Epidemic Trends of Tuberculosis in China from 1990 to 2017: Evidence from the Global Burden of Disease Study

The temporal trend of tuberculosis burden in an aging population in China: a secondary data analysis from the GBD 2019

BACKGROUND

The rapid population aging in China has been a big challenge to achieve the goal of ending the global tuberculosis (TB) epidemic. This study aimed to describe the temporal trend of TB burden in China during 1990 ∼ 2019 and to evaluate the effect of age, period, and birth cohort on domestic TB burden, with a specific focus on the elderly.

METHODS

The trends of incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of TB among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) negative people were described using the data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study. Join-point regression model was applied to calculate the average annual percentage change (AAPC) of TB burden for different age groups. Age-period-cohort (APC) model was fitted for incidence and mortality, and relative risks (RR) were computed for each age group.

RESULTS

In 2019, the highest TB deaths (5.23 thousand, 95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 4.38 ∼ 6.17) and DALYs (155.18 thousand, 95%UI: 126.47 ∼ 190.55) were observed in the HIV-negative population aged 70 ∼ 74 years in China. The proportion of those aged ≥ 60 years in newly diagnosed TB patients without HIV coinfection increased from 23.82% in 1990 to 37.54% in 2019, while TB deaths rose from 48.70 to 68.64%. During the past 30 years, the AAPC of age-standardized mortality (-7.77, confidence interval [CI]: -8.44∼ -7.10) and DALYs (-7.48, 95% CI: -7.98∼ -6.97) among HIV-negative individuals have shown a decrease, while much slower in the age groups above 70-year-old. The period effect and cohort effect contributed to the decline of TB incidence and mortality, but the age effect led to increasing TB mortality, especially among the ages of 85 ∼ 89 years (RR = 4.59, 95% CI: 4.25 ∼ 4.95).

CONCLUSIONS

The burden of TB remains considerable in the elderly population in China. More actions should be taken to improve case finding and the quality of TB healthcare for this high-risk population.

Epidemiological Characteristics and Spatiotemporal Clustering of Pulmonary Tuberculosis Among Students in Southwest China From 2016 to 2022: Analysis of Population-Based Surveillance Data

Background

Pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB), as a respiratory infectious disease, poses significant risks of covert transmission and dissemination. The high aggregation and close contact among students in Chinese schools exacerbate the transmission risk of PTB outbreaks.

Objective

This study investigated the epidemiological characteristics, geographic distribution, and spatiotemporal evolution of student PTB in Chongqing, Southwest China, aiming to delineate the incidence risks and clustering patterns of PTB among students.

Methods

PTB case data from students monitored and reported in the Tuberculosis Information Management System within the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention were used for this study. Descriptive analyses were conducted to characterize the epidemiological features of student PTB. Spatial trend surface analysis, global and local spatial autocorrelation analyses, and disease rate mapping were performed using ArcGIS 10.3. SaTScan 9.6 software was used to identify spatiotemporal clusters of PTB cases.

Results

From 2016 to 2022, a total of 9920 student TB cases were reported in Chongqing, Southwest China, with an average incidence rate of 24.89/100,000. The incidence of student TB showed an initial increase followed by a decline, yet it remained relatively high. High school students (age: 13-18 years; 6649/9920, 67.03%) and college students (age: ≥19 years; 2921/9920, 29.45%) accounted for the majority of student PTB cases. Patient identification primarily relied on passive detection, with a high proportion of delayed diagnosis and positive etiological results. COVID-19 prevention measures have had some impact on reducing incidence levels, but the primary factor appears to be the implementation of screening measures, which facilitated earlier case detection. Global spatial autocorrelation analysis indicated Moran I values of >0 for all years except 2018, ranging from 0.1908 to 0.4645 (all P values were <.05), suggesting strong positive spatial clustering of student PTB cases across Chongqing. Local spatial autocorrelation identified 7 high-high clusters, 13 low-low clusters, 5 high-low clusters, and 4 low-high clusters. High-high clusters were predominantly located in the southeast and northeast parts of Chongqing, consistent with spatial trend surface analysis and spatiotemporal clustering results. Spatiotemporal scan analysis revealed 4 statistically significant spatiotemporal clusters, with the most likely cluster in the southeast (relative risk [RR]=2.87, log likelihood ratio [LLR]=574.29, P<.001) and a secondary cluster in the northeast (RR=1.99, LLR=234.67, P<.001), indicating higher reported student TB cases and elevated risks of epidemic spread within these regions.

Conclusions

Future efforts should comprehensively enhance prevention and control measures in high-risk areas of PTB in Chongqing to mitigate the incidence risk among students. Additionally, implementing proactive screening strategies and enhancing screening measures are crucial for early identification of student patients to prevent PTB outbreaks in schools.

Efficacy and safety of step-by-step Baduanjin exercise based on doctor-nurse-patient integration mode for pulmonary rehabilitation in patients after lobectomy due to pulmonary tuberculosis: a randomized controlled clinical trial

BACKGROUND

Some pulmonary tuberculosis patients may require lung resection surgery. Postoperative pulmonary rehabilitation is essential to restore the lung function and maintain quality of life. We aimed to study the pulmonary rehabilitation outcomes and complications of step-by-step Baduanjin exercise under a doctor-nurse-patient integration mode in patients after lobectomy due to pulmonary tuberculosis.

METHODS

We performed a randomized controlled clinical trial in patients undergoing lobectomy due to pulmonary tuberculosis between September 2017 and August 2021. Eligible patients were randomly assigned into the control group or interventional group. The control group received routine postoperative care. The interventional group received step-by-step Baduanjin exercise based on the doctor-nurse-patient integration mode in addition to the routine care. The primary outcomes were the pulmonary functions, including forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1), forced vital capacity (FVC), and FEV1/FVC. The secondary outcomes were the maximum walking distance in a 6-min walk test and postoperative pulmonary complications, including atelectasis, pneumonia, and respiratory failure.

RESULTS

A total of 100 patients were enrolled into the study, with 50 patients in the control and interventional groups. There were 60 female patients (60%). The mean patient age was 37.9 (± 2.8) years old. At the one- and two-month postoperative follow-ups, pulmonary function tests showed statistically significantly better performances in FEV1/prediction, FVC/prediction, and FEV1/FVC in the interventional group than the control group. The 6-min walk test also revealed longer walking distances in the interventional group than the control group. There were no statistically significant differences in postoperative complications between the two groups.

CONCLUSIONS

A step-by-step Baduanjin exercise regimen under the doctor-nurse-patient integration mode could safely improve pulmonary rehabilitation in patients after lobectomy due to pulmonary tuberculosis.

A conceptual framework on determinants of the integrated tuberculosis control model implementation in China

Improving the provision of tuberculosis (TB) care is both urgent and imperative to achieve the goals outlined in the End TB Strategy. China has initiated the integrated TB control model to enhance the quality of TB care Since 2012. Despite these efforts, the integrated TB control health system encounters numerous challenges in delivering effective TB care. The factors influencing TB care provision are intricate, and a conceptual framework to comprehend these potential determinants is currently lacking. To bridge this gap, this article proposed a conceptual framework that was developed through insights from the fields of both public management and health services, adjustment of PRISM model and elements, reference to the blocks of health system and reference to the framework of outcome indicators in implementation research. This conceptual framework included 4 modules which can be coherently and logically deduced, offered a multi-perspective understanding of the determinants to TB care, and hypothesized that the TB control services provided by the integrated TB control model is a public service and must be "patient-centered"; determinants of the integrated TB control model implementation can be divided into seven domains; the evaluation of the integrated TB control model implementation covers implementation outcomes and service outcomes. This framework offers the potential to guide empirical investigations, aiding in the understanding and identification of determinants, including barriers and facilitators, associated with the implementation of the integrated TB control health model. Furthermore, it serves as a valuable tool for developing interventions that address system-level barriers, drawing insights from the realms of public management and health services.

Regulatory role of Mycobacterium tuberculosis MtrA on dormancy/resuscitation revealed by a novel target gene-mining strategy

Introduction

The unique dormancy of Mycobacterium tuberculosis plays a significant role in the major clinical treatment challenge of tuberculosis, such as its long treatment cycle, antibiotic resistance, immune escape, and high latent infection rate.

Methods

To determine the function of MtrA, the only essential response regulator, one strategy was developed to establish its regulatory network according to high-quality genome-wide binding sites.

Results and discussion

The complex modulation mechanisms were implied by the strong bias distribution of MtrA binding sites in the noncoding regions, and 32.7% of the binding sites were located inside the target genes. The functions of 288 potential MtrA target genes predicted according to 294 confirmed binding sites were highly diverse, and DNA replication and damage repair, lipid metabolism, cell wall component biosynthesis, cell wall assembly, and cell division were the predominant pathways. Among the 53 pathways shared between dormancy/resuscitation and persistence, which accounted for 81.5% and 93.0% of the total number of pathways, respectively, MtrA regulatory genes were identified not only in 73.6% of their mutual pathways, but also in 75.4% of the pathways related to dormancy/resuscitation and persistence respectively. These results suggested the pivotal roles of MtrA in regulating dormancy/resuscitation and the apparent relationship between dormancy/resuscitation and persistence. Furthermore, the finding that 32.6% of the MtrA regulons were essential in vivo and/or in vitro for M. tuberculosis provided new insight into its indispensability. The findings mentioned above indicated that MtrA is a novel promising therapeutic target for tuberculosis treatment since the crucial function of MtrA may be a point of weakness for M. tuberculosis.

Computational Approaches for the Structure-Based Identification of Novel Inhibitors Targeting Nucleoid-Associated Proteins in Mycobacterium Tuberculosis

Implementation of computational tools in the identification of novel drug targets for Tuberculosis (TB) has been a promising area of research. TB has been a chronic infectious disease caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) localized primarily on the lungs and it has been one of the most successful pathogen in the history of mankind. Extensively arising drug resistivity in TB has made it a global challenge and need for new drugs has become utmost important.The involvement of Nucleoid-Associated Proteins (NAPs) in maintaining the structure of the genomic material and regulating various cellular processes like transcription, DNA replication, repair and recombination makes significant, has opened a new arena to find the drugs targeting Mtb. The current study aims to identify potential inhibitors of NAPs through a computational approach. In the present work we worked on the eight NAPs of Mtb, namely, Lsr2, EspR, HupB, HNS, NapA, mIHF and NapM. The structural modelling and analysis of these NAPs were carried out. Moreover, molecular interaction were checked and binding energy was identified for 2500 FDA-approved drugs that were selected for antagonist analysis to choose novel inhibitors targeting NAPs of Mtb. Drugs including Amikacin, streptomycin, kanamycin, and isoniazid along with eight FDA-approved molecules that were found to be potential novel targets for these mycobacterial NAPs and have an impact on their functions. The potentiality of several anti-tubercular drugs as therapeutic agents identified through computational modelling and simulation unlocks a new gateway for accomplishing the goal to treat TB.

Changes in tuberculosis burden and its associated risk factors in Guizhou Province of China during 2006-2020: an observational study

BACKGROUND

Understanding the trends of tuberculosis (TB) burden and its risk factors at the provincial level in the context of global End TB targets is crucial to identify the progress and challenges in TB control. We aimed to estimate the burden of TB and risk factors for death from 2006 to 2020 for the first time in Guizhou Province, China.

METHODS

Data were collected from the national TB surveillance system. Four indicators of TB burden and their corresponding age-standardized rates (ASRs), including incidence (ASIR), prevalence (ASPR), mortality (ASMR) and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) (ASDR), were estimated and stratified by year, age, gender and prefecture. Temporal trends of ASRs were presented by locally weighted regression, and the annual percentage change was calculated. The correlation between gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and ASRs was evaluated by Pearson correlation analysis. The associated risk factors for death in PTB patients were determined using logistic regression models.

RESULTS

A total of 557,476 pulmonary TB (PTB) cases and 11,234 deaths were reported, including 2233 (19.9%) TB specific deaths and 9001 (80.1%) deaths from other causes. The 15-year average incidence, prevalence and mortality rates were 94.6, 102.6 and 2.1 per 100,000 population, respectively. The average DALY rate was 0.60 per 1000 population. The ASIR and ASPR have shown downward trends since 2012, with the largest percentage decrease in 2020 (ASIR: -29.8%; ASPR: -30.5%). The number in TB specific deaths consistently decreased during the study period (P<0.001), while the increase in deaths from other causes drove the overall upward trend in ASMR and ASDR. Four ASRs remained high in males and 5 prefectures. GDP per capita was negatively associated with the ASIR, ASPR and ASDR (P<0.05). Among PTB patients, men, patients with no fixed job, those with a low GDP level, patients with increasing age, those previously treated, those with severe symptoms, those transferred in and those receiving directly observed treatment were more likely to suffer death.

CONCLUSION

Guizhou has made progress in reducing PTB cases and TB specific deaths over the last 15 years. Targeted interventions are needed to address these risk factors for death in PTB patients and high-risk areas.

How Integrated Digital Tools Can Improve Tuberculosis Medication Adherence: A Longitudinal Study in China

Background: Poor medication adherence remains one of the major problems in the treatment of tuberculosis (TB) patients, while digital technologies have been proven effective to improve the treatment results. However, reports on the effectiveness of comprehensive practice integrating different intervention methods and technologies are limited. The aim of this study is to evaluate the effectiveness of an integrated digital adherence intervention for TB patients. Methods: We developed a digital adherence intervention platform integrating instant WeChat message, electronic medication monitors (EMMs), and manual reminders. The primary goal of the platform was to improve the accessibility of digital adherence technologies, and thus improve treatment adherence. TB patients were newly diagnosed at 10 TB-designated hospitals and came from 220 communities, from January to June 2022. The basic characteristics and treatment adherence of TB patients in WeChat, EMM, and conventional groups were compared, and the influencing factors of high medication adherence were analyzed by logistic regression. Results: A total of 2,498 TB patients were enrolled in the study, 14.5% were managed by digital technologies, 9.5% by WeChat, and 5.0% by EMM, respectively. After intervention, the median medication rate of TB patients was significantly higher in the WeChat group (95.3%) and EMM group (95.7%) compared with that of the conventional group (83.8%). On the contrary, the median number of missed medications among patients of the conventional group (nine times) was significantly higher than that in the WeChat (three times) group and EMM (three times) group. The proportion of high adherence (adherence medication rate ≥90%) among TB patients was 64.7%, 64.5%, and 43.2% in WeChat, EMM, and conventional group, respectively. Conclusions: The application of the integrated digital adherence intervention platform could significantly improve medication adherence among TB patients. The accessibility of digital adherence technologies could be improved by integrating complementary technologies in practice.

Challenge of ending TB in China: tuberculosis control in primary healthcare sectors under integrated TB control model-a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

China has the third-largest burden of tuberculosis (TB) cases in the world with great challenges towards ending TB. Primary health care (PHC) sectors play a critical role in TB prevention and control in communities under the Chinese integrated TB control model. However, there is a lack of comprehensive review of research evidence on TB control in PHC sectors under the integrated TB control model in China.

METHODS

This review was conducted following the PRISMA guidelines. Articles published from 2012 to January 2022 were searched from four international and three Chinese databases. Studies conducted inside mainland China and relevant with TB control service in PHC sectors under the integrated model were included. After study selection, data extraction, and quality assessment, the meta-analysis was performed with RevMan using a random-effect model.When I2 was more than 50%, subgroup analysis was performed to explore possible reasons for heterogeneity. We also conducted a post hoc sensitivity analysis for outcomes after meta-analysis by exclusion of studies with a high risk of bias or classified as low quality.

RESULTS

Forty-three studies from 16 provinces/municipalities in China were included in this review, and most studies included were of medium quality. PHC sectors in East China delivered TB control service better overall than that in West China, especially in tracing of patients and TB case management (TCM). In meta-analyses, both the pooled arrival rate of tracing and pooled TCM rate in East China were higher than those in West China. TB patients had a low degree of willingness to receive TCM provided by healthcare workers in PHC sectors nationwide, especially among migrant TB patients. There were 9 studies reporting factors related to TB control service in PHC sectors, 6 (2 in East and 4 in West China) of which indentified several characteristics of patients as associated factors. The context of PHC sectors was demonstrated to influence delivery of TB control service in PHC sectors in 5 studies (3 in East, 1 in Middle and 1 in West China). Most studies on strategies to promoting TB control services in PHC sectors were conducted in East China and some of these studies identified several online and offline interventions and strategies improving patients' treatment compliance [pooled OR (95% CI): 7.81 (3.08, 19.19] and awareness of TB [pooled OR (95% CI): 6.86 (2.16, 21.72)].

CONCLUSION

It is of urgent need to improve TB control in PHC sector in China, particularly in West China. Formative and implementation research with rigorous design are necessary to develop comprehensive, context-specific, and patient-centered TB control strategies to promote ending TB in China.

Active Case Finding for Tuberculosis in Migrants: a Systematic Review

Background

Active case finding (ACF) is an alternative strategy to accelerate the identification of TB cases among the migrant population.

Objective

This study aimed to synthesize the evidence for the effectiveness of ACF TB in migrants.

Methods

This study uses the PRISMA model as a method of searching for journal articles in the databases of Google Scholar, ProQuest, EBSCO, ScienceDirect, Elsevier, and PubMed, as well as other sources such as textbooks and reports from 2017 to 2021 with the keywords "tuberculosis" AND "active case finding" AND "migrant". The search revealed 371 articles, of which 26 met the criteria for further discussion.

Results

Most studies show that the TB incidence among migrants is higher than in the local population. Factors leading to increased cases include lack of knowledge about the symptoms, high mobilization, social isolation, economic problems, and medication adherence that impact an advanced stage. Furthermore, it is also influenced by the low quality of health services, including accessibility, health facilities, health workers, and information. Therefore, Active Case Finding (ACF) is more effective in identifying cases of TB in the risk groups. This was conducted on migrants with increased notifications followed up with treatment.

Conclusion

ACF is effective approach in screening and diagnosing TB in the migrant group.

Temporal trends in mortality of tuberculosis attributable to high fasting plasma glucose in China from 1990 to 2019: a joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort analysis

Background

Nowadays, high fasting plasma glucose (HFPG) has been identified as the important risk factor contributing to the increased burden of diseases. But there remains a lack of research on tuberculosis (TB) mortality specifically attributable to HFPG. Thus, this study aims to explore the long-term trends in HFPG-related TB mortality in China from 1990 to 2019.

Methods

Data on HFPG-related TB mortality were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019. Analyzing the data using joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort methods adjusting for age, period, and cohort allowed us to assess the trends in TB mortality due to HFPG.

Results

The age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) of TB attributable to HFPG exhibited a downward trend in China from 1990 to 2019, with an average annual percentage change (AAPC) of -7.0 (95% CI, -7.5 to -6.6). Similar trends were found for male (AAPC of -6.5 [95% CI, -7.0 to -6.0]) and female (AAPC of -8.2 [95% CI, -8.5 to -7.9]), respectively. Local drifts curve with a U-shaped pattern reflected the AAPC of TB mortality due to HFPG across age groups. The greatest decline was observed in the age group of 60-64 years. The mortality rates related to HFPG first increased and then decreased with increasing age, peaking in the 55-59 age group. Our analysis of the period and cohort effects found that the rate ratios of TB mortality due to HFPG have decreased over the past three decades, more prominently in women. It is noteworthy that while both genders have seen a decline in HFPG-attributable TB mortality and risk, men have a higher risk and slightly less significant decline than women.

Conclusion

The present study shows that HFPG-related ASMRs and risk of TB in China decreased over the last 30 years, with similar trends observed in both men and women. In order to attain the recommended level set by the WHO, the effective strategies for glycemic control and management still needed to be implemented strictly to further decrease the burden of TB.

Investigating the intensity of social contacts associated with tuberculosis: a weighted networks model

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis is known as one of the principal health problems, especially in developing countries. This study aimed to visualize, statistically model, and describe the weighted networks to investigate the intensity of social contacts associated with tuberculosis.

METHODS

In this case-control study, we applied weighted network analysis to assess the network of person-time spent in stores, workplaces, restaurants, mosques, Police bases, homes, hospitals, colleges, hairdressers, schools, contact homes, health centers, cinemas, parks, and markets. Modules will be determined based on the similarities between the variables in a topology overlap matrix. The most important variables will be found considering the association between each variable and module eigenvalues.

RESULTS

The result shows the extracted modules of locations based on the connectivity followed by the person-time at each place. The correlation (p-value) between TB and the turquoise, blue, and brown modules was 0.058 (0.351), 0.004 (0.943), and 0.117 (0.039), respectively. The brown module is the most important one, demonstrating a significant connection between homes, contact homes, health centers, and hospitals. Therefore, an association was found between person-time in four places and the occurrence of TB.

CONCLUSION

The finding of this study showed that most transmission of tuberculosis infection occurs in homes, contact homes, health centers, and hospitals. These place evaluations allow the identification of people with more contact and in need of screening, so critically leading to the identification of more patients with active TB.

Unmet chronic care needs and insufficient nurse staffing to achieve universal health coverage in China: Analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Although China has made impressive progress towards Universal Health Coverage through the health system reform plan since 2009, chronic disease prevention and control implementations are still inadequate to meet the need at large. This study aims to quantify the acute and chronic care needs in China and examine the human resources for health and financial protection for the population to achieve Universal Health Coverage.

METHODS

The data on disability-adjusted life years, years lived with disability, and years of life lost in China were disaggregated from the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019 by age and sex based on acute care need or chronic care need. An auto-regressive integrated moving average model was deployed to predict the supply gap of physicians, nurses and midwives from 2020 to 2050. Out-of-pocket health expenditure was compared among China, Russia, Germany, the US, and Singapore to examine the current status of financial protection.

RESULTS

In 2019, conditions requiring chronic care accounted for 86.4% of all-cause, all-age disability-adjusted life years in China, while acute-care-need conditions accounted for 11.3%. Approximate 25.57% of disability-adjusted life years in communicable diseases and 94.32% in non-communicable diseases were caused by chronic care need conditions. Chronic care-need conditions accounted for more than 80% of both man and woman's disease burden. The proportion of disability-adjusted life years and years of life lost attributable to chronic care was greater than 90% in people aged 25 and up. The nurse and midwife supply will be in absolute shortage and unable to achieve effective universal health coverage effective coverage of 80% or 90% from 2020 to 2050, while the physician supply will be sufficient to maintain effective universal health coverage of 80% and reach 90% from 2036. The out-of-pocket health expenditure decreased with time but was still relatively higher than that of Germany, the US, and Singapore.

CONCLUSIONS

The present study demonstrates the chronic care needs outweigh those for acute care in China. Nurse supply and the financial protection for the poor were still inadequate to achieve Universal Health Coverage. Better workforce planning and concerted actions on chronic care prevention and control should be taken to meet the population's chronic care needs.

The past, present and future of tuberculosis treatment

Tuberculosis (TB) is an ancient infectious disease. Before the availability of effective drug therapy, it had high morbidity and mortality. In the past 100 years, the discovery of revolutionary anti-TB drugs such as streptomycin, isoniazid, pyrazinamide, ethambutol and rifampicin, along with drug combination treatment, has greatly improved TB control globally. As anti-TB drugs were widely used, multidrug-resistant (MDR) and extensively drug-resistant (XDR) strains of Mycobacterium tuberculosis emerged due to acquired genetic mutations, and this now presents a major problem for effective treatment. Genes associated with drug resistance have been identified, including katG mutations in isoniazid resistance, rpoB mutations in rifampin resistance, pncA mutations in pyrazinamide resistance, and gyrA mutations in quinolone resistance. The major mechanisms of drug resistance include loss of enzyme activity in prodrug activation, drug target alteration, overexpression of drug target, and overexpression of the efflux pump. During the disease process, Mycobacterium tuberculosis may reside in different microenvironments where it is expose to acidic pH, low oxygen, reactive oxygen species and anti-TB drugs, which can facilitate the development of non-replicating persisters and promote bacterial survival. The mechanisms of persister formation may include toxin-antitoxin (TA) modules, DNA protection and repair, protein degradation such as trans-translation, efflux, and altered metabolism. In recent years, the use of new anti-TB drugs, repurposed drugs, and their drug combinations has greatly improved treatment outcomes in patients with both drug-susceptible TB and MDR/XDR-TB. The importance of developing more effective drugs targeting persisters of Mycobacterium tuberculosis is emphasized. In addition, host-directed therapeutics using both conventional drugs and herbal medicines for more effective TB treatment should also be explored. In this article, we review historical aspects of the research on anti-TB drugs and discuss the current understanding and treatments of drug resistant and persistent tuberculosis to inform future therapeutic development.

Comparison of next-generation sequencing with traditional methods for pathogen detection in cases of lower respiratory tract infection at a community hospital in Eastern China

Lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI) is still a threat to human health. Metagenomics next-generation sequencing (NGS) provides an efficient and unbiased way to identify LRTI pathogens, and has been shown to have several advantages over traditional methods. However, its application is currently limited in low-resource settings. Our aim was to collect and analyze data on LRTI cases at a county-level community hospital in Eastern China over one year, in order to compare the efficiency of NGS and traditional methods including culture, nucleic acid amplification and antibody techniques. We performed NGS of bronchoalveolar lavage fluid (BALF) for pathogen identification in 71 patients with LRTI. We compared the detection rates, identified pathogens, and turnaround time of NGS with traditional methods. Pathogens were detected using traditional methods in 19 cases, and the results were compared with those obtained with the NGS technique in 60 cases. The pathogen detection rate of NGS (84.5%) was much higher than that of the traditional methods (26.8%). Moreover, with the traditional methods considered the gold standard, the consistency rate between NGS and traditional methods was 68.4%. For the 19 cases in which the traditional method was used, the main pathogens included invasive Aspergillus (5 cases), Pseudomonas aeruginosa (3 cases), Candida albicans (3 cases), and Staphylococcus aureus (2 cases). Among the 60 cases detected by NGS, the main pathogens included Mycobacterium (12 cases), Streptococcus pneumoniae (5 cases), Klebsiella pneumoniae (3 cases), P. aeruginosa (3 cases), Haemophilus influenzae (3 cases), and S. aureus (3 cases), Aspergillus (9 cases), Pneumocystis jiroveci (5 cases), C. albicans (3 cases), Human Papilloma Virus (9 cases), Epstein-Barr virus (8 cases), and parvovirus (6 cases). In addition, 2 cases of chlamydia and 1 case of mycoplasma infection were detected by NGS. The time taken to perform the NGS tests was significantly shorter than that taken with the traditional method. NGS analysis of bronchoalveolar lavage fluid, in combination with traditional pathogen detection methods, can improve the efficiency of pathogen detection. More attention should be paid to the regional epidemic characteristics of infectious pathogens in LRTI.

Age-Specific Pulmonary Tuberculosis Notification Rates - China, 2008-2018

What is already known about this topic?

The incidence of tuberculosis (TB) was declining in China but has plateaued in recent years.

What is added by this report?

Notifications of pulmonary TB declined by 27.7% between 2008 and 2018, with an average crude decline of 3.4% per year and an average age-adjusted decline of 4.3% per year. Notifications decreased faster among older people, but slower in western China; the combination of trends led to an inflection in 2016 in the overall notification trend from decreasing to stable.

What are the implications for public health practice?

Population ageing and geographic disparities slowed tuberculosis control progress in China. Enhanced, targeted, and proactive responses are recommended to achieve the End TB targets.

Factors associated with treatment outcomes of patients with drug-resistant tuberculosis in China: A retrospective study using competing risk model

Objectives

Drug-resistant tuberculosis remains a serious public health problem worldwide, particularly in developing countries, including China. This study determined treatment outcomes among a cohort in Guangzhou, China, and identified factors associated with them.

Methods

We initiated a retrospective study using drug-resistant TB data in Guangzhou from 2016 to 2020, managed by Guangzhou Chest Hospital. A competing risk model was used to identify the factors associated with treatment failure and death, as well as loss to follow-up (LTFU).

Results

A total of 809 patients were included in the study, of which 281 were under treatment. Of the remaining 528 who had clear treatment outcomes, the number and proportion of treatment success, treatment failure, death, and LTFU were 314 (59.5%), 14 (2.7%), 32 (6.0%), and 168 (31.8%), respectively. Being older and having cavities involving the upper lungs were risk factors for treatment failure and death, while non-Guangzhou household registration and interprovincial mobility were risk factors associated with LTFU.

Conclusion

Treatment failure and death were significantly associated with cavitation in the lungs, and LTFU was significantly associated with household registration and geographical mobility. Early identification of factors associated with different treatment outcomes is extremely important for policymakers, health experts, and researchers to implement appropriate strategies and measures to treat and manage the TB-infected population in China.

ACTIVATE-2: A Double-Blind Randomized Trial of BCG Vaccination Against COVID-19 in Individuals at Risk

In a recent study of our group with the acronym ACTIVATE, Bacillus Calmete-Guérin (BCG) vaccination reduced the occurrence of new infections compared to placebo vaccination in the elderly. Most benefit was found for respiratory infections. The ACTIVATE-2 study was launched to assess the efficacy of BCG vaccination against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). In this multicenter, double-blind trial, 301 volunteers aged 50 years or older were randomized (1:1) to be vaccinated with BCG or placebo. The trial end points were the incidence of COVID-19 and the presence of anti–severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (anti–SARS-CoV-2) antibodies, which were both evaluated through 6 months after study intervention. Results revealed 68% relative reduction of the risk to develop COVID-19, using clinical criteria or/and laboratory diagnosis, in the group of BCG vaccine recipients compared with placebo-vaccinated controls, during a 6-month follow-up (OR 0.32, 95% CI 0.13-0.79). In total, eight patients were in need of hospitalization for COVID-19: six in the placebo group and two in the BCG group. Three months after study intervention, positive anti–SARS-CoV-2 antibodies were noted in 1.3% of volunteers in the placebo group and in 4.7% of participants in BCG-vaccinated group. The ACTIVATE II trial did not meet the primary endpoint of the reduction of the risk for COVID-19 3 months after BCG vaccination; however, the secondary endpoint of the reduction of the risk for COVID-19 6 months after BCG vaccination was met. BCG vaccination may be a promising approach against the COVID-19 pandemic.

Drug Resistance Patterns and Trends in Patients with Suspected Drug-Resistant Tuberculosis in Dalian, China: A Retrospective Study

Purpose

The emergence of drug-resistant tuberculosis (DR-TB) represents a threat to the control of tuberculosis. This study aimed to estimate the patterns and trends of DR-TB in patients with suspected DR-TB. In addition, risk factors for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) were identified among suspected DR-TB patients in Dalian, China.

Patients and Methods

A total of 5661 patients with suspected DR-TB from Jan 1, 2013 to Dec 31, 2020 were included in the final analysis. The resistance pattern of all resistant strains was determined by drug susceptibility testing (DST) using the conventional Lowenstein-Jensen Proportion Method (LJ). DR-TB trends were estimated from 2013 to 2020. During the research period, the chi-square test was employed to analyze the significance of linear drug-resistance trends across time. Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression were performed to assess factors associated with MDR-TB.

Results

From 2013 to 2020, the resistance rates of rifampicin (RFP) and isoniazid (INH) decreased significantly, whereas the resistance rates of ethambutol (EMB) and streptomycin (SM) increased in patients with suspected DR-TB. From 2013 to 2020, the prevalence of DR-TB decreased in all patients from 34.71% to 28.01% with an average annual decrease of 3.02%. Among new cases, from 2013 to 2020, the prevalence of DR-TB (from 26.67% to 24.75%), RFP-resistant TB (RR-TB) (from 15.09% to 3.00%) and MDR-TB (from 6.08% to 2.62%) showed a significant downward trend. Among patients with a previous treatment history, DR-TB (from 54.70% to 37.50%), RR-TB (from 44.16% to 11.49%) and MDR-TB (from 26.90% to 10.34%) showed a significant downward trend from 2013 to 2020. Males (AOR 1.28, 95% CI 1.035–1.585), patients 45 to 64 years of age (AOR 1.75, 95% CI 1.342–2.284), patients 65 years and older (AOR 1.65, 95% CI 1.293–2.104), rural residents (AOR 1.24, 95% CI 1.014–1.519) and a previous treatment history (AOR 3.94, 95% CI 3.275–4.741) were risk factors for MDR-TB.

Conclusion

The prevalence of DR-TB, RR-TB and MDR-TB was significantly reduced from 2013 to 2020. Considerable progress has been made in the prevention and treatment of DR-TB during this period. However, the increasing rate of drug resistance in EMB and SM should be taken seriously. Suspected DR-TB patients who are male, older than 45 years of age, live in rural areas, and have a history of TB treatment should be given priority by health care providers.

[Comparison of nano-hydroxyapatite/polyamide 66 bioactive support and autologous iliac bone in bone grafting and fusion for elderly patients with lumbar tuberculosis]

Objective

To investigate the safety of nano-hydroxyapatite/polyamide 66 (n-HA/PA66) bioactive support in bone grafting and fusion for elderly patients with lumbar tuberculosis, and to analyze its effectiveness and advantages by comparing with autologous iliac bone grafting.

Methods

A retrospective analysis was performed on 48 elderly patients with lumbar tuberculosis who met the selection criteria between January 2017 and January 2020. The patients all underwent one-stage posterior pedicle screw internal fixation combined with anterior lesion removal and bone grafting and fusion, of which 23 cases applied n-HA/PA66 bioactive support+allogeneic bone graft (n-HA/PA66 group) and 25 cases applied autologous iliac bone graft (autologous iliac bone group). There was no significant difference between the two groups in gender, age, bone density, disease duration, lesion segment, and preoperative pain visual analogue scale (VAS) score, Japanese Orthopaedic Association (JOA) score, and Cobb angle ( P>0.05). The operation time, intraoperative blood loss, and postoperative complications, as well as the VAS score, JOA score, American Spinal Injury Association (ASIA) spinal cord injury grading, Cobb angle, and bone fusion were recorded and compared between the two groups.

Results

The operations were completed successfully in both groups. n-HA/PA66 group had significantly less operation time and intraoperative blood loss than the autologous iliac bone group ( P<0.05). All patients were followed up 12-24 months, with an average of 15.7 months. And the difference in follow-up time between the two groups was not significant ( P>0.05). Postoperative complications occurred in 3 cases (13%) in the n-HA/PA66 group and 10 cases (40%) in the autologous iliac group, and the difference in the incidence of complications between the two groups was significant ( χ 2=4.408, P=0.036). The postoperative VAS scores and JOA scores significantly improved when compared with the preoperative scores in both groups ( P<0.05), and the difference was significant ( P<0.05) between 2 weeks after operation and the last follow-up. The difference in VAS score at 2 weeks after operation was significant between the two groups ( P<0.05), and there was no significant difference ( P>0.05) at the other time points. At last follow-up, according to the ASIA grading, the effective improvement rate was 86% (18/21) in the n-HA/PA66 group and 90% (18/20) in the autologous iliac group, with no significant difference ( χ 2=0.176, P=0.675). Imaging review showed that grade Ⅰ bony fusion was obtained in both groups, and the fusion time of bone graft in the n-HA/PA66 group was significantly longer than that in the autologous iliac bone group ( P<0.05). There was no significant difference in the Cobb angle at each time point between the two groups ( P>0.05). No recurrence of tuberculosis, loosening or fracture of the internal fixator, or displacement of the bone graft was observed during follow-up.

Conclusion

In elderly patients with lumbar spine tuberculosis, the n-HA/PA66 bioactive support combined with allogeneic bone graft can effectively restore and maintain the fusion segment height and physiological curvature of the lumbar spine, and the fusion rate of bone graft is similar to that of autologous iliac bone, which can achieve better effectiveness.

Machine learning analysis of SERS fingerprinting for the rapid determination of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection and drug resistance

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Handheld Raman spectrometer is able to generate SERS spectra with sufficient quality for Mycobacterium tuberculosis detection.

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It is feasible to accurately discriminate Mtb-positive sputum from Mtb-negative sputum through SERS spectrometry.

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Pulmonary and extra-pulmonary Mtb strains were able to be accurately distinguished via SERS spectral analysis.

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Profiling of antibiotic resistance of Mtb strains was successfully achieved through machine learning analysis of SERS spectra.

Over the past decades, conventional methods and molecular assays have been developed for the detection of tuberculosis (TB). However, these techniques suffer limitations in the identification of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb), such as long turnaround time and low detection sensitivity, etc., not even mentioning the difficulty in discriminating antibiotics-resistant Mtb strains that cause great challenges in TB treatment and prevention. Thus, techniques with easy implementation for rapid diagnosis of Mtb infection are in high demand for routine TB diagnosis. Due to the label-free, low-cost and non-invasive features, surface enhanced Raman spectroscopy (SERS) has been extensively investigated for its potential in bacterial pathogen identification. However, at current stage, few studies have recruited handheld Raman spectrometer to discriminate sputum samples with or without Mtb, separate pulmonary Mtb strains from extra-pulmonary Mtb strains, or profile Mtb strains with different antibiotic resistance characteristics. In this study, we recruited a set of supervised machine learning algorithms to dissect different SERS spectra generated via a handheld Raman spectrometer with a focus on deep learning algorithms, through which sputum samples with or without Mtb strains were successfully differentiated (5-fold cross-validation accuracy = 94.32%). Meanwhile, Mtb strains isolated from pulmonary and extra-pulmonary samples were effectively separated (5-fold cross-validation accuracy = 99.86%). Moreover, Mtb strains with different drug-resistant profiles were also competently distinguished (5-fold cross-validation accuracy = 99.59%). Taken together, we concluded that, with the assistance of deep learning algorithms, handheld Raman spectrometer has a high application potential for rapid point-of-care diagnosis of Mtb infections in future.

Estimating the Effects of the COVID-19 Outbreak on the Reductions in Tuberculosis Cases and the Epidemiological Trends in China: A Causal Impact Analysis

Objective

COVID-19 may have a demonstrable influence on disease patterns. However, it remained unknown how tuberculosis (TB) epidemics are impacted by the COVID-19 outbreak. The purposes of this study are to evaluate the impacts of the COVID-19 outbreak on the decreases in the TB case notifications and to forecast the epidemiological trends in China.

Methods

The monthly TB incidents from January 2005 to December 2020 were taken. Then, we investigated the causal impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the TB case reductions using intervention analysis under the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) method. Next, we split the observed values into different training and testing horizons to validate the forecasting performance of the BSTS method.

Results

The TB incidence was falling during 2005–2020, with an average annual percentage change of −3.186 (95% confidence interval [CI] −4.083 to −2.281), and showed a peak in March–April and a trough in January–February per year. The BSTS method assessed a monthly average reduction of 14% (95% CI 3.8% to 24%) in the TB case notifications from January–December 2020 owing to COVID-19 (probability of causal effect=99.684%, P=0.003), and this method generated a highly accurate forecast for all the testing horizons considering the small forecasting error rates and estimated a continued downward trend from 2021 to 2035 (annual percentage change =−2.869, 95% CI −3.056 to −2.681).

Conclusion

COVID-19 can cause medium- and longer-term consequences for the TB epidemics and the BSTS model has the potential to forecast the epidemiological trends of the TB incidence, which can be recommended as an automated application for public health policymaking in China. Considering the slow downward trend in the TB incidence, additional measures are required to accelerate the progress of the End TB Strategy.

Forecasting the Tuberculosis Incidence Using a Novel Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition-Based Data-Driven Hybrid Model in Tibet, China

Objective

The purpose of this study is to develop a novel data-driven hybrid model by fusing ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD), seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA), with nonlinear autoregressive artificial neural network (NARNN), called EEMD-ARIMA-NARNN model, to assess and forecast the epidemic patterns of TB in Tibet.

Methods

The TB incidence from January 2006 to December 2017 was obtained, and then the time series was partitioned into training subsamples (from January 2006 to December 2016) and testing subsamples (from January to December 2017). Among them, the training set was used to develop the EEMD-SARIMA-NARNN combined model, whereas the testing set was used to validate the forecasting performance of the model. Whilst the forecasting accuracy level of this novel method was compared with the basic SARIMA model, basic NARNN model, error-trend-seasonal (ETS) model, and traditional SARIMA-NARNN mixture model.

Results

By comparing the accuracy level of the forecasting measurements including root-mean-square error, mean absolute deviation, mean error rate, mean absolute percentage error, and root-mean-square percentage error, it was shown that the EEMD-SARIMA-NARNN combined method produced lower error rates than the others. The descriptive statistics suggested that TB was a seasonal disease, peaking in late winter and early spring and a trough in autumn and early winter, and the TB epidemic indicated a drastic increase by a factor of 1.7 from 2006 to 2017 in Tibet, with average annual percentage change of 5.8 (95% confidence intervals: 3.5–8.1).

Conclusion

This novel data-driven hybrid method can better consider both linear and nonlinear components in the TB incidence than the others used in this study, which is of great help to estimate and forecast the future epidemic trends of TB in Tibet. Besides, under present trends, strict precautionary measures are required to reduce the spread of TB in Tibet.

Temporal Trends in Notification and Mortality of Tuberculosis in China, 2004-2019: A Joinpoint and Age-Period-Cohort Analysis

Tuberculosis (TB) remains a major public health problem in China and worldwide. In this article, we used a joinpoint regression model to calculate the average annual percent change (AAPC) of TB notification and mortality in China from 2004 to 2019. We also used an age–period–cohort (APC) model based on the intrinsic estimator (IE) method to simultaneously distinguish the age, period and cohort effects on TB notification and mortality in China. A statistically downward trend was observed in TB notification and mortality over the period, with AAPCs of −4.2% * (−4.9%, −3.4%) and −5.8% (−7.5%, −4.0%), respectively. A bimodal pattern of the age effect was observed, peaking in the young adult (aged 15–34) and elderly (aged 50–84) groups. More specifically, the TB notification risk populations were people aged 20–24 years and 70–74 years; the TB mortality risk population was adults over the age of 60. The period effect suggested that TB notification and mortality risks were nearly stable over the past 15 years. The cohort effect on both TB notification and mortality presented a continuously decreasing trend, and it was no longer a risk factor after 1978. All in all, the age effect should be paid more attention.

A case of concomitant pulmonary embolism and pulmonary tuberculosis in the era of COVID 19, a matter of cautious approach

Tuberculosis (TB) is known to the world for many years. It is associated with various complications and rarely with pulmonary embolism. However, due to its commonalities of presenting features with COVID 19, it can easily be missed and may be life threatening.

Prevalence of Multidrug-Resistant Tuberculosis in Dalian, China: A Retrospective Study

Purpose

Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) is the cause of serious health and economic burdens worldwide. The present study aimed to explore the initial and acquired drug-resistance rates among TB patients from 2012 to 2019 in Dalian, China. The effectiveness of MDR-TB prevention and control strategies were then evaluated.

Patients and Methods

Drug susceptibility testing (DST) was performed for 6429 diagnosed, culture-positive, Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) strains, including 4661 new cases and 1768 previously treated cases. Descriptive statistics were employed to calculate the frequencies and percentages of TB strains, and the average annual growth rates (AAGRs) for each strain were calculated. The Chi-square test was applied to examine the significance of linear drug-resistance trends over time during the study period.

Results

Over the eight-year study period, the percentages of both initial (from 9.01% to 4.82%) and acquired (from 40.85% to 9.09%) MDR-TB cases decreased significantly, AAGRs of 8.55% and 19.32%, respectively. Among new and previously treated TB patients, significant downtrends were observed for the rates of both initial and acquired MDR-TB among young and middle-aged individuals (P < 0.05). Additionally, among both new and previously treated TB patients, the percentages of individuals with drug resistance against isoniazid (INH), rifampicin (RFP), ofloxacin (OFX), and amikacin (AMK) decreased significantly (P < 0.05) from 2012 to 2019 in Dalian, China.

Conclusion

The initial and acquired multidrug resistance rates exhibited significantly decreasing trends from 2012 to 2019, suggesting that MDR-TB prevalence has been controlled effectively in Dalian, China. The MDR-TB epidemic was reversed in the short term by establishing feasible strategies for detection, diagnosis, treatment, and infection control.

Changes in newly notified cases and control of tuberculosis in China: time-series analysis of surveillance data

BACKGROUND

China has made progress in tuberculosis control, but this disease remains a burden in many regions of China. We performed time-series analysis to examine changes in the rates of newly notified and newly smear-positive cases of tuberculosis in different regions of China from 1997 to 2018 and assessed the effect of the current control program.

METHODS

National and provincial notification data on tuberculosis from 1997 to 2018, which covers 31 provinces in the mainland of China, were extracted from the Chinese public health science data center. The annual percentage changes in newly notified and smear-positive cases were analyzed using a joinpoint regression method.

RESULTS

There were 18 646 672 newly notified tuberculosis cases from 1997 to 2018, with the greatest number in 2005. A total of 6 605 414 of these cases (35.42%) were smear-positive cases. The number of newly notified cases in China overall decreased (96.88-59.27 cases per 100 000) significantly during the most recent years. The decline during this period ranged from -3.9% (95% CI -5.7 to -2.9) in the western region to -4.3% (95% CI -4.8 to -3.7) in the eastern region. Most provinces had significant declines in newly notified and smear-positive cases, whereas the decline of newly smear-positive cases in Xinjiang was about half of that observed during the same period in China overall (-4.1% vs -9.9%). In addition to disparities in annual percentage changes, the rate of newly notified cases was higher in the western region than in the eastern and central regions.

CONCLUSIONS

The burden of tuberculosis has been on declining throughout China during recent years, but tuberculosis in western China continues to be a public health emergency that needs to be urgently addressed. Effective prevention and control strategies are needed for regions with high disease burdens and those with increasing or unchanging numbers of newly notified and smear-positive cases of tuberculosis.

Epidemiological Trends in the Form of Childhood Tuberculosis in a Referral Tuberculosis Hospital in Shandong, China

Background

In China, the prevalence of tuberculosis (TB) diseases and epidemiological trends in the TB forms among children are still unclear; a retrospective study was conducted aiming to assess it.

Methods

Between January 2007 and September 2020, 1577 consecutive childhood TB patients (aged ≤ 15 years) were included in the study. Data, including demographic information and underlying diseases, were collected from medical records. Then, patients were categorized and reported according to the anatomical site of TB disease. To analyze the epidemiological trends in the proportion of each form of TB disease, a linear-by-linear association was used, and a P value of <0.05 was considered to indicate that a significant change had occurred in the proportion of TB disease over the studied period.

Results

During the fourteen-year study period, a total of 1577 children patients were enrolled, including 954 boys (60.5%) and 623 girls (39.5%), with a mean age of 9.26 ± 5.18 years. Among the studied patients, 810 (51.4%) patients have pulmonary TB, 1137 (72.1%) have extrapulmonary TB, 372 (23.6%) have both conditions, and another 765 (48.5%) extrapulmonary cases presented in isolated form. Pleural TB (29.0%) and tuberculous lymphadenitis (23.7%) were the most frequent two forms of childhood TB. In addition, during the past decade, the proportions of pulmonary TB, pleural TB, and tuberculous lymphadenitis showed an increasing trend (all P < 0.05). However, no significant trends in the proportions of other forms of TB disease, such as extrapulmonary TB (P > 0.05), tuberculous meningitis (P > 0.05), endobronchial TB (P > 0.05), and disseminated TB (P > 0.05), were found.

Conclusion

Our findings suggest that childhood TB is facing new challenges, and the policy should be adjusted timely to fit the real situation.