Drivers of biological response to fluctuating seawater ph conditions in sea urchin echinus esculentus larvae

A large body of evidence is documenting the impact of reduced pH on marine species and ecosystems. This information is used to infer the present and future impacts of ocean acidification. However, a vast majority of the studies were performed using constant pH and the high level of pH variability experienced by marine organisms on the coastal zone was often overlooked. Recent studies highlight the key role of this variability in driving biological response to pH as well as species sensitivity to ocean acidification. For example, it was hypothesized that because of local adaptation, the extreme of the present range of pH variability is a good predictor for local biological thresholds. Using a complex experimental design, we investigated what part of the pH variability is driving the biological response of the sea urchin Echinus esculentus larvae. Comparing stable (pH 8.13, 7.82, 7.53) and fluctuating treatments (12 h at pH 8.13 and 12 h at pH 7.53) following natural or inverted diurnal cycles, we were able to show that (i) under constant conditions, low pH deviating from the present range of natural variability had a negative effect on larval growth rate and calcification; (ii) under fluctuating conditions, a desynchronization of the pH variation with the photoperiod led to decreased larval growth rate and calcification; (iii) overall, larval fitness (survival, growth and calcification) was higher under fluctuating conditions as compared to constant. While these data do not support the hypothesis that the minimum pH is the main driver of the biological response, they provide evidence of adaptation to variability in a coastal species with associated a cost of plasticity but not a cost of canalization.

Early warning indicators capture catastrophic transitions driven by explicit rates of environmental change

In response to external changes, ecosystems can undergo catastrophic transitions. Early warning indicators aim to predict such transitions based on the phenomenon of critical slowing down at bifurcation points found under a constant environment. When an explicit rate of environmental change is considered, catastrophic transitions can become distinct phenomena from bifurcations, and result from a delayed response to noncatastrophic bifurcations. We use a trophic metacommunity model where transitions in time series and bifurcations of the system are distinct phenomena. We calculate early warning indicators from the time series of the continually changing system and show that they predict not the bifurcation of the underlying system but the actual catastrophic transition driven by the explicit rate of change. Predictions based on the bifurcation structure could miss catastrophic transitions that can still be captured by early warning signals calculated from time series. Our results expand the repertoire of mechanistic models used to anticipate catastrophic transitions to nonequilibrium ecological systems exposed to a constant rate of environmental change.

Making Your Own Luck: Weak Vertical Swimming Improves Dispersal Success for Coastal Marine Larvae

Dispersive early life stages are common in nature. Although many dispersing organisms ("propagules") are passively moved by outside forces, some improve their chances of successful dispersal through weak movements that exploit the structure of the environment to great effect. The larvae of many coastal marine invertebrates, for instance, swim vertically through the water column to exploit depth-varying currents, food abundance, and predation risk. Several swimming behaviors and their effects on dispersal between habitats are characterized in the literature, yet it remains unclear when and why these behaviors are advantageous. We addressed this gap using a mathematical model of larval dispersal that scored how well behaviors allowed larvae to simultaneously locate habitats, avoid predators, and gather energy. We computed optimal larval behaviors through dynamic programming, and compared those optima against passive floating and three well documented behaviors from the literature. Optimal behaviors often (but not always) resembled the documented ones. However, our model predicted that the behaviors from the literature performed robustly well, if not optimally, across many conditions. Our results shed light on why some larval behaviors are widespread geographically and across species, and underscore the importance of carefully considering the weak movements of otherwise passive propagules when studying dispersal.

Multidisciplinary estimates of connectivity and population structure suggest the use of multiple units for the conservation and management of meagre, Argyrosomus regius

Information on population structure and connectivity of targeted species is key for proper implementation of spatial conservation measures. We used a combination of genomics, biophysical modelling, and biotelemetry to infer the population structure and connectivity of Atlantic meagre, an important fisheries resource throughout its distribution. Genetic samples from previously identified Atlantic spawning locations (Gironde, Tejo, Guadalquivir, Banc d'Arguin) and two additional regions (Algarve and Senegal) were analysed using genome-wide SNP-genotyping and mitochondrial DNA analyses. Biophysical models were conducted to investigate larval dispersal and connectivity from the known Atlantic spawning locations. Additionally, thirteen fish were double-tagged with biotelemetry transmitters off the Algarve (Portugal) to assess movement patterns and connectivity of adult individuals. This multidisciplinary approach provided a robust overview of meagre population structure and connectivity in the Atlantic. Nuclear SNP-genotyping showed a clear differentiation between the European and African populations, with significant isolation of the few known Atlantic spawning sites. The limited level of connectivity between these subpopulations is potentially driven by adults, capable of wide-ranging movements and connecting sites 500 km apart, as evidenced by tagging studies, whilst larval dispersal inferred by modelling is much more limited (average of 52 km; 95% of connectivity events up to 174 km). Our results show sufficient evidence of population structure, particularly between Africa and Europe but also within Europe, for the meagre to be managed as separate stocks. Additionally, considering the low degree of larvae connectivity, the implementation of marine protected areas in key spawning sites could be crucial towards species sustainability.

An Assessment of the Biological Significance of a Visual Clutch Staging Scheme for Ovigerous Female American Lobster (Homarus americanus)

Qualitative visual clutch staging is a useful tool for rapidly and non-invasively assessing the developmental stage of American lobster, Homarus americanus, embryos. While such a scheme has been used in fisheries monitoring strategies in Canada since the 1980s, the biological relevance of its four visually distinguishable stages is poorly understood. We conducted a laboratory experiment in which 10 ovigerous females were housed and the development of their embryos regularly assessed, both qualitatively and quantitatively, from November until hatching in July/August. We confirmed the biological relevance of the qualitative staging scheme by showing clear quantitative differences in the duration and rate of embryonic development of stages 2-4 (stage 1 was not assessed as the precise spawning date was unknown). Stage 2 represents winter-spring "dormancy". Stage 3 represents a shorter period of rapid development preceding hatch. Stage 4 represents hatching. We also recommend some improvements to the qualitative staging scheme, specifically (1) adding criteria related to the portion of eggs that are occupied by yolk to increase the accuracy of staging, (2) slightly redefining stage 3 to ensure it encompasses the full period of rapid embryonic development pre-hatch, and (3) adding the presence of pre-zoeae as a key indicator of hatching to avoid the misclassification of clutches in the early stages of hatching or those that are completely spent but still have adhesive substance.

Unifying approaches to Functional Marine Connectivity for improved marine resource management: the European SEA-UNICORN COST Action

Truly sustainable development in a human-altered, fragmented marine environment subject to unprecedented climate change, demands informed planning strategies in order to be successful. Beyond a simple understanding of the distribution of marine species, data describing how variations in spatio-temporal dynamics impact ecosystem functioning and the evolution of species are required. Marine Functional Connectivity (MFC) characterizes the flows of matter, genes and energy produced by organism movements and migrations across the seascape. As such, MFC determines the ecological and evolutionary interdependency of populations, and ultimately the fate of species and ecosystems. Gathering effective MFC knowledge can therefore improve predictions of the impacts of environmental change and help to refine management and conservation strategies for the seas and oceans. Gathering these data are challenging however, as access to, and survey of marine ecosystems still presents significant challenge. Over 50 European institutions currently investigate aspects of MFC using complementary methods across multiple research fields, to understand the ecology and evolution of marine species. The aim of SEA-UNICORN, a COST Action supported by COST (European Cooperation in Science and Technology), is to bring together this research effort, unite the multiple approaches to MFC, and to integrate these under a common conceptual and analytical framework. The consortium brings together a diverse group of scientists to collate existing MFC data, to identify knowledge gaps, to enhance complementarity among disciplines, and to devise common approaches to MFC. SEA-UNICORN will promote co-working between connectivity practitioners and ecosystem modelers to facilitate the incorporation of MFC data into the predictive models used to identify marine conservation priorities. Ultimately, SEA-UNICORN will forge strong forward-working links between scientists, policy-makers and stakeholders to facilitate the integration of MFC knowledge into decision support tools for marine management and environmental policies.

Unifying approaches to Functional Marine Connectivity for improved marine resource management: the European SEA-UNICORN COST Action

Truly sustainable development in a human-altered, fragmented marine environment subject to unprecedented climate change, demands informed planning strategies in order to be successful. Beyond a simple understanding of the distribution of marine species, data describing how variations in spatio-temporal dynamics impact ecosystem functioning and the evolution of species are required. Marine Functional Connectivity (MFC) characterizes the flows of matter, genes and energy produced by organism movements and migrations across the seascape. As such, MFC determines the ecological and evolutionary interdependency of populations, and ultimately the fate of species and ecosystems. Gathering effective MFC knowledge can therefore improve predictions of the impacts of environmental change and help to refine management and conservation strategies for the seas and oceans. Gathering these data are challenging however, as access to, and survey of marine ecosystems still presents significant challenge. Over 50 European institutions currently investigate aspects of MFC using complementary methods across multiple research fields, to understand the ecology and evolution of marine species. The aim of SEA-UNICORN, a COST Action within the European Union Horizon 2020 framework programme, is to bring together this research effort, unite the multiple approaches to MFC, and to integrate these under a common conceptual and analytical framework. The consortium brings together a diverse group of scientists to collate existing MFC data, to identify knowledge gaps, to enhance complementarity among disciplines, and to devise common approaches to MFC. SEA-UNICORN will promote co-working between connectivity practitioners and ecosystem modelers to facilitate the incorporation of MFC data into the predictive models used to identify marine conservation priorities. Ultimately, SEA-UNICORN will forge strong forward-working links between scientists, policy-makers and stakeholders to facilitate the integration of MFC knowledge into decision support tools for marine management and environmental policies.

A portfolio of climate-tailored approaches to advance the design of marine protected areas in the Red Sea

Intensified coastal development is compromising the health and functioning of marine ecosystems. A key example of this is the Red Sea, a biodiversity hotspot subjected to increasing local human pressures. While some marine-protected areas (MPAs) were placed to alleviate these stressors, it is unclear whether these MPAs are managed or enforced, thus providing limited protection. Yet, most importantly, MPAs in the Red Sea were not designed using climate considerations, likely diminishing their effectiveness against global stressors. Here, we propose to tailor the design of MPAs in the Red Sea by integrating approaches to enhance climate change mitigation and adaptation. First, including coral bleaching susceptibility could produce a more resilient network of MPAs by safeguarding reefs from different thermal regions that vary in spatiotemporal bleaching responses, reducing the risk that all protected reefs will bleach simultaneously. Second, preserving the basin-wide genetic connectivity patterns that are assisted by mesoscale eddies could further ensure recovery of sensitive populations and maintain species potential to adapt to environmental changes. Finally, protecting mangrove forests in the northern and southern Red Sea that act as major carbon sinks could help offset greenhouse gas emissions. If implemented with multinational cooperation and concerted effort among stakeholders, our portfolio of climate-tailored approaches may help build a network of MPAs in the Red Sea that protects more effectively its coastal resources against escalating coastal development and climate instability. Beyond the Red Sea, we anticipate this study to serve as an example of how to improve the utility of tropical MPAs as climate-informed conservation tools.

Potential changes in the connectivity of marine protected areas driven by extreme ocean warming

Projected future climate scenarios anticipate a warmer tropical ocean and changes in surface currents that will likely influence the survival of marine organisms and the connectivity of marine protected areas (MPAs) networks. We simulated the regional effects of climate change on the demographic connectivity of parrotfishes in nine MPAs in the South Atlantic through downscaling of the HadGEM2-ES Earth System Model running the RCP 8.5 greenhouse gas trajectory. Results indicate a tropicalization scenario over the tropical southwest Atlantic following an increase of sea surface temperature (SST) between 1.8 and 4.5 °C and changes in mean surface currents between - 0.6 to 0.5 m s^-1 relative to present conditions. High mortality rates will reduce demographic connectivity and increase the isolation of oceanic islands. The simulation of organismal response to ocean warming shows that acclimation can significantly improve (p < 0.001) particle survival, promoting connectivity and tropicalization of MPAs, with potential impacts on their functional integrity and long-term resilience.

Spatial heterogeneity of mortality and diffusion rates determines larval delivery to adult habitats for coastal marine populations

Many benthic animals begin life with a planktonic larval stage during which coastal currents may move individuals far from shore. This trait is believed to allow individuals to develop away from nearshore predators and sibling competition, based on the assumption that mortality rates are weaker offshore. However, larvae developing offshore often fail to locate suitable coastal habitats. This results in a trade-off between nearshore mortality and offshore wastage with consequences for larval delivery to adult habitats that have not been fully appreciated. We use a reaction-diffusion model to show that when the nearshore larval mortality rate is high, larval supply can vary more than 10-fold with the offshore mortality rate. If this offshore rate is weak, then larval supply is maximized by an intermediate diffusion rate or larval duration. While a low-diffusivity coastal boundary layer typically improves the larval supply by decreasing wastage, it can also reduce the larval supply by preventing individuals from exploiting low offshore mortality rates. Finally, the cross-shore structure of the mortality rate may influence the alongshore transport of larvae by determining how far offshore they reside prior to settling, and, consequently, the alongshore currents they experience. Our observations contrast with the prior argument that larval supply decreases with diffusivity and larval duration due to wastage, and challenge the widespread decision to omit cross-shore heterogeneity from studies of alongshore movement. Scenarios in which spatial variability in the mortality rate has a large effect on recruitment are important both for understanding the biological consequences of the larval stage and from a modeling perspective.

Climate change considerations are fundamental to management of deep-sea resource extraction

Climate change manifestation in the ocean, through warming, oxygen loss, increasing acidification, and changing particulate organic carbon flux (one metric of altered food supply), is projected to affect most deep-ocean ecosystems concomitantly with increasing direct human disturbance. Climate drivers will alter deep-sea biodiversity and associated ecosystem services, and may interact with disturbance from resource extraction activities or even climate geoengineering. We suggest that to ensure the effective management of increasing use of the deep ocean (e.g., for bottom fishing, oil and gas extraction, and deep-seabed mining), environmental management and developing regulations must consider climate change. Strategic planning, impact assessment and monitoring, spatial management, application of the precautionary approach, and full-cost accounting of extraction activities should embrace climate consciousness. Coupled climate and biological modeling approaches applied in the water and on the seafloor can help accomplish this goal. For example, Earth-System Model projections of climate-change parameters at the seafloor reveal heterogeneity in projected climate hazard and time of emergence (beyond natural variability) in regions targeted for deep-seabed mining. Models that combine climate-induced changes in ocean circulation with particle tracking predict altered transport of early life stages (larvae) under climate change. Habitat suitability models can help assess the consequences of altered larval dispersal, predict climate refugia, and identify vulnerable regions for multiple species under climate change. Engaging the deep observing community can support the necessary data provisioning to mainstream climate into the development of environmental management plans. To illustrate this approach, we focus on deep-seabed mining and the International Seabed Authority, whose mandates include regulation of all mineral-related activities in international waters and protecting the marine environment from the harmful effects of mining. However, achieving deep-ocean sustainability under the UN Sustainable Development Goals will require integration of climate consideration across all policy sectors.

Incorporating climate change adaptation into marine protected area planning

Climate change is increasingly impacting marine protected areas (MPAs) and MPA networks, yet adaptation strategies are rarely incorporated into MPA design and management plans according to the primary scientific literature. Here we review the state of knowledge for adapting existing and future MPAs to climate change and synthesize case studies (n = 27) of how marine conservation planning can respond to shifting environmental conditions. First, we derive a generalized conservation planning framework based on five published frameworks that incorporate climate change adaptation to inform MPA design. We then summarize examples from the scientific literature to assess how conservation goals were defined, vulnerability assessments performed and adaptation strategies incorporated into the design and management of existing or new MPAs. Our analysis revealed that 82% of real-world examples of climate change adaptation in MPA planning derive from tropical reefs, highlighting the need for research in other ecosystems and habitat types. We found contrasting recommendations for adaptation strategies at the planning stage, either focusing only on climate refugia, or aiming for representative protection of areas encompassing the full range of expected climate change impacts. Recommendations for MPA management were more unified and focused on adaptative management approaches. Lastly, we evaluate common barriers to adopting climate change adaptation strategies based on reviewing studies which conducted interviews with MPA managers and other conservation practitioners. This highlights a lack of scientific studies evaluating different adaptation strategies and shortcomings in current governance structures as two major barriers, and we discuss how these could be overcome. Our review provides a comprehensive synthesis of planning frameworks, case studies, adaptation strategies and management actions which can inform a more coordinated global effort to adapt existing and future MPA networks to continued climate change.

Temporal variability modulates pH impact on larval sea urchin development: Themed Issue Article: Biomechanics and Climate Change

Coastal organisms reside in highly dynamic habitats. Global climate change is expected to alter not only the mean of the physical conditions experienced but also the frequencies and/or the magnitude of fluctuations of environmental factors. Understanding responses in an ecologically relevant context is essential for formulating management strategies. In particular, there are increasing suggestions that exposure to fluctuations could alleviate the impact of climate change-related stressors by selecting for plasticity that may help acclimatization to future conditions. However, it remains unclear whether the presence of fluctuations alone is sufficient to confer such effects or whether the pattern of the fluctuations matters. Therefore, we investigated the role of frequency and initial conditions of the fluctuations on performance by exposing larval sea urchin Heliocidaris crassispina to either constant or fluctuating pH. Reduced pH alone (pH 7.3 vs 8.0) did not affect larval mortality but reduced the growth of larval arms in the static pH treatments. Changes in morphology could affect the swimming mechanics for these small organisms, and geometric morphometric analysis further suggested an overall shape change such that acidified larvae had more U-shaped bodies and shorter arms, which would help maintain stability in moving water. The relative negative impact of lower pH, computed as log response ratio, on larval arm development was smaller when larvae were exposed to pH fluctuations, especially when the change was less frequent (48- vs 24-h cycle). Furthermore, larvae experiencing an initial pH drop, i.e. those where the cycle started at pH 8.0, were more negatively impacted compared with those kept at an initial pH of 7.3 before the cycling started. Our observations suggest that larval responses to climate change stress could not be easily predicted from mean conditions. Instead, to better predict organismal performance in the future ocean, monitoring and investigation of the role of real-time environmental fluctuations along the dispersive pathway is key.

Synthesizing and communicating climate change impacts to inform coastal adaptation planning

Planning for adaptation to climate change requires regionally relevant information on rising air and ocean temperatures, sea levels, increasingly frequent and intense storms, and other climate-related impacts. However, in many regions there are limited focused syntheses of the climate impacts, risks, and potential adaptation strategies for coastal marine areas and sectors. We report on a regional assessment of climate change impacts and recommendations for adaptation strategies in the NE Pacific Coast (British Columbia, Canada), conducted in collaboration with a regional planning and plan implementation partnership (Marine Plan Partnership for the North Pacific Coast), aimed at bridging the gaps between climate science and regional adaptation planning. We incorporated both social and ecological aspects of climate change impacts and adaptations, and the feedback mechanisms which may result in both increased risks and opportunities for the following areas of interest: “Ecosystems”, “Fisheries and Aquaculture”, “Communities”, and “Marine Infrastructure”. As next steps within the region, we propose proactive planning measures including communication of the key impacts and projections and cross-sectoral assessments of climate vulnerability and risk to direct decision-making.

Integrating climate adaptation and biodiversity conservation in the global ocean

The impacts of climate change and the socioecological challenges they present are ubiquitous and increasingly severe. Practical efforts to operationalize climate-responsive design and management in the global network of marine protected areas (MPAs) are required to ensure long-term effectiveness for safeguarding marine biodiversity and ecosystem services. Here, we review progress in integrating climate change adaptation into MPA design and management and provide eight recommendations to expedite this process. Climate-smart management objectives should become the default for all protected areas, and made into an explicit international policy target. Furthermore, incentives to use more dynamic management tools would increase the climate change responsiveness of the MPA network as a whole. Given ongoing negotiations on international conservation targets, now is the ideal time to proactively reform management of the global seascape for the dynamic climate-biodiversity reality.

A Decision Framework for Coastal Infrastructure to Optimize Biotic Resistance and Resilience in a Changing Climate

Coastal ecosystems are under growing pressure from human activities such as pollution and climate change. Although the rapidly growing numbers of humans living in coastal areas is a large part of the problem, there is great opportunity to improve the resistance and resilience of biotic communities via creative changes to the engineering design of built infrastructure. Here, we apply ecological theories to create a framework for adaptive building in marine systems that can be applied by managers worldwide. We explain how climate effects could be mitigated across different spatial scales with both physical and biological interventions. This requires an approach based on ecological theory that incorporates our understanding of how systems withstand (resistance) or recover (resilience) from impacts and takes into account future local and global environmental conditions. By translating ecological theory into practical application, we propose a framework for the choice and design of coastal infrastructure that can underpin effective, forward-looking conservation strategies.

Asymmetric oceanographic processes mediate connectivity and population genetic structure, as revealed by RADseq, in a highly dispersive marine invertebrate (Parastichopus californicus)

Marine populations are typically characterized by weak genetic differentiation due to the potential for long-distance dispersal favouring high levels of gene flow. However, strong directional advection of water masses or retentive hydrodynamic forces can influence the degree of genetic exchange among marine populations. To determine the oceanographic drivers of genetic structure in a highly dispersive marine invertebrate, the giant California sea cucumber (Parastichopus californicus), we first tested for the presence of genetic discontinuities along the coast of North America in the northeastern Pacific Ocean. Then, we tested two hypotheses regarding spatial processes influencing population structure: (i) isolation by distance (IBD: genetic structure is explained by geographic distance) and (ii) isolation by resistance (IBR: genetic structure is driven by ocean circulation). Using RADseq, we genotyped 717 individuals from 24 sampling locations across 2,719 neutral SNPs to assess the degree of population differentiation and integrated estimates of genetic variation with inferred connectivity probabilities from a biophysical model of larval dispersal mediated by ocean currents. We identified two clusters separating north and south regions, as well as significant, albeit weak, substructure within regions (F_ST  = 0.002, p = .001). After modelling the asymmetric nature of ocean currents, we demonstrated that local oceanography (IBR) was a better predictor of genetic variation (R²  = .49) than geographic distance (IBD) (R²  = .18), and directional processes played an important role in shaping fine-scale structure. Our study contributes to the growing body of literature identifying significant population structure in marine systems and has important implications for the spatial management of P. californicus and other exploited marine species.

The Eastern Tropical Pacific coral population connectivity and the role of the Eastern Pacific Barrier

Long-distance dispersal is believed to strongly influence coral reef population dynamics across the Tropical Pacific. However, the spatial scale and strength at which populations are potentially connected by dispersal remains uncertain. To determine the patterns in connectivity between the Eastern (ETP) and Central Tropical Pacific (CTP) ecoregions, we used a biophysical model incorporating ocean currents and larval biology to quantify the seascape-wide dispersal potential among all population. We quantified the likelihood and determined the oceanographic conditions that enable the dispersal of coral larvae across the Eastern Pacific Barrier (EP-Barrier) and identified the main connectivity pathways and their conservation value for dominant reef-building corals. Overall, we found that coral assemblages within the CTP and ETP are weakly connected through dispersal. Although the EP-Barrier isolates the ETP from the CTP ecoregion, we found evidence that the EP-Barrier may be breached, in both directions, by rare dispersal events. These rare events could explain the evolutionary genetic similarity among populations of pocilloporids in the ecoregions. Moreover, the ETP may function as a stronger source rather than a destination, providing potential recruits to CTP populations. We also show evidence for a connectivity loop in the ETP, which may positively influence long-term population persistence in the region. Coral conservation and management communities should consider eight-key stepping stone ecoregions when developing strategies to preserve the long-distance connectivity potential across the ETP and CTP.

Designing connected marine reserves in the face of global warming

Marine reserves are widely used to protect species important for conservation and fisheries and to help maintain ecological processes that sustain their populations, including recruitment and dispersal. Achieving these goals requires well-connected networks of marine reserves that maximize larval connectivity, thus allowing exchanges between populations and recolonization after local disturbances. However, global warming can disrupt connectivity by shortening potential dispersal pathways through changes in larval physiology. These changes can compromise the performance of marine reserve networks, thus requiring adjusting their design to account for ocean warming. To date, empirical approaches to marine prioritization have not considered larval connectivity as affected by global warming. Here, we develop a framework for designing marine reserve networks that integrates graph theory and changes in larval connectivity due to potential reductions in planktonic larval duration (PLD) associated with ocean warming, given current socioeconomic constraints. Using the Gulf of California as case study, we assess the benefits and costs of adjusting networks to account for connectivity, with and without ocean warming. We compare reserve networks designed to achieve representation of species and ecosystems with networks designed to also maximize connectivity under current and future ocean-warming scenarios. Our results indicate that current larval connectivity could be reduced significantly under ocean warming because of shortened PLDs. Given the potential changes in connectivity, we show that our graph-theoretical approach based on centrality (eigenvector and distance-weighted fragmentation) of habitat patches can help design better-connected marine reserve networks for the future with equivalent costs. We found that maintaining dispersal connectivity incidentally through representation-only reserve design is unlikely, particularly in regions with strong asymmetric patterns of dispersal connectivity. Our results support previous studies suggesting that, given potential reductions in PLD due to ocean warming, future marine reserve networks would require more and/or larger reserves in closer proximity to maintain larval connectivity.

Going with the flow: the role of ocean circulation in global marine ecosystems under a changing climate

Ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation and reduced productivity are widely considered to be the major stressors to ocean ecosystems induced by emissions of CO₂ . However, an overlooked stressor is the change in ocean circulation in response to climate change. Strong changes in the intensity and position of the western boundary currents have already been observed, and the consequences of such changes for ecosystems are beginning to emerge. In this study, we address climatically induced changes in ocean circulation on a global scale but relevant to propagule dispersal for species inhabiting global shelf ecosystems, using a high-resolution global ocean model run under the IPCC RCP 8.5 scenario. The ¼ degree model resolution allows improved regional realism of the ocean circulation beyond that of available CMIP5-class models. We use a Lagrangian approach forced by modelled ocean circulation to simulate the circulation pathways that disperse planktonic life stages. Based on trajectory backtracking, we identify present-day coastal retention, dominant flow and dispersal range for coastal regions at the global scale. Projecting into the future, we identify areas of the strongest projected circulation change and present regional examples with the most significant modifications in their dominant pathways. Climatically induced changes in ocean circulation should be considered as an additional stressor of marine ecosystems in a similar way to ocean warming or acidification.

Contrasting patterns of population structure and gene flow facilitate exploration of connectivity in two widely distributed temperate octocorals

Connectivity is an important component of metapopulation dynamics in marine systems and can influence population persistence, migration rates and conservation decisions associated with Marine Protected Areas (MPAs). In this study, we compared the genetic diversity, gene flow and population structure of two octocoral species, Eunicella verrucosa and Alcyonium digitatum, in the northeast Atlantic (ranging from the northwest of Ireland and the southern North Sea, to southern Portugal), using two panels of 13 and 8 microsatellite loci, respectively. Our results identified regional genetic structure in E. verrucosa partitioned between populations from southern Portugal, northwest Ireland and Britain/France; subsequent hierarchical analysis of population structure also indicated reduced gene flow between southwest Britain and northwest France. However, over a similar geographical area, A. digitatum showed little evidence of population structure, suggesting high gene flow and/or a large effective population size; indeed, the only significant genetic differentiation detected in A. digitatum occurred between North Sea samples and those from the English Channel/northeast Atlantic. In both species the vast majority of gene flow originated from sample sites within regions, with populations in southwest Britain being the predominant source of contemporary exogenous genetic variants for the populations studied. Overall, historical patterns of gene flow appeared more complex, though again southwest Britain appeared to be an important source of genetic variation for both species. Our findings have major conservation implications, particularly for E. verrucosa, a protected species in UK waters and listed by the IUCN as ‘Vulnerable’, and for the designation and management of European MPAs.

Evolution of movement rate increases the effectiveness of marine reserves for the conservation of pelagic fishes

Current debates about the efficacy of no‐take marine reserves (MR) in protecting large pelagic fish such as tuna and sharks have usually not considered the evolutionary dimension of this issue, which emerges because the propensity to swim away from a given place, like any other biological trait, will probably vary in a heritable fashion among individuals. Here, based on spatially explicit simulations, we investigated whether selection to remain in MRs to avoid higher fishing mortality can lead to the evolution of more philopatric fish. Our simulations, which covered a range of life histories among tuna species (skipjack tuna vs. Atlantic bluefin tuna) and shark species (great white sharks vs. spiny dogfish), suggested that MRs were most effective at maintaining viable population sizes when movement distances were lowest. Decreased movement rate evolved following the establishment of marine reserves, and this evolution occurred more rapidly with higher fishing pressure. Evolutionary reductions in movement rate led to increases in within‐reserve population sizes over the course of the 50 years following MR establishment, although this varied among life histories, with skipjack responding fastest and great white sharks slowest. Our results suggest the evolution of decreased movement can augment the efficacy of marine reserves, especially for species, such as skipjack tuna, with relatively short generation times. Even when movement rates did not evolve substantially over 50 years (e.g., given long generation times or little heritable variation), marine reserves were an effective tool for the conservation of fish populations when mean movement rates were low or MRs were large.

First genealogy for a wild marine fish population reveals multigenerational philopatry

Natal philopatry, the return of individuals to their natal area for reproduction, has advantages and disadvantages for animal populations. Natal philopatry may generate local genetic adaptation, but it may also increase the probability of inbreeding that can compromise persistence. Although natal philopatry is well documented in anadromous fishes, marine fish may also return to their birth site to spawn. How philopatry shapes wild fish populations is, however, unclear because it requires constructing multigenerational pedigrees that are currently lacking for marine fishes. Here we present the first multigenerational pedigree for a marine fish population by repeatedly genotyping all individuals in a population of the orange clownfish (Amphiprion percula) at Kimbe Island (Papua New Guinea) during a 10-y period. Based on 2927 individuals, our pedigree analysis revealed that longitudinal philopatry was recurrent over five generations. Progeny tended to settle close to their parents, with related individuals often sharing the same colony. However, successful inbreeding was rare, and genetic diversity remained high, suggesting occasional inbreeding does not impair local population persistence. Local reproductive success was dependent on the habitat larvae settled into, rather than the habitat they came from. Our study suggests that longitudinal philopatry can influence both population replenishment and local adaptation of marine fishes. Resolving multigenerational pedigrees during a relatively short period, as we present here, provides a framework for assessing the ability of marine populations to persist and adapt to accelerating climate change.

Identifying the key biophysical drivers, connectivity outcomes, and metapopulation consequences of larval dispersal in the sea

BACKGROUND

Population connectivity, which is essential for the persistence of benthic marine metapopulations, depends on how life history traits and the environment interact to influence larval production, dispersal and survival. Although we have made significant advances in our understanding of the spatial and temporal dynamics of these individual processes, developing an approach that integrates the entire population connectivity process from reproduction, through dispersal, and to the recruitment of individuals has been difficult. We present a population connectivity modelling framework and diagnostic approach for quantifying the impact of i) life histories, ii) demographics, iii) larval dispersal, and iv) the physical seascape, on the structure of connectivity and metapopulation dynamics. We illustrate this approach using the subtidal rocky reef ecosystem of Port Phillip Bay, were we provide a broadly-applicable framework of population connectivity and quantitative methodology for evaluating the relative importance of individual factors in determining local and system outcomes.

RESULTS

The spatial characteristics of marine population connectivity are primarily influenced by larval mortality, the duration of the pelagic larval stage, and the settlement competency characteristics, with significant variability imposed by the geographic setting and the timing of larval release. The relative influence and the direction and strength of the main effects were strongly consistent among 10 connectivity-based metrics.

CONCLUSIONS

These important intrinsic factors (mortality, length of the pelagic larval stage, and the extent of the precompetency window) and the spatial and temporal variability represent key research priorities for advancing our understanding of the connectivity process and metapopulation outcomes.