Patterns of Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate Decline Leading to End-Stage Renal Disease in Type 1 Diabetes

Effect of proteinuria on the rapid kidney function decline in chronic kidney disease depends on the underlying disease: A post hoc analysis of the BRIGHTEN study

AIMS

It is unclear whether the effect of proteinuria on rapid kidney function decline is equivalent among diabetic kidney disease (DKD), non-DKD with diabetes (NDKD+DM), and nephrosclerosis without diabetes (NS-DM), particularly in advanced chronic kidney disease patients.

METHODS

In total, 1038 chronic kidney disease patients who participated in the BRIGHTEN study were included in the present study. A linear mixed effect model was applied to estimate the annual estimated glomerular filtration rate decline in each disease group.

RESULTS

The prevalence of rapid decliners (rapid kidney function decline, defined as an eGFR loss of > 5 mL/min/1.73 m2/year) in the DKD group (44.6 %) was significantly higher compared with the NDKD+DM (27.9 %) and NS-DM (27.0 %) groups. By contrast, the prevalence of rapid decliners in different urine total protein to creatinine ratio (UPCR) categories (<0.5, 0.5 to < 1.0, 1.0 to < 3.5, and ≥ 3.5 g/g) were equivalent between the DKD and NS-DM groups. Moreover, the prevalence of a UPCR < 1.0 g/g in rapid decliners of the NS-DM group was more than double than in those of the DKD and NDKD+DM groups.

CONCLUSIONS

The risk of rapid kidney function decline in NS-DM patients with low levels of proteinuria may be greater than initially predicted.

Development and validation of a machine learning model to predict time to renal replacement therapy in patients with chronic kidney disease

BACKGROUND

Predicting time to renal replacement therapy (RRT) is important in patients at high risk for end-stage kidney disease. We developed and validated machine learning models for predicting the time to RRT and compared its accuracy with conventional prediction methods that uses the rate of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) decline.

METHODS

Data of adult chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients who underwent hemodialysis at Oita University Hospital from April 2016 to March 2021 were extracted from electronic medical records (N = 135). A new machine learning predictor was compared with the established prediction method that uses the eGFR decline rate and the accuracy of the prediction models was determined using the coefficient of determination (R2). The data were preprocessed and split into training and validation datasets. We created multiple machine learning models using the training data and evaluated their accuracy using validation data. Furthermore, we predicted the time to RRT using a conventional prediction method that uses the eGFR decline rate for patients who had measured eGFR three or more times in two years and evaluated its accuracy.

RESULTS

The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression model exhibited moderate accuracy with an R2 of 0.60. By contrast, the conventional prediction method was found to be extremely low with an R2 of -17.1.

CONCLUSIONS

The significance of this study is that it shows that machine learning can predict time to RRT moderately well with continuous values from data at a single time point. This approach outperforms the conventional prediction method that uses eGFR time series data and presents new avenues for CKD treatment.

Kidney function trajectories, associated factors, and outcomes in multiethnic Asian patients with type 2 diabetes

BACKGROUND

We examined the trajectory of estimated glomerular filtrate rate (eGFR), associated risk factors, and its relationship with end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) among a multiethnic patient population with type 2 diabetes in Singapore.

METHODS

A follow-up study included 62 080 individuals with type 2 diabetes aged ≥18 years in a multi-institutional SingHealth Diabetes Registry between 2013 and 2019. eGFR trajectories were analyzed using latent class linear mixed models. Factors associated with eGFR trajectories were evaluated using multinomial logistic regression. The association of eGFR trajectories with ESKD was assessed via competing risk models.

RESULTS

Trajectory of kidney function, determined by eGFR, was nonlinear. The trajectory pattern was classified as stable initially then gradual decline (75%), progressive decline (21.9%), and rapid decline (3.1%). Younger age, female sex, Malay ethnicity, lower-income housing type, current smoking, higher glycated hemoglobin, lower low-density lipoprotein, higher triglyceride, uncontrolled blood pressure, albuminuria, cardiovascular disease, hypertension, and higher eGFR levels each were associated with progressive or rapid decline. Compared with the trajectory of stable initially then gradual eGFR decline, progressive decline increased the hazard of ESKD by 6.14-fold (95% confidence interval [CI]: 4.96-7.61)) and rapid decline by 82.55 folds (95% CI: 55.90-121.89).

CONCLUSIONS

Three nonlinear trajectory classes of kidney function were identified among multiethnic individuals with type 2 diabetes in Singapore. About one in four individuals had a progressive or rapid decline in eGFR. Our results suggest that eGFR trajectories are correlated with multiple social and modifiable risk factors and inform the risk of ESKD.

Comprehensive Factors for Predicting the Complications of DiabetesMellitus: A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND

This article focuses on extracting a standard feature set for predicting the complications of diabetes mellitus by systematically reviewing the literature. It is conducted and reported by following the guidelines of PRISMA, a well-known systematic review and meta-analysis method. The research articles included in this study are extracted using the search engine "Web of Science" over eight years. The most common complications of diabetes, diabetic neuropathy, retinopathy, nephropathy, and cardiovascular diseases are considered in the study.

METHOD

The features used to predict the complications are identified and categorised by scrutinising the standards of electronic health records.

RESULT

Overall, 102 research articles have been reviewed, resulting in 59 frequent features being identified. Nineteen attributes are recognised as a standard in all four considered complications, which are age, gender, ethnicity, weight, height, BMI, smoking history, HbA1c, SBP, eGFR, DBP, HDL, LDL, total cholesterol, triglyceride, use of insulin, duration of diabetes, family history of CVD, and diabetes. The existence of a well-accepted and updated feature set for health analytics models to predict the complications of diabetes mellitus is a vital and contemporary requirement. A widely accepted feature set is beneficial for benchmarking the risk factors of complications of diabetes.

CONCLUSION

This study is a thorough literature review to provide a clear state of the art for academicians, clinicians, and other stakeholders regarding the risk factors and their importance.

Variants within the LPL gene confer susceptility to diabetic kidney disease and rapid decline in kidney function in Chinese patients with type 2 diabetes

AIM

To examine the association between lipoprotein lipase (LPL) polymorphisms and susceptibility to diabetic kidney disease (DKD) and early renal function decline in Chinese patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D).

METHODS

The association of eight LPL single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) with DKD was analysed in 2793 patients with T2D from the third China National Stroke Registry. DKD was defined as either an urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR) of 30 mg/g or higher at baseline and 3 months, or an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of less than 60 mL/min/1.73 m2 at baseline and 3 months. Rapid decline in kidney function (RDKF) was defined as a reduction in the eGFR of 3 mL/min/1.73 m2 or greater per year. Logistic regression models were used to evaluate the association of LPL SNP and DKD with an additive model.

RESULTS

The SNPs rs285 C>T (OR = 1.40, P = .0154), rs328 C>G (OR = 2.24, P = .0104) and rs3208305 A>T (OR = 1.85, P = .0015) were identified to be significantly associated with DKD defined by eGFR. Among 1241 participants with follow-up data, 441 (35.5%) showed RDKF over a mean follow-up period of 1 year, and the rs285 C allele was associated with higher odds of RDKF (OR = 1.31, 95% CI 1.04-1.66; P = .025) after adjustment for multiple variables.

CONCLUSIONS

These results suggest that LPL-related SNPs are new candidate factors for conferring susceptibility to DKD and may promote rapid loss of renal function in Chinese patients with T2D.

Rate of Kidney Function Decline is Associated With Kidney and Heart Failure in Individuals With Type 1 Diabetes

Introduction

Diabetes is the most common cause of chronic kidney disease (CKD). Urinary albumin excretion rate (AER) and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) are commonly used to monitor the onset and progression of diabetic kidney disease (DKD). We studied if the preceding rate of kidney function decline, that is, the eGFR slope, is independently associated with incident clinical cardiorenal events.

Methods

This study included longitudinal data for 2498 Finnish individuals with type 1 diabetes (T1D). The eGFR slope was calculated from 5 years preceding the study visit. Data on kidney failure, coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, 3-point major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), heart failure, and death were obtained from national registries. The associations between the eGFR slope and incident events were assessed with multivariable competing risk models during the average follow-up of 9.2 years.

Results

The eGFR slopes were associated (P ≤ 0.001) with all outcomes when adjusted for age, sex, and HbA1c. However, eGFR slope remained associated only with the composite outcome of kidney failure or death when the albuminuria group and eGFR at the study visit were included in the model (P = 0.041). In addition, eGFR slope was independently associated with kidney failure in individuals without CKD (eGFR > 60 ml/min per 1.73 m2; P = 0.044), and with heart failure in those with CKD (P = 0.033). However, eGFR slope did not markedly improve the model C-index.

Conclusion

The eGFR slope was independently associated with kidney failure in those without CKD, and with heart failure in those with CKD. However, it is unlikely to have major relevance for clinical practice when the current eGFR and albuminuria status are known.

Ginsenoside Compound K Ameliorates Development of Diabetic Kidney Disease through Inhibiting TLR4 Activation Induced by Microbially Produced Imidazole Propionate

Diabetic kidney disease (DKD) is a common and devastating complication in diabetic patients, which is recognized as a large and growing problem leading to end-stage kidney disease. As dietary-mediated therapies are gradually becoming more acceptable to patients with DKD, we planned to find active compounds on preventing DKD progression from dietary material. The present paper reports the renoprotective properties and underlying mechanisms of ginsenoside compound K (CK), a major metabolite in serum after oral administration of ginseng. CK supplementation for 16 weeks could improve urine microalbumin, the ratio of urinary albumin/creatinine and renal morphological abnormal changes in db/db mice. In addition, CK supplementation reshaped the gut microbiota by decreasing the contents of Bacteroides and Paraprevotella and increasing the contents of Lactobacillu and Akkermansia at the genus level, as well as reduced histidine-derived microbial metabolite imidazole propionate (IMP) in the serum. We first found that IMP played a significant role in the progression of DKD through activating toll-like receptor 4 (TLR4). We also confirmed CK supplementation can down-regulate IMP-induced protein expression of the TLR4 signaling pathway in vivo and in vitro. This study suggests that dietary CK could offer a better health benefit in the early intervention of DKD. From a nutrition perspective, CK or dietary material containing CK can possibly be developed as new adjuvant therapy products for DKD.

Dapagliflozin and Prevention of Kidney Disease Among Patients With Type 2 Diabetes: Post Hoc Analyses From the DECLARE-TIMI 58 Trial

OBJECTIVE

In patients with moderate to severe albuminuric kidney disease, sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors reduce the risk of kidney disease progression. These post hoc analyses assess the effects of dapagliflozin on kidney function decline in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D), focusing on populations with low kidney risk.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

In the Dapagliflozin Effect on Cardiovascular Events-Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction 58 (DECLARE-TIMI 58) trial, patients with T2D at high cardiovascular risk were randomly assigned to dapagliflozin versus placebo. Outcomes were analyzed by treatment arms, overall, and by Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) risk categories. The prespecified kidney-specific composite outcome was a sustained decline ≥40% in the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) to <60 mL/min/1.73 m2, end-stage kidney disease, and kidney-related death. Other outcomes included incidence of categorical eGFR decline of different thresholds and chronic (6 month to 4 year) or total (baseline to 4 year) eGFR slopes.

RESULTS

Most participants were in the low-moderate KDIGO risk categories (n = 15,201 [90.3%]). The hazard for the kidney-specific composite outcome was lower with dapagliflozin across all KDIGO risk categories (P-interaction = 0.97), including those at low risk (hazard ratio [HR] 0.54, 95% CI 0.38-0.77). Risks for categorical eGFR reductions (≥57% [in those with baseline eGFR ≥60 mL/min/1.73 m2], ≥50%, ≥40%, and ≥30%) were lower with dapagliflozin (HRs 0.52, 0.57, 0.55, and 0.70, respectively; P < 0.05). Slopes of eGFR decline favored dapagliflozin across KDIGO risk categories, including the low KDIGO risk (between-arm differences of 0.87 [chronic] and 0.55 [total] mL/min/1.73 m2/year; P < 0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

Dapagliflozin mitigated kidney function decline in patients with T2D at high cardiovascular risk, including those with low KDIGO risk, suggesting a role of dapagliflozin in the early prevention of diabetic kidney disease.

Urinary Epidermal Growth Factor: A Promising "Next Generation" Biomarker in Kidney Disease

BACKGROUND

The epidermal growth factor (EGF) is a globular protein that is generated in the kidney, especially in the loop of Henle and the distal convoluted tubule. While EGF is nonexistent or hardly detectable in plasma, it is present in normal people's urine. Until now, risk stratification and chronic kidney disease (CKD) diagnosis have relied on estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and urine albumin/creatinine ratio (uACR), both of which reflect glomerular function or impairment. Tubular dysfunction, on the other hand, may also be associated with renal failure.

SUMMARY

Because decreased urine EGF (uEGF) indicates tubular atrophy and interstitial fibrosis, this biomarker, together with eGFR and uACR, may be employed in the general population for risk assessment and diagnosis of CKD. uEGF levels have been shown to correlate with intrarenal EGF mRNA expression and have been found to decrease in a variety of glomerular and non-glomerular kidney disorders.

KEY MESSAGE

uEGF, uEGF/creatinine, or uEGF/monocyte chemotactic peptide-1 are possible "new generation" biomarkers linked to a variety of kidney diseases that deserve further investigation as a single biomarker or as part of a multi-biomarker panel.

Glomerular filtration rate as a kidney outcome of diabetic kidney disease: a focus on new antidiabetic drugs

Diabetes has reached epidemic proportions, both in Korea and worldwide and is associated with an increased risk of chronic kidney disease and kidney failure (KF). The natural course of kidney function among people with diabetes (especially type 2 diabetes) may be complex in real-world situations. Strong evidence from observational data and clinical trials has demonstrated a consistent association between decreased estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and subsequent development of hard renal endpoints (such as KF or renal death). The disadvantage of hard renal endpoints is that they require a long follow-up duration. In addition, there are many patients with diabetes whose renal function declines without the appearance of albuminuria, measurement of the eGFR is emphasized. Many studies have used GFR-related parameters, such as its change, decline, or slope, as clinical endpoints for kidney disease progression. In this respect, understanding the trends in GFR changes could be crucial for developing clinical management strategies for the prevention of diabetic complications. This review focuses on the clinical implication of the eGFR-related parameters that have been used so far in diabetic kidney disease. We also discuss the use of recently developed new antidiabetic drugs for kidney protection, with a focus on the GFR as clinical endpoints.

Treating Type 1 Diabetes by Pancreas Transplant Alone: A Cohort Study on Actual Long-term (10 Years) Efficacy and Safety

BACKGROUND

Physiologically regulated insulin secretion and euglycemia are achievable in type 1 diabetes (T1D) by islet or pancreas transplantation. However, pancreas transplant alone (PTA) remains a debated approach, with uncertainties on its relative benefits and risks. We determined the actual long-term (10 y) efficacy and safety of PTA in carefully characterized T1D subjects.

METHODS

This is a single-center, cohort study in 66 consecutive T1D subjects who received a PTA between April 2001 and December 2007, and were then all followed until 10 y since transplant. Main features evaluated were patient survival, pancreas graft function, C-peptide levels, glycemic parameters, and the function of the native kidneys.

RESULTS

Ten-year actual patient survival was 92.4%. Optimal (insulin independence) or good (minimal insulin requirement) graft function was observed in 57.4% and 3.2% of patients, respectively. Six (9.0%) patients developed stage 5 or 4 chronic kidney disease. In the remaining individuals bearing a successful PTA, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) decline per year was -2.29 ± 2.69 mL/min/1.73 m2. Reduction of eGFR at 1 y post-PTA was higher in those with pre-PTA hyperfiltration and higher HbA1c concentrations; eGFR changes afterward significantly correlated with diabetes duration. In recipients with normoglycemia at 10 y, 74% of normoalbuminuric or microalbuminuric subjects pre-PTA remained stable, and 26% progressed toward a worse stage; conversely, in 62.5% of the macroalbuminuric individuals albuminuria severity regressed.

CONCLUSIONS

These long-term effects of PTA on patient survival, graft function, and the native kidneys support PTA as a suitable approach to treat diabetes in selected T1D patients.

Diabetic kidney disease: new clinical and therapeutic issues. Joint position statement of the Italian Diabetes Society and the Italian Society of Nephrology on "The natural history of diabetic kidney disease and treatment of hyperglycemia in patients with type 2 diabetes and impaired renal function"

Aims

This joint document of the Italian Diabetes Society and the Italian Society of Nephrology reviews the natural history of diabetic kidney disease (DKD) in the light of the recent epidemiological literature and provides updated recommendations on anti-hyperglycemic treatment with non-insulin agents.

Data Synthesis

Recent epidemiological studies have disclosed a wide heterogeneity of DKD. In addition to the classical albuminuric phenotype, two new albuminuria-independent phenotypes have emerged, i.e., “nonalbuminuric renal impairment” and “progressive renal decline”, suggesting that DKD progression toward end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) may occur through two distinct pathways, albuminuric and nonalbuminuric. Several biomarkers have been associated with decline of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) independent of albuminuria and other clinical variables, thus possibly improving ESKD prediction. However, the pathogenesis and anatomical correlates of these phenotypes are still unclear. Also the management of hyperglycemia in patients with type 2 diabetes and impaired renal function has profoundly changed during the last two decades. New anti-hyperglycemic drugs, which do not cause hypoglycemia and weight gain and, in some cases, seem to provide cardiorenal protection, have become available for treatment of these individuals. In addition, the lowest eGFR safety thresholds for some of the old agents, particularly metformin and insulin secretagogues, have been reconsidered.

Conclusions

The heterogeneity in the clinical presentation and course of DKD has important implications for the diagnosis, prognosis, and possibly treatment of this complication. The therapeutic options for patients with type 2 diabetes and impaired renal function have substantially increased, thus allowing a better management of these individuals.

SGLT2 Inhibitors and Other Novel Therapeutics in the Management of Diabetic Kidney Disease

Over the past 40 years there has been a steady rise in the number of people with chronic kidney disease due mainly to a significant increase in the number of people with diabetic kidney disease (DKD). Current treatments (blood pressure control, blood sugar control, and renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system inhibitors) have had a significant impact on slowing progression of DKD. But the continued rise illustrates that there is a great need for new medications. Recently, a number of potentially reno-protective medicines have been studied. In this review, these new medications are discussed with respect to both their reported benefits and possible risks.

Long-term administration of tolvaptan ameliorates annual decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate in outpatients with chronic heart failure

Protective effects of tolvaptan against worsening renal function in acute heart failure have been shown. However, long-term effects of its agent on renal function remain to be elucidated. The present study investigated retrospectively whether long-term treatment with tolvaptan exerts renoprotective effects in patients with chronic heart failure, by comparing serial changes in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) for years before and after tolvaptan administration. From 63 outpatients with chronic heart failure taking diuretics including tolvaptan, 34 patients whose eGFR levels were continuously measured for more than 6 months both before and after administration of tolvaptan (average dose, 7.8 mg/day at the end of the follow-up period) were selected as eligible for the present analyses. All eGFR values were separately plotted before and after the initiation of treatment with tolvaptan (except hospitalization periods) along the time course axis and the slope of the linear regression curve was calculated as an annual change in eGFR. The mean follow-up periods before and after tolvaptan administration were 1197 and 784 days (3.3 and 2.1 years), respectively. Changing rates of eGFR per year were significantly ameliorated after treatment with tolvaptan (mean ± SD, - 8.02 ± 9.35 to - 1.62 ± 5.09 mL/min/1.73m² /year, P = 0.001). In echocardiographic parameters, inferior vena cava (IVC) diameter significantly decreased after tolvaptan administration, and the decrease in IVC diameter was correlated with the improvement of eGFR decline slope after administration of tolvaptan (P = 0.0075). This longitudinal observational study indicated that long-term treatment with tolvaptan ameliorated annual decline in eGFR in outpatients with chronic heart failure. Our findings suggest that tolvaptan has a protective effect against chronically worsening renal function in heart failure patients.

Indications for renal biopsy in patients with diabetes. Joint position statement of the Italian Society of Nephrology and the Italian Diabetes Society

AIMS

This joint document of the Italian Society of Nephrology and the Italian Diabetes Society reviews the main indications to perform a renal biopsy in diabetic patients, according to the recommendations of a panel of experts based on all available scientific evidence.

DATA SYNTHESIS

Renal biopsy has a pivotal role in assessing the nature and severity of renal injury in patients with diabetic kidney disease (DKD). The procedure is mandatory in the presence of one of more of the following features: rapid onset or progression of albuminuria or sudden onset of nephrotic syndrome, rapid GFR decline with or without albuminuria, hematuria, active urine sediment, clinical and/or laboratory suspicion of other systemic diseases, and, in patients with type 1 diabetes, short diabetes duration and absence of retinopathy. Indeed, ~40% of diabetic individuals with kidney injury undergoing renal biopsy are affected by a non-diabetic renal disease (NDRD). Furthermore, the histological evaluation of patients with suspected classical diabetic nephropathy allows to define the extent of glomerular, tubulo-interstitial and vascular lesions, thus providing important prognostic (and potentially therapeutic) data. In the future, the indications for renal biopsy might be extended to the definition of the histological lesions underlying the "nonalbuminuric" DKD phenotypes, as well as to the evaluation of the response to treatment with the new anti-hyperglycemic drugs that provide cardiorenal protection.

CONCLUSIONS

In view of the heterogeneous clinical presentation and course of DKD and of the related heterogeneous histopathological patterns, a more extensive use of renal biopsy may be crucial to provide valuable information with important pathogenic, diagnostic, prognostic, and therapeutic implications.

Urinary angiotensinogen antedates the development of stage 3 CKD in patients with type 1 diabetes mellitus

We examined if urinary angiotensinogen (uAOG), a marker of intrarenal renin‐angiotensin system activity, antedates stage 3 chronic kidney disease (CKD) using samples from participants in the Diabetes Control and Complications Trial (DCCT) and later in the Epidemiology of Diabetes Intervention and Complications (EDIC) trial. In a nested case–control design, cases were matched at the outcome visit (eGFR less than 60, 21‐59 mL/min per 1.73 m²) on age, gender, and diabetes duration, with controls: eGFR (95, 75‐119, mL/min per 1.73 m².) Additionally, in an exploratory analysis progressive renal decline (PRD), defined as eGFR loss >3.5 mL/min per 1.73m²/year, was evaluated using only data from EDIC because no progressions were observed during DCCT. At the EDIC visit, which antedated the GFR outcome visit by 2 years (range 1–7years) the median uAOG/creatinine was markedly higher in cases than in controls (13.9 vs. 3.8 ng/mg P = 0.003) whereas at the DCCT visit, which antedated the GFR outcome by 17 to 20 years it was not (2.75 vs. 3.16 ng/mg, respectively). The Odds Ratio for uAOG and CKD stage 3 development was significant after adjusting for eGFR, HbA1c, and systolic blood pressure 1.82 (1.00–3.29) but no longer significant when Albumin Excretion Ratio (AER) was included 1.21 (0.65–2.24).In the PRD analysis, uAOG/creatinine was sixfold higher in participants who experienced PRD than in those who did not (26 vs. 4.0 ng/mg, P = 0.003). The Odds Ratio for uAOG and PRD was significant after adjusting for eGFR, HbA1c, and systolic blood pressure 2.48 (1.46–4.22) but no longer significant when AER was included 1.32 (0.76–2.30). In people with type1 diabetes, a robust increase in uAOG antedates the development of stage 3 CKD but is not superior to AER in predicting this renal outcome. Increased uAOG moreover is associated with PRD, an index of progression to End Stage Kidney Disease (ESKD).

Predicting renal disease progression in a large contemporary cohort with type 1 diabetes mellitus

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

The aim of this study was to provide data from a contemporary population-representative cohort on rates and predictors of renal decline in type 1 diabetes.

METHODS

We used data from a cohort of 5777 people with type 1 diabetes aged 16 and older, diagnosed before the age of 50, and representative of the adult population with type 1 diabetes in Scotland (Scottish Diabetes Research Network Type 1 Bioresource; SDRNT1BIO). We measured serum creatinine and urinary albumin/creatinine ratio (ACR) at recruitment and linked the data to the national electronic healthcare records.

RESULTS

Median age was 44.1 years and diabetes duration 20.9 years. The prevalence of CKD stages G1, G2, G3 and G4 and end-stage renal disease (ESRD) was 64.0%, 29.3%, 5.4%, 0.6%, 0.7%, respectively. Micro/macroalbuminuria prevalence was 8.6% and 3.0%, respectively. The incidence rate of ESRD was 2.5 (95% CI 1.9, 3.2) per 1000 person-years. The majority (59%) of those with chronic kidney disease stages G3-G5 did not have albuminuria on the day of recruitment or previously. Over 11.6 years of observation, the median annual decline in eGFR was modest at -1.3 ml min-1 [1.73 m]-2 year-1 (interquartile range [IQR]: -2.2, -0.4). However, 14% experienced a more significant loss of at least 3 ml min-1 [1.73 m]-2. These decliners had more cardiovascular disease (OR 1.9, p = 5 × 10-5) and retinopathy (OR 1.3 p = 0.02). Adding HbA1c, prior cardiovascular disease, recent mean eGFR and prior trajectory of eGFR to a model with age, sex, diabetes duration, current eGFR and ACR maximised the prediction of final eGFR (r2 increment from 0.698 to 0.745, p < 10-16). Attempting to model nonlinearity in eGFR decline or to detect latent classes of decliners did not improve prediction.

CONCLUSIONS

These data show much lower levels of kidney disease than historical estimates. However, early identification of those destined to experience significant decline in eGFR remains challenging.

The effects of omega-3 fatty acids on diabetic nephropathy: A meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the effects of omega-3 long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acids on proteinuria, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and metabolic biomarkers among patients with diabetes.

STUDY DESIGN

Meta-analysis of randomized controlled clinical trials (RCTs).

SETTING & SUBJECTS

Patients with diabetes.

SELECTION CRITERIA FOR STUDIES

We conducted electronic searches in PubMed, Embase and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials from January 1960 to April 2019 to identify RCTs, which examined the effects of omega-3 fatty acids on proteinuria, eGFR and metabolic biomarkers among diabetic patients.

RESULTS

Ten RCTs with 344 participants were included in our meta-analysis. Omega-3 fatty acids reduced the amount of proteinuria among type 2 diabetes mellitus (type 2 DM) and type 1 diabetes mellitus (type 1 DM). This association was only significant among type 2 DM (SMD = -0.29 (95% CI: -0.54, -0.03; p = 0.03). Only studies with duration of intervention of 24 weeks or longer demonstrated a significant lower proteinuria among omega-3 fatty acids compared to control group (SMD = -0.30 (95% CI: -0.58, -0.02; p = 0.04). There was a higher eGFR for both type 1 and type 2 DM groups among omega-3 fatty acids compared to control group, however, the effect was not statistically significant. Regarding serum total cholesterol, LDL-cholesterol and HbA1C, there was no significant difference comparing omega-3 fatty acids to control group. There was a non-significant systolic blood pressure reduction in the omega-3 fatty acids supplementation group compared to control.

CONCLUSION

Omega-3 fatty acids could help ameliorate proteinuria among type 2 DM who received omega-3 supplementation for at least 24 weeks without adverse effects on HbA1C, total serum cholesterol and LDL-cholesterol.

Diabetic kidney disease: New clinical and therapeutic issues. Joint position statement of the Italian Diabetes Society and the Italian Society of Nephrology on "The natural history of diabetic kidney disease and treatment of hyperglycemia in patients with type 2 diabetes and impaired renal function"

AIMS

This joint document of the Italian Diabetes Society and the Italian Society of Nephrology reviews the natural history of diabetic kidney disease (DKD) in the light of the recent epidemiological literature and provides updated recommendations on anti-hyperglycemic treatment with non-insulin agents.

DATA SYNTHESIS

Recent epidemiological studies have disclosed a wide heterogeneity of DKD. In addition to the classical albuminuric phenotype, two new albuminuria-independent phenotypes have emerged, i.e., "nonalbuminuric renal impairment" and "progressive renal decline", suggesting that DKD progression toward end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) may occur through two distinct pathways, albuminuric and nonalbuminuric. Several biomarkers have been associated with decline of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) independent of albuminuria and other clinical variables, thus possibly improving ESKD prediction. However, the pathogenesis and anatomical correlates of these phenotypes are still unclear. Also the management of hyperglycemia in patients with type 2 diabetes and impaired renal function has profoundly changed during the last two decades. New anti-hyperglycemic drugs, which do not cause hypoglycemia and weight gain and, in some cases, seem to provide cardiorenal protection, have become available for treatment of these individuals. In addition, the lowest eGFR safety thresholds for some of the old agents, particularly metformin and insulin secretagogues, have been reconsidered.

CONCLUSIONS

The heterogeneity in the clinical presentation and course of DKD has important implications for the diagnosis, prognosis, and possibly treatment of this complication. The therapeutic options for patients with type 2 diabetes and impaired renal function have substantially increased, thus allowing a better management of these individuals.

Progressive Decline in Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate in Patients With Diabetes After Moderate Loss in Kidney Function-Even Without Albuminuria

OBJECTIVE

Persons with diabetes but no chronic kidney disease (CKD) and without albuminuria have the same age-related decline in kidney function as the background population. Whether this also applies following moderate loss in kidney function is unknown. We quantified the impact of albuminuria status on the development of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) trajectories following CKD stage 3 (CKD3) and assessed potential heterogeneous development patterns among the subgroup with normoalbuminuria.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We used repeated clinical measures during up to 16 years of follow-up in 935 persons with type 1 diabetes and 1,984 with type 2 diabetes. Trajectories of eGFR by diabetes type and albuminuria status following CKD3 were estimated with spline mixed-effects models with adjustment for relevant confounders. Latent class trajectory modeling was used to find distinct patterns of eGFR development in the subgroups with normoalbuminuria.

RESULTS

Mean annual declines in eGFR for normo-, micro- and macroalbuminuria the first 10 years following CKD3 were 1.9, 2.3, and 3.3 mL/min/1.73 m² in type 1 diabetes and 1.9, 2.1, and 3.0 in type 2 diabetes, respectively. For normoalbuminuria, two distinct eGFR patterns were found, one with accelerated declining eGFR levels. This specific progression pattern was associated with less use of lipid-lowering treatment, renin-angiotensin system blockers, and other antihypertensive treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results support a diabetes-dependent decline in kidney function without albuminuria following CKD3, with a subgroup showing a progressive decline. Furthermore, this group seems to be undertreated in terms of cardioprotective and renal protective treatment and suggests that increased attention should be drawn to normoalbuminuric diabetic kidney disease.

Non-albuminuric reduced eGFR phenotype in children and adolescents with type 1 diabetes

AIMS

To analyze the factors associated with non-albuminuric reduced estimated glomerular filtration rate (NAeGFR^-) phenotype in young people with type 1 diabetes (T1DM).

METHODS

In this cross-sectional study were enrolled 140 outpatient diabetic children (age 7-18 years), consecutively observed in the period 2016-2017. Eighteen subjects with microalbuminuria (defined as albumin excretion rate ≥ 30 mg/24 h) were excluded. Fasting HbA1_c, uric acid (UA), neutrophils and lymphocytes count were recorded. Estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was calculated using the Schwartz's bed-side formula and reduced eGFR was defined by a value <90 mL/min/1.73 m².

RESULTS

Out of 122 subjects analyzed, 76 (62%) showed normal eGFR and 46 (38%) showed NAeGFR^- phenotype. They were characterized by higher prevalence of male sex (57% vs 33%, p = 0.010), autoimmune diseases (26% vs 12%, p = 0.043), high UA levels (4.0 ± 0.9 vs 3.3 ± 0.9 mg/dl, p < 0.0001) and high Neutrophils/Lymphocytes ratio (1.5 [1.2-2.0] vs 1.3 [1.0-1.8], p = 0.023).

CONCLUSIONS

In our population, the prevalence on NAeGFR^- phenotype is 38% and it is associated with male sex, high levels of UA, presence of other autoimmune diseases and low-grade inflammation. It should encourage pediatricians to monitor early both eGFR and UA in order to intercept diabetic youth more likely prone to develop progressive renal impairment.

Biomarker panels associated with progression of renal disease in type 1 diabetes

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

We aimed to identify a sparse panel of biomarkers for improving the prediction of renal disease progression in type 1 diabetes.

METHODS

We considered 859 individuals recruited from the Scottish Diabetes Research Network Type 1 Bioresource (SDRNT1BIO) and 315 individuals from the Finnish Diabetic Nephropathy (FinnDiane) study. All had an entry eGFR between 30 and 75 ml min-1[1.73 m]-2, with those from FinnDiane being oversampled for albuminuria. A total of 297 circulating biomarkers (30 proteins, 121 metabolites, 146 tryptic peptides) were measured in non-fasting serum samples using the Luminex platform and LC electrospray tandem MS (LC-MS/MS). We investigated associations with final eGFR adjusted for baseline eGFR and with rapid progression (a loss of more than 3 ml min-1[1.73 m]-2 year-1) using linear and logistic regression models. Panels of biomarkers were identified using a penalised Bayesian approach, and their performance was evaluated through 10-fold cross-validation and compared with using clinical record data alone.

RESULTS

For final eGFR, 16 proteins and 30 metabolites or tryptic peptides showed significant association in SDRNT1BIO, and nine proteins and five metabolites or tryptic peptides in FinnDiane, beyond age, sex, diabetes duration, study day eGFR and length of follow-up (all at p < 10-4). The strongest associations were with CD27 antigen (CD27), kidney injury molecule 1 (KIM-1) and α1-microglobulin. Including the Luminex biomarkers on top of baseline covariates increased the r2 for prediction of final eGFR from 0.47 to 0.58 in SDRNT1BIO and from 0.33 to 0.48 in FinnDiane. At least 75% of the increment in r2 was attributable to CD27 and KIM-1. However, using the weighted average of historical eGFR gave similar performance to biomarkers. The LC-MS/MS platform performed less well.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

Among a large set of associated biomarkers, a sparse panel of just CD27 and KIM-1 contains most of the predictive information for eGFR progression. The increment in prediction beyond clinical data was modest but potentially useful for oversampling individuals with rapid disease progression into clinical trials, especially where there is little information on prior eGFR trajectories.

Ambivalence about the selection of cardiovascular risk stratification tools: Evidence in a type 1 diabetes population

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is one of the leading causes of death among people with diabetes, however, despite the increasing incidence of CVD, there are few tools for evaluating Cardiovascular Risk (CVR) in the population of patients with Type 1 Diabetes (T1D), with the existing ones diverging in the stratification of risk and in the suggestions for therapeutic conduct.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study was carried out with 104 participants diagnosed with T1D, aged 18-40, attending specialized services. The Steno Type 1 Risk Engine and the Cardiovascular Risk Stratification Calculator (CRSC) were used to assess the risk of a cardiovascular event over a 10-year period.

FINDINGS

Of the total sample selected, 62% were female, with a median age of 32 years (IQ 24; 43). There was a large difference between the stratification of CVR between the calculators, and 65.82% of the patients classified as low risk for CVD according to the Steno were identified as intermediate (30, 38.00%) and high risk (35.44%) by the CRSC. The analysis also highlighted a great difference in eligibility for statin use according to the risk stratification of the tools.

CONCLUSION

The CRSC and Steno tools evaluated and stratified the CVR of the same population with T1D, with there being divergence of the results. It was found that the CRSC tool classified the majority of the sample as high risk. Due to this result, the eligibility to use statins, which is one of the applications of these tools, showed great differences, with the Steno tool presenting less aggressive provisions regarding the prescription of statins in patients with type 1 DM.

Variations in Risk of End-Stage Renal Disease and Risk of Mortality in an International Study of Patients With Type 1 Diabetes and Advanced Nephropathy

OBJECTIVE

Patients with type 1 diabetes and diabetic nephropathy are targets for intervention to reduce high risk of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) and deaths. This study compares risks of these outcomes in four international cohorts.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

In the 1990s and early 2000s, Caucasian patients with type 1 diabetes with persistent macroalbuminuria in chronic kidney disease stages 1-3 were identified in the Joslin Clinic (U.S., 432), Finnish Diabetic Nephropathy Study (FinnDiane) (Finland, 486), Steno Diabetes Center Copenhagen (Denmark, 368), and INSERM (France, 232) and were followed for 3-18 years with annual creatinine measurements to ascertain ESRD and deaths unrelated to ESRD.

RESULTS

During 15,685 patient-years, 505 ESRD cases (rate 32/1,000 patient-years) and 228 deaths unrelated to ESRD (rate 14/1,000 patient-years) occurred. Risk of ESRD was associated with male sex; younger age; lower estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR); higher albumin/creatinine ratio, HbA_1c, and systolic blood pressure; and smoking. Risk of death unrelated to ESRD was associated with older age, smoking, and higher baseline eGFR. In adjusted analysis, ESRD risk was highest in Joslin versus reference FinnDiane (hazard ratio [HR] 1.44, P = 0.003) and lowest in Steno (HR 0.54, P < 0.001). Differences in eGFR slopes paralleled risk of ESRD. Mortality unrelated to ESRD was lowest in Joslin (HR 0.68, P = 0.003 vs. the other cohorts). Competing risk did not explain international differences in the outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite almost universal renoprotective treatment, progression to ESRD and mortality in patients with type 1 diabetes with advanced nephropathy are still very high and differ among countries. Finding causes of these differences may help reduce risk of these outcomes.

The effect of model selection on cost-effectiveness research: a comparison of kidney function-based microsimulation and disease grade-based microsimulation in chronic kidney disease modeling

BACKGROUND

Cost effectiveness research is emerging in the chronic kidney disease (CKD) research field. Especially, an individual-level state transition model (microsimulation) is widely used for these researches. Some researchers set CKD grades as discrete health states, and the transition probabilities between these states were dependent on the CKD grades (disease grade-based microsimulation, MSM-dg), while others set estimated glomerular filtration rate value which determines the severity of CKD as a main variable describing patients' continuous status (kidney function-based microsimulation, MSM-kf). MSM-kf seems to reflect the real world more precisely but is more difficult to implement. We compared the calculation results of these two microsimulation models to evaluate the effect of model selection on CKD cost-effectiveness analysis.

METHODS

We implemented simplified MSM-dg and MSM-kf emulating natural course of CKD in general, and compared models using parameters derived from an IgA nephropathy cohort. After checking these models' overall behavior, life-years, utilities, and thresholds regarding intervention costs below which the intervention is thought as dominant (V0) or cost-effective (V1) were calculated. In addition, one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed.

RESULTS

With base-case parameters, the calculated life-years was shorter in MSM-dg (73.89 vs. 75.80 years) while the thresholds were almost equal (86.87 vs. 90.43 (V0), 132.29 vs. 146.25 [V1 in 1000 USD]) compared to MSM-kf. Sensitivity analyses showed a tendency of the MSM-dg to show shorter results in life-years. V0 and V1 were distributed by approximately ±100,000 USD (V0) and ± 150,000 USD (V1) between models.

CONCLUSIONS

Estimated cost-effectiveness thresholds by both models were not the same and its difference distributed too wide to be ignored. This result indicated that model selection in CKD cost-effectiveness research has large effect on their conclusions.

Progression of diabetic kidney disease and trajectory of kidney function decline in Chinese patients with Type 2 diabetes

Diabetes is a major cause of end stage renal disease (ESRD), yet the natural history of diabetic kidney disease is not well understood. We aimed to identify patterns of estimated GFR (eGFR) trajectory and to determine the clinical and genetic factors and their associations of these different patterns with all-cause mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes. Among 6330 patients with baseline eGFR >60 ml/min per 1.73 m² in the Hong Kong Diabetes Register, a total of 456 patients (7.2%) developed Stage 5 chronic kidney disease or ESRD over a median follow-up of 13 years (incidence rate 5.6 per 1000 person-years). Joint latent class modeling was used to identify different patterns of eGFR trajectory. Four distinct and non-linear trajectories of eGFR were identified: slow decline (84.3% of patients), curvilinear decline (6.5%), progressive decline (6.1%) and accelerated decline (3.1%). Microalbuminuria and retinopathy were associated with accelerated eGFR decline, which was itself associated with all-cause mortality (odds ratio [OR] 6.9; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 5.6-8.4 for comparison with slow eGFR decline). Of 68 candidate genetic loci evaluated, the inclusion of five loci (rs11803049, rs911119, rs1933182, rs11123170, and rs889472) improved the prediction of eGFR trajectories (net reclassification improvement 0.232; 95% CI: 0.057--0.406). Our study highlights substantial heterogeneity in the patterns of eGFR decline among patients with diabetic kidney disease, and identifies associated clinical and genetic factors that may help to identify those who are more likely to experience an accelerated decline in kidney function.

Risk factors for decline in renal function among young adults with type 1 diabetes

AIMS

To investigate risk factors for declining renal function among subjects with type-1-diabetes.

METHODS

Observational study based on data from the diabetes registry DPV. 4424 type-1-diabetes subjects aged ≥18 years, age at onset <18 years were identified. Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) equation was used to estimate glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). Annual rate of renal decline was estimated for each patient using hierarchic linear regression models. Additional regression models were fitted to adjust for covariates.

RESULTS

Median age was 26 [Q1; Q3: 21; 39] years. Annual decline of renal function was -1.22 (95% CI: -1.50; -0.94) ml/min/1.73 m². At baseline, higher eGFR was related to more rapid decline compared to impaired or reduced eGFR (GFR ≥ 90: -2.06 (-2.35; -1.76), 60 ≤ GFR < 90: 0.45 (0.08; 0.81), GFR < 60: 0.52 (-0.24; 1.29) ml/min/1.73 m², p < 0.01). During follow-up, the highest decline was associated with reduced renal function, whereas the lowest decline was related to normal kidney function (p < 0.01). Poor metabolic control (p = 0.04), hypertension (p < 0.01) and albuminuria (p = 0.03) were associated with more rapid loss of kidney function. No difference was observed among insulin regimen.

CONCLUSION

Among this large type-1-diabetes cohort, more rapid loss of kidney function was related to higher baseline eGFR, log-term worse metabolic control and diabetic comorbidities.

Risk Factors Associated With the Development of Nephropathy 10 Years After Diagnosis in Taiwanese Children With Juvenile-Onset Type 1 Diabetes-A Cohort Study From the CGJDES

Objective: To examine the risk factors for diabetic nephropathy (DN) 10 years after the diagnosis of juvenile-onset type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) in a Taiwanese population. Research Design and Methods: This retrospective, observational, longitudinal cohort study of 224 patients with T1DM for >10 years (mean duration 12.6 years) included participants from the Chang Gung Juvenile Diabetes Eye Study Group. The patients received a T1DM diagnosis before the age of 18 years and were treated at the pediatric endocrine department of Chang Gung Memorial Hospital in Taiwan. The epidemiological and laboratory data such as age, sex, duration of diabetes, self-reported smoking, blood pressure, lipid profiles, urinalysis, and glycated hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) levels were collected from medical records retrospectively for investigating the relationship between the clinical parameters and the development of DN in T1DM. Results: During follow-up, 44 of the 224 patients (19.6%) developed DN, of whom 61.4% were female. Cox proportional hazards model analysis indicated that the female (HR 3.40, 95% CI 1.66-6.96, p = 0.001), smoking (HR 3.60, 95% CI 1.28-10.10, p = 0.015), HbA1c level (HR 1.27, 95% CI 1.07-1.49, p = 0.005), diastolic blood pressure (HR 1.06, 95% CI 1.03-1.09, p < 0.001) were significantly correlated with DN after adjustment for multiple variables. The tight glucose control with multiple daily injections produced 49 % risk reduction (HR 0.51, 95% CI 0.26-0.98, p = 0.043). Conclusions: The risk of DN in patients with juvenile-onset T1DM 10 years after the T1DM diagnosis was increased with female, smoking, high HbA1c, diastolic blood pressure levels and attenuated by intensive therapy.

Decline of kidney function during the pre-dialysis period in chronic kidney disease patients: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Purpose

Substantial heterogeneity exists in reported kidney function decline in pre-dialysis chronic kidney disease (CKD). By design, kidney function decline can be studied in CKD 3–5 cohorts or dialysis-based studies. In the latter, patients are selected based on the fact that they initiated dialysis, possibly leading to an overestimation of the true underlying kidney function decline in the pre-dialysis period. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to compare the kidney function decline during pre-dialysis in CKD stage 3–5 patients, in these two different study types.

Patients and methods

We searched PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science and Cochrane to identify eligible studies reporting an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) decline (mL/min/1.73 m²) in adult pre-dialysis CKD patients. Random-effects meta-analysis was performed to obtain weighted mean annual eGFR decline.

Results

We included 60 studies (43 CKD 3–5 cohorts and 17 dialysis-based studies). The meta-analysis yielded a weighted annual mean (95% CI) eGFR decline during pre-dialysis of 2.4 (95% CI: 2.2, 2.6) mL/min/1.73 m² in CKD 3–5 cohorts compared to 8.5 (95% CI: 6.8, 10.1) in dialysis-based studies (difference 6.0 [95% CI: 4.8, 7.2]).

Conclusion

To conclude, dialysis-based studies report faster mean annual eGFR decline during pre-dialysis than CKD 3–5 cohorts. Thus, eGFR decline data from CKD 3–5 cohorts should be used to guide clinical decision making in CKD patients and for power calculations in randomized controlled trials with CKD progression during pre-dialysis as the outcome.

Biomarkers of diabetic kidney disease

Diabetic kidney disease (DKD) remains one of the leading causes of reduced lifespan in diabetes. The quest for both prognostic and surrogate endpoint biomarkers for advanced DKD and end-stage renal disease has received major investment and interest in recent years. However, at present no novel biomarkers are in routine use in the clinic or in trials. This review focuses on the current status of prognostic biomarkers. First, we emphasise that albuminuria and eGFR, with other routine clinical data, show at least modest prediction of future renal status if properly used. Indeed, a major limitation of many current biomarker studies is that they do not properly evaluate the marginal increase in prediction on top of these routinely available clinical data. Second, we emphasise that many of the candidate biomarkers for which there are numerous sporadic reports in the literature are tightly correlated with each other. Despite this, few studies have attempted to evaluate a wide range of biomarkers simultaneously to define the most useful among these correlated biomarkers. We also review the potential of high-dimensional panels of lipids, metabolites and proteins to advance the field, and point to some of the analytical and post-analytical challenges of taking initial studies using these and candidate approaches through to actual clinical biomarker use.

Markers of early progressive renal decline in type 2 diabetes suggest different implications for etiological studies and prognostic tests development

To identify determinants of early progressive renal decline in type 2 diabetes a range of markers was studied in 1032 patients enrolled into the 2nd Joslin Kidney Study. eGFR slopes estimated from serial measurements of serum creatinine during 5-12 years of follow-up were used to define early renal decline. At enrollment, all patients had normal eGFR, 58% had normoalbuminuria and 42% had albuminuria. Early renal decline developed in 6% and in 18% patients, respectively. As determinants, we examined baseline values of clinical characteristics, circulating markers: TNFR1, KIM-1, and FGF23, and urinary markers: albumin, KIM-1, NGAL, MCP-1, EGF (all normalized to urinary creatinine) and the ratio of EGF to MCP-1. In univariate analysis, all plasma and urinary markers were significantly associated with risk of early renal decline. When analyzed together, systolic blood pressure, TNFR1, KIM-1, the albumin to creatinine ratio, and the EGF/MCP-1 ratio remained significant with the latter having the strongest effect. Integration of these markers into a multi-marker prognostic test resulted in a significant improvement of discriminatory performance of risk prediction of early renal decline, compared with the albumin to creatinine ratio and systolic blood pressure alone. However, the positive predictive value was only 50% in albuminuric patients. Thus, markers in plasma and urine indicate that the early progressive renal decline in Type 2 diabetes has multiple determinants with strong evidence for involvement of tubular damage. However, new, more informative markers are needed to develop a better prognostic test for such decline that can be used in a clinical setting.

Fast renal decline to end-stage renal disease: an unrecognized feature of nephropathy in diabetes

A new model of diabetic nephropathy in type 1 diabetes emerged from our studies of Joslin Clinic patients. The dominant feature is progressive renal decline, not albuminuria. This decline is a unidirectional process commencing while patients have normal renal function and, in the majority, progressing steadily (linearly) to end-stage renal disease (ESRD). While an individual's rate of renal decline is constant, the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) slope varies widely among individuals from -72 to -3.0 ml/min/year. Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes guidelines define rapid progression as rate of eGFR declines > 5 ml/min/year, a value exceeded by 80% of patients in Joslin's type 1 diabetes ESRD cohort. The extraordinary range of slopes within the rapid progression category prompted us to partition it into "very fast," "fast" and "moderate" decline. We showed, for the first time, that very fast and fast decline from normal eGFR to ESRD within 2 to 10 years constitutes 50% of the Joslin cohort. In this review we present data about frequency of fast decliners in both diabetes types, survey some mechanisms underlying fast renal decline, discuss methods of identifying patients at risk and comment on the need for effective therapeutic interventions. Whether the initiating mechanism of fast renal decline affects glomerulus, tubule, interstitium or vasculature is unknown. Since no animal model mimics progressive renal decline, studies in humans are needed. Prospective studies searching for markers predictive of the rate of renal decline yield findings that may make detection of fast decliners feasible. Identifying such patients will be the foundation for developing effective individualized methods to prevent or delay onset of ESRD in diabetes.

Improved clinical trial enrollment criterion to identify patients with diabetes at risk of end-stage renal disease

Design of Phase III trials for diabetic nephropathy currently requires patients at a high risk of progression defined as within three years of a hard end point (end-stage renal disease, 40% loss of estimated glomerular filtration rate, or death). To improve the design of these trials, we used natural history data from the Joslin Kidney Studies of chronic kidney disease in patients with diabetes to develop an improved criterion to identify such patients. This included a training cohort of 279 patients with type 1 diabetes and 134 end points within three years, and a validation cohort of 221 patients with type 2 diabetes and 88 end points. Previous trials selected patients using clinical criteria for baseline urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio and estimated glomerular filtration rate. Application of these criteria to our cohort data yielded sensitivities (detection of patients at risk) of 70-80% and prognostic values of only 52-63%. We applied classification and regression trees analysis to select from among all clinical characteristics and markers the optimal prognostic criterion that divided patients with type 1 diabetes according to risk. The optimal criterion was a serum tumor necrosis factor receptor 1 level over 4.3 ng/ml alone or 2.9-4.3 ng/ml with an albumin-to-creatinine ratio over 1900 mg/g. Remarkably, this criterion produced similar results in both type 1 and type 2 diabetic patients. Overall, sensitivity and prognostic value were high (72% and 81%, respectively). Thus, application of this criterion to enrollment in future clinical trials could reduce the sample size required to achieve adequate statistical power for detection of treatment benefits.