Too Far to Care? Measuring Public Attention and Fear for Ebola Using Twitter

How Does Psychological Distance Influence Public Risky Behavior During Public Health Emergencies

Background

Public health emergencies not only threaten the physical and mental health of the public but also trigger a series of risky behaviors of the public, which in turn lead to the emergence or intensification of risk events, disrupting existing economic and social order.

Purpose

Based on construal level theory, cognitive appraisal theory of emotions and mood maintenance hypothesis, the study aims to investigate the collectively effect of risk perception and psychological insecurity in the connection between psychological distance and public risky behavior.

Participants and Methods

Cross-sectional data was derived from 257 China urban residents. All participants finished the psychological distance scale, risk perception scale, psychological insecurity scale, and risky behavior scale. The research hypothesis was tested using the PROCESS macro.

Results

The direct impact of psychological distance on risky behavior was not significant (β=-0.018, p>0.05). The indirect impact of psychological distance on risky behavior was significant. In other words, the impact of psychological distance on risky behavior was serially mediated via risk perception and psychological insecurity (β=0.011, 95% CI= [0.0013, 0.025]).

Conclusion

Risk perception and psychological insecurity play serial mediating roles in the relationship between psychological distance and public risky behavior. We conclude that during public health emergencies, public health managers should pay extra attention to the risk perception and psychological insecurity level of the public with closer psychological distance, take measures to reduce their risk perception, enhance their psychological security, and reduce their risky behavior, thereby ensuring the physical and mental health of the public and maintaining the stability of economic and social order.

The use of fear appeals for pandemic compliance: A systematic review of empirical measurement, fear appeal strategies and effectiveness

Interventions to pandemic outbreaks are often associated with the use of fear-appeal to trigger behavioral change, especially in public health issues. However, no systematic review exists in the literature on the effectiveness of fear appeal strategies in the context of pandemic compliance. This paper aims at providing systematic literature review that answers the following thought-provoking research questions: (1) What is the standard measurement of fear in relation to pandemics in the existing literature? (2) What are the fear appeal strategies used in the empirical literature? (3) How effective are fear appeal strategies in changing behavior toward adopting pandemic preventive measures? A total of 22 studies were selected from 455 potential studies, following a comprehensive literature search and assessment in accordance with the PRISMA guidelines. The findings show that nearly all the available studies on fear measurement used the Likert scale (as the standard approach) with different points of degree and fear appeal strategies such as fear triggers in media channels, print advertisements, and verbal descriptions. Furthermore, most studies conclude that fear appeal is effective in making participants adopt pandemic preventive measures; hence, it is effective for positive behavioral change (the degree of effectiveness depends on gender, population group, etc.), especially when combined with self-efficacy and socio-cultural considerations. Very few studies, however, find an insignificant association, arguably due to the kind and intensity of the fear appeal messages and strategies used.

Staying Home, Tweeting Hope: Mixed Methods Study of Twitter Sentiment Geographical Index During US Stay-At-Home Orders

BACKGROUND

Stay-at-home orders were one of the controversial interventions to curb the spread of COVID-19 in the United States. The stay-at-home orders, implemented in 51 states and territories between March 7 and June 30, 2020, impacted the lives of individuals and communities and accelerated the heavy usage of web-based social networking sites. Twitter sentiment analysis can provide valuable insight into public health emergency response measures and allow for better formulation and timing of future public health measures to be released in response to future public health emergencies.

OBJECTIVE

This study evaluated how stay-at-home orders affect Twitter sentiment in the United States. Furthermore, this study aimed to understand the feedback on stay-at-home orders from groups with different circumstances and backgrounds. In addition, we particularly focused on vulnerable groups, including older people groups with underlying medical conditions, small and medium enterprises, and low-income groups.

METHODS

We constructed a multiperiod difference-in-differences regression model based on the Twitter sentiment geographical index quantified from 7.4 billion geo-tagged tweets data to analyze the dynamics of sentiment feedback on stay-at-home orders across the United States. In addition, we used moderated effects analysis to assess differential feedback from vulnerable groups.

RESULTS

We combed through the implementation of stay-at-home orders, Twitter sentiment geographical index, and the number of confirmed cases and deaths in 51 US states and territories. We identified trend changes in public sentiment before and after the stay-at-home orders. Regression results showed that stay-at-home orders generated a positive response, contributing to a recovery in Twitter sentiment. However, vulnerable groups faced greater shocks and hardships during the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, economic and demographic characteristics had a significant moderating effect.

CONCLUSIONS

This study showed a clear positive shift in public opinion about COVID-19, with this positive impact occurring primarily after stay-at-home orders. However, this positive sentiment is time-limited, with 14 days later allowing people to be more influenced by the status quo and trends, so feedback on the stay-at-home orders is no longer positively significant. In particular, negative sentiment is more likely to be generated in states with a large proportion of vulnerable groups, and the policy plays a limited role. The pandemic hit older people, those with underlying diseases, and small and medium enterprises directly but hurt states with cross-cutting economic situations and more complex demographics over time. Based on large-scale Twitter data, this sociological perspective allows us to monitor the evolution of public opinion more directly, assess the impact of social events on public opinion, and understand the heterogeneity in the face of pandemic shocks.

Web-based surveillance of respiratory infection outbreaks: retrospective analysis of Italian COVID-19 epidemic waves using Google Trends

Introduction

Large-scale diagnostic testing has been proven insufficient to promptly monitor the spread of the Coronavirus disease 2019. Electronic resources may provide better insight into the early detection of epidemics. We aimed to retrospectively explore whether the Google search volume has been useful in detecting Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus outbreaks early compared to the swab-based surveillance system.

Methods

The Google Trends website was used by applying the research to three Italian regions (Lombardy, Marche, and Sicily), covering 16 million Italian citizens. An autoregressive-moving-average model was fitted, and residual charts were plotted to detect outliers in weekly searches of five keywords. Signals that occurred during periods labelled as free from epidemics were used to measure Positive Predictive Values and False Negative Rates in anticipating the epidemic wave occurrence.

Results

Signals from "fever," "cough," and "sore throat" showed better performance than those from "loss of smell" and "loss of taste." More than 80% of true epidemic waves were detected early by the occurrence of at least an outlier signal in Lombardy, although this implies a 20% false alarm signals. Performance was poorer for Sicily and Marche.

Conclusion

Monitoring the volume of Google searches can be a valuable tool for early detection of respiratory infectious disease outbreaks, particularly in areas with high access to home internet. The inclusion of web-based syndromic keywords is promising as it could facilitate the containment of COVID-19 and perhaps other unknown infectious diseases in the future.

How Sociotechnical Realignment and Sentiments Concerning Remote Work are Related – Insights from the COVID-19 Pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic forced sociotechnical systems (STS) to highly integrate remote work. Large-scale analyses show that the positivity of tweets about work from home decreased until COVID-19 was declared a pandemic by the WHO and re-increased in the weeks that followed. Nevertheless, it is unclear if this reaction is due to personal and organizational developments or if it mirrors the realignment of entire STS. The present study uses Q methodology to identify differences in how STS realign to the externally enforced integration of remote work. Only STS that reach a state of high alignment to remote work conditions by successfully shifting communication and procedures to digital spheres can be considered resilient. The results show that employees describe their personal experiences with remote work as more positive the higher their level of sociotechnical realignment. Furthermore, personal digital resilience is correlated to successful STS realignment as well. The results confirm the importance of realigning not only the technical and social components of STS but above all their sociotechnical interaction. Negative sentiments relate in particular to the low realization of humanistic objectives in STS.

"Bed bugs live in dirty places"-How Using Live Animals in Teaching Contributes to Reducing Stigma, Disgust, Psychological Stigma, and Misinformation in Students

Bed bugs are on the rise and are increasingly perceived as harmful parasites. Because individuals affected by bed bugs often feel disgust and shame and are stigmatized, bed bugs are an important public health and environmental justice concern and therefore a health education issue as well. In this quasi-experimental study, we examine how different constructs, namely, forms of stigma, disgust, psychological distance, and myths about bed bugs (dependent variables), change over time (pre/posttest) in response to two forms of teaching intervention (independent variables) in upper secondary-level high school. The content of the interventions was the same, but in class, we showed live bed bugs to one group of students, assuming this would lead to a more realistic, less imaginative response to bed bugs than in the group presented with only pictures of bed bugs. Together with previous studies, we assumed that live bed bugs would be perceived as less disgusting and with a lower degree of stigmatization. Our results show that stigma, psychological distance, and myths can be reduced through intervention (regardless of live animal or picture). Disgust was more strongly reduced by live animals than by pictures. We present implications for biology education and contemporary health education.

Big data and infectious disease epidemiology: A bibliometric analysis and research agenda

BACKGROUND

Infectious diseases represent a major challenge for health systems worldwide. With the recent global pandemic of COVID-19, the need to research strategies to treat these health problems has become even more pressing. Although the literature on big data and data science in health has grown rapidly, few studies have synthesized these individual studies, and none has identified the utility of big data in infectious disease surveillance and modeling.

OBJECTIVE

This paper aims to synthesize research and identify hotspots of big data in infectious disease epidemiology.

METHODS

Bibliometric data from 3054 documents that satisfied the inclusion criteria were retrieved from the Web of Science database over 22 years (2000-2022) were analyzed and reviewed. The search retrieval occurred on October 17, 2022. Bibliometric analysis was performed to illustrate the relationships between research constituents, topics, and key terms in the retrieved documents.

RESULTS

The bibliometric analysis revealed internet searches and social media as the most utilized big data sources for infectious disease surveillance or modeling. It also placed the US and Chinese institutions as leaders in this research area. Disease monitoring and surveillance, utility of electronic health (or medical) records, methodology framework for infodemiology tools, and machine/deep learning were identified as the core research themes.

CONCLUSIONS

Proposals for future studies are made based on these findings. This study will provide healthcare informatics scholars with a comprehensive understanding of big data research in infectious disease epidemiology.

Modeling COVID-19 incidence with Google Trends

Infodemiologic methods could be used to enhance modeling infectious diseases. It is of interest to verify the utility of these methods using a Nigerian case study. We used Google Trends data to track COVID-19 incidences and assessed whether they could complement traditional data based solely on reported case numbers. Data on the Nigerian weekly COVID-19 cases spanning through March 1, 2020, to May 31, 2021, were matched with internet search data from Google Trends. The reported weekly incidence numbers and the GT data were split into training and testing sets. ARIMA models were fitted to describe reported weekly COVID cases using the training set. Several COVID-related search terms were theoretically and empirically assessed for initial screening. The utilized Google Trends (GT) variable was added to the ARIMA model as a regressor. Model forecasts, both with and without GTD, were compared with weekly cases in the test set over 13 weeks. Forecast accuracies were compared visually and using RMSE (root mean square error) and MAE (mean average error). Statistical significance of the difference in predictions was determined with the two-sided Diebold-Mariano test. Preliminary results of contemporaneous correlations between COVID-related search terms and weekly COVID cases reveal “loss of smell,” “loss of taste,” “fever” (in order of magnitude) as significantly associated with the official cases. Predictions of the ARIMA model using solely reported case numbers resulted in an RMSE (root mean squared error) of 411.4 and mean absolute error (MAE) of 354.9. The GT expanded model achieved better forecasting accuracy (RMSE: 388.7 and MAE = 340.1). Corrected Akaike Information Criteria also favored the GT expanded model (869.4 vs. 872.2). The difference in predictive performances was significant when using a two-sided Diebold-Mariano test (DM = 6.75, p < 0.001) for the 13 weeks. Google trends data enhanced the predictive ability of a traditionally based model and should be considered a suitable method to enhance infectious disease modeling.

Sentiment analysis of COVID-19 social media data through machine learning

Pandemics are a severe threat to lives in the universe and our universe encounters several pandemics till now. COVID-19 is one of them, which is a viral infectious disease that increased morbidity and mortality worldwide. This has a negative impact on countries' economies, as well as social and political concerns throughout the world. The growths of social media have witnessed much pandemic-related news and are shared by many groups of people. This social media news was also helpful to analyze the effects of the pandemic clearly. Twitter is one of the social media networks where people shared COVID-19 related news in a wider range. Meanwhile, several approaches have been proposed to analyze the COVID-19 related sentimental analysis. To enhance the accuracy of sentimental analysis, we have proposed a novel approach known as Sentimental Analysis of Twitter social media Data (SATD). Our proposed method is based on five different machine learning models such as Logistic Regression, Random Forest Classifier, Multinomial NB Classifier, Support Vector Machine, and Decision Tree Classifier. These five classifiers possess various advantages and hence the proposed approach effectively classifies the tweets from the Twint. Experimental analyses are made and these classifier models are used to calculate different values such as precision, recall, f1-score, and support. Moreover, the results are also represented as a confusion matrix, accuracy, precision, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) graphs. From the experimental and discussion section, it is obtained that the accuracy of our proposed classifier model is high.

Unmasking the Twitter Discourses on Masks During the COVID-19 Pandemic: User Cluster-Based BERT Topic Modeling Approach

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic has spotlighted the politicization of public health issues. A public health monitoring tool must be equipped to reveal a public health measure's political context and guide better interventions. In its current form, infoveillance tends to neglect identity and interest-based users, hence being limited in exposing how public health discourse varies by different political groups. Adopting an algorithmic tool to classify users and their short social media texts might remedy that limitation.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to implement a new computational framework to investigate discourses and temporal changes in topics unique to different user clusters. The framework was developed to contextualize how web-based public health discourse varies by identity and interest-based user clusters. We used masks and mask wearing during the early stage of the COVID-19 pandemic in the English-speaking world as a case study to illustrate the application of the framework.

METHODS

We first clustered Twitter users based on their identities and interests as expressed through Twitter bio pages. Exploratory text network analysis reveals salient political, social, and professional identities of various user clusters. It then uses BERT Topic modeling to identify topics by the user clusters. It reveals how web-based discourse has shifted over time and varied by 4 user clusters: conservative, progressive, general public, and public health professionals.

RESULTS

This study demonstrated the importance of a priori user classification and longitudinal topical trends in understanding the political context of web-based public health discourse. The framework reveals that the political groups and the general public focused on the science of mask wearing and the partisan politics of mask policies. A populist discourse that pits citizens against elites and institutions was identified in some tweets. Politicians (such as Donald Trump) and geopolitical tensions with China were found to drive the discourse. It also shows limited participation of public health professionals compared with other users.

CONCLUSIONS

We conclude by discussing the importance of a priori user classification in analyzing web-based discourse and illustrating the fit of BERT Topic modeling in identifying contextualized topics in short social media texts.

Analysis and Prediction of User Sentiment on COVID-19 Pandemic Using Tweets

The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has dramatically affected people’s daily lives worldwide. More specifically, since there is still insufficient access to vaccines and no straightforward, reliable treatment for COVID-19, every country has taken the appropriate precautions (such as physical separation, masking, and lockdown) to combat this extremely infectious disease. As a result, people invest much time on online social networking platforms (e.g., Facebook, Reddit, LinkedIn, and Twitter) and express their feelings and thoughts regarding COVID-19. Twitter is a popular social networking platform, and it enables anyone to use tweets. This research used Twitter datasets to explore user sentiment from the COVID-19 perspective. We used a dataset of COVID-19 Twitter posts from nine states in the United States for fifteen days (from 1 April 2020, to 15 April 2020) to analyze user sentiment. We focus on exploiting machine learning (ML), and deep learning (DL) approaches to classify user sentiments regarding COVID-19. First, we labeled the dataset into three groups based on the sentiment values, namely positive, negative, and neutral, to train some popular ML algorithms and DL models to predict the user concern label on COVID-19. Additionally, we have compared traditional bag-of-words and term frequency-inverse document frequency (TF-IDF) for representing the text to numeric vectors in ML techniques. Furthermore, we have contrasted the encoding methodology and various word embedding schemes, such as the word to vector (Word2Vec) and global vectors for word representation (GloVe) versions, with three sets of dimensions (100, 200, and 300) for representing the text to numeric vectors for DL approaches. Finally, we compared COVID-19 infection cases and COVID-19-related tweets during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Highlighting COVID-19 racial disparities can reduce support for safety precautions among White U.S. residents

U.S. media has extensively covered racial disparities in COVID-19 infections and deaths, which may ironically reduce public concern about COVID-19. In two preregistered studies (conducted in the fall of 2020), we examined whether perceptions of COVID-19 racial disparities predict White U.S. residents’ attitudes toward COVID-19. Utilizing a correlational design (N = 498), we found that those who perceived COVID-19 racial disparities to be greater reported reduced fear of COVID-19, which predicted reduced support for COVID-19 safety precautions. In Study 2, we manipulated exposure to information about COVID-19 racial disparities (N = 1,505). Reading about the persistent inequalities that produced COVID-19 racial disparities reduced fear of COVID-19, empathy for those vulnerable to COVID-19, and support for safety precautions. These findings suggest that publicizing racial health disparities has the potential to create a vicious cycle wherein raising awareness reduces support for the very policies that could protect public health and reduce disparities.

Methods and Applications of Social Media Monitoring of Mental Health During Disasters: Scoping Review

BACKGROUND

With the increasing frequency and magnitude of disasters internationally, there is growing research and clinical interest in the application of social media sites for disaster mental health surveillance. However, important questions remain regarding the extent to which unstructured social media data can be harnessed for clinically meaningful decision-making.

OBJECTIVE

This comprehensive scoping review synthesizes interdisciplinary literature with a particular focus on research methods and applications.

METHODS

A total of 6 health and computer science databases were searched for studies published before April 20, 2021, resulting in the identification of 47 studies. Included studies were published in peer-reviewed outlets and examined mental health during disasters or crises by using social media data.

RESULTS

Applications across 31 mental health issues were identified, which were grouped into the following three broader themes: estimating mental health burden, planning or evaluating interventions and policies, and knowledge discovery. Mental health assessments were completed by primarily using lexical dictionaries and human annotations. The analyses included a range of supervised and unsupervised machine learning, statistical modeling, and qualitative techniques. The overall reporting quality was poor, with key details such as the total number of users and data features often not being reported. Further, biases in sample selection and related limitations in generalizability were often overlooked.

CONCLUSIONS

The application of social media monitoring has considerable potential for measuring mental health impacts on populations during disasters. Studies have primarily conceptualized mental health in broad terms, such as distress or negative affect, but greater focus is required on validating mental health assessments. There was little evidence for the clinical integration of social media-based disaster mental health monitoring, such as combining surveillance with social media-based interventions or developing and testing real-world disaster management tools. To address issues with study quality, a structured set of reporting guidelines is recommended to improve the methodological quality, replicability, and clinical relevance of future research on the social media monitoring of mental health during disasters.

Analysis of Bitcoin’s price spike in context of Elon Musk’s Twitter activity

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to explore the effect of Elon Musk’s Twitter bio change on January 29, 2021 on the discourse around Bitcoin (BTC) on Twitter and to understand how these changes relate to the changes in Bitcoin price around that time.

Design/methodology/approach

This study implements sentiment analysis and text mining on Twitter data to explore changes in public sentiments toward Bitcoin after Elon Musk’s Twitter bio change. Furthermore, it uses Bitcoin price data obtained from the Binance exchange to understand its relation with Twitter discussion.

Findings

Elon Musk’s bio change on Twitter on January 29 increased the tweet volume mentioning Bitcoin. This increase in tweets had a strong positive correlation with Bitcoin price and preceded the rise in Bitcoin price. Although the bio change had an apparent effect on the tweet volume, there was no considerable effect on the tweet sentiments, indicating that tweet sentiment is a poor predictor of Bitcoin price.

Originality/value

This paper proposes an understanding of how social media influencers, like Elon Musk, affect the discourse around Bitcoin and can, in turn, have an impact on Bitcoin price.

Harnessing Twitter data to survey public attention and attitudes towards COVID-19 vaccines in the UK

Attitudes to COVID-19 vaccination vary considerably within and between countries. Although the contribution of socio-demographic factors to these attitudes has been studied, the role of social media and how it interacts with news about vaccine development and efficacy is uncertain. We examined around 2 million tweets from 522,893 persons in the UK from November 2020 to January 2021 to evaluate links between Twitter content about vaccines and major scientific news announcements about vaccines. The proportion of tweets with negative vaccine content varied, with reductions of 20-24% on the same day as major news announcement. However, the proportion of negative tweets reverted back to an average of around 40% within a few days. Engagement rates were higher for negative tweets. Public health messaging could consider the dynamics of Twitter-related traffic and the potential contribution of more targeted social media campaigns to address vaccine hesitancy.

Psychological distance towards COVID-19: Geographical and hypothetical distance predict attitudes and mediate knowledge

While different antecedents have been examined to explain peoples’ reactions towards COVID-19, there is only scarce understanding about the role of the subjective closeness and distance to the pandemic. Within the current study, we applied the concept of psychological distance to understand the distance towards COVID-19 and investigated its (1) connection with preventive attitudes and proactive behaviors, (2) context-specific antecedents, and its (3) mediating effect of knowledge on attitudes. Using an online sample from a German quantitative cross-sectional study (N = 395, M = 32.2 years, SD = 13.9 years, 64.3% female) in July 2020, a time with a general low incidence of people infected with Sars-CoV2, we measured relevant socio-psychological constructs addressing COVID-19 and included further information from external sources. Based on a path model, we found geographical distance as a significant predictor of cognitive attitudes towards COVID-19. Furthermore, hypothetical distance (i.e., feeling to be likely affected by COVID-19) predicted not only participants’ affective, cognitive, and behavioral attitudes, but also the installation of a corona warning-app. While several variables affected the different dimensions of psychological distance, hypothetical and geographical distance mediated the effect of knowledge on attitudes. These results underline the role of geographical and hypothetical distance for health-related behaviors and education. For example, people will only comply with preventive measures if they feel geographically concerned by the disease, which is particularly challenging for fast-spreading global diseases such as COVID-19. Therefore, there is a need to clearly communicate the personal risks of diseases and address peoples’ hypothetical distance.

Analysis of lockdown perception in the United States during the COVID-19 pandemic

Containment measures have been applied throughout the world to halt the COVID-19 pandemic. In the United States, several forms of lockdown have been adopted in different parts of the country, leading to heterogeneous epidemiological, social, and economic effects. Here, we present a spatio-temporal analysis of a Twitter dataset comprising 1.3 million geo-localized Tweets about lockdown, from January to May 2020. Through sentiment analysis, we classified Tweets as expressing positive or negative emotions about lockdown, demonstrating a change in perception during the course of the pandemic modulated by socio-economic factors. A transfer entropy analysis of the time series of Tweets unveiled that the emotions in different parts of the country did not evolve independently. Rather, they were mediated by spatial interactions, which were also related to socio-ecomomic factors and, arguably, to political orientations. This study constitutes a first, necessary step toward isolating the mechanisms underlying the acceptance of public health interventions from highly resolved online datasets.

Characterizing COVID-19 Content Posted to TikTok: Public Sentiment and Response During the First Phase of the COVID-19 Pandemic

PURPOSE

The purpose of this study was to characterize COVID-19 content posted by users and disseminated via TikTok, a social media platform that has become known largely as an entertainment platform for viral video-sharing. We sought to capture how TikTok videos posted during the initial months of the COVID pandemic changed over time as cases accelerated.

METHODS

This study is an observational analysis of sequential TikTok videos with #coronavirus from January to March 2020. Videos were independently coded to assess content (e.g., health relatedness, humor, fear, empathy), misinformation, and public sentiment. To assess engagement, we also codified how often videos were shared relative to their content.

RESULTS

We coded 750 videos and approximately one in four videos tagged with #coronavirus featured health-related content such as featuring objects such as face masks, hand sanitizer, and other cleaning products. Most videos evoked "humor/parody," whereas 15% and 6% evoked "fear" and "empathy", respectively. TikTok videos posted in March 2020 had the largest number of shares and comments compared with January and February 2020. The proportion of shares and comments for "misleading and incorrect information" featured in videos was lower in March than in January and February 2020. There was no statistical difference between the share and comment counts of videos coded as "incorrect/incomplete" and "correct" over the entire time period.

CONCLUSIONS

Analyzing readily available social media platforms, such as TikTok provides real-time insights into public views, frequency and types of misinformation, and norms toward COVID-19. Analyzing TikTok videos has the potential to be used to inform public health messaging and public health mitigation strategies.

Public psychological distance and spatial distribution characteristics during the COVID-19 pandemic: a Chinese context

The COVID-19 pandemic is a public health emergency, which continues to have a significant impact on the functioning of society and the public’s daily life. From the perspective of psychological distance (PD), this study used descriptive, differential, and spatial autocorrelation analysis methods to explore the cognitive distance, emotional distance, expected distance and behavioral distance of the Chinese public in relation to the COVID-19 pandemic. An analysis of 4042 valid sample data found that: (1) The event emotional distance and subject emotional distance were both furthest from the event and subject psychological distance dimensions, and anger about the event was the strongest. (2) The government was the most appealing subject in the process of pandemic prevention and control, but at the same time, the public’s sense of closeness to the government was also lower than that of the other three subjects, e.g., medical institutions. (3) Different pandemic regions showed significant differences in PD. Mean scores of PD in each risk region were as follows: High-risk regions > medium-risk regions > low-risk regions. (4) From a global perspective, no spatial autocorrelation was found in PD. However, from a local perspective, high-value regions (provinces with distant PD) are mainly concentrated in the southern regions (Guizhou, Guangxi, Hainan, Jiangxi), and low-value regions (provinces with close PD) are mainly concentrated in North China (Shanxi, Hebei, Beijing). Combined with the relevant conclusions, this paper put forward policy recommendations.

Analysis and visualization of COVID-19 discourse on Twitter using data science: a case study of the USA, the UK and India

Purpose

This paper aims to understand, examine and interpret the main concerns and emotions of the people regarding COVID-19 pandemic in the UK, the USA and India using Data Science measures.

Design/methodology/approach

This study implements unsupervised and supervised machine learning methods, i.e. topic modeling and sentiment analysis on Twitter data for extracting the topics of discussion and calculating public sentiment.

Findings

Governments and policymakers remained the focus of public discussion on Twitter during the first three months of the pandemic. Overall, public sentiment toward the pandemic remained neutral except for the USA.

Originality/value

This paper proposes a Data Science-based approach to better understand the public topics of concern during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Determinants of Infodemics During Disease Outbreaks: A Systematic Review

Background: The widespread use of social media represents an unprecedented opportunity for health promotion. We have more information and evidence-based health related knowledge, for instance about healthy habits or possible risk behaviors. However, these tools also carry some disadvantages since they also open the door to new social and health risks, in particular during health emergencies. This systematic review aims to study the determinants of infodemics during disease outbreaks, drawing on both quantitative and qualitative methods. Methods: We searched research articles in PubMed, Scopus, Medline, Embase, CINAHL, Sociological abstracts, Cochrane Library, and Web of Science. Additional research works were included by searching bibliographies of electronically retrieved review articles. Results: Finally, 42 studies were included in the review. Five determinants of infodemics were identified: (1) information sources; (2) online communities' structure and consensus; (3) communication channels (i.e., mass media, social media, forums, and websites); (4) messages content (i.e., quality of information, sensationalism, etc.,); and (5) context (e.g., social consensus, health emergencies, public opinion, etc.). Studied selected in this systematic review identified different measures to combat misinformation during outbreaks. Conclusion: The clarity of the health promotion messages has been proven essential to prevent the spread of a particular disease and to avoid potential risks, but it is also fundamental to understand the network structure of social media platforms and the emergency context where misinformation might dynamically evolve. Therefore, in order to prevent future infodemics, special attention will need to be paid both to increase the visibility of evidence-based knowledge generated by health organizations and academia, and to detect the possible sources of mis/disinformation.

Under the Threat of an Epidemic: People with Higher Subjective Socioeconomic Status Show More Unethical Behaviors

This research focused on the psychological impact of an epidemic. We conducted a cross-sectional survey and two empirical experiments to examine how an epidemic would influence unethical behaviors and how the effect differs in people of different subjective socioeconomic statuses. These studies consistently demonstrated that subjective socioeconomic status moderates the relationship between an epidemic and unethical behaviors. Specifically, the perceived severity of an epidemic positively predicts the unethical behaviors of people with a high socioeconomic status, but it does not predict the unethical behaviors of people with a low socioeconomic status. These findings elucidate the effects of epidemics and bring theoretical and practical implications.

Emotional Attitudes of Chinese Citizens on Social Distancing During the COVID-19 Outbreak: Analysis of Social Media Data

Background

Wuhan, China, the epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic, imposed citywide lockdown measures on January 23, 2020. Neighboring cities in Hubei Province followed suit with the government enforcing social distancing measures to restrict the spread of the disease throughout the province. Few studies have examined the emotional attitudes of citizens as expressed on social media toward the imposed social distancing measures and the factors that affected their emotions.

Objective

The aim of this study was twofold. First, we aimed to detect the emotional attitudes of different groups of users on Sina Weibo toward the social distancing measures imposed by the People’s Government of Hubei Province. Second, the influencing factors of their emotions, as well as the impact of the imposed measures on users’ emotions, was studied.

Methods

Sina Weibo, one of China’s largest social media platforms, was chosen as the primary data source. The time span of selected data was from January 21, 2020, to March 24, 2020, while analysis was completed in late June 2020. Bi-directional long short-term memory (Bi-LSTM) was used to analyze users’ emotions, while logistic regression analysis was employed to explore the influence of explanatory variables on users’ emotions, such as age and spatial location. Further, the moderating effects of social distancing measures on the relationship between user characteristics and users’ emotions were assessed by observing the interaction effects between the measures and explanatory variables.

Results

Based on the 63,169 comments obtained, we identified six topics of discussion—(1) delaying the resumption of work and school, (2) travel restrictions, (3) traffic restrictions, (4) extending the Lunar New Year holiday, (5) closing public spaces, and (6) community containment. There was no multicollinearity in the data during statistical analysis; the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit was 0.24 (χ²₈=10.34, P>.24). The main emotions shown by citizens were negative, including anger and fear. Users located in Hubei Province showed the highest amount of negative emotions in Mainland China. There are statistically significant differences in the distribution of emotional polarity between social distancing measures (χ²₂₀=19,084.73, P<.001), as well as emotional polarity between genders (χ²₄=1784.59, P<.001) and emotional polarity between spatial locations (χ²₄=1659.67, P<.001). Compared with other types of social distancing measures, the measures of delaying the resumption of work and school or travel restrictions mainly had a positive moderating effect on public emotion, while traffic restrictions or community containment had a negative moderating effect on public emotion.

Conclusions

Findings provide a reference point for the adoption of epidemic prevention and control measures, and are considered helpful for government agencies to take timely actions to alleviate negative emotions during public health emergencies.

Attention dynamics on the Chinese social media Sina Weibo during the COVID-19 pandemic

Understanding attention dynamics on social media during pandemics could help governments minimize the effects. We focus on how COVID-19 has influenced the attention dynamics on the biggest Chinese microblogging website Sina Weibo during the first four months of the pandemic. We study the real-time Hot Search List (HSL), which provides the ranking of the most popular 50 hashtags based on the amount of Sina Weibo searches. We show how the specific events, measures and developments during the epidemic affected the emergence of different kinds of hashtags and the ranking on the HSL. A significant increase of COVID-19 related hashtags started to occur on HSL around January 20, 2020, when the transmission of the disease between humans was announced. Then very rapidly a situation was reached where COVID-related hashtags occupied 30-70% of the HSL, however, with changing content. We give an analysis of how the hashtag topics changed during the investigated time span and conclude that there are three periods separated by February 12 and March 12. In period 1, we see strong topical correlations and clustering of hashtags; in period 2, the correlations are weakened, without clustering pattern; in period 3, we see a potential of clustering while not as strong as in period 1. We further explore the dynamics of HSL by measuring the ranking dynamics and the lifetimes of hashtags on the list. This way we can obtain information about the decay of attention, which is important for decisions about the temporal placement of governmental measures to achieve permanent awareness. Furthermore, our observations indicate abnormally higher rank diversity in the top 15 ranks on HSL due to the COVID-19 related hashtags, revealing the possibility of algorithmic intervention from the platform provider.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1140/epjds/s13688-021-00263-0.

A socio-technological model of search information divide in US cities

Purpose

The purpose of the current study is to theorize and apply a socio-technological model – the powerful influence of social determinants in conditioning the effects of information attention on social outcomes. Fundamentally, this study is motivated by the idea that the social determinants of information flow can be used as a predictive tool to inform public socio-policy decisions.

Design/methodology/approach

This study draws upon digital disparity literature and uses publicly available Google search queries in exploring online information attention and its relationships to the HIV/AIDS diffusion in US cities. This study’s secondary data collected from extant sources is used to draw attention to a holistic urban ecology under which online search attention represents the variation of information access at the aggregate level.

Findings

The main finding shows that online information attention, as indicated by search trend, is far from being a simple predictor, but operates in complex interactions with existing social environments. A bivariate correlation between AIDS information search and AIDS diffusion rate was found to be significant. However, predictive multivariate models displayed robust effects of social contextual variables, such as income level and racial composition of cities, in moderating the effect of online search information flow.

Practical implications

The importance of these insights is discussed for reducing socio-health disparities at the macro-social level, and policymakers and health administrators are recommended to incubate supportive online infrastructure as an effective preventive measure at the time of a crisis.

Originality/value

The unique contribution of this study is the premise that looks at the aggregate-ecological contour of cities within which the potential benefits of information occur, instead of examining the isolated function of mediated information per se. In this vein, online information search, in lieu of the exposure to mass media message that is often measured via self-reported items, is a particularly unique and fruitful area of future inquiry that this study promotes.

COVID-19 predictability in the United States using Google Trends time series

During the unprecedented situation that all countries around the globe are facing due to the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, which has also had severe socioeconomic consequences, it is imperative to explore novel approaches to monitoring and forecasting regional outbreaks as they happen or even before they do so. To that end, in this paper, the role of Google query data in the predictability of COVID-19 in the United States at both national and state level is presented. As a preliminary investigation, Pearson and Kendall rank correlations are examined to explore the relationship between Google Trends data and COVID-19 data on cases and deaths. Next, a COVID-19 predictability analysis is performed, with the employed model being a quantile regression that is bias corrected via bootstrap simulation, i.e., a robust regression analysis that is the appropriate statistical approach to taking against the presence of outliers in the sample while also mitigating small sample estimation bias. The results indicate that there are statistically significant correlations between Google Trends and COVID-19 data, while the estimated models exhibit strong COVID-19 predictability. In line with previous work that has suggested that online real-time data are valuable in the monitoring and forecasting of epidemics and outbreaks, it is evident that such infodemiology approaches can assist public health policy makers in addressing the most crucial issues: flattening the curve, allocating health resources, and increasing the effectiveness and preparedness of their respective health care systems.

COVID-19 predictability in the United States using Google Trends time series

During the unprecedented situation that all countries around the globe are facing due to the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, which has also had severe socioeconomic consequences, it is imperative to explore novel approaches to monitoring and forecasting regional outbreaks as they happen or even before they do so. To that end, in this paper, the role of Google query data in the predictability of COVID-19 in the United States at both national and state level is presented. As a preliminary investigation, Pearson and Kendall rank correlations are examined to explore the relationship between Google Trends data and COVID-19 data on cases and deaths. Next, a COVID-19 predictability analysis is performed, with the employed model being a quantile regression that is bias corrected via bootstrap simulation, i.e., a robust regression analysis that is the appropriate statistical approach to taking against the presence of outliers in the sample while also mitigating small sample estimation bias. The results indicate that there are statistically significant correlations between Google Trends and COVID-19 data, while the estimated models exhibit strong COVID-19 predictability. In line with previous work that has suggested that online real-time data are valuable in the monitoring and forecasting of epidemics and outbreaks, it is evident that such infodemiology approaches can assist public health policy makers in addressing the most crucial issues: flattening the curve, allocating health resources, and increasing the effectiveness and preparedness of their respective health care systems.

Exploring How Media Influence Preventive Behavior and Excessive Preventive Intention during the COVID-19 Pandemic in China

In the context of global fighting against the unexpected COVID-19 pandemic, how to promote the public implementation of preventive behavior is the top priority of pandemic prevention and control. This study aimed at probing how the media would affect the public’s preventive behavior and excessive preventive intention accordingly. Data were collected from 653 respondents in the Chinese mainland through online questionnaires and further analyzed by using partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM). Taking risk perception, negative emotions, and subjective norms as mediators, this study explored the impact of mass media exposure and social networking services involvement on preventive behavior and excessive preventive intention. Based on differences in the severity of the pandemic, the samples were divided into the Wuhan group and other regions group for multi-group comparison. The results showed that mass media exposure had a significant positive impact on subjective norms; moreover, mass media exposure could significantly enhance preventive behavior through subjective norms, and social networking services involvement had a significant positive impact on negative emotions; meanwhile, social networking services involvement promoted excessive preventive intention through negative emotions.

Topics, Trends, and Sentiments of Tweets About the COVID-19 Pandemic: Temporal Infoveillance Study

Background

With restrictions on movement and stay-at-home orders in place due to the COVID-19 pandemic, social media platforms such as Twitter have become an outlet for users to express their concerns, opinions, and feelings about the pandemic. Individuals, health agencies, and governments are using Twitter to communicate about COVID-19.

Objective

The aims of this study were to examine key themes and topics of English-language COVID-19–related tweets posted by individuals and to explore the trends and variations in how the COVID-19–related tweets, key topics, and associated sentiments changed over a period of time from before to after the disease was declared a pandemic.

Methods

Building on the emergent stream of studies examining COVID-19–related tweets in English, we performed a temporal assessment covering the time period from January 1 to May 9, 2020, and examined variations in tweet topics and sentiment scores to uncover key trends. Combining data from two publicly available COVID-19 tweet data sets with those obtained in our own search, we compiled a data set of 13.9 million English-language COVID-19–related tweets posted by individuals. We use guided latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA) to infer themes and topics underlying the tweets, and we used VADER (Valence Aware Dictionary and sEntiment Reasoner) sentiment analysis to compute sentiment scores and examine weekly trends for 17 weeks.

Results

Topic modeling yielded 26 topics, which were grouped into 10 broader themes underlying the COVID-19–related tweets. Of the 13,937,906 examined tweets, 2,858,316 (20.51%) were about the impact of COVID-19 on the economy and markets, followed by spread and growth in cases (2,154,065, 15.45%), treatment and recovery (1,831,339, 13.14%), impact on the health care sector (1,588,499, 11.40%), and governments response (1,559,591, 11.19%). Average compound sentiment scores were found to be negative throughout the examined time period for the topics of spread and growth of cases, symptoms, racism, source of the outbreak, and political impact of COVID-19. In contrast, we saw a reversal of sentiments from negative to positive for prevention, impact on the economy and markets, government response, impact on the health care industry, and treatment and recovery.

Conclusions

Identification of dominant themes, topics, sentiments, and changing trends in tweets about the COVID-19 pandemic can help governments, health care agencies, and policy makers frame appropriate responses to prevent and control the spread of the pandemic.

Association of Search Query Interest in Gastrointestinal Symptoms With COVID-19 Diagnosis in the United States: Infodemiology Study

BACKGROUND

Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is a novel viral illness that has rapidly spread worldwide. While the disease primarily presents as a respiratory illness, gastrointestinal symptoms such as diarrhea have been reported in up to one-third of confirmed cases, and patients may have mild symptoms that do not prompt them to seek medical attention. Internet-based infodemiology offers an approach to studying symptoms at a population level, even in individuals who do not seek medical care.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to determine if a correlation exists between internet searches for gastrointestinal symptoms and the confirmed case count of COVID-19 in the United States.

METHODS

The search terms chosen for analysis in this study included common gastrointestinal symptoms such as diarrhea, nausea, vomiting, and abdominal pain. Furthermore, the search terms fever and cough were used as positive controls, and constipation was used as a negative control. Daily query shares for the selected symptoms were obtained from Google Trends between October 1, 2019 and June 15, 2020 for all US states. These shares were divided into two time periods: pre-COVID-19 (prior to March 1) and post-COVID-19 (March 1-June 15). Confirmed COVID-19 case numbers were obtained from the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering data repository. Moving averages of the daily query shares (normalized to baseline pre-COVID-19) were then analyzed against the confirmed disease case count and daily new cases to establish a temporal relationship.

RESULTS

The relative search query shares of many symptoms, including nausea, vomiting, abdominal pain, and constipation, remained near or below baseline throughout the time period studied; however, there were notable increases in searches for the positive control symptoms of fever and cough as well as for diarrhea. These increases in daily search queries for fever, cough, and diarrhea preceded the rapid rise in number of cases by approximately 10 to 14 days. The search volumes for these terms began declining after mid-March despite the continued rises in cumulative cases and daily new case counts.

CONCLUSIONS

Google searches for symptoms may precede the actual rises in cases and hospitalizations during pandemics. During the current COVID-19 pandemic, this study demonstrates that internet search queries for fever, cough, and diarrhea increased prior to the increased confirmed case count by available testing during the early weeks of the pandemic in the United States. While the search volumes eventually decreased significantly as the number of cases continued to rise, internet query search data may still be a useful tool at a population level to identify areas of active disease transmission at the cusp of new outbreaks.

Spatio-temporal distribution of negative emotions on Twitter during floods in Chennai, India, in 2015: a post hoc analysis

Background

Natural disasters are known to take their psychological toll immediately, and over the long term, on those living through them. Messages posted on Twitter provide an insight into the state of mind of citizens affected by such disasters and provide useful data on the emotional impact on groups of people. In 2015, Chennai, the capital city of Tamil Nadu state in southern India, experienced unprecedented flooding, which subsequently triggered economic losses and had considerable psychological impact on citizens. The objectives of this study are to (i) mine posts to Twitter to extract negative emotions of those posting tweets before, during and after the floods; (ii) examine the spatial and temporal variations of negative emotions across Chennai city via tweets; and (iii) analyse associations in the posts between the emotions observed before, during and after the disaster.

Methods

Using Twitter’s application programming interface, tweets posted at the time of floods were aggregated for detailed categorisation and analysis. The different emotions were extracted and classified by using the National Research Council emotion lexicon. Both an analysis of variance (ANOVA) and mixed-effect analysis were performed to assess the temporal variations in negative emotion rates. Global and local Moran’s I statistic were used to understand the spatial distribution and clusters of negative emotions across the Chennai region. Spatial regression was used to analyse over time the association in negative emotion rates from the tweets.

Results

In the 5696 tweets analysed around the time of the floods, negative emotions were in evidence 17.02% before, 29.45% during and 11.39% after the floods. The rates of negative emotions showed significant variation between tweets sent before, during and after the disaster. Negative emotions were highest at the time of disaster’s peak and reduced considerably post disaster in all wards of Chennai. Spatial clusters of wards with high negative emotion rates were identified.

Conclusions

Spatial analysis of emotions expressed on Twitter during disasters helps to identify geographic areas with high negative emotions and areas needing immediate emotional support. Analysing emotions temporally provides insight into early identification of mental health issues, and their consequences, for those affected by disasters.

Misinformation and the US Ebola communication crisis: analyzing the veracity and content of social media messages related to a fear-inducing infectious disease outbreak

Background

The Ebola communication crisis of 2014 generated widespread fear and attention among Western news media, social media users, and members of the United States (US) public. Health communicators need more information on misinformation and the social media environment during a fear-inducing disease outbreak to improve communication practices. The purpose of this study was to describe the content of Ebola-related tweets with a specific focus on misinformation, political content, health related content, risk framing, and rumors.

Methods

We examined tweets from a random 1% sample of all tweets published September 30th - October 30th, 2014, filtered for English-language tweets mentioning “Ebola” in the content or hashtag, that had at least 1 retweet (N = 72,775 tweets). A randomly selected subset of 3639 (5%) tweets were evaluated for inclusion. We analyzed the 3113 tweets that meet inclusion criteria using public health trained human coders to assess tweet characteristics (joke, opinion, discord), veracity (true, false, partially false), political context, risk frame, health context, Ebola specific messages, and rumors. We assessed the proportion of tweets with specific content using descriptive statistics and chi-squared tests.

Results

Of non-joke tweets, 10% of Ebola-related tweets contained false or partially false information. Twenty-five percent were related to politics, 28% contained content that provoked reader response or promoted discord, 42% contained risk elevating messages and 72% were related to health. The most frequent rumor mentioned focused on government conspiracy. When comparing tweets with true information to tweets with misinformation, a greater percentage of tweets with misinformation were political in nature (36% vs 15%) and contained discord-inducing statements (45% vs 10%). Discord-inducing statements and political messages were both significantly more common in tweets containing misinformation compared with those without(p < 0.001).

Conclusions

Results highlight the importance of anticipating politicization of disease outbreaks, and the need for policy makers and social media companies to build partnerships and develop response frameworks in advance of an event. While each public health event is different, our findings provide insight into the possible social media environment during a future epidemic and could help optimize potential public health communication strategies.

Tracking COVID-19 in Europe: Infodemiology Approach

BACKGROUND

Infodemiology (ie, information epidemiology) uses web-based data to inform public health and policy. Infodemiology metrics have been widely and successfully used to assess and forecast epidemics and outbreaks.

OBJECTIVE

In light of the recent coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic that started in Wuhan, China in 2019, online search traffic data from Google are used to track the spread of the new coronavirus disease in Europe.

METHODS

Time series from Google Trends from January to March 2020 on the Topic (Virus) of "Coronavirus" were retrieved and correlated with official data on COVID-19 cases and deaths worldwide and in the European countries that have been affected the most: Italy (at national and regional level), Spain, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom.

RESULTS

Statistically significant correlations are observed between online interest and COVID-19 cases and deaths. Furthermore, a critical point, after which the Pearson correlation coefficient starts declining (even if it is still statistically significant) was identified, indicating that this method is most efficient in regions or countries that have not yet peaked in COVID-19 cases.

CONCLUSIONS

In the past, infodemiology metrics in general and data from Google Trends in particular have been shown to be useful in tracking and forecasting outbreaks, epidemics, and pandemics as, for example, in the cases of the Middle East respiratory syndrome, Ebola, measles, and Zika. With the COVID-19 pandemic still in the beginning stages, it is essential to explore and combine new methods of disease surveillance to assist with the preparedness of health care systems at the regional level.

Psychological Impact of the COVID-19 Outbreak on Nurses in China: A Nationwide Survey During the Outbreak

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic is a major public health issue and challenge to health professionals. In similar epidemics, nurses experienced more distress than other providers. Methods: We surveyed both on-duty nurses caring for infected patients and second-line nurses caring for uninfected patients from Hubei and other provinces throughout China. Results: We received completed surveys from 1,364 nurses from 22 provinces: 658 front-line and 706 second-line nurses. The median (IQR) GHQ-28 score of all nurses was 17 (IQR 11-24). The overall incidence of mild-to-moderate distress (GHQ score > 5) was 28%; that for severe distress (GHQ score > 11) was 6%. The incidence of mild-to-moderate distress in the second-line nurses was higher than that in the front-line nurses (31 vs. 25%; OR, 0.74; 95 CI, 0.58-0.94). Living alone (OR, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.44-0.86) and feeling supported (OR, 0.82, 95% CI, 0.74-0.90) independently predicted lower anxiety. Conclusions: During the COVID-19 pandemic, the psychological problems of all nurses were generally serious. The interviewed second-line nurses face more serious issues than the front-line nurses.

Social Media Usage During Disasters: Exploring the Impact of Location and Distance on Online Engagement

Social media play an important role in emergency management. The location of citizens and distance from a disaster influence the social media usage patterns. Using the Tianjin Port Explosion, we apply the correlation analysis and regression analysis to explore the relationship between online engagement and location. Citizens' online engagement is estimated by social media. Three dimensions of the psychological distance - spatial, temporal, and social distances - are applied to measure the effects of location and distance. Online engagement is negatively correlated to such 3 kinds of the distance, which indicates that citizens may pay less attention to a disaster that happens at a far away location and at an area of less interaction or at a relatively long period of time. Furthermore, a linear model is proposed to measure the psychological distance. The quantification relationship between online engagement and psychological distance is discussed. The result enhances our understanding of social media usage patterns related to location and distance. The study gives a new insight on situation awareness, decision-making during disasters.

A Systematic Review of Techniques Employed for Determining Mental Health Using Social Media in Psychological Surveillance During Disasters

During disasters, people share their thoughts and emotions on social media and also provide information about the event. Mining the social media messages and updates can be helpful in understanding the emotional state of people during such unforeseen events as they are real-time data. The objective of this review is to explore the feasibility of using social media data for mental health surveillance as well as the techniques used for determining mental health using social media data during disasters. PubMed, PsycINFO, and PsycARTICLES databases were searched from 2009 to November 2018 for primary research studies. After screening and analyzing the records, 18 studies were included in this review. Twitter was the widely researched social media platform for understanding the mental health of people during a disaster. Psychological surveillance was done by identifying the sentiments expressed by people or the emotions they displayed in their social media posts. Classification of sentiments and emotions were done using lexicon-based or machine learning methods. It is not possible to conclude that a particular technique is the best performing one, because the performance of any method depends upon factors such as the disaster size, the volume of data, disaster setting, and the disaster web environment.

Precision Global Health - The case of Ebola: a scoping review

BACKGROUND

The 2014-2016 Ebola outbreak across West Africa was devastating, acting not only as a wake-up call for the global health community, but also as a catalyst for innovative change and global action. Improved infectious disease monitoring is the stepping-stone toward better disease prevention and control efforts, and recent research has revealed the potential of digital technologies to transform the field of global health. This scoping review aimed to identify which digital technologies may improve disease prevention and control, with regard to the 2014-2016 Ebola outbreak in West Africa.

METHODS

A search was conducted on PubMed, EBSCOhost and Web of Science, with search dates ranging from 2013 (01/01/2013) - 2017 (13/06/2017). Data was extracted into a summative table and data synthesized through grouping digital technology domains, using narrative and graphical methods.

FINDINGS

The scoping review identified 82 full-text articles, and revealed big data (48%, n = 39) and modeling (26%, n = 21) technologies to be the most utilized within the Ebola outbreak. Digital technologies were mainly used for surveillance purposes (90%, n = 74), and key challenges were related to scalability and misinformation from social media platforms.

INTERPRETATION

Digital technologies demonstrated their potential during the Ebola outbreak through: more rapid diagnostics, more precise predictions and estimations, increased knowledge transfer, and raising situational awareness through mHealth and social media platforms such as Twitter and Weibo. However, better integration into both citizen and health professionals' communities is necessary to maximise the potential of digital technologies.

Google Trends in Infodemiology and Infoveillance: Methodology Framework

Internet data are being increasingly integrated into health informatics research and are becoming a useful tool for exploring human behavior. The most popular tool for examining online behavior is Google Trends, an open tool that provides information on trends and the variations of online interest in selected keywords and topics over time. Online search traffic data from Google have been shown to be useful in analyzing human behavior toward health topics and in predicting disease occurrence and outbreaks. Despite the large number of Google Trends studies during the last decade, the literature on the subject lacks a specific methodology framework. This article aims at providing an overview of the tool and data and at presenting the first methodology framework in using Google Trends in infodemiology and infoveillance, including the main factors that need to be taken into account for a strong methodology base. We provide a step-by-step guide for the methodology that needs to be followed when using Google Trends and the essential aspects required for valid results in this line of research. At first, an overview of the tool and the data are presented, followed by an analysis of the key methodological points for ensuring the validity of the results, which include selecting the appropriate keyword(s), region(s), period, and category. Overall, this article presents and analyzes the key points that need to be considered to achieve a strong methodological basis for using Google Trends data, which is crucial for ensuring the value and validity of the results, as the analysis of online queries is extensively integrated in health research in the big data era.

Can Google Trends data improve forecasting of Lyme disease incidence?

BACKGROUND

Online activity-based epidemiological surveillance and forecasting is getting more and more attention. To date, Google search volumes have not been assessed for forecasting of tick-borne diseases. Thus, we performed an analysis of forecasting of the Lyme disease incidence based on the traditional data extended with Google Trends.

METHODS

Data on the weekly incidence of Lyme disease in Germany from 16 June 2013 to 27 May 2018 were obtained from the database of the Robert Koch Institute. Data of Internet searches were obtained from Google Trends searching "Borreliose" in Germany for the "last 5 years" as a timespan category. Data were split into the training (from 16 June 2013 to 11 June 2017) and validation (from 12 June 2017, to 27 May 2018) data sets. A seasonal autoregressive moving average model, SARIMA (0,1,1) (0,1,1) [52] model was selected to describe the time series of the weekly Lyme incidence. After this, we added the Google Trends data as an external regressor and identified the SARIMA (0,1,1) (0,1,1) [52] model as optimal. We made predictions for the validation interval using these two models and compared predictions with the values of the validation data set.

RESULTS

Forecasting for the validation timespan resulted in similar values for the models. Comparing the forecasted values with the reported ones resulted in an residual mean squared error (RMSE) of 0.3763; the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was 8.233 for the model without Google searches with an RMSE of 0.3732; and the MAPE was 8.17495 for the Google Trends values-expanded model. The difference between the predictive performances was insignificant (Diebold-Mariano Test, p-value = 0.4152).

CONCLUSION

Google Trends data are a good correlate of the reported incidence of Lyme disease in Germany, but it failed to significantly improve the forecasting accuracy in models based on traditional data.

Assessing the Methods, Tools, and Statistical Approaches in Google Trends Research: Systematic Review

Background

In the era of information overload, are big data analytics the answer to access and better manage available knowledge? Over the last decade, the use of Web-based data in public health issues, that is, infodemiology, has been proven useful in assessing various aspects of human behavior. Google Trends is the most popular tool to gather such information, and it has been used in several topics up to this point, with health and medicine being the most focused subject. Web-based behavior is monitored and analyzed in order to examine actual human behavior so as to predict, better assess, and even prevent health-related issues that constantly arise in everyday life.

Objective

This systematic review aimed at reporting and further presenting and analyzing the methods, tools, and statistical approaches for Google Trends (infodemiology) studies in health-related topics from 2006 to 2016 to provide an overview of the usefulness of said tool and be a point of reference for future research on the subject.

Methods

Following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines for selecting studies, we searched for the term “Google Trends” in the Scopus and PubMed databases from 2006 to 2016, applying specific criteria for types of publications and topics. A total of 109 published papers were extracted, excluding duplicates and those that did not fall inside the topics of health and medicine or the selected article types. We then further categorized the published papers according to their methodological approach, namely, visualization, seasonality, correlations, forecasting, and modeling.

Results

All the examined papers comprised, by definition, time series analysis, and all but two included data visualization. A total of 23.1% (24/104) studies used Google Trends data for examining seasonality, while 39.4% (41/104) and 32.7% (34/104) of the studies used correlations and modeling, respectively. Only 8.7% (9/104) of the studies used Google Trends data for predictions and forecasting in health-related topics; therefore, it is evident that a gap exists in forecasting using Google Trends data.

Conclusions

The monitoring of online queries can provide insight into human behavior, as this field is significantly and continuously growing and will be proven more than valuable in the future for assessing behavioral changes and providing ground for research using data that could not have been accessed otherwise.

Virtual Zika transmission after the first U.S. case: who said what and how it spread on Twitter

BACKGROUND

This paper goes beyond detecting specific themes within Zika-related chatter on Twitter, to identify the key actors who influence the diffusive process through which some themes become more amplified than others.

METHODS

We collected all Zika-related tweets during the 3 months immediately after the first U.S. case of Zika. After the tweets were categorized into 12 themes, a cross-section were grouped into weekly datasets, to capture 12 amplifier/user groups, and analyzed by 4 amplification modes: mentions, retweets, talkers, and Twitter-wide amplifiers.

RESULTS

We analyzed 3,057,130 tweets in the United States and categorized 4997 users. The most talked about theme was Zika transmission (~58%). News media, public health institutions, and grassroots users were the most visible and frequent sources and disseminators of Zika-related Twitter content. Grassroots users were the primary sources and disseminators of conspiracy theories.

CONCLUSIONS

Social media analytics enable public health institutions to quickly learn what information is being disseminated, and by whom, regarding infectious diseases. Such information can help public health institutions identify and engage with news media and other active information providers. It also provides insights into media and public concerns, accuracy of information on Twitter, and information gaps. The study identifies implications for pandemic preparedness and response in the digital era and presents the agenda for future research and practice.

Harnessing Big Data for Communicable Tropical and Sub-Tropical Disorders: Implications From a Systematic Review of the Literature

Aim

According to the World Health Organization (WHO), communicable tropical and sub-tropical diseases occur solely, or mainly in the tropics, thriving in hot, and humid conditions. Some of these disorders termed as neglected tropical diseases are particularly overlooked. Communicable tropical/sub-tropical diseases represent a diverse group of communicable disorders occurring in 149 countries, favored by tropical and sub-tropical conditions, affecting more than one billion people and imposing a dramatic societal and economic burden.

Methods

A systematic review of the extant scholarly literature was carried out, searching in PubMed/MEDLINE and Scopus. The search string used included proper keywords, like big data, nontraditional data sources, social media, social networks, infodemiology, infoveillance, novel data streams (NDS), digital epidemiology, digital behavior, Google Trends, Twitter, Facebook, YouTube, Instagram, Pinterest, Ebola, Zika, dengue, Chikungunya, Chagas, and the other neglected tropical diseases.

Results

47 original, observational studies were included in the current systematic review: 1 focused on Chikungunya, 6 on dengue, 19 on Ebola, 2 on Malaria, 1 on Mayaro virus, 2 on West Nile virus, and 16 on Zika. Fifteen were dedicated on developing and validating forecasting techniques for real-time monitoring of neglected tropical diseases, while the remaining studies investigated public reaction to infectious outbreaks. Most studies explored a single nontraditional data source, with Twitter being the most exploited tool (25 studies).

Conclusion

Even though some studies have shown the feasibility of utilizing NDS as an effective tool for predicting epidemic outbreaks and disseminating accurate, high-quality information concerning neglected tropical diseases, some gaps should be properly underlined. Out of the 47 articles included, only 7 were focusing on neglected tropical diseases, while all the other covered communicable tropical/sub-tropical diseases, and the main determinant of this unbalanced coverage seems to be the media impact and resonance. Furthermore, efforts in integrating diverse NDS should be made. As such, taking into account these limitations, further research in the field is needed.

Facebook and Twitter vaccine sentiment in response to measles outbreaks

Social media posts regarding measles vaccination were classified as pro-vaccination, expressing vaccine hesitancy, uncertain, or irrelevant. Spearman correlations with Centers for Disease Control and Prevention-reported measles cases and differenced smoothed cumulative case counts over this period were reported (using time series bootstrap confidence intervals). A total of 58,078 Facebook posts and 82,993 tweets were identified from 4 January 2009 to 27 August 2016. Pro-vaccination posts were correlated with the US weekly reported cases (Facebook: Spearman correlation 0.22 (95% confidence interval: 0.09 to 0.34), Twitter: 0.21 (95% confidence interval: 0.06 to 0.34)). Vaccine-hesitant posts, however, were uncorrelated with measles cases in the United States (Facebook: 0.01 (95% confidence interval: -0.13 to 0.14), Twitter: 0.0011 (95% confidence interval: -0.12 to 0.12)). These findings may result from more consistent social media engagement by individuals expressing vaccine hesitancy, contrasted with media- or event-driven episodic interest on the part of individuals favoring current policy.