Disentangling physiological and physical explanations for body size-dependent thermal tolerance

The effects of climate change are often body size dependent. One contributing factor could be size-dependent thermal tolerance (SDTT), the propensity for heat and cold tolerance to vary with body size among species and among individuals within species. SDTT is hypothesized to be caused by size differences in the temperature dependence of underlying physiological processes that operate at the cellular and organ/system level (physiological SDTT). However, temperature-dependent physiology need not change with body size for SDTT to be observed. SDTT can also arise because of physical differences that affect the relative body temperature dynamics of large and small organisms (physical SDTT). In this Commentary, I outline how physical SDTT occurs, its mechanistic differences from physiological SDTT, and how physical and physiological SDTT make different predictions about organismal responses to thermal variation. I then describe how physical SDTT can influence the outcome of thermal tolerance experiments, present an experimental framework for disentangling physical and physiological SDTT, and provide examples of tests for physiological SDTT that control for physical effects using data from Anolis lizards. Finally, I discuss how physical SDTT can affect organisms in natural environments and influence their vulnerability to anthropogenic warming. Differentiating between physiological and physical SDTT is important because it has implications for how we design and interpret thermal tolerance experiments and our fundamental understanding of thermal ecology and thermal adaptation.

Geography and developmental plasticity shape post-larval thermal tolerance in the golden star tunicate, Botryllus schlosseri

Local adaptation and phenotypic plasticity play key roles in mediating organisms' ability to respond to spatiotemporal variation in temperature. These two processes often act together to generate latitudinal or elevational clines in acute temperature tolerance. Phenotypic plasticity is also subject to local adaptation, with the expectation that populations inhabiting more variable environments should exhibit greater phenotypic plasticity of thermal tolerance. Here we examine the potential for local adaptation and developmental plasticity of thermal tolerance in the widespread invasive tunicate Botryllus schlosseri. By comparing five populations across a thermal gradient spanning 4.4° of latitude in the northwest Atlantic, we demonstrate that warmer populations south of the Gulf of Maine exhibit significantly increased (∼0.2 °C) post-larval temperature tolerance relative to the colder populations within it. We also show that B. schlosseri post-larvae possess a high degree of developmental plasticity for this trait, shifting their median temperature of survival (LT50) upwards by as much as 0.18 °C per 1 °C increase in environmental temperature. Lastly, we found that populations vary in their degrees of developmental plasticity, with populations that experience more pronounced short-term temperature variability exhibiting greater developmental plasticity, suggesting the local adaptation of developmental plasticity. By comparing the thermal tolerance of populations across space and through time, we demonstrate how geography and developmental plasticity have shaped thermal tolerance in B. schlosseri. These results help inform our understanding of how species are able to adjust their thermal physiology in new environments, including those encountered during invasion and under increasingly novel climate conditions.

Relationship between Nest and Body Temperature and Microclimate in the Paper Wasp Polistes dominula

The paper wasp Polistes dominula is a thermophilic species originating from the Mediterranean climate, but is now widely spread in Europe. They live in quite differing habitats; and as synanthropic species, they have been established in human settlement areas. They build a single small comb at protected places with a favorable microclimate. We measured the temperature of the wasps, the nests and their environment at typical nesting sides in Austria (Europe) in the temperate climate, in order to reveal relationships between nest and body temperature and the habitats' microclimate. The temperatures of the comb and of the wasps' body were in a wide range (~20-37 °C) above the ambient air temperature at the nest. This is an advantage as higher temperatures accelerate the development speed of the brood. However, the mean comb temperature did not exceed approximately 38.6 °C. This was managed by cooling efforts of the adult wasps. The ambient air temperature near the nest (~1-2 cm) was always clearly elevated above the ambient air temperature at a local standard weather station in the habitat. A comparison with climate-model-generated macroclimate data revealed the necessity of measuring microclimate data for a reliable description of the insects' thermal environment.

Extinction risk modeling predicts range-wide differences of climate change impact on Karner blue butterfly (Lycaeides melissa samuelis)

The Karner blue butterfly (Lycaeides melissa samuelis, or Kbb), a federally endangered species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act in decline due to habitat loss, can be further threatened by climate change. Evaluating how climate shapes the population trend of the Kbb can help in the development of adaptive management plans. Current demographic models for the Kbb incorporate in either a density-dependent or density-independent manner. We instead created mixed density-dependent and -independent (hereafter "endo-exogenous") models for Kbbs based on long-term count data of five isolated populations in the upper Midwest, United States during two flight periods (May to June and July to August) to understand how the growth rates were related to previous population densities and abiotic environmental conditions, including various macro- and micro-climatic variables. Our endo-exogenous extinction risk models showed that both density-dependent and -independent components were vital drivers of the historical population trends. However, climate change impacts were not always detrimental to Kbbs. Despite the decrease of population growth rate with higher overwinter temperatures and spring precipitations in the first generation, the growth rate increased with higher summer temperatures and precipitations in the second generation. We concluded that finer spatiotemporally scaled models could be more rewarding in guiding the decision-making process of Kbb restoration under climate change.

Habitat Temperatures of the Red Firebug, Pyrrhocoris apterus: The Value of Small-Scale Climate Data Measurement

Ambient temperature is a main parameter that determines the thriving and propagation of ectothermic insects. It affects egg and larval development as well as adults' survival and successful overwintering. Pyrrhocoris apterus is a herbivorous bug species almost ubiquitous in Eurasia. Its distribution extends from the Atlantic Coast to Siberia, Northwest China and Mongolia. After introduction, it established successfully in the USA, Central America, India and Australia, which indicates a high invasive potential of this species. We determined the climatic conditions in Central Europe in a habitat where P. apterus has been continuously observed for decades. We conducted temperature measurements in the habitat and in the microhabitats where individuals could be found during the year and set them against freely available climate data commonly used to characterize habitat climate. Our temperature measurements were also compared to thermal limits (critical thermal minima and maxima). Although ambient temperatures outside the thermal boundaries of P. apterus can and do occur in the habitat, the bugs thrive and propagate. Microhabitat measurement in winter showed that individuals sought areas with favorable temperatures for hibernation. In particular, these areas are not (always) represented in large-scale climate tables, leading to possible misinterpretation of future patterns of spread of invasive species spread.

Life cycle complexity and body mass drive erratic changes in climate vulnerability across ontogeny in a seasonally migrating butterfly

Physiological traits are often used for vulnerability assessments of organismal responses to climate change. Trait values can change dramatically over the life cycle of organisms but are typically assessed at a single developmental stage. Reconciling ontogenetic changes in physiological traits with vulnerability assessments often reveals early life-stage vulnerabilities. The degree to which ontogenetic changes in physiological traits are due to changes in body mass over development versus stage-specific responses determines the degree to which mass can be used as a proxy for vulnerability. Here, we use the painted lady butterfly, Vanessa cardui, to test ontogenetic changes in two physiological traits, the acute thermal sensitivity of routine metabolic rate (RMR Q10) and the critical thermal maximum (CTmax). RMR Q10 generally followed ontogenetic changes in body mass, with stages characterized by smaller body mass exhibiting lower acute thermal sensitivity. However, CTmax was largely decoupled from ontogenetic changes in body mass. In contrast with trends from other studies showing increasing vulnerability among progressively earlier developmental stages, our study revealed highly erratic patterns of vulnerability across ontogeny. Specifically, we found the lowest joint-trait vulnerability (both RMR Q10 and CTmax) in the earliest developmental stage we tested (3rd instar larvae), the highest vulnerabilities in the next two developmental stages (4th and 5th instar larvae), and reduced vulnerability into the pupal and adult stages. Our study supports growing evidence of mechanistic decoupling of physiology across developmental stages and suggests that body mass is not a universal proxy for all physiological trait indicators of climate vulnerability.

Gut microbiota of two invasive fishes respond differently to temperature

Temperature variation structures the composition and diversity of gut microbiomes in ectothermic animals, key regulators of host physiology, with potential benefit to host or lead to converse results (i.e., negative). So, the significance of either effect may largely depend on the length of time exposed to extreme temperatures and how rapidly the gut microbiota can be altered by change in temperature. However, the temporal effects of temperature on gut microbiota have rarely been clarified. To understand this issue, we exposed two juvenile fishes (Cyprinus carpio and Micropterus salmoides), which both ranked among the 100 worst invasive alien species in the world, to increased environmental temperature and sampled of the gut microbiota at multiple time points after exposure so as to determine when differences in these communities become detectable. Further, how temperature affects the composition and function of microbiota was examined by comparing predicted metagenomic profiles of gut microbiota between treatment groups at the final time point of the experiment. The gut microbiota of C. carpio was more plastic than those of M. salmoides. Specifically, communities of C. carpio were greatly altered by increased temperature within 1 week, while communities of M. salmoides exhibit no significant changes. Further, we identified 10 predicted bacterial functional pathways in C. carpio that were temperature-dependent, while none functional pathways in M. salmoides was found to be temperature-dependent. Thus, the gut microbiota of C. carpio was more sensitive to temperature changes and their functional pathways were significantly changed after temperature treatment. These results showed the gut microbiota of the two invasive fishes differ in response to temperature change, which may indicate that they differ in colonization modes. Broadly, we have confirmed that the increased short-term fluctuations in temperatures are always expected to alter the gut microbiota of ectothermic vertebrates when facing global climate change.

Seasonal Phenology and Climate Associated Feeding Activity of Introduced Marchalina hellenica in Southeast Australia

Invasive insects pose an increasing risk to global agriculture, environmental stability, and public health. Giant pine scale (GPS), Marchalina hellenica Gennadius (Hemiptera: Marchalinidae), is a phloem feeding scale insect endemic to the Eastern Mediterranean Basin, where it primarily feeds on Pinus halepensis and other Pinaceae. In 2014, GPS was detected in the southeast of Melbourne, Victoria, Australia, infesting the novel host Pinus radiata. An eradication program was unsuccessful, and with this insect now established within the state, containment and management efforts are underway to stop its spread; however, there remains a need to understand the insect's phenology and behaviour in Australia to better inform control efforts. We documented the annual life cycle and seasonal fluctuations in activity of GPS in Australia over a 32 month period at two contrasting field sites. Onset and duration of life stages were comparable to seasons in Mediterranean conspecifics, although the results imply the timing of GPS life stage progression is broadening or accelerating. GPS density was higher in Australia compared to Mediterranean reports, possibly due to the absence of key natural predators, such as the silver fly, Neoleucopis kartliana Tanasijtshuk (Diptera, Chamaemyiidae). Insect density and honeydew production in the Australian GPS population studied varied among locations and between generations. Although insect activity was well explained by climate, conditions recorded inside infested bark fissures often provided the weakest explanation of GPS activity. Our findings suggest that GPS activity is strongly influenced by climate, and this may in part be related to changes in host quality. An improved understanding of how our changing climate is influencing the phenology of phloem feeding insects such as GPS will help with predictions as to where these insects are likely to flourish and assist with management programs for pest species.

Acclimation of thermal physiology to new basking regimes in a widespread Australian skink

Changes in thermal environments are a challenge for many ectotherms, as they would have to acclimate their physiology to new thermal environments to maintain high-levels of performance. Time spent basking is key for many ectothermic animals to keep their body temperature within optimal thermal ranges. However, little is known about the impact of changes in basking time on the thermal physiology of ectothermic animals. We investigated how different basking regimes (low intensity vs high intensity) affected key thermal physiological traits of a widespread Australian skink (Lampropholis delicata). We quantified thermal performance curves and thermal preferences of skinks subjected to low and high intensity basking regimes over a 12-week period. We found that skinks acclimated their thermal performance breadth in both basking regimes, with the skinks from the low-intensity basking regime showing narrower performance breadths. Although maximum velocity and optimum temperatures increased after the acclimation period, these traits did not differ between basking regimes. Similarly, no variation was detected for thermal preference. These results provide insight into mechanisms that allow these skinks to successfully overcome environmental constraints in the field. Acclimation of thermal performance curves seems to be key for widespread species to colonise new environments, and can buffer ectothermic animals in novel climatic scenarios.

Surviving on the edge: present and future effects of climate warming on the common frog (Rana temporaria) population in the Montseny massif (NE Iberia)

The Montseny massif shelters the southernmost western populations of common frogs (Rana temporaria) that live in a Mediterranean climate, one which poses a challenge for the species' persistence in a scenario of rising temperatures. We evaluated the effect of climate change at three levels. First, we analysed if there has been an advancement in the onset of spawning period due to the increase in temperatures. Second, we analysed the impact of climatic variables on the onset of the spawning period and, third, how the distribution of this species could vary according to the predictions with regard to rising temperatures for the end of this century. From 2009 to 2021, we found there had been an increase in temperatures of 0.439 °C/decade, more than the 0.1 °C indicated by estimates for the second half of the previous century. We found an advancement in the onset of the reproduction process of 26 days/decade for the period 2009-2022, a change that has been even more marked during the last eight years, when data were annually recorded. Minimum temperatures and the absence of frost days in the week prior to the onset of the spawning period determine the start of reproduction. Predictions on habitat availability for spawning provided by climatic niche analysis for the period 2021-2100 show a potential contraction of the species range in the Montseny and, remarkably, much isolation from the neighbouring populations.

Developmental plasticity in thermal tolerance: Ontogenetic variation, persistence, and future directions

Understanding the factors affecting thermal tolerance is crucial for predicting the impact climate change will have on ectotherms. However, the role developmental plasticity plays in allowing populations to cope with thermal extremes is poorly understood. Here, we meta-analyse how thermal tolerance is initially and persistently impacted by early (embryonic and juvenile) thermal environments by using data from 150 experimental studies on 138 ectothermic species. Thermal tolerance only increased by 0.13°C per 1°C change in developmental temperature and substantial variation in plasticity (~36%) was the result of shared evolutionary history and species ecology. Aquatic ectotherms were more than three times as plastic as terrestrial ectotherms. Notably, embryos expressed weaker but more heterogenous plasticity than older life stages, with numerous responses appearing as non-adaptive. While developmental temperatures did not have persistent effects on thermal tolerance overall, persistent effects were vastly under-studied, and their direction and magnitude varied with ontogeny. Embryonic stages may represent a critical window of vulnerability to changing environments and we urge researchers to consider early life stages when assessing the climate vulnerability of ectotherms. Overall, our synthesis suggests that developmental changes in thermal tolerance rarely reach levels of perfect compensation and may provide limited benefit in changing environments.

Effect of climate on strategies of nest and body temperature regulation in paper wasps, Polistes biglumis and Polistes gallicus

Polistes paper wasps are a widespread taxon inhabiting various climates. They build nests in the open without a protective outer layer, which makes them vulnerable to changing temperatures. To better understand the options they have to react to environmental variation and climate change, we here compare the thermoregulatory behavior of Polistes biglumis from cool Alpine climate with Polistes gallicus from warm Mediterranean climate. Behavioral plasticity helps both of them to withstand environmental variation. P. biglumis builds the nests oriented toward east-south-east to gain solar heat of the morning sun. This increases the brood temperature considerably above the ambience, which speeds up brood development. P. gallicus, by contrast, mostly avoids nesting sites with direct insolation, which protects their brood from heat stress on hot days. To keep the brood temperature below 40–42 °C on warm days, the adults of the two species show differential use of their common cooling behaviors. While P. biglumis prefers fanning of cool ambient air onto the nest heated by the sun and additionally cools with water drops, P. gallicus prefers cooling with water drops because fanning of warm ambient air onto a warm nest would not cool it, and restricts fanning to nests heated by the sun.

Modeling Temperature-Dependent Development Rate in Insects and Implications of Experimental Design

Characterizing the temperature-dependent development rate requires empirical data acquired by rearing individuals at different temperatures. Many mathematical models can be fitted to empirical data, making model comparison a mandatory step, yet model selection practices widely vary. We present guidelines for model selection using statistical criteria and the assessment of biological relevance of fits, exemplified throughout a Lepidoptera pest dataset. We also used in silico experiments to explore how experimental design and species attributes impact estimation accuracy of biological traits. Our results suggested that the uncertainty in model predictions was mostly determined by the rearing effort and the variance in development times of individuals. We found that a higher number of tested temperatures instead of a higher sample size per temperature may lead to more accurate estimations of model parameters. Our simulations suggested that an inappropriate model choice can lead to biased estimated values of biological traits (defined as attributes of temperature dependent development rate, i.e., optimal temperature for development and critical thresholds), highlighting the need for standardized model selection methods. Therefore, our results have direct implications for future studies on the temperature-dependent development rate of insects.

Negative carry-over effects on larval thermal tolerances across a natural thermal gradient

Under climate change, marine organisms will need to tolerate or adapt to increasing temperatures to persist. The ability of populations to cope with thermal stress may be influenced by conditions experienced by parents, by both genetic changes and transgenerational phenotypic plasticity through epigenetics or maternal provisioning. In organisms with complex life cycles, larval stages are particularly vulnerable to stress. Positive parental carry-over effects occur if more stressful parental environments yield more tolerant offspring while the opposite pattern leads to negative carry-over effects. This study evaluated the role of parental effects in determining larval thermal tolerances for the intertidal mussel, Mytilus californianus. We tested whether thermal environments across a natural gradient (shoreline elevation) impacted mussel temperature tolerances. Lethal thermal limits were compared for field-collected adults and their larvae. We observed parental effects across one generation, in which adult mussels exposed to warmer habitats yielded less tolerant offspring. Interestingly, although parental environments influenced offspring tolerances, we found no clear effects of habitat conditions on adult phenotypes (tolerances). We found indicators of trade-offs in energy investment, with higher reproductive condition and larger egg diameters in low stress environments. These results suggest that parental effects are negative, leading to possible adverse effects of thermal stress on the next generation.

Towards understanding Cameraria ohridella (Lepidoptera: Gracillariidae) development: effects of microhabitat variability in naturally growing horse-chestnut tree canopy

Dwelling intensity of horse-chestnut miner (Cameraria ohridella) larvae in various leaves insolation and temperature was measured to determine whether this pest's development follows a predictable pattern or depends more on local microenvironment conditions. Mines growing on leaves of mature host plants (Aesculus hippocastanum L.) in their natural conditions were photographed for two consecutive generations of the pest and in two separated vegetation periods. Apart from meteorological data obtained from the nearest station, the temperature of intact and mined parts of sun-exposed and shaded leaf blades was measured at various daytimes throughout the experiment. Obtained sets of digital data were analysed and combined to model mine area growth as a function of degree-days sum by adopting of Verhulst logistic equation. We showed the predictive potential of our model based on experimental data, and it may be useful in the scheduling of pest control measures in natural conditions. Our analyses also revealed that despite significant differences in microenvironment conditions depending on mines' insolation, the horse-chestnut miner larvae could partially compensate for them and complete their development at similar endpoints expressed as the cumulative sum of degree-days. We conclude that computer-aided analysis of photographic documentation of leaf-miner larval growth followed by mathematical modelling offers a noninvasive, reliable, and inexpensive alternative for monitoring local leaf-miners populations.

Developmental Temperature Affects Life-History Traits and Heat Tolerance in the Aphid Parasitoid Aphidius colemani

Developmental temperature plays important roles in the expression of insect traits through thermal developmental plasticity. We exposed the aphid parasitoid Aphidius colemani to different temperature regimes (10, 20, or 28 °C) throughout larval development and studied the expression of morphological and physiological traits indicator of fitness and heat tolerance in the adult. We showed that the mass decreased and the surface to volume ratio of parasitoids increased with the development temperature. Water content was not affected by rearing temperature, but parasitoids accumulated more lipids when reared at 20 °C. Egg content was not affected by developmental temperature, but adult survival was better for parasitoids reared at 20 °C. Finally, parasitoids developed at 20 °C showed the highest heat stupor threshold, whereas parasitoids developed at 28 °C showed the highest heat coma threshold (better heat tolerance CTmax1 and CTmax2, respectively), therefore only partly supporting the beneficial acclimation hypothesis. From a fundamental point of view, our study highlights the role of thermal plasticity (adaptive or not) on the expression of different life history traits in insects and the possible correlations that exist between these traits. From an applied perspective, these results are important in the context of biological control through mass release techniques of parasitoids in hot environments.

How useful are thermal vulnerability indices?

To forecast climate change impacts across habitats or taxa, thermal vulnerability indices (e.g., safety margins and warming tolerances) are growing in popularity. Here, we present their history, context, formulation, and current applications. We highlight discrepancies in terminology and usage, and we draw attention to key assumptions underpinning the main indices and to their ecological and evolutionary relevance. In the process, we flag biases influencing these indices that are not always evaluated. These biases affect both components of index formulations, namely: (i) the characterisation of the thermal environment; and (ii) an organism's physiological and behavioural responses to more frequent and severe warming. Presently, many outstanding questions weaken a thermal vulnerability index approach. We describe ways to validate vulnerability index applications and outline issues to be considered in further developing these indices.

The Impact of Phloem Feeding Insects on Leaf Ecophysiology Varies With Leaf Age

Herbivore insects have strong impacts on leaf gas exchange when feeding on the plant. Leaf age also drives leaf gas exchanges but the interaction of leaf age and phloem herbivory has been largely underexplored. We investigated the amplitude and direction of herbivore impact on leaf gas exchange across a wide range of leaf age in the apple tree-apple green aphid (Aphis pomi) system. We measured the gas exchange (assimilation and transpiration rates, stomatal conductance and internal CO₂ concentration) of leaves infested versus non-infested by the aphid across leaf age. For very young leaves up to 15 days-old, the gas exchange rates of infested leaves were similar to those of non-infested leaves. After few days, photosynthesis, stomatal conductance and transpiration rate increased in infested leaves up to about the age of 30 days, and gradually decreased after that age. By contrast, gas exchanges in non-infested leaves gradually decreased across leaf age such that they were always lower than in infested leaves. Aphids were observed on relatively young leaves up to 25 days and despite the positive effect on leaf photosynthesis and leaf performance, their presence negatively affected the growth rate of apple seedlings. Indeed, aphids decreased leaf dry mass, leaf surface, and leaf carbon content except in old leaves. By contrast, aphids induced an increase in leaf nitrogen content and the deviation relative to non-infested leaves increased with leaf age. Overall, the impacts of aphids at multiple levels of plant performance depend on leaf age. While aphids cause an increase in some leaf traits (gas exchanges and nitrogen content), they also depress others (plant growth rate and carbon content). The balance between those effects, as modulated by leaf age, may be the key for herbivory mitigation in plants.

Diminished warming tolerance and plasticity in low-latitude populations of a marine gastropod

Models of species response to climate change often assume that physiological traits are invariant across populations. Neglecting potential intraspecific variation may overlook the possibility that some populations are more resilient or susceptible than others, creating inaccurate predictions of climate impacts. In addition, phenotypic plasticity can contribute to trait variation and may mediate sensitivity to climate. Quantifying such forms of intraspecific variation can improve our understanding of how climate can affect ecologically important species, such as invasive predators. Here, we quantified thermal performance (tolerance, acclimation capacity, developmental traits) across seven populations of the predatory marine snail (Urosalpinx cinerea) from native Atlantic and non-native Pacific coast populations in the USA. Using common garden experiments, we assessed the effects of source population and developmental acclimation on thermal tolerance and developmental traits of F1 snails. We then estimated climate sensitivity by calculating warming tolerance (thermal tolerance - habitat temperature), using field environmental data. We report that low-latitude populations had greater thermal tolerance than their high latitude counterparts. However, these same low-latitude populations exhibited decreased thermal tolerance when exposed to environmentally realistic higher acclimation temperatures. Low-latitude native populations had the greatest climate sensitivity (habitat temperatures near thermal limits). In contrast, invasive Pacific snails had the lowest climate sensitivity, suggesting that these populations are likely to persist and drive negative impacts on native biodiversity. Developmental rate significantly increased in embryos sourced from populations with greater habitat temperature but had variable effects on clutch size and hatching success. Thus, warming can produce widely divergent responses within the same species, resulting in enhanced impacts in the non-native range and extirpation in the native range. Broadly, our results highlight how intraspecific variation can alter management decisions, as this may clarify whether management efforts should be focused on many or only a few populations.

When insect pests build their own thermal niche: The hot nest of the pine processionary moth

Temperature strongly drives physiological and ecological processes in ectotherms. While many species rely on behavioural thermoregulation to avoid thermal extremes, others build structures (nests) that confer a shelter against climate variability and extremes. However, the microclimate inside nests remains unknown for most insects. We investigated the thermal environment inside the nest of a temperate winter-developing insect species, the pine processionary moth (PPM), Thaumetopoea pityocampa. Gregarious larvae collectively build a silken nest at the beginning of the cold season. We tested the hypothesis that it provides a warmer microenvironment to larvae. First, we monitored temperature inside different types of nests varying in the number of larvae inside. Overall, nest temperature was positively correlated to global radiation and air temperature. At noon, when global radiation was maximal, nest temperature exceeded air temperature by up to 11.2-16.5 °C depending on nest type. In addition, thermal gradients of amplitude from 6.85 to 15.5 °C were observed within nests, the upper part being the warmest. Second, we developed a biophysical model to predict temperature inside PPM nests based on heat transfer equations and to explain this important temperature excess. A simple model version accurately predicted experimental measurements, confirming that nest temperature is driven mainly by radiation load. Finally, the model showed that nest temperature increases at the same rate as air temperature change. We conclude that some pest insects already live in warm microclimates by building their own sheltering nest. This effect should be considered when studying the impact of climate change on phenology and distribution.

Disease Vector Relative Spatio-Temporal Abundances to Water Bodies and Thermal Fitness Across Malaria Endemic Semi-Arid Areas

The biophysical environment plays an important role in the spatio-temporal abundance and distribution of mosquitoes. This has implications for the spread of vectors and diseases they cause across diverse landscapes. Here, we assessed vector mosquito abundances in relation to large water bodies, from three malaria districts in a semi-arid environment. Furthermore, we explored thermal limits to activity of the dominant and most medically important malaria vector across malaria-endemic areas. Mosquitoes were trapped near permanent water bodies across different districts. Critical thermal limits (critical thermal-maxima and -minima) to activity of wild adults and 4th instar larvae Anopheles arabiensis (Diptera: Culicidae) were assessed. Our results showed that Anopheles spp. dominate mosquito communities across all three districts, but that their numbers were far greater in Okavango than in other regions. At the Okavango sites, the numbers of Anopheles spp. decreased with distance from main water source. Anopheles spp. sampled in this region comprised Anopheles gambiae (Giles,1902) and Anopheles funestus (Giles, 1900) species complexes, with the former dominating in numbers. Thermal activity assays showed An. arabiensis females had wider thermal tolerance windows than males while larval thermal activity limits differed significantly across space. These results confirm that the Okavango district should be prioritized for vector control measures. Moreover, intervention strategies should consider recommendations for proximity effects to large water bodies, given the differential risk associated with distance from water. The wider thermal window on female vectors has implications for possible future malaria transmission and diverse habitat utilization under changing environments.

Microgeography, Not Just Latitude, Drives Climate Overlap on Mountains from Tropical to Polar Ecosystems

AbstractAn extension of the climate variability hypothesis is that relatively stable climate, such as that of the tropics, induces distinct thermal bands across elevation that render dispersal over tropical mountains difficult compared with temperate mountains. Yet ecosystems are not thermally static in space-time, especially at small scales, which might render some mountains greater thermal isolators than others. Here we provide an extensive investigation of temperature drivers from fine to coarse scales, and we demonstrate that the degree of similarity in temperatures at high and low elevations on mountains is driven by more than just absolute mountain height and latitude. We compiled a database of 29 mountains spanning six continents to characterize thermal overlap by vertically stratified microhabitats and biomes and owing to seasonal changes in foliage, demonstrating via mixed effects modeling that micro- and mesogeography more strongly influence thermal overlap than macrogeography. Impressively, an increase of 1 m of vertical microhabitat height generates an increase in overlap equivalent to a 5.26° change in latitude. In addition, forested mountains have reduced thermal overlap-149% lower-relative to nonforested mountains. We provide evidence in support of a climate hypothesis that emphasizes microgeography as a determinant of dispersal, demographics, and behavior, thereby refining the classical theory of macroclimate variability as a prominent driver of biogeography.

Survive a Warming Climate: Insect Responses to Extreme High Temperatures

Global change includes a substantial increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme high temperatures (EHTs), which influence insects at almost all levels. The number of studies showing the ecological importance of EHTs has risen in recent years, but the knowledge is rather dispersed in the contemporary literature. In this article, we review the biological and ecological effects of EHTs actually experienced in the field, i.e., when coupled to fluctuating thermal regimes. First, we characterize EHTs in the field. Then, we summarize the impacts of EHTs on insects at various levels and the processes allowing insects to buffer EHTs. Finally, we argue that the mechanisms leading to positive or negative impacts of EHTs on insects can only be resolved from integrative approaches considering natural thermal regimes. Thermal extremes, perhaps more than the gradual increase in mean temperature, drive insect responses to climate change, with crucial impacts on pest management and biodiversity conservation.

Climate change-mediated temperature extremes and insects: From outbreaks to breakdowns

Insects are among the most diverse and widespread animals across the biosphere and are well-known for their contributions to ecosystem functioning and services. Recent increases in the frequency and magnitude of climatic extremes (CE), in particular temperature extremes (TE) owing to anthropogenic climate change, are exposing insect populations and communities to unprecedented stresses. However, a major problem in understanding insect responses to TE is that they are still highly unpredictable both spatially and temporally, which reduces frequency- or direction-dependent selective responses by insects. Moreover, how species interactions and community structure may change in response to stresses imposed by TE is still poorly understood. Here we provide an overview of how terrestrial insects respond to TE by integrating their organismal physiology, multitrophic, and community-level interactions, and building that up to explore scenarios for population explosions and crashes that have ecosystem-level consequences. We argue that TE can push insect herbivores and their natural enemies to and even beyond their adaptive limits, which may differ among species intimately involved in trophic interactions, leading to phenological disruptions and the structural reorganization of food webs. TE may ultimately lead to outbreak-breakdown cycles in insect communities with detrimental consequences for ecosystem functioning and resilience. Lastly, we suggest new research lines that will help achieve a better understanding of insect and community responses to a wide range of CE.

Thermal performance curves reveal shifts in optima, limits and breadth in early life

Understanding thermal performance at life stages that limit persistence is necessary to predict responses to climate change, especially for ectotherms whose fitness (survival and reproduction) depends on environmental temperature. Ectotherms often undergo stage-specific changes in size, complexity and duration that are predicted to modify thermal performance. Yet performance is mostly explored for adults, while performance at earlier stages that typically limit persistence remains poorly understood. Here, we experimentally isolate thermal performance curves at fertilization, embryo development and larval development stages in an aquatic ectotherm whose early planktonic stages (gametes, embryos and larvae) govern adult abundances and dynamics. Unlike previous studies based on short-term exposures, responses with unclear links to fitness or proxies in lieu of explicit curve descriptors (thermal optima, limits and breadth), we measured performance as successful completion of each stage after exposure throughout, and at temperatures that explicitly capture curve descriptors at all stages. Formal comparisons of descriptors using a combination of generalized linear mixed modelling and parametric bootstrapping reveal important differences among life stages. Thermal performance differs significantly from fertilization to embryo development (with thermal optimum declining by ∼2°C, thermal limits shifting inwards by ∼8-10°C and thermal breadth narrowing by ∼10°C), while performance declines independently of temperature thereafter. Our comparisons show that thermal performance at one life stage can misrepresent performance at others, and point to gains in complexity during embryogenesis, rather than subsequent gains in size or duration of exposure, as a key driver of thermal sensitivity in early life.

Forest stratification shapes allometry and flight morphology of tropical butterflies

Studies of altitudinal and latitudinal gradients have identified links between the evolution of insect flight morphology, landscape structure and microclimate. Although lowland tropical rainforests offer steeper shifts in conditions between the canopy and the understorey, this vertical gradient has received far less attention. Butterflies, because of their great phenotypic plasticity, are excellent models to study selection pressures that mould flight morphology. We examined data collected over 5 years on 64 Nymphalidae butterflies in the Ecuadorian Chocó rainforest. We used phylogenetic methods to control for similarity resulting from common ancestry, and explore the relationships between species stratification and flight morphology. We hypothesized that species should show morphological adaptations related to differing micro-environments, associated with canopy and understorey. We found that butterfly species living in each stratum presented significantly different allometric slopes. Furthermore, a preference for the canopy was significantly associated with low wing area to thoracic volume ratios and high wing aspect ratios, but not with the relative distance to the wing centroid, consistent with extended use of fast flapping flight for canopy butterflies and slow gliding for the understorey. Our results suggest that microclimate differences in vertical gradients are a key factor in generating morphological diversity in flying insects.

There is plenty of room at the bottom: microclimates drive insect vulnerability to climate change

Climate warming impacts biological systems profoundly. Climatologists deliver predictions about warming amplitude at coarse scales. Nevertheless, insects are small, and it remains unclear how much of the warming at coarse scales appears in the microclimates where they live. We propose a simple method for determining the pertinent spatial scale of insect microclimates. Recent studies have quantified the ability of forest understory to buffer thermal extremes, but these microclimates typically are characterized at spatial scales much larger than those determined by our method. Indeed, recent evidence supports the idea that insects can be thermally adapted even to fine scale microclimatic patterns, which can be highly variable. Finally, we discuss how microhabitat surfaces may buffer or magnify the amplitude of climate warming.

Microclimate buffering and thermal tolerance across elevations in a tropical butterfly

Microclimatic variability in tropical forests plays a key role in shaping species distributions and their ability to cope with environmental change, especially for ectotherms. Nonetheless, currently available climatic datasets lack data from the forest interior and, furthermore, our knowledge of thermal tolerance among tropical ectotherms is limited. We therefore studied natural variation in the microclimate experienced by tropical butterflies in the genus Heliconius across their Andean range in a single year. We found that the forest strongly buffers temperature and humidity in the understorey, especially in the lowlands, where temperatures are more extreme. There were systematic differences between our yearly records and macroclimate databases (WorldClim2), with lower interpolated minimum temperatures and maximum temperatures higher than expected. We then assessed thermal tolerance of 10 Heliconius butterfly species in the wild and found that populations at high elevations had significantly lower heat tolerance than those at lower elevations. However, when we reared populations of the widespread H. erato from high and low elevations in a common-garden environment, the difference in heat tolerance across elevations was reduced, indicating plasticity in this trait. Microclimate buffering is not currently captured in publicly available datasets, but could be crucial for enabling upland shifting of species sensitive to heat such as highland Heliconius Plasticity in thermal tolerance may alleviate the effects of global warming on some widespread ectotherm species, but more research is needed to understand the long-term consequences of plasticity on populations and species.

An “overlooked” habitat for thermophilic bacteria: the phyllosphere

Thermophilic microbes are present everywhere around us and their only known natural biotope is far away and most usually associated with geothermal energy. To answer this paradox, we explore the hypothesis that the phyllosphere (surface of leaves), due to its exposition to the sun, could well be a thermophilic habitat for microbes and thus a source of thermophilic microbes growing around 50°C – 60°C. To support this hypothesis, we reviewed the heat sources on earth and associated microbial habitats, as well as the difficult identification of thermophilic microbes. We further present an experiment to show the presence and activity of thermophilic bacteria in the phyllosphere. Leaves were collected from eleven tree species from five locations on three continents belonging to three different biomes. On fresh leaves, 16S rDNA sequencing reveals the presence of 0.2 to 7% of clearly identified thermophilic bacteria. Moreover, after incubation at 55°C under aerobic and anaerobic conditions, 16S rDNA sequencing reveals the presence of 4 to 99% of clearly identified thermophilic bacteria. The accumulation of observations provides coherence to our hypothesis and allows the emergence of a new vision of leaves as a thermophilic biotope. We then propose a life cycle of microbes belonging to the thermophilic biotope associated with leaf surfaces.

Lifetime eurythermy by seasonally matched thermal performance of developmental stages in an annual aquatic insect

Organisms with annual life cycles are exposed to life stage specific thermal environments across seasons. Seasonal variation in thermal environments can vary across years and among sites. We investigated how organisms with annual life cycles respond to predictable seasonal changes in temperature and unpredictable thermal variation between habitats and years throughout their lives. Field surveys and historical records reveal that the spatially and temporally heterogeneous thermal environments inhabited by the annual mayfly Ephemerella maculata (Ephemerellidae) shift the date for transition to the next, life stage, so that the thermal phenotype of each life stage matches the thermal environment of the specific habitat and year. Laboratory studies of three distinct life stages of this mayfly reveal that life stage transitions are temperature dependent, facilitating timing shifts that are synchronized with the current season's temperatures. Each life stage exhibited specific thermal sensitivity and performance phenotypes that matched the ambient temperature typically experienced during that life stage. Our study across the whole life cycle reveals mechanisms that allow organisms to achieve lifetime eurythermy in a dynamic seasonal environment, despite having narrower thermal ranges for growth and development in each life stage.

Life stages differ in plasticity to temperature fluctuations and uniquely contribute to adult phenotype

Adaptive thermal plasticity allows organisms to adjust their physiology to cope with fluctuating environments. However, thermal plasticity is rarely studied in response to thermal variability and is often measured in a single life stage. Plasticity in response to thermal variability likely differs from responses to constant temperatures or acute stress. In addition, life stages likely differ in their plasticity and responses in one stage may be affected by the experiences in a previous stage. Increasing the resolution with which we understand thermal plasticity in response to thermal variation across ontogeny is crucial to understanding how organisms cope with the thermal variation in their environment and to estimating the capacity of plasticity to mitigate costs of rapid environmental change. We wanted to know if life stages differ in their capacity for thermal plasticity under temperature fluctuations. We reared Onthophagus taurus dung beetles in either low or high temperature fluctuation treatments and quantified thermal plasticity of metabolism of pupae and adults. We found that adults were thermally plastic and pupae were not. Next, we wanted to know if the plasticity observed in the adult life stage was affected by the thermal conditions during development. We again used low and high temperature fluctuation treatments and reared individuals in one condition through all egg to pupal stages. At eclosion, we switched half of the individuals in each treatment to the opposite fluctuation condition and, later, measured thermal plasticity of metabolism on adults. We found that temperature conditions experienced during the adult stage, but not egg to pupal stages, affects adult thermal plasticity. However, temperature fluctuations during development affect adult body size, suggesting that some aspects of the adult phenotype are decoupled from previous life stages and others are not. Our data demonstrate that life stages mount different responses to temperature variability and uniquely contribute to the adult phenotype. These findings emphasize the need to broadly integrate the life cycle into studies of phenotypic plasticity and physiology; doing so should enhance our ability to predict organismal responses to rapid global change and inform conservation efforts.

Darker ants dominate the canopy: Testing macroecological hypotheses for patterns in colour along a microclimatic gradient

Gradients in cuticle lightness of ectotherms have been demonstrated across latitudes and elevations. Three key hypotheses have been used to explain these macroecological patterns: the thermal melanism hypothesis (TMH), the melanism‐desiccation hypothesis (MDH) and the photo‐protection hypothesis (PPH). Yet the broad abiotic measures, such as temperature, humidity and UV‐B radiation, typically used to detect these ecogeographical patterns, are a poor indication of the microenvironment experienced by small, cursorial ectotherms like ants.

We tested whether these macroecological hypotheses explaining cuticle lightness held at habitat and microclimatic level by using a vertical gradient within a tropical rainforest.

We sampled 222 ant species in lowland, tropical rainforest across four vertical strata: subterranean, ground, understory and canopy. We recorded cuticle lightness, abundance and estimated body size for each species and calculated an assemblage‐weighted mean for cuticle lightness and body size for each vertical stratum. Abiotic variables (air temperature, vapour pressure deficit and UV‐B radiation) were recorded for each vertical stratum.

We found that cuticle lightness of ant assemblages was vertically stratified: ant assemblages in the canopy and understory were twice as dark as assemblages in ground and subterranean strata. Cuticle lightness was not correlated with body size, and there was no support for the TMH. Rather, we attribute this cline in cuticle lightness to a combination of the MDH and the PPH.

Our findings indicate that broad macroecological patterns can be detected at much smaller spatial scales and that microclimatic gradients can shape trait variation, specifically the cuticle lightness of ants. These results suggest that any changes to microclimate that occur due to land‐use change or climate warming could drive selection of ants based on cuticle colour, altering assemblage structure and potentially ecosystem functioning.

Oxygen Limitation Does Not Drive the Decreasing Heat Tolerance of Grasshoppers during Development

Thermal physiology changes as organisms grow and develop, but we do not understand what causes these ontogenetic shifts. According to the theory of oxygen- and capacity-limited thermal tolerance, an organism's heat tolerance should change throughout ontogeny as its ability to deliver oxygen varies. As insects grow during an instar, their metabolic demand increases without a proportional increase in the size of tracheae that supply oxygen to the tissues. If oxygen delivery limits heat tolerance, the mismatch between supply and demand should make insects more susceptible to heat and hypoxia as they progress through an instar. We tested this hypothesis by measuring the heat tolerance of grasshoppers (Schistocerca americana) on the second and seventh days of the sixth instar, in either a normoxic or a hypoxic atmosphere (21% or 10% O₂, respectively). As expected, heat tolerance decreased as grasshoppers grew larger. Yet contrary to expectation, hypoxia had no effect on heat tolerance across all stages and sizes. Although heat tolerance declines as grasshoppers grow, this pattern must stem from a mechanism other than oxygen limitation.

The body temperature of active desert anurans from hyper-arid environment of South America: The reliability of WorldClim for predicted body temperatures in anurans

The temperature of anuran activity from arid regions have been poorly studied. In recent years, the emphasis was placed on predicting the impacts of global warming on the fauna of ectotherms in general. Many times future impacts are predicted based on global thermal information (macroscale) but not on an individual scale. We used literature data about body temperature in anurans that inhabit the desert region of the Northwest of Argentina to analyze the role of the elevation, eco-region and substrate temperature on the individual scale. Also, we evaluated the predictive capacity that global environmental variables obtained from WorldClim for this region, and compared them with those of local scale. Our results showed that the activity body temperature of the toads in the arid region of western Argentina strongly influenced by elevation and the substrate temperature on the individual scale. We observed that data of the global scale (WorldClim) can predict the body temperature of the studied amphibians, but with a deviation, not less than 8 °C. According to our results, it is evident that to making reliable predictions of how global warming impacts on amphibians in the region, the environmental temperature data need to be recorded at the local scale (operative temperatures).

Integrating mechanistic and correlative niche models to unravel range-limiting processes in a temperate amphibian

Insights into the causal mechanisms that limit species distributions are likely to improve our ability to anticipate species range shifts in response to climate change. For species with complex life histories, a mechanistic understanding of how climate affects different lifecycle stages may be crucial for making accurate forecasts. Here, we use mechanistic niche modeling (NicheMapR) to derive "proximate" (mechanistic) variables for tadpole, juvenile, and adult Rana temporaria. We modeled the hydroperiod, and maximum and minimum temperatures of shallow (30 cm) ponds, as well as activity windows for juveniles and adults. We then used those ("proximate") variables in correlative ecological niche models (Maxent) to assess their role in limiting the species' current distribution, and to investigate the potential effects of climate change on R. temporaria across Europe. We further compared the results with a model based on commonly used macroclimatic ("distal") layers (i.e., bioclimatic layers from WorldClim). The maximum temperature of the warmest month (a macroclimatic variable) and maximum pond temperatures (a mechanistic variable) were the most important range-limiting factors, and maximum temperature thresholds were consistent with the observed upper thermal limit of R. temporaria tadpoles. We found that range shift forecasts in central Europe are far more pessimistic when using distal macroclimatic variables, compared to projections based on proximate mechanistic variables. However, both approaches predicted extensive decreases in climatic suitability in southern Europe, which harbors a significant fraction of the species' genetic diversity. We show how mechanistic modeling provides ways to depict gridded layers that directly reflect the microenvironments experienced by organisms at continental scales, and to reconstruct those predictors without extrapolation under novel future conditions. Furthermore, incorporating those predictors in correlative ecological niche models can help shed light on range-limiting processes, and can have substantial impacts on predictions of climate-induced range shifts.

The importance of timing of heat events for predicting the dynamics of aphid pest populations

BACKGROUND

Heatwaves are increasing in frequency and there is growing interest in their impact on pest organisms. Previous work indicates that effects depend on the timing of the stress event, whose impact needs to be characterized across the full set of developmental stages and exposure periods of an organism. Here, we undertake such a detailed assessment using heat stress (20-35 °C diurnal cycle) across the nymph and adult stages of the English grain aphid, Sitobion avenae (Fabricius).

RESULTS

Stress-related mortality increased with stress duration at all stages; effects were less severe at the late nymphal stage. Effects on longevity adults after stress showed a complex pattern with nymphal heat stress, increasing with stress duration at the late nymphal stage, but decreasing with duration at the early nymphal stage. Longevity was also reduced by adult stress although to a lesser extent, and patterns were not connected to duration. Post-stress productivity decreased following adult and nymphal stress and the decrease tended to be correlated with stress duration. The rate of offspring production was more affected by adult stress than nymphal stress. Productivity and longevity effects, when combined, showed that the largest effect of heat stress occurred at the early nymphal stage.

CONCLUSION

These findings highlight the complex ways in which heat stress at a particular life stage influences later fitness and they also emphasize the importance of considering multiple fitness components when assessing stress effects. © 2019 Society of Chemical Industry.

Interactive effects of experimental heating rates, ontogeny and body mass on the upper thermal limits of anuran larvae

Biological and methodological factors influence the upper thermal limits (UTL) of ectothermic animals, but most factors have been studied independently. Few studies have integrated variables, so our understanding about sources of UTL variation remains fragmentary. Thereby, we investigated synergic effects of experimental protocols (heating rates, ΔTs) and biological factors (ontogeny and body mass) on the UTL on the larvae of two anuran species (Physalaemus nattereri and Boana pardalis), specifically their Critical Thermal Maximum (CT_max). The species displayed slightly different responses to ΔTs: In B. pardalis tadpoles both average and variance of CT_max increased at a fastest ΔT, the same response happened in P. nattereri tadpoles at slow and moderate ΔTs. Also, the CT_max of P. nattereri declined at the end of metamorphosis independently of ΔT, but tadpoles at all developmental stages still displayed higher heat tolerance at the slow ΔT. Finally, we detected small, synergic effects of body mass and ΔTs on the CT_max of both species. In small B. pardalis tadpoles and premetamorphic P. nattereri tadpoles, body mass had a positive effect on CT_max, but only at slow and moderate ΔTs, probably indicating physiological responses. A similar trend was observed in large B. pardalis tadpoles at the fast ΔT, but this result is likely to be influenced by thermal inertia. Our findings contribute to integrate the understanding of factors influencing UTL in small ectothermic animals. This understanding is critical to discuss the physiological component of vulnerability to climate change that is related to acute temperatures.

Narrow safety margin in the phyllosphere during thermal extremes

The thermal limits of terrestrial ectotherms vary more locally than globally. Local microclimatic variations can explain this pattern, but the underlying mechanisms remain unclear. We show that cryptic microclimatic variations at the scale of a single leaf determine the thermal limit in a community of arthropod herbivores living on the same host plant. Herbivores triggering an increase in transpiration, thereby cooling the leaf, had a lower thermal limit than those decreasing leaf transpiration and causing the leaf to warm up. These subtle mechanisms have major consequences for the safety margin of these herbivores during thermal extremes. Our findings suggest that temperate species may be more vulnerable to heat waves than previously thought.

The thermal limit of ectotherms provides an estimate of vulnerability to climate change. It differs between contrasting microhabitats, consistent with thermal ecology predictions that a species’ temperature sensitivity matches the microclimate it experiences. However, observed thermal limits may differ between ectotherms from the same environment, challenging this theory. We resolved this apparent paradox by showing that ectotherm activity generates microclimatic deviations large enough to account for differences in thermal limits between species from the same microhabitat. We studied upper lethal temperature, effect of feeding mode on plant gas exchange, and temperature of attacked leaves in a community of six arthropod species feeding on apple leaves. Thermal limits differed by up to 8 °C among the species. Species that caused an increase in leaf transpiration (+182%), thus cooling the leaf, had a lower thermal limit than those that decreased leaf transpiration (−75%), causing the leaf to warm up. Therefore, cryptic microclimatic variations at the scale of a single leaf determine the thermal limit in this community of herbivores. We investigated the consequences of these changes in plant transpiration induced by plant–insect feedbacks for species vulnerability to thermal extremes. Warming tolerance was similar between species, at ±2 °C, providing little margin for resisting increasingly frequent and intense heat waves. The thermal safety margin (the difference between thermal limit and temperature) was greatly overestimated when air temperature or intact leaf temperature was erroneously used. We conclude that feedback processes define the vulnerability of species in the phyllosphere, and beyond, to thermal extremes.

Variation in adult stress resistance does not explain vulnerability to climate change in copper butterflies

Ongoing climate change is a major threat to biodiversity. However, although many species clearly suffer from ongoing climate change, others benefit from it, for example, by showing range expansions. However, which specific features determine a species' vulnerability to climate change? Phenotypic plasticity, which has been described as the first line of defence against environmental change, may be of utmost importance here. Against this background, we here compare plasticity in stress tolerance in 3 copper butterfly species, which differ arguably in their vulnerability to climate change. Specifically, we investigated heat, cold and desiccation resistance after acclimatization to different temperatures in the adult stage. We demonstrate that acclimation at a higher temperature increased heat but decreased cold tolerance and desiccation resistance. Contrary to our predictions, species did not show pronounced variation in stress resistance, though plastic capacities in temperature stress resistance did vary across species. Overall, our results seemed to reflect population-rather than species-specific patterns. We conclude that the geographical origin of the populations used should be considered even in comparative studies. However, our results suggest that, in the 3 species studied here, vulnerability to climate change is not in the first place determined by stress resistance in the adult stage. As entomological studies focus all too often on adults only, we argue that more research effort should be dedicated to other developmental stages when trying to understand insect responses to environmental change.