was <30%. Nine species lost on average 46% (SD 29) of their potential range due to climate change. Under climate-change with an optimistic land-cover-change scenario (B1), 12 species lost 39% (SD 28) of their range. In a pessimistic land-cover-change scenario (A2), 15 species lost 36% (SD 28) of their range. Five species lost significantly more range under the A2 scenario than the B1 scenario (p = 0.01, SD 0.01), suggesting that gibbons will benefit from effective management of land cover. PA coverage of future range was <30% for 11 species. On average, 32% (SD 25) of PCAs were covered by PAs. Indonesia contained more species and PCAs and thus has the greatest responsibility for gibbon conservation. Indonesia, India, and Myanmar need to expand their PAs to fulfill their responsibility to gibbon conservation. Our results provide a baseline for global gibbon conservation, particularly for countries lacking gibbon research capacity.

Realized niche shift of an invasive widow spider: drivers and impacts of human activities

Background

Predicting invasiveness requires an understanding of the propensity of a given species to thrive in areas with novel ecological challenges. Evaluation of realized niche shift of an invasive species in its invasive range, detecting the main drivers of the realized niche shift, and predicting the potential distribution of the species can provide important information for the management of populations of invasive species and the conservation of biodiversity. The Australian redback spider, Latrodectus hasselti, is a widow spider that is native to Australia and established in Japan, New Zealand, and Southeast Asia. We used ecological niche models and ordinal comparisons in an integrative method to compare the realized niches of native and invasive populations of this spider species. We also assessed the impact of several climatic predictor variables and human activity on this niche shift. We hypothesized that human impact is important for successful establishment of this anthropophilic species, and that climatic predictor variables may determine suitable habitat and thus predict invasive ranges.

Results

Our models showed that L. hasselti distributions are positively influenced by human impact in both of the native and invasive ranges. Maximum temperature was the most important climatic variable in predictions of the distribution of native populations, while precipitation seasonality was the most important in predictions of invasive populations. The realized niche of L. hasselti in its invasive range differed from that in its native range, indicating possible realized niche shift.

Conclusions

We infer that a preference for human-disturbed environments may underlie invasion and establishment in this spider species, as anthropogenic habitat modifications could provide shelters from unsuitable climatic conditions and extreme climatic stresses to the spiders. Because Australia and the countries in which the species is invasive have differing climates, differences in the availability of certain climatic conditions could have played a role in the realized niche shift of L. hasselti.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12983-022-00470-z.

Modeling climate change impacts on the distribution of an endangered brown bear population in its critical habitat in Iran

Climate change is one of the major challenges to the current conservation of biodiversity. Here, by using the brown bear, Ursus arctos, in the southernmost limit of its global distribution as a model species, we assessed the impact of climate change on the species distribution in western Iran. The mountainous forests of Iran are inhabited by small and isolated populations of brown bears that are prone to extinction in the near future. We modeled the potential impact of climate change on brown bear distribution and habitat connectivity by the years 2050 and 2070 under four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) of two general circulation models (GCMs): BCC-CSM1-1 and MRI-CGCM3. Our projections revealed that the current species' range, which encompasses 6749.8 km² (40.8%) of the landscape, will decline by 10% (2050: RCP2.6, MRI-CGCM3) to 45% (2070: RCP8.5, BCC-CSM1-1). About 1850 km² (27.4%) of the current range is covered by a network of conservation (CAs) and no-hunting (NHAs) areas which are predicted to decline by 0.64% (2050: RCP2.6, MRI-CGCM3) to 15.56% (2070: RCP8.5, BCC-CSM1-1) due to climate change. The loss of suitable habitats falling within the network of CAs and NHAs is a conservation challenge for brown bears because it may lead to bears moving outside the CAs and NHAs and result in subsequent increases in the levels of bear-human conflict. Thus, re-evaluation of the network of CAs and NHAs, establishing more protected areas in suitable landscapes, and conserving vital linkages between habitat patches under future climate change scenarios are crucial strategies to conserve and manage endangered populations of the brown bear.

Potential Habitats and Their Conservation Status for Swan Geese (Anser cygnoides) along the East Asian Flyway

Habitats provide essential space for migratory birds to survive and reproduce. Identifying potential habitats in annual cycle stages and their influencing factors is indispensable for conservation along the flyway. In this study, we obtained satellite tracking of eight swan geese (Anser cygnoides) wintering at Poyang Lake (28°57′4.2″, 116°21′53.36″) from 2019 to 2020. Using the Maximum Entropy species distribution model, we investigated the potential habitats distribution of the swan geese during their migration cycle. We analyzed the relative contribution of various environmental factors to habitat suitability and conservation status for each potential habitat along the flyway. Our results show that the primary wintering grounds of swan geese are located in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. Stopover sites were widely distributed, mainly in the Bohai Rim, the middle reaches of the Yellow River, and the Northeast Plain, and extended westward to Inner Mongolia and Mongolia. Breeding grounds are mainly in Inner Mongolia and eastern Mongolia, while some are scattered in Mongolia’s central and western. The contribution rates of major environmental factors are different in breeding grounds, stopover sites, and wintering grounds. Breeding grounds were influenced by slope, elevation, and temperature. Slope, human footprint index, and temperature were the main factors that affected stopover sites. Wintering grounds were determined by land use, elevation, and precipitation. The conservation status of habitats is 9.6% for breeding grounds, 9.2% for wintering grounds, and 5.3% for stopover sites. Our findings thus provide a critically international assessment of potential habitats protection for geese species on the East Asian Flyway.

Expanding or shrinking? range shifts in wild ungulates under climate change in Pamir-Karakoram mountains, Pakistan

Climate change is expected to impact a large number of organisms in many ecosystems, including several threatened mammals. A better understanding of climate impacts on species can make conservation efforts more effective. The Himalayan ibex (Capra ibex sibirica) and blue sheep (Pseudois nayaur) are economically important wild ungulates in northern Pakistan because they are sought-after hunting trophies. However, both species are threatened due to several human-induced factors, and these factors are expected to aggravate under changing climate in the High Himalayas. In this study, we investigated populations of ibex and blue sheep in the Pamir-Karakoram mountains in order to (i) update and validate their geographical distributions through empirical data; (ii) understand range shifts under climate change scenarios; and (iii) predict future habitats to aid long-term conservation planning. Presence records of target species were collected through camera trapping and sightings in the field. We constructed Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model on presence record and six key climatic variables to predict the current and future distributions of ibex and blue sheep. Two representative concentration pathways (4.5 and 8.5) and two-time projections (2050 and 2070) were used for future range predictions. Our results indicated that ca. 37% and 9% of the total study area (Gilgit-Baltistan) was suitable under current climatic conditions for Himalayan ibex and blue sheep, respectively. Annual mean precipitation was a key determinant of suitable habitat for both ungulate species. Under changing climate scenarios, both species will lose a significant part of their habitats, particularly in the Himalayan and Hindu Kush ranges. The Pamir-Karakoram ranges will serve as climate refugia for both species. This area shall remain focus of future conservation efforts to protect Pakistan’s mountain ungulates.

Antioxidant response to severe hypoxia in Brandt's vole Lasiopodomys brandtii

The antioxidant defense system is essential for animals to cope with homeostasis disruption and overcome oxidative stress caused by adverse environmental conditions such as hypoxia. However, our understanding of how this system works in subterranean rodents remains limited. In this study, Brandt's vole Lasiopodomys brandtii was exposed to normoxia (21% O₂ ) or hypoxia (mild or severe hypoxia: 10% or 5% O₂ ) for 6 h. Changes in key enzymes of the classic enzymatic antioxidant system at both mRNA and enzyme activity levels, and tissue antioxidant levels of the low-molecular-weight antioxidant system were determined in brain, liver, and kidney. Transcript levels of the upstream regulator NF-E2-related factor 2 (Nrf2) were also measured. We found that the mRNA expression of Nrf2 and its downstream antioxidant enzyme genes in L. brandtii were relatively conserved in response to hypoxia in most tissues and genes tested, except in the liver. Hepatic Nrf2, Cu/Zn SOD, GPx1, and GPx3 levels were significantly upregulated in response to mild hypoxia, whereas Mn SOD level decreased significantly in severe hypoxia. Unmatched with changes at the RNA level, constitutively high and relatively stable antioxidant enzyme activities were maintained throughout. For the low-molecular-weight antioxidant system, an abrupt increase of cerebral ascorbic acid (AA) levels in hypoxia indicated a tissue-specific antioxidant response. Although hypoxia did not cause significant oxidative damage in most tissues tested, the significant decrease in antioxidant enzyme activities (GPX and GR) and increase in lipid peroxidation in the kidney suggest that prolonged hypoxia may pose a critical threat to this species.

Diverse energy metabolism patterns in females in Neodon fuscus, Lasiopodomys brandtii, and Mus musculus revealed by comparative transcriptomics under hypoxic conditions

The effects of global warming and anthropogenic disturbance force animals to migrate from lower to higher elevations to find suitable new habitats. As such migrations increase hypoxic stress on the animals, it is important to understand how plateau- and plain-dwelling animals respond to low-oxygen environments. We used comparative transcriptomics to explore the response of Neodon fuscus, Lasiopodomys brandtii, and Mus musculus skeletal muscle tissues to hypoxic conditions. Results indicate that these species have adopted different oxygen transport and energy metabolism strategies for dealing with a hypoxic environment. N. fuscus promotes oxygen transport by increasing hemoglobin synthesis and reduces the risk of thrombosis through cooperative regulation of genes, including Fga, Fgb, Alb, and Ttr; genes such as Acs16, Gpat4, and Ndufb7 are involved in regulating lipid synthesis, fatty acid β-oxidation, hemoglobin synthesis, and electron-linked transmission, thereby maintaining a normal energy supply in hypoxic conditions. In contrast, the oxygen-carrying capacity and angiogenesis of red blood cells in L. brandtii are promoted by genes in the CYP and COL families; this species maintains its bodily energy supply by enhancing the pentose phosphate pathway and mitochondrial fatty acid synthesis pathway. However, under hypoxia, M. musculus cannot effectively transport additional oxygen; thus, its cell cycle, proliferation, and migration are somewhat affected. Given its lack of hypoxic tolerance experience, M. musculus also shows significantly reduced oxidative phosphorylation levels under hypoxic conditions. Our results suggest that the glucose capacity of M. musculus skeletal muscle does not provide sufficient energy during hypoxia; thus, we hypothesize that it supplements its bodily energy by synthesizing ketone bodies. For the first time, we describe the energy metabolism pathways of N. fuscus and L. brandtii skeletal muscle tissues under hypoxic conditions. Our findings, therefore, improve our understanding of how vertebrates thrive in high altitude and plain habitats when faced with hypoxic conditions.

Limited transgenerational effects of environmental temperatures on thermal performance of a cold-adapted salmonid

The capacity of ectotherms to cope with rising temperatures associated with climate change is a significant conservation concern as the rate of warming is likely too rapid to allow for adaptative responses in many populations. Transgenerational plasticity (TGP), if present, could potentially buffer some of the negative impacts of warming on future generations. We examined TGP in lake trout to assess their inter-generational potential to cope with anticipated warming. We acclimated adult lake trout to cold (10°C) or warm (17°C) temperatures for several months, then bred them to produce offspring from parents within a temperature treatment (cold-acclimated and warm-acclimated parents) and between temperature treatments (i.e. reciprocal crosses). At the fry stage, offspring were also acclimated to cold (11°C) or warm (15°C) temperatures. Thermal performance was assessed by measuring their critical thermal maximum (CTM) and the change in metabolic rate during an acute temperature challenge. From this dataset, we also determined their resting and peak (highest achieved, thermally induced) metabolic rates. There was little variation in offspring CTM or peak metabolic rate, although cold-acclimated offspring from warm-acclimated parents exhibited elevated resting metabolic rates without a corresponding increase in mass or condition factor, suggesting that transgenerational effects can be detrimental when parent and offspring environments mismatch. These results suggest that the limited TGP in thermal performance of lake trout is unlikely to significantly influence population responses to projected increases in environmental temperatures.

Shifts in bird ranges and conservation priorities in China under climate change

Climate change is one of the most significant causes of species range shift and extinction. Based on a citizen science dataset of birds in China, the Bird Report, we developed a high-resolution map of bird species richness in China, and simulated the range shifts and area changes of the 1,042 birds through the year 2070 using three different General Circulation Models and two different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs, including RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5). It was found that 241-244 (under different scenarios) bird species would lose a portion of their distribution ranges; and that most species in China would move to either higher elevations or northward. The other 798-801 species would experience range expansion. Compared to resident species (n = 516), migratory birds (n = 526) may undergo more limited range expansion but a longer range shift distance on average. The species diversity of birds will considerably increase in areas higher than 1,500 m in elevation under both RCPs. Conservation priorities with higher species richness were also identified using the Zonation model. The existing national nature reserves are not sufficient for protecting important bird habitats, especially after range shifts. Significant gaps in protected areas were observed in the northern Xinjiang, southern Tibet, Greater Khingan, Sanjiang Plain, Songnen Plain, northern Bohai Rim, and southeastern coastline areas. Many of these areas are characterized by high human populations and intensive development, and establishing sizable protected areas has become difficult. Inclusive conservation mechanisms that include restoring habitats in urban parks and sharing habitats in farmland areas, may be a feasible solution.

Shifts in habitat suitability and the conservation status of the Endangered Andean cat Leopardus jacobita under climate change scenarios

Organisms adapted to life at high elevations are particularly threatened by climate change, which can cause them to become isolated on mountain tops, yet their responses may vary according to their position in the food chain and their ecological flexibility. Predicting the future distributions of such organisms requires fine-tuned species-specific models. Building on a previous ecological niche model, we explored shifts in the suitability of habitats for the Endangered Andean cat Leopardus jacobita, and assessed how these will be represented within existing protected areas in the future. Using a robust set of presence records and corrected climate surfaces, we applied the Maxent algorithm to model habitat suitability for this carnivore and for its preferred prey, the mountain viscacha Lagidium viscacia. Our predictions indicate that the areas climatically suitable for Andean cats could contract by up to 30% by 2080 under the most pessimistic scenario, with an overall upwards shift of 225 m and a polewards displacement of 98–180 km. The predicted range contraction was more pronounced in the species’ core range, in the Bolivian and Peruvian Andes, whereas suitable conditions may increase in the southern range in Patagonia. Bolivia and Peru are predicted to suffer the most marked decline in habitat representativeness within protected areas. The southern range appears to be less vulnerable to climate change, offering opportunities for the conservation of this genetically distinct population. We discuss the value and limitations of using species distribution modelling to assess changes in the potential distribution and conservation status of this and other Andean species.

First detection of bovine coronavirus in Yak (Bos grunniens) and a bovine coronavirus genome with a recombinant HE gene

The yak (Bosgrunniens) is a unique domestic bovine species that plays an indispensable role for herdsmen in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. Here, 336 diarrhoeic samples were collected from yaks on 29 farms in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau from 2015 to 2017. Approximately 69.05 % (232/336) of the diarrhoeic samples were assessed as bovine coronavirus (BCoV)-positive by RT-PCR assay, and most of the detected strains showed a unique evolution based on 40 spike (S), nucleocapsid (N) and haemagglutinin-esterase (HE) gene fragments. Notably, the 12 complete S genes detected shared 1 identical amino acid mutation (E121V) in the S1 subunit compared with the other 150 complete S genes in the GenBank database. Furthermore, a BCoV strain (designated YAK/HY24/CH/2017) was isolated from one diarrhoeic sample (virus titre : 10^8.17TCID₅₀ ml⁻¹), and a phylogenetic analysis based on complete genome sequences revealed that strain YAK/HY24/CH/2017 has the closest genetic relationship with the BCoV prototype strain Mebus. Interestingly, 2 significant characteristics were observed in the genome of strain YAK/HY24/CH/2017 :  (1) the strain had 26 unique amino acid variations in the S gene compared with the other 150 BCoV S genes in the GenBank database and (2) a recombination event was identified between the esterase and lectin domains of the HE gene. In conclusion, this study revealed the high prevalence of BCoV in yaks in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first description of the molecular prevalence of BCoV in yaks and of a BCoV genome with an HE gene recombination.

Gap analysis and implications for seasonal management on a local scale

BACKGROUND

Identifying biodiversity hotspots on a local scale, using multiple data sources, and ecological niche modeling, has the potential to contribute to more effective nature reserve management.

METHODS

In this study, we used infrared-triggered camera trapping, field surveys, and interviews to create a dataset on the distribution of species (mammals and birds) in Hebei Wulingshan Nature Reserve (Hebei Province, China).

RESULTS

We identified 101 species (14 orders, 38 families), 64 of which (2,142 effective records) were selected for environmental niche modeling. All results were reclassified into three groups: "priority areas" (areas including the potential distributions of over 80% of species), "important areas" (those with 50% of species), and "normal areas" (all other areas). Our results show that priority areas (1.31-1.82 km2) and important areas (7.73-21.44 km2) for conservation were mainly covered by the core and experimental zones of the reserve; additionally, a kilometer-wide margin around the outside of the nature reserve seems to be important to maintaining biodiversity.

DISCUSSION

We close by suggesting some actions for enhancing conservation of biodiversity in the reserve, including monitoring, strengthen law enforcements, introducing popular science, and co-operating with local people.

Expected impacts of climate change threaten the anuran diversity in the Brazilian hotspots

We performed Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) to generate climatically suitable areas for anurans in the Brazilian hotspots, the Atlantic Forest (AF), and Cerrado (CER), considering the baseline and future climate change scenarios, to evaluate the differences in the alpha and beta diversity metrics across time. We surveyed anuran occurrence records and generated ENMs for 350 and 155 species in the AF and CER. The final predictive maps for the baseline, 2050, and 2070 climate scenarios, based on an ensemble approach, were used to estimate the alpha (local species richness) and beta diversity metrics (local contribution to beta diversity index and its decomposition into replacement and nestedness components) in each ~50 × 50 km grid cell of the hotspots. Climate change is not expected to drastically change the distribution of the anuran richness gradients, but to negatively impact their whole extensions (i.e., cause species losses throughout the hotspots), except the northeastern CER that is expected to gain in species richness. Areas having high beta diversity are expected to decrease in northeastern CER, whereas an increase is expected in southeastern/southwestern CER under climate change. High beta diversity areas are expected to remain in the same AF locations as the prediction of the baseline climate, but the predominance of species loss under climate change is expected to increase the nestedness component in the hotspot. These results suggest that the lack of similar climatically suitable areas for most species will be the main challenge that species will face in the future. Finally, the application of the present framework to a wide range of taxa is an important step for the conservation of threatened biomes.

Anchoring and adjusting amidst humans: Ranging behavior of Persian leopards along the Iran-Turkmenistan borderland

Understanding the space use and movement ecology of apex predators, particularly in mosaic landscapes encompassing different land-uses, is fundamental for formulating effective conservation policy. The top extant big cat in the Middle East and the Caucasus, the Persian leopard Panthera pardus saxicolor, has disappeared from most of its historic range. Its spatial ecology in the areas where it remains is almost unknown. Between September 2014 and May 2017, we collared and monitored six adult leopards (5 males and 1 female) using GPS-satellite Iridium transmitters in Tandoureh National Park (355 km²) along the Iran-Turkmenistan borderland. Using auto-correlated Kernel density estimation based on a continuous-time stochastic process for relocation data, we estimated a mean home range of 103.4 ± SE 51.8 km² for resident males which is larger than has been observed in other studies of Asian leopards. Most predation events occurred in core areas, averaging 32.4 ± SE 12.7 km². Although neighboring leopards showed high spatiotemporal overlap, their hunting areas were largely exclusive. Five out of six of leopards spent some time outside the national park, among human communities. Our study suggests that a national park can play an ‘anchoring’ role for individuals of an apex predator that spend some time in the surrounding human-dominated landscapes. Therefore, we envisage that instead of emphasizing either land sharing or land sparing, a combined approach can secure the viability of resilient large carnivores that are able to coexist with humans in the rugged montane landscapes of west and central Asia.

Habitat assessment of Marco Polo sheep (Ovis ammon polii) in Eastern Tajikistan: Modeling the effects of climate change

Identifying the factors predicting the high-elevation suitable habitats of Central Asian argali wild sheep and how these suitable habitats are affected by the changing climate regimes could help address conservation and management efforts and identify future critical habitat for the species in eastern Tajikistan. This study used environmental niche models (ENMs) to map and compare potential present and future distributions of suitable environmental conditions for Marco Polo argali. Argali occurrence points were collected during field surveys conducted from 2009 to 2016. Our models showed that terrain ruggedness and annual mean temperature had strong correlations on argali distribution. We then used two greenhouse gas concentration trajectories (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) for two future time periods (2050 and 2070) to model the impacts of climate change on Marco Polo argali habitat. Results indicated a decline of suitable habitat with majority of losses observed at lower elevations (3,300-4,300 m). Models that considered all variables (climatic and nonclimatic) predicted losses of present suitable areas of 60.6% (6,928 km2) and 63.2% (7,219 km2) by 2050 and 2070, respectively. Results also showed averaged habitat gains of 46.2% (6,106 km2) at much higher elevations (4,500-6,900 m) and that elevational shifts of habitat use could occur in the future. Our results could provide information for conservation planning for this near threatened species in the region.

Long-term ecological data for conservation: Range change in the black-billed capercaillie (Tetrao urogalloides) in northeast China (1970s-2070s)

Long‐term ecological data can be an effective tool to help ecologists integrate future projections with historical contexts and provide unique insights into the long‐term dynamics of endangered species. However, hampered by data limitations, including incomplete and spatially biased data, relatively few studies have used multidecadal datasets or have examined changes in biogeography from a historical perspective. The black‐billed capercaillie (Tetrao urogalloides) is a large capercaillie (classified as Least Concern [LC] on the IUCN red list) that has undergone a dramatic decline in population during the late 20th century and is considered endangered. Its conservation status is pessimistic, and the species requires immediate protection. Therefore, we supplemented a historical dataset to identify changes in this bird's range and population in northeast China over the long term. The study area spanned Heilongjiang Province, Jilin Province, and the northeast corner of Inner Mongolia in northeast China. We integrated an ecological niche model (BIOMOD2) with long‐term ecological data on this species to estimate the magnitude of change in distribution over time. Our results revealed a 35.25% reduction in the current distribution of this species compared to their potential distribution in the 1970s. This decline is expected to continue under climate change. For example, the future range loss was estimated to be 38.79 ± 0.22% (8.64–90.19%), and the actual state could be worse, because the baseline range of the model was greater than the real range in the 2000s, showing a 12.39% overestimation. To overcome this poor outlook, a conservation strategy should be established in sensitive areas, including the southwestern Greater Khingan Mountains and northern Lesser Khingan Mountains. Actions that should be considered include field investigations, establishing a monitor network, designing ecological corridors, and cooperating with local inhabitants, governments, and conservation biologists to improve the conservation of the black‐billed capercaillie.

Summer and winter habitat suitability of Marco Polo argali in southeastern Tajikistan: A modeling approach

We modeled summer and winter habitat suitability of Marco Polo argali in the Pamir Mountains in southeastern Tajikistan using these statistical algorithms: Generalized Linear Model, Random Forest, Boosted Regression Tree, Maxent, and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines. Using sheep occurrence data collected from 2009 to 2015 and a set of selected habitat predictors, we produced summer and winter habitat suitability maps and determined the important habitat suitability predictors for both seasons. Our results demonstrated that argali selected proximity to riparian areas and greenness as the two most relevant variables for summer, and the degree of slope (gentler slopes between 0° to 20°) and Landsat temperature band for winter. The terrain roughness was also among the most important variables in summer and winter models. Aspect was only significant for winter habitat, with argali preferring south-facing mountain slopes. We evaluated various measures of model performance such as the Area Under the Curve (AUC) and the True Skill Statistic (TSS). Comparing the five algorithms, the AUC scored highest for Boosted Regression Tree in summer (AUC = 0.94) and winter model runs (AUC = 0.94). In contrast, Random Forest underperformed in both model runs.

Geographic characteristics of sable (Martes zibellina) distribution over time in Northeast China

Understanding historical context can help clarify the ecological and biogeographic characteristics of species population changes. The sable (Martes zibellina) population has decreased dramatically in Northeast China since the l950s, and understanding the changes in its distribution over time is necessary to support conservation efforts. To achieve this goal, we integrated ecological niche modeling and historical records of sables to estimate the magnitude of change in their distribution over time. Our results revealed a 51.71% reduction in their distribution in 2000–2016 compared with the potential distribution in the 1950s. This reduction was related to climate change (Pearson's correlation: Bio1, −.962, p < .01; Bio2, −.962, p < .01; Bio5, .817, p < .05; Bio6, .847, p < .05) and human population size (−.956, p < .01). The sable population tended to migrate in different directions and elevations over time in different areas due to climate change: In the Greater Khingan Mountains, they moved northward and to lower elevations; in the Lesser Khingan Mountains, they moved northward; and in the Changbai Mountains, they move southward and to higher elevations. Active conservation strategies should be considered in locations where sable populations have migrated or may migrate to.

Demographic parameters of the squirrel glider (Petaurus norfolcensis) in an urban forest remnant

The effective management of species requires detailed knowledge of key population parameters. A capture–mark–recapture study of the squirrel glider (Petaurus norfolcensis) was conducted in an urban forest remnant in Brisbane, south-east Queensland. A total of 187 adult gliders (96 females, 91 males) was captured 620 times, in 19 sessions over a 4-year period. A Cormack–Jolly–Seber model was employed to estimate adult survival and abundance. Factors that may affect survival (e.g. sex, year, season) were included in population models. The overall probability of annual apparent survival was 0.49 ± 0.08. The capture probability over the duration of the study was 0.38 ± 0.03. The size of the local population was highest in the first year of the study (70–113 individuals) but then declined and generally remained low in the last two years. Apparent survival may include an unknown component of dispersal. However, our study area was mostly surrounded by a hostile urban matrix, so the effect of dispersal may have been minimal. Further studies that assess the survival of squirrel gliders are needed to assess the extent to which this parameter varies among localities.

Impacts of climate change on the distribution of Sichuan snub-nosed monkeys (Rhinopithecus roxellana) in Shennongjia area, China

Understanding the effects of climate change on primate ranging patterns is crucial for conservation planning. Rhinopithecus roxellana is an endangered primate species distributed in mountainous forests at the elevation of 1500-3500 m a.s.l. in China. Our study site, the Shennongjia National Nature Reserve, represents the eastern-most distribution of this species. This area has experienced significant habitat loss and fragmentation because of human population growth, increased farming and logging, and climate change. To estimate how changes in temperature and rainfall will affect the presumed future distribution of this species, we examined eco-geographic factors including bioclimate, habitat (vegetation type, landcover, etc.), topography, and human impact (human population, gross domestic product, etc.), and provide suggestions for management and conservation. We used a maximum entropy approach to predict the location and distribution of habitats suitable for R. roxellana in the present, 2020, 2050, and 2080 based on 33 environmental parameters, three general circulation models, three emissions scenarios, and two dispersal hypotheses. According to the ensemble modeling, we found range reductions of almost 30% by 2020, 70% by 2050, and over 80% by 2080. Although no obvious differences were found in distribution change based on full and zero dispersal assumptions, our results revealed range reductions in response to elevational, latitudinal, and longitudinal gradients, with the monkeys forced to migrate to higher elevations over time. Bioclimte factors, such as temperature, precipitation, evapo-transpiration, and aridity condition, were dominant contributors to range shifting. As habitat loss due to human influence and climate change is likely to be even more severe in the future, we considered three conservation hot-spots in the Shennongjia area and recommended: (i) securing existing reserves and establishing new reserves, (ii) re-designing management systems to include the Shenongjia reserve and the surrounding reserves and highlighting ecosystem protection at higher elevations, and (iii) using finer-scale research to guide the conservation planning and education in order to enhance protection and awareness in the local community. National and provincial conservation policies should integrate projections of climate change in making effective conservation strategies.