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Horpiencharoen W, Marshall JC, Muylaert RL, John RS, Hayman DTS. Impact of infectious diseases on wild bovidae populations in Thailand: insights from population modelling and disease dynamics. J R Soc Interface 2024; 21:20240278. [PMID: 38955228 DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2024.0278] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/03/2023] [Accepted: 06/10/2024] [Indexed: 07/04/2024] Open
Abstract
The wildlife and livestock interface is vital for wildlife conservation and habitat management. Infectious diseases maintained by domestic species may impact threatened species such as Asian bovids, as they share natural resources and habitats. To predict the population impact of infectious diseases with different traits, we used stochastic mathematical models to simulate the population dynamics over 100 years for 100 times in a model gaur (Bos gaurus) population with and without disease. We simulated repeated introductions from a reservoir, such as domestic cattle. We selected six bovine infectious diseases; anthrax, bovine tuberculosis, haemorrhagic septicaemia, lumpy skin disease, foot and mouth disease and brucellosis, all of which have caused outbreaks in wildlife populations. From a starting population of 300, the disease-free population increased by an average of 228% over 100 years. Brucellosis with frequency-dependent transmission showed the highest average population declines (-97%), with population extinction occurring 16% of the time. Foot and mouth disease with frequency-dependent transmission showed the lowest impact, with an average population increase of 200%. Overall, acute infections with very high or low fatality had the lowest impact, whereas chronic infections produced the greatest population decline. These results may help disease management and surveillance strategies support wildlife conservation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wantida Horpiencharoen
- Molecular Epidemiology and Public Health Laboratory, Hopkirk Research Institute, Massey University, Palmerston North 4472, New Zealand
| | - Jonathan C Marshall
- Molecular Epidemiology and Public Health Laboratory, Hopkirk Research Institute, Massey University, Palmerston North 4472, New Zealand
| | - Renata L Muylaert
- Molecular Epidemiology and Public Health Laboratory, Hopkirk Research Institute, Massey University, Palmerston North 4472, New Zealand
| | - Reju Sam John
- Molecular Epidemiology and Public Health Laboratory, Hopkirk Research Institute, Massey University, Palmerston North 4472, New Zealand
| | - David T S Hayman
- Molecular Epidemiology and Public Health Laboratory, Hopkirk Research Institute, Massey University, Palmerston North 4472, New Zealand
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2
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Nol P, Frey R, Wehtje M, Rhyan J, Clarke PR, McCollum M, Quance C, Eckery D, Robbe-Austerman S. Effects of Pregnancy Prevention on Brucella abortus Shedding in American bison (Bison bison). J Wildl Dis 2024; 60:327-338. [PMID: 38385992 DOI: 10.7589/jwd-d-21-00167] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/27/2021] [Accepted: 10/10/2023] [Indexed: 02/23/2024]
Abstract
Products of parturition are the predominant source of Brucella abortus for transmission in bison (Bison bison). Our objective was to assess whether preventing pregnancy in Brucella-seropositive bison reduced B. abortus shedding. Brucella-seropositive and -seronegative bison from Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming, USA were used in a replicated experiment. Each of two replicates (rep1, rep2) included a group of seropositive females treated with a single dose of gonadotropin-releasing hormone-based immunocontraceptive (Treatment rep1, n=15; Treatment rep2, n=20) and an untreated group (Control rep1, n=14; Control rep2, n=16) housed separately. Seronegative sentinel females were placed in each group to monitor horizontal transmission. Seronegative males were co-mingled for breeding each year. Pregnant females were removed from treatment groups in the first year, but not thereafter. Each January-June we monitored for B. abortus shedding events-any parturition associated with culture-positive fluids or tissues. We analyzed probability of shedding events using a negative binomial generalized linear mixed model fit by maximum likelihood using Laplace approximation. Over 5 yr, we observed zero shedding events in Treatment rep1 vs. 12 in Control rep1. All five Control rep1 sentinels but zero (0/5) Treatment rep1 sentinels seroconverted. In the second replicate, Treatment rep2 had two shedding events over 3 yr and Control rep2 had five events over 2 yr. Sentinels in both Control rep2 (3/6) and Treatment rep2 (5/6) seroconverted by trial endpoint. Treatment rep1 showed a reduced shedding probability relative to Control rep1, Treatment rep2, and Control rep2 (log odds value -25.36 vs. -1.71, -1.39, and -0.23, respectively). Fixed effect predictor covariates, year and age, had no explanatory value. These data suggest that successful contraception of brucellosis-seropositive female bison prevents shedding of B. abortus by individual animals. However, contraceptive treatment may or may not sufficiently reduce disease transmission to reduce brucellosis prevalence in an affected herd.
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Affiliation(s)
- Pauline Nol
- United States Department of Agriculture, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, Veterinary Services, Center for Epidemiology and Animal Health, 2150 Centre Avenue, Building B, Fort Collins, Colorado 80526, USA
- Current address: Colorado Division of Parks and Wildlife, Wildlife Health Program, 4330 Laporte Avenue, Fort Collins, Colorado 80521, USA
| | - Rebecca Frey
- United States Department of Agriculture, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, Veterinary Services, PO Box 253, Manhattan, Montana 59741, USA
| | - Morgan Wehtje
- United States Department of Agriculture, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, Veterinary Services, Center for Epidemiology and Animal Health, 2150 Centre Avenue, Building B, Fort Collins, Colorado 80526, USA
- Current address: Capitol Reef National Park, National Park Service, HC 70, Torrey, Utah 84775, USA
| | - Jack Rhyan
- United States Department of Agriculture, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, Veterinary Services, National Veterinary Services Laboratories, 1920 Dayton Avenue, Ames, Iowa 50010, USA
- Retired
| | - Patrick Ryan Clarke
- United States Department of Agriculture, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, Veterinary Services, PO Box 253, Manhattan, Montana 59741, USA
- Retired
| | - Matthew McCollum
- Colorado State University, Department of Biomedical Sciences, Animal Reproduction and Biomedical Laboratory, 3105 Rampart Road, Fort Collins, Colorado 80521, USA
| | - Christine Quance
- United States Department of Agriculture, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, Veterinary Services, National Veterinary Services Laboratories, 1920 Dayton Avenue, Ames, Iowa 50010, USA
| | - Douglas Eckery
- United States Department of Agriculture, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, Wildlife Services, National Wildlife Research Center, 4101 Laporte Avenue, Fort Collins, Colorado 80521, USA
| | - Suelee Robbe-Austerman
- United States Department of Agriculture, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, Veterinary Services, National Veterinary Services Laboratories, 1920 Dayton Avenue, Ames, Iowa 50010, USA
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3
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Wang Q, Loh JM, He X, Wang Y. A latent state space model for estimating brain dynamics from electroencephalogram (EEG) data. Biometrics 2023; 79:2444-2457. [PMID: 36004670 PMCID: PMC10894450 DOI: 10.1111/biom.13742] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/23/2021] [Accepted: 08/01/2022] [Indexed: 02/03/2023]
Abstract
Modern neuroimaging technologies have substantially advanced the measurement of brain activity. Electroencephalogram (EEG) as a noninvasive neuroimaging technique measures changes in electrical voltage on the scalp induced by brain cortical activity. With its high temporal resolution, EEG has emerged as an increasingly useful tool to study brain connectivity. Challenges with modeling EEG signals of complex brain activity include interactions among unknown sources, low signal-to-noise ratio, and substantial between-subject heterogeneity. In this work, we propose a state space model that jointly analyzes multichannel EEG signals and learns dynamics of different sources corresponding to brain cortical activity. Our model borrows strength from spatially correlated measurements and uses low-dimensional latent states to explain all observed channels. The model can account for patient heterogeneity and quantify the effect of a subject's covariates on the latent space. The EM algorithm, Kalman filtering, and bootstrap resampling are used to fit the state space model and provide comparisons between patient diagnostic groups. We apply the developed approach to a case-control study of alcoholism and reveal significant attenuation of brain activity in response to visual stimuli in alcoholic subjects compared to healthy controls.
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Affiliation(s)
- Qinxia Wang
- Department of Biostatistics, Columbia University, New York, New York, USA
| | - Ji Meng Loh
- Department of Statistics, NJIT, Newark, New Jersey, USA
| | - Xiaofu He
- Department of Psychiatry, Columbia University, New York, New York, USA
| | - Yuanjia Wang
- Department of Biostatistics, Columbia University, New York, New York, USA
- Department of Psychiatry, Columbia University, New York, New York, USA
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4
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Boult VL. Forecast-based action for conservation. CONSERVATION BIOLOGY : THE JOURNAL OF THE SOCIETY FOR CONSERVATION BIOLOGY 2023; 37:e14054. [PMID: 36661067 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.14054] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/21/2022] [Revised: 11/23/2022] [Accepted: 12/21/2022] [Indexed: 05/30/2023]
Abstract
Extreme weather events pose an immediate threat to biodiversity, but existing conservation strategies have limitations. Advances in meteorological forecasting and innovation in the humanitarian sector provide a possible solution-forecast-based action (FbA). The growth of ecological forecasting demonstrates the huge potential to anticipate conservation outcomes, but a lack of operational examples suggests a new approach is needed to translate forecasts into action. FbA provides such a framework, formalizing the use of meteorological forecasts to anticipate and mitigate the impacts of extreme weather. Based on experience from the humanitarian sector, I suggest how FbA could work in conservation, demonstrating key concepts using the theoretical example of heatwave impacts on sea turtle embryo mortality, and address likely challenges in realizing FbA for conservation, including establishing a financing mechanism, allocating funds to actions, and decision-making under uncertainty. FbA will demand changes in conservation research, practice, and governance. Researchers must increase efforts to understand the impacts of extreme weather at more immediate and actionable timescales and should coproduce forecasts of such impacts with practitioners. International conservation funders should establish systems to fund anticipatory actions based on uncertain forecasts.
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Affiliation(s)
- Victoria L Boult
- Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
- National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Reading, UK
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5
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Viana M, Benavides JA, Broos A, Ibañez Loayza D, Niño R, Bone J, da Silva Filipe A, Orton R, Valderrama Bazan W, Matthiopoulos J, Streicker DG. Effects of culling vampire bats on the spatial spread and spillover of rabies virus. SCIENCE ADVANCES 2023; 9:eadd7437. [PMID: 36897949 PMCID: PMC10005164 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.add7437] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 13.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/01/2022] [Accepted: 02/09/2023] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
Controlling pathogen circulation in wildlife reservoirs is notoriously challenging. In Latin America, vampire bats have been culled for decades in hopes of mitigating lethal rabies infections in humans and livestock. Whether culls reduce or exacerbate rabies transmission remains controversial. Using Bayesian state-space models, we show that a 2-year, spatially extensive bat cull in an area of exceptional rabies incidence in Peru failed to reduce spillover to livestock, despite reducing bat population density. Viral whole genome sequencing and phylogeographic analyses further demonstrated that culling before virus arrival slowed viral spatial spread, but reactive culling accelerated spread, suggesting that culling-induced changes in bat dispersal promoted viral invasions. Our findings question the core assumptions of density-dependent transmission and localized viral maintenance that underlie culling bats as a rabies prevention strategy and provide an epidemiological and evolutionary framework to understand the outcomes of interventions in complex wildlife disease systems.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mafalda Viana
- School of Biodiversity, One Health and Veterinary Medicine, College of Medical, Veterinary and Life Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow G12 8QQ, UK
| | - Julio A. Benavides
- School of Biodiversity, One Health and Veterinary Medicine, College of Medical, Veterinary and Life Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow G12 8QQ, UK
- MIVEGEC, IRD, CNRS, Université de Montpellier, Montpellier, France
- Doctorado en Medicina de la Conservación y Centro de Investigación para la Sustentabilidad, Facultad de Ciencias de la Vida, Universidad Andrés Bello, República 440 Santiago, Chile
| | - Alice Broos
- School of Biodiversity, One Health and Veterinary Medicine, College of Medical, Veterinary and Life Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow G12 8QQ, UK
- MRC-University of Glasgow Centre for Virus Research, Glasgow G61 1QH, UK
| | | | - Ruby Niño
- Colegio Médico Veterinario de Apurímac, Abancay, Perú
| | - Jordan Bone
- MRC-University of Glasgow Centre for Virus Research, Glasgow G61 1QH, UK
| | | | - Richard Orton
- MRC-University of Glasgow Centre for Virus Research, Glasgow G61 1QH, UK
| | - William Valderrama Bazan
- ILLARIY (Asociación para el Desarrollo y Conservación de los Recursos Naturales), Lima, Perú
- Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Perú
| | - Jason Matthiopoulos
- School of Biodiversity, One Health and Veterinary Medicine, College of Medical, Veterinary and Life Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow G12 8QQ, UK
| | - Daniel G. Streicker
- School of Biodiversity, One Health and Veterinary Medicine, College of Medical, Veterinary and Life Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow G12 8QQ, UK
- MRC-University of Glasgow Centre for Virus Research, Glasgow G61 1QH, UK
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6
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Lofton ME, Brentrup JA, Beck WS, Zwart JA, Bhattacharya R, Brighenti LS, Burnet SH, McCullough IM, Steele BG, Carey CC, Cottingham KL, Dietze MC, Ewing HA, Weathers KC, LaDeau SL. Using near-term forecasts and uncertainty partitioning to inform prediction of oligotrophic lake cyanobacterial density. ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS : A PUBLICATION OF THE ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 2022; 32:e2590. [PMID: 35343013 PMCID: PMC9287081 DOI: 10.1002/eap.2590] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/03/2021] [Revised: 08/16/2021] [Accepted: 09/16/2021] [Indexed: 06/01/2023]
Abstract
Near-term ecological forecasts provide resource managers advance notice of changes in ecosystem services, such as fisheries stocks, timber yields, or water quality. Importantly, ecological forecasts can identify where there is uncertainty in the forecasting system, which is necessary to improve forecast skill and guide interpretation of forecast results. Uncertainty partitioning identifies the relative contributions to total forecast variance introduced by different sources, including specification of the model structure, errors in driver data, and estimation of current states (initial conditions). Uncertainty partitioning could be particularly useful in improving forecasts of highly variable cyanobacterial densities, which are difficult to predict and present a persistent challenge for lake managers. As cyanobacteria can produce toxic and unsightly surface scums, advance warning when cyanobacterial densities are increasing could help managers mitigate water quality issues. Here, we fit 13 Bayesian state-space models to evaluate different hypotheses about cyanobacterial densities in a low nutrient lake that experiences sporadic surface scums of the toxin-producing cyanobacterium, Gloeotrichia echinulata. We used data from several summers of weekly cyanobacteria samples to identify dominant sources of uncertainty for near-term (1- to 4-week) forecasts of G. echinulata densities. Water temperature was an important predictor of cyanobacterial densities during model fitting and at the 4-week forecast horizon. However, no physical covariates improved model performance over a simple model including the previous week's densities in 1-week-ahead forecasts. Even the best fit models exhibited large variance in forecasted cyanobacterial densities and did not capture rare peak occurrences, indicating that significant explanatory variables when fitting models to historical data are not always effective for forecasting. Uncertainty partitioning revealed that model process specification and initial conditions dominated forecast uncertainty. These findings indicate that long-term studies of different cyanobacterial life stages and movement in the water column as well as measurements of drivers relevant to different life stages could improve model process representation of cyanobacteria abundance. In addition, improved observation protocols could better define initial conditions and reduce spatial misalignment of environmental data and cyanobacteria observations. Our results emphasize the importance of ecological forecasting principles and uncertainty partitioning to refine and understand predictive capacity across ecosystems.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mary E. Lofton
- Department of Biological SciencesVirginia TechBlacksburgVirginiaUSA
| | - Jennifer A. Brentrup
- Department of Biological SciencesDartmouth CollegeHanoverNew HampshireUSA
- Present address:
Biology and Environmental Studies DepartmentSt. Olaf CollegeNorthfieldMinnesotaUSA
| | - Whitney S. Beck
- Department of Biology and Graduate Degree Program in EcologyColorado State UniversityFort CollinsColoradoUSA
- Present address:
U.S. Environmental Protection AgencyWashingtonDistrict of ColumbiaUSA
| | - Jacob A. Zwart
- U.S. Geological SurveyIntegrated Information Dissemination DivisionMiddletonWisconsinUSA
| | - Ruchi Bhattacharya
- Legacies of Agricultural Pollutants (LEAP)University of WaterlooWaterlooOntarioCanada
| | | | - Sarah H. Burnet
- Department of Fish and Wildlife ResourcesUniversity of IdahoMoscowIdahoUSA
| | - Ian M. McCullough
- Department of Fisheries and WildlifeMichigan State UniversityEast LansingMichiganUSA
| | | | - Cayelan C. Carey
- Department of Biological SciencesVirginia TechBlacksburgVirginiaUSA
| | | | - Michael C. Dietze
- Department of Earth and EnvironmentBoston UniversityBostonMassachusettsUSA
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You H, Zhang J, Xia S, Wu S. Farmland transfer and esophageal cancer incidence rate: mediation of pollution-related agricultural input intensity. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2022; 29:43826-43844. [PMID: 35119636 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-022-18921-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/05/2021] [Accepted: 01/24/2022] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
Cancer is a growing global health threat. Examining the determinants of cancer incidence can benefit for cancer treatment and prevention. Farmland transfer relates to the risk factors of esophageal cancer including environmental pollution, services access, and habits. This study characterizes the associations between farmland transfer and esophageal cancer incidence rate (ECI) that integrate mediated effect of pollution-related agricultural input intensity in Xiaoshan District, China. The state-space model is employed to quantify the relationships among farmland transfer, pollution-related agricultural input intensity, and ECI. The results showed that (1) Total effects of the proportion of transferred farmland (TFA) area cause a reduction in the ECI. Besides, the total positive effects of the proportion of transferred farmland cultivated non-grain crop (NGC) and proportion of farmland transferred to non-farmer users (NFU) show a downward trend. (2) The raise of TFA can result in the reduction of chemical fertilizer use intensity. Meanwhile, the raise of NGC and NFU can result in the growth of pollution-related agricultural input intensity. But these increasing effects generally show a downward trend. (3) Increasing chemical fertilizer use intensity and pesticide use intensity results in the rise of esophageal cancer incidence rate as a whole. (4) In general, farmland transfer has positive direct effects on esophageal cancer incidence rate. (5) The average proportions of mediated effects in all state-space models are larger than 10%. These findings can raise land reform policy designers' awareness of the risk of public health since the land transfer markets are emerging rapidly in land reform in many developing countries to improve agricultural production.
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Affiliation(s)
- Heyuan You
- School of Public Administration, Zhejiang University of Finance and Economics, Hangzhou, China.
- Department of City and Regional Planning, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA.
| | - Jinrong Zhang
- School of Public Administration, Zhejiang University of Finance and Economics, Hangzhou, China
| | - Shuyi Xia
- School of Public Administration, Zhejiang University of Finance and Economics, Hangzhou, China
| | - Shenyan Wu
- School of Public Administration, Zhejiang University of Finance and Economics, Hangzhou, China
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Galloway NL, Monello RJ, Brimeyer D, Cole EK, Hobbs NT. Supporting adaptive management with ecological forecasting: chronic wasting disease in the Jackson Elk Herd. Ecosphere 2021. [DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.3776] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/11/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Nathan L. Galloway
- Biological Resources Division National Park Service Fort Collins Colorado USA
| | - Ryan J. Monello
- Pacific Island Inventory and Monitoring Network National Park Service Hawai'i Volcanoes National Park Hawaii USA
| | - Doug Brimeyer
- Wyoming Game and Fish Department Jackson Wyoming USA
| | - Eric K. Cole
- National Elk Refuge US Fish and Wildlife Service Jackson Wyoming USA
| | - N. Thompson Hobbs
- Department of Ecosystem Science and Sustainability Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory Colorado State University Fort Collins Colorado USA
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9
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Auger‐Méthé M, Newman K, Cole D, Empacher F, Gryba R, King AA, Leos‐Barajas V, Mills Flemming J, Nielsen A, Petris G, Thomas L. A guide to state–space modeling of ecological time series. ECOL MONOGR 2021. [DOI: 10.1002/ecm.1470] [Citation(s) in RCA: 30] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/27/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Marie Auger‐Méthé
- Department of Statistics University of British Columbia Vancouver British Columbia V6T 1Z4 Canada
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries University of British Columbia Vancouver British Columbia V6T 1Z4 Canada
| | - Ken Newman
- Biomathematics and Statistics Scotland Edinburgh EH9 3FD UK
- School of Mathematics University of Edinburgh Edinburgh EH9 3FD UK
| | - Diana Cole
- School of Mathematics, Statistics and Actuarial Science University of Kent Canterbury Kent CT2 7FS UK
| | - Fanny Empacher
- Centre for Research into Ecological and Environmental Modelling University of St Andrews St Andrews KY16 9LZ UK
| | - Rowenna Gryba
- Department of Statistics University of British Columbia Vancouver British Columbia V6T 1Z4 Canada
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries University of British Columbia Vancouver British Columbia V6T 1Z4 Canada
| | - Aaron A. King
- Center for the Study of Complex Systems and Departments of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology and Mathematics University of Michigan Ann Arbor Michigan 48109 USA
| | - Vianey Leos‐Barajas
- Department of Statistics University of Toronto Toronto Ontario M5G 1X6 Canada
- School of the Environment University of Toronto Toronto Ontario M5S 3E8 Canada
| | - Joanna Mills Flemming
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics Dalhousie University Halifax Nova Scotia B3H 4R2 Canada
| | - Anders Nielsen
- National Institute for Aquatic Resources Technical University of Denmark Kgs. Lyngby 2800 Denmark
| | - Giovanni Petris
- Department of Mathematical Sciences University of Arkansas Fayetteville Arkansas 72701 USA
| | - Len Thomas
- Centre for Research into Ecological and Environmental Modelling University of St Andrews St Andrews KY16 9LZ UK
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10
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Khorozyan I. Setting Statistical Thresholds Is Useful to Define Truly Effective Conservation Interventions. Front Ecol Evol 2021. [DOI: 10.3389/fevo.2021.657423] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Effective interventions are needed to solve conflicts between humans and predators over livestock killing, nuisance behavior, and attacks on pets and humans. Progress in quantification of evidence-based effectiveness and selection of the best interventions raises new questions, such as the existence of thresholds to identify truly effective interventions. Current classification of more and less effective interventions is subjective and statistically unjustified. This study describes a novel method to differentiate true and untrue effectiveness on a basis of false positive risk (FPR). I have collected 152 cases of applications of damage-reducing interventions from 102 scientific publications, 26 countries, 22 predator species, and 6 categories of interventions. The analysis has shown that the 95% confidence interval of the relative risk of predator-caused damage was 0.10–0.25 for true effectiveness (FPR < 0.05) and 0.35–0.56 for untrue effectiveness (FPR ≥ 0.05). This means that damage was reduced by 75–90% for truly effective interventions and by 44–65% for interventions of untrue effectiveness. Based on this, it was specified that truly effective interventions have the relative risk ≤ 0.25 (damage reduction ≥ 75%) and the effectiveness of interventions with the relative risk > 0.25 (damage reduction < 75%) is untrue. This threshold is statistically well-justified, stable, easy to remember, and practical to use in anti-predator interventions. More research is essential to know how this threshold holds true for other conservation interventions aiming to reduce negative outcomes (e.g., poaching rates) or increase positive outcomes (e.g., species richness).
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11
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Henden JA, Ims RA, Yoccoz NG, Asbjørnsen EJ, Stien A, Mellard JP, Tveraa T, Marolla F, Jepsen JU. End-user involvement to improve predictions and management of populations with complex dynamics and multiple drivers. ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS : A PUBLICATION OF THE ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 2020; 30:e02120. [PMID: 32159900 DOI: 10.1002/eap.2120] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/02/2019] [Revised: 12/21/2019] [Accepted: 02/10/2020] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
Sustainable management of wildlife populations can be aided by building models that both identify current drivers of natural dynamics and provide near-term predictions of future states. We employed a Strategic Foresight Protocol (SFP) involving stakeholders to decide the purpose and structure of a dynamic state-space model for the population dynamics of the Willow Ptarmigan, a popular game species in Norway. Based on local knowledge of stakeholders, it was decided that the model should include food web interactions and climatic drivers to provide explanatory predictions. Modeling confirmed observations from stakeholders that climate change impacts Ptarmigan populations negatively through intensified outbreaks of insect defoliators and later onset of winter. Stakeholders also decided that the model should provide anticipatory predictions. The ability to forecast population density ahead of the harvest season was valued by the stakeholders as it provides the management extra time to consider appropriate harvest regulations and communicate with hunters prior to the hunting season. Overall, exploring potential drivers and predicting short-term future states, facilitate collaborative learning and refined data collection, monitoring designs, and management priorities. Our experience from adapting a SFP to a management target with inherently complex dynamics and drivers of environmental change, is that an open, flexible, and iterative process, rather than a rigid step-wise protocol, facilitates rapid learning, trust, and legitimacy.
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Affiliation(s)
- John-André Henden
- University of Tromsø, The Arctic University, Hansine Hansens veg 18, Tromsø, 9019, Norway
| | - Rolf A Ims
- University of Tromsø, The Arctic University, Hansine Hansens veg 18, Tromsø, 9019, Norway
- Norwegian Institute for Nature Research (NINA), Fram Centre, Postboks 6606 Langnes, Tromsø, 9296, Norway
| | - Nigel G Yoccoz
- University of Tromsø, The Arctic University, Hansine Hansens veg 18, Tromsø, 9019, Norway
- Norwegian Institute for Nature Research (NINA), Fram Centre, Postboks 6606 Langnes, Tromsø, 9296, Norway
| | | | - Audun Stien
- Norwegian Institute for Nature Research (NINA), Fram Centre, Postboks 6606 Langnes, Tromsø, 9296, Norway
| | - Jarad Pope Mellard
- University of Tromsø, The Arctic University, Hansine Hansens veg 18, Tromsø, 9019, Norway
| | - Torkild Tveraa
- Norwegian Institute for Nature Research (NINA), Fram Centre, Postboks 6606 Langnes, Tromsø, 9296, Norway
| | - Filippo Marolla
- University of Tromsø, The Arctic University, Hansine Hansens veg 18, Tromsø, 9019, Norway
| | - Jane Uhd Jepsen
- Norwegian Institute for Nature Research (NINA), Fram Centre, Postboks 6606 Langnes, Tromsø, 9296, Norway
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12
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Andrén H, Hobbs NT, Aronsson M, Brøseth H, Chapron G, Linnell JDC, Odden J, Persson J, Nilsen EB. Harvest models of small populations of a large carnivore using Bayesian forecasting. ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS : A PUBLICATION OF THE ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 2020; 30:e02063. [PMID: 31868951 PMCID: PMC7187313 DOI: 10.1002/eap.2063] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/09/2019] [Revised: 08/21/2019] [Accepted: 09/04/2019] [Indexed: 05/27/2023]
Abstract
Harvesting large carnivores can be a management tool for meeting politically set goals for their desired abundance. However, harvesting carnivores creates its own set of conflicts in both society and among conservation professionals, where one consequence is a need to demonstrate that management is sustainable, evidence-based, and guided by science. Furthermore, because large carnivores often also have high degrees of legal protection, harvest quotas have to be carefully justified and constantly adjusted to avoid damaging their conservation status. We developed a Bayesian state-space model to support adaptive management of Eurasian lynx harvesting in Scandinavia. The model uses data from the annual monitoring of lynx abundance and results from long-term field research on lynx biology, which has provided detailed estimates of key demographic parameters. We used the model to predict the probability that the forecasted population size will be below or above the management objectives when subjected to different harvest quotas. The model presented here informs decision makers about the policy risks of alternative harvest levels. Earlier versions of the model have been available for wildlife managers in both Sweden and Norway to guide lynx harvest quotas and the model predictions showed good agreement with observations. We combined monitoring data with data on vital rates and were able to estimate unobserved additional mortality rates, which are most probably due to poaching. In both countries, the past quota setting strategy suggests that there has been a de facto threshold strategy with increasing proportion, which means that there is no harvest below a certain population size, but above this threshold there is an increasing proportion of the population harvested as the population size increases. The annual assessment of the monitoring results, the use of forecasting models, and a threshold harvest approach to quota setting will all reduce the risk of lynx population sizes moving outside the desired goals. The approach we illustrate could be adapted to other populations of mammals worldwide.
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Affiliation(s)
- Henrik Andrén
- Grimsö Wildlife Research StationDepartment of EcologySwedish University of Agricultural SciencesSE‐730 91RiddarhyttanSweden
| | - N. Thompson Hobbs
- Natural Resource Ecology LaboratoryDepartment of Ecosystem Science and Sustainability, and Graduate Degree Program in EcologyColorado State UniversityFort CollinsColorado80523USA
| | - Malin Aronsson
- Grimsö Wildlife Research StationDepartment of EcologySwedish University of Agricultural SciencesSE‐730 91RiddarhyttanSweden
- Department of ZoologyStockholm UniversitySE‐106 91StockholmSweden
| | - Henrik Brøseth
- Rovdata, Norwegian Institute for Nature ResearchP.O. Box 5685, TorgardNO‐7485TrondheimNorway
| | - Guillaume Chapron
- Grimsö Wildlife Research StationDepartment of EcologySwedish University of Agricultural SciencesSE‐730 91RiddarhyttanSweden
| | - John D. C. Linnell
- Norwegian Institute for Nature ResearchP.O. Box 5685, TorgardNO‐7485TrondheimNorway
| | - John Odden
- Norwegian Institute for Nature ResearchP.O. Box 5685, TorgardNO‐7485TrondheimNorway
| | - Jens Persson
- Grimsö Wildlife Research StationDepartment of EcologySwedish University of Agricultural SciencesSE‐730 91RiddarhyttanSweden
| | - Erlend B. Nilsen
- Norwegian Institute for Nature ResearchP.O. Box 5685, TorgardNO‐7485TrondheimNorway
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Miller RS, Pepin KM. BOARD INVITED REVIEW: Prospects for improving management of animal disease introductions using disease-dynamic models. J Anim Sci 2019; 97:2291-2307. [PMID: 30976799 PMCID: PMC6541823 DOI: 10.1093/jas/skz125] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/19/2019] [Accepted: 04/10/2019] [Indexed: 12/27/2022] Open
Abstract
Management and policy decisions are continually made to mitigate disease introductions in animal populations despite often limited surveillance data or knowledge of disease transmission processes. Science-based management is broadly recognized as leading to more effective decisions yet application of models to actively guide disease surveillance and mitigate risks remains limited. Disease-dynamic models are an efficient method of providing information for management decisions because of their ability to integrate and evaluate multiple, complex processes simultaneously while accounting for uncertainty common in animal diseases. Here we review disease introduction pathways and transmission processes crucial for informing disease management and models at the interface of domestic animals and wildlife. We describe how disease transmission models can improve disease management and present a conceptual framework for integrating disease models into the decision process using adaptive management principles. We apply our framework to a case study of African swine fever virus in wild and domestic swine to demonstrate how disease-dynamic models can improve mitigation of introduction risk. We also identify opportunities to improve the application of disease models to support decision-making to manage disease at the interface of domestic and wild animals. First, scientists must focus on objective-driven models providing practical predictions that are useful to those managing disease. In order for practical model predictions to be incorporated into disease management a recognition that modeling is a means to improve management and outcomes is important. This will be most successful when done in a cross-disciplinary environment that includes scientists and decision-makers representing wildlife and domestic animal health. Lastly, including economic principles of value-of-information and cost-benefit analysis in disease-dynamic models can facilitate more efficient management decisions and improve communication of model forecasts. Integration of disease-dynamic models into management and decision-making processes is expected to improve surveillance systems, risk mitigations, outbreak preparedness, and outbreak response activities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ryan S Miller
- Center for Epidemiology and Animal Health, United States Department of Agriculture-Veterinary Services, Fort Collins, CO
| | - Kim M Pepin
- National Wildlife Research Center, United States Department of Agriculture-Wildlife Services, Fort Collins, CO
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14
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Ketz AC, Johnson TL, Hooten MB, Hobbs NT. A hierarchical Bayesian approach for handling missing classification data. Ecol Evol 2019; 9:3130-3140. [PMID: 30962886 PMCID: PMC6434567 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.4927] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/22/2018] [Revised: 11/21/2018] [Accepted: 01/02/2019] [Indexed: 11/29/2022] Open
Abstract
Ecologists use classifications of individuals in categories to understand composition of populations and communities. These categories might be defined by demographics, functional traits, or species. Assignment of categories is often imperfect, but frequently treated as observations without error. When individuals are observed but not classified, these "partial" observations must be modified to include the missing data mechanism to avoid spurious inference.We developed two hierarchical Bayesian models to overcome the assumption of perfect assignment to mutually exclusive categories in the multinomial distribution of categorical counts, when classifications are missing. These models incorporate auxiliary information to adjust the posterior distributions of the proportions of membership in categories. In one model, we use an empirical Bayes approach, where a subset of data from one year serves as a prior for the missing data the next. In the other approach, we use a small random sample of data within a year to inform the distribution of the missing data.We performed a simulation to show the bias that occurs when partial observations were ignored and demonstrated the altered inference for the estimation of demographic ratios. We applied our models to demographic classifications of elk (Cervus elaphus nelsoni) to demonstrate improved inference for the proportions of sex and stage classes.We developed multiple modeling approaches using a generalizable nested multinomial structure to account for partially observed data that were missing not at random for classification counts. Accounting for classification uncertainty is important to accurately understand the composition of populations and communities in ecological studies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alison C. Ketz
- Natural Resource Ecology LabDepartment of Ecosystem Science and Sustainability, and Graduate Degree Program in EcologyColorado State UniversityFort CollinsColorado
| | | | - Mevin B. Hooten
- U.S. Geological SurveyColorado Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research UnitColorado State UniversityFort CollinsColorado
- Department of Fish, Wildlife and Conservation BiologyColorado State UniversityFort CollinsColorado
- Department of StatisticsColorado State UniversityFort CollinsColorado
| | - N. Thompson Hobbs
- Natural Resource Ecology LabDepartment of Ecosystem Science and Sustainability, and Graduate Degree Program in EcologyColorado State UniversityFort CollinsColorado
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15
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Benhaiem S, Marescot L, East ML, Kramer-Schadt S, Gimenez O, Lebreton JD, Hofer H. Slow recovery from a disease epidemic in the spotted hyena, a keystone social carnivore. Commun Biol 2018; 1:201. [PMID: 30480102 PMCID: PMC6244218 DOI: 10.1038/s42003-018-0197-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/10/2018] [Accepted: 10/19/2018] [Indexed: 12/21/2022] Open
Abstract
Predicting the impact of disease epidemics on wildlife populations is one of the twenty-first century's main conservation challenges. The long-term demographic responses of wildlife populations to epidemics and the life history and social traits modulating these responses are generally unknown, particularly for K-selected social species. Here we develop a stage-structured matrix population model to provide a long-term projection of demographic responses by a keystone social predator, the spotted hyena, to a virulent epidemic of canine distemper virus (CDV) in the Serengeti ecosystem in 1993/1994 and predict the recovery time for the population following the epidemic. Using two decades of longitudinal data from 625 known hyenas, we demonstrate that although the reduction in population size was moderate, i.e., the population showed high ecological 'resistance' to the novel CDV genotype present, recovery was slow. Interestingly, high-ranking females accelerated the population's recovery, thereby lessening the impact of the epidemic on the population.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sarah Benhaiem
- Department of Ecological Dynamics, Leibniz Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research, Alfred-Kowalke-Strasse 17, D-10315, Berlin, Germany.
| | - Lucile Marescot
- Department of Ecological Dynamics, Leibniz Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research, Alfred-Kowalke-Strasse 17, D-10315, Berlin, Germany
- CEFE, CNRS, University Montpellier, University Paul Valéry Montpellier 3, EPHE, IRD, Montpellier, 34090, France
| | - Marion L East
- Department of Ecological Dynamics, Leibniz Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research, Alfred-Kowalke-Strasse 17, D-10315, Berlin, Germany
| | - Stephanie Kramer-Schadt
- Department of Ecological Dynamics, Leibniz Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research, Alfred-Kowalke-Strasse 17, D-10315, Berlin, Germany
- Department of Ecology, Technische Universität Berlin, Rothenburgstr. 12, 12165, Berlin, Germany
| | - Olivier Gimenez
- CEFE, CNRS, University Montpellier, University Paul Valéry Montpellier 3, EPHE, IRD, Montpellier, 34090, France
| | - Jean-Dominique Lebreton
- CEFE, CNRS, University Montpellier, University Paul Valéry Montpellier 3, EPHE, IRD, Montpellier, 34090, France
| | - Heribert Hofer
- Department of Ecological Dynamics, Leibniz Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research, Alfred-Kowalke-Strasse 17, D-10315, Berlin, Germany
- Department of Veterinary Medicine, Freie Universität Berlin, Oertzenweg 19b, Berlin, 14163, Germany
- Department of Biology, Chemistry, Pharmacy, Freie Universität Berlin, Takustr. 3, Berlin, 14195, Germany
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Cotterill GG, Cross PC, Middleton AD, Rogerson JD, Scurlock BM, du Toit JT. Hidden cost of disease in a free-ranging ungulate: brucellosis reduces mid-winter pregnancy in elk. Ecol Evol 2018; 8:10733-10742. [PMID: 30519402 PMCID: PMC6262735 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.4521] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/04/2018] [Revised: 08/06/2018] [Accepted: 08/19/2018] [Indexed: 11/08/2022] Open
Abstract
Demonstrating disease impacts on the vital rates of free-ranging mammalian hosts typically requires intensive, long-term study. Evidence for chronic pathogens affecting reproduction but not survival is rare, but has the potential for wide-ranging effects. Accurately quantifying disease-associated reductions in fecundity is important for advancing theory, generating accurate predictive models, and achieving effective management. We investigated the impacts of brucellosis (Brucella abortus) on elk (Cervus canadensis) productivity using serological data from over 6,000 captures since 1990 in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, USA. Over 1,000 of these records included known age and pregnancy status. Using Bayesian multilevel models, we estimated the age-specific pregnancy probabilities of exposed and naïve elk. We then used repeat-capture data to investigate the full effects of the disease on life history. Brucellosis exposure reduced pregnancy rates of elk captured in mid- and late-winter. In an average year, we found 60% of exposed 2-year-old elk were pregnant compared to 91% of their naïve counterparts (a 31 percentage point reduction, 89% HPDI = 20%-42%), whereas exposed 3- to 9-year-olds were 7 percentage points less likely to be pregnant than naïve elk of their same age (89% HPDI = 2%-11%). We found these reduced rates of pregnancy to be independent from disease-induced abortions, which afflict a portion of exposed elk. We estimate that the combination of reduced pregnancy by mid-winter and the abortions following mid-winter reduces the reproductive output of exposed female elk by 24%, which affects population dynamics to a similar extent as severe winters or droughts. Exposing hidden reproductive costs of disease is essential to avoid conflating them with the effects of climate and predation. Such reproductive costs cause complex population dynamics, and the magnitude of the effect we found should drive a strong selection gradient if there is heritable resistance.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Paul C. Cross
- U.S. Geological SurveyNorthern Rocky Mountain Science CenterBozemanMontana
| | - Arthur D. Middleton
- Department of Environmental Science, Policy and ManagementUniversity of CaliforniaBerkeleyCalifornia
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17
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Benhaiem S, Marescot L, Hofer H, East ML, Lebreton JD, Kramer-Schadt S, Gimenez O. Robustness of Eco-Epidemiological Capture-Recapture Parameter Estimates to Variation in Infection State Uncertainty. Front Vet Sci 2018; 5:197. [PMID: 30211175 PMCID: PMC6121098 DOI: 10.3389/fvets.2018.00197] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/28/2018] [Accepted: 07/27/2018] [Indexed: 12/02/2022] Open
Abstract
Estimating eco-epidemiological parameters in free-ranging populations can be challenging. As known individuals may be undetected during a field session, or their health status uncertain, the collected data are typically "imperfect". Multi-event capture-mark-recapture (MECMR) models constitute a substantial methodological advance by accounting for such imperfect data. In these models, animals can be "undetected" or "detected" at each time step. Detected animals can be assigned an infection state, such as "susceptible" (S), "infected" (I), or "recovered" (R), or an "unknown" (U) state, when for instance no biological sample could be collected. There may be heterogeneity in the assignment of infection states, depending on the manifestation of the disease in the host or the diagnostic method. For example, if obtaining the samples needed to prove viral infection in a detected animal is difficult, this can result in a low chance of assigning the I state. Currently, it is unknown how much uncertainty MECMR models can tolerate to provide reliable estimates of eco-epidemiological parameters and whether these parameters are sensitive to heterogeneity in the assignment of infection states. We used simulations to assess how estimates of the survival probability of individuals in different infection states and the probabilities of infection and recovery responded to (1) increasing infection state uncertainty (i.e., the proportion of U) from 20 to 90%, and (2) heterogeneity in the probability of assigning infection states. We simulated data, mimicking a highly virulent disease, and used SIR-MECMR models to quantify bias and precision. For most parameter estimates, bias increased and precision decreased gradually with state uncertainty. The probabilities of survival of I and R individuals and of detection of R individuals were very robust to increasing state uncertainty. In contrast, the probabilities of survival and detection of S individuals, and the infection and recovery probabilities showed high biases and low precisions when state uncertainty was >50%, particularly when the assignment of the S state was reduced. Considering this specific disease scenario, SIR-MECMR models are globally robust to state uncertainty and heterogeneity in state assignment, but the previously mentioned parameter estimates should be carefully interpreted if the proportion of U is high.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sarah Benhaiem
- Department of Ecological Dynamics, Leibniz Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research, Berlin, Germany
| | - Lucile Marescot
- Department of Ecological Dynamics, Leibniz Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research, Berlin, Germany
- CEFE, CNRS, University Montpellier, University Paul Valéry Montpellier 3, EPHE, IRD, Montpellier, France
| | - Heribert Hofer
- Department of Ecological Dynamics, Leibniz Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research, Berlin, Germany
- Department of Veterinary Medicine, Freie Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany
- Department of Biology, Chemistry, and Pharmacy, Berlin, Germany
| | - Marion L. East
- Department of Ecological Dynamics, Leibniz Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research, Berlin, Germany
| | - Jean-Dominique Lebreton
- CEFE, CNRS, University Montpellier, University Paul Valéry Montpellier 3, EPHE, IRD, Montpellier, France
| | - Stephanie Kramer-Schadt
- Department of Ecological Dynamics, Leibniz Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research, Berlin, Germany
- Department of Ecology, Technische Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany
| | - Olivier Gimenez
- CEFE, CNRS, University Montpellier, University Paul Valéry Montpellier 3, EPHE, IRD, Montpellier, France
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18
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Abstract
Coinfecting parasites and pathogens remain a leading challenge for global public health due to their consequences for individual-level infection risk and disease progression. However, a clear understanding of the population-level consequences of coinfection is lacking. Here, we constructed a model that includes three individual-level effects of coinfection: mortality, fecundity, and transmission. We used the model to investigate how these individual-level consequences of coinfection scale up to produce population-level infection patterns. To parameterize this model, we conducted a 4-y cohort study in African buffalo to estimate the individual-level effects of coinfection with two bacterial pathogens, bovine tuberculosis (bTB) and brucellosis, across a range of demographic and environmental contexts. At the individual level, our empirical results identified bTB as a risk factor for acquiring brucellosis, but we found no association between brucellosis and the risk of acquiring bTB. Both infections were associated with reductions in survival and neither infection was associated with reductions in fecundity. The model reproduced coinfection patterns in the data and predicted opposite impacts of coinfection at individual and population scales: Whereas bTB facilitated brucellosis infection at the individual level, our model predicted the presence of brucellosis to have a strong negative impact on bTB at the population level. In modeled populations where brucellosis was present, the endemic prevalence and basic reproduction number ([Formula: see text]) of bTB were lower than in populations without brucellosis. Therefore, these results provide a data-driven example of competition between coinfecting pathogens that occurs when one pathogen facilitates secondary infections at the individual level.
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19
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Iterative near-term ecological forecasting: Needs, opportunities, and challenges. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2018; 115:1424-1432. [PMID: 29382745 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1710231115] [Citation(s) in RCA: 209] [Impact Index Per Article: 34.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/27/2023] Open
Abstract
Two foundational questions about sustainability are "How are ecosystems and the services they provide going to change in the future?" and "How do human decisions affect these trajectories?" Answering these questions requires an ability to forecast ecological processes. Unfortunately, most ecological forecasts focus on centennial-scale climate responses, therefore neither meeting the needs of near-term (daily to decadal) environmental decision-making nor allowing comparison of specific, quantitative predictions to new observational data, one of the strongest tests of scientific theory. Near-term forecasts provide the opportunity to iteratively cycle between performing analyses and updating predictions in light of new evidence. This iterative process of gaining feedback, building experience, and correcting models and methods is critical for improving forecasts. Iterative, near-term forecasting will accelerate ecological research, make it more relevant to society, and inform sustainable decision-making under high uncertainty and adaptive management. Here, we identify the immediate scientific and societal needs, opportunities, and challenges for iterative near-term ecological forecasting. Over the past decade, data volume, variety, and accessibility have greatly increased, but challenges remain in interoperability, latency, and uncertainty quantification. Similarly, ecologists have made considerable advances in applying computational, informatic, and statistical methods, but opportunities exist for improving forecast-specific theory, methods, and cyberinfrastructure. Effective forecasting will also require changes in scientific training, culture, and institutions. The need to start forecasting is now; the time for making ecology more predictive is here, and learning by doing is the fastest route to drive the science forward.
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20
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More S, Bøtner A, Butterworth A, Calistri P, Depner K, Edwards S, Garin-Bastuji B, Good M, Gortázar Schmidt C, Michel V, Miranda MA, Nielsen SS, Raj M, Sihvonen L, Spoolder H, Stegeman JA, Thulke HH, Velarde A, Willeberg P, Winckler C, Baldinelli F, Broglia A, Verdonck F, Beltrán Beck B, Kohnle L, Morgado J, Bicout D. Assessment of listing and categorisation of animal diseases within the framework of the Animal Health Law (Regulation (EU) No 2016/429): infection with Brucella abortus, B. melitensis and B. suis. EFSA J 2017; 15:e04889. [PMID: 32625554 PMCID: PMC7009888 DOI: 10.2903/j.efsa.2017.4889] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/02/2022] Open
Abstract
The infection with Brucella abortus, Brucella melitensis and Brucella suis has been assessed according to the criteria of the Animal Health Law (AHL), in particular criteria of Article 7 on disease profile and impacts, Article 5 on the eligibility of the infection with B. abortus, B. melitensis and B. suis to be listed, Article 9 for the categorisation of the infection with B. abortus, B. melitensis and B. suis according to disease prevention and control rules as in Annex IV and Article 8 on the list of animal species related to the infection with B. abortus, B. melitensis and B. suis. The assessment has been performed following a methodology composed of information collection and compilation, expert judgement on each criterion at individual and, if no consensus was reached before, also at collective level. The output is composed of the categorical answer, and for the questions where no consensus was reached, the different supporting views are reported. Details on the methodology used for this assessment are explained in a separate opinion. According to the assessment performed, the infection with B. abortus, B. melitensis and B. suis can be considered eligible to be listed for Union intervention as laid down in Article 5(3) of the AHL. The disease complies with the criteria as in Sections 2, 3, 4 and 5 of Annex IV of the AHL, for the application of the disease prevention and control rules referred to in points (b), (c), (d) and (e) of Article 9(1). The animal species to be listed for the infection with B. abortus, B. melitensis and B. suis according to Article 8(3) criteria are several mammal species, as indicated in the present opinion.
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21
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Benavides JA, Caillaud D, Scurlock BM, Maichak EJ, Edwards WH, Cross PC. Estimating Loss of Brucella Abortus Antibodies from Age-Specific Serological Data In Elk. ECOHEALTH 2017; 14:234-243. [PMID: 28508154 PMCID: PMC5486471 DOI: 10.1007/s10393-017-1235-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/16/2016] [Revised: 02/15/2017] [Accepted: 03/20/2017] [Indexed: 06/07/2023]
Abstract
Serological data are one of the primary sources of information for disease monitoring in wildlife. However, the duration of the seropositive status of exposed individuals is almost always unknown for many free-ranging host species. Directly estimating rates of antibody loss typically requires difficult longitudinal sampling of individuals following seroconversion. Instead, we propose a Bayesian statistical approach linking age and serological data to a mechanistic epidemiological model to infer brucellosis infection, the probability of antibody loss, and recovery rates of elk (Cervus canadensis) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. We found that seroprevalence declined above the age of ten, with no evidence of disease-induced mortality. The probability of antibody loss was estimated to be 0.70 per year after a five-year period of seropositivity and the basic reproduction number for brucellosis to 2.13. Our results suggest that individuals are unlikely to become re-infected because models with this mechanism were unable to reproduce a significant decline in seroprevalence in older individuals. This study highlights the possible implications of antibody loss, which could bias our estimation of critical epidemiological parameters for wildlife disease management based on serological data.
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Affiliation(s)
- J A Benavides
- Department of Ecology, Montana State University, 310 Lewis Hall, Bozeman, MT, 59717, USA.
- Institute of Biodiversity Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, G12 8QQ, UK.
| | - D Caillaud
- The Dian Fossey Gorilla Fund International, Atlanta, GA, USA
- Department of Anthropology, The University of California, Davis, Davis, CA, 95616, USA
| | - B M Scurlock
- Wyoming Game and Fish Department, Pinedale, WY, 82941, USA
| | - E J Maichak
- Wyoming Game and Fish Department, Pinedale, WY, 82941, USA
| | - W H Edwards
- Wyoming Game and Fish Department, Laramie, WY, 82071, USA
| | - P C Cross
- U.S. Geological Survey, Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center, 2327 University Way Suite 2, Bozeman, MT, 59715, USA
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22
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Dynamics of leprosy in nine-banded armadillos: Net reproductive number and effects on host population dynamics. Ecol Modell 2017. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2017.02.001] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/20/2023]
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Affiliation(s)
- Guillaume Chapron
- Grimsö Wildlife Research Station, Department of Ecology, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, 73091 Riddarhyttan, Sweden
| | - Adrian Treves
- Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies, University of Wisconsin, 30A Science Hall, 550 North Park Street, Madison, WI 53706, USA
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Forgacs D, Wallen RL, Dobson LK, Derr JN. Mitochondrial Genome Analysis Reveals Historical Lineages in Yellowstone Bison. PLoS One 2016; 11:e0166081. [PMID: 27880780 PMCID: PMC5120810 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0166081] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/19/2016] [Accepted: 10/21/2016] [Indexed: 12/30/2022] Open
Abstract
Yellowstone National Park is home to one of the only plains bison populations that have continuously existed on their present landscape since prehistoric times without evidence of domestic cattle introgression. Previous studies characterized the relatively high levels of nuclear genetic diversity in these bison, but little is known about their mitochondrial haplotype diversity. This study assessed mitochondrial genomes from 25 randomly selected Yellowstone bison and found 10 different mitochondrial haplotypes with a haplotype diversity of 0.78 (± 0.06). Spatial analysis of these mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) haplotypes did not detect geographic population subdivision (FST = -0.06, p = 0.76). However, we identified two independent and historically important lineages in Yellowstone bison by combining data from 65 bison (defined by 120 polymorphic sites) from across North America representing a total of 30 different mitochondrial DNA haplotypes. Mitochondrial DNA haplotypes from one of the Yellowstone lineages represent descendants of the 22 indigenous bison remaining in central Yellowstone in 1902. The other mitochondrial DNA lineage represents descendants of the 18 females introduced from northern Montana in 1902 to supplement the indigenous bison population and develop a new breeding herd in the northern region of the park. Comparing modern and historical mitochondrial DNA diversity in Yellowstone bison helps uncover a historical context of park restoration efforts during the early 1900s, provides evidence against a hypothesized mitochondrial disease in bison, and reveals the signature of recent hybridization between American plains bison (Bison bison bison) and Canadian wood bison (B. b. athabascae). Our study demonstrates how mitochondrial DNA can be applied to delineate the history of wildlife species and inform future conservation actions.
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Affiliation(s)
- David Forgacs
- Department of Veterinary Pathobiology, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas, United States of America
| | - Rick L. Wallen
- National Park Service, Yellowstone National Park, Mammoth Hot Springs, Wyoming, United States of America
| | - Lauren K. Dobson
- Department of Veterinary Pathobiology, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas, United States of America
| | - James N. Derr
- Department of Veterinary Pathobiology, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas, United States of America
- * E-mail:
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25
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Ketz AC, Johnson TL, Monello RJ, Hobbs NT. Informing management with monitoring data: the value of
B
ayesian forecasting. Ecosphere 2016. [DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.1587] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/11/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Alison C. Ketz
- Natural Resource Ecology Lab Department of Ecosystem Science and Sustainability, Graduate Degree Program in Ecology Colorado State University Fort Collins Colorado 80523 USA
| | - Therese L. Johnson
- National Park Service Rocky Mountain National Park 1000 West Highway 36 Estes Park Colorado 80517 USA
| | - Ryan J. Monello
- National Park Service Inventory and Monitoring Program Pacific Island Network P.O. Box 52 Hawai'i Volcanoes National Park Hawaii 96718 USA
| | - N. Thompson Hobbs
- Natural Resource Ecology Lab Department of Ecosystem Science and Sustainability, Graduate Degree Program in Ecology Colorado State University Fort Collins Colorado 80523 USA
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26
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Kamath PL, Foster JT, Drees KP, Luikart G, Quance C, Anderson NJ, Clarke PR, Cole EK, Drew ML, Edwards WH, Rhyan JC, Treanor JJ, Wallen RL, White PJ, Robbe-Austerman S, Cross PC. Genomics reveals historic and contemporary transmission dynamics of a bacterial disease among wildlife and livestock. Nat Commun 2016; 7:11448. [PMID: 27165544 PMCID: PMC4865865 DOI: 10.1038/ncomms11448] [Citation(s) in RCA: 74] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/04/2015] [Accepted: 03/29/2016] [Indexed: 01/09/2023] Open
Abstract
Whole-genome sequencing has provided fundamental insights into infectious disease epidemiology, but has rarely been used for examining transmission dynamics of a bacterial pathogen in wildlife. In the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE), outbreaks of brucellosis have increased in cattle along with rising seroprevalence in elk. Here we use a genomic approach to examine Brucella abortus evolution, cross-species transmission and spatial spread in the GYE. We find that brucellosis was introduced into wildlife in this region at least five times. The diffusion rate varies among Brucella lineages (∼3 to 8 km per year) and over time. We also estimate 12 host transitions from bison to elk, and 5 from elk to bison. Our results support the notion that free-ranging elk are currently a self-sustaining brucellosis reservoir and the source of livestock infections, and that control measures in bison are unlikely to affect the dynamics of unrelated strains circulating in nearby elk populations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Pauline L Kamath
- U.S. Geological Survey, Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center, Bozeman, Montana 59715, USA
| | - Jeffrey T Foster
- Center for Microbial Genetics and Genomics, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, Arizona 86011, USA
| | - Kevin P Drees
- Center for Microbial Genetics and Genomics, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, Arizona 86011, USA
| | - Gordon Luikart
- Flathead Lake Biological Station, Division of Biological Sciences, University of Montana, Missoula, Montana 59812, USA
| | - Christine Quance
- USDA-APHIS, National Veterinary Services Laboratories, Ames, Iowa 50010, USA
| | - Neil J Anderson
- Montana Fish Wildlife and Parks, Bozeman, Montana 59718, USA
| | - P Ryan Clarke
- USDA-APHIS, Veterinary Services, Fort Collins, Colorado 80526, USA
| | - Eric K Cole
- USFWS, National Elk Refuge, Jackson, Wyoming 83001, USA
| | - Mark L Drew
- Wildlife Health Laboratory, Idaho Department of Fish and Game, Caldwell, Idaho 83607, USA
| | | | - Jack C Rhyan
- USDA-APHIS, Veterinary Services, Fort Collins, Colorado 80526, USA
| | - John J Treanor
- National Park Service, Yellowstone National Park, Mammoth, Wyoming 82190, USA
| | - Rick L Wallen
- National Park Service, Yellowstone National Park, Mammoth, Wyoming 82190, USA
| | - Patrick J White
- National Park Service, Yellowstone National Park, Mammoth, Wyoming 82190, USA
| | | | - Paul C Cross
- U.S. Geological Survey, Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center, Bozeman, Montana 59715, USA
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27
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Raiho AM, Hooten MB, Bates S, Hobbs NT. Forecasting the Effects of Fertility Control on Overabundant Ungulates: White-Tailed Deer in the National Capital Region. PLoS One 2015; 10:e0143122. [PMID: 26650739 PMCID: PMC4674220 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0143122] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/25/2015] [Accepted: 10/30/2015] [Indexed: 11/24/2022] Open
Abstract
Overabundant populations of ungulates have caused environmental degradation and loss of biological diversity in ecosystems throughout the world. Culling or regulated harvest is often used to control overabundant species. These methods are difficult to implement in national parks, other types of conservation reserves, or in residential areas where public hunting may be forbidden by policy. As a result, fertility control has been recommended as a non-lethal alternative for regulating ungulate populations. We evaluate this alternative using white-tailed deer in national parks in the vicinity of Washington, D.C., USA as a model system. Managers seek to reduce densities of white-tailed deer from the current average (50 deer per km2) to decrease harm to native plant communities caused by deer. We present a Bayesian hierarchical model using 13 years of population estimates from 8 national parks in the National Capital Region Network. We offer a novel way to evaluate management actions relative to goals using short term forecasts. Our approach confirms past analyses that fertility control is incapable of rapidly reducing deer abundance. Fertility control can be combined with culling to maintain a population below carrying capacity with a high probability of success. This gives managers confronted with problematic overabundance a framework for implementing management actions with a realistic assessment of uncertainty.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ann M. Raiho
- Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Department of Ecosystem Science and Sustainability, and Graduate Degree Program in Ecology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, 80523, United States of America
- * E-mail:
| | - Mevin B. Hooten
- U.S. Geological Survey, Colorado Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit; Department of Fish, Wildlife, and Conservation Biology and Department of Statistics, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523, United States of America
| | - Scott Bates
- Urban Ecology Center, National Capital Region, National Park Service, Washington, D.C., United States of America
| | - N. Thompson Hobbs
- Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Department of Ecosystem Science and Sustainability, and Graduate Degree Program in Ecology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, 80523, United States of America
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